friends in tallahassee. >> i'll be answering all questions on a subway in times square. >> that does it for us. donny, will you please not come back? no, come back. >> it's if too early, it's "morning joe." we'll see you tomorrow. we apologize for everything. we take it all back. here's craig. i'm sorry. the final countdown. last minute stomping coast to coast and by president obama himself. his name isn't on the ballot but his shadow looms large as voters get set to decide who's in charge. and that could be kentucky senator mitch mcconnell, but his fate may hinge on whether one longtime colleague can hang on and whether louisiana and georgia go against the runoffs. also happening this hour, the supreme court considers a case steeped in middle east politics and whether one young boy's u.s. passport should say he was born

in jerusalem israel. just one day left until election day. it is monday, november 3rd, 2014. this is the "daily rundown." with less than 24 hours to go until polls open, candidates are trying to convince anyone left who's not yet sure. president obama made his final midterm stop last night at temple university in philadelphia. >> listen. ya'll have to vote. that's what this comes down to. you've got to vote. straight forward. i've got a simple message. we got to vote. >> across the country, a crowd of candidates in tight races and their surrogates are saying the same thing, show up. >> these last 48 hours, they are desperate. they're desperate. they're throwing every last bit of mud they possibly can. >> don't you get tired of watching all these negative ads?

there's a reason they buy them. they work. they just get inside your brain. >> kansas has become the battlegrou battleground. and they want to defeat pat roberts. we can't lose any republicans or it's going to be harder to get to the majority. >> a vote for greg orman is a vet for obama. >> his failed policies go by the name of michelle nunn. >> when you have someone voting so much with the president, it's difficult to say you're fighting for new hampshire. >> we don't need to impart a senator who is going to export or jobs. >> we are completely in a very tied race. it's all about who comes out and votes. >> message is clear, get out and vote. >> our ground game is whipping their ground game. >> the best organized ground game i've ever seen in a midterm. >> we've raised all the money we can raise. we bought all the tv time we can. and dropped all the mail pieces

we can. >> we'll be celebrate on election night with some indeed. >> in our new nbc news poll it is a deadlock. 46% say they prefer republican controlled congress. 45% say they want democrats in charge. in many of the battleground states that matter, the republican edge is bigger. in kentucky, senate republican leader mitch mcconnell leads democratic alison grimes by nine points. in georgia, republican david perdue's lead smaller, just four points ahead of democratic michelle nunn. if neither gets 50% of the vote, that race advances to a january runoff. perdue leads a hypothetical two-way runoff race by two points now. meanwhile, to the bayou, louisiana. landrieu leads republican cassidy by eight points in her three-way race. that race is also likely to go into overtime. cassidy has the edge in that

runoff, 50-45. let's kick it off today with chuck todd, moderator of "meet the press." always good to see you, sir. thanks for being with us. which states are we watching tomorrow night? which states are going to tell you whether republicans win control of the upper chamber? >> let me show you a little gadget we have here. call it a little what if map here. but it's a sliding state situation that we have here. it's a little bit easier to look at then the map itself. so here are ten states that we think are essentially still competitive. they're single digit races at this point. so if you go with where the republicans are leading right now, so go ahead and add kentucky to the republican column. republicans feel like they're ahead here in arkansas. you add that to the republican column. now they've got to find four races here. if we assume louisiana and georgia end up in runoffs, we've got the unknown kansas independent here. iowa and colorado, let's say you assume the polls are right in

both of these places and you give them to the republicans. suddenly, you see they're stuck at 49. this thing comes down to an incredibly late night maybe in alaska or we could find out early with new hampshire and north carolina. to me, that's what we'll know early on in the night. this is where polls close very early. if democrats hold serve in both states, then all of a sudden you see we could have a fascinating long election night. waiting for returns in alaska. the two runoff races. and then this unknown independent. what does he do if roberts loses. so this map is surprisingly complicated. even if it looks like republicans are going into tuesday with an advantage. >> the number of governors races also on the ballot. looking at another nail biter in florida? >> definitely in florida. arguably 18 of the 36 governors races are competitive single digit races now. unbelievable.

