you can find me tomorrow on msnbc at 3:00 p.m. on "the cycle." rudy iffy on christie. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. let me start tonight with this rudolph giuliani, the number one defender of governor chris christie now says it's 50-50 that the new jersey governor spoke with deputy chief of staff bridget kelly before she gave the shutdown order on the george washington bridge. what a difference 20 days makes. on january 10th, less than three weeks ago, giuliani said he had

absolutely, absolutely, that was his word no doubt that christie was innocent of any involvement in the deliberate mayhem driven by his office against commuters heading into new york over that four-day period. quote, he is one of the most honest, straight guys you could meet, giuliani said then. today giuliani told radio host geraldo rivera something far less certain. asked whether "time for traffic problems" didn't infer there was a conversation beforehand, giuliani said while it didn't necessarily infer that e-mail that christie was involved in the decision to stop traffic, he said it was a 50-50 that he did. he said it was impossible to know whether he did or did not. well, on that point, there are a number of prosecutors and state legislators out there who are out there looking for evidence that such a conversation between christie and his people actually did occur prior to the bridge closure. what is new now is the political evidence, that even a prime defender of the new jersey new jersey governor is now giving away publicly, publicly to doubts about who said what.

joining us right now is howard fineman and david corn. howard, this is an interesting development, because rude city a clear throated person. and when he says to geraldo rivera, the ultimate urban reporter. >> right. >> i'm not a man of the left or right, i think he has always been sort of a great muckraker. that's what he does, he said to him, well, i'm 50-50 on whether he did it or not. i think that's a hell of a change from 20 days. >> i was stunned when i saw that. i thought we were in a batman movie and the mayor of gotham. rudy is sending up a bat signal saying ix-nay on new jersey and let's look around for somebody else. to me, its latest symbol of the absolute confusion in the republican party where as chris christie was one the organizing principle, when his chief defender rudy giuliani seems to be bailing on him, that means all bets are off. >> you cannot find someone more resolute in their support of chris christie than new york's rudy giuliani.

after christie's melodramatic two-hour press conference with reporters back january 9th where he denied any involvement or knowledge of the bridge scandal, giuliani expressed absolute certainty that christie was clean as a whistle. here is january 10th. >> you have no doubt that he had no involvement? >> i'm absolutely positive. i think chris christie is one of the most honest, straight guys you're going to meet. also, i think had he known about it, he would have never acted this way. had he known that he had some involvement in this, he never would have treated it lightly. political stupid things, political pranks that turn bad, all that stuff, every administration. don't tell me this doesn't happen in the obama administration, the clinton administration, the bush administration. >> a sideswipe. but a few days later on january 12th,giuliani doubled down on his defense of christie on abc's "this week." here is rude different. >> the reality is he says he didn't realize. he says he didn't know. i think it's pretty credible.

he wouldn't make this blanket denial unless it's not true. >> now january 30th, to put in jersey terms, you can forget about all that certitude. in 20 days his belief in christie's innocence has gone from absolute certainty to a mayor coin flip that he is guilty. this is giuliani speaking with geraldo rivera on geraldo's radio show. >> what about that e-mail from bridget anne kelly? isn't that, you know, "time for some traffic problems in ft. lee." mayor giuliani, doesn't that infer that there are, you know -- there was this conversation before about stuff like that? >> with the governor? no, it doesn't. it's 50-50. it leaves you with no -- no possible way of knowing, did she discuss it with him or didn't she discuss it with him. >> well, the possible way of knowing before is he trusted

christie that was his positive way of knowing it. now he is saying he is like any juror out there. don't know the guy. and by the way, 50-50, he may have given it a word. why did he do it? let's talk politics. >> why did he do this? i think between the earlier statements and now, one thing that has happened is there has been an appointment of the u.s. attorney. what is rudy giuliani before he was mayor? a u.s. attorney. he knows that once the u.s. attorney starts poking around a governmental organization that is highly politicized as we've learned of "the new york times," christie's office was, and that's also doling out hundreds of millions of dollars in a politicized environment, that with the drip, drip, drip, something is probably likely going to be found, whether it's the bridge or something else. so that's why he is backing off. you're right. he doesn't want to be on that limb. >> you are reading the papers every morning and "the new york times" is killing this story. the hoboken -- i'm sorry, "the bergen record" is killing it. all the papers up there are going to town. they're putting more coverage

