he said yes twice. >> "morning joe" mortgaged by quicken loans. >> yes. mika, have fun at the beacon. >> i will. >> amazing theater. way too early, mike. what time is it? >> ordinarily, "morning joe." but right now -- is chuck there today? >> chuck is there. special guest star, this is amazing, raquel welch. >> mick jagger. with chuck todd. >> amazing. >> get your calendar ready. well, when push comes to shove a lot of closed-door discussions for finding a fiscal path forward, but could last week's rules revolt in the senate crush chances for a deal? we're going hear the latest from the top house democrat in the budget haggling, maryland's chris van hollen. and major potential headaches for the obama white house. a deep dive into the latest challenge from the health care

law that the supreme court might end up hearing. and a live report from afghanistan on the latest clash with karzai. also this morning an update on the winter storm winding its way east. looking like it will be a lot of rain but just how much will it mess up your thanksgiving travel? good morning from washington. it's tuesday, november 26th, 2013. this is "the daily rundown." we know for some of you it's your friday. so let's get right to my first reads of the morning. get ready for december deadlines. whether it's the expectation that healthcare.gov will be up and running by saturday, new health insurance enrollment deadlines for next year, now pushed back to the last week in december. or pressure on the u.s. to get a security pact signed with afghanistan before the end of the year. we're coming up on a big month of deadlines. but don't overlook two giant ones that the shutdown standoff put in place. december 13th, when budget negotiators led by congressman paul ryan in the house and senator patty murray are

supposed to get a deal done or at least a blueprint of a deal. then of course january 15th when the government runs out of money. and of course grinds to a halt if they don't do anything. forget a grand bargain. the house is in session just eight days before that december 13th deadline, and if you think that's bad, it gets worse. the senate doesn't return until december 10th, meaning the house and senate will only be in session together four days before that december 13th deadline. heck of a job, congress. the question is whether budget negotiators can beat the clock and close in on any small-scale budget deal before then. if nothing is done by the middle of january, then we have $109 billion in new across-the-board cuts, sequester two as it's called. it includes $52 billion in additional defense cuts because of the complicated way the cuts were put in place, it's the pentagon with which will feel the brunt of these new sequester budget cuts. defense secretary chuck hagel has been warning it's already

dangerously strapped now. >> these are too deep, too abrupt. the hammer has had to cancel final training rotations for seven brigade combat teams. that's more than 15% of the entire force. air force units lost 25% of the annual training events that keep them qualified for their assigned missions. and marine corps units not going to afghanistan are getting 30% less funding just as the service is facing more demands. >> of course that's brought some republican hawks like senators john mccain and lindsey graham to the table. but there are other conservatives not playing along, and right now more is off the table in negotiations than is on. and though democrats insist new revenues should be part of a new agreement, republicans have been saying that's a nonstarter. >> what we can't afford to do is to keep all the loop hopes that

are currently in place and lower the corporate tax rate. we would then blow another hole in the deficit that would have to be filled. >> if this becomes about raising taxes we e ear not going to get anywhere. >> senate democrats have taken changes to social security and medicare benefits off the table. senate majority leader harry reid put it pretty bluntly in one interview calling it sequester relief for social security changes. it'd stupid rather than making the hard choices necessary to compromise. they're repeating a different phrase like a broken record. >> we want to look for ways to find common ground. >> we believe we can find common ground. >> we're going to try to find how we can reach common ground. >> we can do the job we were sent here to do, find common ground between the resolutions and set a path forward. >> we told you this before. it's a big difference when you hear the words compromise or common ground. translags -- they're focusing on small-scale propose ls, many

