is in my backyard. >> jen. >> jen, thanks a lot. it's "way too early," it's "morning joe." chuck todd was art linkletter, can you believe? >> 1956 st. louis cardinals. >> talking about his roast tonight at johnny carson. you want to see this next, chuck todd only on "the daily rundown." ah, french connection. live pictures here of the white house where french president francois hollande is expected to arrive any moment for an official visit. president obama and the first lady will welcome him with a 21-gun salute. we'll bring you all the action from the south lawn and preview of tonight's state dinner. got a jam packed show for you. u.s. ambassador to russia, mike mcfall will be here, and americans on both sides of the political spectrum want a change in u.s./cuba policy.

good morning from washington. it's tuesday, february 11th, 2014. this is the "the daily rundown." i'll focus my first read on the state dinner and the arrival of the french president, which we'll be monitoring very closely. we'll bring you that full event. always a lot of pageantry to it. official arrival ceremony is a tradition that began five decades ago. president kennedy was the first to welcome a visiting head of state this way. bilateral meetings, joint press conference in the east room, lunch at the state department and, of course, it culminates tonight with an extravagant state dinner, usually given for one of three reasons, to say thank you, to say i'm sorry or to declare an interest in becoming closer friends and better allies. president obama has actually given just six of these. the same number the second president bush hosted but far fewer than president clinton's 23, the first president bush who gave 21 in four years and president reagan who hosted an extraordinary 35 state dinners.

president obama's 2009 state dinner in honor of indian prime minister singh was an i want to be closer friends type of dinner. for german chancellor merkel was a thank you after germany led the way for the bailout of the eu. and after british prime minister david cameron put a motion to approve motion, ending the chances of uk being involved in strikes against syrian president assad. now hollande is in political terrible shape, lowest favorable rating of any french president in history. unemployment rate in france is at a 15-year high, up nearly 11% and tep id economic growth on the horizon. then, of course, the turmoil in his personal life, which is already overshadowing this visit. hollande arrives in washington solo. relationship with his long-time partner now former first lady

blew up after a tabloid printed pibts of hollande with julie gaye. the daef a french politician having an affair is not new, president nicolas sarkozy announced he was divorcing his wife before visiting for a state dinner. famously said, quote, there have been women i have loved a lot as discreetly as possible. meelting his secret daughter, she and long-time mistress stood together over his coffin at his funeral. hollande campaign has promised to avoid drama in his office and instead has been dogged by it. >> this is a very sensitive

subject for you. do you think your private life has made france an international joke? are you still having an affair with julia gaye? >> with this visit hollande has the opportunity to change some of the headlines, at least temporarily. lay a wreath at the tomb of the unknown and decorate six world war ii veterans tomorrow. silicon valley to try to drum up business for france, meetings with the heads of google and twitter. joint washington post-op ed hollande note aid decade ago few would have imagined our two countries working so closely together in so many ways. a view the two leaders reiterated after visiting monticello. >> we'll have an opportunity to talk about not only our current bonds and alliance, but also

ways that we can strengthen our cooperation in the future. >> we were allies in the time of jefferson and lafayette. we are still allies today. we were friends in the terms of jefferson and lafayette and will remain friends forever. >> far cry from a decade ago when ties between the two countries ruptured over iraq. official breakfast menu on air force one included the freedom toast and freedom fries replaced french fries. thoe though the u.s. and france cooperated, president jacques cirac and bush never really got along. loudly declare aid french president could be a friend of america and still win elections in france. >> laura and i welcome you to the white house or shall i say -- [ speaking french ]

