there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. the electoral impact of gay marriage coming to red state america. good morning. if you've managed to join us at 8:00 a.m. sharp this sunday morning despite the clocks leaping forward here in the u.s. in the wee hours over-the-night, we're especially grateful to have you. a lot of news this morning. first, however, we want to update you briefly on the search and a investigation in a that missing malaysia airlines plane. rescue teams have widened their search area for the missing boeing jet. indications that it may have turned back before disappearing from radar.

this aregaccording to malaysian officials. >> we need to look back into the way we do things and we actually what we have done is looked into the recording on the radar that we have. and we realize that there's a possibility -- there is a possibility it may have turned back. >> the ceo of the airlines said the pilot is supposed to let air traffic control and the airline know when he's turning a plane around, but that officials did not receive a distress call from flight mh 370 which vanished from radar screens en route to beijing from kuala lumpur. 239 people onboard that flight including three americans. meanwhile, authorities are also investigating how two passengers were apparently able to get on the plane using stolen passports. the bbc has confirmed both passengers bought their tickets at the same time. 30 hours since the flight vanished and there remains no sign of the plane and no

indication what exactly happened to it. it's a developing story msnbc will it continue to uptate throughout the morning. let's now get to our show and turn to a story you've maybe heard before, a new poll showing support for same sex marriage reaching all-time highs. we've rolled out that headline more than once these past few years and it happened again this week in a bigger way than of. this with a new "washington post"/abc news poll showing that 59% of americans now say they support same sex marriage, the highest number ever recorded in the poll on that question. just 34% who say they're opposed. that 25-point spread is the widest margin ever tracked. this is the latest mark eer of w public opinion changed and is changing on the subject. in 2004 george w. bush's re-election campaign infamously leaned on same-sex marriage opposition to drum up enthusiasm and turn quout. 55% of americans said they

oppose opposed it and just 37% supported it. but those numbers have now more than reversed nationally. and so once again this is an issue that's a potentially p potent political weapon just like it was in 2004 except basically in reverse. this poll shows same-sex marriage has wide support, almost completely across the board. 70% support among white catholics. 56% among hispanics. the only major resistance is from white evangelical protestants only 28% it and 66% remain opposed. there is still as well significant opposition among the elderly although even among older americans support for same sex marriage wins out by a slight 47% to 43% margin. these data points pose a conflict for certain kinds of defensem democrats. because they have a future in the democratic party especially if you have national aspirations, you have to get this issue right. the democratic party, national

support for same-sex marriage is now at 70%. but to make it to the national stage, you have to win in your home state first. and there are still plenty of states in america where supporting same-sex marriage is far from the majority view. states with the electorate may be composed of evangelicals and older voters. states like kentucky, the bluegrass state, home of the wildcats. just a little over eight months since the supreme court struck down the defense of marriage act, that barred federal benefits for same-sex couples but invoked the equal protection clause of the constitution. and since then lawsuits challenging state laws that ban sa same-sex marriage are being challenged all across the country even in deeply ions. the complete opposite in kentucky of what they are nationally and the latest poll there, 55% of the state's registered voters opposed it with 35% supporting it. that's where america as a whole

was ten years ago. but back then, back ten years ago, opposition in kentucky was even stronger. and in the 2004 general election, 75% of kentuckians voted to amend the state constitution to limit marriage to one man and one woman. in the wake of doma's repeal last year, that amendment became the target of a lawsuit brought by four same-sex couples. on february 27 of this year, federal judge ruled the amendment was in violation of the u.s. constitution's equal protection clause and that kentucky treats gay and lesbian couples differently and in a way that demeans them. the ruling wept on to say that, quote, a signing of religious and traditional national law does not make it constitutional when that law discriminates against a class of people without other reasons. and this was a limited ruling. even with those strong words, the federal judge did not order kentucky to start issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. but the ruling did say that the state had to recognize all valid

marriages, straight or gay, performed in other states. it meant, in other words, that there could be legally married gay couples in a state where opposition to gay marriage is the electorate's overwhelming view. it created a serious political dilemma for the state's attorney general, an ambitious democrat i was talk iing about earlier. he ran for u.s. senate in 2010, losing that race to rand paul. he's publicly said he's interested in running for governor next year. it was jack conway, the politically ambitious democratic attorney of kentucky, forced by that federal judge's ruling to make a choice. would he, as the chief law enforcement officer in the state, appeal the ruling and defend in court the state's ban on gay marriage? the ban that voters approved by a 3-1 margin in 2004. or would he follow the lead of other attorneys general from other states, many blue states? eric holder dechind to defend

the law. to say that he as the attorney general would not try to stop gay marriage from coming to kentucky. there's now a dilemma at the national level. you really can't be a democrat today and not support same sex marria marriage. but to win a job like governor that could be a stepping stone to the national stage, it may still be politically fatal to be identified with same sex marriage. so late last month conway asked for a 90-day stay on that order from the judge seeking time to decide whether to appeal the ruling. and then this past tuesday he called a press conference. >> i have evaluated the judge's legal analysis and today am informing my client and the people of kentucky that i am not appealing the decision and will not be seeking any further stays. from a constitutional perspective, judge habrin got it

right. >> conway went on to say the state could not waste its resour resources on defending a law that was clearly unconstitutional at the federal level. then he also address ed those wo were telling him it's his job as attorney general to defend the law mo mno matter what. >> there are those who believe it's my mandatory duty, regardless of my personal opinion, to continue to defend this case through the appellate process. and i have heard from many of them. however, i came to the inescapable conclusion that if i did so, i would be defending discrimination. that i will not do. >> this was an unusually emotional press conference with conway even choking up saying he wanted to make a decision that would make his daughters proud one day. the front page of "the

courier-journal" caught a tear falling from his eye. the state's democratic governor who was barred by term limits from seeking re-election next year, decided he would hire outside counsel and go ahead and pursue an appeal of the ruling. the decision is not only playing out in kentucky's 2015 governor's race, it may also have an impact on the state's closely watched u.s. senate race. on the republican side mitch mcconnell is under attack from the senate conservatives fund and from his tea party primary challenger matt beven for his connection to the judge who issued the ruling. he was appointed to the federal bench by george h.w. bush it 22 years ago and was once mcconnell's general counsel. in kentucky, within the republican party of kentucky, it still seems to be a race by candidates to prove how against same-sex marriage they are. on the democratic side this is proving to be a sensitive

subject to lund green-grimes. she was on a tour of a farm when the proprietor asked her, quote, do you believe in adam and eve, don't you? she asked, is this another le lesson i'm learning here? no, the man insisted. do you believe in adam and eve, not adam and steve, don't you gay marriage, you don't support that, do you? grimes spontded that she thinks everyone should have the ability to marry and that the supreme court has ruled on this. it's a state sovereign issue. we have a constitutional amendment. now that's not to say they won't readdress it. friday we asked grimes' reaction to wonway's conway's decision not to appeal. she's been married to her husband for seven years and wouldn't want to deny other couples to make that same commitment. while the supreme court has ruled state sovereignty applies, churches should not be forced to recognize anything inconsistent with their teachings.

