>> we heard that from congressman ryan who said he has great respect for toomey and will listen to whatever he has to say. >> wonderful. thank you for joining us, everyone. i'm going to wake up joe who's face down in his office right now not feeling very well. if it's way too early, it's time for "morning joe." but now it's time for "the daily rundown" with chuck. have a great day. done deal. here we go. key senators set to speak shortly as momentum has suddenly shifted in the president's favor for changing the country's gun laws. and the bluster fueling a republican filibuster quiets down. also this morning, a deep dive into what's really going on in north korea. we'll talk with a veteran u.s. diplomat who's one of the few americans who have actually sat at the negotiating table with the combative country. and could wiener be a winner again? find out what the former congressman has to say about the tawdry twitter tale that forced him out of office and the possibility that he might seek a

city hall comeback. wow. thank you so steve and ted miller of denville, new jersey, for that masterpiece. now let's get to my first reads of the morning. it's busy. after it looked like gun legislation would stall this week, and a republican filibuster might gain some traction, momentum has swung back the other way. two key senators have made a deal to expand background checks. pennsylvania, pat toomey and west virginia's joe manchin hammered the details out in the compromise last night. they plan to announce what they've come to at an 11:00 presser later this morning. >> we're going to be very -- very adamant about protecting those rights of law-abiding gun

owners. with that being said gun show loop hom loopholes will be closed hopefully. >> the deal expands background checks to cover all sales at gun shows and online. it contains significant exceptions for family transfers and a few other circumstances. devil is always in the details. sources close to the negotiations say the senators have circulated their proposal to the nra. the nra has yet to comment on the compromise. it's highly unlikely they would support it, but they could elect not to oppose the bill. in other words, they won't include it in their ratings of lawmakers. by the way, both toomey and manchin have "a" ratings from the nra. this is where the filibuster could come in. we know three senate republicans, ted cruz, rand paul and mike lee are still planning to filibuster and keep the

debate from beginning. as of tuesday night they hadn't ruled out standing on the floor and talking for hours just like rand paul's recent filibuster on drones. meanwhile, the 14 republican senators including minority leader mitch mcconnell have threatened to filibuster the start of this debate. there is now nervousness among gop leadership that doing so could further damage an already battered republican brand. yesterday some of that concern went public. >> we have not seen the final draft of the legislation that was produced i understand last night. but i think it deserves a vote up or down. >> i'm a second amendment hawk. a gun owner. but i believe we actually could do something that would lessen the probability that a dangerous person would get a gun. >> it's not going to be filibustered. >> it's not going to. >> it's not. provided harry reid actually has an open amendment process. we ought to have this debate. america needs to know where we stand. >> at least 12 republican senators have said they will not

filibuster the bill before it comes to the floor. folks, my math is, you know, pretty basic. i think we're getting close to over60 votes to prevent a filibuster. senate aides say that debate will go all next week. frankly, it could stretch into the following week. the understanding is that the manchin/toomey compromise would be offered as the first amendment to reid's gun bill. reid has pledged votes on both an assault weapons ban, a ban on the high capacity magazines, and they're still trying to decide how to handle republican amendments. all part of the negotiating process. all that said it's not a coincidence that momentum has shifted in favor of advocates of new gun restrictions. eight newtown families spent yesterday going literally senate office to senate office privately making direct appeals to those senators. the debate has been passionate on both sides. yesterday it turned very personal for majority leader harry reid when he invoked his father's suicide on the senate floor. >> sometimes people in a fit of

passion purchase a handgun to do bad things with it. even as my dad did, kill themselves. waiting a few days, helps. >>. today first lady michelle obama will make a rare speech on a contentious issue she's headed to her hometown of chicago to discuss the city's wave of gun violence. after speaking at a luncheon by mayor rahm emmanuel she'll go to harper high school. normally on the day the president releases his budget, the story of the day, today it may not be the story even of the hour. at 11:00, just when senators toomey and manchin are announcing their background check deal, is when the president is expected to speak on his 2014 budget in the rose garden. i say scheduled. perhaps they wait. his budget comes two months late after the house and senate have already passed their budgets for next year. we previewed the president's

