it won't necessarily change the top three any one way or the other. >> hunter walker gets tonight's last word, thanks, hunter. >> thanks. shutdown warning. let's play "hardball." ♪ >> good evening. i'm chris matthews. let me start with this. the wild right is readying its attack. the ted cruz wing is about to -- to bring the u.s. government to a halt and confront republican leaders in washington with its ultimatum. those worried leaders do as they're told to kill obama care even if that means shutting down the federal government or else. fueling this is the right-wing base of the country that now commands the fears of republican congressmen far more than

anything the weak john boehner can say or do or pretend to do or hope to do. here is a town hall meeting held by robert pettinger. pay close attention to who's calling the attention here. does this guy look anything like john boehner? even a little? >> real quick, easy question. this is what the tea party wants to know. will you vote with mike lee to defund obama care? yes or no? >> a thoughtful answer? >> i want yes or no. >> no. >> if any republican votes against it, does not get funded. that's a fact. >> it has to be signed by the president of the united states. >> will you make a stand -- >> shut down the government.

>> do you think harry reid is going to pass that in the senate? >> it doesn't matter. >> we need to show the american people we stand for conservative values. >> i'm joined by democratic strategist steve mcmahon, and republican strategist john. it's your party. looks like your republican is the loudest voice of the republican party, not john boehner. and that's the direction of your party, i think. am i right? >> you are right because the republican party is a conservative party. that's why generally conservative candidates win republican primaries. it's the people who have the core convictions that are the loudest and show up for things like town hall meetings. you're right, the passion in the republican party is among the conservatives. >> when that congressman tried to explain to that constituent that even though we vote to defund it, it will never get repealed because you have to get it repealed through the senate which is controlled by the democrats and signed by the president. making that rational argument didn't seem to make much news to the guy challenging him, did it?

>> and that does happen. but i will tell you, defunding it even if it doesn't get through the senate will actually be good for republicans. it will probably help them pick up a majority in the senate. >> how so? how does it change reality? >> well, it will change reality because it might change the numbers in the united states senate. you change the numbers in the united states senate and you can change health care forever in this country, particularly kill a bill that republicans feel is going to kill jobs -- >> a law, not a bill, it's a law. it's the law of the land. you guys keep calling it a bill as if it wasn't enacted by the congress and signed by the president. it was. why do you keep calling it a bill, john? >> you can change bills. you can change laws. >> of course, you can. it takes two congress -- two houses of congress and the president. is that what they're talking about doing here or some sort of pr move to appeal to the hard right? >> i don't really -- i believe this is their beliefs. >> okay fine. let me go to steve on this.

it seems to me what we see is a take-over bid by the hard right republican party. if you don't play their game and stop government and defund obama care, if you don't do that, it seems to me you're in big trouble. i agree with john. it's an ultimatum, a take-over bid. if you're not with the hard right, you're not with the right. >> they have voted 40 times now to appeal obama care. everyone in congress has done what the hard right wants, and it's gotten them a 7% approval rating. >> follow john's point, steve. you're a democrat, but follow his point. what is the hard right up to? it seems to me they are into a takeover bid. no more liberals, no more republicans, we're going to take over the party. if you're not willing to fight to the last vote. if you're not going to play all of the pr games. if you don't play that game, you're out of here. that seems to be the message. >> that's not just a message. that's what -- that the message they're sending and that's the message that's being received. if you look at the number of incumbent republicans who don't have any vulnerability from a democrat, their only

vulnerability is on the right, they're petrified of these people. then you look at people like mitch mcconnell who actually is vulnerable on the right and left. >> i think he could lose the primary. i want you to jump on this. i think you have a good case here. >> get it right, will you, there? >> i work at this. brabender. okay? brabender. let's take a look yesterday at a rare public display, the presidential nominee urged his republican party to fight back against ted cruz and tea party allies. speaking at a fund-raiser in new hampshire, he said a motion is understandable, understandably at play in washington among some of our fellow republicans that badly want obama care to go away and stripping it of funds has appeal, but we need to exercise great care about any talk of shutting down government. what would come next when soldiers aren't paid, when seniors fear their medicare and social security aren't coming and the fbi is off duty? i'm afraid in the final analysis obama care would get its funding, our party would suffer in the next elections and the

