o'donnell. stay with msnbc, chris hayes is up next. after putin's defiance, it's president obama's move. let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chuck todd in for chris matthews. a defiant putin told a joint session of parliament that in quotes, people's hearts and minds, crimea has been a part of russia and they signed a treaty declaring the region part of russia official. the move comes a day after the united states and european union imposed sanctions on officials. ukraine since that country's -- an overwhelming majority of voters chose to break away and join russia.

president obama today called for a meeting with the seven members of the g-8, the old g-7 of course with the notable exception to discuss the ukrainian crisis. that meeting will take place in amsterdam and vice president biden landed in poland in a trip to show solidarity with the eastern neighbors and met with the president of poland. >> today, mr. president, we spoke about a situation that's unfolding in ukraine. we agreed that a need for united states, poland and our european friends to stand together in support of ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, rejecting russia's absolutely illegitimate claims and steps to an excrimea.

. >> the sanctions were met by some in russia with mockery. the deputy prime minister sarcastically tweeted quote, i think some prankster prepareded the draft of this act of the u.s. president and in putin's 40-minute speech, he also slammed the west saying in the case of the ukraine, our western partners crossed the line. their behavior was rude, irresponsible and unprofessional. they knew very well that millions of russians live in both crimea and the ukraine. rug found itself in a position it could not back down from. if you push the spring too hard, it will always recoil. you have to remember that. here's how michael mcfall reacted to the speech. >> president putin's very dug in. i mean, this speech today was really over the top and in my opinion, really ends the post cold war era.

this is a period that started in the early years of gorbachev. it's now over. this is a different world. he's seeing everything in zero sum terms and the west and the united states is clearly his enemy. >> david axelrod is former senior political adviser to president obama and eugene robinson is a columnist for the "washington post." both are msnbc political analysts. eugene, let me start with you. michael mcfall, you heard him declaring the end of the cold war, it's over. pretty strong declaration. >> i actually don't agree with that. remember the cold war. the cold war was not just some little thipg. >> well, other countries chose to side with the other side. we don't have other countries siding with russia, really. >> two philosophical systems, huge arsenals of nuclear weapons pointed at each other. russia clearly sees itself as an adversary, a rival in some ways. i wouldn't go so far as enemy. there are common interests that

russia has with the west and i wouldn't say that the cold war has reunited. >> david axelrod, obviously, you worked with mike mcfall particularly when he was on the national security council. you're probably loathe to disagree, but he's been pretty pessimistic about putin basically from the get go. any reason to believe that this is going to end anytime soon? >> no. look, first of all, putin's getting tremendous support in his country just as a matter of pure politics and i'm a political guy, you look at the amount -- >> politics is local. it is an interesting, you almost wonder if he's covering something up in his own country and trying to use this. >> they've got their own issues and this has rallied the entire country around this sort of zenophobia, so he's gaining from this. he lemented the break of the old soviet union, but it was a different world than it is in

the 1980s and part of the reason why this is so complicated is the integration of the economies of the world and particularly of europe and russia. which makes this whole sanctions game a lot more challenging. so i have huge respect for mike mcfall. but i do think that it was a little hiber bolick. >> well, we're obviously waiting to see the next move by the president. jay carney hinted today there would be some new sanctions coming in response to this. but david, let me go to you first on this because i heard you say in response to our nbc "wall street journal" when you saw the president's numbers go down, you reminded that, of the fact that anytime a foreign policy crisis has cropped up in this white house, unlike previous presidents, there's never been a rally around the commander in chief moment for him outside of ben laden and ung that's because of the domestic situation here. >> i think people have turned

inward and you combine that with the economic pressures people are feeling and they want the president of the united states focused like a laser on their economic challenges and when these stories break out and the only thing they see on the news of the president is the president dealing with a foreign crisis, i think that they just assumed he's not working on stuff they care about that's close to them. i do think it's a measurable thing and your poll, he marginally was getting an approval for his handling of the ukraine, but his numbers were down overall. i've seen other polls where his handling similarly, people feel like he's not focused on the main issue, so i think this presents a political problem, but that's part of being president, chuck. you've got to deal with what comes your way, even if it's politically inconvenient. >> the real political impact here on the president is that

