there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. hillary clinton's big campaign plans. ♪ good morning. thanks for getting up with us in what is a crisp fall morning here in new york. we've got a packed show for you today. we're going to be unveiling -- be ready for it -- three brand-new polls from three pivotal races that could decide control of the u.s. senate a month from now. we'll be talking to political reporters on the ground in each of those three states. again, three brand-new polls in those key states coming up later in the show. there's also the question of whether congress will vote to authorize president obama's use of military force against isis before the end of this year

maybe early next year sometime. maybe never. does the inaction allow members of the house to point their fingers and shift the blame? we'll discuss that with a member of the house intelligence committee. we'll also bring you the latest on the developing story in dallas where the first ebola patient diagnosed with the united states is now in critical condition. we'll have a live update from dallas just a few minutes from now. but we are going to begin this morning with this. look at the calendar there. we are less than one month away from election day. one of the biggest names in american politics is now ready to make her move finally. maybe not in the way you might think. hillary clinton, according to politico's maggie haberman, has put together a schedule that will take her to some of the top political battlegrounds, trying to boost her party in what is a very difficult midterm political environment. and also maybe reacclimating herself to life in the campaign spotlight. she's going to start in pennsylvania this week to help democratic candidate for governor there. she'll also be in illinois. that's the state where she was born and raised to campaign with

embattled democratic governor pat quinn in that state. clinton's schedule will also take her to iowa and new hampshire, surprise surprise two pivotal early voting states for president there. she'll also be in florida for charlie crist, kentucky for allison lundergan grimes. georgia for democratic senate candidate michelle nunn. just the highlights of what's going to be a very busy month for hillary clinton. this october seems to be both 2014 and 2016 at the same time. the climate, as we said, is tough for democrats, and president obama's low poll numbers mean there are a lot of places that he can't campaign this fall. so can hillary clinton make a difference now for her party? joining me to discuss this on set with us we have sahil kapur for "talking points" and joan walsh. former mitt romney 2012 campaign adviser and republican political consultant katie packer-gage.

thanks for being here. joan, and thank you in particular. i know you were up late last night with the san francisco giants game. thank you for being here. so hillary clinton. on the campaign trail, we've all been sort of waiting for this moment. we knew she was going to be out there at some point, but now we have some states some candidates, we know where she'll be going. it does look to me -- i mean you can certainly say jeanne shaheen in new hampshire, that's an important senate race. iowa is an important senate race. these are also very important 2016 states. >> yeah, she's going to look at states that help her out as well as help some democrats out. i've been waiting. we all know that the women's vote is going to be crucial in 2014. and she does inspire and galvanize democratic women like no other person. so it's great to see her out there. i wonder if we'll see her in wisconsin where mary burke has been neck and neck with scott walker, but her support among women has just lessened just a couple points but, you know she could use a shot in the arm.

there are lots of places where she could be helpful, and i hope she's as busy as she can possibly be. >> does she provide -- because one of the stories this year has been with president obama's poll numbers down sort of in the lower 40s, and a lot of the battleground being in republican states. does hillary clinton provide a boost for democrats there? >> well i'm sure -- i'm certain that she provides a boost among democrat voters. of course that's the reason that they're putting her out there. but, you know, i think that this constant rollout of her campaign, first the book tour and now this and the actual campaign, you know i think that, you know certainly the press corps is waiting with bate bated breath, but at some point you get burnout on the hillary clinton campaign that really started, you know about a day after the 2012 election. >> we're talking burnout, is that a real problem, a concern for them sahil? >> i think that's on their mind. i think that's on the clinton's mind and the hillary handlers' mind that they don't want that

to happen. that's why everything is very calculated and strategic. she stayed away from the midterm campaign trail this whole time. to me it seemed like she was going to be doing that strategically because she doesn't want to necessarily jump into the fray when they're going to lose a bunch of seats. but now she's acting like a party nominee already. she's going to places like kentucky and georgia where the democrats are underdogs, not likely to win. you don't do that. iowa and new hampshire, i get that. colorado. >> it's true. the other seems to be pennsylvania where the democratic candidate is i don't know, 30 points ahead of the republican. she is pencilling in a couple of victories here it seems, too. i guess when you talk about ricks here for hillary clinton in the position she's in right now, i guess two risks are one, you go to a bunch of states where maybe it's not your fault that the democrats don't end up doing well and you could get blamed for that. the other risk is two, she has tried very hard over the last two years to stay out of the day-to-day political debate in this country, not to have to take clear positions that could come back to haunt her, that

could divide her base divide independent voters in the fall. you go into these races and that becomes a lot tougher now. >> but it's time. i would flip something katie said, actually, on its head. i think it's the media that has clinton fatigue and they don't miss an opportunity to say she's off her game. we're bored. we're hearing too much from her. i think on the book tour when she's in smaller cities when she is out with the democratic base, when she is out with groups of women, women were lining up around the block for her book. and i think you're going to see the same kind of factor among women who are hungry to see hillary clinton at this point. i'm not worried about fatigue in that sense. i also think it gives her a chance -- you know she's been secretary of state. we know what she thinks about international policy but she hasn't had much of a voice on domestic policy. i saw her at a center for american of progress event a couple weeks ago where she talked about a women's agenda but this gives her also a chance to preview her domestic agenda

on the 2014 campaign trail. and i think that can help especially with these women candidates as well. >> but i think what you also saw is time after time after time she was tripping over herself during her book tour. and they were constantly having to play cleanup with you know comments that weren't really part of their rollout plan. and i think that's also the shortened schedule. >> are you talking about the comments about, you know just don't do stupid stuff? some of that seemed intentional to me on some level. it seemed like she was trying to create distance without being -- >> i'm not really talking about that. i'm talking about things like you know crying poor because they couldn't come up with the mortgage payments for multiple homes. i've been involved in dozens of focus groups with women. and that has come up. and they say don't tell me that you're having trouble making ends meet when you can't make mortgage payments on multiple homes. this isn't, you know the struggles that everyday americans are having. and her people are very aware that they were constantly having to sort of you know mop up

after her. i think that's why you're seeing a three-week you know shortened campaign schedule. >> she has made mistakes but i don't think we're anywhere near the point of fatigue. the fact that she's strategically rolling this stuff out. she's not on tv every day. she could be if she wanted to. >> we're two years away from the next election and people are going to get a little burned out on seeing hillary every single day, every move being monitored, you no he. i'm looking ahead. >> she seems aware of that though. >> she's also the most popular woman in america. i really think it cuts both ways. and i think mostly she's an asset. and i think her staff is probably really happy that she got that dead-broke comment out of the way two years before. >> that's the flip side of being out there so early. yes, i'm sure -- i'm getting the sense that we're going to hear that comment a little bit. meanwhile, we talk about hillary clinton. we talk about the clintons. there's also the president himself who made it clear on thursday that while he's not officially on the ballot this fall, the midterm election is a

referendum on his policies. that's what president obama said on thursday. and republicans immediately took that line, turned it into an ad. >> allison grimes says the selection is not about her support for barack obama and his failed policies. >> i'm not barack obama. >> but obama himself says a vote for alison is a vote for his policies. >> i'm not on the ballot this fall but make no mistakes, these policies are on the ballot. >> while president obama's poll numbers may be keeping him away from many midterm battlegrounds, there's also his very popular wife who is hitting the campaign trail, at least a little bit. michelle obama was in massachusetts on friday with martha coakley, the democratic candidate for governor there. she also campaigned for the democratic candidate for governor in maine. she'll be traveling to wisconsin tomorrow for mary burke running for governor there. as "the new york times" notes, she is mostly campaigning for governor, not for the u.s. is that the. she's also staying away from

arkansas and louisiana. so it's interesting because we look at michelle obama obviously typically the first lady would be less, you know seen as less polarizing, less politicized than the president. and you think the hillary clinton back in 1998 in the midterms then, she was also over the place, although the circumstances were very different with her husband's impeachment and monica lewin and i all oflewinsky. it's striking to me the first lady the obama campaign people are so sensitive to you send her into a red state. everything gets polarized. democratic candidate may not be happy to have her there either. and so even michelle obama is only going to a handful of states here. >> it's impossible to see her on the campaign trail and think of a swing voter who doesn't associate her with her husband. and dan balls had a really good piece in "the post." to the extent that they can put that out of the way. medicaid, we're fine with it. contraceptive, we love it.

