birthday to rochelle. ♪ happy birthday to you happy birthday to you ♪ ♪ happy birthday rochelle >> all right. and every day is reilike your birthday, because right now, it's time for the greatest chuck todd and "the daily rundown." chuck, take it away. >> and remember, you have to charge barnicle for singing "happy birthday" on the airwaves. time for sunshine. we're kicking off a year-long look at the state of politics in all 50 states and this week this week we'll focus on is florida. from this year's marquee match-ups to demographic dynamics to presidential puzzle pieces, past and future. meanwhile, a new chapter begins in ukraine as its ousted leader is on the run and its former leader is out of jail. national security advisor susan rice returns to the sunday show circuit, the reaction to get an earful from senator john mccain. also this morning, less than a week away from the biggest night in hollywood.

but this isn't just an awards show. it's an election. we're breaking down the rough and tumble tactics that stars and studios use to win campaign gold. good morning from washington. it's monday, february 24th, 2014. this is "the daily rundown." big day here at msnbc, a great new schedule. we'll get things started with my first reads. this year, getting outside the beltway, taking a "deep dive" every week into the state of politics in all 50 states, exploring the power of the political parties, changing demographics, legislative battles, dominating political issues in marquee races that are reshaping the political landscape in 2014, and we'll set the stage for 2016. we want to tackle big questions like, in california, can the republican party reverse a worrying decline in party registration? democrats now hold every statewide office and have majorities in both houses of that legislature. will the state gop take a second look at positions on immigration and same-sex marriage? how are changing demographics in the sunbelt states impacting the

electoral strategies? what can a fierce party between the tea party and business wing in idaho's second district tell us? coal of the u.s. senate could be determined in louisiana, north carolina, where democrats, can they make a successful last stand in the south, where a shift over the last two decades has left republicans in control of most statewide offices. can political kidynasties save e gop party? in michigan, can detroit, the largest city ever to seek bankruptcy protection, turn around a financial crisis decades in the making? how will the fight over medication expansion, the newest front in the health care fight, play out in state capitols this year? in 2013, eight states passed 11 voter i.d. bills, mostly moving towards stricter requirements. online vetter registration was introduced in 17 states and bill

law in illinois, virginia, and west virginia. will the next round be fought, and how will changing election laws impact party registration? how will the politics of pot play out in colorado and states rights? what about other states? all year, we'll bring you a series of state-by-state, week-long close-ups, talking to the political power brokers on the front lines, and the political reporters who understand each state best. the 2014 campaign is truly kicking off this week in general. call this week the opening ceremonies of the midterm olympics. since we have the rights, i think i can use the word olympics. tomorrow, former president bill clinton will campaign in kentucky. next tuesday, we kick off a series of right on right challenges and tests the strength of senator john cornyn. next thursday, the first cattle call of 2016 begins, cpac, featuring a slew of presidential contenders, including senators

cruz, paul, rubio, congressman ryan, governors perry, christie. and then, a bellwether election in 13th florida district gives us the first clue about the two party's messages going into the fall. that brings us to the fight for florida. later this hour, the history changing dynamics, big issues to watch in the sunshine state, will be what we do to kick off this week of focus on florida. next week, texas. and after that, we'll let you decide, our hashtag tdr50, so anytime you have a suggestion, be sure to let us know. speaking of the states, president obama has been hosting the governors all weekend and he'll play host again this morning. and though these meetings are always civil, both sides are lining up their arguments. last night, at a black-tie dinner for the governors and their spouses, the president joked about the 2016 candidates in the room, perhaps measuring the drapes. >> tonight, we want to make sure that all of you make yourselves

at home, to which i'm sure some of you are thinking that's been the plan all along. [ laughter ] >> the president explicitly criticized republican governors during remarks at a democratic fund-raiser on thursday, and this morning, in a national review op-ed, bobby jindal returns the favor, writing, the congressional budget office and the administration's own actions have in recent weeks confirmed what most of us already knew that president obama's agenda creates disincentives for americans to work. jindal, who turned some heads last year by calling the gop, quote, stupid party, is apparently playing the role of proxy for new jersey governor chris christie. the rga will hold a briefing after the white house meeting with its chairman -- excuse me, without its chairman. >> as a party, we can't be the party of no. as a party, we've got good solutions. we're going to be meeting with the president. one of the things i want to share with him is that this president -- this administration has a chance to be laser focused on job creation. we're not doing that.

