are we there yet? one thing president obama and republicans can agree on is that 2013 was a mess. and they can't wait to ring in the new year politically. but the midterm mayhem might start earlier with a series of 7 senate primaries that could make our break republican hopes for complete capital control. and with just about 7 50 days before the first votes, are they facing a fight between the establishment. welcome to this special edition of the daily rundown. we'll look at the next two years of american politics. let's get to my first reads of

the end of the year. both president obama and house republicans had their worst years since coming into power. 2013 started with high hopes for the president's second term, but it's ending as its worst year in office and washington's wofrs year in a generation. it's a series of setbacks. his 52% job approval in our january poll was near an all-time high, but his difficulties began with the benghazi questions on capitol hill and the irs issue that came under scrutiny. in the wake of edward snowden and those leaks, the new nsa surveillance disclosures, voters began to doubt the president's credibility. was he who he said he would be? and after syria crossed the president's red line by launching a chemical weapons attack on either own people, leaving the president looking indecisive.

and then the government shutdown which showed the president couldn't deliver on his first promise, to bring a new kind of politics to washington. and then the health care rollout clobbered him on the competency issue. it's now the biggest thing driving public opinion of him and his administration. in the past even when the president appearanced a dip in his rating, his personal likability never took a hit. but this fall, his personal likability has erode. and it's set up a fork in the road moment for him. the three previous two term presidents all similar periods in their second terms. reagan and clinton both recovered. george w. bush did not. the next year will decide which side president obama ends up on. but the stench of tanking party brand approval set the stage for republican party chairman to call for an internal attitude audit for the party that produced an election autopsy and a prescription for rebranding. so how did the party's performance this year measure up to the reports prescriptions?

the report warped republicans to reach out to minorities, push for immigration reform, be inclusive on social issue, help lower income folks and improve its messaging. but the gop was cast as out of touch. several state legislatures announced new restrictions on an bopg. and house republicans split food stamps which benefit the poor from agricultural sub city sgis. and then there was the government shutdown which turned in to an unmitigated political disaster for the gop, producing ma massive pessimism. is can republicans net their six

seats and win control of the senate? does the president recover? 35 seats in the senate side are up, if republicans somehow win in montana, south dakota and washington, those three open seats, then they need to win tree out of these four, arkansas, alas characterization louisiana and north carolina.ch louisiana and north carolina. much easier path than when democrats won six to win control in '06. now the president's declining numbers are a particular problem for those red state democrats. their fates are tied to the president's ability to bounce back and give nationally much closer to 50. hard to see how any of them win re-election if the president's overall job approval is sitting at 45%. that means in those red states, he's probably at or below 40.

above fatigue. its eye much worse than the president. and over the last two cycles, the gop has proven it can snatch get. before republicans can win back the senate, is that the republicans also have to run a gauntlet of frankly right on right primaries. we'll have more on that calendar challenge later in the show. and then will is the question of whether any dam can pull a mcauliffe and do something they haven't done, which is win with the obama voting coalition without the president himself on the ballot. mcauliffe pull that had off in virginia. house and senate races will test the viability of the two parties' driving strategies, which message is more powerful, democratic attacks, or the republican exploitation of

public fears about the health care law. there will be a special election to replace bill young in from a's 13th district. it is one of those perfect 50/50 seats. the democrats have even a long shot of making the house competitive and getting close to the 17 seats they would immediate to retake the chamber? that florida '13 special, yeel overdo it, but it will provide a clue or two. and then there is the 2014 x factor. the public's disgust at washington and everyone in office. this is unchartered territory. we have not had a period so destructive for both parties in a generation. the public wants to punish everybody and they're not sure who to reward. the last time it felt like this was in 1992. we had a presidential race that year, but it was a republican president who seemed out of touch and a congressional democratic party who had broken their brand of 40 years in power and just liked like they were

simply corrupt with power. it gave rise to a wave outsider candidates, including the most famous at the top of the ticket there, ross perot. and voters didn't reward any party with a majority. clinton won 43%. republicans picked up some house seats and some senate seats. both tarties have a huge problem. more on what that force could look like. a jam-packed show. a gag he will will be joining me. first a look ahead at the politics plan. [ female announcer ] tide pods three-in-one detergent.

