there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. the woman in quarantine speaks out. all right, good morning. thanks for getting up with us this morning. only nine days before the mid-term election and plenty on that including the release of six new polls from key battleground states. there's also major news this morning out of afghanistan with with where u.s. marines ended operations. we want to begin this hour with growing outcry over the most dramatic step that some government officials, not some, but all have taken in response

to the ebola crisis. a nurse who had volunteered for doctors without borders before returning to the united states on friday, she remains in a mandatory quarantine in a new jersey hospital, but she is now speaking out through an essay that she managed to write while in quarantine and it was published late yesterday "dallas morning news" she is speaking out against the treatment she received in new jersey. when she landed at newark liberty international airport on friday, officials refused to give her information. they fed her only a granola bar and water, after she spent two days traveling back from africa. when they discovered hours later she might be feverish she was tra transported to the hospital in an eight-car caravan. the anger and stress she was feeling at her treatment, which left her face flushed. quoting her from her essay.

i am scared how health care workers will be treated at airports when they declare they have been fighting ebola in west africa. i wondered what i had done wrong i tried to help when much of the world has looked on and done nothing. first person quarantined under the new dramatic policy imposed on friday. it's a policy that requires that anyone who has had any contact with ebola patients in west africa be subject to a mandatory 21-day quarantine upon returning to the united states. now, only minutes ago florida governor rick scott signed an executive order in his state mandating twice daily 21-day health monitoring for people, all people returning from the ebola-infected areas of west africa. not just health workers, anyone. anyone for state officials deem to be at high risk. pat quinn instituted a quarantine in his state on

saturday. but this morning, the flip side of this. officials in washington, d.c., virginia and maryland, officials in all of those places are saying that they will not enact the same policy. they will not be imposing mandatory quarantines on medical workers returning from west africa, presumably through dulles international airport in virginia. sumanths samantha power has landed for a first-hand look on the situation on the ground there. she arrived in guinea overnight. meanwhile, health officials say dr. craig spencer who also worked with doctors without b d borders has entered a more serious phase of the virus. this is as anticipated and he is now undergoing treatment. dr. spencer's fiancee, who has not shown any symptoms of ebola, was released from the hospital to continue quarantine at home until november 14th. sarah is now live for us live outside the new york city hospital, bellevue hospital

where dr. spenceser being treated. we are hearing he is entering a more serious phase. what does that mean and what do they do for him in that phase? >> well, that is correct, steve. this news is really mixed today. his illness is progressing and entering this new stabling which includes gastrointestinal symptoms. you remember some of the hallmarks of ebola are these stomach problems. so, this isn't unexpected but it's not great news. however, dr. spencer is still awake and talking and we're also learning a liltal bit more about his treatment here inside the hospital. we learned within hours of being admitted he was given antiviral therapy. he also got a blood serm transfusion from nancy writebol. she was happy to give that blood donation and she is praying for

dr. spencer. dr. brantly also gave blood to two ebola patients, both of whom survived. now, back here at the hospital, dr. spencer came into contact with three people that officials have quarantined, including his fiancee who has now been released. she will wait out the rest of her quarantine period at her home. of course, she hasn't shown any signs or symptoms of the illness just yet. >> live in manhattan, thanks for joining us this morning. appreciate the update. we'll bring in the panel. evan mcmorris and republican pollster kelly ann conway. so, look, this, i think we'll set this up by having a quote here from chris christie. christie and cuomo and pat quinn out in illinois instituted these mandatory 21-day quarantines on friday. now we have this patient

speaking out, not only does she not like her own treatment, she thinks this will discourage other aide workers from going over to west africa. christie said, my heart goes out to her, she is trying to help others and she is ill. then christie continues and says, my first and foremost obligation is to protect the health and safety of people of new jersey. i'm sorry she was inconvenienced. but inconvenience that could occur from having folks that are symptommatic and ill out amongst the public is a much, much greater concern of mine. >> this isn't going to work. you can't have people coming back and being treated the way this woman is being treated and armored cars and the caravan and only a granola bar. i mean, this is a point where we're supposed to be seeing government doing the right thing

and having processes in place to deal with stuff like this and this quarantine thing is not a confidence booster. they have no idea what they're doing. i don't think chris christie sort of standard, look, just deal with it. it's my thing you have to deal with it. i think this is not going to work here. the same problem obama had in the white house. the government wants to see people acting well right now. >> reasons to me, one is just logistical. if this applies to new york, new jersey, applies to chicago and o'hare, but it doesn't apply to dulles and some of the other airports. then, you can fly back into new york and you could be subject to the quarantine or fly back anywhere else in the country and drive back to new york and no one is going to check. >> it has to start somewhere. these governors, let's remember the information in which they were dealing when they enacted these quor teens. it happened the day after this doctor was seen to have ebola

here in new york. people did freak out. people are worried about that. security mom has returned, if she ever receded. she doesn't feel safe and, steve, part of it is because people don't know. they don't know what they don't know and they're willing to admit that. looking for government response. has government overreacted and overreached? we don't know that yet. i'm grateful that it looks like dr. spencer will recover and this nurse tested negative. receiving all these calls from their constituents where people are generally nervous and being vocal about it. will it work? i'm not sure. a reasonable response from the information they had at that time. >> how do you think the public is receiving this? there is the story of the ebola patient in new york city and then, there was, i could see, some confusion there in terms of the messages people are getting. he was being very responsible

and self-quarantine and all that and, no, wait, he was on the subway and at the bowling alley. you shouldn't worry about that, but imposing a quarantine. what do you think the public -- >> i think that's absolutely right. dr. spencer lives within a short walking distance from where i live. his neighbors are my neighbors and we're on camera saying, how did he not self-quarantine? he is a doctor, he should know better than to go out to restaurants and bowling alleys and i think a lot of new yorkers that feel exactly the same way. >> the reaction in your neighborhood is basically he acted irresponsibly. >> if you think about new york, especially being on the subway, it's a very intimate experience. i think when you're looking at the number of people that live here and go through this city, a lot of folks that are very nervous. i don't know if the governor, the joint governors' measure will actually solve some of that

problem and lessen the panic and what i find interesting is that with the cuomo/deblasio response, it looked like government was working and people were being trained and it was somewhat measured that this response that the mayer and the federal government did not seem to be privy to beforehand, that it actually may do a lot more harm in terms of causing panic and causing a little bit more hysteria than it was intended to. >> and it's worth adding here, too, the real ebola crisis is in africa and making it harder to get american medical expertise to africa to help with the ebola crisis over there will keep ebola going for longer and more cases of it coming over here. i think we're seeing a lot of panic going on right now and when governors start to do it, i think people should be worried about it. >> on the positive side, we are deploying more resources and money and personnel to west

africa to help. this has raised the profile of the problem, thankfully. in any situation like this, steve, the question is, what is the burden to the individual versus the risk to others or to the larger population, which that person is a member. i think that's what some of these governors are balancing, i would note, because it's curious to me, two republican governors and three democratic governors, three of which are up for re-election this year. >> pat quinn in one of the closest races in the country. i want to talk about the response from the obama administration and the national government. the point you're making, kelly, i want to pick up on in the next block. an interesting quote from david alex rod, i want to tell you what that quote is and tell you about it when we come back. right under this tree. ♪ (man) some things are worth holding onto.

