anything that gives me some breathing room makes a difference. membership helps make the most of your cashflow. i'm nelson gutierrez of strictly bicycles and my money works as hard as i do. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. the dilemma for democrats in the senate. how big immigration reform is big enough? president obama re-entered the fight for immigration reform on tuesday in his most forceful message in months on what may be the biggest legislative priority of his second term. >> my administration's done what we can on our own. and we've got members of administration here who have done outstanding work over the past few years to try to close up some of the gaps that exist

in the system, but the system's still broken. and to truly deal with this issue, congress needs to act. and that moment is now. >> hours after that the senate voted 82-15 to begin debate on the immigration reform bill. but those 82 yes votes came with a giant asterisk. take mitch mcconnell, for example. >> at the risk of stating the obvious, the bill has serious flaws. i hope to debate it and for the opportunity to amend it, but in the days ahead, there will need to be major changes to this bill if it's going to become law. >> on wednesday texas republican john cornyn offered a controversial bill. his gop colleague john mccain who helped draft the bipartisan bill called it a poison pill. division among republicans is

leading to some division among democrats about how far to go to amend the bill to attract even more votes from the gop. democrat chuck schumer has repeatedly said he hopes to get 70 votes in the senate for passage in the house but that would require a significant number of republican votes and, therefore, significant changes to the legislation. >> i've heard some who say we should not change -- consider any further changes to the bill. dare the other side to volt against it. i reject that approach. >> schumer's approach contrasts sharply by the strategy preferred by many leading democrats who think clearing the 60-vote threshold to defeat a filibuster is the best way forward. on tuesday illinois senator dick durbin told politico i want to get as many volts as we can but not at the expense of the basic agreement. when some of my friends announce 70 votes they create an incentive for republicans to dream up things they neeither

needed in this bill or outside of it. >> we need to improve the border security part of the bill, so i think you'll see something, god willing, early next week so people can start to look at it and a bunch of senators have been working on it. a lot of republicans that want to be supportive of something but need to be able to go back home and tell people they have taken serious steps to ensure this never happens again. like i said, it's going to have to happen. it's going to have to be in there or this isn't going to pass. >> right now i'm joined by michelle bernard, author of "moving america toward justice lawyers' committee of civil rights" which comes out on wednesday. and president of bernard center for women. rick perlstein contributor to "nation" magazine, and george and roberto lovato, co-founder of presente.org, latino

political organization. thanks for joining us. i guess we'll start with this basic dilemma that democrats are facing that spilled into public view this week in the senate where, you know, it's 60 votes -- you need 60 votes to beat a filibuster and to get this bill out of the senate but the lodger chuck schumer is talking about, well f 60 votes get it out of the senate but if you want any chance in the house these days you need 70-plus so overwhelming majority so isolates house republicans, they feel pressured to bring the bill to vote in the house, even if most won't vote for it. george, you're down there, what's you're read on the mood in the senate? how do you rank and file fall on that question? >> the rank and file of not only the senate but in the house are skeptical of this approach by chuck schumer. the house gop is going to be isolated no matter what. there are huge pressures on it from business owners, from the consultant class, to get something done. whether something comes out of

the senate with 64 votes, 67, 70, that's sort of a talking point that, sure, will influence boehner a bit but the point is you probably have to pass it with majority of democratic support. so you don't want to send down a bill that's unacceptable to big chunks of the democrat caucus in the house. okay, you got 70 votes but now you lost a third of the democrats in the house and you can't get it passed. i think not only a lot of the people i talk to but reformers are interested in getting a good bill with 62 votes and the pressure will still be on john boehner at that point. >> let's say they did it with 60, the bare minimum. we're talking about six republicans flipping over and voting for it. i wonder the reaction, michelle, in the republican world if something like that happens, do they feel the kind of pressure george is talking about or does that create an opportunity for conservative republicans to say, hey, this is like six rhinos, seven who jammed the amnesty bill down our throats, does it

make it easier to frame it that way? >> the most fundamental thing we send people to washington to do is vote. for the mass majority of public they sit back and say, why is it difficult to vote under any circumstances whatsoever? i think what we'll see here, at least what we've seen in the house in particular, is that there's not much that makes anyone feel they need to move a bill forward. everyone wants immigration reform to pass but everyone wanted gun control to pass, too. they'll do whatever they want to, whether there's 60 votes coming out of the senate or 70. >> you say everybody wants immigration reform to pass. there is definitely a divide in the republican party. there are republicans sort of -- i guess republican leaders, strategic thinkers say we have to do this for the future. and my sense there are a lot of republicans looking at this and saying, yeah, i get for the good of the party we need to do this, but i'm also scared of voting the wrong way in terms of the republican universe and getting a primary challenge.

>> i'm riveted by profoundly this shows the democracy deficit in our country at as whole. it used to be we needed a majority and 60 vote has been institutionalized, 70, 80, 90, unanimity. this comes down, to get to the structure of it, the republican constituency in the house of republicans is gerrymandered that each seat is a again teed seat so the only election is a primary election. so primaries come from these motivated base voters and low turnout primary elections. so every republican representative lives in fear for some tea party, extremist challenge and kind of three levels down in the system in the senate we're trying to craft public policy, which they're not really doing. and the most extreme possible way. now they're talking about an amendment that requires 100% operational security. i mean, this kind of purity.

and it's almost like kabuki. we pretend we can solve these great public policies with a structure that's so democratically deficient. >> let's talk about that. you talk about the cornyn amendment, the republican from texas, introduced this week. let's play -- we'll play it and then we'll talk about it in a second. >> the most important difference between my amendment and the gang of eight bill is that my amendment has real border security triggers in place. while the gang of eight bill has no effective trigger that will guarantee implementation of border security standard that reach the gang's own standards of 100% situational awareness, 90% apprehension rate. >> so, there is language, there are goals and benchmarks set in the gang of eight bill, the main bill for border security. the main difference of cornyn is he's tying that to the path of

citizenship. he's basically saying we're going to have 100% visibility or awareness of the border and a 90% apprehension rate documented. if that can't be documented in ten years, that anybody who's on this sort of provisional path, eventually path to citizenship, is cut off. there is no path after ten years. i understand why politically this would be enticing for republicans but, roberto, what's the main objection to that? >> first of all, happy father's day, especially my favorite immigrant, my dad. so i'm speaking as a journalist, not presente.org's official position, but when you look at john cornyn's position and the republican party's position on border enforcement, you're talking about, say, mad men. but when you're talking about the gang of eight you're also talking about something that's not accepted by most latino presente.org, the preeminent

polling firm, asked the question that nobody's asking. what do latinos think? everybody came to the table, republican and democrat, after the 2012, because of the latino vote, right? people were saying, man, we've got to -- and that causes a memo in the republican party national committee and, you know, people are really trying to get right by latinos after being really wrong with us for a long time. so, our polls show that like 81% of latinos reject the approach of the gang of eight. not even cornyn. of putting border enforcement -- if you look at the fbi statistics, like i have, and followed this for a lot of years, the border has been certifiably safe for year after year after year. the top ten -- 10 out of 13 border cities are seeing decreases in violent crime year after year. so, it shows the degree of -- like, of simulation and kind of

