here's your breakfast sweetheart. >> it's the -- what they call the midterm elections and you can cut the indifference with a knife. >> midterm election day. or as people under 65 call it, why are all those old people lined up at the elementary school. >> candidates have said all that can be said. and walked back all that they can regret having said. >> very important, don't forget to head down to your local polling place and cancel out your dad's vote. very important. well, the music and graphics make it official. it's election day. >> i just had some chills. that's big. >> good morning, everybody. >> oh, my gosh. >> welcome to "morning joe". with us onset, john heilemann,

al hunt. >> is this big. >> 18 miles away from us. >> he's in another zip code, but not another area code. >> hello, al. >> in washington, we have political analyst eugene robins robinson. along with willie, joe and me. just before we get to the polls, and i say this real quick, if you could tell us real quick -- >> i can't do anything real quick. >> what is your gut? >> this is a race, this is a midterm election like few others. sort of like 1998. al will remember 1998 when republicans were supposed to have this huge night. and it just didn't happen. our majority in the house went down to four seats. but i don't want to be overly pessimistic about my party. because tonight may be a good night for the republican party.

but in sports terms, this really is like the yankees being up three games to nothing on the red sox in 2004. if you don't win tonight, i mean just game over. because look -- first of all, it's a mid year election. and mid year elections, off year elections, voters are whiter, older, more republican. so the republicans have that at their back. you add on top of that the fact that this is being fought in a red state america, tonight we're going to hear what red state america thinks of the past two years. and just look in kansas, for instance, this is a race too is too close to call. mitt romney worn by more than 22 percentage points. we've been talking about kentucky, arkansas. mitt romney won those by over 20 points each. we think those are safely in the republican side now, but it took a long tilg time 37.

alaska is still up for grabs. romney point by 17 points. georgia, romney won by 8 points. that is going to a runoff. romney even won north carolina. that's still up for grabs. there is a lot at stake for the republican party tonight. and again, republicans have a lot of reasons to be happy about f. it they win tonight and win control of the senate, but i'll tell you what, and you can talk to reince priebus, a lot of republicans, a lost night would be devastating to the part i. >> let's take a look at where we are right now. the white house by the way is bullish on the midterms predicting democrats will hold on to the senate even if plenty of other forecasts are saying otherwise. three major models give republicans high odds of taking over. the "washington post" election lab puts it at 96%. mitt romney spent the final day of the cycle campaigning with dan sullivan in alaska, who is

in a statistical tie with mark begich. other races appear to be tightening since its last poll less than a week ago. quinnipiac had colorado democrat mark udall closing the gap with cory gardner. and in iowa, bruce braley has pulled neck and neck with joni ernst. >> al hunt, three states, in iowa, in new hampshire, in colorado. tightening in all three states. two favoring democrats, one favoring republicans. for people that can see into a crystal ball and project that there a 96% chance that the republicans are going to like take over the senate, good for them. i mean the quinnipiac poll, in iowa, where it's a dead heat suggests that maybe that "des moines register" poll is sort of

an outlier. >> i would defend the des moines ron register pollster because she has a great track record. but that's margin of error. we're not sure exactly where they are. and what it really will probably come down to tonight to state the obvious is who shows up. but who has the ground game, who can deliver, where the passion, where the last minute, and if there is any momentum on either side last minute. i think there are at least seven or eight states totally up for grabs. >> and let's talk about governors records. florida is my home state, but i live in connecticut. both of those races, right, you've got two governors races where nobody knows which way it will break. that's how crazy this year is. and the bluest of states, in what is traditionally a red state, it's up for grabs. >> and wisconsin you can throw into the mix, too, where scott walker is fighting for his life. what happens tonight in wisconsin could have a big impact on national politics.

he's thinking about running for something larger perhaps. if he loses tonight, that goes by the wayside. the senate, i guess you have three locks. south dakota, montana, west virginia. so the remaining states that you pointed out there, republicans have to find three more basically. >> and you could probably put john heilemann, kentucky, and arkansas as two of those three. >> although kentucky is a hold. >> that's right. >> or colorado looking good, too. >> colorado looks very close. i think the only state that right now i think people are pretty confident about that republicans in addition to those three will pick up is arkansas. that's the one where republicans and democrats privately acknowledge mark pryor is probably gone. but the rest of the states are within the margin of error. louisiana race almost certain to go into overtime. georgia race almost certain to go into overtime. >> and those probabilily favor republicans in a runoff. but just probably.

i think the two states that a lot of people will be looking at tonight, iowa and colorado. that is one thing republicans look at and say here are two states that romney lost where we're fighting and we're looking pretty good. polls a week ago would have suggested these are republican states. now even those two states have tightened up. >> and in colorado, i think mark udall is probably feeling not bad today because that's a state where democrats really do have a high tech very experienced very good ground game. they will get their people out in colorado. and republicans had barry match that or they will lose colorado if this race is that type.match that or they will lose colorado if this race is that type. iowa, it surprise me that's neck and neck. but most of these races have been within the margin of error throughout with an asterisk because they have generally given republicans optimism.

generally have the republican a little bit ahead. that's got to mean something. so it's still weighted in favor of the republicans, but it will be a long night. >> it is. a win for joni ernst by the way could help hand control of the senate to mitch mcconnell, but last night she wasn't ready to offer her support for him. >> support mcconnell? >> i'm not there yet. i have to win an election. >> see, now, she's not doing that. she's not going to -- just making sure she wins? >> seriously. if you're running in any of the 50 states, would you say, yeah, boy, mitch mcconnell, i'm with him. no. and if i'm a democrat, would i go yeah, boy, harry reid, he's my man? no. willie, that just wouldn't happen. you also, though, have the question of what will happen over the next couple of years, what would a senate look like if mech mcc mitch mcconnell were in charge of it. you already have ted cruz saying he'll blow things up and we'll

have investigations and blah, blah, blah. the national media is picking up on that. i have a feeling, though, ted cruz is still an outsider in his own party in the senate at least. >> he may be. and i think that is a big question to talk about today. obviously we'll be immersed in these polls and what happens u mean for the country if the senate does go republican. does anything meaningful happen mean for the country if the senate does go republican. does anything meaningful happen. do things change inside washington. there may be more investigations and things like that, but does the government actually change based on what happens tonight. >> well, first of all, no matter you how well republicans do, they will not the have a filibuster proof majority in the senate. second thing is, this goes to what joe is talking about, what is mitch mcconnell's attitude coming out of this. he's saying the opposite of what ted cruz is saying. he says we'll break the gridlock and start passing bills and put them on the president's desk.

so is is that really true. can they actually pass those bills. on the budget, probably likely that he could because the republican house would be likely to want to go along and try to put those bills on the president's desk. and the other question is -- >> but you're talking about putting bills on the president's desk, you still have to get 60 out of it. >> the critical question is not just i agree with john that it's mitch mccon elg's attitude, it's also barack obama's attitude. does he want to say all right, you stuck to me, two year, i'm going to fight you every step of the way, or issues like immigration, koorcorporate tax reform, can he compromise. i think mcconnell and boehner would like to make some deal as. >> i think republicans understand john heilemann that this is a warm-up for 2016. they have lost five out of the last six presidential elections in the popular vote. demographics haven't been breaking their way. people want things done.

>> and that is on both sides. if you think about does barack obama want to spend the last two years of his administration getting nothing done. he has an incentive to get things done. and because what you just said, i think those more establishment republicans al is talking about like boehner and mcconnell, they must see that two years of doing nothing, doing what ted cruz wants does not help the party's prospects in the 2016 presidential election. >> i can only judge by mika, the best feedback is the feedback that i get. before the government shutdown, there were establishment republican, there were tea party republicans. >> right. >> i'm going to say certainly in like the venom that i had prply coming out of my twitter feed and -- >> venom. >> 2010, 2011, from, quote, tea party republicans. it's dissipated. >> i agree with that. >> i just can't see it anymore. we go out -- what are you smiling about?

>> the only venom is your twitter feed is from me. >> it comes from the people on the far, far, far left. but not the about me. republicans understand this is serious business. they saw what the government shutdown did. as they move forward, they know they have to get things done. if they don't, they will lose 6 six of the last seven presidential laekpresident election shal elections in the popular vote. >> i couldn't give them that much credit for correcting here. i think it's just circumstance. maybe they learn from it. >> but look at the people. how many people tonight, how many republicans tonight, are going to be defined as the, quote, rape candidates. thundershower. how many republican candidates have had to go on the air and say i am not a witch. to the best of my knowledge, no republican male with a large prostate is trying to redefine

rape in the 2014 election cycle. >> not this year. >> i think maybe they learned their lessons. >> no this yet will year. and that has been remarkable success this keeping lunatics from ballot. >> but i don't see the party going we want to correct from that. >> look at joni ernst. >> i share mika's reserve on this. let's see what happens in the house. i agree, joe, that the lanlgic logic is republicans want to get something done. the question is can you get anything through the house. on these issues where there is lots of room for compromise. you can tackle immigration, you can do it piece meal like the house says it wants to do. you can get it through the senate which has already passed comprehensive immigration, and you can come up with something that president obama would sign or a series of bills that he would sign. you could do that. but will the house be willing to

go along. and i'm not at all sure it would. >> you want to see the difference between republicans this year and two years ago and four years ago is th? look at this. tom cotton. he's a conservative. we all like him. joni ernst, we've talked to her. we've been in contact with her. we like her. scott brown, you know, i don't know what state he's from, he is a great -- scott brown is a great candidate that have fielded really good main street republicans with very good conservative values. >> joni ernst will probably win, but she's also said she wants to impeach barack obama. which joni ernst whether she up in washington? i agree with your analysis, but

