will he survive the scandal? all right. good morning, thanks for getting up with this on this the first saturday of the year 2015. people waking up this morning to some tragic news but also in a way an incredible story out of kentucky. a 7-year-old girl not only surviving a plane crash last night she actually walked away from it. she showed up on the doorstep of a resident in the local woods nearby asking for help. the local police sergeant reporting, quote, this girl came

out of the wreckage herself and found the closest residence and reported the plane crash. kentucky resident who opened his door to the 7-year-old survivor spoke this morning to msnbc's frances rivera. >> she'd walked about 23 three-quarters of a mile in woods that in 2008 we had an ice storm here and knocked down a lot of trees and this wood had never been cleaned up. i wouldn't want to walk through that woods after dark. >> now, unfortunately the four other people who were on board that plane were killed. that were the girl's parents and a sister and also a cousin. investigators from the national transportation safety board are expected at the crash site this morning. going to bring you more on this plane crash as we learn all the details this morning. on the condition of that little girl as well as we learn more. there is also a big development this morning in the

search for the wreckage of the air asia crash in the java sea. we'll have a live update in just a little bit. but for now we want to start this morning with the continuing fallout from the week's biggest story in politics that speech that the third ranking republican in the house gave to a group of white supremacist. the controversy of steve scalise's 2002 speech is hanging over the capitol as law makers prepare to return for the new session. republicans are now in full control of both chambers on capitol hill. many democrats and even some republicans are calling on scalise to give up his leader. post or to be forced out but john boehner among other republicans is scanneding by scalise who insists he had no idea about the european american unity rights organization's racial views or its connections to david duke when he spoke before it and he simply delivered his standard stump speech about state budget issues when he gave the speech.

he said it was an error in judgment on scalise's part and he said he's a man of high integrity and good character. gene robinson of "the washington post" called it a familiar page from the republican playbook. he said whatever scalise's feelings might have in his heart, he was signaling to avowed ralesists that he welcomed their support. joining me to talk about all of this we have bake seth the columnist and politic editor at salon and republican nan heyworth and the senior congressional reporter at talking points memo. you would think this is the slowest week in politics every week the week between christmas and new year's but we have a genuine controversy and you might call it a scandal just as congress is getting ready to come back. i want to talk about the circumstances of this scalise speech in 2002. the story he's telling and i'm just curious what you guys make of it because his version of event is basically, look i was

a state legislator in 2002. i didn't necessarily have this sort of army of staffers around me to check invitations and things i was going to any group that would invite me to talk about the state budget. i had the same presentation to every group. i had an invitation to days inn's and i went and i had no idea what the nature of the group and i find out my god, it's terrible. do you beauuyou beau that explanation? >> i know steve scalise personally. i admire steve. he's been a great public servant in the house of representatives. i never heard and, you know, i've been behind the scenes with steve scalise. i was there for two years. never heard a hint of any indication that he would harbor a philosophy that would be close to those that we all do. we reject any racist argument racist rhetoric. and certainly if he -- i feel

that if steve had been truly aware of what this group apparently was about and if he actually spoke with them there was some question i know whether or not, in fact that was the group with which he spoke. there was some question about whether or not there was a different meeting at the same venue. >> the reporting from "the times" said there was -- there was a main conference of this group that was being held in europe at the time and david duke was at this main conference and this was sort of a satellite thing and it was a workshop -- >> right. >> -- for organizers but it still was very connected at least according to the reporting at the time. >> i think more details obviously remain to be revealed. but certainly i have no reason not to believe steve when he says look i didn't know who this group was or what they were about. i talked about issues that i talk about with anybody. i didn't endorse or explicitly endorse any philosophy.

i've seen no indication throughout his term in congress that he's been anything other than a fine servant to everybody he serves. >> my theory is a bit different. i think it's hard to imagine that someone in louisiana politics at that time didn't know who david duke was. i think most people following national politics outside of louisiana knew who he was and what he was about. but i do agree with the congresswoman i think it's highly unlikely that steve scalise gave a speech to this group because he shares everyview that they have. that's not the argument that i think most people are making so i think he knew what he was doing. probably was fully unaware of the politic circumstances and ramifications that come from doing that. keep in mind he's from a very conservative part of louisiana. the republican party has made -- has relied on white voters very much, very conservative white voters as part of their appeals. if you reach out to these voters by direct mail instead of going to speak at their event? i suppose it is. but there are gradations to all of this. >> that's part of this story,

too, it's fascinating to look back at that period in louisiana politics and david duke's role in it. he beat a sitting governor in a prynaryimary to run for governor. he'd run for congress three years before this speech in 2002. he missed the runoff by 3,700 votes and the republican governor in louisiana in the 1990s mike foster actually paid for -- i think he paid $150,000 to have the david duke mailing list so david duke had a constituency of voters in louisiana who if you were an ambitious politician particularly a republican politician whatever you thought of david duke these voters were important to you. >> i think that's exactly the context that you have to look at this in. david duke was a major player in louisiana politics. think how much things have changed. i'm skeptical that steve scalise didn't know what the impact was. i believe he didn't share the views of the organization. he now represents the most conservative district in louisiana, we're talking really really deep south.

i'm sure he knew the impact of what he was doing and it suggests a change in context of how louisiana has changed and national politics have changed and at this point this is utterly unacceptable to do right now. the dilemma for the republican leadership whether he force him out or stay. there's no win for them unless the story goes away. as long as you keep talking about it it's a bad situation. the calculus the story will go on and be a prolonged embarrassment. >> this is easier politically. >> and they need him. he was brought into leadership for two reasons. there was a lot of demand for a solid red state member in leadership. all the other are from blue states that president obama won twice. the second reason is speaker boehner wanted a liaison to the ultraconservative wing of the party. he understands them and been voting with them many times. and he's been successful getting bills through despite long odds. >> david duke my god, it's been

15 years since he's j in the news probably for good reason. but he spoke to "fusion" as he got involved. his quote if scalise is going to be crucified, if republican want to throw steve scalise to the woods then a lot of them better be looking over his shoulders and he add he wasn't afraid to release a list of names of politicians he's connected to. he's saying there's more steve scalises out there. >> wouldn't it be funny if david vitter was on that list trying to survive all the other things. a lot of this is about optics and theater. let's be honest the republican party particularly in louisiana and the conservative district that he serves in this is part of who you reach out to. there are people who are on -- these white people on the fringe, they do vote. these are people being appealed to. again, i make this point he spoke to this group and there's a big backlash as there should be but there are all the other appeals made to the voters. you have to wonder where's the line it becomes unacceptable to

do these things and where is the line -- >> where is it morally if somebody is on a david duke mailing list or supporter list. if somebody is willing to put their name behind somebody who is the grand wizard of the ku klux klan there's a big mailing list i want the votes. but on the other hand i don't want those votes. at some point there's a line here. >> there's a big lesson in this how much things have changed. in 2002 he obviously thought assuming he understood what he was doing i think he thought it would be a net benefit and now it's clearly now. >> it's both sides of the aisle and, you know, number one, we also don't know what did steve scalise say to this group, you know, did he -- >> right. >> -- did he address anything other than -- >> right. he says it's just the budget. >> right. you know and also he contends that he really didn't know exactly what they were about, that if he's not being truthful

about that and, you know, steve has always been an honest guy in my experience, he's not being truthful about that that's going to be bad. but look what happened with president obama with jeremiah wright there was legitimate controversy there about whether or not he was implicitly endorsing very divisive form of rhetoric from the reverend wright because he attended that congregation for many years, you know not just one session with them but repeatedly over and over. and, you know, these are things that we do need to address as a nation, you know, there is a difference between propounding a line of rhetoric that is divisive, that is hateful, that all of us should reject and to to -- listening to the national debate including, you know, all its aspects because, of course we do have a first amendment and have been is allowed to have a voice so it's healthy that we're having this discussion.

