all right. you're up. series finale favorites. >> "lost" mainly because it was finally over. >> and "the office". >> a lot of bunch of "the shield". >> i changed mine from dawson creek's to ana marie's, 90210, best ever. "morning joe" starts right now.

be absolutely clear, we are going to accept nothing as it relates to obama care. there's a time and place for everything and this is not that time or place. >> so far, majority leader harry reid has essentially told the house of representatives and the american people go jump in a lake. if harry reid forces a government shutdown, that will be a mistake and i hope he backs away from that ledge he's pushing us towards. >> good morning. monday, september 30th, 6:00 in the morning, darkness still over the united states capitol. washington anchor for bb world news america katty kay, former communications for president george w. bush, nicolle wallace, msnbc and "time" magazine senior political analyst mark halperin, former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve ratner, and on capitol hill for us, the reporter for "the new york times" jeremy peters, good morning, everybody. >> good morning. >> all kinds of darkness over capitol hill. >> lots of darkness. pick your headline, t"the new

york post" says "storm coming," "usa today" "closing time?" . mark halperin, we'll get into the details of what's happening and what's going to happen today. do you see a way we avoid a shutdown in the next 24 12 to 14 hours? >> i don't. you cannot imagine a group of people less likely to strike a deal based on personality, political interests, based on the weakness of speaker boehner in dealing with some members of his conference, based on the president's weakness with his own party to some extent, based on the fact that the democrats are united and the republicans are divided, that combination leads us not just to a shutdown but a perilous month not dealing with just the cr but the debt limit. the best hope is that the president does something bold. i think we'll see the president come out and talk in a confrontational way. the boldness will have wait for later in the week. >> set the table, early sunday morning the house approved a

spending bill that includes a one-year delay of obama care and waves a controversial medical device tax. the plan is as good as dead on arrival in the democrat controlled senate. majority leader harry reid made it clear he will not pass any plan weakening the president's health care law. he opted to keep the senate in recess until 2:00 this afternoon instead of bringing it back early to take up that house bill. at this point many can see the shutdown practically unavoidable as mark said. here comes the blame game. >> there's only one side that is linking obama care with the shutdown of government. >> what you're seeing play out here is the end of what senator richard burr, republican of north carolina, say was the dumbest idea he had ever heard of. >> the president himself has acknowledged the law is not ready. he's making eggs sepgss for unions, big business and special interests. >> we have a system where the rich and powerful, those with connections to the obama administration get spared some

of the burdens of the obama care. those who are struggling, single moms, young people, people just trying to make it -- >> this is the old football strategy. when you get to where you want to be in a football game, you run out the clock. >> we could have a great country album. i peel like o brother where art thou, only senate where art thou. >> i'm glad to invite to the microphone our distinguished majority leader in the senate, harry reid. i'm sorry. harry's not here today. >> wow. stand-up routines going on there yesterday. jeremy peters help us walk through today. harry reid, obviously, by design did not bring the senate back yesterday putting more pressure on the house. they won't be back until 2:00 in the afternoon. that leaves by my count ten hours until midnightp. what happens in those ten hours? >> well, the senate will move very quickly to dispense with the house bill. it will take a matter of minutes. then the bill goes back to the

house and it will be stripped of all of its republican policy provisions like the one-year delay in obama care and the the out provision for employers that don't want to provide contraceptive coverage. at that point it's all in john boehner's hands. john boehner has a difficult choice to make. he can put a bill on the floor that contains none of these policies, without the one-year delay which, of course, will enrage his conservative base because this was the issue that they -- a lot of them campaigned on and the issue that capitulated them into power in 2011. more and more republicans are starting to ask him to do that. so he's under a lot of pressure from moderate elements of his party to put a clean debt -- clean budget bill on the floor. now, if he doesn't do that, the house -- this seems like the most likely scenario at this point, the house will send him back a bill that has a couple other items in it. one of them could be a repeal of this medical device tax.

another one could be a provision that makes members of congress have to pay for their own health care. but whether or not those are going to satisfy the conservative base, i just don't see that happening at this point. because they have asked over and over again to delay or even repeal obama care and they feel that they've already compromised by giving into a one-year delay rather than a full repeal. >> we had the weekend basically seemed it's your fault, no, it's your fault, both sides trying to blame the other. some moderate republicans suggesting we would be foolish as a party to go anywhere near trying to shut down the government because we will get the kick back. have they moved the needle on to shifting the blame on to democrats? >> i don't think so, but i think it's not just moderate republicans who are warning against shutting down the government. you've got really, really credible conservative forces in the republican party like senator tom coburn, senator sessions, senator corker, you

have a divide between those who want to legislate and those who want to politicize what they view as this really pure desire to defund obama care. so the party isn't just breaking along typical ideological lines, the party is now fracturing in its purpose, where ted cruz has seen an opportunity to galvanize i think a lot of the same conservatives who were excited about sarah palin's, you know, kind of burn the house down, conservati conservatism. ted cruz has offered them something more real, something they can grab on to, a plan to shut down the government over really a last stand for what he's describing as conservative principles and then the party is now divided among those who believe they were elected to govern. i think john boehner is in that category. the republican senators i describe are in that category. that is the new and really fascinating divide in the republican party and how that ends up will shape everything as

we move into our next primary process in the republican party. >> what have markets done so far and what are they likely to do today? >> the market is going to open dow, probably over 100 points. it's been down -- it was down last week for the first time in a while. they're down overseas. the markets have had an attitude like, this thing always seems to get solved at the last minute so we're not going to panic too much right now. we'll talk a little later about some of the indicators in the market that are not so favor ble. the shutdown itself the market will take. what the market isn't going to take is as we get closer to october 17th the idea of some kind of debt default. i agree with you mark and everybody, the shutdown is inevitable. it really seems unimaginable at this point that senate and house will come together. what worries me about this are a couple things. the shutdown will be worse than a lot of previous shutdowns because the congress has not passed a single appropriation bill. which means every department has to put all its nonessential

workers back on furlough. in '95 when we had the last shutdown, a number of appropriations bills passed made the shutdown a little less effective or damaging is a better word. the thing that worries me is what are the grounds for negotiation here. the government shuts down and then at some point there will be conversations and they will try to resolve this. but the ask -- the ask is so far apart right now. i don't believe that white house will do anything other than something purely symbolic about obama care and the republicans have made that the signature issue in this shutdown. they've put on a whole bunch of other stuff that some ways some of it is more unpalatable at the white house. it's not a question if somebody wants to spend $20 billion or $25 billion we'll compromise on $22.5 billion. they're far apart on fundamental issues. >> if you are watching in iowa or let's say new hampshire for the sake of it this morning, what does the shutdown mean to you? if it goes into effect at least 825,000 federal employees will

be furloughed. national parks would be forced to shut. everything from the statute of liberty, that means to the grand canyon in yosemite and nasa and the epa, more than 90% of their staffers, the ones deemed nonessential will be forced to stay at home. but a large portion of daily services will actually be unaffected. things having to do with homeland security and law enforcement, prisons and federal courts, mail delivery and air traffic, also benefits like social security and medicare will keep coming through, though new applications could be delayed. >> mark halperin, you -- obviously there are real life impacts to what is going to happen at midnight tonight, but you were talking last night and we were e-mailing around about the president's role in all this. obviously thep arepens have forced him into -- the republicans have forced him into this position. what should he be doing in your view in this moment in time? best for him to lay low? >> he's chose an strategy of mostly being lay low and then confrontational.

he's not having private talks. there's reports he wanted to bring in the leadership and harry reid talked him out of it. sort of a strangely passive role for him right now and i think the -- it's based on everything the white house said this weekend publicly and privately, it seems their view is, they will break the republicans' back. they will move public opinion their way even more and force john baner to capitulate. it's not a bad strategy given where you are and you do hear republican voices in the house and senate moving that direction but at a time when his poll numbers are down and when he needs a victory, politically, to sort of get back to momentum after a year that's been tough so far, it's taking a pretty big bet on the eventual reasonableness of the house republicans and i think that you don't see joe biden trying to form a deal, you don't see anyone else in the administration up on capitol hill with sort of dealmaking authority. chief of staff and treasury secretary whose focus seems elsewhere. he's putting a lot of risk on a single strategy with no second

track. >> but who would he even negotiate with at this point? the idea of sending biden to see mitch mcconnell who doesn't want to negotiate because he's worried about his primary and the senate isn't in charge, you have to negotiate with the house, you have boehner who doesn't even speak for his caucus. like the old line i want to talk to europe who do i call up? >> it's a totally fair question. maybe i'm too traditional. seems like this is a problem for the government. mitch mcconnell if he were invited to the white house would he not go? boehner not go? in the past you would have meetings and discussions looking for a solution. we all agree, shutdown is likely, almost a certainty. we agree that country can survive that. this is a dress rehearsal for the debt ceiling where the stakes are so much higher. for that you have to do it. >> there's an opening. he's the president of the united states. he could look at the senate republicans who share his desire to not shut down the government. this is to me, and we've spent a lot of time -- i spent a lot of

time -- >> republicans don't control the ways. >> you're talking about making a deal. they have the ability to influence their peers and they could certainly be strengthened by speaking with some authority about what the white house may or may not do in the end. so the notion that president obama has no one to reach out to, this has been their excuse for six years, why president obama counts very few friends in the congress, but he -- senator tom coburn, republican, someone he knows, and the notion that the president has no opportunity to call republican senators and try to -- >> nicole, look, i agree about the senate republicans, about 20 that voted with the democrats in cloture and shut down ted cruz last week. they're as unhappy as the rest of us are and you've seen them on these sound bites. >> they've confronted ted cruz. >> absolutely to no effect. ted cruz kept doing his thing. >> the notion president obama couldn't try to lead his way out of this, is ridiculous. he's the president of the united

states. >> look, it's clear that model that's going to have to exist for at least the next year and a half you make deals with senate republicans and really put pressuren the house to say here's a bipartisan senate deal, you to do something. that puts more pressure on house republicans than what they have right now. >> how many people does ted cruz actual represent? >> ted cruz speaks for the passions of many, many people. i mean i can't tell you how many, but he has -- i would predict, if it hasn't happened already, he will shoot to the top of every poll of republicans in all the early primary states. he has animated and excited the most fervent base of republicans. he has taken all those conservatives who really hope that sarah palin was for someone who could stand up to the conservatives who seem to sort of fold when the democrats put pressure on them. he is animated them and given them hope finally there is someone who will stand up for

what they believe in. he has a lot of supporters and the most important kind, fervent and excited. >> you write in your piece in the times today about ted cruz's influence and perhaps not just ted cruz, inflated sense of influence based on the echo chamber of twitter and blogs and special interest groups? >> yes. well, i mean, it's one thing that you're starting to hear more and more from republicans is they're concerned that they are talking only to themselves. and the one element that i think is crucially different about this shutdown compared to the last shutdown in '96 was that you think about in 1996, the drudge report was an e-mail news letter that got sent out to a handful of people. andrew breitbart was working at e-on-line and fox news still a year away from launching. the right has this huge media megaphone and their eusing it to their strategic advantage. the problem you will hear a lot of republicans complaining about is they feel this em boldens

people like ted cruz into feeling they have a much larger following than they do. as nicole was pointing out, it's a very fervent base, but whether or not it's as many people as ted cruz and his followers would like to believe -- you know, i don't know that that's the case. >> obviously bill clinton was president the last time there was a government shutdown in '95. his advice to president obama, he said, it's time to call the republicans' bluff. >> there's nothing to negotiate with. he shouldn't delay the health care bill. it's the law and we're in the -- we're opening the enrollment on october 1st. this is the house republicans and the tea party people saying, we don't want to negotiate with the democrats. we want to dictate over the senate, over the house democrats, over the speaker of the house of our own party and over the president, we insist on dictating the course -- >> you're saying you have to stand up to that no matter what the consequence? >> i do.