it's the easiest place in the world to toss hand grenades. ted cruz will not be alone. >> let me tell you something. there are a lot of people even close to ted cruz, and i've talked to ted and i like ted. i really do. ted, though, is an eisland unto himself shutdown. and ted is running for president. joni ernsting is going to washington, d.c. and say i want for snuggle up to mitch mcconnell any more than she's going to ted cruz. there is going to be a happy medium thin there and i think ty will find their way. i disagree that ted cruz is going to have a lot of new freshmen flocking to him saying let's do the shutdown thing again. >> let's do the governors -- >> she pulls me back. >> you can't engage right now because we're going to break

soon. don't do that.cumbents who are really sweating. >> i'm starting to sweat. >> a poll shows dannel malloy in a statistical tie with republican tom foley. charlie crist up just one point on rick scott. and colorado is also too close to call, but democratic governor john hickenlooper has been trailitrai trailitrai trailing bob beauprez. he acknowledged, quote, we're a little behind. we'll have a lot more on that coming up. >> that is an example of a state and of course western mississippi will guns are making a big difference in that race. >> yeah, no doubt in that race. hickenlooper, all the governors races, they make their own wichwind and weather. but colorado is fascinating. republicans ended up taking

control of both the governor ship and senate race there. colorado, the state that barack obama in 2008 and 2012 seemed to be moving in to the blue column, it's already a huge swing state, but it would look very promising for republicans if they took both of those races. and the senate race -- >> how close is the new york race going to be? andrew cuomo. >> not that close. >> 20 points? >> less than that. >> do you know why it's less than that? gun legislation. upstate new york. that guy was sending 65%, 68%. and upstate. so we've talked a lot about guns over the past couple years. the only races that guns are really having an impact right now are in colorado. can we think of any others? >> how about connecticut. >> i think actually it's helping dannel malloy. in that case, gun legislation obviously newtown in connecticut, that is helping dannel malloy. but, yeah, it's dangerous for a

reason. and not just because of the big bad nra in washington, d.c.. there are a lot of voters out there, democratic voters. >> still ahead on "morning joe," independent u.s. senate -- >> john was looking at me again. >> you are impossible. it's like a child. it's time to bring it in for a landing. >> willie, i'm uncomfortable. >> james clyburn, greg orman -- >> willie is growing his weird again. >> it's been a long time willie. >> you can do a handle bar mustache? >> please don't do it. >> if i could do ram lleigh fingers, i would do it today. >> i can't believe this. you guy, haley barbour and martin short will be here. >> we love mar ten short. >> i love him. >> can't do that swimming bit together? >> yes. that was haley barbour. >> plus why jay leno is poised

for another "tonight show" comeback? >> what? >> we'll explain. and scientists have identified what is the catchiest song in british history. we'll reveal the tune that can be recognized in just over two seconds. and we'll poll gaze forgapologi it stuck in your head for the rest of the day. ♪ music ...the getaway vehicle! for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. (vo)solver of the slice.pro. teacher of the un-teachable. you lower handicaps... and raise hopes.

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time toe take a look at -- what are you looking at? >> what the heck is that? >> what is that? >> i don't know. but i'll take a look at the dallas morning news. >> who is that? >> four arab nations may soon team up to battle islamic extremists in the middle east. egypt is holding talks with saw saudi arabia kuwait about the fact. it would not be a wlilink to th u.s. coalition. and the u.s. is considering new strikes on nusra.

>> department of justice is leading a criminal investigation into the foreign exchange trading of jpmorgan chase. the bank says it's cooperating with the investigation and that there is no as sur rans it will result in settlements. the company also raised its loss estimates for legal proceedings from $4.6 billion now to $5.9 billion. >> and let's go to the "new york times". tom ma sgchlt liozzi along with his brother, ray, became famous as click and crack on the npr show car talk. he died monday at his home. the show focused on auto repair but because also an excuse for brotherly banter. at its peak, car talk reached more than 4 million listeners a week. tom was 77 years old. >> what a great show. >> a great show that had absolutely nothing to do with cars. i'm saying it had a lot to do with cars, but you -- >> a lot of your inspiration for

this show you you kept saying was car talk. >> so you're going to talk about politics? and i would say it's like car talk. it's not really about cars, it's about people talking and, you know -- >> that was the nice thing, you didn't have to be a gear head to appreciate the show. you learned things about car, but you heard two people who liked talking about life. >> and when i was pitching the show at the sgip ibeginning, i actually pitched car talk. >> so we can blame car talk for right now. >> yes, you can blame car talk. >> jay leno is returning to the "tonight show" as a guest on friday. this will mark the first time leno has appeared in studio since handing the reins to jimmy fallon. leno recently signed on for a new cbs series called jay leno's garage. >> and the guardian has found the poppiest song since the

1940s. remember this song? snet what i really, really, want, tell me what you want, what you really, really want ♪ ♪ ♪ tell me what you want, what you really, really want ♪ >> just stop it. >> that is the -- i won't. don't worry. my daughter always says that to me. that's part of the spice girls song wannabee. which does have some mop moms dancing like crazy. participants were time order how quickly they could recognize a given song. number two was -- >> come on. >> mambo number 5. number three eye of the tiger. >> i'm sorry, i want to hold your hands under pressure? i'm sorry. i can think of many queen songs that were catchier. >> we have to control for age. if they said spice girls, that means they're '96, '97.

>> i know that spice girls song very well. i might have made a fool of myself in front of my children with that song. >> daily news, this a-rod story is pretty unbelievable. >> jeter is gone. this year a r-rod is our star. >> look at that. a-rod, man. can you believe that? >> i have to start rooting for the mets. >> you guys are looking -- nothing. go on. you're looking at kate upton. brooklyn nets owner says there is no love loss between his team and former head coach jason kidd. net are off to a 2-1 start. >> there is a nice saying in english. don't let the door hit you where the good lord has put you.

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joining us now howard fineman. and on capitol hill, senior contributor of the daily caller, matt lewis. good to have both on board. we'll start with peggy noonan who writes this, if the republicans have as good a tuesday night as they increasingly expect, it would be nice if they were gracious and big-minded. wouldn't it be nice if they were happy but modest and made it clear they were aware of the fix we're in. it's not about me and it's not my hard work friends about you. it's about this thing we were given called america. it needs our help. so we're happy tonight, but it's work in the morning and the kind of work that is most important saving our country or more pointed employee know what this is, it's the base giving the party one last chance. they are telling us we better go something. that's the meaning i take and i

mean to come through. >> matt lewis, how important is it for the republican party to as peggy says win graciously and prove to americans in 2015 that they actually can did more than just block barack obama if they take control of the senate and the house is this. >> i think it's very important and it begins tonight. it begins with victory speeches >> i think it's very important and it begins tonight. it begins with victory speeches and concession speeches. people tend to remember the first thing you dond at last thing you do. and when we think of just recent incidents for example, i thought eric cantor's consensus speech was quite gracious. we can contrast that to what happened down in mississippi where there was a failure to con seeds the race. i'm a facn of peg sggy new maoe

an's writing. >> i think my party has more to proof. our approval ratings are way below president obama's, even senate democrats and house democrats. so that sfirs thifirst thing re do it they take control is critical. >> this in some ways was a par -- is a parliamentary election at least on the senate side. you've had harry reid against mitch mcconnell, those guys running the apparatus of the two parties. if mcconnell wins, how he handles himself is important. i've covered him for 30 years. the question is, having spent 30 years to get where he is, this is the job he's wanted his whole life, now what. what does he really want and how does he try to lead. yes, the house matters because

the house will be overwhelmingly republican. in the senate, it's the shuttle docock in the middle. but if mcconnell has the chops that he claims, he will have to rein in ted cruz, he will have to manage rand paul. he in effect is going to be an important spokesman for the party. is that good for the party? we'll see. >> all right. david brooks writes in the "new york times," death by data. this is a good one. over the past decade or so, political campaigns have become more scientific. campaign consultants use sophisticated data to micro target specific dem sgrask slices, campaigns trial test messages that push psychological buttons. pundits like me study the polling cross stabs. unfortunately, the whole thing has been a fiasco. as politics has gotten more scientific, the campaigns have gotten worse. data driven style of politics is built on questionable philosophy. there is the the belief that --

this is the belief that what matters in politics is the reaction of populations and not in-i don't syncretic judgment, moral character or creativity of individuals. >> steve jobs had run apple the way political consultants in washington run campaigns, seriously, we would have never had an iphone. >> i agree with that. but i think it is made even worse by the incredib kred bcre of money. north carolina, $101 million. and i defy anyone -- i wish we would have done this study. get a couple north carolinian this is january and see their basic knowledge address then november 4 after $101 million. i assure you it quantiwasn't en. >> i've been following politics like most of us since i was 5. ir read t i read the "new york times" since i was 7 or 8. do you know how many political ads i've seen this cycle?

one. and i think a lot of voters are that way. and i'm thinking if i'm running a race in connecticut and i've spent tens of millions of dollars, i'm -- we hear all these numbers. i'm just wondering if it isn't getting more and more wasteful. if it makes less and less of a difference. >> as al says, the money is overwhelming. advertising inin ining is over. like you, i've been watching politics since i was a kid. and i think al would agree with me, this is as close to a content-free cynical, mechanical election as i've ever seen. like all the voters out there saying we really don't want to vote for anybody. if you ask the voters should we cancel the midterm elections, i think overall they would say yes except for the fact they want to reach for the nearest thing they can grab to express some kind of protest. but it's kind of --

>> matt lewis, i forget what i was reading this morning because i was up way too early, but i where he had an article about a millionaire who is a traditional democratic activist and mark udall who the denver post nicknamed mark uterus started talking about abortion again. mika, can i finish, please? seriously. >> no i'm with you. he needs to stop. >> oh, okay. and the guy -- this life long democrat millionaire donor screams from the audience, god, there is more than this, just stop. and the republican, if i hear the same less taxes, less spending, less regulations, more freedom, blah, blah, blah. my god, matt lewis, i mean seriously. they think we're all -- the average wage has been going down consistently for worker since 1973. right?

