funeral. soldiers say they found 12 pounds of marijuana taped under her seat on a bus. >> what do you say to the people that did this to you? >> to be good. to repent, i don't know. to work honest, you know, to find a job, a decent job, where they can make a living not putting innocent people through these nightmare, like they did to me. >> so in an early morning news conference, just after her release, maldonado said this was what was keeping her going. >> my faith and my family kept me going. reading the scriptures, i found a book of mormon and i was reading with some of the inmates. >> home, sweet, home, finally. what a journey it's been for the married mom of seven.

nbc's miguel almaguer has more on maldonado's road to freedom. >> reporter: after nine long nights in a mexican jail, yanira maldonado has her freedom, reunited with her husband, he says her nightmare is over. >> i'm very grateful that i'm free. >> reporter: as yanira and her husband gary were returning from a funeral last week, their bus was pulled over at a military checkpoint. more than 12 pounds of pot were discovered under two seats, including the one where yanira was sitting. >> someone smuggled those in there and i sat in the wrong seat. >> reporter: on thursday, maldonado's attorney prevented a key piece of evidence to the judge deciding her fate. surveillance video taken at the moment yanira and gary stepped on to the bus. >> it showed exactly what i hoped it would show, what we brought on to the bus. >> the images show yanira with a purse, two bottles of water, and what appears to be two blankets. just before stepping on to the

vehicle, yanira hands the blankets to gary, who folds them tightly, following his wife on to the bus. >> it's clear, indisputable evidence that they didn't have anything to do with that. >> reporter: within hours of seeing that video in court, the judge ordered maldonado released. >> you guys did an amazing job out there for me, putting the word out that i was in there, that i was innocent and that was, that was the key, i would say. >> reporter: this morning, an american citizen, freed from a mexican jail -- >> muchos gracias. >> reporter: -- exonerated from a crime she never committed. >> i am free, i am free. i'm innocent. >> this morning, authorities are questioning a person of interest, a texas man in connection with the threatening ricin-laced letters that have sent to michael bloomberg and mark lace, who runs bloomberg's nonprofit gun organization in

washington, d.c.. >> the letter, in essence, complains about gun control, and says in essence, anyone who comes for my guns will be shot in the face. >> the man in question has not been identified, but east an army vet. authorities say he's not considered a suspect at this time. but joining me now, former fbi special agent, don clark. don, it's great to have you here. we're hearing that this man's wife was the one that allegedly called authority. she said she called after finding strange materials in her refrigerate and things on the computer about ricin. the letters were sent from their home in new boston, texas. investigators say that both lat letters, including a similar one that was sent to the president, were postmarked in shreveport, louisiana. explain to all of us the kind of interrogation, the kind of questioning that will be happening at this point. >> first of all, thomas, we've got to give this wife a lot of credit for looking and recognizing that something was

not right here, that this was not the normal activities that they were doing. that really got them going and started. and once the fbi gets this type of information, this is the type of information that, you know, we really can't just sit on for a long time and try to investigate. we've got to go really quickly to try to find out, what's the origin of this drug that's getting out, who's the people that's involved in it, and trying to make sure that we stop it before it gets all over our society. >> as we talk about that, don, because we also learned thursday of yet another ricin-laced that was mailed to the president from spokane, washington. an arrest was made on may 22nd. and we have a similar incident that the fbi made one arrest right away only to release that man and charge another one. how much pressure is there to make an arrest? and as we look at where these are geographically popping up, don, around the country, is this a legitimate question about a potential link or are these just copy cats seeing how much media, press attention that these are

getting, and so they decide to get involved? >> well, it could be both. it could be just attention that somebody is being copy catting and coming on and trying to do the same thing. but when it happens, it really doesn't matter to the fbi and the law enforcement community, because they're responsibility is to protect the citizens of the united states and its illegal visitors and so forth. and so, therefore, they have to really go after these things immediately, because they cannot afford to sit back and let them carry on a bit further. >> we'll wait to see what news comes out of the investigation that has led the fbi to texas. former fbi agent don clark. don, great to see you. thank you, sir. joining me right now is california democratic congressman, adam schiff, who sits on the house intelligence community. we talk about mayor michael bloomberg, has been a public face of gun control, founded mayors against illegal guns, sunk millions of his own private fortune into this fight. and from the sounds of his weekly radio show this morning,

