we have reached a consensus as to what we learned as a group. it is this. thinking and talking about breaking bad the last series. the last element of the series last night is far more interesting than thinking or talking about a government shut down. chuck todd is up next. take it away. >> midnight madness, washington style. 15 hours left to dodge a government shut down. don't count out congress left. the only really reliable thing is that a last minute deal that everybody hates. also this morning president obama goes down with prime minister benjamin netanyahu in about an hour. topic one, two, and three is

sure to be about the chat with iran's new president. could this be a turning point in the mideast. plus, virginia voters have one less governor. our guests hope that frustration with both parties can help him historically have hope in this state. we will talk to libertarians. good morning from washington, it's minute, september 30th. this is "the daily rundown." let's get to the first reads of the morning. here we go. washington is marching relentlessly towards the first shut down in 17 years. while a shut down seems likely, they will definitely close their doors at midnight. they will watch from crisis to crisis. the question is simple. what is john boehner willing to do at the 11th hour. then in 15 hours more than 800,000 federal workers will be

furloughed. national parks will be closed. veterans can see a lot of benefits impacted. a shut down will hurt what a weak economic recovery. after republicans vieted on a two-month spending bill that ties government funding to ia one had of year delay of the president's health care law. that includes the repeal of the medical device tax. a provision that allows them to opt out. lawmakers increasingly view a shut down as probable, the house passed a bill that would guarantee soldiers are paid even if the government shuts doors. congress really cares about that because during a shut down, congress gets paid. before the vote, harry reid promised democrats would reject any of the health care provisions added when the senate returns at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon. the senate spokesman said

republicans will be faced with the same choice they have always faced. putting the funding bill on the floor and leting it pass or force a republican government shut down. at some point probably around dinnertime, they will send the same clean funding bill back to the house. what does speaker boehner do then? house majority kenneth carthy said they are considering an 11th hour plan. >> they will send them not to shut the government down, but to fund it. they will have a few options there for the senate to lock at again? >> what are the options? boehner has three options. one, he buys time by sending a clean funding bill for a week or two or less. he sends back something the senate might be able to pass. both ruled out attaching going it, but a repeal of the tax is potential low something that a

majority might say let it go, we are against it anyway. he sends something he knows they will reject to prove to the base he is not ready to cave. house republicans acknowledge boehner would have the votes to pass the clean funding bill stripped of the health care provision fist he put it on the house floor. you willing to vote for a continued resolution that comes back that does not delay obama care some. >> i am not, but some are willing to do that. >> it's a growing group as far as the folks he was referring to who think a government shut down is bad politics. some are asking why pick a fight you can't win. tom coal who you will hear from in a few minutes said we will fold like hot cakes. you do not take a hostage you are not going to for sure shoot. my apologies if are that.

susan poll ins called it a strategy that cannot possibly work. pennsylvania congressman said it's time to govern. i don't intend to support it at this point. peter king, i don't want to under cut boehner, but i will not let the government shut down. some of the house members you heard from come from blue or swing districts. anxiety among republicans is growing. congressman reed told the times the concern is palpable. tea party-backed republicans are warning leaders if boehner tries to move a clean bill, there will be a revolt. there have been a lot more attention to blaming than searching if are a solution. >> the president is driving a government shut down. he wants it because he wants the checkbook and wants control. >> we are not going to keep negotiating against ourselves when the president is not

willing to come to the table. >> if harry reid forces a shut down, that will be a mistake. i hope that backs away. >> this is the old football strategy. when you get to where you want to be in a football game, you run out the clock. >> rather than trying to talk down more conservative members of the conference, boehner on sunday called the decision to wait until monday afternoon an act of breathtaking arrogance by the senate leadership. he tweeted support for members of the conference that were rallying against the senate on capitol hill. there were no republicans standing with the guys. president obama met with the seniors sunday. white house aides say they don't plan on negotiating over anything that is not clean, especially a temporary two or three-month measure. we will see. the administration's rational is this. a continuing resolution that

funds the government for just that small period of time is not worth making concessions for. for every day that the government shuts down, it costs you extra money. 40 to $80 billion for every single day that the government is shut down. one more irony, even if the government shuts down at midnight, enrollment for health exchanges will open tomorrow. the health care law will continue to be implemented because the funs are not dependent on the congressional budget process. >> joining me now, republican congressman from oklahoma tom cole. let me ask you the question. is it inevitable that a shut down will happen at midnight? >> oklahoma beat notre dame on saturday so i know miracles are possible. i remain optimistic we can avoid this and we will work to try to find a manner to do that.

