the most of your cashflow. i'm nelson gutierrez of strictly bicycles and my money works as hard as i do. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. immigration reform has a new best friend, the tea party. wait, what? it is town hall season for meetings of congress. it's been the loud and aggressive demands by tea party to defund obama care even if that means shutting down federal government. you've probably seen the heated debates, including robert pittenger. this is the town hall story we

already know about, events like that. a much different town hall story may be taking place, one that hasn't gotten much attention. how immigration reform is playing back home. the comprehensive overhaul package providing citizens after establishing strict new border control passed senate with a bipartisan majority in june. it looks like it would have the votes to pass the house, but only if republican leadership lets it come to a vote, which so far has been completely out of the question. a big reason for that, fear among republicans that letting it pass will trigger an angry back lash from the conservative base which gets to that other story it's developing from the town halls. so far at least, the loud tea party protests have been about obama care funding. they have not been about immigration. this comes even as several republican members of congress use town hall meetings this week to soften their opposition to comprehensive reform. on monday aaron shock of illinois embraced a path to citizenship.

>> i think there needs to be a secure border and i think when that happens and people pay back taxes and they haven't committed any violations of law, been here on a probationary period, they can go to citizenship and go to the back of the line. >> on wednesday it was republican dave reichert's term. >> i want to get to the point where they've got to pay a fine, there's some penalties that they have to go through, there's some steps they have to go there. >> kevin mccarthy, number three republican in the house, told a quefb ty group in his district that people who come here illegally should be able to work toward legal status and dreamers should be able to get citizenship. when these republicans said these things this week, they were not bombarded with cries of betrayal from conservative activists. congress will be in session for

weeks to come but loud, organized opposition to immigration reform is so far mostly missing from town hall season. byron york observed on monday, quote, if august goes quietly on the immigration front, some republican lawmakers may return to washington with the sense that voters back home don't really mind that immigration reform goes forward. and then it will. this is the other major town hall story to watch. the flipside of the mounting pressure on republicans to force a shutdown over obama care. could it be that republicans will turn to d.c. next month intent on picking a fight on health care but also emboldened to let real immigration through the house and to the law. i want to bring in raul reyes, former -- republican congressman of virginia, now consultant for deloit and touch. a politics writer at national

journal. thanks for joining us. you heard about shutting down obama care, what you think of with obama care, that noise you were hearing on the right against immigration, it seems at this moint it's being directed toward obama care. i'm wondering, does that leave an opening for republican congressmen to say, you know, maybe the price won't be that stiff if we go forward with this. >> you have immigration reform advocates funded and focused on certain congressmen, a handful of 20 or so, who they're targeting. you're not seeing that on the other end as far as people who

are opposed to immigration reform. can you take paul ryan, mark zuckerberg is sporting him and groups opposed to immigration reform are spending half that amount. really there's a passion gap and also a money gap. people aren't as opposed to immigration reform as they are to obama care. >> brian, has it surprised you? the consensus coming a few weeks is that immigration reform is dead. do you think something might be happening? >> i'm less optimistic. two things, one, dead gap, obama care, enrollment starts in october and exchanges launch in january. if they're going to do anything about it, now is the moment, the last possible opportunity they have. that's why health care has swarmed town halls instead of

immigration reform. the other is that immigration reform, the messaging from conservative leads, republicans to the base, are mixed. some are for it, some are against it but no deadline. i think if they go back to washington and have this sense because there was no outrage at town halls that means they can go ahead and pass the senate bill or something similar. that's when you'll start seeing maybe not in town halls because there won't be another reese but in phone calls, letters, talk radio, on cable tv, that the opposition will really kind of start getting itself up. >> tom davis, a former member of congress here, i wonder about the psychological impact on a member of congress of these town hall meetings. when as a member of congress you're faced with a vote, how does your experience in dealing with crowds at a town hall meeting weigh on your decision? if you had a meeting and there were 100 people -- 100

conservative republicans in your case, how would that affect you verse phone calls, versus pressure from your colleagues, how do town halls weigh in. >> they way in. if you have a town hall, you have to be prepared for it. a lot of members aren't doing town halls. they've learned the lesson from what happened in the last congress when you brit citizens out. they're doing tele town halls. my gut is they want to do a kids act, a modified dream act, that will allow a path to citizenship for people who are brought here, their parent bring them in. it won't be anything like the senate bill. there are members who say, we don't want this to go to congress because we're afraid we may end up with the senate bill being jammed down it.

it's a difficult dilemma for the leadership because boehner said, i need a majority in my conference support a bill. you need like 117 republicans, not three or four, which is what we're seeing right now. there's a long way to go on this. i think they will find something that can go to conference, whether they can resolve it or not, you made the comment, it's a long way to go at this point. uphill. >> i want to get into, that the logistics of -- the mechanics of trying to pass that. raul, it strikes me, there's a waiting game because the senate passed its bill. immigration reform has shown their cards. hey, this is the package we're good with. we got it through the senate. it's just waiting to see if and when in can be safe enough on the republican side for those conditions tom was talking about to be met. >> i believe a lot of house republicans are going home and testing the water to see how much opposition is out there to immigration reform. whether it's rising or falling, what they are hearing at town

halls. i have to say this time around, compared to 2006-2007, immigration rights coalition are by far much better organized, they have a stronger message, partnered with all sorts of groups, clergy groups and business groups, labor. they have a stronger coalition going into it. for example, representative shock, who you mentioned who changed his mind recently, he was targeted for about six months. not just with letters or e-mails but also the reform proponents pressure different donors and business leaders to message him in support of reform. so, their efforts are much more sophisticated than they were before. they're not ready to give up either. it remains to be seen. i think many people in the pro reform camp regard this period right now, it's not the end game, more like halftime. >> we talked about convincing house republicans basically it's safe to vote for this or to

allow this to come up for a vote. it's the fear of the primary challenge, you don't want to be considered a betrayer to the cause. we live in the area when christine o'donnell can beat mike cassel. what are the forces in the republican universe? what forces counter that right now? >> business forces are strongly for this legislation. they are your financial forces. they fund a lot of these campaigns. reichert's from a more urbanized district. urban areas this isn't the big problem as it is in rural districts. the house is rural and very southern now. >> these are not districts with very diverse populations. >> they're not they pay no price for voting against immigration reform. in fact, they probably get rewarded for it. you have to make the sale there and get some of those people to come on board. >> how does that look? you are covering capitol hill. how does it look when you look at the republican conference, do you have a sense of the

breakdown? how many are just absolutely opposed and will never vote for this? how many are in play? do we have a sense of that at all? >> i don't have a sense because there's too many to query in that way but there's a large group of republican congressmen who don't want anything to happen. who don't even want to go to conference. who will vote against immigration bills, piecemeal bills they support in principle because they don't want to go to conference. the other thing, to touch on something that tom said, is that we've only seen about three congressmen at their town halls come out and support path way for citizenship and none is a surprise. reichert, shock in illinois, right after the election he had an interview in a paper in chicago saying, we need to respond to this electionly doing immigration reform. daniel webster, from florida, a lot of latinos in his district. none of these people it's not a real surprise they're coming out and supporting it.

