case more. the details are out. he has no case load. mark fuller, alabama, district court judge. that is "all in" for this evening. >> good evening, chris. thank you. and thanks to you at home for joining us this hour. the sunni militant group isis has released a new video today. it is not as overtly gorey. it's also not as long, it's only about 2 1/2 minutes long. the latest video does not include the beheading of as to tang like three of their recent videos have shown. but in its own way, this footage isis has released today, even though it is not remotely gorey, it is very, very chilling, particularly for an american audience. what they released today is this. this has not been verified by nbc news, so all i can tell you for sure is what this material risz group says they are showing in these images and what some

terrorists analyst groups say about it. but what they say they're showing here is the remains o of a syrian military jet, which isis says it shot down over syria. one of the groups that monitors postingic es like this, they say that their analysis indicates that the type of plane isis shot down and that you're seeing the wreckage of here is one of these. it's a variant on a russian-origin mig fighter jet. russia has been the main arms supplier to syria for decades. it would make sense at one level that if it was a syrian military jet, it would be a russian-origin aircraft like this. that said, the footage that isis posted on line today, it does show, as you can see here, it shows a lot of component parts with instructions written on them, aparent pli in english. nbc news has not verified this content.

and i'm not enough of an aeronottics expert to testimony you what each one means. if the reports about what happened here are accurate, if this was a syrian war plane conducting air strikes against isis, near the isis headquarters in eastern syria, if that's what happened, if isis was able to use anti-aircraft weapons to shoot down a syrian military plane. that a turning point. we knew isis had antiair kraft. that not only has immediate implications for the syrian military effort against isis, which is now a year's long effort in the middle of that civil war.

it also has really big imply skagss for us. for the united states. u.s. drones and u.s. manned aircraft with pilots in them, have already conducted more than a month of air strikes against isis targets inside iraq. after president obama announced that he'd be expending that effort, we're just waiting to hear when they're going to start happening inside syria, as well. aparentally, president obama has authorized air strikes in syria. we have known for weeks now that isis, among all the things that it has, they have heavy anti-aircraft artillery. but if what isis posted online

today is true, we now not only know that they have weapons that theoretically could shoot down planes. and we now know that they want to shoot down planes. in addition to that now, though, we know that they can shoot down planes because they've done it. so in terms of what we are getting ourselves involved in here. what they're told is they're 167th air strike of isis targets in iraq. five more strikes bringing the total air strike all inside iraq. when the other shoe drops inside syria, then u.s. pilots will be facing a dual threat. on the one hand, the prospect of being shot down by isis and, also, the possibility of being shot down by the syrian military.

so if we're bombing syria, this is not going to be the same in pakistan and somalia and yemen. these are going to be different. so this is a qualitatively different kind of operation that u.s. troops have started in iraq already and that they're about to expand into an even more dangerous enveernt where not just one target on the ground but two targets on the ground might be shooting back. today, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, martin dempsey, short of drped the pretense of what american pilots are doing right now is not combat.

the question from the senator was blunt. >> let me ask you two questions. in you're opinion, are the pilots dropping bombs in iraq? as they're now doing a direct combat mission? an and,ly, will u.s. forces be prepared to do a search and rescue if a pie lot gets shot to the ground. >> yes and yes. >> yes, if an american pilot gets shot down, there will be american boots on the ground to rescue him or her. and, also, yes to the second question. the americans flying over' rack and soon to be in syria are in

combat already,yes, and yes. >> can i just point out for a second how ridiculous the beltway press is when they report on stuff like this? there was this eruption of headline today from all the beltline press. when he said if conditionings on the ground change, if this conflict shifts over time, he could imagine the circumstance in which he could recommend that u.s. ground troops be used in iraq or syria. he could imagine a scenario in which he might make that recommendation to the president. the bemtway just erupted today over that. the president has said no groupd troops. here's general dempsey saying i could imagine recommending ground troops at some point. that is not a scandal.

