>> what i learned is steve berry is a polite man and probably the only person that called you ma'am. >> yeah. that hurt. i've been called ma'am by some young people lately. >> it is nice. >> joe, it's way too early. >> is that hair blonde or gray? it's hard to see from here. i'm sorry, what were you asking? >> if it is way too early, what time is it? >> well, usually it is time for "morning joe." but right now you want to stick around for "the daily rundown" with chuck todd coming up next. midterm mojo. the president keeps taking hits. the big question is whether republicans can penetrate the democratic party's hold in its swing state blue wall. our new numbers show it's close in some key states and this morning we'll talk to a map who is trying to knock out michigan's self-proclaimed tough nerd. plus, can a texas tandem

lead congress to a border break through? we'll talk to shawn duffy about what is facing families of undocumented immigrants. and even the hoover dam is looking at arizona, new mexico and their neighbors are dealing with the long-term drought. good morning from washington. it is tuesday, july 15, 2014. this is "the daily run down." when it runs on a polar vortex. we'll get right to my first read of the morning. and we begin with the 2014 update. for months republicans have believed their path to taking back the senate winded through the red states that president obama lost in 2012. if that's true, republicans succeed in the red states, that means it's a good night for them and most likely control the u.s. senate. they can do it without having to win a single swing state. but while it's by far the path of least resistance for the gop, it's still no way to become a

majority governing party to build a lasting majority and make end roads. the republicans need to win in 2016 to take back the white house. they have to pick up some of the blue and purple states the president won two years ago. if democrats can hold them off, despite the president's job approval numbers sit in the 40s in a base not fired up, democrats can still win an important presidential state even in bad political times. places like colorado, iowa, michigan and new hampshire. states we are looking at this week. so let's take a look at the map. the red state map stretches across nine states. republicans need nine seats to gape control. they need to win six of the seven red states held by democrats. pretty interesting an easy path, right? they need to hold on to two republican seats being targeted by democrats, georgia and kentucky. then they need to run the table and win all seven.

if they lose both, they need to find and eighth. but the senate race is also starting to be fought in places that are blue featuring blue and purple states. add seven more states to the competitive map, colorado, iowa, michigan, gop and virginia. if republicans start whipping any of these contests, that they go from the possibility of winning the senate to a chance of picking up even more seats, maybe eight, nine or ten and having a real senate majority. the blue states combine to 65 electoral votes in the presidential election. of course they are all carried by the president. this week we are unveiling new maris polls in the key blue and purple senate rate targets. today we look at michigan and colorado. tomorrow will be iowa and new hampshire. three of the four are famous swing states from the '90s. colorado is new to the swing state line of this century. on thursday we'll bring you new 2016 numbers in iowa and new hampshire. democrats have an edge in all four of the states thanks to

infrastructure and in new hampshire and advantage in colorado and michigan. if you need evidence these are true swing states, check out the poll numbers and compare them to national numbers obama carried colorado by five points in 2010, he won michigan by almost ten. now the president sits at 40% in both states. mirroring his national numbers. just as it is nationally, his health care law is unpopular in colorado, 37% of voters think it's a good idea. 52% call it a bad idea. in michigan, 50% believe it's a bad idea. well, republicans have their up problems in these states as well. and it's the same problem they have at national. just 21% of colorado voters approve of the job congressional republicans are doing. this nationalized political environment is making these races competitive. take a look at the head-to-head

match-ups. in the governors race, john hickenlooper is up by six points. and in michigan, gary peters is ahead of republican terri lynn land by six points. mark shaw, 46 to 44, but that's within the margin of error. what is the difference between democrats? senate majority pac supports democratic candidates is out with this new ad in colorado. >> your whole world torn apart, but congressman gardner would make it harder pushing to outlaw a woman's right to choose even in cases of rape and incest. >> so far the play for women

