and keeping the economy growing. all of it goes back to the looming fiscal cliff. $700 billion in tax hikes that will take place on january 1st unless there's a deal. >> he's going to reach out in a bipartisan way. . he's going to stick to his position on the revenues, but say we have to work together and i'm willing to do my share and lead my party. >> that 396 referring to the bush tax cuts. to make a deal, the president will need to work with congress, especially house republicans and they have been opposed to tax increases. we will hear from john baoehner too for the republican party. >> raising taxes on small business people is the wrong prescription. >> raising tax rates is

unacceptable. and frankly it couldn't even pass the house. putting increased revenues on the table but through reforming our tax code. >> i want to bring in ruth marcus, columnist at "the washington post" and perry bacon, an msnbc contributor. what's your sense of this? are we setting up for a feisty but doable deal? but is it also possible we're in for a battle of epic proportions? >> yes to both questions. i think feisty is a great word. i think it is doable. whether that means it's going to get done is another question. and speaker boehner is in a delicate position. he would like to e get something done, but he's got an unruly boisterous caucus to be managing. >> i heard from a senator that he's going to need to bring in eric cantor somehow. he's going to have to enlist him

if it's going to get done. we did get the preview yesterday. what's the president's strategy going to be? does he need to set an agenda for how to move forward? >> he's going to speak in generalities. he's not going to lay out a detailed, here's what i want to do five-point plan. i think that's smart. the best approach is to work this through congress with the white house being involved as well. take it as a patient process. >> let me play a little more from chuck schumer talking about john boehner's position. >> boehner wants to compromise. that's why he gave that speech. he's not a hard right guy. he's a mainstream conservative. >> here's a suggestion in his column titled "let's not make a deal." mr. obama should hang tough declaring himself willing if necessary to hold his ground

even at the cost of letting his opponents inflict damage on a shaky economy. stand your ground and don't give in to threats. no deal is better than a bad deal. ruth, who is going to blink? >> i hope it really doesn't get to that. paul krugman has a nobel prize in economics and i don't. but it doesn't all hit at once. but a lot of it hits and the damage to the sort of animal spirits of the economy, the confidence of business leaders in the economy, the confidence of other countries in our ability to get our economic fiscal house in order would be damaging. so no deal is a very bad deal for the united states. somebody is going to blink in the end. i hope it's actually both sides to some extent. but the argument that you're hearing from some sectors of the democratic party that going over

the fiscal cliff isn't such a bad thing, i'm not with that argument because i think you go over the cliff and you don't have a rip cord and your parachute doesn't open and boom. >> when you look at the numbers, when you sit down and look at the numbers it's pretty scary. there have been worse estimates, but this is from the congressional budget office. it would go up to 9.1%. our democrats and the president so worried about going off the cliff that they could make a deal they are unhappy with? >> i don't think you'll see t t that. the key things to watch is mitch mcconnell knows how the house tea party republicans think about this. they are the ones that drove it to the bitter end. i don't think the democrats are going to give in immediately or any time. the notion that the rich are

going to keep pressing and boehner was saying, i don't want to raise tax rates, but he seemed open to raise taxes in some way on the wealthy. there's definitely room here. i don't think we'll be in the situation we were two years ago where the debt creeling went on and no one was willing to compromise. >> i want to bring in chris van holen. everybody's parsing his wards. what did you hear from john boehner? he said he's willing to budge on revenue, not hike taxes, but is that enough. what are republicans willing to give here. >> the jury is still out. speaker boehner should put his r revenue plan on the table. i mean based on this republican theory that's been proven wrong by history that somehow by giving folks at the top of the income ladder a tax break, you'll create all this economic activity and it will pay for

itself and not increase the deficit. we know that failed because what happened after we tried that last time was jobs went down and the deficit went up. so i think the speaker shoumd do what he says that he wants to do. put this out in public. the president has put his plan in public. it was a central part of the debate. saying that folks at the higher end should pay more to reduce our deficit because if we don't ask them to chip in more, it means everybody else gets hit harder. >> you heard what he said. we're not going to raise taxes on small business. and for republicans, small business is pretty much anybody making over $250,000 a year. . >> what we learned from the debates is all businesses include companies like bain capital. they include some of the fortune companies. they use the language of small business to provide tax breaks for wealthy entities. but if you really care about the

