99 days to the midterm. hundreds of races, thousands of candidates but only a few key fights will shape who's in charge and where the final two years of the obama presidency are headed. meantime overseas, the shelling subsides some in the middle east as the u.n. security council calls for an unconditional cease-fire. we'll have the latest on the conflict that has cost over 1,000 lives in three weeks, mostly of palestinians. plus, the tdr 50 train rolls into the badger state. our spotlight is on wisconsin this week. it's been a hotbed lately for partisan punch throwing. but today we're going to look at its rich history of outside the box candidates. good morning from washington. it's monday, july 28th, 2014.

this is "the daily rundown." let's get right to my first reads of the morning. get ready for a three and a half month sprint to the finish. the 2014 midterms are just 99 days away. voters nationwide will cast ballots in 36 senate races, 36 contests for governor and pick their representatives. in all 435 house districts. one thing that's striking so far, we still don't know for sure what this election will be about. will republicans net six seats and win 2014's big prize, control of the u.s. senate? for democrats, avoiding a gop wave and a total disaster might actually represent a small victory. can democrats offset potential losses at the federal level by picking off some vulnerable republican governors? given gop gains over the last few cycles it was always see as an advantage prospect but democrats have their own vulnerable incumbent governors to defend. both the democrats and the republicans legitimately believe they are going to pick up a few

seats in november. somebody has got to be wrong, right? today as we enter the campaign's final stretch, and make no mistake, august 1 is the new labor day when it comes to campaign politics. we'll take a look at what to watch for in the days leading up to november 4th and how the political landscape looks the same in many ways but different than it did six months ago. first, a few things that have not changed over the past six months. number one, the president remains unpopular. 41% approval rating. that number hasn't been over 45% since the government shutdown. it hasn't been over 44% in all of 2014. by the way, in the states he's even more unpopular. the president's unpopularity is matched by an equally if not more unpopular republican party. a 29% positive rating for the gop the last time we measured it and it's been more than a year since the gop had a positive rating over 30%. number three, when it comes to the senate, the battle ground continues to be tilted in the republican party's favor.

republicans now have at least ten, count them, ten real pick-up opportunities. democrats have just two. and finally, outside money. it's driving an explosion of ad spending as "the new york times" reports this morning. six times as many ads paid for by outside groups have already been aired in senate contents than were in the entire 2010 cycle. overall ad spending is up nearly 70% from 2010 and it's expected to break $2 billion. by the way, this is mostly because democrats are almost on par with republicans in the outside money game. but though the overall national environment has not changed drastically over the past six months, some campaign variables have panned out differently than expected. let's start with health care. yes, it's a drag on some 2014 democrats, but it's not the dominating issue that some in washington might have predicted six months ago. still, it's a chance to pop back up in the fall but we'll see. according to data crunched by the cook political report, health care attack ads are still

24% of all general election broadcast spots. so after slowing in the late spring and early summer, those numbers are starting to tick back up again. that's not 24% of republican ads, by the way, it's a quarter of all general election ads, so some democrats too. fewer ads overall are aired in the mid-summer and groups like americans for prosperity, the koch group and crossroads have the money to stay on the air. democrats feel good about the fact that their candidates have survived a six-month onslaught in the issue and believe there's nothing much new to throw at them. 2014 has been defined a a few things. democrats believe the hobby lobby decision was a game changer in their favor, raising the profile of the contraception issue in the fall which they hope will draw single women to the polls in states where it can make a difference. in our state polls this month we saw a big gender gap. democrats led across the board among women.

double-digit leads in places. but will unmarried women turn out? in a recent memo, democratic pollster stan greenberg concluded that almost one-third of the unmarried women who voted in 2012 won't come to the polls in 2014, writing that what he calls the rising american electorate or obama's 2012 coalition and particularly unmarried women are underperforming even 2010 margins, which was a terrible year for the democrats. immigration has been a powerful issue in republican primaries, just ask eric cantor. it's still not clear who the issue favors in the fall. neither party really wants to deal with it in the fall. republicans will have trouble defending the immigration bill's collapse and will be hamstrung trying to talk about the issue to conservatives and middle of the road voters at the same time. then again, does the crisis of undocumented kids on the border ding the president on competency and end up hurting democrats on that score?