we have this notable and important thing in this country. they do not get to decide whether or how the united states conducts a war. i mean, some of the generals involved in in eft gents against isis have already recommended to president obama that u.s. ground troops be used. the general in charge of special operations recommended to president obama that u.s. ground troops be used there. that they be put on the ground to target those air strikes. that recommendation was made by the general. but you no e what, the president turned down the recommendation. he said no. because the president is the person who makes the decision. and he said no ground troops. the military makes military recommendations to the president and the president decides whether to accept them or no t. that is not a scandal. if they recommend spg to him and he says no, it's not a can sdal. that's ablg which youly america. that is our system of government. it's one of the best things about it.

this's whooi if guy in a suit is commander in chief. >> honey, i've really been enjoying your show, but when you yell -- >> now, on if other hand, i shuld tell you, when the chairman of the joint chiefs says the u.s. pilots who are doing these bombing missions, when he says, yeah, those bombing mixes are combat missions and we shouldn't say that that isn't combat, what they're doing. on that, he's right about that. the beltway aparentally didn't pick up on that. the general was right about that. and what he said about that really is contradicting everybody in the beltway. everybody in the administration and press who is saying that combat troops right-hand turn being used here.

there are more than 1100 men and women in the u.s. military, soon to be more like 1500 men and women in the u.s. mill air who are serving in iraq right now. the number is examined to go up to something like 1600. they're either there to flee combat missions, dangerous combat pigss or they're there in support of those dangerous combat missions. this is combat. as the congressman said today, quote, this is a war. maybe i've got the hook up what the new definition of war is. bum if bombing people isn't war, i don't know what the hell is. so the question is is isis worth a war.

the question for us as a nation is is isis worth a war? if we admit that there are real risks here. these are hard, hard questions. so, stlfr, congress does not want to ask or answer them. congress has now decided what they're going to do. they're going to let it happen without themselves weighing in on it at all.

the house tomorrow is going to vote on the far simpler matter on will the ugs should provide weapons and training to syrian rebels. the house is doo you will to vote on it tomorrow. the senate, thursday or friday. what they're voting on is not the question of whether or not the u.s. should be using our own military force in iraq and syria. instead, what they're voting on is this separate question of whether the ugs should be up arming rebel groups in southeasterly ya. that's supposed to be an easier question, right? i mean, yeah, sure, isis is also a rebel group inside syria. and you don't want to arm and train them when the whole idea is you're supposed to be fielging them. that he means you have to survey the syrian landscape. not the ones that might turn over to isis it should be easy,

right. >> >> john kerry claims u.s. has

found, a, moderate syrian rebel. secretary of state had successfully located a, moderate syrian rebel. the great andy borowitz is just making fun. >> it's a good reminder that the u.s. can somehow find the good rebels in syria. there's a reason why there's been no formal congress to go

ahead with that on a large scale. lis kill enough that the administration has been really open about the risks. all the way to the top. even the military, he said the risks include x treemists giving access that we were trying to provide to the moderates. he says if the u.s. arms and trains the syrian rebels, we may end up having an inadd ver tant association with war crimes due to vetting difficulties. the same doubts today were voiced in congress. prepared for the same vote of the same piece of this problem.

how can we have any hope that if they do agree, not just asaad, they will continue to do and not aline themselves with isil. i have a hard time upsing why they're fighting isis who's fighting the same religions. it doesn't make any sense. >> joe manson today voicing doubts. those are coming from both sides of congress to both seeds of the alleged. last month; president obama himself expossessed his own doubt. with respect to syria, it was

always against the arms. they were going to be able to battle not only a well-armed state, but back to buy iran, a battle-hardened hesbola. >> there's no as mum capacity as you hope. >> congress doesn't want to vote on whether the u.s. ought to start waging war in the middle ooegs. instead, they have broken off an easier decision. probably tomorrow in the house, but you know senators want to go home. so you know they're going to push that up to thursday.