it's a very good discussion to have. >> it's also one of the interesting things it happens in 2002 and it ends up taking things to the wonders of the internet people find an arp kive in 2002 and it becomes a story in 2015. jeb bush in 2015 he's declined now, this is interesting, an invitation to speak at the iowa freedom summit in des moines. that's an event sponsored by the right wing steve king the republican gathering is still scheduled to include everyone from chris christie to done always trump as you may have heard. and jeb bush has resigned his corporate and nonprofit board membership and that's something he'd have to do if he wants to run for president. this steve king thing is interesting. he's so far right and divisive as it comes when it comes to immigration. the republican's parties partying about reaching out to

immigration and steve king represents those. jeb bush said if you want to run for president you have to lose the primary to win the general election. what exactly does that mean. i think this is an example of that. this is the kind of thing you turn down at your own peril in the primary to make a bigger statement. >> sure. the other thing to think about with jeb bush if you look at what his route of victory potentially is. he's the pick of the establishment, big business big donors, right? these are the people that willpower him through and help him last through a long time as you go through the various states. those people are a pretty pro-immigration reform constituency so for him to go back and buck one of his big constituentsies here by spouting far right immigration stuff that he doesn't believe in could be politically detrimental to him as well. there's some sort of moral principle that he's exercising. >> i'm saying it's a political calculation. >> he's making a rational a logical decision about who he

wants to win over and jeb bush realizes he can't win every constituency. he's not playing with the tea party. his numbers with the tea party are worse than mitt romney's comparable. he'll have to be pro-immigration to win a general election and he can't compete with ted cruz or rand paul or rick perry in iowa. >> look at the story we were just talking about with steve scalise. governor bush it seems is looking into the future and saying, do you know what if we are to be judged by those with whom we associate in any form i am not going to be part of this gathering because there is nothing that i will gain from this. i implicitly and inherently disagree with the host. and whatever the exchange may be i'm not going to be associated with this. >> it's interesting because that was one of the things that people took from the romney experience in 2012 the republicans said in the primary he was so nervous about being outflanked on his right. there wasn't anything he

wouldn't to do to try to convince the right wing, it's okay, be with me. this is not the kind of step that mitt romney would have taken in 2012. and it's interesting that jeb bush may be learning this interestingly. there's another funeral for one of the slain nypd officers and all the politics that have come in. will the officers or turn their backs on the mayor who will be there as well.

later today new york city bill de blasio will pay his respects to the second nypd officer shot and killed last month in brooklyn. he and new york city police commissioner william bratton will attend a viewing for lieutenant wenjian liu and he'll be at detective liu's funeral tomorrow and bratton has asked nypd officers who will also be

there not to turn their backs when the mayor appears. this was the scene one week ago when hundreds of officers turned their backs on the mayor as he attended the funeral for officer rafael ramos. it shows the growing tension between the officers and the mayor. meanwhile, those protesters may be having another effect on the police department. according to "the new york post" arrests have fallen by 66% in the week after liu and ramos' deaths. this compared to the same week last year. that sharp decline was mostly for minor offenses. the apparent work action that's what those statistics suggest is bringing blowback to the nypd including from "the new york post" which is normally a fierce advocate for the police. "the post" writing in an editorial to, quote, ignore crime even low-level offenses only encourages disorders and invites a return to the bad old days. people of new york have a right to expect their city police and their laws enforced so a lot going on obviously.

start with this basic question of the relationship between de blasio and the police. the night of these shootings now two weeks ago obviously you had the union chief of the police saying blood on the hands of the mayor and the police turning their backs on the mayor at the hospital and the scenes at the funeral last week. what's our sense heading into this weekend? are things calming down a little bit now? now you have the police commissioner saying don't do this, do we think it's going to calm down and be a little bit different or same story? >> i think it's important to step back and look at the history. before the terrible shootings happened there was tremendous tension between the police department and de blasio. he ran on reforming the stop and frisk policy which is a lot of the rank-and-file officers were fine with. it was a reform nypd campaign and he ran against ray kelly metaphorically metaphorically. when new york city was trying to get the convention bid one of the police unions took out a full page ad saying is the bad

old days are coming back don't come and do your dnc here in new york and that was part of a better contract to negotiate a better contract with de blasio there's a lot going on here despite the tragic shootings to say it's going to calm down or anytime soon belies the fact there's a lot going on here. in terms of the next steps, what's coming up i think the nypd risks overplaying their hand a little bit. to the extent you have "the new york post" and the "daily news" tabloids that have been pro-cop in dispute dating back to the giuliani days and bloomberg that suggests to me the work slowdown which is basically what the protesters wanted the slowdown where you have the low-level offenses not being -- not having arrests for that is actually just what the protesters want so there's a lot of weird politics going on but to get to the point of your question de blasio has met with the unions in recent days. that's the start to trying to get this conversation going but it's not going to be an easy thing that magically gets solved. >> what do you think of the

mayor in all this, nan? the relationship between the mayor and the police there's a lot of history to this before all of this is playing out now but in terms of how he's handling it right now and what he should be doing right now, what's your read on it? >> i think the mayor's initial response did set up unfortunately, an opportunity for this kind of adversarial dialogue. his job really is to understand that the public has to be served by its police force and the police department in turn has to be respected for the risk that they do undertake every day to enforce laws that they may indeed find to be laws with which they would not necessarily agree. i mean eric garner god rest the man's soul was selling loose cigarettes.

that's not something probably that the nypd would like to focus its efforts on. but it's the mayor's job to be that moral leader in the dialogue. and his comments immediately following the -- the grand jury's failure to bring an indictment and the -- and, of course, you know, the terrible death of mr. garner to begin with implied that he was perhaps seeing an adversarial relationship where there is not one. >> well i think what blake says about the history feeds the news so much. there's so many built-in sensitivities on both sides of this. everybody certainly i think on the police side is listening to the mayor very carefully when he says these things and maybe he thinks he says things that he doesn't intend and they say things they don't intend and anything is costly in a spillover like this. we'll see how it plays out this

weekend and hopefully there's progress from where we were last weekend. we'll see the panel later on this show. lots more ahead this hour including the next move from the very outspoken and maybe even controversial pope francis. we'll have all the details on that. later 2014 was a very good year for stephen colbert with an even promising very different 12 months ahead. we'll head over to the big board to see if we can find out what 2015 holds for them and other potential newsmakers. these ally bank ira cds really do sound like a sure thing but i'm a bit skeptical of sure things. why's that? look what daddy's got... ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!! growth you can count on from the bank where no branches equals great rates.