country would not be happy. he went on to warn republicans that extremists in the republican party need to be recognized for what they are, unelectable. quote, this is romney. we have got to stay smart, very smart. staying smart means backing candidates who can win, but there would be one or two perhaps that could win or would win the election in november. think it through, stay smart. what's he talking about? john? >> i think you've got to be careful. first of all on obama care. taking advice from romney is like taking advice from the captain of the "titanic" nautical advice from that captain. romney care was the precursor for -- the second thing where romney is wrong with the republicans are talking about is not shutting down the government. what they're talking about is defunding obama care. while still having the funding for everything else in place. we can argue whether that's a good idea or not, but what romney is throwing out there i think is wrong. >> wait a minute, let's get the truth out.

they're saying if any continuing resolution to keep the government open includes any money for obama care, to implement a law, they will shut down the government. they will vote not to continue the government. that's what they're saying. >> that's not what cruz's office said today. what they put out is they believe there should be funding in place for all of the important things, but this is a defunding of obama care. >> that's the law of the land. how do you pass a continuing resolution that doesn't fund lawfully created programs? >> you don't. >> i think they want to do that. >> for a guy who's as smart -- go ahead. >> go ahead, john. make your point. i think you're making the same point i'm making. isn't it true -- let me ask you this. isn't it true if ted cruz says if you put a nickel in there for obama care, i'm not voting for it? >> i think he's standing his ground and saying we have to kill obama care once and for all. look, even the democrats are trying to kill obama care. they just delayed it by a year because they're worried about what it will do to the 2014 elections.

>> they're not trying to kill it. let's get back. you have a vote on the house floor tomorrow. there will be maybe four democrats voting against it, the same who voted against it when it first came up. back to you, steve. >> mitt romney may be the pink flamingo standing out in the yard who embarrasses folks, but he's speaking a fundamental truth. if you look at the track record of the tea party people who have run for congress, only one in three has been successful. if you look at seven of the nominees republicans put up in u.s. senate races that lost races they probably should have won if they had a candidate who was more in the mainstream. mitt romney's absolutely right. republicans will control the senate today if the tea party wasn't wreaking havoc with it. i predict if they get mitch mcconnell to shut down the government, to protect the right flank so he's not vulnerable in the primary, he'll lose the general election because centrist voters who decide elections in most states are going to vote against him. they don't reward people like that because that's not leadership. >> mitt romney was our nominee, mitt romney was our nominee and look at what the results were there.

>> he couldn't win the general election. so far to the right on immigration and all the policies that frankly the american people have rejected time and again that he couldn't win the general election. if mitt romney had been the nominee, he was terrifying democrats, but that's not the guy who showed up. it was a caricature. >> john brabender, i want to say it correctly. great to have you on the show. you're a good guy. here's the question, prediction. you're the expert on your side. what's more likely, the republican nominee of 2016 to be like ted cruz or rand paul or someone like them, or someone like mitt romney? who is more likely to be the nominee? >> just for the sake of winning the election, i hope it's not someone just like mitt romney. i think it will be someone coming from a more conservative wing of the party, someone who does play well to social conservatives and also someone who can talk to blue-collar and hard working families which the republican party has not done a good job of doing and mitt romney did not do a good job doing.

