hi, everyone. i'm tamron hall. we're following the beginning of the end game, i should say. it's an all hands on deck frenetic tour of swing states today as president obama and governor romney fight to close the deal in the final 13 days of the race for the white house. president obama right now on the way to colorado. the second stop of a two-day battleground glitz that started in iowa. >> this is the first stop on our 48-hour fly around campaign marathon extravaganza. we're going to pull an all-nighter. we joke but all of this speaks to something that's really important and that is the issue of trust. there's no more serious issue on a presidential campaign than trust. >> and you can follow the dots and follow where the money's being spent by both campaigns and see where all eyes likely

focused election night. right now, ohio is the ad capital, dollar capital of the world if you will. $177 million being spent by the campaigns in that state alone. followed by florida at $174 million and virginia, $136 million. and ohio is where in a few minutes congressman paul ryan will give what the campaign is calling a major policy address on poverty and america's promise. as for the top of the gop ticket, mitt romney will spend a second day campaigning in nevada. now some other head leans off the trail right now. the obama campaign is now allowing a previously off the record interview with "the des moines register" to be published and they'll stand by this guy senate candidate richard m

ourdock despite the comment that a pregnancy of rape is a gift of god. let's bring in the panel. michael, we'll talk about this issue a little bit more in depth but this mourdock story line, the problem of the day for governor romney. he is saying that an ad that's up right now in indiana where he is endorsing him will not come down despite the fact the governor and the campaign strongly disagrees with the comments made last night in that debate. >> it's problematic because it's also akin and it's smith here in pennsylvania. and it furtheourturthers the na and everything matters. we are talking so much about how it's a razor thin margin and women's votes are very much in play and problematic and interesting that governor romney is not going to distinguish himself from the entire

candidacy. >> let's play what mourdock said in the debate. let's play it. >> i believe that life begins at conception. the only exception i have for -- to have an abortion is in the case of the life of the mother. i just -- i struggled with it myself a long time but a life is a gift of god and e67b in the horrible situation of rape, it is something that god intended to happen. >> keith, let me bring you in and talking more regarding the female vote but here again two senate candidates in the same election cycle having these comments and you have people who will likely ask, what is going on? and how does mitt romney disassociate with the part of his party that subscribes to these notions in this case, they're not going all akin on mourdock meaning akin, threw him under the bus.

good-bye. no money and no nothing and in this case the ad stays up. >> well, this is a party that's been taken over by the right wing extremists. they have to do something to themselves agreeable to the middle ground which is what romney is doing in the debates but the truthfulness of people like todd akin and richard mourdock and there are republicans in tight senate races and people just reasonable republicans standing up against this, people like kelly ayeh in new hampshire saying he's canceling a fund-raiser with mourdock and whitman telling governor romney to repudiate this guy. you have people uncomfortable with this and the republican party's in danger of expanding the gender gap that's already out there if they don't stand up and have mitt romney do something. >> let's bring in host and keith b boykin's best friend, here's another gop candidate, a big voice or could be a big voice in

your party saying that while horrible situation of rape, that it is something that god intended to happen. he's come back out and tried to clarify this remark. even now republican women disassociating themselves from this candidate. but mitt romney still backing him and endorsement and not taking down the ad up just today, ironically, in indiana. what do you think of that? >> well, it's a long cherished position within the republican party, tamron. one of the first planks in the platform in every state of the union that life is sacred and a gift of god and what i heard richard mourdock and in a state he'll win and romney will win, maybe i would have worded it differently but echoed the first principle in almost every republican party platform in the united states of america. >> okay. so in the case where he says a horrible situation of rape that

it is something that god intended to happen, in addition to the life as some interpreted that if the life then is a situation that god intended then the rape is what god intended, as well. >> well, i always love this idea of what exactly god intended. when it comes from people -- >> that's the very reason people don't like to see religion in politics because it's subject to interpretation of what you or maybe richard mourdock believes is god intended or not god intended. that's why -- exactly. >> why is it when the president quotes from the bible the first murderer to justify the welfare state, how come that's religion okay to bring in politics and with morality it's not. >> i'm asking you that there are people who interpret that comment made by this senate candidate as what i just explained. >> sure. >> if this -- if your notion is that god oversees all then why

try to backtrack on the rape part? i'm not defending anyone's religious beliefs here. that's a personal conversation you'd have to pose to the president if he's so fortunate to have him come on your show. i'm asking you about richard mourdock. >> i'm happy to answer that question. >> go ahead. >> the answer to that question from a christian perspective and what he was referring, the answer is we are all responsible for our individual choices but as a sovereign god has the ability to take tragedy and turn them in to blessings and the most seminole moment, the crucifkru crucifixion to the resurrection. that's a tragedy and something good. what man meant for evil god can turn in to good and that's what i heard him say and if they really think the children deserve to live they ought to say, hey, those kids, kids like rebecca keesling in michigan, you don't deserve the right to live. if that's what they think then they should say so.