>> president clinton said when it comes to obama care republicans are, quote, begging for america to fail. those are his words. new jersey governor chris christie known for reaching across the aisle to democrats on some issues criticized congress for coming to an impasse whose only conclusion now appears to be a shutdown. >> i think there's got to be a solution other than that. i don't think that we should be doing that. i don't -- and quite frankly, to be fair, i don't think you hear responsible republican leaders advocating a shutdown of the government. that by definition is a failure. you got to work it out. >> nicole, you agree with that? >> absolutely. he made the important point here. there are a lot of republicans on the hill who privately and publicly have said just what governor christie said. i think this is going to be the next debate in the republican party. not right/left. republican party was sort of bound to come apart, right? we've lost enough national elections that we were bound to implode and reorganize ourselves

in time to hopefully recapture the white house. i thought it would be along ideological lines. i thought we would fracture maybe over there's talk of an abortion bill, senator rubio was going to bring that up, maybe over gay marriage. i thought they were going to implode over an ideological debate. >> social issues? >> right. >> or foreign policy. we have a divide in the republican party. rand paul, really bringing along a lot of younger conservatives in an idea that's a lot more isolationist than a traditional republican sort of policy view and so i thought maybe the republican party would split apart and then reorganize around some sort of ideological breakup. the fact that it's happening over a tactic, i think has surprised a lot of people. the fact that it has happened over whether or not you participate in the job that you ran for. this is about whether or not you participate as a united states senator, whether or not you parse pate as a member of congress. this is about whether you participate in governing this country or blow it up. >> not just over a tactic. they chose to make it over obama

care and whether in a sense you want to blow it up over that -- >> we agree. the republicans are not divided in their opposition to obama care. >> to what's going to happen and how we get out of this mess, i think once the government shuts down, there will be negotiations of some sort. i think that's inevitable and i think the key question is whether speaker boehner is willing to violate the so-called hastert rule and bring something to the floor which does not have majority support in his caucus. i don't think there's anything that obama is going to do that will get majority support among republicans in the house. they're so far apart that's not going to happen. boehner becomes the key player and whether he's willing to do what he's done three times so far this year. >> over syria most recently. >> which is to basically bring something to the floor that will pass with -- of all the democrats or most of them and a hunk of republicans. >> i think that obama, i think that obama has an opportunity to strengthen boehner by compromising. i think obama isn't blameless in all this. there are things he could do to

strengthen boehner. >> boehner doesn't want to talk yet. they had a conversation a few days ago, boehner is not ready to talk yet. he has to let this play out i think. >> what is president obama's incentive to negotiate. if he sits there the law that he championed and got passed and upheld by the supreme court will go into effect. if he doesn't -- if he doesn't give anything up on this he gets what he wants. why does he negotiate with republicans? >> here what's the white house and the hill will monitor. one is how the press covers the shutdown and does it just go back into 1990s mode of saying obstructionist republicans are causing a shutdown and people, real people are hurting, and the white house is assuming that's going to happen. they'll watch the polls and see whether it's not just partisan. whether by the end of the week there are surveys that show public/private people are blaming republicans and that's going to put pressure on boehner to come to the floor and either force his -- some members of his own conference beyond the handful who will never be with him on this to have a

compromise. ne don't have to capitulate on the floor. they don't let nancy pelosi dictate what gets passed. the white house does not have much incentive. they think those trends will go in their direction by the end of the week or early next week at the latest because again, the press is largely sympathetic to their arguments on this that it's the house republicans' fault. aided and abetted by divisions within the republican party and public opinion on these issues tends to be with the white house. >> is there some glimmer of hope that you mentioned the debt ceiling right at the beginning, if we go for a shutdown, if that actually happens, does that paradoxically make hitting the debt ceiling and not raising the debt ceiling a little less likely. >> yes. >> we have the fight over the shutdown. >> i think that when there are negotiations and i do believe they're inevitable, i would like to think in a benign world which we may not be living in, it all gets wrapped together and whatever gets resolved takes the debt ceiling off the table because that's a really, really disastrous scenario and which in

one obama has rightly or wrongly said i'm not negotiates over that. if he negotiates over the cr and gets something done that then ob vee yates the debt ceiling problem that would be as good an outcome as you can imagine. >> dream on. >> i like to dream. >> he's got charts for us on this coming up. >> we're trying. we're trying. coming up on "morning joe," senator chuck schumer says fanatics have taken over the republican party. we'll talk to him in a bit. bob woodward and david axelrod. later dr. squeak emanuel and senator rob johnson will impact the debate of obama care as it goes into effect tomorrow. up next a feud brewing in the wyoming senate primary. why the cheneys are going after former why owe ming senator alan simpson. first, bill karins has a look at the forecast. hey, bill. >> hey, good monday morning to you. for millions of us, it was an incredible weekend with sunshine, warm afternoons. that's going to continue pretty much all week for the east

coast. the trouble spot where the people are still recovering from damaging winds and rain was throughout the pacific northwest. look at the radar this morning. still raining hard. at one point a couple hundred thousand without power. the strong winds are moving through the intermountain west. few spots that have strong winds forecast including the mountains of montana and a section of oregon. that's where that big storm is going to be as we go throughout this monday. the east coast, we're still looking nice. the big storm we talked about last week that could have clipped the east coast just off the coast of new jersey, but it's far enough offshore not to cause any problems. if you know any surfers on the east coast they're probably going out to enjoy some of those big waves. beautiful afternoon from d.c. all the way through charlotte, raleigh, atlanta looks nice. low humidity, nice sunshine, we'll do it again for tuesday. some spots you're going to go almost two weeks here before you get any rain. philadelphia, this week, i mean look at this, 84 and sunny on wednesday. break out the shorts and it,

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♪ the all-new 2014 lexus is. it's your move. welcome back to "morning joe." from our parade of papers, the charlotte observer the justice department is filing a lawsuit to stop north carolina's voter id law to make voters show a valid id. critics say it discriminates against african-american and older voters. >> the "orlando sentinel," teen able employee was fired and arrested by goodwill for giving out extra discounts to its

poorsest customers. 19-year-old andrew anderson was accused of giving $4,000 worth of up an thorrized discounts to shoppers who couldn't afford items. after a backlash goodwill decided to drop the chargers against anderson but chose not to give him his job back. >> the daily mail, following the launch of iowa 7 last week, the new operating system is making their stomach's turn. a growing number of apple customers say the, quote, zooming animation and new flashy graphics make them feel physically stick. still more than 200 million downloaded the new ios during its first week. >> have you tried it? it does. >> it kind of shoots at you. >> makes me feel good, ener in rised, upbeat. >> as all apple products do. >> can't handle it, turn away. >> wow. taking a hard line. >> wow. taking a hard line on behalf of apple. >> i like it so much i don't

care about the nausea. >> take drama mean and keep on typing. >> also in "usa today," jet blue announced plans to launch a premium class next summer called mint. it will feature menu, live flat seats and flat screen tvs and only available on flights from new york to california. the airline says this is a way for jetblue to compete with other airlines but critics say it goes against their commitment to treat all passengers the same. >> mint, i like it. >> lying flat. >> anywhere i can lie flat i'm so for that. >> nicole is in. >> let's go to d.c. with us now the chief white house correspondent for politico, mike allen with a look at the playbook. good morning. >> good morning, willie. >> before we get into your topics today, your quick read on the shutdown coming now a little more than 12 hours? >> yeah. i got an e-mail just now from a top democrat who said the reason the president's not going to cave, the reason senate democrats are not going to give in, stave off this shutdown,

this top democrat says it's time to punch the bully in the nose. that's the thinking in the white house. and in senator reid's office. >> echos some of what we were saying earlier. up on politicos this morning, democrats recruiting women to compete in red states against republicans. explain that a little. >> couple states including west virginia, democrats are running women on the theory that republicans have long had trouble running against women -- excuse me republicans have had trouble running against women without overplaying their hand and coming off as shove nist and there's polling that shows that voters think that women may be more likely to work together in washington, get things done. the democratic pollster tells us that women are viewed as more likely to reach across the aisle, rather than grandstand. i don't know where she would get that. >> mike, i heard that arens were

thinking the same thing -- republicans were thinking the same thing too. such a premium on compromise, the issues will be trying to run a candidate who voters think will behave like a grownup and get washington working rather than shutting down. >> that's right. and so republicans also are going on a diversity push of the 40 open seats, seats where someone's not running to be re-elected that are competitive, a quarter of those have a candidate who's a woman, who's a minority or who's gay or less beyond, among republicans. so both sides see this polling, both sides are agreeing with katty that voters want washington to work together, want to break this fever a little bit. >> there's a lot of buzz around the table about a statement put out by alan simpson the other day. so walk us through a little bit. basically lynne cheney telling former senator alan simpson of wyoming to, quote, shut up. back story and what happened

after that. >> yeah. this is a remarkable statement from alan simpson, former republican senator from wyoming. a friend of dick cheney for 45 years, and they had a confrontation in cody, wyoming, the wild west, over liz cheney's senate race. she is running against challenging republican senator mike enzi who people -- very popular in wyoming, and she could win. she's going to have a lot of money. a state without a lot of voters. very high stakes here. alan simpson, who had warned that if liz cheney got in, it could tear apart the republican party, has now come out for mike enzi. in the cheney household that didn't go over very well. the cheneys don't take things quietly. at a charity event, dick cheney's granddaughter elizabeth got alan simpson to sign a football. he was signing memorabilia seems innocent enough. then later the simpsons thought

better of that and they thought, that might be taken as an endorsement of liz cheney. what in that winds up at a chain campaign auction. al simpson wanted to take his name off the football. cody wyoming, a great setting for this showdown, lynne cheney comes up and says i can't believe you embarrassed me, embarrassed my granddaughter like that, and when he said that this might be used politically, she said, what about liz cheney when she's 8 years old campaigning for her and according to al simpson in the long statement he gave to the cody paper, he said that she said, shut up, just shut up, shut up, three times. lynne cheney to the former senator. and their longtime friend. >> obviously about a lot more than a football. >> it always is, right? you know, since i've left the white house, one of the things that people ask me, particularly living in new york city, where

most people haven't seen a real live republican, is what was dick cheney really like? the best way to answer that is to describe him as the softy and the pussy cat in the cheney family. the women in his household are tough, fierce, take no prisoners and that would include long-time family friend alan simpson. >> dick cheney as the softy is something i have to absorb for a while that i bet he thinks this is funny. >> i am sure. he has a great sense of humor and he does sort of admire the ferocity of the cheney women. >> just out of curiosity, when walking in the upper west side and you say dick cheney is a pussy cat, how does that go over? >> i usually get a table and everyone around me runs. >> she's here. >> you know -- i lead a double life. i run out of here, wipe off all the makeup and put on a hat. >> you have to. >> republican witness protection. >> witness protection.