i think next week we'll see many, many more republican congressman at town halls coming out saying they support this, you might see the ground move under their feet a little bit but it's difficult to say at this time. >> 80% of republicans represent districts that are 20% or less hispani hispanics. to tom's point, the incentive for them to switch on immigration reform is not that high. congressman gutierrez said the other day he believes he has 40 or 50 republican votes in favor of immigration reform. 40 to 50 is not majority of the republican conference. we know speaker boehner is not going to bring anything to the floor. 20 more out there who could maybe change their mind but that's not a ground swell so we're not see anything. >> i think the number is all but nine republicans in the house come from a district mitt romney carried. i want to pick this after. lease suppose republicans come back from break, immigration reform is on the table, i want

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at his press conference on friday president obama talked about what he sees as the path forward when congress comes back after the break. this is what he said. >> so, up, what i see right now is a strong bipartisan vote coming out of the senate. i think that the speaker and others have said they need to do something. and i'd urge when they get back to do something. put forward a bill that has an opportunity to actually pass. it may not be precisely what's in the senate bill. my presence would be for them to go ahead and call the senate bill. if they have additional ideas, i think the senate's happy to

consider them. >> let's talk about the path way to citizenship, the pathway to get something through congress. the simplest way is you take a bill, put it on the floor, they pass it, it's done. that's not going to happen. we've been talking about this, the conference committee. if the house passes something different or if the house passes a series of broken up bills, the piecemeal approach, one deals with border security, one deals with kids or something, a series goes through the house that could be merged with the senate in the conference and then each of the -- the packages would have to get a vote in the senate, a vote in the house and maybe it could work that way. brian, could you walk us through what's involved in this process? sort of practically speaking what the pitfalls are of relying on that. >> the single biggest pitfall is you have certain republicans who don't want to get to congress. when you break up the bill, you have some consensus issues. there's a question of whether

democrats would vote for a dream act just now under the circumstances because they want to get to full pathway to citizenship. certain ro visa programs. when republicans try to pass border security alone bill, democrats won't be there for them. they're just not going to help republicans pass that on their own. if you have 15, 20, 25 republicans who say i support this in principle but i don't want to go to conference, they'll kill individual elements, so you'll have this riddled with hole series of bills that you kind of cobble together when you go to conference. but then you'll have problems on the flipside of that because house republicans when it comes out of congress and those holes are filled in with the democratic bill in the senate, they'll say, no, this is a swindle. this is not what we signed up for. >> how little can the house do and still go to conference? like, could you go to conference committee without addressing any kind -- without addressing the

citizenship question and then have the citizenship question filled in in conference and have it go back to the house that way? i'm saying, can the house just do border security or something and that goes into the conference committee and comes out as citizenship? that possible? >> it might be possible but not going to get the votes when it comes back. two risks with democrats going to conference. if three of the house republicans send something to conference which is top-heavy on border security and fails in conference because democrats don't like, it then the republicans can pin the failure of reform and say, well, it was both of us, not just us. democrats didn't like it either. there's that rick for them. the other risk, something being watched closely in the immigrant community among many latino advocacy groups, the senate bill we have s-44, has already pitched very far to the right. to the absolute limit with the border surge and a long pathway to citizenship, as far right you

could go. if that were to merge with something coming out of the house, potentially it could go further to the right because that's where they're coming from, which would make it possibly unacceptable to democrats. >> i want to handle that question in a little bit, about how far democrats and supporters can go to compromise more. >> we don't compromise anymore. it's going to go to the right. you want a bill out of the house, that's the similar. it's a republican house and you have an overwhelming vote in the senate. both sides have to get out of their comfort zone if this thing is going to work. >> what do you think when -- the real stumbling block when it comes to republicans in the house is sit znship. realististly -- >> you will not get citizenship out of the house. many are afraid you'll get it coming out of conference and they don't want to vote on that. majority of the republican conference is not ready to vote for that. some members fear that which is why they don't want it to go to

conference. >> goodlatte would be working on one piece, just for the children, the dreamers. if that's part of the individual package out of the house, i guess the theory is that that in the conference committee could turn into something broad are for citizenship and then -- >> even border could change into something different. you do strong border kroeshlgs conferences change. if you can get a majority of republicans to agree, but you need a majority of the republicans in the house to agree to this. democrats if they're smart will give them some votes to get something out of the house. they have doing that at all. republicans need democratic help to get anything at all to get something out of the house. leaders would like to come forward with what they call the kids act, to take care of those who came here involuntary and give them a path to sith

zenship. that's doable. it's short of what democrats desire at the end of the day, but it moves the process along. unless both sides join hands and take some risks in moving the problem along, nopg happens. >> i want to pick that up after this, and that's the question if it's going to take democratic help what more are democrats willing to come myself on this. ♪ ♪ i've got something for you too. (announcer) fancy feast delights with cheddar. a meal that is sure to delight your cheese lover. now available in the classic form she loves. fancy feast. the best ingredient is love. cashback concierge, here. what is a cashback concierge? well there's lots of ways you can get cash back. i'm here to help you get the most out of your cash rewards. it's personalized, and it's free. i want that.

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seize the summer with up to 50% off hotels at travelocity. still running in the morning? yeah. getting your vegetables every day? when i can. [ bop ] [ male announcer ] could've had a v8. two full servings of vegetables for only 50 delicious calories. i want to pick up this question of what more could democrats and immigration reform supporters be willing to compromise. because where it stands to get through the senate, you had expensive border security surge that went through there, pathway to citizenship filled with all sorts of penalties and fines and benchmarks that had to be met along the way. it's a cumbersome process. what more do you think democrats would be willing to say, we'll also give you this, we'll also give you that? >> on border security there's a

measure in the house that's already passed out of committee unanimously. probably going to be one of the first pieces of this immigration reform legislation puzzle coming out of the house going to the floor. and you're seeing some progressive and liberal democrats who prefer that to what was passed in the senate. that's an interesting thing to keep an eye on. the question is whether they would vote in favor of that without some insurance, if there is going to be a pathway or some sort of legalization method put on the floor. that's the big question. i think that measure in particular shows there's some interesting cross-sections taking place in the house. and also on the dream act, will they vote for that without also knowing, okay, are we going to vote on a 15-year pathway? that's been floated in the house, instead of senate it's 13 year. in the house it would be 15 years. what's two years, i guess, if you at least get to cast a vote and -- >> it's conference. >> right. >> so, what is the -- brian, if

this thing -- the conventional wisdom we're saying is immigration reform is fading out, if we get a few months down the line and it looks dead and like all the avenues have been exhausted is there a sense democrats would say if we can get the dream act, just get that, we'd be for it? >> i don't know. i don't think they're tolg show their cards on that question yet. i think if republican leadership tried to team up just to get to conference with a kind of understanding that things would get pulled back toward the senate direction they my provide some votes for that but we're not at that point yet. i think if it turns out you can't get that understanding and there's no conference and we get into december, january, then there are steps the democratic leadership could take in the house, even though they're in the minority to force republicans to put the senate bill on the floor for a vote. then it comes down to a question of whether you can get a couple dozen republicans. >> that's the discharge petition. explain that. >> yeah. basically majority leadership

