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primary importance important tomorrow, a tussle that will shape the mid-term elections. meanwhile, his 2012 bid briefly bucked the establishment. rick santorum said his big problem is to find a way not to push away blue collar voters. and in ukraine, dozens killed as the country cracks down on pro-russian rebels. what president putin might do next. good morning, it's cinko demayo.

may, may palooza, treat party test, whatever you want to call it kicks into a higher gear tomorrow. there will be a primary or runoff in 14 of the next 19 tuesdays between now and the middle of september. that includes every tuesday in may and august, which will include elections in more than two dozen states. in this first month alone, the big story is going to be the tea party and how they fare in their attempts to take down the gop. it will be a test of not on how the tea party is connecting with the republican voters but how it's helping its candidates, many of whom are running against much better funded competitors. we kick off with three primaries, indiana, north carolina and ohio. tom tillis has the advantage in this crowded primary has he tries to hit what is a 40% mark

in that state needed to avoid a runoff. tea party groups are divided. there's also a race in the third congressional district that flips the script a bit. ten-term congressman walter jones is facing an anti-war republican who is trying to portray himself in a race against a conservative. although jones is an incumbent, he says his opponent is the puppet of washington. and nebraska is a potentially critical test for the tea party, with everybody from senator cruz weighing in on the side of senator ben sassy but he's facing former state treasure ken osbourne who has support from key insiders inside the party.

another big race, at least half a dozen republicans are running for the chance to replace governor dan hideleman, who is term limited and can't run again. and an election that would pick the first woman senator in the state's history. an example of how keeping the tea party out of her race likely helps her in the fall. later this month we've got the big one. in may, maybe the biggest day in 2014 before november 4 itself, as voters go to the polls in six states, arkansas, oregon, idaho, georgia, kentucky and pennsylvania. our latest poll showed mcdonnell doing better with tea party republicans than establishment

republicans of late. if he gets over 55%, that would be an impressive showing for mcconnell. georgia's republican primary is jammed with seven candidates, including moderate republicans, like congressman jack kingston, paul brown. mitt romney cut a tv spot for idaho republican mike simpson. others are supporting his opponent, smith, in that primary. and conservative art albertson is trying to unseat bill sho shuster, head of the campaign committee. and then we have texas. and don't forget 41% of the gop in the state of texas voted

against the senator in march's texas primary. does that tell us things to come in kentucky and south carolina. one other thing to watch on that last tuesday in may, the lieutenant governor race which may end an 11-year career. for the most part, established republicans appear to have the edge and the professional tea party movement has a lot to lose. they talk a big game, put out a ton of press releases and seem to raise a decent bit of money. but there's been new scrutiny on how they spend that money. just a week ago, an analysis says less than 20% of what they spent actually went to candidates. expect questions about those expenditures to get louder and whether the organized tea party movement is dying, even if supporters are as fired up as

ever. keep in mind, there are a group of voters that are so aligned with the tea party. even if the establishment beats the organized tea party movement, they still have a giant chunk of primary voters who care about those issues. joining me now, two people who spent a will the of time on the mid term trail, dan balz and casey hu kasie hunt. dan, let me start with you. i don't really count nebraska. they were split between two conservative candidates and the movement went with the guy who had momentum. >> if you think about the contest, it's likely not guantanamo b going to be a good stretch for the tea party. i think the point up made is there will be greater scrutiny of these groups who purport to

speak for tea party activists. i think the other point is does the tea party continue to push the establishment to the right. i think there are two different dynamics to play out. >> you've gone to mississippi, you've gone to south carolina, you've been to a lot of the states. do you sense the establishment is trying to co-opt tea party supporters? >> i do think dan's point about the establishment going further to the right is something that democrats would definitely highlight. they would say that a candidate like tom cotton in arkansas, for example, is much more conservative than a republican that might have run there in previous cycles and he of course didn't have a tea party challenge. but senator lindsay gram is doing something entirely different. he's running as the guy who is

