54% of you picked that one. 12% named debt reduction and another 13% named immigration. and another 14% said voting rights. 18% of "politics nation" said other. the minimum wage was a popular write-in here as well. thanks for voting and you keep the conversation going on our facebook page and twitter. and thanks for watching. i'm al sharpton. a special election edition of "hardball" starts right now. catching mitch mcconnell, let's play "hardball." >> good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. let me start with tonight's bik electoral contest, leading off with the two state where is the

democrats had the best chance to snatch u.s. senate seats now held by republicans. those contests in kentucky and georgia could end up as this year's big democratic morale boosters. both being contested by women with impressive political roots in their state, the kind of strong name and family idea that could help them withstand what threatens otherwise to be a brutal november. in kentucky, allison grimes at the age of just 35 is running even right now in poll matchups with senate republican leader mitch mcconnell who may or may not have reached his electoral sell-by day. astoundingly, she has the greatest opportunity in the country to knock off an incumbent republican u.s. senator. again in a year that democrats are generally seen as vulnerable. today, michelle nun is dpmted to win big.

the polls kentucky and georgia are now closed. in kentucky, mitch mcconnell has beaten tea party challenger matt bevin. allison lundegren-grimes is the winner on the democratic side. here's why those two states are so important right now. there are 12 states with competitive senate races right there. the republicans will need to win a net of three of the remaining nine states. kentucky and georgia in red are the only state where is democrats could pick up a republican-held seat. we expect other big news this evening from pennsylvania, where democrats see a major chance to knock off a very unpopular republican governor. will the nominee be tom wolf,

the self-financing businessman? or allison schwartz who's running with the backing of the democratic organization in philadelphia. all happening today. all being counted tonight, all going to be reported here on msnbc the second there are results. are they expecting a resounding victory or too close for comfort? >> at this point, they're pretty confident that bevin is going to stay down in the 30s, which is where they want him, considering he spent $3 million, much of it his own money in this race. but the biggest difference is going to be that mcconnell is going to be able to stop fightinging a two-front war. it's hard to top dance with a tea party challenge and allison grimes. he's not able to sell his accomplishments both as a

senator who's bringing money back to his state and role as minor think leader and he's been key in crafting quite a few deals. he'll be able to argue he avoided a tax inkrecrease. >> here she was last night on the stump, sounding confident and ready for a fight. let's watch her. >> i am the kentucky woman who my republican colleagues have so gentlemanly referred to as an empty dress. that seeks to retire mitch mcconnell. mitch mcconnell fails to realize it's labor that lifted millions

out of poverty. as he says no to collecting poverty. as he says no to a living wage. you have someone who says right to work for less is just another name for union busting and i will have none of it. >> mcconnell may find that grimes isn't the same stump speaker who began the campaign with a hastily arranged press conference and who often sounded sdripted and uncertain when speaking. monday night she seemed more comfortable in the role and hit all of her lines. the race is virtually tied right now prmcconnell has just a one-point lead, which is nothing. anyway, let's go right now, casey, your thoughts. have you been watching allison grimes? has she improved on the stump? is that obviously and objectively true. >> it is.

she's made marked improvements. that's an advantage. it's given her a lot of time to practice and get better. she faced criticism for not being ready for prime time. they restaged that announcement event shortly after that initially hastily arranged press conference. >> people are saying 25% of the people who said they're going to vote for matt bevin, the car conserco -- far conservative candidate that they were going to switch and vote for grimes. is that credible? >> you know, if you dig into that polling a little bit, the mcconnell campaign people will tell you that arch conservatives were actually supporting

mcconnell over bevin and some of the places where they were losing to bevin included younger voters and some who were actually more moderate. so there is a little bit of a concern. if you think about the type of voter that backed rand paul, for example, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility they were looking for a fresh face and looking for a democrat. one person at the poll said exactly that. he voted in the republican primary. he described grimes as a fresh face for a time when in his view fresh faces were needed. >> that's sharp reporting. i love hearing a different angle. i never thought of that. they're not necessarily to the right of mcconnell because they dislike him. they could dislike him for a whole lot of reasons, including he's been around too long. let's go to georgia where the polls have just closed in the ore state where the democrats have an even chance of picking up a seat.