economy, which we all should, then we e need to look at things like extending the payroll tax cut for the year or its e equivalent. the nonpartisan group has said that's much more important to helping the fragile economy than providing a few folks at the top with another tax break. so we should be looking at those kind of measures that put a little more money in the pockets of 160 million americans who will go out and spend it rather than providing another tax break to those at the top. >> one of the toughest questions, entitlements. are you willing to make cuts in medicare and medicaid and social security? >> well, the issue is how we make those cuts and savings. so we should find savings in medicare. we should do it by building on the economies we have in the affordable care account, which says we should move away from the fee for service system that drives up cost and move toward a system where we reward providers

for the quality of care they provide. the private insurance industry has begun to move in that direction too. what will we oppose is the voucher idea, that shifts the rising health care costs on to the backs of seniors. that's not a solution we can suppo support. we are looking for ways to build on the affordable care act, to contain costs in the overall system, not just pass them on to seniors. >> chuck schumer just suggested that it's no on social security. are you a no on that as well? >> well, we need to look at the long-term solution to social security. that's not as pressing an immediate problem, but the so sooner we start on it, the better. e we should deal with that on its own merits. that shouldn't be part of the conversation where we're using social security revenue for the purpose of hitting your deficit reduction targets. even simpson bowles they dealt

separately with social security. i don't agree with the specifics, but even that commission dealt with it separately. the last point i would make is if you look at simpson bowles in terms of the deficit targets they achieved, they assume d we would have the revenue to go back to the 39% clinton rates. that was part of the baseline assumptions in simpson bowles. it's important to keep that in mind when we talk about the balanced approach we need. cuts and also the revenues. >> that's the numbers part of it. there's also the political component of this. it was said all along that this is going to have to wait. we're going to have to deal with the fiscal cliff after the election. but most of the tea partiers were reelected in the house. i'm wondering how you think this is going to move forward. are you more worried about john ba boehner or eric cantor? >> the republicans are going to

have to work out their politics in the caucus. some of the most high profile tea party members were defeated. i think in the senate races, republicans had a strong reaction to their tea party candidates. but i'm not counting on a conversion of the tea party members, but i am counting on the fact that the fiscal cliff creates a potential for risks, but also for opportunities. i think it's absolutely unsustainable for the republicans to continue to take the position they have, which is that nobody in the country gets extended tax relief until very high income earners. people like mitt romney get a bonus tax break. i don't think that's sustainable to tell the american people that they are holding out for bonus tax breaks for folks at the top at the expense of everybody else. that's not a sustainable position. i hope they come to that conclusion before january. after january, i think it would

be impossible for them to maintain that position and can hold up tax relief to 98% of the american people. tax relief for 100% of the american people on their first $250,000 of income. >> congressman, good to have you on the program. thank you. let me bring our guests back in. totally different topic, but it's been an emotional time. now that the election has wrapped up, you could really see how emotional in the video that the obama campaign released last night. the president talking to young volunteers in chicago the day after he won. here's a clip of it. >> even before last night's results, i felt that the work i had done in running for office had come full circle. because what you guys have done means that the work that i'm doing is approved. and i'm really proud of that. i'm really proud of all of you.

[ applause ] >> ruth, you have covered this president. what did you think when you saw that? >> i thought it was very powerful. i not only covered this president but bill clinton who would drcry at the drop of the hat. very e emotional guy. i remember being in little rock in 1992 when he was introducing his new team right after he was elected and he got teary then. and so it was interesting when clinton did it, but it's very moving in a sense because this president, president obama is so much less publicly emotional, publicly demonstrative that it really sort of has a big bang when he does seem not overwhelmed, but moved as he did

yesterday. >> i was remembering when ed musky had a tear in his eye. he said it was from a cold. remember when hillary clinton got choked up and people were saying she's a woman, she can't lead the free world if she's going to get all teary. now between john boehner who has cried more than a few time, the president, have things changed? i'm wondering what you think. there's so much history on the shoulders of this man and history would have written it so differently had he not won. i wonder what your take on it is. >> i wrote about it after the election. the fact that this president would have been viewed differently if he had lost. the first black presidency would have been considered more controversial. this was a big moment for him. what he did in 2008 was affirmed by americans.