left over from murray's days as the head of that super committee. airlines lobbying against a plan might raise a billion dollars a year by boosting security fees on nonstop flights from $2.50 to $5. democrats want to repeal some farm subsidies that the government makes to farmers whether or not they plant a crop. boehner has said that's no a no go but there are some republicans that would be okay with that. if democrats give on some taxes, a battle they haven't conceded yet, they do expect something in return. one possibility, extending jobless benefits for the long term unemployed. jobless ben if i wants for 1.3 million americans expire at the end of december. but with less than three weeks to go, democrats and republicans can't even agree on a top-line number. a bit of warning here. this is going to get a little weedy. the 2011 budget agreement set a cap of just over a trillion dollars for agency budgets. with the budget cuts of last year, that dropped to $987

billion. if nothing is done, then the overall cap will fall further to $967 billion. now, a billion here and a billion there, that's still a lot of money and a lot of new cuts that some people say the government can't really handle or at least this economy can't handle. now, senate republicans led by republican leader mitch mcconnell insist those caps should stay in place. senate democrats want them gone, and some house republicans are willing to give more wiggle room too. appropriators, in fact, are very itchy to get at least a top-line number to find out if sequester two is really going to kick in. most likely scenario may be another short-term budget agreement. house republicans have hinted they are working on a three-month continuing resolution. >> how we avoid the shutdown, whether or not patty and i come to an agreement with the budget agreement, or we just have what we call a continuing resolution that just keeps going, either one of those two scenarios will prevail and therefore we will

not have a government shutdown. >> i'm hopeful but if not the house will be prepared to move a cr at the bca levels. >> in other words, at the current lower spending levels, which democrats will oppose. one more thing, democrats have a little bit -- might have a little bit of an upper hand in these negotiations for one odd reason. republicans don't want to hold the line to the point where they distract from what they believe is a political good story for them and that is the health care rollout. it's a winning story for them they think. but can boehner keep conservatives in his conference in line? joining me now, chris van olen, top democrat on the house budget committee, one of the four you saw in that picture there when we heard patty murray and paul ryan use the common ground word rather than compromise. okay. so where are we at this point when it comes to at least finding out what is the top-line number going to be for the budget? patty murray and paul ryan going

to be able to announce that by monday morning? >> the short answer is no. >> okay. and all these other minor -- >> barbara mccull ski, the lead senate democrat on appropriations and hal rogers, lead republican, they wanted that number from the two of them. they're right to want it. these budget negotiations are moving way too slowly. >> why? >> as you indicated the time line is running -- well -- >> all these breaks you guys are taking? >> i don't think that's the fundamental issue. the fundamental issue has been the difference in opinion over some big issues. for example, republicans started the negotiation by actually taking things off the table. when you start by taking things off the table, it obviously makes it more difficult. so, for example, they said you can't replace the sequester even in part by eliminating one special interest tax loop hope. when you take that position, it simply makes things harder. so essentially what they said is they're prepared to see dramatic cuts in the budget including

defense, rather than deal with some of these special interest tax breaks p. >> the pentagon's panicking over this time. they were upset the last time. they managed through it. this time there is a sense -- there's sort of two concerns. one that chuck hagel doesn't have the ability that leon panetta and bob gates had to sort of make the case so there's a concern that these republicans aren't taking chuck hagel as seriously. >> well, i think the republicans should take the secretary of defense seriously because the cuts to both defense and nondefense will be very severe. defense will actually take a $20 billion cut compared to this year because last year -- >> basically the entire new skweser is defense? >> well, it's because defense actually was somewhat cushioned from quest sequester last year. not that they're being treated worse this year, that they're being treated the same as nondefense and the result is $20 billion in additional cults to defense. so what we've said to our republican colleagues, let's prevent these deep cuts from

happening both in defense and nondefense because the congressional budget office tells us it will cost us 800,000 jobs among other things. let's replace that with a combination of cults you mentioned and subsidies but also cuts to some of the special interests tax breaks. >> we have this airline fee. is that something that is common ground? >> well, that was something that actually was in the ryan budget and in the president's budget. whether or not we go that route i think is still undecided. >> and then we have these subsidies. there is probably a coalition there of republicans and democrats that might be okay with that? people don't that don't live in the midwest. >> i think everyone was scratching their heads when the speaker said you can't count the savings from reducing farm subsidies as part of sequester. if he takes that position, this is going to go nowhere. >> now, your minority leader, ranking colleague, senator -- the republican senator jeff sessions i assume mitch