plan last week. now we have some of the fine print. the president will roll out a $3.77 trillion spending plan today which the white house says will shave $1.8 trillion off the deficit in the next decade. though much of that savings will go toward replacing the sequester. it's not really new deficit reduction. it includes $580 billion in additional revenue relative to the end of the year tax deal. from tax reform that closes loopholes for wealthier americans. it cuts $400 billion in spending from mandatory programs such as farm subsidies and defense and not defense discretionary programs. many of these cuts were the ones the president had on the table with boehner in the final deal, by the way. cuts $400 billion from medicare mostly made up of reductions to providers. $230 billion by simply adjusting the way inflation is calculated. the so-called chain cpi critics say will cut social security benefits. by the way, that also actually raises some taxes because it impacts how tax brackets and where you go in your tax

bracket. the president also proposes $50 billion in new infrastructure spending. it also includes several now proposals for universal pre-k paid for with a new tobacco tax and expands the child care tax credit for the middle class. the conference call previewing the president's budget, senior administration officials called it a -- not a starting point but a sticking point. they said hammering out a deal with republicans may be, quote, a long and windy path but it's possible. then they added, if the view of the leadership or the view of the house is my way or the highway, we're going to do the paul ryan budget, mitt romney economic plan or nothing, then the answer will be nothing. this morning congressman paul ryan responded saying, quote, the devil is in the details but the plan, he says, looks like a status quo budget. >> the real question i want to know is when does he balance the budget? does he propose to ever balance the budget? there are some small changes in medicare. we don't think more provider cuts work. that just means providers will stop providing medicare for medicare beneficiaries. but means testing. that's something we agree with.

we'll see what the chain cpi proposal looks like. that's not really a fundamental reform of entitlement programs. it's more of a statistical reform. >> of course, as we pointed out before, neither the right or left is happy with this budget that they previewed last friday. listen to this. majority leader harry reid was asked how much pushback he expects from senate democrats when it comes to the chain cpi. listen to this. >> do you think that's something that senate democrats could eventually get behind? >> we worked until 5:00 in the morning the last day we were here before the break. and we have our budget. it was passed. it's a good budget. it sets our priorities. i think the priorities of the american people and the democrats. the president has his budget. >> how about that? anyway, house democrats aren't yet ready to back the president's chained cpi proposal either as democratic whip steny hoyer told politico in an interview yesterday. that said, it's still april. and, therefore, still plenty of time to cut some type of budget

deal. real action really doesn't start until june, july and perhaps even august. to that end, the president phoned georgia republican senator johnny isakson a few weeks ago to ask his help in arranging a second dinner with perhaps a different group of republican senators. isakson handled the guest list. it's not been fully released. here's who we know is going to be at the dinner tonight taking police station at the white house, isakson, john thune. mike enzi, susan collins and even marco rubio. there's a chance he may not be able to attend due to a s scheduling conflict. finally this story. there's a reason hollywood has a hard time doing fictional stories about politics. because you can't make up the stuff that beats reality. it involves the senate's top republican, mitch mcconnell, a secret recording by a still anonymous source and the sometimes seedy underbelly of how modern political campaigns are put together. oh, by the way, the fbi is now involved. it started february 2nd, 2013. yes, ground hog day. and it's turning into a day that

mcconnell's team is reliving over and over again. thanks to a secret recording that's now public. on that day mcconnell held a very pub lib event. the grand opening of his louisville campaign headquarters. relatively unremarkable. in private his top advisers would get a lot more candid about some folks who could stand in the way of mcconnell's return to washington. most notably, actress ashley judd who was toying at that time with the idea of challenging mcconnell. it was a challenge mcconnell and his campaign took very seriously. and on that february 2nd, he and his political inner circle had a private meeting where in blunt language they outline for mcconnell's benefit how they could attack a judd candidacy. what they didn't know was that it would all be caught on tape. >> the first person we'll focus on, ashley judd. basically i would refer to her as sort of the oppo research situation where there's a haystack of needles. just because truly, there's such a wealth of material. >> mother jones magazine

obtained 11 1/2 minutes of sound from what is a two-hour meeting. basically the first 11 minutes of the meeting where the mcconnell team showed a potential willingness at times to get pretty personal and nasty. >> she's clearly, this sounds extreme, but she is emotionally unbalanced. i mean, it's been documented. jesse can go in chapter and verse from her auto biography. >> yesterday judd who made the decision weeks ago not to run called the tape yet another example of the politics of personal destruction that embody the politics of mcconnell. mcconnell is charging a liberal group in kentucky is ripping a page from the nixon campaign book bugging his campaign office. >> as you know last month my wife's ethnicity was atalked by a left wing group in kentucky. apparently they also bugged my headquarters. quite a nixonian move. this is what you get from the political left in america these days.

