deal-making and right now it doesn't seem like people are talking, the shutdown would be inevitable. both sides miles apart and playing the blame game. >> so far majority leader harry reid has essentially told the house of representatives and the american people go jump in a lake. >> we are going to accept nothing as it relates to obama care. >> we are the party that's willing to compromise. they're the party that says no way, we're not touching obama care. >> there's only one side that is linking obama care with the shutdown of government. >> so here's where we stand. in four hours, the senate will convene and essentially kill a house bill that would keep the government running, but only delaying obama care for a year, so that's what they want to happen. the senate then sends that political hot potato back to the house, giving speaker boehner a clean bill, one that would just keep the government running. anxiously watching are more than 800,000 government workers who would be furloughed during a government shutdown. d.c. area alone is expected to

take a $200 million a day hit. your retirement account for take a hit. stocks are down sharply on the worry of an impact of a government shutdown. i want to bring in lynn sweet and msnbc contributor e.j. dionne. good morning. >> good to be with you. >> lynn, i guess the question this morning is will speaker boehner blink? >> we're going to have a shutdown, chris. i don't see how anyone came to work today in washington with any plan to get us out of where we're at now. and you know the other point that we should be making on this? even if some deal is made, and we don't think so, i don't think so, it's only until december 15th. we could be right back here in just a few weeks doing this again. >> we know that the republicans have three key demands in the bill they sent to the senate. the one-year delay of obama care, the repeal of a tax on medical devices and guaranteed pay for u.s. troops if there is

a shutdown. and then we started to hear word, e.j., compromise. do you see anything that avoids a shutdown? >> well, first of all, i want to say i reject the whole idea that compromise is relevant here, because what you got is one side of the argument saying we won't do the normal thing that we owe the taxpayers, keep the government open, pay our debts, unless you give us something. that's not compromise. that's like if you own a house, people take it over and say, we'll give you your house pack but we'll burn down two rooms and then be happy to give it back to you. i think that's the problem here is democrats are saying, look, we have passed a budget resolution in the senate. you guys haven't been willing to negotiate on that. we're just not going to negotiate any more with a gun to our heads. and that's the problem. the thing is, there are a lot of republicans, susan collins is one of the latest, the senator from maine, who say this isn't the way to govern.

so the real question is, and i'm afraid lynn may be right, but the real question is at the last minute does speaker boehner say let's try to push off the shutdown and pass some kind of bill to keep the government open. i think it's all on speaker boehner, because he could bring this to the floor of the house, the senate bill, and there's a reasonably good chance with democrats and a minority of republicans you could avert a shutdown. so we'll see what the pressures are like on him, and what happens inside the republican party. will republicans who think this is not a reasonable way to do business actually make their voices heard? >> yeah, i guess that is the question. is there anything going on behind the skeecenes, lynn, thae don't know about? are there conversations going on between republicans or between republicans and democrats? >> remarkably, chris, this has been a back room-free zone for sunday, where you would think there would be back channels, and there wasn't a lot going on.

usually people kind of try to say where we have scenarios upon scenarios, you know, it's like peeling an onion. i think you have -- i'm guessing that the shutdown will -- as the hours go by, it will -- it will trigger something happening, because it can't go on like this forever. but let me say this quickly. i think what may happen if somebody -- if the forces to be, we could get a one or two-day reprieve and a very, very short-term resolution. it would buy some time if it seems there's a path out. the path out that, by the way, a lot of people can't see as we speak. >> if there is a path out, e.j., what's the president's role in all of this? the white house tweeted out a picture of him with senior staff yesterday and there have been some reports that he wanted to bring in all of the leadership and harry reid talked him out of it. what's the president's role in all this? >> well, i think the democrats are actually a little concerned that the president might make compromises that they are uncomfortable with, so i think