as much as an anti-incumbent atmosphere than anything. florida, your home state, connecticut, wisconsin, illinois, these are all going to be nail biter races. >> how much trouble is malloy in in connecticut? >> you look at the quinnipiac poll this morning and think, wow, did malloy get a good bump over the weekend? i feel like it's the exact same race we saw four years ago except maybe democratic turnout is a little bit better. remember, it's a big republican year four years ago and malloy hung on -- i think it took a couple of days for us to call that race. you got to think he feels a tiny bit better now given it's a rematch. i think a lot depends on what that third party candidate does. >> always good to see moderator of "meet the press." not planning on sleeping for 48 hours. we got him when he was fresh. let's turn to some more numbers. showing the backdrop behind the polls tomorrow. the president of course as you know remains wildly unpopular it his job ratings stuck at 42%.

67% of voters say they would like to see, quote, a great deal. or quite a bit of change in the direction that he's leading the country. voters say domestic issues are more important to them than crises like ebola deciding the issues. the top issue, the economy. republicans have a much bigger advantage. republicans also lead on which party can change how things can work in washington. but the republican party also continues to have a brand problem. just 29% say they view the gop positively. just 24% have a positive impression of congressional republicans. in a positive sign for democrats, interest levels in the election are up among core constituents. roughly equal percentage of democrats and republicans call themselves very interested in the midterms. but democrats should be worried

about this number. our survey projects that younger voters, voters between the ages of 18 and 29, will make up just 11% of the electorate. that's down big, from 19% in 2012. voters age 65 and older meanwhile expected to make up 24% of the electorate. up from 16% in 2012 and 21% in 2010. let's bring in our bipartisan polling team. democratic pollster peter hart. republican pollster bill mackinturf. let's start with how this thing is going to be different from 2010. how is this election going to be different? >> one difference is i think it's a great night for republicans tomorrow. nobody could match what happened in 2010. so what i say is if you beat your best opponent in football by two touchdowns winning by a field goal all of a sudden doesn't seem exciting. i think it's a republican night. but nobody can try to match what

happened in 2010. >> if we gave them three seats, we would be very happy. we would hold the united states. look, you said it and stated it well. as did chuck. a lot of moving pieces. it does come down to one thing. are people going to vote? who's going to vote? i think for the democrats, the biggest challenge is they have to be able to compete in what we call purple states where they've barely won in the past but they have to this time around. >> the chasm between young voters this time around and young voters back in 2010? >> if it turns out to be this way, that will be the major story of the night. that is, the turnout that just did not happen for the democrats. because the young people, there's a ten-point edge that goes on the democratic side. they don't come out to vote, democrats lose. >> bill, what's the -- what's the one warning sign from the

polling that you take away for your party? >> we're seeing an increase in democrat intensity. we have something called the generic vote. vote either republican or democrat. that's tied. going into 2010, that was republican by five points. so we're having a fair fight. i think the republican advantage is we're having a fair fight in not great places for democrats, which is in the core southern states. >> which states are we watching that will give us clues about whether the gop takes control of senate and whether there's this national wave we continue to talk about? >> will tell you -- i think it's going to be more of a tactical wave rather than a national wave. and what we're going to look at -- >> give me a difference between the two. >> well, a wave means you've changed the whole dynamic, of what's going on in congress. that's like 1974, 1994. this is going to be -- you're running on home cooking. you're doing well.

and you're red republican states. but essentially, the whole dynamic of the congress does not change. the seats may and the majority may. but more importantly is what do we do with those purple states? you've got to look at colorado. you've got to look at iowa. you've got to worry about new hampshire. you've got to look at north carolina. those are four states bill and i have talked about. those are states that are obviously going to be at the crux of how things turn out. the one other thing i would say is we're not going to know exactly on election night. this is going to be an overtime. don't jump to conclusions. >> talking about georgia and louisiana. same states for you, bill? >> i think chuck said it well in terms of north carolina. in georgia, we might see the republican drifting at or around 50. if that happens, all of a sudden, this expectation we may not know could be resolved. we might know by wednesday whether or not there's a republican senate. i think it depends on do republicans carry colorado.