>> steve, if this is an easy issue, a slam dunk for the republican party, tell your republican party standard bearer mitt romney because he's been all over the map on this issue and tell the republican women who are standing up and saying, well, this is not something we feel comfortable with because the republican party is being hijacked or has already been hijacked by the social extremists. i understand, i respect you, steve, because you're willing to be consistent in the position and viewpoint but your candidate mitt romney has not been. >> okay. let's transition real quick. >> keith is right about that. >> he is. >> he hasn't been. >> let's get you in on this. this "des moines register" interview, 30 minutes long off the record. after some objections by the paper, they've been able to release it. part of the quote which is so interesting the president's team didn't want this out. let's read part of it. since this is off the record, i'll just be very blunt, should i win a second term, a big

reason is because the republican nominee and party so ail len yated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the latino community. why shouldn't the campaign want that part, a blupt comment comm is true and will matter come election night? >> it's actually very similar to something he said before. >> absolutely. >> a year ago at univision forum where he talked about how he would run against republicans and said essentially all he would have to do is run debate clips from the republican presidential primary and the republicans were saying things about illegal immigrants and things like that and saying sort of -- not necessarily disparaging comments but framing them in a way that might not be to people's likings and interesting. i think they tried to have it off the record and speaks to both campaigns overly cautious in the last 13 days. >> yeah. >> they don't want to draw

attention to anything that will turn in to a twitter moment, a youtube moment. so that i think is really what is behind this but i think ultimately it's pretty harmless comment. >> yeah. >> that he made. and a true comment. >> he said it's not a relatively new phenomenon. george bush and karl rove understand the changing nature of america. but let me play, michael, bay buchanan on with luke russert this morning and he posed the comment about the latino voters in this country and governor romney and the republican party. let me play it. >> why do latinos distrust governor romney so much? >> well, you know, it goes back. the lady no population is generally speaking part of the democratic base. and so, what we're trying to do obviously is reach out to all americans. >> george w. bush won 40% latino vote in 2004. so they're not completely loyal to one side. it shows there's room for

growth. how come governor romney can't do that? >> we're doing everything we can but i think our message is clearly resonating with americans. >> michael, what is your take on that? bay buchanan with the romney campaign, obviously, trying to paint the picture that latinos' vote lock step with the democratic party but that was not the case as luke pointed out just in the recent future with bush. >> well, two things come to mind. the dream act at the top of the list and so too the whole arizona issue which i think has furthered a narrative of the democratic party being a hospitable place for hispanics. and, you know, the issue long term for the gop when you look at the demographics in the future as far as 2050, if the republicans can't right themselves with the hispanic community, it bodes terribly for their ability to win any national elections going forward. >> and steve, let me bring you back. in ohio we know the importance of that state and looking at the

numbers, the electoral map but congressman paul ryan set to give a speech in this hour on restoring america's promise and the moral obligation to tackle debt and in the excerpts that have been released he says you should have the opportunity in america to rise, to escape from poverty and to achieve whatever your god-given talent and hard work enable you to achieve but everyone who knows him will tell you that mitt has always given his time and attention to those around him who are hurting. you're a conservative, republican, you're not a fan of mitt romney. are you convinced of some of those things that congressman paul ryan is espousing? do you believe for your children, for your spouse that governor romney is looking at the promise for the future for them in a equn equal way? >> well, i think there are aspects of what governor romney thinks we need in the future i agree with more than obama. i would just challenge congressman ryan, however, to be

consistent with that standard beginning with the -- something as simple as the sankty of life. i did the research and couldn't find another example of a republican nominee for president running pro-abortion television ads on tv. never seen it. i don't think it's ever happened and running the ads right now in virginia. well, who's more hurting and who's more the least of these than the defenseless themselves, the unborn? i think if governor romney were more consistent on these things this race would be tilting more heavily in his favor than it is right now. the last remaining qualm and why the president focused on this monday night is the fact over the course of his career he has been a man of many different positions on many different issues and one last caveat remaining to close the sale for the american people to trust. >> keith, you heard for steve and he believes for some conservatives this goes back to the 13 days of social issues which is not really this speech that congressman ryan is given