kroeldz the floor of the house with the rare exception of when the minority or anybody, really, introduces a discharge petition to put a piece of legislation on the floor. all they need is 218 signatures on the petition to get there. it doesn't happen very often. it happens even less often for big legislation like immigration reform. but when -- but if it's a choice between republicans in the house being saddled with blame for killing the whole process, you might see -- maybe not enough to get it on the floor but 10, 20 republicans break with the leadership. >> i ask, when has this been used on something big, mccain/feingold in 2002. you talk about the petitions were circulated. >> shamz me. you had the same kind of polarization in the conference at that point. vast majority of our members were against it. you had a handful of members, particularly from urban areas

where there are big newspapers were editorializing on this every week and cast gating these members and they signed the petition and our leadership saw them getting to the 218 total. at that point brought the bill forward on their own terms as opposed if it had gone to this petition, it would have come back on democrats' terms. >> right. do you see, you know, the sort of dynamics of republican house conference than anybody here? could you see there being a couple house republicans who would say in my district or for the sake of the future of my party i want to get this done and put my name on this? >> you said it best when you said there are only a handful of republicans from obama's district. those are the members that would be most likely to sign something like this. >> that would be like nine, which wouldn't get -- >> wouldn't get you there. >> would there be nine more who would say the republican party can't win in 2016, 2020, 2024 if you don't -- >> no, probably doesn't work that strategically.

i mean, maybe. look, you don't know until you try it. the mounting pressure. so, it's certainly to all the democrats will utilize but they want to give republicans a chance to move forward and have an honest discussion. i think both leadership sides want a bill here. it's a question of how they can get here. >> raul, we'll pick it up with you after this. about the cuts of beef that meet our higher kosher standards that only a slow-motion bite can capture all that kosher delight. and when your hot dog's kosher, that's a hot dog you can trust. hebrew national.

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sooner than you'd think. you die from alzheimer's disease. we cure alzheimer's disease. every little click, call or donation adds up to something big. raul, i cut you off but you were going to say? >> we were talking about the procedural mechanisms available, the viability of going forward with the immigration reform bill with the house, maybe along with the senate. when we look at the larger picture, more and more people are aware we have -- polling consistently shows support for immigration reform. the republican leadership wants it. certainly latino voters want it. there's a number of prominent republicans who want it. so, i think the public in this instance, especially right now it's august, not much news

happening, is increasingly becoming affair it's a procedural move to allow speaker boehner to vote on that. there's two big dangers for republicans there. number one, in this period where it's sort of a void, we have people like steve king, with his nutty comments about comparing immigrants to drug -- you know, they're vifilling that void whi is cementing the negative image of the gop and republicans understand how important this issue is to latinos because when i was growing up, the rare occasions when i looked at spannic language tv it was car crashes and news from mexico and central america. when you put on spanish language media now, telemonday douun tel about speaker boehner and eric cantor. there's a great deal at stake.

>> the other thing i want to ask you about is further compromise to get something through. there was an interesting story, i think it was national journal, who said basically a lot of immigration supporters have said, we've come mysepromised a. it's not worth supporting if it gets watered down any more. plan b, the way it was framed, they're reliance on president obama to expand deferred action program. for dreamers, certain children of undocumented immigrants, he suspended deportation. he could basically by executive order, the idea is expand that, expand the scope and it would be a waiting game. okay, we get to 2017, maybe you get a new democratic president, maybe you have a stronger democratic presence in the house, maybe republicans have lost another national election and blaming the latino vote for that, any growing sense that's the path? >> i think it is. the president has alluded to it,

not very much, and i think he's wise, keeping his cards close to his vest but it is something i believe he would consider doing closer -- towards the end of the year if it becomes clear immigration reform isn't going forward from the house. the thing is, he does -- it's a legal gray area. i think part of the reason it's also being delayed he has to explore the legal till ity of s these programs. if you're talking about a much larger population, people who have been here longer, getting into the 11 million of the whole undocumented population, that's something that has to be stud idea, analyzed a bit more. >> that would be -- so the president's role in immigration debate has been -- it's been weird because he's been sidelined a little bit, intentionally so, because the idea of him being engaged, with the sense this is going to polarize them further but when you talk about the idea of maybe it comes to expanding the deferred action program, i look

and say, that's sort of -- that would be a second term move. that's a president who wouldn't have to face voters again. do you see that on the horizon at all? >> i think to raul's point, he's keeping his cards close to the chest. if he reveals that's a possibility or that he's moving in that direction, that takings all the steam out of the push for immigration reform now. his comments on friday at his press conference pushing for the house to do something, he's not going to be going out and talking emphatically about immigration reform. that's probably the worst thing he could do right now. that will inflame the opposition. i think everyone is trying to give the house some room to do something but we'll see what happens a few months out, especially if they have to deal with the debt ceiling, a measure to fund the government, that might take precedence, take focus on immigration reform and then maybe let's revisit plan b. >> this has been an interesting lesson in the power of the bully pulpit. my thanks to nbc latino

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beneful is awarding a $500,000 dog park makeover... in the 2013 dream dog park contest. enter now. president obama became the first american president in decades to cancel a president with a russian leader. white house confirmed on wednesday obama will attend the annual g-20 conference in st. petersburg this month but he will not meet separately with president putin in moscow. obama concluded the sides between them were too great there was no point to sitting down. something he hinted at the nice before the announcement on jay leno's "the tonight show." >> there were times when they slip back into cold war thinking and cold war mentality. what i consistently say to them and what i say to president putin is, that's the past. you know, we've got to think about the future. and there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to cooperate

more effectively than we do. >> tensions between the u.s. and russia escalated at start of this month when russia granted temporary asylum to edward snowden, the former nsa contractor who disclosed secrets about america's surveillance program but other issues divide the two countries as well as president obama noted in his press conference on friday. >> i think the latest episode is just one more in a number of emerging differences we've seen over the last several months around syria, around human rights issues, where, you know, it is probably appropriate for us to take a pause. >> now, secretary of state john kerry and defense secretary chuck hagel did meet with their russian counterparts on friday to discuss the war in syria. russia has supported the regime of bashar al assad and gave them

weapons, and russian's draconian gay laws. last month putin made it illegal for couples anywhere in the world to adopt russian children. weeks before that putin signed laws banning so-called homosexual propaganda and authorizing police to arrest four nationalings of being pro-gay. this has made for tense months between united states and russia and president obama down played the tension but acknowledged their relationship may not be so warm. >> i don't have a bad relationship with putin. when we have conversations they're candid, they're blunt. oftentimes they're constructive. i know the press likes to focus on body language and he has that kind of slouch looking like the

bored kid in the back of the classroom. >> i love, that the slouch like the bored kid. i want to bring in richard, former clinton adviser and now writer for newyosrker.com. rashad robinson, nation's largest african-american online political organization and member of all out lbgt equality, and we have julia, senior editor for new republic magazine and former correspondent for the new yorker and foreign policy magazine. we said in intro, first time in decades an american president has canceled a sitdown with a russian leader. the last time, we dug it out, would have been lbj in 1968, he canceled a meeting after the soviet invasion of shrchec czec.

