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of the most exciting and suspenseful midterm elections in decades. who will control the u.s. senate come january it's still a little better than a coin toss at this point. we have an ambitious goal this weekend to bring you live reports from every single one of the ten battleground states that are going to determine senate control. we're going to get to that all weekend on this show. president obama has been carrying out his own plan to hit as many battleground states as possible campaigning on behalf of democrats, of course, he'll be on the road all this weekend for more on that now we'll start with nbc's kristen welker who joins us from the north lawn of the white house. good morning, what can you tell us about the final campaign blitz that the president is taking off on this weekend? where is he going? what's he talking about? >> reporter: hey, steve, good morning. well, today's campaign stop tells you everything you need to know about where president obama fits into the democrats' larger fight to hold on to the senate. he's been mostly sitting on the sidelines, but today he's going to be campaigning for

congressman gary peters in michigan. this is the first and only senate candidate, steve, that president obama will be stumping for this election cycle. peters is expected to win and president obama handily won michigan back in 2012, so this is really a safe race for him to be stumping for. largely the president's been sitting on the sidelines going to reliably blue states and campaigning for gubernatorial candidates. places in recent days like wisconsin, maine, tomorrow he'll head to connecticut, he'll head to pennsylvania. of course, those are reliably blue states. the reason, steve, we've been talking about this for days, the president's approval rating in the 40s so you have a lot of candidates for senate in some of those tough battleground states who have been distancing themselves from president obama, of course, one of the big examples of that is in kentucky allison lundergren grimes wouldn't acknowledge who she voted for when asked if she voted for president obama. but the president has been picking up his campaign

schedule, so he is going -- making stops basically on a daily basis at this point. we have seen the first lady, though, steve, in some of those tough battleground states, she has been in iowa, she's has been in colorado. but what president obama has really been an asset for the democrats is in terms of fund raising, so he's been attending a lot of fund-raisers. he's also been doing things like making robo calls in states like atlanta, trying to rally the base and coalition that swept him to the white house in 2008 and in 2012 so trying to get african-american voters, women voters to head to the polls on tuesday. and just to put it into a mtz bit of context, steve, of course, he's not an anomaly. a lot of people refer to this as the six-year itch. if you go back and you look president george w. bush had a very comparable campaign schedule back then. so a little bit later on today, then, though president obama heads to michigan, and we'll be watching it here. >> all right, campaigning for the democratic candidate in michigan, the political equive lebt of pushing on an open door

he's ahead by about 20 points. >> reporter: that's right. >> kristen welker live from the white house, appreciate that. maybe you've already seen this but the president also has some strong economic news to tout in this final campaign weekend. gas prices are low again around $3 on average nationwide. stock markets are closing at record highs so it shouldn't be surprising in his final weekly address this morning before the campaign the last one before voters head to the polls president obama wants to tell voters about how far the economy has come on his watch. >> over the past 55 months our businesses have added 10.3 million new jobs. for the first time in six years the unemployment rate is below 6%. and on thursday we learned that over the past six months our economy has grown at its fastest pace since 2003. >> all right. joining me now to discuss this all the other weekend's big stories, big election preview edition of the show this weekend, we have sam stinein an msnbc contributor and joan walsh

and msnbc political analyst and editor at large for saloncom and robert george columnist for "the new york post." so, good economic -- i remember when $3 was high for gas, first. >> you're old. >> yeah. it was 99 cents when i was in college at the cheap place near me. >> we're all dating ourselves. >> it's great news to be down to 3 definitely. good, encouraging economic news, you know, the quarterly growth rate all of these sorts of things. anybody thing there's any kind of a late boost here for the democrats, getting some credit for this, anything like that taking shape here? >> i think it's late. i think it's unlikely but, you know, most of this news except for the gas under $3 this has been the news for quite a while and i really think it's unfortunate and kind of mystifying that the democrats have been so unable to craft a message about the rise of the economy. now, there's a good -- there's one good reason for that, and that is some of their voters are not feeling it. this has been an amazing economy for the top 1% for the mitt romney voters it's been a great, great economy.

and for democrats it's been -- it's been lagging. you've got states like georgia where, you know, michelle nunn is running on the economy not being good. in wisconsin marry burke is making it central to her campaign. so, it cuts both ways for democrats. still, i can't -- i can't believe that there hasn't been some way to have the soaring message we've done this much and we have more to do. >> this may sound a little bit odd but before we came on the three of us were talking -- we're talking about baseball. we're talking about the world series. >> yes, we were. >> that was confidential. >> yes, i know. but in a weird way this is almost the sabermetric economy because the way -- no -- >> that's a big word for 8:06. >> i apologize. but the way we've been calculating the economy in the old ways it was, you know, the unemployment level was this. the amount of jobs created was this. and that would be -- translate to a good economy.

now we calculate, you know, how large is the workforce, how many people have left the workforce and for the last few years the people don't see the economy impacting -- impacting them. and the -- so many people have left the economy the president doesn't get any credit for job creation. >> so, unemployment rate is bad and average basically. >> basically. and now you have to look at the president in terms of wins against replacements. >> i think objectively, you know, the president has a case to make which is that the country is objectively better off than when he took office. the problem is as joan illustrated it's very difficult to talk about that when a lot of people still feel like they're left behind. and that's a lot of democratic pollsters have talked about for six years now which is how do you message an improving economy if people feel you are talking too optimistically about it that you're out of touch? it's a really tough one. the president has been more

forceful in this election much more forceful in part because he has the statistics to back it up and but, again, i don't think people are feeling it. >> there's always something about midterm elections, when we talk about them now, we're always talking about, well, it's the republican voters that show up for midterm and the democratic voters that show up for presidential elections. there's a reason why the white house party basically never makes gains in midterm elections. we've seen it happen twice, you know, like, since world war ii. in 1994 when, you know, the republican revolution in '94, gingrich, 54 seats all this stuff. but remember the unemployment rate dropped un6%. we'd come out of a big recession in the early '90s. clinton got elected to fix the economy and it fell under 6% and the month before the election it was great economic news and the worst defeat for democrats since world war ii. it feels there's something with voters the nature of the midterm election the party in the white house they are in the mood to find fault with and to punish. >> the economy was turning on the republican side the economy was turning around in 2006 as

well. and george w. bush -- >> that one didn't last too long. >> yeah. >> primarily because of iraq there was a thumping that went there where, you know, and that's when -- and actually that's when democrats did turn out and republicans -- and republicans stayed home, so there is -- it has more to do with who's in the white house, you know, versus the -- >> well, no. that's true. the democrats to get control of the house and be in position to do stuff under obama it took -- >> step back for a second and look at the -- part of it's just the states, right? we're looking at elections in states that traditionally go republican and have more conservative voters. the toss-up states are purple-ish state. the fact that kansas is a toss-up state is remarkable in its own rights. and landscape does matter here as much as the economy or national and general trends. >> but i think -- but i think it's also interesting that -- well, that is true, that at the state level governors, whether republicans -- republican or

democrat, incumbents are in a lot of trouble. i mean, you've got hickenlooper in colorado. but scott in florida. corbett in pennsylvania. it's not -- yeah. yeah, walker's right in there. >> we have a list on the show of 14 of them last week. >> exactly. so, at the state level there's a lot more different factors that are going on than just ideological turnout. >> a lot to interpret wednesday morning. may not be over wednesday morning. >> very likely. the fact remains that even though the economy is better many people aren't feeling the effects, in red states and even in a lot of purple ones president obama remains deeply unpopular. one candidate in a red state. >> the south has not always been the friendliest place for african-americans, it's been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a very positive light as a leader. >> and that was democratic senator mary landrieu in an interview this week with chuck

