the uk company that provided the satellite data which indicated a northern and southern corridors has been performing further calculations on the data. using a type of analysis never before used in an investigation of this sort, they have been able to shed more light on m.a. flight 370's path. it is, therefore, with deep sadness and regret that i must inform you that according to this new data, flight 370 ended

in the southern indian ocean. >> heartbreaking devastation. any hope of flight 370 survivors is gone. family members reacting like any of us would to new data that proves malaysia flight 370 has, in fact, crashed. this hour in an msnbc "cycle" exclusive, the company that provided that satellite information will explain to us how they came to the gut-wrenching discovery. it's calculated beyond a doubt that the flight ended in the middle of the ocean. right now, we're waiting to hear if possible flight 370 debris seen from the air will be found by an australian ship. if they succeed, it could be another significant break. it would give investigators something tangible to test and possibly confirm the fate of the plane's 239 passengers, including three americans. and another twist, the malaysian

government is trying to debunk suggestions that the pilots deliberately programmed the ultimate flight path. they said the last acar's transmission did not show the reroute contradicting u.s. reports it had. tom costello has the latest. one of the many frustrating aspects of the search is items seen from the air or by satellite disappear by the time ships arrive. where's the search focus now? >> that's a good point. it's a massive search zone. here we are all the way at the end of what we believe was the end of this plane's fuel limit. the -- all the fuel was exhausted. it was on fumes as it ended all the way down here in the south indian ocean somewhere about 1,500 or so off of perth, australia. and you mentioned those images we have seen over the course, over the past few days. this was the image that was on the satellite image from the australians. and here's the one that was from the chinese. it's hard to see, isn't it?

it's very grainy. it's about, they say, 72 feet or so in length. and so the question becomes where is that? you would think you would see something if it's 73 feet, almost the length of a tennis court. you would see that somewhere in the ocean. the trouble is as we have said many times, this is a massive search zone. and, in fact, if you look at the new search zone that's been given by the australians, this has now been cut down from 102,000 square miles down to 20,000 square miles. so it's still a huge area to look for something as small, relatively, as that. and so now you've heard about the chinese seeing debris and the australians seeing debris. and so naval vessels are on their way into that area hoping they can find it. they've also dropped marker buoys in the area, transmitting data on sea currents and the like hoping that will give them a sense of how far the material might have drifted. and ultimately, what they want to be able to pull out of the

ocean if they're lucky is a black box. and as we've said, they're not black, they're orange because that's the mandate from the federal government since the 1960s. so you can spot one of these easily in wreckage. in a plane wreckage. but specifically, here's the pinger on the end of it that now has about, we're told, less than two weeks of mandatory battery life in it. it may be going longer than that, but it is required to go for 30 days, and we've now used up more than half of that time already. in the black box itself, there are two components to the black box, right? there's the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder. in the data recorder, you're going to have hundreds of parameters of data. nearly 1,000. it's going to be everything including engine speed and the heat of the engine at the time. what are the settings like in the cockpit? what was the trim like? how was the plane positioned? were the passengers in the back -- were they wearing oxygen masks? was there a decompression event? was the plane on autopilot? a whole host of issues they

should be able to ascertain by getting the flight data recorder. and that is why it's critical they find debris, backtrack the debris to the wreckage, and then, probably, drop an rov or remotely operated vehicle, a robot down to the surface of the ocean, two to three miles deep and look for these boxes. that's not going to be an easy task. because this is a mountain range in here. and while it's not as rugged as the atlantic ocean described as the rocky mountains, more of the appalachian mountains in here. but difficult sea conditions, as you know, right at that vortex between the south indian ocean and the southern sea, the southern ocean where we have incredibly strong currents. very high waves, and they're moving into the winter season in about another six weeks. so they have a limited window here in which they hope to isolate the debris, get a sense of where the wreckage is, mark

it, and then chances are, they may have to wait until the winter passes before they can really go into a deep dive and try to find these black boxes. it's going to be a big effort. and this is not something going to be done in a couple weeks or couple of months. this will take them some time to solve this mystery and figure out why this plane went so offcourse coming all the way down here. thousands of miles off-course. and what led the pilots or somebody onboard to bring this plane where it finally ended? >> as you said, this is a very time-sensitive search. and on that note, analysis of the pings indicated that the plane actually wasn't anywhere near the areas of either side of malaysia where ships had been searching for three days after the plane disappeared. that's a huge chunk of time wasted in a search like this. why did it take so long to get the analysis of the pings? >> well, i think that's the question put to the malaysians.