into this than they're putting into the times in afghanistan or the middle or anything else. they're going to get something. and they must believe there is something to get. >> david is right about the u.s. attorney history. but also rudy has a big history with media in new york. you think washington is a ferocious city in terms of media? it's nothing, it's nothing compared to new york. and rudy has experience in this. he once stood up for the integrity of bernard kerik. >> how did that go? >> it went south. he went away. and i think what rudy stands for to me politically is what there is of the establishment of the republican party that is based in new york, the big money people who want an adult person as the leader, and they're backing away from chris christie very quickly. >> i'm dying to figure out what the contest is in which all it takes is one person to score a point, and everything, like scratching a pool, an 8 ball. you scratch, your through with the game. his problem is it takes one credible witness beyond the mayor of hoboken, dawn zimmer. somebody else comes forward,

same thing happened to me. why is rudy no longer certain of christie's innocence? if rudy is hearing the same reports we are, here is what he is looking at. the zeal of the press corps who has turned into it war-time coverage. nearly every journalist in the east coast is trying to dig up something, anything they can about christie and his past dealings. and they're doing quite a job of it. the "new york times" is running front page stories daily, delving into operations and pointing out potential holes in his defense. and you've got an increasing number of investigative bodies combing christie's, look at, this going after all the staffers for evidence, as howard said. that includes more than two dozen subpoenas from the federal government and state legislators so far. not to mention members of congress out there like senator jay rockefeller have gotten federal auditors involved in. this then there is the sheer volume of allegations being made in addition to the bridge scandal and the hoboken mayor's arguments and claims. you've got christie's associates showing up in stories about conflicts of interest, about

suspicious contracts and other potential violations both ethical and even illegal. as i said, this is war-time coverage. david? >> you know -- >> and by the way, christie reads the papers too. >> oh, of course. a couple of weeks ago you started comparing this to watergate. remember, watergate began as an investigation into a break-in. but what you found out was the nixon administration and the reelection committee. >> the m.o. >> was involved in not just that, illegal campaign, if enemies list, operations to break into the brookings institution. the break-in was really the tip of the iceberg to put out a cliche. so here you have -- >> which led to us getting the tapes. >> yes. >> and once you read the tapes like i did and sat alone at the annex over here, the archives and listened to nixon order the break-in of brookings, order the break-in of the republican headquarters to make it look like the democrats, you say okay, maybe he didn't order the break-in of the watergate, but he did -- >> chris, besides the newspapers, besides the u.s. attorneys, don't forget that rudy in addition to being a former u.s. attorney is very

tied into the legal community in new york, the white criminal defense bar and so forth. >> what does that tell him? >> what's telling him is the buzz, i'm guessing here that the buzz is probably not very good. the best lawyers in town are getting hired. the michael chertoffs of the world are getting drawn in to the defense team here. rudy is getting a sense under the surface of how big a deal this is. >> don't forget, this is also about a lot of money. you know, the project in hoboken, $1.1 billion of development from the rockefeller group, one of christie's best pals trying to get that project put through. it's like a really bad episode of "treme" but ten times over. >> the next segment here, which was going to be our first segment until rudy did his thing today. what is fascinating about this, finally now through the e-mails, you as they do in movies, you storyboard how dramatic this was. we're going to talk in the next

couple of minutes about how the mayor of hoboken goes to a meeting over environmental damage caused by flooding in hoboken, right on the waterfront there. and what she realizes in the room suddenly all these lobbyists and lawyers are sitting in the room, all pushing for the governor's favorite real estate deal. and he is saying you want this, this is what you have to do. then a couple of days later, the next day she gets a call from somebody near the lieutenant governor saying she wants to meet you. kim wants to meet you. guadagno wants to meet you. and then with that parking lot meeting on monday which means we're seeing a series of muscle like "on the waterfront" like in the movie. >> the key thing is not in those scenes, its scenes we don't yet know about involving david samson. >> yes. >> who is the head of the port authority appointed by the governor who is also a lawyer in new jersey, superbly connected with every business interest, who is representing the rockefeller group in this thing and is very close to chris christie. he has not been subpoenaed yet i don't believe, but they're going to work their way in and up. just as what happened in watergate.