entitlements, they're going to bankrupt us in 20 years. medicare and medicaid consumes every dime of our federal budget in the next ten years. and none of it discussed. nothing that matters is discussed. >> if republicans win, the really gusty move is entitlement reform. that is a substantive issue, not incredibly popular. but i think the phenomenon you're talking about if colorado speaks to this whole -- to the david brooks column which is essentially political consultants and numbers driving the way we run campaigns. and i would make an analogy to the world series that we just got done watching, right? you have this sabermetrics and people like the oakland as always playing by the numbers, and trying to do things according to what statistics say, what the so-called experts say. but then you have people like bumgarner who rise to the occasion, who have passion, who show up and do something

romantic and excellent. and that is what we're missing in politics, people who sort eschew the numbers and do what is right. >> on that david brooks column, i think you have to distinguish between poll driven and data driven which is different. president obama's two campaigns in 2008 and 2012 focused on data. there were more saber metric campaigns. there a lot of value. . >> to find voters and get them out to vote, i think that's beneficial to the system. if the republicans can find another ray began, if the democrats can find another fdr or clinton, we won't worry about the metrics a lot. >> but in the absence of that, it's can you target one micro passionate concern of one person to drag them to the polls. sort of point a list tick approach. tiny issue by tiny issue.of poi

approach. tiny issue by tiny issue. >> it's the competence election. >> and it makes it bloodless, too. mika and i went up to new hampshire and we sat and watched the crowd with barack obama final week or solve the 2012 campaign. they were just lifeless. there was no excitement. there was no joy. at the same time, i was having ron kaufman call me up from the romney campaign saying, joe, in pennsylvania, there are 35,000 people here, they're going crazy. joe, i'm in ohio -- like every day. and republicans on saturday started thinking who knows. because our mindset again growing up, ronald reagan, 1980, it's tied on friday. on tuesday, ray gap wins in a massive landslide. 199 1994 on friday, end up with 62% of the vote.gap wins in a massive landslide. 1994 on friday, end up with 62% of the vote. it is all micro targeted. >> doesn't happen in a midterm. >> howard fineman, matt lewis,

thank you both. >> look at howard. howard knew when to give it right back to you. >> yes, he does. >> i hope i did. if i'm doing the right thing, i'm giving it back to you. >> that undermine it is. all right. still ahead, he's been one of president obama's toughest critics for why things haven't gotten done in washington. but bob woodward says there has now been too much piling on the president. he joins us next so he can have it both ways. >> stop it. [♪] great rates and safety working in harmony. open an optimizer +plus account from synchrony bank. visit myoptimizerplus.com to open an account. service. security. savings.

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in freezers near you we have bob woodward. bob, we teased this saying that you've been tough on the president, but saying the pearling on is ridiculous. >> i think it is. >> it is kind of ridiculous you have these democratic candidates

that don't want him anywhere near them and i read a story last night about the president taped an oad for i think it was kay hagan in north carolina. and her opponent thom tillis immediately put it on his ad that barack obama was doing an ad for the democrat. it's all a little too much. >> it is. and think you have to be specific. yesterday there was a column in the daily beast by les gelb. les is one of the foreign policy experts of all time, was a columnist for the "new york times". worked actually on the pentagon papers in the government. and he wrote a column saying from the earliest days, obama ran this personalized centralized decision making process this foreiin foreign po. now, the first days respe, 2009,

i spent two years doing a book on exactly how in a microscopic way obama made his decisions in the afghanistan war. and clearly laid out i mean endless meetings, secret term sheet, read to all the generals and all the officers saying this is what i'm going to do. and you can rewrite history, but you need new information. people who are overdoing it. >> bob, if you look at some of the polling, latest gallup poll shows the president 41% approval, but much lower in some of the states that will be contested tonight and could perhaps go republican. you've cuff overed an awful lot these. how big a help or a doctoringra

president? >> i think he's become the problem of the angst people feel about their lives and the government this general. it's a very unsettling time. he's the ceo of the country. so he'll get blamed. but it's like covering the world series. you have to cover each game and sometimes the champions lose 9-0 in an individual game. on some of the things obama's done a very good job. take the financial crisis. yes, the economy is not perfect to say the least. but if you chart in detail what he did and what happened, it's quite remarkable. >> gene robinson, it stuns me when candidates start trying to run away from their president especially if you're a democrat and you're running against a republican party whose approval rating in most states is in the low 20s.

why aren't there more democrats out there saying even though i disagree with all these things, but it's easy even if you disagree to say, you know what, we were in a great recession that george w. bush gave us, we were heading for a great depression, and barack obama moved us from that position to now where unemployment is under 6%. the deficits were at record highs. they were exploding over a trillion dollars. they got up to $1.4 trillion. they have been cut to under $500 billion. people are getting back to work. the country is starting to move again. is everything perfect? no, it's not. but you know what, your 23-year-old kid who can't find a job because of the changing economy can still get health care if he or she gets sick. blah, blah, blah. this is not hard if you were a liberal and you believed and yet nobody -- >> how easy it was for you. >> i'm a conservative and i don't believe in this nonsense. it's not hard. why aren't they doing it?

>> i have no idea. you'd think you'd want to point thoug that out because people do remember what things were like in 2009. they're not as good as a lot of people would want. and people are anxious about their future. i have just one question for bob, though, about if he could put on his pundit hat for a second. i'm curious as to what you think, because you've studied the president and how he makes decisions, how -- do you think there is room for actually getting stuff done if the republicans do take the senate, do you think the president will approach a republican controlled senate and house with the attitude, okay, let's roll up our sleeves and get stuff done? >> sure, it's possible. but this question of why did the democrats run from him, the answer unfortunately is he is not engaged, not just with the

republicans in congress, but with the democrats in his own party. talked to the chairman much one of the big senate committees and i was laying out this there is no human relations 101 there bom oba dam to the democratic party in congress and he said how can you say that in, five year, obama has called me twice. well, you would think that obama would be on the phone all the time. so there is an alienation that has taken place on a human level. i think -- look, we know obama is smart and he can look and i think realize he's got to get some things done and maybe he'll change. but he's going to get out of the frame of mind that the congress is the enemy and that the republicans are total poison. >> thank you so much, bob, for

being with us. we greatly appreciate it. and thank you gene, as well. that is our "washington post" a-team. seriously -- >> very lucky. >> so bob is exactly right. i think the biggest shock for me being in the position that i'm in and i know everybody here has heard the same thing, from the very beginning of the obama administration, you had the most senior democrats in washington, d.c. badmouthing him behind his back saying he never reached out, that there was sort of this alienation from the very beginning. al, i heard it from the top people in congress. so if you want to understand tonight, i guess bob did answer my question, why democrats are running from barack obama is because he's never reached out to them. >> he hasn't done that enough. but i still think your point is

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if you're still undecided, the good news is that there are plenty of dignified campaign ads to help will you you make a decision. these are all real. take a look. >> i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm. >> conditioning man made news by skinny dipping on the job. >> i'll blow your balls off. >> more weed, less war. >> i like turtle soup. >> thom tillis and the senate. ♪ feels so right ♪ thom tillis for senate, you know it feels all right ♪ >> i like turtle soup. >> that is so good. still ahead here on this election day, he's one of the best political prognosticators in the business. charlie cook joins the table. plus a man who knows a thing or two about running a campaign. steve schmidt is here, as well.

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welcome back to morning joe. it is election day. joining us now, steve schmidt and charlie cook. good to have you both on board. dan said no talk, get rate into news. >> surest way to get joe talking. >> so there i am, it's the morning of the election in

1994 -- >> i got this. let me try a different strategy. 20 seconds, what does it look like today. >> looks like the republicans have to win. i'll talk to steve schmidt about this. why republicans have to win after i let you talk and do your, oh, i'm a newscaster thing. republicans have home field advantage. off year election. they're fighting in red state america. democrats are -- it's a political pickens charge, but they're running straight uphill. if republicans can't win tonight, older, wider, more republican, more conservative, fighting in high ground whether kentucky, arkansas, louisiana, georgia, north carolina, alaska, kansas, they can't win tonight, they can't win. you know, i woke up this morning actually thinking how bad it would be if my party couldn't

win with 100-mile-per-hour wind at their back. it would be pretty bad. so the stakes are very high for barack obama. they're very high for harry reid. but they couldn't be higher for this republican party. >> having said that, the white house is confident about the midterms predicting democrats will hold on to the senate. did you just smirk? >> yes. >> i was thinking about that lo that lose in a agains. >> "washington post" election lab puts it at 96%. mitt romney spent the final day of the cycle campaigning with dan sullivan. he's in a statistical tie with senator mark begich. it's also a virtual ted heat in new hampshire between senator sk gentleman nine shaheen and scott brown. and mark udall is closing the

game with cory gardner. and bruce braley has pulled neck and neck with joni ernst. last night she was not ready to offer mitch mcconnell her support. >> do you support mcconnell for leader? >> i'm not there yet. i have to win an election. >> and she's actually talked about that before. charlie cook, do you think the republicans -- these races seem very tight. do you think republicans have the majority locked down? >> these are all home games, you know, first six for democrats, montana, south dakota, west virginia, alaska, arkansas, louisiana. it's possible one of them might survive. and then you look at those four purple state, colorado, iowa, new hampshire, north carolina. if democrats held on to two of those, they would be really lucky. and i think roberts probably

goes over the side. georgia, you know, maybe slight advantage perdue. but you smush it all together, i don't know if i'm as high as those percentages, but pretty high. >> steve schmidt, what is your thought about tonight? >> i think tonight will be a big night for republicans across the country in the u.s. senate, though i think it will be a difficult night the for republicans in some of the governors races. so this is not a republican tide, this is an anti-obama tide. >> did you agree do republicans have to win tonight? >> i think if anything short of a clear majority here is a disaster. a disaster for the republican party. if we cannot win in this geography, in this political climate, it is a terrible omen for 2016 and it is a

catastrophic statement about the republican party's ability to compete as a national party. and it would also be a repudiation of the strategy that we're not going to try to legislate, we're not going to try to put forward a positive agenda at any level, just run against barack obama. >> and by the way, i predicted 53 seats. i think republicans will get 53. they may not. but, yeah, i agree this is the moderate republican party is -- >> to me seven seats gets you to 52. that's probably the most single likely. but i think 8 to 53 is probably next month, more than five, that sort of thing. but to both your points about if they don't win now, if republicans -- let's say you picked up five. they're at 50/50. then they go into 2016. 24 republican seats up. only 10 democratic seats up. six of those republican seats are in bin obama states.