>> the mcconnell campaign, nbc news has learned, hired a security firm to sweep the louisville campaign office for any recording devices. they did this two days ago. they found nothing. yesterday they asked the fbi to investigate. it's something the bureau is looking into. in a statement to nbc news mother jones said the following. quote, we were recently provided the tape by a source who wished to remain anonymous. it is our understanding the that the tape was not a product of a watergate bugging operation. the magazine said they were not involved in the making of the tape and if it turns out the recording was made without the knowledge of anyone in the room the person who made the recording would be charged with a federal crime. again, the fbi has not launched a formal investigation. instead a spokeswoman for the fbi office in louisville tells nbc that they are, quote, following all the logical steps to determine if the recording was made in violation of federal law. consider this. mother jones says they have released everything they have. 11 1/2 minutes of what was a two-hour meeting.

it's the first 11 1/2 minutes. that may be a clue as to how this recording came to be. mcconnell's office believes they have essentially canvassed everybody who was in that meeting and they are 99.9% confident that it was nobody on their team that made the recording or leaked it. all right. with a deal done on guns, is immigration next? as more than 10,000 supporters of immigration reform are expected to rally on capitol hill this afternoon, the gang of eight senators working on a deal say they're on the verge of an announcement. i feel like we've been saying that for two weeks. we're going to get the very latest on the behind the scenes negotiations with one of those gang of eight members, new jersey democratic senator bob menendez. first, a look ahead at today's politics planner. it is busy, folks. from here to chicago, back here in d.c., one very busy day. guns, immigration, budget. pick your topic. there's news on that. we'll be right back.

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the senate is closing in on an immigration deal. the judiciary committee may mark up something as early as the week of may 6th. it all depends on who you ask. a framework for the proposal could come tomorrow, could come sometime next week or maybe it's may. if a deal does get done it would be the first comprehensive immigration bill since 1986. joining me now a member of the gang of eight, the group of bipartisan senators negotiating how to write the bill. new jersey democratic senator bob menendez who's also chairman of the foreign relations committee. a lot we could be talking to you about considering what's going on with north korea.

let's start with immigration. marco rubio's spoerks person said senator rubio has said from the outset that we will not rush this process so it's good that senators and the public will have weeks to study the proposal before the judiciary committee will mark it up. what interested me there is that he said we'll have weeks to mark it up. it seems to me you guys are really close to having a framework to release to the public. are you? >> yes. chuck, we are just finishing up legislative language to encapsulate all the agreements that we've come to. all of the major issues on a pathway to legalization, on border security, on future flow of workers, on ag jobs, on dream act, all of those have largely been agreed to. now, of course, putting legislative language as you know takes time and in that process, when people read the language, some member might say, well, that's not exactly what i meant. so you have to refine it. but we're there. >> what is your concern of what the biggest sticking point could

be? >> well, i think that we have met the challenges of all of the biggest sticking points. being that the afl/cio and the u.s. chamber of commerce have come to an agreement on future flow of workers, which was one of the toughest challenges. one of the reasons the last time in '07 that we debated immigration reform -- >> you really think that was stickier than border -- than this idea of a border security metric, figuring out what that is, before you trigger the start of the pathway to citizenship for those that are here who are undocumented? >> the border security metric is very objective. we have vetted to make sure that it can be achieved. i would personally never sign on to an agreement in which the border security metric would be an absolute impediment towards a pathway to legalization and to citizenship for the 11 million. i believe the border security metrics can be met. help further increase

significantly the border security. and at the same time provide the pathway for the 11 million who are undocumented to come out of the shadows into the light. >> all eight of you sticking together on this including marco rubio? let me ask you this. have you come to an agreement on the number of years that the pathway to citizenship will take? is it eight years? is it ten years? is it 12 years? >> well, that goes through a process as determined by some of the -- not only those metrics that we just talked about, but the time frame that it will take for an individual to go through the whole process of coming forward, going through a criminal background check, learning english, doing all the elements of what will earn you the right towards permanent residency and then u.s. citizenship. so that's going to be defined by that process. but it'll be a fair but tough process. one that i certainly can embrace. one that i think immigration advocates across the country will embrace. and one that will also ensure

