there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. is it slipping away for democrats? all right, good morning. thanks for getting us up with this sunday. two days to go. two days to go, 48 hours until election day. we reached the home stretch of the home stretch and comes with late-breaking signs that the senate may, may be slipping away from democrats. overnight the "des moines register" released its final poll. it shows the republican joni

ertnst ahead by seven points over bruce braley. the gold standard poll in iowa. presidential campaigns wait with bated breath and the polls that conducted it said "it looks like this race is decided, but at the same time, the average of all the polls in average has urged ahead by more than two points." that's factoring in this new poll. the importance of the outcome of the race in iowa for the battle of control of the senate is being driven home this morning by harry reid who said in a new interview if iowa does go to the republicans, he's out as his job as majority leader. what joni ernst would mean that mitch mcconnell would be the head of the senate. think what that would mean for our country. those are harry reid's words there. the democrat bruce braley and defining ad in the campaign, one

in which she boasted over a bill and clinton described that as both a positive and a negative. >> said she wanted to take herrer cutting skills to washington and make them squeal. that sounds good. but in order for it to work, you have to know the difference between pork and people. >> the first president bush is now weighing in with a last-minute endorsement of ernst said he's impressed by her dedication and service to the country. meanwhile, the current president, barack obama is hitting the campaign trail, as well, this weekend. gary peters and the "wall street journal" not alone this morning in noticing the first and only time the president has campaigned in a senate race. we'll be talking more in a little bit about reports of he's already planning when this election is over. for now democrats and obama working on turnout in the final days. aggressively targeting women.

hillary clinton highlighted minimum wage issues and in new hampshire, senator jean shhaheen. two parties in a statistical dead heat among women. 44% for republicans and 42% the democrats. just a month ago, those numbers favored the democrats by seven points. so, we've got lots to discuss this morning. for that, i'm joined by our panel. we have leslie sanchez, nbc news perry bacon jr. and norm orsteen. so, let's start in iowa and with this news out of iowa. it's one of those things we always say look at the average of all polls and the average of the polls shows ernst ahead and at the same time this is considered the gold standard poll and some people are looking at this and saying, republicans have been talking all year that wave will come at the last minute and this is what it looks like. that's what we see. how do you read it there? >> when you think of this poll

individually, really one would be surprising at this point. harry reid is right, if the democrats don't win iowa and colorado, both states where they're trailing right now, very hard to see how democrats keep control of the senate at that point. if they lose both of those stakes, it's hard to keep control of the senate. without winning iowa and colorado. >> as a republican, how are you feeling about this one right snow. >> very positive. joni showed a couple things. one, she didn't run as a women. that's an interesting difference. i'm working for the middle class and one of the first women from iowa to go to congress. what's interesting about her, she always did well with independents and you see that gap closing across the country and it's not on necessarily women's issues, but economic issues. >> so, norm, you've actually written about this race. we put the headline up here, you have the headline from your

column, conspiracy theories don't fit the narrative. so, you think joni ernst, getting a free pass here. >> she expressed some things that are wacky and extreme. not only flirting with gender 21. which is a theory that john birch but the u.n. will turn america into a countries where you can't keep your cars or your guns or leave your homes. she made comments about people being dependent on government that make mitt romney look like a socialist. if the government infringes on my rights, i'm going to use it. those things have been downplayed because the narrative this year is the republicans finally nominated main stream candidates. the main stream candidates adopted most of the tea party positions. she's run a very focusy, good

campaign outside of these positions. bruce braley has run a terrible campaign. a backlisash, i think, against midterm elections. put her in a position of being a favorite. we shouldn't think this is some centrist. >> is this a race, would we even be talking about this if he didn't have that video. he's talking to the trial lawyers and trying to raise money. you don't want a farmer from iowa and has that defined this campaign? >> you saw a lot of coverage of that and use it as an attack line, as well. the fact that brayley is nonincumbent. iowa you would think of a more liberal leaning state and a close state most of the time. and just like hagan did it and he was also hurt by that. both of sort of undefined. he did not have much name i.d.

outside of his district. she has run a better campaign than he did. >> maybe i'll ask you this, leslie. i saw an article yesterday by nate conan the "new york times" this is shaping up potentially as a pretty good day tuesday and they can win back the senate and that seems more likely than not at this point. when you look at all the issues raised about the future of the republican party and the 2012 election. any successes that they're poised for in 2014, have they addressed any of the core, underlying issues for instance nonwhite voters bringing them over the party. when you're winning the senate, winning in kentucky and georgia and have you addressed any of that? i wonder how do you look at it? the republican party, have you seen a party that changed in 2012 or an electorate that changed in 2012? >> i think there is a combination of both. ever since 2008 and propelling president obama and democrats and independents and i didn't

get what i bargain for. ever since that you saw it in 2012, mitt romney won more of the precincts than obama won, it has been moving to the right for the republicans. this is a final test of it. you have a better candidate running in middle class and empowering everybody campaign. she's closing the gap with women and didn't run on reproductive rights or women's issues. those were important things. if you want to talk about republicans, they put more boots on the ground and the convergence of technology and door-to-door canvassing and those anemic trends have been closed. >> if the republicans do take the senate this week, president obama is in michigan, is he pushing on an open door, politically speaking, as candidates go in by 20 points there. he has not been campaigning for these candidates and trying to keep himself on the back of it for as many races. what should democrats come up with this?

what is the lesson of the last two years for democrats? >> part of it depends if it's 51 seats or 54 seats. if you get that level of a wave, then democrats have to do some serious rethinking. but this has been largely an issueless campaign, steve. you know, we went into it, i think, with republicans believing it will all be about obama care. hardly about obama care. it's true that joni ernst ran on a campaign and mostly about send me to washington and it had little to do with, here's the agenda that we're going to push forward. i think for democrats recognizing that there may be a few things where republicans will work with them on, but largely going to have two more years of dysfunction and the question becomes not just what can the president do by executive order, but as you head towards 2016, how do you address the deep seeded public unease the public can't do anything

right? >> i do think the war on women issues which worked really well in 2010 and the party of todd akins appears to not have worked this time. it looks like that gap is much smaller. >> the republicans did a good job that they really trained their candidates early on when asked about abortion, think about how you talk about that. i am for contraception over the counter. they switched, instead of oppose a and tried to down that, as well. cory gardner avoided that attack pretty well in colorado. i think that issue around gender, i think, they handled better. they had better candidates who were smarter and more experienced. not as many ken bucks and -- >> those were the disasters of

2010 and 2012. by far. and i think to that point, yes t was economic issues. yes, they were better prepared candidates and they learned not to touch those lightning rod issues of immigration and reproductive rights and things that can get lost in the discussion. i think immigration, of course, is going to be one of the issues that comes back around. part of the interesting thing about picking candidates, even if they are women, women are seen as people who come in and work across the aisle and get things done. dick moore used to report on this years ago, this is one of the repeal of the nontraditional candidates, so to speak. hopefully they go in, work across the aisle and make something happen. >> so, let's see what happens on tuesday. obviously, the democrats right now sort of the underdogs on tuesday. who knows. either way, though, the government will go on for two years s until the next electio. what happens after tuesday?

