we have found some tape in the archives that may take this fight in a whole new direction as of tomorrow. we have got that type that i think nobody has seen in at least a decade, and we've got that story as our lead tomorrow night. we've got that incredible tape for you form night. please be here tomorrow night. good morning, everyone, i'm lynn berry. those stories and more are straight ahead. this is "first look" on msnbc.

and we're going to begin this morning with issue number one. election-year polls have shown there is no bigger concern on the minds of american voters than the economy, meaning every economic update between now and november is critical on the campaign trail. well, today the government releases monthly jobs data for july, and if experts are correct, it may not be good news for president obama. nbc's brian mooar has the latest from washington. brian, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, lynn. last month's jobs numbers came in lower than expected, and right now, the obama administration cannot afford disappointments. analysts are predicting the u.s. economy added 100,000 jobs last month. >> that's not great and won't bring down the unemployment rate below 8%, which the president wants, but it would indicate that the economy is not slipping back into recession. >> reporter: there are only three more jobs reports left before an election in which jobs and the economy may decide who gets the job of president.

>> the middle class is hurting. i'm going to change that, get more jobs and more take-home pay. >> we've been able to create 4.5 million jobs, and 500,000 jobs in manufacturing, and we saved an auto industry. >> reporter: but that's little comfort to those unemployed and still searching. >> i've been unemployed since september, last september, so i've just been searching for a job ever since. >> reporter: in arkansas, hawker beechcraft announced it's laying off 170 workers. in alabama, a new auto parts supplier will be hiring, but not until next year. >> 110 new jobs for this area comparatively is just as significant as 1,000 jobs in a large city. >> reporter: an economy stuck in low gear, sputtering but still moving ahead. the november jobs report comes out just four days before the election. lynn? >> all right, brian mooar for us in washington.

brian, thanks. elsewhere, the u.s. treasury department is under fire and fighting to maintain public trust after handing out billions of dollars to criminals. according to a startling government audit, the internal revenue service may have delivered more than $5 billion in 2011 refund checks to identity thieves. and federal investigators say $21 billion more could make its way into scammers' pockets over the next five years. the audit did find that the irs tracked down 940,000 fraudulent tax returns from 2011, including one address in michigan that was used to file more than 2,000 separate claims, but an estimated 1.5 million phony claims went under the radar. well, kofi annan, the united nations peace envoy to syria, has resigned his post. annan blasted the syrian government for not cooperating on the u.n.-sponsor ed cease-fie and peace plan to end the civil

war. he says it's cleared that president bashar al assad must leave office and also blamed the syrian rebels' increased militarization and a divided u.n. security council for his failed efforts. meanwhile, "the new york times" reports syrian rebels are fighting with heavy weapons captured from assad's own forces, including helicopter gunships, fighter jets and tanks. rebels used those tanks to attack a military base near aleppo. the report says assad's advanced weaponry was designed to battle a foreign enemy such as israel and not for a civil conflict. well, to colorado now, where there is new information and new questions about how much the people around accused movie theater gunman james holmes knew about his mental state. holmes dropped out of a ph.d program at the university of colorado just weeks before the shooting rampage that killed 12 and injured 58. nbc's mike teaibbi has that story. >> reporter: before james holmes quit his neuroscience ph.d

program, he was being treated by dr. lynn fenton, a university of colorado psychiatrist. by then, mid-june, police say he had already begun assembling an arsenal of four guns like these full of tactical gear and 6,000 rounds of ammunition. were there warning signs he was unraveling? there have been unconfirmed reports that dr. fenton talked about holmes to the beta team, the behavioral evaluation and threat assessment team that handles concerns about individuals who may be threatening, disruptive or otherwise problematic. but even though campus police are part of the b.e.t.a. team, no apparent move was used to impose a 72-hour mental evaluation on holmes, as is available under colorado law. >> when an individual is deemed to be of imminent danger to others, they could be involuntarily committed against their will and frequently against their wishes. >> reporter: a campus police source told nbc news that enforcing an involuntary mental health hold is a gray area, and