or governor romney is giving. but still, steve and other conservatives will still vote for. >> that's not quite -- pardon me. that's not quite true. what i'm saying is overall world view that includes social issues. what is the relationship between the government and the governed and it doesn't just break down in to fiscal issues. it is an overall world view. that's what conservatives like me are saying. >> perhaps why i did not understand your comment because my specific question was about this moral obligation to tackle the debt and i'd moved on past the social which you pivoted back to so specifically the question was about their plan to tackle the debt. do you or any republican feel comfortable at this time outlining what the plan is to tackle the debt, especially if it's a moral obligation for not only your future but the kids i love in my home, as well? >> absolutely. i think both candidates do. i think, you know, we waited until three national debates. president obama finally came out with a second term plan yesterday. mr. romney is way too vague about the plans and i think, you

know, overall the american people don't trust the overall ruling class in both parties. and i think that they're loathsome to hop on board with more sentiment and empty words. they want real specifics. i agree with you. >> i'm not sure i agree what you saying but i want to respond to tamron's question. the problem it seems to me of paul ryan's saying and comment of mitt romney is overarching problem of the republican party. i don't doubt for a second that paul ryan and mitt romney is a good person and i don't doubt they want to take care of the people they know and they meet and they're not evil people. but the problem is not their personalities. it's not the way they behave with the people they meet but the policies. their policies are fundamentally destructive to the middle class. they're fundamentally disinstructive to the poor and needy and women who want control over their own bodies. i'm concerned about a party and a presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate who

articulate policies and want to implement the policies to hurt those people. >> let's bring in michael here talking about the folks that kooe is referring to, steve. but i love that you are on the phone listening and speaking to people all day. what do they see as the end game, quickly, michael, as we say this is the beginning of the end? >> here's one takeaway. that every moment spent addressing social issues is a moment that benefits the president because the best shot for governor romney is that it's a concentration on the economy. and you hear so much of this discussion now going in to a social realm where, frankly, the campaign isn't focused so far. i think that benefits the president and hearing that from listeni listeners. >> thank you. thank you so much. and just within the last few minutes, we have got breaking news. reports of an arrest in connection with the deadly attack on that u.s. consulate in lib yeah. coming up, i'll talk with jim frederic on the breaking news within the hour. plus, more on the gamble

governor romney is taken in the last hour by refusing to withdraw his endorsement of richard mourdock and the dnc out with a new ad linking romney to him. >> even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that god intended to happen. >> we've got to get this guy elected in the u.s. senate. >> next up, salon.com's writer will join us. the risks for romney. plus, there's more than one way to get to 270. how does the president win without ohio? joining our conversation on twitter. this is my song pick of the day. just bought it on itunes.

stop! stop! stop! come back here! humans -- we are beautifully imperfect creatures living in an imperfect world. that's why liberty mutual insurance has your back with great ideas like our optional better car replacement. if your car is totaled, we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. call...

and ask one of our insurance experts about it today. hello?! we believe our customers do their best out there in the world, and we do everything we can to be there for them when they need us. [car alarm blaring] call now and also ask about our 24/7 support and service. call... and lock in your rate for 12 months today. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?

welcome back. more now on the controversial comments regarding rape made by indiana republican senate candidate richard mourdock and the romney campaign continues to keep the ad up in indiana endorsing mourdock. mourdock, in fact, held a news conference in the past hour insisting the comments have been misinterpr misinterpreted. >> i spoke from my heart. i spoke with my principle. i spoke from my faith. and if others wish to try to turn those words and use them against me, again, that's what's wrong with washington today. you know, we're moving on from this. i'm confident that hoosier voters will be moving on and be supporting us in big numbers in just 13 days. >> now, in his most recent statement, the romney campaign says, quote, governor romney disagrees with the comments and do not reflect mr. romney's views and disagree on the policy

of rape and incest and support him. erin, i'll start off with you. the new comments of mourdock, i spoke from hi heart. i spoke from hi principles. i spoke from my faith and if someone tries to turn and use my words against me, this's what's wrong with washington. >> i take richard mourdock at his word that's what he believes but we have separation of church and state in this country and a country that doesn't want to see abortion banned openly. those are way outside the mainstream of america and way inside the mainstream of the republican party today and paul ryan's position. the only difference right now is that some people like mitt romney want the government to be able to say is your story bad enough for you to have control over your body. >> we saw the republican party quickly turn on todd akin, led by in many ways governor romney. but governor romney's decided that in this case in indiana for now to stick with mourdock.