mcconnell has said he doesn't want to change sequester at all. this is a dispute between senate and house republicans is that paul ryan does want to change sequester and sessions doesn't? is that what's happening? >> that's a good we. always hard to read the minds of the different republican leaderships, but, yes, mitch mcconnell came over the house, said let's settle for sequester at the end of the day. at the same time you had the republicans on the house appropriations committee from the chairman of the full committee to the chairman of all the subcommittees sending a letter to us saying the sequester means leads to a broken process, fix it. so in this case house republicans, some of them apparently, do want to help us fix the sequester. >> all right. let's try to put this on. going to be a small deal? >> small in scope. >> is it likely to be first a continuing resolution, something that -- your deadline is going to get extended? >> i hope not, chuck. >> you think you guys can go on this time line and january 15th pass something for the rest of the year? >> i'm not sure. way things are progressing right now it's not moving at that

pace. but the continuing uncertainty is really bad for the economy, bad for the budget process. we need to get an agreement. and people have to do more than try and reach common ground. people are going to have to make some compromises. >> i want to ask you about the iran deal here. do you think congress is going to end up sendings the president a new tougher sanctions bill in the next six months? >> i do not think congress will do anything to impose additional sanctions on iran during the current six months. >> you think they will basically give the president the six-month window? >> i do. now, is it possible congress would take up a sanctions bill that would, for example, trigger in if iran were to violate the terms of the six-month deal? that's something that congress could consider. my view is we should be really careful not to upset a tra jill negotiation that has the potential, certainly not the certainty but the potential to

prevent iran from continuing on the path -- >> you're a little more optimistic than some of your colleagues. >> i -- look, my view, as people have said, don't trust, verify, and this agreement, as you know, has very, very comprehensive verification provisions. >> chris van hollen, ranking democrat on the house budget committee. come on. ten days. right here. >> right here. >> i understand. between november 22nd and january 15th you guys are in session a total of ten days? i mean you understand why you guys are so unpopular? >> we have said no vacation. >> i hear you. >> no budget. >> seriously. the vacations are controlled by different people. >> but you're right. we shouldn't be going home without a budget deal. >> thanks for coming in. >> all right. are we destined to be fighting over fiscal issues forever? did going nuclear make it worse? one of the capitol hill budge t et gurus will be here next. we'll discuss that. some developing news that morning. that security agreement that

secretary of state john kerry struck with afghanistan last week is in serious jeopardy as afghanistan's always elusive and reclusive president hamid karzai is now suddenly making new demands. first a look at today's politics planner. president wraps up a trip out west. going to be at dreamworks studios today. gets home late tonight because somebody's got to pardon that turkey tomorrow. a can of del monte green beans? ♪ ♪ if i was a flower growing wild and free ♪ ♪ all i'd want is you to be my sweet honeybee ♪ ♪ and if was a tree growing tall and green ♪ ♪ all i'd want is you to shade me and be my leaves ♪ grown in america. picked & packed at the peak of ripeness. the same essential nutrients as fresh. del monte. bursting with life™.

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one of washington east most knowledgeable budget veterans is one of the most pessimistic.

he says the nuclear option taken last week by senate democrats made things worse. "the most immediate legislative impact of the nuclear option and the first chance for retribution by the gop will be on the budget." mr. calender is one of the few who's worked for the house and senate budget committees and writes regularly on fiscal and budget issues. stan, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> we are at some deadlines that actually you sort of said we were going to end up at, which is they would punt, punt, punt, maybe with a shutdown, but it still wouldn't get resolved until january. okay. you just heard chris van hollen. we've got ten concurrent days that the house and senate -- excuse me e -- four concurrent days that the house and senate are in session together before january 15th. where are we? >> well, remember, they don't actually have to vote on a deal by december 13th. that's the deadline they were given in the legislation for the conference committee. if they come up with something