psychiatrists who hear lots of disturbing talks from patients agree. >> i think they tend to err on the side of personal rights. so, if the person is able to convince them that they're not being dangerous at that moment in time, they typically don't hospitalize them. >> reporter: university of colorado chancellor don elliman's reaction -- "i believe until it's been demonstrated otherwise that our people did what they should have done." no comment from dr. fenton. and judge william sylvester has ordered a hearing next week into how much, if anything, about her contacts with james holmes, five weeks and more before the massacre, will ever be made public. mike taibbi, nbc news, los angeles. all right, now let's get a check of your national weather with nbc meteorologist bill karins. he has your weather channel forecast. it's all about ernesto, isn't it? >> yeah. i have way too many questions and not enough answers, and that makes me frustrated, as well as everyone else, but these storms are at least a week away from affecting the u.s., if it ever does, and that's why we still

have tons of time to watch this. let me show you the latest from the national hurricane center, just updated their forecast over the last 15 minutes or so. this storm does not look very impressive this morning. it's now heading over top of or getting near st. lucia and barbados. the storm will be heading into the caribbean. so the chances of this storm doing a swing-and-miss into the open atlantic is about zero. the question is, what will the intensity of the storm be? is it going to fall apart over the next two days? if it can maintain its strength as it is now, which is a very weak tropical storm, only 45-mile-per-hour winds, but it's flying to the west. it's actually almost moving too fast for it to develop any stronger. if it can survive the next two days, that's when we're going to start to see some issues. now, here's why. here's the forecast over the next five days from the hurricane center. south of areas around hispaniola and haiti, dominican republic, south of cuba and also near jamaica, and then by wednesday, the middle of next week, somewhere possibly here just off of florida or as far south as belize or near cancun, and it should be increasing in strength

over the warm waters of the western portions of the caribbean, and of course, the warm waters of the gulf of mexico. that's why everyone from texas to florida has their eyes on this storm. this is a path that has potential impacts in the united states. our computer models do take it as far north here as just off of florida or as far south here as belize. that's why the hurricane center is pinpointing somewhere near cancun five days in advance. as far as the forecast back home here today, 112 yesterday in oklahoma city. we'll quote/unquote cool you off today to 109. still another very, very hot day in the drought-stricken middle of the country and for everyone on the eastern seaboard, we're starting to get a taste of the heat and humidity, 90 from boston to florida. >> we can feel it, too. bill, thank you so much. well, clothing sales soared, controversy pays off for chick-fil-a and "the jersey shore's" resident deejay cashes in. your look at business headlines is straight ahead. ryan dempster makes hits rangers debut since he his red-hot, late-inning dramatics

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welcome back to "first look." i'm lynn berry and here are some of the top stories making news this morning. the federal aviation administration is investigating that close call at reagan national airport on tuesday involving three commuter jets on a collision course. well, the faa says they were closer than allowed by regulations, but none of those planes were ever headed directly for one of the others. on capitol hill, senate republicans blocked a bill intended to improve u.s. computer defenses. the cyber security bill failed to get the 60 votes needed and was defeated 52-46, largely along party lines. at least one person was killed when a double-decker megabus blew a tire and then slammed right into an illinois interstate bridge support pillar. more than two dozen people were injured in that accident. in taiwan, a man was killed in just a disturbing incident. this was all caught on video as

a road collapsed beneath him. officials said the road's foundations had been washed away by floodwaters from the typhoon. and despite a dust storm, nasa says the mars "curiosity" rover is still on schedule for a sunday night landing on the red planet. the landing will require a dazzling sequence of maneuvers all done automatically by the most advanced scientific gear ever used on mars. it's pretty cool. all right, now, here's your "first look" at this morning's dish of "scrambled politics." the 2012 election is on track to be the most expensive in american history. the non-partisan center for responsive politics estimates that spending in the presidential and congressional elections may hit $5.8 billion, an increase of 7% from 2008. house speaker john boehner attacked president obama's own jobs report in a fox news radio interview. boehner said "he's never even

had a real job, for god sakes, and i can tell you from my dealings with him, he has no idea how the real world that we actually live in works." senate majority leader harry reid again said he was told that republican candidate mitt romney "has not paid taxes for ten years." in a statement, reid says he was told that by an extremely credible source. meanwhile, mitt romney responded in an interview on a fox news radio show, saying "it's time for harry to put up or shut up." then reid responded to romney, saying "as a presidential candidate, it's his obligation to put up by releasing his tax returns." filmmaker michael moore says he wouldn't describe himself as an obama supporter because of some u.s. policies like u.s. drone strikes in pakistan, but moore says "i will vote for him." and president obama told supporters at a campaign rally in florida that for his birthday wish saturday, he'll ask for the state's 29 electoral votes. mr. obama said he turns 51