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here is a tough question for you. what was your political highlight of 2013? naming a low light is almost too easy. president obama has had plenty this year. both democrats and republican leadership in congress got. he willed on a variety variety of issues. even is ending the year with lower approval ratings than they started with 12 months ago. edward snowden's decision to leak what might be a million secret documents is still causing problems for the white house. the highlight of his year could be getting am naes ciamnesty fr country like brazil. the same-sex marriage is now legal in 17 states. congress did not he said up passing a bipartisan bill to beach up background checks for gun safety. the bill to limit clip size didn't get enough support either. and this could either be a

highlight or a low light depending on your political orientation. ted cruz grabbed national he had lines with his talk-a-thon a tacking the affordable care act. didn't do anything to block the health care law from taking effect.act. didn't do anything to block the health care law from taking effect. could be the highlight or low light depending on your point of view. so we'll get to the low lights in a minute here. if he'd just had the government shutdown, it would be a tough issue to deal where. if he is just had health care. but all are a giant weight on his shoulders. >> absolutely.

it's the reason it's dlired highways had the worst year of n. washington of anybody. but when you go through that list when you look at the trajectory that happened to him since a year ago, since re-election, he came out of that re-election feel being emboldened. and we saw it after newtown and in his inaugural address. he had a progressive agenda that he was determined to push hard. and you look at where he is today and it's night and day. >> the republicans on one hand should be sitting there saying if they just look at the president and they say, okay, the republicans should be in a good position now and perhaps they may be in 2014, we don't know, but as the president went down, so did the republican brand. this was not a see saw. >> no, they found a way to grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

it became an obsession to the point they were blinded on the other arguments they could make on the economy and jobs. so they effectively brought themselves to the same point with the president. and so when you're being look at the two -- the average joe looking at this going i'm going to side with the president in most case, their numbers dropped precipitously lower and now they're trying to rebound. so they have learned one thing at the end of the year, to keep their mouths shut and let the administration do what they're going to do. but up to this point, they were really pulling at those straws and grab as much of that victory and giving it back to the democrats as they could. >> there is a biis a bigger issg on. you have an average public that looks at the republicans an thinks these guys don't want to govern but look at the democrats and say they don't know how to govern. it's like they're throwing up their hands. this focus group that i spent a lot of time with, they want to punish washington, but they know

how to do it. >> they thought they had been sending a message. 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012. every time and the message has been the same. which is stop focusing on yourselves, start focusing on us. the middle class is drug lynn apwe need somebody to talk to us, not at us. you've been pushing for an i'd logically drivened a jens today. we're not as interested in guns and even immigration as you are. we're certainly not interested in shutting the government down. we're not even interested in talking about the deficit. >> republicans had it right there. they just let it go. >> it's interesting when you look at -- we can look at president obama in perspective and say, okay, some people said his fifth year, just like bush's fifth year. but if you take you a step back, this is the fourth would termed

president in a row that has had a bad fifth or sixth year. so can he recover? how does he do it? >> i think he can. many people don't feel better, but if that dynamic were to change, in the next year, he'll start having people feel more confidence -- >> every time this year there is always this feeling that it will take off. >> there is a disconnect between the make crow indicators and how people feel. it's how people feel. if that were to start to change. if some of the state exchanges we start seeing success story, but those really are in some ways really beyond his roll. the other thing that is beyond his control is what happens in 2014. if democrats lose the senate for example, his ability to get things done massively changes. not that he's had a great

ability to get things done. so i think he can, but i think the problem for him is a lot of this is out of his control. >> what is in his control? >> it's the power of the presidency. they have made a transition from the idea of working through congress to the idea of they're -- >> they're setting up the white house to go arrange congress. sdl hiring john podesta who has spent a lot of time about thinking about the use of executive action. they have ideas in mind. the power of the presidency is still limited particularly in those ways. executive actions take a long time.