>> could be santorum. >> i'm happy to go with that too. >> what do you think, mr. steve mcmahon, democrat? do you think -- i'm going to predict at the end of the year, it's one of those times like 1964, 1980, 1972 on the democrats side. or 2008 on the democrats side. after years of being practical and manipulative, parties actually show their souls and say this is what we believe. i think the next time that we have a presidential election, which is 2016, the republican party will be the conservative party. i think very conservative party. i think and it will stop playing games. they have been trying to run bob dole, and w. when he spent all that money, and a guy like mccain they didn't believe in. they didn't believe in these guys. they certainly didn't believe in mitt romney. i think they're going to run a true believer next time. what do you think, looking across the aisle? >> i hope they run a true believer. i hope ted cruz will be nominated because the votes

obama got last time will be the starting point if he's nominated. >> let me tell you why it's not ted cruz because occasionally, you have to smile once in a while. not all the time. you have to occasionally crack a smile. he doesn't do that. john brabender, it's great to have you on. and steve mcmahon. thank you. i think we're getting to the point where all agree. coming up, what patriots these republicans are. they're grateful that president obama canceled his summit with vladimir putin, not because they think it's good for the country but because they get to call it a foreign policy failure, just like they called getting along with putin timid. this president can't win on that side. also, president obama goes on leno last night, and who comes up? hillary. reince priebus wants to take on cnn and nbc, the right wing is ready to take on someone. it's always hillary. all roads lead to hillary. republicans seem to be terrified of her. they keep going after her. and looking for a leafy 16-room mansion in downtown washington, d.c. with lots of green and easy access to the subway? we know how much the white house

might go for if it were up for sale. if it was on the block. finally, let me finish tonight with my personal prediction on whom the republicans will run for president in 2016. i just told you. i'm going to tell you more. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ♪ [ male announcer ] you wait all year for summer. ♪ this summer was definitely worth the wait. ♪ summer's best event from cadillac. let summer try and pass you by. lease this all-new cadillac ats for around $299 per month or purchase for 0% apr for 60 months. come in now for the best offers of the model year.

take a look at this. that's the wrecking crew demolishing the house of cleveland kidnapper ariel castro. by the way, he's a murderer, too. he pled guilty of holding those three women for eight years, keeping them in chains and sexually abusing them. this morning, that house of horrors was knocked down in 90 minutes. it could be redeveloped as a community park or garden. we'll be right back.

there have been times where they slipped back in the cold war thinking and a cold war mentality. what i consistently say to them and what i say to president putin is, that's the past, and

we've got to think about the future, and there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to cooperate more effectively than we do. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, president obama on "leno." today the white house announced hfs canceling a planned one-on-one meeting with vladimir putin. next month on the sidelines of the g-20 meeting. the white house cited lack of progress between the u.s. and former soviet union on issues ranging from missile defense to global security. but hanging over everything is the nsa leaker edward snowden who's in russia right now on a visa. who jay carney said is also a factor in the fighter. republican leaders wasted little time sounding almost gleeful about this. according to a spokesperson for john boehner, the president's signature foreign policy accomplishment from the first term, a reset with russia, has just collapsed. for boehner, this is just another opportunity to attack the president. which is a job requirement of a republican speaker. other republicans like john mccain who know what they're talking about said they agreed with the president's decision

but suggested going even further in cooling our relationship with moscow. steve kornacki is host of "up with steve kornacki." generally or up with you. anyway, it's on weekend mornings and doing great, and john is a great historian, analyst, and author of a great book "the center holds" about the 2012 election. let's try, steve and then john. it seems to me, you whack him if he goes right, whack him if he goes left if he's a republican. boehner says we failed to make friends with vladimir putin. look at him. you can't make friends with that guy. he wants to be daniel craig in the action movies, but he's a ferocious guy who is probably a kgb guy to his soul. >> you could look at the reactions from the right, put them in two categories. boehner falls into the category of this is just an extension of what the republican playbook of politics -- >> by the way, where is he

