>> you wouldn't say let's go get a male on the show. >> no. we need more males. god, no. all right. if it's way too early, what time is it? it's time for "morning joe." now it's time for "the daily rundown" with chuck todd. have a good day, everyone. welcome to your primary day pregame. the biggest day of voting before november. kentucky's clash leads the way as mitch mcconnell and allison grimes talk like the general election is under way. we'll talk to matt bevin. we'll also talk to jack kingston about his hopes for a runoff in georgia and a look at why some notable '90s names want to head back to the house after so many years away. and does dynasty equal destiny? allison grimes isn't the only legacy candidate on the ballot, but how much can name sake knowledge pave a path to victory. good morning from washington. it's tuesday, may 20th, 2014. the day we've been waiting for for some time this year. this is "the daily rundown."

welcome to what is going to be my 2014 election home on these big primary days and election day. let's get right to my first read of the morning. polls are open now and the closest thing we have to super tuesday in this election year and control of the u.s. senate is really what's on the line in 2014. it will be defined by the battle for the senate. given the national environment, republican prospects of regaining control are pretty bright but there are two potential speed bumps and both states that have primaries today, georgia and kentucky. in kentucky, mitch mcconnell has waged a ruthless campaign to undermine challenger matt bevin's credibility. in georgia, it's the establishment candidates who are leading a crowd of republican hopefuls in the fight to take on democratic -- likely democratic nominee michelle nunn. unlike 2010 and 2012, it appears the establishment has the upper hand this year.

nowhere is that more apparent than in kentucky, where senator mcconnell appears poised to hold off matt bevin today. in fact he's already sounding like he's focused on the general election. >> this is why i'm running. i'm a small business owner. i'm a father. i'm a military veteran. i'm a guy who has walked in and is walking in the shoes of those of us that are here in kentucky. >> the president is going to be there until january, 2017. well, there's only one thing we can do about it in 2014. in 2014, you can change the united states senate and make me the offensive coordinator instead of the defensive coordinator. >> i am the kentucky woman who my republican colleagues have so generally referred to as an empty dress. that seeks to retire mitch mcconnell. >> well, there you go. bevin, frankly, has run a pretty

mediocre campaign but the math is also not in his favor. senate incumbents usually survive and once they have successfully waged one re-election campaign, they usually go on to more successful campaigns. long-term members of the senate are exponentially more difficult to defeat. of the last 17 incumbent senators who were defeated in their primary or general elections, just three had served five terms or more. that's what mitch mcconnell is going for here, by the way. senators like alaska's seven-term senator ted stevens defeated in '08 are by far the anomaly. of the last ten, most were defeated when going for that third or fourth term. just stevens, pennsylvania's five-term senator arlen specter and indiana's six-termer, richard luger, were the kind of decades-long fixtures on capitol hill that mcconnell represents. by the way, among those defeated incumbents, there are examples

of senators like bob bennett who never directly faced his state's voters. bottom line is the fact that mcconnell is likely to survive today is a sign, shouldn't be a surprise. the question is how do these bitter feelings and anti-washington sentiment play going forward in the general election? 25% of the kentucky republican primary electorate tells us they would cross party lines in a general election and vote for the democrat, allison grimes. so the question is will this anti-mcconnell vote stick through the fall? here's how important a republican loss in kentucky would be in november. let's look at the map. republicans right now are favored to pick up open democratic seats in south dakota, west virginia and probably with the appointed senator john walsh's seat in montana, probably defeat him in montana. if republicans are able to sweep those seats held by and you throw in -- able to sweep the seats, arkansas, north carolina, louisiana and alaska, that gets the gop to its net of six seats.

frankly it gets them to seven seats. then there are the list of republican challenges in places like blue states and some purple states. think colorado, iowa and michigan. republicans want to be in a position where they only need to win one of those states or maybe none of them. they would love to expand the map to minnesota, oregon, virginia or new hampshire. we'll see what happens here. here's the bottom line. if republicans lose in a georgia or a kentucky or both, it complicates the math. the more states they lose, the more they need to expand the map. a net of six becomes seven. then seven becomes eight. if you look at the map right now, there really are ten legitimate republican targets of democratic-held seats. winning six of ten, that seems reasonable. winning seven or eight of ten, if they lose in kentucky or georgia, a little less reasonable and suddenly you're not in a 50-50 situation. all right, we've got a lot going on in this issue of "daily rundown." it's primary day. we're going to go all over the country. time for our first number in our

super tuesday data bank. it's 168. that's the number of days until the 2014 midterm election. in case those of you are keeping track. as i said, we've got much more ahead on this big primary day. matt bevin will be here next. first, a look ahead at today's politics planner. mostly about voting. polls are open for today's primaries. by the way, if you're in oregon and haven't mailed your ballot back in, be sure to drop it off before 8:00 p.m. local time. also today, there will be a moment of silence in moore, oklahoma, in honor of last year's deadly tornado. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. ly off for me i've got a lot to do. that's why i got my surface. it's great for watching game film and drawing up plays. it's got onenote, so i can stay on top of my to-do list, which has been absolutely absurd since the big game. with skype, it's just really easy to stay in touch with the kids i work with. alright, russell you are good to go!