todd and as you might expect her comments set off a firestorm. governor bobby jindal tweeted this senator land drew's comments are remarkably divisive, she appears to be living in a different century. a lot of attention being paid to these comments. a lot of outrage. i'll go to the most cynical interpretation, mary landrieu is fighting for her political life and if you look at how she got re-elected in 2008, parishes in louisiana, city of new orleans she got 100,000 vote plurality out of that and she's trying to energize and build up the turnout because the only thing that would be the only reasonable the president was having problems but it's simply true if you look at the way white democrats react to hillary clinton and barack obama there are differences between them. in 2008 i spent a lot of time explaining that it wasn't only racism behind the reaction to hillary clinton but there was

racism. and the way that she's being pilloried in the mainstream media i find it shocking and i find it kind of offensive. we all accept that it's okay to say this president is deeply unpopular. well, do you know what, he's deeply unpopular with one group of voters white voters. he's not deeply unpopular with latinos or african-americans or asian americans. >> you meant racist within the democrats who were voting for hillary over -- >> yes, i'm fine with saying racist. i don't think racism is only in the republican party. i'm fine with saying it. the word "racist" might be a little strong but there's some racial discomfort and cultural discomfort and for mary landrieu to be in trouble for simply saying that is one factor shows how poorly we talk about race in this country. >> i just look at it, a politician in the south, in the deep south, she has to know, whether, you know, right or wrong aside, she has to know what she's stepping in when she says something like that. >> but it's interesting actually, one of the strongest ads against mary landrieu right

now hais from a black state democrat who has accused her of not doing enough for african-americans in louisiana. the racial politics in louisiana are always -- are always complicated. landrieu is going to try to get the base out but i'm not quite sure if that particular appeal is going to necessarily energyize black voters towards her. >> what do you make of this? >> i would like to see these two continue to talk about it. >> be switzerland. >> if you look at it as sort of a cynical ploy to get the black vote out in new orleans i understand why republicans are upset because they feel they are being characterry tu rized to f her political ambitions. i don't think it's terribly crazy to say that. there is evidence that there is resentment towards the president based on the color of his skin.

it's silly to deny it. >> as a historical fact it's true. >> it hadn't been the friendliest place for african-americans. could you be any more diplomatic than that? i mean, my god. >> we got to squeeze a break in. the countdown is on. the polls are open in 30 states but in more states the polls will open in 72 hours. arning cah back ends here, at the purchase. but there's a new card in town. introducing the citi® double cash card. it lets you earn cash back when you buy and again as you pay. that's cash back twice. it's cash back with a side of cash back. the citi double cash card. the only card that lets you earn cash back twice on every purchase with 1% when you buy and 1% as you pay . with two ways to earn, it makes a lot of other cards seem one-sided. he told me there's a whole new way to treat sensitivity. he suggested i try new crest sensi-stop strips.

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all right. we're back. this saturday before the election some of the stories also making headlines this morning of news and politics colliding take the situation in maine. that's where the state is still trying to keep casey hickox the news who volunteered to treat ebola patients in west africa indoors at home this weekend. a judge ruled the state cannot force her to be quarantined in

her home. she can do whatever she wants this weekend and the path of reporters trailing henld her to document her every move. federal health officials say returning ebola medical workers should not be quarantined. according to a survey this week 80% of americans disagree with that assessment. they say that all returning medical workers should be quarantined. so interesting story we've seen play out this week, you know, she -- it was probably about halfway through this quarantine she's in her home in maine she says i'm refusing to stay here. i'm going to leave, you will have to get a court order. she's free to roam around. do you think it's a good thing, a bad thing? >> good for her. it's really forcing a conversation about how hard it is to get this disease and it's, you know, fighting back against the demagoguery of chris christie and andrew cuomo trying to make this into something it's not and trying to use fear and trying to look like the leaders because they're beating up on

this poor health worker. >> well, you know, at the same time even though, you know, the judge sided with her, he also said, you know, as a health -- as a health care professional she should be aware of what human nature is like in these kind of things and take that into account and i think that was appropriate language because, look, she may have been in the right and from the science she may have been correct as well, but the attitude that she has is i can do whatever i want. i can go wherever i want and there shouldn't be any kind of restrictions, i mean, i think for a disease that people are still getting educated about i think that was kind of inappropriate and she could have been -- she says that she was humbled. if she was actually humbled, i think she would, you know, stay a little bit closer to home and, you know, sure, go on with her life but rather than invite all of this attention i don't think -- >> i don't think it's fair to assume that's her attitude. >> i think it's manifest.

>> i can do whatever i want? i don't think that's right. i think she's cognizant of what this disease does. i think she's cognizant of how this disease is transmitted and she recognizes that she's asymptomatic at this point in time. she could change. i don't pretend this is an easy one-sided debate here. there are clearly arguments on each side and valid arguments on each side. if it were a more severe and contagious disease than ebola you would have to reconsider how you do quarantines possibly. but she is forcing the right conversation in this respect which is that we've had politicians sort of come in and tell doctors and nurses and medical professionals how they thud treat this disease, how they should deal with this disease and i think that's sort of -- i think we have it backwards. >> but part of the problem is that some of these health professionals particularly the cdc, the language on this has changed. has changed. >> absolutely right. >> when the health professionals are the ones saying, well, you

can't get it if you're just on a bus but if you have ebola, don't get on a bus. when you start getting these mixed message coming into the media, it's understandable. and that's from the -- >> that's a valid criticism. >> i think the idea of the incubation period on this is 21 days. and you certainly can salute her coming back and saying you've done -- you didn't have to go over there to help out and you did and that's an incredibly admirable thing but at the same time you don't have it right now. obviously you're not going to be transmitting anything right now you could theoretically, you could sometime in 21 days develop it. certainly the doctor here in new york didn't think he was about to get it. it came on after his three-mile run and it can come on pretty quickly. it seems maybe in an atmosphere where there are is so much uncertainty where the information has changed and the country when you look at polls like this is so worried about this, is it the worst thing in the world, all right, i'll spend three weeks at home. i'm not going to be in this bubble that they set up for me in newark. i'll be at home.

it's not the best thing in the world but when it's over i've set an example and it calmed people down a little bit. >> i think she's trying to set an example. i think she disagrees with her. i think she thinks her role is an important role and it is to say this is not contagious and we should not have these -- she's not running around kissing people. >> but if we expand it -- we have one case of somebody in a remote part of maine, okay, she's not really going to be around people anyway, but what happens when it's dozens of people going back and they're going to chicago, to new york, to los angeles, the example has been please, stay out all you want and if you feel sick then -- >> i think it's important to state what the cdc's own guidelines are and they've revised them as you noted. and the cdc guidelines are to recommend a voluntary quarantine. they say if you're exposed to the ebola virus and by that they mean if you've come into contact with someone with ebola and you didn't have a hazmat suit on, then you should be in your home. we're not going to force you, but you should be in your home and monitoring yourself. and, you know, i think they have

thought this through very hard and well because they want to respect someone's individual liberty but they also have obviously medical considerations. you know, i'm -- i guess i'm curious why politicians feel like that is way too stringent and i can under where they'stan are coming from, but what are the cdc guidelines and are they acceptable and for this woman she was not exposed in that sense. she was wearing a hazmat suit every time and not showing symptoms. >> this doctor in new york according to his own account had the same suit on the whole time -- >> knock on wood let's hope this doctor did in some respects the right thing which as soon as he saw that he was symptomatic had a fever, he isolated himself. got in touch with the right authorities went to the hospital. did all the things. it happens to be he was in new york city and it's very frightening and god forbid let's hope the disease doesn't spread further. but he followed protocols and we're losing touch with that. >> it's frightening and not frightening. he's great he was in new york

city because it has a wonderful public health infrastructure and other places not so much so i think -- >> quick thought? >> certainly the politicians did some, you know, did some grandstanding on it, but, look, they have to keep an eye on the public health if you are talking about big states like new york and new jersey, they want to err on the side of caution. there's nothing wrong with that. >> thanks to salon.com's joan walsh and sam stein and "new york post" robert george joining this morning after halloween. >> scary enough. >> still on the sugar rush. >> if you want more, it's right there. chuck todd is parking his rv right here and you can val date for pa validate for parking. i didn't know that. an unprecedented program that partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent, cutting edge research, and state of the art facilities. and you pay no taxes for ten years. from biotech in brooklyn, to next gen energy in binghamton,

