carl fisk at the wall again. ♪ manic monday well, if you're still struggling to wake up, we have sprung ahead. happy spring ahead day. three days into the search, still more questions than clues about what happened to a jumbo jet flying from kuala lumpur to beijing. still questions. it's hard to judging from the meeting on the potomac the cpac just had. stay tuned to hear why. plus, the tdr 50 heads west in the third week of our big year-long focus to the centennial state. democrats aren't just dominating denver. find out how demographics and domestic debates have carried colorado from red to blue in record time. good morning from washington. it's monday, march 10th, 2014. this is "the daily rundown."

i'm chuck todd. we've got a lot of breaking news to cover. so we're going to start with that first. here is the latest out of what we know or don't know of what's being called an unprecedented aviation mystery. it's malaysian air flight 370. it simply vanished from radar with 239 passengers and crew members on board early saturday. and investigators still do not have any substantial clues. a massive international search effort is under way as we speak, covering some 50 nautical miles. moments ago, malaysian investigators announced they're expanding the area to now cover a section of land areas along the coast of malaysia and the "uss kidd" has now joined the search. and there are brand-new reports of possible debris south of what malaysian authorities call saigon and what we call ho chi minh city. ships are on their way now to inspect that report, but so far, nothing. >> unfortunately, ladies and

gentlemen, we have not found anything that appears to be objects from the aircraft. >> now, flight 370 had been cruising for at least an hour and had reached 35,000 feet when it lost contact with air traffic control. malaysian authorities are increasing the search area to include land along their coast, and there's been some disappointing news in the last hour. the vietnamese search crews that found an oil slick in a bit -- and a bit of debris, now say tests show neither of the clues were connected to the missing plane. both the oil and debris that were found off the southern tip of vietnam -- that's the area the plane would have crossed on its way north from kuala lumpur to beijing, which is why folks were so helpful about those signs. another investigation is under way into a pair of flight 370 passengers. an austrian and italian were listed on the manifest but were

never actually on the plane. both had reported their passports stolen while in thailand. interpol is trying to figure out who used those stolen passports to board the flight. now, there are hundreds of family members in beijing and kuala lumpur who are expressing frustration, because they're not getting any updates or accommodations. kier simmons reports more on the mood in malaysia. >> reporter: good morning, chuck. yeah, pretty tense here, to be honest. every few hours, government officials come into this room, a few hundred journalists cram in to hear the latest news, and each time the officials have to say that what's happened so far really is a mystery. there have been sightings of what appear to be debris from the aircraft, and in each case those have turned out to be false. so far, i say again, a complete mystery as to what happened to this aircraft. chuck? >> thanks, kier.

now, we're learning more from u.s. intelligence on what might have happened to the aircraft. nbc's tom co-sti costello joinsh that part of the story. what do we know about terrorist chatter? and what does u.s. intelligence know? >> reporter: there is none, that's the bottom line. authorities on this side of the ocean are just as stumped as authorities in malaysia, because they don't have any suggestion whatsoever right now that this is a terrorist act. there is nothing within the intel community to suggest that. and we just don't have any precedent for a 777 plane, for that matter any major airliner, going missing for three days without any sign of it whatsoever. so there are a couple of theories here. now, let me underscore, these are just theories. nobody at this point believes realistically that this plane is still intact somewhere. that just isn't going to happen. so here are the theories. number one, there may have been

some sort of catastrophic mechanical failure with the electronics and the engine on board, or the -- literally, the guts of the plane. that's highly unlikely, say most experts, given the advanced nature of this 777 and all of the redundancies built into it. number two, you may have had a structural failure. in other words, did you have a wing suddenly rip off, or a portion rip off, or a portion of the fuselage suddenly rip open? if that happened, you would have literally eight seconds or so inside the aircraft before everybody became incapacitated, because they're at 35,000 feet with little oxygen. if that happened, you might see a scenario in which the plane could continue flying on its own, and then nosedive into the jungle or into the water somewhere. but here's the question. okay, in that theory, where's the radar tape to suggest it kept flying? >> right. >> reporter: and number four -- or the third idea, pardon me. the third idea would be that there was some sort of explosion on board.