alison respects conway as the chief enforcement officer. firm support are for marriage of equality but language on state sovereignty. this is clearly an issue she does not want to be saying much about in public. think of this as the mirror image of america as a whole. in the same week the polling showed acceptance of marriage widening to record levels nationally. big swaths of the country where the politics on the issue run the opposite way. it cruiserweights a did i l it creates a dilemma for those everywhere. how much slack are they willing to give to candidates and elected officials in states like k kentucky? joining me to discuss all of this we have abby rapport, a staff writer at the american prospect, mark solomon, national campaign director with the group freedom to marry, al cross, a columnist at "the courier-journal" be and a director at the university of kentucky, and juwan, a miss kentucky pageant winner from

2010 who just came out last month as a lesbian. she now works in constituent services in the office of kentucky governor steve bashir but we make clear she is not here to represent him today. so, al, i guess i'm so interested in this it particular topic because in had kentucky, in particular, red state america as a whole but kentucky in particular, because this is one of those states it's trended so red at the federal level when it comes to presidential elections. i think mitt romney carried it by 23 points. we have the polling there on same sex marriage. it's very unpopular in the state. and yet democrats can still win at the statewide level in kentucky. they still do well. this announcement by jack conway, politically ambitious attorney general for the state, how is it going over for him in the state now? >> i think it's to his advantage in the democratic primary. it may not be in the general election.

75% against gay marriage ten years ago. only 55% today. there's no praf that mark a twain ever said that he want ed to be in kentucky when he died. but we are culturally slower to accept such things partly because, as the polling indicated, there's strong opposition among evangelicals. i would say black evangelicals, too. and kentucky is a plurality state. times are changing. this week a bill to have a statewide anti-gay discrimination law got its first hearing in the legislature. the more interesting aspect of this may have been the governor's position. the governor and the attorney

general are independently elected. the governor is the attorney general's client. the governor in deciding to appeal on his own with privately hired lawyers is doing two things. and i presume there's some political calculus that went into this. he's acting in the interest of his son who is running for attorney general in 2015. >> a the son of the democratic governor wants to run for attorney general. >> and i think more importantly for democrats as a whole, he is protecting the democratic brand in the state. obama has damaged the democratic brand in kentucky. people are less likely to vote democratic. if you had the democratic attorney general and the democratic governor both declining to appeal a ruling that flies in the face of a lot of voters' values, that would be bad for the democratic brand. and the democrats are in tanger of losing the state house in the fall elections and they have the senate race that is very much on

the front burner. so i think the governor's political calculus, if there was one, was to protect that brand. >> that's interesting. now did duwan, talk about the other political race in kentucky, the one everyone is watching, the senate race. we played that, we showed that statement we got from alison grimes' campaign and that exchange she had with the farmer last year. she is sending significaals tha yes, i support gay marriage but also clearly uncomfortable talking about this. how much slack are you willing to give her in the campaign like this to sort of, hey, she sees the polls, she is not politically safe maybe to be out front on it. how much leadership do you want to see from her versus how much are you willing to say she has to deal with these polls? >> i think one of the things that really anyone who is watching a political race wants to see is someone be bold in their decisions.

she is saying everyone deserves their rights but then at the same time she is riding the fence and saying, you know, everyone deserves their rights but we can't make anyone do anything. people want to hear her say, like the farmer urged her, you do believe in adam and eve, not the adam and steve? >> the most important word she said in that statement, steve, was churches. that's what people in kentucky see as the threat. marriage is all bound up in religion. and the resistance to this begins to erode when people see another really basic fundamental thing, the need to love and be lov loved. and as people realize that's what's going on here, i think their opinions will continue to evolve and favor. >> i want to broaden this out. we'll take a break here. kentucky isn't the only red state where something like this is playing out. again and again you hear -- we were just looking this week at

democrats trying to navigate the issue in the red states and 24e come back to providing protection for churches for religious groups, from not having to perform gay marriages. we'll talk about all of the red states and how democrats are dealing with the issue when we come back. is so soft you can actually see the softness with our comfort cushions. plus you can use up to four times less. enjoy the go with charmin ultra soft. so i get invited to quite a few family gatherings. heck, i saved judith here a fortune with discounts like safe driver, multi-car, paperless. you make a mighty fine missus, m'lady. i'm not saying mark's thrifty. let's just say, i saved him $519, and it certainly didn't go toward that ring. am i right? [ laughs ] [ dance music playing ] so visit progressive.com today. i call this one "the robox."

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people across this country are evolving on that issue and moving in a way that defensem demonstrates support for it. so i think it is time to reopen that conversation and ask texans where they are on it to see if that's something we might change legislatively if it didn't doesn't happen constitutionally. >> wendy davis, a democratic candidate for governor in texas last month on whether she would push for legislation to overturn her state's ban on same sex marriage. you covered texas politics like

nobody else. this is another very conservative red state. this is -- i haven't seen the latest polling on fwae marriage there but i assume it's similar to kentucky when there was a court ruling for it. rick perry, the outgoing governor was quick to condemn it. there's a lot of -- it's an uphill battle that wendy davis is facing but when it comes to navigating same sex marriage in t texas, can you given us a taste of what she's dealing with? >> the big difference, i think, between texas and kentucky is obviously there's a much higher proportion. because of that you have an interesting dynamic. people like in houston the mayor went and got married, she's a lesbian. in san antonio mayor castro has been quite out in front in his support of gay marriage. and so in these cities with which are huge population

centers but largely voters of color, you are seeing a pretty strong shift, i think, to sort of being unafraid of the political implications of saying i support gay marriage. meanwhile you have to win the rest of the state and that's wendy davis' problem. wendy davis has to walk this line of trying to kind of attract more voters from suburbs, more white voters and interesting, i think, break is that women tend to support gay marriage much more than men. if you look at wendy davis as the battleground texas, obama staffers are trying to make texas a xcompetitive state, the are looking at increasing voter turnout among voters of color, it particularly latino voters, and trying 0 to swing female voters. that is sort of the political calculus of someone like wendy davis not trying to get too far but certainly the people down the road like castro who also thinks he has a pretty strong political faw tour in tfuture ie state is thinking those groups

will add up to enough that i don't have to worry about the old, white, evangelical voters. >> in kentucky we can see ten years ago, 75, now 55%. mark, i wonder how you look at that. we were trying to go through the list before the show and who are the remaining democratic senators who are against gay marriage? i think it's mark prior and joe manchin and where mary landrieu comes in. this is how he addressed it. >> i was raised on a little farm in west virginia. i don't believe in any aspect of discrimination. i wasn't raised that way, no matter who you are, what you are, no discrimination. human beings should treat each other as human beings. with that being said, i do believe marriage is between a man and a woman. >> how do you think about this

nationally? west virginia is a very conservative state. there's a senate race playing out where republicans are currently expected to win. you have somebody like joe manchin who is still against gay marriage but for the nondiscrimination act. you can make the case that from the u.s. senator standpoint it's more important to be voting for the end more than gay marriage. do you say, yeah, we've to cut him some slack because he's from west virginia? >> the people are ahead of the politicians in the south, with but this "washington post" poll that you talked about first was that 50% of southerners across the board support the freedom of marriage. 42% oppose. and i think the politicians are catching up to where people are and things are moving so quickly that it's hard for elected officials to catch up to where people are. >> it's still, like we say, in