>> now obama and hollande last met in washington in obamay 201. theu has not had an ambassador in paris. france has been a cooperative partner. the trans-atlantic trade and investment partnership as well as climate change. so joining me now, i have christian mallard, analyst for french television and washington post diplomatic correspondent. i want to start with you. the state dinner as diplomatic -- as a diplomatic tool. in this case for hollande, coming at a time when he could use some help from this president. >> sure. i mean, there have only been, what, five of these, right? he's clearly getting treatment

not afforded to many foreign leaders. so, that will look good at home. yes, america is not the most popular country to be friends with in france. >> especially due to nsa leaks among other issues. >> right. i mean, the french people are going to expect hollande to take up the nsa questions. france wants something that obama is not likely to give hollande here, which is a we won't spy on you promise. and he's not going to get that. >> because he's not going to get that in return. it's not like france is going to agree to the let's not spy on each other that the u.s. and the uk have. >> exactly. but that will largely go unmentioned, as will the fact that he's stag tonight. >> tell me this, christian. we painted a pretty grim picture of hollande politically at home. were we accurate? >> well, the thing, it's

paradoxical and very contradictory. you unrolled the red carpet for the president who has the worst rate in france, 19% polls favorable, unheard of in presidential history. at a time where, let's put it this way, economically, the french, public opinion here, two things. that hollande should draw lessons and see the way of the economy of the united states is really getting better with gross ra -- growth rate of 2.8 and unemployment coming down. in france everything goes up. unemployment rate is far more than 10%, growth rate is about 0.9, which means that rate of unemployment will still go up. we have never of that heard of. so french people thinks maybe he should follow obama, who is having a better economy, shaping up in a better way right now.

>> christian, the issue of hollande's personal life be as much of a factor for him if the economy were better in france right now? >> yes, definitely. the thing which is positive, definitely, between united states and france is we can rely upon the military help, logistical help of the united states as we could see and great britain, too, in the region when we have to fight in north africa, in mali, central africa today. we are all working together. but i think it's great that we are all together fighting against terrorism but at the same time when i read this tribute written by president obama and president hollande for "the washington post" when i heard senior hollande saying it's great we've been in nato together, fighting together and i come back to the past and i

hear mr. hollande criticizing president sarkozy, i think sometimes we can laugh at politics. >> well, that's for sure. anne, the repair of the french-american relationship began with bush and sarkozy. it's not like obama and hollande have continued it. really sarkozy was the key here, was he not, anne? >> he was. when hollande was first elected, he was referred to generically as the new socialist president francois hollande. >> there was concern in america. >> absolutely. >> that he would be inward looking. >> and doing the wrong things on the economy and wrong things on security. that was the fear. it really hasn't come out that way. in fact, hollande is not governing as a classic socialist at all. >> we're seeing right now the president and first lady out here, getting ready to meet -- there's some pageantry that comes with this.

we will hear a few things here in a few minutes, hail to the chief, french national anthem and american national anthem. i want to ask you about the issue of syria. characterize the state dinner as sort of an i'm sorry state dinner for leaving hollande holding the bag, if you will, on the issue of syria. how much did that hurt him at ho home? >> well, syria and iran are the two key problems that the united states and france are facing together with some other western allies. on syria, i think united states and france are really dreaming when they are saying, wait, hoping to oust assad from power. president putin, french and united states are dreaming about a better future for syria. concerning iran, let me add something. i think the french have been a bit more tougher and realistic than the approach of president obama toward iranian president

rouhani. having lived in iran for three years under the ayatollah's regime, to believe that this regime will respect the nuclear -- i don't trust this regime or president rouhani and president obama, president hollande, prime minister cameron in great britain should be far tougher to get heard from this iranian regime. >> hollande just arrive, the president and first lady greeting him. in a few minutes we will dip into some of the opening ceremony. to pick up on the iran point that mr. mallard just made -- >> he was referring to something that was fairly extraordinary and underreported at the time, which is that the french were really mad that hollande in particular, personally angry that in his view, the united states, obama had gone behind his back and cut kind of an

arrangement to get the iran -- >> went around the p5 plus one here. >> yes. >> and, of course, the americans deny this and say no, we never went around anything. it was all in service of getting negotiations going. but there were a series of secret meetings that u.s. officials held and the french didn't know about it until the deal was unveiled and they were not happy about it. >> let's pause here and take a listen in at the ceremony. >> present arms. ♪ [ hail to the chief ]

♪ [ hail to the chief ] [ 21-gun salute ] ♪ [ hail to the chief ]