there have been 26 different polsters in colorado. as one pollster said, not one of them have had the same number. it's a cautionary note for pollsters. that's why i'm very intrigued in what happens in that state. it's an all male ballot. it will be really fascinating. >> up next, two senate races two very different stories. we're live in iowa where republicans are feeling good about their chances picking up a senate seat. plus, this. >> people are just frustrated. >> they are, and some of that is at you. >> telling those stories to me, i take it to heart. they know me. they know i've been fighting for them. i have to remind them of that. >> also live to kansas where nbc's kelly o'donnell caught up with the man who may be the most vulnerable republican senator. first, though, a look ahead at today's planner. later this morning, attorney general eric holder and epa

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with less than 24 hours now before polls open, democrats are on the defense it most of the competitive senate races on the ballot tomorrow, but not all of them. in kansas, longtime senator pat roberts has seen his lead in the polls disappear and now finds himself in a dead heat with independent candidate greg orman. nbc's kelly o'donnell asked the senator if he felt pressured to win to lock up a republican majority in the senate. >> the victory can be one of the victories that can assure every majority in the senate change things, you know, get things

done, end the gridlock. as far as pressure on me, i've always taken every campaign very seriously. i'm a marine. we take the hill. regardless of the hill. >> a new fox poll likely voters in kansas shows roberts trailing orman by a point. nbc/merris polls shows him with the one-point lead. if republicans lose the seat in kansas, they have a good chance of gaining a seat in iowa. a new poll shows ernst leading braley by seven points among likely voters. organized a conference call with majority leader harry reid to try to rally iowa democrats behind braley. he said a victory by ernst could seal the deal for republicans. quote what joni ernst would mean coming to the united states senate is that mitch mcconnell would be the leader of the senate. someone who agrees with her on virtually everything. think what that would mean to

our country. we're watching both races closely. nbc's kelly o'donnell is in kansas. luke russert is in des moines, iowa. luke, bruce braley appears to be in pretty bad shape. not even winning his own district at this point i understand. has ernst pulled away? >> yeah, craig, on saturday night, a just real big heap of bad news for the braley campaign came out in the des moines register poll, showing him down here by seven. there are two things within that poll particularly alarming. you mentioned he's trailing his own congressional district. on the issue of who cares more about people like me, he also trails joni ernst. that's surprising because usually democrats most often win that issue against republicans. ernst leading in terms of medicare and social security. that's something bruce braley put a lot of money on. so that poll, while it's an outlier, is considered the gold standard here in iowa and it's particularly alarming. democrats are saying we can't

pay all that close attention to it. there's other polls that show it closer. even if you look at the strength in the ground game democrats have, which is supposed to be good for two or three points perhaps, the seven point margin in the des moines register poll, even if you put the democrats through the three points there, means ernst still wins by four. they're facing some stiff head winds. it does not help with the recent comment that tom harkin made which i think you'll ask me about as well. >> retiring senator tom harkin. it just caught my attention. he said, quote, there's sort of this sense. he's talking about ernst here. there's sort of this sense that, well, i hear so much about ernst. she's really attractive. and she sounds nice. i got to thinking about that. i don't care if she's as good looking as taylor swift or as nice as -- has there been any backlash on the ground with regard to that comment? >> ernst said this morning she

was offended. if her name was ernst, tom harkin never would have said the thing. will this sway voters? maybe a few. you and i are talking about this right now. hark harkin, who was trying to push braley over the top especially in eastern iowa campaigning with him, it kind of makes him a little bit of damaged goods now. it's just an enforced error that comes at awful time for the braley campaign ahead of the des moines register poll on saturday. >> it didn't seem extem rainious either. i know you talked to senator roberts. what's the sense you got from him? does he feel like this thing is really starting to slip away? >> actually, they believe they've closed it because greg orman was up by a substantial margin in polling earlier. they feel there has been a closing argument that favors them. what makes this so hard to