ron, the purdue people are looking to get what? 50%. hoping to get at some point, either now or in july? >> it's more likely in july. those in this race think it's going to go to a runoff on july 22. there's not been a poll where any of the candidates has gotten more than 25% or so. he's a wealthy man. he's bombarded the airways with a lot of ads. and that seems to be the reason he's been out front. his opponents are questioning that and hoping that in an election today with his very low turnout that he doesn't have a natural constituency and that low turnout will hurt him, they are hoping. but of course, that remains to be seen. we think it's going to be a late night here, perhaps 9:00, 10:00 wfr we know who wins. the top two will go in the runoff. it's a very wide open field. there's been seven candidates vying for this position. it's been a bitterly fought contest over the past few weeks and months. the other candidates who are

interesting, jack kingston, the 11-term congressman from savannah who many people think will be the second place finisher, he's been in that position in the polls for a solid period of time. he has a natural constituency. he's won elections in this state so that may help him. there's also the former secretary of state and the woman in the race, karen handle who because she has run statewide has something of a constituency here. she's known in fulton county, where a lot of votes are here, some think she may be a strong finisher. there's a history of her outperforming in the polls. hasn't raised a lot of money like the other two candidates have. kingston and purdue both have a lot of money. she's something of a wild card and you have two other congressmen who were in the back of the pack of the polls who were more conservative. but again, it's very wide open. the expectation is that we're going to be back here on july 22 with two republicans duking it out. and of course, on the other side here, you have michelle nun from a famous family with a big name,

a good political name. unclear how she will do. but so far she's raising a lot of money. getting comfortable for the run in november. and a lot of people think that in this state, this could be the big surprise where nun pulls it off and takes the republican seat. >> thanks so much for that great report. ron allen down in pursue headquarters in atlanta. chuck todd is the host of the daily rundown here on msnbc. a couple of things. my punch about this year, and you probably have your own hunches that the people on the democratic side who may withstand even a tsunami are the ones with strong family roots in the state. whether it's begich alaska. you have the big democrat in kentucky running. does that work? do you think that can work based on your sense of history? these two women may have a better shot, even though they're novices in many ways than some of the more regular democrats in

there including imcome bents. >> the democrats are counting on it. we've seen marry landrieu overperform democratic performance in louisiana time and time again. boone landrieu's daughter gets through. they trust the brand prk they trust the name. when she makes the case, right? when a family heir of sorts, a member of the political dynasty whatever you want to call them says i put louisiana, arkansas, georgia, kentucky, whatever it is first, an older voter in midterm might say, you know i did know sam nun. he was pretty good. i did know that. >> so they're not the tail of obama's dog. >> they have at least a shot of denationalizing the race a little bit. >> which is important. >> obviously in these red states it is. >> let me ask you about the ironies of politics. i always noticed that even in the year when one party gets blown away, whether it's wartergate killing nixon's people in '72, or didn't ever

kill him. '74. you have a democrat from joe biden being elected from delaware in a year no democrat could win. he won. and this year, do you think there will be someone -- i'm thinking perhaps the democrats could lose the senate and grimes could beat mcconnell in the same year. >> that map is that way. there's always been -- there's been two ironies to election night. republicans find six but lose mcconnell. or they find seven and lose mcconnell and john cornyn ends up majority leader out of nowhere. would it actually fit -- you know, this is mitch mcconnell's issue, how does he not become the washington candidate? this is what grimes is trying to do in this race. and by the way, this is a race that i think the first 60 days, if you divide it, the last 60 days of a campaign from labor day to election, or the first 60 day, this first part, this is a case where i think the first 60

days decide the whole race. he's coming out tomorrow morn, i already have a copy of the super pac ad, a pro mcconnell super pac that goes after grimes, does what they can to try to make her liberal national democrat. >> 35-year-old woman. that will work? >> what i'm saying is we'll find out. the first 60 days she's got to withstand that assault, prove she's ready for prime time. there's going to be a lot of focus on her. i think we'll know in the first 60 days whether she can win if she can withstand this. >> let me talk about the press. the media is not kind to men who go after women. >> he's got to walk a line. >> just in general. there's a sense of unfair attack in many of these cases. like with karl rove recently. >> especially if the candidate doing it already doesn't have a very favorable view. and mitch mcconnell, he's already seen in a negative light. he's not seen as a warm and fuzzy guy. so then it's even harder for him. >> i wonder about this. i've watched people over the years, like mario cuomo. liberal, conservative, middle of

