which candidate now sounds more commanding on iran, on libya, syria and the economic competition with china? president obama at camp david for debate prep. his challenger camped out in florida, including a break for flag football with the staff and reporters on the beach. >> figure out which of the players is best and take them out early. and live from new york, who is that undecided voter at "snl's" town hall debate? >> we've reached our final question of the night and this is from kerry lapkiss. >> i'm waving. can you see me? can you see me? >> mr. lapkiss, please. >> libya.

>> bob schieffer will do better than that tonight. good day. i'm andrea mitchell live in boca raton, florida, lynn university, where the candidates will face off tonight for the very last time before election day. big moments tonight could well matter in a race that is destined for a photo finish, according to our latest polls. joining me for our daily fix, chris cillizza, msnbc contributor and managing editor of post politics.com, and chuck todd, nbc political director, chief white house correspondent and the host of "the daily rundown." welcome, both. first to you, chuck. we're talking about an nbc news/"wall street journal" poll on this last two weeks of the campaign, which is 47-47 among likely voters. >> you can't get any closer than that. it's a tough number, tougher number if you're looking at it from the president's point of view. an incumbent sitting at 47%, a great ground game like the obama team has can make up one or two points, making up three is a lot to make up.

what was fascinating about the poll, i could go into it, it's a really muddy picture. i can go into it and pick out five things in it that easily tells you and if i gave it to you and didn't tell you the number you would say obama's winning. then i could pick out three or four things and show it to you and you would say oh, this explains why romney's winning. for instance, the economic indicators are all going in the direction, if i told you this is what the economy, people's perception of the economy's going to look like two weeks before the election, six months ago everybody would have said obama was a cinch for re-election, yet that has not -- >> only 9% now think the economy's going in the wrong direction. 45% see improvement. >> it is stunning, the improvement they see. but what seems to be the blank slate here, i sit here and label the polling memo the reluctant last 6%, if you will, they seem reluctant to rehire him and reluctant to fire him. it all seems to come down to there isn't a sense that they know what the second term's going to look like, and what they want, the biggest number in there, that 62% number we have been talking about a lot, 62%

say an obama second term they want to see major changes. if you assume 47 of that 62 are romney supporters, that's 15. that means a bunch of obama supporters want to hear about major changes. >> chris cillizza, with 62% of those polled saying they want major changes if there were a second term, how does the president frame those issues tonight? he is the commander in chief. he has been commanding on foreign policy issues with -- we can talk about the problems he's having in libya, benghazi and all the rest, but does he come out tonight and talk about change in the next term or does he try to further damage his opponent? >> you know, my guess, i don't know if chuck did this, my guess is that 15% chuck's talking about of people who are supporting obama but want major change, my guess is it's largely focused on sort of economic domestic policy, not foreign policy. i don't think at this point in the race, president obama changes his tack which has

essentially been when asked about his own record to say we came in at a difficult time, i did what i said i was going to do and that's particularly the case on foreign policy. we're out of iraq, winding down the war in afghanistan, osama bin laden is dead. he will continue to say that, and then i think very quickly pivot to say this guy, mitt romney, he doesn't have any track record on foreign policy so i don't think you're going to see president obama talk too much about change. it's kind of -- what's the difference between running as a candidate and incumbent. it's easy to run on change as a challenger. hard when you're the incumbent president of the united states. change means the other guy. >> there are other numbers in this poll, chris and chuck. when we look at the real story of the next two weeks, it will be turnout. turnout motivated by ground organizations, motivated by rallies. you'll have the president and vice president in dayton, ohio, ohio, ohio, ohio, tomorrow, and back to nevada, colorado, all of