that's how you get democrats to 53, 54. >> it's a reverse in '16. >> right. so republicans need to get not just a majority, but a cushion because '16 will be ugly. and then 18 o'18 flips around. >> so let's go through the governors races. incumbents are sweating today. quinnipiac poll shows dannel malloy in a statistictal tal tih the republican. charlie crist up just one point on rick scott. colorado taoo close toe enloope beauprez. >> and we were talking about wisconsin. >> scott walkner a fight for his political life. steve, what do you read into the numbers? >> people in this country are unhappy. a lot of anxiety in the country.

a lot of unsettle mlgtttlement country and they're taking it t out on the chief executives. people are generally disposed to be against the people who are in charge. >> is it losing in colorado because of guns? >> absolutely. one of the effects of this election, we are even further from any type of gun control legislation than we've ever been because you've seen the cultural disconnect between washington, d.c. and new york city and the actual rest of the country where guns are a huge part of the culture. and so after a tragedy like newtown, we sit around on the sets like on this show, we sit around in washington, we sit around if new york, and you see that taking place out in colorado where a governor goes out and tries to advance gun control legislation, there is a backlash from actual voters. democrats and republicans in these states.

and the message could not be clearer i think for any politician whoment with as to pick up this issue outside of a -- >> charlie, do you agree? >> i agree, but governor hickenlooper, democrat governor, was very popular until democrats won control of the legislature in 2012. and then they started moving left and he just sort of wandered along with them. and up to and maybe over the edge. it's nothing succeeds like success. >> let look at managing the message. a new ghal will you pleaew gall unpopular the president is in key -- >> by the way, do you trust gallup now? >> i don't trust them completely. but i think the approval numbers that they're showing are consistent generally speaking. >> and by the way this is a serious question. i'm not knock gallup. i still am having a lard time taking any of their numbers seriously after they told us

mitt romney was 11 points ahead. >> in 2012, numbers among registered voters were very good. it was only their model that seemed like it was looking at a different year. and so their likely voters. but all along, i just stopped looking at the likely voter he is and looked at the register voters and it was in sync with everybody else. >> president has approval rating of just 41% across the country. georgia, iowa, kansas or arkansas, that low or worse. yesterday jim clyburn took his own party to task for failing to convince voters of the president's policies. >> they have successfully made this campaign a referendum on president obama, which i do not believe would be all that important if we as democrats had done a better job on messaging

exactly what the president has done. >> steve schmidt, as a republican that opposed just about every domestic policy that the president put forward, it's easy for me to say to a democratic candidate, you say we're about to go into a great depression. the president stopped that. he saved the economies of michigan, ohio, indiana, the midwest. you know what else he did? he made sure if your child has a pre-existing injury, that he or she can actually get taken care of in this system. you can go -- like unemployment. >> you could go on forever. >> we're below 6%. this is not a hard case for democrats to make. and yet they have completely fumbled the ball. >> because of polls. >> also the only open pass over the mountain. >> exactly. >> you can't say, well,

equivocate on who she voted for. what you just said is the only thing if you're a democratic incumbent running who has voted for the president's agendas -- >> it's not that bad. it's good. >> al wliclison william grimes, me if i voted for president obama. >> who did you vote for? >> i voted for barack obama. he's dead wrong on coal, but he's gotten unemployment down, he's gotten people back to work. i mean, you can go through all that stuff and say here is the great thing. he's dead wrong on coal, he's dead wrong on energy, but i'm his friend and when i go to washington, unlike mitch mcconnell, i can have an impact on his energy policy and that will bring jobs back to kentucky and you're going to have somebody that can actually make a difference instead of having somebody that has promised to destroy his presidency from day one. that's not -- >> that would actually work. >> but part of the problem is there is a lot of scar tissue left over from 2009, 2010.

you go back and look, voters wanted to focus on the economy and the job creation and the white house checked the box on stimulus and then moved quickly to cap and trade and people were saying economy, jobs, and washington became obsessed on health care. and that's -- >> he certainly botched mi eed first two years and defined himself as big government liberal. that said, though, there is only one way over that pass and the democrats didn't take it. >> yesterday kay hagan finally had the president record a phone call to go out to voters. and that phone call was then will turned around and used by thom tillis in a campaign commercial to say, look, president obama is on the side of kay hagan and she's on his side. that's how toxic, whether right or wrong, candidates think he is. >> i don't care how you want to say it. i have three different days.

kate was asking about who napoleon was and i did the quote. if you're going to theresa enin a, theresa enin a. or joey scarborough's quote to me, go big or go home. as i as said in politics, they never stop you when you're going 90-mile-an-hour. only time i ever got trouble in politics is when i equivocated. they never stop you when you're going 90 miles an hour. and these democrats have been sounding like -- john kerry hates it when i say this, but it's true. the whole i voted for the war before i voted against the war. you can explain what that means all you want to. but it's equivocating and politicians hate it. and on something as simple as who do you vote for. >> do you think if the republicans sweep tonight that it really is a correction and they have a message or is it just a lucky break that they won't then actually learn from

for 2016? >> this is a vote of no confidence. steve schmidt, against barack obama. this isn't about what the republicans stand for. because republicans haven't really had a national message like we had in 1994 or 1980. they have to win. but, steve, i do disagree with mika on this report. i think republicans have learned their lessons. think two years there now if they win the white house they should put a statue of ted cruz somewhere with an i'm going to shut down the federal government placard underneath it. sort of like that that jimmy carter statue on the simpsons. but they have learned their lesson i think. >> i think ted cruz for example is the fixed variable. i think he will behave after republicans take the sglort a very predictable way. here's what we don't know the answer to. the republicans who followed like ted cruz over the cliff about a year ago, have they learned their lesson. when ted cruz starts in in a couple of days talking about

excessive investigations, impeachment, are people going to tell him to go sit down and be quiet in the corner, that this is serious business time for the republican party, we're going to pass legislation, we'll put it on the president's desk, we'll be for popular items and reinvigorate the national party. and i think that's an open question. we'll see how it plays out. >> i think to what extent are the republican gains just the romney plus 14 states. monday anna, south dakota, west virginia, alaska, louisiana, arkansas, if the gains where confined pretty much too to there, this election doesn't tell you anything. but if republicans start winning the purple states, that start telling you there is a message. otherwise it's just winning home games. >> that's what the rnc has said over the past month. we have to do more than just win red states. >> i was going it say, nobody more fun to sit next to on election day is charlie cook. we have the back of the

envelope, doing the math. >> all you need is beer and a cup of coffee. charlie cook, steve schmidt, thank you so much. >> who will win florida too is this. >> i think crist. and it's funny how millions of dollars spent in silly fans. >> do you think it will be crist? >> you know what, i think charlie is probably going to squeak it out at the end. i really do. >> chain gang charlie crist. >> you you remembremember. chain gang charlie because charlie wanted to prove he was a tough right wing republican, he wanted to put prisoners in chain gangs on the side of the road again. >> this is a great country. >> charlie was running as far right as he could a decade ago. and now he's going as far left

as he can go. but he's running against a guy at 35% approval rating since his will inauguration. and as far as like at faability go, i think charlie wins it. >> transparency in american politics. >> there is another person i can think of that matches that. still ahead -- >> are you talking about me? >> no. no. >> everybody knows i -- >> emmy and tony award winner martin short will be here. this is like my all time favorite person in the whole world. >> really? that's kind of big. i vote for jesus, but martin short -- >> i'm hurt. >> he's brilliant. >> plus greg orman is looking to shake up kansas. and the u.s. senate, i'm excited with this, he joins us in our 8:00 hour. >> james clyburn and haley b barber will be with us, as well. and if you have a canadian

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time to take a look at morning papers. we're snuggled up here. are you ready for the papers? philadelphia inquirer, police have released new chilling video of a woman being abducted off a philadelphia street. it happened just before 10:00 sunday night. frightening video shows the woman who has been identified as a 22-year-old struggling to fight off her attacker before being thrown into the back of a 2004 taurus. after the car pulled off, police say she managed to break both rear windows, but was unable to escape. police are classifieding the abduction as random, but family members believe the woman who worked as a nursing aide may have known her attacker. there is now a $10,000 reward being offered for the suspect's

capture and conviction. >> we have that video up on the website so people can look at that over and over again and see if they recognize any of the images. we get this from nbcnews.com, federal safety officials are getting ready to enter the next phase in their investigation of the deadly virgin galactic crash. officials say take brie frdebri up to 35 miles away, possibly blown in the wind. officials are now moving the debris they have into hangars as they investigate the crash that left one pilot dead and another seriously muhurt. video shows the co-pilot michael alsbury deployed the brakes too soon. bransoning the tragedy won't deter his team. >> they will move forward and create a spaceship company that

will be one day the marvel of the world. yes, it's a horrible setback particularly obviously for michael always bear rberry's fa and mike himself, but we owe to him to continue and that wie wil do. >> moscow times dedicated to steve jobs has been dismantled.. >> moscow times dedicated to steve jobs has been dismantled. in response to tim cook's announcement that he is gay. the monument more than 6-feet tall in the face of an iphone was outside the st. petersburg college by a group russian companies. in a statement, the group cited a russian law combatting gay rop began today as reason for removing it. last year, president putin signed a law prohibiting the spread of gay propaganda. >> that's kind of intense. >> they have a long way to go. >> you went to russia. >> took my iphone and everything. >> spreading gay propaganda

