one week later. what have we learned? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm michael smerconish in for chris matthews. leading off tonight, where's the bounce? a lot has happened in the week since paul ryan joined the romney ticket. conservatives are thrilled. energy is up. money is pouring in, but republicans are also gnashing their teeth over ryan's plans for medicare. and the expected poll bounce has been virtually nonexistent. and now we learn that the anti-stimulus crusader ryan, in

fact, asked for stimulus money for two companies. that's something he's consistently denied but yesterday was forced to concede the bottom point. bottom line is the veep pick working? also, mitt romney claimed he paid 13% in taxes each of the past five years. democrats say prove it. consider this. you probably make a lot less than romney and paid a lot more than 13% and this fight isn't going away. plus, is it swift boating 2012 style? a former group of navy s.e.a.l.s is trying to deny president obama credit for killing osama bin laden. where have we heard this kind of thing before? and paul ryan has always been a disciple and a supporter of ayn rand. the believer in the free market. why is he suddenly running in the other direction? and let me finish tonight with pennsylvania's last chance to hold a fair presidential election. we begin with whether mitt romney's choice of paul ryan is working. ed rendell was governor of pennsylvania and is now an msnbc political analyst. and nia-malika henderson is covering the campaign for "the

wall post." nearly a week after the mitt romney announced paul ryan as his running mate what effect has the congressman had on the race? after the choice was announced on saturday, a democratic operative suggested this narrative and i love it. listen to this. here's my prediction. the cycle of reaction will be exactly the one with palin. the press will say, wow, interesting. democrats, huh? press, he's so dynamic. what a boost of energy. republicans, what a great speech. the base loves it. democrats, uh-oh. republicans, the big m.o. has shifted our way. and the press, he's breathing new life, et cetera. then the democrats, but wait, there's more. press, hmm. republicans, uh-oh. nia-malika, where are we in that spectrum relative to paul ryan? >> you know, as i think the press were at the hmm phase and republicans are at the uh-oh phase, obviously we've got the speeches that are coming up at the convention a week from now. but yeah, obviously there is

more picking over ryan's record than we've seen out of the press lately. these reports about him taking stimulus funds for instance. and a lot of reaction from republicans who had this initial burst of excitement. you saw certainly from grassroots folks a lot of money pouring into the romney campaign. still there is a sense, i think, from republicans that maybe this boost of energy and this bold pick might not end up being worth it because of all the conversation now that we're having about the stimulus package, about medicare. because this was a campaign, let's face it. the republicans thought they could win just on the economy. what we see now we're talking about medicare. >> governor, i said before this was announced one thing that united conservatives was a desire that paul ryan be the pick. how are each looking at it now? >> first of all, i think it's a little bit too soon to say which way it cuts.

i agree with malika, not only has it been a disastrous week, but it's much worse than palin because it came on much faster. the reason it came on much faster, michael, is because the romney campaign was absolutely unprepared to answer the seminole question they should have known they were going to get. okay, governor. you've said during the primaries that you endorsed the ryan budget and the ryan medicare plan. do you still believe that? and of course you see governor romney backtracking. he hasn't been able to explain where he disagrees with the ryan budget. now recently he says he's for it 100%. two days ago he said there were some disagreements and it was his budget he was going to control. it's a mess. all we're talking about is medicare instead of the economy. all we're talking about is how the romney campaign screwed up again. it's brutal. and the stuff on stimulus, so unprepared. >> i'm going to get to both of those in just a moment. >> okay. >> let me show you some data. what kind of bounce did mitt

romney get from naming paul ryan from the ticket? a pretty small one compared to past candidates. now, "the new york times" nate silver said it netted the romney campaign about a point. going to past tickets, the average was closer to six points. so the net/net of this so far whether it's the medicare conversation, whether it's the stimulus now response seems to be, you know, nothing there that's discernible. >> right. although i think paul ryan will give a very good speech at the convention, because he's a good spinner and he doesn't necessarily cue to the truth. so i think he's going to give an effective speech at the convention. that may change a bit. but it's been a disaster because the one thing the romney campaign wanted to do is keep this on the economy. and again, the lack of preparation. how about congressman ryan. michael, if you'd read my book number one out of my top ten lists of politicians wussiness is when you don't vote for something and then try to take