malaysians are the ones that had that information, sat on it and didn't immediately expedite sending that information to their own people or for that matter, to the australians. it took nearly a week of before finally that information was shared. and therefore the search zone was identified as being something that's more likely to be in the south rather than the north. one other point, though, important to make. and since you're going to talk -- let me reset. this plane was originally headed this way, headed north up the spine of vietnam headed toward beijing. it did a u-turn out over the gulf of thailand. if that were the end of the story and the plane ended up down here, then everybody would be saying there must have been some sort of an awful event onboard and maybe everybody was incapacitated. but that's not all that happened. as we now know the data suggested it came up and then down. the data suggests that the plane

made a right turn over the strait before coming down south. why would somebody do that? if you could make the right turn in theory, you could have made it back to a malaysian airport. in theory, you could have communicated with air traffic controllers, transponder was off, the acar's data was no longer transmitting. there was a lot here to suggest this was intentional. >> all right. tom costello, thank you very much for that. let's bring in a physical oceanographer at air and space research. she's been analyzing surface currents to determine where the debris might be now. kathleen, we have a break in the case. a little daylight, it seems like, but does this actually put us any closer to where we might be -- need to be to actually find the plane? >> i think it's a great break in the case. because if you know more information, any information -- because right now, we've been going on hypotheses and trying to guess where things went. but if you can know where to start from, at least roughly and

where a piece of debris is now or has been spotted, then you can get a better handle on what parameters are at play. with respect to the wind versus currents. if it's just currents carrying it along, that gives us more information if it's wind pushing on the surface and blowing it in different directions in addition to currents. and if it's just currents, what i would assume but with no information i can't say for sure, then it'll be a lot slower transport. and so really does narrow down the field quite a bit. but with the two and the beginning point and the end point today, we have a lot more to go with now. >> and kathleen, how precisely are you able to model? once you know roughly where the plane entered the ocean. how precisely are you able to model and guesstimate where the wreckage might be in the ocean? >> it is still a challenge. because unfortunately, the nature of turbulence is the

randomness. even if you knew down to meter scales what the currents were doing, it's still -- there's still enough randomness to shove -- or to push you from one path to another path. and so you can end up in different places tens of miles apart even though you started from almost the same point and you knew everything. turbulence is just -- it creates, it creates all the problems. >> right. >> at least we can get a much, much tighter control on it if we know how much is -- how much the wind is at play. but then, that's all talking at the surface. if once you start thinking about sinking, that adds this whole other dimension to the problem. at least the good news is once you go deeper, the currents are much less in strength. it's a lot -- also a lot more unknown because we don't have a lot of data of what's going on

under the surface of the ocean, for the deep ocean in general. but in general, it's a lot slower currents. so at least -- >> right. >> it won't be moving around a lot. >> we're getting there. >> when we say someone is an oceanographer and they can study the ocean in this kind of situation, what are the tools a the your disposal. how do you know what you know about the ocean? >> so how i know what i know is i use satellite data to calculate surface currents. so this is all nasa project, all satellite information. i don't personally go out and put instruments in the ocean. but there's data available. there's global drifters out there that are drifting buoys around the world and floats that are subsurface down around 1,500 meters and traveling around taking measurements. and so there's -- you try to couple it all together. but me personally i'm a satellite oceanographer these