it's handcuffing him. it's keeping him in the white house. he's not out there trying to get, they're still trying to do their health care, still trying to rally people for health care. he's not out there fixing his own politics, which a bunch of democrats would like to see him do, because this is dominating. >> exactly and he can't ignore it. >> then it becomes a political problem for another reason. >> right, but political problem or not, you know, you've got a sovereign country. a piece of a sovereign country has been plucked off by putin. you have to deal with that if you're president of the united states. and the political ramifications have to fall where they may and so, if you're president obama, you get criticized by john mccain, by lindsey graham and mitt romney, who by the way, don't have solutions, but there you have it. >> very quickly, i'm reminded oddly of the oil spill, the timing of that took you guys off the midterm playing field in 20 so.

could we see a similar thing with this sort of constant crisis with russia, sort of keep the president more off the midterm playing feel than held like to be? >> maybe so. but i think it's only march. and you can anticipate there will be things that you can't, we can't think about now that domestic, foreign, that will crop up in between now and then. so i think it's too early to say this will take him off the field for the midterms, but there's no doubt it's taking him off the field now. >> i got to get to the mitt romney op-ed that he wrote this morning. "the wall street journal," when protests in ukraine grew, it was evidence romney rights that president putin might try to take advantage of the situation. that was the time to talk with our global allies about punishments and sanctions to secure solidarity. and before i get your reaction, i did ask jay carney if he

wanted to respond to the op-ed and here's what he said to me earlier today. >> today that seems to subject the president takes too, that he's left with bad options as he takes too long to make decisions. in certain situations, whether sierra or russia on foreign policy. >> i don't have a response. >> you don't have anything to say? >> i'll resist. >> jay carney resisted. david? >> well, i'm not confined as carney is. what popped to mind, which should have been called notes from the peanut gallery, the line where he said able leaders anticipate events, prepare for them and act to shape them and

all i had in any mind was the image of mitt romney sitting there on election night, the only man in america who didn't know he lost the election and he didn't prepare for that one. i think it's, the whole column offered no solutions and offered no at least acknowledgment that there might have been conversations going on that mitt romney wasn't privy to, so it came off more like sour grapes than constructive criticism. >> what was interesting is there are a lot of people in romney world, i've heard this, romney say, hey, guess what, president obama mocked romney when he said that russia was you know, the number -- it's a sore point for romney and may be the motivator for this. just to refresh, here's the back and forth. president obama during that debate in 2012 when he mocked mitt romney for that xwhent.

. >> governor romney, a few months ago when you asked what's the biggest -- you said russia, not al-qaeda in the 1980s or not, call and ask for their foreign policy back because the cold war's been over for 20 years. >> do you think mitt romney, obviously, that bugs mitt romney. that's where this op-ed is coming from. does romney have a point? >> up to a point, he has a point. you could argue this russia was turning into more of a rival than the president acknowledged. however, what's the biggest geo political threat, iran. you wouldn't say it's russia and so, he's still wrong on that specific point. >> can i add something? iran is one of those issues which we're working with russia to try and control. >> we hope the russians are

still going to work with us. >> right, but that is part of the complicated world in which we have to deal. and mitt romney didn't acknowledge that in his pete. >> all right. i will leave it there. nothing like politicizing a foreign policy crisis, but hey, we're a political network. thank you both. coming up, the mystery of the malaysian jet liner. we learn today that someone in the cockpit turned that plane to the west. but we're no closer to knowing who or why and as the search for the plane goes on, one u.s. military official says it's like trying to find a few people somewhere between oh, new york and california. meanwhile, the dragnet new jersey. new documents show governor chris christie's chief political adviser was also involved in discussions during the aftermath of the discussions while his campaign manager was more involved with the fallout than previously known. plus, scott brown.

