>> in the campaign with a number of big contests still in play. >> running for the u.s. senate. >> i think we will send a message. the road to a majority runs through kansas. >> it's difficult to see you fighting for new hampshire. >> good day at election headquarters. welcome to the coverage that will define the final two years of the obama presidency and determine what is going to happen in statehouses across the country. our team is in place live from the rocky mountains to the atlantic coast. luke russert in iowa and in north carolina and kristin welker in georgia. we begin in kentucky with perry bacon to senate republican leader mitch mcconnell. that's a race we thought would

be closer. the latest polls, what are we seeing on election day? >> not a lot of drama. they believe mcconnell will win the race. it will be surprising if groims won. two things. president obama won only 4 of the 120 counties. we assume grimes will do better. how much better will she do? that will tell us if hillary can campaign here in 2016. what is that going sound like? is that a fiery speech that basically said the republicans necessary command and we are looking to stop obama from governing the last two years. >> thanks so much. perry bacon in louisville and let's move from kentucky to iowa. joni ernst said she is not ready to throw support behind the

current leader? >> do you throw support behind mcconnell? >> i'm not there yet. i have to win an election. >> he is playing it safe not wanting to shake anything else or is she playing ted cruz. >> doesn't want any real connection to washington even to the bitter end. she doesn't want to do that. one selling point is to be able to be conservative and also have an understanding tone. ernst is trying to ride this popular charisma. the first woman to go to the senate. ernst has been a polished with the department of education and in favor of federal minimum

wage. the other days, the turn out operation and braley might be able to squeak one out the last second. looking like the tip of the scales, that's an awful lot of missteps. >> msnbc's benji joins us live where democrats are fighting to hold on to the senate and the governor's race. they admitted that democrats are a little bit behind. >> colorado is turning in by mail. they have been registered democrats. that sounds bad, but here's the thing that has them hopeful. 6.8% voted in 2010. that was the year they famously pulled off an upset even in that

terrible election where senator michael bennett was there and they believe they can lower the margin more. they might have a surprisingly good performance even if it's close. >> thank you very much. and now tonight the results of north carolina's senate race could be an indicator of whether a republican wave will break across the country. live in greensboro, what are you seeing today? this race may depend on black voter turn out. early voting shows black voting is up 45% from 2010. as you see behind me from the all girls college. 200 students showed up. the benle bills. they showed up chanting this is what democracy looks like.

so far we have seen a steady stream. if that's any indication of what may or may not happen, it will be close. >> one of the hottest races in the country. where it could end up in a run off, jimmy carter's grandson is trying to win the governor's seat. michelle nunn has run a strong race. >> she has tried to participate david pure due as an oust touch businessman. he has been flip flopping on out sourcing jobs and i tried to ask him about that last night. he dodged my questions instead

calling it a distraction. he has tried to paint michelle nunn as a candidate who would rubber stamp president obama's policy fist she were sent to washington. she said that's not the case. the one case is the keystone xl pipeline. she said she would support it. this has been a hard fought race between two candidates who have a lot of name recognition in the state. they are both related to political giants as you point out. the big question. will either of them get enough votes to avoid a run off. if they don't. this will go until january. purdue seemed to have the momentum heading into election day. the turn out at this polling place has been is it steady. there seems to be a lot of excitement in this area in atlanta for the mid-term. it's a tough environment for democrats as you pointed out. president obama lot of by eight points in 2012.

>> nbc's kristen welker. what should we look for to get an early fix on the big trends. what are the ten big races we are looking at? >> we are looking at the ten most competitive. let's look at them via the model to give you an idea. the two independents, think of it as 45-45. let's start it off by moving. we have a little bit of a technical difficulty here. this is why we are doing this in the prescenario here. you can see how the spath fairly easy even if kansas does not

come through. if they are both leaning democrats, you have to see four here. i am hearing from iowa more than colorado, but let's go there, we have the long vote in alaska. the difference between you and i standing up between 7:00 in the morning and 3:00 is what we. >> that will tell us, virginia is close, i'm assuming one of them win. i think it's a -- if it was four