voters appears to be working along with gardner. 70% of those say they are less likely the support a candidate who restricts contraception. think about that with the latest ruling for hobby lobby. and udall has a 38-point lead over gardner, a lead that is likely to grow bigger. then there's the gap among independents. colorado is leaping democratic. and in michigan governor snyder has a narrow lead by 14 points in the race. and in colorado governor

hickenlooper is taking heat for appearing to flip-flop on the gun issue. 40% of registered voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who believes the sale of firearms should be less strictment. then check out this poll in colorado, 56% of those favor citizenship over 47% in michigan. well, democrats have their sights on defeating a lot of republican governors who rode the tea party's coat tails to office in 2010, but unlike michigan's rick snyder who made it through the primary in 2010 with the help of independents and democrats. with the state and economic crisis, snyder made himself a

technocrat and he reminded voters of his promises this year in a super bowl ad. >> some call him a nerd, but michigan now calls him the comeback kid. michigan is coming back because our governor loves budgets, ignores politics and brings us results. >> as you can see, snyder wants to continue to run sort of a non-partisan. he took office in january 2011. michigan's unemployment was 11% and as of may it is down to 5%. snyder has won a slew of battles including providing a huge million dollar contribution to the city. and in our poll 49% of voters approve of the job he's doing. the republican incumbent has not lost a gubernatorial election

since 1948. mark shauer aims to unseat him. his biggest hurdle will be that 53% of voters have never heard of him or don't have an opinion of him. shauer accepted financing for his primary so he has not been running a lot of tv ads but the governor association is providing him a bit of cover. take a look at this ad. >> rick snyder says he makes tough choices, like cutting over a billion from education. that's tough on kids. rick snyder raised taxes on retirement. that's tough on seniors. >> meanwhile, michigan republicans are hitting the shower over skipping policy specifics. >> i'm not going to talk about what that mix of revenues will mean. i have not had my up forecast conducted. >> i'm not prepared to talk about particular ways to solve the problem. >> tell him that this is not an

option. >> congressman shauer is joining me this morning, welcome. >> good morning to you, sir. >> what is governor snyder's snochbs. >> this is a governor who raised taxes on seniors and has produced one of the worst economies in the country. i mean, we are producted to be 49th out of 50 on job growth the next ten years. we need an any what works for everyone and not just the wealthy. that's why this governor is extremely up popular stuck in the mid-40s. the nbc marist polls were dead th tied and there are a lot of people who have not met me yet but i always fought for education and helped in the auto industry. we are going to create an economy to work for everyone and not just the wealthy.

>> a lot of people look at the city of detroit and think of the auto industry. i think of a reasonable question to ask saying there's no doubt michigan is trying to come up with a more diversified economy. the city of detroit is a major problem. what do you think could have been done differently that would dramatically change the picture of michigan today? >> well, what governor snyder's number one priority was was a $1.8 billion corporate tax giveaway, even when companies send their jobs overseas. but he paid for it by cutting a billion dollars from the public schools. that's the single most important investment we can make in building a strong economy. he raised taxes on seniors and parents, raised taxes on low wage earnings. did away with a number of

michigan's economy. michigan has one of the fifth worst economies in the country. it is not working physical for them. >> you have been spending time criticizing him but not coming out with your plan. what is going to jumpstart the economy under your administration should you win? >> first we have to put the billion dollars that rick snyder took away. he has privatetized the for-profit virtual schools. we also stopped giving tax breaks to company that is outsource th outsourcing overseas. he continues to spend tax

dollars on companies outsourcing or jobs. his trickle-down economics is not working. so we've got to readjust some of the fundamentals and we have to create healthy, viable communities. and this governor continues to cut funding to local communities. >> well, one of the big issues that he dealt with during this first time is the manager of detroit. what is your plan for detroit? >> for michigan, detroit must be great and detroit is a great american city. no one should bet against the people of detroit. but what this governor did was he is cutting pensions for the detroit police officers and firefighters, general retirees and they are paying more for health care. we neat a real part to the city to help support public safety. that we rebuild infrastructure.

one of the governors is the inability to get his registration to registration. >> we'll be watching this closely. obviously it's one of the swing states of the industrial midwest. thank you, sir. stay safe on the trail. coming up, a bipartisan border bill emerges but still no progress for the president's request for emergency funding. new details on the border crisis ahead, but first we'll look at the politics planner. the president does another photo op that has to do with the highway bill. he has another one later this week. we know what that is all about. more in the take-away. and baseball's all-star game is tonight. if you like to watch a lot of commentary about derek jeter, then you will probably love fox's coverage tonight. apparently there are 17 other starters, i promise, besides derek jeter. you're watching "the daily run

down" only on msnbc.