>> in 2014, will the approval ratings be closer to 00 or closer to 40? >> closer to 40. >> yeah, closer to 40. >> i suspect between 40 and 50. >> i think he's about right in the middle. 44, 46. >> interesting. i am in that i think he can get up to 47, 48. before we go, we have to talk about the high lights of 2013. two of you said pope francis. dan and michael. >> i took -- actually it was the abdication of benedict i thought was one of the great triggering events for the church. because it has you now opened up what many are perceiving as a renaissan

renaissance. all the doctrine and dogma is taking a new shape in the form of a pope who is saying let's care for the poor. and i think that that is going to have a long term political ramification as we see in public policy, people now relating it to what francis is doing. >> dan, why did you pick francis? >> many similar reasons. if you put it in the context of washington politics, it was an unexpected election. he wasn't on anybody's short list in the end. but nonetheless, he has brought a change that is significant and he showed the power of an individual. >> and you picked bill de blasio's election. it was in many ways stunning, but i guess it will be significant if it does signal what some democrats think it signals, which is a shift to a pore pmore populous -- >> and some argue because it's new york city you can't generalize beyond new york city. but i think you see hints of it in other places.

when you the reason why i picked that as a highlight was in a period of such cynicism and with no message on the economy from either party, he offered a very clear problem and set of answers around it. governing is difficult, but that's leadership. particularly at a time when people said, no, everybody likes bloomberg. >> amy, you struggled. we'll see a year from now how right you you are. we'll have much more ahead. we'll talk a lot of 2014 and spend a lot of time talking 2016. it's what you want to talk about, right? we'll even throw in a little 2015 for good measure. because you care about kentucky

governor. i'm kidding. the one phrase that sums up politics, though. [ male announcer ] no matter what city you're playing tomorrow. [ coughs ] ♪ [ male announcer ] you can't let a cold keep you up tonight. vicks nyquil -- powerful nighttime 6-symptom cold & flu relief. ♪

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new alka seltzer plus-d relieves more symptoms than any other behind the counter liquid gel. oh what a relief it is. we have more ahead. mid-term madness. why the calendar could be key for the conservatives challenging senators in the primaries. first in 1789, 12,105 individuals have served in congress. how many of those members have served in both chambers? the answer and more is coming up. the answers are hard to google in a few minutes. we'll be right back. hey, we got our cards, honey!

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a number of veteran senators have to survive challenges beginning in the spring and beginning in march. we want to put these races in chronological order since what happened was important. if the establishment wins big, conservatives will stand less of a chance later on, two heavy hitters are up in texas. they face congressman steve stockman, it's a march 4th primary. mitch connell takes on kentucky on may 20th. chris donald in mississippi and against a slew of candidates on the 10th, including lee bright on and that can end up in a run off. that's another story. when we get into the midsummer, we should have a good idea of where things stand. the last few races will be more difficult.

if they win one or two early on it could have a domino effect. a factor that can draw more candidates into the mix. that could mean trouble for pat roberts whose primary is august 5th and the tennessee primary is the seventh of august. the last watch is in wyoming. that's on the 19th of august, but this is not like the others. this is with or without the tea party. once we are through the summer, they pick up six seats and the best shot they had in years. 35 seats will be up for grabs. 14 by republicans. it gives republicans a lot of path to majority. seats are being left open and five are democrats. harvey and johnson and rockefeller are retiring. two are republicans. they have a good shot at several seats. they are targeting red states like alaska and arkansas.

louisiana and all vulnerable red state democrats. you are of the party that has to defend the senate. i want to start with the primaries. basically if it wasn't for the senate primaries, would you be more nervous? i didn't bring up georgia. they are the one lone seat. the democrats have a shot at it because of a messy republican primary. without the primary, democrats would be. >> that's right. i also think that the problem they face which is endemic is not just upset. it's in the house and why the brand is so terrible. it's because of the tea party. even without the primaries that change in these state, the republican brand still has the problem. >> what republican you run against.

