>> it's right there. >> he tweeted it out. >> you did well. conservative views that i don't know about. if it's way too early, it's time for "morning joe." up next is "the daily rundown." we there yet? one thing president obama and republicans can agree on is 2013 was a mess. they can't wait to ring in the new year politically. the mid-term mayhem may start with a series of seven senate primaries that can make or break republican hopes for complete capital control. with just about 750 days before the first votes for 2016, both partieses aing a fight between the establish and outsiders. welcome to the special edition of the daily run down. looking back of the highs and lows of this year. shay shape the next two years of american politics.

washington pulled off the vote and house republicans had their worst years since coming into power. they started with high hopes. the worst year in office and washington's worst year in a generation. no single reason explained the downturn with a series of setbacks. the 52% job approval is near an all time high. difficulties began with the benghazi questions on capitol hill and the irs issue that came under scrutiny and the wake of edward snowden. they voted to september brought another slide. they launched a chemical weapons attack. indecisive publicly.

they have a shut down that showed he didn't get it. the health care roll out clobbered him and it's the biggest thing in his administration. in the past when he experienced a dip in his ratings, his likability has eroded and set up a fork in the road moment. the past three two-term presidents had the same thing. reagan and clinton recovered and did not. the next year will determine when side president obama ends up o. the sting of the 2012 defeats and the stench of tanking party brand approval set the stage for the chairman to call for a sort of internal attitude audit for the party that produced an election autopsy and a prescription for rebranding. how did the issue measure up to

the reports prescriptions. the report and immigration. her role in ending racism passed the gop as out of touch. an extreme example, but an immigration bill backed by senators stalled in the house. several legislatures on the issues this year. in washington house republicans split food stamps that benefit from subsidies that led to a law of farmers and farm bill. then there was the government shut down that turned into unmitigated rattling the pessimism in confidence. the republican party had a negative rating of over 50%. that's where it ends to you.

if republicans somehow win in montana, south dakota and virginia. they need to win three out of these four. now the declining numbers are a problem for the president. they get nationally much closer to 50. it's hard to see how any inreelection if his job approval is sitting at 45% or lower. in the red states, he is

probably at or below 40. the health care law is likely to be a drag if things don't improve. it's much worse than the president. before republicans can win back the senate, the senate republicans run a gaunt the of gauntlet. there is the question of whether any democrat can pull in auliffe and do something democrats had not been in the obama era. win with the voting coalition without the president himself on the ballot. i pulled that off in virginia. house and senate will testify between the two parties. which will be more powerful than the attacks on the insablt to

govern. the health care law. the public wants to punish and not sure about the reward. the last time they felt like it was in 1992. there was a republican president who seemed out of touch and a democratic party who had broken the party's brand of 40 years in power and looked like they were

corrupt with the most famous at the pop of the ticket. voters didn't reward the majority. clinton won 43%. he picked up house and senate seats. the majority of americans say they belong to neither party. a rarity in decades. they have a huge problem and if they don't watch out, they have outside a political force. a gaggle of political junkies. 2013, 14, 16. all on this agenda. politics planner. you are watching a special year end edition of the daily run down, only on msnbc. [ sneezes, coughs ]

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. here's a tough question. what was your political highlight. naming a low light was almost too easy. president obama had plenty this year. both the democrats and the leaders got pummelled. everyone is ending lower than they started. the decision to leak what might be a million secret documents is causing problems. the highlight of this year could be getting am nest fre a country like brazil. the supreme court overturned the defense of marriage act and gay marriage is legal in seven states. background checks for guns and gun state of. dianne feinstein's bill to limit

clip size did not get enough support. this can be a highlight or a low light. ted cruz had a 21 hour talk-a-thon attacking the affordable care act. it didn't do anything to block the law and the roll out of the law might be a highlight or low light as well depending on your point of view. we are going to get to the lowlights. there is so much more to talk about. when you look at the things that happened to president obama, if he had the edward snowden and nsa thing, if he just had the check, if he just had the difficulty, but all three had been i think a giant thing on

the show. >> absolutely. it's the region that they declared he had the worst year in washington. the year when a lot of people had bad years. when you go through that list, not only that, but when you look at the trajectory of what happened to him since a year ago since reelection. he came out of that reelection feeling emboldened. we saw it in the way he responded after new on the guns and in his inaugural address and he had a progressive agenda that he was determined to push hard and you look the where he is today. >> you see the republicans and you should sit there and say if you look at the president and say boy, republicans should be in a good position and perhaps they should be. >> they found a way to grab

defeat and particularly the fixation of obamacare became an obsession to the point where they were blinded. they make it on the economy and jobs and things like that. they brought themselves to the same point as president. i will side with the president in most cases, their numbers dropped lower. they learned one thing, to keep their mouth shut and let the administration do what they were going do. they were pulling at the straws and grabbing as much as they can to get them back to the democrats. >> there is a bigger issue going on and i'm wondering between shut down, you have an average public that looks at the republicans and thinks these guys don't want it and they look at the democrats and say that. i spend a lot of time with them.