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three days to go now until the big day election day which means candidates across the country are desperately wra lly up the miles as they barnstorm their states one final time

although it's not just candidates nbc's chuck todd has just finished up a blitz of his own. his meet the voters tour an rv trip through seven of the most pivotal battleground states up for grabs this upcoming tuesday. here he was in arkansas where the republicans have democratic senator mark prior on the ropes talking about that state's former first lady hillary clinton with a group of farmers. >> i think she's very capable. i don't know if she's electable but that said -- >> i understand. but do our kansans love her the same way they love bill? >> i would say perhaps not quite as much as they love bill because bill is a native son. >> bill just had that, you know, just something about him like we were talking about earlier the old uncle bill type thing, you know, just the old good old uncle that just knew how to talk to a crowd. >> all right. with only 72 hours to go now the rv is parked and here now to talk about where this election is headed we're joined from washington by chuck todd

moderator of "meet the press." thanks for taking a few minutes this morning. let me start, i do want to talk 2014 but i want to start on the sound bite we played from arkansas because this is one of the things we hear from sort of hillary clinton's crowd is that if she's the candidate in 2016 they look at a state like arkansas that bill clinton is from. they look at a couple of other states similar to it, these are states that obama never could compete in and hillary clinton could potentially from a general election, from that conversation and your visit to arkansas, what do you make of that logic? >> i don't know if i would say that that's true for arkansas. i know the clintons have a unique hold to arkansas for obvious reasons. but i do think it's true in maybe a couple other southern states. i think it might be true in a georgia, it might be true in maybe even in a texas. it feels like arkansas is going in another direction. if you look. let's see what happens tuesday night. but the fact that mike ross and

mark prior are having such trouble this year, you have an incredibly popular son in bill clinton that has basically been living in the state in the month of october, that's why i'll admit that hillary clinton can put arkansas in play but i think it has to do with where arkansas is moving. >> you finished up the trip now. you've been out there and we're always trying to figure out, you know, the talk in washington is always is there going to be a wave this year, is there not going to be a wave. but in terms of the general do you have any takeaways about the mood of theelecftelectorate? >> the best thing we were able to do is get an answer to why do you think the country is headed in the wrong direction. why do you disapprove of the president and why are you unhappy with the republican party and why are you unhappy with the democrat party? and the idea of dysfunction in washington there's sort of two -- there were two sort of dueling issues that i noticed on the road, right?

the frustration and dysfunction of washington. and, you know, i think people looked at it from their own political point of views of who they blame for that dysfunction but it was sort of a collective agreement that it's not working. and then the second is the uneven economic recovery. nothing was more striking to me than being in parts of rural georgia. and just, look, you look at an unemployment map there is still double digit of unemployment in nearly half the counties of georgia. but rural america in general when you are out there you see and get a feel as to why you guys were talking earlier, why aren't democrats getting the benefit of the doubt on the economic recovery, well, it's not hit rural america. that's why i think particularly in this map, right, which is a very rural map when you look at it, comparatively than to the battleground states of 2012. i think that's why in general you have democrats having to run on a bad economy because in those states the economy doesn't feel good. >> well, speaking of rural

america, i want to look at one particular state here you were in, iowa, one of the closest senate races. you had a chance to interview ernst and play a clip and ask you about it. >> very early when you were running for senate you took some very conservative positions, personhood came up on abortion, this agenda 21, you talked about impeachment. they walked them all back. why should voters now take away from that, you know, you took some of those positions and you say, do you know what, maybe i didn't mean to take that, i'm not there, it's a statement of principle and personalhood. what should voters take away from that? >> a lot of those issues weren't issues that were pushed by me. they were questions asked by media or by other members of certain groups. >> in this case it was conservative groups getting you to sign on to pledges. >> didn't necessarily sign on to pledges that dealt with those issues at all, but i am a pro-life candidate. i stand for life. when it comes to life -- and

that's something that has been shaped by my faith. but when it comes to that any changes made at the federal level will have to be a consensus between democrats and republicans. >> so you got into it there with these hot button, you know, issues there, personhood the agenda 21, impeachment, these are the sorts of things that democrats looked at joanie ernst and said we're going to make her the next fringe republican candidate who is unpalatable for the middle of the electoratelec why hasn't that tactic against her worked? >> i think part of it has to do with bruce braley. let's not forget, the reason iowa came into play he made the infamous remark that he made about chuck grassley at that fund-raiser with trial lawyers. and it just sort of -- it just sort of lit a fire under republicans nationally in particular. suddenly the national money groups decided they would play

in iowa. you know, they had the hardest time finding a candidate that they thought could go up against bruce braley. what i took away from her answer on that was simply, hey, i didn't know what i was doing as a candidate early. now i've learned my lesson on taking these positions. but, you know, it is interesting, steve, i thought that the democrats haven't figured out how to run on those issues because they've been talking about it for months. well, they're going to get her on this, they're going to get her on that. she did try to walk most of them back. the one thing she didn't walk back is personhood and there's a reason for it in iowa, there's a fine line in a midterm election, right? at the same time she was trying to sound conciliatory in her answer to me but she couldn't flip-flop the way cory gardner could get away with flip-flopping in colorado. you do that in iowa and you have a pro-life and an anti-abortion rights base there that might flip on you. >> final question here quickly tuesday night we have all the forecasting models, all the perlsages out there for all the

different states but when you look at that map, where do you think we're most likely to be surprised on tuesday night? >> hmm. i think -- it's an interesting question. look, i think the surprise could be how many incumbent governors end up losing. if this -- if this is less a republican wave and more of the i'm angry, i'm throwing people out wave. you know, i've seen -- i've seen polling that has butch otter in idaho under 40. i think we'll see more winners with less than 50% than we've seen in the modern era and i think that that's all -- both political parties ought to take that as a warning shot to them if that ends up being the result at the end of the day. >> chuck todd, moderator of "meet the press" back from meet the voters tour. thanks for a few minutes this morning. really appreciate that. >> you got it, steve. ten races that will decide the senate we'll take you to the ground in each and every one of them this weekend and the first two right after this. introducing synchrony financial.