tomorrow, but "michelle says i look 50." and that's your morning dish of "scrambled politics." and now here's your first look at how wall street's going to kick off the day. the dow opens at 12,878 after falling 92 points yesterday. both the s&p and nasdaq each lost ten. taking a look at overseas trading this morning, in tokyo, the nikkei sank 98 points, while in hong kong, the hang seng was down 24. well, investors worldwide were underwhelmed by promises from the head of the european central bank to fix the eurozone's debt woes. stocks in the u.s. and europe fell on what many considered to be a plan that lacked specifics. as we reported, the monthly jobs report comes out today on news the four-week average for jobless claims fell for the sixth week in a row. a trade group says retail sales were up more than 4.5% in july from the same time last year. well, chick-fil-a is taking controversy all the way to the

bank. the fast-food chain set a one-day sales record after its chick-fil-a appreciation day, a response to boycotts after chick-fil-a's president spoke out against same-sex marriage. shares in linkedin were up nearly 7% after the bell, thanks to faster-than-expected growth in revenue. monster worldwide saw its stock plunge to a record low. its third-quarter forecast came in way below expectations. knight capital is fighting for its life after a crippling software glitch cost the company $440 million in trading losses. shares took a 63% nose-dive on thursday. well, aig is okay. reported earnings more than double what the street expected. taxpayers still own most of aig. apple's lawsuit against samsung over iphone and ipad technology has taken a new twist. apple now wants the judge to go around the jury and rule in its favor. this after samsung leaked

confidential information to the media. and finally, were you worried "jersey shore's" pauly d. would be hard up for cash whenever he leaves seaside heights? you probably weren't worried, but in case you were, forbes reports his skills as a deejay net him $11 million a year. so, he'll be just fine. well, coming up, red sox get hung up to dry, the giants fall hard and the padres see red. plus, the rangers get off to a rocky start, but it's the angels who had their wings clipped. your first look at sports is straight ahead. you're watching "first look" on msnbc. ♪ i want to go ♪ i want to win [ breathes deeply ] ♪ this is where the dream begins ♪ ♪ i want to grow ♪ i want to try ♪ i can almost touch the sky [ male announcer ] even the planet has an olympic dream. dow is proud to support that dream by helping provide greener, more sustainable solutions from the olympic village to the stadium.

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welcome back to "first look." i'm lynn berry. and in sports, it was a tough night for rangers newcomer ryan dempster, but remarkably, his team was able to make a comeback against the angels. here's nbc's mario solis. >> good morning. ryan dempster made his rangers debut, and it didn't exactly go as planned. to arlington, texas, the angels jump on dempster in the first. mark triumumbull with his team-leading 20th of the year. angels up 2-0. rangers come storming back, rocking c.j. wilson in the second. michael young capping off a five-run inning with an rbi single against his former mate. angels rally to tie it at eight, but they don't have enough left in the tank. rangers tack on seven more runs. dempster gives up eight in his debut, but it doesn't matter. texas wins 15-9. what has gotten into the reds? overnight they've gone from a

good team in the national league to the best team in baseball. todd frasier gets the route started with a home run. cinci goes on to score sixth in the second inning against the padres. they have now won 20 out of 23 since the all-star break. reds win again 9-4. red sox are the classic example of one step forward and two steps back. seems like every time they string together some wins, they end up losing two or three in a row. twins manufacturing runs all game long in boston. the sox are now just a game out of last place in the a.l. east. twinkies win 5-0. the mets' cedeno was a one-man wrecking crew in san francisco. you know things are going well when you hit it straight to the outfielder and it drops in, the start of a big day for ronny. to the seventh, cedeno with a big shot to the gap, in come two more runs. they win 9-1. finally, how about a walk-off? indians and royals tied at 6-6 in the 11th. two on for escobar. game over. the first walk-off of his