it's not just the issue terrain that shifted slightly. six months ago it looked like a dpaungt let of primaries could slow momentum as they did in 2010 and 2012. instead, so far and there's still kansas to come, those challengers from the right have barely made a ripple. two gop incumbents are still threatened, kansas' pat roberts and lamar alexander. very few serious tea party challengers have emerged on the house side. here's another variable not necessarily predictable, democrats are beating the gop in the money race. being the minority in the house may be the least powerful position in washington, but somehow they have outraised $121 million to $101 so far. nancy pelosi has raised more than 35% of that, traveling to 58 cities this cycle according to "the new york times." that money is helping democrats remain competitive. another advantage, there's a

number of famous political names, as national journal points out. democrats in seven of the nine senate races that the koch report makes at toss-up come with a family with history in that state or federal politics. think mark pryor to mark begich who ran this ad featuring his late father. you have mary landrieu running on political dynasties. there's of course georgia's jason carter, grandson of jimmy, running for governor. and today florida house candidate gwen graham who both agree is the democrats' top 2014 recruit is out with an ad starring her famous political father, bob graham who worked 408 different jobs over 30 years as a way to connect with his constituents. >> i'm gwen graham and dad and i approve this message. i remember when my dad starred the work days. i watched him change, and change

in terms of his understanding of people. >> work days keep you in touch with the people most affected by what you do. >> one more variable that we predicted six months ago and now we are seeing the data to confirm it. the public's disgust at washington and their elected leaders is translating into fewer votes. as we told you last week, only 18 million out of the 123 million americans eligible to vote have bothered to do so so far in primaries. overall primary turnout is down a whopping 18% in 2010 to less than 15% overall. primary turnout was up in '94, up in 2006 and up in 2010. those were wave years all of them, for one party or the other. so does a downturn mean no wave? but there's a lot of evidence, there's a lot of evidence that we won't see a wave this year in the trend that we've seen over the last four cycles of vote total rising won't repeat itself in the fall. here's the thing, republicans don't need a wave election to win control of the senate. let's take a look at where things stand. they need to net just six sets.

three are pretty much guaranteed pickups. in west virginia, south dakota and the montana seat that's currently held by appointed senator john walsh. the plagiarism last week pretty much ended any chance that he had of making that race competitive. by the way, there are democrats that believe natalie tenant in west virginia has one more shot at making this competitive. we'll see, her ad campaign starts soon. then there are the four endangered red state democrats we've been focused on. arc louisiana, louisiana, north carolina and and alaska. there's no doubt they're still at risk but all four of them have kept it close. all four ended june with more cash on hand their their republican opponents. it explains why this midterm doesn't meal like '10 or '06. but here's the problem for democrats. states that didn't look competitive for the gop six months ago are now real barn burners. some of the states in this blue state battle grounds, new

hampshire, oregon, even virginia, still heavily favor the democrats, but you never know. six months ago iowa's bruce braley looked like the favorite but on friday he quietly shook up his campaign team a month ago under pressure from national democrats. it's just the latest blow to a campaign filled with a string of unforced errors by the candidate. even democrats who are running ahead, like mark warner, are clearly nervous about this political environment. that was clear from his surprisingly aggressive debate performance in the campaign's first debate with ed gillespie on saturday. >> he spent his entire career as a d.c. lobbyist and a partisan operative. he views every issue through the lens of republicans versus democrats. he even went on tv and called himself a partisan warrior. his words, not mine. >> if senator warner had been the senator he said he was going to be, i wouldn't have 47 of his eformer donors giving to me

because of their frustration with his time in the senate. look, governor warner wouldn't recognize senator warner today. >> ouch. when it comes to the democrats pick-up option it is kentucky and georgia. republicans avoided tea party candidates in both states, but they still haven't shaken their democratic opponents. democrats believe they can compete in both places. bill clinton will campaign for alison grimes next week in eastern kentucky. on the house front both parties agree they are competing over a very narrow playing field. this isn't about whether republicans are going to hold the house, it's pretty much a given that they will. the question is what is their majority going to look like and what are the pick-up seats going to look like. republicans hold 234 seats in the house. they have set themselves a goal of 245 total, meaning they would like to net 11 to proclaim a good night for them. you'll notice it's a pretty good night for the republicans if gop candidates are knocking off