let's increase domestic production of energy, creating hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs. why not delay all the mandates in obamacare, which has become a job killer in our economy? >> a reminder, he was the chair last year. this year, of course, chris christie. he left early, the meeting, to go spend his -- the 18 -- celebrating the 18th birthday of his daughter. joining me is maggie haasen, the vice-chair of the governors association. good morning. >> good morning. >> tell me about dinner. was it all fun? >> it was fun and lovely, and a very good time. >> all right. you're headed over there today, and it's going to be less light hearted and more -- always a q&a session. what's a specific issue you have with the president that you'd like him to deal with? >> well, i think we've all been focusing on growing our innovative economies. certainly that's what we've been doing in new hampshire, being responsive to business needs and really focusing on the middle class, growing the middle class, making sure that we have a strong middle class, which

strengthens our whole economy. and so, we'll be talking with the president about that. in new hampshire, we have some particular initiatives. we have a bipartisan new hampshire-based solution on expanding health care, which will be voted on by our senate in a couple of weeks, and so, those are the kinds of things, how we can work -- >> let me drill in on health care a little bit. here's a state that's got a democratic governor, in yourself. democratic statehouse. republican state senate. >> right. >> normally, in a circumstance like that, you would say, oh, this must be a state that has its own health care exchange and expanded medicaid. you've done neither. why? >> well, for the last two years before the 2012 elections, the tea party had two-thirds control of both of our chambers. they passed a law banning us from accepting federal money or setting up our own exchange, so we've been playing catch-up since. but since the 2012 elections, we've been working with people in both parties to figure out how to expand health care in our state. the democratic house wanted to expand medicaid, as did i.

the republican senate, at first, didn't want to, and we've been working together for a compromise. and that compromise just passed out of the senate -- >> what's more likely, you will expand medicaid, but starting up your own exchange, that will ab while. >> i don't know whether we will. we have a partnership exchange now, and one of the things that our bipartisan agreement has in it is a way for us to -- after putting this new population on medicaid for a year, that gives us time to set up a premium-assistance plan and move that population onto private insurance. >> it does seem to me, looking at it from the outside, the exchange is a big failure for new hampshire, because you have one provider. one. there is a monopoly here. why didn't more insurance comes didn't want to try to insure people in new hampshire? >> first of all, i've been extremely frustrated with the rollout of the federal exchange, the federal website, and it's unacceptable. we only have one insurer on the exchange in new hampshire. new hampshire has had relatively low levels of competition for a

while, partly because we're a small state. >> a lot of small states have this issue. the point of the exchange was you get rid of the monopolies. >> and since we got a late start we couldn't accept money to partner with the feds to set it up. it's been a challenge. we need more competition. one of the things that our health care agreement that will be voted on in a couple of weeks, and i hope very much -- it looks like it should pass, that will, i think, help us bring more competition on the exchange. we already know we have two other insurers coming on next year. >> one of the things about new hampshire that's unique, you can't be a democrat or a republican and ever call for an increase in taxes. that's a nonstarter in your state. instead, you look for other ways to find revenue. you're looking for a casino. >> yes. >> gambling. others are talking about perhaps legalizing marijuana as another way. do you worry that because, you know, there is just a culture -- political culture that says no taxes, you're pursuing vices,

essentially -- gambling, marijuana, whatever it is -- you're hoping for people to have their own vices to pay for services. is that really a way to govern? >> well, when i took office, our budget had been devastated. the tea party had slashed our university funding while cutting cigarette taxes. we had a bipartisan budget, most bipartisan budget in our state in over a decade, in which we reinvested in our universities system. we did a number of other things. reinvested in the community-based mental services without a sales tax, which is the way we've worked our state and our economy's structured around not having one. >> are you comfortable to see gambling -- >> so i support one high-end, highly regulated casino. we're going to have some in massachusetts. we have some in maine, do people in our state gamble in an unregulated way, through charitable gaming, i think it makes sense for us to accept $500 million or more investment for one casino, in a community that wants it in new hampshire and the people of new hampshire

