pair and no children. stick around, here comes chuck todd with "the daily rundown." well, it's a jolly republican win that gives democrats a sinking feeling about the midterms. a brand-new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll has more warnings for democrats in a less friendly environment than that house race in florida. also this morning, a major trust deficit puts the cia director in the hot seat with top senate democrats. but the roots of this rift stretch back far longer than just the beginning of the obama administration. plus, in today's tdr 50, our colorado focus this week, what does a still-simmers secession sentiment in rock-hard red parts of the state tell us about the unfolding urban-rural divide across the country? good morning from washington. it's wednesday, march 12th, 2014.

this is "the daily rundown." chuck todd. let's get to my "first reads" of the morning. i feel like we've had the first game of the nfl season, the midterms if you want to call it, after last night's special election. republican david jolly narrowly won a special election in florida's 13th district. it gives republicans a big victory and puts up a red flag for democrats hoping a strong candidate and campaign can overcome a difficult national environment. jolly beat democrat alex sink by just 3,500 votes, winning 48.5% to sink's 46.6%. the libertarian candidate pulled in nearly 5% of the vote. >> obviously, you've heard the results and they were not the results that any of us wanted. i have spoken to david jolly and congratulated him on a hard-fought campaign. >> jolly's going to have to run again for the st. pete area

discorredi district in the fall. it will be tougher for him with the turnout. he becomes the 64th member of the congress sent to the house by a special election. jolly, a lobbyist and former aide to congressman young, was introduced by bob barker and walked to the podium to the theme song of "the price is right." i kid you not. >> -- help control the pet population. have your pets spayed or neutered. two words that i have waited months to speak, congressman david jolly! come on down! ♪ >> folks, i got very good news tonight. no more commercials. i am honored and i am humbled to have received the support of my community and to have the

opportunity to serve as your next representative from florida's 13th congressional distri district. >> it's a shot in the arm for the republicans who made it a referendum on the health care law and the president's leadership. republicans had the advantage in the national environment, and last night, the environment won. if a b-minus candidate running a c-plus campaign who happens to be a lobbyist can beat a top democratic recruit, it has to scare democrats running in g competitive areas. democrats arguing that it doesn't reflect the general election landscape democrats will face in november and a low turnout special election favors republicans. here's the thing. welcome to the midterms. it's the king of low turnout elections. democrats should be worried, because of the reasons they lost this race. it's how they lost it. they lost it on national issues

and lost it on outside money. advantages republicans will have for the next eight months. these republican groups that spent millions in tv ads in florida, american crossroads, u.s. chamber of commerce, american action network, will be pouring cash into races around the country. the koch brothers didn't spend that much money in this district. they sent aides, but they didn't do tv advertising. don't forget, they're in a bunch of other races. democrats have to figure out how to answer one of the lines of attack that played out in florida. the obama administration's proposal to cut the medicare advantage program is a major worry among older voters and republicans successfully conflated it to medicare. it's not pretty when you look at the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. president's job rating has dropped to its lowest point ever, 41%. and ahead of the midterm elections, where success depends on getting out the base, the president's approval rating

among democrats has fallen to an all-time low, up 74%. for the first five years in office, the number among democrats was never below 80. he scores below 40% approval among white voters and men, and is particularly weak in the south. that's not a surprise. but, also, now, the midwest. that is. and that's where democrats are defending some vulnerable senate seats as well. 33% of voters tell us they intend to cast their vote this fall to send a signal of opposition to the president. we saw similar numbers with george bush ahead of the gop's 2006 midterm defeats. and 48% of voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate who's a solid supporter of the obama administration, compared with 26% who say they're more likely to vote for that candidate. overall, republicans hold a one-point edge over democrats and which party voters would prefer. one point may not sound like much, but in 2010, the gop advantage was just two points. historically, when they have that kind of advantage, any advantage in the generic, it

translates to bigger margins than the actual result. to get a better understanding of why the president is not being able to recover, look at these other numbers. this is the atmospherics of the country. 65% of those we surveyed believe the nation is on the wrong track. 26% say we're headed in the right direction. 71% say the federal government is not working well or stagnant. 57% believe the country is still in an economic recession. and just 35% tells us the health care law is a good idea. nearly half the country call it a bad idea. why the gop hold this edge, let's not ignore this fact. the public dissatisfaction with all of washington's political players could spell trouble for republicans, too, particularly incumbents. the republican party remains more unpopular than the president, 27% view the gop positively compared with 45% who see the party negatively. by comparison, 35% view it positively, 38% negatively.