they don't know how to do it. >> they have been sending it. every year in 2006. 2008. 2010 and 2012. that's exactly what it is. the message has been the same. stop focusing on yourself and start focusing on us. the middle class is struggling and you need somebody that will come here and actually talk to us rather than talk at us. you have been pushing for a driven agenda. we are not as interested in guns and immigration as you are. we are not interested in shutting the government down. we are not interested in the deficit. >> nobody is. >> exactly. >> the republicans had it right there. let it go. >> it's interesting when you look at it. we look at president obama and some people say the presidency, you take a step back, this is

the fourth two-term president in a row that had a bad fourth or 6th year. how does he do it? how does he prevent himself from being bush 43 and like clinton. >> i think he can. some things are out of his control. for example, the economy is improving and many people don't feel better. if it were to change it could be slow, but in the next year, people feel more -- >> every year it's the feeling that -- >> there is a disconnect between how they suggest the economy is doing and how people feel. if that starts to change with aca roll out. on the state exchanges that function much better, we start seeing success stories. those are really in some ways beyond his control. the other thing is what happens in 2014. if democrats lose the senate, for example, his ability it get

things done massively change. not that they had the ability to get things done. i think he can. the problem for him is a lot of this is out of his control. >> what is in his control? >> in his control is the power of the presidency. one of the things we are seeing is they have made a transition from the idea of we have got to work through congress to the idea of other ways to get things done. >> for the white house to go around. >> the hiring jobs, they spent a lot of time thinking and writing about the use of executive action. they have ideas in mind. the power of the presidency is limited in those ways. executive actions take a long time to put into place. he has what they try to get them to do things on the economy that they haven't been doing. >> very quickly, by the end of

2014, will the president's approval ratings be closer to 50 or closer to 40? >> closer to 40. >> closer to 40. >> i suspect between 40 and 50. >> i think he's about right in the middle. >> around 45. >> 44 to 46. >> i am in that, i think he can get up to 47 or 48. we will talk about the highlights of 2014. i thought it was interesting. two of you said pope francis. dan and michael. you both picked pope francis as a political highlight of the year. >> the benefit was one of the great triggering events for the church. it is now opened up what many are perceiving as a renaissance. all the doctrine and dogma and

the last 33 years is taking a new shape in the form of a pope who is saying let's care for the poor. that is going to have a long-term ramification we see in policy relating it to what francis did. >> many of the similar reasons if you put it in context. there was an unexpected election. he wasn't on anybody's short list. he brought a change and he showed the power. >> it was in many ways stunning and surprising. it will be significant if it signals what democrats do which is a shift. >> that's right. >> because it's new york city, i don't think that's true. you see hinds of it in any elections and san diego and other places. you start to see democrats who

are gearing up for 14. the reason why i picked that as a highlight is in a president of cynicism and with no message on the economy from either party, he offered a clear announcement of the problem and a set of answers. the governing is difficult, but that's leadership. talking about what people thought about bloomberg. i think that you look at wendy davis, people are speaking truth to power. we don't have a lot of that right now. >> you said whoa, baby. the red sox. they figured. i hear you. i think we will see a year from now how right you are. much more of this holiday gaggle ahead. we will spend a lot of time talking about 2016. a little 2015 for good measure because you care about the

kentucky governor. the phrase that sums up this year in politics, i will you at the end of the year. all thanks to nancy pelosi. you are watchinged t ining "the rundown." you're comfortable here. it's where you email, shop, even bank. but are you too comfortable? these days crime can happen in a few keystrokes. american express can help protect you. with intelligent security that learns your spending patterns, and can alert you to an unusual charge instantly.