going to make washington make sense again. there's that tension are you running as an outsider, i think if you talk to senator graham, that's how he would explain what he's trying to do in his race. >> "usa today" pew is out today, it painted the same picture that the wall street journal painted, advantage republicans right now. we're about to kick off a slew of primaries. and you look at pew and they're making the case it's the best shape republicans have been in going into mid terms in decades. does this feel like '94 and 2010 to you? >> no. in '94 and 2010 our focus was on the big houses and you had so much in play. here the focus is much tighter, on a handful of senate races and yet the stakes, just as big as

they were in 2010 or '94. >> let me play historian for us. i think about the '86 mid terms. in some way you look at the '86 mid terms for ronald reagan and he didn't lose that much ground in the house but he lost control of the senate. it feels like maybe that's where we're at. there may not be a lot of shifts in the house but success or failure depends on the senate. >> the senate really is the whole game this year. we don't expect much movement in the house one way or the other. and the gubernatorial races are interesting but they're not on most people's screens. what happens in the senate will have a big effect on the president's final two years in office. and it will also be a table setter for 2016. >> kasie, you're on the senate side today on capitol hill. they're actually going to work for maybe three straight weeks before memorial day kicks in and then take another couple weeks off and then work for another week or two and then 4th of

july. not a lot of work to be done. but one expects harry reid and chuck schumer to do something to help their candidates. >> they're drawing a line in the sand of contrast and republicans are calling it their fair shot agenda and they're planning to walk through it over the course of the next couple months, issues like equal pay, minimum wage, et cetera. i think as far as the agenda up here on capitol hill going forward, it's almost entirely about the mid terms. >> dan, i want to pivot here a little bit to benghazi. the decision by the house leadership, i think there's a number of ways folks are looking at it. you can say house leadership had no choice. they think it's a huge scandal. if they didn't call for this, then has it been just nothing but them playing politics. at the same time, is this them

playing politics? is this about keeping the base happy in this mid term year? what do you see? >> yes and yes. >> a little bit of everything. >> i think it is a little bit of everything. the base of the republican party is very stirred up and continues to be stirred up. >> and they believe the worst in this conspiracy about the white house. >> yes, they do. >> and they believe it to the core. >> and there have been multiple investigations, multiple hearings. >> more than we've seen in many. >> yes. and now we'll go through another round of it. it kicks it over into 2016 and potentially kicks it into hillary clinton's potential. >> they mentioned hillary clinton's name about benghazi more than president obama. that to me was a tell. >> i talked to somebody over the weekend that they said it could be clinton because the degree to

which the right is after clinton, it could help her on the left. if she's under attack by the right, the democrats across the spectrum will be more forgiving of her. >> kasie, does any democrats on capitol hill take these set of benghazi hearings seriously, either in the substance or the politics of it? >> i get the sense that they are pushing this idea that it's just a rehash and we've been through this. i think that's part of why the e-mails that came out most recently have caused such a stir because now they believe it's something the white house is keeping held back. we were talking a lot about sort of this fight within the republican party. benghazi is an issue that unites the entire republican party. this is something lindsay graham can talk about which is part of the reason the volume is so high. >> i think benghazi is no longer the name of a city in libya. in many way for some

republicans. and it encompasses everything they don't like about this administration. dan balz, kasie hunt, thank you both. this is exciting, we have primaries every tuesday! at least you and i will be fired up. >> up next, the crisis in ukraine takes a new turn. and tdr 50 rolls out this week to the ultimate swing state. but first, cinco demayo festivities at the white house today. >> after my stellar 2013, what could i talk about? at one point things got so bad, the 47% called mitt romney to apologize. good job!