support it. >> i know most people try to get you to talk about 2016 in the sort of normal way, okay, what will happen in the primary. i'm curious. new hampshire's had political whiplash, i would argue, other the last, i would argue, almost decade, one party throws the other party out, and it seems more so it's been all over the place. is the fact that you have your home to the new hampshire primary in this whole national way of inviting new groups into the state, do you think that's made your state politics much harder to deal with, harder to govern? >> we are very proud of the new hampshire primary, which is competitive and always interesting. and i think reflects what i like to say, which is new hampshire does democracy better than anyplace else. what you see from new hampshire voters over the last 16, 20 years, we've had mostly democratic governors. we've had democratic majorities in the house and the senate for the first time since the civil

war in 2006, in 2008. >> and threw them out in '10 and brought them back in '12. >> and what new hampshire does, they go to work every day and solve problems there. they go home and work with their families and solve problems. they go to their communities. and they do it without regard to political difference, and we're making great progress. >> who on the ground is doing, besides hillary clinton on the democratic side, is doing the spade work you're supposed to do if you want to do well in new hampshire? >> i think right now i'm focused on running the state of new hampshire. but we always welcome -- >> you're not name-checking anybody? >> i'm not name-checking anybody. >> i'll leave it at that. governor, thank you for coming on. enjoy the rest of your stay here in washington. >> thank you very much. >> all right. a little breaking news here. a long time member of congress, john dingell, longest serving member of congress, told "the detroit free press" he's retiring at the end of his term. the 87-year-old is expected to

make the official announcement public today at noon. up next, lights, camera, election. if you want to win an oscar, you'll have to go get the votes. we're breaking down the costly and complicated politics of the academy awards next. a reminder as i told you and teased you a at the top of the show, the new rundown begins today. before we go to break, a look at today's "politics planner." it's a big day. last day of the governors being in town. q&a session with the president. i always say be the man with the plan

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well, we told you it's a big campaign year, right? well, we're just days away from getting the results in a high-stakes, big-money nationwide election. the next 24 hours will be the biggest push for votes in that campaign. even the organizers admit on the home page, quote, each november, an election campaign rivals the passions and sometimes the excesses of the quad renial race for the nation's presidency. of course, it's academy awards nomination season. 6,000 people get to vote. the stakes are incredibly high. study published last week showed getting nominated can make up to 27% of a film's total box office gross. that's about $3 million, give or take a million each year. so the nominating process for this red carpet election is like a party primary. actors can only nominate actors, film editors can only nominate film editors, and the final ballots are due back tomorrow.

in the final balloting, every active member of the academy can vote in almost every category. from the moment the nominations are announced to the moment the winners' names are read, the campaigning is intense. they say they've eliminated gimmicky advertising. and some filmmakers take it a step further. in mid-december, leonardo dicaprio hand delivered a copy of "the wolf of wall street" to the white house. the average cost for a campaign is $5 million around oscar time. one of hollywood's best known tacticians is harvey weinstein. he has five films in the running, one is "the butler." he made news last month on cbs when he complained about his star oprah winfrey getting snubbed for other awards. weinstein sounded like a savvy campaign manager when he explained the timing of the movie's release and the pool of voters hurt oprah's chances.

>> the fact that oprah didn't get a golden globe nomination is shocking. thankfully, she got the screen actors guild, which reflects more of the academy, and she got the british bafta last week, because the globes aren't members of the academy, the hollywood foreign press, but the two other groups have huge crossover. >> look at that. sounds like campaigning, doesn't it? weinstein has hired former deputy campaign manager for obama, to help promote philamena. he hired her to tweet about "silver linings playbook." jennifer lawrence won last year. robert redford is on the flip side of campaigning success. redford did not get a nomination and blames the studio for insufficient campaigning. so like any election, there are winners and losers, and this sunday we'll get the results. i'm joined by seasoned political pro, chris dodd, now the ceo in a parallel political universe, as the leader of the motion

picture association of america. am i too cynical in how i laid this out, or is this as politically savvy as we all think it is? >> it's the iowa caucuses. >> it is. it really is a big deal. >> you're right. it is the night, there'll be globally about a billion people who watch the oscars. 40 million here in the united states. it is super bowl night in a sense. >> right. >> it celebrates the achievements, and this year in particular, i think a great year for film, given the nominees in the various categories, directors, best actress. so in a sense, as you point out, there are dollars obviously associated with this. in addition to the recognition that you akmeev by being nominated, and, of course, winning. >> it's interesting with all of the focus, it seems as if the movie studios now, they just decide, okay, if something -- if they think something can get oscar buzz, then they say, okay, we'll wait to release it right around -- it's almost now they applaud for the a.d.d. aspect of