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president obama's long-time adviser david axelrod making comments about how the president manages crises, incruluding his response to ebola. the president being force under to grand public gestures. public confidence slipping, he took the step of canceling a campaign trip to hold an emergency campaign meeting on ebola and appointed a czar to coordinate the government's response. quoting axelrod, no doubt that there is a theatrical nacher to the presidency that he resists. sometimes he could be negligent in the symbolism. you know, i was thinking about that as we think about what cuomo and christie and pat quinn are doing in illinois and look at how campaign season politics are tied up in that. seems to me what they're all going for there, they're not looking at public health, but the mood of the public. a lot of concern and fear and

panic and saying a theatricality to this job. we need to be seen something dramatic and we'll order this kind of quarantine. what i'm hearing axelrod saying, that is the opposite of president obama's leadership style. a lot more logical. if the public health experts are telling me this, he'll resist something like that as a gimmick. we're seeing a fundamental difference in leadership style. >> a lot of people who criticize him for being the professor. there are times when he shows that kind of empathy. he comes to new jersey after sandy and hugs chris christie. but on the other hand after the beheading he goes and plays golf. i think that axelrod is true in that regard, but i don't know if the president didn't do what he was supposed to do in this instance, but i definitely think that he withdraws from some of the theatrical. >> it's one of the things that i

think from everything i read the public health aspects of this and what happened in new york and else where, it is pretty much by the book. there is a lot of things we can take reassurance from. you can imagine a different politician. if chris christie were president and the ebola crisis was playing out, he would be looking for that big, dramatic gesture he could take. might be counterproductive. >> when bill clinton was president. you could definitely see a different reaction. hillary clinton would have a similar reaction to barack obama. but, look, people expect the president, whomever he is, to be a little more emotionally invested when they feel like there are times of whether it's crisis in somebody's mind and not really a public health crisis. it almost doesn't matter when you're the public. what the public believes and perceives. to basil's very good point. when children are gunned down, there are adults and children are gunned down in arizona the president is out there the next

day soothing their fears. he is capable of it. but what axelrod is referring to, way too many democrats running for senate now, steve, they don't like it. they expect their president to be a little more emotionally invested. people are disappointed they didn't go to the border during the crisis. maybe these governors are more local and visible in ebola than he is. this whole notion that he's not one for theatrics is just kind of silly when you talk about anybody's run for president. at some point, if they're successful, as jennifer reuben points out in "washington post" he accepted the nomination with grecian pillars. he understands theatrics. >> how do you read it, evan? >> another example what i told chris christie earlier, this is not going to work either. people don't want the president to be, they're not looking for theatrics, necessarily. he hugged the nurse, i guess. if that's what you're looking

for. they want the government acting in ways that are sort of logical and direct and understandable and explainable. that's what we've seen early on, the beginning of this whole thing, guy comes to dallas, local hospital. we had the nurse that couldn't remove her garb correctly. all these things seem very strange and it didn't make any sense. we want to see somebody coordinating this and running this operation well. >> i'm not so sure the public wants the logical response and i'm not always necessarily sure about that. here's my example from this crisis. the idea of the travel ban. all the public health experts the nih and cdc and all speaking out and saying this is not something that we don't need, this is something that is counterproductive. when you polled it, though, it polled at 60% to 70%. people out there liked, something intuitive and something gut level about what people were feeling at the time.

not a justification for travel ban. the decisions that leaders are making in moments like this. something you have to grapple with. >> a salesmanship to the presidency. i think sometimes our president withdraws from that because he doesn't want to overpolites is something that, you know, you could impact people's lives in a certain way and he seemed insensitive about that. going back to your point about the gut response. i remember george bush and 9/11 speaking out of that bull horn and say they'll all hear us soon and something about that moment that people latched on to even in that moment of crisis that brought america to a point where we would be coalesced around that moment. whatever we felt about george bush before or after. >> no, people said that after the 2000 election. >> i think sometimes this president, i think he understands it going to the grecian columns point. but i think he often shies away from it and sometimes because there's no rhyme or reason to

when that seems to happen, it's hard for voters to connect to. >> when you look at the government and presidency different, they want it to look respond and look confident on this health matter and others. the president is the president whoever he is. he's not necessarily seen as the government. part individually and part management and also leadership. expect a people to show management and leadership. i think here they want him to be, president obama got elected twice in part because people said, i like you, but they also said you're like me. they felt that connective tissue. >> i want to say very quickly that the theatrics of this has been some of the worst parts of this ebola response. we have candidates on the campaign trail talking about isis coming across the border and ebola. i think we should focus on getting the crisis solved and getting the problem solved. and we've seen plenty of theatrics. we really have. we were talking about these governors signing these things

and we don't know if they're good or not. you can drive from virginia to new jersey in a couple hours and you're not going to get quarantined. so, isn't that just basically theatrics? i think a lot of the time that we're focusing on what looks great and what they would have done in the movie "hot zone". >> something to the art of politics that mixes smart application of science and expert advice from public health experts with, sort of a populous side of it, too, that you sell at a gut level. the best politicians out there. i think bill clinton was one of them. up next, the potential presidential candidate you may not have even considered yet. stay with us. (receptionist) gunderman group. gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic.

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certain re-election victory. he's prompting talk of a presidential campaign for a guy who has all of that going for him right now, ohio governor john kasich really seemed to step in it a little bit this week. he said that obama care repeal is off the table, even if republicans control both chambers of congress. "that's not going to happen." news earlier in the week and then kasich immediately called the associated press to try to clarify the remarks, he had given the remarks to them in an interview. he said he had been drawing a distinction between the main law between the affordable care act, obama care as a whole, which should be repealed and the medicaid expansion of the law which he says is here to stay. no medicaid extension without the medical care act. a dramatic illustration of how republicans are trying to navigate the politics of obama care as it's implemented. because it remains as a concept,

poisonously unpopular with its base. here also shows the fine line that kasich is trying to walk as he eyes a white house bid trying to appeal to the middle of the electorate. connie shultz recently asked, could the tea party derail john kasich's potential bid in 2016. here to discuss is connie shulz and steven moore. connie, i'll start with you. we have been looking at, you know it is a wide-open race on the republican side when everyone is talking about mitt romney, again. what that says to me, there is this opening for a safe establishment candidate, it was supposed to be christie. he has his issues now. jeb bush, but do people want the bush name, again. talking about romney. seems to me there is nobody else. that's why i keep saying kasich makes a lot of sense to me.