>> by putting it next to the work miracle, that makes you think it's a long shot. do you not see the possibility that ek spooer boehner will decide to put a clean-week or two-week or one-month budget funding bill on the floor tonight and delay this for a while? >> i think the speaker is waiting to see what the senate is going to do. we think we know, but we did put a two-part process in front of them. it's a popular bill over there and let's see if they send it all back. if they do, he has a variety of options with part of them. is effectively a short-term that merges this battle over government shut down with the debt ceiling. that's where i thought we were always going to be anyway. there is going to be a larger negotiation here. this is not a once and forever deal. this is not two or weeks down the road.

>> politically, anybody who thinks this is not high risk is not playing with a full deck. it's extraordinarily high risk for not much gain. you i take it are from the camp that a shut down will hurt the republican party? >> i do. i think it's going to hurt the american people. we can spend a lot of time congress pointing, but it doesn't matter if you are one of the people put out of the work or one of the people who is inconvenienced. there will be tens of millions of them. i never have been an advocate. we do not want to shut down the government. every bill we put on the floor has kept the government going. the democrats and the senate are more willing to go there. lit c politically that can be to their advantage. >>. >> you are saying you are not interested, but you passed a bill that tells the president that bill you fought so hard to

pass called health care, we so don't believe in it we are saying we will keep the government open only if you get rid of it or delay it which by the way the doors open tomorrow. that seems irrational. >> i don't think it's an irrational position, but it's a strong position. we moved and the medical device tax is something that democrats have said they are in favor of repealing. the majority of them are on record. they can take part of this and send it being back. that's because they are looking down the road. the president of the united states was not willing to raise the debt ceiling when george bush was president and now he's asking us to do it. a lot of people will be interesting, but not unless they do something about the deficit. whether it's this government shut down or that government's default, that's the real issue in front of them. >> one of the things i never

understood is why you believe you can extract the session based on funding the government for 75 days. >> i think that's a fair point. we are not trying to extract long-term. we are honestly looking for a larger negotiation. that's where i think we are headed. that's what the speaker consistently wanted to do. the president said he is willing to negotiate over the budget, but not over the debt ceiling. i am not sure what that means. to me they are in the same. we will see in a few weeks. >> why not then? correct me if i'm wrong. you put a clone budget funding bill through november 15th or december 15th. pick your number. it probably passes with a fairly strong majority in the house if it were put on the floor. you count both. >> that's a fair read. again, we will see where we go. the democrats said they won't

negotiate over anything. there have been discussions and the president is awol and harry reid thinks he will use it to break the republican party. it's political on both sides. they are playing for high stakes. >> tom cole from oklahoma. i feel like i get straight talk from you. >> you bet. >> now let's hear from the other side. as we told you, a shut down can mean furloughs for 150,000 federal workers in virginia alone to delay benefit payments from 800,000 veterans in just virginia. a government shut down costs the federal government 40 to $80 million. that's each day to cost taxpayers for every day the government is shut down. jerry conley of virginia who is just out of washington for

employees and general contractors. good morning, sir. >> good morning. >> you are at all -- assuming the government does shut down, what are provisions that you think you think can be passed by the house and the senate to protect. you have the military pay issue and what else would you try to do while the whole shut down negotiation takes place. >> one has to remember this shut down unlike the one 17 years ago will be comprehensive. we have not passed a single appropriations bill. that's very different. >> that's a partial shut down. about half the government. >> this time it's 100%. where to begin. >> the military said one thing and you think another. >> social security. if you are signing up because you just became eligible. that will go at a backlog.