credit for it. and i cited congressman ryan writing that letter to the department of energy. >> relative to stimulus funds. >> right. how could he not have known that? it's just shocking. >> governor, i'm not so sure that medicare thus far has been a net negative. i mean, it seems to me that the white house is a bit on the defensive. they've got this new campaign commercial as a matter of fact that i want you to show and dissect. today president obama released this ad defending his record. on medicare. see if it seems defensive. >> now mitt romney's attacking the president on medicare? the nonpartisan aarp says obama care cracks down on medicare fraud, waste, and abuse. and strengthens guaranteed benefits. and the ryan plan? aarp says it would undermine medicare and could lead to higher costs for seniors. and experts say ryan's voucher plan could raise future retiree's costs more than $6,000. get the facts. >> and the ad came days after

days of attacks from romney and ryan that president obama has robbed medicare of hundreds of billions of dollars. here was romney yesterday illustrating that point. >> i want to bring as much clarity as possible, so i prepared a small chart here. my plan presents no change. the plan stays the same. no adjustments, no changes, no savings. the president's plan cuts medicare -- excuse me. well, let's see. i got to erase -- there we go. by $716 billion. cut. >> nia-malika, it's an awfully complicated issue. who wins or who's winning thus far? >> well, i actually think the republicans are winning this fight. which in some ways, let's face it, these ads they put out, a lot of the political ads are propaganda. i think in this way they have very much won this war.

you have democrats on the defensive on of all things medicare. something that they have been the champions of and something that people are more readily identify democrats with than republicans. you saw republicans lose a race in upstate new york over this issue. they have since been able to reframe it and frame obama as someone who is stealing in medicare. in actuality it's slowing the cost of growth and saving money in medicare advantage. but you see there that republicans have been very, very smart in getting out on the offensive there around ryan's plan. and in some ways being able to separate mitt romney from paul ryan. who knows if it'll be effective down the line, if they're going to be able to keep this going. but so far so good. we'll see ryan in florida. i think he's going to be with his mom there coming across as somebody who of course why would he want to cut -- end medicare as we know it. he'll be there making that argument. so i think so far i would give the victory to republicans over

this week on medicare. >> governor, the other issue you've made reference to. "the boston globe" and other outlets reported that paul ryan trying to steer stimulus money to companies in his home state. ryan had called the stimulus a wasteful spending spree. on wednesday he was asked about that discrepancy. here's what he said. >> a report came out again today in the ap. it was a repeat of that wall street journal article from a couple of years ago where you had asked for stimulus money for your district. is that accurate? >> i don't recall. i haven't seen this report. so i really can't comment on it. i opposed the stimulus because it doesn't work. it didn't work. >> today congressman conceded he was wrong and he wrote after having these letters called to my attention i checked into them. and they were treated as constituent service requests in the same way matters involving associate security or veterans affairs are handled. this is why i didn't recall the letters earlier, but they should have been handled differently and i take full responsible for that. governor, i understand you call him out in your book about

wusses. apart from denying it and being held accountable because he was wrong, what's wrong with an elected official who opposes a program, doesn't get his way, and then on behalf of his constituents tries to bring home all the bacon he can? >> nothing. >> what's wrong with what happened here, michael, is that he lied about it. let me tell you, it is not constituent services when you write there secretary of energy and ask them for money for a program. he signs that letter himself. i guarantee you he reviewed it. i would never send a letter to the secretary of energy of the united states as governor without reading it and approving it myself. he looks like a fraud. and this is the guy who's supposed to be the honest young gun. he looks like a phony. there is nothing wrong. his defense should have been look guys, i was against stimulus. but it passed and if states were going to get money for economic development projects, i wanted wisconsin to get its fair share. that would have been the perfect answer.