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down to the final 72 hours before election day and the biggest question at stake who is going to control the senate. the answer to that is still a mystery that's because the battleground is so big this year. ten states right now still up in the air. ten races. don't really know who is going to win. ten races that are going to determine which party ends up controlling the senate, so this weekend we're going to be paying a visit to every single one of those ten battleground states. we have reporters on the ground in all of them. reporters who have been living and breathing these crucial races for months now. they're going to tell us exactly what's going on and exactly what we can expect on tuesday night. we're going to start right now in north carolina and new hampshire. where two democratic senators elected in 2008 are trying to fend off formidable republican challengers. jeanne shaheen is trying to hold off former massachusetts senator scott brown. brown has closed in on shaheen in recent weeks and now trails

her by just three points. more on that race in just a minute. and in north carolina senator kay hagan is up by fewer than two points in the polling average there over north carolina speaker of the house tom tillis. bill clinton rallied yesterday hagan needs to rally big margins if she's going to hold on to her seat. >> she's a big supporter of reforming the college loan law to lower the interest rates and let you pay them back as a fixed percentage of your income so we can stop the college dropout rate and not bankrupt you. her -- her opponent opposes the college loan reform. his party voted to increase interest rates on student loans. and he thinks we should get rid of the department of education. >> so will bill clinton kep kay

hagan hang on three days from now? joining us to scudiscuss is car robideou a correspondent for "the boston globe." we'll begin with loretta in north carolina. let me ask the question this way because at the start of this year at the start of had campaign a lot of people certainly looked at north carolina and said this is a state that, you know, president obama he did well in terms of getting his voters out in 2012 but he didn't well enough to win. he lost the state by two points to mitt romney. so in 2012 where democrats couldn't be more motivated they still fell short then. in 2014 in a midterm year like this it will be much better for republicans. much easier for a republican challenger to take out kay hagan and yet hagan has had a small but a stubborn lead that we're still seeing in the polls now in the weekend before. what accounts for that lead and how durable is it heading into election day? >> well, when you look at both

of these candidates you look at all of the polling on both of them, both kay hagan and tom tillis have high unfavorable marks. and hagan has been shaping the debate in north carolina and even the clip you just played from president clinton yesterday talking about education, that's really what we've been talking about here in north carolina which is more a state issue overall but it's something that she's gotten traction with. and, therefore, the voters are so mad at the state legislature here which is where tom tillis she's been able to use it and push it all the way now almost to november and hold on to this really tiny lead. >> it's such an interesting point. the story in north carolina for people that don't know it republicans got complete control of state government in that 2012 election. the governor, both houses of the legislature moved very aggressively on a very conservative agenda. do you look at this race and say in a way, just politically speaking, that was a gift to kay

hagan? >> well, she certainly has been tieing him to the legislature, that's what she's been doing this entire race. if you like what the legislature has done which according to polls most carolinians do not like what the legislature has been doing. if you like what the legislature has been doing then you'll vote for tom tillis. kay hagan is tieing him to this legislature and hoping that that's going to bring her the victory. >> such an interesting story in north carolina because in every state we're hearing republicans tie democrats to president obama but in north carolina as you hear kay hagan has the opportunity to say if you don't like the republicans in raleigh, either, he's tied to them. moving on to new hampshire we mentioned scott brown has been closing in on current new hampshire senator democrat jean shaheen the two faced off in their final debate on thursday night. where a kerfuffle over geography made headlines. >> senator brown what do you see going into the economy in sylvan county and what's going wrong

and please be specific? >> you are absolutely right geography plays a role. along the southern border we have more jobs and opportunity. infrastructure and other opportunities up north are difficult. >> we're talking about sullivan county. i think you were talking about the north country. so what do you see as going well or not? >> talking about any place past concord actually and the challenges of our state. >> it's west of concord and not north of concord, senator brown, what do you see is going well there and not going well? >> with respect i've answered the same. the challenges are the same in every county in our state. >> shaheen has maked every opportunity to make hay of brown's relocation to the state and his carpetbagger status. sullivan county is both west and north of concord and james pinnedal later apologized for the error will this moment or any other moment from the debate this week have an impact on this tight senate race? carol, i'll ask you about that and i should say i know james pindal, he's a stand-up guy and

it's unfortunate that it happened but that incident whatever you make of sort of the aftermath of it, it does have to do with the sort of sensitive issue of scott brown coming up from massachusetts and immediately turning around and running for the senate in new hampshire. are there signs up there that he's paying a price for being a quote-unquote carpetbagger or has not been an issue? >> it's certainly an issue in that here in new hampshire it's sort of a joke almost, you know, you're not from here or where are you from. and a lot of massachusetts people are relocating to new hampshire so we're used to that. i think what james was doing and i think that people from new hampshire understand the geographic layout there's very distinctive areas. it's a small state. west of concord is not considered north of concord and to get there you have to go south first to get there. so, i understand james' point. i think the greater point that jeanne shaheen's campaign jumped

right on is that scott brown has been here and he still actually acts like a tourist sometimes. he doesn't really understand new hampshire and that's why he's not the best choice for new hampshire voters. >> what i'm asking, though, have you seen and it's such a close race, shaheen ahead but by, you know, basically two to three points when you're polling this thing, so very close and this is one of them where the republicans are saying if he's behind two or three points now there will be this national wave on election night and take a two or three-point gap and turn it into a one or two-point victory for him. that's what republicans are saying. when you look at the numbers as close as it is, does it seem that anybody ends up caring about his residency? >> no. i don't think it really comes down to that. it's really -- it's really a personality clash i suppose at this point. it's like a game of battleship. jeanne shaheen is so well known. he's been governor. she's been senator. she's been here for a long time but chris brown brings a lot of

street cred, too. it's about what chuck was saying, chuck todd was saying with sort of voters are they angry, is there just some sense of exhaustion over the lack of change or inertia in the national government, at the national level, and will they make a vote based on that. we have tight races all across the top of the ticket here in every one including the governor's race which is also a surprise, so jeanne shaheen, she's got a new radio ad with bill clinton, she's got hillary coming on sunday. the gop has their get out the vote victory tour bus. they're on the move all weekend. they have their rain boots on and shaking hands and going into diners and meeting people where they're at. they are doing everything humanly possible to motivate the voters because that will count on tuesday if people go out and vote. at that point it's anybody's race. >> all right, new hampshire, of course, one of the first states,

always the first of the state in the primary and one of the first states on tuesday. my thanks to both of you for joining me to talk about these races. two down, eight to go this weekend. we'll get to them all. still ahead we're going to bring you up to speed on one of the stories we covered here last weekend and also going live to the mojave desert where richard branson's spacecraft exploded yesterday and meanwhile where politics is concerned it will be time to visit more of those ten battleground states. we'll get to all of that in time to get you out to brunch tomorrow. plus one of the most embattled governors in the country. at legalzoom you can take care of virtually all your important legal matters in just minutes. now it's quicker and easier for you to start your business, protect your family, and launch your dreams. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side.

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all right. we're back at the big board. we're going to be seeing a lot of this this weekend and on election night we want to look at one particular race that we'll be looking at closely on election night. could keep us up late on election night and it's something rather amazing or extraordinary whatever word you prefer is happening. i want to set it up by showing you this is one of the most endangered governors in america. pat quinn became governor if you remember when rod blagojevich who tried to sell barack obama's senate seat he was impeached as governor. pat quinn became governor and then ran for a full term in 2010 and he was endangered from the beginning. his own party's primary less than 10,000 votes. he barely gets the nomination. then he goes to the general election.

less than one percentage point barely beats the republicans, so pat quinn is just, you know, hanging on by the skin of his teeth and then let me see if this works, there we go, then in 2011 faced with a huge pension crisis in the state which a lot of governors faced he made a different decision. he decided to address the pension crisis by raising taxes and raised them 67% and this is what happened. 26% that's his approval rating at the end of 2012. 26%. so, he went from somebody who was already on shaky ground to somebody who is absolutely politically dead heading into 2014 and yet here we are, this is where the race stands pat quinn running in the average of polls a point ahead of his republican challenger bruce rahner, 45-44. the way quinn has done it rahner has a private equity past a lot of the same sort of tactics and the same sort of messages that president obama used against mitt romney in bane capital in 2012 that's what pat quinn has been using against bruce rahner and it has been pretty effective

so far. can pat quinn despite all that history actually somehow hold on to this? here's where it gets kind of amazing. let me showed you what the map looked like in illinois in 2010. this was pat quinn barely winning that election. these are the red republican counties and you see only a few blue counties on there. in fact, you only see four blue counties. this is cook county with chicago sort of set off. but that's all one county. cook county and then you've got three more down here. the rest of the state, 98 counties, were won by the republican in 2010. pat quinn became governor because he won four of them. and really he became governor because he won just one of them. cook county. and i want to show you what that means. go to this screen you can see. these are the four counties that pat quinn won in the state of illinois in 2010. he won one of them by 123 votes and won one by 163 votes and won one by just over 1,000 votes and then cook county, chicago, he won it by half a million votes,