again, ripped a hole in the fuselage, incapacitated everybody, and the plane then perhaps either continued flying or that it went down. but we have no debris. if this plane hit the water, that's like hitting concrete. you would have debris scattered over a wide field. by now, the theory goes, in this heavily trafficked area of the ocean, somebody would have seen something. >> all right, tom, but the air france plane from five years ago that was the plane -- forgive me for not having the flight number. >> reporter: 447. >> from reo to france, it took two years to find that plane. >> reporter: no, it didn't. they had debris on the ocean surface within 36 hours. >> it took them two years to find the rest of plane? >> reporter: exactly. at the bottom of the ocean. and the french spent a lot of money, put a submarine down to find the plane and bring it up. they had those pieces you see right there, they had those within about 24, 36 hours. and i would say that was a harder find, because it was in the middle of the atlantic ocean. this is a smaller stretch of a

body of water. the gulf of thailand, the strait between malaysia and vietnam, heavily trafficked, much more heavily trafficked than that stretch of the atlantic ocean they found air france in. what's similar here? what's similar is there was very little in the way of radar data on this flight, 370. and there was nothing in the radar data on 447. they had to piece together what was the last-known position and do mathematical calculations. >> all right. tom costello, quite the mystery. and as we found out, the big news of the morning is both the oil slick and the supposed debris that were found off the coast of vietnam have no connection to this plane. anyway, tom costello, thank you very much. >> reporter: okay. >> i'm joined by a former managing director of the ntsb, peter goals. mr. goals, good morning to you, sir. >> good morning. >> all right. you've heard everything. at this point, what's your educated guess? and again, we know it's a guess. we know that there's a lot of

data we don't know. what do you think could have happened? >> well, i mean, it's simply inexplicable, but the one thing i want to underscore is exactly how difficult it is to find an aircraft in open ocean. i mean, we -- i was involved in the twa 800 accident that was only nine miles off the coast of long island, and it took us days to find the wreckage on that. in this case, as tom costello mentioned, there is very minimal radar data. they are starting from scratch, and it is very hard to find even wreckage, let alone floating material in open ocean. it's just going to take weeks and months. >> i assume the way an investigation works, everybody wants to have their set of operating theories, multiple ones, and you have multiple teams pursuing evidence, whether it backs up the theories or not. so what would you be -- what

would be the various theories you would be putting out there for investigators to either debunk or to prove? >> well, you'd be doing a number of things now. first, you would have, know, a radar team scouring all of the available radar data, asking the vietnamese whether any of their radar units could have inadvertently, or could have been tracking this aircraft. you would have a maintenance team poring over the maintenance records of the aircraft to see whether there had been any indications that there had been structural problems in the past. had there been major repairs done to the -- to the wings? had there been any kind of fuselage damage? what about the engines? they would be tracking the entire history of the engines from the day they left the manufacturer. and they would be looking at the personnel records of the pilots, of the flight crew, to see whether there was any indications that any of the -- the flight crew had problems, had serious financial issues.

because there have been -- there have been cases where pilots have -- have driven the plane into the ocean as an act of suicide. so you would explore absolutely every potential cause that you could without having any actual evidence to drive it. >> well, there had been one report -- you brought up potential previous damage to a plane, or previous repairs. there had been a report that this plane had lost a tip of its wing a couple of years ago. how important is that to trying to piece together this riddle? >> listen, planes get banged periodically on -- in airports, or they have events on takeoff. if the repair is done properly, it should have had none -- no effect whatsoever. this 777 has got a virtually unblemished record in flight. it is a real workhorse. it is a solid aircraft. and that's part of the reason