the conventional wisdom around the decision to cancel the meeting was, it was a pointless exercise. did anything going to come out of this? was there really no point in this meeting? >> i think this was a good decision on obama's part. i want to go back to canceling meeting things. about a year ago there was -- obama didn't go to a summit because it was september, right before the election. before that putin didn't go to a summit with obama. so, they've been kind of canceling, getting drinks together for a while now. as for what they have to talk about, things have been going downhill since the intervention in libya. russians felt duped, especially after gadhafi was killed i think that personally hit putin hard. you had the american obama on

the ground being harassed by kremlin-owned tv channels and it's been snow balling ever since. don't think it's -- you know, when putin and obama get together, it's not like they're working out the nitty gritty, the two of them. a lot of that stuff is worked out beforehand. it's kind of a symbolic acknowledgment on both sides. you'll notice russians aren't angry at this move. they're saying, we recognize we have to recalibrate and we're going to work together. you won't see an angry response. it's acknowledgment on both sides saying, we need on to step back and recalibrate. >> i'm curious about how this is playing in russia. a lot of the conversation here in the united states is about denying putin the prestige that comes with having a meeting with the american leader. is this -- how is this being portrayed by the media in russia? how is this perceived by the public in russia?

putin worried his prestige suffers a little because of this? >> no. look, the way it's being played in russia, it's being downplayed. if you make a stink over it you acknowledge it's a snub or slap in the face. it's like, okay, we'll see each other another time. we'll see each other on the cited lines at the g-20 summit in st. petersburg. how putin feels, it probably makes him respect obama a little more. i think putin has seen obama as a weak president. he can't quite understand when obama tells him, i have congress to deal with. putin will say, i also have a congress. you know, get it through. i can get my stuff through. anyway, so this is -- >> putin didn't have the tea party. >> it probably makes him seem stronger to putin. >> richard, i just wonder, given the moment we reached here in relations between the two countries and leaders, what do

you think it would take to restart this -- have meetings again between obama and putin. what would have to happen? >> the most interesting thing i thought about this, the white house decided it was in their interest to spread out the reasons for canceling the summit. i think the reality is, but for the snowdon episode, the summit would have gone forward. i think it was such a poke in the eye to us and to president obama personally and to the new secretary of state, that they just felt that that was -- that that was -- it was the straw that broke the camel's back. but had the -- had snowden not been granted this one-year citizenship, this one-year status that he's got, and even if he was just still at the airport, i bet president obama would have gone. the other interesting thing about the press conference in the clip you played is how obama talks about his counterpart. i mean, he calls him -- he

didn't say vladimir or go by his official title. he calls him putin. you know, it was like -- >> bored kid slouching in the back of the class. you don't do -- >> it was not very diplomatic. very they're careful the way they talk about him. i don't know if the president was just kind of -- it was friday afternoon, he was kind of on a roll. boy, that is not the way you talk about a leader. >> he's playing to the american press, playing to the american public. >> but how does that -- how do you think putin -- putin will get the transition. he'll hear that. >> that's a dis. you talk about putin like that. he's father of a nation and empire. >> you were saying maybe you think this built a little respect for obama. being talked to -- i want to pick this up, and get into the issue with the olympics and anti-gay laws in russia. ♪ i'm a hard, hard worker and i'm working every day. ♪ ♪ i'm a hard, hard worker and i'm saving all my pay. ♪ small businesses get up earlier and stay later.

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so there wasn't really a lot of loud reaction from republicans to the announcement

this week that the meeting with putin would be canceled but i did notice this. this was john boehner's office was contacted for comment and spokesman said the president's signature foreign policy accomplishment from the first term, the reset has just collapsed. seemed like a little gloating was going on over there. tom, i guess what i wanted to ask you about, there seems to be -- there is a split. we've talked about this in the republican party, increasingly on foreign policy questions, where you've got the win that was dominant in the bush era, the hawkish wing, and the insurgent rand paul noninterventionist side of thing. the more hawkish forces see an opening on the republican side and national debate, if we're not talking to putin anymore, maybe this an-s an opening to act unilaterally on missile defense. i wonder if you have a sense on

where that is. >> our party has been looking for things for years, have found it a little in the wars in the middle east. both parties, by the way, have these divisions within them. these are not along partisan lines. i'm frankly not surprised by boehner's spokesman because it's electioneering. everyone is playing a role in this thing. the president had to cancel that, i think, after the snowden event. it would have looked very weak had he not done that. i think moscow didn't have much choice on snowden. had they given him back to the united states, putin would have looked very weak under the circumstances. the good thing is, talks continue underneath, secretary of state talking to their people. you know, business as usual. >> let's get into the question here that's gotten the most press attention, going to get the most for months ahead until

february and the olympics is the question of the new anti-gay laws in russia. we outlined them at the beginning but i wonder if you could quickly take us through -- what is the impact right now on gays and lesbians in russia? and where did this come from? i think that's the other question people have. >> well, we've seen these laws popping up around the world as more and more visibility happens for lbgt americans and folks in the west. and what we're seeing, particularly in russia, is a law that outlaws what they say is propaganda. that could mean a host of things. it could someone who's not gay or lesbian supporting gay or lesbian people, carrying a rainbow flag, standing up. we've seen people filming documentaries being attacked under these laws in russia. what it particularly does is send a message around the world where exactly russia stand, not

just around lbgt equality but human rights and freedom of assembly. >> where did the move for these laws come from? we think about -- the united states we're used to seeing the gay rights debate inevitable, polls keep moving, the arc of history bend toward justice. but in russia it seems like they're moving in the opposite direction. is that the political class, and maybe religious leaders trying to impose on the masses or does this reflect where culture is -- >> this law we've seen originate from the bottom-up. started out as anti-gay propaganda laws started to the north and then down to moscow which spread it to a federal level. normally this doesn't happen.

a law, the duma passes something, i think this is russia historically as its role with the west. it wants to be part of europe and putin constantly talks about how russia is an important part of europe. on the other hand, after the collapse of the soviet union, there hasn't been much of an ideology to keep the place together. you have the church, just like it's done for the last few hundred years coming in, creating a national idea. that's kind of a very conservative one and traditional one. and you also have this national idea forming as a response to the west. so, we're the unwest. and homosexuality as seen as a import, fashion choice. >> i want to talk more about how it got to this point in russia, what that means to the olympics and what the response should be from the united states from the olympic committee, all that. u can rely on.