he's going about his business as usual. he is saying he feels perfectly safe, not worried about any danger. more concerned about getting hit from lightning than anything else. the mayor is obviously not backing off. but in your professional estimation, do you think that there's any chance that this threat reignited forward motion in the gun debate among lawmakers? >> i think it certainly could. and i think those who think they can intimidate mayor bloomberg don't know him very well. he's putting his own resources and organization as a counterweight to some of the work the nra does on the other side. and that's not something we've had before. so it really, it can be a game changer in this important debate. certainly, legislators on the hill are not going to be deterred by these ricin letters. and it does look like we're having an increased dose of crazy around the country with now this third ricin-based attack just in the last few months. but, if anything, it will just steel our will to push on with common sense gun safety

measures. none of us are going to be deterred by this. >> isn't it common sense that a guy that was going to send a ricin letter, wouldn't we want to send him through a basic background check anyway? just saying. >> well, i would think so. i would think so. and we would want him to have that background check, whether he was buying the gun from a licensed dealer or out of the back of a truck. we would want those checks to be universal to weed out people like that. >> i want to switch gears now and talk about the journalists who did not boycott the media sessions with attorney general eric holder. and they're now talking about that session in kind of a broad sense, saying that holder expressed a willingness to revise the guidelines for the kind of investigations that would involve journalists. stopped short of saying any concrete offers. do you think this peace offering o of a balanced approach is going to go far enough to turn down the heat on holder? it's pretty hot in and around d.c. on him. >> well, i think it was very smart of the attorney general to meet with the president, to express an openness to changing

the justice department policies, and i think those policies should be changed. i think there should be a very strong presumption that whenever you subpoena the media, it should be done with notice to the media so they can go to court and make it a motion to caution. and then you have a third party, the judge, who can evaluate both the necessity of the subpoena, as well as the scope of the subpoena, both of which are at issue in the ap investigation. so i think the justice department rules will be tightened. i think they should be tightened. i think this was a smart first step by the attorney general to begin that dialogue as a part of the change in policy. >> i want to point out, nbc news did not attend the meeting, because it would not be of public record. but here is some sound from news executive who is did. take a listen. >> they also expressed a commitment to making changes in the guidelines for issuing subpoenas and possible statutory changes in the privacy act. >> i mean, it's the beginning of a conversation. we're going to have other conversations. i'm not sure that anybody's satisfied until we know what happens, but it was a starting point. >> so you said this was a good starting point for beginning this dialogue. do you have confidence in the

way that eric holder has handled this investigation? do you have confidence in him as attorney general, moving forward, or duke tho you think he's become a liability for the white house? >> i have a lot of confidence in the attorney general. i think he's done really an extraordinary job running the department and made a real priority, the voter suppression efforts during the last elections, civil liberty issues, privacy issues. and i think he's been an extraordinary attorney general. i think that many in the congress, particularly if the government reform committee have gone after him relentlessly and unfairly. in terms of the ap investigation, i think that what he's doing right now and outreaching to the press, and re-examining the justice department guidelines, i think in changing those guidelines, is exactly what we would want him to do. so i have every confidence in him and far more confidence in the attorney general than i do nose who have been attacking him. >> congressman adam schiff, thank you for your time.

i praesappreciate it. >> you bet. >> the mayor of new york city is running ads against me because i oppose president obama's gun control legislation. >> still ahead this hour, the first democratic and any senate race this cycle, the first ad we're see welcome from a democratic senator defending his vote against gun control. also on that, president obama preps to go toe to toe with congress over student loans and student debt. and this is one fight the white house want. jared bernstein will join me next. and today's big question for you is about the student loan battle. is washington doing more for wall street than main street? way in on facebook or on twitter. find me @thomasaroberts. we also produce natural gas. that's how we make our living and that's how we can pass the land and water back to future generations. people should make up their own mind what's best for them. all i can say is it has worked well for us.