>> the bridge might be the least of it when they're done. >> remember johnny friendly on the waterfront? >> which is in hoboken. >> i'm rooting for terry malloy. anyway, thank you. could have been a contributor. thank you, howard fineman. it's not funny. it's awful. but it's a hell of a yarn. we're getting pictures of the bullying operation which appears to have been the m.o. of his political team, the crew they're called, the lobbyists, the pressure people, and the alleged warning in a shoprite parking lot, you better get aboard the team here. plus, even before today's news from rudy, christie's poll numbers were sinking. the man seen as the gop's best chance to beat hillary rodham clinton keeps falling further and further behind her. and don't look now, but the tea party is losing its grip, its death grip i think. they wanted to destroy the food stamp program and lost. they want to keep the sequester cuts going and lost. they lost an effort to shut down the government. no wonder establishment republicans like john boehner

want little to do with them right now. by the way, who got the biggest applause the other night, not the tea party, boehner. finally, from one troubled new york politician to another, michael grimm gets advice from anthony weiner? thanks for nothing. anyway, this is "hardball," the place for politics. you make a great team. it's been that way since the day you met. but your erectile dysfunction - it could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than 4 hours.

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welcome back. the front page of today's "new

york times" paints a portrait in colorful detail, as i said, of how christie's team pressures and intimidates their opposition. in the case of hoboken mayor dawn zimmer, it meant repeatedly muscling her to get into line. it started last may when zimmer is lured to meetings about flood prevention only to find she'll really be meeting with a bunch of christie lobbyists and allies who are all wanting a piece of a big development deal that zimmer isn't ready to support. it's a deal being pushed by the rockefeller group which is represented by a cadre of christie supporters, including david samson who led christie's transition team and chaired the bridge commission. here is scene one, per the times. she, hoboken mayor dawn zimmer, was due to meet the next day with officials of the new jersey department of environmental protection when she hoped to talk about protecting hoboken from the next catastrophic deluge to come. instead here is what she walks into. the rockefeller group which had long been trying to gain approval from local officials sent two executives, two lobbyists and an engine gear. the big development project is

number one. but zimmer stonewalls them. mayor zimmer through a spokesman said on wednesday that she went to the meeting but refused to discuss the project. but these weren't disconnected lobbyists by any means. "hardball" has learned that lori grifa was involved in the meeting, the chief lobbyist. she served in christie's cabinet for two years. this is the opening volley from christie's organization. matt katz, a reporter for ncy and darryl isherwood, a senior political reporter for nj.com. let me start with matt on this. the question is what we're getting is almost like an ole polaroid film developing in front of us. we're getting a picture of what happens when you're a mayor up against a christie crew when you realize that you're not just up against a different idea of how to spend money, but people with very strong interests that don't

want to be stopped. your thoughts. >> that's right. and the mayor was something of a political neophyte before she came into office. and it's almost as if she didn't understand what was happening. and now she says what is happening was that she was being pressured from all directions for this development. she didn't realize that the chairman of the bridge agency, david samson, was involved and had a relationship with the developer. and that the developer was tied through the lobbyist through christie. these things came to her as it progressed. that's why she said she didn't let us know about this months ago when it happened, and it's only sort of revealed itself in the wake of the bridgegate scandal. >> here is scene two in the melodrama. the day after zimmer refuses to talk about the rockefeller project to the christie people in meeting, zimmer gets a call saying kim guadagno would be visiting hoboken in a few days.

and that meeting in a shoprite parking lot is when zimmer says guadagno, the lieutenant governor, lays down the gauntlet. here is zimmer's recollection of what happened during that visit from the lieutenant governor. >> the fact is that the lieutenant governor came to hoboken. she pulled me aside in the parking lot, and she said i know it's not right. i know these things should not be connected, but they are, and if you tell anyone, i'll deny it. so these -- the bottom line is it's not fair for the governor to hold sandy funds hostage for the city of hoboken because he wants me to give back to one private developer. >> most people were trying to figure out motive in politics, sometimes it's money. it's not always that usually it's feeding a political army from what i've seen. you've got people who used to work for you and they're on the public salary. and they may go into the private sector. they're not going to the private sector. they're going to that train of people that follows public office around and makes money