these states are going to be visited multiple times by the principals. they think with the big rallies, madison, wisconsin was a case in point where they could register and get people to vote. at the same time, you've got hispanics, a huge margin for the president. women, a declining margin for the president. white men for mitt romney. he's got to widen again that gender gap, the female gap, and he's got to turn out -- >> right now, our poll shows that romney's winning the macro argument. he's winning the macro economic argument, he's winning on those things. the president is in this game and if he wins re-election it's because he's winning the microarguments, who's better, who's going to better look out for you if it's hispanics, on women's issues, on targeted issues, and he's putting together sort of a tapestry of how he would get his coalition together. this issue on hispanics, right now romney is overperforming mccain among white voters. he's overperforming him at points that if he were losing

hispanics by the same number mccain lost them by four years ago, about 35 points, romney would be ahead, he would be sitting at about 48%, 49% depending. the problem is he's not. he's losing hispanics by historic margins. >> 50 points. >> near 50 points. if that's the case, then i don't see how, you know, we talk about florida. there has been some republican strategists who i think have their glasses on from the '90s who sit there and say that means florida, if romney is improving overall, then virginia, north carolina, florida move together. don't do that to florida. i wouldn't do that yet. i think there's been a mass -- >> you think florida's in play? >> i think florida -- they're all in play within the margin. i think obama is in better shape in florida today than virginia. i never would have thought i would have had that conversation. when you look at these hispanic numbers, you cannot sit there and sit there and say florida is definitely in the romney column. >> quickly, i want to talk about ohio. very quickly. chris, there's a cbs poll

tonight -- today, that says there's a five-point edge in battleground ohio for the president. you see all of the visits there. how safe is ohio, not safe yet for the president but still ahead? >> not safe yet. i would say this point, look at when you're comparing a poll to itself, look at kind of the trend line. a few weeks ago in this same poll, barack obama was up ten. now he's up five. i talked to folks in the state, democrats and republicans who believe that it's closer than that. i still think if they voted today, barack obama wins ohio but i think you're starting to see a slide back toward mitt romney. that is the state, in my opinion, mitt romney must have. he must win ohio to make the case for 270 electoral votes plausible. >> chris, thanks so much. the trend line going against the president. if the election were held today it would be one thing but it is not. it's two weeks from today. thank you both so much. while president obama is preparing for tonight's debate,

vice president biden is pumping up his boss in where else, ohio. >> it's time for the people to stand up and say what they believe in. elections for president are primarily about character. i'm telling you, my guy's got character. there's not a day that's gone by in the last four years that i haven't been grateful that barack obama is our president. >> new york democratic congressman greg meeks is a member of the house foreign affairs committee and joins me here at the table. the foreign policy challenges as well as the electoral challenges now, in battleground turnout mode, state by state, how much difference will tonight's debate make? >> well, all debates are important, but i think you know the president obama has a deep and intense battleground and on the ground strategy. that's why he's been advocating to get many people to the polls as we can.

we want people to come out to vote. we've got a ground operation. that ground operation is what's going to take us over the top. we knew all the time that this was going to be a close race. anybody you talked to could have told you from the beginning this race was going to be close. it's about turnout and we have the ground game to turn out our voters and the voters will turn out. >> how concerned are you by the polls showing that the president is tied with mitt romney, 47-47, and the trend in this poll is a diminishing number of women in favor of him in terms of the gender gap that had favored him by double digits only a few weeks ago? the trend is going in the wrong direction for him. >> but if you look at the battleground states still, the president has the lead. the president is moving forward. if you look at the president's operations in these battleground states, they are very solid. and i think the key, if you look at the early turnout votes in ohio, for example, which shows overwhelmingly that the president's people are turning out to vote. that trend is the trend that will continue. that trend is the trend that will elect -- re-elect president obama to the white house.