this isn't 2010 for republicans. 55% of republicans tell us they have a high interest in the upcoming midterms compared to 43% of democrats. but at this time in 2010, ahead of the 2010 political tsunami for the republican party, republicans had a 16-point advantage on that interest in the election. 60% for republicans compared to 44% there. still, as we heard from voters in florida, and these folks who cast ballot for sink, the president and national democrats have some work to do to win back the confidence of those voters. >> what do you think of the job the federal government is doing? >> half-ass. i'm sorry. i mean they're doing, but not enough. i don't think it's enough. >> what do you think about obamacare specifically? >> i don't have it. i really haven't researched it much. what i'm hearing, it's not doing too well. people are really not pleased

with it. i'm voting for a change. i'm voting for a change. the economy right now is not doing well. you have people housing, foreclosure, it's ridiculous all the way around. >> just get something through the house, get something through the senate. that's kind of where he's starting to fail. >> what is your view of how the federal government is working today? >> it doesn't seem like it's working at all. i hate to say it, but just like what i was saying before, get things moving. it seems like it's at a standstill. >> well, let's take a step back to last october. before alex sink even jumped into the race, a dccc was embracing her. as soon as she emerged, they said, a candidate like alex sink who has a strong record of solving problems would be a candidate, designated her for early operational and strategic support.

on christmas, a fund-raising report showed sink with more than $1 million in the bank, her opponent, david jolly, had less than $150,000. in late january, an internal dccc poll showed her leading by four points overall, had a double-digit lead among independent voters. the poll said sink shows strong crossover support and advantages among key voting blocs. but jolly's attacks, or more importantly, the outside groups' attacks, it wasn't enough to prevent the race tightening. steve israel downplayed her chances citing the double-digit advantage and pointing out special elections are exactly that, special. to discuss where things go from here, chairman of the dccc steve israel. congressman, good morning to you, sir. >> good morning. thanks for having me on. >> you got it. i know what you guys are saying about the makeup of the electorate in florida, 13, and that a lot shouldn't be read into it, but the fact of the matter is, there are a lot of democratic voters in the 13th

district of florida that didn't come out. and i assume the question you must have is, why? >> well, that's accurate, and there's a reason for that. look, it's not that we are saying this was an uphill battle for us. greg walden, chairman of the republican national campaign committee, also said several days ago this is a special election, and special elections do not represent the entire future. we knew from the beginning, and i said on your show, chuck, last week, that we started this race where the republicans had a 13-point advantage in turnout, because it's not a midterm election. it's not a regular election. it's a special election in a midterm year. and so, you and i are baseball fans. the deal is like this. you start a baseball game, 13 points behind, you claw back two runs behind, the good news is you got back 11 runs. the bad news is, we still lost by two, and we have some work to do. >> do you want alex sink to run again? >> oh, absolutely. she was an extraordinary candidate. >> is she committed to doing

that? >> -- i hope she will, because of this. this district will be competitive in november. you know, if there's any consolation prize in this loss, it is that there's not a single congressional district in america that is modelled like this, that is an r-plus 13 district where we are competing. so we still have an expansive battlefield. this district in a regular election, not a special election in the midterm, but even regular midterm election, will be in play. we feel good about our prospects here. and i hope that she does run again, because she did an extraordinary job. >> i'm curious about the poll, your reaction, which explains the environment alex sink was having. you have a lot of messaging being done against her onto issue of health care. how do you feel as if democrats -- how do you feel she handled the health care issue? and do you believe even in defeat that it's somehow a model for other democrats to deal with the health care issue? >> she handled it very effectively.