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we are talking about how politics in the olympics are meeting right now. when it comes to the question of anti-gay laws in russia and upcoming olympic games next february in sochi and what the spon response from the rest of the world would be we're talking to former congressman davis, and julia yaffe of the new republic magazine. sochi starts in february, and the whole question of what the response to the united states and international community should be to the anti-gay laws in russia. it reminded me -- i'll set up obama's press conference on friday first by playing 33 years ago in january 1980, just after soviet invasion in afghanistan, the summer games that year were scheduled for moscow and the president of the united states was asked what the response should be when it came to the olympics.

this was jimmy carter in january 1980. >> mr. president, assuming the soviets do not pull out of afghanistan any time soon, do you favor the u.s. participating in the moscow olympics? if not, what are the alternatives? >> no, neither i nor the american people would support the sending of an american team to moscow. with soviet invasion troops in afghanistan. i've sent a message to the united states olympic committee spelling out my own position that unless the soviets withdraw their troops within a month from afghanistan, that the olympic games be moved from moscow to an alternate site or multiple sites or postponed or canceled. >> and the united states and a lot of countries around the world boycotted the 1980 summer games in response to the soviet union and the eastern bloc nations in 1984 boycotted the olympics in los angeles. in response to that ted turner

started the goodwill games in 1986 in moscow. international history from the 1980s. president obama was asked the same question, in light of the anti-gay laws in russia, what about the united states and the olympics? this is what he had to say. >> i do not think it's appropriate to boycott the olympics. we have a bunch of americans out there training hard, doing everything they can to succeed. nobody is more offended than me by some of the anti-gay and lesbian legislation you've been seeing in russia. one of the things i'm really looking forward to is maybe some gay and lesbian athletes bringing home the gold, silver or bronze, which would go a long way in rejecting the kind of attitudes that we're seeing there. >> so, rashad, i wonder what you think the appropriate response here is. i've heard the idea of the united states should boycott,

international olympic committee should move games out of russia and move them to vancouver. you have the president basically saying, hey, let's hope gay athletes win medals and show it to russians. what do you think the right response is? >> all out has a petition of over 300,000 people all around the world that is pushing the ioc to really clarify and force russia to clarify its position so not just the athletes but folks from around the world who go to russia are able to be safe and able to be open in who they are. two other points. the history of not just gay rights in this country but around the world, it's been a history of visibility, people being open and counted and enlisted allies. there's no greater international moment than the olympics for people around the world to go there and win their support to the lbgt community, to the russian lbgt russians on the ground. the final point is about sports in general, from jesse owens to

jackie ron son to billie jean king, we have seen sports become a place where we can have deep and honest conversations about who we want to be and being our best selves. hopefully this olympics gives us the opportunity for folks around the world to go there. >> you want the games to continue in sochi, the rest of the world to be there? >> hopefully people will be carrying flags of support and standing up in support of equal rights and human rights. >> we should say -- we asked rush shoo clarifying exactly what is going to happen to any gay athletes or supporters of gay athletes. we've had conflicting reports from the russian sports minister. a week or two ago he said no one is forbidding an athlete with nontraditional sexual orientation from coming to sochi. what exactly does that mean with propaganda? that could mean almost anything.

that created a back lash and sports minister this week said russia has a constitution that guarantees to all citizens rights for the private life and privacy. rest assured that all the athletes and sports organizations should be relaxed. does that relax you hearing from the russian sports minister? >> if anything, it puts people on high alert because have you different people saying different things. they're trying to intentionally keep it a very gray area. listen, you said in the last segments, this is going to be -- this story is just getting started. this is going to be a huge international story. it is probably going to be the biggest international gay rights story ever. i mean, we are at a new -- a lot of this originates in the west. here in the west we are at a new moment in gay rights. the gay rights movement in this country is emboldened. they've been emboldened by a supreme court who earlier this summer said gays and lesbians are entitled to rights here. it's a huge issue for nbc

universal, for this network, a huge issue for anybody else connected to or sponsors of the olympics. there's already a mcdonald's -- mcdonald's is a big sponsor. there's a fake mcdonald's ad going around where they've taken the opening of a mcdonald's ad that says we're happy to be in sochi and spliced into it pictures of these gay russian youths being beaten and abused on the street. videotape that is widely available. you know, this idea that we can have this celebrational -- celebration of the olympics and celebration of our athletes while real russian citizens are being beatened and harassed, i think that, you know, part of -- i agree with what rashad said. i want our athletes to go and compete. i want us and other countries that support gay and lesbian civil rights to show the rest of the world the way to do it, but i also think we have to -- we have to have some focus on what

is actually happening to gay people in russia. they've been beaten and harassed and sometimes killed in an environment which promotes this. the government is promoting this. we also have to listen to them. >> how do you think the russian government is going to play this, then, when it comes to the olympics? do you think they would actually go guard with trying to enforce any of these laws or do you think there would be an effect where they're a little more sensitive to doing anything domestically outside of sochi that attracts international headlines. >> you're seeing the russian government in action. it's not a strategic government. it's knee-jerk action. they passed this law and now they're running up against hosting a national major sporting event and they're like, what do we do with this? the ioc has asked for written clarification both so they're clear on what the law means and how it applies to athletes

competing in sochi and also so they have it written and they could say, you promised this in a written document. the other thing is if homosexuality is seen as a nefarious import from the west and seen as a global gay kabul, trying to wreak moral havoc on russia. the global gay kabol getting uple and trying to boycott the olympics just reinforces russians and russian christian spirit is under attack by the west. like you said, it doesn't really help. the more you press on putin and you threaten to boycott the olympics, this is very personally important project for him, the more he's going to turn inwards and dig his heels in and say, you know what, we were right. look at this, you're trying to pressure us. you're trying to impose your moral values on us. we're going to stick to our guns.

>> well, how -- >> and it doesn't help gay people in russia. >> rashad, how do you break through that, then? when you look at trying to improve lives and help lives of gays in russia, if that's the reality, the outcry is interpreted the way julia said, how do you break that? >> i think it's important we support the activists and the community on the ground, the folks who have been doing this work for years in russia. you know, i have watched these issues play out not just in russia but in -- throughout eastern europe. i went to serbia a number of years ago with the state department to support lchltd bgt activists there as they're working to have their pride. folks have been working for years, the same way people have been working in this country. in parts of this country for decades where it wasn't always safe and where religions onty got in the way of equality. people have to raise their voices, and enlist allies. the olympics will create greater opportunity for that. that's why i think it's so

important that at the same time we're pushing at the ioc, that we're also pushing and supporting the folks on the ground to be able to do the work they need to do. >> one of those -- i would love to. i want to thank richard, rashad robinson and julia of the new republic magazine. we'll have you back. most important election of 2013 has a little bit of everything except maybe a candidate anyone wants to vote for. that's next. [ male announcer ] this is betsy.