they don't want to have that debate. so it's going to be about the president. midterm campaigns are usually about the president. to the extent that that's true they want to make this as much about him as possible. when the first lady goes out there, it's impossible. >> i saw her in milwaukee. i was with her in milwaukee last monday for mary burke, and she was tremendous. she packed the wisconsin center. and the crowd was delirious. young voter pitch. she's going to madison for a kind of younger college liberal pitch. where she's effective, she's tremendous. all races use surrogates in particular ways. i don't think that this is that extraordinary. >> i think that you know the suggestion that republicans are trying to make this race about president obama, he's the one that made the comment a couple of days ago that said that this is going to be a referendum on my policies. and when you have candidate after candidate after candidate that's voted with the president 95% of the time, it is about the president and his failed policies.

that's what's on the ballot. and that's what people are voting on. so to go out with a reminder i think is something that these candidates are very careful about. i don't know that it's the white house. >> was it surprising that the president said what he said on thursday? just given what we know about the reality of the midterm campaign, this is being played on republican turf more than it is -- >> the candidates probably winced when they heard that. >> it's one of these cases where the ad literally wrote itself. >> he's trying to strike the balance, they need minorities. they need women. they need young people to turn out. >> even women have turned their backs on obamacare. that's not a particularly great issue for them. >> that's a little bit later in the show. we'll pick that point up later in the show. >> i really -- i really think that it cuts both ways. that statement was to the base. but it's a case where you're not narrow casting. it's going out to everyone. but if his voters turn out in 2014 like they did in 2012 this is a landslide for democrats.

that's not likely to happen. but reminding them that they can't just vote every four years, which is another michelle obama's pitch in wisconsin is very important. >> it's just those two dynamics that are in conflict with each other. the type of electorate that turns out in the midterm and the type that turns out in the presidential year. it creates an interesting situation. anyway we have more on what's going on in the homestretch of the midterm campaign and what it could mean for another campaign two years from now. that's right after this. that dares to work all the way until the am. new aleve pm the only one with a sleep aid. plus the 12 hour strength of aleve. there comes a time in everyone's life when you want more. like a new meticulously engineered german sedan. finely crafted. exactingly precise. desire for such things often outpaces one's means. until now. hey matt, new jetta?

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all right. while we're only 29 days out from election day for this year's midterms, the republican landscape for 2016 is also taking shape. former president george w. bush said this week made some news this week, when he said that he thinks his brother, jeb, wants

to be president. and in his opinion, jeb should go for it. >> i, of course was pushing him to run for president. he of course was saying i haven't made up my mind. yeah, i think he wants to be president. i think he'd be a great president. he understands what it's like to be president for not only the person running or serving, plus family. he's seen his dad. he's seen his brother. and so he's a very thoughtful man, and he's weighing his options. >> jeb bush who's also been stepping out onto the midterm campaign trail, like hillary is about to says he plans to make a decision next year. and if he does run, looks increasingly possible, at least, that bush and mitt romney could end up facing off to be the establishment choice in the republican party. the 2012 republican nominee certainly sounded like a candidate in a profile this week. "the new york times" writes that romney shrugged off the recent attention but is noticeably playing along. i thought this was amazing and

telling romney wanted to make sure that absolutely everything he said was on the record for that interview. do you have a tape-recorder, he asked the reporter? a notebook? near the end of the interview when he told him he was turning off the tape-recorder so they could relax while they ate lunch, romney told him to keep recording. so a lot of interesting things going on in the republican world right now. one of the things that i sense there is some bush fatigue on the republican side. here's why i say that. i think the interest in mitt romney speaks to this to a certain degree. the fact that we're talking about a losing candidate maybe running again. when you poll them when you put mitt romney's name in a poll with bush mitt romney is up there in the 30s on the republican side. and bush is like in the high single digits. and jeb bush mitt romney have got to have about the same name recognition. i think there might still be bush fatigue. >> certainly the name bush has the same level of name recognition. i'm not sure jeb does. he ran nationally. he was on people's tv screens

every day for a year for mitt romney. i think that if jeb bush makes the decision to run, he'll run a very different kind of campaign and be a different person than his brother was. and so you know he'll have the opportunity to do that. and certainly he was a very popular governor and a very difficult state in florida. so i think time will tell if he ends up doing that. you know as far as governor romney is concerned, i think there's a very high regard for him. he turned out to be -- >> do you want him to run again? >> i don't know -- i don't know how to answer that. it doesn't really matter what i want. >> you work for the guy. you probably have some strong feelings. >> if he ran, i would be first in line to support him. i think he was a great candidate for president, and i think he would have made a great president. i think the american people are having a little buyer's remorse. and are starting to look back at some of the things he said that you know a lot of the media and certainly the democrats poked fun at during his campaign. and so people are taking a second look at him and starting to think maybe he looks more and more like a world leader. whether he runs or not, you know, i don't know. i don't have inside information on that. but certainly i would support him.

>> what -- sahil, what do you think of romney? i have been saying for a while i think it's more real -- this is just a hunch i don't have any inside information either -- i have a hunch that there's a scenario there he's looking at. >> there's certainly a scenario that he would consider running. i don't know that he will. he's feeling it out. he wants to put the idea out there. there's certainly a lot of support for him in the establishment. it's unclear what the field will look like. it's clear what the tea party side is going to look like with paul rubio and others. on the establishment side it's not clear what that's going to look like. romney is one of them. chris christie is another one who could lock up that vote. jeb bush is in the mix although he's having a little trouble locking up the immediate family vote. >> an important base. >> that's what i look at. >> the other point i would make is there's absolutely no down side to keeping his options open. more attention, more higher speaking fee, more book sales. >> interviews. >> nothing to lose. more interviews.

>> barbara bush if jeb bush runs, i'm sure she'll be first in line to sign up. she's a very proud mama. >> eventually if that happens. >> the down side for romney if he eventually goes forward with it is what history ends up saying about a guy who runs three times. we have the person who runs once and then runs again. but to get the nomination and to run again. and if he ends up being denied the nomination after that his place in history, then takes a hit. >> you know it's as if he watched that really friendly warm hbo documentary, right, and saw my staff couldn't even capture that guy. and the american people would really like that guy. and there might be a little bit of that that's true. however, he's not running in a vacuum. he might well win the nomination because i think that the three tea party guys we could talk about forever, none of them is ready for primetime in my opinion. but then again, he faces probably hillary clinton. and he faces the fact that i

don't see that he brings any new -- any new parts of the coalition to the table. there's really been no progress made on the fronts of women, latinos, nobody tries for african-americans anymore. asian-americans who used to be reliable republican voters. he doesn't do anything to change the electoral -- to change the number, really. >> what he does change, according to this article apparently, is he travels everywhere now assuming there's a tape-recorder. the 47% remark. >> that's just smart. >> yeah. it's smart but it's depressing in a way, too, that the lesson -- and maybe it is smart politics for everybody, just always assume that everything is being taped. but you can see, we talk about we don't like robotic candidates. that's what we're going to get. >> some people i think, are more able to express their core values in the same way from room to room. you know i know he's blaming his supporter who was more disparaging and more of an elitist in talking about "those people." but there's also -- there could

have been a courageous moment where he stood up and said you know, i'm going torefor the votes of everybody and i'm not writing off that 47%. >> i don't think he was blaming anybody. i think he was explaining a scenario where he was asked a question in what he thought was a closed environment and he was speaking, you know in a way that, you know maybe sounded more like an operative. i've heard a million democrat operatives during the campaign and since comment on the fact that theregroups that are unavailable to both sides in an election. he wasn't talking about being a president. he was talking about being how you campaign. and he was just explaining the situation. >> can i just step in there? democrats tear their hair out over the white working-class votes. democrats are -- >> well, we never hear about that. >> oh, really? i participated in a roundtable in a magazine about it. there's a project, the center for american progress. >> it certainly never got the kind of coverage that 47% got. >> that's a problem of coverage. >> regardless of what we think about the 47% comments regardless of what he meant, if romney runs again, he's out of

the political arena now. everybody's popularity goes down. he jumps in. all of the things that dogged him then are going to come back. >> i'm with you. i think ultimately look my guess is he ultimately won't run, but i just look at a republican party where jeb bush is having a big trouble with common core immigration, we all know about christie. we don't even know if scott walker will get re-elected. we see a scenario but i don't think he'll jump in too eagerly in the immediate future pimplts next, the latest on the spread of ebola virus. a live report from dallas. that's after this. [♪] great rates and safety working in harmony.