>> there has been a lot of criticism of the administration's handling of benghazi. we will be joined shortly by some of the fiercest critics, including peter king. what do you say to those who say there was a security failure and an intelligence failure? >> i say i'm shocked, because generally, we are americans first, and generally we have a tragedy, americans killed, we come together. first thing that governor romney did, without knowing the facts, was politicize it. something he said he would do, by the way, in the infamous 47% speech. so they're playing politics while the president's being commander in chief. he's being the president of the united states. he's getting the facts and as he gets the facts, he talks to the american people. that's what you do. that's responsible leadership. not just flying by your pants, saying anything that, you know, may be politically expedient. we should be coming together over this. we still have a tragedy that took place and i think that the

president would have nothing to gain, he or any of his administration, to make something up about benghazi. what the president will do is to give the best reports as he receives them to the american people. that's what he's done. >> congressman, in our poll, 62% of those polled, including the president's supporters, at least 15% of the president's own supporters, want to see major changes if there is a second term. >> i think that what you see is that the president is moving forward. anybody wants the country moving forward. we don't want to go back. we know that when we go back, we go back to the kinds of economy, two wars that we were engaged in. you'll see change. know why you'll see change? you'll see change because we'll be able to create more jobs. you'll see change because we will be getting out of afghanistan. you will see change because we will strengthened our allies and alliances together to continue the pressure we're putting on iran, for example. unprecedented sanctions with the eu and our allies like never before. so you are going to see change going forward because you are going to see the change that is

being implemented by the president now that's going to make it even better for us going forward in the next administration as we move forward. so we've come a long way and he's going to pull us even further in the right direction. we're going to continue going forward. we're not going back. >> congressman gregory meeks, thank you so much. thanks for joining us today. still ahead, live from lynn university, house homeland security committee chairman peter king, house intelligence committee chair mike rogers. don't miss msnbc's prime time coverage of tonight's debate starting at 8:00 eastern. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." [ male announcer ] humana and walmart have teamed up to bring you a low-priced medicare prescription drug plan. ♪ with a low national plan premium...

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welcome back. the administration and congressional republicans are in a war of words over benghazi. joining me now is congressman peter king, chairman of the house homeland security committee. you have a lot of oversight over the cia as well as some other committees. let's talk about what the intelligence did and what do you want to know? you sent a letter now requesting a release of the intelligence that the administration had at the time and the cables as well as some of the background reporting. >> the reason for that is either the white house spun its own story or the intelligence they got was terribly bad which also makes you ask questions about the administration's policy regarding intelligence. considering the fact that people at the consulate that night said there was no demonstration. the fact that in the weeks leading up to that, there was talk of possible terrorist attacks, that the ambassador was

so concerned about the security at the consulate, despite the fact that the type of fighting was done that night, type of direct and indirect fire, the weapons that were used, how the intelligence community told the president there was no terrorist involvement and it was based on a demonstration, which the people in the consulate said never happened. what was done? what did the president drill down on? what did he try to find out which allowed him to go forward and say it was not a terrorist attack? >> i went to the background briefing where we were told at the state department about ten days ago, maybe a few days earlier than that, that in fact, in realtime, people in the operation center at the consulate were saying they're coming over the wall, there hadn't been a protest, the ambassador had walked a dinner guest outside and it all had been quiet. at the same time, we're told there were other sources telling american agents or officials or officers that there was a video motivation to the protest. including one of those who

supposedly could have been a ringleader, may be a suspect, may be just bragging about his credentials but is walking around free as a bird in benghazi a couple days ago, talking to the "new york times." isn't it true, though, congressman, that you get different strands of intelligence? you get the consulate saying there's no protest, you get people outside saying there is. the agency is assessing all of this information. doesn't that take time or do you think it takes too much time? >> they didn't take time. they said right up front this came from the video, there was a demonstration which spun out of control. i'm saying if they had said listen, there may have been a demonstration, we also know there was threat of terrorist attacks, we know there's many weapons al qaeda has access to. if they put that out there. instead, susan rice and jay carney were basically saying this was the video two weeks later. >> susan rice had caveats. she said as far as we know, her quotation is taken out of a longer interview.