democratic incumbents in places like illinois, arizona, minnesota, california and perhaps new york where the lion's share of their targets are this year. democrats believe they'll pick up seats. if they can, they'll do well in places like virginia, new jersey, florida, iowa and colorado, all places they're targeting. first lady michelle obama implores democrats to turn out in a new video that the dccc has out. >> when it comes to the midterm elections this november, we need you to be as passionate and as hungry as you were back in 2008 and 2012. >> when it comes to the gubernatorial map given that 22 republican seats and just 14 democratic seats are up for grabs, it looked like when the cycle began, advantage d. democrats have set their sights on defeating the republican governors who rode some of the tea party coat tails in 2010. red state kansas is somehow competitive for sam brownback and wisconsin's scott walker

looks no better or worse than he did six months ago, maybe even a little worse out. ohio's john kassick in better shape. john hickenlooper also remains vulnerable. and of course there's florida, the most expensive race in the country on any level. here's the big question for the next 99 days, though. in the end what is the fall election going to be about? republicans want to make it about president obama, but the question is what about obama? is it health care, the economy, the president's leadership overseas? democrats want 2014 to be about republican obstruction and are doing their best to pointing their finger at congress. neither party has come up with one signature defining issue which has the power to dominate this election and that's probably the most remarkable nondevelopment over the first seven months of this election cycle. much more on the 99-day beyonddowbeyon

countdown. we'll have a look at the nine races we believe are important and plus four wild cards. first we'll go to the middle east. shelling subsides over gaza city but diplomatic tensions are rising. by the way, is john kerry lost the confidence of the israeli government? there's something going on here between those two sides. meanwhile, today's politics planner. we'll hear from the u.n. security council after a 10:00 a.m. meeting. and the trial of former virginia governor bob mcdonnell starts this morning. it's jury selection so there won't be any big developments today other than that. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc.

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fighting is over in the middle east and there's no sign of a durable cease-fire, despite heavy international pressure. today is a holy day in islam, marking the end of ramadan, so israel and hamas fighters had stopped rocket attacks overnight. there was sporadic fighting this morning. the israeli military says it carried out three air strikes on gaza, targeting hamas rocket launchers and infrastructure. here's where the death toll now stands. 1,035 palestinians, 43 israeli troops and three israeli civilians just since july 8th. with the casualties mounting, the u.n. security council called a midnight meeting. members called for an immediate an unconditional humanitarian cease-fire. a longer lasting cease-fire deal could be tough. hamas says it wants israel to release palestinian prisoners. israel wants to remove all of the rockets from gaza. the u.n. chief said an hour ago that all parties in the gaza conflict expressed serious interest in trying another temporary humanitarian truce. prime minister netanyahu says

israel has complied with all of the truces and blames hamas for breaking them. >> we have accepted five cease-fires, acted upon them. hamas has rejected every single one of them, violated them, including two humanitarian sies fi -- cease-fires. now hamas is suggesting a cease-fire and believe it or not, david, they have even violated their own cease-fire. so they continue to fire at us and we'll take the necessary action to protect ourselves. meantime the leader of hamas calls jews in israel occupiers. >> translator: we are not fanatics, we are not fundamentalists, we do not actually fight the jews because they are jews per se. we do not fight any other races. we might the occupiers on the country. we actually respect the religious people. >> but he refused to acknowledge the idea that israel is a jewish

state. yesterday president obama called prime minister netanyahu expressing a, quote, growing concern about casualties on both sides. nbc's martin fletcher has more from tel aviv. martin, it seems to be over the weekend, and particularly there is this report about a cease-fire deal that john kerry purportedly had been floating around. it seems to me that the communication gap between kerry and netanyahu is growing, not shrinking. >> reporter: chuck, you're a master of understatement. there was a shocking reaction from israeli leaders who began leaking like crazy to the israeli media when they got the proposal, the truce proposal from kerry. i mean they were really in shock and that's why it was unanimously rejected, even though there are members of the cabinet who want a cease-fire right away, they rejected that proposal unanimously. they say that kerry's proposal