days. so i look at the surface mixed layer of the ocean. and i calculate currents. so what i have -- and winds. i use winds, as well. so for this type of problem, i have the information of what the surface is doing. >> and just so our viewers know, we're looking at maps up on the screen, those are showing intensity of currents, the brighter the color, the more rapid, i guess you would say the current. >> we now have a more defined search area. and areas of debris spotted by australians and chinese. give us a sense of timing here. how long will it take for authorities to get their eyes on them? if they are, in fact, pieces of this plane? >> you know, it's -- in addition to currents, i didn't even get into surface waves. it's a little out of my personal field of study. but surface waves alone can --

there's a drift associated. and they make it a challenge to spot from the air because they can obscure something. these are all -- how do you put a time on that? >> i also meant to mention that it's really important to know where the plane potentially went down because there's that the strong current. the current that we think the debris is in. but if a plane went down outside of that, north of that, the currents are much less strong. and so there's a lot more hope that we can contain the search area even more. but it all depends one just needs that information. >> kathleen, thank you very much for leading our coverage today. this is the story america is talking about. it is dominating "the cycle" today. we'll take you to the headquarters of the search in

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the massive multiple country search for malaysia flight 370 is now in the third week. we are talking about a huge search area the size of west virginia. there are six planes and eight ships crisscrossing the waters looking for possible debris. seven commercial vessels are part of that search. the u.s. has one p-8 poseidon. they flew three hours and 1,200 miles to reach the remote site. it was the most intense, longest

and lowest search for the u.s. air crew. and bill says the best way to describe the atmosphere is tense. >> reporter: yes, krystal, i've stepped off one of those search planes, a u.s. navy poseidon aircraft, and it was a very, very dramatic flight and dramatic day above the indian ocean. we were six hours into the flight and above the search area crisscrossing that area when we got orders to divert south based on reported sightings of debris by an australian and chinese plane. we diverted immediately and went down to 200 feet above the indian ocean. remember, this is a boeing 737. and it was flighting at 260-odd-miles-an-hour. it was very close to the surface of the sea, but the visibility was appalling. you couldn't even see the sea at some points at 200 feet.

nevertheless, there were ten sets of eyes and minds looking at the ocean. operators staring at their screens and monitors. and on the monitors was a continuous video feed from a camera underneath the plane. also on either side were two spotters looking out windows. they had binoculars, as well. and at the front, the three pilots scanning the horizon scouring the sea for any sign of this debris. we crisscross the debris field, two or three times. we didn't see anything visually. but on the radar, they had two or three confirmed blips, which they believe were part of that debris field. and which malaysian airlines now seem to suggest was the site of the crashed plane. it was despiriting at times. the crew was frustrated they couldn't see more. the commander of the plane said they wanted to see the debris so they could give closure to the families. but they still consider their

mission a success because they carried it out and they cleared a lot of area where there was no debris. so by a process of elimination, they have now cleared that area of debris. so a very dramatic day above the indian ocean. krystal? >> thank you so much for that report. and here with us now is kyle bailey, an aviation analyst and pilot. and kyle, given what we know at this point about where the plane went down and the ocean about that additional right-hand turn, that was taken about the plane potential lip going down as low as 12,000 feet in altitude, are there any possibilities for what happened onboard that flight that we can definitively rule out? or are all possibilities still open in your view? >> the one thing we can rule out at this point is the airplane is probably in pakistan or somewhere up north. right now, if i had to put my odds on it, i would say pretty much most likely a rapid

decompression, low cabin pressure and that plane descended, either automatically or by the pilots to get down to a level where the passengers could actually breathe. >> and what sort of events would lead to a rapid depressurization? >> it's usually a structural failure. even a fire if there were lithium batteries in the cargo hold as reporting, a fire could cause a rapid decompression, any kind of structural failure of the airplane. and, you know, depending on how quickly that cabin pressure was released, you know, but the plane could've gone down automatically by autopilot or actually by the pilots. >> that loss of altitude, we know the plane went down to 12,000 feet and went back up. so what are some of the reasons, potentially for that? you talk about potentially there was a fire, maybe something nefarious. what do you think is the most likely thing to be the reason for that? >> i'm skeptical of the 45,000-foot decline and then the sharp descent.