governor of a big swing state, ohio. tell us about what he's done out there because a couple years ago he seemed to be in grave danger, politically. i know his democratic opponent this year is self-destructed and is this a story of kasich getting lucky or pult himself in position where he is attractive nationally. >> this is where he landed this week because the visual is for me is him tumbling and brushing himself off and pretending he didn't trip. the telling detail in that whole trying to walk back what he just said was in "new york times" when asked what he would do in lieu of obama care, he had no answer. i'm not going to speak to that. that is a classic kasich move. you can't have medicaid expansion without obama care. he got pushed back because he is trying to figure out how to appease the right and also look like a moderate. after reporting the story for

politico, i have to say the tea party, as you know, is not a monolithic group. because they're not organized. you talked to people who identify as tea party, they'll give you 12 different reasons why they belong to the tea party. i'm not sure they're necessarily the threat. because he does step in it a lot and he has no tolerance for reporters. last week, he said he was not going to talk. he said, i've already talked to you kind of people for 10 1/2 hours, that is going to work really well in the national arena. and you're right, two years ago he was defeated on what was known as sb5. which was legislatively passed. he signed it to gut the collective bargaining rights of union members in the public sector and it was defeated by more than 60% of the vote. he really went down. >> hating on the press, i guess, gives him something in common with chris christie.

we can say that. steve moore, you're sort of our eyes and ears we like to think of it in the conservative movement. i'm curious as you guys are looking ahead to 2016 and that sort of, the way i set it up there, that search for an establishment candidate. when you look at kasich and what he is saying and this fine line he is trying to walk on obama care, what do you guys think about it? >> you open up the segment as talking about kasich the candidate nobody is paying attention to him. they should pay attention to him ten days from how. he will win this re-election race by 10 to 20 points. a big blowout. it's ohio for goodness sakes. republicans have to win ohio if they're going to win the white house. that's the formula for republican victories going back to reagan. so, there is a great appeal to john kasich, successful governor re-elected by big, big margin. look, what has tripped him up. why is there so much reservation about john kasich among the

conservatives i talked to, steve. it is because of what you were just discussing. ruffles the feathers of a lot of conservatives, but not only -- john kasich is a friend of mine. i have known him since the budget director. he was the budget director, not the budget director that ran the house budget committee in the mid-1990s when we balanced the budget, but not only take the medicaid money but became very sanctimonious. i took this money because i care about poor people. that didn't play too well with the conservatives that i talked to. >> can he, steve, can he or any republican in 2016 appeal to the republican primarily universe by making the distinction he's making by trying to say, he had this thing called obama care, but the medicaid expansion, i want to stick with it. can you survive as a republican to do that? >> i think a lot of republicans are pivoting on obama care and a lot of people like ted cruz will

talk about repeal and now republicans are talking about more what i call an off ramp from obama care. that is to say, okay, you can stay in obama care, if you want it, but we as republicans will offer alternatives that are more affordable and provide you a better quality of care and that is one direction republicans are talking about. the other quick thing, steve, john kasich. i do believe he will run as kind of the sort of establishment moderate and you're going to, i think you're going to end up with three candidates standing. you're going to have some conservative like mike pence or a ted cruz and you're going to have an establishment candidate like chris christie or john kasich and then the libertarian, rand paul. this is how this whole thing is going to sort out and ayou're going to end up with three, i think. >> connie out there in ohio, is the expectation that as soon as election day ends is the expectation that ohio is pivoting and look national as soon as he gets re-elected here?

>> push so-called right to work. he won't flat out say he won't. he's not really a moderate when you look at what he's done to women's reproductive rights and what he did with volting rights here in the state of ohio. i find it amusing that they're using this attempt to cast him as a moderate. as far as obama care goes. i think and i hope the national media will be asking this a lot because i certainly expect that ohio reporters will, who will lose his or her health care now? who will you take it away from. a lot of people in the state of ohio benefiting and many for the first time in their lives have benefiting from care. who loses that health care? that is a very important question and at this point john kasich, not only does he not have an answer, he doesn't have the patient for the question. temperament matters. >> i think that's a question for, you know, going forward nationally just in terms of looking at the republican

universe in 2016 grappling with the republican base doesn't like the idea of obama care, but it's in place and there are people benefiting from it and you have to grapple with it. tough choices there. connie shultz and steven moore joining us this morning. appreciate the time. major new milestone in afghanistan this morning. we'll tell you what it is, nextpetp. uhh... um... hold on. introducing the all-new volkswagen golf. plenty of room for whatever life throws at you.

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even in this electronic age a lot of stuff comes in the mail, including in an increasing number of states, ballots. one of those states is colorado. because state mails ballots to all voters, whether the polls are underestimating how many democrats are going to vote on election day. the argument boils down to this. we know that the democratic base doesn't tend to turn out as much in term-term elections like this year. if all they have to do is fill out a ballot that is sent to them, maybe more will take part. a survey conducted in colorado this week by a democratic advocacy group that found 82% of democrats who voted in 2012 in the presidential election that year but not in 2010 in the mid-terms that year. 82 of them received ballots and 61% of them said they are planning to vote. the other 22% say they have

already voted. this is key because the polls have been rough for democrats in colorado, particularly for senator mark udall, running four points behind cory gardner in the average of all polls. democrats are scrambling to hold on to the senate and losing udall in colorado would be a tough blow for them. are the polls missing something or is that just wishful thinking. john joins us from denver. thank you for taking a few minutes. i know it's very early out there. you've seen this memo we make reference to in there and basically the argument is being made that in colorado voters who are not getting polled, pollsters assuming aren't going to show up, like everybody else in the state, they were mailed ballots and a lot easier to vote this way. they're going to surprise people with their turnout. what do you make of that? >> the polls are the big question in colorado, whether it's a senate race or the governor's race. like you said, are they

capturing the right universe of people? the one number we do know outside of all polling is 22% of those who voted in 2012, but not 2010, that's how much they make of the populous now. that's a decent number and democrats will need that number to be a little bigger if they're going to win on election day and try to get out the vote and make that happen right now. two dprups, re groups that are democrats would tell you are missing. latino voters make up 14% of the state's electorate and expect to make up 9% of this midterm and younger voters, which is the survey your mentioned. capturing a lot of these people who don't typically vote and didn't vote in 2010 and reachable by cell phone. they don't typically answer polls. so, there is a question about whether they're being left out of the broader numbers. >> so, what has your experience been like in colorado? i know this is the first time that we had ever voter being sent the ballot in the mail and

a lot of states where i'm from. very old school. you have to go to the polling place in election day and pull the lever and all that state. in a state like colorado where it's done by mail. what is the experience like? are more people in general participating because of that? >> the one interesting number that we're paying attention to as we get to election day. the campaign suggests less than 10% possibly of voters will actually cast ballots on election day. that's a huge number. colorado has had mail-in ballot since 1992. and back in 2012, 70% of folks received mail ballots. today, yes, that universe has expanded that is keeping colorado a swing state because republicans will tell you they're up 3 to 4 points on average in the u.s. senate race. but democrats will tell you the polls aren't capturing everything and this mail ballot is a wild card for both sides of the campaign. >> john, really appreciate you getting up very early mountain time. we appreciate that.

coming up in just a few minutes,e will have brand-new nbc polling information from colorado on that senate race. brand-new poll coming out in just minutes. polls from five other key states, as well. all sorts of new numbers. we'll hear about them here first. stay with us. [ narrator ] on a mission to get richard to his campbell's chunky soup. it's new chunky beer-n-cheese with beef and bacon soup. i love it. and mama loves you. ♪ (receptionist) agunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying. goal is to grow. gotta get greater growth. i just talked to ups. they got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. like smart pick ups. they'll only show up when you print a label and it's automatic. we save time and money. time? money? time and money. awesome. awesome! awesome! awesome! awesome! (all) awesome! i love logistics.