500,000-vote plurality for pat quinn just out of cook county. he lost 98 counties. he barely won three and he won cook big and it was enough, just enough, to get him over the top and to make him governor by 32,000 votes. the rule in illinois politics for generations was if you wanted to win statewide in illinois you needed to win the suburban counties, the collar counties they call them outside of chicago. pat quinn breck those rules and he won in 2010 with huge numbers out of cook county and that's what it's shaping up as again if he's going to get re-elected. the question really becomes if pat quinn whens this thing we call him the governor of illinois but in a way you could see he'll be the governor of chicago. we'll be looking closely on tuesday night and more to get to this morning and including three states with the tightest governors' races in the country. ring ring! progresso! i can't believe i'm eating bacon and rich creamy cheese before my sister's wedding well it's only 100 calories, so you'll be ready for that dress uh-huh...

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all right. thanks for staying with us. lots of politics still to get to this morning now only three days out from the 2014 midterm elections including whether a key race could turn on a tall tale and put maybe a very tall tale of a fisherman, but first we want to turn to the question of what exactly happened yesterday when the virgin ga lattic passenger spacecraft exploded over the mojave desert during a test flight. one pilot was killed and one survived with serious injuries. virgin founder richard branson is on his way there this morning. the explosion is a setback to say the least for his plans to make space travel vabl to anyone at least anyone with $250,000 to spend on the flight. jacob rascone is already live for us in the mojave desert this morning.

can you give us the latest? >> reporter: yesterday they secured the crash site. this morning ntsb investigators will be here to look at what went wrong and also sir richard branson will be here with his team and to look at what kind of a setback this is for the program in general. friday's test flight was its first since january. it was meant to test a new fuel mixture. what was supposed to happen is schayes sh spaceshiptwo would separate and a rocket would propel it higher and then it would glide back to earth. but it was at the point of separation when it appears this was an explosion captured by some photographs. one pilot was able to parachute out in time and was airlifted badly injured. the other pilot did not make it out in time. the spaceshiptwo as we know was supposed to at one point carry paying passengers into suborbit more than 700 people have already bought a ticket at a quarter million dollars apiece. nbc news has an agreement to

document that inaugural flight with paying passengers. as for the future of the program, the ceo of virgin galactic said yesterday they owe it to the pilots flying yesterday to keep going and that is what they will do. of course, we'll be out here all day and bring you the latest. >> my thanks to jacob rascone live from the mojave desert. to politics where ebola, crying and an electric fan are all playing an unexpected roll in the midterm race. when people say anything could happen in a campaign this might be what they're talking about. three governors' races are up for grabs this weekend and they are potentially turning on dramatic and plain bizarre events. in massachusetts democrats are in danger of losing the om governorship to republican char i had baker but baker is now in hot water over a tearful story he told at this week's final debate and even he has now admitted that the story might not be totally accurate.

in florida democrats have enlisted a former republican to try to take out tea party governor rick scott a race so close that anything even a recent dustup over an electric fan during a debate could potentially make a difference in that race. and in maine combative tea party governor paul dupae lepage. and he had tough words for casey hickox. >> i don't want her within three feet of anybody. >> what happens if she does? is there any legal ramifications? >> let's put it this way. i am going to use the legal provisions to the fullest extent. that the law allows me. and i just hope that she recognizes that. >> a young ruled yesterday against lepage's effort to quarantine hickox in her home. still 80% of americans in a national poll agree with

governor lepage's positions. how is his stance going over with maine voters? here to answer that is a columnist for the "press herald" and garrett quinn from mass live news and in florida mark puto, a political righter for the "miami herald." the reason lepage is a national story he says and does a lot of controversial things. a lot of things that make people roll their eyes but i'm looking at this ebola issue. the nurse now in, you know, sort of remote northern maine who has come back and i'm looking at the polling on this. i haven't seen maine specific polling but national polling says basically 80% of the country agrees there should be some kind of quarantine here. is it one of the issues where lepage's bluntness is actually connecting with where people are? >> i think it is, steve, in some places. there's a diversity of opinion here on whether this woman should be kept in her home. of course, as you said, yesterday, the judge basically overruled governor lepage and

pretty severely limited what he can do here. but, you're right. lepage throughout this whole campaign has tried very hard to kind of tone it down and to not come across as combative as he's been for the past four years and has done a pretty good job doing that. i think what this has done is remind people of that side of him. the side that he was kind of trying to push off. and he even came out yesterday after she was effectively released from her house by the judge and now says that he doesn't trust her. so, you can push these things and you can push them too far and by demonizing and sort of making her the villain i think some people are starting to have more of a negative reaction to that. >> so, the issue that sort of the overarching issue for this entire campaign the question has been the presence of the third party candidate of elliott cutler, the independent and pauley page is governor in the first place because he only had to get 40% in 2010 because of elliott cutler's presence and in

2014 elliott cutler is running again but this week elliott cutler was lagging and held a press conference and he said this -- >> as we enter the closing days of this campaign i ask my supporters simply to vote their conscien conscience. some will vote for mitchell and some will vote for lepage and some will stick with me. i am not standing down. >> so, bill, we had him on this show actually at the start of the campaign and i asked him about this potential scenario and he basically did there what he told us he could do at the time he said if he didn't think he would win he would tell his supporters to vote their consciences and he said he gawrnty gawr guarantee there would not be a second term for paul lepage. do you think it will have an outcome on tuesday? >> i think it's had a tremendous effect not because of what elliott did, most of us thought that was going to be a

withdrawal or suspension of the campaign announcement. it did not happen. it left a lot of journalists very confused as to exactly what he was saying. but more significantly later that day independent senator angus king who had endorsed cutler in 2010 and given him quite a boost, had endorsed him again in august of this year announced late wednesday that he is basically withdrawing his endorsement of cutler and is now solidly behind the democrat. so, if you take all the events of that day in agrgregate i thik it shifted the momentum toward the democrat. and while elliott cutler is still campaigning his campaign is in effect over. >> on to massachusetts, my home state, where a tearful moment at the governor's debate earlier this week is still making headlines today. >> he said see those two kids up there and he pointed to the two boys on the boat and he said those are my sons and he said,

um, they were both spectacular football players in new bedford high school who were given college scholarships to go play football and i told them no. i said you're -- you're going to be fishermen. i was a fisherman. my brothers were fishermen. my father was a fisherman, you're going to be fishermen. and you hear those kinds of stories every day. >> republican gubernatorial candidate charlie baker and since he told that story during that debate on tuesday, it's turned out that some of the details don't necessarily add up. baker's campaign conceded the fishermen might not have been from new bedford and his sons might not have won scholarships and the encounter actually

happened five years ago. how will this strange sequence of events affect the race? charlie baker seemed to have opened up a small but real lead in this race. the controversy that this has generated, reporters going down to new bedford, trying to find this fisherman, reporting the story. saying, hey, maybe it doesn't add up. and is this having a late effect on the race? >> in some ways it is. i think yesterday, the day before actually on thursday, there were events scheduled around this issue. charlie baker was supposed to be endor endorsed by the mayor of gloucester. and martha coakley was supposed to have an event with the fishermen in gloucester. the big game changer has been the unfortunate passing of tom menino and that's gobbled up a tremendous amount of the news coverage of what probably would have been the coverage of this fisherman incident.

