just a click away on geico.com. good morning. i'm richard lui in for chris jansing. finally on day 15, it seems like senators are getting it together and closing in on a deal. the senate and house are both back in session right now. we've got a live picture there on the right-hand side. we expect speaker boehner to be coming to the microphones very, very shortly after finishing a meeting with his conference. lawmakers spending the morning floating the latest deal to its members and we're waiting to hear from house republicans as i was mentioning any moment. it would lift the debt limit until february the 7th. it would fund the government through january 15th. it would formalize budget talks with an end date before christmas. that senate deal could also include more flexibility for agencies to deal with sequester cuts. and if nothing else, you could hear a real change in tone.

>> i'm very optimistic that we reach -- we will reach an agreement. it's reasonable in nature this week. deeply appreciate my friend, the minority leader, for his diligent efforts to come to an agreement. >> let me just echo the remarks of my good friend, the majority leader. we've had an opportunity over the last couple of days to have some very constructive exchanges of views about how to move forward. >> but if the senate gets this deal worked out, there are still two big potential obstacles. will senator ted cruz or someone in the senate block the vote? and will the republican-led house go along with what is decided in the senate? i want to bring in our company, dafna linzer, msnbc.com managing editor. dafna, you've been watching the polls so far, right? the latest one coming out that we are looking at is showing that they have had a absolute drop in the polls. 74% now saying that

abc/washington post poll that they are disapproving of how it has been handled by house republicans. is that what drove them to these changes? >> i've got to hope so. i mean if they're looking at the polls and looking at their support just plummeting, i would think that the desire here for the republican party is to move as swiftly to reopen the government and to avoid a default here. and i think that they are trying very, very hard. we won't -- hopefully we will have a deal before the 17th, but i think clearly there is real motivation here from the public saying we do not like this shutdown. >> you know, we're also getting word here from frank thorpe as well as luke russert on the hill that house republicans will be introducing a bill. it, however, includes something that's not in the senate bill and that is, for instance, delays in the medical device tax by two years. that's just one of the differences here. how are they going to bring this altogether? >> that's a good question. i think one of the things that looks really interesting to me in what's developing in the deal is, number one, getting budget conference back on track. this is something the democrats have wanted for a long time.

they want to be meeting in conference to talk about the budget. they haven't been able to do that. they're going to have to negotiate on these smaller issues, on the medical device issue. that's something there was a little bit of democratic support for in the house. i don't imagine that's going to happen in the senate. but more importantly i think what happened here was that we had this entire 15-day shutdown and there isn't going to be an end to obama care, there isn't going to be major changes in the health care laws that have been rolled out. if that was the republican goal, i think that has faltered. >> so if we look at the signaling from the word that we're getting from the hill and our reporters there right now, we want to remain hopeful. however, as i was mentioning north dakota lead-up here, you do have ted cruz. might he go to the floor? might he hold a filibuster? you've also got the speaker who has stood pretty strongly there with those tea partiers. >> i don't see a big change yet from boehner in how he's willing to deal with that part of his conference. i mean, as you say, he's got this group as the president says

is holding everybody hostage. you know, ted cruz already held one faux filibuster that got us into this. if he's going to go in that direction, i think that's a possibility that everyone is waiting to see. >> a lot of folks saying they don't want to see that happen. let's bring in as well at this hour politico's patrick gavin. patrick, i want to play something for you. democratic senator mark pryor is what he said on cnn a little bit earlier and i'll get your response. >> i think we'll get an agreement today in the senate. one of the goals that we really set out with in our group is we said, look, we don't want 60 votes, we want to get 70, 75, 80 votes if we possibly can because we think that really puts pressure on the house to get this passed. >> we've talked about this before, patrick. i think in immigration we're looking at numbers in 80s and 90s here. is there a magic number that puts a lot of pressure here on speaker boehner that he could not ignore? >> sure, there is. 80 would be a great number, but i find it hard to believe that you're going to get those kind of overwhelming numbers, really almost on any issue nowadays.