golfing? his spokesman trashes the president of the united states on a global issue. where is boehner? >> maybe he wants to keep distance. this is a little bit of red meat for the base but he's not officially saying it himself. but we have seen the story on the domestic front a lot, like if obama is for it, we're against it, and we're going to work backwards and find what principle justifies our opposition to this. >> let's go back to the world of common sense. americans are incredibly rational, except maybe some tea party people and far left. most people are rational. they see putin, look him in the face, and say this guy is not a good guy. he's got thumb screws in the basement somewhere. you don't know what he's doing with the kgb. what's left of it. of course we're having a problem with him. he's for syria, we're not. he doesn't want to help us with iran. we're at a war with iran. -- we're trying to avoid war with iran. name an issue. he's got snowden with a visa. of course we're a little ticked at him. what's new? we should be ticked with him. >> to go ahead with this summit after the snowden episode, they would have just bickered with each other, nothing would have been accomplished, and the

united states had to indicate to him that we're mad at him. we're mad at him, not just because he rides around without his shirt on on a horse. we're mad at him -- >> john, you're being kind. remember the last time they met. the president tried to do ice breaking. loosen him up, he made fun of the president for trying to get along with him. >> yeah, and he's a bad guy in a lot of ways. that doesn't mean we don't want to have relations with him. what bothers me about the republicans, you know, piling on obama on this issue is they're suggesting that the last five years of u.s.-russian relations have been a failure when the only reason the sanctions against iran are in place in the first place is because of this reset policy that boehner is now saying is a failure. it wasn't a failure. it gave us those sanctions. and those sanctions have now helped lead to a more moderate regime in iran.

>> this is strong territory for me. the battle that never ends with the neocons. here's an interview with bill kristol who only seems to emerge vol canically like now when we have forgotten the iraq war. here's what he said about the president being stubborn. this is like gene kirkpatrick. here he goes. >> that was the case study of the reset, and they have just doubled down on it so many times. they never wanted to admit it was wrong. there was a moment two years ago where even i would have said i never really liked the reset with russia. it was too trust worthy of putin. but i could see if you're a new administration, you would try it. we didn't pay that much of a price the first couple years. but now reality has hit. could we please adjust to reality? they're so obstinate on that,

have been, that they have made it worse. >> i said ted cruz never smiles. he smiles when he's talking about war. what is it about kristol. he's such a neocon all the way. he loves this stuff. >> this is the second category of conservative response. you have the cheap political point o scoring you could look at boehner and say but think back a decade. >> what do they want, the cold war back? >> basically. this is a very hawkish wing when george w. bush a decade ago said he looked into putin's eye and saw a good soul, they didn't believe it then. >> do they miss their teddy bear? >> this is an opportunity to take it farther. >> here's more guys, jump in here john. rick santorum, jim demint, my god, jim demint, and john bolton, who can't wait to get back in power, talking about the global terrorist alert as an excuse to hit the president. they said he's being weak because he put us on watch. let's watch him. >> i think it's really a consequence of the policies of this administration. if you look at benghazi and what happened, we haven't seen anything from this administration really go after the people who were responsible or the network behind it. and i'm sure if you're looking at it from a terrorist perspective, you say, well,

here's a administration that's pulling back, that's timid. >> our attempt to placate parts of the world, reset, whether it's russia or somewhere else, are clearly not working, and the perception of weakness in this administration is encouraging this kind of behavior. >> the weakness we have displayed around the world, particularly after the september 11th, 2012, killing of our ambassador in benghazi, without any retaliation, nearly 11 months later, so the administration's world view has been in effect completely rejected. and we're seeing the consequences of operating under the illusions that he is operated under. >> i love how they say that weakness. you know, they've got their talking points. >> timidity. >> they all use the same words. who's writing those talking points? >> the king of the neocons said we need a muscular foreign policy.