matrix-like nsa -- >> but what we're talking -- so what we're talking about, though, is the base bill, you could say the issue of border security is a distraction anyway, and this is sort of a grand compromise, right? if you're going to get any republican votes you have to do something to involve border security. the jump cornyn is making here with an amendment that picked up a lot of support among republicans this week is tying that to the path of citizenship saying there will be no path to citizenship. i'm curious, which you say why when people say it's a poison pill, why? >> our organization, presente.org, latinos don't want what is presented by some which is legalization without citizenship. that's unacceptable like 86%. that's unacceptable because people have been living here for 10, 15, 20 years with paying taxes, doing everything they

can, jumping through all these hoops. people -- this bill actually isn't what latinos wanted. it's not what latinos are asking for. >> i would also add, though, my understanding is some of the opposition to this and the reason people call it a poison pill is you can never -- if truth be told, you can never, ever guarantee 100% border security. if you tie the path to legal citizenship to border security, you're basically undoing the entire bill because there are many people who will never get citizenship because the borders will always be porous and there is no way to ensure -- >> where there's a will there's a way. >> exactly. >> if you have a decade and administration thats, we don't want to do this, we can say -- >> i mean, beyond the politics in washington, the real life at the border, isn't it the occasion roberto, there's been a record number of shootings of mexicans crossing the boreders and mexicans still in mexico? we talk about violence at the border it's gone down in mrass

like el paso but probably gone up in places like juarez at the hand of border security. >> most of the debate has been in relation to latinos but there are immigration issues that are not of latino -- >> in my area it's polish. it shows the racism of the republican race. >> one in five are not hispanic. >> exactly. >> i want to get -- we'll take a quick break and pick up on this point of cornyn because there's another possible compromise in the works that's not quite as hard line as cornyn's. every day we're working to be an even better company -

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we've been talking about john cornyn's amendment being

called a poison pill, very attractive to republican politicians, republican senators worried about the primary challenge. i think this is a test for them 37 politically they see it, is this the way to prove i'm tough on border security to protect myself from a primary challenge. that's the challenge for supporters of immigration reform. marco rubio, part of the gang of eight, seemed to be supportive of cornyn's effort, and they reported rubio gave him an earful. let's listen to marco rubio thursday at a cattle call for possible republican presidential candidates. >> at the essence of our immigration policy is compassion. is the idea that not only do we believe that people from all walks of life can succeed f given the opportunity. we actually want that -- we actually want to be the place where they succeed. clearly through an orderly process, a legal process, through a way that's measured and good for our country, but we believe these things. we're motivated in that regard by our compassion. >> so, what it look it is like is happening now according to

latest recording is rubio and other republican senators and other members of the gang of eight, like bob corker, for example, are looking on another security amendment that wouldn't go as far as corner's. some of the reporting suggested that basically the amendment would take the power to set the plan for border enforcement away from dhs, away from the department of homeland security and janet napolitano, and let congress set the terms for how this would happen but it would not have that trigger, path to citizenship trigger. george, is that what you're hearing? >> yeah. the fundamental question is can republicans agree to a path to citizenship that's more or less unconditional. what you're asking undocumented immigrants to do is pay thousands of dollars of fines, learn the english language, stay employed, pay all their back taxes, pay into obama care but not receive all the benefits. so, once you ask them to do all that, jump through all the hoops, at the end of it has to be what is essentially a

guaranteed citizenship status. you can't do that -- have them do that for ten years and then when there's a republican president or republican congress say, oh, sorry, never mind. forget about that citizenship. so, that's really the question. and democrats have made it clear that that, to them, is a poison pill. >> what's interesting about the debate is even within the democrats they're starting to divide, right? you have chuck schumer, i don't know a bottom to the abyss schumer saying that -- he pretty much will accept anything that gets him 70 votes. some folks way outside the d.c. discussion have been protesting obama for his deportation, a father's day deportation -- anti-deportation rallies across the country in 30 cities -- 20 cities and 30 locations -- 30 different events. harry reid and dick durbin have now said there is a bottom. and i think they're starting to

hear the pressure from outside the beltway which is there's only so much repression latinos and other imgrajtds are going to take. that's the fact that has to be underlined in this. we're fed up with 1.7 million. if barack obama continues along the path that he's on, and he could be the big loser of this. let's look at this -- >> the line that was drawn sort of legislatetively the line drawn this week was on the cornyn amendment. you had even chuck schumer saying we're going not going that far. what's up in the air right now is this new compromise, this new potential amendment taking shape that marco rubio is involved in. that something schumer and other -- harry reid, dick durbin, other democrats would also get behind? when you hear the parameters of that, rick, wheets your impression of that? >> i mean, what i hear is -- roberto used the word repression. it sounds like the baseline bill is pretty darn represses ive. i don't think i could become a citizen under -- unless you're a spotless angel you can't join

the legitimate democratic citizenship of the united states? that's absurd. and you're getting to the point where you're -- you have to look these gang of eight senators in the eye and say, do you believe we're a nation of immigrants or not? do you believe immigration enriches our economy and pat ramone or not? are you trying to get in "time" magazine, like chuck schumer, this week is the master deal-maker. do you sell out the public policy interest to the country? >> the real practical question, we have been talking about immigration reform now for so long. we have seen it die in congress before. we watched it die six or seven years ago. roberto, to hear you talk about all the imperfections of this bill, they are glaring, absolutely. i mean, we call these things compromise. part of compromise, there are awful things that get in these bills. i wonder at this point, is it something you would say, sink this bill over, for instance, the -- not the cornyn amendment

but -- like rubio -- >> the overall legislation, as rick said, is very represses ive in its essence. the gang of eight, bipartisan consensus, will do nothing, absolutely nothing, to ameliorate the worst parts of immigration policy as far as persecuting, prosecuting, jailing, deporting, rating, terrorizing, killing immigrants. nothing except add $6 billion to increase border enforcement, add more money to i.c.e. when you get down in the details, it's not just devils but there's frankenstein and -- >> do you want to see it pass? >> in the immigrant community -- i was in a room full of afro-aleen notice immigrants here in the bronx yesterday. for two days we were in meetings, listening, talking. people are not used to this but they've been around this before. and people who follow this more closely than all of us are, i sense, kind of ready for either

way. if it passes, we're ready to accept that. but i'm already starting to hear people say, well, if this doesn't pass, we need to start looking for other solution. a lot of people don't know that most people in the united states have been legalized through what they call piecemeal where you have haitians, you have salvador and tps, you have deferred action like happened with the dreamers. you have different programs. many of which are right within barack obama's hands right now to do. and so that's why i was saying that the stakes are high, especially for barack obama. not just immigrants. he could end up, by the end of his term, end up departing 3.2 million people if nothing is done. >> we'll pick it up -- we had the question of the senate, touched on the question of the house earlier, and there are big questions even if this gets through the senate what happens in the house.

