four tuesdays from now. let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews in washington. i promised you a big inside look at the 2014 election tonight. and the fight tonight, the fight, the fighters, the nastiest contest to come. before we're done this evening, you'll know where the excitement lies. who has the momentum and what the stakes are if the democrats lose this big one. let's take a look. >> i may wander and i may rome, but i'll never be far from home. you're in my heart, you're arkansas, you run deep in me. vote your heart.

>> senator, you seem to think that the president is on the bat lot this year. he's not. this race is between me and you and the people of kentucky and we intend to hold you accountable for your years of failed leadership. >> my home is dodge city and i'm damn proud of it. >> well, i suspect, senator, i've been to dodge city more this year than you have. [ cheers and applause ] >> senator ernst would have voted to shut down the federal government with ted cruz. she's called president obama a dictator and thinks impeachment should be on the table. >> congressman, you threatened to sue a neighbor over chickens that came on to your property. you're talking about bipartisanship, how do we expect as iowans to believe that you will walk across the aisle when you can't walk across your yard? >> there's only way, to go in a different direction, that's to change the senate and make me the leader of a new majority to take america in a different direction.

>> if we keep stepping up and bringing others along, i know we can keep making that change we believe in. i know we can elect mary burke has governor of wisconsin, thank you all so much. god bless. >> there she is, looking good. joining me now, washington post opinion writer jonathan capehart. and the great proffer larry sabato, from the university's center for politics. we're going to go right now, to how the republicans could win the u.s. senate. for republicans to take over the senate, their clearest path to victory flows this way. first, they take south dakota, montana, and west virginia. then they work their way through alaska, followed by a march into the deep south to try to capture arkansas and louisiana. ask then up to iowa. let's take a look at the face us of the contenders who populate this path to victory if the republicans get it. and discuss a counter attack.

south dakota, a three-way race, rick whelan, and the senator for many years, along with mike rounds. an average shows rounds with a double-digit lead. montana, democrat amanda curtis versus steve danes, the polling average has danes with a double-digit lead as well. west virginia, republican cap toe maintains a healthy lead. so let's say republicans win these three. now it starts to get harder for them. the following races are all close. alaska, mark begins versus dan silva. sullivan is up by a hair. to the deep south, mark pryor and tom cotton are neck and neck right now. on to louisiana where the state's open primary format has

the incumbent fending off bill b costley and rob mannis. iowa, bruce braley is in the fight of his life against the hog castrator, joni ernst. there we have it. let me go to larry sabato who i watch all the time on this. three of them look good for the republicans. that's south dakota, montana, west virginia. then it gets more difficult. alaska, arkansas, louisiana, and then to win the thing, assuming what's happening -- will hurt them the republicans in kansas, they got to win iowa. how does that look to you? >> i think that's about right. i would say iowa is the most probable sixth or seventh seat if they have to win seven because they lose kansas, or colorado. you might want to throw colorado in there. those are probably the two most critical seats, assuming they can really knock off the democratic incumbents in the south. you didn't mention kay hagan. >> i don't think she's going to lose. that's why. >> she's ahead.

>> i want to go right now to that one, but look at the first. this is the path to victory. this is sherman's march to the sea, if you will. if they make it to the sea. >> right. the key thing here, the one thing no one's talking about, but should pay attention to, the african american vote. that is the vote that could be the thing that keeps the senate in democratic hands. and i bring that up in three races. arkansas, which is on your list, louisiana, which is on your list. you think kay hagan is going to win north carolina, and it looks good for her right now, but if the polls close up and kay hagan is hanging on, it's the african american vote there that could push her over. now, in louisiana we've seen races where senator landrieu has eeked out a win and it's because african americans -- >> we're looking at numbers that don't show a lot of intensity on the liberal side of things. >> exactly. i know the history says that

african american voters and actual the obama coalition doesn't come out and vote in midterm elections, but what i say to people, there are two things you have to look at it. the one, the virginia gubernatorial race, 2013, terry mcauliffe against ken cuccinelli. people didn't think mcauliffe was going to win. because the african american was there. the second thing to look at, african american voters are pretty angry, they're angry about voting rights, they're angry about ferguson -- >> they're a little angry at the president. >> and the secret service threats against the president. >> that too. >> they're angry with the president because things haven't happened, but they're more angry about the things that are happening to them by way of republican obstruction, the supreme court doing what it did on voting rights. and also a feeling that they need to have the president's back. >> who's going to get at them and make the change for the