in all of those interviews she said as best as the fbi is telling us, which was based of course at that point on the intelligence from the cia. so is it fair to parse the words that closely? >> yeah, because the whole emphasis she gave, she totally deemphasized the terrorist aspect. to me, the circumstantial evidence at least at that time was overwhelmingly that this probably was a terrorist attack. now, they could have said we're not certain, but acknowledge that most of the evidence seemed to be that it was. mike rogers was the first one on september 12th or 13th who said there was too much sophisticated fighting for this just to be a spontaneous demonstration. that's where i fault the administration. they tried to i think take the intelligence and make it fit into the president's narrative that al qaeda has been defeated, al qaeda is on the run. now we can turn to other specifics. >> what about darrell issa releasing those documents without redacting the names? i know there's a question as to whether some or all of those names were libyan nationals working with the u.s. there's been criticism he didn't work with congressman cummings,

he didn't notify the state department, didn't notify the white house. doesn't that give the impression that at least some in congress are politicizing this? >> if we're talking about politicizing it, no one has leaked more than this administration. to selectively leak yesterday that there may be secret talks going on with iran -- >> they deny that they were responsible -- >> who else would have done it? certainly wasn't the iranians that did it. wasn't the israelis. the only one it could have been was the administration. this is a whole pattern they've had. as far as darrell issa, he performed a real service with this hearing as to what should have been redacted or not, i will let chairman issa handle that. he's done an outstanding job on this from the start. as far as politicizing, you have mike rogers coming up next, he and i have stood by the president on a number of foreign policy issues including the killing of bin laden. we don't take partisan shots. i wouldn't have jumped into this as quickly as i did, in fact, when we were on "meet the press" i was pretty restrained. i wanted to wait until it was all in. but i was surprised that susan rice went as far as she did and the fact that jay carney kept it up for days afterwards and the president was still talking

about it two weeks later at the u.n. about this tape shows me a lot has to be answered here. it's either spinning, which you should never do with american lives or it's a real failure of -- with the administration to run a competent administration. >> congressman, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> up next, the man who does have direct oversight over the cia, house intelligence chairman mike rogers. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." [ man ] ring ring... progresso this reduced sodium soup says it may help lower cholesterol, how does it work? you just have to eat it as part of your heart healthy diet. step 1. eat the soup. all those veggies and beans, that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.

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disposal. the president arriving. mitt romney has been here a couple days in florida, took a brief break for football on the beach but the president just now arriving, as you see, in florida and the white house as he arrives is on the defensive, as you just heard, about benghazi. that topic is sure to come up in tonight's debate. at issue of course, security and supposed intelligence failures. congressman mike rogers chairs the house intelligence committee and joins me now. so security, we have seen the cables now from ambassador stevens saying on august 8th in a cable called guns of august, how bad security was, asking for more bodyguards. september 10th, again, warning about security. the next day, of course, the fatal attack. security failures and intelligence analysis, a failure of analysis afterwards? >> i'm not sure you can equate the two. i think on the security side, at least from the state

department's perspective, certainly didn't analyze the threat correctly. if they went ahead and denied extra coverage and think about it, lots of threat streams going into 9/11 this year from al qaeda in the magrab, we had al sharia, a growing group who said they wanted to be successful on a western target. all of that including, by the way, not one but two strikes on that consulate in months prior to it should have led even the newest intelligence analyst for the state department to come to the conclusion hey, listen, this is a dangerous place, the ambassador doesn't feel comfortable, we need more security for them. you're not going to build a place in a couple months but you can beef up the ambassador's security. that clearly to me was a failure by the state department to recognize that threat. it had plenty of information, plenty of intelligence. >> congressman, you're a former fbi man. first of all, the fbi couldn't even get on the ground for days and days, and now we see that this man who may or may not have been a suspect, some are telling