look, again, you start in a district with a 13-point lead in turnout for republicans. you get $5 million spent against you, trashing the affordable care act, and you come within two points? that shows that she was a great candidate, good message, and other competitive districts that are far more competitive than this one our messaging will work, the turnout models will be good. i came this morning and said the thunderstorms are coming to washington, you don't hide, you fight through it. >> i guess i keep coming back, i understand the way this special election was modelled. this is a district president obama carried twice, narrowly, a swing district in big elections. this means you didn't get democrats to come out and vote, and my guess is, why do you think -- why is it that you ended up with such a -- a model that was so out of whack, it means a bunch of democrats stayed home. why? >> you just said it.

you know, this is a special election. this is not, you know, a big election in a regular year. this isn't even a midterm. this was a march special election in a midterm election. so the fact of the matter is we started out 13 points behind in an off-year election, where republican voters are the most animated, and we got it to within two. i'm a mets fan. i never want to lose by two, and i'm sorry that we lost. it was disappointing. but the fact of the matter is we got it from 13 points behind to two points behind, and that makes us feel good about the prospects for this district and other districts in november. the final point on this, chuck, is this. this is, again, r-plus 13 district, not a single district in america up for grabs that is r-plus 13. so it's a much more competitive playing field in the on year. >> i would make a mets joke, but one of my bosses is a big mets fan, too. >> oh. >> so i would just be hearing about it all day anyway.

>> be careful. >> steve israel, new york democrat, chairman of the dccc, congressman, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> you got it. much more ahead on the jam-packed show today. we're going to hear from steve israel's republican counterpart greg walden. that'll be after the break. a "deep dive" into the new poll. plus, what's really at the root of the senate democratic fight with the cia director? meanwhile, look at this. snow is falling in detroit. oh. it's march. a couple of weeks from opening day. anyway, the temperature is expected to drop here in d.c. we'll have a 45-degree swing. there's warm moments expected at the white house today. president obama will be meeting with ukraine's prime minister, who's in town, meeting with a number of other top officials. this is about america showing a bunch of support for the new ukraine government. and, hopefully, before the temperatures drop. [ woman ] the day of my first presentation? i was 80% nervous to lead the meeting.

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well, as we were reporting all day yesterday, a major split between the cia director and senior senate democrats. this all came to a head tuesday morning when intelligence committee chairwoman dianne feinstein accused the agency, led by john brennan, of a potentially illegal and unconstitutional search of computers being used by senate intelligence staff. >> i have grave concerns that the cia search may well have violated the separation of powers, principles embodied in the united states constitution. including the speech and debate clause. it may have undermined the constitutional framework

essential to effective congressional oversight of intelligence activities or any other government function. >> before the morning was over, director brennan went on the record with our own andrea mitchell, denying any effort to hinder that senate investigation. >> i know there are a lot of claims out there that the cia has sought to prevent the ssci from doing its work, but that's not the case at all. >> this fissure has roots that date back to the bush administration. brennan is not just an old obama ally somehow only swept into the white house in 2008. he was a cia lifer working at a high level within the agency in the clinton white house years and during the george w. bush administration. and it's those bush years that are central to this whole issue. brennan oversaw secret prisons and some of the controversial interrogation and detention programs of those terror

suspects during that time. it was a practice that was widely slammed by congressional democrats. that piece of history has dogged brennan for nearly a decade. he became a close advisor to then senator obama during his march to the white house in 2008, but it was that connection to those interrogation programs that ended up preventing president obama from officially nominating brennan to the job he now holds today over at the cia. brennan instead during the first term became the president's chief counterterrorism advisor, became the key voice in the raid that killed osama bin laden, and helped conduct the drone war. when president obama won a second term, the administration decided that enough time had passed and that brennan would be confirmed by the senate this time, and he was. in a 20-13 hearing, brennan promised lawmakers they would get straight answers when he was in charge. >> if i am confirmed, a trust deficit between the committee