by december 13th, congress could still stick around to vote on it in december if they wanted to or more than likely come back in january before the 15th when the continuing resolution will expire. >> all these guys are so burned out from having spent every single december all the way up to the brink, i think we're at four decembers in a row, i know there is no appetite to do that this time. >> my point would be get over it. you caused this yourself. it's the same problem. the fact you're around in december is only because you didn't pass the appropriations fwils earlier in the year. >> sticking point one is just agree on a number. >> right. >> and that apparently -- >> can i stop you? >> yeah. >> actually the first sticking point is whether they want to have an agreement. that's the difference between now and the '80s. when you had a committee together, there was decision up front, we're going to do this. >> they don't want an agreement? who? >> everybody. look, it's hard to imagine democrats agreeing to changes in social security and medicare -- >> that's something mass frif the other side. >> and the oh side is not going to give -- the package you

played with patty murray and paul ryan, they basically said those are off the table. the best you're going to do is a small deal and it's not even clear to me that's something they want to. don't forget, the default is spending cuts with the sequester. >> no incentive for republicans to deal. >> not really. everybody tells me they want to stop the defense cuts. i believe that. >> some, not all. >> the problem with the sequester is it was supposed to be the worst possible alternative. it is except compared to everything else. that is compared to tax increases where medicare and social security changes -- you know, tights best possible alternative. >> i can tell you that the white house in hindsight now thinks -- they admit they miscalculated what they say is the rand paul laying of the republican party, which doesn't value the defense department in the same way the reagan republicans of the '80s did. >> it was an understandable mistake give than we had 20, 30, 40, 50 years of republicans defending defense spending.

but it's now a given at this point. if it comes down to a tax increase versus a defense cut, the tax increase will win every time. republicans absolutely do not want to increase taxes and politically can't do it before the next presidential election. >> what actually happens on january 15th? >> i think the best you're going to see is, you know, something that avoids a sequester, that is, just a one-year, short, small deal. >> how do they buy it at this point, though? literally this airline fee? that's one? >> that or spectrum -- they get you onetime revenues that aren't considered taxes and maybe a few small things on the spending side. they add a little more for defense, a little more for spending but that's a kick the can kind of thing. >> so are we on this hampster wheel for another three years, four years? >> i have been telling my clients for a year the most likely time we'll get the grand bargain, the big deal that everyone's been talking about is 2019. >> okay.

why? >> tax reform is a two, three, four-year process and remember it was in the '80s and that was when it was revenue neutral. without tax reform that adds revenues you're not going to get the big changes on entitlements. so republicans can increase revenues before the 2016 election. the clock starts to run on tax reform after 2016, 2017. we're talking about two or three years to make that happen. >> the midterms of 2018 will decide which party has the upper hand and what you think will be true, big negotiations for big grand bargain. six years from now, stan? >> six years. that means you and i will be talking about this kind of budget by crisis management for the next six years. >> has there ever been a worse period? >> not in terms of the budget, certainly. nothing has been like this before. >> the only way they can change it is if voters truly revolt and figure out how to punish both parties at the same time. >> or put one party in power. >> in a massive way.

>> hard to imagine that happening until redistricting. >> unbelievable. >> by the way, happy thanksgiving. >> if you decide to just fall asleep for the next six years, you get to wake up to a grand barga bargain. i'll try to have you on before 2019. >> great. thanks. >> a delicious databank for you. as tens of millions of americans hit the road and the sky, we'll have the latest on how much this winter weather will be messing um your thanksgiving day travel plans. but first today's trivia question. during the 2010 election cycle, how many ex-governors br unsuccessful in their attempt to win back their former seattles? we know jerry brown and terry branston won, but who didn't? ♪ ♪ ♪