that we know who is here to pursue the american dream, that we know that we have a group of individuals who can no longer be an underclass and exploited and oppress wages for all americans. i think this will be good for the country. it'll be good for our security. it'll be good for our economy. and it will keep to our values as a nation of immigrants. >> senator, is there a minimum -- is there a minimum number of years? there's some immigration advocates out there that are nervous that even eight years is too long. five years is too long. is there -- what is that minimum going to be? well, we'll talk about that when we release the bill finally. but i would just simply say that i say to my friends in the immigration advocacy community, look at what the pathway was before in different bills. and the reality is, is that there's a certain period of time that will be invoked no matter what. for example, if we say that -- we've always said that you have to wait at the back of the line, which means all those waiting to

come in through the legal fashion have to be cleared out first. that's going to be determined by how we ratchet up the number of visas for those who have been verified and have been approved. so that's all part and element of what the time frame will be. >> budget. very fast. chained cpi. the president's proposal to change the way cost of living adjustments are made. that has an impact on social security. can you imagine yourself supporting that in any form if it's part of a larger budget deal? >> look, i want to keep an open mind because it depends what that larger budget deal can be. you know, one that ultimately ensures that we continue investments in education, in health, in our research and development, but also reduces our debt. but i am generally opposed to the chained cpi. but i will look at the totality of any deal that's presented to me and make a decision at that time. >> anything the administration's not doing on north korea that they should be? >> well, i think they are doing

everything they can. the tensions on the north korean peninsula are at its highest. a miscalculation could create a real consequence. what we need to do and i believe the administration is doing is pursuing the chinese who obviously have the greatest impact on north korea because they're the provider of overwhelmingly its fuel and food resources. and they can play and should play a big role here. >> i want to ask you about the investigation that's taking place into a donor and a friend of yours, dr. melgin, i wanted to know, have you been interviewed either by the fbi or by the grand jury in this investigation? >> no. and the reality is, look, we welcome any review by any entity. because at the end of the day we know that that review will prove that we have acted appropriately at all times. what we don't know in this process is who was behind the money and the smears that they tried to level. we do know that there were people behind it. we do know that republican

operatives were at play by a whole host of press accounts. we'd love to know who was behind that. >> well, i want to -- the one part of this that i guess i'm -- that some people look at and say, huh, did you do any favors for this donor and this friend that you wouldn't have done for any other constituent when it was helping him with a port security contract or dealing with medicare? can you say for certain you didn't do anything above and beyond what you would have done for any other constituent? >> we have all types of constituents, both in new jersey and from across the country. who bring us issues, and we look at those issues. we make a determination as to whether or not those issues have legitimacy. and then we make a decision to pursue it ourselves if we think that the issue has legitimacy. in this case as in every other case, that's the road that we followed. it's the same road for everyone. as i say, i'm, you know, happy to see our actions reviewed because at the end of the day

they were totally appropriate. >> all right. new jersey democratic senator bob menendez, chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, part of the gang of 8, very busy week in washington, thanks for your time on the show. >> thank you. up next, if it's wednesday, we've got election results for you. plus, a congressman's confessions. anthony weiner speaks out about the scandal that led to his downfall and his hopes for political comeback. first, today's trivia question. president obama's budget was delivered to congress this morning. 65 days late. who was the most recent president to submit his budget to congress early? before the deadline? first person to tweet the correct answer to @chucktodd and @dailyrundown will get a shout out from us. answer and more is coming up on "the daily rundown." [ woman ] i take one prevacid 24 hr for frequent heartburn

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somewhere. today it's in chicago's second congressional district where democrat robin kelly is now the newest member of congress. replacing disgraced former representative jesse jackson jr. the win was widely expected. kelly had 71% of the vote to the republican paul mckinley's 22%. the rest of the votes were split among green party and independent candidates. kelly vowed to become a leader in the fight for gun legislation. she will be sworn into office tomorrow. over to new york, where former congressman anthony weiner, who, of course, was forced to resign after tweeting a lewd picture of himself, announced he's considering a run for new york city mayor. in what was clearly an emotional interview with the "new york times" magazine, weaner said, quote, i do recognize to some degree it's maybe now or never for me in terps of running for something. i'm trying to gauge not only what's right and what feels comfortable right this second but i'm also thinking how will i feel in a year or two years or five years? weiner, who has over $4 million in his campaign account recently

spent 100,000 of that to poll test where he has the ability to stage a political comeback. finally, former democratic congressman mike ross will run for governor of arkansas next year, according to national journals. ross will formally announce he is running next wednesday. ross will be sharing the democratic field with lieutenant governor -- former lieutenant governor bill halter. acha hutchison also is expected to run. the current governor tis term limited. with the north korea poised to launch missiles, ambassador chris hill, a man who knows the region and the players better than anyone else out there is going to be here. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc.