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. higher education cannot be a luxury for a privileged few, it

is an economic necessity that every family should be able to afford, every young person with dreams and ambitions should be able to access, and now's not the time for us to turn back on young people. >> president obama urging congress to act now, before student loan rates double in just a matter of weeks. and right now the interest rate on government-backed loans is 3.4%. but that expires july 1st, when the rates skyrocket to 6.8%. and if lawmakers can't come to an agreement, well, we know what that's going to mean. more cash out of the pockets of those trying to find work out there. nbc white house correspondent kristen welker joins me now. kristen, neither side wants the rates to double. and it seems as if the right, john boehner, anyway, has already responded to the president's talk this morning. >> well, that's right. there was a swift response from house speaker john boehner, he basically said that the president is playing politics with this issue. we also got a swift response from mitch mcconnell, senate republican leader, who says, quote, no one should be fooled by today's campaign-style event

at the white house. so the reaction was swift from republicans. as you point out, there is broad agreement they don't want student loan rates to increase. in fact, the house has passed a bill that would keep student loan rates at their current 3.4%. the house bill, the president's plan, are similar in a lot of ways. in fact, they tie the interest rates to the yield on ten-year treasury bills. where they're different is that the president's plan would lock loan rates in place. the house bill doesn't necessarily do that. so this is a showdown that we are headed for in about a month, but, look, president obama likes this issue. right now, he wants to divert attention, certainly, away from the irs and doj controversies. he wants to talk about this. it is a campaign that he is launching with events like the one that we just saw, and also online with this video that was posted on whitehouse.gov. take a look. >> some of you may remember last year, when president obama slow jammed the news. >> now is not the time to make

school more expensive for our young people. >> oh, yeah. >> once again, on july 1st, the interstate on subsidized student loans is expected to double. if you're one of the 7 million students who borrow money through the subsidized loan program, sometimes called the stafford loan program, this affects you. >> reporter: and thomas, education officials say it's great that washington is focused on this issue of student loan rates, but they say the real issue is the rising cost of tuition and they want lrps to focus more of their attention on that as well. thomas? >> nbc's kristen welker reporting from the white house. kristen, thanks so much. appreciate it. >> reporter: thanks. >> i would like to bring in jared bernstein now, the former chief economist for vice president biden and an msnbc contributor. jared, you've heard all of this. and is kristen is reporting there, this house plan allows the student loan rates to go up and down with the market and resets every year. the president wants to lock them in. so is the ownnus now on the sene

to figure this out? what can they do to figure this out and make it to the president's desk with approval? >> well, the bill that passed the house, he already just said that he would veto it. so we'll have to get into some of this back and forth that's not uncommon these days. but very important for the senate, and specifically republicasenate republicans, to join in on a plan. and i would agree that fixing the interstate that student loans face is actually quite important. i don't see how it really helps for that loan to be variable, to go year up year, or even down year after year. i think what students really need is predictability there. so i like very much the idea of fixing or locking in a rate. i do want to say one thing. kristen mentioned that the president's idea allows students to lock in low rates. well, they're low today. they won't necessarily be low tomorrow. so there's an issue there as well. we might want to think about a cap, which, by the way, the house has a cap and it's a very

high one. the president does not have a cap. >> when you talk about the cap, elizabeth warren, her house colleague, may have approved the banks on the low fairness act, which would let students raise money at 0.75%. that's the same rate that banks can borrow now. when you talk about a cap, why not lack at something like that, where students would just in perpetuity have that figure to worry about. we see the rising cost of college going up, the loan debt wouldn't. >> well, look, the loan debt might not go up in terms of the interest rate, but the amount of debt and the years it would take you to pay off that debt would go up with tuition and that's one reason why kristen's absolutely right. we have to pay attention to that side of the issue as well. senator warren's bill only locks in that low rate for one year. that is an exceptionally low rate. i think the ideas that are being batted about. and by the way, senator warren has signed on, i believe, to a bill much like the president's, that locks in the ten-year treasury rate. so while the bank lending rate of less than 1% might be a good