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welcome back. now to the question of what happens after tuesday. peter baker writing in this morning's "new york times" the president is preparing for a democratic defeat. he and his aids are adjusting the policy agenda "anticipating a less friendly congress, republicans to expand trade, overall taxes and build roads and bridges." still, with or without partners on capitol hill, obama will continue to exercise his executive authority on climate change, immigration, gay rights and economic issues. reporter of "new york times" suggest the overhaul of immigration rules will happen in the days to come. norm, you started to set this up in the last, you're not

optimistic that, let's say, the republicans have control of the senate, you're not optimistic that there is any more compromise happening in the next two years than we had in the last two. >> i think we will probably see trade move forward much more readily under democrats. it's a slam dunk for republicans. much of the base doesn't care about the issue. if the president has a signing ceremony, there's a slimmer chance, i think, of a broad infrastructure bill. there is one thing we have to remember, steve. starting on wednesday, even before. we move right into presidential politics. it's an iowa-dominated by an extreme group in the caucuses and then move on through new hampshire and into the south and we're going to have three to five republican senators who will spend most of their time out there on the campaign trail, which is a problem for mcconnell getting 51 votes even. but it also means that it's going to pull the party further away from compromises. if i was obama on immigration.

perry and i were talking about this before we started. rather than move immediately towards a broad fix through executive power, which republicans basically not only drive them crazy, but give them an excuse to say we can't work with this guy. do something small and say we've been dealing with this issue for something for years and give the republicans until the end of january to pass a comprehensive bill and move on. put out an olive branch of sorts and then we're going to have very little done, regardless. >> how would something like that go over? how would a challenge like that go over? after 2012, everybody was saying the republicans recognize now the problem they have with latino voters, this is an issue. if they don't move on anything else, they'll move on immigration. here we are two years later, they didn't move on it and also if they win on tuesday, they win the senate on tuesday isn't the lesson the republican party takes out of this, we don't have to if we can still win. >> i don't want to confuse the two different things.

latinos aren't looking around, we need immigration reform and we can't decide which candidate and more so in terms of are they passing or working together, is there white hawk rhetoric on the issue of amnesty or how we talk about immigrants coming across the border. >> it seems like every time immigration comes up -- >> it's a hot issue. >> then the steve kings of the world come out. >> it's an issue and you'll see rand paul makes a movement on this area. there's a lot that we agree on in terms of border enforcement and what is their intent, are they paying taxes never get legalized in the system and the resources can be spent, what is the best way to match employers with labor. there is compromise on that. i think the president, it would not behoove the president to move forward and do executive border efforts sxit going to ignite republicans and they're going to spend a lot of time arguing about that and it will be a big issue.

some democrats argue that's a great thing. i don't have to take a position on it. another hotbed issue in 2016 and republicans will lose on that issue if they don't take a step forward. i think smaller increments whether they're looking at in-state tuition and trying to find a way to address with what the president did earlier and finding small things enforcement on the border and resources and that path to legalization, not necessarily citizenship. that is a place to start. >> harry, an argument in this argument according to "the times" that says, look, harry reid as the majority leader and president obama working closely with him. worried about getting democratic senators elected in key states and that's the main driving concern for him. if harry reid is no longer the main person he has to deal with in the senate, and no longer the majority leader, it gives obama more latitude to work with mcconal and to work with republicans. do you buy that at all? >> a little bit. what the core challenge is,

members of the house majority caucus and what president obama agree to. that number gets very close to zero very quickly. my sense is, what happens well on the way here, eventually, he's going to do this executive order on immigration and it will legalize between 1 and 4 million people and then all bipartisanship will be over that afternoon. >> you know, steve, the republican dream is that the house and senate republicans get together if they both have the majority and pass all kind of bills that obama has to veto or has to swallow. kevin mccarthy and the majority leader in the house has said we have to have a positive agenda and move forward and i'm talking about a republican in the senate and we'll be in sync. what we also know the house and senate are never in sync. when newt gingrich and bob dole took the reigns of the majority with bill clinton as president they were going to follow the same strategy within a couple

months gingrich was complaining far more trouble with dole in the senate and called dole the tax collector of the welfare state and that is not going to work well for the reasons that perry suggested. at the same time, the idea that barack obama and mitch mckoppel a are going to get together and work on a whole bunch of things does not make sense. mcconnell will try to protect his members the way harry reid did. remember next time, lots of vulnerable republicans up. many in blue states. that's the nature of the cycle. mcconnell said i'm going to restore the old senate with open amendments and the like. wait until the first bill comes up and the democrats try to use the same gotcha amendments from pennsylvania and states like that and you'll see the senate shut down. >> shoe is on the other foot. as we say, look, funny things can happen and the map favors republicans on the service right now, but if one or two of these states surprise you on tuesday night, which is not out of the

question how republicans blew it. a lot of suspense still on tuesday night. i want to thank harry bacon jr. and norm. a foregone conclusion that republicans will still control the chamber. a lot about the race for the house. still two very important numbers to keep an eye on. we'll go to the big board and tell you what they are and why, next. (boys screaming) totino's pizza rolls... ready so fast, ...it's scary!

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and new blind spot monitor and a 2014 top safety pick plus rating. cost of entry? a fortune. until now. hey sarah, new jetta? yup. can i check it out? maybe at halftime? introducing lots of new. the new volkswagen jetta. isn't it time for german engineering? we've talked an awful lot this year about the battle for control of the senate. a lot of suspense there. we don't know which party will end up on top after tuesday. there's also another battle in washington that is going to play out on tuesday and that is for control of the house. you haven't heard as much about it because the republicans are in very good shape to retain their majority, but there are two very important numbers to be looking at here. be pretty consquensht for the next two years. we want to take you through what

the house looks like. majority party, remembers it takes 218 to have majority in the house. you see at the bottom, vacant seats. the majority they start with. who is defending what and what is up for grabs on tuesday. we have a list here this is 30 in total. democratic held seats that are in danger of being won by the republicans on tuesday. some of these are seats the democrats are almost certainly going to lose on tuesday, a lot of these are seats that could go either way. but you have to understand, we want to make clear these are the seats that are in some danger and there are 30 of them. we want to take a look at 30 of them. this is new hampshire. this may be the most interesting congressional seat in america. this is the third time that these two candidates have faced off against each other. carol shea-porter she lost it to frank ginta, the republican in 2010 in a tea party backlash year. she won it back in 2012 and

president obama at the top of the ticket ii iic actually carr this ticket and in 2014 frank guinta is back running against her, again. the national shift to campaign basically thinking, hey, look, 2014, better year for republicans than 2012, this district will swing back. this district has been swinging all over the place. keep a close eye on this on tuesday night. battle of the house and something about the senate race between jean shaheen and scott brown. one of the most expensive congressional races we've seen nick rahall more than any other district in the country has moved farther to the republicans because of the issue of coal. if you went back to the year 2000, al gore carried this district. by 2012 when obama ran for

re-election, nick rahall in very serious danger of losing the seat. this was very interesting. this is a race where democrat jim matheson is retiring and it's an open seat. mitt romney got well over 60% of the vote in 2012. mia love, the first african-american republican woman ever elected to congress. obviously, she'll win this district. there has been some polling out, little suject people think in terms of methodology and some polling that suggests she will be in a much closer race than people realize. keep a close eye on this one on tuesday this is one republicans just much want to win. there are 30 democratic seats in pretty serious jeopardy here and there are 12 republican seats that we will put in that same category and that's why people keep saying the republican majority is eso saso safe.