that's just the way washington works. the house republicans has really always had the power on this. we're seeing this right now with their new proposal. the senate can do what they want but it's up to the house to decide whether or not they want to go with what the senate did, if they want to kick this into thursday and run the risk -- and run the risk of pushing up against that thursday deadline. so right now i think that what the house is considering is really what the house wants, what speaker boehner wants, what members of his caucus want. what the senate is doing certainly convincing to him in terms of maybe we should just take this for now and punt everything into january, but really what you're seeing today is what's always been the case, is that the house republican party has always had the bulk of the power on this issue. >> so, patrick, as we wait for speaker boehner to come to the microphones after he meets with his conference very shortly and we're getting that word that the proposal that will be coming to the house floor, how do you put those two together? because it's clear that the

plans are different and that at least when you look at the house plan, it is consistent with what they have demanded before and we're k llooking at 38 hours fr now before we see thursday on our clock. >> obviously so much about this is about saving face. i think what the fear was for john boehner and a lot of republicans in the house, if republicans couldn't come away from this being able to say a couple of things, number one, that we did make tweaks to obama care and number two, that we didn't give the president his clean budget and the clean debt limit that he requested that they can walk out sort of saving face. i think what you're likely to see from john boehner when he comes out is a way for republicans at least in the house to say that in fact we did get something out of this. what you saw from the senate, a lot of the reports were that a lot of house republicans were grumbling that what the senate was doing. this was not a political win for republicans at all. so what you're seeing right now in the house is at least their attempt to be able to walk away from this whole shutdown saying that we at least as republicans did gain something obviously

politically and with regards to our conservative philosophy as well. >> patrick, dafna, stand by for a second. i want to bring in congresswoman maxine waters, democrat from california. congresswoman, a lot happening just this hour. as you know, we're waiting for speaker boehner to come on out very shortly from his conference meeting. you just finished a meeting as well. what are you hearing at this moment based on the two deals? we've got the senate deal and then we've also got the house deal coming from the gop conference. is a deal close here? >> well, you know, i would like to think so. i was very hopeful until this morning and i do believe that boehner is still held captive by the right wing conservative republicans mostly led by the tea party and i think they're going to come with a bill that will not be accepted on the senate side and so i don't think we're close to an agreement. i'd like to compliment the

senate on what they have been able to do, mcconnell and harry reid getting together and providing leadership, but boehner cannot control those 30 to 33 right wing conservative tea party-led republicans. and i think they're going to mess up everything. so i don't think there's a deal that's going to be signed off on by the house republicans. >> you know, when we look at this, what's going to happen at the end of this? you're talking about that two to three dozen very conservative tea partiers. for instance, there's joe bart who said no deal is better than a bad deal. we've got congressman james langford said he didn't see any victories for republicans being floated coming over from the senate. so are you saying that you don't see this happening? there is going to be no coming together by thursday? >> i don't think so. i don't think so. these right wing conservative republicans, tea party led republicans are reckless. they're irresponsible. they don't have this country's

best interests. they have their own leanings and they're going to hold tight, they're going to hold boehner hostage and i don't think boehner is going to be able to do anything with them. and so, no, i don't see an agreement coming together at this point. >> so is there a possibility, though, here that the speaker may come together with leader pelosi and actually bring something to the floor that brings along the democrats? many on your side of the aisle as well as the other side saying speaker boehner will make that move. he is a smart individual. he understands this is important for the country and the economy. he's got a lot of supporters in big business and he's going to make that move? you don't believe that's going to happen? >> i don't see that happening at this pointing. i really don't. i wish it would but i don't think so. >> we posted a story here, congresswoman, on our facebook page from msnbc.com about women in the senate driving the deal. we got close to a record number of comments on that. here's what senator amy klobuchar said on "morning joe"

regarding that. >> the 20 women in the senate have formed such strong friendships of trust, even though we come from different places, that i'm very hopeful as we go forward with patty murray head of the budget committee, barbara mikulski, that those relationships will make a difference. >> congresswoman, again, we're waiting for speaker boehner. we'll have to go straight to those microphones once he gets there. but you're the ranking member of the house financial services committee. do you think more women in leadership would lead to more problem solving, more efficient problem solving? >> i really do. and i have to tell you that what we have on the senate side, when you talk about barbara mikulski and patty murray, you're talking about women with experience, women with backgrounds who have gone through any number of struggles in their lifetime here in the senate of the united states of america. and they bring with them a perspective that i think is well received and well respected by others. and when they speak, others

listen. and i think what you will find with those of us who have fought very hard to get here, who have gone through a lot of struggles in order to reach our leadership roles, we really do have influence, we really do have a perspective that's respected, and i really do think we make a difference in both of these houses. >> now, i want to talk to you finally here, congresswoman, about health care. as you know, while the republicans have moved off of their mission for now to defund the health care law, it's no secret that the healthcare.gov website is having some difficulties technically in terms of its capacity, in terms of individuals using it. in fact here's what robert gibbs said on "now" yesterday about that. >> this is exkroucruciatingly embarrassing for the white house and the department of health and human services. this was bungled badly. i hope they're working day and night to get this done. when they get it fixed, i hope