alright, fellas. alright, russ. back to work! intercourse that's painfulit... due to menopausal changes. the problem isn't likely to go away... ...on its own. so it's time we do something about it. and there's help. premarin vaginal cream. a prescription that does what no over-the-counter product was designed to do. it provides estrogens to help rebuild vaginal tissue and make intercourse more comfortable. premarin vaginal cream treats vaginal changes due to menopause and moderate-to-severe painful intercourse caused by these changes. don't use premarin vaginal cream if you've had unusual bleeding, breast or uterine cancer, blood clots, liver problems, stroke or heart attack, are allergic to any of its ingredients or think you're pregnant. side effects may include headache, pelvic pain, breast pain,

vaginal bleeding and vaginitis. estrogen may increase your chances of getting cancer of the uterus, strokes, blood clots or dementia, so use it for the shortest time based on goals and risks. estrogen should not be used to prevent heart disease, heart attack, stroke or dementia. ask your doctor about premarin vaginal cream. and go to premarinvaginalcream.com this is worth talking about. they say you'll never go back to your old cleaning ways again. not once you've tried mr. clean's new liquid muscle. it's a concentrated liquid gel with two and a half more power per drop. so a little goes a long way. new liquid muscle. when it comes to clean, there's only one mr. trwith secure wifie for your business. it also comes with public wifi for your customers. not so with internet from the phone company. i would email the phone company to inquire as to why they have shortchanged these customers.

but that would require wifi. switch to comcast business internet and get two wifi networks included. comcast business built for business. well, in kentucky, tea party

challenger matt bevin, appears to still have an uphill climb in his quest to knock off 30-year incumbent mitch mcconnell. but if he wants to get some inspiration, he doesn't have to go too far back. in 2010 it was another tea party candidate, rand paul, who nearly ran the table against the establishment candidate in that year, trey grayson. paul won 109 of 120 counties, running up a 24-point margin of victory overall, 59% to 35%. here's how he did it and here's how to watch the returns tonight to see where perhaps bevin has a shot if he overperformings. first of all, to look at rand paul, he overperformed in places like louisville and inside jefferson county and lexington, which is part of fayette county. then moving on, paul overperformed winning jefferson by 25 points and fayette by 32. in most of the largest republican-leaning counties, he

did equally as well. for instance, let's look at boone. davis, hardin and kenton counties along the indiana border and up to ohio. rand paul racked up big wins in all of them. 26, 29, 24. just across the border from cincinnati in warren county, rand paul won by 50 points. but it wasn't good news everywhere for senator paul. he had the most trouble in a pocket of republican counties further south that were closer to the virginia and tennessee borders. keep in mind we're only looking at the counties where there's at least 5,000 votes cast in the county. grayson didn't win any of the counties like that but did manage to hold down paul's margins in the southeastern corner of the state so that's going to be another place to keep an eye on bevin and mcconnell. paul's best performance in that region was pulaski county. he won clay and whitney by 12, laurel by 11 and knox by just a single pointi.

so what did fuel rand paul's victory? was it the taer party effect? was it a backlash against trey grayson and his chief supporter at the time, mitch mcconnell? does it show that there is still an electorate hungry for an anti-washington conservative candidate? joining me now is the kentucky republican challenger to mitch mcconnell, senate candidate matt bevin. mr. bevin, good morning to you, sir. >> good morning to you, chuck. great to be on with you. >> so here it is election day. every poll has you down double digits. some are narrow double digits, which your campaign touted yesterday, some have you in a deficit of 20 to 30 points. obviously you want to wait until all the votes are counted, but what's been the most difficult part of this challenge? >> i tell you, with respect to the polls, the only poll that truly matters really is the one being taken right now. it started at 6:00 this morning. it will end at 6:00 this evening. the voters of kentucky will decide who they want. you mentioned something a minute

ago. you talked about a hunger that people have. it's for more than just some type of change. people are hungry for someone who is real. they're hungry for something that is not the same plastic nonsense that has caused us to have such little respect for our political process and our political officials. this is what people are hungry for. i think this is going to be something to watch. what you will see are people turning out today who are weary of the mitch mcconnell of 30 years. there's a mcconnell fatigue that will be thrown off, i believe, in this race and time will tell. >> you have said that you think mcconnell is unelectable in november. that's one of the reasons why you have made the case to some republicans that they should support you. our own polling has shown one in four of your supporters say they'll vote for the democrat, alison grimes, and not mitch mcconnell. what do you say to those supporters of yours, very fired up about you, very upset about mitch mcconnell, who cross over and perhaps give the democrats