polling right now, you and the first lady, you're both in. she's been great. we saw a bit of her in wisconsin. but i don't hear the president out there campaigning, angry conservative whites don't want to see him. >> that we know. but the president's been campaigning, doing fund raisers. he's not doing them in the states, but he's raising tons of money for the dccc and getting the message out. >> as excited as you are, i would have no doubt about the turnouts. anyway, republicans could use this to add to their majority if they have a good day four weeks from tonight. in kansas, greg orman, he'll organize with whatever wins. tom tillis, beats kay hagan. i don't think he's going to do. nor republican corey gardner if he beats udall, same in new hampshire. scott brown wins against the incumbent who happens to live in

new hampshire. what do you think the chances are of a real sweep, where the republicans don't just take the senate, they really it up to the mid 50s? >> very minimal. you can cut michigan right out of there, chris. [ all speak at once ] >> absolutely. look, it's not only over it's been over for months and months. we've never had that race out in the democratic column. and some of the others are real stretches that you just mentioned. look, this is not a slam dunk for the republicans. a year ago they thought they were going to run up 52, 53, 54 seats, and i heard numbers larger than that. hasn't turned out that way. it's a six-year itch election, but the itch is really not very deep. >> isn't their opportunity to broad sweep elections they could win, they could win south dakota, montana, west virginia, arkansas, louisiana, and iowa.

but they could also pick up a vote because orman from kansas says i'll go with whatever wins. that's another vote to add to them. and i do think the race in north carolina is tricky because you're in virginia. for some weird reason, north carolina -- and i went to grad school and i'm going there this weekend -- they move to the right. i don't know why and i don't think that can be good for kay hagan. >> well, look, it's possible that tillis could win. there are 28 days to go, you never know what's going to happen. she has been the great survivor of the election. >> i agree. >> i tend to think she's going to hang on. what's much more important is kansas. that is the real fly in the ointment for the republicans. and a year ago, who could have imagined that kansas might stand in the way of republicans gaining the senate. for orman, if he wins and he's ahead right now in the polling averages, if he wins, the question is going to be, is she going to join the republican caucus after he's had the stuffing beat out of him and a

couple million dollars of television ads that they're going to fund, or is he going to think about his re-election in 2020? he'd have a better chance as a republican candidate. >> that's what i think. what do you think the headline's going to be in the "the washington post", your paper, wednesday morning after the election? democrats hold on, keep the senate, or republicans pick up the senate in a closer vote than expected? >> i'm going to make you mad and say it could be either one. right now to this point -- >> in the tradition, of david broder, he never predicted either. >> right now, i would say democrats hang on to the senate by a finger nail. >> black vote key. >> absolutely. black vote key. >> larry, can you say what you think the headline will be wednesday morning after the election? will the democrats hold on and hold the senate?

>> yes, i can predict the headline precisely, chris. the headline is, senate up in air. louisiana's going to have a run-off. georgia could easily have a run-off in january, not december like louisiana. it's going to take a week at least to figure out who's won alaska and there's bound to be one or two other squeakers. we're not going to know who is controlling the senate for a while after november 4th. >> there's a prediction. i think landrieu will have a hard time in the run-off. i think that's going to be tough for her to hold. anyway, thank you. alaska comes in late and georgia sometimes in january. it's incredible. thank you, jonathan capehart, larry sabato, as brilliant as ever. stay with us now, the entire hour for our special report on the upcoming november elections. we'll look at the races that will decide control. the hottest races coming up right now.

get the "zeitgeist" feeling and get predictions from a round table on which way this wind is headed. we'll also have the most memorable campaign ads of the year. and my favorite part of any election night, the concession speeches because they're the one real part of american politics. this is a special edition of "hardball," four weeks before the midterm elections.