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now, that's progressive. so, we talk all the time about the great political environment that republicans find themselves in this year. a good shot at taking back the senate and an apparent lock on the senate, at least for now. but those paths are narrow. but, the political reality is very different when you go to the states. when you look at the state level and you look at governors because you look there and democrats are playing offense and hoping to wrack up some big wins. tom corbett already appears to be on his way out. he's down double digits and has been down double digits the way way in that race. scott walker is in danger of

being ousted by mary burke. right now in this segment we wanted to focus on the republican. the republican governors that are coming down to the wire. a little bit more in the week before the election right now. three reporters from three of the most suspenseful races in the country joining us now on the ground in their states. three very different races here and want to go through these one at a time. mary who is the editorial for "sun setinal." she joins us from ft. lauderdale this morning. we'll start with you and i want to put on the screen, this is the average of all the polls taken in florida. former independent running as a democrat in the average of all polls leading rick scott now 44 to 43. excuse me, 42.8 to 41.8. a one-point lead in the average of all polls. now, i know a month or two ago if you looked at that, scott was ahead. so, what is happening in florida? does it look like crist has the

momentum, what is going on? >> it has been about a month since we saw scott ahead in the polls but these polls are still dead even. it's within the margin of error. but there was one interesting fact in the quinipiaac poll this week. even though more republicans have turned in their absentee ballots and early voted. among people who voted, this poll showed that 42 to 48, more people were voting for charlie crist. so, people are trying to read the tea leaves in this poll to see which way the wind is blowing because it's so close. >> florida is one of those states a lot of early voting going on and see stats from different states. do we have enough data to know how to interpret that ahead of an election? >> well, there have been a million and a half people who have already voted in florida and that's about 30% of the

people who voted in the last gub gub gubernatorial election. the ground game here is so in advance of election day. there will be so many votes that have already been cast. so, it's interesting to see how the republicans are getting their vote out. and, obviously, the numbers show they're doing a better job. but the democrats, especially in south florida where so much of the democratic vote is in florida. they are not going to endorse, especially in black communities. they have the football teams ready to go out on sunday to help bring people to the polls to early vote. >> all right, now, go up atlantic coast here to maine. bill and the "maine sunday telegram." got some news courtesy of your newspaper. this has been the average of all the polls in this wild governor's race up there. everybody knows paul lepage. got elected in that three-way race in 2010 hoping to benefit

from a three-way race again this year. in the average of all polls he is trailing barely and very close race and elliot cutler running farther back, but today your newspaper has a new poll out that raised a lot of eyebrows and puts paul lepage ahead and 35 for michaud and 16 for cutler. i talked to democrats who say this is an outliar. what is your interpretation of what's going on up there? >> well, steve, it really caught everybody by surprise, us included. a month ago, this was essentially a dead heat and now lepage has taken off to a big lead and we expect the response to be different depending on who you are talking to. the democrats see it as an outlie. particularly after maine's televised debates which had not taken place prior to the earlier poll. so, what it is is basically a

shockwave that has gone through the maine electorate. the 2010 race which we had which you mentioned was a three-way race. in these final days going up to the election, maine's election was extremely volatile a lot of movement away from the democrat and towards cutler. right now the movement seems to be to lepage and what is the independent going to do and how many people who now support the independent are going to vote strategically for michaud. the real question now is how that's going to coalesce. >> we had eliot cutler on the show at the start of the summer and he told us, basically, we were asking about the scenario. what if you get lepage re-elected. i'm going to look up and left open the possibility, hey y can't win, i want lepage out. is anything like that happening? >> no.

the cutler campaign has based its whole strategy on that happening and our poll today, as you said, has in it 16%, which is where he's been pretty much throughout the summer and into the fall. so, yeah, it is kind of the moment of truth for eliot cutler. very few people if any out there looking at this, even given today's numbers and thinking he could win. he's either going to have to double down and look for a real miracle or reassess his viability as a candidate. whether he does that or not, i think a lot of his supporters are watching all of these developments very closely and based on what i've heard from some of them, they're not going to need eliot cutler's permission if voting for him is going to reassure the re-election of lepage. very much in the hearts of minds of the individual voter right now, although we're still waiting to hear what eliot cutler is going to do.

>> so, garret, reporter for khab in kansas city joins us now. garret, one of my favorite races, the race for kansas governor, it's just amazish that it is competitive. the polling average, sam brownback, a lot of people think he wants to run in 2016. he is trailing in the average of polls out there by a little less than a point. paul davis the democrat still leading slightly out there. tell us about that race, garret. democrats have had their eye on this one. you want to tell us it is a bad year in washington, if we beat sam brownback and we have something to brag about, too. what's going on? >> about two months ago when paul davis announced his candidacy and first started to gain some traction, you were seeing some of these polls that had him up eight, nine, ten points. brownback closed the gap there over the last several months. davis benefitted from not being sam brownback. specifically on tax cuts and

cuts to education. but brownback has been able to move the needle a little bit back closer, but you look at sort of the last three or four public polls have all had paul davis right around that magical 50% mark and brownback hasn't been able to move north of about 44%, which is bad news for him. but still outspending davis pretty significantly and they managed to do, the republicans have decent work in defining paul davis, who hasn't really stepped up to offer much more of himself than not beating sam brownback, which is the defining narrative this whole time. >> is there a difference, we look at the senate race out there and brownback and davis, is the expectation that they're going to track identically. if you're voting for brownback and voting for roberts or are these two different groups of voters we're talking about? >> the same group of voters and that might end up being a problem for paul davis. depending on how you look at it. little bit of voter psychspsych here.

kansas voters majority overwhelmingly and do they pull the lever twice for candidates who are not republicans? it's sort of a big ask to say we're going to throw out what was formally a very popular governor, a long-time kansas politician. brownback was the senator here before and pat roberts. do you vote both of them or a mental calculus that says, on the one hand, i can vote for an independent and at least he's not a democrat or kansas has this pretty strong history of sending democratic governors to the governor's mansion. kathleen sebelius just recently. horse trading among their own minds when they're in the voting booths next week. it could be very interesting. >> it already has been. appreciate all of you joining us and getting up early for that today. really appreciate it, thank you. nine days until the election, as we said. six key states, six brand-new polls from those states about to be released. we are going to show you who's