♪ [ national anthem ] ♪ [ national anthem ] ♪ [ national anthem ]

we will continue to follow the pageant rry at the white hoe after this break where the two presidents will be doing a review of the troops and we expect to hear from both of them very shortly right after this break. ? uh-huh. yea. alright, whenever you get your stuff, run upstairs, get cleaned up for dinner. you leave the house in good shape? yea. yea, of course. ♪ [ sportscaster talking on tv ] last-second field go-- yea, sure ya did. [ male announcer ] introducing at&t digital life. personalized home security and automation. get professionally monitored security for just $29.99 a month. with limited availability in select markets. ♪ and five simple whole grains, new multigrain cheerios dark chocolate crunch

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the white house welcomes ceremony for the french president continues, reviewing the troops, shaking hand with his visitors. president obama will make remarks any moment here. back now with my guests, french television analyst christian

mallard and "washington post" diplomatic correspondent anne gearan still with me. nsa spying, edward snowden. there has been, in all of europe, particularly president obama's ratings or favorability ratings in europe have gone down because of this incident. how badly has he been hurt personally with the french public? >> i don't think it has really hurt president obama's image here. you know, i think even president hollande has been cooling down this whole story about nsa because we do know -- i think it's a very hypocritical way -- even between close friends, everybody spice their neighbor. we've known about that for a long time. so, it's just a joke. and i don't think it's hurting neither president obama nor the united states. so don't make too much fuss about that. >> it's interesting. and i have heard that in france it is less of an issue than,

obviously, it's a huge problem with merkel and germany. >> and obama know that is and you can see his recovery efforts have focused on germany there. but for -- that is part of the predicate for this dinner, is that, hey, look, there's been some stuff that's happened lately that's not so great and we need to calm the waters with a truly, truly important ally. hollande basically gave him that yesterday saying, look, we're bffs no matter what. don't worry. that was the message from monticello, that this is all fine. >> i want to go back to hollande's personal political problems here. he has tried very hard not to deal with this in public as much. is he getting advice that says, you know what? you're going to have to be more open in public about what's going on here to sort of stop the gossip. you look at the coverage of hollande here in the united

states when he went to great britain, all focusing on his personal life. i have to imagine that must frustrate him. >> well, let's put it this way. hollande is only listening to himself. i heard a lot of his personal advisers complaining and saying he doesn't want to listen to advice of anybody. he makes his decisions together on his own. this is the problem with hollande. in this country, people -- a lot of people who voted against sarkozy's. hollande's victory was a kind of referendum against sarkozy and hollande made too many promises when he was elected saying me, as president, i would do that. as president, i would do that. now i hear a lot of french people, even when i came back over here to join your show, chuck, i took a taxi driver -- we were talking about political situation in the area. he said i'm not going to vote for hollande anymore. i made a mistake. i believed him. i feel betrayed today. this is globally, when you get

this 19% rate polls unfavorable to him, you have the feeling of the french population very disappointed and probably going to sanction hollande and the socialist party during the next municipal election five months -- five week as way from now. >> interesting there. and on this sort of diplomatic i'm sorry repair tour that the president is needing to do, in this case with hollande, having a little bit to do with syria, we were supposed to have another state dinner last year, but it got canceled, when brazil decided not to come because of the nsa issues. should we expect more and more attempts by this white house to have more state dinners in the last three years? >> that's been an historical model, that the parties get more frequent toward the end of the term. but obama actually really does have a lot of diplomatic work to do. some repair work and some of what he was really going to try

to do with brazil, which was reach out to the newer economies, to the places not like france where things are changing. >> we're about to hear from the president, make a few opening statements. we'll hear more formally from them at a lunch press conference. but let's listen in.

>> good morning, everybody. bonjour. that's the extent of my french. few places in the world warm the heart like paris in the spring. this morning, we're going to do our best with washington in the winter.