control of the kentucky senate seat and the u.s. senate? >> i mean here's the bottom line. neater i nor any other person is some type of a savant who mind melds into other voters. this is not something i'm going to tell people what they're going to do. if people are frustrated for having been said they're going to be crushed or frustrated for having been called the fringe or traitors, if they're frustrated for being told that they're going to be punched in the nose, that's their prerogative. and they'll take that feeling with them. what they decide to do at the ballot box will be their prerogative. i intend to win and render this a moot point. >> will you campaign for the republican nominee if it's not you? >> we're going to cross that bring after tonight. i will say this. i have never in my life worked for a democrat over a republican. i don't intend to start doing that any time in the foreseeable future. i certainly don't intend to do that in this race. but we have a lot of wood to

chop in the next nine hours and we'll let the voters decide what direction any of us go in starting this evening. >> you're not the only anti-establishment, anti-washington conservative swheemz to be struggling this cycle against the establishment. some people say it's tea party, some people say it's an anti-washington conservative movement. so i ask you, is part of it, do you think there is less energy in the tea party movement today than there was four years ago, perhaps because, say, the idea that washington in some perverse way has actually slowed down spending and that actually has tamped down the enthusiasm for the tea party? >> i don't know which deficit you're looking at if you think we've slowed down spending. >> annual deficit has slowed. well, the annual deficit has gone down. >> come on, chuck. you and i both know that -- unfortunately, it is the debt that's going up that is coming at the expense of future generations. we are literally mortgaging the

futures of our children and grandchildren and we all know it. both parties have been complicit in this. this isn't unique to any one administration or any one party, it's unconscionable. it is the career politicians in both parties that are destroying the fabric of this nation, that are saddling our children with debt that they literally will be unable to pay. this is what is leading to the enthusiasm that does exist out there. the people who are awake are looking for some kind of a change with respect to whether there's a difference in sentiment as it relates to this race and where we were four years ago, one big difference is that was an open seat. when rand paul ran, it was an open seat. i happened to be running for a seat with a guy firmly entrenched in it. he's been planted in it for some decades now. he has tens of millions of dollars coming from people outside and he's quite determined to do anything and say anything in order to keep that seat and that's something that we have to overcome and something we're going to overcome by 6:00 tonight. >> do you buy that mitch mcconnell is a conservative?

>> no. no, i don't. i don't -- listen, conservatives don't vote to bail out wall street banks with taxpayer money. conservatives don't vote for amnesty multiple times. conservatives don't vote for every single debt ceiling increase that comes down the pipe and then battle their own party to ensure that you don't cut anything in the process of giving president obama a blank check. conservatives don't vote to infringe upon the constitutional rights of americans and allow through the patriot act and the ndaa the indefinite detention of americans and the ability of the government to spy on law-abiding citizens. these are not votes that are cast my conservatives. mitch mcconnell has voted for and has been a strong supporter of all these things. he is not a conservative. he just pretends to be one every six years in order to try to trick his way back into the u.s. senate. that's pretty much what it boils down to, unfortunately, and the voters of kentucky are becoming weary of this. >> rand paul, would you call him a conservative?

>> i would say he's a conservative. >> then why do you think he -- why do you believe he supported mcconnell over you? >> have you listened to his support for mcconnell in recent days and weeks and months? it's a little less than convincing. here's what i'll say and you know this well. you've followed this arena for a long time. politics makes for strange bedfellows. rand supported and endorsed mitch long before i ever got in this race. to his credit, he's sticking with his word. he's a man of integrity. i think rand is doing a good job. whether people like him or dislike him, agree with him or disagree with him, he's largely doing what he said he would do when he went to washington and that's a refreshing change of pace on our political landscape, it really is. >> all right. matt bevin, i will leave it there. appreciate it. good luck on the campaign trail today. i know you'll be rushing around probably to a lot of polls so stay safe when you're driving around the state. thanks very much. >> thank you, chuck. i appreciate it. let's now turn to perry bacon jr., political editor for the grio who's in kentucky today

and has been covering that race very closely. so, perry, look, the expectation is that mcconnell wins. i think the question is what is his number, how strong is the anti-mcconnell fervor. by the way, what does turnout look like today? low turnout is not good news for mcconnell, i assume? >> yeah, low turnout probably favors bevin. bevin said this himself. both campaigns view it this way, the bevin supporters are probably a little more intense so if you have a low turnout in the 15% to 20% range, bevin will be closer. if you get to 32%, which is about where the turnout was in 2010 when it was paul against grayson, i think you'll see mcconnell with a bigger victory. the question here is does bevin break 40% or not. that's what people are looking at. it's hard to see bevin winning unless turnout is low but it's possible to see him getting 40% and that would send a signal a