we think inches towards a bid for the u.s. senate in new hampshire, but maybe it's another state. states like colorado, arkansas and alaska, they're actually more nervous about this than jeanne shaheen and look who's back in iowa for the fourth time in eight months. you know who it is. this is "hardball." place for politics. you've tried to forget your hepatitis c. it's slow moving, you tell yourself. i have time. after all there may be no symptoms for years. no wonder you try to push it to the back of your mind and forget it. but here's something you shouldn't forget. hepatitis c is a serious disease. if left untreated, it could lead to liver damage and potentially even liver cancer. if you are one of the millions of people with hepatitis c, you haven't been forgotten. there's never been a better time to rethink your hep c. because people like you may benefit from scientific advances.

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day 11 since malaysian airline flight 370 vanished with 239 on board. today, here's the new information. whoever was flying the plane when it made the first sharp turn to the west used the on board computer system to preprogram that change. well, this is what this means. it tells us whoever was at the controls has significant knowledge of a boeing aircraft, the pilots, and it wasn't just someone manually navigated the plane. also today, the search area has become mind bogingly large. >> the entire search area is now 2.24 million square nautical miles.

this is an enormous search area. and it is something that we should cannot possibly search on his own. >> search crews are looking for aircraft debris as far north as kazakhstan and south as the southern indian ocean and if the plane landed at this point, very unlikely, these yellow dots on the screen show the many possible locations that have runways long enough to land a plane like this. but despite the malaysian request for help, which you just heard, countries including the united states, india and vietnam are scaling back their search efforts. the u.s. has stopped using the destroyer. other countries are expected to

follow suit. joining me now with more new information is kerry sanders. all right, we seem to be getting more and more updates about what happened with the routes that were programmed and when either before or after certain systems were turned off. >> there's a very significant development today concerning that programmed turn and you used the right word when you said preprogrammed. nbc aviation correspondent tom costello has spoken to his sources who now say that the data they have reviewed from the acar system shows that the preprogramming happened in the cockpit, but may have happened just moments off takeoff. up until now, there's been this belief that the preprogramming or programming itself was taking place in flight just before the turn took place. now, sources suggest that that programming may have taken place just moments after takeoff, now, why would somebody in the cockpit like the pilot or co-pilot program or preprogram a

turn like that? well, it's not uncommon -- who has extensive experience to put in an emergency, go back to base sort of turn in case they run into trouble, but it also raises question about whether there was some sort of plot being worked out and this was all part of that plot. and so, it's a really rather large development, one that the investigators can use to try to piece together a story, but what they really can't do is answer the question until they get some sort of wreckage. hopefully a black box. >> obviously, and kerry, you brought up the pilot, i just want to bring up this sort of additional news. malaysian authorities say so far, any, all the searches that have been done of the captain and first officers homes, computers, the flight sim sim later, it's turned up nothing suspicious. >> it's not like they got that computer two minutes ago.

it doesn't take much for a forensic review of the hard disk to say was this a, was there like a practice on the simulator so they can now say hey, it looks like he followed that rehearsal that was on the flight simulator. i think one of the questions that is hanging out there is they've gone over the flight manifest of who the passengers were. the flight crew. extensive research into the pilot and the co-pilot. but what has not really been answered is whether somebody was on the plane that just wasn't on one of those manifests and that that person may have been involved in what's taken place here. >> the longer this has gone on, the more speculation has gone to some crazy scenarios that people are painting. but the actual investigators, the longer they go without any evidence of the plane anywhere, any new evidence of the plane, physical evidence showing up, what does this tell them? does that make them think it's more likely a crash, more likely

in the ocean? what do the investigators themselves take away from the fact that we're now 11 days in and have no evidence of the plane turning up anywhere? >> i think significant is that the ntsb working with the australian authorities have basically carved out an area in the southern india ocean where they are now attacking with resources from new zealand, australia and the united states. aircraft flying there. why are they targeting that area? yes, we believe this plane crashes, that it crashed because somebody was at the controls doing something deliberate and i think they're going to conclude it's somewhere in this deep, deep waters off of australia. it's about 1500 miles west of perth, but it is such a large area. it's 600,000 square kilometers.