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i want to tell you about a basketball game that mercifully no one remembers. championship game in what was then called the transamerica athletic conference.

the t.a.c. the central florida golden knights against the mercer bears. the t.a.c. was a small basketball conference a bunch of schools you've never heard of, they never get on tv, they play in tiny gyms that fit like 500 people. the beautiful thing about college basketball is that it is the most democratic with a small "d," big time sports. more than 300 teams play it and every single one of them from mighty duke and kentucky to no-names like texas pan america and southern utah, you they have the same opportunity. you win the conference, you play the ncaa tournament. you win the ncaa and claim national title. every time, no matter how big or small has the same theoretical chance to win it all. what happened in march 1986, the championship game of the tvment t.a.c. conference tournament. the winner would get the automatic bid to the ncaa tournament. espn was there.

the only problem, neither team playing had any business being there. central florida's record was a feeble 10 wins, 18 losses. finished near the bottom of the regular season stanldings. mercy, their opponent finished just a game ahead of central florida in the standings. ordinarily neither team would have made it to the conference championship, and to the brink of the ncaa tournament. but in 1996 a couple of accidents happened. the best team in the league was ineligible to play in the tournament, that was one, and also the other top team suffered fluke losses in the first round. basically, the bracket in the tournament collapsed and left two cellar dwellers to play for the championship. neither one deserved to be there but one was going to win and then go on to represent the conference on the national stage in the ncaa tournament. it was a very ugly game. central florida was bad. mercer was worse. 12 minutes into the game the score was 23-0, central florida went on to win it. that put them in the ncaa tournament. of course, they were immediately

crushed in the first round. that was it. the season was over for the golden knights. but that central florida/mercer game, that conference championship game, i don't think there has ever been a game in college basketball where so much has been on the line, where something of such value was at stake and where both teams were so totally unworthy of the prize. if you're wondering what the 1996 transamerica athletic conference basketball championship game has to do with politics in the year 2013, well, i'm glad you asked because that same dynamic that i just described also defines the most important election this year. that is the race for governor of virginia. virginia is a big state. it's probably the premiere swing state in the country. this is an open seat race. each party has a legitimate chance of winning the governorship. yet somehow both parties have decided to field candidates with profound deficiencies. candidates that few voters actually seem interested in voting for.

this is a poll from just a couple weeks ago. look at that. terry mcauliffe and ken cuccinelli. they both have unfavorable ratings than favorable ratings. cuccinelli's ratings are worse. unfavorable is near 50%. we know why that is. partly idea lodgeal extremism, championshiped to tea party, christian right agenda. it's also scandal. news in virginia has been dominated this summer by revelations about lavish gifts that a businessman named johnny williams showered on the state's current republican governor and his family. cue ne cuccinelli took $18,000 gifts of walker, private jet, vacation home, catered thanksgiving feast. ordinarily all of that, ideological extreme of cuccinelli, poisonous unfavorable numbers, the fact virginia is a swing state, ordinarily all of that would be enough to doom a candidate like

cuccinelli. remember who cuccinelli is running against. terry mcauliffe has run for governor before in 2009 and got trounced in his own party's primary. it's a mega bundler who embodies so many aspects of d.c. that drive people crazy. that's why his favorable score was so weak in that recent poll. here's the kicker. that poll was taken before this. news that the securities and exchange commission is investigating a car company owned by mcauliffe. amazingly both somehow won their party's nominations without opposition this year. they are two very weak and very flawed general election candidates, but when this campaign ends, one of them will be governor of a big, important state. there are national implications here. by nominating cuccinelli in a purple state republicans are testing how far they can go to the right.

barack obama will not be on the ballot this fall, the electorate will be more republican-friendly. gops bet in a climate like that they can elect candidates. democrats belief gop will be so turned off and hold their noses and vote for mcauliffe. it's not a pretty race but it is the most closely watched election in the country. we'll talk about how it came to this, how voters got stuck with this choice. ♪

we are talking about the race for governor in virginia and two candidates voters are stuck with. laura harmon, executive director of virginia democratic party. former congressman tom davis from virginia. brian boyler of salon.com and house editor for cook political report and one of those

all-around numbers experts on politics so he can dissect virginia every way we want to dissect it. tom, i want to start with you on this one. because i think it's a question everybody looks at this race and asks, this is a swing state, a big state, virginia, this is on paper a very winnable race for republicans given the climate and open seat and all of that. how did they end up giving the seat to ken cuccinelli uncontested? >> convention. he took over the state republican party with the help of ron paul committee. they went to a convention instead of primary and the republican lieutenant governor said i can't win convention and he dropped out. >> if boling could have -- >> it would have been a much different race. boling had finances, back of the governor. it's created a rift in the party. he's had nothing to do with

cuccinelli at this point. it did give him a path to the nomination and a very conservative ticket to run with. >> we'll pick that up in a minute. at the start of this race, i think the idea of ken cuccinelli, how he could maybe win is that bob mcdonald, republican governor was very popular and the idea was bs you can't give anybody a second term in virginia but maybe cuccinelli could run for mcdonald's second term. bob mcdonald has been completely submerged in scandal the last few months. has it gotten to the point where mcdonald's troubles are rubbing off on cuccinelli in the polls, given he's taken $18,000 of gifts from the same guy? >> it's interesting. mcauliffe is running as mcdonald's for a while. he supported the transportation bill, cuccinelli didn't. now they're both running -- i think the governor's performance as a governor in terms of his job approval is actually pretty good. it's the personal stuff that now hangs over him because of the gifts that he took.

and cuccinelli took money from the same guy. from the star williams -- the star enterprise's guy. $18,000, the governor has said he will give the money back. cuccinelli has said -- has not said that to date. so that issue is still out there that could adversely effect him. i don't think anybody is paying attention yet. i think that's good news for republicans. traditionally virginia has voted for the party out of power of the white house nine straight times. that's what's going for him. >> lauren, maybe you could take us inside sort of democratic headquarters in virginia when you found out ken cuccinelli would be your opponent this year, was that a very happy day for democrats? we have a much better chance of winning this now? >> yeah, absolutely. i think ken cuccinelli has a record of extremism on issues important to virginians, gay and lesbian virginians, saying women are dependent on government. i would agree with tom that i

think choosing to run with convention rather than primary as we did with our candidates made their ticket weaker. we have three strong democrats who will get the job done this year. you know, certainly we're going to make sure folks continue to hear what cuccinelli has been up to. >> you mentioned the ticket and tom talked about this a minute ago, the lieutenant governor nominee picked at the same republican convention in virginia is e.w. jackson, who s is -- has said some incredibly inflammatory things. that's the mild way of putting it. to give you an example this is e.w. jackson in action. we have a montage we can play quickly. >> the klu klux klan did not do nearly as much to destroy black life as planned parenthood has done. >> barack obama is at best a confused man, is at worst the sensibilities, and i don't know how this combination works, of an atheist and muslim. >> we have never had a president who systematically disregards

our constitution, ignores our laws and sets himself up as some sort of king or dictator. >> so, now lieutenant governor and governor run separately in virginia, there are separate elections for them but e.w. jackson wanted this so be teen as the cuccinelli/jackson ticket. the conventional wisdom is cuccinelli wants as little to do with possible as jackson but tpm got audio on friday. this was ken cuccinelli reassuring conservative activists, no, he wants to be associated with jackson. let's just play that audio. >> i certainly support e.w. and all the grass roots work that we do. and the top of the ticket runs this, and puts in the effort and designs the system. and, look, i'm a grass roots campaigner. that's how this was designed. because i'm a grassroots campaigner. and because we're going to be