some republicans who are in the most danger. lee terry. this is omaha, nebraska. this is the best democratic district in nebraska and the reason lee terry is in trouble is because during the government shutdown when they were temporarily out of jobs and paychecks and they asked lee terry, are you going to give your paycheck or give it up? i'm going to keep my paycheck, i can't afford this. he's in serious danger in the second district of nebraska. the eastern panhandle and this is steve sutherland. he has gotten into trouble for some things he said when he had a men-only fund-raiser. he was asked about it and made comments of it. this is the daughter of bob graham running against him. keep a close eye against this one on tuesday night. this is maybe the most interesting house race. michael grimm who is facing a 20-count federal indictment when he was running a restaurant in

new york and also fames for threatening to throw a reporter over a balcony earlier this year. domenic recchia. there was a poll out this week, put michael grimm ahead by 19 points and that caught a lot of people by surprise. he may survive this election and then faces a trial starting in early december. those are some races to keep an eye on in the house, again. the key is republicans are trying to get that majority as high as they can this year because anticipating a tough year in 2016. they want what they call a waveproof majority. democrats are looking to keep their losses to as small as they can because they think with hillary clinton on the top of the ticket in 2016 and maybe a better climate then if they can get close enough, be within striking distance this year and maybe they could have a wave in 2016 that could put them in good time. that is what to look for in the house on tuesday. checking with reporters on the ground in some of the tightest battle ground races.

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the plan was ambitious. we wanted to take you on the ground to all ten of the senate battleground states this weekend and we are right on track. yesterday we hit five of them and today we'll hit five more. in the next three we'll get to right now may be the three tightest races of all. starting in kansas. right now republican senator pat roberts is locked in a virtual tie with independent challenger greg orman. chris christie and bob dole joined roberts on the campaign trail in recent days and georgia. georgia republican businessmen david purdue enjoys a razor-thin edge over michelle nunn and georgia, of course, if no one gets 50% of the vote on tuesday, top two candidate will head to a runoff and that won't be held until january 6, 2015. both places democrats are trying

to pick off seats currently held by republicans. then the third seat, the third race we're going to take you to in just a minute. iowa. democrats are hoping to hold on to a seat that has been held by democrat tom harkin for 30 years. as we mentioned earlier, a new poll out from the des moines register. a gold standard poll that shows bruce braley trailing joni ernst by seven points. joining us to discuss the three nail biters on the ground casey hunt live in atlanta, nbc news capitol hill luke russert in des moines and kelly o'donnell in shawnee, kansas. in the crucial swing county of johnson county. we'll start with you casey hunt in georgia. the talk for democrat s for the last week, they think they have momentum here and they're talking about getting to 50% on election day and they don't want to deal with the runoff. how is it looking on the ground there? >> well, steve, as you say, this is the real test for whether or

not democrats can remake the electorate. this is a state that is changing in their favor and they have two really strong candidates in the senate and running for governor. michelle nunn and jason carter. for both of them, even republicans will say that michelle nunn is one of the strongest candidates on the map, bar none, this cycle. now, so far, having more success here than they had in past mid-term elections. 33% of voters in early balloting are african men that is the kind of number michelle nunn would need if she won this outright. both sides acknowledge that number will come down on election day. you'll see a higher percentage of white voters on election day, but that's really the number that you want to watch. if you're trying to figure out whether this will go to a runoff or whether nunn will pull this out or david purdue will win with 50%, that talally of african-american voters. >> the republicans are favored

and it seems to be basically the old turnout argument. is that your sense of it? >> republicans will say, hey, we're 8 for 8 in runoffs here in georgia. but i think you really have to think about how that will play out in context. if this is the senate seat that control of the senate hinges on, which very well may be the case, then i think that you're going to see democrats really fighting very hard down here to the point where it could be unpredictable. >> all right, let's move a little bit across the country to iowa. luke russert live on the ground there. overnight, this poll, "des moines register" puts joni ernst ahead by seven. if you do the average, still a closer race. but, obviously, shock waves from this poll. tell us what the reaction is to iowa and what the brayley campaign is saying now. >> the reaction from democrats, steve, a little dispay and worry. this is the gold standard of polling. if you dig into this poll, two things that are very alarming

for bruce braley. in his own, he's losing by three points. if he's the congressman there running for senate and he's behind with his own people, that's a problem. on the issue where democrats pull away from republicans on. does the person running care about me? joni ernst is beating bruce braley and that goes back to a few things. his comment about him being a simple farmer. that has resonated deeply here in this deep agriculture rich state. also this question about bruce braley and whether he sued his neighbor on chickens going into the yard. here in iowa, the gop has been successful and sort of casting him as this out of touch, washington lawyer against joni ernst who is a farmer, combat veteran. if she were to win, the first

female senator from iowa. this race has been rich with surrogates, steve. we had bill clinton in here yesterday doing two events for bruce braley and marco ruco rubd for democrats to win this and turn back those poll numbers you saw there up in the "des moines register" poll they have to bank on their early vote margin and they have to bank on turnout. they say center the suspeperior ground model and won every race here going back to 1998 and they know how to get out their voters. republicans say they're matching them with that sort of intensity. the question is, is the republican early votes which are bigger now than they were in 2010. newer voters or republicans voting more early now than they have in the past. that's the question. as of right now, i think it's safe to say the momentum is with ernst and braley faces an uphill battle. >> another, obviously, crucial

state we move further west now to kansas. and that's where kelly o'donnell is standing by for us. so, kelly, a unique race here because there is no democrat on the ballot. pat roberts has, he was trailing by a more significant margin about a month ago. he polled almost even and slightly behind in the average of all polls and in terms of roberts getting over the top and winning it, what does he need to do in the next two days? >> well, it is crucial. and to have some perspective, steve, i've been covering campaigns a long time, i have not been in kansas this close to election day since 1996 when i was with bob dole as he voted for himself for president and bob dole will be here today. the icon for kansas stumping for pat roberts. republican big names from across the country have tried to flood to zone to help pat roberts. this is a state that is easily republican and only sent republicans to the senate since the 1930s. frustration over washington, public fatigue over long-term

incumbents have made this a tougher road for pat roberts. when i talk to people here, they basically like him and grown tired of him and the cruteeg, too much of washington and not enough here. how do you overcome that? a space for a new kind of candidate, independent greg orman, self-made millionaire businessman and he has been saying what voters want to hear right now. he is on a breaking the gridlock tour this weekend trying to say to voters, you can change washington by not sending back someone who has been there in a long time. the hard part has been in talking with voters they're not sure about greg orman. both parties have got it wrong, but they're not entirely sure what kind of senator he would be. republicans say he is much closer to barack obama than most kansas voters are. so, the main argument here is to say if you want a republican senate and you want kansas to be a part of that story, send pat roberts back to washington. but you can't really get a sense of how this is going to play

because someone like orman doesn't have the party infrastructure. how do you mobilize the troops and get the vote out when you're an independent. that's something very interesting to watch unfold right here, steve. >> kelly o'donnell in kansas, luke russert in iowa, casey hunt in georgia. appreciate all of you joining us this morning. lots more news and politics ahead, including brand-new poll numbers in three key battleground states and chris matthews, too. stay with us. te-off and we're asking this sports town which blueberry greek yogurt is their champion. a tastes better. it's yoplait! i knew it! do you want to see which one yoplait greek beat? chobani. hoorah! yoplait greek wins again. take the taste-off for yourself. oral-b toothbrushes aree engineered al, with end rounded bristles so brushing doesn't scratch gums and angled perfectly, to remove 90% of plaque for a healthier smile. trust the brand more dentists and hygienists use. oral-b.