they fire some people in charge of making sure this did work. >> so some very strong words from him. should someone be fired over this rollout, do you think? >> absolutely not. first of all, when we see the numbers that turned out to sign up on the exchanges, we're very, very pleased. and, yes, because so many people, millions, you know, wanted to enroll, wanted to get more information, it certainly did cause some glitches in the system. everybody knows that when you're talking about the new technology, you're going to have some glitches. you have something that you have to work out. and so we believe certainly that it will be worked out. this is not about firing somebody. if you work in a big complex, a big office in government, you will find that there are times when the system will go down, when there are glitches in the system. it happens. and so they're just using this oftentimes as a way by which to say aha, i told you so, this is not going to work. but we don't buy that. we're going to continue on the

road that we are on. we're going to get those exchanges up. some states are doing fantastically well, like my state of california, where the federal government has to step in and provide the exchanges when states would not do so, it takes a little bit more time oftentim oftentimes, but it will be done and it will work very well. >> congresswoman maxine waters, thank you so much for your time today. >> you're welcome. absolutely. >> again, we are waiting very shortly here to hear from speaker boehner at the microphone you see on the left-hand side of your screen. his response to what has been floated on the hill overnight, and that is that deal coming out of the senate. that deal including the lifting of the debt limit until february the 7th, to fund the government through january the 15th, formalize some budget talks with an end date before christmas and it could also include more flexibility for agencies to deal with sequester cuts. but we've also got word that the house, the house gop will be introducing a bill later on today that is different from

that and, hence, you heard some of the concerns there, congresswoman maxine waters saying she doesn't believe a deal is going to happen here. she is not at all optimistic. let's get back. dafna, you heard her talking about how women could get a deal done. she's also quite negative on what she is feeling, what she is hearing from her side of the aisle and, again, we're waiting for speaker boehner to come out and actually formalize what we believe will be their deal coming to the floor. >> i think she makes it very crystal clear that this is a test for boehner. can he put something on the floor that everyone is going to agree to that can get passed or, again, is he going to put something on the floor that caters to a very small number of members of his own party who have really held everybody hostage so far. i think that's really the question here. >> dafna, patrick, stand by. we're going to continue to watch those microphones on the hill. speaker boehner about to make some comments very shortly. stay with us, we'll be right

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10:17, we're watching the mike phones there on capitol hill. speaker boehner about to come out of the gop conference and make some comments. we'll go straight to that when it does happen. we have two deals being discussed right now. one is coming from the senate, pretty much a clean deal coming from that part of the hill and then on the other side, a deal that we're just hearing will come from the gop conference. notably does not have the defunding of obama care but does still have a delay of the medical device tax. we're waiting very shortly for that to happen and will go straight to the microphones when that does. i want to get to some other news. today we could get one step closer to a deal to rein in the iranian nuclear program.

there is a meeting in geneva hoping to agree on a new plan and things seem positive. e earlier iran laid out its proposals for potential agreement. negotiators want iran to take steps so it cannot make a nuclear weapon in exchange for lifting crippling sanctions. this comes about a month after president obama and iran's president had a phone call. one that had not happened in 15 years between the two countries' leaders. michael, thanks for being with us. as i mentioned, we may have to break away to go to speaker boehner. if that does happen, i'll let you know during our discussion. what will come of these talks that is meaningful? we've watched fits and starts here. >> well, richard, i think that the expectations for these talks are quite high, but they may be too high in a sense. because while there has been a new tone from the iranian side, a new savviness in the way

they're approaching this diplomacy, you haven't heard much in terms of a change in positions from the iranians. and of course while i think that the administration here sees this as a moment of opportunity, we also have tremendous leverage right now. i think we'll be loathe to sort of give up that leverage with anything but significant steps by innran to roll back their program. >> economic sanctions is what you're alluding to there. since putting those sanctions in place, they have had some teeth. iran's oil exports dropped to about 1.25 million barrels per day. that's half the 2011 rate. iran's currency dropped in value. inflation increased to over 50% in that country. yeah, so lifting economic sanctions, you're saying there are those who do not want to do it, but it's been floated out there. do you believe that this is what brought rouhani to the table? >> it does seem likely, richard. it seems like rouhani's election, the fact that he is