>> if you get social security, you will get your check. >> if you don't, you get a background. >> americans are signing up for ben vits and veterans and social security and met care. all of that will be in the backlog. >> it seems hike you have to deal with both sides pulling at you. at some point speaker boehner will need something other than clean. what do you get? do you give him the medical device tax and saving face measure? do you give him the idea that members are treated the same as everybody else? >> i'm all for members being treated like everybody else. what is being proposed, to make sure they are not treated like everybody else. we would get zero on the staff likewise. that's not like everybody else in america.

but look, i'm open to a reasonable dialogue, but i'm not open to having somebody put a gun at my head and being told take this or else. that's what the republicans had done. it's like mass psychosis has taken over the republican caucus and holding not just democrats hostage, but the entire country hostage in the funding of the government. >> do you believe there is a majority of republicans who don't want to do the strategy or do you think a majority of the house republicans are for the strategy of sticking to their guns on health care? >> a lot of this is playing to their base. there reasonable voices republican the republican caucus who understand how powerless the strategy can turn out to be. some say i am going to support a clean cr.

then it will be a moment of truth. will we amend it knowing that that is shutting down the government. we declare victory. the republicans have two victories. the lower number and secondly the passage of the protect the military pay bill. >> what do you want the president to do? >> i think the president needs to continue to explain to the american people what the stakes are and why this is an important fight. >> do you think he should bring people to the white house or no? >> he tried everything possible to reach out to the republicans in his tenure in the white house and they have rebutted him at every turn. at this point i think he is right to say we are not going to allow anybody to hold the american people and the american government hostage.

>> all right. we have to leave it there. thank you, sir. more on the potential wide ranging impact of a shut down including ways you may not be planning for. first a lock ahead at the politics planner. the prime minister of israel is coming to town.

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>> shutting down the government may seem like a game to many in washington, but it has real life consequences. how would a shut down affect everything from the u.s. mail to things in museums to issues having to do with social security. plus the pressure is on. as far as speaker boehner. our gaggle will weigh in on the

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nothing says, "i'm happy to see you too," like a milk-bone biscuit. ♪ say it with milk-bone. . if there is a government shut down, you are going to get your mail, but you will get kicked out of the parks and your passport application will be delayed. our team is covering some of the places that can really feel the pinch if congress and the president can't work out a deal. craig melvin is where military pay could be an issue. think ious. craig? >> here in southern jersey, chuck todd, 6700 civilian

employees come through the gates every day. many were forced to take six days off this summer. they were furloughed because of the automatic cuts known as sequester. they are being told you know what, we may not need krour services tomorrow as well. commanders here at the base right now are trying to figure out who is essential and who is not. we hope have that coming up later in the day. we will tell people those who are responsible for the positions they will have to come to work. everyone else, the activities and operations will cease if the government shuts down. the commanders are already planning for what they are describing as an orderly shut down. that's the latest from here in southern new jersey. at the statue of liberty.

>> about 360 national park sites. lady liberty may be very lonely here in new york harbor. that is because that will shut down. much like what craig was saying, the essential employees would be kept on staff like firefighting and security just in case, but otherwise there will be a big closed sign there. that means anybody who is making a pilgrimage to new york city to see lady liberty, the number one tourist destination will be turned away. if you come here as a child, the first time you see lady liberty, what an impression that makes. that will have to be rescheduled for them. one thing i can tell you, after work you decide you want to go to the national zoo, you won't get into the zoo, but at least

the animals and all the care takers will be keeping that running. only the bare bones essentials. let's go to my colleagues. john, to you. >> neither rain or sleet or government shut down is going to stop the u.s. mail. the post office will keep working because they are funded from a difference source. one thing that keeps coming in is social security funded by permanent law. if you go to apply for a passport or try to renew, that will be delayed ask they will be on furlough. federal courts will remain open and they have enough money on hand for at least 15 days or about ten business days to keep paying juror fees. after that, jury fees will continue. you have to show up, but you are going to be paid late.