again. >> and i came back gay. >> really? >> the iphone 6 is super gay. >> really? >> there is an app for that. >> there is s ais an app for th? >> they had cell la braer to iphone covers with his face on them. >> that guy is a mess. let's move on. >> we get this from the telegraph. christian bail has pulled out of playing steve jobs -- >> should i return my iphone 6? >> no. or masculinity is safe. >> ork. >> i'm not worried about you at all. >> feeling a little weak. >> it's that plus. >> oh, no, i have the plus. oh, my god. >> be careful. act actor christian bale -- >> is he is so hot. >> he has pulled out of playing steve jobs in an

upcoming movie written by aaron sorkin. he was attached to this -- >> he'd be good. >> he'd be great. he really throws himself into his roles. but bahe said he wasn't the rig person for the part. this is not the first issue that plagued the movie about the am he will founder. director dropped out following a pay dispute. and no word yet on who will replace bale. i think seth rogen is also up for the part of wozniak. >> christian bale would have been great. >> christian bale is perfect for that role. >> intense guy. >> from the "wall street journal," taylor swift has pulled her catalog from the service spotify. it happened after it declined her request to only make her hit album available outside of the u.s.. the album is on track to break a sales record for female artists. spotty guy released a statement

saying, we love taylor swift and our more than 40 million users love her even more. we hope she'll change her mind and join us and n. building a new music economy that works for everyone. >> so veice news has a report o a young canadian map who is offering a free vacation to anyone who shares the same name as his ex-girlfriend because he can't cancel the tickets that he bought before they broke up. so if your name is elizabeth gallagher and you have canadian citizenship, you can go for free. >> do you have to go with that dude? >> yeah. >> but he says he won't talk to you. >> he just wants a woman with that name to show up and do her part at each airport and then they're on their way. >> elizabeth gallagher with a came t canadian passport. are you out there. coming up, if republicans take the senate today, what will

their agenda be? senator rob portman joins us to explain why 51 votes really matters. plus tom brokaw joins the table. it's election day. i'm on expert on softball. and tea parties.

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welcome back to "morning joe". with us now, senator rob portman. also tom brokaw joins the table, as well. rob portman, thank you so much for being with us. tom brokaw has the first question. >> senator, i was watching you the other morning and you're always the sensible voice. you talked about what you want to do, corporate tax reform, you want to do something as well about keystone, the oil pipeline. but to get all of that, water your margin is because it looks like it will be in your favor but small, what are you prepared to give to the democrats? you can't come these deals entirely on your own. are you prepared to negotiate for example on minimum wage or immigration reform? >> the exciting things about those topics is there is a lot of democrat support for them. with regard to the keystone pipeline, and i've talked about

km paining that with energy efficiency legislation, all that is bipartisan, tom, so we have the opportunity to get to 60 votes in the senate that are needed. they have already passed the house and get them to the president for his signature. hopefully we'll be negotiating with the president in advance on that he can have his input into it. i think he likes interest aspects of a more comprehensive energy bill that would have efficiency standards approved for homes and the federal government and so on. so this is an opportunity on taxes, it's the president who has talked about the fact that these countries are going overseas because our tax rate is the highest in the developed world. so we need to lower that rate. and broaden the base, meaning getting some of the loopholes. that is something republicans can work with. so i think we can find common ground on some of these issues. another one you mentioned is trade. it's the president who has said i want the ability to negotiate new trade agreements. at the state of the union, he said give me trade promotion authority. it was harry reid who the next day said ain't going to happen

in my senate. so let's have a good debate on that. the president and republicans agree on that one. let's help the farmers, service providers, workers looking for the ability to sell more products overseas. so i think there is common ground here. >> what are the chances that you'll get some of what the democrats would like to have, immigration reform and increase in the minimum wage? >> i think immigration reform is something we ought to do. i don't think the bill in the senate will pass. i think it will focus more on enforcement first. we need to deal with the issue so people understand that there will be enforcement, there was not during the last immigration legislation. but i think it's possible to do it and i think there is a lot of agreement on certain aspects of it. the dream kids, increasing skill visas, encouraging people who go to school here to have green cards stapled to their dip low made. so there are opportunities there, as well. >> senator, john kasich will win

tonight pretty easily. explain for us why it is that republicans can be doing so well nationally in the senate races and yet some governors races like yours in ohio, yet other republican candidates struggling so much in other places in the country. >> well, you're the expert at this, but i will tell you i think john kasich will win because he's done a good job in ohio. we closed the budget gap without raising taxes and made ohio more job friendly. but i think there is an apity i anti-in-kcumbency mood. so maybe for some the rope they want a republican senate to break the rsgrid lock, that may play in some of these numbers. people feel worse about the country today than they did in 2010. and the president obama's approval rating is substantially

lower. so both those things may play in favor of a republican senate. but with regard to incumbency generally, it may work the other way. >> senator portman, thank you so much. >> great to see you. >> steve schmidt, what is the likelihood you'll have a republican party in the senate that will be able to deal with the republican party in the house? let's say with keystone. we'll give you keystone, but minimum wage is going up to $9 an hour. how possible is that for this republican party? >> i think tom's point is the right one here. in order to get republican legislation passed to the president's desk with democratic support, to get it signed, republicans will have to compromise. we'll have to accept that sometimes you get the best deal you can get and you take it. and so we shouldn't in my view break our pick on issues like the minimum wage. there are other issues which from a republican perspective i think are much higher priorities. and first among them is energy

legislation. the governor of texas, rick perry, has talked about that this country should be the great argu arsenal of energy. for the free world, we look at the lng revolution, the export terminals that could be built enormously in parts of infrastructure, a lot of jobs on the east coast. republicans should be for this stuff. and we ought not get distracted by issues like the minimum wage in my view. >> just to be clear, when he's talking about the arsenal of energy, they're not talking about the football club. steve is making a lot of sense, but the other view that reveils in a lot of the republican party is that no one wants to do a deal that barack obama will be for. there a strong sentiment in the house particularly, but in also in some part of the senate, that's bad for the republican party. so which do you think will be

the dominant view within the party? >> this is like the weekend before the super bowl which everyone has an opinion and they say with great confidence about what will happen. i don't know what will happen. i know, nice try. but the fact is that we have to get them there, the dynamic has to play out. is it going to be ted cruz who will determine the tone of the republican-led senate or will it be somebody like rob portman. that's what we have to understand is yet to come. my open feeling about the keystone pipeline by the way is that two years from now, president obama will be putting bags in the car and getting the kids and driving off and he'll say i i forgot about the keystone pipeline. well, i can't get back to the white house, so i can't do anything about that. they will keep this out there as long as they possibly can. >> how do your friends up in montana feel about ketone? >> mond keystone? >> they have had such a scramble on the democratic side. jon tester is determined to take a look at his future.

does he want to put up with this for another six more years. and they will get a snenator ou of there. the legislature is republican. i think it's reflective of a lot of country. they're not hard i'd lodge ii g. a river guide says about difficult clients, that client is ticked off in the half cock position. and that's the way the country is. you can use your imagination. >> i'm trying to piece it together. all right. coming up next, it could be a big long night for democrats. do democrats have themselves to blame? congressman jim clyburn joins us next. along with andy walter from the cook political report. t of scho. my family's all military.

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here with us now you from columbia, south carolina, representative congressman james clyburn. and in washington, amy walter. good to have you both. say you're running for re-election and the president wants to help you run. and you're asked who did you vote for, how hard is this answer? >> well, you know, if i were asked that question as alilison was, i'd simply say, look, i'm in fact a -- i was a delegate for hillary clinton, but my standard bearer is barack obama. i voted for him because of this, that and the other. but i do disagree with him on a lot of issues. his energy policies are bad for kentucky and i would hope to get

to washington and help him get it right. i just think there was a way to finesse that answer and not get beingaccosted the way she did. >> congressman, just to follow up on that question, i was watching "face the nation" this weekend. and he said it's sort of crazy for these democrats that are counting on african-american votes to come out on election gay and then they won't even go so far as to say they voted for barack obama. and he said he thought that was counter productive and in some ways disrespectful to the african-american base. do you agree with that? >> well, certainly i do agree with that. the fact of the matter is i don't think numbers started to plummet until after she botched that question so significantly. i do believe especially in this

part of the country you have to finesse these issues in a way that will give everybody a level of comfort. and we out to just admit it. we do have a problem in this country with racial issues and it's more pronounced here in the south and some of the border states. and if you're going to get involved in the political world, that's one of the things you ought to spend a lot of time bringing people into your discussions, letting them help you navigate through these things. i just think that we've had some good candidates whose campaigns have suffered because they have in order had good advisers on questions like this. >> jim, always good to see you. s s >> thank you, joe. >> i've heard people talk about race being an issue. barack obama is the first democratic president since fdr

to win two elections in a row. he's black. i don't know if people know that. he's black. he's the first democratic president to get over 50%, win a majority of votes in america, a black man did that. if you look across the deep south, and i'm sorry, i'm sorry, i get a little ticked off when democrats lose election and start talking about that. the region that you grew up in, in very different circumstances earlier than i grew up in, so i'm certainly -- i'm certainly not even treading on that ground of understanding how bad things have been for african-americans across the deep south. but if you told me as a republican a year ago that republicans would not have put away sggeorgia, louisiana, arkansas, kentucky and all these other -- north carolina, all these other deep south states by now, let's say ti'd say democrag pretty well. so when i hear the suggestion

that barack obama's democrats may not win because of race, i just don't think that argument holds water in 2014. >> i didn't say they would not win because of race. what i did say, joe, was a lot of their campaigns have suffered because they have not been able to answer some questions about the racial matters sufficiently in order to new answer these things. i think you would agree with me being from northern florida as you are from and i campaigned down it there a couple weeks ago, i think you would agree with me that it is an issue that has always been involved not just in the south. look up in new hampshire. i was up there and i can tell you that issue is very pronounced up there. they have a governor up there that i think some people ought to be embarrassed by, yet he is running neck and neck in the polls. so this is not just in the south.