outspent by the machine here with terry mcauliffe. e.w. jackson gets the benefit of all of that work. he and i have discussed this. >> so, brian, this complicates things a lot for cuccinelli, i think, because the mcdonald -- the bob mcdonald model for winning in virginia is if -- at least from 2009 if you're a cultural conservative you downplay that as much as you can on general election, you run on the economy, on jobs. if that's your agenda, you wait until you're governor to do that. but cuccinelli is caught in a position where he has lieutenant governor candidate who has appeal to the really conservative republican party but he's saying things he shouldn't be saying but if he distances himself it offends the base. >> yes. he has conservatives on social and economic issues. nobody wants to lose a governor race, a gubernatorial race but there is a real silver lines for democrats here if they -- if mcauliffe loses and that is that, you know, it might help hold virginia as a fire wall, as

a democratic state in 2016 because you're going to have ken cuccinelli in office doing -- continuing to do and say the things he says about women's issues, about the affordable care act. if you have the system working well in maryland and d.c. where everyone is pointing in the same direction, he's continuing to meddle with it. suddenly, they'll be able to nationalize him and lieutenant governor, if they pull it off. you know, that's a loss for democrats in the near term but in the long term it kind of helps cement republican party's image nationwide. >> i want to pick up with cuccinelli and how he fits in. i'm beth... and i'm michelle. and we own the paper cottage. it's a stationery and gifts store. anything we purchase for the paper cottage goes on our ink card. so you can manage your business expenses and access them online instantly with the game changing app from ink. we didn't get into business to spend time managing receipts, that's why we have ink. we like being in business because we like being creative,

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dave, i'm hoping you can tell us about the cultural and democratic evolutions that transformed virginia. the perspective looking at it from the outside is it's

suburban swing voters who may be more moderate on cultural issues and who maybe used to republican voters or moved to the state and are turned off by exactly what sort of cuccinelli represents. that a fair reading of it? >> they're turned off by what ken cuccinelli represents. they're also turned off by what e.w. jackson represents. we talk about usually balancing a ticket, the need for a party to put people who can appeal to different voter groups on the ticket. in this case lieutenant governor candidate on the republican side, someone who's mentally unbalanced. even a lot of republicans would admit that he's been a dragnet and i think that's moved this race, in addition to the mcdonald implosion and the fishy johnny williams contributions from a race that might have favored cuccinelli a few months ago into a pure toss-up. there are two ways a democrat can win an election in virginia, steve. the mark warner method, model of going to southwest virginia with a bluegrass band saying mark warner is a hero of the hills -- >> a very rural --

>> yes. my barometer is a place called buck cannon county, cold capital of southwest virginia where warner got 60% of the vote in 2001. then the tim kaine model and barack obama, jim webb model as well, running up those suburban numbers, appealing to the suburban vote in hampton roads in richmond where most voters actually live. and maybe downplays a little less that coal country and shenen doha swing. so, in 20 05 when tim kaine won the governorship he won 6 0% of the vote in fairfax county, up six points than 60% warner had won but only won 2% in buck county. now, terry mcauliffe's model is a little hybrid model. he's going to southwest virginia, stumping with ted strickland, former governor of ohio. he is, you know, promoting his jobs plan in rural areas of the state and also appealing to

northern virginia business leaders. what's smart about terry's campaign, i think it's been run better than the cuccinelli's campaign, he's surrounding himself with people who are king makers in these types of gubernatorial elections, the election that can gin up those independent votes in northern virginia. both parties are focusing most of their efforts on the base. >> we started to talk about mcauliffe here. i'll ask you the same question as tom, we put the unfavorable numbers up there. there's also the s.e.c. stuff about green tech automotive, the electric car company. we can talk about that more in a minute. the fact he ran in 2009. he just got trounced by the democratic party. i think a lot of people look at this and ask, how did somebody with that background just have this nomination uncontested? there was no opposition for him. are democrats that excited about him? what are you seeing that got your party behind him like this? >> i think democrats are excited about terry. this year, we're here for

someone ready to create business. mcauliffe is a businessman. he'll bring a lot of jobs to the state. he's brought along the whole ticket making sure we make this a pro business environment as opposed to cuccinelli and jackson who are scaring business as way. we've seen companies saying they wouldn't want to come to a place where employees, women, couldn't get the health care, or lbgt couldn't get jobs. they're making this a business unfriendly climate. >> what happened with mcauliffe? the spring of 2009 watching his campaign for governor implode and he lost that primary like two to one. i'm curious given that experience and baggage, what happened in the four years between then and now within the democratic party -- not mcauliffe versus cuccinelli but within the democratic party to say, this is the guy, this is the one. what happened? >> fair enough. i think he hit the road. he got out there, did the hard work of talking to voters and letting them know what he was about. i was at a crab steam in matthews county, his wife was

out there talking about the things they care about there. we were up in shuspect shenendo, terry was talking about the rural concerns. he's done the work. you can't just run for governor and expect folks will love you because you put your name on the ballot. you have to show up, tell them who you are and he's done that over the last four years and we're ready to have his back now. >> i love going to the crab steam, the local traditions. >> i loved it, too. >> brian, maybe you can talk about, too, what is it about terry mcauliffe that seems to turn off -- jonathan chaten, new york magazine, he said the mcauliffe is the democrat democrats dream of voting against. there's -- the top-tier fund-raising, beltway, all of that. there's some sensibility that in

2009 he offended democrats. >> there's very little about terry mcauliffe that -- that sort of they feel like they can relate to. they don't feel he has core values that really they want to see in their candidates. like, they're willing to tolerate candidates that sort of have, you know, harassies here and there. and i think that that sort of gets to why, you know, liberals haven't been super enthusiastic about mcauliffe but cuccinelli comes along and they change his mind that maybe they can -- >> each side is voting against the other candidate, which i get. but then we had those numbers earlier that showed cuccinelli's unfavorable is much higher than mcauliffe's. that's before this s.e.c. news broke. so the story with the s.e.c. investigation is that, you know, that mcauliffe started this

electric car company, green tech automotive. the idea was sort of using to prove he's a job creator, can prove he can bring all sorts of jobs to the state. and in the process, the investigation is at least looking at -- was pressure exerted on -- to the department of homeland security to get visas for people to bank roll the company. tom, quickly, i mean, when you look at this as a republican, is this something that -- are you looking at this saying cuccinelli can't save himself but maybe this saves cuccinelli? >> at the end of the race if this race is about cuccinelli, i think democrats win. if this race is about mcauliffe, i think mcauliffe can win. both candidates have flaws with voters. we saw the unfavorables, that's before the barrage of negative advertising goes in. i wouldn't be surprised if both candidates were upside down on favorable/favorable. this will be one of the most negative campaigns in virginia and we've had a bunch of them. >> that happened once before, a