things. i'm shocked that "42" is a movie that got released almost a year ago. >> mm-hmm. >> arguably, if it got released in november, we'll be talking about "42" as probably one of the oscar nominees. but because it was released in april, no buzz whatsoever, and it falls off the stage, it seems like. >> some do, and "captain phillips" last summer, and it gets nominated. there's proximity to the voting nominations. it's still a human endeavor. i'm a voting member of the academy. >> is that a privilege that comes with the mpa. >> yeah, historically jack valenti did so, but i only get to vote on best picture, or nominate best picture. i can vote after that, but nominating -- >> okay. >> -- just that one category. and as you point out earlier, then you have to be a director, you have to be an actor to choose in these other categories, so it does bring professionalism to the choices. >> it's interesting to me, does

your mailbox fill up with flyers? how do you -- how does a -- you're a voter. so how do you get -- >> there are specific rules on how to do this. in fact, i get the screeners, obviously, and screeners long before the nomination process, so the films -- >> you start getting those when? >> start getting them in the fall. october. september, october. and then usually a package with it that'll talk about the film itself, what they tried to achieve in a i was. so it's not a press release. but it does highlight the achievements in the film. >> and the things that they believe should be oscar worthy. >> should be recognized, what it's trying to achieve and accomplish. but i never get any phone calls. >> okay. >> there's no direct-mail operations that come in to me. at least, i'm not aware of those. >> the amount of -- what is a win financially worth to a studio? i know you can't put a dollar figure, but percentage-wise, is it, something, 25% increase in box office -- what is it --

>> the nominations, a story this morning in "washington post," where they opponent out that 25, 30, 35, 40%, once they were nominated. winning is another category altogether. but just being nominated creates buzz. people say, well, maybe i'll see that. i didn't realize it was good or didn't hear about it before. so the numbers vary. there's no consistent number. but clearly being nominated for best picture, best actor, best leading performance by an actress, clearly bumped that product up one degree or another. some very high. some gaining revenue. >> what i'm fascinated this year is i feel like it is the best picture nominees and what hollywood's been producing is reflective of our political culture in the moment. so "american hustle" os tensely about politicians gone bad, and "12 years a slave" a reminder of the dark history as a country. "wolf of wall street," the issue

of greed on wall street. i mean, it is -- do you think this is just hollywood simply reflecting where they think the country is, or reflecting where they want to push a political agenda? >> remember, most of the films probably began in the case of "wolf of wall street," leonardo dicaprio has been pushing that film for years and years. they're normally two, three, four years in the making. so predicting what the mood of the country will be -- and it was almost impossible. it's reflective, last year "argo" did well, but the iranian crisis is still very much in people's minds. there is some of that. clearly the relationship between government, if you will and industry and business, i think have always had an appealing audience. >> yeah, definitely a populist field. word of john dingell retiring. he has served in congress going back to the '30s. just reflections? >> well, remarkable member. he is living history, as you point out, but also significant

contributions to the legislative agenda over the years. he's hardly been just a spectator. i mean, really engaged -- chairing the kmi it, the commerce committee in the house for years and years, and aggressive fighter on behalf of the automobile industry, but also on so many issues involving the financial services of the industry of the country. so a significant accomplishment over his many, many years, longevity. i think he exceeds length of time anyone has served. >> right. >> his dad goes back an awful long time, as well. remarkable member. and will be missed in many ways, because he wasn't -- he wasn't just a spectator. >> he brought context to a lot of things. and people talk term issues -- >> and i have to tell you, social awards season, credits.org, if you want to be a star at your oscar party, go to cred credits.org, social award season, they predict through social media who will win the academy awards -- >> then who needs you?

who needs the voters? >> even if you have never gone to a movie, you look good on oscar night. >> it's a way to tailgate the oscars. >> there you go. thanks, chuck. >> up next, cold war tensions heating up, and an arrest warrant out for the former president of ukraine and national security advisor susan rice warns russia not to intervene to save him. before we go to break, today's trivia question, as we kick off the tdr 50 state projects. how many times has florida not voted for the winner of the presidential race? first person to tweet the correct answer will get the on-air shoutout. [ female announcer ] who are we? we are the thinkers. the job jugglers. the up all-nighters. and the ones who turn ideas into action. we've made our passions our life's work. we strive for the moments where we can say, "i did it!" ♪ we are entrepreneurs who started it all...