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holiday travels will have to fight sleet, rain, ice, and snow to get to their destinations in the next 48 hours. the weather is still icy and cold in some of the nation's biggest travel hubs including chicago. the roads are a bit better in milwaukee today after a nasty commute last night. in the south, the rain turned to sleet overnight. and you know what that means for drivers in places like nashville, still dealing with slick streets. the sleet and cold could make for airport delays especially in atlanta. always have to change in atlanta. fewer flight cancellations at the dallas-ft. worth airport. pretty good news. but the roads are still a bit treacherous. so the northeast is now the biggest concern for snow and rain, but the bigger story could be the cold that a's across the country for the holiday. let's go to our buddy, msnbc meteorologist bill karins, to get the update. travel-wise, it looks like we e

we're -- it's not going to be that bad? >> it's going to clear out. my biggest advice, if you listen to anything i say right now, as we go through wednesday, travel as late in the day as possible if you're traveling. bottom line. the worst weather will be earlier in the northeast. right now we still have issues out there. snowing in pittsburgh. about a half an inch to an inch on the ground on interstate 80 across the pennsylvania turnpike. d.c. has a cold rain developing over the city. west of town, western virginia got a coating of ice overnight. that turns to rain as temperatures warm up today. the storm is still all the way in louisiana, so we have about 46 hours of dealing with this mess. as far as the airports go today, right now we're okay, but i think later as the rain picks up, significant delays will be atlanta, charlotte, and raleigh, just plain old rain, though, so a lot of the airports will be able to deal with it. d.c. light rain, shouldn't cause too many problems. the worst will be the winds early tomorrow morning and during the overnight hours tonight. the new york airport, d.c., baltimore to boston, that's when the winds will be howling and the worst of it. pittsburgh will be all snow for

you. as far as snow goes, pittsburgh, buffalo, syracuse, everyone in those vicinities could pick up 4 to 8 inches. let me give you the timing of this so you know when to travel. this is 4:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. the worst of it exiting the d.c. area. horrible conditions, philadelphia, new york, southern new england, windy conditions. new york city clears out about 11:00 a.m. and boston doesn't clear out till about 5:00 p.m., 6:00 p.m. if you're around the mid-atlantic you should be fine to travel during the day on wednesday but in the northeast wait as long as possible. >> or travel right now. >> your time eeltsz running out. it's going to start raining pretty good down there soon. >> all right, mr. karins. we'll hold to that exact schedule. >> yes, sir. now our databank for numbers making political news. democratic gains and a study about republicans and their daughters. but we start with this number. 63. that's the number of seconds a heckler managed to spend

disrupting the president's speech on immigration. in the end, the president told his secret service not to intervene. >> what i'd like to do -- no, no. don't worry about it, guys. okay. let me finish. how about -- these guys don't need to go. let me finish. no, no, no. you can stay there. let me -- >> president repeated the need for congressional action on immigration reform. republicans in the house have agreed to take up the issue in pieces. but that may not happen until sometime next spring. next up, the number three, that's the number of top florida republicans now officially calling for congressman trey rad radel's resignation. lenny curry has joined collier county republicans and lee county republicans in publicly asking for him to step countdown.

he checked into rehab last week after getting arrested in a federal drug sting in october. don't be surprised if house republicans follow suit since florida republicans have taken the lead on the resignation calls. the next number, 165, the number of votes by which democrat mark herring has officially or certifiably defeated republican mark obenshain. that's 165 votes out of more than 2 million votes cast. this isn't over yet. obenshain can challenge the results but if herring does win, democrats would control all five statewide offices in virginia for the first time since 1969. but there is going to be a recount, folks. 7. that's the point difference between ohio governor john kasich and his little-known challenger, ed fitzgerald. just a reminder, the incumbent in a bit of trouble. the new quinnipiac poll released today shows fitzgerald inching up in the race even though he's relatively unknown. kasich still leads among republicans but right now he's