that this is so perplexing. >> all right. peter goelz, former managing director of the ntsb. thank you for your perspective and insight this morning. >> thank you. we'll, of course, bring you any new clues and developments on the search for flight 370 as they happen. it's now, of course, dark on the other side of the world. so there may not be much to report as of now. this morning, though, "first read" is ahead, as russia tightens its grip on crimea, and the battle over ukraine for next week's vote to decide crimea's future. here at home, republicans are casting votes on their own future. find out why the conventional wisdom about the gop primary might not be so wise. and if you think you're tired from springing forward this weekend, a handful of senators are prepping for an all-nighter tonight, to draw attention to the issue of climate change. the lineup of democratic senators is fairly predictable. what's interesting is the democratic senators that are not going to be participating in this all-night event.

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now to my "first reads" of the morning. if the crisis in ukraine didn't feel like a cold war flashback before, it certainly does now. the white house has announced that president obama is inviting the ukrainian prime minister to the white house wednesday. it's an attempt to show solidarity in the face of russian aggression. on thursday, the prime minister will address the united nations security council. meanwhile, moscow isn't leaving anything to chance. more russian troops poured into crimea over the weekend, as the region prepares for sunday's public vote on a referendum to secede from ukraine and join the russian federation, despite the

objections of the u.s. and its allies. >> if there is a referendum and it votes to move crimea out of ukraine and to russia, we won't recognize it, and most of the world won't either. >> nbc's jim maceda has more on the situation from the point of view of moscow. >> reporter: hey, chuck. well, six days now before the crimean referendum, and russian and pro-russian forces are further tightening their hold over the peninsula. ukrainian sources saying there are now 20,000 to 30,000 russian troops -- that's two to three divisions -- on crimea, and controlling at least 11 ukrainian border posts. even the stretch between crimea and ukraine proper has become a de facto border with reports of fresh minefields between the two sides. and with no international observers allowed in and putin showing no signs of flexibility, despite all of the diplomacy and threats of sanctions against russia, it looks pretty clear that crimea, a week from now,

will be russian and putin's calculus, and in the minds of the ethnic russian crimeans, even though kiev and washington still say they will not even recognize the vote. chuck? it's a mess. back to you. >> that's for sure. the question remains, no matter what happens with the vote, how do you get putin to withdraw from crimea? former defense secretary bob gates says he thinks it would be impossible. >> i do not believe we're going -- that crimea will slip out of russia's hands. >> you think crimea's gone? >> i do. >> meanwhile, president obama was in florida over the weekend, vacationing with his family in key largo. but he did take time to work the phones. the president spoke with the leaders of seven nations, including britain, france, germany, italy, and the baltic states of latvia, lithuania, and gastonia. james baker expressed concern about where things appear

headed. >> i mean, i look at this as a cold war light. and we don't need to go any further down that path. having said that, i don't think anybody knows what russia's intentions are from here on out. >> and that seems to be what has the administration handcuffed a bit. former vice president dick cheney, he believes that the united states is right to use diplomatic and economic pressure against russia. but he says those aren't the only tools at america's disposal. >> reinstate the ballistic missile defense program in poland. he cares a lot about that. conduct joint military exercises with the nato friends close to the russian border. offer up equipment and training to the ukrainian military. take steps that will guarantee and convey the notion, especially to our friends in europe, that we keep our commitments. so far, that's in doubt. >> joining me now, former u.s. ambassador, christopher hill, currently the dean of the joseph corporal school at the

university of denver. ambassador hill, good morning to you, sir. >> good morning. >> well, let me start with the bob gates pronouncement, that crimea is gone. do you agree with him? >> well, i think at this point, i can understand why he's saying that. many people are saying that. i mean, the russians have moved in these divisions of troops. it's very clear that they intend to keep crimea out of ukraine. the degree to which crimea goes into russia -- that is, what's the fine print of the sovereignty issue? what's the fine print of how they manage the referendum? i think still to be determined. for now, it's clear that crimea won't be in ukraine. and so, i think a lot will depend on how the obama administration manages the allies, and so far, they're doing a good job in that regard. >> what should be the focus now? i talked to some folks that say the number-one concern -- you know, there's a lot of people playing -- talking about the cold war. but really, the number-one