me he's bragging about his role, in any case, is someone you would want to talk to, he has not been picked up by libyan authorities nor by our own. >> i think it shows how deteriorated that security posture has become in and around benghazi. >> if a "new york times" reporter can wander around and sit in a cafe for two hours with him, why can't the fbi? >> well, it's a little different when you show up with your fbi gear on, it's a little bit of a different hostile environment than it is for press and reporters, even though i think it's still dangerous for press and reporters there. it's clearly an indication that the libyan forces are at least losing control. a lot of those militias have exerted themselves in those areas, contrary to the government mandates and the government at least attempt to gain security control, and again, i think that is a great example of how it had deteriorated pretty badly. this didn't happen after the attack. this took weeks to accomplish and how they just absolutely missed that information is a bit concerning and something i think we'll have to get to the bottom of.

>> let's talk about iran. as an experienced analyst, one who has supported the administration on some and criticized them on other issues, what was the first thing that struck your -- struck you when you read on saturday night that there were talks, background talks, according to my reporting, to begin having talks with iran after the election? >> i think they have mishandled the iran -- the whole circumstance around iran. they have distanced ourselves from israel which i think is really dangerous going into this. >> they deny that. they say we are closer with israel than ever. >> when they are talking about our military and intelligence -- >> there are joint exercises today. >> yes, they are tied together. but when the prime minister goes to the u.n. general assembly with a picture of a bomb and emphatically says this is the trouble, what are you all willing to do to help, that's a clear signal i think to the administration you need to be more clear. i happen to be in the conversation when the ambassador was less than thrilled about

where the relationship was between israel and the administration. >> the u.s. ambassador -- >> well, between mr. netanyahu, the u.s. ambassador, myself. that caused serious problems. that political rift is more serious than even the cooperation between the military and intelligence. because of that, they'll have to make decisions based on what they see their threat posed to israel. so you have egypt that has put tanks in the sinai and politically expressed an interest in doing away with the peace treaty with israel, and we haven't really pushed, i don't think, hard enough on that. we haven't done anything to get all their tanks out of the sinai in violation of the peace treaty. so israel looks at it from well, i've got problems in egypt, they used to be a reliable partner for peace, not sure now. hezbollah, 30,000 missiles, they are engaged in syria. you can see that conflict spilling over into lebanon, causes them huge problems. oh, and by the way, did we tell you, iran seems to be pushing very aggressively for a nuclear weapon that they have publicly expressed they would use in a place like israel.

so they are under intense pressure and the more clear communication that you can stand with our ally in the region, israel, the better off both of us are. i think that miscommunication is causing problems and may, in fact, make israel make a decision based on their own security interests and not mutual security interests. >> congressman mike rogers, thank you very much. >> thanks, andrea. coming up, our foreign policy gurus, bruce rydell, and nbc's chief foreign correspondent, richard engel. send me your thoughts on facebook and twitter. this is "andrea mitchell reports." wooohooo....hahaahahaha! oh...there you go. wooohooo....hahaahahaha! i'm gonna stand up to her!

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by the soviet union on the united states, requiring a full response upon the soviet union. >> 50 years ago today, president john f. kennedy first revealed the presence of soviet missiles in cuba to the american people and to the world. at the time, fidel castro had been in power for only a few years, a young revolutionary ready for a showdown with the west but relying on an uncertain soviet ally. today, after being out of sight since the pope visited havana last march, the 86-year-old castro released new photos taken by his son, alex castro, trying to put to rest internet rumors that he was near death. in an accompanying newspaper article, castro critiqued the international media for spreading lies about his health. he wrote that he could not even remember what a headache felt like. good for him. as the candidates prepare for tonight's foreign policy debate, this is the backdrop to many of the questions still

being asked today. what question would they ask? i'm posing that to our foreign policy experts who are joining me now. "new york times" correspondent elizabeth bumiller. nbc's chief foreign correspondent, richard engel and bruce rydell, former long-time cia officer now with the brookings institution. welcome, all. first to you, bruce. what questions would you want asked? i suspect from what you've been writing about that it might be pakistan. >> absolutely. pakistan's the most dangerous country in the world today. it has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world and in many ways, we are fighting a proxy war in pakistan today. our drones are operating over pakistan every day, taking out high value targets and our commandos went in and took out osama bin laden just a year and a half ago. i think we need to hear from both candidates, how are they going to continue to prosecute the war against terrorist targets in pakistan as we draw down our forces in afghanistan.