under 50. finally, 11, that's the percentage, how much more likely you are to identify as a republican if you only have daughters. a study published today by pew research found that if you only have daughters and no sons you're more likely to be a republican. bush-cheney, they all had daughters only. right? it's called the daughters effect. it seemed to hold true for president bush but not so much for presidents clinton and obama. there you go. up next, supreme challenge. we're taking a deep dive into what could be the next hurdle for the president's health care law. [ dennis ] it's always the same dilemma -- who gets the allstate safe driving bonus check. rock beats scissors! [ chuckles ] wife beats rock. and with two checks a year, everyone wins. [ female announcer ] switch today and get two safe driving bonus checks a year for driving safely. only from allstate. call 866-906-8500 now. [ dennis ] zach really loves his new camera. problem is...this isn't zach.

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before using her new bank of america credit card, which rewards her for responsibly managing her card balance. before receiving $25 toward her balance each quarter for making more than her minimum payment on time each month. tracey got the bankamericard better balance rewards credit card, which fits nicely with everything else in life she has to balance. that's the benefit of responsibility. apply online or visit a bank of america near you. the president's personal secretary, rosemary woods, was re-called to explain how she accidentally erased 18 minutes of a conversation with the president three days after the watergate break-in. >> daily flashback.

this day in 1973 when president nixon's secretary told a federal court that she was the one responsible for the 18:30 gap in a key watergate tape. i choose to believe in the movie "dick" how it really got erased. it was two teenaged girls, of course. now to a deep dive into what may be the next supreme court challenge. atish sthu, the health care law's environment that employers offer free birth control coverage for their employees. when that mandate was unveiled, religious organizations were outraged, insisting it violated their beliefs and their constitutional rights. >> bishops have tried our best to make sure that we keep the conversation elevated to reeli jous freedom. it's really that hhs intrusion that bothers us. >> ultimately, the administration carved out an

exemption for some 350,000 churches and religious organizations. but now some for-profit businesses are insisting that they should be exempt too. supreme court may decide as early as today whether to hear a lawsuit from hobby lobby stores, the oklahoma-based business run by a business saying offering their employees birth control would violate their religious freedom, one of 42 cases filed by for-profit companies on similar grounds. the key question, whether those companies can claim the same constitutional rights as individuals. so far decisions among the lower courts have been mixed. for instance, in finding against one of those companies the third circuit court of appeals said this -- determining that a for-profit corporation can engage in religious exercise would eviscerate the fundamental principle that a corporation is a distinct entity from its owners. but in hobby lobby, the court ruled for the company and says the court has neve made a

decision on this issue one way or the other. they cited the citizens united case as a supporting argument. we see no reason the supreme court would recognize constitutional protection for a corpse's political expression but not its religious expression. joining me now, pete williams. i keep wanting to say corporations are people too. the famous line by mitt romney. that's the question, right? this. >> one of the questions. there was a law passed by congress in 1993. we're not really talking about the freedom of le rely onclause in the first amendment but a law passed by congress in '93 called the religious freedom restoration act and it said that persons can assert a religious objection to federal laws. the question here is hobby lobby a person, the tenth circuit said yes, because corporations get lots of personal rights. the statutes are divided on this. the supreme court has never decided this question. and while it's certainly interesting to look at citizens

united, i don't think that gets you all the way there. here's the problem. if the supreme court says, as it might, that a company like hobby lobby can assert a religious freedom claim, what's to keep any company from saying we don't want to serve joos, we don't want to hire -- >> that's the slippery slope here. >> right. that's what the supreme court has to be very concerned about. now, there's no question hobby lobby runs itself in a religious way, owned by five family members in oklahoma who all are very religious. hobby lobby stores are closed on sundays. you can't find a shot glass in the store because they don't want to promote alcohol. their trucks don't do what many companies do. they don't backhaul, pick up beer on the way, because they don't want to help with people consuming alcohol. so they do run their business in a very religious way. i think one question is, is it basically a religious entity or a business. that's one question. a second question is, you know, as i said, where do you draw the line here. citizens united, though, was