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see how stores start putting out the christmas merchandise before they start displaying the halloween candy. before christmas is over, we'll be faced with racks of valentin's day cards. the same comes when it comes to politics. still 48 hours away, despite that, the 2016 presidential election really has officially begun. first republican primary debate to be scheduled is now on the calendar. not only that, but all week long republican potential candidates have been showing sign, even

unofficial signs. jeb bush lashed out at hillary clinton and his son, george p. bush told reporter that his father would be running. jeb himself said this to our own casey hunt. >> can i ask you about what your son said this week? is that where your head is on running for president. >> when you have kids, you probably have the same frustration. you love them to death and they have their own opinions but i'll make up my mind like i said at the end of the year. >> you'll consider it over the holiday with your family. same as i always said, nothing new here. >> he boasted as the former vice presidential nominee, he could afford to wait. "i already know a lot of people in these key states well. they call me up so i don't feel the need to have to chum."

chris christie shouted down a heckler at a town hall allocated hurricane sandy and americans should expect the same chris christie, if you were elected president. >> what happened yesterday with the sandy protester? any down side to that politically? >> i don't think about it that way. i am who i am. my view has always been and i told people in new jersey this, you're getting it back. if you get respect, you get that back. if you don't get respect, i'll take you out on it. that's just the way it goes. i don't calculate these things politically. this is who i am and i think most people understand that. someone stands up and yelling and screaming and, you know, just not appropriate to do and i'm not going it sit there and be a heavy back. >> would you conduct yourself that way if you were running for president? >> i don't know if i'm running for president. that is speculation on speculation. i think the people in my state

like it and i have no apologies. >> joined now by republican strategist leslie sanchez and jessica taylor from the hill. chris christie has no idea if he's running for president in 2016. i'll tell you what, though, we've been talking about jeb bush and we'll start on jeb here maybe because i had the sense for a while maybe six months ago, a year ago that jeb bush wasn't that into the idea that maybe there was some reluctance there and hesitance. the fact that he reported it at the top of the show this morning that key senate race in iowa who came in with an endorsement late last night. george bush sr. in georgia. michelle nunn is running and ran the george bush sr. group and mentioning that to people. george bush sr. puts out a statement saying, stop saying that. i don't think george bush sr. at age 91 or whatever he's up to now is doing things like this unless jeb is running for president. >> i think jeb, if his last name

weren't bush he would be running and some of the bush fatigue seems to have faded. this is his shot. we talked about him in 2012 as a possible candidate, but his time is now and i think he's clearly giving more thought. the bush network is deep and, like you said, i think there is some strategy behind his father playing in iowa and what he is doing to help other candidates. you have seen him more active behind the scenes and he has rand paul or chris christie on the trail and he's helping strategically in places and i think even if he doesn't run, he wants to be a part of this. he can be a potential kingmaker and the republican establishment who is just so hungry for a candidate. they would love to see a jeb bush run. he can appeal to more centrist and hispanic voters and education reform, which certainly will hurt him in a republican primary. listen, i think if he makes it through a republican primary, it will be a tough general election. >> that issue of bush fatigue.

you go back to the end of the bush presidency and you can look at where the bush and republican party numbers are. how much of that exists within the republican party from the standpoint of, is this risking some kind of backlash with general election voters if we nominate another bush? >> i don't think so. it would be a big case if you had hillary clinton and groundhog day all over again. we have a legacy of liking family legacy. >> i guess what i'm saying is when clinton left office he's sitting at 65%, 70% in the polls and when clinton left office, he was sitting at 30. >> especially coming out of the obama presidency, people were ready for someone who was known to have points of education reform work across the aisle on these kind of empowerment issues of bringing people up the rung of the ladder. economic opportunity and building and reducing tax structures and balancing a budget. a lot of things that are very

important and that's one difference i would say for someone like obama as an outsider. an appeal of governors, again. if someone had kind of success on that level and kind of want to replicate nationally. >> so, norm, because you've been talking about your pessimism about where the republican party is going the next few years. i think back to george w. bush in the late '90 when republicans turned to him at that point and he pulled the party towards the middle. more federal ininvolvement, education and things like that. when people talk about jeb bush as a moderating force or chris christie as a moderating force, someone like that. do you see potential for someone at the presidential level to take leadership in the party and move it towards the middle and away from the right? >> one thing to keep in mind, steve, the results tuesday night or january 6th will make a difference here. if republicans win the senate, and let's say they win 52, 53 seats, the attitude in the party is going to be, boy, this hard right obstruction works great. >> yeah.

>> at the same time, i'm a skeptic about either bush or christie. with jeb bush you have somebody who has said that the people who came across the border undocumented, it was an act of love. that goes so against where the center of gravity is in the party now. he's the strongest supporter of the common core. in fact, enough to the right that bobby jindal, who is aiming at this nomination looked at where his party was going and went from being as strong and enthusiastic supporter of common core of jeb bush to being the most ardent opponent undercutting his own commissioner in the state and his own legislature. this is a guy that hasn't run for anything in 12 years. i'm a little bit of a skeptic. chris christie, america, sit down and shut up and if you're running on a record that in new jersey is actually a pretty crappy record. you know, he's raiding the

pension funds, which he said he wouldn't do. jobs compare to the rest of the country. you have these other problems that you have uncovered and cover ed as well as anybody els. and he's from new jersey. i am a skeptic that that's where the party is heading. now, if the republicans lose the senate, then you'll see it rethinking. >> he's from new jersey thing, woodrow wilson is spitting in his grave somewhere. there's a lot of questionmarks with christie. >> jessica and norm back a little bt in the next hour. three new polls and three key battleground states for the senate. the latest numbers for you. also coming up as promised, chris matthews will be here on set in his debut on offense, coming up, stay with us. sensitive bladder?