lot of conservatives are flustered with mcconnell here in kentucky. >> i'd be surprised if he didn't get 40 if you think about john cornyn against a bunch of nobodies can't break 60 in texas. now let's look to the general election. mcconnell still has a ton of cash on hand. alison grimes does too. she's been able to sort of hold back. knowing the mcconnell campaign i think the way i know them, the election for them starts today and tomorrow. my guess is it's going to be very aggressive very quickly, that this will feel like a general election. this will feel like october, say, in a week. >> i do too. you already saw mcconnell yesterday start talking about barack obama and how close grimes is to her. he's started a little bit but i think by wednesday if not tonight, he's already not mentioning bevin on the campaign trail and focused on grimes already. the question will be for grimes, she's went on this bus tour and

her schedule is pretty thin in terms of what she's doing coming up next. my sense is that may be a mistake. she probably needs to figure out how does she change the dial -- mcconnell will be very aggressive against her very early. the question is how does she deal wkt and respond to that. she's been running nine months against herself and this is going to change really, really quickly. >> perry bacon in kentucky for us. thanks very much. this is going to be a contest. in the first two months to define this race, is it going to be a referendum on mcconnell, that's what mcconnell wants to stop. he wants to make this a choice election and put alison grimes in the spotlight. is she prepared for that battle to define her. keep an eye on this. the next 60 days i think will decide this race more so perhaps than the last 60. coming up, more candidates. congressman jack kingston will be here to talk about his hopes for making the senate runoff isn't georgia. we'll also talk to brian smith in idaho. but first, today's tdr 50 trivia question. as you know the tdr 50 train is

in kentucky this week. the most recent kentucky senator to serve as both senator majority leader and senator minority leader. who is it? mcconnell hopes to become the second one. the first person to tweet the correct answer will get the on-air shoutout. the answer is coming up in three minutes. you, my friend are a master of diversification. who would have thought three cheese lasagna would go with chocolate cake and ceviche? the same guy who thought that small caps and bond funds would go with a merging markets. it's a masterpiece. thanks. clearly you are type e. you made it phil. welcome home. now what's our strategy with the fondue? diversifying your portfolio? e*trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. are you type e*? ugh. heartburn. did someone say burn? try alka seltzer reliefchews. they work just as fast and taste better than tums smoothies assorted fruit.

mmm. amazing. yeah, i get that a lot. alka seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. and i felt this horrible pain on one side of my back. i saw this red, blistery, rash i had 16 magic shows to do. i didn't know how i was going to be able to do these shows with this kind of pain that i was in. i told my wife what i had. she went on the internet and said "i think you have shingles." i could feel the shock in my back and it was like "wow its got to get better than this or i'm in big trouble."

but at xerox we've embraced a new role. working behind the scenes to provide companies with services...

like helping hr departments manage benefits and pensions for over 11 million employees. reducing document costs by up to 30%... and processing $421 billion dollars in accounts payables each year. helping thousands of companies simplify how work gets done. how's that for an encore? with xerox, you're ready for real business. time for our next number in today's data bank, it's 13. oregon became the 13th legal victory in a row for same-sex marriage supporters since the u.s. supreme court overturned part of the defense of marriage act last year. yesterday a federal judge in oregon overturned the state's ban on gay marriage. dozens of couples were married in ceremonies across the state last night as couples rushed to tie the knot. oregon joins 17 other states plus the district of columbia, where same-sex marriage is legal. a federal judge is expected to

issue a ruling on pennsylvania's same-sex marriage ban later today. up next, we're digging into the down ballot races. it's not all about the senate. we'll talk to the tea party candidate trying to unseat an ally of speaker boehner's. plus the names from the '90s that are trying to make a comeback. it's classic political rock time on "the daily rundown." we'll be back in three minutes. a pretty difficult thing to do. but, manufacturing in the united states means advanced technology. we learned that technology allows us to be craft oriented. no one's losing their job. there's no beer robot that has suddenly chased them out. the technology is actually creating new jobs. siemens designed and built the right tools and resources to get the job done.

nc wt nc ] #2i ev t ies arat ou kouy yo clth thppn ye foge tum trwith secure wifie for your business. it also comes with public wifi for your customers. not so with internet from the phone company. i would email the phone company to inquire as to why they have shortchanged these customers. but that would require wifi. switch to comcast business internet and get two wifi networks included. comcast business built for business.

woman: welcome to learning. spanish in the car.c on. passenger: you've got to be kidding me. driver: this is good. woman: vamanos. driver & passenger: vamanos. woman: gracias. driver & passenger: gracias.