k kentucky it's still, it would seem the numbers suggest a weapon that republicans and opponents of gay marriage could use like the bush campaign in 2004. djuan, i'm interested in your personal story as well in kentucky. that can tell us about the culture of the state. when you announced that you are gay, i imagine it was a big surprise to a lot of people in the state. tell me about what the reaction was like. what did you hear from kentuckians? >> i've got then a the lot of positive reaction. and on the flip side of that, there have also -- let me go back to what actually prompted the writing of the blog and the coming out. i was involved in a lot of conversations where i was hearing people say things like, this is the abomination of our nation and this is adam and eve not adam and steve kind of things. it fired me up. people would be talking to mae not knowing, hey, i'm gay as well. i don't believe in what you're saying. and i think that people are not aware enough to know, and the

more that we bring about that awareness, the more it, i guess, kind of brings about that sensitivity in people to understand this is not a conversation about those people. like, these are people that are your neighbors. these are people that you work with. these are people that you see in the drive-through every day, wherever you go, they are everywhere. that's what really needs to be the main focus of the conversation is understanding that these are just human beings. >> i was going to say i think also the sort of shift from it being a conversation about marriage and the sort of threat to marriage versus a conversation about discrimination, right, the sort of arizona laws that get so much attention, the sort of comparison to lunch counters, right, and the idea this is a civil rights issue as opposed to this is a threat to your church. i think that's been a transition since the bush years that's really made it a lot more -- given a lot more political space

for people in these states like joe manchin, sort of gives themselves some room so then if he decides he wants to move over further, well, i've always said i was against discrimination. and now i realized this is a discrimination issue. in texas you have mark mckinnon, one of the bush administration architects around the 2004 election pushed heavily some of the rhetoric -- i don't know that he personally but was very involved in a campaign that was using this as a wedge issue who is now, i mann, i'm sure you can speak to this more, has taken the lead in a it texas group on trying to win more rights for gay men and women in texas. >> one of our chairs for the freedom to marry. and things are changing quickly. people are thinking about their kids and what kind of legacy they want to present to their kids. when this issue came up to me, was i for discrimination or against it? do i want to treat others as though i wanted to be treated? things are moving so quickly.

>> i want to talk about sort of where the end game is on this. talking years down the line. we've reached a point now we've put the map up on the screen before where there's sort of a gay marriage divide in this country that almost mirrors the red state/blue state divide. when this becomes something that is as accepted in red states as in blue states, try to figure out when that is going to happen and what to look for. we'll pick that conversation up after this. technology in these . best creation ever! [ female announcer ] always infinity. the only pad made with flexfoam, not fluff. so thin, yet it absorbs 10 times its weight. infinity. clean. dry. fresh. always. still running in the morning? yeah. getting your vegetables every day? when i can. [ bop ] [ male announcer ] could've had a v8. two full servings of vegetables for only 50 delicious calories. they don't know it yet, but they're gonna fall in love,

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do you think they will get traction with that attack on mitch mcconnell? is that going to work? and then we turn around to the general election, we talked about how grimes has been so hesitant to really be out in front on this. do you suspect that will be an issue that affects her, hurts her this november, or will we be talking about ken can ken like, hey, the state may be against it but the bite is out of it as an issue? >> i don't think mcconnell is in danger of losing his primary. he runs the risk of losing the votes in the general election. a lot of republicans who really don't care for him, they think he's been too much of a moderate, too much of an apostate. he has avoided social conservative issues. he's never really run on them. his opponent in the primary and his allies are trying to identify him with the judge who he is joined at the hip

politically with. that will help define mcconnell for those voters, help beven a little bit, but it's not going to make a big difference. in the fall i don't see mcconnell using social conservative issues unless he sees a clear advantage to it. he's a believer in surveys. he's uncomfortable running on socially conservative issues. it would be a real turn for him. i think he realizes there are plenty of outside groups that could use that issue to his benefit. >> and what we're talking about when and how gay marriage comes to red state america and right now what we're seeing in k kentucky is court rulings and will attorneys general be defending these? if they do defend them, can they win their court cases?

there's this debate if the state electorate isn't ready, 35% in kentucky say they're for it, do you think this is a good way to introduce gay marriage to kentucky where the polling is still as low as it is? will that stir extra resentment? will will that make it tougher to win over people to accept gay marriage? >> i don't think so. things are moving so quickly. once they meet couples getting married, they are just like everyone else, they live down the street, they go to church, et cetera, et cetera. those numbers will grow quickly as they're growing across the country and across the south at 50%. i'm not worried. there's the constitution that these judges seven out of seven now over the past year have followed. in places like oklahoma and texas and kentucky. so i'm -- i think things are

going well and i think the people of kentucky will be fine with it. >> are we going to reach a point where we look to that national poll, you know, white the evangelical voters overwhelmingly oppose this still. the reason why that 59% national support isn't much higher. >> people in kentucky aren't going to be quite as okay with it as you may think. we do have a block of white evangelical voters. >> is that going to drop? >> those people are not going to abandon their core beliefs. >> they are right about 50/50 on the issue so things are changing even with evangelicals. it's a generational. >> give it ten more years and it will be about 50 and up over 70. >> it will take longer than that in my state but the trend will continue. >> you told us 20 years. we'll try to hold you to that. al cross, djuan trent, abby

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we'll be here at lifelock doing our thing, [ chime rings ] monitoring over a trillion data points, [ chime rings ] watching out for things your credit card alone can't and relentlessly protecting your identity. get lifelock protection and live life free. [ chime rings ] all of the votes have been counted and we can tell you that the winner of the cpar presidential poll is rand paul, the kentucky senator scoring his second consecutive victory at the annual conservative gal ler copping the field with 31% he was followed by ted cruz who finished a very distant second with just 11%. dr. ben carson who has been prominent in right-wing media the past year, 9% of and chris christie got 8%. the track record of this straw poll when it comes to predicting the gop nominee isn't that good, past winners included rand paul,

george allen and steve forbes, none of whom came close to the nomination. the margin of victory is impressive enough to tell us something where the conservative base is now and even if you pull the straw poll aside, cpac itself is the current passions. 11,000 people attended this year's three-day event which wrapped up when that straw poll tally was announced. the conservative attendees did a lot more than just sit around waiting for presidential contenders to speak. they were also going to argue over and hash out a policy agenda, the new strategies are formulated and the candidates who would lead them are dissected. the national harbor convention center just across from d.c. has been buzzing with conservative bloggers and radio hosts, intellectual leaders, policy, donors, those who organize phone banks, form voluntary armies every election year.

so let's forget about the candidates for a minute. there are other people, those are the people i just mentioned, who i really would like to hear from. and so yesterday we sent msnbc's perry bacon injujr., the politi editor of the grio to find out what's animating them on the right, where they want their movement to go in 2014 and beyond. here is this exclusive report. >> what do you all think about the government? i'm not a very big fan of it myself. this is the title "don't tread on me." >> the most kfb convention of the year, like the oscar for conservatives. >> reporter: what are some issues you hope they talk about? >> fiscal issues. they are having a huge effect in this country. our nation's debt $17 trillion. >> i want to hear a balanced budget. if we can do it in the states, it can be done nationwide, also. >> entitle lment reform is something that young people are going to want to see. >> raise the social security age, medicare/retirement ages. >> a plan called the penny plan.