near-term concern is making sure ukraine doesn't slip into civil war. so what does the united states -- is every action they take at this point have to be focused on making sure that doesn't happen? >> i think that's a big problem. that's a big concern. you know, ukraine has always been a sort of house divided against itself. in addition to that, you have generational issues where younger people definitely want to scoot on over to the west. you know, their parents and grandparents are less interested in that. there's a lot of concerns here. one concern, of course, is whether russia will stop at ukraine -- at crimea, or whether they will move into, you know, incite people in eastern ukraine. >> how concerned are you about a civil war? how concerned are you about it? >> i am concerned about the level of tension in a lot of these major cities. the fact that the ukrainian government doesn't have a lot to show for its -- for its time --

very brief time in office. so, yes, i would put myself in the category of someone concerned that ukraine could, indeed, break apart and it could be a bigger break than just -- just crimea. i'm also concerned -- if i can -- to say that the -- i think nato does have a role here in reassuring poland, reassuring the baltic states. i mean, we are to some extent, whether we like it or not, returning to some sort of, you know, cold war -- >> right. >> -- cold war division. and i think we've got to be up to the task. and that's not just political and economic. that's also security. >> well, what would you be telling the president to do right now? you heard former vice president cheney. essentially, outlined a series of -- wouldn't they be symbolic moves, but sometimes symbolism, particularly, matters to the countries close to the russian border? do you think the president ought to take those suggestions? >> i think some of those suggestions do need to be taken.

i'm skeptical of the missile defense issue. that has been really studied to death, and i'm not sure that crimea really changes the calculation of whether we really want that system. very expensive system, by the way, in poland. >> right. >> but certainly the idea of thickening up our nato commitments and nato relations in poland, i think, are important. i'd be a little skeptical of this idea that we should be rushing in with an equip-and-train program in ukraine. i don't think that will have any deterrent effect whatsoever on russia, and could actually have the opposite effect. i'm not sure that's particularly thought through. >> all right. let's talk about the idea of punishing putin, that if he gets crimea, that it comes at a real cost to him, potentially financially. obviously, the united states can only do -- only do some -- some -- have some impact economically. europe could have more. but take a listen to mike rogers, michigan republican, about his skepticism of economic sanctions.

>> any instability in that region causes economic instability, and certainly will impact europe. if it impacts europe's economy, it will impact the united states' economy. >> so that seems to be the rock and the hard place that the western world is in, particularly europe, which is to punish russia and to punish putin financially, punishes themselves. >> i think there's a lot of concern there. i mean, after all, we've spent the last two decades trying to integrate russia into the international economy in a way that the soviet union never really was. i think the good news is we succeeded. the bad news is -- >> we succeeded. [ laughter ] >> yes, the sanctions against russia could end up against us. you know, russia's a serious player. they certainly would retaliate and retaliate in a way that i think the michigan congressman has a point. that said -- that said, we can't let them get away with this without paying a cost.

and while i don't think sanctions at this point will deter them from what they want to do -- that is, could be coercive in terms of their policy -- i think it is necessary to up the costs against russia with the understanding that at the end of the day we need to understand that peak is no substitute for policy, and we need to think about what our long-term interests are, and it's not just registering anger. i might mention one other thing we have to be very serious about the assistance packages for ukraine and make sure the money really does arrive in a timely basis. >> yeah. >> i'm kind of worried that already we're seeing futzing around in the u.s. congress about the question about the role of the imf and these other cosmic issues that our congress seems to get involved in, rather than the urgent issue of the day, which is helping the ukrainian economy. >> well, perhaps the ukrainian prime minister coming to the united states might speed that along. former ambassador chris hill, a man who is no stranger to hot