passenger: trece horas en el carro sin parar y no traes musica. driver: mira entra y comprame unas papitas. vo: get up to 795 miles per tank in the tdi clean diesel. the volkswagen passat. recipient of the j.d. power appeal award, two years in a row. let's go down the ballot on this primary day. we've got tea party clashes, pro-choice push, fight to thin the field on the way to the pennsylvania governor's mansion. let's start in pennsylvania. republican tom corbett is probably the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country this election season. there are four democrats that are trying to get the nomination because they think they're going to be the next governor of pennsylvania. but businessman and self-funder, tom wolf, is the one with the double-digit lead. he came from nowhere over the

last six months and now according to a poll published last week he's on his way to a fairly easy victory. his closest competitor, allison schwartz. they focused on the ground game and vote rich philadelphia. all four candidates spent time yesterday shaking hands at train stations and shopping mauls. one or four of pennsylvania's democrats is expected to vote and many of them live in that philadelphia media market. the excitement over the governor's race could boost the democrats' hopes to fill a couple of house seats. allison schwartz 13th district is one the democrats feel pretty confident they'll hold. who's the nominee? former congresswoman and now clinton in-law, marjorie margoleis hopes to get that seat. her opponent have been trading barbs over abortion. here she is yesterday talking about the issue right here on tdr. >> he is not pro-choice and it is a litmus test and he fails

it. >> so you think it's the most important issue now in this primary in the closing days? >> i think it is. >> the other primary i'm watching closely is in pennsylvania's ninth district. it's an incumbent from a political powerful family trying to fight off a tea party challenge from art halvorson. she said he's the most authentic conservative but bill shuster just became chairman of the transportation panel. he's in the middle of trying to push highway legislation through congress. "the washington post" reports shuster has aired almost $700,000 of local tv ads. the congressman's father is the famous bud shuster who headed the same transportation committee two decades ago and he's been campaigning with his son leading up to today's primary. the ninth district is rural, 97% of its population is white, but this is about spending and the tea party. out west we've been covering a serious establishment versus tea party battle in the race in

idaho's second congressional district. one of speaker boehner's allies, congressman mike simpson, goes into today's voting with what appears to be a decent lead over his challenger, bryan smith. the center for responsive politics reports this race was the most expensive contest in the country. outside groups bankrolled both sides with ads like this one for incumbent mike simpson. but the club for growth pulled back and haven't aired a tv ad since april, even though they wanted to make this their signature challenge of the 2014 cycle. it's a sign that simpson's backers are feeling more comfortable today and it could be bad news for the tea party's bryan smith going into today's voting. meanwhile smith has been hammering simpson with ads calling him a liberal and accusing the incumbent of supporting a scheme to give amnesty to illegal aliens. well, i'm joined now by bryan smith. he's campaigning early this morning out there in idaho and joins me now on the phone. so, mr. smith, i want to ask you, you've labeled mike simpson

a liberal. do you really think idaho republican voters think of mike simpson and think, boy, this is a guy that sides with barack obama. >> well, chuck, thanks for having me on your show. i can assure you as the idaho voters get informed about congressman simpson's voting record, more and more people do begin to see that he is just too liberal for idaho. so, for example, when it comes to funding barack obama's welfare economy or his overall economy, last october barack obama was demanding a debt ceiling increase without any cuts in spending. if you look at idaho's congressional delegation, both senators and congressman stood up against barack obama, fought against giving him a blank check and letting him kick our financial kn down the road, where as congressman simpson, he simply was the odd man out. he did not stand up against barack obama. he allowed the debt ceiling to

be increased without any cuts in spending. and that's just too liberal for idaho. it's also the case that he's also funded nancy pelosi park in the presidio in san francisco. >> is this a fireable offense? there are parks funded all over the country all the time in congress. their post office is named so because one is named after nancy pelosi, that's a fireable offense? >> but you've got to look at the facts. congressman simpson joined with only ten republicans in funding a $24 million park. 224 republicans voted against that. for me that's just too liberal and for idaho voters, that's just too liberal. but that's just one of many offenses. congressman simpson was one of only three republicans who voted in favor of funding a.c.o.r.n. 230 republicans voted against that and that's just too liberal. >> let me ask you this, the club for growth has made it clear

that they're letting a lot of washington reporters know, hey, we haven't been spending any money in this race in a while. they were instrumental in supporting your bid early. mike simpson was the poster child and you thought you were going to get their support. are you disappointed that they pulled out of this race about a month ago? >> i can tell you that we have been very active in fund-raising. people have been contributing to our campaign from across the country. we have had terrific fund-raising numbers the last six weeks. we did better the last six weeks than we did the prior 12 weeks in the fund-raising quarter. >> so why did they pull out? what explains that? if your campaign has been doing so well, why do you think they made the decision to just pull up stakes? >> well, you'd have to ask club for growth how they figure out how they stay in and out of races. we just know that as we continue to give our message, that idaho