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through september 21st when you buy a back to school savings pass. staples. that was easy. the last high profile race in virginia where you have the two candidates who went into election day much more unpopular than popular in 1984 with oliver north, iran contra figure, conviction overturned on a tech any calty, came out and ran for nature and then chuck robb. north's unfavorable near 50%. chuck robb's we got there, 43%. favorables back in the 30s, terrible place for them to be. just to show you how that election was won, and it was not on positive messages at all, this is from documentary made about that race called "the perfect candidate" and this is chuck robb on the eve of election and this is his

summation to vote for chuck robb. >> you know something about my opponent, my opponent is a document-shredding, constitution-trashing, commander in chief bashing, ayatollah h loving, arms dealing, criminal protective, resume, swiss banking, law breaking, letter faking, self-serving, sneak oil salesman who can't tell the difference between the truth and a lie. >> and you should have heard the bad stuff he said about north, too. that's the division of a negative campaign. you're in the middle of strategy. are we going to see, is this going to be one of the more negative campaigns between cuccinelli and mcauliffe? >> short answer, yes. i mean, there's a lot to work

with on cuccinelli certainly on our side. obviously, i'm biased but i happen to think most of the things cuccinelli will be coming at mcauliffe will be to distract from his record of scandal as attorney general, to distract that he's trying to pretend moderate and we know he's arm in arm with jackson, as we just heard. a lot you'll see from him. for us, we'll talk about his record. if people want to call that negative, i call it facts. >> tom, you have the experience, back to 1994 there, chuck robb won that race by three points it turned out and six years later he ran for re-election and lost to george allen. had you the experience of running as a republican in northern virginia, which a lot more democratic-friendly now than then, with oliver north on the ticket, can you talk about the experience that -- for republicans in virginia, for more moderate republicans in virginia, what's going through their mind? >> you're getting as much separation as you can.

ken will run strongly in rural areas of the state. he won statewide election four years ago with a pretty significant margin over a very strong democratic candidate. now, part was on the governor's coat tails. urban areas are where republicans are hurting in an area like this. social issues hurt us. immigration issues are hard. we know this in virginia. when everyone shows up, more democrats than republicans. we've seen that in the last two presidential elections. the off years have been tended to be against the party in the white house. >> dave, that is the million dollar question in virginia and everywhere. the obama coalition that produced two straight national democratic victories, showed up in 2008, showed up in 2012, not there in 2009 when mcdonald won. not there in the 2010 midterms. do you have a sense looking at 2013 what kind of electorate we're looking at? >> this will be more democratic than the one that showed up in

2009 but it's not going to be as democratic that showed up in 2008 or 2012. that's why this race is a toss-up. the county i would pay attention to on elections night, prince william county, kind of in the southern outer ring of the d.c. suburbs, the ring of fire, the foreclosure belt. the eastern half of the country is majority/minority, close to potomac river. turnout fell off close to 65% where it was in 2008. meanwhile, in western prince william county, a little wealthier, majority white, out towards hay market, down route 66, you have an electorate that only fell off about 30% from where it was between 2008 and 2009. the question for terry mcauliffe's campaign, can he get those voters, hispanic, asian-american, african-american, in places -- in east prince william county? the same thing in richmond suburb and hampton roads out to the polls to vote. in order to do that, he has to run extremely negative campaign.

that makes the prospect of cuccinelli and jackson scary. >> this is sort of the first test we're getting, too, of the post-obama era democrats. how can democrats win and how can democrats get the obama coalition out without obama on the ballot? that's one of the reasons i think virginia is worth watching. also, it will be a mud fight. what should we know today? my answer's after this. what you wear to bed is your business.

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today? there are still republican lawmakers dabbing with birtherism. mark wayne mullen confronted at a town hall claiming to have documents that disprove president obama's american citizenship. he responded at first it was a dead issue but then went on to tell the woman, i believe that you're saying. layer mused who would ever have thought we would be questioning whether we had a natural born president as president. the congressman has never been a

birther and just misspoke. also should know tip o'neill grandfatherly face of the house, option to ronald reagan in the 1980s. he may soon be subject of a movie. former o'neill aide todd o'connor is raising money on kick-starter for a documentary based on the ledged endary irish catholic who passed away in 1984. draw from classic biography tip o'neill and the democratic century. if the fundraising campaign is successful, the maxim may need updating, all politics is local and crowd sourced, too. speaking of famous politicians, we should know the place where a lot of them are buried, congressional cemetery in washington is being overrun by goats on purpose. the cemetery has become overgrown with weeds and pesky plants like poison ivy. a herd of 100 goats released to graze on overgrowth and they can

be ecological alternative to pesticides. they are encouraging visitors to attend and to of wachlt the goats are already so popular, it's probably not long before some of them start getting mentioned as senate contenders for 2014. finally we should know reading the fine print matters even for big banks. this week a judge ruled in favor of a russian man who rewrote fine print of a credit card application to give himself favorable terms, zero percent interest rate, no niece and no credit limit. he got the application in the mail from tinkoff credit systems in 2008. rather than throw it away like most of us would, he decided to do what the banks did all the times, rewrote the terms. he sent the application back and surprisingly the bank accepted the terms and issued him a credit card. now the bank is trying to collect fees and late charges that weren't part of the agreement. not only has the judge ruled in his favor, he's turning the tables by suing the bank for

breaching the contract. the bank's defense, in support, was simply, i didn't read it. our guests, lauren. >> i wanted to bring the attention to op-ed written by one of my colleagues, the executive director of the florida costa mesa party. i'm a little bit of a nerd on state party stuff. for anyone wondering more about the role of state parties, what state parties or how democrats win in the future is going to go away in the era of super pacs, chelsea clinton it out. it's great. >> state parties stick together. >> what we've been talking about, waiting all year for, nationals started their run, come from behind 4-0 down to the phillies, strasburg on the mound today. this is their run. probably won't win the division, atlanta up there but in for a wild car card. >> too bad the braves are up there. >> sorting out the question at the top of the show whether the

republican animosity towards health care reform is creating some sort of space for immigration reform to maybe move ahead. i think the republican leadership is interested in putting to bed this idea they are going to shut down the government. if they are able to do that, maybe we'll have a clear sense of how the base regards immigration reform process. >> dave. >> this is august recess, so it's a sleepy time for a lot of political journalists. pay attention to what's happening back home in a lot of districts for members holding town hall meetings like congressman mullen. these tend to be the times when the seeds of tea party challenges next year and primaries are sewn. whether they play to their base, strike a moderate tone, whether some in the audience run for themselves. >> i want to thank my guests. thanks for getting up. thank you all for joining us. we'll be back here next weekend, next saturday and sunday at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. our guest will include new york

city mayoral candidate. coming up next melissa harris-perry, 40% of white americans have only white friends. that and so many cities facing a potential economic crisis. that's melissa harris-perry. she's coming up next. i'll see you next week here on "up." it's about where you're go. the new ram 1500. best-in-class 25 mpg. ♪ north american truck of the year. ♪ the truck of texas. ♪ better residual value than ford and chevy. it's the fastest-growing truck brand in america. guts. glory. ram.

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and because usaa's commitment to serve military members, veterans, and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. my question, will you have to work for a living for the rest of your life? plus, family and friendships across the racial divide. and why owning your own home may no longer be the american dream. first, getting women in the government, and getting the government out of women. good morning, i'm melissa harris-perry. come with me for a moment back to 1951 to an exam room at baltimoroh