if we cut one penny out of every dollar the government spends, just one penny, we could reduce our did he haeficit and have a budget within three years. >> we are poise d to pass a piee of legislation in indiana that would make our corporate tax rate the second lowest in the country. that's a conservative policy, a conservative idea that undoubtedly will create jobs. >> i would like to see the republican party address those issues, folks that are suffering from paycheck to paycheck, the jobholder, not so much the job creator. >> we can do all sorts of things to cut taxes and everything, but, lack, when the family unit breaks down, when communities break down, you know, people aren't going to do well. the marriage revolution would be a very positive thing and it's not -- to me i don't see it as a le left/right thing at all. >> i'd like to see them say what we're seeing tons of movement on marijuana legalization in the states. let's make that part of the

platform. >> no is yosurveillance, no government interference on our personal lives. >> it's incumbent on conservatives, republicans, to take the lead in reforming mandatory minimums which was a bipartisan fit of madness on drugs and other issues. >> a lot of people are reluctant to accept gay marriage and i think they are going to have to get over it. the majority of america clearly has moved in that direction. >> my number one candidate or nominee for 2016 is scott walker. >> marco rubio. >> ben carson is the only candidate who can beat hillary clinton, the only candidate the g op field who can get 17% of the black vote. >> i'm looking for a governor or someone with executive experien experience. >> scott walker is my favorite. >> i voted for huckabee. >> rand paul always gives a good speech. if he wins the nomination, he would definitely work very hard for him. >> i like rand paul best because he is from my hometown in texas. >> i'm supporting rand paul.

he and the liberty people are taking over the republican party. it's not going to be the republican party that we're used to seeing. >> all right. for more on what went down there at cpac, msnbc contributor perry bacon jr., politics editor at thegrio.com. we have an msnbc contributor josh barrow, a contributor with forbes, kerry sheffield. we found out her brother was one of the people included in that video saying the party should evolve on gay marriage. perry, i'll start with you since you put this together. a bunch of interesting quotes. i like the guy who says he has the math figured out. they get exactly 17% of the black vote and beat hillary clinton. there's your formula for winning in 2016. putting that aside, i wonder if you could tell us we've been talking since 2012 about the republican party put out its you a topsy after that election and how they have to change, how they have to broaden their appeal to win national

elections. were you hearing anything at this conference? i mean, it's hinted at, but some of the things that's a new consensus that might be emerging on the right that might be different from what we have been seeing and hearing from the conservative movement for the last five years? >> we heard a lot of different ideas. the two things i was struck by was there was a criminal justice panel that rick perry and grover norquist are both on. and a lot of talk about mandatory minimums. someone talked about marijuana, decripp decriminalization. those issues were new, i thought. there's a little push there. the second thing i thought from both the people we talked to were grassroots and if you think about the wave of gay marriage rulings in the country in favor of that, i thought this congressman had a the lot more criticism of activist judges or talked about traditional marriage. that issue was not discussed very much. i thought it's interesting can the republicans move toward a more libertarian view on that?

talked about religious liberty more, banning gay marriage less. those are the two things, and of course the other thing is lots of talk about fiscal issues. everyone talked about fiscal issues very much. very little to talk about the ukraine, our big issue in the news this week. no -- very little foreign policy at cpac. >> we had george allen, steve forbes, the list of people who have won cpac and gone nowhere. and ron paul, we learned to dismiss the ron paul victories because his supporters were outside the republican party but they could come to events like this, pack them and make noise. rand paul is a safier political figure than his fae. he's been a lot more strategic in how he's approached this. i wonder how representative you think -- how representative you think cpac is of the conservative movement at-large and does rand paul's showing in the straw poll mean more than ron paul's victories the last couple of years? >> that's the big question. if you look historically mitt

romney won in '07 to '09 and then '10 to '11. he so romney did end up getting the nomination, so you could say that is sort of a bellwether. the paul name, i think the jury is still out whether rand paul's brand of let's fight the drones, whether this is relevant to the base. i think it's still a big question mark. >> and, josh, just watching this from afar, did you hear anything different, anything like, wow, this conservative movement has changed or is in the process of changing in some meaningful way? >> not really but cpac isn't the venue i would expect to hear it out of. it is a pep rally for conservatives. i was on a panel there a few years ago and it's a lot of college students and retirees who are the older attendees tend to be conservative and he very movement oriented, aren't going to be the sort of people who are enthusiastic to modernize or strategically figure out how to get the party to 50% plus one.

the college students have an emphasis to libertarianism. i think you'll see a nominee in the party as you almost always do no comes out of the establishment wing whether that's scott walker or paul ryan or 0 jeb bush but cpac is not going to be the basis. >> there was one positive thing and that was the women at cpac this year. women were strongly represented, and we had younger women so people like garcia, women of color, she's running for congress in new hampshire. she spoke. erica herald, she's african-american, running for congress in i willinois. there are other panels with women. i think women were very well represented, which is positive. >> and we'll pick it up in one second. i have to fit a break in here and i want to tease on the other size the straw poll was interesting because they polled 26 candidates. they also polled some issues. there were some interesting results there. we'll talk about those when we come back. impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain,

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so i just want to the get these quick poll numbers in.

they asked on this ballot at cpac should marijuana be legalized? 41% said yes for recreational. 21% for medicinal. 31% saying it should remain illegal. 52% saying it's time for america to stand up for america's allies and defend themselves. 75% disapprove of the nsa monitoring of phone calls. the estimate was half of the people voting were between 18-25. that might be getting to that younger libertarianism josh was talking about. perry, before the break you wanted to get in. go ahead. what were you going to say? >> one thing about the straw poll results worth thinking about, marco rubio finished in second with 23%. he almost won. he's way, way behind. i think he's finishing seventh now and that is a sign that if -- chris christie declined. marco rubio has really declined in the last year and that's all about immigration, of course. >> marco rubio, there was a

story this week about how he sees his path back by being the hawkish alternative to rand paul and foreign policy. when you see a sta tistic like this it's how much traction can anyone get. >> chris christie has been fighting the same card. the big fight was on foreign policy. i think with rub quo, his problem is he hasn't been able to pick a position and stick with it. it's not like he made immigration reform supporters very happy because he realized he'd gotten out too far and tried to calibrate his position. i think the more likely establishment candidates are scott walker. he needs to finish his rae elect and then focus on the national race. but i agree rubio is not in a good position. >> carrie, 20 seconds. >> something i found concerning about this and a blogger pointed it out. the panel on minority outreach tumble weeds going across the room. don't get the me wrong, i love

cpac, i spent my 18th birthday at cpac, i became a woman in a legal sense at cpac, when you see it's totally tumble weeds, when these are the demographics to be reaching out to, that's concerning. >> i appreciate that. perry bacon jr., thank you for helping us with that video. the conservative rhetoric carrie sheffield for coming in. is there a possibility chris christie could come out of all of this with his political future fully intact? we'll look at it. my hygienist told me that less tartar means less scraping. so i'm going pro. [ male announcer ] new crest tartar protection rinse. the only rinse that helps prevent tartar build-up and cavities. a little swishing. less scraping.