that's part of it. i think a lot of democrats are saying, look, we've got to draw a line somewhere, let's draw it here. let's establish that we're not going to negotiate under these circumstances. we're happy to negotiate on things like this tax on medical devices. the senate has already passed a resolution saying they'd like to get rid of it. i personally don't think that's a good idea, but there's a lot of sentiment for it. but let's deal with this in the normal circumstances. and i think in the end, you know, the one place the president doesn't want to give any ground is to delay the affordable care act. and let's be clear, to delay a year is to essentially kill it because we'll just face the same demand next year and the year after that until the 2016 election, so he won't cave to that. i think democrats want to hold up a united front. >> let me bring in congressman adam schiff, democrat from california and a member of the appropriations committee. always good to see you, congressman. good morning. >> good morning. >> realistically from where you stand right now, are we going to

be able to avoid a shutdown or is it a done deal? >> well, it's still possible. it will require one of two things. the republicans have another conference and decide to send a clean bill back to the senate -- >> and what are the chances that you see that happening. >> well, it could be a clean bill with a fig leaf. i don't know what the fig leaf would look like. the chances i would probably say are 35% that having slept on the matter republicans have come to see it's a mistake politically it's going to be a disaster for them. e.j. is exactly right, this isn't a compromise negotiation, this is really an extortion attempt. and if the president relents this time, it will be just another extortion attempt on the debt ceiling. if the majority party isn't willing to govern, and right now they are not, they're just going to have to be replaced because woe can't keep going through these shutdowns, this artificial man made crises which suppress our economic recovery. it's just completely irresponsible and we're going to have to get past it.

but right now i think the odds are there will be a shutdown, just a question of whether we'll be shut down for minutes, hours or days. >> well, you suggested that there were two things that could avoid it. one you said and when i interrupted you that they send a clear bill. there's another path you see to avoiding a shutdown? >> they could pass a clean bill with some kind of a fig leaf, something that gives them the patine of claiming some success here. but the bottom line is what you usually negotiate in terms of a resolution to keep the government funded is what's the funding level going to be. they have already won that fight. they can claim that as a victory. democrats don't want the post-sequester levels that are going to bring us down to discretionary nondefense spending we haven't seen since eisenhower. the republicans have gotten that. they can't take that as a victory. instead they want to use this process to get something they don't have the votes for, which is repealing or delaying or attacking the health care reform. we just can't operate that way

as a country. even if we don't shut down, i think some of the damage has already been done because the markets, other nations around the world are losing confidence in our ability to govern rationaly and this has just got to come to an end. >> while the countdown clock is ticking, there are not just a few republicans who are blaming the democrats, and they say it's on you if the shutdown happens. let me play a little bit of sound for you, congressman. >> right now the democratic position is they're not going to negotiate over anything. it's not as if there's been a counteroffer, there's been any discussions. the president is sort of awol on all of this. >> on the other side, what have the democrats compromised on? nothing, zero. their position is absolutely no, no matter what. how that is compromise? >> you heard what tom cole had to say, that the president has been awol in all of this. do you think he needs to get involved in a different way? >> tom cole has also said i think that he thinks it's a mistake for the republicans to hold up this shutdown as

leverage to try to get something completely unrelated to the budget. no, i think the president has done the right thing. in fact i think the president has done the only thing he can, unless he wants to invite this kind of extortion attempt on the next continuing resolution, on the debt ceiling debate. it has to come to an end and the president has been very clear about this. if we were going to have a traditional negotiation, it might have looked different. the senate might have put in a higher number to keep the government running and the house could have said, no, we want the lower number and we would have compromised at a number in the middle. that would be a rational process of negotiation. we've given them what they want on the number and now they're seeking to extort something completely unrelated to the budget and that's just not going to work. i think the best that the gop can do if they shut us down is try to point the finger of blame elsewhere, but frankly i think the american people aren't going to buy it. this is just a repeat of the petulance we saw with newt

gingrich and i think it's going to be a disaster for the gop. but more important i think it's going to be a disaster for the country and i hope the dpop leadership gets that message quickly so the damage can be minimized. >> congressman schiff, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> isn't this shutdown poised to be worse than we saw in newt gingrich's time because congress hasn't passed a single appropriations bill. there's nothing to mitigate the impact of this. >> in the '90s when that happened, and i was around to cover it, a lot more of the government was funded. the other thing is, is that there's just so much more civic engagement because of all the new media that we have now. multiple platforms, people finding out more for themselves and putting their lawmakers on the carpet no matter what their party. >> do you think, lynn, that that kind of has really changed this? because the suggestion has been made that if you're ted cruz and you're getting all these tweets or you're getting all these e-mails that say hang in there, can you get a disproportionate