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all right, thanks for staying with us. we have been waiting for these all morning. we are the first to have them and finally bring them to you now, right now. brand-new polling data in three key senate battleground states. three journalists covering the three races. we'll get to all three of you in just a minute, first, unveil the numbers for you. we start in louisiana and this is an nbc marist poll that mary landrieu will come out on top in tuesday election. and republican rob maness. every candidate on the ballot, regardless of primary, the key there is if nobody actually gets the 50%, then there will be a runoff in louisiana on december 6th and that scenario, voters would favor either of landrieu's republican challengers. you see there both of them leading her in this poll. we move on then to kentucky and more straight forward race. mitch mcconnell appears to be

expanding his lead over allisis grimes. that is one-point higher than the eight-point lead that mcconnell held in the marist poll two months ago. finally in georgia, republican david purdue has a four-point lead over democrat michelle nunn. no candidate there hitting 50%, as you can see, a runoff, as well, in georgia. if nobody gets 50%, a libertarian there who is go gobbling up 3% or 4% right now. looking at kentucky, i'm not sure why, but you can see in georgia a very similar result in a runoff. that's the governor's race. the governor's race in georgia has nathan deal who is holder jason carter at bay. five-point lead there. a lot to get to in all of these races. joining me al cross, columnist

for "lewisville currier." jarvis, i'll start with you and that poll sums up the dilemma, the problem for mary landrieu in a nut shell. she looks well positioned to come out on top and people look at louisiana and look at the rightwood drift of louisiana and in a one-on-one race, how could she get over the top? is there a road map is there a path here to a victory for mary landrieu? >> that is the million dollar question, steve. she has had a tough go. every election she's been in with the one notable exception of 2008 when she was on the ballot with barack obama and she got, i think, 52% of the vote in 2008. that was her easiest goal that she's ever had. she had a tough, tough battle in 1996 when she won by about 5,000 votes and had a very tough battle in 2002 when she ran

against another new orleanian here and this is more of the norm. she has defied gravity for three, and now she has to see if she can defy gravity, again. all the energy in the south is going with republicans and she has to democrat, once again, she can be that outliar. so, it's the million dollar question. can she do it? i don't know if she can. but she has done it before. >> you look at new orleans itself, it looks like 100,000 vote. she just has to drive up the turnout in new orleans as much as possible. >> that's exactly how she overcame susie terrell. terrell folks thought they had it in the bag and it was a massive, late-day push that she had in 2002 that allowed her to

get over the hump. it was a massive get out the vote campaign that was late on election day, itself. so, new orleans is absolutely going to be critical, if she can motivate people to get out. the early voting returns were very encouraging here in new orleans. but they weren't as high in baton rouge where she also needs a strong showing. >> moving on to al cross in kentucky. so, al, these are, this new nbc marist number not good news for alison grimes. 50-41 in the new marist poll and i think back a few months to win this race that took shape after winning the primary. the polls were tighter and grimes was on offense. mcconnell seems a little bit vulnerab vulnerable. when you see numbers like this, "a" is that your sense where the race stands right now and, "b," is this grimes blowing an opportunity or mcconnell running

a campaign in the right year? >> not exactly any of those. i think that poll probably overstates the margin of it. this poll, likewise, overstated where i think the margin was earlier. but, i do sense something of a republican trend here. and it's not so much mcconnell running a great campaign, which he has, as usual, but the ancillary campaign run by his allies. about $20 million worth of ads supporting him and primarily attacking grimes. i think that she peaked around the first of august, around the picnic and since then we've seen her side outspent considerably by mcconnell and his allies and i believe that is the primary reason that she's fallen behind. the other reason is, she really hasn't made that good a case for

herself. you know, supposedly one of her great advantages was she had no voting record. she would be hard to attack. but she was an obama delegate and she got caught in the trap of whether she voted for obama and when you have been in office in a short time, people don't know that much about. that's the disadvantage of not having a record. she was pretty and it was easy to break through this with avalanche of attacks. >> jim galloway in georgia, number ten of our ten battleground we hit on the weekend. you're batting first. his new poll numbers, purdue ahead short of 50%. none, you know, pretty close behind him. again, i guess the question is, will there be a runoff? first of all, your sense of are we headed towards a runoff in georgia or do you think one of the candidates can get over 50 on tuesday? >> i think if you see a candidate get over 50 on tuesday, it will be governor

nathan deal. >> we were talking with casey hunt about this earlier in the show, your sense of how that would runoff would go. republicans look at the runoff in georgia, we're 8 for 8. >> we're 8 for 8, but the thing to keep in mind is those eight runoff runoffs in the general election. the first tuesday after thanksgiving and democrats have found it very hard to motivate their base. because of a federal lawsuit this senate runoff would be january 6th. nine weeks. now, depending on what the makeup of the senate chamber is, you could see a whole new campaign form itself in those nine weeks. in that sense, i think michelle nun would have something of an edge. >> that's really interesting and the key date there, january 6th

would be the runoff in georgia. january third right now is when the senate would reconvene. all eyes could be on georgia. al cross in kentucky, jim galloway in georgia. appreciate all of you getting up this morning. that completes our ten-state tour. this does not complete the show. when we come back next, we'll play hardball with chris matthews. he'll be here, right after this. for a crowd this big, your everyday dishes will only go so far. literally. you had to go deep into the cupboard. embarrassingly deep. can this mismatched mess be conquered... by a little bit of dish liquid? it can if it's dawn ultra. it's more concentrated... ...just one bottle has the grease cleaning power of two bottles of this bargain brand. here's to the over-extended family gathering. dawn, it's amazing what a drop can do.

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and cried out for help. from the surprised designers. who came to the rescue with a brilliant fix male designer: i love it narrator: which created thousands of new customers for the tennis shoes that got torture tested by teenagers. the internet of everything is changing manufacturing. is your network ready? all right. when you want to know what's happening in politics, the first place to turn, the best place to turn is to chris matthews. part of the nbc and msnbc families for two decades. host of the iconic hardball show since 1997 and i think it was called "politics with chris matthews" before that. he sometimes even allows me to sit in when he's away.

in short, very flattering. there's no one i would rather talk to ahead of the election. coast hosting msnbc coverage. chris matthews. >> i really love the way you handle those reporters, they know so much more than we know. they're on the ground and just listen. >> absolutely. so, what do you think of this. this morning the headline news out of iowa ernst ahead by seven points out there and the new msnb marist poll and a lot of people saying, you know, maybe these are signs that that wave we have been hearing about all year is forming, but how are you feeling right now? >> we could. you know, i think there is, i was just in new hampshire. i know a bit about that. good ground game and i would say over scott brown. by looking at the biggest search items in google, right up to the last 30 days where hillary is the big question they want to

ask about with shaheen. hillary will have some impact out there. delegation for senate and the house and governor. she could have some real impact. and then on the other side, the center fold that is net worth. know how richie is and they want to go back and look at the center fold. so, he's got sex appeal of that kind and gender appeal. it is fascinating. i would say she wins. she's a popular figure. the one year, i asked her, she wouldn't say it, but he is. >> here's the other thing, in massachusetts, the republicans on the verge of winning the republican race, that could have been scott brown. >> i think you have to think long term with him, steve. he wants a career in politics. if he gets into new hampshire, he could still do it. if he gets that seat, he could

have it for life. >> outside new hampshire then, how are you looking? >> the tillis race, i'm rooting for her. and i think i went to graduate school there and i have to tell you i think that tillus has negatives because of the state legislature. that state was built by modern education. building up the university of north carolina and fabulous school that it was. recent scandal there make that state as modern as it can be. they know it. >> if the republicans end up taking back the senate on tuesday night. >> everybody thinks they will. >> certainly that's what the polls are telling us. >> i would add 3.5 points to all the republican numbers. their energy and hatred of obama is a driving force. i'm not saying there is nothing

wrong with it, objectively, i don't agree with it. a real anger about it. i think people get angry when they get scared. you're afraid of getting mugged. you get scared. when you get scared, you get angry. that's where the country is right now. they're scared, is it the republican base and they're just turning out because they're scared. there's a sense of loss and control over government spending and too much taxes and imentgration out of control and isis. and the fact that these tough-guy governments are taking a tougher stand. is he chief executive? i don't think believe in the federal government, but make it work. the republican house, the

republican senate. so, what happens? >> well, the republicans could go, if they win big like they win nine-seat senate or ten, who knows. they may feel, this is their winning ticket. for the next two years just bash obama. you win the war, you play by the rules. you keep going. keep bashing him. they did this after the new deal was over in '46. they went to truman. they could go that route. they have a new power. the senate has the power of subpoenas. so, the investigating subcommittee is the only panel in either house has control over it. john mccain is going to be chair. john mccain is an incredible guy. if he spends the next two years investigating things, whatever he wants to investigate, a serious problem. they could go that route and just investigate. >> mccain investigating the obama administration. there's a headline. >> you have to study these things. nixon after he won the presidency with the big upset and that big landslide. middle of the night, i lost the subpoena power, again.