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two texas lawmakers are offering a bipartisan bill today to make it easier to send immigrant children back to their own countries. the two want to amend the law passed in 2008 so that up accompanied children would have to have an immigration hearing within seven days of their detention. the goal is to speed up the process and return kids to their parents. the lawmakers say the current law allows unaccompanied children to spend years in the united states in the immigration system and even potentially dodge the system. senator corwyn said earlier the cartels are abusing the legal loophole.

>> they have cracked the code and figured out this gap in the 2008 law which allows children to basically be released. the family will bring the kids home. >> this is one of the last pieces of legislation signed by president george w. bush to guarantee a hearing for unaccompanied immigrants to stop sex trafficking kids from canada and around the world. canada and mexico were excluded. senator dianne feinstein said part of the inspiration for the book she wrote was a 15-year-old immigrant who was on his way to america and was a stowaway. but the champions of the twairgt law did not envision this surge

in immigrating and the growing humanitarian crisis to make it impossible to keep track of all these children. we are not talking about a few stowaways. they have apprehended more than 52,000 children as of mid-june. meanwhile, the pope is weighing in to say this, this humanitarian emergency requires as a first urgent measure these children be welcomed and protected. these measures however will not be sufficient unless they are accompanied by policies that inform people about the dangers of such a journey and above all that promote development in their countries of origin. good morning to you, sir. >> good morning, chuck. >> is there any issue with having this law changed at all? some groups are on the left here at the advocacy groups believe

that you'll end up with a lot of situation where is the unaccompanied children are sent back to more dangerous situations than they were escaping on the journey itself. how do you deal with that aspect when trying to change this law? >> two-fold. i think we'll get bipartisan bill for whatever we come up with to expa indict the kids back in the pool of those who escaped their own countries. they are being raped along the journey, so to think we have a policy to encourage kids to go along in this journey to the american border as a humane policy. this sends a message to participants in central america that says, if you send your children on this very dangerous journey, they are not going to

get am necessanesty. so don't send the future wave of kids. if we don't change this, chuck, this is just the beginning. we are going to have kids' lives rest time and time again. we have pictures of kids floating in the rio grand. we have to understand that the risk is not worth the potential benefit of amnesty because she won -- >> her parents died on the journey to the united states. so what is the unintended consequence of fixing the law? the law itself created an illegal loophole at the time nobody imagined. is anybody here imagining anything that -- when you close this looptoll, will it open up another one we are not thinking

about? >> we have a great debate to try the close the loop holy spirit hole loopholes. >> many democrats and republicans have agreed that the young kids who are undocumented and live here in america, he's made bold statements to send the message to the region that if you send your kids to america they will get amnesty. >> you think that's the issue and not the power and rise of the drug cartels who are always looking to make an extra buck. >> listen. the drug cartels haven't had a recent rise in the last several months. that's been going on in years. the real changes are the statements by the president and the perception given to the american countries and presidents. so that's whied the so important that your we get these children

back home to their parents. this dangerous journey is not worth it because they won't get amnesty. what we heard is not true. when we talk about the violence in the home countries, chuck, it's very people creating the violence, the gang members and drug dealers, that these parents are turning their children over to. and then america would have the policies to encourage children to go along on this dangerous journey is inhumane. we cannot allow that to happen. >> it sounded like you were supportive of the president's decision to give some amnesty for some of the dreamers pre-207, but you may not have liked the way it was done. are you personally supporting that policy for now. >> for a segment of kids who have come to america, i'm a compassionate guy for kids, and i want to do what is right by them, but i look at this policy as a former prosecutor who tried sexual asought cases.