off people in office, like their former boss. so you've got people like samson, grifa here, the lobbyist, all working for same firm. just happen to have clients who want to get something from the state, want to use some muscle why. is the governor involved? why is the lieutenant governor involved? why are people pushing this tray along. my sense having worked in politics, they got to keep the army fed. and the only way you got friends throughout is to keep them fed. you got former employees, they're former employees so you keep feeding them. you keep getting them clients. keep helping their clients out. it's called the iron triangle. people work in government, leave government, help clients who want help with government. is this what we're watching here, mr. isherwood? >> i think so. number one, the timing of that guadagno meeting, as you point out. she has this meeting on whatever the date, may 8th where she refuses to talk about the project and "the new york times" describes it as there is a bunch of representatives of the developer there. and the next day she gets a call

from guadagno's office saying hey, the lieutenant governor would like to come out. and what is odd about that, during that initial interview, the mayor of hoboken said she thought it was little weird that suddenly kim guadagno wants to come to hoboken for a hop rite event. i find that a little weird or at least remarkable. the second is there was a meeting scheduled and she finds out lori grifa and david samson were going nobody this meeting. the lawyer and the lobbyist are going to be in this meeting with state officials when there is a quote in the story from samson's law firm where they -- they don't deny that that happened. they just say we deny dawn zimmer's account of this whole thing. they don't say that didn't half. >> you can be caught for perjury denying an event. but you can always come up with a different memory or interpretation of what was happening under the law. that brings us to two. here is the third point in the line of the saga. a few months afterward, mayor zimmer says christie's head of

hurricane sandy aid gets involved. she says ferzon use linked sandy money to development. here is anderson cooper just last week. >> that's what i'm asking as governor. please support this. but when i get an answer back from mark ferzan saying, well, you know. >> and mark ferzan is? >> the head of the sandy recovery process for the governor. so when i get an answer back saying you need to tell us the level of development you're willing to do. >> you're staying head of the sandy redevelopment process was also talking to you about development? >> he said that like a month ago. >> well, let me go to matt katz. you're on this story like wolfhounds. what picture do you get when you see the timeline of all three episodes when pressure is applied continually to the mayor of hoboken, get aboard this rockefeller project along the waterfront. the governor's former transition boss, the governor's appointee

to the new york port authority, the top job, the governor's former employee grifa who is now a lobbyist for this country company. all part of what the times is calling the christie crew are all on a case. and then the governor's lieutenant governor jumps in. and of course his sandy czar, his federal money czar jumps. in these aren't former employees. these are current crewmembers. this is a christie operation here. this isn't something made up of his alumni. this is a team effort. your thoughts. >> the last piece of that triangle you talked about is david samson's law firm donating a substantial amount of money to the republican governor's association, which in turn helped christie get in place and made him the chairman. and this story about sandy is really, if these allegations are true, if zimmer's account is accurate, the christie administration says hoboken got as much money per population, per need as any other town, and there is no evidence of any

penalty here. but if there was a threat of penalty over sandy aid, or if there was even an insinuation that that might have happened, it's almost worse than the bridgegate scandal in some respects, certainly politically. because sandy is such a strength of this governor's. this is on the back of which he ran for reelection. >> exactly. >> it was people loved the fact that he swept new jersey under his arms and led us through the storm. and it deflates all of that if he was or if his people were in any way politicizing it. but as of now, we have her allegations, and we now see some documents where people may have been conflating redevelopment and sandy, but we don't actually know that the governor himself was dangling this sandy aid in exchange for getting his buddies redevelopment project. >> well, we're seeing the crew at work anyway. thank you, matt katz, and thank you darryl isherwood for congress the program. you know things are tough for michael grimm, the guy who threatened to throw a reporter

off the balcony. now he is getting advice from the expert on trouble, anthony weiner. wouldn't you like his advice? maybe you would. this is "hardball," the place for politics. the recent increase in cafeteria prices is not cool. when you vote for flo, we'll have discounts. ice-cream discounts. multi-cookie discounts. pizza loyalty discounts! [ kids chanting "flo!" ] i also have some great ideas on car insurance.