it is an american issue. it's been this way since the founding of the country. and let's work on trying to get it behind us, not denying that it exists. >> i don't deny that it exists, but i also don't think that's the democrat's problem in 2014. >> so let's back up to 20,000 feet. amy walter, how are things looking for tonight? >> well, things are looking of the way that we talked about last week which is you just sort of feel at the end of a campaign where the momentum is going. and we know traditionally races do not break 50/50. they don't go half to this party, half to this party. they sometimes break 6 on%, 70%, sometimes 80% to one party. and right now it feels where it is breaking is to republicans. georgia, north carolina, democrats have looked likeand r is breaking is to republicans. georgia, north carolina, democrats have looked likesomet. and right now it feels where it is breaking is to republicans. georgia, north carolina, democrats have looked likeand r is breaking is to republicans. georgia, north carolina,

democrats have looked likesomet. and right now it feels where it is breaking is to republicans. georgia, north carolina, democrats have looked like they were gaining or holding, and now they're pared back. i wouldn't be surprised if republicans win both of those. you're looking at a place like colorado where democrats were hoping that the mail-in ballots were the key there. that would help democratic turnout. and what we find is it's actually the republican areas that are turning in more ballots than denver. >> let's talk specifically about congressman clyburn's state because there is history that will be made in south carolina. specifically when it comes to the re-election, potential re-election of lindsey graham and also where our not tther or see senator scott come back. >> right. >> so this is big for the people of south carolina. but explain with a we've been watching there and how those races have been run. >> well, i think south carolina is a great example of where you have a female governor who is independent yian american who l she will be easily able to win. we haven't heard as much about

her as we have some of the other governors who came in in that class because i think she's done a very good job holding down her ratings -- holding on to that race in that state. and tim scott and lindsen linds graham, graham successfully navigated the primary. tim scott not the really having any challenges. so i think it's a state that is incredibly diverse.the really h any challenges. so i think it's a state that is incredibly diverse. that will be important to get the voices out there. >> all right. congressman clyburn, amy, thank you, as well. >> think about that steve schmidt. you have an indian american female that will win in south carolina. and you've got an african-american male that will be elected senator there. pretty can diverse. >> makes you want to pull your hair out when charlie rangel says some people in the republican party don't believe slavery is over.

and you look at the home state of mr. clyburn, as you said, indian american woman governor, african-american united states senator, african-american united states senator, and lindsey graham. we have a lot of diversity in the republican parties. we don't do a good enough job talking about it, and as we look around the country, or hispanic governors -- still ahead, full election analysis from chuck todd and andrea mitchell and greg orman leg next. one of pranks in late night, the reaction from kids after being told their parents ate all their candy. >> it's kind of mean. >> if you have it on video, it's funny. can you start tomorrow? yes sir. alright. let's share the news tomorrow. today we failrly busy. tomorrow we're booked solid. we close on the house tomorrow. i want one of these opened up. because tomorow we go live...

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last night i ate your candy. >> why? >> because it was good. >> you ruined my life. >> we ate it all while you were sleeping. >> no! [ crying ] >> all of it? >> all of it. >> every single bite? >> yeah. >> you must have a belly ache. >> i got hungry last night. >> eat an apple.

[ crying ] >> those aren't real drawers, buddy. >> get out. >> we ate all the candy. >> we'll get some more next time. don't worry. >> i ate all your candy. >> that's okay. >> i told you not to! i told you! you can never ever ever listen about candy. >> that is so funny. >> that is great. coming up comedy legend martin short will be with us on set. i'm so excited about this, i can't stand it, but first or

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i wonder how that happened. >> the soul of wit. >> do you think it was you that put us on time here? >> probably was. >> i don't think so. welcome back. joining now we have msnbc political director and moderator chuck todd, president and ceo of reply coal and capital new york,

jim vand high. >> he is so powerful. >> and andrea mitchell and in washington political reporter for "the washington post," robert kosta is joining us well. this is exciting. early thoughts on mid terms? >> i'm along that republicans have to win. >> we are going to hear what red state america thinks of the last two years. this is being fought. two years from now the senate races will be mainly fought in blue states, and republicans need to win tonight. a lot of close polls here. >> it is. look, on friday it felt like you could feel the beginnings of the wave building. then i have to stay just what sort of stopped me in our tracks was our own poll. you know, african-americans are more engaged in this -- >> and the quinnipiac poll in

iowa. >> and you look at the early votes, and african-american votes is backing that up. that said, colorado i think looks the early vote, it looks like republicans did, i think, did win the early vote as far as what they needed to do. i think they look pretty good in iowa, though i think it will be close. but it is sort of -- there has always been something holding the gop back from having just a massive night. maybe it's their brand, maybe it's the fact that they had a -- >> it's the gop. >> the only message they have is anti-obama. you know what i mean? there's just something missing there. >> there was lack of a message or agenda. you're angry at the democrats, angry at the incumbents, dissatisfied with the president. that's very clear from all the polling, but what are you voting for? that's what's been completely missing. i agree with chuck. i don't know whether to believe

the register poll that we always thought was the poll, but it's the outlier now. >> you can be a good pollster and might have an outlier every ones in a while. let's not throw it under the bus. >> i've been a poll tracker, i just want everybody to look at this. why have the republicans not put it away? if you look down in the middle there, you have the republicans minus 20. on approval rating. favor rating, democrats minus 8. as bad as barack obama's numbers may be, they're nowhere need as bad as republicans' numbers nabilly. that's why it's close. >> the republicans could end up tonight with the larger house majority since 1949, despite the fact that two thirds of voters disapprove of the republicans. >> how does that happen? can you explain how that is going to happen tonight?

how? >> it happens through a couple things. one redistricting, two, president obama being very unpopular, three this trend where americans are moving next to people who share their political views, so real density of partisanship if you look how difficult it is for democrats to win, despite the fact the brands is so damaged and that people seem to lime democrats more than republicans. >> you're asking why is it the republicans can actually pick up a dozen seats. you know they're going to pick up most of them in -- jerry brown has not run a race. republicans may net two seats out of the california, maybe three. new york, with andy cuomo not really running a big race. they made no democratic turnout machine, republicans are a little more excited, they could net two or three. >> by the way, they could net a 38-year-old woman from the

northern part of the at a time state that's going to get elected. >> and michael grimm. >> my point is where you have the competitive races, the house races are very competitive. in the places where there aren't competitive states, that's where republicans will win some seats, that they'll lose, by the way, in two years, but they'll pad their majority to have a firewall in case hillary clinton wins big. >> i think a clean sweep for reps would be bad for 2016, but -- for them. >> never bad to get the majority for your party. >> what do you think is the bellwether tonight? what race are you looking at tonight? what early returns are you looking at to see if it's a big night for republicans or if democrats will hold serve? >> i think you have to keep an eye on new hampshire. if scott brown wins early, i think we'll see a wave,

republicans winning in blue states they weren't always expected to win. he's run on a hawkish message on foreign policy, taking advantage of the rise of the islamic state, has run hard against ebola. if brown can eke out a win -- >> we've been talking about how things favor republicans. here's a state where you have a guy from another stake that has gone to new hampshire, he's gone up against one of those powerful democratic names and she's underperforming. why is that? >> i was always surprised why brown was never really tagged as a carpetbagger. when you talk to voters in new hampshire, you really understand that president obama is deeply unpopular in new hampshire. though jean shahin is a popular former governors, the president's numbers have dragged her down. >> shahin can win, but the point

is new hampshire is the media market. if you're from massachusetts, new hampshire sees you so much, and he bale that. '02, '06, '08, '10, '12, '14, only did it go again -- >> to look for new hampshire tonight? >> it tells you more than any other state. >> it's been an expensive toxic election cycle, but there's earl signs. associated press found that 16.4 million votes have already been cast in 31 states, eyly surpassing 2010's mid terms. in iowa, there are more registered republicans voting early than democrats. in colorado, where they have a new mail-in ballot system, more republicans are returning their ballots by mail than democrats, this is leaning toward what we

are predicting. early voting is up 20% from the last midterm in 2010. registered democrats have outvoted republicans by almost 16% and participation from african-americans and women is up as wellent 6 allege and this morning we have learned that already in alaska, early voting has topped 2012, a presidential election year and report dloi the second highest on record. >> so jim vandehei, the koch brothers, and basically after 2012 told the rnc to get lost, they were going to -- >> build their own party. >> they were not going to pour their money into the rnc and have them lose again. they started obsessing on getting people out to vote, what barack obama and some of the left had done two years earlier. er we possibly seeing the if impact of that? >> personal. >> where you now have both parties really knowing how to

get their people out. >> i hate to say definitively that republicans have made gains, you just don't know until afterwardsened you figure out whether they have narrowed that gap on technology. i think mika was about to say it earlier. even if republicans win, i think they'll be in a hell of a jam. in that they're not going to be able to to get anything done cruz the other day was saying i'm coming in as conserve stitch as i was. or we are going to make in 2016 primary about being ultraconservative. it's what's going to make governing impossible over the next two years, if you look at the history of the last four years in terms of how these louse republicans want to vote and the base -- >> what their message has been when there's been one. >> i'm actually a little more

hopeful that things will get done. i go back to bob costas, what happened to the 1990s. people say it was different. not really. we impeached bill clinten. we investigated him every day. i was on the oversight committee. we had a new investigation going every day. we still figured ute how to get things done. what are you sensing, other than ted, when you talk to other republicans about what the next two years might look like if they get the senate? >> i think jim brings up an important point. senator cruz certainly wants to be more aggressive, but you have to look at the comp position of the new class of vii. you see they are conservative in their politics. when it comes to their temperame temperament, they're more congenial and more willing to compromise. steve danes in montana, dan sullivan in alaska, these are people rob portman recruited,

they're more moderate in how they approach -- so some of the conservative flank will still there, but a more complicated, nuanced group. >> a much more complicated nuanced group. even mike lee, who after the government shutdown -- i mean, a very conservative guy, understood there are ways that you pass bills in the senate, things that work and things that don't work. >> i think that jim was touching on, and andrea, i feel like if they win the senate, it will only xwolden their most self-destructive ways i don't see a correction that's happened that is making for this potential sweep. >> is this an objecti wand ke i >> they would really correct. no? >> i think that is the unknown question, which republican party is going to show up? let's say there's a victory, you

do have, as joe serbs, the corkers, lamar alexanders and others, but then you have jim imhoff who will be in is it charge of the environment. you can get things done. i don't know about imsgrags, but look there will be a certain amount of let's investigate everything. mccain is going to have a heck of a good time running armed services. >> but if you look though -- we did this earlier. if you look at who has survived the republican primarily. tom cotton, very conservative guy, but as bob said, very congenial. what i have always said jodi ernst the same way. >> ted cruz is the outliers. >> he actually in this party is the outlier.