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it was a deadly weekend in ukraine. it's putting the upcoming election there in jeopardy. ukrainian troops have been, changing gun fire with pro-russia militia and they've been putting up huge barricades. at least 40 days in another city on sunday. the question is who is in charge. keir simmons reports this morning for me from donetsk. >> reporter: hi, chuck, good morning. the former u.s. ambassador to moscow is warning that war is looming. it is not war yet here, but it certainly is massive civil unrest backed by paramilitary. today here in donetsk, we spent

some time in the city's equivalent of city hall and it is astonishing. armed men in military uniforms roamed the corridors running this city behind barricades. in fact, paramilitaries backing russia appear to be running this entire region, building after building, taking it over in nearby and the conflict continues between those who are pro-russian and pro-ukrainian. yesterday we saw pro-ukrainians marching through the street there. earlier in the day we saw pro-russians break into a police station and free around 60 of their comrades. it is difficult to see despite the fact that talks are planned how some kind of resolution can be reached because the people we

have seen here seem to be preparing for a fight. chuck? >> that's for sure. thank you, keir. the ukrainian official is scheduled for less than a money. but top officials in washington are skeptical it could go on. >> we already see the play book of what happened in crimea happening what happened in eastern ukraine. it's time to impose tougher sectoral sanctions to provide support for the ukrainian military. russia is not getting the point they're violating the so-called geneva agreement. >> the ukraine has been dismembered. the election of may 25th has not gone forward. putin has successfully dismembered the ukraine. >> i'm joined by former u.s. ambassador to russia, mike mcfall. ambassador, can you respond to senator graham just now, what you just heard, his remark that he thinks ukraine has already been dismembered by russia.

what say you? >> well, of course if we remember that russia did annex crimea, let's not forget that because i think we have moved on and we just assume that's a fait de compli and ukraine is now fighting back. in the city of slavyanask, you've had more fighting this morning. that suggests to me the sovereigncy of ukraine has been invaded by the russians. >> there's a theory this is what putin wanted, to goad ukraine into a firefight as an excuse to cross the border. what say you on that?

>> well, i don't think putin's decided what he ultimately wants to do but he's keeping his options open. and most certainly one of those he need as pretext to go in. from the ukrainian side, though, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. if they don't take action, de facto those territories are going to vote in the so-called referendum and become more loyal to russia and if they do act, they create the pretext for russia to come in. both are bad choices. i think right now they've tried to reassert their sovereignty in eastern ukraine and we'll see if there's a response. >> do you think there's going to be two countries? >> two ukrainian countries? >> yes. >> no. i think there will definitely be a core of you've crane no matter what. the question is whether the three regions in the east and south would someday join russia.

i would just remind you, they are different out there than in crimea. crimea, 60% were ethnic russians. in none of three regions is there a russian majority. >> the president has been consistent he's not going to go more aggressive on sanctions until europe is with him. and begrudgingly, angela merkel has agreed to do something big if the elections are blown up. >> i think there might be a reason to do that if the europeans don't go along. i thought it was actually a good move by the administration and with chancellor merkel in town

when they set may 25th as a deadlines as opposed to just military escalation, which is ambiguous. there has already been military escalation in my view. they set a red line that there are going to be new sanctions. i think that creates pressure to get something done before may 259. >> all right, ambassador mcfaul, thanks for getting up early. >> thanks for having me. >> time for today's first number in our data bank. 12. in a state released over the weekend, rice said commencement should be a time of joyous celebration to the graduates and their family. rutgers' invitation for me to speak has been a distraction for

the community at this very special time. part of going to college is supposed to be getting opposing points of view. i just throw that out there. i'll be right back with an old political rivalry causing new problems in ireland. and our question, which former daughter had a daughter who became a governor? first person to tweet the right answer will get the on-air shout out coming up. hey. i'm ted and this is rudy. say "hi" rudy. [ barks ] [ chuckles ] i'd do anything to keep this guy happy and healthy. that's why i'm so excited about these new milk-bone brushing chews. whoa, i'm not the only one. it's a brilliant new way to take care of his teeth. clinically proven as effective as brushing. ok, here you go. have you ever seen a dog brush his own teeth? the twist and nub design cleans all the way down to the gum line, even reaching the back teeth. they taste like a treat, but they clean like a toothbrush. nothing says you care like a milk-bone brushing chew.