>> the last time they did this, when romney called him an appeaser, obama came out and said tell that to osama bin laden and the 15 leaders of al qaeda i've taken off the field. the notion that this guy is somehow appeasing our enemies is so preposterous. >> do you think they have polled on this, the neocons, they figure after the embarrassment of iraq, a war they wanted to fight. they wanted to fight the war. george w. wanted to fight it, and the vice president wanted to fight it. they all wanted to fight it. okay. they decided that we have sort of forgotten that, and now they're coming back. bolton is back, kristol is back. do you think -- do the think it's time for more rousing? when they say retaliation, their idea of retaliation after 9/11, steve, was going into iraq. retaliation. what does that mean? >> i have never gotten the impression that their world views were radically altered by what happened in the last decade, after the invasion of iraq. i don't think the world view was changed. i think they sense an opportunity within the republican party, the argument in the republican party over

foreign policy. whenever they see an opportunity to connect their agenda to opposition to obama, that gives them opportunity to clear out -- >> clear out rand paul and ted cruz. >> that's who they have the problem with. rand paul said snowden was a hero. instead of attacking obama, they should go after rand paul. >> john bolton is never going to be secretary of state under rand paul. >> they're never going to nominate rand paul. >> you're too rational. >> they'll walk out of the convention before they nominate rand paul. >> watch the end of the show. >> i will. >> thank you. steve kornacki and john. we're about to have a fight on this issue. he may be right. i don't think so. up next, just when you think it couldn't happen, anthony weiner hits another new low. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

back to "hardball." now for the side show. anthony weiner was at a mayor forum last night hosted by the aarp and used some choice words. the event was a chance for candidates to court new york's senior citizen community. that didn't stop weiner from calling one republican rival grandpa. he cast his insult before the debate in a heated exchange with 69-year-old george mcdonald. new york one caught it all on camera. >> i heard what you said. >> really? what's going to happen if i do? >> are you mad? >> i am. >> what are you going to do, grandpa? >> grandpa. smart move there. the aarp called weiner's remark unfortunate. next, president obama answered questions about his u.s. housing market today in a

live streaming q & a hosted by zillow.com. while he was answering questions from home buyers, the event brought a question to one listing in particular, the president's own. zillow has a page for the white house. 16 bedroom mansion in a leafy area, over 16,000 square feet on 18 acres in a great washington neighborhood. amenities include a doorman, elevator, pool. the price, they crunched the numbers and estimated if the white house were on the market, it would be worth $319 million. i think that's a steal. next up, jay leno pressed president obama last night about his on again/off began relationship with former presidential opponent senator john mccain. >> let me ask you about something i'm seeing. is it me or do i see kind of a bromance with you and john mccain? i remember you had that lovers quarrel for a while, and now you're all best friends.

>> that's how -- >> what happened? >> that's how a classic romantic comedy goes, right? you know, initially you're not getting along, and then you keep on bumping into each other. >> a student of the movies there. romantic comedy. imagine that. movie poster, barack obama and john mccain, there it is, starring in a bromantic comedy about two washington insiders who just can't get enough of each other. finally, last night stephen colbert performed this summer's hit song "get lucky" and guess who made a guest appearance? henry kissinger. take a look. ♪ ♪ i'm up all night to get some ♪ i'm up all night to get lucky ♪ >> security. >> security.

anyway, up next, hillary, hillary, hillary. president obama's praising her, and the republicans are terrified of her. they should be. you're watching "hardball," the place for politics.

we had a great time. she had that post-administration glow. >> yeah. >> you know, when folks leave the white house. like two weeks later, they look great. i could not have more respect for her. she was a great secretary of state. very, very proud of the work she did. >> did you notice her measuring the drapes? anything like that? >> keep in mind, she's been there before. she doesn't have to measure. >> well, welcome back to "hardball." even jay leno asked the president about hillary clinton, and the republicans' reaction to the planned miniseries on hillary clinton and the cnn documentary about the former secretary of state has put her squarely back in the headlines. they concede that the rnc chair has a point in his complaints to the networks with the headline, reince is right.