now iran's president is due in part to these economic sanctions. getting the sanctions lifted was the central pillar of his campaign. so i think that, yes, getting sanctions lifted will be his top priority, but he'll want to do it, of course, at the minimum cost to iran's nuclear program, to its nuclear options. and what we've heard from administration officials so far is that, yes, sanctions relief is on the table, but it's on the table only in exchange for very significant steps by iran. >> michael, talk about this. the president said iran has the right to access peaceful nuclear energy, very key set of words there. you've got that, but then in practical terms you do have, for instance, a group of ten by sold partisan senators who say wait a second, we want to clamp down further on iran. >> access to peaceful nuclear energy is something the p 5 plus 1 have said all along iran has a right under the nonproliferation treaty to have peaceful nuclear energy, but iran wants to take

that further and say we have a right to do specific things, like enrich uranium or plutonium. the president also said iran has to meet its obligations under the treaty and that's something iran wants to divorce from the right to enrich uranium. in fact iran policy has been shaped together between congress and the administration quite effectively so far. maybe inadvertently, but congress and the administration have together sort of put in place pressure as well as outreach. so i think, yes, congress wants to see that pressure maintained until we get something significant from iran and is willing to increase the pressure. >> jimmy carter has had extensive experience with what is happening in iran now and in the past and he said in eight to ten years, this is one of the best times in terms of discussions, opportunities for the united states and iran to be speaking with each other. but the question really is associated with that, can rouhani be trusted?

iranians have many reasons to dislike americans historically. we've got theocracy led by the ayatollah so is rouhani really trustable given those realities? >> well, i think you have to make a deal that allows space to open up for confidence to be built. i think if you look at, for example, the 1994 agreement with north korea that didn't result in increased confidence between the u.s. and north korea. in fact it's just left things now in many ways a worse place than they were in 1994. so really i think the key thing is for iran to come clean about its nuclear past. to really say we don't want nuclear weapons and we're willing to prove it and willing to open up our files and show you what we've done in the past. that, i think, would open up space for a better relationship between the u.s. and iran. it would still take, i think, a lot of time for that to take place but it would be possible. >> it is a start. okay, thank you so much, michael, for your time today. and we appreciate your perspective on what's happening in iran. that two-day meeting that's

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said. to politics now where hillary clinton is headed to virginia this weekend to stump for democratic gubernatorial candidate terry mcauliffe. he is a close family friend of the clintons and worked for both of their campaigns. sarah palin is on the move, headed to iowa next month and using her facebook page to drum up impeachment talk writing defaulting on our national debt is an impeachable ochbts. any attempt to raise the limit without congress is also an impeachable offense. could michelle obama's garden be the latest casualty of the shutdown. a blog about the white house's food initiatives writes gardeners are not allowed to harvest the crops and weeds are taking. hey, you guys comfortable? it's best-in-class rear legroom. and with a turbo engine that gets 35 highway m-p-g. you know j.d. power ranked passat the most appealing midsize car two years in a row? i bet, uh, dan here wishes somebody found him most appealing two years in a row.

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okay. straight to those microphones again. we're waiting to see speaker boehner any moment right now, and we're waiting for members of the house gop leadership as well as speaker boehner to come out from their closed-door meeting.

the focus here, a house proposal to reopen the government and avoid a potential economic disaster. joined now by congressman michael burgess, a republican from texas who was at the meeting -- you just walked out the door here, congressman. tell us what you know. >> literally. >> literally. and so tell us about what the elements are. we have some understanding from our reporting staff up there, luke russert, frank thorpe saying there's a list of things. what's in it? >> well, first off, one thing i have learned up here over the last several years is until something is written down, it's not real. so the fact that things were discussed means they may or may not be part of something later in the day. but in a list of very short positives for the republican conference, the calendar actually does work in our favor. there is a bill that came over here from the senate, one of the last proposals that we sent over to them before the shutdown actually occurred that came back to the house after they changed it. it is possible to change that