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call this number now for your free information kit and a free $50 savings card. call now. we put together kind of a retrospective. this is a state of the union, a look back. a walk down memory lane. state of the union, a look back. >> okay. >> it is you, our citizens who make the state of our union strong. >> the state of the union is not good. >> the state of our union is

funky. ♪ >> i didn't write that. anyway, it looks like david letterman is feeling nostalgia for the '70s. time for the sideshow. late night comedians have finally had a chance to react to president obama's state of the union speech. here were some of their observations. >> okay, now, if obama is our first african american president, why is john boehner the darkest guy up there? i mean it's -- how does this happen? >> i just noticed that biden and boehner kind of look like the comedy and tragedy masks. can we see those? >> president obama renewed his call for a path to citizenship for illegal aliens. yes. that was popular. even more popular, though, was his roadblock to citizenship for justin bieber. he announced that. >> well, conan o'brien may actually be on to something there. yesterday a petition to deport

teen pop star justin bieber to canada gained the requisite number of signatures to warrant a response from the white house. back in 2011, the administration promised that it would respond to any petition that is able to muster at least 100,000 signatures, no matter how ridiculous or trivial the cause may be. in this case, the deport justin bieber movement asked that the young singer be, quote, removed from our society. while the effort began shortly after his arrest in florida. past petitions that have earned a response from the executive branch include 2001 create the "star wars" inspired death star by 2016, and another to shut down white house petitions since they never get a sincere response. few read them and they're ultimately worthless. finally, we all saw how michael grimm lost his self-control and physically threatened a reporter on camera late tuesday night. well, he apologized yesterday. he also appeared to play down his behavior, chalking it up to being a passionate person.

>> unfortunately, when you are that type of person, that has a lot of passion, your emotions can get the better of you. >> but if grimm's belligerence was an impulsive reaction of the heart, maybe he should heed the guidance of another willing influence, anthony weiner. that's right. former congressman and failed mayoral candidate, anthony weiner had some free advice for the hot headed representative today. weiner had this to say. first, if you don't want to talk about a scandal in which you're embroiled, whatever that scandal may be, maybe it's best that you don't do interviews for a while. better yet, if you don't want to talk about your fundraising scandal, maybe, just maybe, don't have one to begin with. well, luckily for grimm, weiner did not tweet his advice. he wrote it in a new york daily news op-ed. up next, hillary clinton wins round one against chris christie, and the governor's knockdown has the republican party in real disarray for 2016. look at her laughing. he ain't laughing.

you're watching "hardball," the place for politics.

welcome back to "hardball." trenton, we have a problem. for a long time, chris christie has been seen as the republican most able to take on the juggernaut that is hillary clinton. he had the cross-party appeal it was said and freshness, a freshness factor to be a real contender. but the bridge scandal broke. there is even polls showing him, actually leading the former secretary of state back then nationally. all that has changed now. the latest "washington post"/abc poll just out today shows how badly the new jersey governor has been damaged. in a head to head matchup today, clinton beats christie by 12 points, 53-41. she beats him among independents. she has a 25-point lead among woman. no surprise there. her favorability is nearly double his. in other words, the guy who has been seen as the best chance of taking on hillary clinton is falling further and further behind her. if this is where the battle stands right now, hillary wins big time. i say she wins the first round. sam stein is political editor of "the huffington post" and msnbc contributor. and joan walsh is editor at

large for the salon and msnbc political analyst as well. you give me this solid view down the middle. so here it is. christie was out there. he wasn't way ahead, but he was the only one that looked like they might really tussle her in the middle, grab some suburban vote, maybe some women votes around the new york, chicago, philadelphia. suburbs. now he is in trouble. >> oh, yeah, clearly. these numbers are indicative of a free-fall, basically. and i don't think that we can take these things and say, oh, well, now hillary clinton will coast to the white house. these are snapshots in time. christie himself is indicative of how these things change so rapidly. >> if something happens. >> however, he will say this. the republican party needs to figure out its own identity before it puts forward a candidate. right now what you're seeing, the fact that there is no clear front-runner is indicative of the fact that the republican party doesn't have a clear identity. once they figure that out, once they choose what identity they want to have, someone will emerge, and they will have decent numbers against hillary clinton.