and cia would be wholly unacceptable to me, and i would make it my goal on day one of my tenure and every day thereafter to strengthen the trust between us. >> but trust may be out the door now. just look at the responses to feinstein's remarks and brennan's rebuttal yesterday from democrats. oregon democrat ron whieden, i'm extremely troubled that the cia leadership has not responded to questions. this is simply not acceptable in a democratly. -- democracy. and mark udall, up for re-election this year, had tougher words. >> i've lost confidence in director brennan, particularly because he won't acknowledge the misdeeds and misconduct of the cia. >> getting awfully close to seeing senators actually call for brennan to step down. now, this morning, nbc news is reporting that senator udall is putting a hold on the president's pick to be the cia's general counsel. right now, the white house is standing by director brennan,

but it's treading lightly on the details, while the department of justice investigates, or at least decides whether to investigate, senator feinstein's claims and director brennan's questions on whether senate staffers improperly took sensitive cia documents from a virginia office. the president confident that director brennan has been straightforward with him about his version of the events? >> the president has great confidence in director brennan -- >> on these events? >> i'm not privy to conversations with -- and i'm not getting into specific conversations. >> as for brennan, he's not making career moves unless he hears from the commander in chief. >> if it is proved that the cia did do this, would you feel that you had to step down? >> i am confident that the authorities will review this appropriately, and if i did something wrong, i will go to

the president and i will explain to him what i did and what the findings were. and he is the one who can ask me to stay or to go. >> here's the bottom line on this. there are a lot of senate democrats that simply don't trust brennan, and they think somehow his interests in this current investigation, about those bush interrogation techniques, and their fighting over what should be in the actual report itself, is somehow an attempt by brennan to whitewash. what is he whitewashing? the cia's role? his role? whatever it is, that's at the root of this. there are senate democrats who believe brennan is simply trying to whitewash history on this, and that is at the root of this problem, and a trust deficit that i don't know how it is healed. let's turn to new developments this morning in the search for the still missing malaysia airlines plane that disappeared early saturday morning. malaysian authorities are again expanding the search area, this time around where they say the plane may have been picked up on military radar. the plane was originally on a

course that took it out over the south china sea towards vietnam. it now appears it could have doubled back with a sharp left turn and headed towards the indian ocean. so the search zone now encompasses, ready for this? a 27,000-square-nautical-mile area, and there is still no sign of this flight anywhere. >> it's not something that is easy. we're looking at so many vessels and aircraft, so many countries to coordinate, in a vast area for us to search. and each time that passes, i fear that the search and rescue becomes just a search. but we will never give up hope. ♪

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week-long focus, tdr 50 focus, on the state of colorado. it's a state that's embraced a shift in favor of the democrats in recent yeebs, but not everybody has been happy about it, and last fall, some voters pushed a plan to break away from colorado entirely and try to form their own state. now, this is something that's actually more common than you may think. over the last decade alone, we've had voters in a number of states that have channeled their political frustrations by trying to cut ties with the local leaders, and usually upset by some growth of a metropolitan area. it's happened in at least a dozen states. look at this map. in the past ten years -- remember, these aren't movements to leave the country, just movements to start their own states, places known as west new york, northeast ohio, baja arizona. in california, there's a move to get on the november ballot a plan to split the state in six pieces, including the state of jefferson to the north, and a state belonging solely to silicon valley. in colorado, the dream of secession actually made it all the way to election day.

county commissioners frustrated with the state's democratic shift pitched a plan to break off from the rest of the state. the 51st state initiative went on the ballot in 11 counties last fall. the question was to pursue secession. six counties voted it down, but five approved it. the counties of phillips, yuma, cheyenne, washington, kit carson, all voted to form the state of northern colorado. it's easier said than done. both the u.s. congress and the president would have to approve, which hasn't happened since west virginia in 1863. it does show a growing sense of disconnectedness in the rural -- doesn't sit well in some parts of the state. neither do laws restricting gas drilling or limit rights for gun owners. some in the region claim the

