to abandon. >> they don't have new ideas. that is my take away from this discussion. ezra klein, thank you as always for your time. >> thank you. >> that's all for now. i will see you back here tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. eastern. "the ed show" is up next. . good evening americans and welldom "the ed show" live from new york. let's get to work! >> after nearly 100 years of talk and frustration -- >> held no you can't! decades of trying. >> it's harming those people who need help most right now. >> we proved that this government, a government of the people and by the people, still works for the people. >> the bill has faced 50 votes in the republican-led congress to do away with it. >> i want to thank every member of congress who stood up tonight with courage and conviction to make health care reform a reality. >> let's repeal this failure before it literally kills. >> we can talk about who says

what but the facts will speak for themselves. >> it's a victory for the american people. and it's a victory for common sense. >> this is the first time in american his i health care is a right, not a privilege. [ applause ] >> the premier issue in the 2014 election. >> i believe it's a winner. it's a winner; it's a loser. it's a loser; it's a winner. that's all washington's good for. what are the facts? the facts are, four years, 50 votes. that's where we are. obamacare not getting whiskers yet but it is four years old and lives are being saved. this was the scene at the white house four years ago this past sunday. president obama officially signed the affordable health care act after a very heated debate in congress. after it was a hot election issue. four years later what do the republicans have to show for it? well, they have been fighting obamacare tooth and nail. this guy has put it up on the

floor over 50 times to repeal the law that was enough to get president obama reelected. you know what this is? this is a complete waste of time and taxpayer money. feel like you're getting your money's worth now? obamacare was passed by the congress, signed by the president, upheld by the supreme court. still not good enough. and the american people voted the guy in that brought it in 2012. still not enough! this is all the republicans have on the stable right now. and, of course, private companies now, the new twist, are suing the administration over providing birth control under obamacare. stores like hobby lobby -- well, they're just being infringed upon. they say their religious believes should exempt them from providing contraception to women. they want to discriminate. and it's in front of the supreme court. democrats are not impressed with these companies like hobby lobby, trying to exclude themselves from the law. minnesota congressman keith

ellison said "this case is scary territory for employees." >> let's step back from the whole obamacare affordable care act debate and ask yourselves what this would mean. do we really want a corporation to be able to have its own religious views and impose them on its employees? what does that -- what would that mean for our -- the separation of church and state? for individual libber any what would it mean about corporate person snood this is scary territory and people need to win. >> absolutely. the supreme court will be hearing arguments on the case tomorrow. meanwhile, after four years, eric cantor says he's finally, finally working on an obamacare alternative. cantor told members at a private meeting on thursday "house republicans will rally around and pass an alternative to obamacare this year." how about that? they're going to have a health care rally, that's what they're gonna do! they're going to rally because it's taken them four years to

put something on paper. i'd like to see this alternative from cantor. four years later and the republicans have yet to put anything on the table of any substance whatsoever when it comes to saving lives and reducing costs. here's what cantor's al tern stif going to have to compete with. no more losing coverage for pre-existing condition. and, of course, we're going to have free preemptive care. we're going to have no lifetime limits. we're going to have young adults on their parents' plan. these are four basics that i don't think cantor can keep up with. cantor would -- he'd have to keep on to the medicaid expansion as well. i highly doubt whether an alternative by the republicans is going to keep up with all of these things that have been good for americans. and as of today, as of today -- you know, i've got to apologize. hold it right there. i said some months ago that it was going to be five million people by march 1 and the "washington post" really took issue with that and i apologize tonight. there's another apology here. i missed it by 14 days.

damn. close. i know the "washington post" never really held anybody accountable for the iraq war, all those billions of dollars in predictions and all that stuff. but i missed it by 14 days. i apologize. as of today over five million people have enrolled in obamacare. by the end of march -- that's this month, a week from today, s son of a gun -- they're expected to have over six million. not bad. now think about this. remember back in october we were just going wicrazy with these stories on the web site. it was day after day. failure, failure. where is it now? we're closing in on six million. they wanted seven. it's probably going to be $6.5 million. not bad. a good day at the office for the numbers. one estimate has showed obamacare provided by health care for $13 million americans. this number includes young adults under 26 who are able to stay on their parents' plan, but that's no small number.