spots around the world, thanks very much. >> thank you. let's take a quick look at the first number in today's "databank." we're spreading them out throughout the show. 21. how many days candidates in colorado have left to get their names on the 2014 ballot. the state's filing deadline is march 31st. why do i care so much about colorado? you mow why. more on that swing state that will test the power of social issues against the historic resistance on gun restrictions. it's all coming up as the "tdr 50" this week kicks off in colorado. here's today's trivia question. how far above sea level is the colorado state capitol building? be the first person to tweet the right answer and you'll get the on-air shoutout. much more on "the daily rundown" coming up. it's a growing trend in business: do more with less with less energy. hp is helping ups do just that.

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big "dive" into colorado, 2016. we have more monday databank here. 21. that's the percentage of drivers, 21%, in -- according to the colorado department of transportation survey who report using marijuana before getting behind the wheel. dwh. driving while high. today, the state kicks off the new drive high get a dui ad campaign. it's aimed at men aged 21 to 34, the demographic with the highest number of the duhs, if you want to call them that. take a look at the ad. [ glass breaking ] huh...fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. yep, everybody knows that. well, did you know the ancient pyramids were actually a mistake?

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[ male announcer ] the all-new 2014 lexus is. (knochello? hey, i notice your car is not in the driveway. yeah. it's in the shop. it's going to cost me an arm and a leg. that's hilarious. sorry. you shoulda taken it to midas. get some of that midas touch. they tell you what stuff needs fixing, and what stuff can wait. next time i'm going to midas. high-five! arg! i did not see that coming. trust the midas touch. for brakes, tires, oil, everything. (whistling) well, the "tdr 50" kicks off this week in colorado, and in today's "deep dive," we'll look at a tate state that shows the power of social issues on behalf

of the democratic party of late, and it may define the limits of the democratic party's power in this state. if you look at all of the states that president obama has won twice, colorado's the one that seemed to come out of nowhere. at least if you're the republican party. just 10 years ago, colorado in a republican governor and a pair of republican senators. the gop had lost just one presidential election in the previous 40 years. but when colorado moved, it moved in a hurry, and unlike a state like virginia, where we saw hints of that shift coming as early as 2001, we didn't see that in colorado. it was in 2004 the democrats seized control in both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since 1974. and within ten years, they had won three senate elections, two gubernatorial elections, and voted for president obama twice. so what happened? why the change? a closer look shows it hinges on demographics, and the social issues we talked about earlier. first, the demographics. denver had always been the biggest democratic stronghold in the state. but back in 2004, republicans

held onto a number of surrounding counties. jefferson county, for instance, golden, colorado, west of denver, went to president bush by five points in 2004. arapahoe county went to bush. but by 2004, the tide had turned. he won arapahoe by 10, a 14-point swing in eight years. it's no coincidence that between 2000 and 2010 the hispanic population exploded in the denver suburbs, increase of 50%. statewide, from 17% to over 21% in 2002. of course, the split among hispanic voters, which used to be a little more even, is no longer as even between the two parties. it's not just the racial makeup of the state. colorado has consistently been one of the most highly educated states in the u.s. but up until the last decade, it was one of the few that still

voted republican. today, every state that made the top-ten list of most -- with the most college educated adults living in those states is a blue state. colorado is one of those ten. today, democrats hold sway in and around denver, around pueblo to the south and around i-70, which runs east to west, essentially across the center of the state. it may look like they have lesterer to, but remember -- less territory, but remember, it's still the bulk of the state. other areas that vote republican tend to be in the less populated areas to the east and to the west, really colorado, the 4th congressional district, remains somewhat of a stronghold. as a whole, the state leans mostly democratic, and that's where the social issues now come in. in some states, you might have one or two of the major issues in play. it seems like colorado has all of them. take same-sex marriage. governor hickenlooper came out in favor of it last week. there's a personhood amendment