language and send it back to the senate. it does not have to go through a three-day rule so it actually could be voted on either this evening or tomorrow morning, avoiding the arbitrary date of the 17th as far as what we've been given by the secretary of the treasury, so as far as a positive aspect, yes, the house can send the senate something that can prevent any potential problem from avoiding the -- or broaching the so-called statutory debt limit. >> congressman, i want to go straight to the note that we got from our reporting staff there. this is part of the key points coming from what might be a house republican bill that will hit the floor later tonight. it would extend the debt ceiling to february the 7th, it would reopen the government to january the 15th, it would stop extraordinary measures from being used by the treasury, it would delay medical device tax by two years, it would take away obama care subsidies for house members and other lawmakers on the hill and eliminate obama

care protection for labor unions. does not appear to have any defunning of obama care. would you be agreeable to that? >> well, the elements that you've discussed are all consistent with elements that i've heard. again, until you see something written down and presumably we will get something in the rules committee later today. i'm going to reserve judgment until i actually see what's printed on the paper. but the elements that you've discussed are largely the elements that were discussed in conference. i'm sure the speaker when he comes out will lend more to that. >> okay, great. congressman, thank you for your response for that. you know congresswoman maxine waters just speaking to us a moment ago, she talked about the house plan on our program. take a listen. >> boehner is still held captive by the right wing conservative republicans mostly, led by the tea party. and i think they're going to come with a bill that will not be accepted on the senate side. >> is she right?

are members of the tea party caucus, which you're part of, holding up progress on this plan? >> wait, wait, wait. what the ranking member of the financial services committee is forgetting is the calendar date that was set not by the speaker, not by the tea party but by the secretary of treasury and that is a date that is very real in a lot of people's minds and one that should not be breached. so the fact that the house can pass a bill this evening, sending it over to the senate and then if the senate wants to breach that date, that will be up and on to the senate. if harry reid says that that date is unimportant to him, then fine, let's hear him say that. but realistically the -- speaker boehner has come -- crafted a plan that, again, you articulated a lot of the points. a lot of fairness for members of congress, being in the affordable care act, but we want the administration in there with us. i think that is only fair and people get that. sure, there's a lot more i would like to see in this, but right now it does have at least

something that may allow us to send a bill over to the senate tonight which would prevent passing through that october 17th. >> congressman, you have been very vocal about defunding obama care in your interviews in the past. >> can i just -- can i just speak to that? and that's why this is so important and why this fight is so important because this fight is over our structural -- this fight is over our structural deficit. unfortunately when the president came and talked to us during his charm offensive back in february right after the inauguration, he was asked a question about the national debt, about the structural deficit, and he shrugged his shoulders and said it's not important to me. i don't think it's really that big a deal. now, unfortunately it is a big deal. what he think was telegraphing to us was if it becomes a big deal it won't be during my second term but our children and grandchildren can't ignore it. if you don't do something to the affordable care act and scale it back, you're throwing gasoline on the fire, sir. >> you don't believe it will

kill the deal when we're looking at tea partiers saying hang on a second, we want a defunding of obama care. you're saying that's okay as a tea partier. >> no, i'm not. i'm saying the whole reason this fight has occurred in the first place is because of our structural deficit. now, if this gets us to a bridge where a fight can occur on another day, i'm willing to listen to the argument, but at this point that's -- that's all i'm prepared to say about the deal that's out there. >> okay. texas congressman michael burgess, thank you so much for your time today. blackberry says it's here to stay despite its sales slide. mandy drury is here with what's moving your money. mandy, blackberry taking a full-page ad. it's not the sexiest ad, it's all black and white here. several major newspapers have this ad this morning. what's their push right now? >> maybe they really needed to do this because customers like myself and partners of blackberry really needed to know they're going to be around and they're financially stable, even though there's a lot of bad press out there, right? well, not really bad but they

have announced massive layoffs, they are looking to sell all or part of the company so people have been worried about them. so in an open letter in 30 news outlets across nine countries, blackberry did stress that its customers can continue to count on blackberry and its products despite the challenges it's facing and lots of changes that are going on at the company. we've heard -- sources have told reuters they're in talks with cisco, google, sap, as an alternative to that preliminary $9 a share offer by the group that's being led by blackberry's biggest investor, fairfax financial. so the company is in flux. >> all right. we'll be watching that. and the government shutdown, which we were just talking about still in effect but that's not stopping the irs. they want their money. >> they sure do. >> they want it. >> yeah. if you applied and got that six-month extension back in april, your deadline is today. even though if you call the irs with a question, there isn't actually anybody there to answer right now.

i called them and didn't get a pick up. the government says it will accept and process all tax returns with payments, but don't expect your refund any time soon, richard. they say they're unable to issue those refunds during this time. but apparently most automated toll-free telephone applications remain operational. as you say, they're going to get their money regardless. >> all right. that's the way it always works, i think, here mandy. thank you so much. cnbc's mandy drury for that. we're again, still waiting for speaker boehner to come to the microphones. we'll have that right after this. oh yeah. the cinna-sweet taste you just can't resist. cinnamon toast crunch. crave those crazy squares®.