david brockus of "media matters" wrote nbc and cnn heads are calling for the hillary clinton projects to be scrapped. his concern is how the networks would handle right-wing criticism. he said, quote, how will your network respond to the right wing noise machine? david bosse president of citizens united whose movie about hillary clinton in the 2008 cycle became the source of a supreme court case has helpfully offered his movie as a counterweight to the upcoming hillary productions. writing if you would like more information about our films, do not hesitate to contact us. hillary clinton and republicans free throw fear of her in 2016 have been dominating the latest political discussion. howard is a director of the "huffington post" media group, and cynthia tucker. visiting professor of journalism

at the university of georgia and a pulitzer prize winning columnist. thank you to you both. i want to start with cynthia. back when we would watch johnny carson in his day to find out where the country was. if carson was with you, you were okay. if he turned against you, with his snappy humor, even sharp humor, you were dead. when carson left, it was worse than cronkite leaving you. in this case, he had the in this case he had the audience nailed when he said the nice things about hillary's service as secretary of state. automatic applause line, no question about it. isn't that something the republicans have to deal with as they begin to turn their guns on her? that she has this accepted success at state? and if they have that to run against, how do they beat her? >> that's why they're starting to try to beat up on her now, chris. because they understand that they don't have a single possible candidate who has either hillary's experience or

her stature. >> yeah. >> you know, it is certainly early. we don't even know if she's going to run, but the polls show her currently besting the best that they have to offer. she's running better than chris christie. she's running better than rand paul. and the others fall off after that. and so -- but they have been worried about hillary clinton since 2008. they thought she was going to be the nominee then. that was before her very successful run as secretary of state. as you mentioned, they were aiming, you know, a poisonous movie at her even then. >> i know. >> so they have feared a run by hillary clinton for a long time. >> you know what i think is really bugging them? they know the only way to beat hillary is to run a moderate, like christie, and they're darned determined not to do that.

now they face the awful conundrum, we don't want her to beat us. but we can't beat her with a right wing guy so we're screwed. and they hate that. but now they're thinking the only way to beat her is to run a guy like christie, and they don't want to beat her with a guy who can beat her. they want to beat her with a guy who can't beat, which is nonsense, that's the problem. >> i think it is, also, they would like to raise money off the specter of hillary. i think that's part of -- part of that's what's going on. i think president obama still scares them, but after all, he can't run again. washington's tied up and in gridlock. the president, it's a little hard to get people as worked up and as scared, perhaps, as they were a few years ago, but hillary scares the heck out of them, so they want to raise her profile at a time that hillary really doesn't want to do so. >> yes. >> they're trying to draw her in and draw her down. and the clintons have a great sense of timing. they know this is a four-year campaign. this is way too early for hillary to be this

controversial, this exposed. she wants to go around the country, give a lot of speeches, make a lot of money without too much spotlight and wait for the right time and work on building her base by helping other people get elected in the states between now and 2014. >> so smart. the animated attack on hillary against the unanimated hillary because she's staying out of the spotlight for a good reason. you can't run for three years. anyway, rnc chair reince priebus, a favorite of this show, says he doesn't expect nbc or cnn to back down on their planned productions of hillary programs. because of that he now vows to exclude them from republican presidential debates. here's reince. >> i expect them to move forward, and i expect us to cut them out. so i know my guess is this is exactly what is going to happen. they will produce the films, and we will cut them out. >> i guess that was on skype. anyway, it reminds me of the joker in batman. he was talking to us from skype there. my question is why is reince

priebus picking a fight over a hillary clinton movie? a movie? >> well, you know, howard talked about the fact that it's a great way for them to raise money at a time when republicans don't have anything to be excited about. and so i think it's true that their anger at hillary is a good fund-raising tool. but chris, let's remember, republican leaders have been looking for a way to get out of primary debates for some time now. >> yeah, because -- >> because the primary debates were not a good thing for them the last time around. >> because? >> it gave them -- their crazies way too much exposure. >> yeah. >> and it didn't help mitt romney much either. he was their eventual nominee, but it was in one of those debates that he made his unfortunate remark about self-deportation. and that stuck with him throughout the general election. and so one of the things they've talked about in their analyses and postmortems how to clean up