[ french translation ] >> france is america's oldest ally. in the years we've deepened our alliance. today on behalf of the american people and michelle and myself, it is a great honor to welcome my friend, president hollande and his delegation for their first state visit to the united states. in fact, the first state visit by a french president in nearly 20 years. [ french translation ] >> yesterday at monticello, we reflected on the values that we share, the ideals at the heart of our alliance. here, under the red, white and

blue and the blue, white and red, we declare our devotion once more to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. [ speaking french ] [ french translation ] >> for more than two centuries, we've not only proclaimed our ideals, our citizens have bled to preserve them. from a field in yorktown to the beaches of normandy to the mountains of afghanistan. today we are honored to be

joined by two extraordinary men who were there those historic days 70 years ago. i ask them to stand, proud veterans of d-day, who are here in attendance today. [ french translation ] >> so it's no exaggeration that we stand here because of each other. we owe our freedom to each other. of course, we americans also thank our french friends for so much else. this capital city, designed by,

our statue of liberty a gift from france and something that many americans are grateful to france for, new orleans and the french quarter. [ french translation ] >> mr. president, like generations before us, we now have the task not simply to preserve our enduring alliance, but to make it new, for our time. no one nation can meet today's challenges alone or seize its opportunities. more nations must step up and meet the responsibilities of leadership and that is what the united states and france are

doing together. [ french translation ] >> to our french friends, i say let's do even more together, for the security that our citizens deserve, for the prosperity that they seek and for the dignity of people around the world who seek what we declared two centuries ago, those unalienable rights, those sacred rights of men. [ french translation ]

>> president hollande, members of the french delegation, we are honored to have you here as one of our strongest allies and closest friends. welcome to the united states. [ speaking french ] [ french translation ] before we go to break here, christian mallard, what does hollande need to get out of this? what does he hope to get out of this visit to the united states? >> well, i think president hollande would expect the united states to be more present in the middle east, for instance, at a time when everybody knows that president obama is turning more to asia and withdraw a little bit more from the middle east. the big challenges -- i don't

mean that the big challenges are not in asia, but we have big challenges ahead, as you alluded to previously with syria, iran and we need strong america, we need a strong obama really with the west, with the french, the british and other nations in this part of the world. so it's probably what hollande will ask obama, don't withdraw too much and be careful with all what we have to face together. face challenges as president obama, we cannot be alone. we have to be together. iran and syria definitely in the loop. >> very quickly, what does the president hope to get out of this? >> the president hopes to get out of this some comity. >> comity with a t. >> yes, exactly. and france is a permanent member of the security council. united states needs their help. >> anne gearan, christian

mallard, thank you for being my anchor buddies as we cover the welcome ceremony for the french president there. the translation issues were such that we had to cut off president hollande's remarks but you'll be able to see them later. the deepening divide between the u.s. and russia. we'll be right back. safe driving bonus check. rock beats scissors! [ chuckles ] wife beats rock. and with two checks a year, everyone wins. [ female announcer ] switch today and get two safe driving bonus checks a year for driving safely. only from allstate. call 866-906-8500 now. [ dennis ] zach really loves his new camera. problem is...this isn't zach. it's a friend of a friend who was at zach's party and stole his camera. but zach's got it covered... with allstate renters insurance. [ female announcer ] protect your valuables for as low as $4 a month when you add renters insurance to your allstate auto policy. call 866-906-8500 now. what are you doing? we're switching car insurance. why? because these guys are the cheapest.

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well, as we speak, 230 american athletes are in sochi, russia, under the protection of russian security forces that have been less than forthcoming about the threats facing these olympic games. the latest test of u.s. relationship with russia, one that seems to keep taking one step forward and two, perhaps three steps back. case in point, russian president putin's decision to give asylum to edward snowden. it undermined the relationship

and obama cancel aid one-on-one meeting with president putin. straight out of the cold war, straining relations even further, the u.s. is blaming moscow for recording and leaking a private conversation during which victoria nuland used a profanity in discussing the european union on the issue of the ukraine. russian official who tweeted it out denies the role in bugging the call. of course, there are much more serious issues at play as well. putin has steadfastly refused to put pressure on president assad to end that civil war. downplay syria and play up russian's help with iran in those nuclear talks, proof that russia can be a partner on the nuclear stage. >> while we have differences on many issues we've been able to work together on iran's nuclear program. on syria, we clearly have many, many differences on what's going on in syria. the ownness is really on the

regime. we need the russians to help. we're working with them there, too. even though at times we have diverge ent divergent interests we have been able to diplomatically work together on these issue. >> what about the famously chilly relationship between president obama and president putin? president obama says it's all for show and that behind closed doors putin is a different man. >> the truth of the matter is that when we're in meetings, there's a lot of exchanges. there's a surprising amount of humor. and a lot of give and take and he has always treated me with the utmost respect. i think he recognizes the importance of russia of working with the united states on areas of mutual concern. >> of course, the end of the games will bring one more change to the u.s./russian relationship. u.s. ambassador will step down, wrapping up more than two years at this post.