remember, we're in our infancy of change. health care costs are also dropping for the first time a long time. health insurance costs and medical care costs fell sharply in january. ding, ding, ding. how about that, mr. cantor? you got something that can compete with that? insurance costs fell roughly 0.4%. medicare costs fell roughly 0.1%. well, the numbers are going the right way. the facts are clear. four years later and obamacare, it's working. republican opposition to obamacare is based not in fact at all, or in reason. it's based in outdated partisan ideology. democrats need to embrace obamacare, don't be afraid to run on it in the midterms, don't pay attention to the predictions, pay attention to the results. pay attention to the numbers. explain that in a town hall meeting and they will be cheering democrats and make sure you tell them that the republicans fought everything.

from the economy to health care. now, if democrats run away from obamacare, they're going to be vulnerable, that's what i think. you just can't kind of, you know, embrace it. voters will go -- are going to sense that well, you know, maybe boehner was right with all these votes. heck, i can't even get my representative to stand up for the good. here's what you need to, i think, really grab. when these guys had the power, when they had the white house, the house, and the senate, from 2000 to 2008, the average single premium in this country in year 2000 was just under $2,500. $2,471. that's what it cost you back then in 2000. in 2008, the average premium was $4,704. it was almost doubled. so where were all these republicans trying to fix health care back then? they weren't. and the insurance companies were making a boat load of money and they still are, which is good,

that's part of the bill. insurance costs recently, well, they've fallen 0.4% in january and you know what? for the first time in decades we finally have this -- health care costs are going down because of obamacare. i know it's not instant and it wasn't march 1 and it wasn't back in early october, it did take some time, fact of the matter is, the more people that get covered, this chart is only going to grow correctly for americans, for families, for businesses. no matter what the republicans come up with, they are lying. all you have to do is look at their commercials. get your cell phones out, i want to know what you think. tonight's question: do you trust republicans to come forward with a better health care plan? text a for yes, text b for now to 67622 or go to our blog, we'll bring you the results later on in the show. for more, let me bring in congresswoman marcie captor of

ohio. great to have you with us tonight. >> great to be with you, ed. >> eric cantor all of a sudden it's been four years and 50 votes, they're coming up with an alternative. what do you think it's going to look like? >> i can't imagine it will be good. i remember when they with afraid to stand up to the pharmaceutical companies and they didn't allow us to o bbuy prescription drugs and allow people to save money and people are spending so much for more prescriptions all over this country so i don't think you'll see much from the other side of the aisle. democrats really created medicare, we created social security and, yes, the majority of us voted for the affordable care act. in the state that i represent, ohio, 79,000 new ohioans, people who did not have insurance before, people've changed their insurance plan have now registered under the new program. and people have until march 31 to select among many plans. they have many more choices. >> congresswoman, do you go home

and run on obamacare, on the affordable care act? >> you know what's happening in ohio? people are coming up to me and thanking me. i had a cup it will other day that had two children, both of whom had mental illness and they could never get insurance. they can get insurance now. >> so you run on it. >> you betcha. you betcha we run on it. and you know what? and people are going to find out, as one small businessman said to me, marcy, i can now get a plan! i had a $10,000 deductible, my wife and i, he's a shoe maker back home. he thanked me for voting for the bill. i think people are going to find that across the board if we can land a man on the moon and adjust the trajectory a bit, we can do this, too. >> what's your response to the supreme court case over these companies that are going to have the provide contraception? they say that contraception coverage, they say that it goes against their religious believes. >> well, i think people can hold to their own religious believes but the someone works for a

company and they want to select among a choice of options in plans, they should have the right to do that. not everyone will select that particular option but i think that should be open to people. and it's not mandated and it is by choice. >> why do you think republicans continue to waste their time trying to repeal the law? what has been, in your opinion, the mission of 50 votes? just to keep it out there in front of the public? >> i think it's political. i think that it's using fear rather than hope. we all -- those of us that voted for it, we voted for hope that all americans would have decent insurance. in the region that i represent, 75% of the families have fallen to bankruptcy and do so because of the costs of health insurance. they go health insurance, bankrupt, basically. they can't afford to pay their bills. this basically says there are no lifetime limits. if somebody gets sick in your family, it's not your fault.