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fight over immigration reform is if and when this gets through the senate, then the battleground shifts to the house. john boehner, speaker, talked about the prospects of immigration reform this week. >> what's the most important thing you'll get done this year? >> i think immigration reform is probably at the top of that list. >> signed into law? >> i think by the end of the year, we could have a bill. >> one that passes the house, passes the senate, signed by the president? >> yeah, no question. >> we're not sure which bill it would be. republicans in the house are still talking, michelle, they'll have their own bill and we go through some kind of conference. most people i talk to in washington say realistically the only way anything gets through the house is it's the senate bill and republicans make a decision, 80% of us are voting against this but as a party we want this to go forward so we're going to put it on the floor. >> they have to do something. i agree, it has to be whatever comes out of the senate. this has-s a huge issue. outside of the immigration bill

itself, it's a huge issue about how our democracy works and about governance, period. if we take a step back and think about all of the immigration bills that have been passed in states throughout the country over the last few years, some have been ruled unconstitutional, some have not, but they basically gave license in alabama, for example, and in arizona for police officers to engage in nothing that's any less than racial profiling on a state by state basis. and then we have a republican party that is poised to lose election after election after election because if it's mistreatment of communities of color, particularly african-americans, particularly hispanics. now we have a chance to pass immigration reform and we have a republican party saying, we want to reach out to the hispanic community. we are of the big tent. we are a nation of immigrants. however, we're going to tie citizenship to border -- you know, to border security and all these other things. it's a huge, huge problem. and you have to sit back and say, why is it so difficult to have -- come up with common

sense policy initiatives and just vote and pass it into law? >> here's a graphic i think will explain, answer that question, maybe. if you look at republicans in the house, they call this republicans incentive problem. republican house districts with latino population of more than 25%. there are only 24 to start with. 15 were carried by romney by double digits, five were carried by romney by single digits. there's ayla tino population but overwhelming white population. in other words, only four republicans in the house, when you look at a general election incentive for individual general election -- >> you can't look at this and just rational electoral calculations because remember the last time george bush introduces immigration bill and it looked like it was going to pass. and house members were just

flooded, on their phones, because rush limbaugh opened up the flood gates. if you think about how the republican party works now and the caucus in the house, is there the kind of leadership? you talked about, well, maybe they can say 80% can vote against it, 20% to vote for it and kind of work a back room catch and release strategy, as karl rove called it, you have permission to vote for it, but in order for that to happen you need an effective leader, disciplined caucus. you look at how barack obama and boehner got in the room to do a budget deal and barack obama assumed boehner could sell the deal to his caucus and it blew up because we have a very undisciplined republican party that is kind of -- well, you could say the tail wags the dog, but you cannot say it's functioning as a rational political party. >> on wednesday gomer, michele

bachmann and king are having a debate all day. this is the ugly face of the gop opposition. this is john boehner's problem. king when dreamers came to his office he tweeted out he was literally being invaded by illegals, thanks to obama. contrast that with the president this week who stood up on the stage with dreamers, it goes to this question that rick asked, which is do republicans see undocumented immigrants, largely hispanics, as equals? steve king when he said illegals were invading his office, gave his answer. when we see that -- >> lincoln/douglas debate but sounds like you have a bunch of douglases? who's the lincoln? thanks to roberto lovato of presen presente.org. with o ur "

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this is one country, it has become one country because all of us and all the people who came here had an equal chance to develop their talents. we cannot say 10% of the population that you can't have that right. >> so, that speech got a lot of attention this week. it was exactly 50 years ago on tuesday that john f. kennedy delivered it to a prime time audience on national television. that's back when they were like three channels so anyone watching tv that night, saw it. kennedy had just ordered the national guard to help integrate the university of alabama and he announced he was submitting civil rights legislation to congress. this week that speech is being remembered as a moment of presidential courage and leadership. a big step towards ending legalized racial discrimination in america, and it was. it hastened a seismic political realignment in this country, radically weakened the party of

jfk and reformed republican into intensely conservative, southern party as we know today. as inspiring as it was, that jfk speech didn't actually do much to budge the civil rights debate in congress. there was a broad appetite in america for new laws but in congress there was unrelenting resistance from conservative democrats from the south and those conservative southern democrats had the votes to block civil rights. kennedy put an idea on the table. the idea that discrimination in businesses that serve the public should be outlawed. public accommodations clause, it became known as. when kennedy proposed it 50 years ago this month, everyone thought it was a bargaining chip, something he could eventually take off the table in order to get the south to give in. when kennedy was murdered five months later, the math changed. lyndon johnson knew how to channel that public grief into action. with the public grieving and lbj in the white house, a real civil

rights house, one with a public accommodations clause, became possible. on june 2, 1964 lbj signed one into law. something else happened that month, july 1964. less than two weeks after the civil rights act of 1964 was enacted, republicans gathered at cow palace in san francisco. i think it's still there. i think there's a minor league hockey team that plays there. anyway, they gathered in july 1964 and nominated for president a senator who had sided with the conservative southern democrat who is had tried to kill civil rights in the senate, barry g d goldwater. in the old confederacy he was a hit. goldwater fared better in the south in 1964 than just about any republican candidate since reconstruction fared. this was a clarifying national election for conservative white southerners who really began to see the national gop as their friend.

it was a turning point. in is where nixon's southern strategy and reagan infamous visit to philadelphia, mississippi, in 1980, in the demise of liberal republicanism. this is where they all have their roots. in the 13 presidential elections before 1964, that's the elections from 1912 to 1960, if you added up all of the electoral votes won by each party in the old confederacy, you would get 1,355 for democrats and only 231 for republicans, 54 for third-party candidates. now take the 13 elections since 1964. from that goldwater/lbj race through obama/romney last year, add it up and you get the complete opposite. 1,359 for republicans. only 423 for democrats. 47 for third parties. the third party was basically george wallace, segregationist democrat who ran as independent in 1968. it's gotten progressively worse for democrats. for a while they could win back some of the south by nominating

candidates from the region. jimmy carter, peanut farm from her 1976 or bill clinton in the 1990s. for decades after 1964 democrats kept chasing after dixie. but the realignment just wouldn't stop. by 2000 native tennesseen, al gore, lost every state south of the mason dixon line. a few years ago a political signist, tom schaller, wrote a book called "whistling past dixie," his argument it was time for democrats to give up in the south and build a winning coalition elsewhere. if you look around the south today, that seems self-evident from presidency to state houses to county courthouses, no region in the country as uniformly republican as the south. we look at what happened in 2008, when democrat, a barack obama broke through, and won three old confederacy states, the first time since lbj in '64 a democrat won virginia. first time since carter in '76 a

democrat won north carolina. last year in 2012 obama won two of those states again and came awfully state in north carolina. these states were winnable for the president because they look different than they use to. they're more diverse. more young professionals. they're not alone. the american prospect magazine ran a series called the end of the solid south. the thesis that rapidly changing demographics will soon make five big southern states serious political battlegrounds. not just florida, virginia and north carolina, but also georgia and texas. among those five states, there are 111 electoral votes. so, have we arrived at another critical turning point in history? one that marks the end of the democratic party's retreat in the south and one that could usher in a new era when being called a liberal and when doing liberal things won't mean automatic political death for candidates in the south. we'll talk about it next. nses w, he can focus on his recovery. he doesn't have to worry so much about his mortgage,