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i have the worst cold with this runny nose. i better take something. dayquill cold and flu doesn't treat your runny nose. seriously? alka-seltzer plus cold and cough fights your worst cold symptoms plus your runny nose. oh, what a relief it is. as we've been reporting this morning, the first ebola patient diagnosed in the united states remains in critical condition in a dallas hospital. doctors downgraded thomas eric duncan's condition yesterday. family members say that when they tried calling the hospital to talk to him yesterday, they were told he couldn't speak because he had been intubated.

nbc news's mark potter is live in dallas this morning. so mark we were hearing when we first learned about this story last week that he had been -- he was in serious condition. now he's been downgraded to critical condition, apparently intubated. sounds like things have taken a turn for the worse with this patient. >> reporter: yeah. the signs do not look good. and the cdc director on the "today" show just a short while ago said there is great concern about this particular case. as you said he has been downgraded. he is now being called critical. as of friday he was said to be in serious condition. family members in north carolina tell us that they have been told by medical personnel here in dallas that he is on both a ventilator and a dialysis machine and that he is being experimental drugs. and there is that story that they were able to talk to him by phone from tuesday through friday morning. but when they tried saturday they were told that he could no longer speak because of the treatment that he was being given. but one of our station in dallas, kxas was told by a medical source that even though

he is on life support, the fact that he is young, 42 years old, does give some hope for his survival survival. but again, everyone is saying that this is certainly a dicey case, and they're watching it very closely. currently health officials are monitoring about 40 people who may have had contact with him. they're also looking at nine people who they know had contact. they're watching them very carefully. that includes four family members that he was -- had been staying with. so far none of them have shown any signs of ebola infection. but authorities say should that happen they will be ready for it this time. steve? >> my thanks to nbc news' mark potter live from dallas. joining me now is dr. eileen marty from florida international university. she's an infectious disease expert who recently traveled to nigeria to help contain the ebola outbreak. doctor, thanks for joining us. so i want to first start by asking you what your sense is -- i mean right now as mark just said, all of these people who have been around this patient in

dallas are being monitored, are being tested. no signs yet that it's spread in his circle beyond him. we've had a number of reports over the last few days of possible ebola patient here or there in the united states. none of these have turned into anything yet. what is your sense so far of how well the united states has done in containing this? >> no the united states is doing a very good job. it's just a very difficult job to do. and we're going to keep on seeing this as long as there is a public health emergency international concern that's completely out of control in three countries in west africa. and there continue to be flights coming in that carry individuals that either have traveled there or are from there. >> right. i mean that's sort of the eye-opener here with this situation in texas. obviously it's a tragic story for this individual but for americans looking at this they say, well this was a guy who had had clear, obvious exposure to ebola in west africa was able to get into the united states with no problem.

and again, it looks like it's contained just to him in this case. but it opened the eyes of a lot of americans, i think, to how potentially it would be for the disease to enter here. as we said you played a role in nigeria in containing ebola over there. nigeria is sort of one of the success stories relative to liberia. what can be done in liberia and in west african nations that are struggling to contain this what was done right in nigeria that they can learn from and that could help everybody in the world? >> well nigeria had a number of advantages over liberia in the sense that the nigerians reacted extremely quickly. they called for international help very, very early on. and the team that was put together was a fabulous team. so those are huge advantages over what happened in the three other nations where things got out of hand and grew and there's a lot of unknown cases out there. whereas in nigeria, it's more similar to what happened here in that we knew who the index case

was. we know -- and we know who his contacts are. and these contacts are being very carefully monitored. now, it is entirely possible that any one of the people particularly the nine who were very close contacts may, you know, manifest symptoms of ebola and may actually become patients, but that should not alarm us if it happens because, again, they're being closely monitored. they're kwaurn teequarantined, and it won't lead to further spread. >> my thanks to dr. aileen marty from florida international university for joining us. we appreciate that. coming up republicans are spoofing wedding dress shopping to try to appeal to women. but will it work? that's next. first the cookie at check-in.... then a little weekend to remember. join us for the celebration package...with sparkling wine,

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the rick scott is perfect. >> rick scott is becoming a trusted brand. he has new ideas that don't break your budget. >> but mom has other ideas. >> i like the charlie crist. it's expensive and a little outdated, but i know best. >> and don't forget the charlie crist comes with additional costs. >> that's an ad from the college republican national committee that got a lot of attention this week. it's supposed to be a send-up of the reality series "say yes to the dress" with the idea of attracting younger women into voting republican. but critics say it's insulting the very voters the gop is trying to win over. the latest example of republicans shooting themselves in the foot when it comes to broadening their base. all of this is related, of course, to the gender gap, what may be the single biggest factor in this year's midterm election. you've been hearing about the gender gap obviously in elections for a long time now, but here is what is new.

we are now looking at gender gaps in some races that are bigger than anything we've ever seen before. "national journal's" got bland look at the numbers and found some amazing results. democrat bruce braley for instance, is leading by 13 points among women in the iowa senate race. among men, the republican joni ernst, is up by 25. that's a gender gap of 38 points in that race. put that in perspective, the obama/romney election in 2012 set the record for the biggest gender gap ever in a presidential race. and that was only 20 points. we're seeing this in a lot of places. north carolina, kay hagan, democrat leads thom tillis by 18 points. tillis is leading men by 14. that's a gender gap of 32 points. similar dynamic in colorado. and in the governor's race in wisconsin as well. you can see it on the screen there. women were the reason that president obama held off mitt romney in 2012. the democrat strategy for 2014 has been to try to increase their support among women as

much as possible. in race after race they've sought to play up issues like education, contraception, health care, designed to appeal to female voters. in colorado udall has even made abortion an issue. what we're seeing in these numbers is that democrats are accomplishing their mission here. but what we're also seeing is the flip side of the gender gap. the male side. just as democrats are running up the score with women, republicans are doing even better than usual among men, and that has given us what we are now seeing in these numbers. some of the biggest gender gaps on record. this is a story to watch in the campaign homestretch. right now the gender gap is cutting both ways. but will one party end up benefiting more from it than the other? to talk about it i want to bring back in now joan walsh from salon, former mitt romney 2012 campaign adviser and katie packer-gage. you alluded to wisconsin earlier this the show. and the newest poll out of wisconsin shows scott walker leading mary burke overall i think by five points. >> among likely voters. >> right.

it shows him leading her among men by 28 points. women, 14 points. i'm astounded because i'm used to talking about the gender gap. but when you start seeing gaps like that i know it's one poll and those numbers can be a little fungible but when you start seeing 42-point gender gap, you start asking what's going on here. >> and i think scott walker made a boneheaded move this week when he pointed to that and sort of bragged about his support with men and basically said the problem -- the gender problem is mary burke has a problem with men. now, that may be true but if you're still out there trying to campaign for women's votes, it's a very odd thing to say. he still trails among women by 14 points. it used to be 18 points. so on her side mary burke, i think, could do a better job of showing that she's a trail-blazing woman and what her policies mean for women. but i think it's dangerous for scott walker to go around saying hey, i've got the men and she's got a problem with men. that's going to be off-putting to women. >> katie, it's interesting

because we come out of the 2012 election where all of the talk was the republicans need to sort of broaden, diversify their coalition. immigration was going to be the thing with latino voters as sort of a gateway for the republican party to re-establish a relationship. two years later immigration hasn't happened. obviously in 2012 a huge gender gap in that race. and now two years later, as joan says, you have scott walker running for wisconsin and essentially sending the message this week, hey, i think i can win this thing with the men's vote. >> well i don't know if that's what he was suggesting. but semantics aside, i'm thrilled to be having an actual discussion about this. historically when you talk about the gender gap, everybody assumes it's republicans lagging with women. i think the numbers you just showed should be, you know sort of scary for democrats as well. you know, that's not sustainable for them either. and you know i think part of the reason for that is that democrats in state after state, colorado's probably the best example of it. are literally running a one-issue campaign. i was out in colorado a few weeks ago. and every single ad that was on