way to intervene for a short period, i think the idea of tying this to the ten-year treasury makes sense. most people pay off their student loans in about ten years. >> jared, i understand you have some breaking news about the medicare trust fund that's going to be -- there's new figures about when it's going to be exhausted. >> exactly. the medical trustees won't release this until noon, so we're getting -- but they did just release a press release that had some pretty important and i think positive news. the trust fund that supports the medicare hospital insurance program is going to be solvent for two more years than in last year's report. and that has to do with slower-growing health care costs, partly as a function of the affordable care act. that is good news for beneficiaries, that is good news for medicare, and extending the life of the trust fund is very important for medicare's health. >> jared bernstein, former chief economist to vice president joe biden, msnbc contributor. thank you, sir. have you heard about this,

because we do have a winner. the fourth trip to the scripps spelling bee was apparently a lucky one for a 14-year-old boy from queens. arvind won the nationally televised contest last night with the world knaidel. here was his reaction. >> k-n-a-i-d-e-l, knaidel. >> you are the champion. you stood there and you looked like you were in shock. were you? not at all. so you knew this was going to happen. >> he did. he lacked a little shocked. just in case you didn't already know, knaidel is a yiddish term for the germany origin meaning dumpling. still ahead, mother nature adds insult to injury. another tornado touching down on oklahoma. when will that state be out from under the gun? we'll explore. and from tornados to hurricanes. why scientists think the u.s. could face heightened risks this year and could we see another who were? stay with us. what do you think? that's great. it won't take long, will it? nah. okay.

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new amateur footage of a tornado which touched down tulsa, oklahoma, yesterday. look at this. this is one of a handful of small twisters in the already battered state. and arkansas, the tornado causing some minor injuries there as well. officials are warning of several more tornadoes headed for oklahoma and nearby states. as the midwest braces itself for more severe weather today, forecasters are looking ahead at what could be an historic hurricane season. the weather channel's carl parker joins us now with more on that. so we're just ahead of the official season starting tomorrow, carl, correct? >> yeah, that's right. it is starting to tomorrow. and we can tell you that things are looking kind of interesting in the southern gulf. computer models are picking up on something developing within the next few days. certainly we'll keep our eyes on that. i want to tell you about the severe weather that's occurring here across the middle of the country. and there's a damaging wind threat through much of the midwest and then farther to the south and west, right in here in oklahoma and parts of arkansas and missouri, that's where the

tornado threat is going to be greatest. you've got a low-level flow, coming out of the south, at the same time there's a mid-level and upper level flow that's coming out of the west. and that change in wind direction and speed with height creates a rolling motion in the atmosphere. and that rolling motion can then be acquired or ingested by developing thunderstorms. these are super-cell thunderstorms. and they're the ones that produce tornadoes. we think that that's going to be a threat across a good part of the central plains. and then tomorrow, a wind threat moving into the ohio valley. thomas, back to you. >> carl, what are the early predictions? what is being said about hurricane season? what can be thought out for this year? >> well, you know, the seasonal forecasts are not very accurate. i can tell you that much. and they're also not very useful, because you can have seasons like 1992, when we only had seven storms, but one that was devastating, that was hurricane andrew. and you can have seasons like 2010, when we had 19 storms, but none of them made landfall. so regardless of what type of a

season we have, you'll want to be prepared. >> carl parker at the weather channel. thanks so much. appreciate it, carl. still up this hour, the president's pick to lead the fbi. why was he chosen and what is he walking into? and then hitting back against bloomberg, a democratic senator who voted against gun control responds to the ads against him, ads funded by the mayor of the big apple. the agenda panel is coming up next to tackle both those topics. stick around. nference times. but what we'd rather be making are tee times. tee times are the official start of what we love to do. the time for shots we'd rather forget, and the ones we'll talk about forever. in michigan long days, relaxing weather and more than 800 pristine courses make for the perfect tee time. because being able to play all day is pure michigan. your trip begins at michigan.org.

congestion, for it's smog.

but there are a lot of people that do ride the bus. and now that the busses are running on natural gas, they don't throw out as much pollution to the earth. so i feel good. i feel like i'm doing my part to help out the environment. not a yes man. president obama is expected to nominate a man to lead the fbi. who said to put law over politics. a renewed call today for immigration reform, with a massive rally to start within just two hours. and shooting back. a democratic senator defends his decision not to vote in favor of gun control. those are the topics for today's panel of writers, covering progressive issues. joining me now, daffney lyndzer is the managing editor for nbc digital.