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author of "whistling past dixie," professor of political science at university of baltimore, maryland county and abby rapoport, writer at "the prospect." you wrote the book that changed the way democrats thought about the south and a lot of democrats say, that's pretty good advice. when you look at that american prospect series, you look at demographic changes in the south, do you think it's time to rethink a little of what you said and maybe some of the south is much more fertile for democrats? >> certainly parts of it with the peripheral rim south, north carolina, virginia, texas and certainly states with significant latino growth, will the states that come next. when will they come and how long will it take? if you read my book i say, look, the democrats, if you look at the demographics of the country, will be competitive again in the south. do you want your majority and supreme court appointments and presidential victories and senate now or do you want to

wait until 2024, 2030? bob mosser, who wrote a counter to my book, i like and respect him, i said, if you want to wait 20 years and wait for supreme court appointments now, go with this strategy or win and win now. the democrats picked up the 85% of seats, every late, senate, house, legislative nature outside the south. at one point harry reid had 50 non-southern senators, so technically a majority. nancy pelosi always needed a few house members but the black and latino members from the south so she had 218 points in 2007 without a single white southern democrat. so, i think the southern strategy has worked in the short term. when you look at accomplishments of 2006 and winning house and senate and obama's election, naets what gave you obama care. it was basically non-white southerners. if you like the policies, that's where you got them from. >> rick, i wonder, because you

wrote about sort of the -- we talk about 1964. you wrote about barry goldwater's era, nixon, you know the era and the transformation that played out in the south. do you see us reaching a turning point, the south and its role in american politics? >> yeah. i can't really speak to the statistics. the fascinating thing in the discussion is when people talk about the south terning democratic, i think a lot of people in their mind think in their mind the white south, right? but the white south isn't what it once was. i mean, i think people think about this famous line from bill moyer when lyndon johnson signed the civil rights bill and he said, i think we've signed away the south for the republican party for a long time. people don't really understand the other implication of that is that basically we've won the loyalty of northern blacks for a long time. so, you know, it wasn't always the case that 90% of blacks voted for the democratic party.

it was more like 60, 65, 70% of blacks voted for the democratic party. and as the south kind of begins to look more like america in its racial composition it will probably, yeah, become more democratic. but we're -- you know, we're not talking about, you know, the joe manchins, although west virginia is not quite the south, who put up campaign commercials shooting guns through the trade bill, but we'll talk about gun control later and manchin figures in that. things are a little rejiggered and we need to rethink these assumptions. >> michelle, i wonder, when you look at the last 30, 40 years, the trajectory of the republican party, i can remember still when there was a fair number of liberal moderate northeastern republicans left. but they were, you know, sort of -- as i was growing up, they were sort of relics and they pretty much all disappeared right now. that was sort of a product of the sort of southernifiction -- i don't know if that's a word

but we will say it is -- of the republican word. i think the stat us in the south is like 88% white. it's something like that. overwhelmingly white. what has that done to the republican party as a national force? >> i would say it's hurt the republican party. it started when somebody decided to have this great southern strategy, not in the same way you used it, we'll go back to george wallace if we have to go back that far but the southern white of yesteryear is fundamentally different. if you look at the demographics in all 50 states it's increasingly -- it is increasingly more majority/minority on a state by state basis. even in the south, to the extent people start looking at electoral politics in the south, if you look at the large numbers of hispanics and african-americans that are eligible to vote but who have not registered to vote and who don't vote and get them engaged

in the process as we see civil rights issues, for example, becoming more and more important. southern politics begins to look a lot different. >> let me be padantic as historian you might get in trouble like chris hayes saying he's republican. he wanted to be republican -- >> the southern strategy of nixon was predicated on winning over democrats. >> by 1974 and '75 all these conservative strategists were saying we need to form a new party with ragen and wallace running together and then it was completely redundant by 1980-84 because republicans did become the vehicle for southern, shall we say, old-fashioned values. >> we may have an interesting test of how new the new south is becoming this fall in virginia. man: the charcoal went out already? ... forget it. vo: there's more barbeque time in every bag of kingsford original charcoal. kingsford.

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so, of all the southern states that have changed or are changing demographically and politically, virginia has

changed most dramatically. voted for obama twice, two democratic senators. what's happening there, it's interesting, for a long time the argument in the democratic party was, well, how do we win back, you know, white southern voters? democrats are winning in virginia. it's not because they're winning back voters they lost. it's because the state's changing in two ways. a decade ago it was 64% white now it's 75% white and latino population doubled. it's the influx of people from -- more liberal people for the north for defense contracting work, the hampton roads area, the white population is becoming less conservative, more liberal. we have a test this fall, ab y a virginia governor's race and the democratic candidate, terry mccoum mccaullif, it says a lot about

democrat. >> i grew up in the hampton roads area and i think back to when we used to think of northern virginia as this liberal bastian that everyone ignored, oh, those people up there, and now they are virginia, by and large, certainly in terms of the population. i think the governor's race is sort of a -- the ultimate test because you have terry mcauliffe who is establishment, schmoozy democrat, and cucanelli, very far right, we talk about polarization, he is the republican right wing now, in certain ways. i think it's a real, like, choice. >> he's probably the kind of candidate a generation or so ago republican or democrats when conservatives were in the south could are gotten away with nominating in west virginia. maybe cucanelli wins this thing and we change our minds but this is a test of how much virginia

has changed, and if the state is rejecting someone like him right now. >> flrp more asian immigrants to the country. the first time latinos weren't number one. the asian-american population is growing at a faster rate now in the country. and, you know, abby's got a finally reported piece about texas. the thing about the new southern strategy, i don't know if you noticed it but you pointed out at rt start of the segment it's not any more how to convert bubba back, it's where do we take latinos, asians, getting them registered to vote. the southern strategy, in the last ten years, has changed. >> that changes -- there's interesting policy implications.

the idea of winning back bubba was let's move to the right and be conservative. if you look at where latinos are in polling, asians that voted for obama by three to one margin, they're more to the left of the mainstream democratic party. >> quickly, i just have to say something for terry mcauliffe not being a reincarnation of franklin delano roosevelt. i read his book review. i say polarization, either candidate is good for virginia, not so good for the working class. >> the friend of elite donors that could win on a democratic ticket and win -- >> if we talk about demograph s demographics, it's not just asian and hispanic, but in northern virginia, the women's vote is going to be incredibly important. we're seeing a lot of ads in the

washington, metropolitan area that deal with ken and his ideas in the workplace, women's reproductive rights, and my mantra is always, women's issues but we've seen bizarre statements -- >> you're calling them idea? >> -- come up about women and women's role in society. and i think it's going to be very important and people have to watch that. >> i want to get to the rest of the south as well including what has been the great white whale for democrats, the state of texas. lth clinical. after my last dentist's visit, i was like, "i need to take this up a notch." [ male announcer ] try crest pro-health clinical together to keep your teeth 97% as clean as a dental cleaning. i mean, there's a difference right from the beginning. my mouth felt cleaner. i could really feel it changing something for the better. [ male announcer ] go pro with crest pro-health clinical. ahh, look who's not an amateur anymore! my mouth is so clean my dentist almost didn't know what to do. i was like "that's it?" he was like "yeah, that's it!" [ chuckles ]