like we said, president obama not known for showing a lot of emotion. i don't think i've ever seen him cry. i'm not surprised by this. this was a difficult election. it was a difficult four years at times. i was not shocked by it. it seems like a genuine emotion he was showing there. >> go ahead, ruth. >> quickly, i think you asked a good question about ed musky and hillary clinton. i think teary is the new normal. it's not risky the way it was for senator musky back when there was a dispute. and i think it didn't turn out to be risky at all for hillary clinton. there was a question about whether if the girl cried it was a problem. but it's not risky for male politicians because they are sensitive new-age guys and we reached a new point in the c crying game. >> remember alan aldon they

thought he was so sensitive? good to see you both. >> thanks, chris. the speculation about the 2016 contenders began well before tuesday. but now a new public policy polling survey asked iowa democrats and republicans last weekend who they would like to see as their nominee. for the democrats, hillary clinton the overwhelmingly top pick. 58% followed by joe biden. 13% chose someone else. and andrew cuomo and elizabeth warren. the republicans top favorites mike huckabee, chris christie, marco rubio and paul ryan. jeb bush at 11%. guess who is going to iowa? marco rooubio will be there to speak at a birthday celebration r for terry branstad. from psoriatic arthritis hit, even the smallest things became difficult. i finally understood what serious joint pain is like. i talked to my rheumatologist and he prescribed enbrel. enbrel can help relieve pain, stiffness, and stop joint damage. because enbrel, etanercept, suppresses your immune system,

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one pretty important task is

cabinet replacement. some members have stated they will step aside for the president's second term with maybe six positions up for grabs. joining me is the president for the center for american progress neeratt tandon massachusetts senator john kerry, susan rice, national security adviser tom donilon. although there's been talk about the benghazi attacks may have hurt her chances. is kerry the front runner? >> kerry has a lot going for him because he has negotiated around the world. he's been senate foreign relations chair. he obviously spent a lot of time with the president. we shouldn't underestimate how important @ to have a real

chemistry with the president. there's a lot of trust to develop. obviously president obama and secretary of state hillary clinton had a great chemistry and really relied on each other. there was a trust built up there. so i think that's the real test is whether the president can really trust john kerry to speak for him and he e spent a lot of time with him recently. so i think he has a good sense of that by now. >> there's been a lot of talk about by the president about bipartisanship. this is one area where people have suggested maybe he'd reach across the aisle and pick a republican. names mentioned included jon huntsman, chuck hagel and colin powell. . where would you put the percentages of likelihood on that? >> this is a place where you really need to have a very good relationship developed. this is a role where the

secretary of state really speaks for the president when she or he is meet iing with world leaders and really has to represent the united states. there can't be any daylight between the state department and the white house. so i think the idea of putting someone who is bipartisan is one thing, but has to know where the president is. so i expect him to go with a democrat or someone who has served in his administration. >> ray lahood is indicated he doesn't plan to stick around. not usually a high position, but the president keeps talking about infrastructure. he's made this a major push for practical as well as economic reasons. possible contenders for that position? los angeles mayor, ed rendell, congressman steve latuorette of ohio. what's important in that decision? >> you mentioned infrastructure. that's a critical part of this

job. which is really selling the infrastructure proposals. we have lost sight of it, but we still have work to do on jobs and infrastructure is key in the president's agenda. so he needs someone who can make the case around the country. stepping back we need to look at the diversity in the cabinet and make sure there's representation of what america looks like. in a sense, stronger numbers amongst latinos and african-americans than many people expected. as you look at the entire cabinet, the white house will also look at diversity. but i don't know all of those candidates actually have a lot going for them. >> we only have a few seconds left but toif ask you about treasury secretary. nobody sleep when is you're in the cabinet but timothy geithner probably got less sleep than

most people given the economic circumstances right now. talk to me about who could replace timothy geithner or what kind of person. >> well, you know, treasury secretary is, you know, equal, at least equal to the state department in the importance of the role. so especially in the negotiations that are coming up. i expect timothy geithner to stay through most of the negotiations and i hope they conclude soon. i think this is an area where the president works extremely closely with the treasury secretary. so that relationship is important. social security also important for the treasury secretary to be able to represent the interests of the financial community and the interests of the administration. i mean when i say interest of the financial community, i mean when he speaks or she speaks and i think it would be great if we e had a woman in this role, when he or she speaks in capitals on