has an opportunity to send a true conservative back to washington, it's resonating with the people across idaho and we fully expect to prevail, especially as our grassroots organization gets out and brings people to the polls. >> bryan smith, i will leave it there. good luck at the polls today. stay safe on the campaign trail and we'll be watching the race closely. so, to talk more about the down ballot races and some of the other stuff that's not kentucky senate today, political reporter amy walter and chris cillizza. >> i was told we were talking kentucky senate. >> very quickly i want to jump to some of the other house races but in idaho there's been an interesting player in these races and it's been mitt romney. mitt romney has been enormously helpful in his endorsement of mike simpson. he jumped out for monica webbe. it's interesting that romney has been so comfortable doing that, being and acknowledging that he's the symbol of the establishment, right, chris?

>> i agree with you. and i think for a party that really -- if you say who's the leader of the republican party right now, probably by default it's still romney. >> that's what consultants have noticed, right? when you have to prove somebody is a republican, they had to go grab romney. >> so particularly in a state like idaho, i think he is to the extent there's a party elder or party leader who's visible to the rank and file, it's him. >> '90s flashback, amy, i know you listen to the '90s station all the time on sirius xm, pretty much the only one, so we've got bob barr, marjorie margoleis, they can so 0-2. >> especially when your district looks a little different than it used to. for both of them the districts are different and the issues are a lot different than when they left. the fact that bob barr is seen as the moderate is amazing to think about. >> he's sort of the libertarian.

>> he's not the bob barr -- when we knew bob barr in the '90s, he was as far to the right as any tea party candidate is today. >> right. >> and now he's seen as, well, he's part of the old establishment. same with marjorie. the thing was when she had that district, that was a republican-leaning district. she could be -- she was a original sort of new democrat. >> centrist democrat. and she's probably going to come up short. >> because the district has philly and montgomery county. she was a montgomery county candidate. she's a suburban and philly is going to get that vote out and that's what makes it tough for her. >> one of the states that's on the primary ballot but has no action in some ways is arkansas. >> right. >> but it has a ton of action in the fall. i keep reminding people, you know, one of the nominees for congress for the democrats is going to be a former fema director, james lee witt. the first district democrats are targeting, the second district,

tim griffin running for lieutenant governor. three of the four seats are open, all three competitive. the governor's race is competitive, the senate race is competitive. arkansas might be the single most important cog in 2014. is it? >> you know what's fascinating about it, chuck, is that i think when i first started covering politics, you look 8 and say how are there still so many democrats in that delegation or in the senate. and now you look at it and it's the exact opposite. >> democrats are so competitive. >> but they're still competitive. which is absolutely -- which is absolutely fascinating. because i would say i think that i fell down this hole too quickly. that mark pryor was blanche lincoln. he clearly has more resilience. it's still a really tough race but yeah, you would not say -- at a presidential level i don't think we'll say it all comes down to arkansas. >> no. >> but in this kind of midterm election with that turnout with the candidates they have nominated too, mike ross and the governor's race, former member

of congress. >> blue dog. >> the kind of democrat that can win there. >> but if they can't win there -- >> who can win there. >> do we say if we can't get pryor and ross and james lee witt then we can't get anything. >> the single weapon for pryor to save him is the governor's race has money, the ccc will pour in money. it is the one state where there truly are three entities with their own agendas that all need to have money in there. >> every democrat in arkansas will be i.d.ed to vote. the problem is will they vote. >> an old pal of mine looked at what we did on dynasties and he said i think what chuck is trying to say is that democrats didn't have these famous names on the ballot, the senate would already be gone. he was referring to pryor, landrieu, but also nunn. >> alison grimes. >> alison grimes. it is interesting. in the red states, the local political brand democrats hope

is going to trump the national -- >> just imagine if you didn't have retirements in west virginia and iowa, we wouldn't be talking about those races too. >> and montana too. >> montana, thank you. just imagine had landrieu and bagich decided to retire -- >> then they'd be at four. they'd only need two. >> and so that's the question. how do you -- we talk about this every midterm election. how can you localize a race when the national wins are blowing so against you. and one way to do it is, okay, you know me, you know my family, you know i'm not part of this national crowd back here, but it's still hard to do when you have -- it's almost like day after day after day something else battling. >> kay hagan, freshman senator, in a little better state than many of these people. >> oregon, do you buy that it's a competitive state in the fall between health care exchange?