essentially took the turkish/qatari/hamas proposal and made it his own, ignoring the israeli plo egyptian proposal and that really upset the israelis. they say, look, kerry has taken the side of hamas and the muslim brotherhood and turkey and qatar against us, the ally. so they were shocked and rejected it, which was strange because the one thing that's pretty clear israel wants is a cease-fire, but they were put in the position of rejecting it. >> if at this point what are we looking at today? now we hear john kerry talking about a series of temporary truces, essentially buying time. is that something that netanyahu secretly wants, because he still wants to finish the military mission which in this case is getting rid of the tunnels? >> reporter: absolutely. the longer the truce will last the better it is for israel's military because that gives him time to continue looking for and

destroying the secret tunnel network that hamas built leading from gaza into israel. bear in mind that is a static operation. when they find the tunnel, the combat engineers go in. they're surrounded by fighting troops who have to defend them and they're only in one place so that makes them good targets. if they can do that with no fighting going on around them, that's much better for israel. that's one reason that israel is in favor of a truce. but personally, i'm optimistic about this. this kind of cease-fire for 12 hours and 4 hours and another 12 hours, it's progress. at least it stops the killing in gaza and the attacks on israel and hopefully kerry and others can build on that to achieve a longer lasting cease-fire. that's certainly what the hope is. >> all right, martin in tel aviv for us. thanks very much. now let's turn to ayman mohyeldin. he is in gaza. ayman, a couple of things. number one, what is -- what are you seeing as far as the sporadic fighting that's been

taking place over the last few hours? >> well, we have a sense that the fighting is concentrated in a few pockets in gaza, predominantly in the northern part of the territory. now palestinian militant sources from the various factions here say they have been engaged in some battles with israeli ground forces in those areas. over the past several days we know the israeli ground forces that have pushed in all across the eastern part of the territory destroying some of those tunnels, trying to destroy some of those tunnels have been coming under attack. that is a condition of the palestinians if there is to be a durable cease-fire that israel will have to withdraw entirely from the gaza strip. this is something we talked about, that 40% of gaza is a no-go area. certainly that is going to be a major demand of the palestinian factions. you probably heard the shelling just a few minutes ago. that has been a consistent sound and we have been hearing that with the same intensity we've heard over the past few days but nonetheless it does continue on this first day of the holy

holiday. >> what do the remarks by mr. marshall, who is the head of hamas, what do they mean as far as whether this is a setback to potential negotiations between the israelis and hamas? >> well, actually in the context of this ongoing struggle, it's an attempt to reframe the narrative. oftentimes particularly in the west hamas is portrayed as a terrorist organization compared to other terrorist organizations that are cited, boko haram and others. that is something hamas has always distinguished itself from. they want to make it very clear they are simply fighting an occupation, a military occupation in their land and that is what he is trying to say. we are not fighting the jewish people, we are fighting israel which is occupying the land. >> ayman mohyeldin, thanks very much. we had planned to talk to the israeli ambassador, the ambassador here in the united states but he unfortunately had

a change in his schedule and had to cancel. joining me now is the executive director of the palestine center in washington. so the series of trusces, what are you hearing on the ground? are you optimistic that a truce can be abided by 12 hours at a time? >> obviously to get anything lasting you need significant international intervention and pressure, particularly on the israeli side because they really retain the monopoly on the use of force here and we see that displayed. we see that in the casualty count as well with over 1,000 palestinians now having been killed, the majority of whom are civilians. but i think there's something very interesting going on here between the israelis and the americans, which really says a lot about what the israeli intentions are on the ground. there was a very deliberate attempt by the israeli government to marginalize john kerry and we saw that in the last few days. the secretary came out with very strong pushback against some of the leaks that were made.