it's just a matter of time. >> well, we do think that the party has moved to the right. >> yet. >> and we do think it would have been an upset perhaps for chris christie to knock off -- >> i think it's unfair. i think it was bad conventional wisdom to think he had the nomination in hand. >> i don't think anybody thought that i think he was the front-runner because he was the hot hand. let's take a look at this poll more deeply. sheer what "the washington post" poll tells u. the democrats are nearly united for hillary clinton while the republicans are deeply divided. look at the numbers for secretary clinton, 61 points ahead of joe biden. that's the difference, her closest rival. if you can call them that, the post points out by the way that she is the biggest front-runner for a democratic presidential nomination in the history of any polling. anyway, on the republican side, no clear breakouts at all. look how flat this. paul ryan, he was the republican candidate for vice president last time. everybody knows who he is, slight lead of 20 points. jeb bush, everybody knows who he is, 18 points. christie dropped to third.

he is still in there, tolled by ted cruz, possibly the furthest right guy, rand paul, marco rubio, natural a row of low teens. low teens, 1 and 8. "the washington post" points out there are factional divisions here as well which are clear here. ted cruz leads with tea party voters. jeb bush's self-identified republicans, regular republicans. paul ryan leads with white evangelical property assistants even though he is catholic, as well as young voters. marco rubio leads republicans with college degrees. rand paul no doubt sweeps it with the libertarians. joan, it does seem to be what sam says. when you take a guy on who would have been the wendell wilkie. people like us even, all the people paying attention to him in the big east. >> right. >> there is nobody like that left. so what you have is a scramble. >> what you have is a really perfect picture of the divisions in the republican party. it's a party that is really fractured, chris. so when you see the numbers line up, that's the way the pollsters would describe these different

constituencies. and there is no one who can pull them together. now, you guys are both right. christie had a tough road to the nomination because it is such a confident party. i thought it was so interesting in the times today. they did that story about his political team was looking at two races, 2013 reelection and 2016. if you looked at what they were doing around 2016, they were looking totally past the primaries. it was all about little crossover democratic areas that they could win, that they could run up his score. they weren't looking to run up his score among republicans, but among democrats. they weren't thinking of iowa and south carolina. they were talking about mini ohios and mini floridas. but he was going have a very, very tough path through that primary. he might have done fit the tea party folks split amongst themselves and he was the inevitable one. but now his claim has been democrats and independents love him, and he is losing them. he has no claim on the nominee. >> joan, minnie ohio and florida are general references. if you're reince priebus as the rnc chair, fair enough have.

you noticed that christie is like the cartoon character that doesn't -- he is off the cliff, but he hasn't looked down yet. he is still out there campaigning. >> his legs are still moving. >> frito bandito. is that good for the republican party, to have him running around, dragging his butt around the country saying i'm going to be your nominee for president in the midst of all this stinkeroo. he is coming out of new jersey, and he is saying, you know what? i'm going to be the republican party candidate. look, i'm out here running the governors. wouldn't they rather he took a time-out, like a high school kid, stay home in trenton until you have cleaned up your name. >> i think the republican governors around the country would like him probably to take a little time off. as you saw when he went down to florida to raise money for rick scott, they could not be seen in public together for obvious reasons. >> how about lindsey graham? wouldn't even see him. >> exactly.

if i look at it from chris christie's perspective, what other option do i have? i have to pretend like nothing is the matter. >> why? explain that. >> for instance say he would have resigned as chairman of the rga, there would be another round of vicious media psych. s about how he is beaten back, how he is hurt. so he has to keep going as if nothing has happened. >> that's not saying he likes it. chris cillizza explained today why this is not a repeat when clinton was a favorite. don't assume because she lost the lead lose it again. they had their own basis of support. well, according to cillizza, quote, while obama could look at early 2008 polling and see a path to victory if he could consolidate all of the anti-hillary votes behind him, that looks like the path of 20ish%. put simply, the opposition to the idea of her as nomination in the water was clear and vocal in the run-up to 2008. it simply does not exist now.