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and unusual dreams. i had to quit smoking to keep up with this guy. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. >> a special edition of the daily run down. mid-term madness. why the calendar could be key for the conservatives challenging senators in the primaries. first in 1789, 12,105 individuals have served in congress. how many of those members have served in both chambers? the answer and more is coming up. the answers are hard to google in a few minute it is. we'll be right back. ♪

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caesar, but it could be a warning to republicans as well. a number of veteran senators have to survive challenges beginning in the spring and beginning in march. we want to put these races in chronological order since what happened was important. if the establishment wins big, conservatives will stand less of a chance later o. heavy hitters are up in texas. they face congressman steve stockman, it's a march 4th crime rate. mitch connell takes on kentucky on may 20th. chris donald in mississippi and against a slew of candidates on the 10th, including lee bright on and that can end up in a run off. that's another story. when we get into the midsummer, we should have a good idea of where things stand. the last few races will be more

difficult. if they win one or two early o. it could have a domino effect. a factor that can draw more candidates into the mix. that could mean trouble for pat roberts whose primary is august 5th and the tennessee primary is the seventh of august. the last watch is in wyoming. that's on the 19th of august, but this is not like the others. this is with our without the tea party. wu once we are through the summer, they pick up six seats and the best shot they had in years. 35 seats will be up for grabs. 14 by republicans. it gives republicans a lot of path to majority. seats are being left open and five are democrats. harvey and johnson and rockefeller are retiring. two are republicans. they have a good shot at several

heats. they are targeting red states like alaska and arkansas. louisiana and all vulnerable red state democrats. you are of the party that has to defend the senate. i want to start with the primaries. basically if it wasn't for the senate prime easier, would you be more nervous? i didn't bring up georgia. they are the one lone seat. the democrats have a shot at it because of a messy republican primary. without the primary, democrats would be. >> that's right. i also think that the problem they face which is endemic is not just upset. it's in the house and why the brand is so terrible. it's because of the tea party. even without the primaries that change in these state, the republican brand still has the problem. >> what republican you run

against. >> slulgs. it's easier to run against a tea partier because they tend to let their campaigns on good and unforced errors. you have ted cruz. it's not always the case. there has to be something about republicans regardless of whether the tea party establishment is running. >> in many ways. >> how close are they? nobody expects him to lose, but if he wins by five versus 20, that matter. kentucky, some days i think it's fine. some days i think -- i don't know. >> when you have the government shut down and frustration growing and reestablishment. this is what 2010 felt like. when it started, there was a lot

of rationalizing about why those certain candidates lot of. by the time they were having the conversations about delaware, he's fine. >> it's not going to happen. >> that are will never happen. you can see it had been building and building. i think it's going to look more like hit or mess. there will be campaigns and they are better run than others. those will be successful. i don't think you will be able to write off the tea party after this 2014 primary season, but i think you have an establishment that is more prepared for it. >> they sweep this and again, cheney to me is not like this. we need a special edition. the other six, if the establishment sweeps all six. mississippi and south carolina are the two toughest. that's going to have an impact and chris christie will be in

better shape. >> you have to keep in mind a couple of things. say they sweep all 6 and how do they make sure the activists turn out to vote that november? how do they win? >> they can sweep them and do it by insulting or teaching them. >> i will show you love while i'm sweeping out the door. if i am sweeping out the door and i'm not making a connection to say we are still part of a fighting team here to win in november, he may win and particularly the race like kentucky against a strong democrat opponent. that could flip on the fact that 3% or 4% turn out on the gop side makes a difference. >> where would david be planning himself for the six. where would he want to knock down the doors and figure out what is this? which is the most intriguing? >> i think he would be there

because it's a leadership issue. we have seen this play out in kentucky before. i think mississippi he would be interested in. cochran is a long running senator and something so well established. he may have news left in him. i suspect he will go to south carolina because lindsay graham is always interested. >> it will be the guys running against roberts is an obama president. it's an interesting group of folks. let's switch in the six, the path to six, we were compareing it to democrats who need six seats and they thought it was possible and they wanted incumbents and wanted it in tough places. this path to republicans, they can do it all in red states. >> true and they probably will pick up.

absolutely. >> biggest upset of the year if they didn't. >> it was a wave election in reaction to iraq and katrina and a range of things. it swept people along and many lot of because they were in red districts. right now 2014 feels like an anti-establishment that both democrats and republicans have. i don't know that that wave -- i don't think we are going to have a wave in 2006. that's what created the upsets. >> how many of you think the democrats will lose control? >> right now i'm at no. >> which state has the best chance of survival. red state democrat. >> i will go with mary landrieu. >> they going win and which has the best shot? >> i think pryor and i think

it's 50-50. >> where are you in the senate? >> i think it's right on the margin and i guess i would say maybe landrieu. >> that's interesting. i'm on hagan. because there -- you know how democrats can find the 50%. the question i have is 50% of the democrats vote. i don't know. >> there is an x factor and there is a lot. i think all four of them have a good chance of winning and the numbers are strong. i think they did well around the issues that run and we had hagan and i think we will keep it and all four will get reelected. >> the key question is in october. they are talking about that or are we talking about kentucky and georgia. that will tell us a lot. if minnesota and colorado are in