the road, at some point, politicians reach their sell-by date. all the moves have been tried. all the tricks have been played, but unless you're beloved it seems like they say okay, enough of you. >> mcconnell has never been beloved in kentucky. and if you look at his history, the last couple election cycles are actually anomalies. his first three campaigns were all surprisingly close. he underperformed what a republican should do in kentucky because there's always been that, he just doesn't connect. this is not who he is. not a touchy-feely guy. he's a methodical kind of guy. >> he takes pride, and he should, that mccobble is going to be tough in the end. you' got coal going for him, guns going for him.

>> if it's a referendum on mcconnell, he loses. if he somehow creates a choice election, right? bush-kerry, obama-romney. you've got to try not to be the referendum. grimes' job is to make it a referendum. >> is tom corbett going to be scared to death? >> this is the worst result. if tom wolf is the nominee, this is the uncharismatic -- and i say this as a compliment, not a very charismatic, but doesn't seem like a fire-breathing liberal. he'll play well in the tea. he'll play well out west. >> a grown-up. >> you know he's going to get the philadelphia turnout. >> we'll have that result after 8:00 on msnbc. mitch mcconnell has defeatth feeted hi tea party challenger in kentucky. that's the news tonight, just breaking. he'll find allison grimes who also won. they're both going at each other in november.

i think it's the big race of the year. and coming up, why it looks like it might be a rough night for the tea party, at least on the surface. i'm still thinking they're around. and don't forget, i'll be back for full coverage of tonight's primaries. all the news for you, all the results and analysis, and, of course, the best part of the night, the victim vi and the concession speeches. you can't beat a good concession speech. when folks think about what they get from alaska, they think salmon and energy. but the energy bp produces up here creates something else as well:

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welcome back to "hardball." let's take a look at latest results. senate republican leader mitch mcconnell the winner in the republican primary over tea party challenger matt bevin. on the democratic side, it's expected it's allison lundregen-grimes who is the winner tonight. that may be the democrats best shot to take a senate seat currently held by a republican. while the establishment may be on its way to victories tonight, the tea party is still there and kicking. reason number one, the establishment candidates made tea party opponents look implausible. exhibit one, mitch mcconnell seizing on his opponent matt bevin's attendance at a pro cock

fight. mcconnell response was quick and sharp, quote, matt bevin's cock-fighting episode will go down as one of the most disqualifying moments in kentucky political history. reason number two, the establishment started acting like the tea party. for an example of this, we go to mitch mcconnell again. taking a stage at the tea party sen trick cpac in march, brandishing a rival. charlton he ston. and outside groups supporting the establishment candidate. republicans might have tried to hide the tea party, but it's there, of course, with its powerful influence over the party generally. the former chair of the republican party, the republican national committee and an msnbc political abnalysanalyst. i could -- it seems to me the tea party people are losing in name, but the people who are

beating them are buy into what the tea party stands for. they're co-opting it. if. >> if this is the establishment, the republican party has been co-opted by the tea party. look at this georgia primary. a year ago you might have had an argument there were moderate republicans in there and extreme tea party republicans. but today, we have extreme republicans who say crazy things and extreme republicans who are doing crazy things. >> jack kingston is not crazy. >> but they've embraced the tea party agenda. >> kingston has? >> absolutely. so does purdue, the buzzman. >> they want less goth intrusion into the private sector. they want more opportunity for people to advance up the ladder economically. they want to lower the tax rate. so what is this scary agenda that has so many on the left -- >> that's a question that requires an answer. >> they're also talking about dismantling the government completely in the process and not the tea party republicans.