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$35 billion to keep the country from falling into economic ruin. it's just one challenge facing the former soviet republic as it tries to pick up the pieces after ousting president viktor yanukovych in a three-month uprising. richard engel has more from the scene in kiev. >> reporter: chuck, it has been a tumultuous week here of political change and political upheaval. a revolution has taken place. and it seems now parliament has taken charge. parliament has aopponented its speaker to the be interim president, and an arrest warrant has been issued for i think it's fair to say former president yanukovych. he's being charged with mass murder. the accusations of mass murder center around events that took place here over several hours on thursday morning. protesters broke out of the square armed with sticks and molotov cocktails, and they charged police liens. security forces fired into the

crowds. was itself defense? they killed more than 70 people. the video that has emerged show that riot police were not firing as they were retreating. they appear to show sniper teams organized, calmly receiving orders, maneuvering tactically, getting authorization, and then firing. it shows a far more deliberate effort by the security forces to shoot and ultimately kill the protesters. chuck? >> thank you, richard. meanwhile, russia and the u.s. are both doing a bit of sabre rattling today, warning each other not to mettle in ukraine's future. national security advisor susan rice in her first appearance on "meet the press" in a year and half said bluntly, any attempt to interfere for moscow would be a, quote, grave mistake. >> it's not in the interests of ukraine or of russia or europe or the united states to see the country split. it's in nobody's interests to see violence return and the situation escalate.

>> the same time, rice rejected the idea that recent events in ukraine and elsewhere have pushed the u.s. and russia back into a cold war style mentality. >> that's a pretty dated perspective that doesn't reflect where the people of ukraine are kwoming from. this is not about the u.s. and russia. this is about whether the people of ukraine have the opportunity to fulfill their aspirations and be a democratic and be part of europe, which they choose to be. it's not necessary, nor is it our interests, to return to a cold war construct, which is long out of date and that doesn't reflect the realities of the 21st century. >> but on cbs, on "face the nation," john mccain said president obama is being naive when it comes to dealing with vladimir putin. >> the president said that this had nothing to do with the cold war, the issue -- the situation in ukraine. in the eyes of vladimir putin, it does. he wants to restore the russian empire. and he continues to want to push that reset button and not

realize what keend of people we're dealing with. >> mccain also added that putin shouldn't assume that the kind of uprising that drove yanukovych from power will stop at the border of ukraine. >> the people of russian -- of russia have watched this transpire, and they're tired of the crony capitalism and the cleptocrisy that governs russia today. >> one more piece of national security news from the sunday shows. mccain was one of susan rice's most vocal critics when she described the 2012 attack on the u.s. compound in benghazi as a spontaneous demonstration. on sunday, rice tried to defend those comments. >> that information turned out in some respects not to be 100% correct, but the notion that somehow i or anybody else in the administration misled the american people is patently false. >> i'm almost speechless, because it's patently obvious,

first of all, that susan rice had no reason to be on the program. she had no involvement in it. of course, the information was totally misleading, totally false, and for susan rice to say such a thing, i think -- it's a little embarrassing to tell you the truth. >> in case you're wondering, benghazi politics has not been shelved. up next, hanging chads, shifting demographics and closely watched election around the corner. we're kicking off the tdr politics with a "deep dive" into the state of florida.

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as we kick off our 50 state project, we begin with a deep dive into nye home state, the sunshine state. it was the political battleground 14 years ago when the vote in florida became the deciding factor in the presidential election between george w. bush and al gore. something that my colleague and

mentor, the late tim russert saw coming from a mile away. >> i honestly believe, matt, as goes florida will go the nation. if i'm mistaken, i'll be the first to admit it. but i think that is the critical state. >> well, as russert put it so famously, florida, florida, florida. for 36 days, it left the presidency in doubt, introduced the public to hanging chads and helped shape the state's political identity. it's a tricky environment that's rewarded those with demographics and punish those who treat florida as a single state. it's much more. florida in many ways is the perfect mike row come of the country as a whole. the i-4 corridor is like every american suburb. every chain restaurant is somewhere in orlando or tampa. the south is like the panhandle. the southwest is like the midwest thanks to the transplanted retirees from the chicago area. the southeast is like the northeast, thanks to the

snowbirds. an african-american population above the national average and hispanic population well above the national average, particularly in the southern tip of the state. like america has san francisco, florida has key west. over the past 60 years, florida has voted for the republican presidential candidate twice as often as the democrat. but the democrat has won the state three times, including clinton in '96 and president obama twice. the average margin of victory in all of the elections was just three points. florida hasn't voted for a losing presidential candidate since '92 and the hope for democrats is that in an increasingly more diverse population in that state, it will help keep the state in their column. if you go back to '96, nonwhites made up less than 20% of florida's voting population in presidential races. whites made up more than 80%. by 2004, 27% of the electorate was nonwhite, a gain of eight percentage opponents. white electorate skipped to 73%. 2012, nonwhites made up a third of the voting population.