it will take a long time. weeks. >> all right. thank you. nbc's kerry sanders. we're now joined by thailand aviation expert, daniel rose. good evening. you've heard this new information about the programming of the computers. i just want to get your reaction on that. >> well, you know, seems to be another string of these tidbits of information that we're getting that are not in and of themselves dispositive, but can be used to support a deliberate type of action in the cockpit or as could easily also be used to support a mechanical issue and a mechanical failure. you pointed out it's not uncommon for a predent for a pilot to preprogram a route, that could be the explanation why that was in this and he was faced with an emergency situation. >> one of the theorys that has

gained so much traction in social media is one that was written in wired magazine by the retired pilot, who believes the explanation is simple. this was simply an electrical fire. you've spent a lot of time with families of victims of plane crashes, so you've spent a lot of time investigating these, being following these investigations. he's trying to write sort of the razor approach, what's the most logical explanation and that's what he came up with. what do you make of it? >> it's hard to say that that's the simplest given what we know about the information we have and unfortunately, the accuracy over the last week of some of it. but i tend to fundamentally agree that and i think that's a

precept of aviation investigations, you have to look hard at this simplest answer and you know, i was involved in the last boeing that had an inflight fire. the illegal claims that came out of that and the thing about an in flight fire or mechanical failure, structural failure, it provides a kind of randomness to explain how these dots all connect. because right now, all we have are these discreet tidbits of information that can line up one way or the other and you know, a mechanical malfunction or inflight fire can explain how certain systems come offline in a certain sequence that fits and comports with the information that we have. >> sounds essentially, using chaos theory to explain. it seems illogical until something logical, you come up with a logical explanation. >> exactly. that is exactly what you may need in a situation to explain what we're faced with here.

>> got to find the plane. >> yeah, got to find the plane. that will provide all the answers and you know, that could take some time at this point. >> all right. mr. rose, i appreciate your time and expertise on this. thanks very much. all right. coming up, we've still got a lot more to talk about. scott brown, chris christie. it's all coming up right after this. [ female announcer ] for a brilliant smile there's a breakthrough in whitening. from crest 3d white, new brilliance toothpaste and boost. after brushing, our exclusive boost polishes your smile and whitens with 3x the stain lifting ingredient for a smile that dazzles.

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a little chris there with the laugh. time for the side show. as tensions continue to mount with russia over the ukraine, the battle lines of the cold war are back. most recently, a russian journalist, a putin appointed tv anchor said russia is quote the only country in the world capable of turning the usa into radioactive dust. gee, thanks a lot. he also depicted what he calls quote russia's system of nuclear revenge.

a device called the perimeter, which is set to automatically deploy nuclear warheads in the case of an atact, the kind of thing that sounds like it's straight out of the script of a movie about the cold war and anyone who's seen that film knows the perils of bad communication in times of crisis. but here's something you may not know. that it was the first movie that actually depicted the infamous red phone, the hot line, the direct link that connected washington to moscow. since dr. strange loved numerous films, most commonly in the form of you're seeing that there, the infamous red phone. no rotary. it was even used in a campaign spot for walter mondale in 1984. now, while it's true that the hot line does exist, the notion that it's a red phone is a myth. it was never a phone at all. here's what it really looked like when it was installed in is the 63. >> at the pentagon today, they

roled in teletype machines. the hot line will be in service 24 hours a day for urgent messages only. during the cube crisis, the communications were dangerously slow, so, the hot line. >> today, the white house confirmed to us that the hot line with moscow still exists and that although president obama has never used it, he uses a direct voice link, telephone, to speak with putin. a little cold war cultural update. next, the investigation into the lane closures of the george washington bridge. more documents showed up today and these indicate that governor christie's chief political strategist was part of discussions about the fallout of the scandal. and his campaign manager though apparently was more involved than was known. that's coming up. you're watching "hardball." the place for politics.