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ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain; it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. side effects include headache, flushing, upset stomach and abnormal vision. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. stop taking viagra and call your doctor right away if you experience a sudden decrease or loss in vision or hearing. ask your doctor about viagra. when president obama announced a major shift in america's relationship with cuba just before christmas, among the first people he thanked was a religious leader. >> in particular i want to thank his holiness pope francis whose moral example shows us the importance of pursuing the world as it should be rather than simply settling for the world as it is. >> this is only the latest

example of the out-size influence pope francis is playing in global politics. "the guardian" newspaper reporting that climate change will be one of the pope's major points of emphasis in 2015 with a rare letter directly to the world's bishops and priests on the importance of the issue as well as meetings with faith leaders and politicians from around the world when the u.n. general assembly meets this coming september. pope francis is transforming how millions of americans particularly liberal americans look at the church in his new year's mass he began the year with a powerful condemnation of slavery in huchlen trafficking. in april he tweeted about income disparity, quote inequality is the root of social evil. in october francis seemed to nudge the church toward more acceptance of gay people and their children not to mention unmarried couples and people who have divorced. the pope's politics might also be changing how conservatives look at the church. the head hein in "the hill" newspaper declared, quote, pope

francis drives a wedge between the catholic church and the gop. pope francis says he wants to visit the united states this year. how will he be received if he does that by the left and by the right? joining me from boston this morning is ray flynn. he's the former mayor of boston also the former u.s. ambassador to the holy city and in washington sister simone campbell the executive director at network a national catholic social justice lobby. mayor flynn, mrs. ambassador. it's been more than a year now. the end of 2014 comes with the pope playing a major role on the issue of cuba an opening between the united states and cuba. i guess my big-picture question about the pope has this been surprising to you? hos it beenhas it been surprising that this people he has been this active and this influential in global politics? >> he brings a unique perspective to the papacy. he's a very humble man and he's not afraid to speak out and he has a skill in communicating

with people and his availability. those are all good trademarks that make a good communicator. but in your summary of pope francis' year steve, i think it's very important to point out that pope francis is neither conservative or liberal. and i know that politicians and the media try to make something of that to define him. but his policies are traditional catholic social teaching. his position on inequality income inequality, is consistent with the catholic church. his position in fighting for social and economic justice is consistent with the catholic church. so really nothing has changed except that he has a unique and a great ability to communicate and he's not afraid to speak out. but connell temporarytrary to a lot of opinion there's not going to be significant changes in

traditional catholic teaching. it's a -- it's a way he goes about it that makes people feel comfortable and people feel that they're engaged, they're involved that they're welcome back into the catholic church. >> that's an interesting point. and, sister simone i wonder what you make of that. to judge by the political reaction that the pope has sort of engendered in the united states there are certainly many liberals who have spoken up and said wow, maybe i'm a lambsed catholic or i had a negative opinion of the church and that's changed and i've seen plenty of conservatives who have spoken up and said wow, maybe this pope isn't what i'm expecting. do you agree with what ambassador flynn is saying, though? >> he's absolutely correct. it has been this what cardinal bernadine of chicago about two decades ago called the seamless garment. but i think what's really important is pope francis, one, comes from the western hemisphere so he knew the cuban reality. he had connections with the hierarchy in cuba so he had a

different entree into that situation. and the second thing is he's extremely clear that government has a positive role to play in protecting the least and the most vulnerable and he's really challenging governments to stand up and to do the hard work that they're called to do. that is using catholic social teaching which we usually keep on a shelf. it's putting it front and center and saying we need to do hard work of taking care of those who are left out. that's the change and emphasis i think. >> i'm curious, too, about, you know, the pope sort of called this conference late in the year, late last year ambassador, on the family in rome. and made some news in terms of it seemed he was trying to nudge the church on issues of acceptance of homosexuality, the status of divorced catholics. it seemed he was nudging the church towards more acceptance there. is that something you expect to see more of in 2015? >> steve, i think sister's

absolutely right in terms of his consistent commitment for social and economic justice and for poverty and income inequality. the other thing is steve, i think we should take note of the fact that the world -- the world -- is in turmoil in many cases. not just politically but cultural as well so these are all just look at the middle east. the persecution of christians there. the killing and onslaught of christians in the middle east. the relationship among nations. even racially right here in the united states. the pope is going to come to the united states in a few months and he's going to be dealing with -- he's going to be addressing these kind of issues i'm certain. so, the sworldworld is in turmoil, in chaos. so these issues are on his table. i don't think the world has been experiencing this kind of turmoil since the second world war. i would even include the vietnam war. that's why he's making such profound statements that get a lot of media attention.

particularly when you don't have -- when you see -- neither party, neither political party in the united states has a solid position on a lot of these issues. they're indecisive. but pope francis speaks with a moral tone. not a political tone necessarily. sometimes that gets confused. but it's a moral tone that makes him unique in the world. and, look he has a great relationship with religious leaders, jewish leaders and people across the world. that is very very welcome. and it's absolutely necessary. i think that holds the key. uniting the religious leaders of the world to bring about peace in the world. >> on that issue, though, sister, of social change in the church status of divorcedstatus of gay catholics. >> what the pope is focusing on is dialogue and welcoming. that all are welcomed at the

table and i think that shift is really important. there will be less legislative changes but in the second session of the sinod in the fall i would really expect some furthering of the welcoming. he says that dialogue is key and that if you don't have everyone at the table then you can never create peace. and i think that's exactly what he's trying to do here get everyone to the table. all of those, all of us have some flaws, some sin, and so we're welcomed together to create a community. that's what he's about. >> all right, my thanks to former boston mayor and former ambassador to the vatican, ray flynn, and sister simone appreciate you both getting up this morning. what could be the big break for the asia air plane crash, the late of the from indonesia. that's next. and later trying to feend out if a really good burger can feed more than just your appetite. [ narrator ] mama sherman and the legion of super fans. wow! [ narrator ] on a mission to get richard to his campbell's chunky soup. it's new chunky beer-n-cheese with beef

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well a major development just moments ago when the search for the missing air asia jetliner. we've got the latest. >> reporter: steve search and rescue officials announced today they found four large objections on the seafloor. they're about 90 feet down. they've been battling high waves to operate a couple of remote cameras under water trying to get a better look at these objects. one of them is 30 feet long and 15 feet wide. now, the head of search and rescue for indonesia said he's confident all four of these pieces of wreckage are, in fact from the air asia plane although it's not clear which part of the plane they're looking at just yet. searchers did recover -- bring more bodies to shore, however, did not recover any bodies today. the total stands at 30 with 4 people identified. the ceo and founder of air asia tony fernandez attended the

funeral for one of those people a flight attendant who worked for his company for just under two years. at the same time his airline is coming under scrutiny, again, all flights to singapore have been grounded all air asia flights, that is because of some sort of permitting issue. the indonesian government says they're looking in to all of the scheduled flights for air asia to singapore at this point. air asia said they're aware of these groundings and they are cooperating with the investigation. steve, back to you. >> all right, thanks for that report. another full hour and a half of news and politics still ahead this morning including names you may not be thinking of as potential newsmakers in 2015. names you may hear a lot about this year. the man who could have been barack obama before barack obama was barack obama. stay with us.