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back though no distress signal was received. it went missing on its flight from kuala lumpur to beijing almost two days ago now. the airline is saying this morning that the window on expecting good news seems to be closing. >> we have communication to the family members. after more than 30 hours without any contact with the aircraft, we believe the family members should prepare themselves for the worst. >> now one u.s. navy ship and one u.s. aircraft are assisting in the efforts. the three americans are among the 239 people who were onboard that aircraft. the team of federal u.s. safety experts is also en route to asia to be ready to assist in the investigation. that team includes accident investigators from the ntsb, the national transportation safety board, and technical experts from the faa and boeing. we'll have more uptats from msnbc on this developing story throughout the morning. but let's turn now to a

story big news nationally for many months now. one that you are very familiar with if you are regular viewer of this program. if you've been following our coverage of chris christie and the scandal and allegations that have sprouted up around him, maybe you've been asking yourself what we've been asking ourselves, just how much damage will all of this do to christie's political standing, his long-term hopes to run for president in 2016? his shorter term desire to be chairman of the republican governors association, even his basic ability to continue functioning day-to-day as new jersey's governor? we thought we would approach this from a slightly different angle this morning. we're used to thinking about this story as if christie is free falling politically with no path to redemption in site. but what if the damage isn't actually that severe? and what if it doesn't get much worse than this are for the governor? look at it this way, we know christie enjoyed astronomical approval ratings and popularity as governor from the moment

hurricane sandy hit in october of 2012 all the way through his 2013 re-election campaign which went with 61% of the vote right up until the moment of bridget kelly's infamous time for some traffic problems for ft. lee e-mail surfaced. we know the minute that came out and undercut christie's absolute insistence that the george washington bridge traffic jam couldn't possibly have been some kind of petty vengeance scheme involving his own appointees, the minute christie's months of mockery of the story blew up in his face and he held that infamous or famous two had been hour press conference in early january, that almost literally at that moment all of that popularity he gained and sustained from sandy vanished. you can see it there on your screen. here's the thing. it's now been exactly two months since the press conference, since christie fired bridget kelly, made some very clear, very absolute statements about what he says was his total lack of thknowledge of the true natu of the lane closures.

it's been almost two months since dawn zimmer appeared on this show to accuse senior members of christie's administration of linking her city's sandy funds to her approval of a major development project represented by the law firm of one of christie's closest allies. charges they have repeatedly denied. his favorability in new jersey, well, it's still way down from where it was in thepr pro-sandy glory days. scandal or no scandal a 55% approval rating in a deeply blue state is really nothing to sniff at. and there was a little more good news for christie. asked if they would change their votes from last november's election if they knew then what they know now about christie and the scandal and the allegations, 87% of voters said they would still be with him. just 6% said they would have switched to his opponent. this came the same week a federal audit said the administration hadn't acted

improperly when it awarded a no-bid contract. the former mississippi governor and top d.c. lobbyist who has been publicly defending christie during this scandal, the contract has been something opponents have been using to attack him. the state had, quote, complied with applicable federal and state procurement standards. christie held another town hall meeting this week, his third since the scandal and allegations exploded. again, not a single question asked of him about the bridge lane closure or zimmer's accusations. is this because the events have been held in republican-friendly areas or are. >> sign that as christie is happy to claim, the public doesn't care nearly as much about the scandal as we in the press assume they do? is obviously no one can argue there has been no damage to christie from all of this and that no one in had the general public doesn't care.

there are still ominous signs for christie outside of his home state. on the national stage. he was seen as one of the favorites for the 2016 republ republican nomination. but a poll this week found of all the likely g 0 op candidate more republicans said they would not support him in their primaries than any other canned at that time. christie's standing against hillary clinton in head-to-head polling has taken a significant hit. christie did receive at least a decent reception at the cpac this week playing up conservative views he shied away from addressing in new jersey, perhaps most noticeably on abortion, bashed obama, and the reaction wasn't electric but it wasn't hostile either. john mccain said christie is still, quote, a very viable candidate for 2016. you have to admit that even after the scandal, even after the allegations and the skrcruty he's endured, there is a path out of this mess for chris christie, a way that he can

emerge not unscathed, not the unbruised, but also not buried politically. right now when it comes to the christie scandal and allegations we're in a holding pattern. the state legislative committee investigating the lane closures it going to court this tuesday to try to compel both can kelly and stepien to comply with subpoenas. kelly and stepien are refusing on fifth amendment grounds. zimmer has met with federal prosecutors and turned over documents. fbi agents have interviewed others in hoboken. we learned in the past week thanks to lawyers fighting those subpoena subpoenas from the state legislative committee federal agents have also tried to make contact with kelly and stepien. each of their lawyers say they believe their clients are, quote, at the very least subjects of a federal investigation. of course there's the matter of wildstein whose lawyer has asserted that evidence exists that christie knew the lane closures as they took place who

has made it clear his client wants to cut a deal. if he has immunity from the relevant entities he'll talk. that's what wildstein's lawyer is saying. there are a the lot of balls in the air here. a lot we still don't know. a lot that is still to play out. so we figure we'd look at the possibility that christie is able to emerge from all of this with the political viability intact. what would have to happen for that to happen? what would have to be true? what do you need to believe right now if you believe that whatever further revelations there are in the scandal christie will make it out alive politically? new jersey assemblyman, who is also now a candidate for congress, msnbc contributor, a professor at baruch college, brian murphy, a longtime jersey reporter and now director of the center for history, and are author of the new book "machine made." republ republican new jersey

senatewoman, the committee looking into those lane closures. so packed a lot in that intro, thanks for joining us, by the way. what i thought we would do is go through a number of the questions that have been raised from the documents released from the allegations raised by the mayor of hoboken and just sort of talk around, dissect them a little bit. what from christie's standpoint has to be true, what do you have to believe if he's going to be okay? for example, i'll start with this one. this is from the text messages and e-mails that david wildstein provided to the committee back now two months ago that really set this all off. it was an exchange between wildstein and kelly on monday, august 5. you remember the infamous time for some traffic e-mail went out on august 13. this is the e-mail that suggests kelly and wildstein are trying to arrange a meeting between port authority chairman david samson, his name has come up a

lot, and governor christie. and wildstein, the command was only turn over documents that are relative to the lane closur closures. so in turk this over, wildstein is strongly hinting, is strongly suggesting that this attempted meeting or this possible meeting that may have taken place between the governor and david samson is related to the closure. one thing you have to believe is either this meeting didn't take place, there was no -- this is a red herring, there was no christie/samson meeting, or the meeting took place and a week before the time for l some traffic problems e-mail went out from bridget kelly, the subject never came up at all. this is one of the great mysteries in all of this. >> sitting on the committee and actu actually reviewing a lot of these documents, it's very difficult to put a lot of what we have received into any sort of context because what you're talking is dumps of thousands of pages of documents that aren't