>> the majority is always worth having. you don't want to sit there and say, geez -- be careful what you wish for. if you look -- only one six-year itch election has led to the party not winning the election -- if i were democrats tonight, i wouldn't be sitting there going it's just a midterm, it's just a road game, all this stuff. losing the majority is a big deal. gaining the majority for the republicans is a big deal. look, i think that theres a -- it will be interesting to see how the white house reacts. i wouldn't be surprised the without, if they're smart after tonight and they get their she could lacking, i would invite this new class of republicans to the white house and start immediately. they were elected with the message of you guys have to get something phone. >> and there were a lot of republicans you talked to, bob, a lot of republicans i've talked to, that have learned a lot from

the government shutdown. i think that's one of those defining moments of presidential campaigns. i paid for that -- mr. green -- i think that's been a defining moment at least for the republicans i've talked to in washington, d.c. who understand the lessons learned in 2010 were not lessons that actually helped at all in 2012. >> i think the lessons learned are not only among republican politician, but the electorate. lamar alexander survived. mitch mcconnell survived. you didn't have chris mcdaniel winning in mississippi. republicans broadly speaking seemed to recognized you have to have candidates that are willing to gonch. we could overstate this, the chamber of cher talked about, no, no, no. this is not the party we want, and a lot of other people involved. i remember the first race,

chuck, alabama won, the special election where the chambers, the rickets, everybody came in and said this stops now, you shall not pass, boom. >> i think the single most important moment in this campaign was brett favre and the chamber of commerce and that ad that saved cochran. had chris mcdonald -- he would have been a todd akin, he would have -- he would have made the republican party's problems nationally every senate candidate would have to deal with it. chris mcdaniel came in with so much baggage. i've talked to republicans who say it is the most underrated, most important result of the turning point in their charge of look at all the -- >> brett favre, look at that. >> that's true. >> and it's southern miss -- >> one last stab at defending mika's thesis on this. tom cotton, go ask speaker boehner if he thinks that the's

someone you can work with. it's going to be extremely difficult to govern. i agree this is a better class than they fielded the previous two elections. >> but it's not a conscious choice. >> but you know what, though? as a conservative, this is what i've been talking about for a long time. it's not about ideology. as far as winning elections, you don't ant win on ideology. i can say as a conservative, i like these candidates. finally you have somebody that will be conservativconservative fight for entitlement reform, may not be as expansive with foreign policy and also something that doesn't care, you know, little children. >> not a witch or a rape candidate -- >> i mean i could just say -- >> it always depends on which white house shows up.

as chuck says. >> what's the answer to that? >> i don't know yet. ronald reagan and bill clinton both faced the same situation, losing the senate in a situation where one was being impeached, one had iran/contra, and they got stuff done. >> i sat down with paul ryan, and he said if the republicans win the senate and they're going to the without and saying, tax reform. that will be at the top of his agenda, see what the white house is willing to do. >> jim vandehei thank you for liking my thesis. >> not that i likz it, i'm supporting it. >> it's a thesis. >> it's a hypothesis. >> if we lose, we really lose. >> you know what? >> i'm with chuck. >> hey! i would like to see a really good republican win the nomination, have a really good race in 2016. i don't think this batch will get you there. sorry. >> i'm sorry. i think there are some good,

strong, conservative republican candidates. >> i do, too, except they haven't gotten there by correcting, and correcting on your thesis that crazy doesn't win, and all that. >> joni ernst isn't is it crazy -- >> i'm not saying they're crazy. >> you may disagree idea logically. >> do you get what i'm saying? >> joni ernst -- >> is fantastic. >> going to win the state possibly that barack obama has carried twice. >> not just carried. it launched the presidential campaign. iowa giveth, iowa taketh. >> chuck todd thank you, robert kosta, andrea mitchell and jim vandehei. he may be the democrats ease best chance, but that's only if he decides to caucus with them. greg orman joins us. plus what happened to wendy davis.

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this is exciting. >> the independent candy forred u.s. senate? kansas, greg orman, thank you. the first may sound like a softball question. you are very close to doing what so few people do, and that is take on political parties and take on 150-year-old due oply

and actually win. >> this is what the voters are kansas are doing. they've finally said we're from us traited, wee fed up, we don't like the partisanship? washington, we don't like the endless game playing and fighting. we want to send somebody who will focus on solving prone and not playing political games i think this is so much more about the voters of kansas than me. >> is it about pat roberts? >> i think the voters understand he's been connected from the state. he's been in washington for 47 years. when he's there he doesn't bother to go to committee meetings and when he votes, he votes against the interests of kansans. they believe that both sides are more interested in playing

political games and winning election than they are in terms of solving problems. >> two easy questions. >> soft balls? >> those were two soft balls. a lot of republicans think that the label "independent" is a scam. they talk about clair mccaskill. >> this is a good one. >> and basically saying yesterday i would be glad to take bets that you weren't going to caucus with democrats. so how do you quinn kansas voters that you really don't know who you're going to caucus with when you go to washington. >> i think you'll realize i've been very independent for most of my political life. from 1991 i had a quote from ross perot in it. >> that makes me very sad, that you had a yearbook in 1991 i'm so old, but go ahead.

>> i've supported democrats in the past and republicans in the past, but i think the two-party system isn't work for us, and the only way to challenge washington is to challenge the system. >> andrea. >> a lot of people would agree with that, andrea. i get that, a pox on both their houses, but there's so much ideological differences. how can you not know if you're in favor of obamacare or in favor of repealing obamacare? there are too many differences between senate republicans and senate democrats to say i'll decide after the election? >> again, i think if you look at my stances on the issues, we've been clear about a lot of things, and in some cases i agree more with the republican position on issues, and in other cases i agree more with democratic issues. >> before we go, greg, might you caucus with republicans? is there a possibility? >> you know, i've said from the

beginni beginning, will caucus with whatever party wants to solve problems. if we are the deciding vote, the swing vote, i think that's a great opportunity to both define a problem-solving agenda? the senate and hold the majority accountable, whoever the majority happens to be. at the end of the day this isn't about supporting or prop up the republican or democratic party. >> i didn't get a yes or no there. >> he said that -- >> he said yes? >> sure. >> either party, if they're willing to solve our problems, i'm willing to work with them. >> greg, thank you so much. by the way, i greatly appreciate you having the guts to come on a show the day of an election. >> i know. >> so many people are afraid of their own shadow. i'm going to forgive you for having a yearbook in 1991. >> yeah, why did you do that?

>> thank you for that. >> thank you so much. greatly appreciated. we have the co-host selfflbs's "the cycle ari melber. and haley barbour. your ears must have been burning about 15 minutes ago, because chuck said if republicans win tonight, people will look bat a what happened in mississippi that might be what made the difference in the long run. >> well, i appreciate that. senator cochran deserved reelection. he can do a lot more for our state than chris mcdaniel, and yes, chris mcdaniel said some things that everybody in our party would have had to either say they agreed with or disagreed with. >> right. so how are the republicans -- i said how are we going to do tonight, haley. i'll be down the middle -- how

will the republicans do tonight? >> it looks good. i think it's more likely than not that republicans will win control of the senate, but we can crow about that later. right now we need to get our vote out. we've had good early voting, we need to have a big turnout. >> would you agree -- i've been saying, you know, we actually just kind of like pick the charge for democrats, they're fighting in a lot of receipt states. six years in. the republicans really need to win tonight or it's bad news for our party. >> it's bad news for the country. the country is in gridlock. we need a president who will lead. he hasn't done that. we need a senate that will work. harry reid has refused to let things come to the floor for a vote. as a member of congress yourself, joe, do you know the u.s. senate hasn't voted one appropriations bill all year? >> unbelievable.

>> if the business of government is to tax and spend, to pay for our programs, they haven't even had a vote on a single appropriations bill. we need a senate that works. >> yes, we do. >> greatly appreciate you being with us. good to see you again. >> take care. >> ari is back from texas. >> they need to thank him and brett favre. the question is, what happened to wendy davis' campaign. could it have been that she was actually pushing to a race that no democrat could have won? >> that definitely could be the case. i went and spend time with battleground texas. that's got a lot of 23e67 -- what i found is even the votes excited about voting democratic and say we have to do this one more time for president obama, no mention for wendy davis. >> why? >> i don't think she connected as a broad-based appealing -- the castro family and some other

groups have talked about a broad-based appeal. she ultimately, fairly or not, seems to have viewed as a single-issue candidate. >> okay. ari melber, you have a busy day and night ahead. >> this is true. >> get to work, get writing. my god you're going to be up all night. >> i'll see you at 9:00 a.m. also the digital decision beginning at 10:00 p.m. eastern on msnbc.com, and he's co-hosting the overnight election coverage. ari, that's not healthy. >> what i'm going to do is take my big urn of coffee and wheel it over to you. >> still ahead. >> you're so excited. >> i am. >> just read it. >> the story of how a hum many canadian kid turned himself into hollywood's go-to funny man.

the great martin short joins us when we return. tional is one of the busiest airports in the country. we operate just like a city, and that takes a lot of energy. we use natural gas throughout the airport - for heating the entire terminal, generating electricity on-site, and fueling hundreds of vehicles. we're very focused on reducing our environmental impact. and natural gas is a big part of that commitment. your customers, our financing. your aspirations, our analytics. your goals, our technology. introducing synchrony financial, bringing new meaning to the word partnership. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. enagage with us.