maria teresa kumar is an msnbc contributor, and alex mcgillis is the senior editor of "the new republic." gang, great to have you all here. daffney, i want to start with you in talking about what we understand about comey and his potential nomination. we have senator chuck grassley saying if he's nominated, he would have to answer questions about his recent work in the hedge fund industry, the administration's efforts to criminally prosecute wall street in the economic downturn have been abysmal and the agency would have to help to build the case against his colleagues. >> jim comey is a registered republican, he was the deputy attorney general, serving under george bush. he's also one of the few men, maybe one of the only men, who ever walked into the oval office and told the president that he was breaking the law. so you can see that there's definitely going to be some pushback from the republicans. it's interesting that they want to take the financial tact. when comey was the attorney

general, he prosecuted a lot of wall street cases. it's interesting they want to go that way. but i think he'll probably be able to hold his own. >> we need to talk about what he would be walking into the fbi. right now we need to show the boston bombing suspect and ibragim todashev. the victim's dad is saying that his son was executed at the hands of u.s. agents. cbs is reporting that fbi agents fired at him at least six times and the wife of this man is questioning why he was shot in the head. he was unarmed. so, alec, is he walking into a big mess when it comes just how to deal with the boston bombing situation? and that's if, if he was able to get through a confirmation hearing. >> oh, definitely. the questions coming out of orlando are really something. i think we really need to know more about what happened down there. it's just this, an unarmed man, interrogated for a couple of hours, and he ends up dead.

this is looking very, very disconcerting at this point. >> meanwhile, cbs news is reporting the fbi has convened a shooting incident review group to investigate if the shooting is justified. alec, what more do we know about the connection that he has to tsarnaev? >> there's just this -- all we know is that there was this homicide up there in massachusetts and tsarnaev has for a while now, you know, been suspected in that, and then we have had his fellow chechen, who shows up suddenly, out of nowhere, really, shows up dead in this interrogation in florida. >> again, they've started this shooting incident review group. we'll see where they go with this. but, they certainly have a lot of serious questions to answer for it, in trying to have that connective tissue there to tsarnaev. maria teresa, i want to talk to you, because we're hours away from this big immigration rally in chicago, explain to us what the point of the immigration rally in chicago is and where we are in washington, d.c., right

now, on bipartisan immigration reform. it seems as if everybody in washington is distracted from trying to get policy through. >> right. well, take a step back, two days ago the president was in chicago at a fund-raiser, and you had over a hundred people protesting and 12 people, the undocumented immigrants protesting and 12 people arrested, with the premise of president obama, please stop family deportation and family separation, if comprehensive immigration is to pass come august or september, these people would qualify. the rally you'll see in chicago is basically trying to get the detention center that is going to be built, to get out of the community, because, again, what you're finding is that the most vulnerable right now, that the detention systems are targeting are undocumented immigrants. and they're filling our prisons at record speed. now what you're seeing when it comes to immigration reform, because washington had other distractions, they had the ap scandal, they had benghazi, you know, under scrutiny, they

were -- the judiciary committee was actually able to pass comprehensive immigration reform package almost in tact, 13-5, with incredible bipartisan support. and what's hoping now is that you actually sent the piece of legislation to the senate and it passes with anywhere from 70 to 75 members of congress. again, bipartisan support, sending a message to the house republicans that this is overwhelmingly not a democratic issue, but a bipartisan issue. and so, we are hearing a lot of, you know, a lot of enthusiasm, even from former speaker pelosi, saying we might have a bill passed and introduced in the senate -- or in the house, by august. >> it seems as if both sides want their fingerprints on this so they can take it back to their constituents and the american people and say they were actively involved in trying to bring forward bold and new policy reform when it comes to immigration reform. we have these numbers out, maria teresa, immigrants generated a surplus of 115 billion from '02 to '09. in a study out on wednesday, they've contributed this much, a