ambassador mcfaul joins me now. russian relations right now, is it a low point, little bit better than a low point? how would you describe it? >> i wouldn't put it in the categories of low or high. i would put it in the categories of where are we achieving our interests in cooperation with russia and what areas are we not achieving our interests? so in that first category, i would mention supply routes to afghanistan, destroying nuclear weapons in both of our arsenals, cooperating to get rid of syria's chemical weapons, cooperating with russia in the p5 plus one negotiations to make sure iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon and increasing trade and investment between our two countries after we helped russia get into the wto. in the other category, if i think about places where we would like to see greater

cooperation, most certainly on syria earlier in our interaction with his russia -- and here i mean three years ago, had we had a better cooperative relationship with russia, we might have avoided the hundred thousand plus people that have died there. and, secondly, i would add to the list where we disagree with respect to democracy and human rights. >> right. >> we don't like the trend lines we see here in russia. and that's become a source of tension. >> i was going to say it's actually a source of tension for you personally with president putin. as ambassador, you have not been shy about tweeting, using social media to talk about these issues and talk about the rolling back of what appear to be freedoms that russia circa 1990s looked like they were headed towards. is it -- did it make it so that your job was just that much more difficult? if you were being more welcomed

by president putin, your efforts were more welcomed, do you think you would be motivated to stay on the job longer? >> no. i love this job. it is the greatest honor i'll ever have to be the representative of the obama administration and the american people here in russia. and if i were a single guy or my family were here with me, there's no doubt i would stay on as long as i could. my family lives in palo alto right now. it's a 5,000 mile commute. and that's the reason i'm going home. but going back to this relationship with president putin. >> and to go back and watch some stanford basketball and football, too, chuck. >> i hear you. was it basically sour from the very beginning between you and him? >> well, i think the timing of

my arrival here is important for people to remember. it coincide d with an election that was proven to be falsified. hundreds of thousands of people protested against those elections, the process and then there was a presidential election that putin eventually won. the president asked me to come do this job in early spring of 2011. that was at a different moment in u.s./russian relations. >> right. >> so a much more positive on a range of issues. had i come right after he asked me to, that correlation, that unintended correlation might not have happened. but there's no doubt that he does not like our views on democracy and human rights. he does not like us to speak out. and when i do, i want to emphasize, i do not do so in the name of michael mcfaul. i do so on behalf of president obama, secretary of state kerry and the administration.

they don't like it. that's clear. >> what is it that we in the united states misread about the relationship between medvev. it was almost as if they hadn't spoken and it was a totally different relationship once putin took off. what did we misread about m medvedev and putin? >> i would say two things. one, we underestimated how autonomous he was and how the prime minister at the time,

prime minister putin deliberately tried not to get involved in those things. even when we tried a couple of times to reach out to prime minister putin, he pushed back and said that's not my job. that's medvedev's job. we did misread, particularly the arab spring, their views. and also the protest that is erupted in september and throughout the year of 2012, i don't know how medvedev would have responded. i would put it even stronger, we never had an issue about democracy and human rights with medvedev in a dramatic way because those kinds of events had not yet happened yet. they happened on putin's watch. >> ambassador mcfaul, i have to leave it there. your final stint. you'll be coming home soon, get to watch a lot of stanford

football. who knew that the football team now would be a little bit better than the basketball program yet the whole athletic program pretty impressive these day. >> hey, we're coming up in basketball, too. >> fair enough. enjoy the games. on cuba, foreign policy focus here for "the daily rundown." first the white house soup of the day, it is not french onion. that's all you need to know, on this tuesday, with state dinner day, it's butternut squash. this is for you. ♪