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♪ my little buttercup ♪ has the sweetest smile and this i just don't do anymore. and this is fabulous. into the room. >> welcome, uncle jack. >> he's half-deaf. >> it was a stupid, stupid

hire -- not higher. hire. >> i've watched your shows for years, even though it's been kind of hard to find. >> i think primetime is a better time for us. >> you've been a great supporter. you of course are not. >> little tin soldier. right, and now with an attitude. hello. ♪ sweet little buttercup ♪ my little buttercup ♪ i love you he is my favorite person of all time. >> i said you're number two. >> what? >> i've got to put jesus number one. >> comedy genius martin short is out with a memoir. >> the views are incredible here. >> larry david says this -- what a wonderful book. if only it was about someone

else. >> oh, larry. >> only if it was someone us. >> good to see you. >> nice to see you. >> oh, my gosh. >> we met at the "vanity fair" party very hiply. this morning i watch every morning of my life. >> get out! >> i wake up to it. i am endlessly fascinated by political discussion that is truly fair and balanced, and has all sides represented. >> well, thank you. >> thank you very much. >> so we are the party and mika sees you coming and runs -- it's like they were running towards each other in slow motion. i love you he said, i love you. >> no, it wasn't reciprocal, but i was all over him. >> let's talk about the book. my life as a humble comedy legend. >> yes. >> what's in it? >> it's a memoir -- this is

something i didn't know how to do for a long time and had been asked to do it. and then you just nora ephron said you know how you write a book, you write. you just start writing. i realized it couldn't be just about show businesses, meeting frank sinatra, stories like that. but also in my life, i've had many ups and downs, like every human being, and you realize that if you -- your natural orientation is to be happy, and you can figure it out and you do it maybe not without a slew of therapists, but you do it yourself and you become stronger from it, hey, maybe that you can put into a book, too. >> talk about some of the down times. >> you know i grew up in a big irish-catholic family, where things happen to other families but never to us. suddenly when i was 12, my eldest brother dave died in a car accident. when i was 17 my mother died of cancer. and when i just turned 20, my

father died of a stroke. we were now four instead of seven, and i'm 20 embarking on my life and i say, how do i figure this out? you ride on your bike for a while, you figure it out, and you return to this thing, and then i married my wife when i was 24. we had the happiest greatest life and at 60 she died of ovarian cancer. i'm at the same position at 60 as i was 20, and you figure it out again. >> how did you figure it out after losing your wife? >> you realize that the sun will rise no matter what, the friends who carry care about you most will who irabout that scratch in their car, and it's up to you to regain strength. the night before my wife died, my youngest son henry and i sat in the jacuzzi, i said, i know this is the worst night of your life, but you are being empowered tonight. you're learning something as a

120-year-old that if they haven't gone through it, doesn't understand. you will be tougher, stronger with a boss five years from now, because you'll have gained. there's a engiyin for a yang. when i started off as ed grimly, not caring whether the audience thought i was nuts or not, maybe i was a little braver. >> what do you have to lose? >> what do you have to lose? >> you already lost -- >> you've already gone through stuff. so there is an empowerment. >> you obviously have a lot to share about survival -- but moving on and being stronger. when you were speak at nora ephron's service, i got that from you. it was beautiful. absolutely beautiful. i know we're supposed to be making everyone laugh, but these are great messages. >> you know, i just thought if the book is only about -- there's a lot of funny stories. >> you're hysterical.

>> but if it's only about that, it's not much of a thing. >> because you're a full person, not just a comedian. >> has it been hard, as you go through the ups and downs, especially when you're in public and going through the downs. >> that's got to be hard. >> people poking at you. i'm sure you're grateful that you're successful, and 99% of the time it's great, but the 1 march of the time when you're going through a terrible dark time and people come up with a make me laugh deal -- >> well, yeah, my agenda is not the admiration of strangers. i'm an actor, and i love to do this. if you're not in that space, you know, i stayed a little private. for example, i didn't do dave letterman show, you know? but then you kind of are ready. you also have your kids who are watching you and taking the lead from you. that's the important thing. >> marty, we love the idea of

it, you're taking struggle and putting meaning to it. we know you as this successful actor/comedian, you came to the american public through "saturday night live" and the characters like ed grimly. what do we -- that's the title is an ed grimly line "i must say." what do we learn about the comedian, the entertainers. this was a lifelong dream. as a kid you wanted to do this. >> i used to be in my attic at 14, i would pretend to have my own television show. i was on nbc, but every other tuesday night. i had an applause record from sinatra. i would say weatherwise such a cuckoo day, and someone would say dinner. but the secret is no one laughed. my mother was a violinist -- i

recorded an album at 15. you notice, all that, but she would adjudicate it. she would say well sung, a little pitchy. no one was saying get out there and play baseball, you idiot. that's a huge part of how you can guide a kid. >> can we do another segment? >> i can stay all morning. >> we have to talk about jiminy glick. >> you know what he said to mel brooks -- what's your big beef with the nazis? >> oh, my god. will you do more of that when we come back. with more "morning joe." jump-st business with startup-ny. an unprecedented program that partners businesses with universities across the state. for better access to talent, cutting edge research, and state of the art facilities. and you pay no taxes for ten years.

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>> i did one interview, and i must admit it didn't go well. you stormed off. i was upset i had said about mike at keaton his style was very realizic and you go very broad. what's wrong with that? >> i was sensitive. >> and you carried bitterness about that -- you carried bitterness -- >> what do you want me to do. >> just yank my leg. >> boy, this is really a dream come true. >> ouch. >> oh, my god. >> that was just -- if you haven't seen it -- how do you get into that costume. >> it's just a zip-up suit. the makeup is just one piece. >> tell me about your character. is he mean? >> no, he isn't mean. he's a moran with power. >> jiminy glick could have been

in politics. it's just the idea that people have great seats of power and staff who are scared of screwing up the -- but completely moranic. >> is he democrat or republican. >> he absolutely doesn't even vote. he once said to steven spielberg, when are you going to do the big one? the one that connects with the people? he always used to say, the problem with charlie rose is that he listens. >> so jiminy was just self-absorbed. >> where did he come from? >> he was a a neighborhood i had -- the core of it has to be kind of real. there was a neighbor i had growing up, and if you stayed off his lawn, he would let you go to the movies. his voice would go very high and

then very low. even at 8, i thought in i had to remember that. >> we've had grimly and glick. >> i want a little franc talking about the midterm elections. if you were an election analyst, franc analyzing that outcome. >> well, i think that franc would not care who won, but who mass style. like chris christie, i would like to see him run, just to see him run. if he became president, he would be the first oval in the oval office. >> oh, my god -- terrible give my a little jiminy. >> what else do you want to know? >> o. i love -- gee, i love what you were wearing. i wish my fingers would sissors, and snip those straps and release the hostages. >> you asked. >> i got it. the book it -- i've got to say. >> we've got to go. >> requests i must say."

martin short, thank you very much. >> thank guys, i love the show. >> he's everything you dream up and more. you're the best. >> wherever there is injustice, you will find us. wherever there is suffering, we'll be there. tell us we will die like dogs. >> what? >> tell us we will die like dogs. >> you will die like dogs. >> no, we will not die like dogs. we will fight like lions, because we are the three amigos! [ children yelling ]

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the bell with cnbc's michelle caruso-cabrera. michelle? >> oil at $76 a barrel this morning. >> oh, my gosh. >> it continues to get pummelled right now it's at 77, but it's still sharply lower. you know, when this oil slide started a couple weeks ago, it was very basic. world economy week, and we had lots more supply. the laws of supply and demand, you started to see prices go lower. now what's happened is saudi arabia has decided they're going to tolerate lower oil prices. this is very significant. when there's too much supply, they have cut their production so that way there will be less oil in the world and hold up prices. saudi arabia is not doing that this time. instead they have sent a message to the world they can toll rat world at $75 a barrel. why on earth would they do this? obviously they would like prices

higher, you would think. two reasons that have been talked about even though we've gotten no confirmation. one is, would they like to kill the u.s. shale oil boom. it costs us a lot more, somewhere between 75 and $80 is the break-even price to lift a barrel of oil out of the ground, for the saudis, it's less than $30. they don't want to see us produce as much oil. they don't want to lose market share. also, would they like to hurt -- because he's in league with iran. >> thank you, michelle. up next, by the way, falling oil prices hurts isis as well. the oil they sell on the black market. >> what if anything, did we learn today? alright guys. the usual. double wings, extra ranch. we need to do something different. callahan's? ehh, i mean get away, like, away away. road trip?

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hey, why are all those old people lined up at the elementary school? >> the candidates have all said all that can be said and walked back all they can regret having said. >> it's very important -- don't forget to head down to your local polling place and cancel out your dad's vote. very important. welcome back to "morning joe." what did you learn? >> we're headed to columbia to

talk about the elections to a bunch of students. >> thomas, i must say martin short has a way with mika. she's got hostages. >> oh, my god. i think i love him even more. he's really special. >> john heilman, what does it look like for people sitting in front of the tv sets. >> it looks like a glorious day in television. >> democrats or republicans? >> you know, smart money says republicans. >> you have 20 seconds. democrats or republicans, what does tonight look like? >> it looks like no other off-year -- i've never seen so many undercurrents. >> what's your call for the senate? >> 53. if you just look at history and trends, then i would say 53.

that said if the democrats held the senate -- >> 53 is a big night. >> it is a big night, because i don't think there is an in between. democrats either hold or there is a national trend. >> so let me warn you ari melber has serious diva attitudes. you're going into his show. he's going to freak out. if it's way too early. it's "morning joe." now stick around for ari. thanks to the morning joe team there. the object reason i am freaking out is it is election today. happy election day from new york. this is "the daily rundown." as we speak, polls are open across much of the country bringing the end to the most expensive midterm in american history. at stake control