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haram officially took credit for the kidnapping of 24 girls. the leader said today he would sell on the market these more than 200 girls the united states, the state department, secretary of state john kerry said the united states would now more formally get involved in the hunt to go see if they can save these girls. >> turning now to the latest on what's been a surprising story in recent day. sinn fein leader gerry adams is free from custody after being held for four days on a four-decade-old murder case. adams urged calm. >> there can be no going back. there's no possibility of going back. peace needs to be built with determination and a consistent focus, but let me make it clear that there's only one way for

our society to go and that's forward. >> well, the adams detention last week opened up some old wounds in northern ireland where a fragile peace has existed since the u.s. brokered the good friday accords since 1998. police were questioning adams on the murder of jean mcconville, the widow and mother of ten who was kidnapped and killed, accused of being an i.r.a. informant. for years she's been on the list of those believed to have been killed but whose body who were not found. her remains were found in 2003. until recently, nobody had been charged in connection with her murder. last month, a 77-year-old former

i.r.a. leader was arrested and charged with the murder. and on wednesday adams was detained. police say they have new members based on i.r.a. members from a boston college oral history project. adams maintains his innocence but british prosecutors could still choose to file charges. adams has reinvented himself going from a spokesman and symbol to the irish republican army in the 80s to a peacemaker in the 1990s. >> the last opportunity was squandered, but there's another chance now and that has to be worked for. >> now, adams eventually ran for parliament and since then he's been a regular visitor to the white house and he attended nelson mandela's funeral last year. in 2012, sinn fein's martin mcguiness shook hands with the

queen during her visit to northern ireland. so the arrest comes at a sensitive time to sinn fein, weeks before local elections, the british prime minister has categorically denied that politics was involved in the detention. >> there's been absolutely no political issues involved. >> some claim adams' arrest was politically motivated. it was a concern congressman peter king echoed earlier today on "morning joe." >> i think part of this, joe, is that gerry adams' party, sinn fein, is going to win very big in the elections coming up in two weeks. and i think there's still elements, not the british government, i don't believe the british prime minister is involved but there are elements in the british security

apparatus who don't want to see adams score or achieve these victories. >> adams also addressed that allegation sunday but voiced his support for the police and he tried to tone down the rhetoric. >> i was concerned about the timing given that sinn fein is involved in a very important european election and local government elections across the island of ireland. i've never disassociated myself from the i.r.a. and i never will, but i'm glad that i and others have created a peaceful and democratic way forward for everyone. >> it's interesting, by the way, to hear peter king on this topic. of course he and ted kennedy before him, there was always a lot of particularly irish catholics in congress who championed gerry adams over the years, only adds to sort of the political intrigue of this story. we'll be following it as those elections get closer in northern ireland. we'll be right back with our tdr

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it's lost a little electoral juice over the years. it has just 18 electoral votes today, down from 26, as recently as the decade of the 60s. the state's growth is nearly at a stand still. they added less than 200,000 to its population. the u.s. at a whole grew at a rate of 17 times faster than the state of ohio. a significant number of people moving to ohio are coming from outside the country and they are typically headed to the city, districts steadily trending to the democratic column. but it wasn't always that way. hamilton county had long been republicans' ace in the hole in that state. that is at least until 2008 when it went to obama.

that was the first time hamilton county voted for a president since 1964 and first time it went blue since 1912. well, it did it again. the state as a whole is a fascinating piece of political patchwork. political analysts like to say there are actually five ohios. the northwest is primarily the auto belt, based around toledo, central ohio is based around columbus. it's now become a more democratic-friendly area, surrounded by republican territory in the wealthy suburbs. the southwest is around cincinnati, one of the swingiest areas of the state and the southeast is coal country, a appalachia has become a republican strong hold. cincinnati is on the short list of cities to host the rnc

convention, while columbus has been invited to submit bids for the democratic convention. cleveland is in the running of both, the only city with that designation outside of las vegas. connie travels the country as a journalist and as somebody who is watching politics and watching with a political eye as well. connie, good morning to you. >> good morning to you, todd. >> so let's talk about sort of where ohio is today. it's funny, about eight years ago when you had in 2000 gore pulled out of ohio famously about three weeks before the election to focus all his resources to florida, there was some question on whether kerry was trying to hard, that ohio was unwinnable. all of a sudden ohio bounced back to being a swing state again. there was this feeling it ever so closely was going to go the way of missouri and it was going to become where's ohio headed today and is it still because of