look at what happened with the iran contra with with reagan. the other party having the subpoena power. they don't have anything on obama. if he tries something big on immigration, they don't know how they're going to play that. i'm hoping they cut deals. real deals to be made on inf infrastructure and corporate tax reform. they could have a growth agenda that both parties agree to. >> and there have been a lot of things where the compromise is sitting there for the last few years and you get it there a little bit. what lesson does the republican party takes if it is successful tuesday night. you look at all the problems especially with this shrinking base reaching out to -- >> suppose you're a leader and i don't want to be crude to it but diminishing their natural base. why don't they cut a deal in

immigrati immigration. now, you have to ask, do the republicans want to stop businesses? are they willing to say -- >> but is it the pathway? >> no, you're talking like a liberal. that's not the answer. no, the country is concerned about out of hand immigration flow. they know there is always going to be some people to cross the border, they're not stupid. they don't want the natural flow coming across the border. stop the illegal hiring. it's in the senate bill. the senate bill is really tough. >> do you think if they did that then, do you think you could get republican support for an actual pathway to citizenship? >> if they're convinced we're going to start doing it by regular people coming in and going to be done the regular way. if they believe that's the future, then they'll compromise on the other because they don't want to deport 11 million people. that's posturing. but i tell you, still comes down to the fact that you want to deal with immigration. i always say this to my

progressive friends, don't ever vote for an immigration bill as long as you live unless you are proud of enforcing it. if that's not the bill you're not proud to enforce, don't do another joke like they did before. that's why the republicans don't trust them. they think the democrats will sign some bill and find a loophole in it and the democrats have more votes and they have been screwed again. >> i heard rush limbaugh say that a couple times. >> look what happened in 1996, they passed the immigration bill and took all the teeth out of it so all it had was the path to citizenship. it didn't have the immigration control on it. why would anybody support a bill like that, unless you're pandering. >> let me ask you quickly in the time we have left, president obama's legacy, he still has two years left. how much of his legacy do you think is set right now? >> well, historically, he'll look all right ten years from now. the next two years don't look good. i think he has a real problem the way he takes the office, the way he fills the office. only two role models for running

the country. chief of staff, strong chain of command and you know who the boss is, they could hire and fire down the line. they don't have little white house pip-squeaks and that kind of mickey mouse stuff going on right now. you have a boss that would know who did that and find out in a few minutes who did it, they would be out. obama doesn't do that. this whole thing with. >> brian: netanyahu and the president has 100 calls he could make that day. there are push buttons. i have him. kennedy used to do it before the push button. obama is neither. he neither has a strong structure of commands, right? good chief of staff or does he have the sense of, i want to talk to everybody. nothing gets controlled. people can feel that lack of control and that's what i think. i wrote it down here. loss of control. that's why the people are going to vote overwhelmingly against him this tuesday. >> chris matthews, next time,

tell us what you think maybe. >> what else are we doing here? >> stick around if you want. open invitation. >> i know what you're up to. >> chris co-hosting election night coverage on tuesday noig and waving to him from the big board. make sure to tune in on tuesday night. not just 2016 presidential election, there's the question of how the battle for the senate now will affect the battle for the senate in 2016. i'll be back at the big board, that's next. 's just you and you. the setting is perfect. you know what? plenty of guys have this issue, not just getting an erection, but keeping it. well, viagra helps guys with ed get and keep an erection. and you only take it when you need it. good to know, right? if ed is stopping what you started... ask you doctor about viagra. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain;

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♪ a 2.7 gigahertz turbo processor. kevlar fiber durability. turbo charge for up to 8 hours of battery in just 15 minutes. introducing droid turbo by motorola. all right. so, we've been talking all show about how there are late signs that maybe, maybe the final momentum, the final wave here is with republicans. republicans, of course, battling to get back control of the senate. something they haven't had since 2006. they are in better position now heading into this election than they have been in those eight years. still, certainly a chance that democrats can put the right combination together on tuesday night and hang on. but republicans in a very good position. but, there's something interesting here. if the republicans end up

winning the senate, probably by a small margin. we want to show you what that means going forward. look at the battle ground. this is something that you heard from democrats a lot and if they do lose a senate, you will hear from them. democrats saying, look, this is the battleground for 2014. this is a very unfavorable battleground for democrats. this is not a level playing field. we came into this year, 21 democratic held seats up, 15 republican held seats up. you can see them all on the map right here. democrats were already playing more defense than republicans were this year. then you start to look at some of the states that were up. for instance, montana. this isn't a state we talked about all year. baucus, very republican state in the open seat environment. republicans pretty much a shoo in there. same thing in west virginia. a lot of noise in south dakota a month ago and the republicans very well positioned there. three very red states that have been represented for a long time by democrats and now those seats have all come open because of retirements this year.

those are three almost automatic pickups. again, democratic incumbents defending seats in arkansas, louisiana, even north carolina. what do these states have in common? they all voted for mitt romney in 2012. some of them by extremely large margins. conversely, only one seat on this entire map, maine, right there. that a republican holds that president obama carried in 2012. that's the only republican defending an obama seat. this has not been what you would call a level playing field. that happens in politics. we have an uneven senate elections every two years. but if republicans, let's say republicans got the majority on tuesday, 51 seats, 52 seats, something like that. the thing democrats immediately begin talking about and republicans begin preparing for is what happens in 2016. this is what the senate map looks like in 2016. sort of a mirror image of what we have been looking at in 2014. a lot more friendly for democrats. so, what you see, democrats will

only be defending. this says nine, it should really count hawaii. so, democrats will probably be defending ten seats in 2016. again, this is 22. these are interim senators here, but this will be republican seats. so, republicans will be defending 24 seats in 2016. democrats only ten. think about that difference. it's 21-15 this year. 24-10. 24 republican seats. look at some of these republican seats that are up in 2016. you're talking about new hampshire a state that obama won twice. tuomy in pennsylvania and wisconsin, ron johnson, that's another state that went for obama twice. you have a number of states like that on the map, you even have a state like north carolina. you know, obama won it in 2008 and did not win it in 2012 and in the presidential year in 2016, say hillary clinton is the democratic candidate and she does better, well, that's how kay hagan, the current embattled democratic senator got elected

in the first place, it was in 2008, in that strong year for obama and she was running, as well. a lot more, there are going to be a lot more opportunities on the map in 2016 for democrats than there are for republicans. the opposite of what we've seen this year. i know it seems like a long way off, but it is something to keep in mind because democrats are saying, look, if we don't have the senate for the next two years, obviously, consequences, especially when it comes to nominations and things like this. but if we're only at, if the republicans are only at 51 or 52 or something like that, then we can get it back in 2016. we can get a hillary clinton wave at the top of the topic and we talked about the house earlier and the democrats have a scenario in their minds we're far out where they can get the white house in 2016 and get the senate back if they lose it and maybe, maybe the house, too, and maybe have one of those sort of two-year periods like they did with obama in 2008 and 2009. something we'll hear about after the election but one way to keep in context on what is going to