four weeks from now, on election night itself we'll be watching the winners of course, but the concession speeches from the losing speeches are often the most dramatic moments in politics. a 1952 concession to eisenhower is among the most well respected speeches ever. it has grace, patriotism, and humor. >> someone asked me as i came in down on the street how i felt. and i was reminded of a story that a fellow townsman of ours

used to tell, abraham lincoln. they asked him how he felt once after an unsuccessful election -- >> we want -- >> he said, he said he felt like a little boy who had stubbed his toe in the dark. and it -- that he was too told to cry, but it hurt too much to laugh. >> that was one of the best. and in 1978, ed brook lost to sagas. brook never mentioned sagas financial troubles during the campaign. and in his concession speech, he praised him for that. >> i want to congratulate paul saunders for the quality of his campaign. i want to congratulate him for the honorable manner in which he has conducted this campaign.

when we were down in the valley, i did not cry. i cried out. and you answered that cry, and you have shown your faith and your confidence. >> in the valley, down in the valley, i did not cry. that's one of the best ones. and we'll see if any of the losing candidates four weeks from now can match that for being honest, and a little bit of eloquence won't hurt. we'll be right back.

again, i will continue to support the rff and do that as your next united states senator. >> if i could respond, i'm not sure that's what senator ernst told the koch brothers when she went to their secret meetings. >> congressman braley, you're not running against these other people. you're running against me. i am a mother, i am a soldier, and i am an independent leader. >> president obama's name is not on the ballot.

and i'm not going to owe president obama anything on election day. you're going to owe the koch brothers everything. >> pretty tough. welcome back to "hardball." that was democrat bruce braley and republican joni ernst, who calls herself the pig castrator. she's doing well. iowa has turned out to be crucial this cycle. i think it will decide the election. along with states like new hampshire, and north carolina. where the "hardball" team will be this weekend to interview senator kay hagan. iowa is a must-win for democrats. most people believe that. and republicans are poised to win in arkansas where msnbc casey is, following former president bill clinton's travel stumping for embattled democrat senator mark pryor. i thought bill was coming home to touch base for hillary clinton coming back in 2016. he was saying, i've roamed, i've

wandered, but i'm home. i get the sense it's about more than just this election. your thoughts? >> i think that's certainly part of it. with the clintons, it's always about the future. but in this case, it was a little bit about the past. these candidates are people who have been in his political life for decades. mike ross was his driver, now running for governor. mark pryor, trying to hold on to his senate seat. his father was closes to bill clinton for a long time. he brings something to the race that barack obama can't. bill clinton appeals to the african american voters you were talking about earlier on the show. but also to the rural white voters, the ones that are not happy with president obama this time around. and that was a message that bill clinton brought to these crowds here. he rallied at college campuses, he's looking for young votes.

but what he said, republicans are trying to make this about president obama. president has really only two years left. the senator you choose is going to be in there for six and that you should look past that sort of lens. he acknowledged the fraught history of race that's present here in arkansas. he talked about what it was like to be here during the civil rights era and how the state has changed for the better since then. he made this pitch to students, to look forward to the future, try not to let republicans define it a certain way. if you think about congressman to the cotton, he's one of the more conservative members in the house. he's a different kind of republican than arkansas has even -- even in some of the rest of the arkansas delegation, he's campaigning with huckabee on thursday. cotton and huckabee are two very different kinds of republicans. >> casey, we got to go. we'll be following you on the campaign. joining me now for a deeper dive into some of the hottest senate

races this coming month, democratic strategist david axelrod and republican strategist. let me ask you about iowa. this thing about castration got a lot of attention. people accused her of being a lightweight. she's no lightweight. >> first of all, being called a lightweight going into a debate is a great advantage because the bar is low and she's exceeded the bar and she's been helped by those encounters. i think iowa is, i agree with you, i think iowa will be the pivotal state in this whole constellation and it's very, very close. she's got momentum. she's got charisma. but democrats have great organization there. one of the things that's giving democrats some confidence there is the early vote, the applications for absentee ballots, or early vote ballots are coming in in the same proportion they did in 2012 on 2