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upheld the university of michigan's affirmative action policy. opponents immediately launched a referendum campaign to ban affirmative action. then in 2006 michigan voters approved the ban. then last year, an appeals court ruled the referendum discriminatory. we're joined now by nbc news justice correspondent pete williams and judith brown dia dianes. pete, how big of a deal is this? >> reporter: potentially it could be a big deal. i think it's worth pointing out again, this is not about whether schools can have affirmative action if they want to, the supreme court has already said yes, it's the other side of it. can a state ban affirmative action and does it matter how it does it. what the opponents of the ban in michigan say is that it essentially changed the rules of the game. that proponents of affirmative action, if a student wants to go to the university of michigan or

wayne state and say my racial background should make a difference in my admission, that student would have to get a state constitutional amendment overturned. if a student wants to say my athletic background, the fact that i'm an expert fencer should count, they only have to go to the school to make that point. because of that disparity the opponents say this ban is racially discriminatory and won't stand and that's what the appeals court said. it's a tough sell here in the supreme court. one thing to bear in mind, richard, is that just eight justice its will hear this case. alana kagan is sitting this one out. the court has been skeptical of distinctions based on race so it's going to be a very hard go to persuade the supreme court. the mere fact that they took the case is a bad sign for the people who think that the lower court got it right. about eight states in all have similar bans on affirmative action, but there's a question here about whether the country's mood about affirmative action is changing. this nbc news/esquire poll that we've just done in the last

couple of days indicates that a majority of respondents in what you call the political middle, about 56% think the government should end affirmative action. >> judith, if you could join in the conversation here, some of those who have been watching these developments are looking at some of the statistics after the michigan amendment took effect in 2006. the number of black and latino students entering michigan's public universities dropped by a third. when you look at what we're discussing today, how big an impact will this ruling have on minority students? >> well, the question is whether or not minority students are being burdened by this law in other ways that other people are not. so, for example, if you are a legacy student, meaning that you had a parent or grand parent who went to the university, you could go to the university and say i should get in because my grandfather went here. but if you're african-american or latino and say in fact that i bring diversity to the university, you can't say that.

and the results is really significant. we need to understand that at the law school, the university of michigan law school, of 315 people admitted, only 14 were african-american. 4.4%. so this has real-life consequences for people of color. it also has real-life consequences for universities that really do treasure and think that diversity is important to the learning process and to the educational process for students. and so i think this case is important. it's also important about state ballot initiatives. and, you know, kind of the trickery and the deceptive kind of language that goes into state ballot initiatives and that get passed. and so things that get called, you know, things that are about equality are actually undoing equality by getting rid of affirmative action. >> a lot happening there in washington, d.c., as pete williams knows. thank you both. we'll have to leave it there, appreciate the time today.

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now, while we wait for speaker bane to speaker boehner to come on out, we're already hearing from democrats. >> for the house republicans to now come out and say we're going to do something contrary to what their senate republican colleagues are discussing seems to be a reckless attempt to try to circumvent what the senate is doing, which at this late hour, less than two days before we for the first time go over the cliff and allow our economy to be put at risk by not paying our bills, our past bills, that to me seems very irresponsible and it certainly falls far short of being common sense.

>> xavier becerra reacting. we're waiting for speaker boehner to come to the microphones. a deeply divided nation, with politicians saying they're simply reflecting their constituents. a new survey by nbc news and esquire shows the nation is not as polarized as we've been led to believe. here with the breakdown is the host of "the daily rundown" chuck todd with all that data. hey, chuck. >> look, according to our survey, it's washington that's polarized, it's not america that was polarized. more than half of americans make up the center. this part here, the conservative base, is 28%. the liberal base is about 21%. this center here makes up a majority of the country, 51%. now let me dig deeper into the center because the center isn't monolithic. here's the left made up of that