>> it's easier to run against a tea partier because they tend to let their campaigns on good and unforced errors. you have ted cruz. it's not always the case. there has to be something about republicans regardless of whether the tea party establishment is running. >> in many ways. >> how close are they? nobody expects him to lose, but if he wins by five versus 20, that matter. kentucky, some days i think it's fine. some days i think -- i don't know. >> when you have the government shutdown and frustration growing and reestablishment. this is what 2010 felt like. when it started, there was a lot of rationalizing about why those

certain candidates lot of. by the time they were having the conversations about delaware, he's fine. >> it's not going to happen. >> that are will never happen. you can see it had been building and building. i think it's going to look more like hit or mess. there will be campaigns and they are better run than others. those will be successful. i don't think you will be able to write off the tea party after this 2014 primary season, but i think you have an establishment that is more prepared for it. >> they sweep this and again, cheney to me is not like this. we need a special edition. the other six, if the establishment sweeps all six. mississippi and south carolina are the two toughest. that's going to have an impact and chris christie will be in better shape. >> you have to keep in mind a couple of things. say they sweep all 6 and how do they make sure the activists turn out to vote that november? how do they win?

>> they can sweep them and do it by insulting or teaching them. >> i will show you love while i'm sweeping out the door. if i am sweeping out the door and i'm not making a connection to say we are still part of a fighting team here to win in november, he may win and particularly the race like kentucky against a strong democrat opponent. that could flip on the fact that 3% or 4% turn out on the gop side makes a difference. >> where would david be planning himself for the six. where would he want to knock down the doors and figure out what is this? which is the most intriguing? >> i think he would be there because it's a leadership issue.

we have seen this play out in kentucky before. i think mississippi he would be interested in. cochran is a long running senator and something so well established. he may have news left in him. i suspect he will go to south carolina because lindsay graham is always interested. >> it will be the guys running against roberts is an obama president. it's an interesting group of folks. let's switch in the six, the path to six, we were comparing it to democrats who need six seats and they thought it was possible and they wanted incumbents and wanted it in tough places. this path to republicans, they can do it all in red states. >> true and they probably will pick up.

absolutely. >> biggest upset of the year if they didn't. >> it was a wave election in reaction to iraq and katrina and a range of things. it swept people along and many lot of because they were in red districts. right now 2014 feels like an anti-establishment that both democrats and republicans have. i don't know that that wave -- i don't think we are going to have a wave in 2006. that's what created the upsets. >> how many of you think the democrats will lose control? >> right now i'm at no. >> which state has the best chance of survival. red state democrat. >> i will go with mary landrieu. >> they going win and which has the best shot? >> i think pryor and i think it's 50-50.

>> where are you in the senate? >> i think it's right on the margin and i guess i would say maybe landrieu. >> that's interesting. i'm on hagan. because there -- you know how democrats can find the 50%. the question i have is 50% of the democrats vote. i don't know. >> there is an x factor and there is a lot. i think all four of them have a good chance of winning and the numbers are strong. i think they did well around the issues that run and we had hagan and i think we will keep it and all four will get reelected. >> the key question is in october. they are talking about that or are we talking about kentucky and georgia. that will tell us a lot. if minnesota and colorado are in play, they are in big, big trouble.

kentucky and georgia are getting more attention from us. don't forget the first big test, the florida special election happens at the beginning of 2014. we will get their predictions for the coming year. will 2014 bring new names to 2016 speculation. the race for the white house is a long ways away, but not that long away. we can't wrap up the year without talking about it. we'll be right back with a special edition of the daily run down. [ sniffles ] i better take something. [ male announcer ] dayquil cold and flu doesn't treat all that. it doesn't? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms plus has a fast-acting antihistamine. oh, what a relief it is!