their act for 2016, is maybe they need to have fewer debates. and so they're looking for a way to minimize the exposure that the republican crazies have during the primaries. >> they don't want to give another highway to the clown car. anyway, thank you howard and cynthia. we'll be back after this. this is "hardball," the place for politics. people join angie's list for all kinds of reasons. i go to angie's list to gauge whether or not the projects will be done in a timely fashion and within budget. angie's list members can tell you which provider is the best in town. you'll find reviews on everything from home repair to healthcare. now that we're expecting, i like the fact i can go onto angie's list and look for pediatricians. the service providers that i've found on angie's list actually have blown me away. find out why more than two million members count on angie's list. angie's list -- reviews you can trust.

two more women have come forward accusing san diego mayor bob filner of sexual harassment. that brings the total number of accusers to 13. the latest women to come forward with both military veterans and say they were subjected to unwanted sexual advances while he was in congress. this week, he entered a behavior counseling clinic for two weeks of what has been described as intensive therapy. "hardball" back after this.

you said in the rose garden, the day after the attack, it was an act of terror. it was not a spontaneous demonstration. is that what you're saying? >> please proceed, governor. >> i want to make sure we get that for the record because it took the president 14 days before he called the attack in benghazi an act of terror.

>> get the transcript. >> he did in fact, sir. let me call it an act of terror. he did call it an act of terror. >> wow. we're back. that was president obama and mitt romney colliding in an exchange over benghazi in the october 16th second presidential debate. the washington post dean of political reporters is out with his new book about that campaign. called "collision 2012, obama versus romney and the future of elections in america." the pendulum is swinging in the republican party now. as the party moves hard right, will they really try another establishment time like romney or dole or mccain or christie or jeb bush? or will the party go for one of its tea party heroes like rand paul? here with me now is the author of the great book "collision 2016." dan, let's talk about what you call the subterranean campaign of 2012 and what it offers us in the future. >> we think of the campaign as

the campaign we all cover all the time. everything we talk about, every utterance, every gaffe, every debate, every movement. and that's part of politics and in many ways the interesting and enjoyable part of politics, but it's not necessarily the decisive part of politics. there are important and powerful underlying forces that effect every campaign. in 2012, one was the economy. would it be just good enough to allow president obama to win re-election or bad enough to deny re-election. another was voter anger. which direction would it go? a third was the deep red/blue divide and how that shaped attitudes beyond what other people might say. and lastly, the shifting demographics in this country, which have moved against the republican party over a number of years and which they realized in a more significant way when mitt romney got only 27% of the hispanic vote last year.

they have a problem on their hands on that front and they have to figure out how to deal with it. >> are they in a "who's turn is it" mood like they have been in the past? it was reagan's turn and then george, sr.'s turn and then george jr.'s turn and then mccain's turn and then romney's turn. are they in a "who's turn is it" mood? or are they into something more revolutionary this time? based upon selection. >> it doesn't seem like they're in a who's turn is it? because if you look at the people who ran in 2012 and who may run again, rick perry governor of texas, rick santorum, the former pennsylvania senator. the truth is very few people are talking about them as likely nominees or even front runners at the start of this. the party at this point is looking at a very wide open contest for the republican nomination in 2016. there are a lot of people thinking about running. there are a lot of potentially attractive candidates to republican voters. and i think we're going to see a pretty big and robust debate among these people and part of that will be what's the intersection the party should take. and which they realized in a more significant way when mitt