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so south korea is warning that the danger of a missile launch from the north is high and could come any time. and it could be more than one missile launch.

it's the latest in a string of red flags surrounding north korea and its leader kim jong-un. so why are so many experts dismissing this as nothing but empty bluster? today a deep dive into north kor korea's history of saber rattling as a negotiating tactic. it was ten years ago this month the u.s. says the north admitted for the first time to possessing nuclear weapons. then secretary of state colin powell said north korea suggested it would dismantle the program but wanted something considerable in return. president bush called that blackmail. nevertheless, the u.s. remained in contact and after four rounds of talks, seemed to reach a breakthrough. in september 2005 pyongyang agreed to abandon its nuclear program. in exdhang it demanded energy aid, improved relations and a light water nuclear power reactor. disagreements over imp lemation helped scuttle that deal. in july 2006 north korea test fired ballistic missiles, followed it up with an underground nuclear test in october. february 2007 the north again agreed to halt nuclear activity but for a price.

in return u.s. agreed to send 50,000 tons of f fuel, oil and return $25 million in frozen north korean assets. nuclear facilities at yongbyon were shut down. in a year they were complaining they hadn't gotten all the fuel oil promised and threatened to restart. nuclear talks broke down. things got worse in 2009 after the north ejected nuclear inspectors and conducted a second underground test. subsequent hostilities with south korea drew criticism from the u.s. and president obama. reaffirmed the ban on north korean goods and services in 2011. >> as pyongyang continues to ignore its international obligations, it will invite even more pressure and isolation. if the north abandons its quest for nuclear weapons and moves towards denuclearization, it will enjoy greater security and opportunity for its people. >> but two months later, the standoff entered unchartered waters when kim jong-il died and

his son took over. jim jong-un's tenure has marked by the disclosure of new missiles and a third nuclear test. the question no one's been able to answer is whether there's a method to this man's madness. joining me now, former ambassador chris hill. he served as u.s. ambassador to south korea. he took part in the six party talks with the north and was assistant secretary of state for east asian and pacific affairs. perhaps no one in u.s. government, current or former, knows more about this than mr. hill. ambassador, nice to see you. >> good to see you. >> so you have been rather harsh in your assessment of this new leader in north korea. we're at a weird, fascinating point. there's a brand-new leader in south korea. a brand-new leader in north korea. actually, new leadership in china. take all that together. where does that leave us right now? >> well, i mean, clearly the north korean leader, you know, 30 years old. he's kind of a not ready for primetime player.

his father never really brogroo him for the job. the north korean people barely know him. they're obviously trying to showcase him as a, you know, tough leader who's standing down the united states and everyone else for that matter. every year north korea has this kind of hissy fit over our annual exercises. but this year it's gone on a lot longer and a lot stronger because of the need to try to showcase and portray this guy as a great leader. >> because the u.s. has responded to essentially what sometimes felt like hostage taking demands. we'll do this. we'll stop this. if you give us this. because the u.s. has essentially given them stuff in the past, aren't we sort of in this vicious cycle where this is the only way it stops? that basically the united states has to give in to some demand here on, say, fuel aid or economic aid? >> well, what we tried to do was to say, look, if you get rid of your -- get rid of your nuclear

program, we'll do a few things for you. we tried to work out a deal. and put a lot of things on the table, and the north koreans accepted the proposal. everyone else accepted it. and we went forward to try to implement it. the problem is, the north koreans accept something one day and then decide the next day that they don't want to accept it. and that's what's really -- drives you crazy in negotiating with these people. you think you have a deal, and then the next day you don't have a deal. and they circle back and reopen issues that have already been closed. i mean, it makes these balkan warlords that i used to deal with seem like boy scouts in comparison sf comparison. >> it seems like china's finally frustrated. they've shown some of this frustration publicly rather than just privately. how do they -- how do they help us here? you know, do they have to do more than just rhetorically criticize the north? >> well, if you go down to these chinese towns along north korea, along the border there, you'll