all right. new year same big board. we thought we'd put it to use to start off 2015 by looking at some of the people some of the newsmakers, who we expect are going to be making a lot of news in 2015. some obvious names here maybe some not so obvious names here. we thought we would give you a preview of 2015 big board style. let's get to it. who do we have george and amal clooney. why do we think they'll be making a lot of news this year? not just for supermarket tabloid stuff, amal represents julian assange and political activism and george clooney outspoken with the sony issue at the end of last year. you put them together it's not tabloid news they'll be making real news. how about this larry wilmore, stephen colbert, you know their faces obviously. wilmore going to be taking over for colbert. big story is the big late night

shuffle playing out. we'll talk about it a little bit more in the show but who will stephen colbert now that he's not the stephen colbert character anymore and larry wilmore sliding into the colbert slot what kind of political show will he be doing in the 11:30 slot. how about joanie ernst, you remember her very well from the election, the candidate who won in iowa the senate race out there, well she will be a big player in 2015 because every republican who wants to be president of the united states is going to be out in iowa. a lot in 2015 and she's probably going to be the most coveted endorsement any republican presidential candidate could have so joni ernst will be a very powerful figure in 2015. very prominent in 2015 in her home state and washington. how about this guy? this is mr. paul fishman. paul fishman is the united states attorney for new jersey. united states attorney for new jersey could be very big in the news in 2015 because of bridgegate. there was a report from the wnbc reporter brian thompson we had

him on this show a couple weeks ago, his report the indictments could be coming maybe six indictments and maybe more. indictments in that lane closure scheme on the george washington bridge in late 2013. the indictments he said could be coming in january of 2015. well ladies and gentlemen, it's january of 2015. so let's keep a close eye on paul fishman and his office this month. ruth bader ginsburg a very big story because one of the oldest member of the supreme court right now. a liberal member of the supreme court. if president obama were to be replaced by a republican in 2016, and ruth bader ginsburg were there to retire there's the potential of the supreme court seat slipping to a conservative so democrats very worried about, you know, when is she going to retire. if it's in this year if it's in the next two years, how will the new republican senate handle it. obviously this is not a news story necessarily, it's a continuation. how about this? this is not a person. this is a group of people.

internet hackers we're talking about here and obviously internet hackers were the story of december with "the interview" with sony and all those threats. was it north korea obviously the united states government thinks it was north korea behind it but, of course, the real story here that could be the preview of the kind of disruption that internet hackers could be wreaking in the year ahead. how about lebron james? lebron james previously just a major nba superstar. he got a little bit more political in the year 2014. lebron james, of course he had the i can't breathe t-shirt in december after that decision not to indict the officer in the garner death. also he vowed to boycott the nba if donald stern were to hold on to his ownership of the clippers earlier in the year. he also made a very powerful statement by going back to his hometown of cleveland. he'd gone to miami. he went home to cleveland. unfortunately it's not working out that great right now. the cavs are struggling. lebron will be sidelined for the first part of 2015 but lebron

james getting political makes him a little bit more of an interesting figure going forward i think for our purposes. mitch mcconnell, you know about mitch mcconnell as republicans taking over the senate. his lifelong dream to be the majority leader of the senate. he's 72 years old and he gets to realize his dream. he said he's going to make the senate work again. let's see. he's got his majority and chance and let's see if mitch mcconnell can make that happen. and, of course, vladimir putin you know all about vladimir putin, all of the sort of trouble he's gotten himself into. the controversy he stirred, but vladimir putin himself getting into a bit of trouble on the domestic front in russia the economy suddenly in big trouble. the sanctions may be having an effect. the question can his popularity in russia survive. what's going on right now. so that's -- and, of course, one more name we want to give you for 2015, bonlean ki-moon secretary-general of the u.n. 2015 is a big year for climate

change. he scheduled you can see the big climate change conference he scheduled for later this year. we'll hear a lot about that as it approaches climate change and ban ki-moon and obviously something to keep an eye on in 2015. that's our unofficial tour of newsmakers for 2015. we thought we would take you through it. why john boehner shouldn't get to comfortable as he starts his third term as house speaker. stay with us.

we discussed at the tom of the show house speaker john boehner already dealing with his first big headache of the year majority whip steve scalise the third ranking republican in the house admitted he once spoke to a white supremacist group. on tuesday john boehner stood up for scalise but there may be something else at play here, too.

at the start of the new session boehner needs to worry about his hold on the republican conference especially when two years ago a surprising number of conservatives withheld their votes on the floor in the election for speaker. it turned out there will be a full fledged coup attempt one that fell apart hours before the vote. this year he seems to have a lot more breathing room but that threat will always be there. as for scalise he has a lot of allies is youspicious ofy sies suspicious in the first place. back now here at the table to discuss we have nan hayworth, sahill kapoor starting with you, reporting day to day i don't get the sense that john boehner is seriously in trouble of losing the vote for speaker this week but at the same time there were all those defections two years ago. we talked about it at the top of the show. you were saying, you know, a lot of these scalise is the face of the base in the leadership, so he has to be extra delicate in

how he handles somebody who is important to the base. i guess in a way maybe this is a preview of what he's got -- of sort of the balancing act he has to have for the next two years. >> he's not in trouble for the speakership election but he is constantly, you know, looking over himself shoulder to make sure that he's in the clear. at this point he has more breathing room than last time as you talked about. i think there is room for 29 defections in the republican congress. they'll have their largest majority since 1931. so what speaker boehner, the rumors on capitol hill that there have been conversations between leadership and other members making clear if there is a, you know, sort of embarrassment on the floor last time for speaker boehner that some members will be relinquish relinquished of that their committee slots. and the leader happens shmade behind-the-scenes efforts to tamp down on that embarrassment this time and i suspect they'll succeed with that. to your point i think it's important scalise standing by him will definitely help speaker boehner with the right flank.

>> nan, you've been there, the behind the scenes. obviously the republican conference, the democrat caucus they are diverse places in terms of the agendas that different people bring and it seems to be on the republican side and you could speak to this because you know these people. there's a fair number of republicans who when john boehner became speaker in 2011 they said this is a rino. he's too establishment. he's not a true believer. what do those people tell you when they talk to you privately? >> the speaker has a situation which is sort of, like be careful what you wish for and he is -- i can tell you from that personal experience and from those observations, he is deeply principled conservative. he is pragmatic. he is someone who as a person his style, and he has expressed it, is to let the housework its will. he wanted to listen to every member of the conference. he wanted to listen to democrats

when the 112th congress started at the beginning of 2011 four years ago, the rules changed so that many more amendments could be brought to the floor from democrats and republicans. that was a very different situation, by the way, from the -- nancy pelosi. >> there's a faction of conserve conservetives that don't like that style. >> i can't say they don't like that style but what they want to see is a muscular expression of what their constituents elected them to do, so thisere is passion there. and it is the job of the speaker and i think speaker boehner's well positioned to do that to make sure that we can turn that passion into practical progress for the sake of all the american people, you know, he really does want to serve all the american people. and in fairness the members of that conference also want to serve the american people.

and i was one of the members who certainly very quickly came to the position that i wanted to help the speaker advance as fast as we could. that did didn't mean we were going to get the touchdown but if we could get a few yards that was better than getting nothing at all and that's where the conflicts come in. >> the formal vote for the speaker ljspeak er speaker will be on the floor of the week. there's actual threats and a little bit of hardball from the speaker's side. >> which is something he didn't want to do. >> they didn't see it coming last time. very quickly. >> the rebels don't have a candidate. it's not clear who they will put up. it's very disorganized. >> in that case with those threats it's maybe not worth it. we'll see what happens and the next two years round three of john boehner as a speaker. thank you to you both. we'll see you in the next hour. i'm saying good-bye to you but you're coming back. stick around. another full hour of news and politics ahead. cations, a dry mouth can be a common side effect. that's why there's biotene.