romney got only 27% of the >> the establishment wing, and that's why it's the establishment wing of both parties. democrat and republican tends to win nominations. they have the dukakises, the clintons, they have the big shots behind. do you think the establishment wing of the republican party can get one more election victory? can they win again after all these people like dole and mccain and the bushes. can they win it again against the right? the right hasn't won since reagan really. >> the right has not won since then is the fairway to put it. the establishment wing does somehow manage to prevail and in part because insurgent wing or the very conservative wing or however you want to describe it, often becomes so far to the right in these contests that republican voters as a whole conclude they're probably not electable. governor romney was out this week, talking about the importance of getting behind candidates who can win. he basically said there will only be one or two people in the campaign in 2016 who can do that, and he said, get behind those candidates. we're likely to see a more

significant debate because conservatives don't believe they've had the opportunity to fairly present their ideas to the country. >> how about the situation where the party knows they can't win. when they look at hillary as insurmountable, would they just go to their base and put someone in? >> i think the choice for the republican party in the near term, do they decide they're a congressionally based party, their power will reside by controlling the house of representatives or do they seek to become a national party capable of winning a presidential election? and i don't think we know the answer as to where the party as a whole decides they want to go on that. >> and the leading indicator will be the vote on immigration? >> that will be one indicator. very likely, many of the people

who seek the nomination in 2016 are on the side of some kind of path to legalization or citizenship, there will be some who seek the nomination who are against that, but a number have already come out in favor of that, whether it's marco rubio or paul ryan, scott walker, there are a number of republicans who may run, who are already on record in favor of that. what happens in the house of representatives we really don't know. >> let's take a look at a preview here, it may be a decisive battle coming up in the primary. look at this recent spat between chris christie and rand paul from kentucky. the libertarian. this is two wings of the party here in action. let's watch. >> it's really sad and cheap that he would use the cloak of 9/11 victims and say, i'm the only one who cares about these victims. hogwash. if he cared about protecting this country. maybe he wouldn't be in this gimme gimme gimme all the money you have in walk or don't have. >> if senator paul wants to start looking at where he's

going to cut spending to afford defense. maybe he should look at the pork barrel spending at 1.51 for every dollar. and not look at new jersey where we get 61 cents for every dollar. >> i know you don't make predictions what are we looking at here, something that's the future not the rearview mirror here? >> we're looking at two people who have their eye on 2016. i think when you look at each of those two men, one of the things they share in common is they both have some convincing to do to a part of the republican party. there are some of the conservatives that are wary about some of the positions that rand paul has. he's a favorite of the tea party on some fiscal issues, but on foreign policy issues, he's not in the mainstream. >> he's where i'm at on farm policy. >> it's a big book. collision, 2012. i like it when dan goes to the future. maybe some predictions in there. we'll be right back.

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let me finish tonight with this, i've been offering a prediction of late. i believe the republican party is going to go hard right in 2016. here's the thinking, which works equally well for the democrats. parties as you've noticed face a conflict every four years, should they run someone who represents their strongest passions right or left, or do they run someone who appeals to the middle? most of the time they head to the middle and this is what republicans did most successfully in 1952, when after 20 years after fdr and harry truman, they ran the general who received the nazi surrender and

they won. in 1956, they stuck to the middle then with richard nixon. in '64, the right said it was their turn and blew the roof off the cow palace, mocking republican moderates. then getting killed with barry goldwater running against lyndon johnson. the democrats ran moderates in 60, 64, 68, then went wild in 72 the democrats got killed. the party bases get pushed aside for several elections and finally build up steam. the opponents in the iraq war, i believe the republican base will do the same in 2016, they put up with george bush, put up with bob dole, were deeply disappointed by george w. and last year mitt romney. they're going to come loaded for bear for the race for 2016. i predict the hard right is

going to take over the republican party in 2016. and the nomination is going to rand paul. you watch. that's hardball for now. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. good evening from washington, d.c., i'm ezra klein in for the terrific chris hayes, tonight on all in, the cold war may be over, but it doesn't feel like it's all that over. it's getting chilly actually. from the edward snowden situation to russia's treatment of gays and lesbians, u.s./russia relationship is on the rocks. we're learning about another terror plot that was foiled. what do new york city and detroit have in common? bankruptcy.