renewable energy standards have sent electric costing soaring. >> but cannot be ignored there are many parts of colorado that are still struggling today. outside the front range, we have communities stricken with stagnant or in many cases declining economies. >> and that's a big part of the problem. people in the rural areas seem to be going in the opposite political direction, but also economic direction, as the folks in the denver area. while the state has shifted to democrats in the recent years, the five counties that back secession are overwhelmingly republican. look at this. they supported romney of nearly 56 points. that's not the percentage he got in the counties. that's the margin with which he carried those counties. nevertheless, statehouse speaker says the state is big enough for everyone. >> i can say one example after another from the work we've done over the past years to show that the pundits and partisans who

say colorado is a fractured state, split between left and right, rural and urban, are simply wrong. >> governor hickenlooper says the secession movement was actually a good thing, because it ultimately makes the state stronger. but while the movement has mostly faded over the last four months, colorado's political divide has not. curtis lee covers state politics for "the denver post." he covered this story closely. curtis, let me ask you here, the secession movement. how much of it is just simply driven by this growing divide between denver and the me megaopolis and the denver suburbs and rural colorado in. >> the rural divide, it goes back to last legislative session, and this so-called -- republicans have pushed this so-called war on rural colorado, as some of the things you mentioned in your setup piece, democrats really passed a number

of controversial pieces of legislation in the wake of the newtown shooting, democrats passed a wide-ranging package of gun-control bills as well as mandates on rural energy, mandates on electric cooperatives in rural parts of the state. and rieally, there's been this feeling in rural colorado, in some of the counties, they feel frontrange lawmakers, from fort collins to den verb, colorado springs, into pueblo, they aren't listening to them and aren't heeding their messages or really, you know, listening to what their interests are in those parts of the state. that's really pushed them to move toward the symbolic vote last november, really, to secede from the state. >> you know what's interesting is politically it used to be, when democrats won statewide in colorado, they had to not be from the denver area, and recently, the denver area, you can now win with a denver base, so there is this sort of automatic disconnect, even with

some of the lawmakers. governor hickenlooper said it was a good thing. how is he -- what has he done to sort of address this perception that there is an urban-rural divide that is punishing rural colorado? >> well, definitely, governor hickenlooper, he took a hit in the polls after passing the gun control laws and also granted a temporary reprieve for death row inmate out here in colorado. but he's really -- last september, colorado went through widespread floods in the rural counties, some of the counties that voted to secede from the state, and the governor secured millions of dollars in federal funds as well as state funds, has really been out in front of this in helping rural communities rebuild in the wake of these natural disasters. the state also endured widespread wildfires last year. and the governor's really, you know, pushed and been out there, you know, opening -- opening roads and bridges, helping business owners -- >> so throwing money at the problem? >> very much so. and actually, you know, being

out there and listening. i did a piece in december where the governor -- i mean, it seemed like every tweet or a lot of facebook posts that he put out there, he was out in rural colorado listening to rural coloradoans, and helping, you know, these communities rebuild. it was almost like a soft campaign rollout months after the september floods. i mean, he was definitely outside of the metro area and out in these counties spending extended amounts of time. >> well, it is interesting and it is something, frankly, that is impacting every state as there is the economies growing in the urban areas, but stagnating in rural america. curtis lee with the "denver post," thank you for coming on and explaining this. >> thanks, chuck. >> you got it. "deep dive" is next. it's our new poll. a lot more in it than just what we told you about. by the way, here's today's trivia question. how many different number districts did bill young represent during his 43 years in the u.s. house from florida? tweet fast. only the first person who

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in today's "deep dive," with the midterms eight months away, what is it that voters actually want in their representatives that they'll send to congress? we tested about two dozen different qualities to measure what will make voters more or less likely to support a congressional candidate. first, let's look at the most popular characteristics. the top two are really striking. 86% told us they'd be more likely to support a candidate who's willing to work with the other party and to compromise. 67% would be more likely to support someone committed to bringing federal dollars and projects to the local area. remember, folks, this is in an era of no compromise, and after a backlash in congress against pork barrel spending. moving on, another 67% would be more likely to vote for a