knowing kids that are taking that journey are being abused is making me sick. and we have to work with congress to stop the flow. and it will be a team effort. and chuck, one other thing, listen, the president's asked for the $3.7 billion. that's over $50,000 per child. you know, this is not a blank check but you'll see the congress to make sure the president can handle the crisis, process them and get them back home. we have to send e-mail to them that flows down to south america. they can help improve the law, as we already send money there, but the money is going to a green energy movement or things like solar panels. let's truly send it to strengthen these countries so went we don't have moms and dads

sending their kids to this country. thank you. we heard from a young woman who recently crossed the border and asked her what she would say to lawmakers who want to send children back to their home countries. jose translated her emotional answer as she spoke. >> what would you tell them? >> translator: in my case, it's -- it's horrible. because i went through a lot. and deporting would be too fatal. i don't deserve this. i don't deserve it because i've suffered so much. >> joining me is my new colleague, jose ballard. what i loved about that segment is it showcased exactly what you can help bring to a political audience, which you can bring to

washington power broker that is we know obsessively watch us in the mornings, in particular. and the way you can do things we don't normally see on cable news. >> and chuck, you're a south florida guy and know that is really part of our world in many cities and the opportunity to talk to people like maria. the congressman brought up interesting points on your show and one is what do we do when these children are leaving these crime-riddled countries, come here to be reunited with a family member who is already here. what do you do about that? in a lot of countries, if you request asylum and say, my brother was killed and i fear for my life. most of the countries say you

have a 99-year rate. it seems like the people really do have valid issues with family members here in the united states. >> it is this balancing act is what seems to billion the issue. what do you have coming up today? >> tell wiwell, we'll talk abou reaction we had yesterday to the interview with maria. and we'll be speaking with senator bob menendez. we'll talk about the negotiations with iran and immigration. a whole lot more in just a little while. >> jose, great to have you here, my friend. we still need to do a big miami $we have florida owning five hour of the day.

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♪ [music] defiance is in our bones. defiance never grows old. citracal maximum. easily absorbed calcium plus d. beauty is bone deep. here at your election campaign headquarters, first we'll head to west virginia where two high-profile lawmakers jumped into the very sleepy west virginia senate race. and the eastern panhandle of the state it was none other than massachusetts senator elizabeth warren showing up to try to rally hundreds in support of democratic senate nominee and underdog natalie tennant. >> i'm here because i believe in democracy. i believe in what we can do

together. i believe in natalie tennant. she's going to be your next senator. make it happen. make it happen. >> over in charleston it was congressman paul ryan who was backing tennant's opponent shelly moore capito and took a jab at warren. >> elizabeth warren is to the left of the left of the left of the democratic party. elizabeth warren is a part of the united states senate blocking legislation to preserve coal jobs, that's blocking legislation to preserve energy jobs in america. >> tennant likely faces an uphill battle but it has been interesting to watch this over the last couple of weeks. last night chris mcdaniel asked to see original copies of

the poll books. this comes as mcdaniel continues to search for illegal votes. he lost the runoff by 7600 votes but claims discovered over 8300 questionable ballots. mcdaniel plans to hold a conference tomorrow afternoon to outline his plans moving forward. and now nor the first number in the data bank, 16,469 is the number of signatures he has collected to be on the ballot for the independent senate collaging lindsey graham. the former state treasurer and star of the reality show "southern charm" resigned from office in 2007 after being indicted on federal drug charges. up next, cease-fire or backfire. hamas rockets launched at israel despite a brokered plan to end the week-long conflict. new details ahead. om, he gets a ready for you alert the second his room is ready. so he knows exactly when he can check in and power up before his big meeting.