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schaller. i teased texas before the break -- i was very respectful, but abby you wrote about this for the american prospect series we're talking about. i want to set this up by putting up a telling statistic about texas. these are the state's demographics according to 201 kr census. you look at that and you say, i totally get why democrats are always talking about turning text next blue. say, why haven't they done it already? this is the actual turnout pattern, 2010. we didn't have numbers for 2012 because they didn't do an exit poll in 2013. whites, 67%. latino, 17%. black, 13%. asian, 1%. abby, what's going on in texas? >> well, i think one of the things that's been a real problem in texas is you've always had this fight over the white vote, right? which we were eluding e ing tin the rest of the south as well. and texas' demographics are

changes rapidly and i don't think the political strategies and institutions have been able to keep up with that shift. you're talking talking about the 2010 texas governor's race was a guy named bill white, former mayor of houston, kind of well liked with the business community, is running a race that by all accounts this is going to be the race, right? this is the time. and, you know, his campaign was focused very, very much on convincing white voters. when you look at the demographics you're wondering, well, why? i think the other thing to remember, texas hasn't built as many political and kind of civic institutions as a lot of other states. so you have this gap in bringing people into the political process, a real lag. you haven't had in the last, you know, two decades, at least one decade, a real investment in kind of bringing new folks into the political process. >> so, now that's -- so that is changing now. i don't know if people know the

story, jeremy bird, like the turnout gu rooe rue for the obama campaign, has made texas his project. >> yeah, set it in his sights. there's a group called battleground texas, the executive director is jen brown who oversaw the operation in ohio, obviously a success for the obama campaign, and jeremy bird is the senator adviser but founded it. and their idea is largely based around turnout. it's saying we are going to go into texas and we're going to mobilize latino voters and i think convince women, that's the one group they're working on convincing, and win the state through that process. and so they've only been in the state really since february. not very long. and i think the big question for them, obviously the obama people do turnout -- do mobilization better than almost anyone else, the question is, how long can they be there? i think in texas it's not a question of 2014 or really even 2016. it's a long-term question. but if you invest for those five or ten years, do you make it

happen a lot faster than you would have if you're just waiting on the demographic shift and waiting 20 years plus. >> this is exactly right. i'm not the only person but ten years ago we were having a big debate about the revival of the left and the democratic party. and the real question is, do you want a conversion strategy moving voters over or have a mobilization strategy? conversion was so tempting. we have to get the soccer moms, nascar dads, guys in unions butter they on guns. it's alluring. you're taking one and adding one. if you can mobilize a vote for 50 cents or less on a dollar to convert a vote, it's more efficient. there's a series of people, including me with others but you can do conversion but you really need to do mobilization. obama proved you don't need to spend your time to convert nascar dads. the easiest to convert, are fastest to go back. i completely agreer with what

jeremy mcbird is trying to do, change the first set of numbers into -- >> there's a stat that i counted a few weeks ago that shocked me. african-american turnout in north carolina last year. this is a battleground state that was targeted for mobilization. 77%. in arkansas, which was -- everybody wrote off arkansas, republicans, it was 47%. that was the difference of having a mobilization effort. >> what i was going to say as a historian i have to offer a caveat that i'm always uncomfortable talking about long-term demographic trends. dy a series of posts for "the nation" blog in which i said something like demographic -- demographic something change is not democratic inevitability. one of my points was, people's ideological identifications are not imprinted on their genes. they can change. they have changed. and in the '40s and '50s and into the '60s and '70s, people said, how can republicans become a majority party when the core

of the democratic coalition, which is what they then called white ethnics, white irish, eastern european, italians, were a growing share of the population. in fact, there was a book that came out in 1959 that said the democrats were going to be the party of the future because there are so few wasps and so many white ethnics. the white ethnics often became republicans over these backlash issues. also, you know, there's a long history in america of immigrant groups, quote/unquote, becoming white, right? there's nothing to say that, let's say we pass comprehensive immigration reform. let's say, although it seems like a miracle at this point, that kind of hispanic voters are more and more brought into the mainstream middle class american community. maybe they'll start thinking more like republicans. maybe the republican party moderates a little and you have to rewire these kind of -- kind of reed fied assumptions about the fact that more hispanics

always means more democrats. >> i think the problem is you have this intense polarization going on at the time. >> it's true. >> so it's hard to have your cake and eat it, too. if you're the republicans or democrats. i think the problem often is we talk about the party staying static and people choosing between two static parties. if latinos become the face of the texas democratic party that will be a very different party than the party it is right now in terms of issue priority, in terms of who's being represented and how. and so i think -- you know, i think you're right but the republicans as we've been seeing on all the issues of the show, you know, today are staking out some pretty hard core positions, you know -- >> and i want to ask michelle about this. i want to set this up by playing two clips. this is something interesting, i think a dynamic in texas. rick perry, you might remember he ran for president n 2011 in a debate he was asked about public schools for the children of illegal immigrants. this is his somewhat surprising

response to a national audience. >> if you say that we should not educate children who have come into our state for no other reason other than they've brought there by no fault of their own, i don't think you have a heart. >> and i was going to play a second clip but forget it. i'm just going to play that one. michelle, it seems like there's a politician, rick perry, all his demographics in texas, been re-elected a number of times, is there a lesson from rick perry there for republicans? >> is that statement he made was the most intelligent statement he made throughout his career running for the presidency. texas, unlike other states, the texas republican party, to its credit, has done a much better job than the national republican party in reaching out to latinos. and trying to -- and trying to get latinos to become a part of the state republican party. that being said, the big elephant in the room is the national republican party. and rick perry was absolutely

decimated by his republican cohorts for making that statement. we saw in the 2012 presidential election statements about, you know, getting people to self-deport, for example. horrible racist statements about, you know -- made by sheriff arpaio and another sheriff in north carolina. that's a huge problem for republican party and some of the reporting i've seen will tell you that right now if a lot of the hispanics that were eligible to vote actually voted in texas, it would be an almost competitive state. so what is happening right now in texas is fascinating because i think we're talking about 36 or 38 electoral votes in the state of texas. if this group is successful and texas can actually become competitive and becomes a blue state, what does that say for presidential elections every four years forward. >> what i think of is california. we used to think of california as an extension of the sun belt

and then voted republican consistently from '66 to '88. in 1994 proposition 18 4shgs pete wilson got behind it, republican party got behind it, denying public sveervices toile legal immigrants, children of illegal immigrants. california has not been competitive since. abby, do voters in texas appreciate the distinction between the rhetoric of like a rick perry and the rhetoric of the national republican party? >> i think republicans in texas have been much more sensitive to what's happening in their state more than national republicans have been. that said, you can look at two things. one is support for schools and sment for obama care. on those two issues, which poll extremely high with latino voters, republicans in texas are about as far to the right as anyone. you have a state where rick perry said, we don't need to worry about expanding medicaid. that's not something we're going to deal with. which has been the position of any other republican governor. the other thing i would add to

that is -- well, rick, you -- >> no. >> rick knows as i know, south became more democratic, whites in south vote more and more republican. the blacker the states, the more the republican whites vote. mississippi and alabama, look at 90% votes for cain, romney, bush. the question over time, the democrat, if it happens -- latino went to 72%, the increasing identification of latinos with the democratic party, will that create a next wave of -- >> i've seen counties like in east texas where it almost feels like that's already happened. >> it's it won't be a free vote. >> i think to thank tom schaller and abby rappaport of "the american prospect," how voting for the party not the person will likely save a democratic senate seat, at least this year.