television that was coming from mark udall and the democrats was about reproductive issues. and i think it's insulting to women to suggest that all they care about are reproductive issues, and i think it's insulting to men to not ever see what mark udall has to say about any other issue. and i think that's why you're seeing -- >> you think democrats are turning off male voters with the focus on trying to drive support with women. >> i don't just think it. i think the facts are bearing it out. i think as we start to see some issues rise to the forefront like national security issues as it relates to terrorism, as it relates to ebola, these issues are going to start to sort of percolate. and women are going to say, look, talk to me about something else. i'm more than just a set of reproductive organs. i'd like to hear where you stand on some of these other issues. >> first of all, mark udall is leading, so he's doing something right in his campaign. and second of all, scott walker is running away with men. >> certainly i would argue -- >> and i would argue that mary burke hasn't emphasized women's

issues nearly enough. so i don't think it's oh they're talking too much about the lady parts and men are going away. i think men -- >> well i was talking about colorado in particular on that front. >> men tend to be more conservative on government spending, on taxation. women tend to support a more robust social state, a more robust safety net, higher spending on education. so these issues, they're very much economic issues as well. i, too, get uncomfortable -- i'm staunchly pro-choice but i think the women's vote when we narrow it down to just being about contraception and abortion, that's problematic, too. it's about minimum wage. it's about paid family leave. it's about better wages and getting women out -- >> there's also the other thing, we say the gender gap. there's the gap within the gender gap between married women and single women. it's huge. republicans are actually doing quite well with married women, and there's no word for how bad they're doing among single women. that's the other gap. >> and that's why that ad "say yes to the dress" is so hilarious. they're trying to act like the old fuddy-duddy mom, actually,

my generation is republican. and the daughters are much more likely to be choosing the charlie crist dress. >> that's not an agenda that the republicans are pushing. that's the college republicans and you know "a" for good intentions on their part. that's not something that's coming out of the republican national committee or the senatorial committee. this is something a bunch of kids came together and came up with. it got a little buzz but it's not the republican plan. >> anything is helpful for republicans. >> i'm not going to sit here and defend that ad. >> how about the one where president obama is compared to an abusive boyfriend -- >> again, that was not our party. that was one donor out in california that thought that was a great idea. i tweeted about that immediately. i thought that that was a really boneheaded move for republicans to, you know to put that out there. that's not how women make their choices. >> thank you. >> joan and i are in agreement. >> we are in agreement on that. >> we're not looking at candidates as dates or husbands or wedding dresses.

>> i would argue this reflects a mentality among certain portions of the republican electorate that cannot get their minds around women voting for democrats or voting at all on a broad range of things that are important to them, personally and to their families. and just the default is that we're just idiots who care about online dating and picking out a wedding dress. >> i just don't want to acknowledge that a group of college republicans and one donor in california somehow speak for our party. i think that our party is much broader than that and i think that those are just bad examples of, you know, trying to reach the women's vote. i think i concur with that. >> college republicans haven't been this mischievous since karl rove was with them. see you next hour. coming up it helped president obama win the nobel peace prize. what has he done for nuclear disarmament in the five years since? that's next.comes a me in everyone's life when you want more. like a new meticulously engineered german sedan. finely crafted. exactingly precise. desire for such things often outpaces one's means.

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and tipped off the house which used all that energy to stay warm through the storm. chipmunk: there's a bad storm comin! narrator: the internet of everything is changing how energy works. is your network ready?" the united states will take concrete steps toward a world

without nuclear weapons. to put an end to cold war thinking, we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy and urge others to do the same. make no mistake, as long as these weapons exist, the united states will maintain a safe secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary and guarantee that defense to our allies including the czech republic. but we will begin the work of reducing our arsenal. >> that was the first big foreign policy speech of barack obama's presidency back in 2009. sometimes known just as the prague speech. it's the address in which the new president laid out his plan for nuclear disarmament, something that had been one of his passions even while he was in the u.s. senate. maybe he wouldn't be able to get rid of the entire u.s. arsenal, but he had ambitious plans, big plans, to reduce it significantly. when he won the nobel peace prize later that year the committee attached special

importance to obama's vision and work for a world without nuclear weapons. but now five years later comes this. a recent report from "the new york times" that's spawned other new reports as well that details how the obama administration is now engaged in a quote, nationwide wave of atomic revitalization. a $355 billion plan over the next decade to upgrade weapons, plants laboratories and delivery systems. the president who set out to move america and the world beyond nuclear weapons is now overseeing a massive rebuilding of the country's atomic infrastructure. it's a shift that former senator sam nunn one of obama's mentors on the subject of nuclear disarmament called, quote, hard to explain. the president, he said set out to create a brand-new direction on nuclear arms but has now ended up preserving the status quo. what happened? politics are part of it. the height of those ambitious first few months in office president obama and the man who

was then russia's president, dmetry medvedev hammered out a new arms treaty with the stated aim of achieving a nuclear-free world. obama also need to do win the approval of the u.s. senate two-thirds approval. so in order to reduce america's nuclear complex, republicans who had the key votes demanded that the rest of it had to be upgraded. president obama agreed to what has now turned into that ten-year, $355 billion plan. a plan in which the costs are expected to rise even higher up to a trillion dollars, possibly by the time the decade is over. few people would disagree that the u.s. nuclear complex was and is shabby at beast. but does a trillion dollars in new missiles new bombers, new warheads really fit in with obama's vision of working toward a nuclear-free world? is it what the nobel committee really had in mind when they gave them their top -- him their top prize. david sanger of "the new york times" joins us right now. david, thanks for taking a few

minutes. i'm curious, the politics of this involving negotiations with the u.s. senate a compromise with republicans. they want to sort of spiffied-up nuclear arsenal. on the other hand, when you look at the mission that the president laid out in the start of his presidency to sort of wean the country off of its nuclear arsenal, this is where we end up. do you see a contradiction here at all? >> well certainly there is. and that's why my colleague, bill broad, and i spent so much time documenting in that story what has happened. and basically, there were two parts of this bargain, steve, as you suggested. part one was the president's commitment to reduce the number of nuclear weapons. and the agreement that he reached with russia which was ratified by the senate in 2010. was a very modest agreement in that regard. it didn't require major reductions, but we're certainly way, way below where we were thankfully at the height of the cold war. but the other part of the bargain, of course as you said was this nuclear revitalization. to make sure that if your weapons are safe and reliable,

then you can go about reducing their overall numbers. but a lot of things have interceded. the president himself has not been able to negotiate a follow-on treaty. the russians aren't interested. with the actions that we've seen in ukraine, it's impossible to imagine that vladimir putin is going to get interested in it now or that the president could get it ratified if it happened. and the president doesn't want to act unilaterally to cut the size of our arsenal even though some of his former top aides, sam nunn included but also his defense secretary when he was still in the private sector has said we could probably cut them by one-third or more. without any great harm to safety. >> it almost sounds like you're describing a regression back to the cold war mentality there where, you know well we want to reduce ours but we don't want to look weak to them. we don't want to do something if they're not willing to do it. you have putin more of a

hard-liner. it almost feels like we're ramping up instead of backing down because we're scared of what the other side might perceive. >> well we're certainly ramping up in our capability to produce weapons because the revitalization of the nuclear laboratories, even though you're not producing more weapons, but instead managing to re-manufacture the old ones make them more reliable and so forth, that would offer a future president, if he had very different inclinations, he or she, then president obama does to ramp up the number of weapons quite dramatically. it's also hard to explain at a time that we're trying to convince iran not to build these kind of facilities so that they don't have a capability in the future. and when we're trying to convince pakistan not to revitalize its nuclear arsenal which, of course raises tensions in the most volatile part of the world. so it does seem to contradict a fair number of the president's own initiatives.

i don't think the president would argue with that. he would simply say we had to get a deal together in order to pass the treaty. >> yeah and that is the deal that we're now -- that we're now dissecting and dealing with i guess, for the next ten years that will leave the country with a sort of enhanced nuclear arsenal. my thanks to "new york times'" david sanger. really good reporting and thanks for joining us this morning. we appreciate that. >> thanks steve. lots more to talk about this morning. will congress hold a vote on air strikes against isis? will they ever hold a vote on that? we're minutes away also from some exciting and new polls in the top senate races in the country. brand-new numbers about to come out. another full hour of news and politics on "up" straight ahead.