partisan basis. their analysis suggests they'll go into election day with a three or four-point lead. so she'll have to be more than that ahead in order to win on election day. so it's really organization versus momentum and charisma, and we'll see. >> what i keep reading, there's a tremendous number of numbers about the feeling of the country. the liberals are down. they don't want to get out there and vote. the democrat moderate, progressives, they don't have it. the right, they're angry, they're going to show up. that's the way it looks now. in iowa, i think it's going to help her. >> this isn't a shot at david's client, but i do think a lot of that is the president of the united states. i don't think the liberals are enthused. i don't think they're excited about the direction, about some of the decisions that he's made. there's another interesting thing going on that i haven't heard many people talk about. in a lot of close races -- >> let's stick with this in

iowa. the latest poll has braley the democrat, and ernst tied at 46 for ernst and 44 for braley. but for republicans ahead now, given intensity and voter turn-out, they'll win. >> i think she will win. i also think in some sense because she was the underdog, she's seen as the challenger, versus him being the incumbent. that's why democrats have a lot of trouble coming up in arkansas, louisiana, north carolina. because even though those races might be close, the democrat is way below 50 in those seats. >> i look at this analytically. i know you don't want to end up like panetta and think the republicans are going to win, should be a loyalist. but i'm looking at one state that could throw everything out and that's new hampshire. if scott brown can waltz across the border and show up in that state and actually win a senate seat after losing one in a

bordering state, it shows the wind was at this guy's back like you can't believe. the latest cbs poll from new hampshire shows jeanne shaheen with a seven-point lead, but it's been bouncing all over the place. i'm not sure of that because in other polls he's been very close. can he win? >> what i believe is that shaheen's going to win. if brown wins that race, i don't think it's going to be 50 or 51 republican majority. it will be more than that, because it will mean there's been a wave that will tip a number of the other races as well. i want to return to this question of iowa. the problem that democrats have had traditionally in midterm elections not just this one, is voter dropout. democrats tend to vote in presidential elections, not in midterm elections. if democrats in any of these states and iowa is one of them, can replicate the kind of proportionality that they get in a presidential race, they have a much better chance to win. >> how do they do that?

>> they do it by very precisely organizing and that's what they're trying to do in iowa. it's really, really -- this early mail ballot thing is very important because a lot of the people who are asking for applications are people who don't generally participate in these elections, and they tend to be democrats, not republicans. so these kinds of things can even up the race. but look, there's no doubt the republicans start with an advantage in the race, and it's not just because of the president, and it's not just because it's the sixth year. but so many of the september races fall in red states, this year, seven of them. so they start with an uneven playing field in their favor. the chairman of the party said on television the other day, it would be a big, big defeat for the republicans if they didn't take the senate this year. >> two important things, can you only organize if there's excitement that goes with that organization. you can't just also motivate. once they're excited, you can get them there. if there's not the excitement, you can't.

the second reason new hampshire is so important, dollars have been sent there, dollars that can't be spent other places. the fact that that race has become challenging for the democrats, it's helping republicans everywhere else. >> any republicans positive about anything -- >> anything positive? >> what do the republicans want? >> one is more freedom, two is less regulations, three is less taxes, pick your own doctor. there's a lot of things. i think there's a fear among republicans that there isn't real leadership in what is probably in some ways world war iii right now that we are fighting. >> you're not overstating it, are you? >> it's a different type of war. >> world war iii was us kids hiding under a school test because we were going to have a nuclear war. that's world war iii. >> we're in a different type of war because of how it's fought.

>> i don't agree. >> i don't think people feel as safe as before -- >> we can spend hours and never discuss isis. >> i see polling data every day and it's moving up in all the polls and senate races. david axelrod, thank you for joining us. good luck with the university of chicago effort of yours. >> i appreciate it. >> it's a great cause, to teach. always to teach. david and john, thank you. on monday, don't miss my interview with senator kay hagan. we're go to north carolina to see her this weekend. i think she's going to win against tom tillis because she's got his problems as speaker of the house. he's playing defense too. we'll be there to talk to her and take a report on what's going on. bring it all to you on monday. up next, the best campaign ads of the season. this is the fun part of the show. this is "hardball," our special tonight, four weeks before the midterm elections. nineteen year,