candidate who supports cutting federal spending. so, yes, we'll try to figure that out. folks want to bring home the bacon and cut spending. just cut spending in someone else's district. 58% would be more likely to support someone who supports raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10, and 36% would prefer a candidate who hasn't held a political office. for the least popular, don't be surprised if you see candidates try to pin these caughts on their opponents in attack ads over the next eight months. 69% said they'd be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports cutting social security and medicare when fits. 47% said they'd be less likely to support someone who believes america should be doing more to resolve conflicts around the world. 48% would be less likely to support a solid supporter of the obama administration. and 43% would be less likely to cast a ballot for somebody who calls themselves a tea party supporter. and 42% say being endorsed by

president obama makes that candidate less likely to get their vote. the qualities least divisive, an advocate for defense cuts, supporting fixes to the health care law, supporting same-sex marriage and being a critic of the obama administration. that's just a sample of the midterm poll. let's go deeper inside the numbers with our pollster, bill mcatear and fred yang. fred, the perfect congressional candidate is someone who never held office, promises to work with the other side, says bring home the bacon, and cutting spending somewhere else. >> no problem. >> can you find that candidate? >> in a democrat. >> it doesn't matter if they're a republican or democrat, as long as they have those characteristics. but what do the characteristics tell you? >> that fundamentally this is a country and electorate that believes we have big challenges and they're looking to washington, president and congress, to resolve problems. and i think, you know, our poll really showed that there's some tough numbers here for the

president, but a lot of what's driving it is their concerns about the country, the economy, and now overseas with russia-ukraine. there's a lot going on. there's a lot people are worried about. >> i want to get to that with obama. bill, i want to note to people the differences across the board, democrats and independents both among them the number-one issue was having a candidate that would compromise. that was number two among republicans. number one among republicans was cutting federal spending. number two among independents, federal spending. number two among democrats was raising the minimum wage. i keep looking here. minimum wage didn't make the republican positive list, did it? >> it's a modest positive, but it's nowhere near the top ten. it's clearly the president's focus. it's clearly an economic agenda that does unite democrats and independents. >> number three here on the independent list -- >> one thing you find, and guess what, that's why they're independents on minimum wage, on one or two other issues, independents are with democrats and on spending, actually even on the health care issue, in

terms of changing health care and getting rid of obamacare, they run with republicans. you can see why each party is emphasizing what they do, because it reinforces their own base and it creates that tug among independent voters. >> now, there's going to be a lot of things we'll dive into this poll politically. there is, to me, a larger story in this poll that a year from now we're going to say, boy, we saw that trend, and that is it's not controversial to be against defense spending, fred. at the same time, it is controversial if you want to get involved in conflicts overseas. this is a country where both parties want to be in retreat, and both parties seem to think that the pentagon isn't that big of a deal. >> and one of the questions we did in the poll about russia, ukraine, what the u.s. should do, that's one of the few questions in the poll in which the democrats and republicans both say we should let the e.u. take the lead on this. we don't want to be out in dpront. -- front. no, i think we are -- we're worried about things that happen overseas, especially for

countries like russia, but we're very inwardly focused. >> it is, the more connected we are around the world, we know more about what's going on, yet we'll be in this era, we'll look at the post-iraq era is an era of america turning inward. >> well, america works on long trends, and we've always had these periods where we get very involved in international, and americans say that's it, i'm exhausted, i'm tired. and this is a challenge for the american president, both in syria last august in 2013, and now in the ukraine and crimea. we have a president who's trying to get american resolve, and he's facing a very tired electorate. now, i think that's personally unstable and dangerous for the world. but that's what the polling tells us, and it tells us how difficult that will be as a challenge to our leadership to try to drag public opinion to support the efforts and our over thes around the world. >> all right. digging farther. president obama, fred, it seems when you look at trying to explain his 41%, and we know 41's a magic number, it seems like everything is at 41, from