and that we as a count droi this to build a healthier nation, to build a stronger society. we can get there. >> congresswoman marcy cap you are the, i know you represent the folks in lorraine, ohio. those are some proud americans and they speak highly of you. keep up the fight, i appreciate your time tonight. thank you. >> thank you. you know, people can register for a plan until the end of march, they just have to call 1-800-381-2596 and a navigator will walk them through the dozens of plans they are eligible for. >> navigators, all good. that, too, is what the republicans have chased out of the neighborhood in florida. thank you, congresswoman. appreciate your time. let me bring dr. cory abare, professor of lsu science centers. here we go again. it's been four years since obamacare was passed. how do you think it's going? and where's the flarj all the doctors who have a hard time with obamacare? how come all the doctors aren't quitting? how come we're not seeing all

the press conferences with the doctors if it's so bad? >> exactly. well, let's just say today i had a 23-year-old woman come to me and say thank you so much for speaking out for obamacare because she has insurance that costs $775 month, that's right, $775 month, and she has all of her preventative care paid for. so they can sit back and talk all that jacketty yak all they want but we know the real deal. people need to sign up real quick because we know we're approaching the date where we have cutoff so we need to sign up. >> have the providers -- has their world been turned upside down like the republicans love to portray? for lack of a better term, they really think that, oh, the doctors are really getting screwed on this deal, i don't know how they're going to make a living, if you listen to what they're saying. >> no, no, that has not happened. we know that the primary care doctors, if you want to work as a primary care doctor, this is going ramp you up to be able to probably make more money than you would have made before

obamacare. but let's take money out of the picture. let's just say that now people can actually get care and that when grow home at night as a doctor that makes you feel good because the people you couldn't provide care before before obamacare, now you can. that's what the altruistic person thinks. >> but there hasn't been a real financial turnaround for doctors? >> no, no. >> and that's the case that the republicans love to present. like your profession is really in a bind right now. you can't make anywhere near the kind of money that you used to be able to make. >> nos absolutely not. that's not the case across the board, ed. >> republicans say they're going to vote on alternative to obamacare. is there any plan that would compete? >> let's say this, one in five voters does not even trust the house republicans right now so you have boehner and ryan and cantor sitting around in their beer summit trying to figure out some way but we know february 21, i'll bring the facts, february 21 cantor said he was almost done, he had to cross ts

and dot is, now yesterday he said we're working on it. that doesn't make any sense. all we need to know is that they don't have anything, they can't come up with a plan that they can do together to fight obamacare so they will not be able to have anything that will be able to fight this because it is altruism. it's what needs to be done because people need health care. that's it. >> do you think that bobby jindal's ratings are poor because of what he has rejected down there when it comes to health care? >> let's just say, yeah. i can't even go into the fact that people are marching in the streets down here saying absolutely not, we need to accept the medicare expansion, if we don't people don't get taken care of, ed. >> dr. herbert, great to have you with us tonight, i appreciate your time and all your work. remember to answer tonight's question at the bottom of the screen, share your thoughts on twitter and facebook. we want to know what you think. coming up, mamzen authorities

believe flight 370 went down in the indian ocean. our panel weighs in on that. but first, republicans propose big budget cuts. congressman steve his roll joins me. more cuts than what they had before. we're right back. it's the little things in life that make me smile.

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larry knew the importance of preparing for retirement. that's why when the time came he counted on merrill edge to streamline his investing and help him plan for the road ahead. that's the power of streamlined connections. that's merrill edge and bank of america. >> social media action? join the ed team. let's go to facebook.com/edshow. tweet us at twitter and also ed.msnbc.com. also monday through friday noon to three on sirius xm channel 127 you can get my radio podcast at wegoted.com. ed show's social media nation has decided we are reporting. here are the top trenders voted by you. >> an elephant never forgets! >> the number three trender. romnesia. >> the president's naivete has

led to a number of foreign policies we've chased. >> mitt romney continues his attacks on the president. >> i think effective leaders typically are able to see the future to a certain degree. >> i'm kind of psychic. it's like i have espn or something. >> five years of the obama administration and our esteem around the world has fallen. >> but dems say he's forgetful on foreign policy. >> governor is suffering from political amnesia. what president obama has done is restore a working relationship. osama bin laden is gone, the war in iraq is over. >> i'm sorry about that, i forgot. >> the number two trender, shocker. >> wichita states season continues. >> wichita state is unbeaten no more. >> the wildcats played their best game of the season to take out wichita state. >> just shows a lot of work we put in. >> brackets go bust, again, as kentucky shocks top-seeded and previously unbeaten wichita state. >> for $15 million entering