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he was barack obama before barack obama. all right. thanks for staying with us this saturday morning. the city of new york is preparing to bury officer wenjian liu this weekend. police commissioner was asking his rank-and-file officers to show respect to everyone who attends including mayor bill de blasio. a live report on that is still ahead. we want to begin the hour with the man whose story could have begun just like this. >> there is not a liberal america or a conservative america. there is the united states of america. there is not a black america. and a white america. and latino america, an asian america. there's the united states of america. >> before barack obama stepped up to the podium at the 2004

democratic national convention almost no one had ever heard of him. and that was a speech that made him a political rock star overnight show and it proved to be a launching pad to the presidency just four years later. but this wasn't actually the first time a previously unknown convention keynote speaker turned himself into an overnight political folk hero someone millions of people begged to run for president. 20 years before that obama speech at the democratic convention in san francisco, a little-known first-term governor from new york said this -- >> and it's a story, ladies and gentlemen, that i didn't read in a book or learn in a classroom. i saw it and lived it like many of you. i watched a small man with thick callouss on both his hands work 15 and 16 hours a day. i saw him literally bleed from the bottoms of his feet. a man who came here uneducated alone, unable to speak the language who taught me all i needed to know about faith and hard work by the simple eloquence of his example.

i learned about hour kind of democracy from my father. and i learned about our obligation to each other from him and my mother. they asked only for a chance to work and to make the world better for their children. >> and that speech made mario cuomo a hero to millions of democrats. a voice for liberalism for the great new deal tradition at the height of the reagan era at the darkest hours. american liberalism has ever known. mario cuomo could have done what barack obama did. he could have turned around and run for president in 1988 but he didn't and he almost did jump in the race in 1992. he famously left a chartered plane idling at the albany airport on the day of the new hampshire primary filing deadline. mario cuomo died on new year's day at the age of 82. he leaves hend ss behind a political heir. his eldest son andrew starting his second term as governor of new york state.

he also leaves behind a mystery for the ages. what would have happened if he'd gotten on the plane and flown to new hampshire and why didn't he. joining us from d.c. this morning is e.j. dionne he first began reporting on governor cuomo with his failed run for new york city mayor in 1977 and here in studio terry ballway now director of the duquesne university center for history, politics and policy. e.j., let me start with you. the simple question the plane was idling. the field was wide open. the polls showed if mario cuomo got in that race he leaves bill clinton in the dust. he leaves jerry brown in the dust. the nomination looks like it's his. did we ever find out? >> there's been a mystery at the heart of that decision ever since he made it. there's all kinds of speculation, you know, some folks say there was something back there he didn't want to come out. i personally don't believe that's the case. i always thought that there was a piece of mario cuomo -- and

he's somebody i had -- i got -- i confessed -- confessed in a column coming out on monday. i had an affection for him pretty much from the moment i started covering him back in 1977, but i always think there was a piece of him that wondered am i someone for the national stage. he once said i have always wanted to believe in something larger -- something better than myself. and there was this curious mixture of assertiveness and humility in the guy. he always did think of himself -- and this was one of his great political assets why he could reach a lot of people. he thought of himself as an ethnic neighborhood guy and he always spoke up for the ethnic neighborhood folks. and you wondered what was it that held him back. was it a certain self-doubt. and i guess i lean toward that odd psychiatric help the doctor is in remember lucy and the peanuts column i lean a bit toward that but we will never

know unless andrew tells us someday. >> maybe he will. let me play this. when he made the decision not to run, he sat down and held a press conference, you know he never really wavered from the script in 23 years. but this was mario cuomo talking about disappointment not getting to run in '92. let's play that. >> i regard myself personally as highly privileged to serve the 18 million people of my state as governor for a third term. i would be less than honest if i did not admit to you my regret by not having the chance to run for president. at the same time i recognize that there already in the field a number of excellent candidates that can move this nation toward a more inclusive, more progressive, more intelligent course. >> terry, obviously the rest is history. bill clinton becomes the democratic candidate and wins the presidency. but you got a glimpse, more than a glimpse, of mario cuomo up close running new york state.

what would have mario cuomo been like as a president? >> he would not have been the great liberal icon that many people have portrayed him to be in death. he certainly spoke the liberal language, the great speech in san francisco and in other speeches including his inaugural address in 1983 when he was first elected governor. wonderful documents. but as governor he actually governed more like bill clinton than the mario cuomo that we're hearing about lionized as a great liberal icon. in my view he was at heart a liberal, a progressive. he actually hated the term liberal, he preferred a pragmatist. he governed from the center and not the left. it's certainly possible we would have gotten an administration somewhat similar to clinton except, of course, that cuomo opposed the death penalty. one of his great principled stands and i think that cuomo would have ever signed welfare reform. >> a difference. >> on that steve. >> go ahead.

>> i think terry is absolutely right on that. one of the most famous mario cuomo lines that i think we'll get into lots of books of quotations is we campaign in poetry but we govern in prose. if you looked at his time as governor as opposed to the period, you know, the speeches the great declaration of liberal principles, he was in a broad sense a progressive. progressive iveive pragmatist but he didn't overturn things in albany. and one of his great regrets as governor is that he took office at a time of soaring crime rates. his biggest building monument in new york was building more prisons than anyone else. and he talked about that ruefully after, you know, during his time in office and afterwards. so but i do think terry's right. the death penalty was something very important to him. although it's very interesting, in that last rhames that heace that

he lost at one point he proposed a referendum on the death penalty which some took as political opportunism and there was act bit of that in there but he wanted it set up against life without parole and his view was if we went to the voters gave them this alternative choice that put people away forever we could actually beat the death penalty. i always wished he got -- he had tried -- had had a chance to push that because i think there's a shot of beating the death penalty when that's the alternative. >> we talk about politicians and leaders who sort of attain a certain immortality. lloyd benson got that one line off in the debate against dan quayle, it will always be remembered through the anelges because of that. mario cuomo did something so rare in politics he gave a speech now 30 years ago in san francisco and that speech is still being played today. it's still remembered today. it's a speech against which all future convention speeches have

been measured. he made a lasting contribution with his words. >> he did, yeah. at a time, of course, when people thought that image was everything, you know, this was as you pointed out, this is the age of ronald reagan. it's not only the age of american conservatism at its height, it's the age of image, right? reagan was an image con, president. cuomo was very old fashioned. we portrayed him as the last new dealer. he was also old fashioned because he believed that words meant something that you could move people with words and not just images. we have a president today because of a speech that he gave but i would argue i don't think there's been an american president since reagan who was able to move people in the way that mario cuomo did and that would include the current president. >> it's interesting, e.j. when you talk about the context of that speech in 1984 it was a defense of the new deal. it was given as ronald reagan

was winning 49 states. the context to me that always juchl jumps reagan himself a former new dealer. ronald reagan sort of symbolized how the old new deal coalition had been split off and moved to the republicans for all sorts of different reasons and there was mario cuomo saying basically, you know, hey, don't forget where you came from. >> i think one of the reasons ronald reagan was so successful is he never forgot the lessons he learned as an fdr democrat. i always like to say that fdr stole optimism from fdr and bill clinton stole it back from ronald reagan. but i think one of the things that cuomo oddly was the anti-image image politician. if you listened to that speech he gave in 1984 it is very reagan-esque not in its politics but in the very concrete down-to-earth imagery he used. the example you showed earlier talking about his father's feet bleeding.