surplus, not medicare program, than they drew out. it's amazing when we think about the hard figures, cash figures, and the fact that we still have to debate where both sides want to get in on this issue to provide people with a positive future. >> and the importance of this harvard study, showing you had over $100 million of surplus that immigrants contributed talks to two things. you have over 10,000 baby boomers retiring every single day. who's going to sustain them? the average immigrant in this country is 27 years old. what does that mean, that they are at their peak at productivity, and for the most part, you find immigrants who are incredibly entrepreneurial. they are part of the american dna. and so the this study is not only welcome, but it also blends a fresh face, saying immigrants aren't takers, but they're really contributors and they're contributors in the time in america that our baby boomers are retiring at a record clip. and how are we going to otherwise make sure that we're sustainable, but also moving forward and continuing in a booming economy. >> we're also going to be

talking about whether or not in washington, after we see immigration and the debate move forward, if gun reform is going to pick back up. however, there are already people that are running ads, trying to prove who voted against gun reform, but there's one senator who's pushing back against mayor bloomberg's group. i want to show his ad. >> the mayor of new york city is running ads against me, because i oppose president obama's gun control legislation. nothing in the obama plan would have prevented tragedies like newtown. i'm mark pryor and i approve this message, because no one from new york or washington tells me what to do. i listen to arkansas. >> he listens to arkansas. alec, off great piece with "the new republic," talking about, this is how the nra ends a bigger, richer, meaner gun control movement has arrived. is this where we are when it comes to gun reform in the country, that there's going to be a lot of infighting and a lot of distraction, but no real forward motion. >> well, i think there is forward motion right now. they're still shooting to bring this bill back, hopefully in

july or august, after immigration. they're quietly talking to the senators who voted against the background check bill, to see if they can bring them over. but you've got this very interesting dynamic going on now with this ad war. the bloomberg group is running some very tough ads against mark pryor, against jeff flake, against kelly ayo. and there's some debate among the gun control proponents about if this is wise. and you see pryor come back with an ad like this, where he certainly seems like he needs to push back. whether that means he cannot be brought over to the bill remains to be seen. it might be possible that ads like this in way gives him cover to come over. but i find that ad significanting, the way he mentions his opposition to the bill, he doesn't mention what was in the bill, and he also says that the bill wouldn't have prevented newtown. well, i don't think that mark pryor was in favor of banning assault weapons or banning large magazine clips, which might have

prevented newtown. >> well, without the clair of what's going on from the media, looking at policy or stalled policy in washington, d.c., do you think if immigration reform were to come to pass, and both sides looked at each other and they were like, hey, we can actually work together, maybe then gun reform would be something that could take a more common sense, debatable approach, where we don't have to be covering these stories of ricin letters being sent to our elected leaders. but there can be common sense reform attached to where we stand in this country and our gun culture. >> yeah, i think so. and i think the interesting thing about the pryor ad, too, is that, you know, he could have done exactly what kelly ayotte did. he could have gone to these town halls and been attacked and here he had this opportunity. nobody's asking him many questions, he can go out and do this ad on his own. and i think for people who are looking at gun control, this is a really, really big issue. and i think for somebody like jim comey coming in to take over the fbi, getting guns off the

street in richmond was a big thing that he was involved in. and i think guns is going to be a big thing going forward. >> there we've come full forward. thank you, appreciate all of your time. if you didn't get enough from our agenda panel, you can find more from the panel on our website, tv.msnbc.com. follow the link to my name. all right, if you watch one thing today, it should be this. annoyed mogul, talk show host, and one of the world's most influential women, oprah winfrey, speaking candidly to graduates of harvard university about her personal struggles and how they can be true to themselves. >> oh, my goodness! i'm at harvard! it doesn't matter how far you might rise. at some point, you are bound to stumble, because if you're constantly doing what we do, raising the bar, if you're constantly pushing yourself higher, higher, the law of averages, not to mention the myth of icarus, predicts that

you will, at some point fall. and when you do, i want you to know this. remember this. there is no such thing as failure. failure is just life trying to move us in another direction. now, when you're down there in the hole, it looks like failure. >> all right. now, she also urged students to get off facebook, go out and have conversations with people face to face. great advice. so still ahead on the hour coming up, hype over hillary, why her presidential potential might not be the slam dunk that everybody has predicted. erica. there was this and this. she got a parking ticket... ♪ and she forgot to pay her credit card bill on time. good thing she's got the citi simplicity card. it doesn't charge late fees or a penalty rate. ever. as in never ever. now about that parking ticket. [ grunting ] [ male announcer ] the citi simplicity card is the only card that never has late fees, a penalty rate,