the personal rating, economic, job approval, foreign policy overall. when you have 60%-plus saying that the country's headed in the wrong direction, 60% believe we're in a recession, nearly 80% believing the federal government is not working, is it any wonder, right? >> is it any wonder? i mean, you know, he -- the poll would suggest that he may be settling around the low to mid-40s. >> this is a floor. is it a new -- it's a new -- can it go lower? do you think it could get lower? >> well, i do not think so, because this poll, with him at 41% approval, had the president, for kexample, 74% approval with democrats. >> all-time low. >> and the polling i'm seeing in other places, that is, to me, that's definitely a floor for him. i do not think he will go much beyond where he is now. then the question -- the obvious question is, how far up can he go? >> right. >> well, any lower than this would be devastating for a

midterm -- >> it's already devastating. >> these -- one of the major elements was, i'm a strong supporter of the president, and it's a major 20, 25-point negative, and people say i don't want to vote for that candidate. that's what a midterm election is about. these numbers, we talked about it last november and december saying the president's numbers don't go up, it will be a very difficult year for democrats, and we're going to have a strong republican year. >> we have much more about the health care portion of our poll with our pollsters. that will be later. not this this show, but later tomorrow, and also on the web. nrcc chairman greg walden will be here. our colorado soup of the day is roasted corn and chicken chowder. that's what they're serving at elway's in downtown denver. we'll be right back.

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nothing says, "you're my #1 copilot," like a milk-bone biscuit. ♪ say it with milk-bone. well, it's congressional republicans this morning that have the bragging rights after david jolly's narrow victory in

florida. the goal from now until november is avoid any political potholes in the push to keep and maybe expand the house majority. joining me is the man in charge of that operation, oregon congressman greg walden. of course, he is the chairman of the nrcc. congressman, good morning to you, sir. >> good morning to you, too. >> what do you take away? why did david jolly win in your analysis? >> he ran a redibcredible and effective campaign on issues that will play out across the country. everything that underlies everything is obamacare and the problems with obamacare. and the notion of a referendum election, you're seeing it in the discussion and polling data out there. it looks pretty clearly in the targeted races, voters want a check-and-balance in washington on this president. and we're seeing that play out across the spectrum in the races that matter to the house. if i'm a democrat in one of the targeted races, i think i'm pretty panicked this morning, and i might even make the decision to let you moderate a

debate in the future. >> well, we'll leave that aside there. let me ask you this. if -- just based on what the nrcc and jolly spent versus the dccc and sink, you'd have been massively outspent had it not been for the outside groups sin you would have been massively outspent had it not been for the outside groups. do you think the outside groups were a key to victory for you? >> there was so much warfare going on on the air waves and everywhere else. what we did differently is spent the whole year working on data, analytics, ple tickredicted mod really performed and we won by 12 points on election day. i think that really speaks highly to the team in place at nrcc and our new strategy working these races that are highly competitive. remember, barack obama carried this district both times and alex sink won it when she ran for governor. >> you guys were not happy with the jolly campaign just four days ago, plenty of blind quotes, i understand, end of the campaign, real frustration, but

i tell you, our own reporting indicated jolly didn't run the best of campaigns. are you guys going to be able to make up? kiss and make up, and did you guys have to basically take over things because jolly couldn't do it? >> chuck, we had a great team on the ground with the jolly team working together to eke out a very strong win. >> you called them a keystone cops operation, someone in your staff. somebody in your staff did. >> chuck, let's not litigate the past, let's talk about election day. that's the subject, isn't it? >> i understand that. >> steve israel and the dccc said they had to win this thing. they are now spinning this is somehow a republican-plus 18 district or something. come on. what needs analysis is in the end, republicans won a very crossover district where barack obama had won twice. we have a great team, a great partnership with david jolly.

he's going to be an excellent member of congress representing pinellas county. >> you believe you have the blueprint, it's obama and it's health care. you could run that anywhere? >> chuck, so it is an underlying issue everywhere because of what it's doing to the economy and so much government in people's lives. they are upset with the president. you're seeing it in your own polling data. 41% is not good, and in our targeted races like west virginia, president's approval rating is in the 20s. this is a horrible year for democrats coming up. >> all right, greg walden, chairman of the nrcc, thanks for coming on this morning. >> you bet, chuck. >> all right. all right, now the answer to our trivia question, bill young represented four different number districts. he never really moved, but the district numbers changed. he got started representing the eighth district, got redistricted to the sixth, then back to the eighth, then the tenth, and finally it was the