i mean, basically, it's above the service ceiling of the airplane, which means there's a thin margin within about 5 knots of the stall versus overspeeding the airplane. i don't believe the plane went up to 45,000 feet. >> okay. >> at this point right now, i'm leaning towards any kind of structural failure or loss of cabin pressure. >> what do we know now about the turn that took place? there have been conflicting reports. but what would cause the plane to go south, basically, the total opposite direction of where it was supposed to go? and is this something that only the pilot could've done? >> there actually is a function on the autopilot called an autodescent. they could simply hit a button or actually even happen by itself where the plane would descend and make a 90-degree left turn on its own if there was a drastic loss of cabin pressure or it could have been initiated by the pilots. >> you're saying it could have not been initiated by anyone.

>> that's correct. >> and you raise the possibility of potentially a fire onboard, which is something that folks have been speculating about. >> sure. >> if there had been a fire on board that really was a problem and created issues for the crew and the passengers, would the plane have been able to proceed another seven hours until it ran out of gas? or would typically a fire be so damaging to the plane that it wouldn't continue to fly? >> well, there is very high-tech fire suppression equipment on the airplane in the cargo hold. that's a very good question. normally, i would think if there was a significant fire on the plane to jeopardize the structural integrity of the airplane, it would not be able to continue on for almost seven hours duration. but, you know, in the back of my mind, there still is the possibility of an intruder in the cockpit or even the pilots causing this. but, the focus with the media is on the flight simulator. i think with the flight simulator -- >> the flight simulator -- >> that the pilot has.

>> had at his home. >> yes, that leads me to believe he was a very dedicated captain. and i'm leaning more toward an intruder. >> now that we're getting a little more information from the malaysian government and a little more feeling of at least closure about the fact that this is probably a downed airplane and not something else. what is the kind of view of sort of the pilot community on this as folks around the world who do this work, which is high-impact and can be risky. what do you think is the view? >> i mean, i think everyone is holding back from making judgment because this story has taken so many twists and turns. it seems like every three hours, there's different information coming back. the plane made a left turn, right turn, nobody really seems to know exactly what happened. and, you know, we could all be wrong. this story might surprise us in the very end. so there really is basically -- there's basic speculation. but basically in the back of, you know, our minds, we're open

to basically anything. >> surprising us all along. >> well, we really appreciate your insights today. >> thank you. >> and when we come back, say we finally find this thing. then what? discovering the wreckage means we're far from discovering the answers to what actually happened. we'll bring in the former number two at the fbi to tell us more about their process that is still to come on "the cycle's" continuing coverage of flight 370, vanished. [ water splashing ]

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and we're back with our breaking coverage. in a few hours, investigators are set to resume their search for the flight 370's wreckage in the indian ocean. reports indicate malaysian police have seized bank and phone records of the flight's two pilots and questioned the wife and three children of captain shah digging into domestic trouble at home. may be the clearest sign yet

that the plane's unexpected sharp turn south 40 miles after takeoff was no accident. the fbi's already looking at the pilot's flight simulators. but our next guest says they'll need a lot more evidence to find out what really happened. tim murphy is a former deputy director for the fbi. we continue to focus on these pilots because we have nothing else to focus on. is that where you would focus? >> i think if the fbi is doing this. and they're not leading the investigation. they're assisting in the investigation, providing guidance, providing, hey, maybe you should look at the pilot, the co-pilot, the crew, all the passengers doing normal scrub like the fbi would do. they're late to to the game. yeah, generally you want to look at the life cycle of an individual. what have they been doing for the last year? their online presence, who are they communicating with? what's their family life like?