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deja vu in the middle east. things could be getting a whole lot worse. that's a statement that could have been read any day in the last 50 years, but 90 minutes ago israel launches at gaza l n launching seven attacks after hamas rejected a cease-fire agreement. they said, our battle with the enemy is continuing and will grow even more intense. even after israel halted its attacks, hamas continued to fire attacks at israel. earlier israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu said israel won't back down. >> we are prepared to continue and intensify our operation to protect our people.

and for this we expect full support from the responsible members of the international community. >> while in vienna this morning, secretary john kerry made it clear that hamas bears the responsibility for promoting israel. >> i cannot condemn strongly enough the actions of hamas and so brazenly firing rockets in multiple numbers in the face of the good-will effort to offer a cease-fire. >> joining me now, steve clemmons, washington editor at large and a msnbc contributor. we are shocked by this news but what i found fascinating is egypt tried to play the role it's always played but this is a new government in egypt with less ties to hamas than morsi had and less effective. >> well, egypt put a deal on the

table to get a truce without offering any carrots to hamas to come along. what egypt has done in the past is relaxed cross border crossings for hamas to allow them to bring goods in and out and to find other ways to give them something. and hamas is really trying to extort something from the egyptians more than the israelis. >> that's why this rejected this outright. >> absolutely. if they don't get anything, the only way they can move interests forward is to cause lots of trouble. >> let's be realistic here, israel, i have heard this inside the administration, they are not afraid to criticize net and ya hugh when they think he's wrong. but this is and administration that doesn't feel like israel has done anything wrong in this case, in terms of how they have done with this current crisis. >> our administration. >> the u.s. administration seems to believe that israel -- >> with the exception if you go to the white house and talk to the people in the white house,

they see this question which you always have to raise is proportionality and look at the ledger. we have 192 people dead. a ratio of civilian to militant of about 5:1 killed, more than 1100 injured. israel has a right of self-defense but they don't have a right to engage in such large disproportional killings of civilians. >> others say israel went and found the israelis who killed the palestinians in the revenge killing. we didn't see that kind of effort by hamas trying to find the palestinians. i think that should matter. >> i think that's a fair criticism and one of the questions when you look at this broad question of the dysfunction of a people that feel like they are occupied and sort of being colonized, it's the doctrine of humiliation on the palestinian side. how do you get out of that? we have been trying. every time you see u.s.-led

peace talks break down, we see these kinds of results. we see violence ensue because everyone needs to reshuffle their posture. and right now hamas is not come peting with israel. hamas is competing with islamic jihad and more radical groups to look like the legitimate anvil in challenging israel. >> people talk about proportionally with israel when dealing with hamas. i guess it seems as if israel wanted to just roll through gaza they could. and they haven't done that. so what does that mean? >> well, there's an element of concern. ari ariel sharon withdrew to let them try to move forward. there was a way not negotiated that it robs the moderates of any opportunity that they delivered and it pays off the radicals. who knows what it is. you have a mess. what you have up north is 160,000 people who died in syria. you have one of the lead terrorism chiefs spreading havoc through iraq.

you have today in tripoli 90% of the airplanes on the runway have just been destroyed but rocket attacks. you have a region that is on fire. and you have -- it's the least of our concerns. >> it is a lower priority. >> right. if you look at the media in the middle east, they are obsessed with the sunni/shiite war going on. you don't see sau dirks, i arabia trying to get involved. and reaching the west, we'll have details ahead. our sop of the day comes from the church street cafe in albuquerque, new mexico. they are serving up green chili chick up soup. out west you take regular soups and add chipotle or chiles and