every drone mission over pakistan is flown from afghanistan. how are we going to continue to fight the war against terror as we transition out of afghanistan. >> richard engel, you have spent so much time in afghanistan, in pakistan and around the world in conflict. we don't hear enough about afghanistan. we've got troops still there. both mitt romney and president obama say that they would end the war, whatever that means, in 2014. from your perspective, from the ground where you usually report from, how is that possible and how will it work? >> it's certainly possible. i think the decision is just -- the decision just must be taken to follow up with what they're promising and to actually end the war in afghanistan. having just recently been in afghanistan, and speaking with many of the commanders, with afghans, there was a deep concern that that country will go back into some kind of civil war as u.s. troops draw down.

so if i were to be asking the questions tonight to the president, i would say what is the plan for afghanistan, what happens if afghanistan just goes back into a civil war, was the war worth it at all, all of the american lives, all the money that was spent there, if after the longest war in u.s. history, the country just disintegrates into violence. the other question i would ask is about the arab spring. was the arab spring worth it, was the u.s. support of the uprisings across the region that have led to a great deal of chaos in u.s. interests and if so, why. i would ask him to defend that policy and i would ask both candidates to defend that policy. >> elizabeth, what about syria? you've been reporting on the military operations, we know that there are light weapons supposedly being supplied through our arab allies but what about all the reporting now and most recently in the "new york times" that weapons are getting into the wrong hands?

>> well, yes, i would ask mitt romney how he planned to arm the rebels in syria. as you know, this administration, the obama administration, does not want to provide arms to the rebels. they feel that again, there's evidence as you cited, they would get into the wrong hands. i would ask mitt romney, again, the method for arming the rebels and whether he was concerned about bad outcomes for that and as defense secretary leon panetta said recently, we do not want to go in there as we did in iraq, we do not want to make that kind of mistake again. i would also ask him about iran just to get into another topic, i would ask him if he would negotiate one-on-one with the iranians. over the weekend, the "times" reported that there was -- the administration was -- had agreed in principle to talks with iran, but mitt romney has not said one way or the other whether or not

he would agree to that himself. it's a tough spot he's in because he does not want to be said to not agree to talks and be perceived as moving towards another war in the middle east. >> it's very striking that all of his surrogates from marco rubio to the other foreign policy advisors, dan senor, were not attacking the notion of talking with iran. they did say and have said before that the president was not supportive enough of the students in the green revolution, but they did not really come out attacking. bruce, what about back channels to iran? you've been involved in some of those in the past. >> we are seeing signs that the sanctions imposed by the united states and the world community are having a real impact in iran now. the economy of iran is in serious free-fall. that's all good news. this is what we wanted to see happen. this is what our israeli ally wanted to see happen as well.

if that means the iranians are now finally prepared to come to the table, that's good news. but i think anyone who has ever been engaged in negotiations with the iranians will tell you be careful, keep a good eye on your pocket, because the iranians are going to try to do everything they can to stall and to try to get as much out of you as they possibly can. but i think overall, the notion that iran is now seriously interested in talking face-to-face to the great satan, that's us, is a sign that the pressure that the president and the global community has put on iran is starting to show some real bite. that means we should keep it on and see if we can get something out of the iranians that can avert another war in the middle east. >> richard, finally, you've been in iran and studied this for so many years. ahmadinejad vetoed the agreement on nuclear enriched uranium being exported to russia back in october of 2009.