why? what's did difference here? >> well, i mean, i think at this point it's so late in the game and obviously you have republicans looking at the senate hoping to change that around so that they're in the majority. and i think in some ways people might think that there is a sort of difference in terms of what todd akin sunny aid and mourdock said. as your guest said, mourdock's position is same as paul ryan's and it's also the same as the republican party's platform. if you look at voters in the state like iowa, for instance, a lot of people that turn out at the polls will be evangelicals and mitt romney distancing himself not only akin and mourdock in a slight way and his own running mate so i think unless democrats are really able to make this an issue, perhaps around supreme court justices which, in fact, will matter whoever gets elected they're going to be able to appoint maybe one, two supreme court

justices. if they can make a convincing case it could matter but for now it looks like mitt romney is pretty successful in closing the gender gap. >> well, n ia, you talk about the fact it's late in the game and may be a reason why but, i mean, the first read team and others point out at this point, we know that mitt romney has tried to turn it in to a moderate candidate and saw that with the debate and had a drag with the far right in the party. the favorable/unfavorable inched up in the last nbc news/"wall street journal" poll and the gop's favor/unfavor at 36-43, lower than the democratic party and governor romney. he has a drag from the far right in his party. when you look at issues, the "usa today" gallup poll top issues for women in 12 swing states, 39% abortion, 19% jobs, 18% say health care, 16% say economy. so when you look at the numbers and the drag that he's getting from the far right, it would seem that a stronger comment or

stronger action may if the gender gap is closing it may actually close it if women see him taking a stand for them. >> that's right. but i think at this point, he doesn't want to do anything that's sort of makes news. so in this way, he's kind of saying, restating the position which is that he has agrees with exceptions in the case of the mother and rape and incest and putting that on the table but i think mitt romney has in fact tried to move to the cent we are the interview in iowa saying he didn't feel that there was any abortion legislation that would rise to the top of his agenda. >> yeah. >> and he has i think done himself some good by trying to essentially stiff arm the republican party, stiff arm the tea party, stiff arm evangelicals and i don't know how he can do that given the fact he has a running mate in paul ryan who does have the ideas about abortion which are outside the mainstream. >> irin, trying to stiff arm

that part of the party, let's take a look at the new dnc ad who says that you're bringing the people in the fold instead of stiff arming them. let's play the new dnc ad. >> it is something that god intended to happen. >> so much at stake. i hope you'll join me in supporting richard mourdock for u.s. senate. >> is this part of the problem? governor romney said there's no legislation that he would pursue regarding even legislation changes with a woman's right to choose. but then you have got this ad. this goes back to the where is he? where does he stand many. >> right. that's as steve mentioned before, he is running ads showing he's a moderate on women's health and trying to have this every way and the point is going to have to be very responsive to his party. his party made up of people like todd akin and paul ryan. they are his constituency and we

have a -- >> chosen to run from one, make another -- running mate and then keeping an ad up. most of them are not mad at him. they know that if he gets elected they're -- they're going to have him and be able to demand justices from the supreme court on down that are going to overturn roe v. wade and being patient and let him say anything he wants playing a long game here. >> long ball. thank you very much. thank you for joining us. love having you on. coming up, latest on the breaking news out of libya. there's been an arrest in that attack in benghazi at the u.s. consulate. new e-mails released reveal the state department and white house told a mill gant group claimed responsibility for the deadly attack in benghazi right after the attack. plus, in 2000, florida. in 2004, ohio. 2008, virginia. can you guess what state our first read team says will be the one to watch this year?

we'll reveal the answer after the break. get your map out. i have a cold... i took dayquil, but i still have a runny nose. [ male announcer ] dayquil doesn't treat that. huh? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus rushes relief to all your worst cold symptoms, plus it relieves your runny nose. [ sighs ] thank you! [ male announcer ] you're welcome. that's the cold truth!