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we have a lot to cover this hour in the worlds of politics and news. news on this to start with here another ebola patient here in the u.s. one was already treated and released is back in the hospital. we'll be checking in on why in a few minutes. we're also going to unveil brand-new and really surprising polling numbers from three key states in the battle to control the u.s. senate. but first, we want to begin this hour with what is already indisputably military response to combat isis. in just the last few days fighter jets and remotely piloted aircraft have conducted nine air strikes in syria and five in iraq against isis artillery positions and vehicles. this comes as isis released footage of a new beheading on friday of british aid worker allen henning. with that video, isis also threatened the life of another hostage. an american. he's a former soldier and aid worker from indiana named peter cassig. his family says he has converted to islam during his time in captivity and has taken the name abdul rahman. yesterday his parents released a

video noting their son's humanitarian work and care for the syrian people. >> our son, we hope that you will see this message from me and your father. we are so very proud of you and the work you have done to bring humanitarian aid to the syrian people. we implore those who are holding you to show mercy and use their power to let you go. >> congress has voted to approve giving moderate syrian rebels supplies and training. that's the only vote that's been held so far. many in congress seem to want to hold a vote on the entire authorization or at least they say they do. democratic leader nancy pelosi said this week that congress should vote on it in the upcoming lame-duck session. that's when members return to washington after the election but before the new congress is sworn in in january. house speaker john boehner has suggested that the lame-duck session is not the appropriate time for a war debate and that congress should wait until january.

congress has already skipped town until after the election with no new vote maybe until the new session. and so for now, the air strikes continue with the president saying he already has the authority to act on his own. but some brand-new polling data this is released just moments ago, shows that americans have little faith in air strikes and that they'll achieve what they're designed to. nearly two-thirds of americans, in a new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll nearly two-thirds of americans say that air strikes alone without ground troops will have no effect or only a slight effect on isis. brand-new polling numbers right there. the election is in 30 days. the new congress won't start until 90 days from now. a little more than three months ago that we first learned about this extremist al qaeda splinter group. too extreme supposedly even for al qaeda that was taking over large chunks of iraq and causing the iraqi army to fold in the face of its advance. so where will isis be three months from now? well will the congressional debate

even matter then? i'm joined by congressman adam schiff of california. congressman, thanks for joining us this morning. you have been out there. you are not only saying you want a vote. you actually put this in language. you've actually put language forward for a new legislation for use of military force. you are on the record with that. i saw this week that the democratic leader nancy pelosi saying she now thinks congress should be ready to talk about this and debate this in that lame-duck session after the election. have you talked to her specifically about your legislation, and do you know if she supports that? >> i haven't talked to her about my bill in particular. you know i'm not linked to any approach but my own, but i do think it's vitally important that when we come back into session, if not before that we have a vote on this. congress has the power to declare war. congress has that power alone. and if we abdicate that authority now, if we kick it over till next year or kick it it over any further, then future presidents are going to decide they can go to war without congress. and i think we'd have

tremendously negative repercussions both for congress as an institution as well as for the balance of power. so while i would love the resolution that i authored to be taken up i would just love to see us have that debate that the british parliament did and take up an authorization and make sure that we move forward in a constitutional way. >> so the president right now has authorized basically an open-ended campaign of air strikes in syria, in iraq designed to go after isis designed to support the iraqi military in its campaign against isis to protect itself from isis. that is what the president's authorized. that's what we're doing right now. what would your legislation allow for? >> well my legislation authorizes the president to use force against isil in iraq and in syria. it prohibits the use of ground troops in a combat mission. so it would limit the military mission in that respect, which is something the president said he wants to do in terms of that limitation. it also sunsets the original

aumf that original authorization passed in the days after 9/11 in about 18 months the same time that this new authorization would be sunset and immediately does away with the iraqi authorization to use force which really is not on point here. so it also cleans up some of these lingering authorizations that can go on indefinitely unless congress acts on them. >> how many of your colleagues do you think really actually do want to vote on this? >> well there's a growing number, i think, that genuinely want a vote that feel very uncomfortable about allowing the executive to go forward without congress. certainly, you know, there are many that might say that or many that won't even say that because they're happy to leave this all on the president's shoulders. that way they can blame the president if things go badly and they can celebrate and say why didn't we do it sooner if things go well. i think there's a growing body of members that recognize the constitutional obligation, and there's going to be a real push to take up something in the lame duck, notwithstanding the

speaker's resistance to doing so. >> is there an argument to be made there -- i mean, in terms of -- i mean i would argue that the right time to be having a vote in congress is now because people are going to vote a month from now, and people deserve to know where exactly member stands on this and what they think about this. when you do it in a lame-duck session, people have already voted. a lot of members aren't going to be accountable to voters. they're going to be out of office and on to other things. is there something to be said for the lame duck is not -- it's better to vote than not vote but the lame duck isn't the right time to be doing that? >> well you're absolutely right. and the reality is we should have never gone out of session. we should have stayed until we had this very important debate. there are few things more important than a vote on war or peace. and the president has said this will last years. that it amounts to war. and for us to go into recess is just inexcusable. and i find it all the more dubiously ironic steve, that you have a speaker saying well i can't bring up a vote on this because the president hasn't asked me to.

this from a speaker who was suing the president for using too much authority. there's nothing in the constitution that says the president has to ask. it merely says this is congress's obligation. so i find that extraordinarily questionable. there's nothing in the constitution also that says we can't have a war vote before an election. that's the most crass, i think, political consideration. i don't think we should have left. but having left, i think we ought to come back and have this vote as soon as possible. >> and final question to you. your plan the bill that you've put together the authorization you've put together, would not allow for the use of ground forces, ground troops. we hear this refrain all the time, no boots on the ground. no boots on the ground. we heard this from the president. and it sort of assumes that there's a mentality in this country that after a decade-plus of war, this country is tired of committing its troops overseas. and yet we've seen polling in the last week that's really surprised me where you asked people this this question. a plurality of americans now say they would support ground troops if military commanders say that is what's needed to get this

done. a plurality say they would support ground troops. we have that new polling out this morning showing an awful lot of pessimism among americans about whether air strikes alone will get this job done. does it surprise you to find that level of support for ground troops? >> well it surprises me a bit except when i think you dig into those numbers. if you ask people do they support people on the ground who may, for example, be able to spot and call on air strikes versus do you support having a multiyear ground mission like we had earlier in iraq or afghanistan, now in syria and iraq, most people i think, will say no to that question. it depends how you gin whatdefine what you mean by ground troops. the bottom line is that the massive occupation of another country or two countries just isn't likely to work. it's not likely to be effective. and while i understand people's skepticism that we can accomplish our objectives through the air or in combination with the forces that we're trying to work with on the ground, i think frankly, there's even greater reason for skepticism that another massive american occupation makes any

military sense. >> all right congressman adam schiff from california, appreciate the time this morning. thanks for that. bringing back the panel now, sahil kapur, msnbc contributor, salon.com's joan walsh and mouth campaign adviser katie packer gage. sahil, you're up there, you cover, you know capitol hill as well as someone. is there going to be a vote? >> i really doubt it. i think most members sort of get this is an extremely volatile situation and there's a high probability that things go badly. they're happy to sort of keep their hands clean and criticize when things go wrong. >> even this idea of a lame-duck session or boehner saying maybe in juneanuary, you think not at all? >> he's saying he's happy to have it, but he's going to wait for the president to request it. and the president doesn't think he needs it. so they're doing this little dance where they're both acknowledging the fact that there are real questions here. and the legal grounds that the president's using here is dubious, at best. but the speaker and the president are actually on the