its lack of population growth a state that is leaning republican or is it going to stick to its state emphasis? >> i want to point out when kerry ran in 2004, he did not have campaign operations in about half the counties here. you can't run a statewide race without a very active campaign in every county, you see no votes. that was in part why i think he lost in 2004. when you were talking about the cities, i'm here in cleveland today and at the peak of cleveland's population, there were about 2,000 people living in the downtown area. right now there's about 12,000. there's been a real revival in the downtown city. i say that with an asterisk because we have our areas not recovered from the foreclosure crisis. we're seeing an influx of

couples and people who do not want lawn care. the inside the country number was interested in what you cited. they do tend to vote more democratically and that is a trend becoming a concern for republican candidates across the country. i don't see that being any different here in ohio. >> about four months ago i was part of a focus group just outside of cincinnati, just outside of hamilton county. it was very much a group of your typical swing voters of ohio. what i found interesting was they all cited two things to me that seemed to be at the core of maybe where ohio is going politically. one is they all said they thought the economy was recovering. they were feeling much better about the real estate market, much better about the economy and they were all still very angry about nafta. that surprised me more than anything that nafta still had this resonance 20 years later in ohio. many many ways i thought they were blaming nafta on ohio's

mixed economy over the last two decades. >> well, sure. because what happened when nafta was passed, we lost a lot of manufacturing jobs. they went to mexico and to china. and you are going to hear that because we are still very much a working class state and big chunks of this -- i come from that. i come from ashtabula county. i'd be curious about the gender breakdown in that focus group as well. because it's not just men who used to be able to make a living who will say that sort of thing or who had family members, it's the women who love them. i remember sitting on focus groups back in 2006 and hearing exactly that message. because when i grew up in a working class family, the father was able to support the family with good union wages. my dad was a utility worker. then my mom ended up going to work full time as a nurse's aide when they were about to send me to college. i was the first in my family. i saw even in my own family the

dynamic play out because even though it was absolutely essential to do that and my parents insisted we'd all go to college, something broke down to my father knowing he could no longer do it on his own. he's a strong man, a proud man. i see that all across the state. and when the money won't talk about it much, when you start talking to the women, that's when you hear those sad stories play out and i think that's where a lot of that anger is coming from. >> give me your sense of the economy in ohio right now. >> it's improving but not great. it's been a slow recovery for us here. it was interesting, two weeks ago i was listening to an npr story about housing and how more houses were becoming available for sale. the very next day i talked to a real estate agent east of cleveland and she said we're not seeing that here. there where they have pockets of weather, they're still seeing a

lot of short sales and flo foreclosures. you doesn't have to talk to many people to know you feel that pretty much everywhere. >> thank you, connie schultz. we'll be focusing on ohio all week long. and today's soup of the day is seafood chowder at don's pomeroy house. "start your engines" a man who doesn't stand still. but jim has afib, atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat not caused by a heart valve problem. that puts jim at a greater risk of stroke. for years, jim's medicine tied him to a monthly trip to the clinic to get his blood tested. but now, with once-a-day xarelto jim's on the move. jim's doctor recommended xarelto.

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e*trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. are you type e*? he was a republican who at one point was the biggest thorn sticking in mitt military's side. he's out with a new book. santorum says republicans like romney focused on so-called job creators and forgot to talk about the job holders. the book is called "blue collar conservatives, recommitting to an america that works." i'm joined by the former pennsylvania senator, rick santorum. there's no doubt that you and