put in order necessarily by date. we have multiple copies of things. and so merely having something like that be provided to us i don't believe is indicative of anything in and of itself. if we had had an opportunity to actually interview some of these people, and that's not going to occur because of the fifth amendment arguments that have been made, it's very difficult to tie that together. >> you're sitting on this committee. here is an example. we have wildstein/kelly texts. kelly is fighting, turning over anything to this committee. possibly if she did turn over documents to the committee we would get a lot more context to this exchange and we might learn if there was a meeting between the governor and david samson. do you want her to be releasing these documents? are you glad the committee is taking her to court to try to -- >> as a member of the committee, i think it's important that we get the full picture, that we investigate and try to

understand what occurred. do i think that there's a likely scenario that we're going to be sitting there at the same time next year still discussing, you know, what could have been in the e-mails, what could have been in bill stepien's e-mails i think is plausible. i think this is a legal issue that is going to continue for kuwait a long period of time. but as committee members, we had to at least go out and attempt to get the information so that we could try to understand why this occurred and how this occurred. >> the spontaneity is there. whenever you send a text message and text or e-mail, a lot of times you don't think through the whole thing. so what goes through the mind comes up. that's why trying to read between the lines i think it's difficult. we need to get that information as a scientist, i like to collect more data. and i think if bridget kelly comes forward with the documents and stepien comes forward with

the documents, i think if governor christie to the rival candidate on the national level, he had to come out clean. he has to tell us what he knows and what he does not the know. i think that's the most important thing. people are dying to know -- we want to put an end to this, to make sure that the people have proper transparency. >> and he has been -- i mean, he could not have been more clear in his public statement on january 9. i knew nothing. i had no clue until january 8 when that bridget kelly e-mail came out, which brings me to another question that hangs over this. this was an e-mail forwarded from patrick foye, the executive director of the port authority. he's the guy that ended the lane closures on september 13. and he fired off this e-mail that called them hasty, ill-advised, said they violated federal and state law.

we have from bill baroni's e-mails that were turned over that that he e-mail from patrick foye on the morning of september 13 was forwarded just hours l e later and marked urgent to a woman named regina egea, the authorities director for chris christie. places her in the governor's office, she is currently his pick if his current chief of staff leaves to become attorney general, she's the pick to replace his current chief of staff. she is very close to chris christie. that gets to the question of how does regina egee yeah ga get an like that and chris christie doesn't find out? >> christie's viability both as a governor of new jersey and how he can continue to govern and then he at the national level people are learning more about the port authority of new york and new jersey these days than they ever thought they would. this is an institution founded in the 1920s to be an apolitical bi-state model of cooperation.

i'm not sure that the average republican voter is really going to pay close attention to the specific details. i think the bigger picture is what matters. and if governor christie a year from now is able to say with all of these investigations nobody has been able to lay a glove on me, then he is politically viable. >> and that begs the question with -- we have a few more to go through. we have to squeeze a break in here. he has put himself in this position where i knew nothing before january 8. so these are sort of the points of vulnerability where it's possible if not plausible that as we learn more that answer -- that statement from can chris christie could be undercut and then there would be tremendous political. we've always been on the forefront of innovation. when the world called for speed... ♪ ...when the world called for stealth... ♪ ...intelligence... endurance... affordability...

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i had no knowledge or

involvement in this issue, in its planning or its execution. and i am stunned by the abject stupidity that was shown here. >> so, again, that is chris christie's bottom line on this and that is if that story holds up, then i agree. i think he can get out of this politically relatively intact f. that story is swrund cut in any way, that absolute statement on this, then the implications could be considerable. the potential what we have seen from the revelations that have come out that the potential weak spots in that absolute statement, here is another one to bring up, and this is from september 12, the third day of the closures. and this is from christina rena who worked under bridget kelly in the governor's office and what happened that day

apparently her deputy, evan ridley, you could see in her note here, writing to bridget kelly explaining how this happened that mayor sokolich from ft. lee had been trying to get through the administration. we had seen in other documents that they had no interest, that bridget kelly did not want to talk to him at all. he called from a phone number they didn't recognize. he talks to sokolich about the closures and then cold christina renna and she immediately fires off this almost apologetic e-mail explaining how he got through to bridget kelly. these are people in the governor's office. you have to believe this was an operation limited to knowledge of the nature of this was limited to like those three people in the governor's office and no one else in this governor's office had an inkling of it or if they can did no one told the governor that they could be operating out of his office like that and he wouldn't

know. >> the thing is a white board exists, which lists the various indicators there are that people in the governor's office knew about this and that the problem with the press conference is that you have to believe there are a lot of coincidences and there are a lot of things. you have to believe there are a lot of coincidences and that the office has managed a very sort of loose way to buy into the story that christie simply didn't know about this especially when we know from that initial e-mails that week giving sokolich radio silence that the chain of custody of that question is baroni asking wildstein, say to go wildstein, sokolich called our office sort of saying what do we do? and david wildstein reaching out to bridget kelly and saying this call was made and she writes, did he write back? did he call back? and wildstein says, no.

and brimgt bridget kelly says thank you. we don't know the motive. that's why we keep fixating on the story. it's a gonzo-ish kind of story and we'd like to know the answer to this. we don't see infrastructure used in this way. trying to figure out why -- why it is that operation is being run out of trenton and how it's possible that kelly can know about it in an 0 office that isn't really physically set up you for people to not know about things. >> just putting into context we were talking about within two months of an election the gubernatorial election with over 70 municipalities in bergen cou county alone, dealing with on a day-to-day basis with mayors

calling, aftermath of sandy, there are a lot of logical reasons to look at this and accept that, yes, governor christie did not know about this. and thus far we're several months into the investigation the. we've received documents from over 15 people. there are thousands upon thousands of pages of documents that have been put forth. there's nothing in just looking objectively that ties them to it other than tangential things. >> the key is -- part of the key is this tuesday. the documents that everybody is really interested in are bridgette can kelly, bill stepien documents, which they are fighting. so let's see if and when we get to look at those, but i think to broaden it out a little bit here, i think people looking at this less granularly have a hard time -- here is an example. in early december, bill baroni

and david wildstein both announced, both decided they are going to resign from the port authority. this comes at the same time that pat foye and other officials testify in trenton that this was not -- there was no traffic study. this whole story there had been a traffic study, there was no traffic study. they testify. this comes two months after "the wall street journal" reports on the memo from foye. there have been months of reporting now and at this point hearings in trenton that really suggest something nefarious is going on here, and christie's story is not for another month did did i even suspect it. >> i think more importantly just going back to, you know, talking about him emerging, from the poll that just came out, from the rutgers poll, the average person whether or not they believe governor christie or not, they still support him. and this is two months in. so is he going to emerge from

this absent some sort of smoking gun that nobody has seen thus far? yes. >> he'll never be the rock star that he was in october. that's setting the bar pretty high. >> right. >> but he's never going to have, i don't think, in new jersey and throughout the kcountry, he's never going to have that special status that he had when he seemed to be on his way to this tremendous victory just a few months ago. >> i think as an engineer i offer a solution, he is conducting internal study, review of what happened. maybe he can release some of that information that will come out clean. he hadding nothing to do with it. what's there to fear? >> the internal review, that's been the whole story unto itself. we've run out of time here. terry, holly, thank you for joining us. we have sharpened our number two pencils. we're not afraid to use them. oue was born to help people clean. but there are some places even mr. clean

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supposedly fake news speaks the truth. >> it is s.a.t. time again, and i'm sure a lot of high school students are out there watching my show right now just trying to relax and get their minds off of studying. well, i want to say stop relaxing. it's the most important test of your life! >> the most important test of your life is about to undergo some big changes. maybe once the mysterious organization administers the s.a.t.s revamping the test, it won't be so abstruse. do you know what it means? students need to know in the verbal portion of the s.a.t. that answer and many others after this. [ sponge ] welcome back to "you make a choice."