there's no way to think that this would be an easy vote. otherwise, it would have been decided mopts ago -- years ago. heefr's one really important thing. >> are you saying that now because you're trying to find people? >> there's not as much capacity as you would hope. >> it's kind of broken up because you'reing to arm people.

this little piece oaf it is already happening. its's the cia doipg it. it's not guilty a secret, really. it's already happening. for months to arm and train those rebels. >> shouldn't we know if what we've done already is working? if yif we've been doing this already for months, has it been successful? shouldn't we wonder why we don't do more of it? joining us now is nancy ucef. she else conducted under the cia to arm and train the syrian rebels.

so the cia has already been trained by rebels in syria. has it met the objectives that it set out in the first plaes? >> given the progress that isis has made, the territory that they've taken; it is a program that has struggled. it really strepgtens some of the challenges that this pramt has faced. perhaps the biggest one of all

and will continue to fight this eft is a lot of these don't want to fight isis immediately. and so convincing them to change their object efs and align themselves with people, their fellow rebels, to fight isis, and that is, in the immediate, the biggest challenges facing this program. there's a political question while letting them drift until after the midterm elections. you say they've already trained about 3,0 0 rebels through the existing program. they're saying they'd want to do about 5,000 rebel else over the

course of a year. would they be doing it in a very cig nif can way? >> it would be by the military. so that would be the biggest change. but, perhaps, most -- the biggest chaeng you would see where the cia was covert. this would be training depending on how these fighters do. >> that's a very interesting and structural point. yeah, you can avoid political debate.

false vating. thanks for helping us talk about this part of this tonight. i appreciate it. they're covering those hard angles on this stuff. so lots more to come, including some breaking news on the nfl scandal and a big, long thing about space scandal. stay with us. stay with us. that's not hworks. i mean it's so simple. it's like my car insurance. i saved 15% in fifteen minutes. well esurance could have saved you money in half that time. three in a row! sweet!

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[cat meows] ♪meow, meow, meow, meow... it's more than just a meal, it's meow mix mealtime. with great taste and 100% complete nutrition, it's the only one cats ask for by name. there is some breaking news to report at this hour. the nfl union officially filed an appeal. ray rice was officially handed a two-game suspension earlier this year and charged with a third degree felony. the nfl, after that, decided to change that sentence. they dded, instead, to suspend ray rice indefinitely. the tape showed mr. rice knocking his then-fiance unconscious. the nfl players' union had until

mid night tonight to make a decision on whether they would appeal ray rice's punishment. >> there was not a fair and impartial process that caused the nfl to switch from its original two-game suspension from the indefinite forever suspension that ray rice has now. ray rice was not afforded due process in this decision. and that's why they're sticking up for him in this appeal. the players' union tonight has also asked that roger goodell recuse himself from this case entirely. that's in part because roger would likely be called as a witness in this appeal. he shouldn't be judging a case in which he's also a witness. the nfl hadn't commented on whether roger goodell will

recuse himself. there's breaking news that ray rice is officially appealing the sus mention. as much as they'd really like to put this behind them, the nfl is not butting this behind them any time soon. especially today as more more and more sponsors continue with the league. we'll let you know as we learn more. we'll be right back. blank black.

something is changing in election land.

watch this, nate silver at 538.c oorks m, his statistical model, predicted back at the end of august predicted that republicans would take control of the senate. that's late august. as of last night, he's dropped that probability from 60% to 65%. democrat's chances getting better, republicans chances getting worse. and it's not just 538. when nate silver left the new york times and took all of that monster web traffic with him, the new york times in his wake built something called the upshot. and the upshot at the new york times said the republicans had a 65% chance of taking over the senate. the republicans have a 65% chance. now, them cropped that probability from 65 to 50/50. both parties have an equal likelihood of winning the majority in the senate.