their financial situation. all of these can build to the clues that are already out there. >> would you look at the cockpit? >> yes, i would. if you look -- to be an investigator, you have an open mind and i would look at the cockpit because right now with the facts we have, which have been inaccurate. you can probably rule out terrorism, hijacking for the most part. the probabilities right now are the cockpit, someone was in control of that aircraft, someone turned it, nobody communicated, someone turned off a transponder, turned off acars. they had ample time, even during an emergency if you look at past events that it's very easy to put in a transponder code of 7500, 7600. none of that was done. that's going to be a red flag that something in the cockpit went on, intruder or the pilots themselves. there was too much expertise that you needed to turn off acars, to go down and turn it off, turn off the transponder

and made the turns it made. very odd. >> they're also looking into psychological pressures as mentioned earlier, they're also talking to the wife of the pilot and the three kids and looking into their living situation. as you said the internet activity and phone activity. what are they looking to find? and what sorts of questions will they be asking his family? >> i think if you look at that. the past events, whether it's taking over an aircraft, committing suicide. there usually is if you look at an active shooter, there's a tipping point a long history and a tipping point. many times financial, many times domestic, many times divorce. i think they'll ask those kinds of questions. were there any outside stressors or internal stressors? and they'll start putting a profile. use behavioral analysis on these individuals and put a profile together and say what's the likelihood that some event caused this, political leanings, religious leanings. and you'll get a full picture of

these individuals. and that's what the fbi is good at and going to help them with on the ground. >> i think that's a great point that even though this particular circumstance is so unusual, the sort of psychological pressures and profile that you might find in an individual that would take extreme action is something you see time and again. but i wanted to ask you. the malaysian prime minister in his press conference, when he said the flight had ended in the ocean. he was pretty unequivocal, can you be that certain without actually having a piece of physical evidence? >> i say no. i probably wouldn't have phrased it that way or said it that way. what i would have said is what we've done is this analysis that's been done, and they show that the last communication was in this area of the ocean. probability is it? it went down. i'm not sure i would have gone the extra step like they did. >> let's talk about the fbi's role specifically. when you were there, you were

helping transform it from a traditional law enforcement agency to an intelligence gathering agency, because after 9/11 the fbi had to do so much more. we are looking at an incident here that as part of the threat matrix may have been international terrorism, right? walk us through how the fbi, while it may say it's not in the lead and doesn't have full operational authority, how it has to assess and respond to something that may or may not be terrorism. >> well, i think at this stage, you can bet that the fbi and the intelligence community is putting together a package and looking at every single passenger, every single crew member, and then they're looking back -- are they connected to anybody with all this intelligence work we've done over the last 12 years, making these connections worldwide of who knows who. the social networking of terrorism. who is communicating with who, what is driving them? that work, i can guarantee. even though the fbi's not in the lead on this, that work's being done back here. you have to because you just don't know if this is terrorism. now, probability, low, but you

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take the next step. talk to your doctor. this is humira at work. the news cycle begins with the devastating mud slide in washington state. eight people confirmed dead and more than 100 still missing after a section of hillside gave way bringing with it a tsunami of mud and debris. at least 30 homes were destroyed and a mile long stretch of highway is buried under 20 feet of mud. rescue officials are working around the clock. they say the quick sand-like conditions will be hampering their efforts to search for the missing. a train at chicago's o'hare airport hopped off the track and came to rest half way up an escalator. more than 30 people injured in this derailment. but none of the injuries appear to be life threatening. officials are still investigating the cause. a spokesman said it was traveling at high speed.

and spring officially sprung last week, but that has not changed the forecast. the maps might look clear for now. but heavy snow is in the future for much of new england late tomorrow. up to 1/2 foot is possible here in parts of the northeast and new england. bundle up, everyone, winter is not over yet. president obama is huddling with g7 countries in an effort to build a united front against russian president vladimir putin. this week will also involve a nuclear summit and a much-anticipated meeting on thursday with pope francis. and the president's trip provides a chance to huddle about the push against ukraine and the counterterrorism efforts. president obama hosted the first summit in 2010 part of his call for multilateral efforts to combat nuclear terrorism. nbc's peter alexander is traveling today with the president. peter? >> reporter: all right. good to visit with you.