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back to "hardball." with just four weeks to go before the november elections, let's look at some of the most memorable ads of the 2014 election year so far. the first from tom cotton of arkansas, when mark pryor said that cotton's military service gave the man a sense of entitlement. cotton enlisted his old drill sergeant from the service and responded with this. >> senator pryor says my military service gives me a sense of entitlement. i brought in an expert. >> i met sergeant norton at basic training. >> cotton, at ease. >> he taught me how to be a soldier, accountability, and putting the unit before yourself. i'm tom cotton, i approve this message. >> you're on thin ice. >> the next, alison lundergan grimes of kentucky, running against mitch mcconnell.

she made this ad, to put some distance between herself and president obama. >> i'm not barack obama. i disagree with him on guns, cole, and the epa. and mitch, that's not how you hold a gun. i'm alison lundergan grimes and the approve this message. >> mark begich took to riding a snowmobile. >> i'm mark begich, i fought for five years to get the permit to drill under this ice, and we won. i approve this message because sooner or later, washington will figure out that i don't take "no" for an answer. >> greg orman, the independent candidate in running as a political outsider. he blames both parties for the dysfunction in d.c. here he is. >> if you listen to pat roberts and his washington buddies, they'll tell you president obama and harry reid are the reason washington is such a mess. and you know what, they're half right.

but the other half of the mess, mitch mcconnell and pat roberts. they're both more interested in political gains than problem solving. >> and then to michigan, gary peters attack on women's issues and she came out with this most basic of rebuttals. >> congressman gary peters and his buddies want you to believe i'm waging a war on women. really? think about that for a moment. ♪ >> i'm terry lynn land and i approved this message, because as a woman, i might know a little bit more about women than gary peters. >> not exactly actors, are they? and last but not least, the most recognizable ad of the 2014 season. joni ernst big castration ad in iowa. >> i'm joni ernst, i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm.

so when i get to washington, i'll know how to cut pork. >> wow, up next, what's the mood of the country going into the election? it's only four weeks now. are we looking at a wave election, a big vote against president obama or not? that's ahead, you're watching "hardball," a special addition of the program, a place for politics.

welcome back to this special edition of "hardball," four weeks before the election. we vote in this country because it's right thing to do and because we want to send a message with our vote. either yes or no about the way things are going. what will the message be in november this year? what are the midterm elections really about? are they rebuke to president obama? what's the mood of the country right now? we have some geniuses with us right now. let's bring in the round table. ken vogel, reporter with politico which steals reporters from "the washington post." and steve mcmahon is a democratic strategist, a real

one. let me go to this. what's the one word to define the mood of the country going into this election? >> i would go with sour. 76% of the country think we're on the wrong track. pretty similar to when we saw republicans take back the house. >> sour? >> i think anxious and frustrated. frustrated that things aren't moving forward. frustrated they're not hearing a lot of plans for where to go. and maybe -- >> neither party is saying what 8nzrjr'k the summer was a tough one for obama. we're in syria. ruffled feathers and people are nervous. >> disgusted. they're disgusted with their leaders in washington. if they could vote them all out, they would. >> that never happens, though. it's always in one direction. >> when you look at the numbers this year, it's as bad as it's ever been. >> not before you were born. right now the mood of the country doesn't look swell for

democrats. 2/3 say the country is on the wrong track. less than a quarter say we're on the right track. both of those are worst than 2010. also republicans are winning the intensity battle, which is everything in a midterm. look at this. if you ask registered voters wpñ which party should control the congress, they say democrats. 46-42. not bad. but if you ask high intensity voters, the ones who are gung ho to vote, you get the opposite. they want a republican-controlled congress, 51-48. that's a serious matter there for the democrats. and finally, the base, 38% of democrats say they're voting this november in support of the president. down from 45% in 2010 in line with the support george w. bush, and he didn't get in support from 2006 from his republican parties when they lost the

houses. you're a democratic consultant. you were on their side. i'm often on the side of democrats, i admit. but here's the question, how are they going to win the voters and get people to get roused up. capehart gave a rousing speech a few minutes ago, but that's the first i've heard. mrs. obama is out there. but how do you -- >> i think when the economy improves and it is improving, but everybody's not feeling it. when it does improve, who is the american economy going to work for? the wealthy and the special interests and that's still an area that democrats win overwhelmingly. >> why don't they brag about the economy getting better? >> because a lot of people don't feel it's getting better. >> why don't they brag about the people that are feeling better? the unemployment is under 6%. a quarter million new jobs in one month, ten million new jobs since the crash. don't you sell your strengths? politics? >> you do.