and it's not just 538 and the new york times. the washington post election wijt, it's called election lab, in hate august, the republicans have a 57% probability of taking over the senate. now, they have dropped that probability from 57 to 50.1%. so at 538, the new york times twa wa post, all of these statistical sites coming up with a big picture prediction about what's going to win in november, all three of them are saying that republicans have an even or better chance of taking over the senate for the rest of the obama presidency. one source that's disagreed with others for weeks now is the princeton consortium that's led by sam wong. he correctly predicted every outcome of the race in the country in the senate in 2012. all along, in this election

cycle, sam wong, in princeton, they were saying the opposite. they were saying at the end of august that it was the democrats who had a 70% chance of holding on to the senate. >> that was the sam wong view at the end of august. well, today, look. like everyone else, he, too, thinks that the democrats chances are getting better. >> the people who are up, today, they're way up on the democrat's chances. what's going on?

why is all of this turning around and happening right now? well, of course, it is multiple states, mull pl races, multiple polls, lots of different numbers. but it is also one amazing story. which happened today in a littl little-noticed state supreme court in the middle of the country. and that story is next. ( whistle bl)ws alright, we got one shot. let's go twins-right 24 stretch. hit him with a hard count,ne... all diamonds on 3, break! see if they'll tip their hand. the nfl trusts duracell quantum to power their game day communication. they're blitzing up the gut! get out of the pocket! hut!

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sfx: blowing sound. does breathing with copd... ...weigh you down? don't wait ask your doctor about spiriva handihaler. as they try to win control of the u.s. senate, they had not counted on trying to fight for the republican seat they already hold in kansas. if his laze sdi day campaign schedule is anything to go by, pat roberts had also expected not to have to fight very hard to hold onto his seat. but, now, they've appeared to have woken up to the fact that they have a real fight on their hands in blood red, kansas, of all places.

>> okay, that ad, fresh today from the newly re-invigorated campaign. but look at the headlines. it's very fine print, but where it says roberts marshals efforts to put defense facility? that's from seven years ago. this one is from six years ago. that's from 2008. you can see senator roberts in

the light-colored suit. in a way, he did win. at one point, they were going to get that thing built in kansas. bringing home the pork. yeah, jobs. that was a really long time ago. senator roberts actually voted to defund that project. that's fine. folks change their mind. embarrassing. it has not been a great reboot for the pat roberts campaign: he's a long-time incouple bant. that all changed when the democrat dropped out. that made way fwr a popular

independent candidate to run against senator roberts. pat roberts is losing his seat to the independent guy who's running against him. we'll have more on that in a second. the national republican party has stepped in to try to rescue their kansas candidate. republy caps are also fighting for him in court today. they heard arguments about whether that democratic kand cat would be allowed to drop out of the race. he will not be allowed to quit. so now the kansas supreme court has to decide whether to keep him on the ballot.

it could come down as early as tomorrow. there isn't much wiggle room here. even a court-imagine mandated three-day race, that may not be enough to help senator roberts. it shows the independent in the race leading the senator by ten points if they are in a two-way race. that's head-to-head. the senator trailing by ten. pat roberts is still trailing if a three-way race by seven points. this is still a lot, especially

when you're the incouple bant. this is not seven weeks from the election. joining us now is dave helen, political reporter for the kansas city star. fwraet to see you. thanks for being back with us. >> watching those oral arguments to redikt what the court is going to do. but will you do it anyway? >> well, since you ask, yes, i will speculate a built. you don't want to prejudge in court because sometimes they're on both sides of an issue. but in this case, you did get the sense that the judges, many of them democrats, are pretty skept wall of this idea.

so without being too aggressive, he says he has no interest if rumming for office, should actually be forced to be on a ballot. >> i'm glad you asked the issue about precedent here. one of the things they went stlu with the law lawyers were other sbangss of people trying to drop off the 3w58 lot. in general, with those other precedents, were they perfectly explicit with the letter of the law and why they wanted to get off the ballot to the terms that they didn't meet? >> no.