that was a rhetoric and a set of stories that could reach a lot of people who weren't liberal ideologues and i think the power of that speech it was a case for liberalism aimed at people who weren't necessarily liberals just as reagan was arguing for conservatism to people who weren't necessarily conservatives. >> quick question. do you think he regretted going for the fourth term and going out on a loss? >> i'm sure he did. >> i wish he had taken the court nomination. >> that's the other great story if bill clinton offers it to him instead of ruth bader ginsburg. and what the new york police commissioner is asking its officers not to do this weekend. we go live to the wake of one of the slain nypd officers. anyone have occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas, bloating? yeah. one phillips' colon health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these digestive issues

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this time next year the voting will begin. iowa voters will have the first say in choosing our country's next president when it comes to picking the democratic nominee will there be much of a choice to make at all? well, that all depends on whether the year ahead 2015 brings a heated race for the democratic nomination or more of a coronation for hillary clinton. recent polling has clinton up by 50 points at least over potential democratic contenders. there's some hunger for a progressive challenge against the liberal base. elizabeth warren said she isn't running but liberal activists are doing their best to do otherwise. bernie sanders is hinting he might try to fill that void. he's not yet a democrat officially but he's visited iowa four times. he did last year and he said he'll decide by march whether he'll make a run for the presidency. in november former virginia

senator jim webb became the first person in either party to announce a exploratory committee. joe biden said last month he would make a decision about running in the spring or early summer and maryland governor martin o'malley is looking at a similar timeline. "the washington post" reporting that o'malley and his supporters think the best shot is to sit back and see how clinton is received. who is actually going to run against hillary, anyone? will 2015 bring a real race on the democratic side or a dud? back with me is blake zed and in washington political reporter with nbc news. perry, let me put it to you this way let's stipulate that hillary clinton is running. you got jim webb martin o'malley bernie sanders, joe biden. we'll put warren aside for a minute. of those four who is most likely to step up and run against hillary clinton? >> i think you are likely to see from what i've heard so far jim webb and bernie sanders from my

impression they don't see themselves sitting in the oval office two years from now. they're trying to run campaign to talk about issues. bernie sanders is talking about income inequality and webb talking about income inequality and his view of the democratic party is too close to wall street and too pro-war. you can see those two candidates running issue-based campaigns the way ron paul has ran for the republican party for a long time. ron not rand, of course. i think you can see that. martin o'malley people who want to run if they can win and hillary clinton right now is sufficiently strong that they are unlikely to do so i think unless they have a sense at? she can't they can somehow defeat here. o'malley, the warren group is pretty strong being pro-warren. she keeps saying she's not running. at some point do they move on people like that decide hey, warren is not running, let's find somebody else and maybe o'malley who had a pretty strong liberal record as governor of

maryland could be their champion. >> if it's hillary, if it's sanders, sanders becomes a democrat and if it's jim webb. i mean that's a race. but is that a real ralesce or is it hillary clinton ahead by 50 points all year and that's it? >> i think she's ahead by a lot but it will be a race. hillary clinton has a very big lead on the democratic side but there are two groups that don't want her to coast to this. one are kind of liberals the economic populace and the other includes the media that includes you, steve. >> i have no agenda. >> because you have the two groups, the liberals will keach push ing keep pushing. i don't think elizabeth warren will run or someone who represents her type of agenda. if you are left with a field clinton and bernie sanders and jim webb well sanders and webb if and when they lob attacks on hillary clinton the media will be there to cover it and ever could it they will. they want a race there should be a race. i think hillary is a big, big, big favorite in that scenario

but it won't be the type of thing where she's not getting attacked and having to answer questions all the time. >> perry, you are drawing an interesting line. when i look at sanders and webb there's nothing for either one of them to lose. if they can get some free publicity and media attention that's good. if you look at biden you are looking at a sitting vice president and getting into a race and risk getting clobbered. i imagine you start thinking about your legacy and almost your sense of dignity. same thing with o'malley. you are talking about a two-term governor from a big state to get in here and just get pounded. that's got to be a consideration for him as well. that it's interesting that his people are now apparently sending out this -- the word that, hey, maybe they're sitting back for a little bit. >> because realistically if you wanted to feed hillary clinton you should have been in iowa yesterday and maybe tomorrow it has to start earlier. obama started running in january, february, 2007. hilly hillary was very strong and you have to start early.

o'malley saying i'll start in april is a sign of weakness and not strength. you have the point where barbara mikulski the senator from maryland and ben carton as well both have endorsed hillary already. when you can't get your own state to be for you, that's a really big problem. biden the same problem because biden and hillary are very close on most of the issues. they're also very close friends from my understanding. it's hard to see how biden will get out there and beat clinton because he's not going to win the elizabeth warren vote. what blake said i sort of feel the real race in a lot of ways in the next few months will be hillary clinton versus the shadow elizabeth warren. she'll be in the congress raising real issues from the left and the reporters on the trail who want to sort of push hillary will ask her what do you think about what warren said about income equality? do you agree with this stance? do you agree with this stance? hillary's real opposition in a lot of ways will be warren and the idea of warren running and why hillary is not, you know, as

left as warren or as pure as warren to the left. >> i'm wondering, too, every primary season we have 68 gazillion debates. if it's bernie sanders and webb challenging hillary clinton how many does she say yes to. this is a very unusual race when a sitting vice president is running 50 points behind a, you know hillary clinton or anybody else. that shows you how different it is. my thanks to blake zeth and harry bacon jr. i make that prediction. up next the nypd prepares to lay to rest one their own.

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bratton will attend a viewing for officer wenjian liu. his funeral will be held tomorrow. detective liu and detective rafael ramos were shot and killed two weeks ago today in brook len. adam reese is live in brooklyn where the wake will begin hours from now. i understand commissioner bratton has made a request from the officers who will be at the town funeral tomorrow. >> reporter: they've asked them not to turn their backs on the mayor when he gives his eulogy he said it's about grieving and not grievance. relations have been strained for the past couple weeks. efforts to repair it have gone nowhere. a meeting between the union and the mayor just ended up in more finger-pointing. the wake begins here today at 1:00. it will last until 9:00. the funeral's tomorrow at 11:00. both ceremonies will be infused with buddhist traditions like the burning of ceremonial money. now, officer liu's wife was a newlywed, just two weeks ago.

today she is a widow preparing to bury her husband. officer liu 32 years old, a seven-year veteran of the force. he's the first chinese officer to be killed in the line of duty here in new york city. officers ramos and liu will have two streets named after them here in new york. and they will both be promoted to detective posthumously, steve? >> all right, my thanks to adam reese live for us in brooklyn. appreciate that update. up next going to follow through on what my new year's resolutions. it's ok that your soup tastes like my homemade. it's our slow simmered vegetables and tender white meat chicken. apology accepted. i'm watching you soup people. make it progresso or make it yourself does a freshly printed presentation fill you with optimism? then you might be gearcentric. get a $15 gift card when you buy $75 in hp ink or any hp toner multipack. office depot & officemax. gear up for great.