that could limit abortions on the ballot in the fall. no doubt, democrats might be more excited about that than republicans. the approval of recreational marijuana continues to make the state a case study for the entire legalization movement. and there's guns. it remains a top issue across colorado. and for years, cultural issues has been the democratic party's trump card by -- and not touching the gun issue. if you go back to senator michael bennett's big win in 2010, he used issues like abortion to paint his opponent as too conservative, and won women by double digits. but the caveat for democrats, stay away from the gun issue, and they did for the most part until last year. months after the newtown shootings and less than a year after aurora, governor hi hickenlooper pushed through the toughest laws. two democratic senators lost seats. now the question is whether the governor has opened the door for republicans to get one of the critical cultural issues back on

their side as a potential wedge issue that helps them win elections. bottom line, colorado matters big time in the future of both parties, and we'll see it play out in this midterm. with me now political ed outer and colorado native, vaughn verbers. mr. verbers, colorado, a state that was a republican stronghold is too tough -- too tough of a term to use in the '90s, but reliable republican. >> it was reliable, and it mirrored what was going on in the nation. that's what colorado is. it's a bellwether of bellwethers to say -- to use a cliche. in the 1970s, you had very liberal senators, tim worth, gary hart representing that state. it was part of that movement away from watergate. in the 1980s, got very conservative with bill armstrong, hank brown, and those kinds -- >> rising evangelicals, james dobson, focus on the family, out of colorado springs, evangelical movement taking root there. >> right. and as you noted, nobody saw the

change coming towards -- back towards the democratic base. but it was there. it was always there. it was people who were tired of, you know, coloradoans are very independent. very independent-minded. they're not reliably democratic or republican. they sort of go to the middle. that's where you can always find the middle. >> it always strikes me that, are they going to the middle or is it a reactive electorate? when one party goes too far, then they move to -- move to the other side, as you describe, the liberal senators of the '70s that may have moved them to the right, and then all of a sudden, the evangelicals took over the republican party in colorado, and that nominated two conservative nomineeing and moved the -- >> i don't think it's reactive. i think it's reflective. i think it reflects where the national mood is. if you look at colorado and you look at national polling, you will find a pretty good sync within that. you know, to the issue of gay marriage.

colorado now moving towards that pro side of that. the issue of guns, though, still remains very toxic for democrats in that state. >> you think guns could be how republicans win -- win stuff -- >> i think guns -- i think the interesting thing will be to watch how the marijuana legalization plays going forward. a recent poll in "the denver post" shows while people continue to be very supportive, a majority supportive of that, they still have misgivings about how it was portraying their state. and so, there is a tension there, and how that plays going forward could be interesting. >> all right, ron ververs, it will be fun to be a native of your state. with more perspective, i'm joined by wellington webb, three-term mayor of denver, colorado. mayor webb, good morning to you, sir. >> good morning. how are you this morning? >> i'm okay. so let's start with when you were mayor of denver, denver was a democratic spot in a republican state. when did you see the change

coming, and what are your -- what is your advice for democrats to prevent it from slipping back? >> well, i think as vaughn said, that we also had democrats elected, and he mentioned many of those, tim wirth, gary hart, pat schroder. those were all liberal democrats. and we could see from denver's population being more than 67% democratic that we saw the shift coming, and most of the people moving in tended to be more liberal. in terms of the younger people coming in. and there are many of those. colorado's a blue state, and i think you already mentioned that with both senators, as well as the mayor of denver, is also a democrat. so i think that the republicans continue to support and push individuals that are far to the right, their senate candidates, like those opposing mark udall, tend to be so conservative that they don't reflect the values of colorado. >> now, there is that