>> political playbook. >> have a great news week. >> tom brady, peyton manning both undefeated after four weeks of football. a very different story for the new york giants. we'll go through the best and the worst this weekend's matchups with mike florio and look at that guy, mike barnicle, we'll be right back. thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below... to the finest comforts above. we're not simply saluting history...

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here for the grid iron grind, the founder of profootballtalk.com, mike florio. mike barnicle joins the table as well. gentlemen, good to see you. >> great to be here. >> start with the broncos, 52 points, peyton manning is doing whatever he wants, whenever he wants. they're just steam rolling their way through the nfl. >> peter king told me last fight this is the best four-game stretch that peyton manning has ever had in his entire career over 200 games. these four games, the best ever combined in a four-week span. the thing with the broncos is, they can inwith, they can win every game in the regular season. people want to know if they can get it done in january because they failed last year and peyton manning has a mixed history in the period of time season. single elimination, maybe you're not as good as you are. they're going to roll through the regular season, postseason is where it matters. >> are they the best team in football? >> i think it's them, and then a huge gap and then you start getting into the seattles and anybody else. and then after all that there's a huge gap and the jaguars.

>> yeah. that's a huge gap. >> and they play. the broncos and jaguars play in 13 days. >> that's not pretty. >> last night the late game, nbc, the patriots are 4-0. they didn't look great in the first three games. kind of turned it on yesterday. >> they did. they're winning. it doesn't matter how you look in september. you get wins, put them in the bank, your team gets better. they're still waiting for tight end rob gronkowski, danny amendola, kim brel thompson undrafted made the big plays. tried to blow it. made for an interesting game. lot of empty seats at the georgia dome in the third and fourth quarter. those folks made missed a good finish. last play, game over, falcons lose. they're 1-3, a year after going 13-3. >> suffered a potentially huge loss last night potentially. >> the report is vince wilfork the pro bowl defensive lineman done for a year with a torn achilles. they overcame it last night that happened early, but that will be a tough one.

>> if i tore my achilles would i be done for a year? >> we'll wheel you out here. >> you mentioned the seahawks they're 4-0, pretty lucky to be 4-0. >> they are. but they made their own luck yesterday. they tied up that game late. the 58-yard interception return by richard sherman minus one shoe, forcing overtime. that was a game the texans should have won easily and here's the thing with seattle, you're not going to beat him at them in the playoffs. if they win enough road games they get their playoffs games at home you pencil them in for the new york super bowl. you can't beat them at home in the postseason or ever. >> that super bowl will be played in the stadium that hosts a couple pretty bad football teams right now. i'm a giants fan and i couldn't believe what i saw last week in carolina and fou i'm starting to believe what i'm watching. they get blown out again yesterday. >> 69-7 the last two weeks, 110-30 the last three weeks. this was at least competitive. they forced the chiefs into

three turnovers. it was 10-7 in the third quarter. it wasn't until that 89-yard punt return by dexter mccluster that it started to go the other way. the giants showed some fight. i thought they would pull it out but in the end the chiefs just rolled. >> what happened to the defense? >> i mean the giants have always been noted for having a strong defense. >> and eric fisher the right tackle has been struggling for the chiefs. i thought they would load up that spot and go after themp. that's how they've had their best success with the pass rush. >> the other side of that, the chiefs are a great story in the nfl. two wins last year and now they're 4-0 already. >> and it shows how in the nfl -- this is one of the reasons so many coaches get fired each year. there's always a team like the chiefs that turn it around quickly so the owners think if i hire the right coach i'm going to turn it around quickly too and that's why it's going to be seven or eight guys who lose their jobs the day after the regular season ends. >> a gad one tonight. miami and new orleans. >> very good one tonight. superdome, tough place to play. miami is undefeated, saints

undefeated and saints are in position to run away with the afc south. last year with the turmoil, sean payton suspended and everything going on, the defense historically bad, they were still 7-9. bring peyton back, make the defense better the team will be a lot better. >> let's talk baseball for one second. we have one-game playoff after one-game playoff. so the texas rangers are in. >> right. >> rays are in for now. how does this play out? >> there's a playoff game to see who plays cleveland in the wild card game. get the sket schedule up there. that's the game tonight. losers goes home. winner goes on to play cleveland for the american league wild card for the right to play the red sox friday night. this is the best week in baseball. you got a game every night. >> and cleveland has won ten games in a row. >> i don't care who they play. everybody knocks the schedule saying they played a weak schedule. doesn't matter. they won the games.

>> mike florio -- i was a pirates fan when i was a kid and i still refuse to accept pittsburgh pirates in the postseason. >> you become pessimistic. >> great ballpark, great city, great club. probably -- >> not a great football team this year. >> one and out against the braves, but we'll see. >> we're rooting for them. tell you something katty asked me before the football -- >> show the picture too. >> show the picture. >> she said, is this the one with the oblong ball? she drew me -- >> yes. >> i was right. >> you nailed it. >> i nailed it. >> kind of like the -- >> that was great. >> i mean, i'm exhausted i must say. >> do you have a football squad? >> i'm from the bay area so we always rooted for the oakland raiders. my parents used to take us to the games and sort of cover our eyes. because there was a lot of thuggery. i stopped rooting for them and don't have a team. a woman without a team. >> on the other side of the bay in san francisco they have a lot of violence issues. i think they're both 2-2.

raiders are back. uncover your eyes. >> i'm all grown up now so i can take it. >> mike florio, great it see you. thank you so much. coming up next, chris christie unplugged. why the new jersey governor says he thinks most other politicians sound like the teacher in the peanuts comic strip. that and today's must-read opinion pages when we come back. ready to run your lines?

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i'll tell you what i think most american politics sound like and more importantly what i think citizens think. remember charlie brown's teacher? it all sounds the same. and you can't really understand what it is. no one says that about me. >> idiot, stupid, crazy.

these are all words that you've used. >> sure. >> to describe people. are these words that a person if your position of leadership position should be using? >> sure? >> you think so. >> absolutely. >> idiot. >> someone is an idiot they're an i yot. >> are you a bully? >> no, i'm not a bully. what i am is a fighter. >> what's the difference? >> i think a bully is abusive. and a fighter is somebody who's willing to mix it up to defend his or her point of view. >> you can see he's trying to soften his image heading into a potential presidential run. >> that is who he is. >> welcome back to "morning joe." the sup is coming up in washington, d.c. as we're just hours away from what looks like it will be a government shutdown. we got steve ratner's charts as promised in a moment. nicole, when you listen to that as a republican who likes winning national elections, or would like to start winning the white house, what do you think. >> i love him and the distinction.

i think it's an important one for him to draw between a fighter and someone who i think some people in the media and some of the liberals are trying to paint as someone who has issues containing and being polite enough. he's plenty polite enough for what's going on in this country. if you look where the republican party is right now, they do feel like they need someone to carry some of their frustrations with what the last six years have been like for republicans. people feel likes the president came in and rushed over the republicans in congress. someone like governor christie who speaks his mind, doesn't worry about -- doesn't waste any time trying to be politically correct or polite, he is exactly what the pearty needs and county needs. someone who says it like it is and doesn't polish things. >> the last day of the government's fiscal year. we're coming up on this midnight deadline. how will the shutdown fight impact spending and the deficit in. >> so here's one of the great ironies of this current fight

which is you've heard about obama care, you've heard about other things. you haven't heard anything about cutting the deficit. the republicans are not trying to cut the deficit at the moment. they're trying oddly enough to increase the deficit. the continuing resolution that they would pass would have spending be higher than the budget that they passed back in the spring. here's why. if you take a look at what's been happening and today is the last day of the fiscal year, see that deficit, these red bars here, have come down very -- has come down very sharply since 2009 when it hit its peak at $1.4 trillion. it's going to be down today when the books close at $642 billion, a drop of over $770 billion down. the blue lines at the top show you why or part of why this is happening. just because spending has been flat. spending which was -- went up in 2009 again because of the obama syst stimulus has been held flat and come down a little bit.

can't get my pen to draw a little bit, come down to $3.6 trillion. all of this has come out of discretionary spending. there's been no cuts in entitlements, no cuts in the mandatory programs. if you look at the effect of that on the economy as the deficit comes down it makes the economy grow less, contracts the economy. you've had a very dramatic effect, more than we've ever seen before. this shows the effect on gdp when the budget is more in a deficit position, when it's more -- less in a deficit position, even surplus position back in the day. what you can see again at the time of the obama stimulus you had a positive effect, from three percentage points on gdp. look where we are today it's a 1.5% negative which means 1.5 million jobs cost because the deficit is coming down. one other related point, you can buy insurance on the government default. it's part of the whole credit and derisktives market. if you look at what's happened

to the cost of that insurance over the past couple days literally you can see after -- this was the last budget crisis we had at the end of last year, went up to that level. you can see it spiking right here, came down a little on friday. if this goes on you'll see it continue to spike and raises the cost of the government's debt, loses confidence in america. not a good sign when it costs more to buy insurance on american's debt. it should be almost free. >> what's the bottom line if we reach -- sort of in many ways past this shutdown moment and look ahead to two weeks from now, the debt ceiling, if that moment passes what is the practical impact on the economy. >> i think the impact could be really almost disastrous. that could be like the fall of 2008 if you remember when government didn't pass t.a.r.p., markets went down 700 points. this is a -- we've crossed the shutdown bridge many times in the past as you know. we've vived it every time. we'll survive it this time. we've never passed the debt

default line before. if we do it this time the markets will truly conclude we don't know what we're doing. >> that's when people will start feeling it. interest rates will spike and people know they have a deficit. that has a real life impact. >> lee lan brothhman brothers c everything that happened will look like you just missed a car payment. >> saturd"saturday night live" star to take on obama care. that clip when we come back. it's delicious. so now we've turned her toffee into a business. my goal was to take an idea and make it happen. i'm janet long and i formed my toffee company through legalzoom. i never really thought i would make money doing what i love. [ robert ] we created legalzoom to help people start their business and launch their dreams. go to legalzoom.com today and make your business dream a reality. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side.