>> name a nontea party person who's doing that. >> we talked about thom tillis. as speaker of house, he rolled back policy and policy. >> north carolina is so far right. >> just ask the state and the folks in the state that apparently support that. >> virginia fox? they had a lot of people in that party. >> there's a different conversation at the state level than you see at the federal level. thom will deal with that in a federal campaign. there's different ratio when you're running for federal office than state office. people look at their leadership a little bit differently. i think that's a big factor in some of these races. but i think at the end of the day, to the broader question about the tea party. the tea party is now a full part of the gop. there's no doubt about that. it began in '09 and 2010. it's now moved in. o. >> not your sweet spot here.

michael tamasky writes, the right wing of the republican primary is going to get whipped in the primaries. but the real prize is 2016. i think you could run in your party rand paul. >> absolutely. and rand paul is always showing the moxie to do that. you and i have talked about this, chris. the republican nominees got to be the individual who can bring that conservative right together with the rest of the party. >> how does rand paul do that? >> how is he doing it? he's having the conversation. >> but he's a dove. he's like me on foreign policy. he doesn't believe in all these wars. >> i just don't think he can pull the party together. >> the party as a whole, one of the backlashes of the bush administration was the war. for a lot of republicans -- >> i'm with you on that. is the democratic party in all fairness here, i think your party is moving to the right. >> moving? >> okay, it's on the right.

>> it's moved, bought a house, planting in the yard. >> is the democratic party moving to the left? o. >> i think the democratic party -- >> yes or no? >> that's a good question. >> what's the answer. >> no. >> it's not. i agree with you. i think there's an element -- >> i think middle america with a voice for economic opportunity. and that's where we're going to start seeing shifts. >> people keep saying elizabeth warren is taking the party to the left? you don't agree with that. >> i think we're having a good conversation about how the economy should work for all people. i don't think that's taking the party to the left. i think that's where the democratic party is. >> how come we have that conversation on the right as extremism. >> go look at the tape of this show the way you described his party's machinations and yours. anyway, i don't think the democratic party has moved to the left. i think it has loud voices moving it to the left but i

don't think they're going to win. i think hillary clinton will be the nominee and keep the party to the center left. polls are closed on kentucky right now. and in georgia tonight. in kentucky, senate republican mitch mcconnell is the winner over tea party challenger matt bevin. we'll see how much he would like to see his numbers in the 30s. mcconnell would like to face a tough challenge against allison grimes. if mitch mcconnell gets too tough for her, look out, mitch. you've got to be careful. and in georgia, five republicans are battling for the senate nomination. if no one gets over 50%, which they won't, the top two vote getters will held to a runoff for the right to take on democrat michelle nun. by the way, these runoffs are to make sure no black guy ever won a nomination down there. [male vo] inside this bag exists

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. >> back to "hardball." and time for "the sideshow." it should come as no surprise that hillary clinton was a hot topic on the sunday political talk shows. but "the washington post" did the math and reported the five major sunday shows mentioned hillary clinton's name a total of 98 times. 98 times someone said hillary clinton. so we went back and checked the tape from all five show, "meet the press" "this week" "face the nation" "fox sunday" take a look for yourself. >> hallry clinton. >> on hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton. >> hillary clinton. >> hillary. >> hillary. >> hillary. >> hillary. >> hillary. >> hillary. >> secretary of state clinton. >> secretary clinton. >> secretary clinton. >> mrs. clinton. >> mrs. clinton. >> mrs. clinton. >> mrs. clinton. >> clinton.

>> clinton. >> clinton. >> clinton. >> apaplectic for mrs. clinton. >> we invited harley brown on this show after his performance in a republican primary debate had gone viral last week. well, we were flattered to find out that jimmy fallon caught our interview here on "hardball" and liked it so much he included some of it on the "tonight show" last night. >> have you heard about this guy harley brown? good. well, he's running for governor of idaho. a lot of people are saying he's like the american version of rob ford. anyway, he appeared on chris matthews show this weekend. anyways, take a look at this. >> joining us right now for his national television debut it's the man himself, harley brown. >> send the biggest bull you got. swag, a scientific guest,

ramalanga ding dong. >> what government programs are you going to get rid of? >> the commies. >> find a man who says what everyone is thinking after five margari margaritas. >> up next, today was a big day for marriage equality. that's ahead as we continue to watch the results coming in from kentucky and georgia and later later tonight from pennsylvania. you're watching "hardball." hey, i heard you guys can help me with frog protection? sure, we help with fraud protection. if there are unauthorized purchases on your discover card, you're never held responsible. you are saying "frog protection"? fraud. fro-g. frau-d. i think we're on the same page. at discover, we treat you like you'd treat you. fraud protection. get it at discover.com carsthey're why we innovate.