but, dad, you've got... [ voice of dennis ] allstate. with accident forgiveness, they guarantee your rates won't go up

just because of an accident. smart kid. [ voice of dennis ] indeed. are you in good hands? we are following breaking news right now. the attack on the consulate in benghazi. officials in tunisia say they've arrested a man and nbc news has obtained e-mails showing the state department advised the white house two hours after the attack that a militant group had claimed responsibility for the attack. today, secretary of state hillary clinton stressed the importance of first gathering all of the information here. >> posting something on facebook is not in and of itself evidence. and i think it just underscores how fluid the reporting was at the time and continued for sometime to be. >> joining me now, international

editor of "time" jim frederic. thank you for coming on. >> sure. >> at this point we have not been able to confirm information. the state department is not commenting, the white house, as well, on this arrest that is reportedly have taken place in tunisia but reuters first obtained the e-mails and according to them, officials at the white house and the state department were advised two hours after attackers assaulted the consulate on september 11th that an islamic militant group claimed credit for the group. they obtained the e-mails of government sources requested anonymity and this group claimed responsibility. >> right. >> the secretary of state refers to facebook and twitter not credible sources but we know so much information sadly comes from those sources. >> yeah, no. i mean, this is an ongoing leak of bad news revolving around this terrorist attack that the administration seemed very comfortable calling it a terrorist attack in the first

eight, 12, 24 hours. and then, really it was spokesman jay carney and ambassador rice, i think, who are most on the hook for this because they were the most vehement over the next couple of days this looks like a spontaneous demonstration. >> right. >> where, you know, this doesn't need to be this difficult. this shouldn't be this hard for this administration. we had reporting on the first day of rpgs. >> if it shouldn't be this difficult, is it because of the political climate and so close to the election? >> well, no. i think this is one of the famous unforced errors talks about that the administration doesn't make. i think that they have tripped over their own feet on this one. and that they just for whatever reason i think that we need to know why between that 24-hour to 1-week period they decided to climb off the claim it was a terrorist attack. that's the big question is why were the talking point and the directives sent out to people like the spokesman and to ambassador rice that this was not a terrorist attack?

because it was -- it seemed to be self evident. >> right. especially from the e-mails coming down as the attack was happening. lindsey graham, senator, said that the cia and general petraeus should also be called on the mat regarding this. will we likely see that? >> well, yeah. i don't know. i think it's highly likely. i think that one of the biggest questions going forward is, this would have been put to bed weeks ago if they had just said that this is a terrorist attack. now it's a subject of debate. it's, you know, talking points for republicans, getting in the wait of the election and bad news for the obama administration. i don't know if it goes to directs of the cia and fbi and national security council and all that but more contained to an administration that they just -- they look like they can't get the stories straight. >> all right. well, thank you very much, jim. we'll have more information on the breaking news a there's been

an arrest made obtaining the details. thank you. >> yeah. with about 300 hours until the first polls close on election day, yes, counting by the hours now, what combinations of states get the president to 272? and why florida, ohio and virginia could be rendered meaningless by one key battleground state out west. we'll have the answer, what state we're talking about, after the break.

welcome back. our nbc news first read team writes today if you want to know where the presidential campaign is being fought just look at all the candidate travel. today, president obama has been in iowa, headed to colorado, california and nevada while governor romney hits iowa and nevada for the second day. joining me now nbc news deputy political editor dominico

montenero. what you are doing is interesting. putting together scenarios of how the president might hit the magic number or governor romney. first up today, the president. you talk about colorado a lot and not -- what does chuck todd say? flova. i vowed i would not say that. that may not be the magic word. >> there's a path we're saying that president obama could win the election without winning florida, ohio or virginia but that map takes him out west and in the industrial midwest has to do well but taking ohio out of the scenario, if obama were to win wisconsin and iowa, as well as nevada where he's favored currently, that would leave us colorado. if romney wins florida, ohio and virginia, you would be sitting at 266 for romney, 263 for obama and we could be up very late on election night looking to see what happens out west in colorado, 1:00, 2:00 in the morning for us to be able to say

who the president of the united states is. >> you have right now paul ryan campaigning in ohio and focused so much on ohio for obvious reasons. the auto bailout affecting white middle class workers in that state. the union issue, as well. here's colorado and i think you referred to it as the rodney dangerfield if some of our younger audience members remember. the no respect state as he was in the come eddic world. >> that's right. colorado, you know, in that respect, it's been getting no respect because it's in one way hard place to travel to and out west so a lot of the eastern time zones maybe don't pay as much attention to colorado but telling people to pay attention because it's important. i mean, the fact is obama could win without florida, ohio and virginia with colorado in his column but colorado is nowhere close to being decided.