michael, quickly on what malika said. >> on medicare. >> yeah. i agree the republicans have done okay in the short term but number one, democrats haven't been forceful enough. number one, congressman ryan kept the same $718 billion cut in medicare in the ryan budget. we should hang that around his neck. and number two, the difference of what the president wants to do. when the president cuts medicare, he's cutting it on the provider's side. most of those cuts were cuts to what the drug companies could make by supplying drugs to medicare. when the republicans make cuts to medicare, they're cutting it on the beneficiary side. we should drive that point home. and i believe we will as time goes on. >> governor rendell, malika, thank you so much for being on "hardball." coming up, mitt romney says that he's paid at least 13% in taxes in each of the past five years and he isn't planning to release any more of his returns. romney made far more money and paid a lower tax rate than most americans. and the fight over his tax returns, not going away. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

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i just have to say, given the challenges that america faces, 23 million people out of work, iran about to become nuclear, one out of six americans in poverty, the fascination with taxes i paid i find to be very small-minded compared to the broad issues that we face. but i did go back and look at my taxes and over the past ten years i never paid less than 13%. welcome back to "hardball." in that alleged effort to be candid, mitt romney opened up the issue of his tax returns anew. the obama campaign pounced. the campaign spokeswoman replied we have a simple message for him, prove it.

but today campaign manager jim messina sent a mass e-mail with addressed to his counterpart at the romney campaign with this deal, quote, if the governor will release five years of returns, i commit in turn we will not criticize him for not releasing more. romney campaign manager matt rhodes wasted no time in replying, hey, jim, thanks for the note. it is clear that president obama wants nothing more than to talk about governor romney's tax returns instead of issues that matter to voters like putting americans back to work, fixing the economy and reining in spending. will the obama campaign ever let romney shake the tax return story? and do romney's taxes matter? joan walsh is editor at large for salon.com and an msnbc political analyst and author of the new book, "what's the matter with white people." amon javers is cnbc's washington correspondent. amon let me begin with you. is this getting traction? do the american people care about the fact that romney's only releasing two years of tax returns?

>> if you frame it in terms of documents and details the american voters don't necessarily care about that stuff. it's kind of complicated and confusing. what they care about in the gut is this sense somebody's getting away with something you're not getting away. so if romney is paying a lower tax rate than other americans, those folks are going to resent that and they're going to want to see exactly how this happened. >> this is your strong suit. is he, in fact, paying a lower tax rate than other americans. the semantics of this become awfully important. >> yeah. what we're talking about here is the federal effective tax rate. that's after you take your deductions and everything else. he's saying over the past ten years he paid 13%. most americans, so your median income in the country in 2011 was about $75,000 a year. those folks paid less, about 5.6% in an effective rate. although they paid payroll taxes on top of that. most americans are paying a lower rate than mitt romney paid, but the problem for mitt romney is there are a lot of high income people who earn a lot of money in salary who are paying much higher tax rates

than he paid because they are getting their money in salary, not in earnings from investments, which are taxed at a lower rate. so those folks are the folks who will look at a 13% rate and say boy, i wish i could get to that. >> but joan walsh, do we fault mitt romney for whatever the rate that he's paying, so long as he's paying it lawfully, legally, morally, ethically? in other words, if we have a beef with this scenario over the rate that he's paying, isn't that consternation better directed at the tax code and those who are responsible for drawing it? >> well, yeah. i think you make a good point. he's probably doing things legally. we haven't seen anything to indicate that he wasn't. but we don't entirely know. and the extent to which he's using these offshore accounts could contribute to this lower tax rate. there are lots of things he could be doing that if the american people knew about them, they're not illegal, but they would make you a little bit squeamish. i do have a to say, the last poll i saw said 63% of americans want to see more tax returns. and finally every time he opens his mouth to talk about this, he

sounds more and more entitled. i mean, calling those 63% of americans who would like to see more taxes small minded? and ann romney's tantrum last night? i mean, it's just not -- >> i want to show it. last night on nbc's "rock center" ann romney made clear that she and mitt will not release more tax returns. here's what she said. >> the more we release, the more we get attacked. the more we get questioned, the more we get pushed. and so we have done what's legally required and there's going to be no more -- there's going to be no more tax releases. >> is she not correct as far as she took the argument? the more they release, the more they will be subject to this kind of scrutiny? >> well, sure to the extent that the more we talk about anybody's policy plans or backgrounds, they may get more scrutiny. it's possible they would get less.