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right for you. what the hostages endured before they were beheaded. all right. thanks for staying with us this hour with only nine days to go before the election we have brand-new newly released polls coming out this minute to discuss from the pivotal battleground states. a couple governorships to six states and a bunch of races surprising results and you're about to hear it all here first. but before that, we want to start by discussing a very powerful story on the front page of this morning's "new york times." concerns the final days, weeks and months in life of american journalist james foley before being beheaded by isis earlier this year. what foley went through based on

interviews with former hostages who escaped or released. beaten, starved arepeatedly waterboarded and mock executions many times before the real thing. he watched as his fellow hostages were released and their countries paying millions in ransom. the americans and brits, and his fellow hostages believed that the u.s. would negotiate for his release, too. in a new interview with "daily beast" his parents appear angry that that didn't happen. they describe the phone call president obama made to them after their son was executed in which they say the president told them about the government's attempt to rescue foley. i told the president that jim worked hard to get him elected. foley's family was unconvinced by the president's sympathy

call. in between golf games, mind you, he did not stop to call us in the middle of his vacation. joining me now is nbc news foreign correspondent aman who reported extensively. thanks for joining us this morning. reading this account, i encourage everybody. drenching to read it and james foley say anything else, he's a great american. that is what come s through in this story. it raises the question of ransom, too. all these european countries and these prisoners are basically grouped according to what country they're from. the hostage takers know which countries are paying the ransoms and which aren't and a bunch of them get out and they go home and their governments pay the money. here, in our case, apparently, not only does the united states have the policy of not paying ransoms but foley's family was starting a collection to get him out and they were told by the government, no, you can't do that.

you'd be breaking the law. left in this desperate situation. what your take is on the whole question of ransoms? >> that is a difficult question for me to answer. i'm not a parent. i think if you're a parent and you see your son in a situation like that, you'll move heaven and earth to do what you can to try and free and rescue them. at the same time, i can understand what the u.s. government's position is based on. there are hundreds, if not, you know, dozens at least journalists and other americans that are working in these dangerous types of environments. if there is a pattern of willingness to pay ransoms, then i think you can see a spike at least in trying to go after americans. i think you really have to look at the data and see if the data substantiate the government's position. if there is a willingness by the government to pay ransoms that you see an uptick in them going after your nationalities. i don't necessarily know that there is enough data on that to make a fact-based decision.

from an emotion decision, i think parents will always do whatever they can to bring back their loved ones no matter what the government does or tells them is legal or not legal. >> diane foley, this is from this article. she says the enemy is isis not our government. all we are saying is that our government can do better for our citizens. this is not over yet. still americans over there and still brits over there facing the same, eit seems to be the same basic dynamic. they're being held there and the ransom is being demanded and the british government isn't going to pay it. do you see since all these beheadings have started, any other avenues to get these people out? >> this is a very important point to make. the u.s. government did say it launched a special operations forces mission to try to go after james foley. that is more than the european countries that had theirs kidnapped. as a matter of policy, that is

one issue. according to the u.s. government, the fact that they launched the special operations mission over the summer which was not successful in rescuing james foley, it's a sign that the u.s. is very aggressive in trying to bring back any of its citizens that have been kidnapped. we have seen several u.s. missions that have been successful in the past whether bringing back soldiers or citizens that have been kidnapped and else where. so, that's certainly a lot more than european countries. i can't recall the french government attempting a rescue to get their nationals. that is why they have taken the approach let's pay the ransom for their nationals. >> maybe you can hope if "new york times" can talked to release hostages and maybe american government can and provide intelligence to help with something like that. we all hope so. aman, thank you. we appreciate you taking the time. good insight there. and turning now to the election, which is now, as we

said, just nine days away and here we have those brand-new poll numbers we have been telling you about. brand-new polling information. hot new numbers off the press as they were coming into us just seconds ago. from six of the key battleground states. brand-new data on where those races stand and the panel is back here to go through that with me, kelly, evan and basil. six states here and a bunch of numbers from each of them. starting with kansas. just talking about kansas. there is the latest number, it shows greg orman the independent one point ahead of pat roberts. the last time they surveyed this race, a ten-point lead and roberts is closing the gap there and also a poll in the governor's race out there. again, just talking about this and you can see exactly what we just showed you. paul davis barely ahead of sam brownback. we move to iowa, joni ernst, running three points ahead of

bruce braley. the last time we surveyed it, it was two. looking at colorado, this is a state we were also talking about earlier, question of how accurate the polls are. one of the better polls that the democrats have gotten in colorado for a while. a one-point gap udall against gardner. and polls showing him down five, six, seven points. also a governor's race in colorado. we can put that up for you. new number there. john hickenlooper ahead of udall and we should also note the gender gap in colorado. a big story out there, udall winning women by 11 and gardner winning men by 15. arkansas, next state we have for you. big senate race there. you have tom cotton running two points ahead of mark pryor, the incumbent. one of the better polls that mark pryor has seen lately. falling further and further behind lately. two points behind in the nbc poll here.

next one, north carolina. dead even. kay hagan and thom tillus. one of the states where hagan has been leading and a sign on election night that if this goes to tillus. if they're winning north carolina, probably is. the last one we want to show you, this one, i think, it's time now we can say, back to the red column. there was some suspense here in south dakota. a poll that said, wow, a crazy three-way race. gravity has asserted itself in south dakota. rick weiland at 29 and larry pressler at 16. when i'm doing the big board, south dakota will be red. new numbers, guys. what do you think of these? >> it was nice fakeout by democrats on the south dakota thing. >> fun while it lasted. >> i'll leave the poll analysis to kelly who knows a lot more about this than me. i will say something interesting about this. the democrats sort of setting up

this blame game for a bad night on election night. looking at these races, democrats have been saying right along that in a close election their turnout is supposed to win. so, we're going to see now we're putting it to the test, it looks like, in almost every single one of these very tight, tight races. the other thing that stands out to me from what you're showing is the idea that the democrats have been talking about with this women gap and there is some talk that cory gardner, the republican in colorado were able to close that and had the goods to end that for republicans. that does not seem to be accurate either. >> you're getting closer. democrats are getting much closer to what they want to be getting there in terms of a gender gap. >> just this incredible back and forth. they take money out of kentucky ask they put money back into kentucky. they have taken money out of a race in virginia, so, there's a house race in virginia. so looks like in many respects democrats for a period of time were on the offense and now, in some respects, playing defense

to keep some of the seats that they hold near and dear to them. but i think one thing that is also striking is that the haguen race is still close to considering all the money they have been putting in there. hillary was just there the other day talking about women's equality and i think there's a lot of investment, but in some of the southern states and appalachian states, in particular. but we're starting to see a lot of the earlier good chances of winning in some of the states now receding. and i'm curious to see what happens. >> i've heard on north carolina, the comment made that hagan has run the better campaign than tillus, she's been leading all the way. if she ends up losing this thing, that is the ultimate statement of, this is a state that is voting. personality doesn't matter, campaign doesn't matter. if republicans win the state, that's why. >> north carolina was the only