idea of what the level is out there in the country or what the appetite is or the disenchantment with obama care? >> absolutely. if you're ted cruz -- who heard of ted cruz a few weeks ago? now he's the biggest four-letter word in america. so for him, this is great. he's probably getting a big e-mail list and people actually on both sides are raising money for this. >> a lot of money. >> september 30th is the fund-raising deadline for this quarter so, you know, people are doing that. so i can see how it helps your own political brand to do this because you have all these other ways to leverage it as you just mentioned. but what cruz can't do is make a deal to even get his own goal. >> e.j., we can't look at this in a vacuum either, because i think senators -- former senator simpson of simpson-bowles, which was supposed to stop the budget crises from happening said, look, this is going to be nothing compared to the chaos,

absolute chaos is the way he put it, e.j., if this happens now, what's it mean for the debt ceiling? >> right. and i think that we have to be very careful about social media. what it does is it empowers activists. i have never seen a headline in the paper, millions of angry moderates demand reasonable compromise. and so what you've got is an echo chamber, particularly right now on the right, where they tell themselves everybody is against obama care. everybody wants to deny health insurance to 11 million people, which is what would happen if we shut it down or delayed it right now. >> e.j., i just had this -- >> or they could form their own view that ted cruz is, exactly as lynn said, a very famous guy right now. that does not mean that this represents a majority or anything close to a majority of the country. >> i just had this headline flashing, maniac moderates on

the march, e.j., as you were talking. right, it just doesn't happen that way. >> we were all waiting for it but i think we'll be waiting a very long time. to be continued, lynn, e.j., great to have both of you on the program. thank you. meantime, the federal government is about to step up its fight to protect minority voters. in just a few hours, the justice department is expected to announce a lawsuit challenging north carolina's restrictive new voting law that also impacts students and the elderly. north carolina's law requires voters to show a government hit government-issued i.d., not a student i.d. it also shortens the early voting period and bans same-day registration during early voting. but there is no evidence of widespread in person impersonation fraud that supporters say these laws prevent. waiting for your wrinkle cream to work? clinically proven neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair. it targets fine lines and wrinkles with the fastest retinol formula available. you'll see younger looking skin in just one week.

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on a day when the president

is staring down the first government shutdown in 17 years, all centered around obama care, the rollout of that health care plan begins tomorrow. the 15% of americans, or 48 million who are uninsured are eligible. the 85% of americans who get insurance through work can keep it. so can folks who have medicare or medicaid. but with one day to go, there is a mad scramble to make sure websites and workers are ready for the kickoff. nbc news political director and host of "the daily rundown" chuck todd joins me from washington. always great to see you, chuck. a lot at stake from the president. what's the word from the white house? how ready are they to go? >> well, they believe they're fairly ready. their biggest concern politically is the glitches that they think is a normal issue in something like this. will get magnified unfairly, they worry about in the press or by opponents of the law, so they are overly concerned about that. but one thing to keep in mind, chris, and i keep reminding

people, is that no matter what the government does, if the government shuts down tonight, they still turn on the lights, the website still goes on tomorrow and enrollment for those health care exchanges begins. hhs, the cabinet agency that essentially is running the health care law, it is -- they will have some -- they won't have their entire staff there for obvious reasons if there's a government shutdown, but enough to turn on the lights and get this done. so there's another also concern the white house has, chris, which is they'll have glitches simply because they won't have the manpower that they would have had had the government been funnel funded fully starting tomorrow but they still feel fairly confident thing are going to go okay. >> which realistically when you have these glitches or you have some things not quite fully operational provides an opening and talking point for republicans, who say another big government program, they can't even get it right, they have had years to get it moving, right? >> there is. there's one more fear on the expectation front. remember enrollment starts