after about two hours of meeting in that emergency gathering of the g7, president obama, we just saw arriving at the dutch king's palace here for a dinner with folks here for that nuclear summit. the real headline from this visit is the conversations about the ukraine. president obama during that meeting of the g7 leaders was expected to push other leaders to expel russia from the g8, suspend them indefinitely. we are waiting for word from the white house in the form of a readout, perhaps by putting a member of the administration on camera to make the exact assessment of those g7 leaders. in addition, the president was pushing the g7 leaders for more specific details in terms of how far they're willing to go in terms of additional sanctions when it comes to russia. i'm looking down to my blackberry to make sure that statement isn't coming out as we speak to you. right now, we also heard from president obama in an interview where he made it very clear that russia has violated the

international order that has been built up over decades in the words of the president's national security adviser. one of his deputy national security advisers says there's no reason to engage with russia right now. we also expect to learn exactly where the next visit, the next meeting of the g7 will take place. we heard from the british prime minister today that the g8 is scheduled to take place this spring in sochi, russia, has, in fact, been canceled. it is likely we'll learn that the g7 will meet next this june in brussels. >> thanks for your reporting on the scene. and now we return. >> good to see you. >> let me start with where we're at on the domestic politics here. it seems to me when this whole thing started, there was a lot more partisan fireworks and some attacks on the president including you should be more manly or be more like putin.

and that seems to have faded as the situation has gotten more serious. if you pop over the hill and google news and look for republican criticism of the president, it exists, but it's by no means as sharp as it was even two weeks ago. >> i agree with you, ari. i was at ctac a couple of weeks ago, and you heard them blaming it on the president saying he was too soft, he wasn't tough enough. i think as putin has taken over, taken more control of crimea, you've seen people acknowledge bob gates, former secretary of defense, other republicans saying the problem is putin, of course, not president obama. there was a good "new york times" piece that mentioned the fact that today bill clinton, george bush, barack obama, we've had three presidents really struggle to figure out how to deal with putin. >> but even as republicans and democrats start to coalesce around an approach and support ukraine and have sanctions on

russia, there's still a challenge of getting things to move through capitol hill. and right now, republicans and democrats are at odds over particular provisions related to the imf, correct? >> right. basically the white house wanted to include, along with $1 billion in aid to the ukraine. they also wanted to include changes in the imf in how it funds, how it helps developing nations in part to help the ukraine. but to republicans, imf is code for international bailout. that's the code they've used repeatedly. the imf funding is included in the senate bill, not included in the house bill. i do think, krystal, this will be resolved in the next week or so. but it goes to the fact that every issue that hits capitol hill becomes divisive when it shouldn't. >> there was a piece in the "wall street journal" that caught my attention. it was reporting that the u.s. intelligence officials are now rushing to expand our satellite coverage and strengthen our ability to intercept communication in both russia and ukraine. this comes after officials were

surprised by the plans to actually invade. something we should have been able to intercept before it happened. and one official said even though there was a warning, the u.s. didn't have the information to be able to say what exactly was going to happen. so, perry. what does this say about our current strength in this situation. when you have russia potentially jumping ahead of us by evading our own eavesdropping ability? >> there was a hearing a couple of weeks ago where john mccain made this claim and chuck hagel, the secretary of defense of not seeing the signs of the russian incursion early enough. the intelligence agencies have said they gave so far hinme hin talked about it, et cetera. also the state department, do we understand vladimir putin enough? are we assuming his motives based on how the u.s. perceives him or how he -- how we think he should behave versus the way he appears to be behaving, which is someone sort of rooted in the