too small to cause her in agitas. wonder where he got that. and for any politician looking to take a flyer on challenging clinton in the 2016 democratic primary. let me get to the bottom of this argument. it seems to me according to cillizza, there is not enough anti-hillary feeling. >> right. >> free-floating negativity. if you add it all up. >> elizabeth warren on the left, and you say so what, you can't package that for a victory against her because there is not enough of it. >> right. she had a formidable field in 2008, apart from obama. our votes, i'm a democrat, democrat votes were split in a lot of directions. she never had the dominant presence in the polling in 2007 and 2008 that she has now. it doesn't mean she is inevitable since all three of us lived through her collapse in 2007. we know, you know, that she could be defeated. but there is also, there is no barack obama. i mean, we knew, those of us who

were at the convention in 2004 knew we were looking at a future president. i can't look at anybody necessarily in the democratic party today and say i know that person is our future president. elizabeth warren is wonderful. i love her. if she ran, it would be very interesting. she is not an obama transformative kind of figure, and she is also saying she doesn't want to run. i'm not saying she is going to face a challenge. she is. but it's just very hard to see how even a charismatic person puts together the numbers. >> i'll add. this remember that in 2006-2007, the major issue of the day really was the iraq war. and on that issue hillary clinton was on the wrong side. and there is not that sort of weight around her this time. >> by the way, do you think she 240 should come out and say it was bad war? it was bad national decision. will she say that? >> it's a really good question. she had trouble answering that. now days the issue is inequality. it's not clear where she is weighed down by that. >> i don't think she is weighed down by that. i wish she would clarify it was bad decision by this country. i think it was the worst, a lot worse than benghazi.

it was horrible. this was 4,000, 5,000 people. thank you. and the other people get killed in wars, not just our people. thank you, sam stein, thank you, joan walsh. >> thank you, chris. don't look now, but the tea party has lost some of its tang. their death grip, that's what i call on the republican party, is weakening. that's coming up. this is good news for progressives coming up. the tea party ain't what it used to be. this is "hardball," the place for politics. [ female announcer ] skin looking tired? wake it up with olay regenerist. formulated with a skin energizing complex, it penetrates 10 layers of the skin's surface. because energized skin is younger looking skin. ♪ is younger looking skin. but with less energy, moodiness, and a low sex drive, i had to do something. i saw my doctor. a blood test showed it was low testosterone, not age. we talked about axiron the only underarm low t treatment that can restore t levels to normal

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another notable retirement in the house of representatives. california democrat henry waxman, a great man, says he won't run for reelection this year. waxman has been a member of the house for 40 years. he won his first election back in '74. he is a member of nancy pelosi's inner circle. he is the seventh house democrat to retire this year. but his los angeles seat is safe for the party, the democrats. one possible successor, sandra fluke. and she is the woman's right advocate. she told an l.a. radio station today she is strongly considering running for henry waxman's seat. and we'll be right back.

welcome back to "hardball." the tea party has been on a losing streak. the first big blow was in october of last year when speaker boehner put up a clean bill to fund the government and avert default. no strings attached. no more tea party shenanigans. guess what? it passed.

this month, an appropriations bill passed that raised higher than normal spending levels. and that week the form bill passed with far fewer cuts in food stamps than tea party had called for. another defeat for the hard right there. are likely more in the pipeline. as this politico headline puts it, gop ready to surrender on debt ceiling. plus, a new draft outline for gop immigration reform includes a path to legal status for illegal immigrants. it appears speaker boehner has wrangled the tea party into submission. how he warned his tea party is about the perils of shutting down the government the last time around, but followed them anyway. >> i told my colleagues in july, i didn't think shutting down the government over obamacare would work because the president said i'm not going to negotiate. and so i told him, august, probably not a good idea. i told him in early september. when you have my job, there's something you have to learn.

>> yeah. >> i looked up, i saw my colleagues going this way. and you learn that a leader without followers is simply a man taking a walk. >> right. >> so i said you want to fight this fight? i'll go fight the fight with you. >> right. >> it was a very predictable disaster. >> yeah. >> so the sooner with we got it over with, the better. >> it doesn't sound like speaker boehner will let the tea party lead him into another disaster unless they do. clarence page, pulitzer prize winning columnist, and e.j. dionne for the "washington post." also a professor also at the brookings institute. e.j. does everything. it seems to me without overstating it lately when i watch a guy like him go on a popular show like leno, general audience show and say the troops behind me were fools, i went along with them know they're fools. i don't mind saying so on jay leno. i think he has the upper hand. by the way, he got a hell of a hand the other night. the barkeep's son. >> the narrative he told was only slightly truncated.