chuck? >> you have been a veteran covering many shut down crisis. let's bring in the monday gaggle. joining me now, editor at the grio and "the washington post" and "usa today." susan, i feel like you and i are -- here we go again. i think we heard them make the point when he said republicans had a stronger hand in 1995. the president at the time was in a weaker position and republicans still got slaughtered in the political fight. democrats were about to win the house with the fund-raising scandal. this ratcheted that back. the entire political landscape and republicans turned upside down. how do they think they will win this? >> i remember that and the white house was not convinced they would win the politics. they were not nervous about it and they won it like you

wouldn't believe. that's what people like john boehner remembers. he was there in the house during that last shut down. >> they have aces and kings in their hands. this is twos and threes. >> somebody like a tom cole who interviewed earlier on your show, maybe there is an exit ramp that john boehner can use before tomorrow morning. they can do it tomorrow morning and it would be already. to avoid a government shut down or at least delay the issue. he talked about mixing a big deal over the debt ceiling over a couple of weeks. maybe that's a possibility. >> you would assume that. some parts were squeamish over the weekend. guess what. there were shut down related e-mails all over the place and it was bipartisan. republican mike lee who will put up various ones. they are not going to win the fight. i need your help right now.

they sent out an e-mail alert for the republican party. organizing for action, the political arm sent out a fund-raising thing. ready for hillary, the super pact did the same thing. obviously more democrats off of this because they think this is the winner. the fund-raising, it creeped me out. you guys are going to shut down the government to raise money? >> i'm not surprised, but it is not a great thing. people might be furloughed and $40 million to the government and john boehner is bad in 19 nor o and 1995. i don't believe that ted is out there. he said on television that history is irrelevant. they do not believe that the dynamics are the same. they may be wrong about that. they ignore the boehner who is were there and take a risk themselves. >> what's interesting is that

boehner's office will argue this with me. they don't have a memory that we have to show them sometimes. that's part of what they stuck with conservatives. >> for boehner if he doesn't show them at this point. he goes with democrats and he said fine, we will go for the funding level and fund the government. >> they said hey, you won thatit foo. that's not a fight we want to have. lower funding automatically. >> in theory to get these guys like tom cole and the democrats to pass this, maybe with the math, but at the risk of offending and upsetting his conference. he has a lot of risks too. i don't know what we can do to show them other than let them go over the cliff. the only thing about the political risk is how the districts are now. they are going to see the guys who are in danger get in trouble, but you are not going

to see the tea parties lose their jobs. i don't see it. >> this is a discussion we have to continue. tomorrow is health care. it still happened. what's going to happen? i am curious with conservatives if they think it stops the implementation of health care. the door is open regardless. even if the government shuts down with enrollment, ah fordable health care act begins anyway. why coverage will cost more depending on the state you live in. this is the ideological issue only on "the daily rundown." ♪

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we are taking a deep dive into how the map of health care exchanges and medicaid expansion is split up. it has a lot in common with the map from 2012. let's get out the map and start here. 14 states and the district of columbia are running their own health care exchanges and accepted the funding to expand medicaid. guess what. all of them but one supported president obama in 2012. the lone exception is kentucky. they have a 2ke78 kratic controllcontro controlled senate. all of them have exchanges either partially or totally run by the federal government. of the eight states, romney won just three. west virginia and arizona.

28 states opted out of running their exchanges and opposed expanding medicate coverage and at least seeking alternatives. 20 of the 28, shockingly enough voted for romney. the exceptions are wisconsin. maine i iowa, ohio, virginia, florida, pennsylvania and new hampshire. all but new hampshire can be explained away by republican governorship and control of the republican legislature. let's look at the fourth map. the states with the highest poverty rates. the top ten states along with washington, d.c. highest rate of individuals below the poverty lane. they are opposed to federal medicate expansion. alabama, arkansas, mississippi, louisiana, texas. they are doing the medicate expansion. seven of the top ten.

this is what this tell you. if you are poor in a blue state, you have more of a chance to get access to medicaid and these new benefits. if you are poor in the deep red states in the south, you are not going to have that same access. how will it have them dictated by polarization and ideology by state? you want to know something that the founders were afraid of, it's something like this. we will take a quick look at the marks where fears of a government shut down are making an impact and this is the wild card today that could impact what boehner does tonight. the dow is down about 150 points. this is just right at the opening. president obama's history making phone call with the president of iran. it looms large as he has i high level on one with america's closest allies.