14% from hispanic voters. whites were down to just 67%. democrats have seen the future, and it is florida. meanwhile, the state's overall population continues to grow. it's the fourth-largest state in the country, but some experts predict it will surpass new york state in the next few years, in part because, well, of the number of new york transplants. at the same time, the number of republicans and democrats have grown, as well, but at a much slower pace than people registered under a third or independent party. in 2000, florida was home to 3.8 million democrats and 3.5 million republicans. 1.5 million people were registered to third parties. data from 2014 shows the number of democrats have risen 800,000. number of republicans risen 600,000. look at this. the number of folks registering as another party, up 1.4 million, growing by more than 90%. and while democrats outnumber republican, the gop is still running the show statewide. the party controls all three bases of power, the governor's mansion, the statehouse and the

senate. the two florida u.s. senates are split. the congressional delegation thanks to reapportionment and fact that republicans control the state legislature leans to the right. one vacated by bill young who passed away last year. it's young's seat that's considered a key bellwether, a swing district in a swing state. for that reason, it's considered a prime testing ground for the kind of political tactics and messaging we'll see in the fall. as proof of that, outside groups have already spent some $4 million on the race between democrat alex sink and david jolly. the election is two weeks from tomorrow. that's just the warm-up for the big event in florida. that would be the governor's race, one that turns an entrepreneur against rick scott turned democrat charlie crist. he may have an advantage over scott, one of the least popular governors in the country. one more thing on this race. it could be one of the most

expensive in history. not just florida's history. in any state election. scott set the record by spending $73 million of his own money in 2010 and chris warrens, he could spend $100 million, part of the democrats' push to get up their financial house in order, as well. they may spend up to $75 million. mark caputo is the political reporter for "the miami herald." he joins me now. mark, it's quite a couple of rates you have to cover this year. bellwether races in many ways. let's start with the special election. what have you been watching on the ground? we see both candidates are desperate not to have this race nationalized, but it seems like it's been nationalized. >> it's definitely been nationalized. the amount of anti-obamacare messaging by republican and conservative groups has been rather high. it will be an interesting test to see how well the message sticks. one thing to watch for is absentee ballot returns. that used to be a strength of

republicans, but we're seeing more democratic votes proportionally being cast in that race and possibly eating up some of the republican margin of registration. republicans hold a slighter edge in registration in the district. but polls seem to show that alex cink is going to win this. >> tactically, it seems like democrats -- in fact, i've been ahead of the republicans on this issue for years. in florida. the recent years, going back to 2008, that they essentially, obama carried the state both times, arguably on tactics and performance onto ground. >> right. the republican party of florida turnout machine is vaunted for a reason. they do a great job getting the vote out, because republicans are greatly outnumbered in the state, probably by about 500,000 registered voters or so. you know, in the 2012 elections, despite the obama turnout machine, republicans voted in greater proportions relative to the registration than democrats. the difference is the democratic slice of the pie is so much bigger, that they can kind of

get by and win with a smaller percentage turnout. >> let me ask you this. i've had people ask me this question, being a floridians, and i don't have a good answer, maybe i don't have a politically correct answer. >> no one does. >> yeah, and that is how is it that both parties -- here it is one of the most competitive states, if not the most competitive state in the union, and yet the campaign benches of potential candidates seem to be as thin as ever on both sides of the aisle, that there's just a lot of wounded candidates, democrats and republicans. but, also, not too many rising stars. why is that? >> i think the republicans have a greater bench, because they've been in power longer and they've had an ability to have more politicians and more statewide offices. adam putnam, pam bondy, and a.g. means "almost governor," but the party to capitalize on the voter registration edge has been certainly if you're a democrat pretty embarrassing. the best hope for governor, to win the governor's race, is a