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>> twin bombings in nigeria killed 138 people. many were rescuers after the first blast. the community in moore, oklahoma, held a service today. 24 people were killed in a twister including seven children. and a big announcement from the nfl. super bowl lii will be played at the new vikings statement in downtown minneapolis. now back to "hardball." >> senate republican leader mitch mcconnell is the winner over tea party challenger matt bevin. mcconnell will place democrat allison lunderen grimes in november. the top two finishers move on to

a runoff in july. and the winner will face democrat michelle nunn. polls in pennsylvania will close at the top of this hour. a federal district judge one recommended by rick santorum of all people and appointed by president george w. bush ruled that the state's ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional. judge john jones iii wrote the issue we resolved today are s a divisive one. however, that same-sex marriage causes discomfort in some does not make its prohibition constitutional. wow. and this is the fourth ruling striking down a ban on gay marriage in a span of just three weeks now following decisions like this in arkansas, idaho and oregon. as of today, 44% of this country's population, 44% lives in a state that allows or recognizes gay and lesbian couples to marry. pete williams is an nbc news

justice correspondent. he is the justice correspondent for this network. how far does this take us towards marriage equality nationwide? >> well, now we have marriage on the entire northeastern united states. we have it on the entire west coast with the ruling in oregon the other day. the real question is how soon is one of these cases going to get to the u.s. court? and will the supreme court take the case? they don't necessarily have to, remember. so far, we don't have the main reason the court wuld take a case, which is a split among the federal circuits. we haven't gotten to the appeals court stage. some of these cases have been argued but there's no appeals court decisions yet. maybe next year in the supreme court, maybe the year after at the earliest. >> how's this for a mind bender. pennsylvania has a ban against at a stat tut passed by the legislature. there shall be no same-sex marriages in pennsylvania. the court ruled that they can't do that. that's unstushl under the federal constitution. but what happened before they passed that ban? suppose a same-sex couple had gone before a voter

registration, sought a marriage license before the ban. would the been able to get married? what would have stopped this em? before the ban? >> the law didn't allow for it. we actually have to have -- >> you have to have a positive law? >> probably so, yes. this was tried in wisconsin, i believe. either milwaukee, i think it was, two men went to the county clerk and tried to get married. the case went all the way to the supreme court which declined to take the case. they challenged the state law and the court said well, we're not going to take this. there's no federal constitutional issue here. there's no federal question. that's now considered, and the judge referred to that case today, that's no longer considered good law. >> thank you for joining us. let's look at the sthat of gay marriage across the country. following today's ruling in pennsylvania, 20 states now allow same-sex marriage. look at them up there, along with the district of columbia. those are the states on the map in dark blue. mostly as pete said in the upper northeast, and on the west coast. six states have ruled ban on

same-sex marriage as unconstitutional. but the rulings in those states in light blue on hold. same sex marriage bans in 21 other states are being challenged. those are the states in purple. you see that. and the three states left on the map in gray ban same-sex marriage with no challenge to the wall. let me go to ted, you guys are famous with your partner there, fighting for this now. >> ted olson. >> along with david boyes. how does it look for the overall fight to basically bring about marriage equality once and for all under the constitution? >> it looks fantastic, chris. it's like a tsunami going from sea to shining sea with all the states you had up on the screen. the south, the east, the west. we knew something like this with was going to happen when the supreme court decided proposition 8 in defense of

marriage act cases back in june of 2013. and i couldn't have predicted it would be this uniform. every judge that's looked a marriage restriction since those decisions has struck them down. it's really incredible. it's moving a at really fast pace. >> this judge ruled it's an unconstitutional ban. how much chance does that ruling today have of going up to the appellate process in the supreme court? that case. this is about the whole constitution. >> yes. i think it has a very strong chance because of the case in virginia, the fourth circuit is considering a case in virginia where the court struck these laws down. you' got cases from around the country. i think you're going to see these issues get to the supreme court next year, possibly the following year. those issues are going to get to the supreme court. >> is the supreme court still