i was covering that in geneva. first of all, isn't the issue whether the ayatollah who has sole control over nuclear decisions, really signs off on this, and speak for a moment about the fact that ahmadinejad is so much losing his power that today, he tried apparently to visit one of his former aides in prison and was denied access. >> ahmadinejad right now doesn't have very much authority at all. as you said, the revolutionary guard and it's the office of the supreme leader that call the shots. they really always have called the shots but they allowed ahmadinejad to be their surrogate and he seems to have fallen out of favor. so it's really going back to that strategic choice that bruce rydell was just talking about. the sanctions are working. they are hurting the iranian economy in a tremendous way. so iran can either react in i think one of three ways. iran can either seek to accommodate and it can do what

it might be willing to do which is come to the table, negotiate, potentially give up part or all of its enrichment program. that is certainly the u.s. preferred option. it can try and take the opposite approach, the extreme opposite approach, and rush towards some sort of weaponization and a nuclear capability. that would be a far more risky approach, could even inspire an israeli military strike. there's a lot of negative consequences for that scenario. or something a little bit in the middle, which would be to try and start a diversionary conflict, to use its proxies potentially in syria, in yemen, with hezbollah, to ease pressure off of itself by opening the valve somewhere else. >> thank you so much, richard, elizabeth, bruce. we'll all be watching the foreign policy debate to see which questions get asked and answered. which obama, which romney will show up tonight? we'll talk to the biographers next on "andrea mitchell

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[ voice of dennis ] silence. are you in good hands? the polls are tied. tonight is the last chance for the candidates to reach a large audience of voters unfiltered. how will each respond to having his back against the wall? no one knows each better than their biographers. they join me now. welcome, both. first to you, michael. mitt romney, the polls are tied. he's got the momentum, the wind behind him. this is a tough night. he was very, very tough and aggressive in the last debate. does he come on as aggressive as he did last time or does he sort of quiet it down seated at the table and talking about foreign policy? >> i think he'll try to be pretty tough but try to look

presidential. he's had this kind of form before in 2002 ten years ago when he ran for governor. he was down in the polls, he sat at a table like there will be tonight and he was very successful and he won that race. he's been in this situation before and as people saw in the last two debates, he can be a strong debater. i think he will try to be aggressive but keep the presidential tone, let people envision him as commander in chief. >> david, you have studied so deeply the roots of barack obama. can you explain what happened in denver? who showed up or who didn't show up in denver? >> well, barack obama showed up in denver. the more vulnerable parts of his personality. he showed his ambivalence towards politics in some sense, his disdain for the sound bite culture which can play against him, his ambivalence for transactional politics. he was overconfident. he wasn't well prepared and all of that along with the fact that at that point in the campaign, the campaign strategy was to be

defensive. all of that played against him and it was obviously the worst moment of his campaign this year. >> does he recover? >> well, he recovered some in the second debate. >> in terms of tonight's debate, how aggressive do you think he will be in trying to combat and undercut mitt romney? >> i think he'll be less aggressive than he was in the second debate, but he has to be even more precise and decisive. foreign policy should play to his strengths. the best moments for him in the second debate were on foreign policy. but this time, he can't say please proceed, governor, again. this time it will probably be please proceed, mr. president, in terms of explaining a fairly confusing set of events in libya. it's kind of a contradiction of terms but he has to make sense out of confusion in that incident and that will be a major test for him. >> michael, foreign policy is

not natural to mitt romney. you've covered him for years. it's not part of his background, except in the economic context. i guess he can talk about the global economy, can talk about china. what do you expect him to do tonight? >> well, it's right, he doesn't have a foreign policy background at all. i think his challenge is to try to talk to voters and explain why foreign policy and his foreign policy is in their best economic interests at home. so he wants to both let people see him as a commander in chief type person but also explain why his policies on china, he wants to go after china as a currency manipulator, he says, for example, and why this would help the american economy. so it's a balancing act. he has to also explain why, although his policies aren't that different on a lot of issues such as syria, that he still has a different view looking forward and obama certainly will push him very hard on how he will pay for such an extraordinary increase in defense spending that mitt romney has proposed. >> michael, david, thank you both so much.