same page here. they can't agree on the color of the sky most of the time but they're okay on the war issue. >> it's so cynical. i mean you know congressman schiff is right and congressman jack kingston said something much to the same effect last month, talking about -- >> republican congressman from georgia. >> republican congressman soon to leave. >> right. >> talking about his colleagues basically wanting to be able to blame it on the president, if it goes badly, or take credit for it and say he should have done it sooner if it goes well. this notion that they can't do it in a lame-duck session, i think it's ridiculous. obviously they should have done it before. they can come back and do it. we're still paying them. they still have a job. this is a war that began on their watch. i mean they voted to extend the bush tax cuts in 2010. lame-duck session. lame-duck sessions do do work. and this idea that that can't possibly happen -- >> it raises -- it's also true of democrats. who want to keep their hands clean. >> but the question of whether or not you have to have a vote in order to hear what people

think on this issue is sort of absurd. these candidates are out there. they're campaigning. they're attending town hall meetings. they're talking to reporters. you know it's easy enough to ask the question. i mean, the fact that it's going on already, it sort of begs the question of -- >> a congressman doesn't want to answer it. >> the question of whether or not there needs to be a vote these things are happening now. the question of asking for congress to vote i think what you're seeing the american people clamoring for is leadership. you know not a president that says here's all the things we're not going to do. you know telegraphing to our enemies, here's all the things that we're not going to do that you don't have to worry about. i think that that's a dangerous thing, and i think you're seeing the american people respond to that by going i don't know if we need ground troops. there are military experts that know the answer to these questions and we should listen to them. maybe things shouldn't be entirely on a political purposes. >> it seems like there should be a congressional debate to have their representatives in congress weighing the pros and cons and casting a vote.

>> and have it culminate in a vote. >> you can remember everybody in the run-up to the iraq war in 2003, in the fall of 2002 there was debate and there was a vote. in the run-up to the saddam hussein and kuwait in '91, there was a vote in congress. it was a very close vote. >> right. >> it raises the question to me if we ended up having some kind of a vote december or january, facts on the ground have been established by three, four months of an air campaign. so what if they have the debate and they say you know what? we don't want to do this and they vote no. what happens then? >> that's exactly why i think the president doesn't want to request this. he doesn't trust congress to tell him the time of day. and the speaker, i think, also doesn't want to be in a situation where he could be seen as messing up the u.s. strategy on this. so they're just trying to stay away from this. >> but it's thinkeir job. >> it is their job. it's congress's job. as you said congress can have a debate and set the program tera rm terrameters of what the president can or cannot

do. i think this is congress's job to declare war. >> it's a question too, of precedent for the future. the next president who comes along and decides hey, i want to do something militarily right here. >> that guy didn't need it so i guess i don't need it either. it widens presidential power. >> this could be very dangerous next time because this is a campaign, i think, that has broad support among the american people. but the next president can use the same legal authority to start a war that doesn't have that support. that could be dangerous. the legal precedent is troubling as well. >> from democrats and republicans, i've seen so many rank and files or back bencher members of the house over the last few weeks interviewed about this and they all say yes, i want a vote. it really feels like to me they know they can say that because their leaders are protectors. sure, go home and tell me you want a vote and be a stand-up guy, but at the end of the day, you won't have to do it. i don't like your pessimism, but you're probably right. next brand-new polls in the is that the and discussion with the state's top political reporters. three top reporters, three key states, three brand-new polls. we have the numbers next.

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all right. we've already talked about the new nbc/"wall street journal" poll numbers this morning showing skepticism among the american people about the potential effectiveness of air strikes. with the midterm election now less than one month away though right here we have the polls we've been talking all morning. hot off the presses now. these are brand-new numbers from three of the most crucial battleground states in the fight for control of the senate. these are numbers from nbc news and marist. they've been polling these three states. north carolina where democratic senator kay hagan is fighting to hold on to her seat. this is one democrats really need to win. we also have a brand-new poll here for kansas. it's where republican pat roberts is facing greg orman and also from iowa where democrat

bruce braley and republican joni ernst are vying for an open seat. one critical to both parties. we have experts on the ground to help put these numbers in context. joining me to talk about kansas we have dave helling of "the kansas city star. from north carolina, jim morrow reporter for "the charlotte observer." and tackling iowa race kathy abratovic at "the des moines register." we're going to go through these one by one. dave, we start with you in kansas. we're going to put i think the single most surprising number in these polls up right now. this is the senate race. it shows greg orman, the independent, now ten points ahead of pat roberts, the republican incumbent, ten points. 48-38 in kansas. dave, we've seen a number of recent polls that have shown orman with the lead. we have not seen one where he's up double digits. this is very surprising to me. it says greg orman -- greg orman is the front-runner in this race. >> yes. it is consistent. it's a little bit bigger margin steve, than in other polls, but it is consistent with other

polls in this respect. pat roberts has been stuck in the high 30s to the low 40s for months, and he hasn't been able to reset the race or break out in any way. he has not been able to find a way to give kansas voters to give him another look. you know he's been in office since 1981. if an incumbent republican in a republican state is stuck in the high 30s or the low 40s, he's got lots of work to do. and he's running out of time to do it. >> it's an amazing number. now, the second high-profile race in kansas kansas the political election capital of america this year. so there's a second high-profile, and that is sam brownback, republican governor. and we have a number in that race now. paul davis democratic challenger, barely ahead. ahead by a point there, 44-43, basically within the margin of error. what is your sense right now, dave, of the state of that race? >> you get the sense that first of all, the pat roberts/greg orman race has really sucked a lot of the oxygen out of the

davis/brownback race. a lot less focus on that. so there may be some republicans coming home to sam brownback. the other dynamic at work in kansas, steve, is -- and i wrote about this about a week ago -- in some strange way, roberts and brownback are sort of joined yet they're apart. and one of the struggles for democrats will be finding republicans who are willing to vote against roberts and brownback. you get the sense that republicans are going to pick one or the other to sort of punish in november. and so far they're punishing, if you will roberts. that means, again, some votes may be coming back to sam brownback. so we guess that one will be nip and tuck right until election day. >> that's interesting. so brownback potentially at least could be saved by a republican losing a senate seat out there. we want to move to jim in north carolina. the race there is kay hagan, democratic incumbent, and tom tillis, republican challenger. the new marist poll there, you see kay hagan ahead by four points. 44-40 in this new poll. and to put this in a little bit

of context, also in north carolina according to this poll president obama's approval rating, remember, this is a state that he carried in 2008 lost in 2012 and he -- that's actually kansas on the screen. but in north carolina he's at 40% approve. 50% disapprove. so the president is under water in north carolina. but the candidate from the president's party, kay hagan, is ahead by four points. jim, can you give us a sense of what you think is going on in that senate race? >> yeah steve. i think that those polls -- your poll is consistent with a lot of others that have been run. in fact, i think the real clear politics average is about 4%. and i think a lot of that is a reflection of how kay hagan and her allies have been able to dominate the airwaves in north carolina. i don't think any state has seen as much outside spending as north carolina. and a lot of those, the preponderance of that spending and those ads have been in favor of hagan. and she's been able to sort of set the ad agenda at least until recently. >> and so when you talk to republicans, you talk to the tillis people, when they look at

polls that have him a few points down, what do they say their path to victory is? >> well i think that they're trying to change the subject. his latest ads are about the rise of isis and blaming the president and senator hagan for not doing more to sort of stop the rise of isis. and i think that they're trying to get their people out to vote. i think both sides are doing that but they've got several groups working on their side including americans for prosperity and others that are trying to galvanize the grass roots. >> yeah. and you talk about the spending disparity and potentially benefiting democrats to this point. is there any indication that that is going to change that that's beginning to change and even out, or is that an advantage democrats can look forward to through election day? >> well democrats have a lot of money pledged through election day. i think the senate majority pac, harry reid's pac, is in for $14 million in the entire campaign. now, i understand that the republicans and republican allied groups have increased spending in the last week or so. but the coming week could be a

pivotal week in the race. there are two debates in this coming week. and the first one involves libertarian candidate who, according to your poll is polling 7% which could be decisive. >> okay. and now the third race here we have new numbers, then we'll go to kathy out in iowa. this is joni ernst, the republican, bruce braley the democrat, an open-seat race. we'll put the number up there. you see joni ernst, the republican, leading by two points in this new nbc news/marist poll. there have been a number of recent polls that have also shown ernst ahead. she clearly has taken a small, but she does have a lead in this race right now. kathy, what has happened out there to put joni ernst ahead? >> well i think that this has been one of the most competitive senate races in the country. and with your poll maybe it is the most competitive senate race in the country. and joni ernst has taken a slight lead in this race. and there are several points in