buffett's billion dollar bracket challenge, their hopes crushed. >> tmz's guess at how warren buffett is feeling right now is probably fairly accurate. >> what a game. what a game. >> and today's top trender, a cut above. >> top house republicans are polling their members to see if there's enough support to pass a budget authored by paul ryan. >> the house gop's budget plan calls for even more cuts. >> it's going to take a little off the top. >> we have committed to putting a budget out there that will actually bring it to balance within ten years. >> joining us tonight, congressman steve israel of new york. congressman, always a pleasure. good to have you with us. a lot to unpack here. i'm glad mitt romney's out there talking for republicans to remind the american people that he was the loser not long ago. why are republicans working on another budget? they have to go take the pulse of their members to figure out how deep the cut's got to be.

what do you make of it? >> well, nothing tells you more about where people stand in congress than a budget. this election is going to be about whose side you're on and this budget is going to reveal what side republicans are on. they're on the side of the special interests. even if it weaken it is middle-class. so here's what you'll see, ed, in this budget -- you will see a budget that actually increases taxes on middle-class families and decreases taxes on the very wealthy. you're going to see a budget that makes it more expensive for people to send their kids to college, but also increases subsidies to big oil companies. why are the republicans doing it? here's why. because they're republicans. >> that is it. they can't -- they can't cut enough. they say that they're going to have it all balanced in ten years yet, of course, we're not very far away from them going after president obama to do something in the ukraine. mark my words on that one. and, of course, they'll want to do you have a sets on that, they don't know who's going to pay for it. that's the way it's going to be. now on the democratic side i'm curious about steny hoyer

calling for the ground work of a grand bargain. now, every time there's a grand bargain talk, we're talking about cuts to medicare, medicaid and social security. what kind of grand bargain would the democrats buy into? >> the only thing that we're interested in, whether it's a grand bargain or any compromise or middle ground is a middle ground that strengthens the middle-class. that's our economic imperative in this climate. and so we will talk with republicans and we'll meet with republicans but we are interested in a budget that is balanced, not on the backs of the middle-class, that makes cuts but to oil companies subsidies not to college affordability. if the republicans want to engage with us in that kind of big, bold compromise, one that strengthens the middle-class and doesn't ask the middle-class to sacrifice more so that the special interests get more then we're happy to have that conversation. >> congressman, it's your job to get people to run for the house. is the affordable care act a

tire around the democrats' neck? and i ask that because i keep hearing about fixes. i keep hearing about a little reluctance by some democrats to go home and run and run hard on obamacare. what's the instruction? what's the best playwright now? it would seem to me it's very obvious. >> well, the only reason that republicans are obsessed with the repeal of the affordable care act is because it's the only thing that unified their base, which is fractured, which is weak, which is fighting a civil war. the problem with their strategy is that a majority of the american people don't want the affordable care act repealed, they want it fixed where it can be fixed. they want it improved so here's what we're going to do. we're going to remind the american are american people that every time a republican house member says they want to repeal this bill -- and they've done it 55 times -- they're saying to you if you're a senior citizen your prescription prices are going up. if you're a young person you're kicked off your parents' insurance. if you are a woman with breast

cancer, you're back to the days where the breast cancer is a pre-existing condition. we're going at them for what repeal means. >> so is it -- the politically correct move, that's probably not the proper language -- it would just seem to me that it's going to be much stronger for the democrats if there is a unifying message that this is something that the dems are not going to get away from, the things that you just mentioned, and they're not going to shy away from it whatsoever and put the opponents on the defensive because they are the ones that have voted against all of this. they basically have voted to cost middle-class families more money with these votes. >> that's exactly right. and you know we're going to be focused on that, that republicans who want repeal are going to hurt the middle-class. where it can be fixed we want to fix it. and that's the american people want. they want common sense solutions and not this obsession with repeal that will be costly to the middle class. >> so the conversation in caucus is what? go home and run hard on