the war in china and europe, they speak for the united states economy. so i think of that having some skill to do that is significant. and i think the president this will be one of the most important decisions the president makes. >> we'll all be watching very closely. great to talk to you. thank you. >> gabrielle giffords's says facing the man who tried to kill her was intense. jared loughner was sentenced to life in prison for the shooting in tucson. he told loughner, you may have put a bullet through her head, but you haven't put a dent in her spirit. he's positive loughner heard every word. >> her eyes were locked on his the entire time as i read our statement. his expression would change. he was paying attention to what we were saying. wasn't really happy at points.

i almost felt like during that whole few minutes that he and gabbi were having the staring test. >> though he and her both own guns, he hopes lawmakers will take up that issue soon. if you are one of the millions of men

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september and even though he ran unopposed they encouraged the write-in campaign. and can you imagine mitch mcconnell versus ashley judd? if you read only one thing this morning, "time" magazine answers an interesting question. did the $6 billion in campaign spending at least help the economy or did it just annoy all of us? i added that last part. it's up on our facebook page. and a trip to the one place with the new ideas that help us pull it all together. from the things that hang and shine... ...to the things that sparkle and jingle. all while saving the things that go in our wallet. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. right now, get an assortment of martha stewart living ornamen,s

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republicans. gop officials tell "the washington post" they are planning a series of voter-based polls and focus groups and talking with volunteers, donors and staff members trying to find ways to broaden their appeal after being shocked by tuesday's results. and the blame game continues. american cross roads founder

karl rove under fire from donors and party officials for the lack of results trying to divert attention by taking aim at the president. >> he succeeded by suppressing the e vote. by saying to people you may not like who i am and i know you can't bring yourself to vote for me, but i'm going to paint him as a rich guy that only cares about himself. >> let's bring in the communications director and former press secretary for the congressional committee and msnbc political analyst and communications director karen finney, good morning to you both. jonathan, senator chuck schumer fired back at what karl rove just said there. take a look. >> karl rove's reputation is going to take a significant hit. if cross roads were a business and rove was the ceo he'd be fired for getting a poor return for his investors. >> the senator went on to say

that american cross roads will be less of a factor in the midterms. jonathan, is he write? >> he's not at all. we have been talking to a lot of donors. everyone who is disappointed with results fully understands the contribution that we had in the 2012 election. the critical thing that gets lost with all of this analysis is that the president did a very, very good job of raising a lot of money. he outspent by $154 million in tv ads. and mitt romney was buying all his ad time late when meant he was buying higher prices. a lot of the outside groups were balancing out a really good and well-executed campaign by the president. but one where they had a disadvantage. >> i heard that from a lot of republicans that it it would have been worse had the money not gone to places. >> well argue with the numbers then. >> that's a great spin and i have been in your position, exactly that position so i feel for you. but let's be honest about what

happened in this election. what happened in this election is that the voter suppression tactics that the republicans tried to put in place did not work. in fact, it had an inverse effect that it angered african-american and latino voters they were determined to stand in lines eight hours just to early vote. on top of that, yes, the president's campaign had a masterful turnout operation -- based frankly, and this is the irony of all this, there's a bit of karma, this is the guy who in 2004 was bragging about the 72-hour plan and microtargeting and how he knew all the voters he had to turn out. there was no reason why on the republican side you couldn't have had that kind of operation. it was there. the technology was there. howard dean my former boss was honest about the fact we were trying to imlate a lot of those concepts and ideas. we had a superior campaign and candidate. but also when you talk about the amount of spending, the amount

of outside money your organization and others spent against this president and against some of our candidates like a sherrod brown who was outspent 3 to 1 and still prevailed says a lot about the strength of our message and the inadequacy of trying to use anger points to motivate people, trying to use hate to motivate people and having a message about this country and inclusive of everyone. >> six of the eight candidates you supported did lose along with mitt romney. foster frieze said too much money was spent on advertising. donald trump tweeted that karl rove should be fired. did you make mistakes in how you spent the money? >> i want to address something that karen said. i don't know of any ads that were hateful. go and look at them on our youtube channel. that's a lot of spin right over there.