it's possible, it's possible that -- it's possible that we would see things and it would be the same stuff we saw in the other two years and we would all move on. i doubt it because if that were the case, then i think they would have made these records available to us sooner. there's got to be something a little bit more off-putting than what we've seen so far. >> eamon, how do you see that issue? >> that hits it on the head. you can infer here that's what's going on is the romney campaign made a clear political calculation that the heat that they're taking from not releasing these returns right now is less than the heat they would take for whatever is in the returns that they think would be embarrassing. part of the reason is because there are two kinds of rich people in the country. rich people who work for a living and earn a high salary and rich people whose money works for them. that's the camp the romneys are in. so their taxes are very, very low. we have seen the swiss bank account and the ann romney trust and other offshore details. that's just in the stuff they have disclosed. so clearly they know what's in the rest of the documents and they feel that whatever it is

would be worse. and ann romney said almost exactly that last night. we're going to continue to get hit and we're going to continue to get questioned if we put these things out so we're not going to put them out. >> thank you, appreciate you being here. up next, how do you think u.s. congressman joel walsh responded when someone called him a loose cannon? that's next in the "side show." this is "hardball," the place for politics. this man is about to be the millionth customer. would you mind if i go ahead of you? instead we had someone go ahead of him and win fifty thousand dollars. congratulations you are our one millionth customer. people don't like to miss out on money that should have been theirs. that's why at ally we have the raise your rate 2-year cd. you can get a one-time rate increase if our two-year rate goes up. if your bank makes you miss out, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. hethey don't need one,gh wes, clay and demarcus tried on the new depend real fit briefs for charity to prove how great the fit is even while playing pro football. the best protection now looks, fits and feels

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mitt romney says he wants to cut funding for pbs. when he heard that oscar the grouch was like, seriously, i already live in a garbage can. how much worse can my life get? which explains why today sesame street was brought to you by the letters o, and bama. >> back to "hardball" and the sideshow. think it's a bad sign if you're in the midst of a heated

congressional race and you find yourself addressing concerns that you're too much of a, quote, loose cannon? this might ring a bell. >> the government sets the rules. don't blame banks and don't blame the market place for the mess we're in right now. i am tired of hearing that crap. you know what? it just pisses me off. too many people don't listen. i need more coffee. >> a signature episode from joe walsh. walsh and his democratic challenger tammy duckworth fielded questions from reporters earlier this week. the congressman was asked straight up whether he's too much of a loose cannon to stay in congress. >> am i too much of a loose cannon? look, i went there because i'm scared to death that this country has precious little time to turn this thing around. and that causes me to be more outspoken. i said, and tammy loves to jump on this, all joe walsh does is scream from the mountain top. i consider that to be part of my job. am i too much of a loose cannon? no.

i think people appreciate any republican or democrat who finally talks straight to people. >> ask yourself when was the last time you cast a ballot for someone and thought that guy will really scream from the mountain top? next, rage against the machine unleashes a rage against paul ryan. you may have heard that romney's running mate is a big fan of rage against the machine the heavy metal band that sings about corporate greed and blasts oil companies. if you think that's an odd pick for a guy in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy, you're not alone. the musician penned an op-ed for rolling stone that reads in part, quote, paul ryan's love of rage against the machine is amusing because he's the embodiment of the machine that our music has been raging against for two decades. i clearly see ryan has a lot of rage in him. a rage against women, a rage against immigrants, a rage against workers, a rage against gays, a rage against the poor, a rage against the environment. basically the only thing he's

not raging against is the privileged elite he's grovelling in front of for campaign contributions. ouch. morello's response to he likes the sound of the songs, not the lyrics, quote, i don't care for paul ryan's sound or his lyrics. that's "hardball" for now. coming up next, "your business" with j.j. ramberg. research suh plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day women's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for women's health concerns as we age. it has more of 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day 50+. [ john ] no. ♪ were you just... no. are you supposed to be driving that in here? no! yo! teresa here? ♪ no. so iit okay if i stay out just a little bit longer? so...okay... so no. did mom say we could eat all that? [ john ] yes. [ male announcer ] in a world filled with "no," it's nice to finally say "yes." the new line of oscar mayer selects. the tastes you love and no artificial preservatives.

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