13th. congratulations to today's winner, our own michael la rosa. why he's qualified for this, i don't know. we'll be right back. [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ is really what makes it slike two deals in one.he $1,000 fuel reward card my mom works at ge. salesperson #2: actually, getting a great car with 42 highway miles per gallon makes it like two deals in one. salesperson #1: point is there's never been a better time to buy a jetta tdi clean diesel. avo: during the first ever volkswagen tdi clean diesel event get a great deal on a jetta tdi. it gets 42 highway miles per gallon. and get a $1,000 fuel reward card. it's like two deals in one. volkswagen has the most tdi clean diesel models of any brand. hurry in and get a

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we come in with some breaking news out of harlem. there are reports of a possible explosion at 116th and park in new york city and a possible collapse. this is what wnbc has confirmed, all metro north trains and the subways out of grand central has been suspended due to this explosion on the tracks at 116th and park. you're seeing the first pictures there. that is smoke from the area of this explosion. we don't know what type of explosion it is. it is visible from midtown. we know it's at least been reported as a three-alarm fire. we have folks headed to the scene right now. a helicopter, the chopper, the wnbc chopper is getting ready to get off the ground.

there are people that have been evacuated from trains, there are people, obviously, being cleared from that part of the city. we're still, it's a little late in the morning, still sort of a commuting time at this point. again, it's a report of an explosion and a possible collapse. there is fear that there are people trapped in the area where this explosion took place. a possible, we don't know what kind of explosion, it's a possible explosion, three-alarm fire right there in the harlem section of new york city. chris jansing, of course, is going to be taking over coverage of this in a minute here. we have no word yet on any injuries, but again, authorities are getting to the scene, news media are getting to the scene and this is all something that my pal, chris jansing, is going to be covering right now. chris, take it away. >> we continue our breaking news coverage, again, for those of you who are just joining us, three minutes till the hour. we have a scene over manhattan here, but what has happened is

there was some sort of explosion, what appears to be an explosion, as well as a building collapse at 116th street in new york city. this is where metro north runs. this is a major commuter rail service, and it's the second busiest in terms of monthly ridership in the entire united states, so this is a major rail line and we are watching this very closely, because here's what we know is confirmed, that all the metro north trains out of grand central, i don't need to tell you what grand central terminal is, the main train station in midtown manhattan. all the met low -- metro north trains have been suspended. there's a possibility, as chuck said, there could be people trapped. we know there are train evacuations under way, and that is a heavily populated area of harlem, so we also are going to be watching to see what the situation is with buildings around there. now, 911 got a call this morning

for a reported explosion. confirmed as far as a building collapse, but we don't know what that building is. at least four people at this point have been transferred to a local hospital with injuries, and you can see up on your screen the fire department of new york is sending 33 units. that's about 106 members to that incident. they will have varying responsibilities. they'll be firefighters there that are going to deal with the aftermath of this apparent explosion. there are people on the scene that may be bomb experts if this does turn out to be a bomb and also people expert in evacuation. we are going to keep our eye on this scene, trained evacuations under way in new york city and we'll continue to watch it throughout the hour. wnbc, our affiliate here, going to send a chopper. we'll also get some reporters on the scene and continue to watch this throughout the hour here on msnbc. in the meantime, let's take you

to what's going on elsewhere. good morning, i'm chris jansing, and the white house is juggling a lot of huge stories this morning, from the ukraine, to health care, and they are worried how all of it's going to play out in the next midterm election. that's crucial to democrats if they are going to hang on to power in the senate. this hour, three cabinet members are going to be testifying on capitol hill, three separate hearings. this afternoon the president is also going to meet with the ukrainian prime minister to talk about the situation in crimea. all of it happening after that closely watched florida congressional race that democrats lost last night. just as our brand new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll showed the president's approval at 41%. those things, republican opposition on foreign policy to domestic agenda, but they aren't stopping president obama from pushing ahead. this week he's going to unveil a plan to give more people overtime pay as