on the senate side, we did and i'll be the first person to admit have problems on the recruitment side. over the last two election cycles, republicans lost at least six senate seats not because of bad messaging coming from our party, but we had candidates outraised and not ready for the platform that a senate candidate where there's an enormous amount of scrutiny. so instead of cutting the debt and taxes we ended up on a lot of other issues that should never have been debated because we had weak candidates. >> let e me ask you the big picture candidate. billions of dollars spent and we ended up not that far off from where we started with barack obama ahead. are people going to look at this when we have a little distance and take a breath and is this going to change the way money is donated going forward? or the suggestion from jonathan is that the donors are happy and it's going to be more of the same? >> i hope we do.

consider $50 billion in damages now that we're looking at the superstorm sandy. how disgusting is that? i do like the fact that at the end of the day what motored the most is individual votes which overpowered the money spent. donors will on both sides have some frustration about the amount of money that was spent and was that effective? at a point, i don't think people cared about the television advertising. it was too much. and i think we have a real problem with money in politics. it's going to become part of the conversation going forward. maybe campaigns will look at how they spend the money in terms of ground game and other ways to reach voters instead of so much on advertising and negative advertising and sort of lying about things like welfare and the other kinds of things. but i certainly think we need to reign in the amount of money being spent. >> if television ads weren't effective, he wouldn't have outspent mitt romney. there are things that outside groups can do. we run a lot of ads.

>> you guys think you lost this on television ads? you're in for a two two years, my friend. >> the debate will continue. thanks to both of you. black friday is creeping more and more into thursday. which is thanksgiving. mandi drury is here with what it's come to. >> you've got a number of retailers like walmart, sears and others upping the holiday shopping season. black friday sales are starting at 8:00 p.m. on thanksgiving night for walmart. it's the earliest start time yet. kmart has been open on the thursday for the past few years. but others like macy's is going to open at the stroke of midnight. last year 24% of shoppers said they were at the store at midnight on black friday just

two years before that i believe the number was only about 9%. so we'll see by bringing it forward and forward whether the numbers go up and whether or not it steals sales from later on in the year as well. >> great reviews for the new "bond" movie this weekend. it's not just at the box office they think they are going to make a lot of money. >> the film has a record number of brands and product placement deals. you have sony's electronics, laptops, phones, hooin ken beers, these deals are generating $40 million in product placement revenue. the question i think though is whether or not it's going to turn off the fans because it's to blazen. >> reviews have been very good. i'm probably going to see it. thank you.

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that. it's pretty clear that the president was reelected. obama care is the law of the land. >> but you won't be spending the time next year trying to repeal obama care. >> there may be parts of it that we believe need to be changed. e we may do that. no decisions at this point. >> joining me now is jonathan alter. good to see you. we both survived. republican party has run against obama care at every level ever since it was passed. what happens now? >> elections have consequences. and history renders verdicts. and history has rendered a verdict. obama care is the law of the land. it will be amended around the edges the say way social security was enacted in 1935 or medicare in 1965. >> but are you talking about the kind of amendments that are going to set up a fight? >> no. the fight is is over.

this is settled. so john boehner can try to fix things that don't work that maybe the republicans will bring to the attention of the administration but the fear that a lot of people had, and i had my own fear, where if you have somebody with a preexisting condition they will be uninsurable and you'll have to sell your house or go bankrupt to pay medical bills. that's now part of america's past. >> i heard that a lot on the campaign trail. people brought that up independently. i didn't ask them a question about it, but they brought it up. >> this is a huge thing. we talk and we have on msnbc talk about the various news. in the long range view of american history, this is what people will remember. that we are no longer going to

discriminate against people because they are sick. >> states must notify washington next friday if they are going to set up the new health care exchanges. 17 states are on track to set up those exchanges. those are the states in green. the red ones are the ones that decided nod to do it. rick perry of texas and rick scott of florida have drawn a line against helping out in any way this law. so is this battle really more about the governors now? >> it is. and some of the governors may not want the money, but they are getting a 9 to 1 match from the federal government. so they are saying we're going to turn down this money from washington to help people in our state. when that starts to filter down into the political process of some of those states, the governors may begin to back off. >> do you think chris christie, who started to do this and kind of put all the mechanisms in

place but said they wanted to see the outcome of the election, could they lead some of the reluctant governors? >> we'll see them moving for it. there are some bumps in the road. not all of this bill -- there's a lot of moving pieces. but the main elements, the medicaid expansion, for instance, will begin to proceed because the states have real cash crisis when it comes to medicaid. so huge result of the election. if the ryan plan had been enacted, which would have likely happened if romney had won, you would have seen 40% reductions in medicaid. the poor and the elderly who depend on it really, really hurt. now you're going to see an expansion of medicaid. but also some cost saving mechanism that will kick in. >> jonathan alter, are you going to sleep this weekend?