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phenomenon the transportation service uber also going public it seemed we'd arrived at a logical starting point for our experiment, knowing more about ipos it's the shorthand for initial public offerings whatever the heck that means. investing is supposed to be a smart thing to do but mostly i get confused when i think about it. but all the shake shack talk has me wondering should i be buying in. what is an ipo in the first place? what does it mean to any amateur investor out there? to help me understand this strange and mysterious new world is rob insana. so ron, i know i should be investing. i get excited. i know what shake shack is. i've eaten it. it's delicious. >> you make it $7 million a year and you got to put the money somewhere, right? >> msnbc, right. if i get a few extra dollars and i want to invest i put it on the patriots and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

i know it's not a good long-term strategy. >> we'll be killing them next year. >> not for the last ten years and not without a coach. shake shack, what does it mean? honestly, layman's term what does it mean? >> it means a company that has been private will sell to the public so average individuals can purchase a stake in the company and in this case hamburger steak, but nonetheless, you are buying a piece of the company which entitles you to a couple of things. you have to a certain extent a say in management because you can vote as a shareholder about certain corporate developments. you are also entitled to sharing profits in the company and get paid the dividend on a quarterly basis and if the stock goes up you get to share in the appreciation and value of the company as it grows. so the real intent of an ipo when a company goes public is to raise additional capital to x pand the business which is what shake shack wants to do. they have currently 88 stores

worldwide. more than 50 are in the new york area, 27 are outside the country. >> is it a good -- like, i know what shake shack is as a consumer and i like it. is that a good reason when there's an ipo to buy in because you like the product or -- >> absolutely. peter lynch which was very famous mutual fund manager in the 1990s he ran fidelity's magellan fund which was one of the biggest in the world wrote an entire book about buying what you know. so if steve, you are going to buy what you know and you go to shake shack and you get a shake, you'll buy one share or let's say two shares. we'll each buy two shares of shake shack. this represents small shares. >> i got two shares of shake shack. >> let's say it goes public at $10. that's not the price, we don't know what the price will be. now own two shares for $20 and you're going to hope that shake shack goes to 20$20 a share and you double your money. there's the risk that it goes to zero. there's the risk that they go out of business and expand and blow up.

the risks exist with every company not just shake shack. but you're hoping their brand of burger and shake is going to disrupt mcdonald's business. disrupt chicago postpotle's business and they'll umes the proceeds to expand the markets where the competitors exist, whether it's five guys or zen burger or anybody else in the same space. >> when is the time to sell? because my instinct if i bought at $10 and it's $11 get me out of here. i got a little extra money. >> you just made 10% and you're happy and if you did it in a couple of days and youu you annualize that return that's a lot of money. if you bought mcdonald's in 1971, you outperformed in the 44 years since it went public. sometimes you don't sell. now, there are times particularly in the restaurant business where much of the growth in the stock comes when they're adding new stores. and so shake shack wants to expand from its current 80-plus

up to 450 stores. when they max out on the number of stores they're going to have sometimes restaurants in particular retailers also run into some turbulence. that's probably when you sell. when the story stops. when the growth story stops is when you sell the stock. >> that's interesting. it's liking the product but you got to know a little bit about the industry too. >> absolutely. >> in terms of these are the usual growth patterns or whatever. >> listen if they continue to grow and, you know, they're posting growth rates that are in excess of expectations you hang on to the stock. and there is a company that will be the next mcdonald's. if you knew starbucks 40 years ago would be starbucks you would have gotten involved in that. some stocks you flip. as an average investor you won't get the opportunity. usually big institutions when a company is coming public will buy the stock at the ipo price of $10 and if it goes to $12 or $13 or $14 they may flip out.

on the longer term average investors will want to hold it for an extended period of time and see if it lives up to its expectations. >> i have one investment story my grandmother gave me 300 on the idea that i invest it in a stock. i called her broker a thing called northeast utility so i got $300 into it. a month into it -- 18 years old. i was a month into college and i was broke and he said how much is it worth now, $267. i lost $33. >> that's what you don't do. one of the things that investing, not trading, requires is patience. if you're a trader and you take that $30 haircut, okay maybe you're out and you live to fight another day and you put $267 back in a stock hotter in the short run. if you're an investor particularly in a company like a utility which tends to have a long life and pays rather hefty dividends when you look at the compounded rate of return or total return which is the appreciation of the stock and the very generous dividend

payments that you get, over time if, let's say, it pays an 8% dividend your money will double in nine years. >> if i'd just hung in there -- >> you wouldn't be working right now. >> i could buy shake shack. ron insana thank you for setting me straight a little bit and appreciate all the information. still ahead what to watch out for this year quite literally. and we'll have an update on the little girl that walked away from the plane crash overnight in kentucky. curling up in bed with a favorite book is nice. but i think women would rather curl up with their favorite man. but here's the thing: about half of men over 40 have some degree of erectile dysfunction. well, viagra helps guys with ed get and keep an erection. and remember, you only take it when you need it. ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain; it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. side effects include headache, flushing, upset stomach and abnormal vision. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help

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all right. welcome back. we want to bring you up to speed on the story everyone's been talking about this morning the small plane crash in rural kentucky. a crash that a 7-year-old girl not only survived but walked away from. she walked away and sought help. doctors say that she's okay. unfortunately the four other people on board, that's her parents, her older sister and her cousin they were all killed in the crash. we've learned that the victims were from southern illinois. they were flying home to

illinois from key west florida, when their plane went down. the ntsb is investigating. you can stay with msnbc throughout the day with updates as we learn more about this story. for now, though, we've been looking ahead to the rest of 2015 in a lot of different ways today mostly about politics. now, though, time for some entertainment. 2015 is the year that stephen colbert will finally get to be himself at least maybe. this after david letterman steps aside in may. letterman's retirement prompting a major shake-up in late night tv. jon stewart's contract is up this year. we're not sure what he'll do next. we'll be eager to find out what he decides especially now that he's a movie director and this is a year when the geekiest movie of all-time "star wars" is coming backs, the internet collectively freaking out when the first trailer hit the web a couple weeks ago. what else can we expect from the year ahead in culture from movies and late night television and every other waif. and we'll decide what the coolest and can't-miss way that

people will be doing it this year. will this be the year your grandmother starts listening to podcasts. or even me i don't listen to them. here is nancy giles and david scott a reporter with "the new york times". i wanted to start with this one, the big late night shake-up the big late night changes playing out this year. colbert has had his last show. letterman is going away. colbert coming in for letterman. and larry wilmore taking his place. and james cordon taking over for craig ferguson. i liked him all these year. >> i did, too. i felt bad he got knocked aside. >> it was a quiet ten-year run. let's start with letterman leaving. it's a long run. television without david letterman. >> i can't imagine it and i'm crushed because i never got to sit in the chair next to him for what, i don't know. i got to do something really outrageous, you'll help me and we'll talk about it backstage. the minute they said they hired

stephen colbert, the next thing out of everybody's mouth that i knew and the networks was he's not going to do the xairkcharacter anymore and i loved the entity that he has. >> we've never really seen stephen colbert when he's not stephen colbert. >> yes, it was very arch and it was mocking a specific kind of tv broadcaster but he's also just a very quick wit and you could see that in the way that he comported himself on the show. and i think that's the kind of host that we're going to get is somebody who is just, you know really on the ball and very lively. >> is he going to do the traditional late night format the topical monologue, it's so hot in new york. i can't picture him doing that. >> there are certain elements of the format you have to keep. that monologue, it's the monle know monolith of the show. but you'll see more innovative segments in terms of utilizing the celebrity guest story that jimmy fallon has figured out. >> i hope so because colbert does do all these different kind

of things and he's not the traditional guy with tie that the other guys are so i hope to see that. >> other stuff happening this year, always talking about the sort of continuing migration to netflix and "howlsuse of cards "have a new season and tina fey has a new series for netflix. this is a trend, though, right? less and less about what the networks are debuting on the fall and more and more the individual shows. >> in a way i really love it because it's more platforms and opportunities for people to bring projects but there's this part of me yeah but the people who are getting to bring the projects still celebrities and the same people that do network things. so on the one hand you think there's opportunities and some new voices are getting heard but some aren't. and there is a little piece of me that still misses when there were three networks and when a really great show happened everybody got to see it. because it's so fractured now. >> the fall preview episode of "tv guide" 200 pages.