tomorrow, but coverage doesn't begin right away. and they fully believe that most of the new enrollees in a six-month period, so it starts october 1, ends april 1, but most of the enrollees will happen after the calendar year, after this is an instantaneous i've enrolled, tomorrow i've got insurance. you don't have that at the beginning because this is open enrollment in advance, right, for insurance that would kick in at the start of the year. they're also a little concerned that when the numbers come out in october and november, they're going to look low, they believe the numbers will be much higher when there's the instant gratification available to these people where they sign up and insurance begins. >> nbc news political director chuck todd, thank you so much, chuck. >> you got it, chris. >> joining me now, dr. ezekial emanuel from the university of pennsylvania and an author and a former health care adviser to president obama. calls good to see you. good morning. >> nice to be here. >> let me continue that

conversation. how worried are you? look, there are going to be glitches, we've already heard from the heads of the 16 state-run exchanges about whether or not they'll be fully operational or not. how big a concern is this? >> well, you would like them to be operational. you would have liked extensive beta testing. but let's be serious, there will be a lot of revision over the next ten weeks and people have all the way up until december 15th to sign up and pay money for an insurance plan that begins january 1st. we also know from massachusetts that a lot of people come, window shop, come back, 18 times on average before they actually make a purchase. it would be quite unrealistic for anyone to make a purchase in the first few weeks because why would you put money down for something that doesn't begin until 90 days from now. so i anticipate a lot of window shopping. as i like to say, the most important thing is what happens on april 1st. on april 1st, have we seen over the last six months seven million people sign up or not in

the exchanges. that, i think, is going to be much more the relevant date and the relevant number. >> and is that your biggest concern, that there won't be large numbers of people signing up? >> i'm an optimist. i think there's going to be more than seven million people sign up. actually if you talk to a lot of the officials at the state level, they anticipate more people signing up. in large measure because there are very, very good deals in the exchanges, where, for example, in utah with no subsidy, this is someone who's over 400% of the poverty line, an individual making more than $46,000, you can get insurance for about $160. now that's a pretty good deal. i've talked to a lot of people and not just the uninsured people, but people who have to buy insurance themselves, individuals, the 17 million or so americans who buy their own coverage. they're looking at the exchange too to see if they can get a lower price. so i think there's a lot more interest than you might anticipate from the arguments and political rhetoric in washington. >> well, let me give you a

chance to answer some of the key arguments made by republicans. if you talk to members -- republican members of congress, they will say virtually every constituent that they have talked to has said my costs are going up. now i'm going from a full-time job to a part-time job because my employer says this is costing us more money. they also say that obama care is forcing a lot of people just to lose insurance coverage, period, altogether. let mow play a short sound bite for you. >> every member in this chamber has someone in their district who has lost their insurance policy. >> and they have also put out a lot of press about the afl-cio's resolution saying that the affordable care act will drive up costs of union-sponsored insurance plans. >> okay. >> to all of those concerns, which are cost-based concerns, what do you say? >> so, first, let's just look at the numbers game and how many people have lost their insurance. if you actually look at the most recent numbers from the government, in fact fewer people

are uninsured than we had before. in fact more people are getting insurance because of obama care, whether it's because 26-year-olds can stay on their parents' policy or other reasons. the fact is that more people losing insurance is simply a false claim, just by the data. second, the federal reserve of san francisco, i believe, did a study about this claim that more people are going to part-time work. it is true we have slightly higher numbers that are in part-time work than traditionally and the san francisco fed looked at this and said but that's not because of obama care, that's because of the recession and the kinds of jobs that are being added back. there is absolutely no evidence that the affordable care act is making employers shift people down to low -- to fewer hours and part-time work. as a matter of fact, one of the things you hear from all these republican charges is you never hear a company name. you never hear ten companies' name. we have more than five million employers in this country. you would think that if lots of

people were going to part-time, you'd have thousands and thousands of companies' name. they make the charge, but no evidence. >> dr. ezekial emanuel, it's so good to have you on the program. thank you. >> thank you for having me. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu sending a harsh warning this morning to president obama. don't trust iran. netanyahu is meeting with the president at the white house. he believes iran's outreach to the u.s. is a smoke screen to hide plans to use nuclear weapons. the two leaders also expected today to talk about syria's chemical weapons and the israeli/palestinian conflict.