or five. >> i would be surprised. they ran out of money and he did have that issue. low turn out in virginia coupled with a surge at the end and this is a national wave. people forget. virginia was the other way. a lean republican state. he got within single digits and no one ever expected him to do ever. it wouldn't be a surprise. >> 36 governor's races, which are you looking at? >> we do. as far as 2016 is concerned. wisconsin and florida are the big prizes. this is the competitive map. essentially half of the governor's races up this year are competitive. this is going to be an odd

potential year. we can see a democratic and in kansas. we can see a democrat lose in connecticut and illinois. there is an anti-status quo status out there. they will tell us if there is a real republican wave or this is anti-incumbent and anti-status quo. >> when you talk about a governor who could lose, that's scott walker if he were to lose who has presidential ambitions as well. big numbers out there. >> i think the person and the race that is not on here that will have the biggest 2016 impact is john casic. no one in 2014 had a better 2014 thinking about running for president than that guy, john casic. his state is not on the map. he will win by double-digits and

maybe over 60%. maybe it completely collapses on the way to his own scandals. you combine the washington experience and he has done this before. the two-term governor and republicans looking for a governor. you can see all of that money and the players that were thinking they wanted a governor. start gravitating for a case. >> you started at the colbert report. let's take a look at that. >> you are genetically energiy engineered for this job. you have the race in your read and know all the players. i wouldn't be surprised if they keep ow a.m. ni on theic fluid and wake up screaming. it looks good for mcconnell! >> he's great. >> i survived. you go in and say oh, boy,

career is on the line. you don't say anything as you saw in the clip. >> final message to be cautious, you can't tell from voter turn out. that's always the number early on. >> nothing worse than this president on election day. >> we don't know. >> i hear turn out happened. >> yes, people are turning out. >> there crowds at my polls. it doesn't mean a thing. >> we will be here all night and all morning. until january 3rd. >> nothing wrong with waiting until we actually count the votes. crazy, i know. >> love you. thank you. >> after the election does the democratic party become the clinton party? david axelrod joins us here. "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. you pay your auto insurance premium

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the man who could become the next majority letter. mitch mcconnell with elaine chow. on this e dekz day, president obama remains at the white house where he has been for most of the campaign. venturing out to the safe states, all the candidates were clamoring for bill clinton. here in new york is analyst david axelrod to president obama in the white house in the campaign. the president who you work so hard for strap down in the white

house rejected allison grimes and even say whether she voted for him. bill clinton, everyone's favorite surrogate. >> one of the peculiarities is that a lot of these are taking place in these deep red states. six states where the democratic senators in which obama lot of by 19 points. he wasn't a popular figure in these states. it has been a turbulent couple of years. obama campaigned to the blue states where he remains popular. it's more likely that in the states where obama went, he will win. where clinton won. just because of the nature. >> clinton campaigned in 43 states and obama went to 7. >> clinton is a popular figure and people have a very warm memory of the years.

he has been out of office and out of fire for all this time. he's a good surrogate at this point. >> is clinton a good role model for president obama in that he and ronald reagan had bad setbacks in their terms with scandal and losing the senate in both cases and got stuff done by reaching out across the aisle. >> i think that's going to be the great challenge for the president. they are elected on a staunch anti-obama platform. could he keep his caucus and say let's get things done. >> before election, how much change do you want to see in president obama's direction.

only 8% said not much change. whether it's his fault or congress's fault, they want to see him reaching out. >> i think that people are tired of gridlock. he got elected on that basis in 2008. as you know, gridlock is one of the top two issues. >> they will impact positively and feel it in their lives. he needs to see what he can get done. that would be to submit to the portion and can't get anything done. he has to test the proposition. >> will he test in the lame duck? should he? unless there is a run off.