assess, craig, is that we're talking about craig orman, an independent. now, republicans say he's really a democrat when it comes to issues like abortion rights, immigration. he had voted for the president in 2000. donated money to democratic candidates including reid. greg orman has told me he is really upset with both parties and he's trying to create a new space for all of those voters who are also upset at washington. what roberts has tried to say is it's not about him, if voters have been tired of him and upset with him. it's about a republican majority in the senate and it's about issues that typically conservative kansans feel strongly about when it comes to immigration or abortion rights it he's trying to say, don't look at me if i'm been an imperfect servant, look at the bigger issue. we'll have to see if that works. no question greg orman has had appeal. his ads have been humorous. they've been -- they've been ubiquitous of course. people are curious about him. some have also said they're not

quite sure what kind of senator he would be because thhe won't y which party he will align with. >> still a wit of an enigma. thank you to both of you. moving from the senate to the house, democrats are facing extremely long odds in their battle to take seats away from speaker boehner and the republicans. right now, republicans have an edge of 233 seats to 199 seats. there are three vacancies. two democrat, one republican. in order to gain control, republicans will have to net 17 seats. here's why that's such a long shot. back in 2012, democrats netted just eight seats, less than half the number they need this time. going into that election, they had a two-point edge on the jen neitheric ballot. they trail republicans by a point now. they are also helped by president obama's favorable ratings back then and their own ratings as well in 2012. both of them were in positive territo

territory. today, approval rating under water by seven points. president obama's under water by ten. new york democratic congressman steve israel, also chairman of the democratic congressional campaign committee it congressman israel, always good to see you. in your heart of hearts on this election eve, in your heart of hearts, do you honestly believe democrats can win control of the lower chamber tomorrow? >> oh, it's very, very tough. look, the average loss for the president's party in a second midterm is 29 seats. even ronald reagan at the height of his popularity, he lost five seats. so history is pretty tough. here's the deal, here's what's going on. the pundits look at history and the pundits make their pronouncements. here's what i'm seeing in daily polls. unlike 2010, we have a very turbulent environment. but there are still 20 districts that could go either way in the next 24 hours. 20 districts. so anybody who tells you they know what's going to happen tomorrow night is literally the last person you should be

listening to. you still have 20 very close race. will we take the house? probably not. when you still have 20 districts fighting to the end, i think it's going to be a long night and an interesting night. >> you mentioned some polling. nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. this something that really caught our folks by surprise. republicans rating better on the question of which party can change washington. 25% to 23%. how have democrats lost the edge on that issue in particular? >> you know, i listen to your numbers. there are polls all over the place that say we win on middle class issues when it comes to whether a woman should be paid the same as a man for equal work, most voters agree with us. when it comes to stopping corporate tax loopholes -- >> about one party's ability to change washington, you're losing on that question. and it hasn't been the case for a few cycles now. >> look, here's what's

happening. you've got -- we win on those issues when we can talk about those issues. there's been kind of a perfect storm here. number one, you've got the coke brothers and karl rove and these right-wing stealth super pacs that will spend anything they have to distorting reality in order to maintain control of the house of representatives. we're looking at about $16 million in spending against our candidates just in the past two weeks. and so that is a very tough deal when you've got these groups like karl rove and the koch brothers who want to protect their right to pollute and spend whatever they want in order to do so. the second thing is, despite a very turbulent environment, in these 20 districts that are still at play, when you go into those districts and talk to voters, they still believe republicans are about protecting the special interests. democrats are about protecting the middle class. we have to continue to talk about that, particularly when it was the republicans who shut down the government. they've changed washington all

right. they've changed it so much, they've tried to shut it down last october. >> it seems as if perhaps voters have forgotten about that. >> there's no question many voters are forgotten about the republican shutdown. here's how we're doing it, craig. we've got 900 field staff across the country. the most unprecedented field campaign to remind voters. we've made 30 million voter contacts. 2 million voter contacts this past weekend alone. we've registered 80,000 new voters in our battleground districts. we're going to continue to take the argument on who's got your back to those voters precinct by precinct. >> congressman steve israel, thank you, good luck tomorrow. in just a few minutes, foreign policy will be at front and center of the supreme court as the justices take up what u.s. passports should say for american citizens born in jerusalem.