i think it's very clear that what the israelis attempted to do with that is to keep john kerry and the americans, their strongest allies in this, at bay as they are undertaking the expanded campaign in the gaza strip. >> right now we see john kerry live at the start of, i believe, a youth town hall that's taking place for young african leaders that's taking place here in washington. president obama will be speaking at it later. the comments by mr. marshall when it comes to israel and hamas' intentions, that doesn't seem to be any way to convince the israelis that hamas wants peace. >> i think if you look at what he said, he made a very clear distinction, which is one that is often misunderstood here in the united states about what the intentions of hamas and other groups in the palestinian territory are. he said we have nothing against jews as jews per se. our issue is with the israeli occupation.

and so they want to frame this very clearly as resistance to a foreign military occupation, not to members of a particular religion. >> but he didn't recognize israel's right to exist. >> no, he didn't recognize israel's right to exist. even though other palestinians have, what i think people in hamas and other factions have seen is that this recognition of israel's right to exist when not reciprocated actually does not lead to any positive results, so they are very hesitant to do something like that without any reciprocation of palestine's right to exist, for example. >> well, when it comes to hamas, is it better for the united states to be using egypt as a go-between or qatar and turkey? >> well, the geographic reality is egypt borders gaza. there's no way around that. so the egyptians are going to have to be involved somehow, but there's a complete lack of trust between hamas and the egyptian government now. but it's not just hamas and gaza. you're talking about a variety

of different factions that span the political spectrum, from nationalists to islamists to leftists as well who are secular. so the issue here is not just about one political party, but it's really about a group of people under this siege who are asking for terms in a cease-fire that is going to bring some sort of relief to the civilian population on the ground. >> i've got to leave it there. i appreciate you bringing a perspective here. >> thanks for having me. up next, a plan to overhaul the va actually moves forward, believe it or not. congress might do something before it leaves. plus a trial to test the limits of political corruption. former virginia governor bob mcdonnell and his wife head to court. first the trivia question, when was the last time wisconsin voted for a republican presidential candidate? the answer and more is coming up on tdr.

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come on, let's get to bed. following six weeks of negotiations, it looks like there is finally a bipartisan deal on a plan to reerm the broken va health care system. senator bernie sanders and congressman jeff miller, who chair the veterans affairs committees in both houses of congress have repeatedly reached an agreement and have scheduled a news conference on capitol hill this afternoon at 1:30 to unveil their legislative proposal. while details are still emerging, it is expected to propose billions of new dollars to hire more doctors and nurses, lease 27 new health clinics, shorten wait times for appointments and perhaps give veterans the option of going to see private physicians outside the network if their wait time is too long. all of this, there was massive

bipartisan agreement in both houses and it was shocking they couldn't come together with just days to go before recess. meanwhile it's time for our first number in today's data bank. five weeks. that's how long former governor bob mcdonnell's trial is expected to last. the governor's trial begins in richmond. mcdonnell and his wife, maureen, were indicted on 14 charges including accepting over $165,000 in gifts and loans. if convicted, the couple could face decades in prison. up next, hundreds of races but only a few that will determine who's in charge on capitol hill. with 99 days to go, we'll tell you which midterm matchups you need to watch. i've got a great round table to mess around with on this. don't miss this one. 180 seconds, stay with us, we'll be back. ll only give you 37-thousand to replace it. "depreciation" they claim. "how can my car depreciate before it's first oil change?" you ask.

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big prize, the senator majority. for a race-by-race look at the states i'm joined by three big-timers. dan balz, amy gonzalez. welcome, all. we're going to have a little fun here. i'm going to make you guys say which way you're leaning. >> we're not predicting. >> who would you rather be at this point in time. we're giving you an out so when you get the complaint phone call you can say -- dan balz, colorado pretty much the only swing state that's in play and could maybe offer a tiny hint of 2016. >> yeah, it is. colorado has always been to me one of the most interesting states in the country for a couple of reasons. one is the shifting demographics. two is just the way it swings. you know, it went democratic heavily after being republican for a long time, now maybe it's

swinging back a little bit. we know that the governor could have a race, john hickenlooper, and the senate is a real tight race. i think cory gardner is one of the better candidates the republicans have found. i think you still have to give the democrats a slight edge in that. >> who would you rather be, udall or gardner. >> i would rather be udall. >> republicans do love their incumbents. let's go to michigan here, nathan. an open seat in many ways. six months ago democrats felt relatively confident. a little reason to change? >> there's some uncertainty, i think there's more confidence now. i'd rather be congressman gary peters because just looking historically republicans have been able to get over except for spence abraham's win. but they don't have to win michigan in order to get to the majority? >> any disagreement there? >> no. >> sort of a unanimous view on that one. let's move to iowa, amy.