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coming up, senator chuck schumer says it's on speaker john boehner's shoulders to avoid a shutdown. up next, bob woodward and david axelrod join the conversation. more "morning joe" when we come back. [ male announcer ] pepcid® presents: the burns family bbq. guys, you took tums® a couple hours ago. why keep taking it if you know your heartburn keeps coming back? that's how it works. you take some tums®. if heartburn comes back, you take some more. that doesn't make any sense. it makes plenty of sense if you don't think about it! really, honey, why can't you just deal with it like everybody else? because i took a pepcid®. fine. debbie, you're my new favorite. [ male announcer ] break with tradition, take pepcid® complete. it works fast and lasts. get relief from your heartburn relief with pepcid® complete.

man: sometimes it's like we're still in college.

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>> there you go. i love that enthusiasm. >> because fou that i've got free health care i can get sick all the time. . >> i have this friend he got sick like cancer sick, but because there was an obama care he could afford the treatments so he was like backed into a corner, you know what i mean. >> and keep in mind, this man was a teacher with a family. >> he was. he was. so he did what any of us would have done. he started cooking meth. >> i think we can probably wrap this up. justin from new mexico, everybody. >> wait, wait wait. >> [ inaudible ]? >> no. >> aaron paul from "breaking bad" cameo on "snl." welcome back to "morning joe." beautiful sunrise over washington there. katty kay back on set. nicolle wallace, mark halperin, mike barnicle along with jeremy

peters on capitol hill and joining us from washington, pulitzer-prize winning associate editor of "the washington post" and author of "the price of politics" bob woodward and senior adviser to president obama, director of university of chicago's institute of politic and msnbc contributor david axelrod. guys, good morning. >> good morning. >> so the big question obviously on everyone's mind this morning, did you see the finale of "breaking bad"? let's cut right to it. >> i did. >> did you? >> yeah. >> don't give anything away. >> hey, bob, start with you on the shutdown, we'll get into some of the nuts and bolts over what's happening over the week and today. what do you make of the way washington is operating right now? >> it's a disaster. the new reporting on what happened last year on the fiscal cliff shows that speaker boehner's chief of staff mike summers declared we are now the

republican majority, primarily a blocking group. in other words, that's what we're going to do is stop things and you see that now and you were talking earlier about football, you can't win just having a defense stopping things. you've got to have some sort of positive plan and the tragedy in all of this, yes, maybe government shutdown is that the main issues that are before the country are not being addressed. there's no tax reform being discussed. there's no entitlement reform being discussed and the giant issue for millions of people out there is the unemployment problem is not being addressed. so all of these small things are occurring. if you -- i think there's a bailout point probably not this week but maybe in the next couple of weeks for speaker boehner. putting something on the floor

like he did in the fiscal cliff negotiations and getting as he did in that case where they actually raised taxes on the upper brackets, required about 170 democrats and 60 republicans and they passed the bill. so maybe that's what's going to happen. >> let's get people caught up to speed on where we are now. you can see the clock under 17 hours until midnight an a shutdown very early sunday morning the house approved a spending bill that includes a one-year delay of obama care and waves a controversial medical device tax. but the plan is as good as dead on arrival in the democrat controlled senate. senate majority leader harry reid made it clear he will not pass any plan that weakens the president's signature health care law. he opted to keep the senate in recess until 2:00 this afternoon, not bringing them back for the weekend. didn't want to bring them back early to take up that house bill. many can see the shutdown practically unavoidable.

here comes the blame game. >> there's only one side that is linking obama care with the shutdown of government. >> what you're seeing play out here is the end of what senator richard burr, republican of north carolina, say was the dumbest idea he had ever heard of. >> the president himself has acknowledged that the law is not ready. he's making exceptions for people, for unions, big business and other special interests. >> we have a system with the rich and powerful, those with connections to the obama administration get spared some of the burdens of obama care but those who are struggling, single moms, young people, people just trying to make it -- >> this is the old football strategy. when you get to where you want to be in a football game, you run out the clock. >> if we could have a great country album. >> i feel like o brother where art thou only o senate where art thou. >> i'm glad to invite to the microphone our distinguished majority leader in the senate,

harry reid. i'm sorry. harry's not here today. >> okay. stand-up comedy goes, it wasn't all that funny. but props and all, david axelrod. over the weekend everybody seems to be trying to say it's your fault, no your fault. but if there is a serious impact on the u.s. economy, either because of uncertainty or later on down the road we see a rate height with the debt ceiling or producing this feeling that the u.s. economy cannot be relied on why should i hire people and invest in my business, in the end the president risks getting some of the blame for this, doesn't he? >> yeah. i don't think that's what he should be most concerned about and i don't think that's what he is concerned about. you're right about the impacts of a shutdown. but if what you're saying, katty, is that he needs to respond or he should respond to this kind of tactic, i disagree with that. i think it would be a terrible precedent to say, every time you want to get something done in

the congress, you threaten to shut down the government, default on the federal debt, and, you know, what's the president to do, say take my arm this time and in two months when this cr runs out, take my leg. i think he has to draw a line here because if this becomes the norm, then you're right, people will never have confidence in the american economy or the soundness of america's currency. >> so david, following on that answer, i think everybody understands that there's an element of ideology here, clearly a rigid ideology on one side, forcing this issue repeatedly, it's not just now, it's repeatedly, nearly every day. off your assessment as a private citizen looking back at your time in the white house and your closeness to the white house today, how much of this do you think is rooted in personality? they don't like the president? >> well, i don't know how much, mike. i know the night of the inauguration, 15 of them, of the

leaders primarily in the house got together and essentially plotted as the reporting goes to how they could, you know, grind the administration to a halt. i think a lot of the people who were elected, the tea party republicans elected in 2010, were ideologues whose mission was not to stop obama care but to dismantle government. you saw the other day the head of the congressional budget office said if we defaulted on our debt that would be catastrophic for the country and the response from representative fleming, one of the tea party guys in the house, was, why are we always listening to the xhis? they're not always -- to the economists, they're not always right. when you get to that point you have a big problem. and the truth of the matter is, the president has good relationships with individual members of the congress.

i don't think, you know -- there's no doubt that there is as a group, it is a good political tactic for them with their base to filet him. but i don't think this is about personalities. i think it's about ideology. >> you studied speaker boehner, where do you think his head is at in terms of the president and his conference in how to be the key player to find a way to bridge a difference? >> i think his head is spinning. he really is at one of these very difficult moments where he's got to balance the forces and there are an array against him. one thing i agree with david axelrod about strongly, let's call it what it is, they are trying to blackmail the president and say look, we're going to shut down the government or default on our debt unless you -- we go back, rewind the clock, on obama care and delay it or somehow cut off

the funding. you can't govern that way. it will not work. it will be exposed. at the same time, i think if you go back and look at these negotiations that took place a couple of years ago or at the end of last year, the grand bargain as they call it, could have been done, they really got close, speaker boehner was offering some compromises, the president was offering some compromises, there's a moment which will go down in the history books where the president is saying on the telephone to speaker boehner, look, we're $150 billion, this is on a ten-year plan, we are $150 billion off, man, i don't get it. they should have closed that gap, both of them. one of the sad missed moments in all of this. >> so nicole, to david's point earlier, put yourself in the

shoes of the white house. president obama came out last week and said they act like they're doing me a favor by not shutting down the government. why would he negotiate with them? if he's holding a health care law that is law why would he give up the debt ceiling to chip into something he has? >> i think -- and i would put this back to david, isn't there a moment where the president has to be the president? and the movie "the american president" he sends back a crime bill because it has no potential of stopping crime. isn't there a moment the president has to stop the madness because it has no potential of doing any good for anyone in this country and you talked about president obama having relationships in congress, i'm not sure where they are but there were a lot of opportunities last week for the president to bolster senators in both parties who were calling for what he seems to want, which is to avoid a shutdown, but i just -- i can't figure out what the president wants. he's either incapable or

unwilling to leads they country out of this brink. he has the ability as the leader of the free world to extend a hand to the iranian leader. the iranians have done nothing to instill confidence yet there are senate republicans who have articulated what i think president obama wants and he doesn't seem to reach out a hand to any of them. >> you know why the iranian leader is extending his hand. the president painstakingly put in place withering sanctions that punished the iranian economy. that's why the leader is extending his hand. >> to stir our economy -- >> wait a second, nicole. you say when should the president -- when will he step up and be president when is the presidential moment? this is the presidential moment. if you submit to government by extortion, government by tantrum, where does it stop? if he compromises this time and as i say, cuts off an arm. what's to stop the guys from doing it again in two months and say give me a leg?

this is not the way to govern. >> but no one is debating that the republicans are imploding over an idiotic tactic. i don't disagree with that. but what i don't understand why is president obama lowering himself to that level and playing the same kind of brinksmanship that ted cruz is? >> i don't understand -- >> isn't he more like the senate republicans? >> i don't -- first of all you mention the senate republicans, i think it's worth noting this tactic didn't go forward in the senate. we had the cruz-aroma but the whole -- the tactic itself failed in the senate and it's in part because there are people who have been in dialog with the white house and people more reasonable in the senate, but tell me what you're suggesting here? what should the president do right now in response to this extortion racket over there? what should he do? what should his response be? i'm curious as to what your solution would be? what does being president entail in your view? >> listen, the presidential

opportunity to me seems to be an opportunity for the white house to strengthen the senate republicans who share his desire not to see the government shut down. and there have been senate republicans who have confronted ted cruz. he has a long standing relationship from what i understand from reporting from bob woodward and others with senator tom coburn. there seems to be enough of a desire in congress on both sides of the aisle for the government not to shut down and it seems like when president obama acts like a victim of one rogue republican senator, it seems to weaken the office of the president. >> i don't think -- >> can i get in here just for a moment because i think it's a good question. and there is something the president could be doing. he said he will not negotiate on the debt ceiling. a reasonable position. i will not be blackmailed he said. but he should be talking. they should be meeting, discussing this, because as i think steve ratner showed

earlier, the american economy is at stake and the president, if there is a downturn or a collapse or whatever could happen here that's bad, it's going to be on his head. the history books are going to say, we had an economic calamity in the presidency of barack obama. speaker boehner, indeed, is playing a role on this. go back to the great depression in the 1930s. i'll bet no one can name who was the speaker of the house at the time. henry thomas rainy. he's not in the history books. it's on the president's head. he's got to lead. he's got to talk. and the absence of discussion here, i think, is baffling element. >> jeremy, in your reporting on capitol hill, and in washington, do you see a path for negotiation that could save us from the prospect of serious

economic damage while protecting the president's signature legislation? >> i think the point that david raised earlier about hard lines is the essential one here. harry reid in the senate has drawn a very hard line, essentially saying my counter offer to house republicans is nothing. it's very hard to overstate how curious harry reid is right now with the tea party republicans. and on the house side, it's very hard to overstate how enthusiastic, how almost giddy republicans are over the idea of continuing to try to block, do whatever they can to chip away at obama care. and when you have two sides that are so far apart it's very hard to see a path forward. >> david axelrod, put on your analyst hat for a moment. i'll pause while you do. what's your sense of how the week will play out today through the end of the week? >> well, i would like to say that i see a bunch of fast-moving developments.