20%. we have lisa simpson and tyler perry. this is the gospel left plus the bleeding hearts. here's your right evangelicals represented by ned flanders and the talking radio heads. so there's your hard left and your hard right. guess what, most of america falls in the middle. think of the minivan moderates, claire dump free of "modern fami family," the pickup populous, our friends from the richardson family here, "duck dynasty" and then the whatever man. let me dig deeper into this. the minivan moderate, this is probably the most left-leaning of the center groups. they voted for obama in big number, mostly over social issues. most of them women, highly educated, fairly affluent and 37% have children at home. pro gay marriage, pro choice, pro gun control. but they want less government, they're big supporters of a balanced budget amendment. let's move a little closer to the center here. this is your businessman wing center of the party, the mba

middle. these were 49-49 voters between obama and romney. mostly male, highly educated and high income earners. biggest disparity is socially they're libertarian, fiscally very conservative. 86% want more personal responsibility, if you will, in people's lives. pick up by the boot strap. here's your pickup populous. in the '80s we called them reagan democrats. in the '90s they were the ones that clinton won back over. now some of them are tea party. they're very anti-wall street and anti-washington. 80% of them didn't graduate college. mostly live in rural south or the rural midwest, but 64% of them say they want government to do more to help them. this is why they don't fall conveniently on the right. and then finally is our whatever man. we had turtle from "entourage" that old show. this is a group of folks mostly white, one in three are single. 75% of this group is under 50. they use a lot of social media but don't use it to talk about

politics. 28% say politics doesn't affect their lives. they say they have no opinion on a lot of issues but broke pretty evenly, slightly more obama than romney, those that bothered to vote, richard, but that's your middle. the most important aspect of this, richard, it's a majority of the country is in the middle. minority are the ideologues. >> so, chuck, when we look at that then, the new american center that you're talking about, how do we put that together? which you know so well, which is happening there in washington. >> well, look, washington caters to the ideologues and that's how the house map is drawn, that's what's going on here. obviously u.s. senators, they get elected because they cherry pick just enough of the middle to get this through. that's how political strategists use this. i think the fact that the center is a lot larger than maybe the conventional wisdom in washington, that could turn into the wake-up call because this center, richard, they're very distrustful of washington and are losing faith that the political parties are the answer. >> political director chuck todd, thank you as always. >> you got it, buddy.

straight back to the place chuck knows so well, that is of course capitol hill. we are waiting very shortly here for speaker boehner to come to the microphones. we're hearing that it's very, very soon. he is in conference, at least he was over the last hour, and they were hammering through the solution, a deal that we're hearing from our luke russert and frank thorpe that will come to the floor there in the house sometime tonight. we've got that potential deal plus the deal that's over on the senate side and those two deals right now are up in the air. we'll see where they will go. they will go into the next hour, which is where we'll go next. thomas roberts picks it up from here. thomas, boy, a lot of questions and a lot of details to hammer out here. >> yeah, hopefully we'll have some of those to provide everybody in the next hour. breaking news will top our agenda in that hour. let's make a deal is the game that's being played and the house gop working on their own version to bring the u.s. back from the brink of default and get the government working once again, fired up. but the house deal contains

tweaks to obama care. so will it sell on the democratic-led senate? we've been down this road before but both sides do want to come to agreement before thursday's debt ceiling deadline so we'll see where it goes. and we have an all-star lineup of lawmakers as we watch these breaking developments unfold. we've got chris murphy, jim clyburn and marsha blackburn. also chris matthews will join me coming up this hour and we'll drag chuck todd back and talk about the whatever man, the turtles in the country. that and much more coming up in three minutes. stick around. time for the your business entrepreneurs of the week. mar beth shawn, billy gillen and sue steadman are main street survivors. they have each outsmarted a weak economy by expanding their business models and diversifying into more than one area. find out how they have kept main street alive on "your business" sunday morning at 7:30 on msnbc. building animatronics

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now about the behind-the-scenes negotiations taking place on capitol hill this morning with high drama over the government shutdown and the debt ceiling looming coming on thursday. a lot of wheeling and dealing, secret meetings and name calling as well. house republicans working on their own debt ceiling and government funding bill. senate republicans will soon meet behind closed doors about their deal to end the stalemate, one that prompted president obama to call minority leader mitch mcconnell yesterday and discuss it. this senate deal keeps the government funded until january the 15th. that's the same day a new round of sequestration kicks in. it raises the debt limit through february the 7th and creates a new conference to resolve major tax and spending issues by no later than december the 13th. now, the deal also allows agencies more flexibility with sequester-related cuts. meanwhile, the one in the house has minor tweaks to obama care but