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here's what's happening. welcome back to "hardball." the christie dragnet just keeps getting bigger. "the new york times" is reporting that federal prosecutors in new jersey have subpoenaed the port authority chairman, david samson, relating

to potential conflicts of interest. their immediate focus involves contracts worth nearly $3 million. this is separate from the bridge incident. the north star ledger reports that new documents had been made public by state investigators now link christie's chief political strategist to discussions about the scandal. that is the former political director for john mccain's political campaign. wouldn't be that surprising if after the fact he would be brought into these discussions. the star ledger also reports that the documents reveal christie's campaign manager, bill stepien, was more in the loop about the bridgegate aftermath than previously known, so, why does that matter? here's why. bill stepien along with bridgette kelly, are waging an all out war against the state investigators. stepien is on record as calling ft. lee mayor an idiot and kelly is the one who penned the famous e-mail, text, who said time for

some traffic problems in ft. lee. both have been taken to court for refusing to comply with subpoenas for documents. their lawyers are pleading the fifth, arguing it is equivalent to -- but those newly released documents suggest otherwise. in them, stepien is basically told by -- that they're developing a quote narrative to contain the fallout. stepien even praises him. he testified this whole ordeal was the result of an innocent traffic study when according to later testimony, no such study existed and the evidence suggests the lanes were closed as an act of political payback and the day after his testimony, stepien texted burroniu hey, great job yesterday. i know it's not a fun topic and not as fun as beating up on

frank lautenberg, but you did great and i wanted to thank you to which rereplied, thanks, william -- will keep their nonsense, but at least we have explained the counternarrative. well, loretta weinberg and the co-chair of the committee investigating and an msnbc legal analyst and former u.s. attorney. senator weinberg, you're mentioned in that text message. obviously called it nonsense, but i want to focus on this phrase counternarrative. it sort of struck me as an odd phrase to say if it's not why if you're telling you would assume if you're telling the truth, you would say i'm telling the truth. >> well, counternarrative is a good euphamism for cover up. i know it was a cover up.

because the moment that i heard the testimony, i knew that it was untrue. because it was all built around the idea that there are somehow private roads for ft. lee only residents that lead to the george washington bridge. that is completely untrue. there are no such lanes of traffic. no private roads only open to private residents and carry 25% of the traffic and they are 25% of the roadways that lead to the upper level of the george washington bridge. not only was there no traffic study, there are no private roads for the use of ft. lee residents only. so, that was a cover up. it was untrue and it was untrue

from the moment somebody wrote it to the moment bill uttered it. >> was he under oath when he told you this? in your committee? >> i'm sorry? repeat that. >> was he under oath when he said -- >> no, he was not. nor was he there as a result of subpoena. he was there by the prior assembly transportation committee, which was a precursor to our joint committee. >> let me bring in kendall coffee. if you had a client that was saying counternarrative, what would you assume that client was really trying to tell you? >> well, i would assume there is a script that somebody's been developing and when it's counter to the truth, i'd be concerned about it. stepien is not only endorsing that, he's cheerleading it. saying great job.

it's got to be something with -- one of my why they're pushing hard for protections. >> it was interesting, the lawyer for bridgette kelly, claims that the document, would require her to in effect testify against herself. if you were her lawyer, would you be doing what he's doing? >> i would. i would not be trying to make it any easier to build a case against my client. at the same time, as long as at kelly or stepien and i'm not assuming anything about anybody's innocence, but as long as they have information, which hasn't been turned over to prosecutors, if they had done something wrong, they've got to make a deal with somebody, then they've got a few more cards to

play by keeping those in their own hands and not handing them over to state vest dpaters. >> senator, why is it that you need these papers? >> we didn't put bill stepien's name into the record. those e-mails and the reasons we are asking for what ever other documents he might have were -- >> is there any way of identifying what you want? >> we are concerned with the issues around closures of the lane. now, we want to know why and who knew about these lanes before or who might have given bridgette kelly the go ahead to do this. so, obviously mr. stepien's name turned up from other e-mails that we received, other