someone asked me what i was doing in washington today. i said i always like to go where the inaction is. but i don't see that. i think that -- you know, my sense is that we're going over, that the government's going to shut down and it's going to be shut down for a while, you know, and the real question is, whether we can reach a resolution before we get to the -- to the debt discussion because as steve ratner said, this is an inconvenience, but that is a potential catastrophe. so perhaps these things will meld and will come to some understanding before the debt ceiling happens. but it can't be at the point of a gun. bob says you shouldn't be negotiating but you should be talking. i'm sure there are informal talks going on. you can't -- i think it would be a dangerous thing for the president to submit to this. let me make one other point because i heard ted cruz on the obama care question talk about

he's fighting for the poor, working poor and the struggling people of america. his state there are 28% of the people who don't have health insurance. it's the worst in the country. so i don't know that they think that he's fighting for them. >> david, how can you -- if i may ask this, take a position that it's dangerous to talk? i mean you can talk and say look, this is not on the table. we're not negotiating about this. but the absence of communication, anyone who's been in a negotiation knows that you have to spend time, you have to listen in the end you get to the point where you realize your adversary, the person on the other side of the table is your best friend, because that's the person who can give you what you really want and have to have, but the absence of this, i think, is one of the problems here. >> bob, i think he -- my sense is that he would -- he's willing to have all the discussions you're talking about including

going back to the big discussions about how we deal with long-term debt, but he's not going to do it with a ticking time bomb, sitting on the table. the real question is, will john boehner walk into his caucus at some point here and say guys, this is nuts and we -- i'm not going to do this? and you guys can go and find yourself another speaker if you want. i'm not going to take the american economy over the side to make rush limbaugh and the tea party happy. the tradeoff is not equal. not for the country, not for the republican party. and i think if he does that, then it opens up the possibility of negotiations around the budget that are long overdo. but you can't do it at the point of a gun. >> he's never done -- he's done that before, david, you know. we've seen that with a number of pieces of legislation this year, but he's never done it with an issue that's this volatile and important to the republican base. for him to go back and say hey, guys, you know, we're going to give up on the issue that you

have so passionately and fervently fought for, i think is a very difficult thing for him to ask. >> david axelrod, bob woodward, jeremy peters, thanks so much. busy day, busy week in washington. still ahead the president's affordable care act kicks in tomorrow but will it be as big a mess as some critics say. sort through with dr. squeakzek emanuel. up next congressman matt salmon was there for the government shutdown in 1995 and says speaker john boehner's reputation is on the line with republicans if he does not stand firm against obama care. republican arizona congressman joins us next with chuck todd. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. [ man ] on december 17, 1903,

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sort through with dr. zeke you're watching "morning joe." sort through with dr. zeke you're watching "morning joe." quite frankly, we believe it's time for the president to get serious about balancing this

budget. perhaps it's been too much christmas chocolate or too much eggnog that the president has been drinking that he hasn't kept his word to balance the budget over the next seven years, using honest numbers. we've been making a list and checking in twist and we think that president deserves only one thing for this christmas, because he's not done his work. and that's a little coal, put it in the president's box this year. what? >> [ inaudible ]. >> that's charcoal. it's as close as we could get today. >> if you're just listening to the show on sirius xm that's a familiar voice john boehner. >> adorable. >> the fourth member during that period. >> 20 years later and he has hardly changed. >> few more pounds. >> not too many. he's adorable. >> looks great. >> during the partial government shutdown back then, that was

john boehner. congressman john boehner. now republican congressman matt salmon joins us from washington. chief white house correspondent, political director, host of "the daily rundown" chuck todd. good morning. congressman, you left the congress for a while, just came back. >> right. >> looks familiar, doesn't it? >> it feels like deja vu all over again as yogi berra would say. there are a lot of differences even though the dynamics were pretty intense back then, just as they are today, one of the big differences is that bill clinton, who was the president at the time, was actively engaged with our leadership. he was actively engaged with the congress in trying to avert a shutdown. and they were meeting literally every day. there were reports on the media, and this president hasn't been involved at all with the leadership or with the congress. i understand the speaker hasn't been contacted by the president in over a week. and you know, big difference. i think one other difference, if

the republicans in the senate who controlled the senate at the time even contemplated going awol during as we got up close to the shutdown, i believe that they would have been crewsy fide by the national media and by the folks out there, the voters out there. harry reid takes the senate home for a couple days during this crucial time. they could have used yesterday to address this issue and get it back to the house last night and we could have i think had some meaningful negotiations and possibly not been at this place where we're at right now. >> congressman, just in the clearest terms, the bill you sent over to the majority leader includes a one year delay for obama care, you call that a happy medium. i'm not sure the white house shares that view. what is it that you want from the president of the united states? the government shutdown is less than 17 hours away. in the clearest terms, what do you expect from him? >> well, let me just say this

first of all. during the president's tenure, we -- most of the jobs that have been created have been part-time jobses. we believe in our hearts that this is going to move us more toward a part-time economy. in my district, the community college has reclassified 1300 full-time employees to part-time status, 700 of those professors. we're seeing that happen all across america. we'd like to have a breather. the president himself has postponed large components of obama care and we'd like to postpone the entire law. it's not ready for prime time. i believe he knows it. most folks know it. we would like to get a postponement and like to work with the president. he's willing to postpone parts of it but we can't postpone parts of it. i don't think that's reasonable. i think we should work together to postpone this thing for a year and get it ready for prime time and then have that debate. >> steve ratner. >> congressman, first i think the parts that the president has proposed really the employer

mandate are very, very minor parts to this legislation, actually have very small impact on its overall effectiveness. secondly, the issue about part-time work the statistics don't show much effect. in fact, most of the effect of part-time work has been government furloughs over the last few months because of sequestration. let me get back to the point about the negotiations. you guys have said you want changes in obama care. the president has said, he's not changing obama care. it's been legislated. so what is the compromise that's imaginable when the president has said, this was passed, it was litigated, it's going into effect and i'm not neshing about obama care. >> the president has also said there may be issues on obama care, harry reid has said that can be debated but now is not the appropriate time. i'm asking the question if not now, then when? we've tried to debate this thing over the last year and a half, two years, and provide mechanisms to change or alter parts of obama care and it's

never been the appropriate time to debate so when is? >> congressman, nicolle wallace, i know you shutter at the frustration it's never mentioned there have been 21 laws that president has signed that actually changed pieces of obama care. it's not like president obama hasn't made changes to the law himself. as you said. but obviously the most efficient way for our party to change or replace obama care is to win elections. can you talk about how we as a party balance this fight and standing on our conservative principles with being able to galvanize support across the ideological spectrum and win national elections in two years and then in the presidential race? >> you know, i think that standing on principle, i think, communicates to the public every time that we're not going to be the same old go along, get along folks that have been in washington, d.c. before. i think the public is crying out for real principle leadership and being willing to actually

stand for something. this is an opportunity i believe to actually change some things in a very, very bad law that we believe will be very, very hurtful to individuals. not just businesses, but to individuals. we believe that with all of our hearts and we see -- we've seen the data. so we have a responsibility, i believe right now, to stand on principle. i honestly think -- i've heard from a ton of democrats over the last few weeks. it's really refreshing to see folks like you that are actually fighting for something that they believe in. rather than just capitulating time and time again as we've seen past congresses do. >> is there any line where you think we imperil our party and ability to communicate we are capable of governing? do you think there's a line we're in danger of crossing or we stand on principle and let the chips fall where they may? >> listen, i do not want to see us go into a government shutdown. we stayed through the weekend to try to make sure that doesn't

happen. and i wish i could say the same again about the senate democrats. but the fact is, i believe that right now is a very, very defining moment, not just in the republican party but i think in america's history. this is to me the single worst law that has happened in the last 40 years and if we can change this law, to try to make it better, then we have a responsibility to do so. >> chuck, to the congressman's point it's a complaint we've heard from republicans not just this week but over the last couple years that the president does not communicate not just with rank and file but with the speaker of the house. is that a fair criticism of the president, especially in this case? >> what the white house will argue back and congressman, let me ask you this question, why are you trying to extract concessions over a bill that funds the government anywhere from 45 to 75 days, depending on which bill we're talking about, the senate bill or house bill? this seems kind of absurd to try to extract major concessions

that are a year long -- long-term concessions for what is a very short-term funding bill which is why i think a lot of people are just sitting there going, what is going on here? why not, if you want to negotiate, then, you know, fund the government for another couple weeks and negotiate? >> would you feel better if we gave a year-long budget for a year in postponement of obama care? i personally would be willing to do that. i think that's a fair trade instead of just doing a temporary funding bill that's a three hp month cr i would be willing to do a year of it for a year postponement of obama care. >> you're not negotiating, right? that's not the position you are in. do you think it's kind of silly to be trying to do this over what is a 75-day funding measure and if you were in the president's shoes why would you negotiate when you guys are looking for major connections on a 75-day funding measure? >> if i was in the president's

place, i would look at this postponement of obama care as a gift in the mouth because once it goes on-line and we saw all of the problems with obama care and the problems it's causing with business, people's lives, government, it's going to i think cost the president dearly and i think that he ought to look at this as what it is, a gift horse in the mouth and work with us to try to postpone the thing and get it right. >> going back, answer that question about the 75-day funding bill. this is -- part of this, this is what seems ridiculous. >> well, again, i don't think -- and again i'm speaking for myself, but i don't see a problem longer term continuing resolution if the president is willing to work with us on postponing this bad law and trying to fix some things. if he's willing to do that, i think he will probably find a large number of folks on my side of the aisle that would work with him on that. all he has to do is reach out an