relied on in the tenth circuit. they said, gee, the supreme court has said a corporation gets some first amendment protection. >> right. but won't the supreme court essentially say, well, hobby lobby, you can set yourself up as a different type of entity, if you want to have this religious freedom, you can set yourself up as a nonprofit? >> well, except that it's not. it's not a nonprofit. that doesn't really solve the problem for a lot of other cases like this. 40 other cases like this around -- >> all similar groups? companies that are owned by very religious people who don't want to -- >> there's a menon ite-owned woodworking business, a catholic owned auto parts company. there are lots of companies like this. it carves out other nonprofits that are basically on a religious mission. really, that would just duck the question. the real question is what about for-profit companies. the lobby stores don't object to

providing all coverage. they object to four things, two kinds of morning-after pills, two kinds of iuds. they say those are tantamount to abortion. >> how is this going to play out? watching kennedy or more complicated? >> i think it could be more complicated because of the slippery slope issue, you know, where do you draw the line. >> sounds like you think the court is definitely going to take this, don't you. >> it seems pretty clear. the lower courts are all over the place on this. they've struck down a law in the lower courts. those are regular peas for the court taking it. >> pete williams, going to be interesting. >> it is. >> some developing news overseas today. the fate of u.s. troops in afghanistan still hangs in the balance. a meeting between national security adviser susan rice who went to afghanistan to meet with hamid karzai and their little dinner didn't go very well. plus, nuclear reaction from the streets of tehran. the historic deal to temporarily stop iran's nuclear program.

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with enbrel. still running in the morning? yeah. getting your vegetables every day? when i can. [ bop ] [ male announcer ] could've had a v8. two full servings of vegetables for only 50 delicious calories. it's been a busier holiday week with developing news in afghanistan where susan rice has just left after failing to broker a deal with president hamid karzai over keeping u.s. troops in the country. rice said this about the talks earlier this morning. >> if the agreement isn't signed properly, what i said to the president is we would have no choice. we would be compelled by necessity, not by our preference to have to begin to plan for the

prospect that we be will not be able to keep our troops here because they will not be invited because the bsa will not have been signed. >> chief foreign correspondent richard a richard engel is monitoring the negotiations. is this karzai being karzai, the flaky guy that the u.s. is used to dealing with, never knowing where he's going to come down on an issue, saying all sorts of threatening things and then finally doing what we ask, or is this deal in real jeopardy? >> reporter: it seems like this deal is in real jeopardy, but it's very hard to know. this could be karzai negotiating, him posturing or karzai has taken a decision that he wants to make a deal with the taliban, make a deal to reintegrate the opposition into the future government of afghanistan, and in order to do that he can't have a deal with the united states. so i really don't think we know at this stage how serious karzai

is. i've spoken to many different afghan officials and some of them have told me they don't think that karzai wants a deal with the united states. they think he would rather be the person who signs a deal that sees american troops leave with some integration process. if you look at the new demand karzai is putting forward, putting this deal in jeopardy, they're all about the taliban. he wants the united states to release militants, afghans from gaugh guantanamo bay. he wanls the united states to allow and support a negotiated settlement between karzai's government and the taliban and wants no more combat missions. these are all demands that the taliban has put forward as a precondition to having some sort of integration talks with him. >> what's unique about this negotiation between the united states and karzai is politically the easier decision for the united states is to say to

karzai, you know what, okay, good-bye, because the public is not on board keeping any more troops over in afghanistan post 2014 if it's simply to keep karzai safe. >> that is the easy decision politically this week and this new cycle, but where i am here on american outpost in eastern afghanistan, it is not so simple because so many american troops, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, really, have sacrificed so much cycling through this country on deployment after deployment. when we speak to troops here, they don't want all their past deployments to have been for nothing. they don't want to leave and see this country collapse into a civil war. as for karzai being willing to risk that or not. the war in iraq didn't end up going as smoothly as i think a lot of u.s. commanders had hoped it would be after the pullout. so now u.s. troops pull out of