those are the strengths, and everybody nods their heads and saying, why am i not feeling? >> the money in their pockets and paychecks hasn't gone up, so they're not feeling it. >> republicans would be bragging right now. so how is this different? >> i think you've heard some of the bragging from obama, but i think he's got to temper it with how people are actually feeling. >> he has to figure it out. we lived through the 1930s, it was horrible for a decade. and roosevelt kept saying, we're getting somewhere. i watched those guys spiking the ball last night. democrats don't know how to spike the ball. that's their problem. they put the ball down and walk over to the sidelines. no, throw that thing, do something! >> the difference between this and 2010, both sides to an extent did have a unifying message. the republicans were running against obamacare.

democrats were talking about things were turning around. now it's fractured. >> what do you make of these guys like leon panetta, not just him, but begich and hagan, they're walking away from him. >> every man for himself. >> if we don't all hang together, we'll hang separately. that's a line from the revolution. now they're hanging separately. >> if you're mary landrieu in louisiana, you want to hang separately from this president. >> how do you get the black vote if you run away from the president? >> african americans will show up. michelle obama is out there talking specifically to them. >> president obama has gone under cover in the mid terms, but he resurfaced last thursday. here's the president making his best case. >> don't buy this notion that somehow this is an anti-business agenda. this is a pro-business agenda. this is a pro-economic growth agenda. i'm not on the ballot this fall.

michelle's pretty happy about that. [ laughter ] but make no mistake, these policies are on the ballot. every single one of them. >> republicans were quick to jump on that pro-business remark, prompting some democrats to run damage control. here's axelrod on "meet the press" this sunday. >> if you read the speech, the context of the line was, the things he's pushing forward, minimum wage, pay equity, infrastructure, he said these are on the ballot. but the way -- it was obvious when you saw the speech that that was not the way -- >> you're an ad man -- >> wait. it was a mistake. >> what was the mistake there? >> what was the mistake? >> yeah. >> i think giving republicans a cliff to hang on democrats' necks. mark warner is sitting in virginia and republicans are saying he voted with obama 97% of the time.

and now there's a clip that puts them together. >> i'm not sure that changes anyone's mind. it's essentially saying -- [ all speak at once ] >> they're already pretty enthusiastic. it's not going to change a democrat's mind. >> let's talk turkey, let's get rough. panetta is trashing the president on the decisions he'd made. shouldn't there be a period of loyalty? >> you won't write a back and you won't become a lobbyist for two years after you leave. >> how about while the guy is still in office? >> well, yeah. it's unfortunate for democrats because for the first time, foreign policy is something voters care about. >> why is she doing this? >> partly because he's not going to work in politics anymore. he wants to sell books. >> the kennedy administration didn't write books. >> loyalty is still a good

thing. you only get appointed by one president to one job. anyway -- >> there's a suggestion he's running interference for hillary clinton. >> how's that? >> legacy. he's out there singing -- >> i think that's too cute. [ all speak at once ] >> i think there may be some truth to that. >> he thinks he can circle back and get -- anyway, thank you, the round table is coming back. we'll get to the stakes coming up now. enough of the horse race, we're going to the stakes. what's this fight about? we'll be right back. it's about the subpoena power, that's what it's about. doesn't cover floods? [ heart rate increases ] man: a few inches of water caused all this? [ heart rate increases ] woman #2: but i don't even live near the water. what you don't know about flood insurance may shock you -- including the fact that a preferred risk policy starts as low as $129 a year. for an agent, call the number