try to talk with us. >> if you accept as people in your party do this is effectively the law of the land, they recognize the white house is not going to row back on obama care, you talked about standing on principle and how important that is to your voters and to -- for the republican party to be seen as standing on principle. but isn't this just optics? th isn't this empty tactics? you're not going to change obama care. you are risking the health of the american economy over something that's simply a political tactic? >> you say the president is unwilling to negotiate on obama care, unwilling to roll back portions of obama care but he's already done that through executive order. >> and now the white house has drawn a line and said we're not going to negotiate on this and they aren't negotiating because they're not talking to anybody on capitol hill about the prose pect of rolling back further. >> rolling one branch of government that tactic might work but there are three branches of government and we have to work together. >> that involves compromise. >> the president has not reached out to anybody to compromise. >> and you're willing to

compromise but you just said you wanted to stand on principle on this one? >> actually, we already have compromised. we started out with a total defunding of obama care and moved to a year delay of obama care. we're not going to keep negotiating against ourselves especially when the president is not willing to come to the table. >> congressman, you're going to get back from majority leader harry reid a clean bill probably a couple hours before midnight. what will you do at that point in the house? >> i'm not the one making all those decisions. my feeling is that we should go back at them. we've given them a bill that actually funds the military so that the military pay doesn't have to suffer. i hope that they at least take care of that. knowing that this is probably moving, you know, in the direction of a shutdown. i hope that our folks stand stall. -- stand tall. and fight for the things that we

believe? >> let me ask you, chuck, how this plays out. not just the rest of today but this week and two weeks now, leading up to the debt ceiling debate? >> one thing i've learned, when there's time in the legislative clock don't assume anything. everybody is in, shutdown is inevitable, blah-blah-blah. you know what, it's very possible that boehner at the last minute puts in a one week continuing resolution, things like that, that avoids the shutdown before midnight tonight. anything is possible at this point. looks like we're headed to shutdown. what does it look like three days from now, four days from now. the way these things seem to work, the party that's most united that usually wins these standoffs. democrats, it is hard to find anybody that's willing -- that's breaking ranks, blind quotes you name it. on the republican side for as many conservatives that want to stick to their guns on this one, you have a growing number of other republicans who are saying, you know what, this isn't the fight to have.

>> we'll find out in the next few hours. congressman matt salmon of arizona, appreciate your time. >> thank you very much. >> chuck, we'll see you on "the daily rundown" 90 minutes from now. still ahead on "morning joe," president obama's historic call with the iranian president as israel warns not to be taken in by iran's new charm offensive. the deadliest fire for firefighters since 9/11, new answers to what may have contributed to the deaths of those 19 brave men in arizona this summer. we're back in a moment. [ taps baton ] [ dings ] ♪ [ male announcer ] every thought... every movement... ♪ ...carefully planned, coordinated and synchronized. ♪ performing together with a single, united purpose. ♪ that's what makes the world's leading airline...

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an extensive report sheds new light on how 19 firefighters died while battling the yarnell fire. the hot shots were surrounded and overcome and only one member survived. miguel al mcguire has the story. >> reporter: this radio transmissions are believed to be some of the final communications from the granite mountain hotshots, shortly afters this video was taken, 19 elite firefighters lost their lives in arizona. investigators now believe based on a three-month investigation, poorly programmed radios made communication a major problem. just before flames swept over the hotshots there was a

33-minute radio blackout. >> nothing will bring them home. >> reporter: julie ann and her four children lost andrew. >> that being my husband and a loved one for all of our families, i'm not okay with 30 minutes unaccounted for. >> reporter: the report says the hotshots were in a safe zone when, for unknown reasons, they descended into a valley when crews couldn't outrun fires spreading 12 miles an hour, they deployed emergency shelters, but temperatures exceeded 2,000 degrees. no one knows why the men headed into the valley. >> we don't know that information. we don't have it. that decision-making process went with those 19 men. >> reporter: when the hotshots were surrounded by flames, a dc 10 full of fire retardant was overhead but the air tanker never received the crew's location. michele parker says her son wade died with his brothers. >> they did everything they could. and they stayed together and they loved each other.

>> miguel almaguer reporting for us. coming up next, breaking down the historic phone call between president obama and president ru h rowhani of iran. more "morning joe" when we come back. you really love, what would you do?" ♪ [ woman ] i'd be a writer. [ man ] i'd be a baker. [ woman ] i wanna be a pie maker. [ man ] i wanna be a pilot. [ woman ] i'd be an architect. what if i told you someone could pay you

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welcome back to "morning joe." here with us now bbc north america bureau chief, paul, out with a new book "the new middle east, the world after the arab spring." good to have you with us this morning. >> thank you very much. >> i think this is as good a time as any to have katty's employee review. you are katty's boss. do i have that right? >> yeah. >> how is she doing around the office? >> she's doing okay. we'll see how she does in the next five, ten minutes. >> any human resource problems we should raise now? >> let's see how it goes. >> i told you to be on my side here. >> i'm asking important

questions. >> generosity. >> we love her. >> we do. >> i love her too. >> let it be on the record, we love her. >> she's doing this on her time, not your time, right? >> i'm double shifting. going back to do my bbc show this afternoon. let's talk about the news as it applies to your book. we'll talk more broadly about the book. the phone call, brief as it may have been but historic between president obama a few days ago and president rowhani of iran. how important was that moment? >> it was a big deal. think 30 years, there's been no communication at all on that level and it changes the game, it really does. that's why you've got benjamin netanyahu coming to see the president and he's worried. it changes the structure of the middle east. if iran and america start talking to each other that changes the game. the new middle east, the sectarian divide between the sunni and shia has been exacerbated by what's going on and a big battle going on between saudi arabia and iran and the saudis are really worried that this thank youi th

relations could change the middle east and weaken them as far as they're concerned in terms of the influence they have in the region. >> netanyahu was quick to implore president obama to be not sucked in by this charm offensive. is there reason to believe president rowhani and iran are different as it relates to the united states? >> the reality is the supreme leader takes the decision. rowhani wouldn't be allowed to stand for the elections unless given the okay. before him you had ahmadinejad who everyone thought was crazy but the supreme leader's plan. is rowhani reflecting the supreme leader's new view or another tactic to how they can delay and stall until they get a nuclear weapon and then it's game over. >> you write about america' role in the middle east and write george w. bush led america into iraq without a plan. barack obama kept out of syria without a plan. not acting is not passive. is america aware of the fact when it doesn't act the

consequence s can be as significant as when it does act. >> america was trying to get out of war, exhausted by afghanistan and iraq. when it saw syria begin to implode it wanted to stand back and see what happened and didn't want to own the mess in an election year. what happened was, when nothing happened from the western side, the gulf states began to fund their proxies. what began as a revolution for democracy, degenerated into war over god basically. you have the sunni and shia battling it out in syria. when arguing over god that becomes difficult to do. >> just to go back to iran for a second, paul. there's a feeling in the white house, great pride if you will, that the sanctions have led to this conversation. you've had the massive devaluation in real, the oil is cut off. they've been eliminated from the international banking system. m

and the white house led to a bit of progress. i wonder if you can concur with that view. >> you can never go into iran without america. i have been talking for years and they department have the capacity to do that. they can make take out the points, but they need america to destroy it. if you do that, that creates a series of new tensions and see things playing out with hezbollah and hamas. america was right to wait and see. the interesting thing in israel is they divided the base. the military in israel said sanctions can do the job. >> a lot of skeptics think he's a better skipper for iran for the supreme leader. is there evidence that there is action taken that would put them

on a different course than the one they have been in in the pursuit of a neck leer weapon? they really going for nuclear weapon or power? the thing is we are going for low bases. you couldn't find and many say a crazier world leader. he hasn't really changed the policy of the rejoem. he changed the tone and the question is does that reject the supreme leader. even al qaeda a kkuzed ahmadinejad. is it a sorting tactic. they talked about using negotiations when he was a negotiator himself. are they serious about it? they don't want to carry on being the bad man of the world. are they ready for change?

if they are, this could be a big moment. >> on the subject of your book, the new mideast, one of the principal questions asked at the time 2 1/2 years ago is what comes next. the revolution is well and good, what did democracy lock like in countri countries? >> after 30 or 40 years of dictatorship, it's hard from going to have someone make the decision for you to make them yourself. this is the biggest mistake. they had a nasty democracy and they killed it off. there is hope and there is a place where there is hope. it is quite hopeful if you stand back from the isolated incident of violence. there was a possibility from eastern europe. the things will steadily get back on an even keel.

>> lock how long it took. >> the new mideast, the world after the arab spring. things for keeping katy around. new york senator chuck schumer hours before a government shut down with no deal in sight. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] marie callender's knows all white meat chicken was made to be blanketed in golden breadcrumbs. with whipped mashed potatoes, topped with a thick homemade gravy. so she makes her country fried chicken to be eaten together. so they savor every last bite. marie callender's.

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>> coming up, it is the reason we are hours away from a government shut down. republicans deep dislike of obama care. the law that goes into effect tomorrow. that's next on "morning joe." customer erin swenson ordered shoes from us online but they didn't fit. customer's not happy, i'm not happy. sales go down, i'm not happy. merch comes back, i'm not happy. use ups. they make returns easy. unhappy customer becomes happy customer. then, repeat customer. easy returns, i'm happy. repeat customers, i'm happy. sales go up, i'm happy. i ordered another pair. i'm happy. (both) i'm happy. i'm happy. happy. happy. happy. happy.