to paul particulars now where "saturday night live" kicked off its 39th season poking fun at obama care. >> let me start by saying i am psyched for obama care. >> there you go. i love that enthusiasm. >> because now that i've got free health care, i can get sick all the time.

whoo! free medicine, y'all. >> well, that's not really how it works. >> i've stopped washing my hands and i'm licking hella subway poles. thanks, president. >> and former white house press secretary ari fleischer launched a twitter attack with president obama kind of after the president sent out this tweet about obama care. he tweeted back how come barack obama's tweet was more than 140 characters. does he play by different rules? he miscounted. it was only 136. he later apologized. if you read only one thing this morning, read this. scandal has hit 10 downing street after an explosive new book claims the resident cat is unloved. apparently larry the cat was acquired in february, 2011, after a rat was spotted scurrying around outside the door of 10 downing, but his

efficacy has been called into question and it took him a few months to make the first confirmed kill. this story is hilarious. it's up on our facebook page. so i c an reach ally bank 24/7, but there are no branches? 24/7. i'm sorry, i'm just really reluctant to try new things. really? what's wrong with trying new things? look! mommy's new vacuum! (cat screech) you feel that in your muscles? i do... drink water. it's a long story. well, not having branches let's us give you great rates and service. i'd like that. a new way to bank. a better way to save. ally bank. your money needs an ally. wout of landfills each year? plastic waste to cover mt. rainier

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if there's such an emergency, where are they? it's time for the senate to listen to the american people, just like the house has listened to the american people, and to pass a one-year delay of obama care and a permanent repeal of the medical device tax. >> that was just moments ago. john boehner on the house floor urging the senate to act. not lost in all the fighting over the possible government shutdown is republican party infighting and what it will mean for 2016. two potential candidates this weekend. >> the american people overwhelmingly reject obama care. they understand it's not working. the only people who aren't listening to the argument are the career politicians in washington. >> it's the president saying my way or the highway. if i don't get everything i

want, if i don't get obama care the democrats passed without any republicans for it, the democrats are saying they're willing to shut down the government. >> so how might this government shutdown affect some potential candidates? keith boykin is a strategist and column nis, alice stewart is a strategist and radio talk show host. good morning. ted cruz has led this fight to defund obama care. conventional wisdom is he's not going to win this one, but maybe not. let me play this from "morning joe" this morning. >> i would predict, if it hasn't happened already, that he will shoot to the top of every poll of republicans in all the early primary states. >> alice, is she right? what do you think the impact is going to be of all this on ted cruz's possibility of being a candidate in 2016? >> well, chris, it's no secret and it's no surprise that he's certainly carrying the message of republicans, and quite frankly americans across the country. the majority of people, including republicans, want to

keep the government open and they want to defund obama care or certainly delay its implementation. and ted cruz has been leading the charge to do just that. >> the polls show in fact that americans don't want to shut down the government. they don't think that getting rid of obama care is worth a government shutdown. every single poll has shown that. >> and that's exactly why house republicans have voted to fund the government, to keep the government open and to defund obama care and keith is laughing, but his former boss, president clinton, has acknowledged that there are flaws in obama care and why throw good money after a flawed law. so let's keep the government open like the house republicans want and let's defund obama care, at least delay its implementation, which is the father of delaying obama care implementation is president obama himself. >> keith, that is what ted cruz is counting on, that american people believe it's the democrats going to shut down this government and ted cruz is a crusader for the american people. >> it's just not true. the polls consistently show that

the republican party is going to be blamed for this. they have done this before 17 years ago, they got blamed then. polls show american people do not want to defund obama care, they do not want to shut down the government. it seems like the republican party is operating in this bubble again when everybody thought mitt romney was going to win and all polls were showing the opposite. ted cruz is doing really well in the gop right now. he's skyrocketing in the polls according to the latest ppp poll. but you know rand paul was on top of the polls a few months ago after he gave his drone filibuster in the u.s. senate. so this is going to change and fluctuate over the next three years. the reality is this is devastating for the gop and they're going down this path of suicide. >> what about ted cruiz's presidential prospects? >> he may have achance of winning iowa and states like that that appeal to the base but the larger constituency has to appeal to win the general election is just not there for him. this is political suicide for