that's next. today's trivia question. who's the only speaker of the house. only speaker of the house ever elected president of the united states. first person to tweet the correct answer@daily rundown gets an on-air shoutout. don't cheat it the answer and more coming upp in three minutes. i was ready to serve. i'd just gotten married. i was right out of school. my family's all military. you don't know what to expect. then suddenly you're there... in another world. i did my job. you do your best. i remember the faces... how everything mattered... so much more. my buddies... my country... everything... and everyone i loved... back home. ♪ [ male announcer ] for all who've served and all who serve, we can never thank them enough. ♪ ["mony mony" by billy idole she cokicks in on car stereo]y". ♪don't stop now come on mony♪ ♪come on yeah ♪i say yeah ♪yeah ♪yeah

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the supreme court rarely wades into the area of foreign policy but that changes today, about 30 minutes from now. the high court takes up a case that goes to the heart of the mideast crisis. and the status of the holy city of jerusalem. traditionally people born in jerusalem just have the city's name listed on the u.s. passports since it's claimed by israelis and palestinians. a lawsuit by the family of a young american citizen born in the holy city wants that to change. pete williams is nbc's justice

correspondent. he joins me now with the story. what exactly is the court being asked to decide and what impact could it have on u.s. policy? >> the latter question, i have no idea. the former question is the constitutionality the law passed by congress in 2002 that said if someone is -- someone is an american citizen, born in jerusalem and wants the passport to say israel, than it must say israel. that's the issue here. a boy born of american parents in jerusalem. all his passports says is jerusalem. the lawyers for the family say this is a perfectly good law because congress is the one that decides what goes on passports. after all, it regulates commerce between nations and it also governs naturalization. there's the passport authority, the obama administration says no, no, no, it's the president who makes these ultimate decisions. it's the executive branch. he's the one the constitution says who receives foreign ambassadors. he recognizes countries. as you can tell, from those arguments, the constitution is not clear about this issue. who gets to decide what a

passport says? now, you got to the foreign policy question. the obama administration says this is the third rail of middle eastern relations. no president since harry truman has ever made a decision about where jerusalem belongs. is it the palestinians, is it israel, and now is not the time to make that decision. >> pete williams who did tackle the foreign policy question at the end there, thank you, pete. six weeks, six weeks before winter officially arrives. but you would not know it in most of the country. an arctic blast slammed the east coast this weekend, bringing with it heavy snow, high winds and record lows as well. more than 100,000 homes and businesses in maine are without power this morning after more than 21 inches of snow fell on parts of that state. officials say it is likely going to take several days to restore power to everyone in maine. much, much more ahead on "tdr" as we count down the hours to election day. tomorrow night, rachel maddow and chris matthews will anchor

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and aleve is proven to work better on pain than tylenol arthritis. so why am i still thinking about this? how are you? aleve, proven better on pain. turning back to politics now. president obama has not campaigned in a single southern state this cycle. our new poll shows why. the president's job rating sits at just 32% in kentucky. it is 39% in louisiana. he breaks 40%. if you want to understand why mcconnell is ahead in kentucky, look at this number, seven. that's the number of percentage points mcconnell leads democrat alison grimes by among women. remember, she was supposed to appeal to those voters in particular in the bluegrass states. mcconnell's also up 11 points among men.

if the georgia senate race goes on two more months, who will win in overtime? perdew leads in overtime. just 64% of likely voters say their are strongly committed to their candidate. that includes 74% of michelle nunn supporters and 58% of voters who say they plan to vote for perdue. in louisiana, senator landrieu down five points in a hypothetical runoff. but this number may be more troubling than this campaign. she trails republican bill cassidy by nearly 20 among independents. director of the maris poll, lee, thanks for being with me. first, to that point. we see democrats trailing in both of these runoffs. what does your polling tell us about whether they might be able to make up some ground in a few weeks? >> the races are still close. if we go to runoffs, that's not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination.