career. royals win their third in a row in dramatic fashion, 7-6 in 11. and that's your first look at sports. i'm mario solis. well, now for another look at the weather, let's check back with meteorologist bill karins. he has that weather channel forecast. good morning. >> our first real threat of the hurricane season. this storm is ernesto, got that name yesterday, and it's in the position where it's not going to just go away. it looks like if it maintains its strength over the next two days, it could possibly increase to a hurricane, our first one of the season. by the time we get to probably monday or tuesday of next week, maybe somewhere near jamaica. it's when it gets over the warm waters the middle of next week, western caribbean or southern gulf of mexico, that's when storms typically begin to more rapidly increase and the environment's little more favorable for a stronger storm. so, if it does get there and get into this region, it's a big uh-oh for a lot of areas, including cancun, western sections of cuba, and then of course, everywhere in the united states' southern gulf coast, and at this point, we haven't eliminated anyone from florida

to texas. we'll do that over the next couple days. stay with us there this this weekend, get prepared just in case. you should have that anyway. as far as today, warm throughout much of the country, 80s and 90. still baking, 106 in dallas today, 109 around oklahoma city. as we go throughout your weekend forecast, finally some cooler air and a cold front, a strong one's going to come down through the northern plains. notice minneapolis, 82. but of course, when these cold fronts hit the warm air mass, we're going to get thunderstorms this weekend, a lot of them, too. kansas city, chicago, st. louis, watch out saturday into indianapolis. of course, this is where the drought is, so we need the rain, too, and then by the time we get to sunday, that cold front's going to try to make its way through areas, say ohio, pittsburgh, buffalo, and eventually into the northeast with some thunderstorms. so we're going to be dodging thunderstorms this weekend. but notice kansas city, 87 degrees on sunday? >> ooh. >> people are going to be running around with like jackets on. >> exactly. turn the heat up! all right, bill, thank you so much. all right, did you hear about this? olympic swimmer ryan lochte's mom has dished on his love life,

and things got a little bit awkward. plus, it's deja vu at the box office, as an arnold schwarzenegger classic gets a total revamp. your look at entertainment is straight ahead. you're watching "first look." choose to do. you do what you do... because it matters. at hp we don't just believe in the power of technology. we believe in the power of people when technology works for you. to dream. to create. to work. if you're going to do something. make it matter. with the azerbaijani wrestling team. ♪ can febreze air effects defeat the smelly air in their gym for good? [ man ] what can you smell? [ inhales deeply ] a lot of flowers. it's on the zingy side of floral. potpourri factory, maybe. you can take off your blindfolds now.

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welcome back to "first look." time now for a little entertainment news. are you ready for the movies? >> let's go. >> can a sci-fi action remake dethrone "the dark knight rises"? colin ferrell is an assassin in "total recall," a reboot of the 1990 arnold schwarzenegger film. i say it so convincingly, don't i? so far, it's received mostly negative debuts but still should

debut in the $30 million range. "diary of a wimpy kid "dog days" is based on the best-selling book series that bill has every single book of. >> i'm way too young to watch this. >> ticket sales should put it somewhere in the $15 million to $17 million range. and still, "the dark knight rises" is poised to nab the third straight weekend win, expected to take in $35 million or more. elsewhere, various reports say recently divorced katy perry has been seen out and about with musician john mayer. that's going to end badly. all right, sorry, ladies, olympic swimmer ryan lochte doesn't have time for a girlfriend. >> he's training. >> earlier this week, lochte's mother told today.com that instead, "he goes out on one-night stands." all right, i'm going to go out on a limb here and say this is sort of lost in translation. this is a mom moment, right? where she probably meant, like -- >> yeah, just dates -- >> one-night date? we may need to send like a

thesaurus out there of that, actually. >> he is luke and darth vader all of a sudden. so many people have turned on lochte, it's insane. >> i'm not going to go there. well, i'm lynn berry. this is "first look" on msnbc. stay tuned. "way too early with willie geist" starts right now. . mitt romney tells harry reid to put up or shot up. who knows a guy who said mitt romney paid zero taxes for years. the question is will all of this chatter over his tax returns eventually force romney to release them? in syria, a frustrated kofi anan. the question is, if the u.n. is out of the picture, who else can step in to stop the violence. and finally, they call her the flying squirrel. the 4'11", 16 jld gabby douglas puts on the performance of her life, beating out the russians to become the first african-american to win a