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>> who is coach bill schneider for the u.s. senate? >> my good friend pat roberts. pat is a good friend and a great friend of the state of kansas. i care about him a great deal. i think his track record speaks for itself. >> kansas state university football coach bill schneider endorsing pat roberts in kansas razor thin senate race this week. in kansas bill snider is a legend. created the kansas state football program out of nothing and now in contention for a national championship. he is far more popular in kansas than any politician. so, that endorsement is a coup for pat roberts. of course, at the same time, kansas state is a big public university with fans and donors who are both republicans and democrats. so, the school's president apparently asked the roberts'

campaign to pull the ad, which it didn't do. hardly the first sports figure to make a statement, curt schilling campaigned with john mccain when he ran for president in 2008 and another boston sports hero, bruin goalie tim thomas skipped his team's trip to the white house after winning the stanley cup in 2011, because of political differences with president obama. should sports figures think twice before wading into politics or do they have an obligation to use their platforms to speak their minds? joining me, host of gist pod cast, mike out in chicago. let me ask you first, the snider endorsement is so interesting to me because the interesting poll questions like this, polled his favorable, unfavorable score in kansas. i believe it was 84-1. no politician who is going to have a number like that. so, it seems to me like an endorsement from a respected sports figure like a bill snider

is going to matter more in election than a bob dole endorsement or something like that. >> the other way of looking at it, if pat roberts doesn't have the kindly senior citizen making a million dollar bald guy vote, orman is doing better than we thought. he is a very decent seeming man and he has apologized and said he didn't realize the ad would be used like that. it breaks through the normal type of endorsement. it's in the realm of politics, this might get the guy who is not even paying attention to the race who reads the sports page before the political page. so, i do think it can be a useful endorsement. >> it raises, as we saw from the university's reaction here. some sensitivities that this touched and my guess is what is behind this, maimer universities that rely on generous donations, probably a lot of republicans donating in kansas, but probably plenty of democrats, too. when a sports figure or

university figure goes into politics like that, it probably causes a negative reaction among some of those donors. >> that's true. but a lot of times the very big sports figures on campus and they're tenured professes and they're allowed to do what they want. one of the most interesting examples in north carolina where jean smith was coach of unc chapel hill and mike krzyzewski who went and koechd acoached ar. a private school difference there. but, yeah, there are sensitivities and i think snyder wanted to back away from it because of who he is. if he really wanted to press the issue, he probably would have been allowed to. >> i guess it's the other question, too. snyder spoke out in this campaign and examples of sports figures who get very political. at the same time, it seems from their own standpoint of having fan bases that are equally democratic and republican and in the marketing stuff that comes with that, it seems like i would imagine there is a lot of

hesitancy among most people in sports to speak out politically for that reason. >> i think, actually, not so evenly split. big time, especially football, is much more republican. but i think that what politicians do is they use sports to get popular and what sports people do is they use politics to get unpopular. but that might be okay. you know, a sports figure might say, look, it's so worth it to me. tim thomas, i don't care, i'm going to see obama in the white house. i remember when springsteen did campaigning in 2000. and he said, i built up a lot of credibility and now it's time to spend it. maybe sports figures should think of it that way, if they want to endorse and be so associated with a political figure, some fans aren't going to like it. and there are instances where sports figures kind of, you know, they don't know much more than anyone else, especially someone with a busy job who is not really paying attention. but a lot of interesting, subtle examples where, i remember al liter was on the michael

bloomberg band wagon early and that seemed weird but he stuck with him for years, he's a smart guy. politicians love it because if they can associate themselves with a winner or with a hero and politicians will always go for it. >> actually, i was covering new jersey politics when that was going on and i remember the al lighter talk that that kicked off in new jersey. bill bradley going from knicks to new york senate. my thanks to mike pesca getting up early. we really appreciate that. all weekend and all fall for that matter we're trying to answer one question. which party is going to win control of the senate? no real answers until tuesday, maybe until well after tuesday, but that is not going to keep us from trying to guess every one of the key senate races. the panel is out here, surprise guests, our prediction panel for the election all coming up tuesday, it's next. favorite chocolate chip cookie.

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ten battleground states, two hours, four hours of show this weekend, we hit every one of those ten states. we heard from candidates and analyzed the polls and we have new polls today and there is still one thing we don't know. still one thing we can't know and that's who is going to win all these races. we assembled a team to give their best predictions of who is going to merge victorious on tuesday night in each and every one of the races that is going to decide the senate, maybe a few others, too. almost game time. stay with us. from fashion retailers to healthcare providers, jewelers to sporting good stores, we provide financing solutions for all sorts of businesses. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. engage with us. you know your dunlike natural teeth.

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all right. back to predict the ten most crucial senate races. these are the ones that are going to decide control of the senate on tuesday at least we think so. we'll find out about them. here to do some prognosticating. we have liz winstead co-creator of "daily show" and jessica taylor, campaign editor for "the hill" and norm ornstein.

ladies, gentleman, thank you for being part of this. we have been talking about all these races this year. we got the battleground down to ten. it was 11 a week or two ago and we got ten left and i just want to go around each state ask each one of you what you think will happen tuesday night. we're going to start in arkansas. tom cotton, republican congressman, challenging the incumbent senator and, liz, we'll start with you. how do you see this race on tuesday night? >> sadly, i see cotton. all of a sudden we learn about tom cotton and i think his fear tactics are working. >> i think it's a testament that this has been so close, but tom cotton is going to win here. the red lean of the state, the way arkansas has moved will make it too much and he is going to be the next senator. >> norm? >> i think that is exactly right. just a year where the wind blowing in mark prior's face was so strong. a bad year for democrats. arkansas changing the way it has that it would be quite

remarkable if he pulled it out. >> mark pryor. you're 0 for 3 on the panel of predictions. i disagree, if i could. but that probably sounds right. we'll go to the next state here, louisiana. this one is a little, little tricky because of the potential for a runoff. so, you have a number of candidates in this race. mary landrieu, you have bill cassidy, likely to be the republican opponent if there goes to a runoff. liz, what do you see happening here? >> i see mary landrieu. she has a lot of money and name recognition and i think people don't want to change. i think they like her and the corporate democrats in louisiana like her. >> going with the landrieu family name there. jess? >> much like pryor, she kept it close because of her name. she'll finish it tough on election day, but the runoff is going to be too much for her to overcome in the red lien of the state and cassidy wins it in a runoff. >> norm? >> i think it's probably cassidy in a runoff.

a big asterisk for this one and looking ahead to georgia, too. one word, ferguson. likely to get the grand jury coming back with no indictment in november and the key to both of those states in the runoff is african-american turnout. that may generate enough turnout to change both of those races in a different direction. >> louisiana runoff, december 6th in north carolina, lizz. kay hagan trying to hold on against thom tillis. >> the early voting machine, i didn't have to ask about it, i saw it when i was driving everywhere. i'm going with hagan. >> this was maybe the toughest one for me to predict and i waivered back and forth. a very slight edge to hagan here. i think democrats have a great ground game and assisted by other progressive groups that have been building in this for years for over a year and i think that hagan has a very slight edge on election day. but this is going to be very, very close.