known as anthony kennedy's court? one guy decides these things? >> welsh he's definitely been in this area, in the rights of gay and bez leans, has been the leader on the court, the language he used in the decision last june leads right to the result that the judge reached today. >> representative simms, your feeling about the success of the cause you believe in? >> i think i join millions of pennsylvanians today in my excitement. as you can see philadelphia behind me, there's a lot of people right now that are very proud of the commonwealth for the first time in a while. we're a state that really lacks even the most basic civil rights for the lgbt people. but this was a huge step forward for us. >> good work. congratulations to all of you who fought for this. pete williams who knows everything about everything we need to know here. i rely on you so much. and thank you representative simms. congratulations on your effective representation of center city, philadelphia. my son and daughter-in-law used to live in that area.

with the famous nickname. >> i have a bit of a political crush on chuck todd. now that i'm in pennsylvania and he's in d.c., if you could put in a good word for me, i appreciate it. >> what are you seeking out of this? you call chuck. up next. i'm not some intermediary here, but i'll tell him what you said. primary fights, fwiegts. returns in kentucky, georgia, the big matchup for mitch mcconnell. and the big stuff coming in pennsylvania tonight for the governor's race. this is going to be a hot one. this is "hardball" the place for politics. meatball yelling c'mon, you want heartburn? when your favorite food starts a fight, fight back fast, with tums. heartburn relief that neutralizes acid on contact. and goes to work in seconds. ♪ tum, tum tum tum... tums! ♪ no matter what kind of business you own, at&t business experts can help keep it running...

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georgia, kentucky and coming soon, pennsylvania. the associated press has called thes race in kentucky where mitch mcconnell has defeated tea party challenger matt bevin for the republican nomination. allison lunndegren-grimes wob h won her democratic primary. and chuck todd's nbc news political director and white house correspondent and master of tonight's number, of course. john ferry is a republican strategist, cynthia tucker is a political prize winning columnist and joins us from atlanta georgia. and ed rendell is the governor of pennsylvania and he joins us from philadelphia. i want to ask you all in that order to give us your take on the role that these two races, involving women legacies, if you will. both from famous family names with family names. in states where they are shows such ability in the polls that they could knock off republicans and perhaps also what looks to

be a dangerous situation for the democrats, keeping control of the senate. chuck todd? >> well, obviously, the democrats have already conceded three states. they're never going to say that, but they already had to almost concede three with west virginia, montana and south dakota. there's always a chance lightning could strike but they're sort of down three. so putting two back into play at least suddenly makes the math. republicans need six. if somehow they win one of these. then you have to look at the different buckets of senate races. the red state democrats that we talk about. hagan, begic, pryor, landrieu. the republicans would have to sweep those. tor if they don't do that, they have to go knock off a udall in colorado. >> michigan is a good shot. >> the good news for the republicans, they have -- they sort of have the safety net. in case of an emergency, if mcconnell blows this or if georgia loses. they have the pad to go find new senate seats somewhere. that's the good news for the republicans.

but boy, running the table of seven or eight democratic seats is a lot harder. >> i would look back to the last three elections. >> by the way, that is what happened. it is what happened. races. >> to the republican, john, wouldn't it be weird if mcconnell lost? >> well, mcconnell is not going to lose. i'm confident he's going to -- >> we've been wondering. we didn't know. now we know. >> i'll bet you 10 bucks that -- >> i don't bet because it screws up my punditry. go ahead. >> i think the goal of the republicans is to always nominate the most conservative candidate who could possibly win. obviously they can did with mitch mcconnell. i think he'll beat grimes n. georgia it looks that jack kingston and -- who is the other? purdue look like the top two finish he is. if they win, if they're in the run-off, they give republicans the best chance to win in

georgia. i think that will take away the scenario you're talking about. if we nominated paul broun or matt bevin, we would be in trouble. we're not going to do that. we're in good shape of winning these two states. >> to cynthia. isn't it true that jack would be a moderate republican to win to go into a senate battle if he gets through the primary and the run-off, if that ever happens? >> well, kingston is a very conservative republican, but he is the establishment choice. he has the backing of the chamber of commerce. he's been in congress for several years. he's a mainstream republican. it would be a mistake to call him a moderate. but if he's the one who ends up in the primary against david perdue, he's going to try to prove how right wing he can be. he's going to try to beat up on david perdue, a businessman who has never held office, as not being republican enough.