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and launch your dreams. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side. . more of first read. it's 40 years since the first party candidates had double-digits. libertarian candidate is trying to break tra that streak and the two major party candidates, something they tried to exploit with the fertile campaign ad with iran. i moderated that last week. >> like you, i can't vote for ken cuccinelli's socialist agenda. i want a virginia that is open minded. like you i don't want where government takes winners and losers. together we can build a virginia that is open minded and open for

business. >> a mix of positions takes the republican position of cutting taxes and takes a more democratic position on social issues like gay marriage. history has not been kind. the most success of the candidate was henry how. he picked up freezing rain perce no third party candidate got more than 3% in an election. now with me is the libertarian candidate for governor of virginia, good morning to you. >> thank you. >> i want to start with the questions i asked during the debate. might as well get your position on it. we talked about health care and medicate expansion. the state of virginia. where do you stand? >> get more state policy freedoms before we expand the medicaid program.

we had a lot of regulations long before obama came into office that fouled up the health care system entirely. the health insurance and it ties insurance to employment and it makes us push more spending through the insurance system and drives up prices and creates price transparency so we can't econ myself. >> you are open to it, but you want to know how to control it? >> we have a lot of state regulations and we shoot ourselves in the foot. we talk about expanding the number of health care professionals and have more doctors and nurses and things like that so that if we are going to have 400,000 people going into the system, we will be able to care for them.

>> let's talk about the issues and has to do with ken cuccinelli's tax plan. he has a plan that other people will say it's a low tax state already. is that something that they do the tax plan? >> the republicans and democrats have their lay book and they don't like to explain how they make the numbers add up. >> the democrats want to say all the things they want to spend and the republicans say tax cuts, tax cuts. my view is different. we have to get the rule of law into the policy. i'm focused on making it more transparent. >> we can focus on things we should be focused on and reduce spending by making our schools offer more efficient health care. >> and passed with a lot of

democrat support some. >> for one, the revenue raising, we huf to a more aggressive sales tax. i would like to see that. >> so if you have better gas mileage means fewer people buying fewer taxes. >> a lot of ideas are being pursued. even so, things like that, those are things we can talk about. certainly moving away to je d f geographic sur taxes. they are paying a substantially higher sales tax. >> why did you leave the republican party? you ran in 2011. why did you leave? >> i got tired of having to deal with the social ideologies and the lack of principals intact in

regulatory policy. i don't think the gop can be trusted on either issue and we need something different. >> who is your favorite republican and favorite democrat? >> in history? >> right now in office? >> i don't have one. >> on the republican side either? >> no. >> we will be watching you. good luck. i know the next debate will be getting in. we will be watching. we asked of the eight presidents born in virginia, how many died on the fourth of july. it's two. thomas jefferson and james monroe. we'll be right back.

normally this would be the biggest story of the day, perhaps the week. president obama one on one, israeli prime minister beng anyone netanyahu. it all starts in about an hour. the talks are going to be tense. before leaving saturday netanyahu said i will tell the truth in the face of the sweet talk and offensive of smiles. are the smiles offensive or offensive? anyway, while the president will attempt to assure mr. netanyahu that he will not act prematury to ease iranian sanctions, in friday's 15-minute chat has rattled him a bit. let's bring back our gaggle. jack jackie, israel and iran is one of those rare foreign policy issues that can have an impact. what does he say publicly about

the back-and-forth between the president will be the most telling today? >> i think they're going to present a united front publicly. but israel definitely was watching what was going on with syria and the political issues the president had to deal with, so they have already been nervous. so this probably didn't help matters. even though here, this looked like a win for the president in foreign policy when he hadn't -- when his poll numbers had been dropping and it hadn't been good. >> well, it would have been odd if he had rebuffed iran symbolically. you've been beating up iran to change their tone, change their tone. they're changing their tone. that doesn't mean that you ease up sanctions. he probably would have taken a hit had he not at least said, okay, that looks like an olive branch, i'll take a look. >> i think he had to do that. i think he had to worry a lot in 2012 about netanyahu an his views about foreign policy. now there is more of an opening. netanyahu has tended to be blunt