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there is a time and place for everything and this is not that time or place. >> so far majority leader harry reid has told house of accept rentatives and the american people to jump in a lake. if he forces a government shut down, that will be a mistake. i hope he backs away from that ledge that he is pushing us towards. >> it's 8:00 on the east coast and 5:00 out west. back on set, katy kay and mark halpern, steve ratner and jeremy peters in washington. let's set the table. the house approved a spending bill that approved a-year delay of obama care. it's as good as dead-on arrival. they made it clear he will not pass any plan weakening the health care law. he opted to keep the senate in recess until 2:00 this afternoon

instead of bringing it back early to take up the house bill. many can see it practically unavoidable. >> there is only one side linking obama care with the shut down of government. >> you are seeing play out, senator richard burr ands en senator of north carolina had heard of. >> the president himself acknowledged the law is not ready. >> we have a system with the rich and powerful with connections to the obama administration. those who were struggling, single moms and young people who are just trying to make it -- >> this is the old football strategy. when you get to where you want to be in a football game, you run out the clock. >> if we can have a great country album, where art thou? >> i am glad to invite to the

microphone our distinguished majority leader in the senate harry reid. i'm sorry, harry is not here today. >> jeremy peters, help us walk through today. >> the senate will move quickly to dispense with the house bill and take a matter of minutes. the bill goes back to the house and will be stripped of republican policies like the one-year delay in obama care and the opt out for employers who don't want contraceptive coverage. at that point it's all in john boehner's hands. he has a difficult choice to make. he can put a bill on the floor that contains none of these policies which of course will enrange the conservative base. this was the issue that a lot of them campaigned on and put them in power in 2011.

more and more republicans are starting to ask him to do that. he's under a lost pressure from elements of the party to put a clean budget bill on the floor. now, if he doesn't do that, the house that seems most likely at this point will send him back a bill that has a couple other items in it. one could be a repeal of the medical device tax and another one could be a provision that makes members of congress have to pay for health care, but whether or not they satisfy the conservative base, i don't see that happening. they asked over and over to delay or repeal obama care and feel they compromised by giving into a-year delay rather than a full repeal. >> we have the weekend and it's not your fault. both want to blame the other. they are suggesting that we have been foolish and could go

anywhere near trying to shut down the government. they move the needle to all the republicans and shifting the plame on democrats? >> i don't think so, but it's not just moderate republicans who are warning against shutting down the government. you have credible conservative forces like tom coburn and senator corker. you have a divide between the legislature and those who want to politicize what they view as this pure desire for obama care. the party is not just breaking along party lines, but fracturing in its purpose. ted cruz has seen an opportunity to galvanize a lot of the same conservatives who were excited about sarah palin and burn the house down conservatism. ted cruz offered them something

more real that they can grab on to. a plan to shut down the government as a last stance for what he described as conservative principals. the party is divided among those who believe they were elected to govern. john boehner is in that category. that is the new and really the dwoit between the party. how that ends up will save everything as we move into the next primary process of the republican party. >> what has marcus done so far and what are they likely to do today? >>. >> the market will be down last week for the first time in a while. they are down overseas. the markets have had an attitude like they can solve last minute. we are not going to panic too much right now. we will talk later about the indicators at the market. the shut down itself i think the market will take. what the market is not going to take is if we get closer to

october 17th. the idea. i think you and everybody, the shut down is inevitable. it seems unimaginable at this point that they will come together. what worries me is a couple of things. the shut down will be worse because they have not passed a single appropriations bill. they will put all of the nonessential workers on furlough. a number of them shut down being less effective or damaging. what are the grounds for negotiation here? what will happen is the government shuts down and at some point there will be conversation and resolve this. they are so far apart right now, i don't believe the white house will do gag is symbolic about obama care. they have made that the signature issue and they put on

other stuff that some of it is more unpowerful in the white house. it's not a question of spending 25 billion or compromise on 22 1/2. it's far apart on fundamental issues. >> if you are watching in iowa or new hampshire this morning, what does the shut down mean to you? if it goes into effect, 825,000 federal employees would be furloughed. national parks would shut from the statue of liberty to the grand canyon and yosemite. with the agencies, more than 90% of staffers being nonessential will be forced to stay at home. a large portion of daily services will be unaffected. homeland security and law enforce 789. prisons and courts. mail delivery and air traffic also benefits like social security will keep coming through. new applications could be delayed.

>> mark halpern, that is the impact of what's going to happen at midnight. you were talking about and e-mailing around the president's role in all of this. the republicans forced him into this position. what should he be doing in your view? is it best to lay low? >> mostly laying low, but being very confrontational. not having private talks. there was reports he wanted to bring in the leadership and haihair hai hai hairy- harry reid will bring the republicans back. they will move public opinion more and force john baner to capitulate. it is not a bad strategy given that you do the voices in the house and the senate moving that direction. in a time when poll numbers are down and he needs a victory to get back momentum after a year

that has been tough, it's taken a big bet on the effect uponually reasonableness of the house of republicans. you don't see joe biden trying to form a deal and anyone else in the administration on capitol hill deal making authority and a chief of staff and treasury secretary. he is putting a lot of risk on a single strategy with no second chance. >> who would he even negotiate with? the idea of standing by mitch mcconnell who doesn't want to negotiate. you have to negotiate with the house. then you have boehner who doesn't speak for the caucus. it's like the old line of i want to talk to europe, who do i call? >> it's the question maybe i am too traditional, but seems like this is a big problem for the government. people in the jobs, mitch mcconnell. if he was invited to the white house, would he not go. would boehner not go. you have discussions looking for

a solution. shut down is likely. we agree that the congress can survive that, but this is a dress rehearsal where they are higher. did you get a partner? for that you have to do it. >> there is an opening. he's the president of the united states. he can look at the senate republicans who share his desire. we spent a lot of time. >> the republicans don't control the situation. >> you are talking aboutic maing a deal. they can influence their peers and they can be strengthened. the notion that president obama has no one to reach out to, this has been the excuse for six years and why president obama counts very few friends in congress. senator tom coburn as republican as they get and someone he knows. to say the president has no opportunity to call a republican senator and try. >> i agree about the senate

republicans. about 20 of them voted with the democrats last week. they are as unhappy as the rest of us are and you see them on the sound bytes. they confronted it. >> the notion that these are human beings. the notion that president obama couldn't try to lead his way out of this is ridiculous. he's the president of the united states. >> it's clear that the model for the next year and a half, you make deals with senate republicans and put pressure on them to say here's a bipartisan senate deal, you will have to do something. that puts more pressure than they have right now. >> how many people does ted cruz represent. >> he speaks for the passions of many, many people. i can't tell you how many, but he has -- i would predict he will shoot to the top of every poll of republicans in all the early primaries.

i have been giving them hope that they will stand up to this white house. he has a lot of supporters. they are for vent and excited. based on the ecochamber of plugs. >> they are concerned they are talking only to themselves. the last shut down in 1996, you think about a 1996, the report was an e-mail newsletter that got sent out to a handful of people. fox news was a year away from launching. now the right has this huge media megaphone and they are using it to their advantage.

they feel that this emboldens people into fielding that they have a much larger following than they do. it's a very for vent base, but whether or not it's as many people as ted and his followers would like to believe, i don't know that that's the case. >> obviously bill clinton was president the last time there was a shut down in 1995. his advice to president obama, it's time to call republicans's bluff. >> there is nothing to negotiate with. it's the law and we are opening the enrollment on october 1st. this is the house republicans and the tea party people think we don't want to negotiate with the democrats. we want to dictate over the senate and the house democrats, over the speaker of the house of our own party and over the president, we insist on

dictating the course. >> you have to stand up to that no matter what the consequences. >> i do. >> republicans are begging for americans to fail. chris christie known for reaching across the aisle to democrats, he said they were coming to an impasse whose only conclusion is to be a shut down. >> there has to be a solution other than that. i don't think we should be doing that. to be fair, i don't think you hear responsible republicans advocating a shut down. that's my definition of failure. you have to work it out. >> you agree with that? >> absolutely. he made the personality point. there a lot of republicans that privately and publicly said what governor christie said. this will be the next debate in the republican party. >> will the government shut down hurt an already fragile economic

recovery? we will look at today's markets and will tomorrow's debut of obama care be as bad as republicans are predicting. zeke emmanuel and ron johnson join us to debate that. next, chuck schumer of new york joins us. if first we have a look at the forecast. >> for so many of us, it was another great fall weekend. the pacific northwest had the worst weather conditions. this was a strong storm for this time of year. the rainfall was off the charts. they received to eight inches of rain in seattle and also in portland. the wind with over 100,000 people without power. these are not normal. the leaves on the trees in the northwest. power companies were out there and you can see they have their work cut out for them. that storm went onshore up here into vancouver island. a lot of rain and the high winds of moving out.

into the northern rockies. we are talking some areas could have wind gusts up to 80 miles per hour. there is a lot of great weather out there. no problems from much of the east coast all the way back to the ohio valley. dry conditions. you know it's good when you can't remember the last time it rained. one of those is washington, d.c. look at the sunshine. going down on the green leaves. not for long. you are watching "morning joe."

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. >> you don't even find the people that voted with you on this. i am focusing on results. your goal and results. where have you moved anything? >> the facts are becoming more and more clear that obama care is not working. every day that is more clear. union after another is saying let me out. the only people who are not listening are the career politicians in washington. >> he has to make sure the senator is here from new york. chuck schumer and steve ratner back with me at the table. >> i still hold out a small hope that the republicans will come

to their senses and the mainstream republicans will say enough already. every hour you hear new people, they are either saying put it on the floor and i will vote for it or put it on the floor and we know it will pass. everyone assume fist they put a clean government funding resolution on the floor, it will pass. so the question is does speaker boehner need to engage in something like the ancient practice or sacrifice for the right wing gods. we have to sacrifice the economy and help for million was middle class people. i was at a street fair recently and people came over to me and thought i'm worried i will not get my paycheck. a veteran or highway worker on a federal project. a federal government worker. it's real people with real lives at stake.

and just to sacrifice them to the right wing gots, there is a chance, i wouldn't say a majority, but that they will come to their senses before midnight tonight. this is terrible. >> potentially cataclysmic. >> correct. that's the point here. people say why don't you negotiate and give them a little something. if you negotiate this type of extortion, then they sisee, the strategy worked. we didn't get much, but they use it on the debt ceiling that is far more devastating to the econo economy. we are dealing with the principal. you don't say i will shut down the government and not extent the faith in credit unless i get my way. if ted is right that the people don't like health care, they replace it. there will be the 2014 election

and also be legislative opportunities in the senate. ted cruz can bring up all the views. i think he's afraid his wrong. the only way to build movement is by asking for something so unreasonable and harmful he can't. >> don't negotiate, don't give anything, hang tough, make the republicans fold on this issue and then on the debt ceiling that then requires speaker boehner to violate the rule and come with some of the republicans and come with the democrats. he won't get the majority with the republicans i don't think. >> the debt ceiling he will see pressure on. >> you are saying don't compromise. >> you can't. we compromise all the time, but not with this kind of extortion. with this kind of idea that we

will mess up everything. we have the power to do that. they don't have the power, but speaker boehner gives them the power. one interesting thing. look at the difference between connell and boehner. he's in a more difficult situation than boehner. he as the primary with the tea party. he didn't say no, i wouldn't expect that. at the very least, he rejected cruz's notion. why can't boehner have the same bit of courage? he knows what he has it do. my opinion and everyone said he's a nice guy and everyone knows deep down when he's on the golf course, he know what is this right wing is like. if he doesn't, it's going to happen again and again. the same as our situation. if you give in to the small bands, it will be worse with worse consequences.

we then government funding is only two or three months and make it worse again. you cannot keep governing like this. the public is on our side. if we stand up popefully before midnight, but certainly shortly after midnight if god forbid the government has to shut down for a little bit, the republicans will come to their senses. >> you will be right that the public is on your side. the new cnn poll said congressional opinions will get 46% of the blame, president obama will get 36% of the blame, 13%. >> people understand. this is so obvious what they are doing. when ted cruz becomes the face of the republican party and you have so many republicans rejecting him, those numbers will go above 50 to 55% tonight or tomorrow. >> this is the damage, the

potential damage. >> sure, but the republicans are doing what you so eloquently described. what you said you are doing. they are standing on principal and drawing a line. they have a hard time drawing a distinction. you guys have won elections and obama care was on the ballot. fair enough. i believe that thank you are there to represent your constituents. is it in their interest no the to give republicans anything to get something good done some. >> if this were the debt ceiling and a long-term real funding resolution of the congress and that was that, yeah. i would argue that maybe we could work out something. it's not. it is extortion. not just compromise. they are not saying let's meet in the middle. >> they are saying that. they passed with a delay. many democrats will say delaying

obama care. >> they are compromising because they are not for eliminating, but delaying it. instead of chopping off both of your arounds, we will chop off only one. great. holding the middle class people at risk and saying you are good guys, we won't do that unless we get our way. that's different than anything before. there have been debates, but nobody -- >> no, we had 17 shutdowns over 30 years and many precipitated with the democrats. why is that different than in this case the republicans are using this to try to get something done they want to have happen? >> because the fight there was on government funding. >> not always. abortion, all this stuff.