and so jack kingston -- you'll see kingston moving as far to the right as he possibly can. >> ed rendell, thank you. how does the governor's race look to you? do you have any insight about how the numbers are going? >> i think tom wolf will win by a 20-point margin. a smashing victory for someone who nobody had heard of in january. a great campaign by wolf. his media consultant, his adviser mary eisenhower did a great job and blew this race open. blew the race open. >> mary eisenhower, an inside pro if there ever was one. thank you all. governor, we only have time for that thought. now you made your prediction, a 20-point spread. >> at least. >> we'll be right back with chuck todd and our political roundtable. you're watching ""hardball," the place for politics. jobs all over america. engineering and innovation jobs. advanced safety systems & technology. shipping and manufacturing.

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we're back with our panel, chuck todd's nbc news political director and white house correspondent. of course john is the republican strategist, cynthia tucker is a pulitzer prize winning columnist and ed rendell. what is the role of the president, if he has one, in this upcoming midterm? the big fight for controlling the senate, et cetera. >> the republicans want to make him the face. they think he's a negative. i think democrats that try too hard to run away from him will end up looking uncredible. i think a democrat looks like

they're lying to the voter. the voter is cynical to that. democrats don't have to run away from him as much as they think they can do, as much as washington consultants tell them l. they have to be independent. i think he's not -- i think sometimes democrats wring their hands too much in red states. >> john, is this campaign going to shape up the way it's looked the last six months as an attack on obama? >> of course 0. it's going to be all about president obama or if the democrats are successful if they can localize the elections that's their only chance. this is a midterm elections that will be about the president and that's why republicans will win fairly overwhelmingly, i think. >> cynthia, does the president have any role to play in the south? any place he can go down there and help? >> absolutely. his role is, of course, to raise money. but his role is also to energize his base, chris. you know, michelle nunn, the -- who will be the dept candidate for the u.s. senate could win if obama's base turns out. georgia is an increasingly

diverse state. obama needs to come into certain cities and energize the base to go to the polls in november. >> governor, how many stops would you want the president to do in philadelphia to get the turnout up? would you do an all-day thing like you used to do for him, five stops, something big like that? >> cynthia is absolutely right. the president still has a role. go into philadelphia, go into pirl, harrisburg. in a close election that can be the difference between win or lose. i think he still can be as positive factor. we're overlooking something when we talk about the senate and the house. governorships where domestic policy is made on things like education and health care, democrats have an excellent chance of picking back four states that have republican incumben incumbents, maine, michigan, florida and pennsylvania. those could be huge takebacks for democrats. >> do you think dave cohen may have bet on the wrong horse? just kiddinging. >> oh, wow! >> let me ask you a real

question. >> i don't know who that is. >> who will win schwartz' seat? >> i think marjorie on the basis of a late surge by bill clinton on robo calls, television ads and direct mail. >> that would be nice. that's all fun, by the way. having fun there. >> yes, we are. >> headlines tomorrow in the paper are going to be it looks like the republicans avoided disaster by not running crazy right wingers, the democrats have strong women states. >> i think the answer is yes to both. democrats have very good -- they have put together as good a campaign as you can put together in red states and republicans are avoiding christine o'donnell. that's an important factor. and i think in senate races we forget they're not as sometimes you can avoid the national environment in a senate race. it's harder in a house race. you sometimes can do it in a senate race. the. >> especially if you have a famous name. >> especially if that name is -- >> landrieu. >> or nunn or pryor. >> funny all the names -- the legacies matter this time.

legacies always matter. thank you, chuck todd, john f he eherty, cynthia tucker and ed rendell. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. join me in two hours for all the results announced live at 10:00 eastern. we'll have everything including all the victory and concession speeches, the best drama of the night at 10:00. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. the bluegrass state is in the spotlight because it is election night in america. with big races in six states and polls have already closed now in georgia and kentucky where there are two big marquee races. voters decisions this evening will have huge consequences for whether republicans take the senate this fall, and we have it all covered for you tonight. plus, we have another installment in our weeklong series "all in america" going back to the heartland to look at education and there