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the last time there was a special election for the u.s. senate in massachusetts, scott brown stole the show in the final televised debate with this line. >> we know from the clinton experience that if this bill fails, it could well be another 15 years before we see a health care reform efforts again in washington. are you willing, under those circumstances, to say, i'm going to be the person, i'm going to sit in teddy kennedy's seat and i'm going to be the person to block it for another 15 years? >> it's not the kennedy seat, it's the people's feet. >> he defeated martha coakley. we are now in the home stretch of another special senate race

in massachusetts. the election is nine days away. the final debate will be on tuesday. it is possible that the republican candidate, gabriel gomez, will turn in the kind of performance scott brown did three years ago and par lay it into an election triumph. it's possible but not likely. it's now been six weeks since gomez won the republican primary. still no evidence he's caught on with the public or that he's capable of catching on with the public. the congressman ed markey is leading around ten points in polling average. in the two debates that have already been held gomez has been flatten flattened, almost awkwardly. ma markey kept a low profile and isn't stirring the passion of the masses. i said, democrats were taking a gaem gamble with markey, a house in the tony d.c. suburbs, insiderdom they sometimes rebel

against. the fact he isn't leading by a larger margin is a testament to his vulnerabilities. but still he's leading, led the whole way and a good chance he'll lead all the way to the finish line. that is testament to a much bigger trend in american poli c politi politics. one joe biden stumbled upon in a speech this week. biden said, quote, it's a pretty simple proposition. united states of america and the state of massachusetts does not need republican in the senate. i'm being straight about this. this is not your father's republican. they don't get it. to the heart of it, voters across the country are taking to heart more than ever. when it comes to elections for senate and house, vote the party, not the candidate. this is a relatively recent development in american politics. a generation ago it was common for them to split the ticket, one party's candidate for president and one for senate.

but split-ticketing voting is rapidly can declining. 6% of romney voted for the opposite house. party labels used to mean very different things to very different people. today they speak to deep geographic cultural and ethnic divides in our society. more than ever, we're becoming a nation of straight-ticket voters. especially when it comes to federal office. in a blue state like massachusetts, that makes it a lot harder for republican like gomez to break through or for a democrat like ed markey to blow an election. in fact, massachusetts is the most dramatic illustration of the trend toward straight-ticket voting. the state has nine congressional districts and ten for the two decades before the most recent round of redistricting. not a single one of those districts has elected a republican to the house since 1994. there have been 91 individual house elections in massachusetts in that time, and 91 of them have been won by democrats. last fall republicans were sure they were going to end that streak. john tierney, democrat democrat

congressman from north of boston, was hit with a scandal that would kill most political careers. his wife and brother were indicted for offshore gambling and they did time, and they testified saying he knew about everything and quoted as the biggest liar in world. to run against tirn any, republicans nominated openly gay former state legislature, the best candidate republicans could find in a state like massachusetts. everyone figured tirn any was a goran. his own party gave him up for dead. when the results were in, he still won. that's what happens when voters vote for the party and not the person. it doesn't happen always but happening more than ever. it's a trend that will probably save a senate seat for democrats in massachusetts next week but also a trend that could complicate their chances in other states in 2014. want to talk about another factor in the 2014 elections, a billionaire's new tactic on gun control turning democrats against themselves.

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friday marked the six-month anniversary of the massacre at sandy hook. at a press conference with victims' families the day before that anniversary, harry reid spoke in rarely personal terms about his own experience with gun violence. >> those of us who experience suicide in our lives understand how important it is to remember. my dad killed himself with a pistol. and he was a relatively young man, especially as i get older, his age doesn't look old. we have to remember what took place in connecticut, at that little elementary school. and can never take those names out of our minds. >> today six months after newtown, on father's day, here's

where we are. since newtown there have been 15 mass shootings, including one yesterday in omaha, nebraska, in which flee people were killed and two critically wounded, following a mass shooting in st. louis thursday and another in santa monica where a gunman carried 1300 rounds onto a college campus, killing five in total. 46 snores voted in april to block the manchin/toomey. in conjunction with father's day, one newtown party, neil, is joined with the group no fathersday.org to send these cards to congress. >> on tuesday joe biden will host a white house event to promote administration's efforts

to gun. this is the first time the president or vice president has held a public event solely dedicated to the event. mayor michael bloomberg sent a letter to more than 2,000 democratic donors asking them not to give money to four senate democrats who voted against background checks. max baucus, mark beg vich of alaska, and heidi high camp of north dakota. bloomberg's group, mayors against illegal guns, held a bus rally. all spurred talks of a second push in the senate of background checks and of potential compromises that could win over some senators who voted no the first time. at his press conference with newtown families on thursday, harry reid seemed to draw a line. >> i want to be very, very clear, though. in order to be effective, the bill that passes the senate must include background checks and not a watered down version of background checks.

>> back with us at the table we have michelle bernard of bernard center for women, politics and public policy. rick perlstein of "the nation" magazine, and josh benson, co-founder of capital.com which covers culture. and someone i have to thank for my career. he was my editor for a while. i'm interested in this bloomberg letter. we have mark pryor last week. and now he's saying shut off the source of money to these senate democrats. we have a clip. i'll play it. this is bloomberg explaining his strategy, his rationale for doing this. this was on "morning joe" thursday. >> the first thing i'm going to do is get it through the senate. then you focus on republicans. i've been running more ads against republicans than against democrats. then you go and you sit down with boehner and cantor and the leadership on the republican

side and the house and say, look, if you want your members to get re-elected, they should vote with the public. >> so, that was wednesday, not thursday, by the way. but, george, i'm curious what the reaction among democrats in washington is. it seems complicated because on the one hand he's hurting some of his own but on the other hand his money helps them, too. >> you see schumer and reid say this is a bad idea. the public is already here. when you have nine out of ten supporting background checks. you don't have to worry about winning over public. you have to win over members of congress and that's what bloomberg is trying to do, create an infrastructure for gun control reform, parallel to what the nra has done, because they've been the school yard bullies, so to speak. you create incentives for these members of congress, which are the only ones at this point,

standing in the way of reform. >> what kind of effect -- this may be spin on their part but democrats, like mark pryor, mark beggis is begich, this is the billionaire new york mayor this is going to help me with constituents because i'm the rural guy being attacked by the big guy. do you think this will have an effect? >> look, we're talking about nine out of ten americans. you don't become a billion airbe being stupid. bloomberg knows how to negotiate. i mean, in my home city of chicago, people were saying, well, the chicago teachers union shouldn't be calling a strike that might hurt barack obama right before the elections. well, guess what? they won the strike, right? and he knows how to negotiate. he's placing pressure where there's actually pressure to be placed. and to hear harry reid on the one side give this incredibly emotional speech about his father being -- committing suicide with a gun and hearing him out of the other side of his mouth saying, don't put pressure on these people publicly to

bloomberg, why isn't he publicly saying to the mark begichs of the world and democratic senators don't go against nine out of ten of your constituents? i think that it's kind of sad. >> i wonder, michelle, and this makes me curious, i get on the one hand of put pressure on pryor of arkansas and i say he has in his past voted for the nra. he voted for the assault weapons ban reauthorization in 2004 so he has broke with them before. if you take out mark pryor you'll replace him with a republican who will almost never vote against the nra. i get the idea but are you hurting yourself in the long run? >> see, i'm the contrarian on this. i don't think that he is hurting himself in the long run because there -- if -- the only way these people are going to actually do something is if they are motivated by self-interest.