one of the nine swing states that governor romney carried over president obama in the end in 2012. there's that. steve, this is where the fun begins for professional pollsters. nine days out and over a million people have voted early in these states. state like iowa will have maybe 32%, 35% of voters will have voted pby the time election day comes around. here we go, a high number of undecideds strikes me. you still in some of these states double digit undecided. ads going on for two years. they tend to be more female than male. tend to be a little bit younger. the question is, will they turn out. the older young people will turn out. 25 to 32. >> i'm not even older/younger any more. >> imagine being a pollster and every birthday you think you're a new demographic. terrible feeling. then everybody stuck in the mid-40s. but they've all been in the

mid-40s for months. the entire time. the question is, not going to be the president's approval rating and jobs in the economy, that's all baked in the cake. not the war on women stuff, either. if that's important to you one way or another, it's probably going to be some type of security feeling whether it's national security, border security. this feeling that we don't have control, we need leadership. but i'm fascinating to see it. in some of these races education will be determinative. go offense on education, charter school choice against common core and i think even if cory gardner loses the vote, he is able to neutralize the war on women where he earned the "denver post" endorsement. i think the war on women has run its course. female senators in the south who won't dare touch it, mary landrieu, alison grimes. >> but colorado it seems to me

is the test of it this year. that's where the democrats. it works so well for them in 2010 in the senate race and in 2010 with president obama and they have really used that strategy in colorado. a week ago we were talking on the show and where is the gender gap in colorado? this poll is telling us, maybe it is starting to merge. >> don't you feel like the numbers would be lot, don't you feel like the numbers would be a lot better for republicans if they didn't have some sort of remaining policy problems of their own? this is an election where incumbents are really not, nobody wants an incumbent. nobody wants these people back. send them home. nobody wants them back in washington. but, yet, these elections are so close. doesn't that indicate that the republicans still have a lot of issue problems that they have to deal with? isn't that where they're having problems? >> no, i think they've been vasticalvas vastly outspent. people love to say i'm for change and revolution and they come to times square and they

see aladdin and cinderella and these same people vote and love to say i'm for change. particularly when the world is on fire. >> we got olive garden and aladdin. >> serious about making change. i do think republicans still have an advantage of taking the senate. the big story on election night, how many governors lose. governors usually don't lose. >> 8 is the number. we put up yesterday. 8 or more will lose it with senate panel. appreciate it. do polls like this really matter when millions of americans just hinted at this. millions of americans have voted in this election. what is the point of the campaign home stretch and look at that issue of early voting, when we come back. 'll double the it 30 gigs for the same price. 30 gigs? wow - that's a lot. you don't have to do that for me. oh, that's ok... (interrupting) seriously, i wouldn't want you to get in trouble... it's the same plan for everyone. families...businesses...whoever.

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we're past the middle of october in the election season which means there is some time for an october surprise. revelations or stories about candidates that surfaced weeks or days before an election and shake everything up. but the october surprise actually now an outdated concept because so many americans have voted long before the election. because 33 states and the district of columbia have some form of early voting and more than 7 million people have already voted. president obama voted early and cast his ballot in his hometown of chicago this week. not a new phenomenon. ballots that were cast early in oregon, washington, colorado, all voters now receive their ballots in the mail weeks in advance. they can turn them in or mail them in, or do it in person on election day.

in arizona, you can get a choice. you can vote by mail or voted in person starting october 9th. in florida, early voting started yesterday and going to run until next saturday. you only have a week to vote early there. in idaho, early voting started back in september and ends next friday. you have different states and different rules and different voting periods. what does election day even mean any more when you have early voting? early vote, is it a good idea? here to discuss this, we have host of rolston reports, john rolston and judith brown diana. john, i'll start with you because i read a thing you wrote, i guess it's a couple years old. a strong take on why you don't like early voting and go ahead and make it. >> steve, the greatest problem i have seen in politics and covering it for 25 years civic engagement. i think early voting for too

many people is a way to say, okay, i just want this over with and i'll go vote. without getting all the information that he or she needs to get before election day and then the other argument, which is the one that you made that doesn't even have to be an october surprise, but something could happen. you could get a mail piece that shows you that a candidate is willing to do something that indicates a character flaw. they could put a tv ad on that is so offensive that will show you something. why not get all the information. i mean, voting is supposed to be the most sacred right we have as americans. i think this is a way not to take it as seriously. not to get all the information. one last case here, steve. is that the argument is it's supposed to increase turnout because of all this alienation from getting involved in civic engagement. that is not true. in fact, here in nevada it is not helped and we are going to have historically low turnout this year despite having two weeks of early voting.

>> you heard his case against it, what do you say to that? >> i would agree that voting is a sacred right. and because it is a sacred right that means that we should have a lot of opportunity to actually cast that ballot. it also means that voting should be easy. we don't want to have hurdles to voting. having a voting period that is restricted to one day is absolutely ridiculous. when, in fact, what we need is to have a period of time where people can participate. now, with regard to elections and candidates, it just means that that october surprise better come in september. it means that if you have information, you need to court your constituents earlier. really, if you look at a place like north carolina, for example. in 2012, 70% of african-americans voted earlier. it's easier for people who are working. it's easier for students to cast those ballots during that period of time. >> i guess the question, though, there's a huge range here.

the state that i'm from in massachusetts, you don't have early voting. unless you're out of state and you request the absentee ballot and other states start doing it in september. i wonder if there is a case to make this uniform if we're going to have some form of it. the other thing, judith, i think back to the 2012 and the final days of the campaign when super storm sandy hit. remember mike bloomberg, the mayor of new york, sat at that campaign and made his endorsement. made his endorsement because of how barack obama handled that. it was the decisive issue for him and i think for a lot of people, too. mitt romney lost because of super storm sandy, i'm not sure i buy that, but relates how it could change people's perception of candidates. >> i do think there are those moments like the sandy, but, quite frankly, if you're doing your homework you kind of know who the candidates are.