it's still making head ways and it's still getting coverage and noise. but menino has come onto the scene unexpectedly in this event and really stolen the news cycle. >> the mayor, you know, he'd been the mayor for 20 years and a larger-than-life figure in boston and politics. the funeral service i guess is going to be on monday the day before the election. joe biden will take part in that. ultimately tom menino would love it if we're talking about the politics of his death, i guess, ultimately, how do you see that impacting the race? >> the candidates both stopped campaigning on thursday, the day of his death, and charlie baker intended to not campaign on friday. martha coakley ended up having an extensive schedule actually, she campaigned in new bedford, had campaign events all over the south coast of the state. a big fishing area. charlie baker had one press conference yesterday to respond to martha coakley's, you know, event.

and it's a wild card. there's nothing to -- there's no real way to determine what his death will do to this race. and the thing, too, the fisherman story or the fisherman gaffe if you want to call it that, this sort of became a big part of the race. i never saw anything -- there's -- coakley -- the fisherman story was unexpected. charlie baker and martha coakley both had a problem where they had to present themselves, they had emotions, they had character and this was the first time you really saw it from either of them. >> this was really in many ways the first interesting thing to happen during the campaign. moving on to florida the last of the three we want to get to, the biggest governorship up for grabs this year it is the tightest race we've seen this year. mark caputo thinks may have the potential to be the 2000 presidential race. we remember that with hanging chads. tell me we'll not have to go through that all over again. >> i can't really tell you that.

we have updated our laws about recounts since 2000 obviously but reeling the polling heading into this race, this is a pick your poll election. if you happen to be a democrat, you'll want to look at the quinnipiac university poll showing charlie crist up by three. and if you are a republican you'll oddly want to look at a democratic poll from a firm called sea polling and design which showed rick scott was up by three. you put these two polls together and it's a tie. and also if you look at its poll and its internals and you look at the margins of error it's a tie. each has a plus that's counteracted by the other guy's plus, a minus counteracted by the other guy's minus. it's up for grabs and unclear. >> i hook at thlook at this rac the only one that robb could beat is north and the only candidate north could beat is probably robb. >> charlie crist is the three-time party switcher.

rick scott has never really been very comfortable in front of the camera and he headed this hospital company many years ago which had fraud in its background and the legacy of that has never quite gotten off of him. while he was running for office in 2010 it stuck with him and his favorables were never very high. >> good luck to all of you on tuesday. we'll be watching all of those states and many more. and our next guest correctly predicted all 33 senate races two years ago every single one of them. find out what he thinks will happen on tuesday night right after this. synchrony financial partners with over two hundred thousand businesses, from fashion retailers to healthcare providers, from jewelers to sporting good stores, to help their customers get what they want and need.

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as we've been saying this midterm election is one of the most suspenseful in years. so many races in play, so close

to the election, no one really knows what's going to happen in any of them. it's been a long time since there was this much uncertainty this close to a major election. this has been marked by a proliferation of election foreca forecasters. these are the numbers crunchers who pull together polling data and demographic information and they come up with formulas that they believe will give you a very good sense of how each race is likely to end up. one of these forecaster is princeton university's sam wong. he runs the princeton election consortium and in 2012 he really made a name for himself by correctly predicting all 33 senate races on the ballot that year. he went 33 for 33. now as we hit the homestretch of this campaign wong has one of the most favorable senate estimates for democrats out there now. if you can make sense of that chart we'll have him explain it to in a minute although the model still gives the edge to republicans. joining me what to watch for on election night and what he's

watching for is princeton's sam wong. the question on everybody's mind is at the end of the election when all the dust settles will the democrats control the senate still or will the republicans take control? what are the odds you're putting on that right now? >> right now as we just saw republicans are slightly favored with about a 55% probability. but that is -- the reason that my calculation differs from the other calculations i think the other calculations are underestimating the tremendous uncertainty. if you look right now there's five races that according to my calculation are within one percentage point. another one in alaska within two percentage points and so i would say that what i did in 2012 might actually be hard to replicate this year simply because midterm polls can be off by one to four points. >> you mention alaska there. i'm wondering how you are interpreting this. in alaska there was very little polling that takes place there at all. when the polling takes place it's usually by the firms not national firms and they don't

have great -- they don't have terrible reputations they just don't have reputations period and it's a far flung state. so when you look at the polling in alaska, how much of a grain of salt are you using there? >> a pretty large grain of salt. the problem with alaska it's a small state in terms of population but as you say it's far flung. i saw this interesting statistic that in one survey 43% of registered voters have been contaced by the begich campaign. it's a teeny, tiny kate. so many people have been contacted by pollsters. i think it's super hard to get a good sample in the state like that. it's basically a coin toss. i would say that sullivan seems to be up by a few points but it's well within the range of possibility for democrats to pull it out and my current feeling is we've got six coin tosses alaska plus five other states and historically the polls have been biased in one direction or the other as a group and so i think the even aggregation which is the magic bullet for people like me even aggregation might not help us on

tuesday. >> here's one thing you are saying to watch for and people at home can do this. you turn on the tv on tuesday night, you turn on msnbc hopefully and some of the early states we'll get results from are kentucky, kentucky reports early, new hampshire we talked about a little bit. we can put the polling averages up to give you a sense. right now the polk average in kentucky has mcconnell up 5 1/2 points on grimes. and shaheen is up by 4.4 over brown. that's where they are right now. what are you saying people should be looking for? >> right, i'm going to be watching those states not because i'm in that much suspense because i think mcconnell and -- >> shaheen. >> shaheen are favored. thank you. the thing to watch is the over/under. because they report early, there's a clue there might be a bias in the polls. if shaheen wins by only one point or if she even loses by some extreme statistical quirk what that tells us the polls may be biased when there's a bias it

can be nationwide. i think that will be really useful information early in the evening to get a clue. >> if shaheen with ever to lose in new hampshire -- >> that would be a bloodbath. >> democrats are going to be in a real bad mood at 8:30 if that happens. sam wang, thanks for joining us. really appreciate that. before join in the national media was talking about how the election was playing out in kansas we were talking about it as a game changer on this show. still ahead what the final days in kansas are looking like plus three more contentious battlegrounds. our tour continues. yoplait light is now better than ever. it still melts in your mouth. with 90 calories. and is now aspartame free. yoplait light. it is so good; it's better than ever.

nothinchocolate chip cookie.rite nestlé toll house made with real butter, eggs, and brown sugar for that scratch made taste. well now you can bake as few or as many as you please. frozen and ready to bake, new nestlé toll house frozen cookie dough is made with wholesome ingredients like the original recipe and lets you bake just the batch you want. so bake the world better, and turn any moment into a warm cookie moment. find them in the frozen aisle. nestlé. good food good life. all right. back at the big board here as we get ready for election night. three days away from now. we want to talk about a small state where there is a big story this year. it's the state of kansas. we've talked about it a lot on this show. you think of it as a red state. you think of 2014 as a strong year for republicans. the question being how strong will it be for republicans.