it's very peculiar we're talking about the fact that all of these children could be slaughtered and these democrats and republicans voted against the bill, but when you started talking about what's going to impact their ability to be re-elected, which is money, all of a sudden there is a little bit of chatter. so, i -- so in the long run, he's doing the absolute right thing. as we talked about governance in an earlier segment. this is an enormous issue about governance and how we get our members of congress to do what we elect them to do. >> really quickly, why is it bad for the democratic party to say, we need to build a democratic party grand if a way that's going to help these senators get elected in the future by being seen as on the side of an issue that nine out of ten people agree with us. why aren't the people like mark pryors be seen as harming their electoral prospects by making a position -- like max baucus said i have to do this because the people of my state want it, even in his state it was 70% that was for background checks. >> it's almost as if the only

way member of congress who vote against this bill will feel the pain of every parent whose child was slaughtered, and you talked about living in chicago, all of the african-american children killed on a daily basis in the city of chicago alone because of gun violence, may be the only way members of congress feel the same pain their families feel, is if they actually lose an election because they're not voting the way their constituents want them to vote. for that, i think michael bloomberg should be applauded. >> i want to pick up on the pressure bloomberg is getting from chuck schumer, interesting relationship within new york with two national figures in new york. affair of sorts with greek nonfat yogurt, loaded with protein 0% fat that thick creamy texture, i was in trouble. look i'm in a committed relationship with activia and i've been happy and so has my digestive system. now i'm even happier since activia greek showed up because now i get to have my first love and my greek passion together, what i call a healthy marriage. activia greek. the feel good greek.

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so, the reason chuck schumer and other top democrats in washington are, you know, apprehensi apprehensive, to say the least, about what bloomberg is doing is their senate majority is really at risk in 2014 and really dependent in 2014 on a lot of, you know, less blue states, more red states. someone like pryor in arkansas. schumer basically said public this week he wishes mike

bloomberg would think about this in term if you have a democratic senate you're more likely to get gun legislation than if you have a republican senate. i wonder what someone like mike bloomberg thinks when he hears a message like that, josh. >> they're both saying things that are true. two guys talk regularly and playing their assigned roles. chuck schumer, good for the country, necessary for the country, including to achieve the political goals he set out to achieve, like gun control, background checks in particular. but the thing about mike bloomberg is if anyone can play a lawn game, that's him. if anyone can brush off concerns expressed by schumer is him because he'll probably never run for anything again and he has a zillion dollars. so, what schumer and the democrats are saying is quite correct. the bloombergism on gun control in practice is a lot more sloppy than in theory. if they get a scalp with pryor, that will set the cause back, for sure and set it back for a while, and that applies

generally to anything that causes republicans to be closer to taking over majority in the senate. but what a lobby is supposed to number bloomberg's mind -- bloomberg, by the way, doesn't believe in political parties and extrapolates what he beliefs as useless parties to the national political landscape, if that's the idea that you've got to be consistent on the issue and punish people wherever you k can, he's going to do that. one other way -- i'll shut up in a second. one other way i think it's going to be more complicated to use your word before over the long term is that you could argue bloomberg and his group is always going to be in a position to put more pressure on democrats than republicans. and so the idea -- what they've said is, this cycle there happen to be a lot of vulnerable democrats. the four that they've chosen are not -- let's not count baucus, but the ones they've chosen is the organic function of that's

where the money is and that's who's vulnerable. clearly they'll be in a position to move the democratic constituencies more than republican constituencies forever. >> that's other thing, george, the republicans -- part of this is sessentially republicans got past this because it didn't get to the floor of the house and you didn't get hundreds of republicans to vote on this. >> i think that's true, but i think if -- bloomberg is playing -- the mantra in d.c. is it's about the first vote, it's about the last vote. what happens when you keep pushing like this? i think one bloomberg may say here, while he is playing the lawn game, is that he's not really trying to defeat mark pryor. he's not really trying to defeat theme democrats. he's trying to put the fear of god in them. have you a year and a half before midterm, get something to change their position, nine out of ten constituents back, it gets to the house and we see

what happens with the republicans. boehner lets it pass with democratic votes or it fails and you hammer republicans that vote against it. that's the strategy here. >> there was something under the radar in nevada, the republican governor vetoed a bill that made it through legislature this year, background checks in nevada. and bloomberg's group was heavily involved in the campaign to get this enacted. you could say it was sort of a success for them they got this through to legislature and maybe this gives them a new target, for the upcoming election with sandoval running for re-election in nevada but this is also -- you know, in the end, they ran the same thing at the state level in a pro-gun state they ran in the senate in nevada. >> it's really important to understand that republican voters and republican politicians are not necessarily persuadable on this issue by these kind of arguments we've been seeing, heart-rendering cards these folks have been sending to their congressmen and

senators about how awful it is to lose a father. don't work the same way because this is an issue in which the mindset is completely different. a liberal looks at a card like this and says, isn't it awful these school shootings that keep on happening. let's bring those to the forefront because that helps us and makes people want more gun control. but if you think like a conservative and you think in terms of good people and evil people, the predominance of the evil people makes you want less gun control, more guns. if the bad guys have a machine gun -- >> the good guy with the gun verse the bad guy with the gun -- >> it's very important for liberals to understand this. i hear it all the time, is it going to take ten more school shootings, 100, 1,000 more school shootings before people realize how dangerous guns are? no. the more school -- >> if that won't do it, what will? >> mobilizing democrats. >> yeah, it has to be a party line -- >> i guess it is mobilizing people who believe in gun

control. i mean, and maybe goes back into the conversation we had earlier in the show today about, you know, building the party, building demographics, going out, mobilizing voters, getting people who are eligible to vote but are not voting or not registered to vote to do so. something has to give. this is an enormous problem on gun control, on immigration, on every single issue we're dealing with. congress is at a standstill. it's ludicrous to hear an argument -- mayor bloomberg, please don't do this because we're better off with a democratic majority in the senate but the democratic majority didn't do anything either so you're basically saying, let's stand for status quo. >> if anything on guns happens before the election, it's going to have to involve some of these red state democrats who voted no and involve some republicans in the senate. we'll talk about what it would take, what it might take, what it could possibly take to get those people on board to get this into senate, into law before the next elections.