he didn't mention his own speech there where he railed against the outside influences, the club for growth and the heritage action. remember, he said, what are you kidding me? meaning, you know, you all had said, okay, we didn't think we were going to win this showdown anyway. and boehner has been telling them all along. it's when they got to the debt ceiling he said, okay, that's it, we played things your way, we'll play it my way. that's what you're seeing now. he's literally -- he's being candid. he could be even more candid in saying i told you so. right now he's -- >> the bad news for the democrats, i think, i'm guessing e.j. dionne, he's confident if he keeps a steady hand at the helm for the next couple months through november, the democrats and republicans are going to win a lot more seats, at least they're going to hold their lead in the house, probably do well. they're up in the generic vote. why screw it up with crazy behavior between now and

november? >> no, and that's the assumption in the republican party and that's why he's winning. i mean, sometimes when people get hit really hard by a 2 x 4, they learn something and that shutdown really was a 2 x 4. not a whole lot of leadership at the initial stage there by boehner when you listen to that leno interview. nonetheless, they gave him what he wanted and the republicans cratered in the polls. what happened, the hardcore tea party vote is about 60 in the house. there are probably at least about 100 members who are basically worried about tea party primaries. and so when the tea party's in the senate, they sided with them. they're even more worried about the republicans losing their majority and if the republicans hadn't changed course, after the shutdown, and if president obama hadn't had the problems with the health care rollout, the republicans were in great jeopardy of losing the house. and that's boehner's whole card. they don't want to lose the power they have. >> what do you think about the

some demise of ted cruz? we punched him up around here. i don't mind doing it. i think he's a radical. i think he's a negative force in american politics. don't mind saying so. i'm not sure rand paul is. he's a libertarian. i think tom cruz with his tactics. >> you can see by the way ted cruz is denying -- >> how can he say it? talk like that. >> he says it with a great face. >> the moderators and people let him get away with it. >> his fellow republicans know. the fact is he lost and distracted everybody at a time when obamacare -- >> he's out there filibustering for it. >> e.j., you're the professor. put your professor's hat on. some crazy talk that he wasn't leader of the shutdown. ted cruz was the shutdown's face. >> he had the famous tortilla coast meeting. the story about the new member of congress who refers to the other party as the enemy and the older member says, oh, no, there

are opponents, the senate is the enemy. and i think this notion of a guy coming from the other side, a right winger who's trying to gin up this opposition to boehner didn't play well with a lot of members. >> thanks so much, e.j. thanks for coming on. clarence as well. big night here tonight and we'll be right back. e way to keep your underwear clean. here's another. try charmin ultra strong. it cleans so well and you can use up to four times less than the leading bargain brand. thanks mom! make me proud honey! [ female announcer ] charmin ultra strong has a duraclean texture that's soft and more durable to help your kids get clean while still using less. and it's four times stronger than the leading bargain brand. so you can keep the biggest kids in the family clean too. [ laughter ] [ female announcer ] used by more plumbers than any other brand, try charmin. it's clog-free or it's free.

let me finish tonight with this. the republicans may want this christie story to die, certainly

it would allow them to turn the fire back on the president. but there's a huge factor working against them here. the first is that people understand this story. they know what it means to bulk traffic especially when it's in the morning and you're fighting to cover your butt at work. nobody likes the feeling of walk into work late. we get it. we get it some big shot thought it was hunky dory to screw up the traffic lanes, throw out traffic cones to screw up people's lives so they could slap a political rival over the nose. second, we know the feeling of being bullied. we don't like to see the big shot showing his big shot muscle to someone further down the food chain. this scene of the new jersey governor's people shows up in hoboken presents a picture we've seen before. maybe if we're lucky just in the movies. a muscle being applied. it's like the guys who showed up in the old days of the little restaurants and told the owner he'd be wise to let the big boys put their jukebox in a place and not cause trouble about it. we have to hear all this in court, of course, but the scene described in the e-mails shows a scene in hoboken right out of

"on the waterfront" and we're waiting for a hero to stand up to the dockside bullies. you can call it the american in us. anyway, that's "hardball." it's better at 7:00. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. if you thought the new jersey state ethics commission was going to be the one to get to the bottom of what's going on with the christie administration's multiplying scandals, you might want to think again. this week, the ethics commission, the group that would eventually rule on any complaints filed against chris christie or anyone in his administration approved in a closed-door vote christie's recommendation for the executive director of the ethics commission. susana esparza guerrero, a longtime christie loyalist who spent eight years at the law firm with close ties to christie and where christie