obamacare? >> conversation is talk about where improvements should be made that are a matter of common sense, push back against republicans and tell people exactly what repeal means and then talk about the broad range of middle-class issues. talk about this paul ryan budget that is going to increase subsidies to the biggest oil companies on earth but decrease federal support for students who want to go to college. decrease support for seniors. decrease the medicare benefit. those are the issues that the american people want us to address and they want our solutions on those issues. >> congressman, if we're on the chalk board, what do the numbers look like right now some of these seats? you feel comfortable about how many? >> we need 17 seats to take back for the house and stand between the middle-class. we'll have 50 and 55 republican districts in play. we'll defend about 20 to 25 democrats. too early to say where we'll land. we're building out an infrastructure that will take us through november. >> congressman steve israel, always a pleasure. good to have you with us. thank you, coming up, malaysian

authorities believe flight 370 crashed abruptly into the indian ocean. we'll have the details coming up in developments today. and later, numbers man nate silver predicts republicans have the upper hand in the november senate races? really? he can predict that far out? i know i should have predicted my basketball tournament seven months ago! what's he forgetting to factor in his n his calculations is? we'll have it. next, i'm taking your questions. just ahead, we're right back on the ed show on msnbc. when folks in the lower 48 think about what they get from alaska,

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(agent) i understand. (dad) we've never sold a house before. (agent) i'll walk you guys through every step. (dad) so if we sell, do you think we can swing it? (agent) i have the numbers right here and based on the comps that i've found, the timing is perfect. ...there's a lot of buyers for a house like yours. (dad) that's good to know. (mom) i'm so excited. our first question tonight comes from mar liebe. she wants to know "do you have any ideas for the democrats that will help get people to vote in the midterm elections"? i think you have to appeal to folks' common sense. it's going to take a lot of ground work and do a lot of door to door, a lot of town halls.

that's what i would do. and i would talk about work! do you think it's important to hire somebody that works as at least as hard as you do at your job or maybe two jobs? when it comes to work, this congress hasn't done any work! they've been the laziest and the least-productive congress ever. do you think they deserve the job? i would just hammer them on that. that speaks to everybody's sensibilities. we all have this feeling about work. gosh i'm working hard. you know, you can always outprepare and outwork your opponent no matter what the playing field is. these guys don't want to work at all. they want more days off. boehner has been the obstructor in chief. do they deserve another shot? no. our next question is from pat. "some corporations don't want to pay for birth control insurance for their employees. will they provide free baby-sitting services?"

no, they don't want to provide anything. bottom line here is this is all about discrimination. this is all about telling working women in america, yeah, you get the job, you're going to work for less and, oh, by the way, we're not going to cover your health care needs. that's what this is. it's a bunch of hogwash, it's dangerous territory. i mean, they're picking and choosing what laws that they want to abide by. it's election rejection is what it is. big call by the supreme court, but i think an easy one. there's a lot more coming up on "the ed show." stay tuned. we are right back. stocks slide across the board. the dow ends down 26, the s&p off 9, the nasdaq falling 50 points. twitter shares dropped more than 4%. the company's removing its hashtag music app from apple's app store. twitter hasn't explained the decision. and according to the "wall

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and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? welcome back to "the ed show." tragic developments for the families of passengers on flight 370. authorities say they believe the plane did in fact go down abruptly in the indian ocean with no chance for survivors. the prime minister of malaysia announced this morning there is new data from the uk's air accidents investigation branch. >> using a type of analysis never before used in an investigation of this sort, they

have been able to shed more light on mh-370's flight path. it is therefore with deep sadness and regret that i must inform you that according to this new data, flight mh-370 ended in the southern indian oce ocean. >> several ships are headed to the area where debris perhaps was spotted. the crews are using flares to mark the spots in the water. one is described as an orange rectangular object, the other a gray or green circular object. authorities say that this is the most promising lead that they have had since the search shifted to the indian ocean. joining me tonight, captain

keith wallzinger, a boeing triple 7 pilot on the civil aviation team for the spectrum group and cary walsh, salvage mast we are global diving and salvage. gentlemen, great to have you with us tonight. pilot, does this narrow or increase the chances for mechanical failure? how do you see it after today's developments, the new data that brought authorities to the conclusion that this was clearly the way this flight ended? >> well, it's really no new revelation. they've been searching this area for over a week now since the satellite image was showing objects floating in the water in this vicinity. it's simply become a little bit more clarified that this is definitely the area that they believe the airport might be found. it makes it less likely, in my view, that it's mechanical or