it is a pure toss-up right now with anything maybe a tip of the scale to romney at this point. >> you know, you also go down the line of the state that is have mattered in that prior election cycles. virginia, ohio, we all know what went down in florida. what does it say you're so closely watching colorado for the president's success if he is to win as opposed to some of the other states that we followed in the past? what's different about this election cycle and maybe even about the voter now that that's where our eyes have transitioned to colorado? >> we are going to be watching all of those states. there's nine states, you know, florida's still very tight. ohio, the president has an edge but romney could pull up there. so, the fact is those are states that we have to watch. colorado is interesting just because of how it, you know, electorally could help obama over the edge or romney over the edge. what it does say, nevada and

colorado were both states that president bush won in 2004. we're talking about them now because of the demographic change, especially with hispanics. >> right. >> that's the reason why in nevada you are seeing it move toward obama and why in colorado with just a slightly smaller population of hispanics, you know, a more independent-minded voter you have this -- you have these two states now in play for a democrat when they really weren't as much in 2004. >> all right. thank you. we actually ask our audience and tease which state to be the changing factor out west and a couple of people tweeted the right answer of colorado but so many thought we were going to be talking about nevada. which is so interesting. again, no respect for colorado at least by some. thank you very much. >> you're welcome. right now, "the new york times" nate silver predict the race 288 electoral votes for president obama, 250 for governor romney. and next up, i'll talk with "the

daily beast" about where he says the race stands today and why you can't believe all the spin one side has momentum over the other. here's things to know. check out the photo tweeted by president obama's twitter account. look closely at this. stop what you're doing. met with young kids in florida yesterday and not the president stealing the show. take a look up. let your eyes float up. look at the top of the page. oh! a little boy planting a wet one on the face of a girl he apparently had a crush on. i love her hair style. i wore that same hair style many times as a young girl and now your eyes from that adorable picture to an image in ohio. congressman paul ryan giving his first major speech on poverty in america and america's rise. let's take a listen. >> too many old inequities persist. too many children, especially african-american and hispanic

children, are sent in to mediocre schools and expected to perform with excellence. african-american and hispanic children make up only 38% of the nation's overall students but they're 69% of the students in the schools identified as lowest performing. that's unacceptable. we owe every child a chance to succeed in life in this country. [ applause ] in the words of abraham lincoln, we owe them an unfettered chance in the race of life. upward mobility is the central promise of life in america. but right now americans' engines of upward mobility aren't working the way they should. mitt romney and i are running because we believe that americans are better off in a

dynamic, free enterprise-based economy that fosters economic growth and opportunity and upward mobility. instead of a stagnant government directed economy that stifles job creation and fosters government dependency. [ applause ] >> again, we'll keep an eye and ear on the speech by congressman paul ryan referring to restoring america's promise of upward mobility. you heard him there specifically refer to education and african-american children, especially. congressman ryan saying that mitt romney will deliver real e forms for real recovery. first major speech of this election cycle. 13 days before you all go out and vote, those of you who have not done early voting. what if there was a new way to deal with money

that focused less on fees and more... on what matters? maybe your bank account is taking too much time and maybe it's costing too much money. introducing bluebird by american express and walmart. your alternative to checking and debit. it's loaded with features, not fees. because we think your money should stay where it belongs. with you. the value you expect. the service you deserve. it feels good to bluebird. get it at your local walmart. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80%

of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you thousands in out-of-pocket costs. to me, relationships matter. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i know i'll be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and you never need a referral to see a specialist. so don't wait. call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare... and which aarp medicare supplement plan might be best for you. there's a wide range to choose from. we love to travel -- and there's so much more to see. so we found a plan that can travel with us. anywhere in the country.

[ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. remember, all medicare supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you thousands a year in out-of-pocket costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now -- and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. johan comes in a porcelain vessel, crafted with care by a talented blonde from sweden. ♪ smooth, rich, never bitter, gevalia.