documents that we received, so we're only asking mr. stepien and miss kelly for those documents that already exist. we're not asking them to produce anything new or to give us testimony. we are just asking for the documents that already exist. why did bridgette kelly send that e-mail? again, we're not on a fishing expedition. we didn't terminate mr. stepien from his potential job. the governor did that. we didn't suggest that he shouldn't be a consultant to the republican governor's association, the governor did that. his ostensible reason was mr. stepien called the mayor an idiot. i might pose the question as opposed to what? to how the governor has terminated, i'm sorry, not terminated, but has used words

about some of my colleagues in the legislature? so, you know, as i said, this is not anything that we in the committee dreamed up. this was done by other documents that we received and now we'd like to know from mr. stepien and miss kelly what role they played in this. >> very, very, very quickly, how likely is it that the judge will quash this subpoena? >> i think she's going to look for balance. there's some fifth amendment issues, she's going to try to find a way to reach the middle ground. >> fair enough. thank you both. coming up next, scott brown is closer to running for senate in new hampshire. taking a lot of democrats in other states sweat, but maybe not jeanne shaheen. we'll explain. this is "hardball." place for politics. a breakthrou. from crest 3d white, new brilliance toothpaste and boost. after brushing, our exclusive boost polishes your smile

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you probably knew this, but ted cruz kind of has his eye on a -- texas senator is making his fourth trip to the first in the nation caucus state of iowa and it's just in the last eight months. cruz has not even been in the u.s. senate for two years. he's keynote speaker for the network of iowa christian home educators. very important folks to have organizing a caucus. cruz by the way has made more trips to iowa than any of the other potential republican contenders with the exception of rand paul. i'm announcing today i

formed an exploratory committee to prepare a campaign for the united states senate in new hampshire.

i'm announcing today i formed an exploratory committee to prepare a campaign for the united states senate in new hampshire. >> we're back. that was former massachusetts senator scott brown announcing a committee to run for the u.s. senate again. this time, from neighboring new hampshire. trying to become a republican nominee against jeanne shaheen. now, shaheen starts off with a double digit lead over brown if you believe the latest poll out of new hampshire, but his potential candidacy is another setback. here's why.

they could face a slew of defeats in what some say could be another gop wave like 2010. the big fear is that scott brown while he doesn't defeat a jeanne shaheen, takes away precious resources. i'm announcing today that i formed an exploratory committee to prepare a campaign for the joan, we want to get into this whole scott brown and how long it's taken him to get into this thing a little bit, but the big picture here, republicans found another, you know, plausible challenger to a democratic incumbent in a purple state. not exactly a red state. >> sure, no, i mean, look, if it really is a wave election, chuck, we both know pretty much any pair of hands with an "r" next to his name wins and that describes scott brown. it's incredibly brazen. i'm not a new hampshire republican. even new hampshire republicans have to be saying the guy just served a year ago in the senate from another state, like, it gives carpet bagging a bad name.

so, you know, it's not a hugely fearsome challenge, but it probably -- it will force her to spend some money, force democrats to spend some money that they'd rather spend someplace else. >> but, you know, this primary, dana milbank, is not a fore gone conclusion. this is new hampshire that invented the conservative primary challenge. this used to happen all the time. kelly ayotte in 2010 barely got out of her primary. she was the establishment candidate, the moderate then she got this last-minute sarah palin endorsement and beat back these conservative challengers. he's got bob smith, former new york senator from new hampshire, very conservative candidate, who by the way is the last guy to try to run for the senate in another state like scott brown did. he's in this primary. the primary is not a fore gone conclusion for scott brown. >> no, it's not. bob smith did crazy before crazy

was in vogue, you know, back -- >> right. he was marginalized in the senate. today he might be celebrated. >> no, no, he would definitely be in the mainstream right now. >> right. >> but theoretically. but that's a big name. there are probably a lot of new hampshire republicans who would just like to have anybody other than bob smith there. i don't think the primary is his primary challenge. i think that the, you know, new hampshire is not the same live free or die conservative state that it used to be. a lot of bedroom community for massachusetts, lot of people getting lattes after their yoga class. >> interesting the fun little item making the rounds today, joan, this "the new york times" magazine by mark leibovich, people who professionally float themselves for office, and at least, at least scott brown, unlike sarah palin or donald trump or others, appears to actually run rather than just have himself as part of the great mentioner. >> he does run and he did win, people. but he does look like exactly what mark is talking about.