>> norm? >> i go with hagan who started out as one of the really vulnerable ones. but in a year where people don't like government much and there's been tribal politics and confrontational politics in north carolina, tom tillis was not the best candidate for republicans to put up, because he's the face of that confrontation. >> face of the republican state of 2020. jean shaheen and scott brown. lizz, is scott going to become a new hampshire senator? >> not even a little bit. new hampshire does not want anything to do with scott brown. it will seem close, but a wider margin on election night. >> shaheen is pulling away, do you agree with that? >> closer than democrats would like, but i think she ultimately pulls it out. but, if we do see it, much closer on election night or if somehow brown does pull the upset, i think we're looking at a really good night for republicans, but ultimately, the edge to shaheen. >> senator scott brown, again?

>> if he could count on writing votes for massachusetts, he'll do just fine. >> you think massachusetts wants to vote any more? >> he might get enough. but absent that, i don't think but this is one that we should watch on election night because it will tell us if the polls are tilting in one direction or another or pretty close on. that will help us, i think, to interpret what may happen in some of the races that aren't decided until later on. >> kentucky, mitch mcconnell's dream, we keep hearing about it. he's spent his life trying to become majority leader of the senate. he thinks the republicans get a majority this year, he needs to win his own seat in kentucky. will he do that? >> i think elwin but not a testament to him how close it is. especially with the last gap from grimes. it's resonating big time. i think mr. mcconnell should be way ahead all things considered and he's not. i don't think he's going to. >> this has been a bitter

expensive senate race. i think he's still going to win. doesn't seem like it changed much from where it began. he still has the edge, the gop lean of the state. he has been successful. tied to obama, especially in a state where coal and energy is so critical. >> norm, do you want to go on your own family feud style and say it will be a grimes upset? >> no, it's such a republican state. i did write in a column this week that if mitch mcconnell gets his life's goal of being majority leader, it won't be as wonderful as he thinks it is. >> he'll get the title, i guess. if nothing else. >> here's a state i think this might be the toughest one to predict on the board here. alaska. mark begich running for a second term. polling is sparse. nobody can interpret it. liz, what's going to happen in alaska? >> i think predictions are scary anyway and predicting alaska is i don't know who you think you are or i think i am, i'm going

with begich only because -- i don't know why. because i think he's the incumbent. i think he'll pull it out. they have a good ground game. if it snows, i don't know. >> 58% chance you're right. >> this is another one i went back and forth on. i think polling is hard here. we've seen it in the primary and ultimately again, if democrats ground game can save them, it will save them in north carolina and may save them here. this is a late close tough to count the votes. may not know for a couple of days if it is as close as they expect. >> it took two weeks in 2008 to declare a winner there. >> i know begich's father who died in a plane crash a long time ago. the son has political skills and understands the skills. he's also developed a very good turnout machine in a state where it's hard to deal with. even though i think a lot of

people say it's tilting republican. i give it to begich. colorado, mark udall, people thought it was in great shape. now he's fallen behind in the polls. who are you taking in colorado? >> i'm picking udall. the polls have been inconsistent. feels like they're underestimating the latino vote always. they look at gardner, they'll see an extremist. i think it's udall. >> the democrats keep saying they're off here. they're under stichlting the hispanic vote but republicans got good early votes. this is the first time they've had an all-male ballot. gardner has been ahead. he's orun one of the smartest campaigns. he's painted himself as a centrist. i think it goes to gardner. >> udall, gardner. break the tie, norm. >> i'm thinking udall even though "the new york times" prediction gives gardner a 72% chance of winning for whatever

that's worth. for a couple of reasons. i think the vote by mail may help the democrats in the end, push turnout for an unenthu unenthusiastic electorate. going into the contest the weekend before, it looked like he was going to lose. he had an impressive turnout which has become more impressive under udall. i wouldn't be surprised at all. >> moving on, iowa. began to poll this morning. i'm from minnesota and in farm states, we have friend of the farmer first slogan. if you want that, you can push through policy second. she came in front of the farmer people first and she's pushing things like trial lawyer and incumbent and things. >> i think it's ernst as well. she's made herself very farm girl soldier image. one thing that's telling is not only are democrats worried about

this, but worried about losing braille i's house district. they think he's a dragon that. that tells me how much he's struggling in the polls. >> >> this is a classic case where candidate quality matters. you have a republican candidate who performed really well and a democratic candidate who was awful. his mistakes resonated even more and so i think you would have gone into this saying democrats should hold this seat. it's very, very unlikely they will. >> three for ernst. we've got two left. short on time. we'll combine them here. georgia, first of all, michelle nunn and david perdue and kansas, roberts and or man. >> georgia, and oraman. >> and nunn. >> predicting there will be an election in georgia. i agree.

>> if nunn wins, it goes to a runoff. the dynamics favor perdue. we'll see if he can sort of sustain that. in kansas, i'm thinking pat roberts. i think that the republican lean of the state ends up helping him. he's made reach-outs to faith voters. very conservative. evangelicals in the state. that can be the deciding factor in that state. >> norm, georgia and kansas. >> i'm going with orman, there's a backlash against the conservative republicans under brownback, although it will be close. i think in a runoff perdue has the edge. again, ferguson could make a difference. >> an interesting wildcard. we got through them all. they're on the record. we'll have you back next week and see -- this tape will be destroyed as soon as the show is over. >> please. >> we didn't even get to predict some of the other exciting races like the providence mayor's race. anybody want to take buddy sans i in this thing? >> it's going to be an exciting election night. the fact that we're so undecided, it will make for

political junkies like ourselves, i'm excited about tuesday night. >> suspenseful election in a long time. norm oren stein, liz win stead, jessica taylor. thanks for getting up and getting along. thanks for joining. i'll be back on tuesday night with rachel maddow. up next, melissa harris-perry. stick around. dads take nyquil. the nighttime, sniffling, sneezing, coughing, aching, fever, best sleep with a cold, medicine.

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24 hours. zero heartburn. ring ring! progresso! i can't believe i'm eating bacon and rich creamy cheese before my sister's wedding well it's only 100 calories, so you'll be ready for that dress uh-huh... you don't love the dress? i love my sister... 40 flavors. 100 calories or less. this morning my question. can democrats translate an improved economy into election day wins? plus, shaming as campaign strategy? ohio's nina turner comes to nerdland. but first, all politics is local and for me, that means north carolina come on and raise up. good morning. i'm melissa harris-perry. the polls close in t