>> i collected those. >> even the last weeks, right? >> and the same time you saw the same actors kate jackson, how many different shows was she in? i loved that. >> sister kate the nut house. we're indujlgeing ourselves. here's a show that i'm excited about and more tradition but the spinoff from "breaking bad." the lawyer from that show getting a -- he was sort of the comic relief in "breaking bad." now he has his own show. >> he started out as a sketch comedian, in "mr. show" on hbo back in the day. and it will be an interesting trial balloon for amc. they started off first with madman and with "breaking bad." "mad man" is going away at the end of the current season. can they start to hand these shows off to, you know spinoffs or just will other -- other shows kind of rise to take their place or, you know was it just

kind of a lucky break that they started off with these two great serialized narratives. >> what about we mentioned the podcasts and -- i don't listen to podcasts. they sound fascinating. >> i know. i'm glad you said that because it made me feel less nervous. i don't really either but i started because i knew we would be doing this segment for last night three hours that i should have been asleep i listened to "cereal" which is fabulous. it's almost like old-time radio, hearing old radio drama only it's true. and i have a friend who does really cool podcasts called "the 51%" sandy cline. and her podcasts are about creative women because they don't get in the mix that much for these podcasts. i'm trying. golly moses, there's so much stuff. i don't know when do you have time to do all this stuff. >> what "cereal" illustrates it is so much about word of mouth. podcasting as a phenomenon or format is not that new. it didn't just come out this

year but this is the first one to reach a critical mass it really does seem -- when "saturday night live" is parodying it you know it hit a certain threshold. >> it did? when did they do that last week? >> the most recent episode they did a satire of it. to see if podcasts come on can they come up with a second season that's engrossing as the one they started with. can they even reduplicate what they did. >> duplicating, too, we don't have time for this but obviously a lot of movie franchises "jurassic park" another "star wars" this year. and do you know what everybody loves the comic book movies and i'm so sick of it come on. doesn't need to be a franchise or a sequel. >> i know. >> a 12-year-old boy is very excited but unfortunately i'm now 39 years old and i missed my window by 27 years. >> i used to work at the box office. thanks to nancy giles and david, always good to have both of you on. what will the political

landscape look like throughout the next year? maybe not what uldyou'd expect. predictions next. that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees from the bank where no branches equals great rates.

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always expect the unexpected. that's good life advice or at least it's a cliche. but can we apply it to the world of politics? we certainly had a few surprises last year including everything that happened after some time for some traffic problems in ft. lee became public. also eric cantor's stunning loss to his primary challenger in virginia. republican dave bra thett. how about bob macdonald and his wife being found guilty of corruption. ten years for the governor of virginia. what are going to be the surprises in 2015? who are going to be the front-runners? is president obama's approval going to rise? let's not only expect the

unexpected. let's do the impossible by trying to predict the unexpected. let's do this in a few different ways. we have the panel here. at this time next year 365 days from now we'll be on the the eve of the i-kauowa caucuses. new hampshire is going to come right after that. the republican field is very crowded and unpredictable. a year from now, take the crystal ball out. who are we talking about a year from now? who tr the front-runners going into this thing next year? >> this is not going to make a ton of news. hillary clinton looks good on the democratic side. we can discuss that if you want. the more interesting thing is the republican side. there's a lot of volatility. the person i have my eye on is rand paul. not necessarily saying he's going to have this wrapped up but to me he's interesting for the following reason. there's so many that you need to please. there's going to be mainstream establishment type. whether that's a christie or jeb

bush to have the money. then you have the movement conservative group. and there's a whole lot of people from ted cruz onward the interesting thing about paul is he's trying to do interesting things to scramble the calculus entirely. going to try to reach out to younger voters maybe independents. also try to show the establishment not to be too frightened of him. he's not ted cruz. paul is the one i'm really looking at. >> how about you? who do you think is leading on the republican side this time next year? clearly the field is broad and deep. it's exciting. jeb bush has a tremendous advantage going into this because he can raise money. he's definitely got the biggest fund raising potential out. i say nonsense. she was a very successful two-term governor in the fourth largest state. >> sounds like you're ready for

jeb. >> but these are important arguments that have to be made on the republican side. we're going to talk about conservative in a few days. i would like to see someone in the debate who can propound those crucial decisions so we can actually bring the 99% up to where the 1% is. and if we have a leader who will cut the size of government appropriately, cut taxes, have appropriate compassion and pragmatic approach on immigration. >> is jeb your candidate? >> i would be happy to support jeb bush or governor christie. >> okay. i'm just wondering if we were going to make a little news there? >> i think a toss-up between jeb bush and chris christie. mainly for the reasons that republicans have always nominated the winnable electable candidate who can win over the establishment wings of the party. and having said that, i would not count out rand paul and ted

cruz. they're very strong with special segments. >> you make a good point on paul. i'll tell you, i'm not sold on bush right now. when you look at what he's supposed to represent, the theory behind bush and match it with the poll numbers, i'm seeing resistance among republicans to the bush names. i'm wondering if republicans are looking pragmatically and saying do we want to put another bush up there? is there too many bushes for the country? i know people might roll their eyes. the one i keep coming back to is chris christie. the thing i've always noticed about chris christie covering him in new jersey and trying to imagine this nationally. and a lot of people say the jersey thing won't play in iowa. it won't play outside of new jersey. i'm picturing them coming after him. i'm remembering how much somebody like mitt romney struggled in the debates. chris christie is such a natural in those settings. look there could be explosive moments where he ticks people off and it backfires. i think he could create moments

in the course of the year that change a lot of people's expectations about how he'll do in this race. you know i'll tell yo what if i had to pick them now and guess, i would say hillary clinton and chris christie. at least he did before. somebody make a big bold prediction for 2015. who will win the super bowl this year? i'll tell you patriots. anybody want to argue otherwise? >> tax reform! >> there you go. >> i would also add republicans are going to decide it's in the political interest to maintain the gridlock. >> that's a downer. thank you for that. you may be right anyway. appreciate you all getting up this morning thank you for joining us this morning for "up." check out upwithsteve.msnbc.com. thank you for getting um.

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cascade. now that's clean. happy new year nerd land! five, four, three, two, one! good morning. i'm melissa harris-perry and it's been three weeks since i last sat at this table. and you know what i really missed you. seriously, i did. in the final weeks of 2014 there was plenty of political news, social movement activity and pop culture happenings and you got to hear all about them right here on msnbc, but i missed having the chance to talk with you all about it. because you know what there's something powerful about a good long talk. research shows for us humans the ability to learn, develop