independent streak, vaughn was talking about it. and it sort of -- and skepticism of government intrusion. democrats have used that to their advantage in some social issues, like abortion, marriage, marijuana. but on the issue of guns and health care, that same sort of independent streak, that skepticism of government, could work against the democrats. how do democrats inoculate themselves, particularly udall on health care? >> i think that's easy. if you look at the udall race, you have mr. gardner who's the same side of the same coin as ken buck. he supported the personhood amendment, which has been rejected twice. that works against his candidacy and works for udall. he'll lose a significant amount of the women's vote. he voted against the dream act. michael bennett carried the latino community 81-19. so if he voted against the dream act, he'll lose a large percentage of hispanics. he voted against don't ask, don't tell for the military. if that be the case, he loses a

large percent of the lgbt community, that's another segment. he voted for the paul ryan bhuj et, and that also slashed medicare as well as he wanted to privatize social security. you lose a large part of the seniors. and with that kind of effort, i don't see how you can get to the middle and to the majority of coloradoans. he voted against the debt ceiling and he voted to shut down the government. >> i have to ask you about guns. >> "the national journal" said he's the tenth-most-conservative senator in the senate -- or in the house, rather. as it relates to guns, if you put guns on one hand and the other nine issues on other hand, it clearly works in our favor. >> on the gun issue, though, how would you tell democrats to deal with it? >> well, the way we deal with it, the same way i dealt with it as mayor, we're a hunter state, we're a state that believes in hunting, a state that believes in the second amendment, we're a state that believes in outdoors and wildlife and fishing. but we also, given the tragedies we've had with columbine and also with aurora shooting, that the legislature and the governor

all sense, as does most of the public, there needs to be some regulation of guns in the state. >> do you believe as the suburbs go, so goes colorado? if you win the suburbs, you win the state? >> well, the answer to that is, yes. if you look at the loss of women, the loss of seniors, the loss of gay and lesbians, and the loss of hispanics, and then, also, in this case, the votes against federal aid disaster, which would support many people in colorado. it raises the question of whose interests are these individuals supporting? and so long as republicans tend to be with the right wing and the tea party, that does not represent colorado. and then the last piece, in this case, and congressman gardner, he did not even take a position on the secession of ten counties that wanted to secede from -- secede from the state. i'm glad he wasn't around 1861.

>> and most were in his congressional district, actually. >> which means he's a good congressman, but not good for the state. >> all right. wellington webb, former mayor of denver. good to hear from you, sir. >> all right. good to see you. >> thank you for coming on. now for more numbers in today's show's "databank." 88, the percentage of iowa democrats in a new poll, who want hillary clinton to run for president. look at that. 88% of iowans. they don't mind the coronation. half of all iowans think it's a good idea if hillary clinton runs for president again. the tdr colorado soup of the day, the tdr 50, too many soups being served up at denver's soup for the soul event to name all of them, but this one caught our eye --

back now for more of "first

read." the 2016 heart of the story from the weekend. the conservative political action conference wrapped up on saturday, and for the second year in a row, kentucky senator rand paul proved that the conference of conservative activists has become his home field. he won saturday's straw poll going away, 31%, picking up three times as many votes as texas senator ted cruz. and it left florida's marco rubio, last year's second-place finishes, in seventh place at just 6%. you couldn't even find, by the way, jeb bush on this board. also, this weekend, cruz fired the first volley in what may become a new cruz/paul showdown for grassroots conservatives, and it is likely to play out over the next two years. he drew a sharp distinction with paul on foreign policy. >> i'm a big fan of rand paul. he and i are good friends. i don't agree with him on foreign policy. i think u.s. leadership is critical in the world. and i agree with him that we should be very reluctant to deploy military force abroad,