i think, you know, the republicans have the advantage, especially in louisiana, where it becomes just the top two. presumably landrieu and cassidy. and the more conservative numbers, those republicans for him and the independents for him are likely to join cassidy. that's why landrieu pretty much gets in the runoff. 45%. for this tuesday, 44%. she doesn't really pick up in the runoff. it all goes to cassidy if that's what the democrat is. democrats in these three states are not doing what they need to be doing. or so it appears for tuesday night. we've done 22 polls with nbc poll since the beginning and the conclusion is overall it's still close. but in these three states, the democrats are not getting it their way. >> to the gender point. this is really fascinating. alison grimes, trailing among women. landrieu leads among women, but she's down by about 20 points with men. and then in georgia, doesn't

appear to be much of a gender gap at all there in the peach state. have we made too much of this idea that boys will vote for boys and girls will vote for girls? >> in the beginning of this campaign, chuck todd said in order to win, these democrats had to carry women by double digits, ten points or more. as you correctly identify, they're not even carrying women at this point. has to do with issues. when it comes to jobs and the economy, the democrats have ceded that issue to the republicans in this campaign. your nbc news/"wall street journal" national poll shows that. we see that in these individual state polls. so when it comes to jobs, bread and butter issues, the republicans are favored. democrats are more into the gridlock issues. but unfortunately, that doesn't seem to have the same resonance with women as with men and so the democrats have squandered what may be their strong suit.

we're seeing it in other states too. the vanishing gender gap may be the big story of the election tomorrow night. >> i want to bring in "the washington post's" dan balls, cook political report's amy walter, "usa today's" susan page as well. dan, let me start with you, which states are we watching tomorrow night very closely to learn if this is going to be more like a 2010, a gop wave year or the year we had close senate races that broke in the party's favor? >> we talked about the southern states and the importance of those and they are, but if we're looking at whether this is a big, big year for the republicans, it's iowa and colorado and a sleeper in new hampshire. >> ground game, amy. how much does it matter, where might it matter the most? >> well, you know, there's a good saying that you can't win on turnout if you're losing on

message. this is what the problem is. for democrats right now. i think lee put it very succi t succinctly. if you're losing on who's doing the better job on the economy, motivating voters, even those part of your base, to get out is going to be very tough. they don't feel like it's that important for them to vote because they don't feel like it's going to make much of a difference. having even their own candidate from their own party win an election. that's been the biggest challenge for democrats all along. to have a president who is sinking not just, as you pointed out, in the overall approval ratings, but among the base voters, women, latinos, younger voters. that's a problem. >> that young voter number we talked about at the top of the hour, the chasm between young voters that are projected to show up tomorrow and young voters that showed up four years -- sure it's a midterm, but it would still seem to be that reading headlines come wednesday morning that would seem to be one of the headlines.

susan, talking about ground games here, let's go back down to the bayou. this is not of course senator landrieu's first competitive race. but the odds seem tough this time. is there any way she pulls this out on a first ballot? >> well, i guess at this point the day before the election you never want to say something is impossible just in case you turn out to be wrong. it looks like a pretty tough fight. she's won three senate elections before. two of them in runoff. so this is familiar territory for her. man, this is a tough time. louisiana has become a more republican state post-katrina. she's got a strong democrat candidate running against her. president obama's been a problem for her as he's been for some other red state democrats. he's an asset in some places. an asset in a place like pennsylvania where he's been. he's been in connecticut where there's a very close governor's race. when you talk about these vulnerable democratic senators in red and purple states, he has

been a problem for them. >> dan, let's talk about governors here really quickly. who's most vulnerable? >> we may not have enough time to talk about everybody who's vulnerable. it's an astonishingly interesting year in gubernatorial races. i can't remember a time in which we've seen as many incumbent governors who are on the brink. now, we'll see what happens tomorrow night. it may be a lot of them ultimately hang on. but there are a dozen or more very competitive gubernatorial races. ten or so incumbent governors who are at the brink. and so we'll see. you know, you can go through the list, whether it's wisconsin, kansas, connecticut, illinois. >> do you think brownback's done? how much trouble is he in in kansas? >> he's in real trouble, i don't know if he's done. >> susan, really quickly, i think this is your article that caught my attention. dynasties. i mean, there are a number of folks -- and i didn't realize this, the sheer number of people