it may still be more than two years until the 2016 iowa caucuses, but this year the invisible primary kicked in to high gear. when the year began, the question was whether hillary clinton was even interested in running. she did plan to slow down after two decades in public life. when her answer was i just want to sleep and exercise and travel for fun and relax. any interest in running is completely erased.

through the year, she put herself out there logging dozens of stops on the i'm not running for president, but i will accept your award anyway tour. she cemented herself as a dominant frontrunner. the early moves forced elizabeth warren to say she has no interest and put joe biden who began the year looking like he couldn't wait to take trips into the if she doesn't run i'm running, but until then i will stay in the background. if clinton runs, she will get a serious primary scare. no one has walked in since dwight eisenhower. the question is who does it come from? what part of the democratic party does it come from. on the republican side, 2013 has been a free for all. it's a lot like the 2012 primary scene. the candidates competed to make

sure they know they are not running and not ruling out a 2016 bid. no one started with more upside than marco rubio. and no one ended in worse shape. there was so much talk about him as a rising star, he was picked for the republican response in january, but rubio ended up backing away from the own immigration bill after obscured by conservatives. his immigration problem left him placating on others and shows he still is one of the least known if the field. the year ended with wisconsin republicans looking like more serious conservative alternatives to the establishment. even in the senate, he was eclipsed by conservatives like ted and rand paul. they take it more seriously in some cases and the potential wannabes who ran before him. santorum and perry.

when it comes to the establishment wing, you have guys like bobby jindal who started delivering the tough love, but he had problems at home in his job approval that is under water. he hit 42% and in november, he handed over the post to new jersey's chris christie. he balled out house republicans for stalling and he was snubbed by election night in november. he proved he was a favorite by cruising to victory with a 22-point win and he was challenging republicans to see how it's done. he is aggressive and may force others into an early decision. people like former florida governor jeb bush. walter and steele. it might be a good firm. so michael, let's start with the republican. the question on the republican side, we saw frankly a lot of

ups and downs. it was not an easy thing. the fight back in 2012. do they sort themselves out and what has to happen for 2014 to sort of create a new frontrunner? >> they did begin to sort themselves out and it becomes more complicated and confusing. you will have the likes of the governor to get into the mix. >> if they win reelection, they are going to easily say that. >> you look at this field, i think the governors are going to be the ones to shape the dynamic of the 2016 race and do it in 2014. christie is in a plump position, but i think you will have those competing voices and not just the guy who has the order, but is going to be the other members of that association who will step out and i look to the two

governors in particular. bobby jindal's numbers are weak, but he has a lot of pull. i think he will shape the dynamic and it creates a better platform. you don't have the stage. it's going to be more context around jeb bush's interest. when that sorts itself out, that will sort out the primary. >> i think that's right. i think a lot of people started thinking jeb bush would probably not run. he has given --

>> we are not throwing him in there. he made sure that he should be -- >> when you talk to democrats about the perspective republican candidates, they talk about jeb bush as a formidable opponent. >> i talked to democrats who fear him more than christie. >> he has a lot of strengths and who can actually talk to hispanic leaders. that's a big, big problem for the party. considerably among republicans and the democrats. someone in like jeb bush is quite conservative. >> that's the main push. if he gets back into it, then it's therapy. in the political year as far as establishing the credentials. what do you think? >> i will say scott walker.

it's tougher than we assume. i don't think walker with get it. >> in the economy in wisconsin is not doing well. and they have not played out well in the state. that will happen with the impact. he was always seen on the fringe. now he is being taken seriously by the establishment. by republican who is shay he's going to help us reach out to those disaffected. they have drones and privacy.