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poll, and jeb bush by a similar eight percentage point spread, her potential republican rivals are flaring the gap. joining me now is nate combs. your new article is calling into question all of the hillary 2016 hype, saying that hillary is not the pre-ordained eisenhower-like candidate that she's been made out to be. and according to this quinnipiac poll, clinton's favorability is down substantially from her all-time high score back in february. but when it comes to her own party, her favorability is sky high and well above her nearest rival, which would be joe biden. how do you not see this if she were to declare a more foregone conclusion for the democratic nomination? >> i think she would have an essentially good chance of winning the democratic nomination. her poll numbers are in the 60s in a hypothetical primary matchup with joe biden. 60% is basically unheard of for a non-vice presidential candidate. in a general election, though, i don't think that she's necessarily an eisenhower-like candidate. you get that impression from some of these polls, which show her up in texas or leading rand

paul in kentucky or whatever else, but it's important to remember that hillary's at the peak of her popularity right now. she hasn't been attacked by republicans very much over the last four years. and once the republicans re-train their attacks on hillary, her numbers are going to come back down to earth, which i think maybe this quinnipiac poll suggests. once that happens, hillary tease going to end up in a relatively competitive race, i think, given how employpolarizing the econom. >> if you talk about what they could possibly retrain a target on hillary for, in your article, and we look at the ups and downs for clinton's fairvegt, and they're not new, but the impact of benghazi and what that investigation had on her now and what it could mean for the future. >> i am skeptical of the argument that benghazi has taken a huge hit on hillary's credibility. this has been an issue that has gone on for a while. i think it's unlikely that this new news, that hasn't focused much on hillary personally would have taken ten points off her

favorability rating. in the old quinnipiac poll, they asked, what do you think of hillary clinton? do you like her or not? in the new one, they ask, would you vote for her against jeb bush or rand paul? and then they said, do you like her? i wonder if that string of questions ends up putting in particular, republican partisans and republican leaners, romney voters in the context of thinking about a presidential election, rather than the last four years. and once you change that, suddenly you have all these republicans who go from like, yeah, i like hillary, to, no, i don't like her so much. >> our first read team is pointing out that clinton remains formidable, because she's running ahead of both bush and paul by 21 points. she trails among men in the single digits. and if she runs and if that gender gap really does persist, she would be really difficult to beat. so can she ride that through 2016? >> if hillary has a 20-point lead among women in 2016, in october of 2016, she's not going to lose. that's almost impossible for republicans to overcome. but when you look at those polls and see hillary at 48% or 49%,

against basically unknown candidates in the case, or an unknown candidate in the case of rand paul or jeb bush, a candidate who, let's face it, is getting weighed down by his family name and hasn't had the opportunity to rebuild his brand in an independent manner. you also have hillary clinton at the peak of her popularity after four years of being insulated from domestic criticism. so you wonder if hillary's at 48 or 49% now, whether once the campaign gets underway, whether her numbers don't fall back a little bit, or at least the margin doesn't narrow. i'm suggesting maybe she's not on pace to win 450 electoral votes or win kentucky and texas. >> the new republican's nate cohn. great to have you on today. thank you, sir. >> thank you. still ahead this hour, one city's startling look at the so-called school to prison pipeline. it includes real evidence that minority students are impacted more and so are special needs kids. what this report found, plus, is there a solution, next. and today's producer pick comes to us from our segment

producer, tracy mitchell, who might be prancercising in the control room. i am, under my desk. it's the latest exercise phenom. the creator, this woman, youtube sensation, what happened to be on the "today" show. >> move your arms back, because you're going to lift off the ground, and you're going to go forward, lift off the ground, al! >> i'm surprised i never came up with this myself. >> we'll put all the prancercise tips you'll ever need on my facebook page, but for now, i'm going to break. we'll be right back. they're starting small businesses, 21% of new start-ups are launched by folks 55 to 64. and they're turning to second careers, like patient advocacy