mike huckabee, huckabee in '08, showed there is this socially, culturally conservative but blue collar populous out there, you figured out how to connect to them and that's where the disconnect is with the republican party. what's a specific policy agenda they ought to embrace, if they're not, that would help here? >> i lay out a bunch of them in the book. it's hard for me just to pick one. what really worked for me was to focus on blue collar workers. as you may recall, i ran around the country after having visited tayoga, north dakota with a block of oil shale and put it up on the platform and said this is the future, we need to be energy independent, we can for the first time in this country get, there we can create jobs, lower the cost for average americans and we can create a platform for manufacturers because they're the biggest users of energy. and then went into the

manufacturing. when you make things and create wealth like energy and manufacturing do, you create good quality jobs, you create spinoff jobs that come from that. for the 70% of americans that don't have college degrees, you create an opportunity for good, steady good steady work. >> and the minimum wage is the symbol of the debate back and forth, and it is interesting that you saw tim timilty make this argument on "morning joe" and look at this argument that he made connecting with the blue collar workers. >> and for the republicans saying that we are for the blue collar workers, and there are basic things to be for, aped one of them is reasonable increases in the minimum wages from time to time. >> and look, i voted for them in congress, and i authorized one of the minimum wage alternatives. >> any republican authoring the these? >> well, this is one they don't get. if the republicans want to say that we are against minimum wage, then go out to make the argument to the american public,

and the 80% of the public who believes we should have a minimum wage, but they are making an argument of why we should not get an increase, but what i am seeing, minimum wage covers 2% of workers, and historically, it is 7% to 9%, and what i have said, and i have argued it in congress, keep it in 27% range. >> and whatever the number is there. >> and whatever the number to get you to 7%, and if it falls back, look for the situation in an economic crisis, you may not want to raise it, and if it is better, then maybe you do, but don't make the argument that we are for the blue collar guy, but against any minimum wage increase ever. it makes no sense. >> trade deals? where are you on these? you have been a free trader, but these workers that you are talk talking to, boy, they hate nafta, and they hate globalization, they do. >> as i am sure that your good fact checking did, i voted against nafta. >> yes. in pennsylvania. >> yes, when i was in the house

of representatives, and i voted for some trade deals, and some not. you have to keep in mind that soom some i voted for, it was good for the foreign policy, and for instance the caribbean trade policy, and more of them is the policy because the impact of the country on some of the trade deals are is de minimis. >> and i want to get you more on tape about foreign policy, and the sort of retrenchment na going on, and the isolation. >> yes. >> and there is the book. i promised to show the book. there it is. i will be right back with the quick takeaway. these fit nicely. [ female announcer ] crest 3d white whitestrips keep the whitening ingredient in place, guaranteeing professional level results. crest whitestrips. the way to whiten. that would be my daughter -- hi dad. she's a dietitian. and back when i wasn't eating right, she got me drinking boost.

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time for today's quick takeaway. following the video with the fake veep julie dreyfuss gave a

speech at the expense of the other potential 2016er. >> it is strange to think that i have 2 1/2 years left in the office. every year, there are reminders that i only hold this job tempora temporarily, but it is a long time between now, and 2016, and anything the can happen. you may have heard the other day that hillary had to dodge a flying shoe at a press conference. yes, they are jokes and a standup routine, but my goodness, president obama had nothing but hillary clinton is taking over for him in 2016, and the subliminal messages in the routine, and whenever he does that, don't think that there are big people who are biden supporter supporters who cringe. he is not crazy about it. and that is it for this edition of "the daily rundown." chris jansing is coming up next.

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on the brink, the deadly day yet in ukraine as the spectrum of war looms larger than it has since the crisis began. is russia preparing to mount a wide scale attack? primary colors and we will head to north carolina one of the three states with a primary tomorrow, and the critical race to see who is go g ing to run against the vulnerable democrat kay hagan and the proxy is rand paul and jeb bush. and the jokers wild from the race to republicans and hillary and biden and what the president's punchlines tell us about the political plotlines in 2014. good morning. i'm chris jansing. and armed with the best jobs report in more than five years, the democrats are renewing the push for the 2014 fair shot agenda. >> we are push iing this middle-class agenda, and to overcome obamacare as the biggest issue, and minimum wage and e quail pay and college. >>