does monica webbe have too much of this personal business coming at her even if she survives because of the mail-in nature of the thing. do you buy it? >> if monica webbe is the nominee, i think republicans will talk somewhat about putting money there. i think that's a -- if that's a competitive race, republicans are talking about 53, 54, 55 seats. she is not a majority maker. >> and oregon is the new jersey of the west. where it's very, very close. >> it looks like you can do it on the numbers. >> chris dudley. he could get there. >> are you talking about a basketball game? >> 47% free-throw shooter. >> i've got to leave it there. time for the next number in. 245. this is a new goal that house republicans have decided to set this year for november. you know, six months ago they said winning in november was simply keeping the majority. now political reports this morning that the nrcc chair has

briefed speaker boehner on his plan to increase the house republican majority. to be successful, republicans would need to net 13 seats to get to 245. it would be the biggest majority they have ever had and a bigger majority than 2010 when they had 242 seats. part of this strategy is about the 2016 insurance policy. a lot of house republicans are concerned that if somehow democrats win a few seats here and net a few, then the house truly is in play in a presidential year. so that's what this goal is about. the nrcc needs a fund-raising target. up next, georgia's jack kingston on how he's hoping to do that and how it is running with your first name congressman. ou primary soup of the day comes from lexington, kentucky, where they're serving up warm potato leak soup at dudley's on short. we're not talking about chris dudley. we'll be right back. i got this.

[thinking] is it that time? the son picks up the check? [thinking] i'm still working. he's retired. i hope he's saving. i hope he saved enough. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. whether you're just starting your 401(k) or you are ready for retirement, we'll help you get there.

the numbers are impressive. over 400,000 new private sector jobs... making new york state number two in the nation in new private sector job creation... with 10 regional development strategies to fit your business needs. and now it's even better because they've introduced startup new york... with the state creating dozens of tax-free zones where businesses pay no taxes for ten years. become the next business to discover the new new york. [ male announcer ] see if your business qualifies.

become the next business hey there can i help you? york. (whispering) sorry. (whispering) hi, uh we need a new family plan. (whispering) how about 10 gigs of data to share and unlimited talk and text. (whispering) oh ten gigs sounds pretty good. (whispering) yeah really good (whispering) yeah and for a family of 4 it's a $160 a month. what! get outta here! (whispering) i'm sorry are we still doing the whisper thing? or? (whispering) o! sorry! yes yes! (whispering) we'll take it.

well, in georgia, today is just part one of what's going to be a two-part primary deal. you're going to have to mark your calendar for a july 22nd runoff. that's also my mother's birthday so i really won't for the it. but the big question is this, will the two most establishment friendly candidates be battling it out over the next two months or will there be a true tea party/establishment split. here's what to watch for in the returns tonight. the best malls that i've been using is the 2010 republican race for governor. here's the total turnout we expect, about 680,000 republicans. that's who turned out in 2010. will that number reach there? of course the 2010 republican primary is very similar to this senate primary. very crowded, had a runoff. this is how the current governor won that runoff, it was a bitter battle, went into overtime as you saw with different factions of the republican party fighting each other out on that front. but it was -- does get us a

general guide. as you see here, and a reminder of how many times runoff politics works, karen handel, who's also running and third in some of these polls, she actually came out on top in 2010 and she was at the time the only woman in the race. she raised significantly less money at the time than her three other opponents but she was able to sort of win by campaigning against the good ole boys and she took advantage of their ethical trouble, so she got that 34%. diehl narrowly was second. there was a time we weren't sure he was going to make the runoff. he managed to pull off a narrow win as handel stalled. he barely won, 3,000 votes. so tonight as the returns come in, what do you want to watch for? the biggest place to watch for is the wagon wheel of counties around atlanta. this is where most of the republican primary vote is. but particularly the one i would focus on is suburban cobb county. it's a republican strong hold

there northwest of atlanta. in 2010 handel beat her opponents 2-1. also keep your eyes on gwyneth county which was a bellwether county in 2010. the exact order of finish is what gwinnett had there. diehl had a little more of a foothold in that county and allowed him to overperform a bit and sneak into the runoff. ultimately you just watch those two counties and you'll know who makes the runoff. that brings us to today's republican race for the u.s. senate. joining me from capitol hill, republican congressman jack kingston. congressman, good morning to you, sir. >> good morning to you guys. >> so, you know, we're all characterizing this as establishment versus tea party and you and david purdue, karen handel on one end of the spectrum. are we oversimplifying this in your mind? >> well, i think you are because the georgia republican primary

base right now is somewhat split up. it's a lively dynamic conservative family, if you will, and it's very hard to pin down the whole electorate in a few labels. and hard to pin dow the whole electorate in a few labels. we work hard on the grass roots basis and we do really well in south georgia and we have an office in gwinnett county, and we have had more people than we can accommodate vol untooering to make the phone calls there, and we are here, there, and everywhere, and so the party right now. there is nobody who is fewer establishment or tea party, because it is hybrids. >> and what do you think of the name there? >> well, i take public service seriously. i have been out in the public and had lots of otownhall meetings, and people have seen me over the years and returned