play, they are in big, big trouble. kentucky and georgia are getting more attention from us. don't forget the first big test, the florida special election happens at the beginning of 2014. we will get their predictions for the coming year. will 2014 bring new names to 2016 speculation. the race for the white house is a long ways away, but not that long away. we can't wrap up the year without talking about it. we'll be right back with a special edition of the daily run down. [ imitates robot ] everyone deserves ooey, gooey, pillsbury cinnamon rolls. make the weekend pop. ♪ when our only job was having fun. well, it's feeling pretty simple again thanks to weight watchers new simple start. i started losing weight right away. and i'm having a lot of fun.

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it's not the "juggle a bunch of rotating categories" card. it's not the "sign up for rewards each quarter" card. it's the no-games, no-messing-'round, no-earning-limit-having, do-i-look-like-i'm-joking, turbo-boosting, heavyweight-champion- of-the-world cash back card. this is the quicksilver cash back card from capital one. unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere, every single day. now tell me, what's in your wallet? . >> had may be kicking into high gear, but the year began the question was is hillary clip on interested in running. she did plan to slow down after two decades in public life.

when her answer was i just want to sleep and exercise and travel for fun and relax. any interest in running is completely erased. through the year, she put herself out there logging dozens of stops on the i'm not running for president, but i will accept your award anyway tour. she cemented herself as a dominant front-runner. the early moves forced elizabeth warren to say she has no interest and put joe biden who began the year looking like he couldn't wait to take trips into the if she doesn't run i'm running, but until then i will stay in the background. if clinton runs, she will get a serious primary scare. no one has walked in since dwight eisenhower. the question is who does it come from? what part of the democratic party does it come from. 2013 has been a free-for-all. it's a lot like the 2012 primary

scene. the candidates competed to make sure they know they are not running and not ruling out a 2016 bid. no one started with more upside than marco rubio. and no one ended in worse shape. there was so much talk about him as a rising star, he was picked for the republican response in january, but rubio ended up backing away from the own immigration bill after obscured by conservatives. his immigration problem left him placating on others and shows he still is one of the least known if the field. the year ended with wisconsin republicans looking like more serious conservative alternatives to the establishment. even in the senate, he was eclipsed by conservatives like ted and rand paul. they take it more seriously in some cases and the potential wannabes who ran before him. santorum and perry. when it comes to the

establishment wing, you have guys like bobby jindal who started delivering the tough love, but he had problems at home in his job approval that is under water. he hit 42% and in november, he handed over the post to new jersey's chris christie. he balled out house republicans for stalling and he was snubbed by election night in november. he proved he was a favorite by cruising to victory with a 22-point win and he was challenging republicans to see how it's done. he is aggressive and may force others into an early decision. people like former foreign governor. walter and steel. it might be a good firm. so michael, let's start with the republican. the question on the republican

side, we saw frankly a lot of ups and downs. it was not an easy thing. the fight back in 2012. do they sort themselves out and what has to happen for 2014 to sort of create a new front-runner? >> they did begin to sort themselves out and it becomes more complicated and confusing. you will have the likes of the governor to get into the mix. >> if they win reelection, they are going to easily say that. >> you look at this field, i think the governors are going to be the ones to shape the dynamic of the 2016 race and do it in 2014. christie is in a plump position, but i think you will have those competing voices and not just the guy who has the order, but

is going to be the other members of that association who will step out and i look to the two governors in particular. bobby jindal's numbers are weak, but he has a lot of pull. i think he will shape the dynamic and it creates a better platform. you don't have the stage. it's going to be more context around jeb bush's interest. when that sorts itself out, that will sort out the primary. >> i think that's right. i think a lot of people started thinking jeb bush would probably not run. he has given -- >> he made annest to make sure we continue. we are not throwing him in there. he made sure that he should

be -- >> when you talk to democrats about the perspective republican candidates, they talk about jeb bush as a formidable opponent. >> i talked to democrats who fear him more than christie. >> he has a lot of strengths and who can actually talk to hispanic leaders. that's a big, big problem for the party. considerably among republicans and the democrats. someone in like jeb bush is quite conservative. >> that's the main push. if he gets back into it, then it's therapy.