but i think there is a vital role, just as ronald reagan did -- >> paul defended himself. he compared his views to those of the first president bush. henry kissinger. and ronald reagan. >> i think those who would try to argue that somehow i'm different than the mainstream republican opinion are people who want to take advantage for their own personal political game. i'm a great believer in ronald reagan. i'm a great believer in a strong national defense. >> right now, though, name i.d. is helping congressman paul ryan, at least, look like the leading candidate in iowa. a new "des moines register" poll tested folks who ran in some form in 2012 and found ryan seems to be the most popular candidate to run again on the republican side, over other -- three other former presidential candidates. so joining me now on the state of where 2016 is for the republicans, "washington post" chief correspondent dan balls, author of "the take." so what do we make of rand paul? you know, there's the -- it was

funny, somebody -- ihink it was from huffington post or salon, tell us you great wisdom people, who's the front-runner this week, you, you, and he used sort of front-runner this week? used a word you can't use on television, but there are a lot of people who say rand paul is a front-runner. you say everybody should tap on the brakes. >> there is no front-runner at this point. we've said it repeatedly. >> that's not satisfying, dan, come on. >> it's not satisfying, but it's truth. you can pick out any one person at any one time saying they have a niche of this party if they can build out from that, they can become a formidable candidate, but nobody's been able to do that yet. as you said, the cpac audience is a rand paul audience, as it was a ron paul audience in the past. >> the cpac thing has meant nothing in the past. >> cpac is interesting for what you hear from the candidates. >> not from the straw pollers. >> of course, not. >> i was struck by a couple of

things. one of them was that we think of cpac as kind of a red meat weekend and there was certainly some of that there, but i thought there was an attempt to be a little more thoughtful and a little less kind of hit the base. >> only mitch mcconnell, he was the only one and he has his own issues, theatrics with the rifle, come out with a gun, nobody's going to boo a man with a gun. instead of looking at it as one person, there's collective people -- rand paul is kind of like a pace car. just like the way christie and jeb bush are a pace car for the establishment. there are different guys representing pace cars, fair to say? >> rand paul is interesting because he's saying interesting things that go against the grain of what you think of as the norm of a republican presidential candidate, and the question for him is, can he turn that into something that's mainstream or does he continue to have a

strong following but not enough to become a nominee? >> but the establishment, that was the other story of cpac, the establishment, nowhere to be found. >> although the response to chris christie could have been much worse, given what we know about the audience and chris christie's position. it was decent, polite to warm in various ways. >> the enemy of their enemy, though, is their friend. >> that's not an establishment audience. let's take that as a given. >> dan balls. there is no front-runner, good for you. trivia time, it's the colorado state capitol building that sits exactly one mile above sea mile. exactly, 5,280 feet. congratulations to today's winner, g 74, or gdog74. we'll be right back. for the little mishaps you feel use neosporin to help you heal. it kills germs so you heal four days faster. neosporin. use with band-aid brand bandages.

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it's a big, big week in politics. while it's important to never overstate the influence of a single special election, tomorrow's race in florida is going to tell us a lot about which strategy is working best on both parties. the contest to replace the late bill young fits alex sink against david jolly. here's why it matters, a sink win would mean the second race on a health care campaign. a jolly win would single the democrats have big possibilities. sink leads in terms of finances. jolly has the edge in early voting, but maybe not a big enough edge. early last week we heard steve israel tell me the district was very tough terrain, but late last week republicans were the ones complaining. reports surfaced national republicans were increasingly frustrated with jolly's campaign. republicans called it a keystone cops operation, so looks like

democrats may quietly be feeling better than republicans at this point, but losing this would signal big problems and the democrats would be running for the hills if alex sink can't pull this off. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." chris jansing is next. we have much more, the malaysian plane search continues, ukraine crisis, all of it, including greg meeks, all right after the break. i'm meteorologist bill karins with your business travel forecast. travel looks interesting this week. we do have a winter storm moving across the country, but thankfully a lot of the southern areas and middle of the countries will deal with rain. mostly the northern half of the country gets snow. northwest, up through montana, nice mild, quiet day before the storm arrives in chicago today. enjoy. ♪

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