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higher learning or a job is

a major step for most students. a study shows an increasing number of children are on the road to prison instead. in a year, the study found that new york city students racked up 75,000 suspensions, 60,000 summons and arrests. the breakdown of the kids receiving the punishments, black students are 14 times more likely to be punished. hispanic students, five times more likely and special needs students, four times more likely. joining me in studio is judge judith kay, chair of the new york state personal nent judicial commission on justice for students, which co-sponsored the study called keeping kids in school and out of court. >> here is the finalized record that you put together. as we talk about arrests being more severe punishment for kids, let's explain the slippery slope that happens for kids that might have a behavioral situation in school. they're suspended and then what? >> we can pause for a moment at the suspension, because as you

pointed out, there were 70,000 school year 2012, the last school year that was reported. and i want to note it's the first time we're getting data for a long time. we didn't have data. and the numbers really tell the story. so the suspension is an out of school suspension. it can be five days, it can be up to a year that's a superextendant suspension. that's kind of a first step and we know the statistics on where kids are headed when they've had more than a few suspensions. and then there's the summons, which are the equivalent to a ticket and then the arrest, which we put at the high end. you get involved with a juvenile delinquency and criminal court system. and the numbers tell a story. that where these kids are headed. >> your report shows that some of these students, they get into trouble for minor infractions are ones that wouldn't have landed them in much trouble in the past. how do you categorize what we're seeing today? >> well, what i categorize it

overwhelmingly as, because we've got the numbers, is adolescent misbehavior. i mean in every category, we've got a sliver of kids who really need to be treated with the most egregious harshly. but overwhelmingly, overwhelmingly in every category, what we're dealing with are things like horseplay and swearing and resisting arrest or resisting a governmental authority. we're dealing with things that might in other places and for other kids be viewed as adolescent misbehavior. >> are there civil rights issues at stake? the report putting together the findings that you have and seeing the greater contrast of kids from minority back grounds being in trouble, what is the solution? what can be implemented to try to turn this around? and help? >> well i think you've put the question exactly right. because yes at one extreme you can call it a civil rights issue. and in fact, arne duncan, the

secretary of education has called it the civil rights issue of our time. but we're not there. there is so much that can be done. and in fact so much is being done in the city of new york i call it the sunshine. and throughout the nation, so much attention is now focused on this really tremendously serious issue. but we need to act, we need to take a pause before the suspension. before the arrest. before writing the ticket. because the consequences are huge. and we need to be bringing together every force we have, to address the student needs in ways other than kicking them out of school and down the road toward prison. >> it really is an eye-opening study. thank you for taking the leadership to put this together and then continue to talk about it. judge judith kay, great to have you here. thank you so much. that's going to wrap things up for me today. thank you for your time. i'll see you back here monday at 11:00 a.m. "now" with alex wagner comes your way next.

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who's bringing home the bacon? here's a hint -- not dad. it's friday, may 31st and this is "now." it is a brave new world. in new study by the pew research center, this week, it finds that among four in ten american households, mothers are the primary breadwinner or the only one. not only is it the highest share ever recorded, it is four times the rate 50 years ago. but the up-ending of the nuclear family and its norms has not been met without consternation. according to the study. half of meshes say that children are the better off with the mother at home or a mother who doesn't have a job. the question over what constitutes the new normal in gender relations cuts to the core of many parties social

divides. to some outspoken conservatives, this data spells the downfall of american society. >> something going terribly wrong in american society. >> you look at biology. the natural world, the roles of a male and female in society. the male typically is the dominant role, the female, it's not anti-thesis, not competing, it's a complementary role. we as a people in the smart society have lost the ability to have complementary relationships in nuclear families and it's tearing us apart. >> it could undermine our social order. >> the chairman of the slate group, jacob wiseberg, host of her show on msnbc, melissa harris-perry, msnbc contributor, maria theresa kumar and senior nbc national correspondent, josh green. there's a lot to be said about this. melissa, let's start out with eric ericsson's contention and he began that litany of complaints by saying i'm so used to liberals telling