see that there is trade that goes on with north korea. we would like to see that shut off. we don't believe the north korean economy could last two weeks without china in support. so to some extent, things that go on in china are not necessarily controlled by beijing. i mean, this is a huge country, china. so it's not easy for them to do all the things we'd like them to do. so rather than just admit it's not easy, they try to make virtue of it by saying it's not the right policy. but i think what we're seeing and what you've observed is in recent weeks, the chinese are indicating they've had enough of this. they have other priorities such as integration in the world trading system. and that north korea's really not part of their future, it's part of their past. so the issue is to try to get the chinese further along with this, try to make this a higher priority for the chinese to try to shut down some of this stuff. and i hope that when secretary kerry gets to beijing, they'll have a serious conversation of what needs to be done to make the north koreans really feel

it. >> you know, there is, i think, a fear among some folks that i've talked to that what if this guy is an irrational actor? normally you make your -- you make your bets on how things go overseas based on some form of rational thought coming from the people you're dealing with on the other side. what if this kid is irrational? >> well, he's probably rational from a point of view of trying to hold on to power. you know, he's surrounded by it shall by -- he's got a regent, for example, a guy who kind of helps steer him. it's clear that the north korean military is very much in charge. but the problem is, how to put it, these people are not very interactive. they have no idea how we look at things. i mean, we try to explain it to them. they don't quite get it. so when we make, for example, a gesture of goodwill, they see it as a gesture of weakness. so you have to be very careful on the gesture business. but i think at the end of the day, the real concern is since they don't understand us, they don't understand the rest of the world because frankly they

haven't cared about the rest of the world, they could miscalculate. and that would look like irrational behavior. but they simply don't understand that if they do something, they may well get a response they weren't expecting. >> and very quickly, and it's sort of hard to say it that way, but very quickly, what's the lesson learned about north korea and nuclear weapons and why it's so important to prevent iran from getting them? >> well, the problem is once a country has them, it's very hard to convince a country to get rid of them. and in the case of iran, they may be on the cusp of it, but they're not there yet. and that's why this is a time for sort of intensive diplomatic effort to dissuade them from having them. because once they have them, it's real tough to get rid of them. >> all right. former ambassador chris hill, with experience. middle east and asia. all over the map. always good to have you on the show. thanks for spending some time with us. >> thanks very much, chuck. >> all right. well, as we've been telling

you, it's a gigantic day on capitol hill. the hump day gaggle is here. it includes a former speaker of the house. that's how big of a day it is on capitol hill. first, the white house soup of the day. chicken noodle. it's allergy season. that actually feels kind of good. we'll be right back. [ female announcer ] from more efficient payments. ♪ to more efficient pick-ups. ♪ wireless is limitless. ♪ from tracking the bus. ♪ to tracking field conditions. ♪ wireless is limitless.

♪ what that's great. it won't take long, will it? no. okay. this, won't take long will it? no, not at all. how many of these can we do on our budget? more than you think. that didn't take very long, did it?

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daily flashback to this day in history. making the day in 1947 when the the brooklyn dodgers announced they'd purchased jackie robinson's contract from the montreal royals. five days later robinson made his debut, breaking the major league color barrier. senators joe manchin and pat toomey will hold a press conference a little over an hour from now. jean cummings is deputy editor with bloomberg news. former illinois republican congressman dennis hasker served

as speaker of the house for eight years. speaker, you don't see this here but we have you at a monitor at our table. there's a max head room type feel here. my apologies for that. speaker, let me start with you. when you are watching the way legislation is being made these days, that it's having to go through the senate before it gets to the house, is this just the reality of the moment and that's the only way deals are going to get done? so if you get agreement in the senate? see if you get bipartisan agreement, then see if they break the old hastard rule and get it passed in the house? >> we always kind of took the initiative that we thought that policy ought to begin in the house. but we started out with subcommittees and boiled up through the subcommittees into the committees, then on to the floor. they've decided not to do that. it's always kind of easier, you know, so you don't have to do the legislation twice, let the senate go and if they can get something done, then you can move it through the house. but it seems like once it comes out of the senate, it's kind of a done deal. and it really kind of cutting