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this week's tdr 50 focus is back in the american southwest where punishing heat and droughts make it some of the harshest territory in the country. that changed some when they built the hoover dam which you see behind me. the construction of the dam and the creation of lake mead along the arizona/nevada border made the area livable and brought water to the desert to help grow cities like las vegas. but this system is in trouble. the lake mead reservoir is at the lowest level, just 39% full and the ongoing drought will make things worse as the summer goes on. when the dam first was constructed in the '30s it was the culmination of an ambitious plan to harness the power of the colorado river for irrigation. launched during the depths of the great depression, it was the largest building project ever undertaken by the federal

government. >> the mighty waters of the colorado were running unused to the sea. today we translate them into a great national possession. this is an engineering victory of the first order. another great achievement of american resourcefulness, american skill and america determination. >> the cop instruction of the hoover dam led to the creation of lake mead, a manmade reservoir that holds enough water to flood the state of colorado with a foot of water. now it has dropped to a record low. when it is below capacity, you can see the equivalent of a bathtub ring on the surrounding rock. the shortage is primarily due to a one-two punch of a growing regional population and severe drought. that's bad news for the 40 million people who rely on the water in the colorado river basin including the cities of las vegas and los angeles. and things could get worse.

if the lake's elevation drops another 6 feet it could trigger cuts in water deliveries to some states. government officials say the chances of that happening within the next three years are 50/50. doug kinney is director of the western water policy program at the university of colorado law school and is joining me now. good day to you, sir. >> good morning. >> well, let me ask you, this issue with water levels and with the hoover dam, how much of this is about water and how much of this is about a population boom? >> well, it's -- the population boom is certainly part of the story here. you know, and the infrastructure you talk about with hoover dam and lake mead has really allowed and facilitated the southwest to be a highly populated ream and that population continues to be part of the issue here. but it's important to remember that most of the water in this

region is used in agriculture. people like to look at las vegas and say that's the source of the problem here. las vegas is using 2% of the water here. >> what could be done? we know it's going to be a dry season out west. there have been a lot of federal government preparations meeting with the western governs and all of this. this issue of dealing with -- are we going to see not just water restrictions but see development restrictions and building restrictions? >> not in the short term, i don't i had. it's important to remember there are two things going on in the southwest. there's the drought that is affecting california, which is unprecedented in the scale. then there is the colorado river, which is different basin. has a different set of problems. there are also drought condit n conditions in colorado. but in the colorado. the issues are long-term growth and supply. i mean, long-term growth and demands while a gradual decrease

in supplies. that's a long-term problem. california's problem is more of a short term drought problem. i don't think in either case the immediate solution is growth restrictions. maybe somewhere down the line. but not in the short term. >> what are lawmakers in colorado, new mexico, arizona dealing with this. we know what california is trying to do. how are they smaller states. there's a fear we'll have water war out west. >> sure. you need to appreciate that the situation in colorado is serious, but it's not an immediate issue. you know, places like colorado that are up stream on the basin are certainly concerned what happens long-term. a part of the concern is if long-term places like las vegas and los angeles downstream really get short of water that changes the political dynamics in the region. as it stands now the seven states that share the river get

along pretty well. if there's push to shove that california is going to dominate. >> it's california versus everybody else. university of colorado law school. i appreciate your input on this. thank you for your help. >> certainly. thank you. trivia time new mexico had the closest margin of votes in the 2000 presidential election. gore topped bush by a mere 366 votes. congratulations to today's winner. eric feldman. we'll be right back. when the pressure's on... only secret offers clinical strength invisible solid and clear gel with 100% odor protection. secret clinical strength.

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take away time quickly president obama putting his highway funding push into overdrive this week. a series of events he's trying to highlight when it comes to infrastructure. today the president heads to virginia to review new technologies for highway transportation. thursday he plans to visit a damage bridge in delaware to press the importance of infrastructure investment. this push comes as the actual highway trust fund could become

insole vent. both parties want to avoid the zaster that would somehow eliminate the funding. but in this current environment within even the easiest of things like the transportation funding bill which creates jobs for everybody has become difficult these days. one big factor will be whether republicans think they can get away with supporting new spending like this prior to the midterm elections or not. sometimes you campaign on something you're likely to lose and sometimes you campaign on something you can win. the president is campaigning a lot on these days on the infrastructure because they see this as a likely win for him. they have to do this. they're going to do it. and now president obama can say, hey, look at the events i've done. i've pressured congress. i can work with them. that's it for the edition of "daily run down."

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