who seem to be joining the family business this type around. >> a half dozen candidates who could win. some of them in uphill races but close enough. michelle nunn. jason carter. a kennedy running for a state legislative office. there is a george p. bush on the ballot in texas. he'd make history if he won that campaign for land commissioner because no bush has won his first political race in the past, even though two of them went on to be president. george p. bush may break that. >> amy, one thing we would all be surprised by when we awaken wednesday morning, what will it be? >> that i will still be alive on wednesday morning and not be passed out on the floor, that would be a thing to be surprised by. look, we're always going to look for -- everybody asks what the surprise is. i don't know the surprise because i'm waiting for it on election night. look, i think the expectation

now is it's either going to be one of those where it's a very close race or what we're surprised by how big -- especially like a house, how big of a wave it may be where republicans are picking up states in seats we haven't talked about. california, illinois, new york, places normally good for democrats. but in a climate like this, you're hearing a lot of fear from democrats that they could lose a lot more seats than we're talking about. >> a big thanks, i appreciate your time. still ahead here on "the daily rundown," some new clues about what went wrong during that virgin galactic test flight in the california desert. first though, there it is, the white house soup of the day. navy bean. navy bean. meat loaf sandwich. don't forget, live election twitter chats. joe and mika will be answering your questions about the election. you can tweet them using #msnbcvote. we'll be right back.

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federal investigators today may have a clue in the cause of the fatal crash. ntsb officials believe a component in the tail section of spaceship 2 they have unfurled prematurely as the spacecraft dissented during a flight. michael may have moved the component into an unlocked position. he was killed in the crash. meanwhile pilot peter managed to paur chute safely to the ground.

virgin chairman told matt lauer that further investigation is needed. >> the ntsb are leading the investigation and we go by exactly what they tell us. but, you know, if the deployment did take place early, obviously they're indicating that, you know, that may well be the cause. but we need them to examine that further. >> nbc jacob is in ma hcaliforn for us. it seems they're zeroing in on a cause? >> yeah. it's a big break in the investigation. it came overnight. very expected. the ntsb wants to be clear the new facts do not give us an official cause but in fact the new video in flight data do suggest mistakes on the part of the pilot and the machine.

what happened is this spacecraft has also feathers or tails they're called that are supposed to deploy when it reenters the earth's atmosphere. they deployed before the spacecraft got into space. it shows the pilot unlocking the tails. there's a second lever that has to be pulled to deploy the feathers. that was never pulled. what they're saying is they deployed by themselves but they are saying as well that the co-pilot unlocked them way too early. the ntsb will take several mo h months, they say before they come out with any findings. >> jacob, thank you. and that is going to do it. coming up next jose diaz-balart picks up our election coverage on this midterm monday. you'll have exclusive polling about the latino vote and how that vote in particular could

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find them in the cookie aisle. good morning. i'm jose dìas balart. our first focus midterm closing arguments. it's the final full day of campaigning before americans go to the polls. the high stakes election that could swing the power in the senate to the republicans. our new poll finds a near toss up in the senate. among likely voters republicans have a light 1 point edge over democrats when it comes to voter preference for controlled congress. for comparison republicans held a six point advantage just before the 2010 midterms when republicans took control of the house. when you drill down to the ten most competitive senate races, republicans still holding on to razor thin 1 point lead in their favor. new nbc polling shows republicans in the key

battleground states of kentucky, georgia, and louisiana have the advantage. giving republicans a path to taking back the senate. let's start with the strategy for both parties. angela rye is principal impact strategies. thank you for being with me. >> angela, do you know the polling momentum appears to be on the republican side? what can democrats do to prevent republican take over of the senate at this hour? >> at this hour, jose, we know it's all about the ground game and democrats typically have the advantage when it comes to getting in the polls. even going back to yesterday. i know, we're mostly talking about the senate but when you look at the gubernatorial race in florida right now it looks like charl crist has a little bt of a advantage. the other thing that is important for other voters and not justem