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when was the last time you were asked about your s.a.t. score? in a job interview, a parent/teacher krns? does the 2013 standard tax reform ask for your social security number and then your math and verbal score? unless you've recently applied

to college you may not remember your s.a.t. score, all i know is i got 200 points for putting my name on it and it was all downhill from there. your s.a.t. score is essentially one thing that is used -- the important thing used for getting into college, it is how we have measured high school students for a long, long time. people who created the test back in 1926 wanted a way of fact touring out what students learned in high school entirely so they came up with something that was set to measure scholastic aptitude. instead whether a student was cut out for the rigors of higher education but you criticisms that by straying so far from what students actually tackle in high school, the test isn't an accurate measure of what those teenagers can actually do or how they will do once they get to college. colleges and universities say over the years they have been seeing a disparity between what the s.a.t. score predicts for a

student's future higher education and that student's grade point average once they start taking college level classes. the test has been shown to measure is wealth. it is an excellent predictor how much money their parents make. the higher the family income, the higher a student's score. all sections of the test. there have been attempts to overhaul the tests in the past. in 2006, an essay section was added, open to krcriticism, too because you can make stuff up on it, provide false evidence, you can use words out of context to support your argument. the graders are only allowed to lack at the writing not the accuracy. russ perlman discussing the way the test is administered says it didn't the matter what you put on that part of the test. quote, you can tell them the war 1812 began in 1945. just use words like plethora or myriad and maybe a quote are

interest ftr, you are well on your way to scoring much higher. so that's one reason this week the college board, the company that administers the test, announced it is overhauling the s.a.t. there will be no more essay, or optional. a 2,400 overall score test is back to being 1,600 overall points, that's the best score. it is optional. the other reason is this. they are changing the test to make it more reflective and relevant to a college ready curriculum. an attempt to measure how well students are doing in high school instead of predicting how well they might do in college. less aptitude and more i've got this. here now to help me discuss whether the new test is likely to do a better job than the old test, the s.a.t. worth having at all, the publisher at the pri e princeton review, the standardized prep test company, a professor at baruch college, the former dean of admission at bates college, one of the growing number of test optional schools, the education

correspondent with nbc news. rehema, i will start with you. we spelled out some of the broad changes for people who, you know, took the s.a.t.s maybe ten years ago or so or five years ago. what next year will be so different about this it test? >> it won't come next year but in 2016. so for today's freshmen in high school they'll be the first class that will be taking this test. you pointed out what some of the differences will be. number one, going from a 2,400 score town to 1,600. the essay is optional. calculators currently used on the test, they will have unlimited use going forward. >> what's the reason? i remember the big thing we had to get this calculator, it was very important for the test. the reason for taking the calculator out, does it measure some different skill without the calculator? >> i'm not really sure.

i asked david coleman that question because in a 21st century with a bunch of digital natives why not let them use calculators in the math test? he said they want to test more of the depth and the breadth so they will have an opportunity to put that to the test coming up in 2016. >> robert, this is your business. >> people ready to take this test, what do you think of the changes they're making? >> a couple of things. we have long been critical of the college boards specifically around the s.a.t. we heard it from david cullman this week. it is not predictive of college success, it is not a good test. but when we start to dig down into why, we think think about the market share issues between the act and the s.a.t. there are lots of things to unravel than just the question of the s.a.t. being a predictor of college success. >> you say the s.a.t. and the act, so when i was growing up

they say if you're from iowa you take the act, you're from the northeast you take the s.a.t. apparently the act has been surging in its popularity. it surpassed that more people took the act than the s.a.t. last year. what are they doing the s.a.t. isn't doing and is it a better predictor? >> you're right. the myth was everybody in the middle of the country took the act and everybody on the left or the right took the s.a.t. the truth is any college is going to accept you based on your act or s.a.t. scores. when we start to think about it five years ago the number of test takers taking the s.a.t. was around 725, 000, 730,000 students. the s.a.t. has been trumped as the biggest test in the land. 1.7 million for the act. when we start to think about it, the s.a.t., the s.a.t. looks and

feels like a high school exam. instructions are very straightforward. it's tied to what a student would likely be learning in high school. s substantive things like the subject, things students will see in the classroom. the s.a.t. is how well you take the s.a.t. not a predictor of college success. >> and if it looks more -- if it's designed to be more like the curriculum students would have encountered and to give you a sense of how well the students mastered that material, it raises the question why not look at grade point average? that's the most direct measure of how they handle the material they encounter. bill, you've done some research. you come from a school that made it optional for students to submit, to even submit s.a.t. scores. but what have you found in terms of the difference between college performance of students who took the s.a.t.s versus didn't take the s.a.t.s?

>> we did a national study of 33 institutions, private, public, minority serving, arts, 123,000 students and found that there was no difference whatsoever on either cumulative gpa in college or graduation rates between the students who submitted tests and the students who did not. we also found that those students who were lakely to not submit their tests one way or the other, more like ly to be first generation college students, minority students of all groups, slightly more likely to be women, pell grant recipients, low income students, and students with learning differences like dyslexia. the s.a.t. or act is a poor way to think you're going to measure a youngster who has a learning difference. some of them are brilliant. absolutely brilliant. >> that's why i think we showed the chart in the interim,

there's a direct correlation between family income and an s.a.t. score and that gets into the question of prepping for the test. if your family can afford it and, hey, junior is going to college, then they're going to shell out money for, what, coaching on this test, hey, look, they tend to do it this way. this is the best guessing strategy. there's a whole element of that to this, too, isn't there? >> a more boutique industry in your business that people can get much more personalized one-on-one instruction on how to gain this test. the problem from my standpoint as someone in a classroom is the high s.a.t. scores don't correlate at all into classroom performance. and the biggest -- the thing that's alarming about the test changes, in my mind, the biggest challenge my students have is baruch college, the most diverse college campuses in the country, my students need help with writing. the s.a.t. has eliminated the writing requirement.

we want to have more attention on documents and reading and interpretation. we're going to dump altar cane, obscure vocabulary. one was the declaration of independence. just looking at this, the voice of justice -- one sentence in the declaration. there's at least one s.a.t. a six-word sentence. you cannot -- these are not things that exist this in a vacuum. >> i remember when i was in high school my -- we had to choose a foreign language to take and i was encouraged to take latin because the roots and the s.a.t. words -- taking latin would improve your s.a.t. scores. that was the reason for taking latin. latin a very valuable language to me now. i can maybe understand half the mass at a church. there was news this week about financial aid that the college

board is going to be offering. i know,> rehema, you talked abot that. we'll talk about how s.a.t. and standardized tests, how much do they mean and what ideally should the admissions process look like? your eyes depend on a unique set of nutrients. [ male announcer ] that's why there's ocuvite. ocuvite helps replenish key eye nutrients. ocuvite has a unique formula that's just not found in any leading multivitamin. help protect your eye health with ocuvite. in the history of mankind. has one march. meant. so. much.