her farevor, some of which show up in your poll this morning. one is that barack obama's popularity is low in iowa. he is below 50%. secondly terry branstad republican governor in iowa is blowing the doors off right now. he is headed toward a very decisive victory if things continue as the trends have been. and also bruce braley and joni ernst are both still trying to introduce themselves to iowans. and joni ernst appears to have done a better job of that so far. she went through a very competitive primary, and iowans have gotten to know her. bruce braley despite being an eight-year congressman in iowa has -- is not as well known statewide as joni ernst. so those are some of the factors going in. we've got some things that democrats say will help pull them out in november. one is that they believe they're

going to have a superior ground game at getting out the vote. secondly, they believe that they are going to be able to let voters know that joni ernst has switched from the very conservative persona that she had during the primary to something that is looking more middle of the road as she is running toward november. however, joni ernst has something going on in your poll as well an enthusiasm gap. voters who are for joni ernst seem to be a lot more enthusiastic for her. you might say, well what difference does it make if everybody votes, right? except that the people who are most enthusiastic are not just going to vote. they're going to bring their friends and relatives and go and convince them to vote as well. so that enthusiasm gap is important. >> and the issue here i think a lot of people nationally when they look at the iowa senate race, they think of bruce braley and this video that emerged earlier this year at this fund-raiser. he's talking to a group of lawyers, raising money from them and basically saying of chuck grassley, the republican senator from iowa saying you the

lawyers don't want the republicans to get control of the senate because then you'd have a farmer from iowa without a law degree chuck grassley chairing the senate judiciary committee. that tape got a lot of attention certainly when it came out. is that a factor in this race? does that continue to haunt bruce braley and show up in his numbers? >> we have seen joni ernst leading bruce braley by a big margin in rural areas. so that video which was seen as not only disparaging to chuck grassley but also possibly disparaging to farmers, may be in fact, a factor going forward. and it was interesting in "the des moines register's" debate with kcci-tv earlier this month, the two candidates were asked who was the first person you would call for advice if you get elected, and both of them said chuck grassley. bruce braley is saying that chuck grassley would be the first person he'd call for advice if he got elected. i think maybe that was an acknowledgment that he made a mistake by you know maybe picking on grassley a little bit earlier in the campaign.

>> i'm sure chuck grassley enjoyed that moment. anyway kathie obradovich from "the des moines recommendinggister," appreciate you all joining me this morning. interesting new numbers especially out there in kansas. i'm sure i'll be talking to all of you in the homestretch. appreciate you joining us. in just 30 days a potential republican candidate faces his biggest hurdle yet. we will talk about it next. i have the worst cold with this runny nose. i better take something. dayquill cold and flu doesn't treat your runny nose. seriously? alka-seltzer plus cold and cough fights your worst cold symptoms plus your runny nose. oh, what a relief it is.

there comes a time in everyone's life when you want more. like a new meticulously engineered german sedan.

finely crafted. exactingly precise. desire for such things often outpaces one's means. until now. hey matt, new jetta? yeah. introducing lots of new. the new volkswagen jetta. isn't it time for german engineering? while many embattled republican governors are running to the middle in tight races taking place in blue states this year, governor scott walker of wisconsin is doing the opposite. he first rose to national prominence in 2011 when he stripped public employee unions of their bargaining rights. organized labor and their democratic allies railed against walker for that. in trying remove him from office, became a national priority of the left. walker survived the recall

attempt and now he's up for re-election for a full four-year term. and he's sticking to his same conservative playbook. nbc senior political reporter perry bacon writes quote, in a state that obama won in both 2008 and 2012 walker is running an unabashedly conservative re-election campaign. taking no steps to move to the left on policy and instead bragging up his role as a boogey man to democrats both here and nationally. he wants to institute drug tests, expand the state voucher program and refused to accept expanded medicaid funding under the affordable care act, otherwise known as obama heir. his approach is working in a late with a large number of republican and democratic partisans but few swing voters. for months polls have shown the race neck and neck. but a new poll out this week showed that walker has eked into a five-point lead. so will this boldly partisan and ideological approach work for governor walker? as it seems to be working so far? joining me to discuss is msnbc political correspondent casey

hunt who interviewed both scott walker and his challenger mary burke earlier this week. casey, thanks for joining us. we have a bunch of clips. we want to get to them here throughout this segment. but i just want to start with the bottom-line issue of your sense of where this race is right now because i think this story is very interesting to a lot of people. republicans look at this as sort of an inspirational story. democrats look at this as a baufl baffling story. it looks like scott walker has moved into a slight edge for re-election here with a very conservative message. how? >> with a very conservative message. and you know you sort of -- you outlined it well in that this is a state that's extremely divided. and in my interview with walker i talked to him about how the state's changed since he became governor. the state used to have a wider middle. like 20% or so of voters considered themselves unaffiliated, might swing back and forth. now that number is closer to 4%. and most people in the state have already made up their mind. so it is really a question of machinery organizing each side getting its people out to the polls.

and i will say i feel like there's a very large weight on mary burke's shoulders right now because the left democrats, really have a lot riding on attempting to beat scott walker. and if they could take walker out for all the reasons you mentioned because of this union bust because of all these conservative policies it would be considered a huge victory, and she'd probably rise to prominence. i will say that's a lot toware for somebody who's never been a political candidate before. and i think i picked up some of that in the interview i did with her. >> and again, we'll show a clip in a second. just following up on the walker point for a minute too, because i've been looking at this race i've been thinking a lot if people remember george allen. george allen, republican senator from virginia, and he was up for re-election in 2006. this was the trial run because he was going to run for president in 2008 and he was going to be the republican establishment choice and all that. he screwed up that whole macaca thing happened and that's it. it seems like there's a similar dynamic here for scott walker where a lot of people are talking about him for 2016.

he makes sense for a lot of reasons. not if he loses here. >> probably not. i mean, this is the kind of thing where, you know he becomes a conservative here. i mean i think there is a slight possibility that should he go down narrowly to mary burke, he would still be considered something of a martyr on the right, you know somebody who did stick to his principles stick to his guns didn't try to move to the left, didn't try to make any accommodation. but i think in the broad scheme of things i mean it would sink him down the list significantly. i will say that you know to that point, i was there when governor chris christie was in campaigning for walker. and i think that you know you heard from him this idea that republicans nationally want to hold up scott walker because they want to be able to show two other republican governors, hey, you can govern like a real conservative and still win. >> so i want to play one of the clips here. so you were out in wisconsin on monday. i want to play a clip on that and ask you about it on the other side. take a look. >> sure. >> mary burke partly for being a

wealthy millionaire who outsourced jobs. and you actually took a hit from "the wall street journal" for that. they said that's not how republicans should talk about free enterprise. >> in our case what we did was really criticized the hypocrisy. she was going after a couple of companies. in the end she was actually wrong about. her theory was that they got taxpayers' money and then they sent jobs overseas. >> those were democratic attacks against mitt romney. >> but our point was that she went after me on that and we said the hypocrisy of doing that when the very company that she personally was a part of and still profits from today did exactly that. >> so that's interesting, and the background to this, when we talk about the conservative message that walker has, he is trying to strike a sort of populist economic theme running against burke who has this background, the trek bicycle company and so much of the production being done overseas. and he's trying to make that an issue. as you say there, in a way that democrats tried to make outsourcing an issue with romney in 2012. is he gaining any sort of

crossover traction with blue-collar democratic voters by doing that? >> i mean, i think that to a certain extent this was, again, playing up to his base because as he pointed out, you know, he was trying to turn those attacks around on her. i just thought what was most interesting about this is that i think that it serves to highlight the danger that he feels that he's in for him to sort of take this line of attack against her because he did get sort of smacked back by "the wall street journal" for doing that. they said hey, this is not how republicans talk about free enterprise. so even if you know walker is on the one hand pursuing policies that, you know maybe republicans or "the wall street journal" editorial page would agree with you know to win this campaign he has to talk like, as you say, a populist. >> there's also this issue of the investigation that's been going on sort of around governor walker having to do with financing a potential coordination with other groups that, you know his campaign his people are not supposed to be coordinating with that recall back in 2012. there was a court that had shut