in the political year as far as establishing the credentials. what do you think? >> i will say scott walker. it's tougher than we assume. i don't think walker with get it. >> in the economy in wisconsin is not doing well. and they have not played out well in the state. that will happen with the impact. he was always seen on the fringe. now he is being taken seriously by the establishment. by republican who is shay he's

going to help us reach out to those disaffected. they have drones and privacy. >> they clearly established herself as i want to be the front-runner. i'm embracing being the front-runner. i'm going to do that. by the end of the year, we will have a clear idea of what kind of challenge she is going to get. we assume it comes from the left. the question is who, and what does it look like. >> jerry brown. >> i love that. >> jerry has a record to run. the first three times his record was not as good as it is now. >> the progressive model for governments. >> california was the most dysfunctional and impossible to govern and it took the guy who

couldn't do it. >> it only has been 20 years since he last ran. still a way to contribute money. if not brown and greenburg, is it a howard dean or rus fine gold? if there is no elizabeth warren, in the plast form they use that. >> i would be shocked if anybody can do that in a real way. if you are not coming in, the institutional resources. they excited the imagination and there is a movement around him.

somebody who get the resources you need to contest it. >> you see them fired up and ready. he can play the guitar. >> do irish bands, go from irish pub. one of the things we'll see hillary clinton more on the campaign trail in 20 shshg she's going to campaign for democrats, we'll get an idea, does she have the campaign chops again. david axelrod said something, i think, very smart, hillary clinton '07 terrible candidate. hillary clinton '08, about to be lost coming from behind, turned out to be a great campaigner. which do we see? >> i think the '08 2.0, i think she's going to be much bet, surround herself -- and this is the criticism -- people around her take away, detract from her ability to be that candidate. so if she stockpile the smart and the best, and she goes out

there and is herself, i think she's going to be formidable. the backdrop, if she decides not to get in, this falls to joe biden. >> right. >> here's a question, who's going to invite hillary clinton to campaign for them in 2014? >> you think some won't want to do it? i don't know. that's what i think now. >> very popular. >> is kay hagan? >> potentially. >> she's popular in red states. >> don't underestimate the secretary of state. >> there are a lot of, particularly, republican women who like hillary clinton. >> i was going to to say, i think hillary clinton is more popular in '014 than '06. >> secretary of state -- being secretary of state changed her, i think, among -- >> she can go anywhere. >> her biggest problem of secretary of state resume is john ker w. i'll believe that. if hillary didn't run, biden didn't run, you know? everything that's old is new.

this is terrific. michael, amy, thank you very much. trivia of 12,000 individuals who served in congress, 662 have served in both chambers. we know you got that answer. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] this is george.

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>> my minele takeaway 2013. writing a book about politics, and the second decade of the 21st century, we'd borrow a phrase entitled chapter for 2013 as simply "embrace the suck" a phrase recently used by house democratic leader nancy pelosi during the budget deal. a perfectly sums up this year in politicians the successes were small, and they were overshadowed by the negative, sometimes petty. the budget deal went through. at least we didn't shut down the government. talk about low bar of expectations. we've talked about the

presidency and gop being at tipping points multiple times. but the issue's much larger. distinct issues here leading to one big problem for both parties. the vulnerability from an outside force to influence politics as we know it. we may see a few third party candidates show up in the midterms, don't be surprised if they do better than you think, this outside force will have an impact on our political system far beyond 2014. i think it's likely to come at some point, some sort of third party entity from silicon valley, not big business, not the oil billionaires or the executives but activists from pro-business and moderate place like california that will become outside force that will start to move and perhaps emanate our policy, making the correction that our political system needs now. both parties are a mess. and the middle of the country seems to be fed up with both. at some point, somebody's going to figure this out, channel this ain anger, figure it out, be the

21st ross perot and force the two parties to be itself. the current force will force the two parties to become better. that's it for the special year-end edition of "the daily rundown". happy holidays. happy new year from all of us at tdr. [ male announcer ] here's a question for you: the energy in one gallon of gas is also enough to keep your smartphone running for how long? 30 days? 300 days? 3,000 days? the answer is...

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we're gonna need a bigger bucket. ♪ [ male announcer ] more people are leaving bmw, mercedes and lexus for audi than ever before. the holidays won't last and neither will the season of audi. visit audioffers.com today. ♪ for inially 75,000 people are without power in maine and michigan. will a cold, dark christmas turn into a cold, dark new year's eve? 2014 and rising stars to watch. nbc politics team zeroing in on future game changers and who you need to keep your eyes on. the man who plays nelson mandela joins me to talk about a life changing role. already up for a golden globe and s.a.g. award for "the long walk to freedom" we'll talk about that movie that opened christmas day. i'm alex witt in for chris jansing. the future of