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there are many kids in this country who perform extremely well on s.a.t.s today but do not claim the opportunities they have earned. 50% to 70% of the poorest kids who do the best s.a.t. do not apply to a single collective college though they could go to any one of them. >> david coalman, the president of the college boards speaking to nbc's rehema ellis this week. financial aid changes to the s.a.t. that are on tap for 2016. and rehema, i wonder if you tell us what that means exactly in terms of opening of access to the test to more people and if that will make a significant difference. >> we hope it will. they're going to provide for a

kid struggling just to get one day to the next, a lot of students in this country are considered low income and they don't eat well. we're talking about kids in some instances who don't have food. and whether or not they have the money to pay for a college application. so the college board is saying we're going to provide some fee waivers to make that possible and hopefully encourage that student to go on and gain access hopefully to the college of their choice. >> so what -- i know it's optional, the test, but in general let's say it's a selective college, it still requires the s.a.t. or the act, i've always wondered how much is that generally being weighted when the admissions people sit down and they look through you your college grades, the recommendation letters from teachers, your extracurricular activities, all of these things, how much does the s.a.t., how decisive is that in determining whether somebody gets into

school right now? >> the answers are probably, as the s.a.t. score goes up or down from that college is averages. but the real issue is, does the test predict what it's supposed to predict which is performance in the college. and that's precisely what we found. it does not predict. so i think increasingly with now hundreds of colleges with optional testing, there will be more and more people saying, like the kid on the side of the road, the emperor doesn't have any clothes on. >> do you see a role, any role, any national standardized test for college admissions or you don't need it at all? each school should come up with its own criteria? >> the data in the studies done suggests that the national criteria we should be using are four years of high school grades. the high schoolkoochool gpa, my belief is that the human mind is simply so complex, fluid, multifaceted that trying to design a single national exam to

measure performance or capability or promise is a monumental trip up a blind alley. >> i will say no. >> if we went to that world, no s.a.t.s, no acts at all, just high school grades, you guys would lose some business on that, i would imagine. >> we start the to think about it, we're much more than just an s.a.t. company, team for the at, every other test under the sun as well plus providing so much free information for students as well as books and so on. what i think about is that we've been doing the survey a little over 1,500 four-year colleges, the first thing they're looking at is high school gpa and classes, second, standardized tests. we're thinking about two-thirds of the four-year colleges alone with still looking at s.a.t. and act scores for admission and many of them combining gpa and s. s.a.t. scores to give out scholarships. it's a poor test, absolutely,

but it is a test of weight. >> brian, i heard you start to mention during the break and it made me wonder, colleges seem to care about the annual u.s. news rankings, right, who is who's number one, number two. i went to number 150 or whatever. but s.a.t. scores, the average s.a.t. score of the incoming class is a huge part of the that formula. so the college here has an incentive, maybe, to keep using the s.a.t.s as a way of playing that game, of raising their average s.a.t. score, raising their ranking and being able to be in a quote, more prestigious school. >> and selectivity, and selectivity is based on the number of people you get, the number of applications you get and the number of people you turn down. but i think the structures are really important here. and looking at what the s.a.t. -- looking at what the college board has done, right? you have david coleman, head of the college board, is also one of the person who's been in

charge of designing the common core. and now we find out the new test is going to be more reflective of what's in the common core and this strikes me, looking at it as an economic historian, this is a way to begin to build a safer market place for yourself, right? is you get -- you have your test match up with the curriculum that's being used in high schools, as a backdoor way to make sure that your testing is going to be the one that students will gravitate toward when it comes time to apply for college. that's why you announce this at south by southwest, you announce it at a marketing conference. >> but at the same time, we are asking students to be tested on things that they are learning in school. and i grant you, there's some concern about the fact that david cohen was one of the architects of the common core. 46 states have adopted the common core, even though it's come under fire about whether or not it's going to go forward smoothly. but we are asking students to look at things that are more relevant to their lives in terms of how they are tested. so whether he had a marketing

incentive to do this or whether or not there's some real interest in testing what students are going to learn, i guess that is what's up for debate. >> actually, we are out of time on this one. but when we come back, what we should know for the week ahead. and also, the definition of that word, abstruse, if you haven't looked it up and you care, we'll give it to you, that's ahead. so we're up early. up late. thinking up game-changing ideas, like this: dozens of tax free zones across new york state. move here. expand here. or start a new business here... and pay no taxes for 10 years. with new jobs, new opportunities and a new tax free plan. there's only one way for your business to go. up. find out if your business can qualify at start-upny.com you get 4 lines onw at&t's network...ilies including unlimited talk unlimited text ...and 10 gigs of data to share. 10 gigs? 10 gigs. all for $160 dollars a month. you know, i think our family really needed this.

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all righty. it's that time when we find out what our guests think we should know. start with you, bill. >> to young people and their families, your high school grades matter and they matter a lot, but that's encouraging news. you can control that. the tests, it turns out, are not very good predictors. i hope we will find a way to get rid of them. >> okay, rahema? >> april 16th, the college board is going to be announcing more details about the redesigned s.a.t.s, so people will be paying attention to that. and also, i think people should start thinking of those who are going to college, financial aid, looking for different sources to provide the money that they need to not only go to school, but to

pay for it. >> okay. >> if you're a junior or a senior and you're taking the a.c.t. right now, there's no penalty for wrong answers, so guess. on the s.a.t., if you can eliminate two of the answer choices, guess as well. and if you're a senior in high school right now waiting for your letters to come back in the mail, hold until may 1st national decision deadline, you'll not only get your admission letter and financial as well. >> one of the things people should be aware of, when you send your kids off to college, three quarters of college instruction in this country takes place, is administered by an adjunct who makes on average $20,000 a year. so parents can be a big -- the parent who is pay those tuition checks can have an influence on who colleges hire and who your kids are going to get instructed by. >> and i know that abstruse means, difficult to understand or obscure. and i know that because i'm

looking at the monitor and it has it on there. i want to thank william, nbc news's rahema ellis, robert franek, thanks for getting up. and thank you for joining us. coming up next is "mhp," and on the program today, the housing market appears to be back, but could it collapse all over again? ari melber is in for melissa today and he is up next. ♪

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to read and consider carefully before investing. [ male announcer ] nothing says, "you're my #1 copilot," like a milk-bone biscuit. ♪ say it with milk-bone. this morning, my question, is wall street finally investing in distressed communities or risking another housing fail? plus, an important vote in the middle of the night in west virginia. and harvard's hip hop fellow comes, of course, to nerdland. but first, nearly two days later and the search for an airplane and answers continues. and good morning. i am ari melber in for melissa harris-perry. it has been nearly 48 hours since the last contact was made with mays