well, recent polls show the presidential race locked up nationally. you know that by now with president obama currently having a slight advantage in key swing states but when it comes to governor romney's supporters the daily beast writes you might think, oh, that would mean momentum and yet the conventional wisdom of congealing right now that romney is going to win the election factually, well, this isn't remotely justifiejustified. conservatives know this but constructing an alternate reality. michael joins us now. the title is reality versus fantasy. you talked a lot about this past debate but the bottom line and the sense we've moved past the debate, the ground game and the beginning of the end game, michael. so what do you see or feel at this point? when you look at the numbers, you look at the strategies of both campaigns. >> well, romney is trying and his people are trying in leaked

background quotes to certain media outlets to convey this sense that they're ahead, that they have all the momentum. almost a sense of inevitably to convey. i've seen quotes saying, oh, we could get 305 electoral votes. we have this thing. quotes along those lines. it's not true. it's simply not true. they're jest trying to create it, they're trying to create a reality that isn't the objective reality but they're trying to create this other reality and hope that enough people in the press write it and it somehow becomes true. >> what, for example, you have some polls that indicate the female voters, the gap between the two candidates is closing. are you saying that the polls are wrong or the narrative that's being repeated by the media and the pundits out there is wrong? >> the narrative is wrong. i think the narrative hasn't quite caught up to the facts. the narrative still stuck in, tamr

tamron, post-first debate mode which is there's no question. romney won that debate and gained momentum and closed the gap. he got a bounce. however you want to put it. there's no doubt about any of those things but if you look at polling averages, and, you know, any individual poll can be plucked out that says almost anything but if you look at the averages of especially the representable polls, romney's momentum from that debate performance which was on october 3rd began to level off about october 14th, 15th and ever since then things ticked mildly back in the president's direction and he's more of i would say slight favorite but more of a slight favorite than october 15th and certain indices reflect that. >> you mentioned that just quickly that ohio some of the tightest battleground averages and real clear and ohio and president leading 47-45. florida, 46 for obama, 48 romney.

virginia, obama 48, 48 romney. colorado 47.6, 47.8 there. i mean, interesting mix of numbers. quickly, i have to ask you, when you wake up in the morning and try to assess where the race is, is that the horse race you're following right now? >> i don't obsess over every single poll. i look at nate silver and other websites to see what the averages of the big polls are. some i count more in my mind than others. but, you know, the bottom line fact is that when you climb to 270 electoral votes and discussed it with the previous guest obama has many more past that than romney does still right now. >> michael, thank you very much. we showed before you came on the latest nate silver average of numbers and he does have obama up right now. thank you so much. i greatly appreciate it. always a pleasure. developing now, governor romney campaigning in nevada, day two of the governor on the

ground in that state. we'll be right back. estor. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i see a world bursting with opportunities. india, china, brazil, ishares, small-caps, large-caps, ishares. industrials. low cost. every dollar counts. ishares. income. dividends. bonds. i like bonds. ishares. commodities. diversification. choices. my own ideas. ishares. i want to use the same stuff the big guys use. ishares. 8 out of 10 large, professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. introducing the ishares core, etfs for the heart of your portfolio. tax efficient and low cost building blocks to help you keep more of what you earn. call your advisor. visit ishares.com. ishares. ishares. yeah, ishares. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing.

welcome back. time now for the "news nation" gut check. the romney campaign will continue to support candidate mourdock despite the comments of pregnancy from rape is god's intention a. romney spokesperson says governor romney disagrees with the mourdock comments but will not pull down an ad endorsing him that went up just today. what does your gut tell you? will he be damaged by the mourdock comment? cast that vote and that does it for this edition of "news nation." thank you for joining me and my team. we'll be back here for you tomorrow. in fact, tomorrow president obama in florida and virginia. he then heads to my kind of town, my hometown for ten years, chicago, for early voting there. governor romney will be in ohio. i'm going to talk with colorado

democratic congresscome degette and columnist jim warren. we haven't seen him in a while. "the cycle" is up next. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha!

this reduced sodium soup says it may help lower cholesterol, how does it work? you just have to eat it as part of your heart healthy diet. step 1. eat the soup. all those veggies and beans, that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. bp has paid overthe people of bp twenty-threeitment to the gulf. billion dollars that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy to help those affected and to cover cleanup costs. today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america. we support nearly 250,000 jobs and invest more here than anywhere else. we're working to fuel america for generations to come. our commitment has never been stronger. [ male announcer ] it's time for medicare open enrollment. are you ready? time to compare plans and see what's new. you don't have to make changes, but it's good to look.

maybe you can find better coverage, save money, or both. and check out the preventive benefits you get after the health care law. ♪ medicare open enrollment. now's the time. visit medicare.gov or call 1-800-medicare. ♪ starts with arthritis pain and a choice. take tylenol or take aleve, the #1 recommended pain reliever by orthopedic doctors.