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i want to talk about what's next. i want to pick up on something we were talking about at the end of the last discussion. the idea that if nothing is really going to convince republicans in congress to move in big numbers on this, and this becomes an issue, it's a question of getting democrats into office to, you know, to be the gun control party, basically. josh, it strikes me that bloomberg is sort of working at cross-purposes with himself here. not just on the question of guns but this is a guy who throws lots of money around on other issues. like on climate change, for instance up. think of backing scott brown in massachusetts last year over elizabeth warren. if you look at that strictly from the issue of guns, elizabeth warren would be the better candidate for gun control, but it was scott brown bloomberg was throwing his money around. >> bloomberg and his aides aare gued forcefully that he was doing a silly thing there in any way by opposing the candidate who would be much better on gun control in whole. he said it explicitly, talking about scott brown, he was a good

guy, did a good thing on one amendment that would allow people to carry guns, reciprocal reciprocity, and said someone needs to have his back for having done the right thing. again, this was a neat dismissal of partisan politics. we'll come up against that again and again because, again, he's also committed to supporting pat toomey in the future, who's a very conservative republican, who does not agree with the bloomberg world view on most things. in fact, on guns, doesn't agree with most of what the bloomberg -- >> background checks are probably the most you'll get out of pat toomey on guns. >> right. it's a really sticky thing. once you're talking about how transactionally you want to be about it, what you want to be rewarding in the short term as opposed to what you want to be rewarding in the long term. it's actually not possible to ignore parties entirely. but with bloomberg, i think the idea, again, is right now he has

to do, as you said, what he has to do is put the fear of god in people. for that matter you could argue from the gun control perspective, the very best thing that could happen, the very best outcome for this cycle is that they don't quite get a scalp but they may get -- everyone they're targeting almost loses. never, never behave that way again. >> they're in their heads. we'll see if this kind of threat is in the heads of members of the congress, of the senate. there's talk of reviving the background checks bill and maybe making further concessions, exceptions for rural states, exceptions for individual transfers. it gets to the point, is the point just to get something through or could something meaningful still get through right now? >> i hope so. even with all of the amendments we're hearing about, i think there is -- it is absolutely possible for something, for some sort of meaningful legislation to get through. quite frankly, i think they have to do it. just for matters of self-preservation. at least pretending to do what they are elected to do, that something will get through. >> it's a landslide issue.

this is one of these issues -- i talked about the democracy deficit in the first segment. whether we have a functional responsive democracy, this is one of the litmus test issues. >> well, george, richard bloo n blo , the way he phrased it in terms of making more concessions we have to give them a commandable way to change their votes. what would -- >> this is the way politics works. kelly ayotte cannot just change her mind and vote yes on the exact same bill she voted no on. politicians don't do that. the idea here is to make -- he is cosmetic, the one cot mettic is the rural exception thing. if you don't live -- i think the language was 150 miles of a licensed gun dealer, background check giver, don't worry about it. i did research and i went out on the peninsula of alaska, i found

a little town, randomly picked it, and it was still within 150 miles of a licensed gun dealer. >> don't say that. >> hopefully no republicans are watching. that's a cosmetic change. that's senators in rural states can say we won this exepgs but in practice it's not a big exemption. >> i think they're talking about person-to-person exemption -- >> the father gives it to the son. >> no son is mentally ill. >> that raises another issue about mental healthness.

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we should know nfl has no plans to change the name of the washington redskins. the bipartisan group of 10 legislators wrote requesting the name, which really is a slur, finally be changed. this week we learned goodell wrote back defending the name. he wrote, quote, for the team's millions of fans and customers who represent one of america's

most ethnically and geographically diverse fan bases, the name is a unifying force that stands for pride, respect. they have staunchly defended the team's name publicly. but according to think progress, republican pollster wrote about the team's name. deny any connection to the work, didn't respond to the request for comment. we should know washington city paper, weekly newspaper in d.c., has already decided to refer to the team as the pig skins. we should go with that probably. like many defeated primary candidates before him, we should onknow rick santelli storm doesn't think the ultimate candidate ran a campaign. he said romney missed a major opportunity with obama's you didn't build that comment. he said trotting out business owner after business owner at the republican convention to mock the president's comment made the party look completely out of touch. santorum said, quote, one after

another they talked about the business they built. not a single factory worker went out there. not a single janitor, waitress or person who worked in that country. we didn't care about them. you know what, they built that company, too. we should have had them on the stage. finally, 90-year-old republican enjoyed his time at the lgbt victory fund that is until he realized where he was. he's a staunch defender of the defense of marriage act and defended the fundraiser due to a scheduling error. he initially believed he was at an event to honor a congressman. justin snow, political reporter for metro weekly spotted hall at the event and tweeted this picture writing, quote, gop representative ralph hall, a doma supporter wandered into the reception. he seems to be lost. when he realized he was in the wrong room, he bolted. he said many of those in attendance probably were surprised to see me walk in but were not surprised to see me leave quickly.

want to find out what my guests think we should know going forward. >> 50 years ago this week john f. kennedy invited lawyers to meet with him in the east room of the white house and asked those lawyers to help him take the ballots for civil rights out of the streets and into the courts. it was a radical notion to get lawyers to defend civil rights of african-americans in the south, in the court system. on that day the lawyers committee for civil rights was born. it's one of the most important civil rights organizations in the nation's history and they will be celebrating their 50th anniversary this week. >> all right, rick. >> we should know it's father's day and roger goodell's father was a great liberal republican senator who should be rolling over in his grave, the hateful kmepts of the commissioner. i'd also like to mention my own father is in the hospital recovering from surgery and we're all thinking about our families today with love. >> all right. george. >> i think what people should really know this week is congress is ready to put food

stamps on the chopping block. the house is going to take up the farm bill this week. they are already -- the bill that came out of the agriculture committee proposed cutting $20 billion from food stamps, which would throw 2 million people off the program at a time when dependence on it is at a record high. it would cost 280,000 jobs. unfortunately a bill came from the senate cutting $4 billion passed by democrats who should have known better, i think. there's going to be a debate about how much to cut and people need to watch that and stay on top of it. >> josh. >> the justice department, eric holder raised the stakes in what we have that's as close to a debate about gun control in the new york city mayor's race, the stop and frisk. there's a federal judge making a decision whether the program violates the law and justice department stipulated an outside monitor be put in if the judge finds, in fact, that has happened. that stands to have a profound impact on how the police go about their business. >> definitely. happy father's day i should say,

too. i look at my dad, he's 20 feet away. i'll go have lunch after this. thank michelle bernard for center for women in politics, public policy, and george benson of capital new york.com. thanks for getting up and thank you for joining us. we'll be back next weekend saturday and sunday at 8:00 a.m. eastern time talking about next week's special election to fill john kerry's senate seat. will democrats avoid another scott brown surprise. coming up next melissa harris-perry. the supreme court on the precipice of a monumental shift in the country's ongoing struggle for civil rights. how the roberts court could undo decades of progress, what can be done about it. that's melissa harris-perry coming up. we'll see you next week on "up." every day we're working to be an even better company - and to keep our commitments.

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this morning my question, when is it right to defend evil. plus republicans embracing civil rights as a branding strategy. and a fresh look at city dads on this father's day. first, our civil rights in danger at the supreme court next weekend and we have a nerdland panel to break down the struggle. good morning. i'm ari melber sitting in this weekend for melissa harris-perry. in modern america we have a story we tell ourselves about civil rights. it's about protest movements pushing the courts and courts pushing politicians even as they resisted to defend the status quo. today we want to explore a slightly different take on the story. this is a story where they are turning against social movements and a mantle of a color-blind society. it