that thing down a while ago. now it's apparently back on. is that an issue in this race and how serious is his exposure there? >> mary burke has sort of -- you know, when i talked to her about it, she basically stepped out of the way a little bit. she said hey this is for the courts and the voters to decide. so it's not something that the candidate herself is going after. democrats are obviously making a significant issue of it. it's one of these things that in some ways it's similar to the bridge scandal in new jersey in that it sort of has bubbled along very slowly and walker has not been directly implicated. they say he's not actually being investigated. he did face a little bit of a backslide last week when a panel of judges said that the state could, in fact continue their investigation. a federal judge had initially said that the state needed to shut that down. so it's one of these things that's kind of hanging over scott walker. you know and that sort of threatens to derail him at any moment. but that also, you know, i think brings -- there's a lot of frustration right now as we can

see with these midterms with the process of elections and politics and how, you know, everybody seems to sort of be doing it wrong. and there's a lot of frustration on the part of voters with that kind of use of the process. and that's really what this case is all about. it's whether, you know maybe walker didn't actually do anything illegal, but he stepped right up to the line of what the laws are intended to do in trying to keep money out of politics. you're only supposed to be able to raise $10,000 from one person for a governor's race. and he was using these outside groups, you know playing an influential role in trying to funnel larger sums of money from big donors. so far, no illegalities, but, you know voters may decide hey, that doesn't smell right. >> and just in terms of mary burke, the democrat as we say, the poll putting her five points behind. i know you asked her also this week, you asked her about president obama. she didn't seem too interested in getting into that at all. again, this is one of those states, it's a blue state, but the president's numbers are down as elsewhere. what can mary burke do to make up this gap and win this race? >> well i mean the irony to a

certain extent there is that they are actually bringing in the obamas. despite the fact that she, you know put that distance between them in our interview. she's sort of trying to walk this fine line on the one handing the candidate who is trying to heal the divisiveness that sort of plagued wisconsin politics over the last couple of years. you know there are a certain segment of voters looking for somebody who's going to say hey, we're going to stop fighting so nastily and aggressively. that's sort of the message that she brings. on the other hand and it's -- there is no way around the reality that this is a base election. this is about moving the core motivated voters to the polls. and for that you know they still need the obamas. this is one of the few places president obama is planning to go this fall in the midterms. michelle obama was there. this past week for mary burke. so i mean i was actually very struck by her answer. you know i asked her, you know who would you model your leadership still after? and she said "not obama, but maybe abraham lincoln or george washington." >> you can't argue with either

of those models, i guess. >> i guess not. >> interesting the context of that question though. msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt. that was good stuff you had from wisconsin. >> thanks for having me steve. coming up we're going to look at another close senate race, one that's been under the radar until now but that involves some infighting between some two very big-name democrats. we're going to explain that to you right after this. your customers, our financing. your aspirations, our analytics. your goals, our technology. introducing synchrony financial, bringing new meaning to the word partnership. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. enagage with us.

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hospital officials have told them that he has been intubated. meanwhile, the nbc news cameraman who was diagnosed with ebola while working in west africa is expected to arrive at a nebraska hospital tomorrow. he'll be treated by the same team that cared for dr. rick sacra, massachusetts doctor and missionary who contracted ebola while in africa. overnight, we learned that dr. sacra is back in the hospital with what appears to be a respiratory infection. he's in stable condition. doctors do not think it's a recurrence of ebola. we'll be right back with more from the world of politics. monday morning." sundays are the warrior's day to unplug and recharge. what if this feeling could last all week? with centurylink as your trusted partner, it can. our visionary cloud infrastructure and global broadband network free you to focus on what matters. with custom communications solutions and dedicated support, your business can shine all week long.

here's a battleground state you probably haven't heard anything about this year but where there is some real and some increasing drama just behind the stage. south dakota. that's where democratic senator tim johnson is retiring. because south dakota is such a strongly red state, the press and the political world has just assumed all year that former republican governor mike rounds will win the seat and that

republicans will therefore pick up a democratic seat in south dakota. but here's the latest poll from ppp. it shows that rounds is ahead but that he's only getting 35% of the vote. another recent polls have shown him doing a little better but in all of them he is running well under 50%. rounds would be in real trouble, in fact, if this was a two-man race instead of a three-way race. think of what's happened in kansas where republican senator pat roberts is now suddenly in grave danger of losing his seat because the democrat dropped out, and that left roberts stuck in a one-on-one campaign with independent greg orman. and as we just saw in that new poll we showed you, roberts is now running ten points behind orman in that race. well, if something like that happened in south dakota if either the democrat rick weiland, or the independence, larry pressler former republican u.s. senator running as an independent this year if either of them dropped out of that race it would be very bad news for rounds. but even if that doesn't happen

and it still doesn't look like it's going to happen even if that doesn't happen it doesn't look like the republicans have put this race away because look at that poll again. look at that poll again. the democrat is only seven points behind rounds. so is there a chance here for democrats to put up some real money and to catch the republicans sleeping? it's probably a stretch, but maybe there is. here's where the drama comes in. the hill newspaper reported this week that there are some very bitter feelings between senate majority leader harry reid and former senate majority leader tom daschle, harry reid's predecessors, and tom daschle is from south dakota and the tension is over this race. rick weiland is close to daschle and daschle has been supporting him aggressively, but reid wanted a different democrat former congresswoman stephanie sandlan, he wanted her to run instead of weiland. with weiland running now, reid publicly said this quote, we

are going to lose in south dakota, more than likely. and daschle has been pressing reid to reconsider that and to help direct real national money into this race but so far weiland is pretty much on his own out in south dakota. so here we are, the election is a month away. democrats are in serious danger of losing the senate. if they could ever find a way to win in south dakota it would probably change everything. this is a race that republicans have been pencilled in to win all year. so will democrats make a late play in south dakota? will harry reid reconsider and make this race one of his priorities? and if he doesn't, does that leave democrats with any chance at a race that could have been a chance for them? we were hoping to talk we were planning to talk with rick weiland here this morning and ask him all about this. unfortunately, technical difficulties mean we'll have to look into doing it another weekend. i am looking forward to that. i am also looking forward to finding out what we should know for our week ahead. our answers with the panel, back

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all right, we're getting close to the end of the show. that means it's time to find out what our guests think we should know for the week ahead. we'll start with sglu this is a week that a lot of the midterm races will consolidate and we'll see trends going in one or the other direction. i spent a week in wisconsin and thought your segment with kacie was great. i would add that scott walker is consolidating his base and mary

burke still needs to do that. she has a very technocratic pitch, i want to bring wisconsin together, she's staying away from hot button issues but i think that in order to heal wisconsin, you've got to get elected first. so i look for her to sharpen her message on issues of voting rights and women's rights and economic rights in the weeks to come. >> take a page from the walker book, know who your base is and get them out. >> there are about 4% undecided. it's really going to lie with turning out milwaukee and madison. >> the supreme court's term officially begins this week and this could be a block pufter term because they might take up same-sex marriage they might take up abortion they might take up a case that was once seen as a long shot about the legality of aca subsidies. what they will take up is important cases about redistricting, online threatening statements whether they're protected by the first amendment and religious liberty for inmates.

>> that is a full docket it sounds like. >> i think what you'll see this week from republicans is a continuation of president obama's comments at the end of this last week where he said that his policies are going to be on the ballot this fall. republicans are going to start to use that rhetoric. they're going -- you're going to see that in campaign ads over and over. i think that the candidates they're running against that have voted with obama consistently are going to rue the day those words came out of his mouth. >> and i was still struck we had those polls that the kansas numbers and what dave from kansas was telling us about how democrats may succeed in getting pat roberts out but it may actually be helping sam brownback in the governor's race, that's an interesting trend to be watching there. thank you to katie, and others. thank you for joining us. we'll be back next weekend, saturday, sunday at 8:00 eastern time. coming up melissa harris-perry with guest host dorian warren. at progressive.com. is that where they show the other guys' rates, too? mm-hmm.

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plus corporations that take the money and run. and, the secret service mission to secure and seclude. but first, the latest on the deadly ebola disease here at home. good morning i'm dorian warren in for melissa harris-perry. we have a