would you agree that this is everything? >> your point is if they lot of the senate without the run off, he can push. >> if, for example, there is a run off in louisiana and mary landrieu is not in control, he has an opportunity. the real question is he talked about moving forward. they are resistant to that. what does he do with that order and how does it impact on the relationship with the congress? it's a tough issue. is there votes? >> the issue is that everyone's idea is different. i think infrastructure is

another place. both republicans and democrats recognize the need for a large rebuilding of roads. that would put a lot of people to work. i would think that's another area to agree. >> a shake-up of the white house staff? >> first of all, washington wants you to throw out bodies after a bad election. you will hear that cry, but it has been a turbulent couple of years. it's a natural time to evaluate whether you have all the pieces in place that you need. he should do that. people will leave on their own because six years is a long time. what went wrong or write or what do we need to do to make it successful. >> at happy election day. stay with us after a quick break. how will the results shape the

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republicans if it goes to what point does it become historic? >> 13 takes republicans to a post world war ii era where you have to get 35 to get to herbert hoover and that's not going to happen, but there is a fair chance of 13. when democrats lot of 63 seats in 2010 and only got eight of them back in 2012. you can't lose a seat you don't have and that you already lost. >> the generic ballot is 1645 as to whom you would like. republicans or democrats to control congress. >> i'm a fan of the generic ballot test. in a year where there about 35 or 40 races, out of 1,000 introduce nationwide, 100 are in

those district ofs. >> a quick lesson on why polls don't matter. the republicans out there, crews, rubio, rand paul will drive mitch mcconnell crazy. >> i think some people will hate to hear this if you live in florida or iowa or new hampshire. you have seen a lot of ads. the truth is in the next two weeks to a month, the 2016 campaign that has been going on which you documented, martin o'malley, outgoing governor of maryland has been there a ton. that race which is kind of behind the scenes and not for

people like this that followed all the time will break much more into the public light. they will lean much more forward. you might have this week, but they can disagree with you. within the next few weeks, maybe before we get to thanksgiving or after, you see you make clear what they are planning. >> you told them that he wouldn't commit to supporting if mitch mcconnell is reelected. he wouldn't commit. that said he will be a bomb thrower throughout. what does it mean for hillary clinton if you have a republican senate potentially and more obstruction in washington. does it make her more of an outsider and make her look more

of the reasonable politician? not part of the fray. >> it will make her want to be an outsider. who would be wanting the gridlock? washington. that is the fact that a lot of those moderate democrats in the senate are endangered. you will have a caucus that is more uniformly liberal. the party is being pulled to the left. you talked to activists on there and those are the issues that generated the most enthusiasm. you will see if you see the republican party pull to the right after tonight's elections, you will see the party pull to the left. >> that's why that apparent in massachusetts started talking

against wall street against where she has been. the source of her funding and the state that she represented and the financial capital of the world. it seemed inauthentic because she had to revert back. >> she has a calm of tight ropes to walk. where does she stand on issues like regulating wall street and what is her relationship with president obama? how closely does she want to be tied to president obama who she served as his secretary of state. these are issues we will be watching closely forever in the hillary clinton race we hope to be covering. >> and only because it's so much fun without having a stake in any of these candidates. the governor's races with without any democrat, whether they are a democrat or republican.

florida, wisconsin and michigan. . >> i would argue that having a governor in your corner in a general election doesn't mean that so much except of course florida 2000. that's a really, really dig deal. it's who are these tom wolfs in pennsylvania likely to get elected. how would he lineup in a clinton race? that's a very, very big deal. the governor's races are hugely important. >> the only major one as chuck todd was pointing out is casic. >> yes. >> casic is going to be a top name in terms of outside

washington. >> charlie cook, the best there is. talking of the best, chris alyssa and susan paige. >> with chris alyssa, an alum. >> a learned from the best. that's what i say. i learn from the best. >> we are proud of chris. >> thank you all so much. up next, what does today's election mean for the final two years of the obama pedestrian? anita dunn and michael steele joining me next. tell us on twitter, instagram and facebook using msnbc vote@mitchell reports. alright, so this tylenol arthritis lasts 8 hours, but aleve can last 12 hours... and aleve is proven to work better on pain than tylenol arthritis. so why am i still thinking about this? how are you? aleve, proven better on pain.