the republicans. as a democrat, i welcome it. but smart republicans should be standing up and challenging this and some of them are like john mccain and others. >> rand paul has been more moderate than ted cruz for sure. what does it mean for his presidential prospects? >> i think the bigger concern is 2014 and not 2016. clearly we have president obama, nancy pelosi and harry reid ramming obama care down our throats. >> we're not talking about 2014. i think you can make the argument 2014, we have so much gerrymandering, and we'll do that in another segment one day. but for 2016, where is it this leave people like rand paul? >> clearly a lot of it depends on how things shape out over the next few days. but the overwhelming sentiment as we've seen in poll after poll is people do not trust or are satisfied with the implementation of obama care. the president himself has delayed it. so any republican, no matter who they are, whether it's ted cruz, rand paul, rick santorum, any of

the republicans out there fighting to delay the implementation of obama care are certainly not only -- it's not only a rallying cry for the base but for the american people who want to see changes and certainly delaying this because the impact is creating full-time workforce into a part-time workforce and people are losing their health care. >> there's another republican we haven't mentioned who's not on board with this and that's chris christie. let me play what he had to say. >> i think there's got to be a solution other than that. i don't think that we should be doing that. and i quite frankly, to be fair, i don't think you hear responsible republican leaders advocating a shutdown of the government. >> it's interesting, keith, responsible republican leaders. >> who are they? >> and i think he wants to consider himself one. so does this help someone like him or hurt them? because as you say these early states might favor someone more like ted cruz. >> well, people are still upset, some people, the right wings at

chris christie because he embraced barack obama before the election. somehow they think that gave him the re-election. but that makes his point of view unwelcome within the establishment of the gop at least, in the house at least. it's not really clear who's running the ship. that's a dilemma the republican party has. what alice said, i just reject this notion you completely argue over and over again that somehow the american people are not being listened to. the same thing ted cruz said. we had a presidential election about this issue. we had two houses of congress approve this and the u.s. supreme court uphold this. what else does it take for the republican party to understand what the american people, who they are? >> it takes what's happened -- >> thanks to both of you for being with us. >> all right, thank you. checking the news feed this morning, amanda knox is on trial for the third time accused in the murder of her roommate back in 2007. italy's highest court ordered a

new trial. knox is not required to attend but her ex-boyfriend and co-defendant may be called to testify. he talked about a retrial on "today." >> what is happening, it's a big huge mistake against two human beings. we are innocent and we are fighting for our innocence. >> amanda knox served four years of a 26-year sentence on her original conviction. you may never have heard of her but if you eat italian food, you've tasted her influence, marchella, hazan died sunday in florida. he was 89. she authored six cookbooks and mario bertolli said he paid attention. the vatican verified two

miracles pope john paul ii performed, making him eligible for sainthood. pope francis bent the rules a bit saying he didn't need to achieve a miracle to achieve sainthood. the olympic torch is crossing greece this morning after yesterday's elaborate lighting ceremony. the flame will take a 40,000-mile journey to sochi, the longest in olympics history. stocks down sharply ahead of the midnight deadline to avert a government shutdown. michelle caruso-cabrera is here with what's moving your money. if the past is any indication, our retirement accounts could take a big hit if there's a shutdown. >> at least temporarily, chris. often what's happened in the past, just like now, it's coincided with big drama in europe so that's also hurt the stock market. so we are seeing the market lower today because we have two government shutdowns we're dealing with, perhaps the u.s. and italy.

you can see the dow is off by 103 points. if you look back historically and we'll go back from most recent to farthest back, in december of 2012 that was the big fiscal cliff debate. the dow lost 412 points. that was a decline of 3.1%. we're well above that now and recovered that completely. the summer of twlech2011, that e debt ceiling debate. that was a really ugly time. a decline of 14%, 1700 points, but also at that point, europe was going through its lehman summer. it was complete crisis over there and that also hurt the u.s. stock market so you had a double whammy. 1995 to 1996, that's the last time we had a real government shutdown, there was a decline of 3.5% for the dow jones industrial average. but right after that, once again, a recovery. so it causes a hiccup, but then we tend to get over it. back to you. >> and the debt ceiling comes and that might be a bigger concern for the stock market. we will talk about that when the time comes.