some structural problem with the aircraft because the aircraft would have flown all the way from the malaysia/vietnam border all the way to the southern indian ocean. if the structure had been compromised in any way, it would have been very difficult for the aircraft to have travelled that far. >> so you do not think it was mechanical failure or any kind of electrical issue on the aircraft? >> well, i can't rule that out and it can't be ruled out definitively until the airplane has been found and the recorders retrieved. >> sure. >> but it certainly at this point it looks not like a likely scenario. >> okay. how in the world could this aircraft have done this on its own if the pilots were incapacitated? i mean, this is just amazing to me. keith? >> well, it seems, again, the pilots may or may not have been incapacitated. as we've been saying all along, the pilots could have been acting on their own, they could have been acting under duress by

a third party or the aircraft could have been commandeered by a third party, someone who would have the technical knowledge and skills necessary to operate the aircraft themselves without the crew. so any of those scenarios is plausible at this point. >> cary walsh, if this plane is in the southern indian ocean, the topography underwater, how much does that play into the difficulty of retrieving the ever-so-important black boxes? >> well, it's going to play a lot into the difficulty. the area they're searching is gigantic and unless they're able to get people on the water and actually pick up a piece of debris and firmly identify it, that search area is going to be gigantic covering topographies and water depths. >> what kind of sonar technology would be used to find the debris

field and how wide could the cone go? what's the latest technology? >> several technologies. side scan sonar would be the first tool. side scan would be towed off the bottom by a ship traveling at slow speed. the sonar array would be given a beam pattern about less than a kilometer wide, towing along about four knots and they would be looking realtime at the data, looking for anomalies on the bottom. if they were to find something that struck their interest, they would do multiple passes over it to define what it is better. the next step up in sonar would be multibeam which, again, is a multipass technology that provides a 3d image out of a point cloud of sonar beta. >> kerry, is there a chance that since this is over two weeks now that some of the debris that might be picked up in the ocean, if that is the case, if they get to these satellite images -- i mean, it could be hundreds of miles away from where the debris

field is, isn't it? could it be that way? >> absolutely, ed. it's -- you know, if we want to draw a comparison to air france -- which i've heard a lot of people doing -- you've got to recall that air france, when it went down, they knew pretty much where the airplane went down. they had a 40-mile -- square-mile search area to start with. and they found pieces of the plane on the surface within one day, were recovering pieces off the surface. it still took two years to recover -- locate and recover the black boxes from that flight. >> wow. kerry walsh, tell us about the satellite images. it seems like obviously the pictures that we're getting released to the public versus the ones that may be highly secretive and sensitive, do you think that the way it was presented today by malaysian officials that they know for sure that there is debris that has been spotted from this aircraft? >> you know, that's outside my area of expertise by a long

shot. i would assume based on everything i've read and heard that they're using new satellite technology to track where the vessel was and they're looking in specific locations and it certainly sounds like the objects that they're seeing could very well be from the plane. >> keith, your thoughts on that? >>. >> well, the satellite image -- i'm no satellite or sonar expert but it could appear that the satellite imagery could be showing parts that could be of this aircraft but they're a few days old now and it's uncertain whether those objects floating in the ocean there would still be visible on the surface or not. >> from your knowledge of flying a 777, would it have enough fuel to go this far? >> it depends on the fuel load when it started. it started toward the destination of beijing and turned around and went completedly opposite direction.

depending on the altitude it was flying at, and i've heard various altitudes from 4,000 feet to 5,000 feet that the airplane flew, if it changed altitudes quite frequently it may or may not have the range to go that distance. but certainly if it spent most of the time at the higher altitudes, the fuel economy would allow that to -- the airplane to get that far, sure. >> captain keith wolzinger and kerry walsh, appreciate your time so much. coming up, nate silver's predictions for the midterm elections. why they could be as wrong as ncaa bracket picks. ♪

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welcome back to "the ed show." this is the story for the folks who take a shower after work. espn bracket guy nate silverman, a bold prediction in favor of republicans. silver in his new website 538.com delivered the forecast. >> republicans need six seats.