but then you look at a state like kansas and you say what the heck is going on here. let me try to put this in some perspective. this is what the vote total looked like in kansas 2012. no surprise you probably all remember it was not a battleground state mitt romney won easily. when you look at kansas you say how red is kansas not since lbj's landslide in 1964 has kansas voted for a democratic presidential candidate. not since 193282 years ago has kansas elected a democratic senator. since then every senate election in kansas has been won by republicans, so that's the kind of red state we're talking about. people will think of kansas at the start of the year it's 2014 it's a republican year it will only get redder this year and yet let's give you a tour of what's going on here. this is one you probably know the basic story. sam brownback former u.s. senator who became the governor in 2010 he wanted to sort of make kansas a tea party laboratory and some people thought he wanted to turn around and run for president in 2016 and he went back to kansas to do that. he got his tax cuts through and

look what's happened there's been a significant backlash in kansas and the average of polls puts his democratic challenger paul davis three points ahead of scott brown -- excuse my, sam brownback in this race, a three-point lead for the democrat. brownback certainly can still win this thing but he's getting the fight of his life from paul davis. and don't forget, one of the other things that sam brownback did as governor we always talk about the tax cuts being part of this thing, the other thing was there was a divide in the legislature in kansas between the sort of conservative wing that brownback embodies and the more established moderate wing. brownback's forces went to war with the moderates and they held primary challenges to a whole bunch of them in the 2012 legislative elections in kansas and they took out nine of them so there was basically a purge of the republican party that took place by brownback's forces in kansas. that's another reason why there are so many -- a lot of the support you see for the democrat are republicans disaffected because of that. but we say it's not just the

governor's race and also a race for the u.s. senate you recognize these guys greg orman is running and pat roberts is the longtime republican inc incumbe incumbent. the democratic candidate dropped out of the race when he realized he's getting in the way. this guy greg orman has a chance to take out pat roberts and if he can take out pat roberts then maybe he'll caucus with the democrats in washington. that is certainly what republicans fear. definitely what democrats hope. orman hasn't said anything but, you know, for good reason. he doesn't want to scare off any voters who might otherwise vote for him and greg orman is sitting there in the average of all polls ahead 44 to 43. you look at the two races we've already talked about and you're saying, well, maybe brownback can lose this thing. maybe pat roberts can lose this thing. maybe in the very republican year of 2014 two beg-name republicans could be losing in kansas and then it goes a step further than that, though. recognize this guy, chris cko ck has taken a national role on

issues like immigration when mitt romney made the reference to self-deportation that was something inspired by this man and his activism on this issue. secretary of state who has a very sort of polarizing image and reputation in kansas. he's being challenged, he's in the fight of his political life. look at this. this is not a polling average this is just one poll. it's dead even chris kobach and democratic challenger dead even and the possibility exists for democrats of a sweep in kansas. of taking out the governor and taking u.s. senate and the controversial secretary of state. this is the map of kansas. this is the 2012 presidential vote is what you're seeing here and needless to say base clul all red and romney. there is one county, though, that i think you got to pay close attention to and we'll be paying close attention to on election night. it's one of the red counties and it looks like any other sort of square on the board but it's very different. this is johnson county kansas.

25%, nearly 25%, of all the vote in the state is going to come out of this one county. this is a densely packed as kansas goes suburban county. what you have on the other side of this map you don't see is kansas city. kansas city, missouri, this is a sort of bedroom suburban county outside of kansas city. and these are voters who are -- these are republican voters. they voted 58-39 for mitt romney in 2012. they tend to vote republican. they generally, you know, they like their taxes low generally speaking. but the other thing that they like and the reason they live in johnson county which is sort of an affluent county, they like public schools. they like public education. these are affluent professionals who live in the suburbs and want to send their kids to good schools and want their kids going off to good colleges and the whole issue of sam brownback and tax cuts and cuts to public education and potentially declining quality of public schools that really hits home in a place like johnson county, kansas. these are the type of republicans who democrats think

they can win over. these are the type of republicans who maybe are upset with sam brownback over the tax issue maybe are upset with sam brownback of his purge -- purge from the republican party of the kind of republicans who live in johnson county. so, this is one. it was a 58-39 romney county in 2012. this is one if democrats can win it, can get very close on election night i think it will tell you a lot of what's happening throughout the rest of state of kansas. johnson county. that's the store of kansas and the brownback backlash and that's the story of the domes als hopes of not winning not just one, or two but three marquee races in one of the reddest states in america on what's supposed to be a very republican night. it's a fascinating story. we'll be coming back to it and looking at it closely on election night. wanted to explain it to you ahead of time. more to come, though, after this.

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is back in the united states this morning. he spent eight months in prison in mexico for crossing the border with loaded guns. a mexican judge ordered his immediate release without weighing in on the charges against him. still ahead at this hour we turn back to politics the question of what will happen after the election next week. howard dean, michael steele two former chairs of their national parties will be here. tomorrow. we can come back tomorrrow. and we promise to keep it that way. csx. how tomorrow moves. what a day. can't wait til tomorrow.

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totino's pizza rolls... ready so fast, ...it's scary! all right. it's time to continue our epic tour of the ten battlegrounds for the u.s. senate on this final weekend. many of them within or barely outside the margin of error. three incumbent democrats in this installment are in real danger of being eliminated come tuesday night. colorado, democrat mark udall once enjoyed a steady lead over republican congressman corey gardner but that lead has evaporated in the last month and democratic mark begich is lagging slightly behind in the polling average although a lot more uncertainty than in other

states and mark prior is just in big trouble. three senate democrats fighting for their political lives down to the wire and here to join us are three reporters on the ground in those states covering the races. they are eli stokeles mitt cal reporter for kdvr and alaska commons managing editor john arano in anchorage and the "arkansas times" from little rock. the recent polling not favorable for udall. the democratic argument is the polls missed in it in colorado in 2010 when michael bennet ended up winning at the wire there and they are saying the polls are missing it again this year. latino turnout and turnout of the core groups. do you buy the argument? >> i think we all hear who have watched the races for a long time look at the polls with a lot of skepticism because they have had a really hard time figuring out who is voting. and this year with the new

election law it's the first big election we've had where there are all mail ballots going to all the voters. there's election day registration you can register on election day. and there's even more uncertainty what the final vote will look like. i think the folks expect the vote to get over 2 million people here more than 2010. i think that democrats like where they are. republicans like where they are with just a few days to go. >> and the republicans have led out there. they are bragging about how they've done with the early vote at this point. >> yeah. but that's something i've seen -- that happens every year. the republicans they always vote and they always vote early. so, their vote comes in first. the first million votes that come in usually very good for republicans. democrats went into the 2010 race with 6%, 6-point voting registration advantage for republicans and democrats overcame that just on election day. so i think that's -- right now it's about nine points. i think that may come down a little bit over the next couple days over the weekend but democrats think they're right where they need to be and so do

republicans which is interesting. one of them's got to be right. and one of them's got to be wrong. >> unless it's a tie. john in anchorage, let me ask you about the race out there. nobody seems to have a good sense of how this stacks up right now. the assumption is just such a republican state in alaska, a good year for republicans so, therefore, begich is in trouble. we've seen a couple of polls in the last week that said, whoa, begich meet be doing a lot better than we realize. what do we need to know about the race? >> we're clueless, too. the thing about polling in alaska kind of similar to what the last person said, you can poll the same 50 people five minutes apart and they'll give you completely different results. both campaigns are really optimistic about their chances. in alaska as you said it's a really red state. republican registration we have about 500,000 registered voters. republicans outnumber democrats 2-1. but then again, the majority of all registered voters in alaska are independent, nonpartisan,

undeclared. the hidden truth in that is that it's still about a 2-1 conservative majority. senator begich is very wildly optimistic about his ground game. he's got field offices all over the state. every corner of the state with about 100 staffers manning them, doing door-to-door get out the vote along with $60 million of ad buy between the sullivan and the begich campaign. dan sullivan the gop candidate has mainly stuck to advertisements and hoping that is the message that carries the day relying on the conservative nature of voters in alaska. >> david ramsey down in arkansas for us. so, i mean, this is one a few months ago, we were saying pryor seems to be defying gravity and now we're looking at him saying it looks grim in the numbers. can you see a way for him to catch up with cotton at this point? >> i think cotton is the clear

favorite. based on the polling numbers. like in a lot of places, what you hear in arkansas is that the democrats have invested a lot, again, in the ground game. they really believe that they've put a lot of resources into get out the vote campaign that will help them make up some of that ground. we'll see. if there is a way out, i mean, most polls, there have been a few show cotton with a big lead, more of them it in the two to four-point range and democrats really believe they can make some of that up with turnout. you know, there were 130,000 new registered voters. democrats are claiming that the overwhelming majority of those are folks that they targeted but obviously too early to really know for sure whether that has any muster or whether that's just spin. >> david, quickly, so what happened? we were hearing nationally about this race, well, will the pryor mean anything?