a few words today about a war hero, passionate advocate for the hungry of the world, peace activist and standard bearer for progressive causes, george mcgovern. his 1972 campaign was the first involving a young democrat a yo little rock, bill clinton, and his fellow yale law school student hillary rodham. he was portrayed by richard nixon as weak on defense. mcgovern flew 33 missions in world war ii. lieutenant mcgovern crash-landed i see plane and was awarded the flying cross. he was demonized by the nixon white house, which employed a team known as the plummers against him. the rest is history called watergate. he lived a full life of public service for decades after that defeat. he died at age of 90 this weekend victorious in every way except for that race for the white house. we'll be right back. y, jason ise to volunteer to help those in need.

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so what should we watch for in tonight's debate? who better to ask than mark halpern, the game change guy himself. what are you looking for foent? >> both sides have game plans. the president wants to be presidential, take advantage of being commander in chief to talk with authority about what he accomplished in the first term. governor romney wants to be calm and smooth the edges. i agree with the president when he can, and also try to look calm and presidential and with authority. i think what could throw both or either of them off is the dynamic we saw in the last debate. they don't particularly like each other. from the president's point of view he thinks governor romney has criticized him in a way that is political. if governor romney digs him in a way the president can't resist, he may go harder and less presidential he'd like to do. one of the amazing things that got him into the race is he thinks the president is a disaster on foreign policy.

if the president says something that opens up -- taps into that feeling governor romney has, he took may be more aggressive and hotter than his advisers have planned for. >> it's true they don't like each other, and mitt romney knows how to get under barack obama's skin. >> and vice versa. what you saw in the first debate was kind of a primal tapping into what both of them feel. foreign policy is a hot button issue. for both these guys, they think they have the far superior world view, even though it's widely discussed and we've talked about it. the issue positions aren't that different, but they believe the other one is fundamentally misguided about how to lead the united states and the role of the u.s. in the world. i think they can ekts xecute an calm. it may not have the kind of heat in the last one unless one taps into the feeling on the other side. although they'd be seated, i think it could be pretty

aggressive, even though that's not the plan either have. >> they don't always go according to plan. i love your reporting. thank you, mark halpern. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." join us tomorrow for all the debate wrap-ups. we have a look at what's next on "news nation." >> next hour, president obama arrived in bock ka rat ton florida moments ago, ahead of tonight's third and final presidential debate. we're perhaps getting a glimpse into governor romney's strategy for the evening. >> i don't think there's real daylight between governor romney and president obama on that particular issue. >> on that particular issue. we'll explain where there's no daylight. does that mean no fireworks tonight? could part of the governor's strategy be to embrace the president's foreign policy? mitt romney promised to label china a currency manipulator if he's elected. that's what's on the agenda the first day, but what would china do on day two?

zachary care bell joins me to discuss china and american jobs. [ female announcer ] need help keeping your digestive balance? try the #1 gastroenterologist recommended probiotic. align. align naturally helps maintain digestive balance. ♪ ooh, baby, can i do for you today? ♪ try align today. busy in here. yeah. progressive mobile is... [ "everybody have fun tonight" plays ] really catching on! people can do it all! get a quote, buy and manage your policy! -[ music stops ] -it's great! well, what's with the... -[ music resumes ] -music? ♪ have fun tonight dude. getting a car insurance quote. i'll let it go to voicemail. [ clears throat ] ♪ everybody wang chung tonight ♪ putting it on vibrate. [ cell phone vibrates ] -[ loud vibrating ] -it'll pass. [ vibrating continues ] our giant store and your little phone. that's progressive mobile.

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