>> chris kobak has said specifically you have to declare. some of them have said i'm too busy, i have to worry about my other scheduling. and kobak said, at that point, i have the discretion to determine whether or not the excuse in the letter is sufficient to meet the standard in the law. tony for chad taylor seemed to have some sympathy. >> how do you assess the orman campaign? >> remember, rachel, three months ago, nobody had ever heard of greg orman.

he was a virtually unknown in the state. i think the spots are very sort of neutral. they're very positive. you mentioned thes are cuers from the east coast of kansas. allen cobb is closely connected with coke industries and merp prosperities. we don't know if there will be a lot of third party involvement from the third side of this race. at this point, greg ormann is running an almost-perfect campaign. >> all right.

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possible to miss disco because it did not last that long. if you missed the disco era you probably do not remember that there were disco subgenres, euro disco typified by abba seen here singing about "waterloo." a subvariant of polish disco that survives to this day, they call it disco polo and one called space disco. see what you missed out on. this was a spacey era in pop culture. disco there to take advantage of it "star wars" came out and this was written in 1979 and the lyrics were about "star wars" fighting about the federation. ♪ to a starship trooper in outer space ♪

♪ the federation coming at you under space ♪ >> we conquer -- perhaps the foremost example of space disco, the song "i lost my heart to a starship trooper." top ten single in the uk and launched the singing career of the teenage lead vocalist sarah brightman and got her start in space disco and now wants to go to space itself. she is in her 50s and sold anyotens of millions of albums and now she plans to become a space tourist. she's paid something like $15 million for the privilege of traveling along as a passenger on a russian spaceflight. she's tentatively due to go up next year at around this time. she traveled to russia already to do some preliminary medical testing to see if she's fit enough to make the trip into space. but here's where vladimir putin comes in. and blackmail. right now, yes, it is

embarrassing that the russian space agency has to fund itself by offering $50 million tickets to celebrities, yes. but right now the russian space agency is the only ride in the world for anybody who wants to go to the international space station. since the u.s. space shuttle program shut down in 2011 when we want to put our astronauts on the space station we have to get in line and pay the russians to get us into space. they have a monopoly on manned spaceflight and like any good monoplist, they are abusing it. quietly the russians announced anyone wanting to get a ride into space with them or ride along on a soyuz spacecraft now may have to do their preflight training in cripply. russia invaded and took it over and they do not recognize it as part of russia you ukraine and russia says they're about to insist that the mandatory cosmonaut training for people

who want to ride into space with them will happen in the part of russia that is called crimea. so you don't recognize it as part of russia? you can't fly into space. that goes for you, american astronauts, planning to fly to the space station in the next couple of years and, yes, that goes for you sara brightman, would-be starship trooper. everyone has to kiss his ring and go to russia if they want to go to space. that's what russia announced. nasa said they would fix it. they announced the russian monopoly of flying people into space is over. boeing and the company spacex founded by the tesla guy will receive multibillion dollar contracts to get the u.s. back into the business of delivering humans safely into and out of space within the next three years. spa spacex has been delivering cargo to the space station but will be delivering humans as well, may not be soon enough to prevent

sarah brightman to go to russia which he calls blackmail along with her $52 million but would stop more in the future. her space tourist mandatory space training due to start in january 2015. spacex and boeing are supposed to be ready to take humans in 2017. maybe she'll decide she can wait. now it's time for "the last word" with lawrence o'donnell. >> once again, i learned an awful lot of things i didn't know in that last report. space disco. nothing like it. thank you very much. well, the defense department has finally figured out what to call what they are doing in iraq and syria. >> today the pentagon's top brass headed to capitol hill. >> secretary of defense chuck hagel and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff martin dempsey. >> to explain the president's strategy to wage war against isis. >> this will not be easy or