you know what they stand for. you know what bloomberg stood for. so, i don't think that that actually is a hindrance. i think that people need to have a period of time that is more open. i do believe that we do need to have some national standards around early voting. so, for example, a place like virginia does not have early voting. so, we do need to have national standards, but we really need to open up the opportunity, the number of days where people can cast a ballot because not everybody has the luxury of being able to turn out on a tuesday between 8:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. in order to cast a ballot. >> jon, this is my solution to it, tell me what you think of it? election day, national holiday. get the day off, you don't have to vote if you don't want to, but if you want to, you got the day off. >> you took the words out of my mouth, steve. i think that's a great solution and it would allow people to have all day that they wouldn't have to be at work and they would be able then to wait and

see all the information. you brought up the great case of sandy. back here in 2006, we had a governor running for election, a gubernatorial candidate by the name of jim gibbons and three separate scandals by the last couple weeks and by the time the last one was uncovered tens of thousands of people voted who did not have the benefit of that information and, again, i say, to just say that you can go down to the store and vote or go to the library, go to the polling place and vote early, to me, it diminishes the importance of your vote. have a national holiday, have people go out there. have people do the things that they're not doing any more, you know, the sunday night or the monday night before election night families used to get together and talk about the candidates. talk about politics. it would encourage more civic engagement. >> judith, we're short on time, but we'll give you the final word. >> people still do that. even when you're doing early voting. yes, we should have a national

holiday, but, still, our system is not built so that everybody can go vote on one day. that's why we have to have multiple votes so we can make i our democracy and lift up their voices. >> thanks for joining us and enjoy that discussion. it's an interesting one. one of the nation's top health officials is speaking out against the ebola quarantines. what he is saying and why. we'll have it for you next. i sure hope so. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor.... can get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today. (receptionist) gunderman group is growing. getting in a groove. growth is gratifying.

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we are just days away from the 2014 election. if you couldn't tell by now, follow elections pretty closely. but at a certain point, there are some things that start to blur. at least one of those things for me are numbers about money in politics. $300,000 here, $1.5 million ad there. easy to lose count. here is a figurine i could understand. it estimated $4 billion is going to be spent on this election cycle when all is said and done, according to the center for responsive politics. that number, $4 billion is a 10% increase since the last mid-terms. that money means in places like north carolina, for six consecutive days this month the negative ad ran on an average of once per minute for the senate race alone. negative television ad. once every minute. where is all the money to pay

for all of this coming from? who are the big players here putting up the money? how much are they giving? who are they giving it to? what is the most important question, what do they want for all of it? here to break it down for us is ken vogel. author of the big "big money" and, ken, thanks for joining us today. so, we have some of the bigger players from a money standpoint and want to go through them with you and tell people, we'll start with tom and i think people might know the name, tom stire, hedge fund guy, lots of money. he's spending heavily on the issue of climate change. tell us exactly where is this money going and who is he supporting, in particular, and is he getting anything out of it? >> tom steyer emerged as the biggest donor on the left for sure. $60 million that he set up called nextgen climate action that is specifically focused on elevating the issue of climate change.

that is really his cause. he wants the whole american body politic, but particularly the democratic party to be more aggressive on proposing solutions to climate change. so, what he had hoped to do was kind of become a coke brothers equivalent on the left. that is to give his own money, but also to be able to rally support from other donors to raise big money for his superpac. he originally proposed giving $50 million and raising $50 million. well, he's given more than $50 million, but he hasn't raised that much and sort of raised questions on the left about, "a" whether there is the appetite for the type of single issue giving and, "b," whether folks are willing to go outside of the official party mechanism to an individual donor/leader, operative type like tom steyer. >> now, speaking of, you mentioned the koch brothers, david coch and huge sources of

money for the republicans. are they spending it everywhere this year and anything in particular that they're looking for? >> yeah, they are. the short answer to the part of the question, they are spending it everywhere. they are on pace to spend around $290 million through this vast network of nonprofits that they've set up. as well as the superpac, actually, a new sort of piece in their arsenal and going into all the contested senate races in a big way. even in some house races, even though a little bit less. what they said that they want is really fisccally conservative candidates that are more of the tea party mode than of the big establishment gop mold. however, they have increasingly become more associated with and evolve would the republican party. quite a far cry from where david koch was as the libertarian vice presidential candidate. they still do believe in libertarian causes. in some ways they own civil

libertarian-type issues and drug reform, for instance, as well as on foreign policy and much more noninterventionalest than the meat of t republican party. >> here's another name everybody knows. sheldon adelson. he for a while was single handlely keeping the newt gingrich campaign alive. my understanding, i have a hard time figuring this guy out. from what i can tell he is about casinos in israel. am i missing anything in there? >> a little bit on the anti-union stuff, but just giving is really motivated primarily by israel. steve, you are not alone in figuring this guy out. even the operatives who want his money and beg him for his money can't figure this guy out. he and his wife really embody the this new, big money.

they're willing to give a lot of money and less willing to listen to advice and political calculations subsidizing the newt gingrich campaign and all the gop operatives including some who were very close to him were going to him and begging to him, please, stop giving us money to keep newt gingrich alive. you are hurting our eventual chances of defeating barack obama. he wasn't willing to listen to anybody in this case in 2014. they were begging him for money, the gop operatives for months and months and munonths and can the money he gives used effectively? >> it made the race a lot more interesting. last one on here and this was the interesting one, a super pac called maday. this is the super pac to end all superpacs. the idea is to raise money through crowd sourced ways and raise money to spend money to

elect people to get money out of politics. we're going to be talking in a minute, but tell us how that's working. >> well, there are sort of mixed results. difficult to find a race in which they have played and tried to elevate the issue of campaign finance that you can definitively conclude campaign finance was a major factor in this. but, you know, for the most part, voters are more concerned about sort of pocketbook issues whether it be health care with obama care or the really sort of stagnant recovery that we're seeing with the economy. and even foreign policy issues with the rise and the threat of isis and those are all issues that sort of animate more voters as a top voting priority than campaign finance. occasionally we'll see a race in which campaign finance rises to the top in the 2000, actually both 2000 presidential primaries. bill bradry on the democratic side and john mccain on the republican side. really raised it on an issue

with enron and worldcom scandals. i don't see the situation being synonymous now. no big campaign finance scandal. that are really making voters pay attention to campaign finance in a way that would sort of generate the popular will that generates the political will to really significantly change the campaign finance laws and regimen in our country. >> ken vogel author of "big money" a good time to have that position. ken, thanks for joining us this morning. appreciate it. >> thanks, steve. we'll turn to the chairman of the super pac. heard ken talking about may day a minute ago. we'll talk right after this. and. but systems policed by hp's cyber security team are constantly monitored for threats. outside and in.