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today a deep dive into cuba. the political and cultural conundrum located just 90 miles

from the florida shore. for 50 years u.s. policy has remained virtually unchanged. cuba has been an economic and diplomatic pariah but things may be changing. over the weekend florida gubernatorial candidate charlie crist called for an end of the trade embargo and promptly got slammed by a number of republican leaders. but crist isn't alone. a new poll shows the majority of americans support changing u.s./cuba relations. they want to engage more directly with cuba. 30% of them strongly support that. just over a third of americans are opposed. but in order for real change to happen, there's a lot of history to overcome. during the first half of the 20th century the u.s. played the role of the helpful neighbor to cuba lending military and economic support. that all changed with the cuban revolution in 1959 when fidel castro and a band of fwgu guegu

overthrew the government. >> the people of the united states are very nice. >> things went downhill, though, from there. castro declared cuba to be a communist nation. the u.s. launched the ill-fated bay of pigs invasion and the cuban missile crisis put the world on the brink of war. u. u.s./cuban relations have never recovered. in april 1980 with this country facing a struggling economy, castro eased emigration restrictions and more than 125,000 fled under president carter's open arms policy. but castro seemed to slip other folks in that policy. the u.s. tightened its trade embargo and mid it permanent. in the last decade george w. bush pushed hard to end communist rule. change sort of came in 2006 when

fidel castro's failing health led him to hand over power to his brother, raul. after formally taking power, he initiated new reforms and offered to normalize relations with the united states. president obama has lifted some restrictions on travel. the strong anti-cuba lobby in congress and south florida has hampered further action. despite the fact that the president said just three months ago that u.s. policy towards cuba, quote, doesn't make sense. for years it's been assumed that cuba cuban-americans and the florida vote would keep change from happening. but it's no long er the politicl third rail it once was n. fact, support in south florida is growing. the atlanta council found that while 56% of americans nationwide favor closer ties with cuba, the number is even higher in florida and among hispanics, 63% of floridians support changing u.s. policy and 62% say the same thing. two of the pollsters join me now. democratic pollster paul and republ

republican pollster glenn. welcome to both of you. glenn, i'll start with you. this has been a republican issue for years, or the cuban vote has been thought of as a republican vote. but in 2012 the cuban vote was split right down the middle. how much is the changing thoughts of cubans on this issue paving the way for this shift overall? >> it's pretty significant. look, attitudes change over time. nothing is static. and i think that's what you see in this survey among hispanics and among floridians about cuba. and among americans. if you look the overall number there's not a big partisan gap. >> not at all. let mae pme put those up. >> there's very few issues where you have such a small partisan gap as what we found here and, again, the cuban missile crisis was many, many years ago. in fact, i was just born then and i have a lot of gray hairs now. things have changed. >> paul, looking at this and

president obama has been hesitant, but politically you could argue some on spanish radio, some of this was had hit against him, his positions on cuba. and he still won florida. again, still the vote was 51%/49%. it's a small sample in the exit poll. it's evenly split among cubans. >> i think things are -- people are supporting change now. it's funny, we mark the 50th anniversary of the beatles on ed sullivan. all the events you talked about, as glenn mentioned, they were roughly 50 years ago as well, and yet nothing has changed in terms of this policy. i think most americans now look at this from a common sense standpoint and say why not? we talk to everybody. why don't we have some kind of relationship? and then there are underlying reasons that support it in terms of its place in the region and business, et cetera. i don't think there's a lot for the president and frankly many republicans. a lot more on this. it will be on my website with my

pollsters including what they say about when president obama may announce a change in policy. of course the olympics are up next right hear on msnbc russia against japan in women's hockey. i'm meteorologist bill karins and a very high impact winter weather impact over the next two days and it does look like the worst will be occurring in the south starting late this evening and lasting right through the day on wednesday. and then the storm moves up the east coast with a lot of snow and sleet all the way through the mid-atlantic to new england and a lot of heavy snow along with it. on expedia you can book any flight, car and hotel together and save up to 20% when you build your custom trip. expedia, find yours. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you outlive your money?

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