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senate and how would the white house adjust. anita dunn is the director for president obama. michael steele, analyst and former republican national chairman. anita, what if the republicans win? what will the president do? >> i assume the president will govern the last two years, but if the republicans control both houses in congress, it is a different equation. it will be as much in the republicans' interest to work with the president for the first time in six years as the president's to work with congress. i think that what you will see are looking for areas where there is bipartisan agreement and areas where there is a fight. >> will he reach across the aisle and bring them in and do things that are more social and personal? that has been the big rap on him from democratic chairs who said we don't talk to him and he talked to me twice in six years and never been to camp david. he hasn't used the golf course.

he hasn't used the tools of office to reach out and embrace him and try to bring them into his world. >> i am from the school that said that he could have had mitch mcconnell over for a glass of wine or can of beer and it wouldn't have made any difference whatsoever. i am saying what's really important for both the republicans and for the president will be to figure out a way to demonstrate to the american people that they have gotten the message of this election. work on our areas and not your own. >> what do you do if you are y trying to work for you. they are a climate denier. you have a burve of loose cannons. >> hoary does. the members who are coming in

will make it interesting for majority leader and to your point it's the administration with the white house. he has to reach out to him. he has got on this other side and has to develop a relationship with the house. the better stronger relationship with house members than mcconnell does. that will be a really interesting dance for him. he has to figure that out for him. >> saying at this stage he doesn't know with whom he would caucus. park are there so many ideological differences. >> major differences. >> how can you not know whether you are in favor of obamacare or repealing obamacare? there too many differences

between senate republicans and democrats to say you will decide after the election? is that not wanting to be with the winner? >> if you look at my stances on the issues, we have been clear about a lot of things and some cases i agree more with the republican position on issues. > . >> i think if he defeeds them, they will want to get an unlisted phone number because he's a popular person. >> he had has leverage. >> as will the other members. let's not forget if we had the 2016 map this year in 2014, we would not be talking about losing the senate. we might be talking about picking up seats. he has challenges not the least of which will be trying to figure out what to do with the independent senators whether he can woo them or get them to cross the aisle. he will have a narrow margin if they gain control. i don't think that's a subtle thing.

going to the cooperation, i couldn't agree with michael moore. it is up to the president to figure out how to work with someone you cent six years demonizing and billions of dollars and how do you go to the caucus and the voters and say you do need to work with them. >> they have to prove they can govern. >> that are is the magic word and it has been absent from this conversation for over a year. i think it's one of the strongest points they will have to make after tonight. with the majority, we can govern. i don't think you do that by leading off with poison pills. whether it's obamacare or impeachment or the country. they will want more. >> let me play a little of what

david axelrod that he needs to have an injection of new blood. >> it's also been a turbulent couple of years. a lot of them has been there from the beginning. it's a natural time to evaluate if you have the pieces in place and he should do that. >> agree? >> i think after every two-year has been in office. you have seen changes and it's a natural thing. you might want to tweak your team. the president doesn't throw people out for the sake of saying he did it. >> thank you both so much. speaking of long nights, rachel maddow talks about the money spent on these ads which jimmy fallon had fun with. >> i grew up cast rating hogs on

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uhh... um... hold on. introducing the all-new volkswagen golf. plenty of room for whatever life throws at you. with a 4 billion a b dollar price tag, the mid-terms are the most expensive in history. in north carolina, kay hang in spends $80 million in their contest running more than 100,000 ads with parties and outside groups. joining me here in new york is the one and only rachel maddow, host of the rachel maddow show and anchor of tonight's election coverage with chris matthews. the money being spent here is not just that it's money and we don't know where it's coming

from, a lot of it is not candidate money, but independent money. it's all coordinated behind the scenes. it suffocates individual expression and that you have a say. >> 100,000 ads. what's the diminishing utility? the marginal utility of each ad? all you are doing is -- i think we talk a lot about people getting disgust and exhausted by the amount of them, but what's important is that you squeeze out the opportunity for other people with less money to participate or people with no money to get into the conversation. you end up essentially exhausting the opportunity for anybody ems to get in. literally every ad in the state is bought. i think that's tough in terms of people feeling cynical about whether or not they are getting real information about the candidates. >> it's such a tune out for people who might otherwise be