the country completely and leave it to chance, it would be not only a stain and a problem for afghanistan and the united states would have two wars that -- >> i understand what you're saying, richard, but realistical realistically, the united states leaves after 2014 or 2024, do we really think that somehow a civil war won't break out once the united states is no longer the referee? >> reporter: i've been speaking to a lot of u.s. military commanders and been touring this country for the last two weeks now and initially i was quite convinced that as the u.s. numbers drew down there would be a civil war. but i've talked to a lot of afghan security commanders, u.s. military commanders and they think if they keep a handle on -- most importantly keep funding the afghan security forces, then there is a chance there won't be a civil war, that the afghan security forces will be able to maintain some degree

of stability in this country, that there will be an insurgency but not a collapse of the nation. and there is a real concern that u.s. forces just pull leave tha national collapse. the taliban is running a shadow government already. it is present in probably about half of the land mass of this country, less of the population centers, so if the u.s. just left, then the chance -- the end result is quite clear. but if they stayed, according to u.s. officials and some afghan security officials, at least there's a chance that it doesn't just fall apart. >> all right, richard engel in eastern afghanistan for us this morning. richard, stay safe. thank you, sir. well, here in the united states, the nuclear agreement with iran has been met with a healthy dose of skepticism. but over in iran, the mood has been a lot more optimistic. iranians are hoping less sanctions will lead to a stronger economy and a better quality of life. nbc news's tehran bureau chief

ali aruzzi joins me now on the phone. what can you say about the real public reaction to this deal, what you're hearing on the streets? >> reporter: well, chuck, we've been out on the streets all day today filming, talking to people, and there's a real mood of euphoria here. people are really happy that this deal happened. there's a sense of optimism in this country that i haven't seen in a very, very long time. albeit a little bit cautious. people really want the standard of their lives to change. they want the price of things to come down. and for the first time they have a reason to be optimistic. they never have had before. now they see light at the end of the tunnel. everybody we talked to across the board, whether it was a baker or fish monger or mechanic were complaining over the years the price of all goods have gone up astronomically in the country

and the quality has come down. they say they're sick of buying chinese goods that don't work. we want to buy european, american products at decent prices, so this was very telling. chuck? >> ali arouza. well, in america we buy a lot of chinese products too these days. ali on the streets of tehran this morning. thanks. we'll have more of your reporting all day long and on nbc nightly news tonight. trivia, two ex-governors were unsuccessful in their attempt to win back their former seats in 2010. georgia democrat roy barnes and bob urlich. send your trivia suggestions to daily rundown@msnbc.com. i'm going to stretch a little bit because i can't ever get enough of this song. it's a happy song for me. we'll be right back. ♪ rocket man

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very quickly, time now for my final takeaway of this holiday week. today a little reflection on thanksgiving. thursday's holiday is what i'd like to refer to as the consensus building holiday. it's pretty hard to politicize thanksgiving. we've done it with every other holiday. i think we've actually avoided doing it to thanksgiving, thank goodness. it's the holiday that seems to best represent and explains who we are as americans. and so as we all unite around the table, around this same cause, our household, we joke it's passover for everyone else, but we want to know what you're thankful for this year. so join the conversation with the #whyi'mthankful. it's my favorite holiday of the year because it's the least political and it is the one where everybody begrudgingly or even happily get together. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." coming up next is chris jansing. i will see you in december.

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call, go online, or visit your local store today. 32 states and 200 million people expected to deal with a winter storm bringing snow, rain and tricky travel for thanksgiving. >> reporter: i'm tom costello at atlanta's hartsfield jackson international airport where it is cold and wet today and expected to come down even more in the coming hours. we have some delays and cancellations. those could build. this is the busiest airport in the world. 63 million people coming through here last year. we could see significant delays rippling across the country because what happens here affects thousands of flights directly and even more indirectly. >> here in chicago the skies are clear and lines are moving smoothly, but with so many passengers connecting through this hub, any delay