>> i hope so. >> today's tweet of the day. injecting a little humor into the fight. peter writes, the best part of obama care is that all medical ailments can be quickly diagnosed by most any website. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

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forget barack obama and mitt romney. there's another star in this election. his name? nate silver, the blogger who accurately predicted the election's outcome. we talked to him about method to his menace. when i was in middle america, i was shocked at how many people said, do you know nate silver? >> his name is really catching fire. i said i don't want to insult you, can i call you a nerd or what would you call yourself?

he said, yeah. he's becoming what of a celebrity. his blog called 538 which represents the number of electoral votes is becoming the one to watch come election time. >> reporter: president obama may have been the big winner this week, but coming in a close second, new york blogger, status stigs and self-described geek, nate silver. >> lord and god of the al ra rhythm. >> reporter: silver's 538 blog was pretty close to perfect in predicting the result. he nailed the outcome in all 50 states. >> when you were a kid, did you have all the answers? >> i think i always had a lot of questions. that's what smart people do. >> reporter: looking for a better way to pick the candidates, he created his own formula for playing the odds in pl political races. one he's detailed in his new book called "the sayingal and the noise." >> people tend to see all the polls and see the fluctuations in the polls and get distracted

by it. i call it noise as opposed to signal. >> romney/ryan will win with 281 votes. . >> avoiding the spin of talking heads, silver sticks to the numbers, averaging statewide polls, factoring in for uncertainty, and running a variety of scenarios for how these probabilities would play out. >> when we say obama had a 91% of winning the electoral college, when we looked at his combination, he won 91% of those and romney won 10%. >> like jonah hill's character in the movie "money ball", he got his start in player performance. >> do you think you're the jonah hill of politics? >> maybe. or he's the nate silver. i'm not sure. >> reporter: with four more years for the president, nate has his own vision for the country. >> math does not need to be intimidating. it can be fun and interesting

and useful. >> you're making it kind of cool. >> hopefully. hopefully kids will pursue more math and science education. we need more of that to compete in this country. >> sales of his book are any indication, math took a big step up in the coolness factor this week. it rose to number two on amazon just behind the latest installment of "diary of a whimpy kid." >> thank you so much. that's going to wrap up this hour and this week of chris jansing. i'm chris jansing. thomas is up next. >> thanks, everybody. coming up next hour, which speaker boehner can the president believe? obama care is the law of the land or the one that tweets about attacks on the health care law? our power panel is going to weigh in on that. then the lessons learned from 2012.

ben jealous is going to join me. and wouldn't you have liked to be a fly on the wall in the campaign? we're going to have the insight about the unknown moments with mitt romney. [ male announcer ] when was the last time something made your jaw drop? campbell's has 24 new soups that will make it drop over, and over again. ♪ from jammin' jerk chicken, to creamy gouda bisque. see what's new from campbell's. it's amazing what soup can do. when you lost the thing you can't believe you lost.. see what's new from campbell's.

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constipated? yeah. mm. some laxatives like dulcolax can cause cramps.

but phillips' caplets don't. they have magnesium. for effective relief of occasional constipation. thanks. [ phillips' lady ] live the regular life. phillips'. good morning. i'm thomas roberts. setting the tone, two hours from now the president will deliver his first official remarks since his reelection victory. he's calling on congress to enact a tsunami of automatic tax and spending cuts that could spend the country spiraling into a recession. before that, minutes from now, we'll hear from john bane oehne. he's hopeful they can meet in the middle and bring the country back from the brink. >> we're going to be able to find common ground to avoid this fiscal cliff and find a way to work together. >> but by when? by january 1st? >> i would hope