maybe he can come get them back. >> on the democratic side, i think as we established, hillary clinton clearly has established herself as i want to be the frontrunner, i'm embracing being the frontrunner. so i'm going to do that. by the end of the year, we'll have a clear idea what have kind of challenge she'll get. we assume it comes from the left. the question is who, and what does it look like. >> jerry brown. >> i love that. >> jerry has a record to run. the first three times his record was not as good as it is now. >> the progressive model for governments. >> california was the most dysfunctional and impossible to govern and it took the guy who

couldn't do it. >> it only has been how many years since he last ran. still a way to contribute money. if not brown and greenburg, is it a howard dean or russ feingold? if there is no elizabeth warren, will they use the delaz blasio platform against hillary clinton. >> i would be shocked if anybody can do that in a real way. if you are not coming in, the institutional resources. they excited the imagination and there is a movement around him. somebody who get the resources you need to contest it. >> you see them being the guy who is fired.

i don't see martin o'malley will get can play the guitar. >> and do irish bands, the pub from -- you know she's going to campaign for democrats so we'll get an idea does she have the campaign chops again. david axelrod said hillary clinton in '07 terrible candidate, in '08 coming from behind turned out to be a great campaigner. which campaigner in 2014? >> i think we see the '08 2.0, she'll be much better at it, surround herself and this is always the criticism, the people around her sort of take away, detract from her ability to be that candidate so if she stockpiles the smart and the best and goes out there and

bees, is herself, i think she'll formidable. the backdrop if she decides not to get in this falls to joe biden. >> who is going to invite hillary clinton to campaign for them in 014 everyone wanted barack obama in 2006. >> you don't think someone will do it? >> is kate hagan going to? >> don't underestimate the states. >> there are a lot of particularly republican women who like hillary clinton. >> i was just going to say i think hillary clinton is pour popular in '14 an thisthan in '. they wanted obama, not clinton. >> her biggest problem is a guy named john kerry, with secretary of state. somehow if hillary and biden didn't run, you know, everything that's old is new again.

this is terrific, michael sto , steele, amy wallace, dan, thank you. just 662 have served in both chambers, we know you got that answer. we'll be right back with my 2014 takeaway. this is george. the day building a play set begins with a surprise twinge of back pain... and a choice. take up to 4 advil in a day or 2 aleve for all day relief. [ male announcer ] that's handy. ♪ is sweatier and messier than my family on the field. so like the nfl i use tide... ...because i'm the equipment manager in this house. that's my tide. what's yours?

time for my final takeaway of 2013. if we were writing a book about politics, here we would borrow a phrase entitled "the chapter for 2013 is simply embrace the suck" used by nancy pelosi during this month's budget deal, special sums up this year in politics, the successes were small, overshadowed by the negative. the budget deal went through, "well at least we didn't shut down the government."

low bar of expectations. there are distinct issues here leading to one big problem for both parties, the vulnerability from an outside force to influence politics as we know it. we may see a few third party candidates show up in the midterms but this outside force will have an impact on our political system beyond 2014, some sort of third party entity from silicon valley, not the big business, oil billionaires but activists from a moderate place like california that will become the outside force that will start to move and perhaps emanate our policy making the correction that our political system needs right now, both parties are a mess and the middle of this country seems to be fed up with both, at some point, somebody is going to figure this out, channel this anger, figure it out, be the 21st century ross perot and at some point force the two parties

to reform itself. we won't have a third party in this country but a third force will force the current parties to become better. watch us every weekday at 9:00 a.m. on msnbc. happy new year's and happy holidays from all of us. trute all your symptoms. new alka seltzer plus-d relieves more symptoms than any other behind the counter liquid gel. oh what a relief it is.

wears off. [ female announcer ] stop searching and start repairing. eucerin professional repair moisturizes while actually repairing very dry skin. the end of trial and error has arrived. try a free sample at eucerinus.com. hello, disrupters. i'm karen finney. western' we're going to look at our favorites disrupters from politics to pop culture. we look at the gop's benghazi session and whether a new report from the "new york times" can break the fever. >> a bombshell report in the "new york times" what they're calling a bombshell story about benghazi. >> it shoots down much of what republicans have said. >> they say there's no evidence al qaeda was involved in the pen g benghazi attack at all. >> it was very clear to the individuals on the ground that this was an al qaeda-led