the phone calls and sat down with the people, and solved problems with them, and so pushing that is a lot better than saying that i have anything to do with washington, d.c., but the reality is that i have gone home every single weekend that i have been to washington and i have never gforgotten what the georgia values are, and not washington values. >> and so i will ask you the same question as the leader mitch mccobble connell -- >> and you will get the same answer. >> why won't you say that you can support him right now? as your president? >> because i am going to the senate to change the status quo, and we can't stay where we are, because i don't want the republicans to take over, but i want to reverse the course of america and i have a six-point plan which is similar to the contract with america having to do with the jobs and fiscal

responsibility and strong national defense and i want to sit down with whoever wants my vote for the senate leadership and sign off on the plan, because i am not going over there to hold a gavel, we have to absolutely change the status quo, and i have a plan to do it. >> so it sounds like you are not going to support mitch mcconnell. sounds like not. >> well sh, he would be inclineo support a commonsense plan that talks about fiscal responsibility to protect the overreach, and protect jobs in america, but i want people on board with what i is see that america needs to do in the right direction. >> all right. jack kingston if you are w wondering is in washington because of the votes in congress and i imagine that he has already cast his vote, and georgia is on the primary watch today. >> thank you. and now, alvin berkeley is the only kentuckian to serve as the majority and the minority

leader in the senate. obviously, mitch mcconnell would like to join him. and we will talk to joy ann when we come back. [ male announcer ] prilosec otc is the number one doctor recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 8 straight years. one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. frequent heartburn medicine for 8 straight years. allthat's it?go out to dinner. i mean, he picks up the tab every time, which is great... he's using you. he probably has a citi thankyou card and gets 2x the points at restaurants.

huh the citi thankyou preferred card. now earn 2x the points on dining out, with no annual fee. go to citi.com/thankyoucards

honestly, the off-season isn't i've got a lot to do. that's why i got my surface. it's great for watching game film and drawing up plays. it's got onenote, so i can stay on top of my to-do list, which has been absolutely absurd since the big game. with skype, it's just really easy to stay in touch with the kids i work with. alright, russell you are good to go! alright, fellas. alright, russ.

back to work! before we go, one more key for 2014 theme we are watching today and tonight's political world, it is so easy for the candidates to be predefined before they have a chance to define themselves and that is why you are seeing so many brand names this cycle and why it is importa important. the dynasty candidates and we are talking about them, the familiar political name that can have advantages in the races and the midterm and especially where the family brand can trump the party brand. that is what we are seeing the democrats trying to bank on. incumbent mark pryor son of david pryor, and jason carter, grandson of president carter,

and alison grimes, daughter of a powerful broker there at one time, and all of these candid e candidates are hoping to join another half dozen or so legacy candidates around the country running bush today s a showcase for them. that is it for this edition of "tdr." coming up is chris jansing, and i will see you all night. hey, we got our cards, honey! great.

[ ding dong ] [ male announcer ] aarp members get a lot. like discounts on gifts from 1-800-flowers.com... oh... [ male announcer ] savings on roadside assistance from allstate, and exclusive offers from avis, budget and budget truck. all kinds of great deals on dining, entertainment, travel, and more, like geek squad, expedia and british airways, all in one place. aarpdiscounts.com. popcorn, your favorite. [ male announcer ] find offers from regal cinemas, norwegian cruise line and walgreens. hotel savings at hilton, hyatt and best western. and everyday discounts from denny's and kellogg's. they're great! [ male announcer ] all chosen just for aarp members. papa john's! [ male announcer ] with new offers every week. find deals on electronics and technology. and save on tickets to exciting concerts and shows. [ taxi whistle ]

come on, guys, the millers just got their cards, too! [ male announcer ] check out the possibilities. aarpdiscounts.com. where the deals are. ugh. heartburn. did someone say burn? try alka seltzer reliefchews. they work just as fast and taste better than tums smoothies assorted fruit. mmm. amazing. yeah, i get that a lot. alka seltzer heartburn reliefchews. enjoy the relief. we know we're not the center of your life, but we'll do our best to help you connect to what is. on car insurance. everybody knows that.

well, did you know that game show hosts should only host game shows? samantha, do you take kevin as your lawfully wedded husband... or would you rather have a new caaaaaar!!!! say hello to the season's hottest convertible... ohhh....and say goodbye to samantha. [ male announcer ] geico. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more. primary push and voting in six states across the country with the balance of the power in the senate at stake. from kentucky to georgia to pennsylvania and org and we will break it down what you need to know as americans get out the vote. >> hillary and the hawkeye state, and the dems are picking barack obama in 2008 and what do the voters think about hillary clinton this time around? we have the fascinating answers that may surprise you. and any moment, we are waiting to