in public. a couple of years ago he sharply scolded the president in public and you might see some of that today still. >> that's a question that i have, susan. he's also in a different place politically, benjamin netanyahu. he won in a very different way than he won before. there is a moderate faction inside of israel that is sort of tired of the brinksmanship when it comes to some of these issues. >> that's true, although there's a united attitude in israel about the dangers of iran. what i expect him to talk about publicly and privately is the arrest that the israelis made of an iranian spy caught taking photos of the u.s. embassy in tel aviv. that is a reminder that we continue to be in a difficult situation despite the olive branch. >> it is. i want to go back to the shutdown because that's going to dominate the day, jackie. the fact that it comes at the same time that basically the biggest part of the health care law begins and it begins tomorrow. i go back to the fact what do conservatives -- i think there are some conservatives that really thinks the government

shuts down, health care stalls and it doesn't. >> it doesn't. there are some conservatives that believe everything changes tomorrow when health care starts being implemented. it actually becomes real so that's why they're fighting so hard. that's why they think they're going to slow this down but the facts are you're not. you keep hearing republicans in the senate say that. you hear some house republicans saying that but there's not a willingness to listen and that's where the frustration lies. >> and some of the mainstream conservatives, however you want to classify these pragmatic conservatives who say ted cruz, mike lee, these guys are raising the expectations of the base unreasonably. >> absolutely, because at the end of the day we all assume the president is never going to sign a law defunding a bill -- a law called obama care he spent two years on. >> and there's 54 united senate democrats, which normally isn't the case. >> the one thing is these stories are causing some confusion for the public. i was in kentucky talking to people. somebody asked me what if the health care law doesn't pass.

because they're confused because there's all this discussion in public about who supports it, who doesn't. the public is genuinely confused about what's happening because they keep hearing about this bill might go away and there's a realistic possibility they're confused about that because we keep talking about it. >> on january 1 they see the benefits. but susan, the other issue goes to the point i was trying to make which is we're going to have uneven phibeneficiaries wh it comes to the health care law and that is something, a massive change. i don't feel like we've seen that. >> a patch work in two ways. some states aren't participating in the medicaid expansion. the other is some states are likely to have exchanges that work pretty well. >> with real competitiveness. >> and some states are going to have ones where there's not much competition. >> so conservatives will yell, hey, it's not working in indiana. it's not working in texas. >> after they try to block it. >> well, you haven't tried. shameless plugs, jackie. >> happy birthday, perry bacon. >> thank you. that's nice. >> you don't look a day over 35. >> i am not a day over 35.

it's my 33rd birthday. >> do you have bun? >> i wrote a piece for the grio and msnbc news about the exchanges and how they worked in kentucky and georgia, two states that are very opposed to the president and they are implementing them. >> kentucky is implementing everything. georgia is not. >> national press club fourth estate dinner on saturday night. the recipient of the award is andrea mitchell. >> that's so exciting. we're all very excited for her. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." we're going to be here around the clock today. i have a feeling we'll all be up until at least midnight to see if there is some sort of shert-term deal. coming up next, chris jansing takes the baton. bye-bye. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare?

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deal-making and right now it doesn't seem like people are talking, the shutdown would be inevitable. both sides miles apart and playing the blame game. >> so far majority leader harry reid has essentially told the house of representatives and the american people go jump in a lake. >> we are going to accept nothing as it relates to obama care. >> we are the party that's willing to compromise. they're the party that says no way, we're not touching obama care. >> there's only one side that is linking obama care with the shutdown of government. >> so here's where we stand. in four hours, the senate will convene and essentially kill a house bill that would keep the government running, but only delaying obama care for a year, so that's what they want to happen. the senate then sends that political hot potato back to the house, giving speaker boehner a clean bill, one that would just keep the government running. anxiously watching are more than 800,000 government workers who would be furloughed during