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"seinfeld" but you can can him in this senate campaign ad. >> paid for by the patriot action. >> paid for by, paid for by -- do you know what paid for by really means? a billion dollars in the last election. our government is filled with people who have been paid for. but no one should have more influence than you. that's what rick weilland is committed to. help us make a world where paid for by -- is a thing of the past. >> that's a hollywood star appearing in a south dakota campaign ad. the race for senate there, part of the campaign to reduce the influence of money in politics. the super pac, the super pac that is designed to end super pac and he joins us now. larry, let me start by, let's

put a practical example on this for people. a race going on between pat roberts and greg orman the independent challenger. your guys, your group went into kansas and i think it was $774,000. that can buy you a lot out there. you put that money down behind greg orman. if greg orman wins this election, what are you getting in return for it? >> well, what we're showing is the way in which people will rally to this issue. we're not getting anything from greg orman. what we're going to get is from the pollsters who demonstrate after the election the number of people who made their decision on the basis of this issue. even in the new hampshire race, which we ran, when we were in the republican primary, we found 37% of people said this issue, this corrupting issue of money and politics was the primary issue that made them decide who to vote for and for those people, we supported beat scott brown by 18 points.

so, in each of these cases, what we're doing is fighting the conventional wisdom that ken was uttering in the earlier segment. the conventional wisdom that americans don't care about this. going into the districts and making this an issue and then moving voters on the basis of this issue so that in the next election cycle, the conventional wisdom can't be that people don't care about this issue because we find they do care about this issue and we think we're able to move voters and win races based on it. >> someone like orman and feel free to pick an example of someone you're supporting. you want to make a point, i get that. what is it he said that said, hey, if you care about campaign finance reform, you need to be voting for greg orman. some kind of promise there or assurance, no? >> absolutely. greg orman has been incredibly articulate about what he calls the legalized bribery of the legal system. constantly attacking the way money is driving policies in

washington and with opponent pat roberts and he has supported. he has signaled to support something called the anti-corruption act which is one of the most important changes in the way we regulate lobbyists and the way we raise money in campaigns for american politics. another race the one you opened with in south dakota. we went into south dakota and a coalition led by a group called every voice. we put up a million dollars and they put up a million dollars and we upped that by another half million dollars. nobody thought there was any chance other than the republican could win, mike rounds. but they both have made this corruption an essential issue of their campaigns. the whole frame for the campaign is, take it back, take it back from the special interests. after we put that money in, now the dsec has put a million dollars in and that race is open and it is opened because of the corruption that they see mike rounds in the middle of.

he has this huge scandal. >> earlier in the show, we got brand-new polling numbers and from what i am told, more coming in the next tew days. in south dakota after a big spike in interest and we had the candidates on our show a few weeks ago and rounds has pulled well ahead now. the best he has been polling all year and pressler crashed down to 16 and does raise the question, the flipside of this is maybe you can win with orman. you go into a state like south dakota and try to make a statement like that. if the polling we are seeing now is accurate and mike brown runs away with this ithing, you have some egg on your face. >> we are making a big gamble that you can demonstrate something by the way people change their votes or move their votes and that's what we're doing in that race. that's what we're doing across the range. but, what we need to do is not necessarily win 100% of the votes or even 50% of the votes. what we need to do is demonstrate a significant

portion of voters who care enough about this so it's important for people to actually want to make this an issue that they talk about. not everybody, not even 50% of the candidates, but we need enough to make it so that we can win a congress committed to fundamental reform and that's the strategy we're playing in right now. >> lawrence lessig, appreciate you getting up this morning. thanks for that. up next, back to the big board. we'll break down the two races, the two key races that are the reason there is so much suspense about the senate right now. we'll tell you about those states right after this. uhh... um... hold on. introducing the all-new volkswagen golf. plenty of room for whatever life throws at you.

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[ high-pitched ] nailed it! i keep talking about how this is the most suspenseful election i can remember. we've had high stakes elections in last few years but this is most suspenseful because we don't which party will be controlling the senate. we don't know which one will be controlling an election. two big reasons for that, two

specific reasons. i want to show you what the reasons are. to the big board, you've been seeing a lot of this. i love using this thing. we've pulled it out to illustrate this point. note, we had the south dakota poll earlier, making south dakota red, leaving us with battleground of ten states in yellow, where there's suspense about who is going to win the senate races in those states. what we're going to do is make a hypothetical exercise here, we're going to start awarding some of the states based on how polls are now. so, for instance, we'll look up to new hampshire, jeanne shaheen, democrat seems to be leading there, could lose, but right now we'll say blue for than north carolina, same store k. with kay hagan leading, could still lose, we'll make it blue. states like that for the republicans as well. we'll color those in. kentucky with mitch mcconnell seems more likely to go to him than not. arkansas, a close poll earlier today, but the news has been good for cotton for now. could change, call it red. the same thing for louisiana, mary landrieu, could be in rough

shape in run-off there. out to alaska, very difficult to poll but very republican. again, democrats would love to win it but right now we'll put that one as red state. so those are states to make assumptions now, and see what that leaves you with. four states that are a lot closer right now. it also leaves you with republicans sitting at 49. now, keep in mine, republicans need to get to 51, magic number, if they want to achieve their goal, control the senate, they need 51, okay? this would love them at 49. if they win the stated that we just put up there. now, here's the thing. look at this map. two states should jump out. they don't, we'll use this john madden feature and circle them, one is georgia, delayed circle there, the second is kansas. now, these are two deeply red states, kansas is a state that has last voted for a democrat for the u.s. senate in the year 1932. you know georgia, it's not quite as republican as kansas, but

it's close. voted solidly for mitt romney, solidly for john mccain, bush. two states at the start of the year nobody thought we would be talking about at the end of october, particularly kansas. because of the weird stuff in kansas with democratic candidate out of the race, pat roberts facing this challenge from orman, orman being able to win, kansas suddenly in play. georgia, same thing with nunn and perdue. if those two races had not come in to play, right now we wouldn't be talking about kansas and georgia. they'd both be red. if both red now, well, i can show you. if georgia was red like we all thought it would be, if kansas was red like we'd all thought it would be, that's it, ball game over, 51 for the%s, 45 for democrats. doesn't matter what happens in iowa. let's take a close look at what's go on in georgia. click on that.

we have to do this first. still learning this thing. now click on georgia. you can see, average of all polls. look at this, the most amazing senate story of the last week. michelle nunn pulled ahead of david perdue, the republican of the average of all polls in georgia. has momentum. the big reason are comments that david perdue made about outsourcing. you see, georgia totally in play. again, take a look out in kansas we showed you earlier the newest poll there. again to remind you, greg orman, independent, ahead, barely, but in the average of polls against pat roberts, two states totally in play. gives democrats something to work with if they get orman over the top and get to caucus, get nunn over the top in georgia, it means they've got to do something with colorado and iowa, but it gives them a chance to win the senate with colorado, with iowa, some combination there, whereas if kansas and georgia were doing what we hall thought they'd do, colorado and iowa wouldn't matter, republicans would have the senate now.

instead, there's a ton of suts spence now and there's a ton of suspense on election night. end of the show. thanks for joining us. back next weekend. next, melissa harris pair rip see you next week on "up." alrig. let's share the news tomorrow. today we failrly busy. tomorrow we're booked solid. we close on the house tomorrow. i want one of these opened up. because tomorow we go live... it's a day full of promise. and often, that day arrives by train. big day today? even bigger one tomorrow. when csx trains move forward, so does the rest of the economy. csx. how tomorrow moves. you know how you look in the mirror and kind of go like this... it looks great but you can't walk around like this all day. where's the kitty kitty? kitty kitty! so covergirl and olay invented facelift effect firming makeup. it has an advanced olay firming complex that penetrates to plump skin with moisture... ...making skin look firm and smooth.

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