interested. it makes people feel less connected to the voting process. it drives them into absurdity. it will grab people's attention and drives people towards extreme allegations. the goofier stuff that can be fun. this is the stuff that turned into a horo movie in terms of the ads. the hazmat and the allegations about using ebola as a weapon and the kind of stuff that has been out there has has to grab people by the throat if it stands out at all. >> or the castration of hogs. >> a different part of the body. >> the singular most effective or memorable or horrible. >> it stands out. >> it propelled her into being nationally recognized as someone -- joni ernst and i are talking about bruce braley as

competitive and tough. >> that are ad got picked up as a human interest story. look at this wacky thing in iowa. that's not the coverage that you want as a contender, but it got her name out at the same time that she got a huge dump truck full of money dumped on her by the groups affiliated with the coke brothers. she has been open about this and talked to the groups about how they are the only ones who made her viable and gave her the name recognition and they were nowhere until they dumped all the monoher. they talked about the ads that are the direct result. the ads and the money and the others can be the difference between the candidate and an afterthought and the contender. >> the names, there is no way that anyone not immersed in data would understand who these people are. council for america job growth

in arkansas. horizon and alliance for a free society. american future political funds. reading some of these names. they are really not known to any of us. not even the mainstream groups. >> why put a name on it given that it tells you nothing. who they stand for and where they are going to be after this election is over. my favorite was richmond, california. the chevron refineries. richmond is taking a strong interest in the local elections. then chevron formed a group called richmond working families for jobs. even if you were using the names to figure out where the spending and the advocacy would be, you can coupeicate where it confusions everybody. it's about bam boozeling everybody. part other thing that is impossible to catch up with is voter fraud, allegations and

voter suppression. the long lines and the fact that voting machines are often not in minority districts. the justice department has 18 states that are looked at. they have teams of lawyers and it's too little, too late. i have the most heart feel about it. we are seeing anonymous groups spending $200 million or $4 bill kron overall in terms of elections while americans look at congress with disdain and disgust and they don't want to vote and have contempt for congress. almost in a technical sense. approval ratings are under 10%. you have the money and the public not caring and the place where that line breaks down that can make you upset and sad.

you go to election day and see people on saturday in north caroline waiting three hours to vote. trying to get through the voter id maze that the state put in their way. people are willing to put up with it. and it destroys cynicism and we are a democracy in our heart and willing to go through it if we need to. >> thank you so much rachel maddow. >> i will be joining rachel with our special picks at 6:00 p.m. eastern with rachel maddow and chris matthews. final thoughts on this election day on this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." tell us what you think on

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as rachel and i were saying, the most important thing is vote. if you haven't, do it now. make it count. stay with us all night here on msnbc as we bring you the latest results. that does it for "andrea mitchell reports." tomorrow we will break it down and the results with chuck todd. follow us online on facebook and twitter@mitchell reports. my colleague joining us with what's coming up next. happy election day. >> terrific show today. we have a big show up ahead as well. we are providing an antidote to the partisanship on the hill and an all-star panel each on the right and the left. we have a rising star in castro and a slew of others on the

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>> welcome and happy election day, everybody. the polls are open in the longest most expensive and talked about mid-term in our history. america remembers it's a democracy. have you voted today? if you wonder whether it's worth it? spoiler alert, yes. this is what the senate looks like today depending on whether it shakes down, the senate could go republican. key states can tip from blue to red. from kentucky iowa to north carolina, democratic candidates are in the fights of their

political lives. stumping for every last vote. >> louisville, are you ready to lead this state and bring it home? >> we are going to show our state and we are going to show our nation that grass roots efforts can triumph out of state billionaires who are trying to buy this seat. >> we are surging and we have momentum. >> together we can make a difference for the next six years in iowa. >> a sweeping on the ground view with the biggest races in the country. tre main in north carolina and suze kim is in georgia. all hot rhyses. kentucky is a blue grass battle royal and could determine the future leadership of the