former republican, charlie crist. >> right. >> and right now, polls indicate he might actually win it, but as i said before, the news between early polls and voter performance, two separate things. >> yeah, if not for charlie crist and alex cink, it's sort of -- there was no third person that they were looking to, was there? >> there was no real third big name. some of the bill nelson partisans would love him to run. certainly with the u.s. senate up for grabs the way it,the last thing they'd want him to do is vacate that seat and leave it up to the republican legislature to help decide how that seat gets filled. >> let me ask you a quick presidential question, between jeb bush and marco rubio, where are the big florida money guys? we know that there's a huge number of major national fund-raisers that call florida home. they're very closely tie in both rubio and jeb bush. if you were to take a private poll on the republican side, who would they prefer? >> that's a good -- that's a

good question. i didn't pick, because i have a strong suspicion that jeb is not going to run. but if he were going to run, i would think they would side more with jeb, in part because the early polls show he has a better chance. albeit that's in florida. certainly rubio and jeb have pretty soft immigration stances. >> yeah. >> from the perspective of the far right. and, also, jeb has had a tendency to lecture republicans like he did at cpac last year, and there's a growing number of conservatives that don't like that. >> i'll leave things there. i'm sure we'll see you a lot this year, because the most expensive -- i think it will be the most expensive governors race in american history, forget florida history. >> rick scott has already raised about $31 million this election cycle. >> and just wait until he writes his own check, too. thank you very much. as we said, we're putting the spotlight on the sunshine state all this week. and this is the start of a year-long effort on our part to take you to each and every one of the 50 states.

the quirks, the history, what to look for, rising stars, all sorts of things. so stay tuned. the home state could be next. tdr 50 is our hashtag. first, the white house soup of the day. a bland soup for the governors as they dine with the president today. ow, picking him up and holding him against me. it wasn't just about me anymore. i had to quit. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. chantix didn't have nicotine in it, and that was important to me. [ male announcer ] some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these, stop chantix and see your doctor right away, as some could be life threatening. tell your doctor if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, or if you develop new or worse symptoms.

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as part of our year-long look every week, we'll also look at legendary races in each of our states. every state has its own list of the races, some are so famous they've been written about, while others may not have seemed important at the time, ended up with major implications down the road. today i'm going to look at two races in florida's history. first up, we're going to go way back to a democratic senate primary of 1950. it's sort of a legend in florida when claude pepper was chjd by george smathers. he was asked to run against pepper, who had been part of an unsuccessful campaign to dump truman. communism was the defining divide in american politics. smathers painted his opponent as a communist sympathizer, but the most memorable moment in this campaign was when smathers was reported to have said pepper had a sister who was once a thespian

in wicked new york. pepper ended up losing that race and whole idea of a thespian, a known thespian, which, of course, she was an actress. smathers beat pepper in the primary, pepper ran in congress after that. 1998, little-known race for secretary of state. a republican socialite decided to jump into the republican primary, challenging the incumbent, who had a scandal. she beats her and then faces the democrat, well, harris won and became a central figure in the 2000 presidential election recount in florida, was cochair of george w. bush's campaign and made the decision to certify bush as the winner, setting up the supreme court showdown. if a democrat had won this race, which had more thump than the incumbent secretary of state, the democrat would have won that race, guess what, that election

doesn't get certified, at that moment, and history is changed. these are just two examples of significant races in florida, but we want to hear from you. let us know which races qualify from your state by tweeting us and using the #tdr50. we all know there's always the state with the mythology behind it, like pepper/smathers, where the truth is faded away, but also like the ones in 1998. after the show, head to our website, rundown.msnbc.com. i had the long interview with michigan's john dingle last year. he had a lot to share about the current president, congress in general, a lot of history there with john dingle. take a look at it. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." coming up next, chris jansing. again, our big new lineup starts today. "news nation" at 11:00, ronan farrow at 1:00, and joe reid at

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breaking news from the supreme court where we've just learned the court will not take up three major gun cases, and that leaves federal and state gun control laws on the books. pete williams will join us from the court to break down the implications. also this morning, a breakthrough in ukraine. a new temporary government is now trying to figure out what's next. the people are praying, the president is missing, so what would democracy look like? and later this hour, could you live on $7.25 an hour? a group of minnesota lawmakers are trying to do just that, but will it change the politics involved in raising the minimum wage? good morning, i'm ari melber in for chris jansing. we begin with president obama, who hasn't had much success with th