this perennial candidate who's, you know, going to make money and keep us talking about him. >> it is. very quickly, dana, do you think if brown is successful in this, this encourages more of the great mentioner and suddenly -- >> oh, goodness. >> -- the entire -- is this one of those -- >> president scott brown, he's been to iowa a few times. i think he's going to iowa again. just what the republicans need. another guy from massachusetts with a vacation home in new hampshire, worked out really well for them last time. >> now his residency is new hampshire. maybe he figured that was the mistake mitt romney made. dana milbank, joan walsh. we could have had fun with this all day long, but i have to keep it there. mom! my llama smells like you. oh, kiss llama for mommy! i use tide plus febreze in the wash. it keeps their clothes and stuffed animals smelling fresher for longer. plus the smell reminds them of me. how many more sleeps until you're back? [ chuckles ] just one more! aw, that many? [ female announcer ] tide plus febreze. that's my tide plus.

it's tuesday. somebody's voting somewhere. that's illinois today. republicans fighting to take on the most vulnerable democratic candidate. bruce rauner leads that republic an field. polls in illinois close at 8:00 eastern time. clarence page is a columnist with the "chicago tribune" and "associated press'" sara burnett with us from chicago. i'm going to go to you. pat quinn. you covered illinois politics a long time. have you ever seen a governor this vulnerable going into re-election? >> it's hard to remember, but four years ago he was down in the polls also. >> yeah. >> four years ago was a different election year. so this time, i mean, he'll win the primary. >> sure. no bill daly, no lisa madigan who a lot of people thought quinn would get primaried and he

didn't. >> he didn't. the general, bruce rauner has a lot of money behind him. he's new. he's expected to win. >> right. >> and we'll see what happens in november. but quinn still has organized labor on his side, a lot of other cards on the deck. >> sara, with bruce rauner, my following of illinois politics says the self-funding millionaire candidates actually don't have a good track record. what makes him potentially different? >> that's correct. you know, he has come in, though, with a very strong message about shaking up how things are done at the state capitol, ending pay to play, starting term limits which has been popular with illinois voters. he's gone right after those labor unions saying he wants to governor in the same way as scott walker and mitch daniels did. that attracted union involvement in this gop primary like we've never seen before. >> mention the name scott

walker, though, and mitch daniels, that's going to fire up the democratic base, perhaps. do they ever get fired up about pat quinn, or are they going to need barack obama jumping in and helping, whose numbers are not great? >> a lot of that is the disenchantment. we'll have excitement of four years or so ago, not six years ago. this organized labor is also divided because quinn pushed -- >> they don't like the pension reform he did. >> that's right. illinois is at the bottom as far as debt is concerned. and also unemployment, about third from the bottom. so obviously there are fiscal problems to be taken care of and quinn is in the squeeze. anything could happen. >> do you expect if rauner gets the nomination, sara, he's going to make a hard move to the center? >> absolutely. he has been so disciplined already about keeping his message focused on economics. the state's massive financial problems.

he's gone as far as to say i don't have a social agenda. >> it's going it be the closest governors race in the country if it happens. quinn/rauner. we'll watch tonight for the results. thank you. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. good evening from new york p.m. i'm chris hayes. and the most important story in the world tonight is the escalation of the crisis in ukraine. today, the first fatal shots have been fired, the ukrainian soldier is dead. russia has officially annexed the peninsula of crimea, and ukraine has mobilized troops on the border. all while the war of words between washington and moscow has escalated to a point where it gets harder and harder to see how either side backs down. >> it seems we do have the first shots fired in anger, the rs