michelle caruso-cabrera, always good to see you. >> you too. for the first time in 13 years, coca-cola is not the most valuable brand in the world. that's according to an annual survey by interbrand. tech firms dominate. microsoft fifth, ibm number four, coca-cola drops to third for the first time since the list's inception in 2000. number two, google and apple is the new number one worth $98 billion. a link to the full list is up at jansing.msnbc.com. ♪ hey lady! noooo! no! [ tires screech ] ♪ nooo! nooo! nooo! hey lady, that's diesel! i know. ♪ ♪

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are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. you should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. ask your doctor if humira can work for you. this is humira at work. his day of coaching begins with knee pain, when... [ man ] hey, brad, want to trade the all-day relief of two aleve for six tylenol? what's the catch? there's no catch. you want me to give up my two aleve for six tylenol? no. for my knee pain, nothing beats my aleve. the red cross reports this morning that progress is being made in finding the dozens of missing victims in the nairobi mall attack. those found alive are being reunited with family and counselled at a triage center. but we're also getting new images of the bloody scene left behind inside that complex after four days of battles that left at least 67 people dead. we also have new details about what some survivors went through.

the victim, who was seen with her children, said she wiped blood on herself and her two kids. mir rack rasly they were able to lay completely still, playing dead for four and a half hours, until help arrived. imagine doing that with a toddler. right now the investigation continues with help from u.s. agencies, and twitter and social media played a role in all of it. joining me to talk more about that, nbc terrorism expert, evan kohlmann. it's good to see you. so we know that terrorists have been using things like twitter to get out information, to brag about their exploits, even as a recruiting tool, but how widespread is it? >> look, we're in the opening phases of it. these groups used to have their own private communication channels, password protected, separate, for al qaeda members or shabaab members exclusively. but these various different private channels started coming under attack by hackers, by government agencies, et cetera. also these guys started thinking about it and realized if we want to reach the widest audience possible, we shouldn't be using

some kind of esoteric pass waw d password-protected channel, we should use something everybody uses and broadcast to the world at large. >> they did a study and found that twitter helped spur a 30% growth in online forums for hate and terrorism over the past year. 20,000 what they called hate-spewing hash tags and handles appeared on twitter, up 5,000 from the year before. i don't even know how you monitor that breadth of activity obviously. >> it's very, very tough. that's one of the most challenging things, not only for us but for terrorist groups. who is the real representative of the group on twitter, because twitter doesn't validate accounts from al qaeda or shabaab. so if someone goes on there and says that they're shabaab or al qaeda, how do we really know they are who they say we are. >> you and i talked during the whole kenya incident because they shut down their twitter account, shut it down, open it, it happened five or six times.

how do you know this really is who's inside that building? >> and one of the accounts that popped up looks like it was a copy-cat account. >> oh, it does? >> yeah. look, there are ways of validating this. last week an account that claimed to be al shabaab released an original audio recording of the leader of al shaba shabaab. presumably if you're releasing that information, that's validating the authenticity. if you look at the number of followers on these accounts, you're talking about thousands and thousands of followers, never mind people browsing cross this normally so it really does increase their reach pretty dramatically. >> as concerning as that is, is that a plus side for law enforcement in that it gives them another avenue to track them down? >> instead of oranging in secret, they're organizing in public which makes it easier to see what's going on. on twitter you can see who subscribed to a feed, right, so you can see who the supporters of a group are. not to mention the fact that in the case of shabaab, if shabaab

starts using their twitter account to threaten hostages or threaten to kill people, the u.s. government can go to twitter and say that's not only a violation of your terms of service agreement, that's a violation of u.s. law, you have to remove that account. the u.s. government does not have the capability with password-protected pry pry ta password-protected proprietary channels that al qaeda uses. >> evan kohlmann, it's fascinating stuff. thank you. today's tweet of the day comes from sam stein who tweeted out a photo showing a sign that says how to survive government shutdown. buy beer, drink, repeat. his caption, d.c. stores already advertising for a shutdown. ♪ ♪ ♪