cold war and rooted in making russia a bigger dominant rival to the u.s.? you're seeing also from congress, the president on down. and try to figure out why are we missing and misviewing putin's actions and how do we catch them in the future better? >> that's right. >> congress is currently debating sanctions, but it's really hard to make sanctions work in a situation like this when you have a nation that's so large with multiple revenue streams that cannot be cut off from the global economy like you could do with a north korea or iran or something like that. it's hard to make sanctions be your prime weapon in this situation. >> it is. i think the more important story is not what's happening in washington, what's happening where peter is abroad and where the president does think if we can dim the russians enough, kick them out of the g-8, more sanctions from european nations, as well. the idea is to really make the sanctions not just about the u.s. and pretty much every nation that deals with russia

and see if that has an impact. the u.s. and russia don't have that much of an economic relationship themselves. but if you can target every partner russia has, you might make the impact. like you said, russia is a huge economy, a huge nation, this is not like iran where our sanctions have crippled them and changed their behavior. this is a much more challenging posture. also because putin's views about what he wants to accomplish are much different. putin wants to bring bring rush russia back in a way that i don't think the president thinks about being. he imposed some on u.s. officials as a payback. he seems not to really care about the he's getting from president obama. >> potentially to relish it. he sees part of the power in being on a stage and on a scale with the president and other western leaders, even though we know that separate from economics, russia is not what it once was. thank you for your time today.

>> thanks, ari. appreciate it. >> you bet. now up next, we'll go back to one of the greatest mysteries in a generation. what happened to malaysia airlines flight 370. there are some answers and more questions. salesperson #1: so again, throwing in the $1,000 fuel reward card is really what makes it like two deals in one. salesperson #2: actually, getting a great car with 42 highway miles per gallon makes it like two deals in one. salesperson #1: point is there's never been a better time to buy a jetta tdi clean diesel. avo: during the first ever volkswagen tdi clean diesel event get a great deal on a jetta tdi. it gets 42 highway miles per gallon. and get a $1,000 fuel reward card. it's like two deals in one.

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which may cause kidney problems. if your pill isn't giving you the control you need, ask your doctor about non-insulin victoza. it's covered by most health plans. some brokerage firms are but way too many aren't. why? because selling their funds makes them more money. which makes you wonder. isn't that a conflict? search "proprietary mutual funds". yikes!! then go to e*trade. we've got over 8,000 mutual funds and not one of them has our name on it. we're in the business of finding the right investments for you. e*trade. less for us, more for you. the fund's prospectus contains its investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and other important information and should be read and considered carefully before investing. for a current prospectus visit www.etrade.com/mutualfunds. we continue with our breaking news coverage on a tragic day for the flight 370 families who were told this morning to expect that all lives were lost. and despite chinese and australian search planes spotting possible debris in the

indian ocean, the malaysian government also told those families the flight had sunk to the bottom. now, time is running out and conflicting information is pouring in from all sides. clearly a make or break point in the investigation. so now bring in msnbc aviation analyst john cox, a former airline captain and ceo of safety operating systems. john good to have you. >> thanks for having me abbey. >> the next few hours of the search will be incredibly important, especially since the battery of the black box has only so much time before running out. so what do they hope that they can accomplish in the next leg of the search? >> well, first and foremost, we've got to find the floating debris. it's out there and we've got to find it and once we find it then we can get the size, shape of the debris field and then take some very sophisticated computer programs to analyze the forces, winds, current, and any other forces that may be -- waves, for

example -- that may have acted on that floating debris so we can narrow down the search area on the ocean floor to find the main body of the wreckage. once we find that, then we can go about locating and recovering the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder. >> once we do find that main body of the wreckage and even some of the ancillary pieces of debris, what can we learn from that about what actually happened on board that flight to eventually bring it down in the ocean? >> well, certainly the investigators will look for physical evidence in the main wreckage, how the metal was torn, was it -- which gives you an idea about how fast it hit the water. how and what attitude it hit the water. you can get a lot of information like that. you can look, for example, as the air france accident from 2009, they knew early that the airplane hit relatively wings-level with a very, very high sink rate or vertical speed. we'll be able to learn some of