off the house from actually putting its piece into the policy. >> but, jean, do we really think it will be a gun -- excuse me. freudian slip. done deal. yes, this compromise on background check feems real. there's reports the nra wasn't just informed of the compromise but may have been in the room as it was being made. so that the manchin/toomey compromise may get significant, 70%, 75% support because the nra may say we're not scoring it. >> toomey does provide some cover not just in the senate, he provides it in the house. the house members need it. the nra for a long time had been in support of broader background checks. so it is not inconceivable that there is some element of this that they can get behind. >> speaker, let me get you to jump in here a minute. how important would it be to rounding up votes in the house if the nra doesn't score this vote? doesn't score the background check compromise? >> if the nra doesn't score it, it'll be much easier to get the votes. the thing is, this whole issue

of gun control is -- it's a gut issue. in a house district, if you're in a district where they've got guns in the back of your pickup, you're probably going to vote one way. if you're a suburban district or urban district you vote another way. if the nra gives you cover, it gives you the ability to change or at least loosen up your position. >> you know, maria, this all comes at a backdrop when we have the big immigration compromise. we know that it's going to get rolled out. senator menendez made it seem like maybe within days. you know, can washington handle both? these are tough compromises. they're going to have to find house republicans that are supportive of this and you're going to find the house republican leadership saying we're more likely to break the old hastert rule for immigration than we are for guns. >> i think what we're seeing for the very first time is a full court press on the american public actually moving congress and saying, look, we want gun -- we want modifications on the current gun laws. and we want to make sure that we

pass comprehensive immigration reform. for the first time in a long time, i used to work in congress. in fact, during the second clinton administration. this is the very first time i actually see republicans coming together on the grassroots side actually supporting not only immigration, but also some sort of gun reform legislation. >> seemed to be a lot more on the immigration side than on the gun side. >> obviously. >> the immigration is survival. they have to do that. and so they will do that. the gun issue is not survival, however, to tell 90% of the american public, never mind, is a really risky thing to do. and you could create a movement by doing such a thing. >> you know, speaker hastert, you said something interesting just a minute ago to describe guns. you said it's a gut vote. does that mean you can't have a rational debate? i don't mean that -- i know rational may seem like a harsh word. do you know what i mean by that? it's not an intellectual argument when it comes to background checks? >> look, i think background checks are one thing. you know, our state has a background check. you have to have a background check.

a lot of states you just go at a gun show and buy a gun and take it home. i think there's a reasonable way to do it. i think if it's done on a timely nature, you know, if you have a little credit card, you can put it in a slot, and it can tell you whether you got credit or not. you should you can put it in a slot and it will tell you if you got credit or not. it should be able to be down in a reasonable way. but people are afraid that those guns get put on a shelf for months or a long time and they want to buy that and take access and these are the collectors and people who think this is part of their culture, but it should be done in a rational, quick way. >> maria, it does strike me with immigration, the reason why it has a better chance, because we have taken the emotion out of the debate. right now with guns, highly emotional. immigration, we're having intellectual rational arguments. >> the fact that you have a --

but we also haven't seen anything on paper and the moment we see something on paper is when people are going to get that gut reaction. >> and there are going to be days when it's going to say -- who was the most recent president to submit his budget to congress early? the answer is george h.w. bush. congratulations to stayed's winner, craig williams. we'll be right back. mom always got good nutrition to taste great. she was a picky eater. well now i'm her dietitian and last year, she wasn't eating so well. so i recommended boost complete nutritional drink to help her get the nutrition she was missing. and now she drinks it every day. well, it tastes great! [ male announcer ] boost has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones,

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all right, tomorrow tiger woods tees off as the number one golfer in the world.

and anthony weiner may be running for new york city mayor. and second act, speaker hastert. with tiger woods, all of a sudden people have forgotten the scandal there, and anthony weiner, everything's in the past. does winning kind of soothe all wounds? >> i think an area of politics, once you're wounded, it's really tough to come back. we'll see what sanford does, but sanford has to come back and persuade 50% of the voters who are women to vote for him. >> is it just eventually we do sort of forgive and forget. >> i don't think we forget.

>> i don't think tiger woods, it's going to be all about endorsement endorsement endorsements. >> i think we should address immigration and the gun thing, but i think the real thing that drives our economy for the next 30 years is our energy policy and we really need to get serious on that. >> and we're not talking about it, very fair point. >> 10,000 immigrants and immigrant rights groups are con greg ga congregating in washington. >> we'll see you tomorrow, the brand-new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll will be out in the morning. chris jansing is coming up.

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