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if you were hoping for a hail mary pass in washington that would stop all the talk of a government shutdown, that now appears pretty unlikely. tomorrow, assuming the shutdown does happen, you will notice some changes. we have two reports this morning on changes right away and

agencies unaffected as well. nbc's craig melvin is live at the ft. dix army base in new jersey. john yang is outside the post office in north riverside, illinois. craig, let me start with you. how concerned are servicemen and women and their families this morning? >> reporter: oh, they are extremely concerned, to say the least. i'm sure i'm not even doing an adequate job of conveying how concerned they are. we talked to a few just a few moments ago at a nearby diner. you know what, chris, just take a listen to what one woman told us about how all of this is playing out. take a listen. >> they don't care, they're all rich. so if they don't have a job for a few weeks, they don't care. us, we're middle class. we need our paychecks. we live paycheck to paycheck. >> i work in wrightstown and we depend on the military. >> we do have a lot of customers from the base, so i think it would. it would be a big -- a big

impact on us. >> reporter: 6700 civilian employees. that's the number that drive through these gates every day. many of those employees, keep in mind, just took six unpaid days off this past summer because of those automatic spending cuts known as the sequester. tomorrow there's a good chance that many of them will not be coming to work again. commanders at this hour we are told are in the process of trying to figure out who's essential and who's non-essential. chris. >> all right, craig, thank you. let's go to john yang now. john, i know mail delivery is expected to continue, but are there other things that will happen inside the post office? >> reporter: that's right, chris. neither rain nor sleet or government shutdown will stop the u.s. mail. the postal service gets its money from another source other than annual appropriations from congress. but if you go there and you want your social security benefits, they will still be flowing. they get money from permanent law rather than annual acts of congress. federal prisons will remain

operating. they're seen as essential services. believe it or not, congress is seen as an essential service. they'll still get their pay. but if you come to the post office and apply for a new passport or want to renew a passport, that application may be delayed a bit. federal courts will be open. they are seen as essential. for the first ten days, ten business days or so, they have enough money to pay jurors. after that, though, jury trials will continue to go on. if you get a jury summons, you still have to show up, but your jury pay may be delayed. >> john yang with just a little slice of what to expect in illinois. thank you so much, john. also closing, national parks, the smithsonian museums and the national zoo. so we will keep you updated throughout the day on msnbc. that's going to wrap up this hour of "jansing & co." mau mara schiavocampo up next for thomas roberts and i'll see you back here tomorrow.

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the senate decide not to work yesterday. well, my goodness, if there's such an emergency, where are they? it's time for the senate to listen to the american people, just like the house has listened to the american people. >> house speaker john boehner on the floor minutes after it opened for the day. washington is bracing for impact. with just 13 hours left to avert a government shutdown, neither side looks like they're anywhere close to caving. hello, everyone, i'm mara schiavocampo in for thomas roberts. developing news tops our agenda this hour with the u.s. government careening towards its first shutdown in 17 years. check out the cover of "usa today." closing time. "the new york post," storm coming. here's what's happening this morning and what we'll see the next few hours. the house has been in session since 10:00 a.m. but they're just sitting around waiting for the senate, which goes back to work midday. that chamber convenes at 2:00 p.m., ten hours until shutdown

time. this afternoon senator harry reid will attempt to strip two republican amendments from the house bill. one that delays obama care by a year, the other repealing the medical device tax that helps to pay for that program, setting up a final showdown that puts the ball back in the house's court. >> you could not imagine a group of people at this point less likely to strike a deal based on personality, based on political interests, based on the weakness of speaker boehner in dealing with some of the members of his conference. >> it's all boiling down to a staring match between senate majority leader harry reid and house speaker john boehner. with neither side looking ready to blink, their caucuses are engaged in an all-out blame game. >> harry reid takes the senate home for a couple days during this crucial time. they could have used yesterday to address this issue and get it back to the house