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who's going to get control of the senate? we don't know. looks like republicans are able to do it. we if they can pull it off. but heading into the 2016 election, key governors' racing will be critical. here's a tease, look at where things stand right now in the "hardball" scoreboard. home state of pennsylvania, tom wolf looks strong against republican governor tom corbett in a new quinnipiac poll. first time any governor has ever lost in pennsylvania. they don't get defeated. in michigan, a new poll has rick snyder eight points over mark schauer. wisconsin, look at this one, the recent poll has scott walker holding a thin, slim vote over mary burke.

walker 50, burke, 45. first lady michelle obama is in wisconsin right now, campaigning for mary burke. tomorrow, we'll be highlighting some of the hottest governors' races right now on "hardball." we'll be back after this.

we're back. just a few minutes left. it seems to me that the big thing you get if you're the republicans and take over the senate, you get the subpoena power. that's what went after reagan, it's what caused bill clinton to be impeached. if you get that power, you have power.

>> and you control it not just in the ability to give obama a hard time, you really have to look at clinton. i think -- that's the thing about it. >> you go after benghazi for the hundredth time. >> yeah, you can. i think the big question for republicans will be are they going to want to relitigate obama's continuum. or will they want to think about 2016. >> it's like the clown show over there. but they don't really get covered. the senate gets covered. >> mccain will get covered. >> mccain will get covered. if they get benghazi, it will be big news. >> i don't want to be cynical, but what's the difference? >> functionally, the same. mcconnell will have some symbolic votes. >> obama says there will be a

different debate, at least. >> there will. the house will pass things and then the republican senate will pass things. he'll negotiate over a signature. he might have some antibiotic to move some things. >> that's one of the theories, you know, if the republicans control both houses, maybe they'll be able tote good many some stuff done. >> i want to have some fun with you. which senator who lives -- of the democrats, will the president miss socially? miss hanging around with? miss spending time with, playing cards with. you know what point i'm making, don't you? he doesn't hang out with any of them. who is he going to miss socially? >> i don't know. i take your point. but i do think republicans do ér

have to be careful in going too aggressively if they take the senate after obama using subpoena power. >> you can predict. you can predict. can you predict? >> probably not. >> think it's right on the nail right now. i think if they had to vote right now, they'd get it with one vote. i do think the democrats, the good ones, the smart campaigners are going to earn their seats in the next four weeks. >> that's true of all of these people. in these tough states, these are democrats who have run there and won there before. they have the ability to do it. i think the republicans have been really set back by pat roberts who is in kansas. >> you've got to win seven now. >> yes, and that's a lot harder than six. >> and by the way, this guy in kansas, i don't know who i'm going to join with, that's a an eye on my health. ugh! we won! that's why i take metabiotic, a daily probiotic. with 70% of your immune system in your gut,

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a broader mix of energies, world needs which is why we are supplying natural gas, to generate cleaner electricity, that has around 50% fewer co2 emissions than coal. and why with our partner in brazil, we are producing a biofuel made from renewable sugarcane to fuel cars. let's broaden the world's energy mix, let's go.

let me finish tonight with a publication in paperback today of tipper mcgibber. speaker of the house tip o'kneel and the country's top conservative, president ronald reagan. right with the two forces in

american politics meet head on. where the left meets the right and either something good happens or nothing happens. we cut the rates and, yes, at the cold war, it all worked although we rarely stopped fieging. but when we did, we found a way that got good things done. for the country. it was okay. rousing, passionate and often noisy politics at its best. i wish boehner wow read this book. i wish the president would read it because it's a handbook. an operator's manual making this government work. something it hasn't been doing. it's the reason why voters, except for the haters out there, who just love government shutdowns and all of this failure to get something done aren't all that excited about the elections coming up. why vote if it doesn't get anything done. the fact is, in my book, it

tells this story. it can. i was right there when it did. nd as right there when it did. good things got done. that's "hardball" for now. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. >> tonight on "all in requests. >> are we secure? are we protected? >> isis propaganda as campaign propaganda. meet the candidate using video of an american being beheaded as an attack ad. police are now planning for riots in case officer darren wilson does not get indicted by a grand jury in the death of michael brown. plus, "all in" travels to the land of big tobacco and big coal. and jennifer lawrence and her hacked photos. it's not a scandal. it's a sex crime. "all in" startings right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. the f.b.i. is seeking the public's help tonight in