this is probably -- there is no race that has sort of changed more in the last six months than iowa. >> right. this was supposed to be an easy hold. this is tom harkins' seat. bruce braley was the candidate everybody united behind. joni ernst has turned out to be a very good candidate, bruce braley not so good, having a lot of troubles. when we talk about colorado is a swing state, so is iowa. let's not forget that iowa too has gone back and forth, it's really more of a purple state. if i were republicans i would much rather be focusing on states that have open seats rather than trying to beat some of these incumbents. >> iowa always looks more democratic but it really is a tipping pointing. who would you rather be? >> i don't know on that one. terry branstad is still focused

on making this a big year. >> bral echt y has been on the defensive a number of times. democrats are about to unload on joni ernst, we'll see how she holds up. >> let's move now to arkansas, amy walter. some thought if we were going to have a republican wave this would be off the table but it's not off the table. is that a good sign for democrats? >> i guess so. look, i think arkansas we always put into the category of let's just sort of put that maybe not in the safe republican but leaning republican and worry about all these other states. >> and you still feel that way? >> yeah. if you look at the last few polls, tom cotton, very slight lead. >> nathan? >> i think at this point i'd rather be tom cotton. >> i do too. the numbers, you just don't know how pryor gets to 50. >> i think there's one caveat which a democrat indicated over the weekend to me and that is ground game. there's never been a democratic effort to really do a ground

game in arkansas. >> and they have made a real one. >> in all of these states. >> so that's one caveat on the race. >> alaska, nathan. this has been -- is there a better democratic incumbent run campaign? >> even some republicans are praising his campaign but talking about the democratic ground game, i was talking to a republican up there last week and there are 52 democratic operatives devoted solely to rural alaskaville annuals. >> the native alaskan vote. what does that tell you? >> we'll get through the primary, see who it is and there will we some consolidation not knowing up in the polls right now. >> we've got to remember the third party candidate. this is a place where 4%, 5%, 6%, mark begich doesn't have to get to 50% to win this thing. north carolina the other swing state that's sort of in the competitive battleground. >> in a sense i know their mega race, because of all of the money that's already gone into

that race, you know, i think what's been interesting is that the republicans have unloaded on hagan earlier this year and she still held in there. thom tillis has had problems because of the unpopularity of the legislature. i think at this point it's still -- it's clearly very much a toss-up. i would not -- i think hagan is in a slightly better position, but that's a tough one. >> i feel that way too and the libertarian candidate. >> low to midsingle digits. >> let's move to louisiana. amy, i go to you because we know charlie, your boss -- i feel like the cassidy campaign has decided they're playing for the runoff. >> that's right. >> is that a mistake? >> well, you mean should he be more aggressive right now? >> more aggressive going for the run in november. if you play for the runoff, you may not get there? >> he may not be the only one making that decision. you still have outside groups that are clearly trying to do that. look, he has to define himself,

that's part of the problem. nobody knows who he is. he's just a stand-in right now for a generic republican. >> and he's allowed it to be that way and that's what i don't quite get. it all seems to be about a runoff but who knows what the runoff looks like. let's go to our two republican races. georgia, nathan, david purdue, i guess if you say democrats would have picked purdue over kingston but slightly. >> there's enough to shoot at no matter if kingston or perdue. i think we're in this post-primary phase. i think it will get there but kind of similar to joni ernst in iowa. when michelle nunn comes under more scrutiny, we'll see how she holds up. >> do you buy into michelle nunn? >> possible but i think that state is hard to democrats. >> let's go to kentucky. this race hasn't moved in six months, and i think there were

some republicans who thought they might have a slight lead by now and they don't and that has them a little bit more nervous. >> they should be nervous. he's been unpopular. mitch mcconnell has been unpopular all the way through this. she's holding up reasonably well. she's raising a lot of money. i think this one obviously goes down to election night. >> they don't want to have to make a decision. oh, let's just have -- we have to make it in november but i don't want to have to say now. >> if there wasn't an unpap lar obama, mcconnell would be dead in the water, wouldn't he? >> the saving grace, he runs for re-election in kentucky and not nevada or colorado. >> now the wild card is here and i go, which is new hampshire, virginia, oregon, kansas. you guys get to pick one you think is more likely to become competitive come november. dan, where do you lie on this? any of them? >> i don't buy virginia yet but i think virginia will tighten because it's a close state. i don't buy new hampshire yet.