>> those things were not -- you look at the market and you look at people's concerns and you look at the consequences of what they are doing here. it is far different than a dispute that couldn't be resolved over a small issue not related to the economy. it's hugely different. i heard snow say the other day obama voted against the debt ceiling, but not unless i get my way on everything or the most major issues i'm going to shut the government down or not going to renew the full faith in credit. the kind of extortion we are seeing is total low different than the past. totally. >> wouldn't it be easier with ted or the tea party republican in the house to say let obama care be implemented. if it is the catastrophe that they outlined, it would close on its own and then say let's get rid of it. >> what they are worried about

is if it goes into effect, it will either work and one other thing will happen. you might have people come up to you and say on october 1st, i will lose my health care. who gives it to you? my employer. i heard if obama care passes, i lose my health care. >> it is true that small business owners when they see this law go into effect will feel the pain and suddenly be able to articulate what republicans have been warning about. this strain and burden on the economy increases and provides incentive for people. >> the flexibility. >> that's why it's so crazy. you sign 21 changes into law to obama care and he won't delay

it. >> that's not repeal obama care. that is not a delay. that is sitting down -- if they were to come and say we are not shutting the government down, but there were problems with small business. let's try to work something out. they have an open forum. unless you shut down the government, we will shut down the government unless we get our way. no compromise. nothing. if you do it once, it gets worse and worse. >> a quick question. the government shuts down. tsa at the airport. 850,000 people don't get paid. you get paid. where is the equity? >> the bottom line is that the constitution said if it's essential services, we get paid. the bottom line is if people say we shouldn't get paid, the real harm is to the people.

that's what i feel. i see it "the new yorker"s i meet. there people and workers and veterans and highway workers. they are today going to work wondering if they will get their paycheck and they have a family to feed. it's outrageous that this is being done. >> at last the debt increase and you will get senator johnson. senator schumer. the shut down on the markets, apple has been the most dominant brand in the world. business before the bell when he come back. my customers can shop around-- see who does good work and compare costs. it doesn't usually work that way with health care. but with unitedhealthcare, i get information on quality rated doctors, treatment options and estimates for how much i'll pay.

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. michelle, markets, watching the government shut down business, how are they responding? >> the market looks like it will open weaker today not just because of the potential shut down, but also the italian government. burlesconi talked a lot of drama over there. that they are on the verge of failure between the u.s. andity lye with a lot of uncertainty. let's see how it goes to the

close if there is any in washington. it looks like we will be getting documentation this week from twitter that would tell us when they are going to go basketball. maybe late october or early november. also a lot of young people, apple has done every year in an advertising firm is the number one brand in the world. the first time that coca-cola is not the number one brand in the world. it has fallen behind both apple and doing about theal shot up to the top based on a number of things and the value that you create. the shareholders and advertising and et cetera, etc. and finally coca tolla. >> if the markets shut down, this is worse.

>> this is a mild reaction and it's closer to happen. this is the calm before the storm. >> up next, the reason we are hours away from the first government shut down since 1995. can they stop obama care that goes into effect tomorrow. ron johnson will join us next. we will find out if it's working or not. as your life changes, fidelity is there for your personal economy, helping you readjust along the way, refocus as careers change and kids head off to college, and revisit your investments as retirement gets closer. wherever you are today, fidelity's guidance can help you fine-tune your personal economy. start today with a free

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>> i am psyched for obama care! >> there you go. i love that enthusiasm. >> now that i have free health care, i can get sick all the

time. >> you got sick, but cancer sick. with obama care, he couldn't afford the treatment so he was like backed into a corner. you know what i mean? >> and keep in mind this man was a teacher with a family. >> right, right. he did what any of us would have done. he started cooking meth. >> i think we can probably wrap this up. jeff from new mexico, everybody. >> snl's breaking bad and obama care. from washington, former white house adviser for health policy invited for global initiative. dr. zeke emmanuel and capitol hill. the wisconsin senator, you ran eveningively on a mission to do away with obama care. when you look at the latest poll

numbers suggesting that if your party is going to get the blame, if the government shuts down, what's your advice? >> first of all, i'm a manufacturer. i look at the root cause of the problem. the reason we are at this point is because the democrated jammed through on a 100% partisan basis a reform. they didn't try to get bipartisan basis. come on. please. harry reid had to pass a bill in over two years. they are going to swap this thing away. we should have swatted this bill away harry reid said. as soon as they passed it, they give him time. i don't want to shut down. the white house is trying to work on this enormous thing.

the root cause of the problem is this is an incredibly partisan bill. we are dealing with that right now. i don't care. >> senator, let's go back to that. >> now you can talk. >> we ran an election, president obama versus mccain in 2008. obama won. we worked for 14 months to get bipartisan support and nine months until september 2009 where senator bacchus was working with senators grassley and others. we had one word from the republicans. yes. we weren't going to play. then we went it alone. we had a 2012 election on obama care. obama won. the country said over and over we are going to support the reform. the republicans have never given an alternative that controls cost to everyone in the country.

it improves quality. we have obama care and have the o fordable care act and it goes into law. what you are worried about is people are not going to like it. it will solve the problem of access and cost. that's why we have all this rhetoric. >> that's not true. since the health care passed, 3 1/2 yores have gone by and this is ready for prime time. >> wait a second. he is acknowledging lots of things. >> delaying the income verification part of this. i realize you are a smart guy. i don't think you know how to take over and do it well. that's the reason i'm opposed to this thing. this will do great harm to health care and bankrupt further. that's why i'm opposed to this thing and republicans put out a number of alternatives. a lot of things you are saying is each the unions are demanding change and calling for the

repeal. this is not ready for prime time. we should do the responsible thing and why don't we delay it a year? >> you just said in the aspect of the affordable care act is an assault on personal freedom. which part of my personal freedom -- >> the advisory board is going to ration care. president obama said -- >> ration care? >> that is not true. tens of thousands of americans are losing the health care they did like. there so many broken promises on this thing. that is what's happening here. by the way, hoe has no authority to grant congress and members of staff special treatment under this law as well. that is something we definitely didn't get. >> let's go back to the independent advisory board. there is no reason for it. we had a slow down in inflation and that board is not going to meet. it's certainly not entitled.

>> and the comfort. >> the law said they cannot reduce benefits. the second thing we need to say is obama care has already done a lot of good to million was children who are still on their parents's health care plan and getting coverage. the seniors who had the donut hole. >> that's not something we agree on. we didn't need to pass to grand that privilege. >> if we don't have a mandate and have everyone in the system, we cannot get rid of insurance companies excluding people or charging outrageous bills for preexisting conditions. that's the only way to get all of those things and the republicans never had a plan or alternatives. senator cruz -- >> dr. tom price, there all kinds of proposals out there. >> can you respond to the two criticisms about the state of affairs. is the idea that employers are

dropping health care as obama comes in and they are coming from full time to part-time. you hear a lot about this from republicans. you want to give us your point of view on that? >> on the second, employers dropping to part-time, there have been a number of different federal reserves and all of them contaddict that claim. they show slightly more part-time people than we have are historically because of the recession and the hiring back being part-time has nothing to do with obama care. i asked a number of senators and a number of republicans who named this, name me ten couples who have gone to part-time. i never got a list of ten. the second thing about employers cutting back. we have more than five million employers in this country. you have wall greens that is creating a private eh change and u.p.s. is saying okay, if your

spouse has insurance, your spouse's employer ought to cover her. that seems like a responsibility to me. we are not going it see, i think, a large shifting into the public exchange. even if we are, at least now we have a way for everyone to get coverage and the employers who do that are going to have to pay a penalty and that would suggest that they are nottive welling up to their responsibility. we have a system that provides people an opportunity to get coverage. that is a freedom that the republicans think people should have. >> i agree with you, but especially with obama care being the root of the effect that brought us to this point today. how do we as a republican party get back to our policy objections with the law. you hear stories of problems from coast to coast and away from the coverage of the divides

in our party over ted cruz's tactic. >> i was working with the white house to come to grips with that. i was working with house members before we left for the break. you can make that point. at this point in time, my suggestion was that the house has got enough advice from senators. i would like to see the budget control act that let's face it, president obama signed that bill into law. 45 democrats formed for it. i want to see a rejection of that ruling without legal authority that gives special treatment. nicole, millions of americans will lose health coverage because of obama care. members of staff are part of that. they are the only people because of president obama's ruling that will get their employer to subsidize that their insurance changes. i would like to see the house attached to that rejection.

we should repeal the tax. senators voted against that and that stopped investment. that is shipping jobs overseas. we sought to start this mapping and the most damaging aspects of the law. we have to hound the american people. i don't want to harm the economy, i don't care who is in the white house. this is what senator harry reid should have done early to vote on this thing. this process is going to have to play out. obviously senator harry reid is looking at the polls and saying they have an advantage. he is bringing people back to 2:00 today. that's highly irresponsible. >> we will have to leave it there. this conversation will carry on. senator ron johnson and zeke emmanuel, keep it up on "morning joe." we'll be right back. ♪

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>> who speaker boehner can learn from them. we are back in a moment. >> for those of you traveling, the wind and rain storm in the pacific northwest. we will see a lot of sunshine in

areas like boston and new york city. it will be cool. 64 degrees for the high. partly cloudy with a high of 76. partly cloudy skies.

we have reached a consensus as to what we learned as a group. it is this. thinking and talking about breaking bad the last series. the last element of the series last night is far more interesting than thinking or talking about a government shut down. chuck todd is up next. take it away. >> midnight madness, washington style. 15 hours left to dodge a government shut down. don't count out congress left. the only really reliable thing is that a last minute deal that everybody hates. also this morning president obama goes down with prime minister benjamin netanyahu in about an hour. topic one,