i'd say exactly six. plus or minus five. >> a 60% chance that republicans win the senate? >> something like that. >> something like that. i don't know who is going to win. there are 36 senate races in 2014. silver says republicans are heavily favored to take four seats now held by democrats -- arkansas, west virginia, south dakota, and montana. he says an additional four seats held by democrats are toss-ups like louisiana, north carolina, alaska, and michigan. he predicted only two seats currently held with the gop and kentucky in georgia are possible democratic pickups. i disagree with that. you may recall silver inaccurately predicted the 2010 midterms and forecasted a 62% chance republicans would claim the majority in august of 2012. those races brought some of the most notorious gaffes from the

gop senate hopefuls. >> as your u.s. senator, i'm not in the business of creating -- >> if it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. but let's assume that maybe that didn't work or something. >> i'm not a witch. i'm nothing you've heard. i'm you. >> nate silver's calculations are based on math and polling, but his predicts don't calculate whether the republican base has control of the party. and just what kind of candidates they're going to come up with and that they'll make no mistakes between now and november. bob strom joins us. bob, good to have you with us. well, silver, as ncaa march madness predictions are flawed. how can we trust him on this one? >> well, i think this is way too early, and he is way too deterministic. i give him the benefit of the doubt. i know two or three months from

now he'll have a different prediction. look, his reputation rests on the fact he not only got the presidential race right in 2012, he got the battleground states right. a number of other folks did that as well, but without the benefit of his secret sauce. as you pointed out, he got the senate wrong that year. said there was 61% republicans would take it. there are 55% democrats in the senate. there are a number of factors that are going to help decide this. are people, for example, going to perceive that the economy is getting better? it is. but is that going to become something that tafx public mood? that will affect the midterms. as you just pointed out, who the republicans nominate will affect the terms. and as you argued earlier, if democrats go out there and hold these republicans responsible for wanting to deny coverage for preexisting conditions or let insurance companies cut off coverage when people get sick,

then you're going have a midterm election where democrats could conceivably gain seats. >> he says there is a 30% chance the republican party could win big. what is your response to. >>? i mean, seven months out predicting there is a chance that someone could win big, a party? >> it's it's almost tautological there is a chance democrats could hold their own or do well in the senate. look, if you look at the numbers, the financial numbers, for example, steve israel, who was on the show earlier, and nancy pelosi have done a spectacular job in the house of raising money, outraising the republicans, raising record amounts. the same thing is happening with democrats in the senate. so i think that to draw these conclusions at this point probably get you a lot of air time. we're all fascinated by horse race coverage, but it doesn't tell us much about what is really going to happen. >> well, it looks like guy

cecil, executive director responded to silver's predictions saying in august of 2012, silver forecast a 61% likelihood that republicans would pick up enough seats to lame the majority. three months later, democrats went on to win 55 seats. how much weight should be put on silver's math at this point? i understand you say not too much right now. but i guess the way i look at it is that how can we predict anything seven months out because you still have a lot of obama care numbers. you still have the economy a long way to go between now and then. but we have such an unusual political time in america of obstruction. it's almost hard to predict exactly what is going to motive voters one way or another. >> and that's why silver has a moving model. if something changes, he'll come out with a different prediction. i think what is interesting about all of this is the attention it gets seven months out. we're just fascinated with knowing what happens before it happens. now, we could just call off the

ncaa tournament and say, look, nate silver told us who was going to win. so let's crown the winner now. except we would probably get the wrong result. we know in some cases in the bracket, we could certainly get the wrong result. and i think the same thing is true here. look, heidi heitkamp, she is now serving in the united states senate. so these numbers give the illusion of certitude. there is no certitude here. >> and with moral monday going on down in north carolina and the voter pushback on the vofrt suppression that has taken place, i think that's hard to calculate what's going to motive people to come out? it would seem to me that that would be a real motivator and north carolina might not be as vulnerable. of course, you have the supe pacs that can make things happen. >> the efforts at voter suppression backfired. people stood in line for hours to vote. i wouldn't write kay hagan off

when i look at the polls in north carolina. i think she is in a position to win this. i wouldn't write pryor off in arkansas. i think he is in a position to win. >> bob shrum, thanks for being with us. >> good evening, ed. and thanks to you for tuning in. tonight's lead, four years down and just one more week to go. we're down to the wire on affordable care act. the deadline is march 31st, and there is just one week left for americans to enroll in health care plans. president obama has been fighting to get to this point for the last four years. he has been defending the law, explaining the benefits, and pushing back against all those misleading attacks. >> today after all the votes have been tallied, health insurance reform becomes law in the unitedta