but that could -- that likely will close from where it is now. but i think jeanne shaheen knows that state so well and knows ground operations so well, so at this point i don't see any of those quite coming into play. >> why do i think -- here's a bet i've thought about making. >> why did you not put minnesota on there? >> do you think that's more likely to pop than these four? >> that to me would be a much more interesting race to watch simply because it's been so under the radar rather than these ones where you have -- >> it seems like it's not fully there, though. >> i don't think -- i don't think -- i don't like buying any of them right now but if the president's popularity suffers even more and there's more drag, i think you see all of them come in or none of them come into play. >> kansas is the one weird wild card in there and that is all about the pat roberts primary, how much trouble is he in. i assume he is no longer allowed to do talk radio, is that right? his campaign doesn't allow interviews. other than that, that's

something that you do. kansas, the weirdest state in the union right now politically. >> although it makes some sense. the reason you have so many of those republican governors, the ones in trouble, it's about them more than it is about the environment. in this case sam brownback the fights he's picked with his own party and the decisions he made on tax cuts and education. >> but the other thing about kansas is there has been a battle inside the republican party since bob dole stepped down as majority leader when he ran for president and it continues to play out. >> and this is why something could set off. this is awesome. we could have done this for much longer. we'll bring you back into it again, i promise. up next, the state known for cheese is known for out of the box political thinking. the tdr 50 train rolls into wisconsin this week. we'll tell you what our soup of the day is. it comes from maxi's in milwaukee. they're serving up crab and corn chowder. i'm not a big fan of doing seafood in the midwest, i'm just saying. we'll be right back.

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say cheese! we're focussing our tdr 50 lens this week on wisconsin. it's a state known that is producing cheese and a lot of political change. joe mccarthy may be wisconsin's most infamous senator. the state has a history of those who did more than a witch hunt on capitol hill. you can trace wisconsin's history as a reform to the governor robert lafayette who was elected after campaigning on

on tax reform and corporate regulation. he took his talent and progressive eye doideals to con. it focussed. on efficient and effective government. was labelled the wisconsin idea. his independence led to a split within the republican party. created a schism not unlike the one created 100 years later. he ultimately ran for president in 1924. won throughout the 20th century wisconsin never shied away from an out of the box style way of political thinking. milwaukee elected three socialist mayors. and the progressive ideal that began with lafollete were picked up by democrats.

then william. he made his name crusading against government waste for more than 30 years. gaylord nelson served as senator for 22 years known for the environmental work. he later founded earth day. russ fine gold put the independent minded lawmaker that criticized both parties. it's not to say that wisconsin only backs democrats. but tends to side with lawmakers that push the envelope. tommy thompson served for 14 years. turned out to be a model for a federal welfare program. current senator ron johnson was described as a face of the tea party when he emerged four years ago. then he had congressman paul ryan consistently been a leading voice on fiscal issues since being elected at age 28. the state's tolerance for change was pushed to the breaking point. when scott walker parked public outrage with his plan that called for more union contributions to benefit and

curb on collective bargaining. walker survived a recall effort that became the most expensive election in state history. he has the hands full this year in the re-election bid against democratic challenger mary berg. it's been a dead heat for months. burke would be a somewhat surprising choice outside a local school board. she never held elected office. picking a candidate somewhat out the box has never been a problem for wisconsin. learn more on the badger state including mary burke. she'll be on the show tomorrow. don't miss our report on excellent editing tools like the van that white veto. it's a fun week delving in on wisconsin. coming up next jose diaz-balart drilling down on the week of immigration debates. i'm meteorologist bill

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