again, he seemed to be ahead in the middle of the summer in the polls. is it people sort of tuned in and it's become a republican state or did something else happen down there? >> you know, i don't think that a whole lot shifted in terms of the campaign. i mean, basically from the get-go tom cotton was saying obama as much as he could. he said obama 154 times during the debate. that was true during the entire of the campaign. pryor has been focused on cotton's votes that might be unpopular in a state like arkansas. so, that dynamic hasn't really shifted. i think the fact of the matter is that from the get-go cotton had some real structural advantages in arkansas and i think that what we're going to find out is whether, you know, for a long time folks have been wondering when arkansas will make the shift to dead red and if that happens, then what you'll see is sort of undecided and so-called independent voters naturally kind of flocking to

the republicans. and, again, the democrats' hope here is turnout. you know, early voting is up 26% from what it was in -- at this time in 2010, you know, where that will break remains to be seen. it's heavy in pulasky county which is good news for the democrats but also in some republican-leaning counties. one thing to watch is some of the counties that actually vote republican in northwest arkansas, washington county, benton county, these are actually -- those were the second and third spots for obama votes in 2012. so, democrats are hoping they can kind of pull out some democratic voters even in republican-leaning areas. >> all right, thank you all for joining us. and it's three days from now. there's three months from now we're going to be talking about the new congress and the parties that will have to work together somehow after this election no matter who wins. howard dean, michael steele, the two former chairmen will both

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wins control of congress as a result of tuesday's election, democratic or republican, fundamental partisan dysfunction is probably going to continue to be the top item on the legislative agenda. if republicans end up in charge of both chambers of the house and the senate, they'll still have to contend with the democratic white house ready to veto their legislation, and if democrats retain control of the senate, they'll still face opposition in the house, like they have for the past few years. that's where the party breakdown has been for four years now. elections are viewed as times of great opportunity, a chance to wipe the slate clean, get a fresh start. so what are the ways in which the new congress, whatever the party makeup ends up being after tuesday, what are the ways it can achieve the fresh start that many americans are clambering

for and actually get anything done, is there any kind of way. here to help us figure it out. former republican national committee chairman, michael steele, former chairman howard dean, so governor dean, let me start with you. let's take this scenario for democrats on tuesday night, and let's say they lose the senate. they don't get back the house. they lose the senate. they still have the white house. to you, do you see any opportunities in the next two years to change anything we've been complaining about for the last four? >> i think it's unlikely, unfortunately. and here's why. and nobody has written about this. i'm surprised. let's suppose the republicans take over the senate. if they do they'll have done it by knocking off four of the five most conservative democrats. as it turns out, no conservative democrat as as conservative as a moderate republican. fewer democrats will be willing

to adhere to any modestly conservative viewpoint and there still exists the filibuster. so i don't see much hope. and mcconnell, given his view is his only job to get rid of president obama, and he will be the majority leader, i don't see much hope of getting anything done. with the republican majority. with the democratic majority, perhaps. we could go through that scenario in a bit. >> yeah, and let me ask you, michael steele about the other scenario, the dread scenario for your party. this is something a lot of people were talking about. the president himself. in 2012, he was basically saying it's going to take beating the republicans in the 2012 election. he said break the fever. he was saying it will bring them back to the table. they'll start negotiating, compromising. didn't really happen. but if republicans who right now, i mean, i'm listening to them. they're saying we think we got this thing. we've never been closer. if they fall short. if they're disappointed in what happens next week, does that have an effect on the party where it changes the pos hur?

>> yeah. the tuesday night turns out to be a big democratic night, and that means just holding onto the senate with a 50/50 majority if you will, with the vice president as the tie breaker. that will be a devastating blow to the gop, and you're already beginning to hear, steve with the conservative file, talk radio as well as activists about what the the agenda should be so whether they win or lose, the fact of the matter is there's a mobilization around certain issues that will be forefront going into the next congress. but if they lose, you're absolutely right. that will be an opportunity for ted cruz and ohs to really make the conservative case and argument for different strategy and a different approach going into 2016, which will have hunl

impact on gop politics. >> so that's interesting. that's the opposite from the democrat's standpoint. the opposite of their hopeful scenario, which is that the republicans lose and they're disappointed and theyry think the role that somebody like ted cruz plays in the party. so howard dean, when you look at the scenario, how do you see that playing out? if democrats were to hold onto this thing? >> one thing i think about politicians, for the most part, not ted cruz. but for the most part they're pragmatists and want to get reelected. people on both sides want to do that. when we lost three presidential elections in a row, we moderated and picked bill clinton who was a centrist because we couldn't win by running candidates predominantly on the left. i think the reverse is going to happen this time. if we hold onto the senate, i think actually the ted cruzs will go off their rocker. what else is new? a lot of republicans will realsz we just can't go on, you know,

appealing to -- our platform can't be i hate gays, i hate immigrants, i hate muslims. i hate everybody that's not a republican. that can't be anymore. i think they're going to position themselves to get something done. i think if you want to get something done in the country. the best thing is to reelect the majority in the senate. i think there's no percentage. >> let me clarify that it's not about hating people. number one. and number two, the likelihood of that scenario unfolding on tuesday is close to nil or none. so you're going to look at a republican senate majority. you're going to look at a republican house majority and a white house. and the question which no one seems to be asking is how does barack obama begin to navigate his west wing to deal with this new leadership? everyone is looking at the republicans to cooperate with the white house. what is the white house prepared to do in the face of this new front in this domestic agenda?

that's an important question. >> is this 1995 all over again? if the republicans get the senate, is it hey, we got the house. we got the senate. let's dare him to veto it. let's have a showdown. is that what happens? >> there will be some of that. but look at this, steve, and the governor knows this as well. even in the midst of getting impeached by republicans in the house, president clinton found a way to get welfare reform done, found a way to get a balanced budget done worked out with newt gingrich. so there is -- this is a ying and yang proposition. >> i got to cut you off. we're right up against the end of the hour. but i really appreciate you joining us. plenty of talk about with you guys i'm sure after tuesday as well. and that does it for today's edition of "up". join us tomorrow, sunday morning at 8:00, we'll continue our tour of every battleground state in the fight for control of the senate. all ten of them. we'll hit the next five tomorrow. and also special guests on

tomorrow show. hardball's chris matthews will join us onset live. coming up next, melissa harris-perry. you'll want to stick around for her. stick around tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. for "up". thanks for getting "up"ment with 90 calories. and is now aspartame free. yoplait light. it is so good; it's better than ever.

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with 1% when you buy and 1% as you pay . with two ways to earn, it makes a lot of other cards seem one-sided. . this morning my question, is scott walker fooling anybody in wisconsin? plus, president obama's stealth campaign and jeff chang on the colors of america. but first, it's the first saturday of november. happy sadie hawkins day! good morning. i'm melissa harris-perry. tonight in high schools across the country, teenagers will be dancing and socializing around the punch bowl in the beautifully awkward way they do at that age. so many things in high school culture have changed over the years. but