that information on malaysian 370 as well even before we get the voice recorder and flight data recorder up and read out. >> john, i think a lot of people at home are saying "why aren't we just tracking flights constantly the entire time it's in the air?" and i've been reading pilots and aviation folks saying "you can't do that, it's not necessary and it's much harder to do for the entire industry than you imagine." where do you come down on this now. should we mandate that all aircraft be constantly tracked? >> well, to do that you have two choices. you can either put radar around every place on the planet -- which is very expensive and very hard to do considering that basically two-thirds of our planet is water. so we have a system that has worked very, very well over decades, which is utilizing position reports either voice or data and the fact that we have one occurrence here, do you change an entire successful

industry over one event? certainly it's something we'll talk about an over the next ten years or so there is a system that is coming online that is much more automated and does provide more positive tracking. that would have helped in this case? maybe yes; maybe no. but the discussion needs to be held whether we need to move that timeline for this updated computer system tracking forward. that's, i think, something we as an industry will have to discuss. >> and, john, building on that point, is this a tragedy that automatically suggests any other reforms or is it, as far as we know right now, just tragedy? because one of the other things we've learned in covering this is that you had multiple people on the flight also who had fraudulent passport information and that's something where people said, oh, whether or not that's related to terrorism, does that require more scrutiny? is there anything else you think that comes up out of this? >> well, i think we always learn

something from these type of tragedies and that's one of the reason aviation is as safe as it is. recognize even in the face of this tragedy, i haveaviation har been safer so we've done a lot of things right over the years. and one is to take all the lessons that we can from a tragedy. are there some security issues that will be improved? yes. once we understand what happened to this flight, then we can ascertain if there's something that needs to be done to the airplane, although this airplane's been in service for two decades with a remarkable safety record. is there something it needs to be done in pilot training? is there something that needs to be done operationally? all of those questions will be answered once we understand what happened. >> i think we're also seeing some of the limitations of the black box which i think a lot of regular people thought, well, this will be the thing that will always come through and help us find planes and help us understand what actually happened in this situation we get, you know, only two hours talk time so we may not know what happened.

when they decided to turn, you can't find in the terms of the pingers after a certain amount of time. you can't find it in terms of it being two or three miles down in the indian ocean with the locator system. does it make you say that the black box may also need to be updated? >> no, actually. if you look historically, we have always been able to find the probable cause of these accidents, both the causal factors and the contributing factors and almost always we have found the black boxes. we have not -- this is a very, very unusual case. this is unprecedented. if you try to start taking realtime telemetry, you run into a wide myriad of problems. who has jurisdictions? who where is the information stored? how is it incrypted? and they're very, very complex questions. because we can doesn't necessarily mean it's a good idea. the recording -- the recorders, the use of recorders, has let us solve every major accident and

so before we move away from a proven technology, i think we immediate to think about it long and hard because this has been a success over decades. >> that's a really interesting point and, john cox, you said it best this weekend. you said the last time the world was this captivated by a missing airplane the pilot's last name was earhart. thank you so much for joining us. and more "cycle" right after this. can you start tomorrow? yes sir. alright. let's share the news tomorrow. today we failrly busy. tomorrow we're booked solid. we close on the house tomorrow. i want one of these opened up. because tomorow we go live... it's a day full of promise. and often, that day arrives by train. big day today? even bigger one tomorrow. when csx trains move forward, so does the rest of the economy. csx. how tomorrow moves.

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you've been watching "the cycle's" wall-to-wall coverage

for the search for missing malaysian flight 370, a search that has narrowed but is far from over. our coverage is far from over. it continues next with msnbc's alex wagner. stay tuned. malaysia's prime minister says flight 370 "ended over the southern indian ocean." but for devastated relatives, another chapter is just beginning. it is monday, march 24, and this is "now." >> this is a major development. >> we've gotten sad news from malaysia's prime minister. >> this is what everybody feared. >> according to this new data, flight mh-370 ended in the southern indian ocean. >> now they believe that that last ping would put it somewhere in this juncture. >> this will come as a devastating blow to those families. >> the past few weeks hav