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tv   The Cycle  MSNBC  January 16, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm PST

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all of our countries are working together seamlessly to prevent attacks and defeat these terrorist networks. >> big terror bust across europe as president obama looks to beef up u.s. security deploying troops to train syrian rebels. as we come on air, 400 troops are heading to train the syrian rebels. they are lending knowledge but not man power against isis. they now have a chapter in pakistan and afghanistan and expanding outside of iraq and syria. and isis is encouraging supporters to send money to them overseas but to stay home and launch attacks right where they live. that is a big tactical change. meantime more than two dozen people have been arrested in a trio of anti-terror raids in belgium and in germany. in belgium, 15 suspects are being questioned in raids that left two gunmen dead.
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chilling details show how close they were to carrying out a plan to kill police officers. they seized guns bombs and a ton of cash. they dismantled that terror cell and the network behind it. and in france a dozen of people were arrested overnight and they want to know if they gave any help cars or money to the kouachi brothers or amedy coulibaly. and then a false bomb threat at a busy french kba -- french station. and one man that was unstable but not involved with any terror group. and in turkey two were arrested being accused of helping jihad. saying they sent huge sums of
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money and night gear. they are described as a common threat and that is the threat that president obama and david cameron discussed today at the white house. ari is on the north lawn where the administration is preparing tuesday's state of the union one that the world, both good and evil will be watching. we'll have more on that coming up. but we start inside with nbc news senior white house reporter chris jansing. you were in the room for the press briefing and the meeting between obama and cameron comes at a critical time for both nations. what can you tell us. >> reporter: these series of meetings were planned for some time but you've outlined what happened over the last week or so in addition to the anti-terror raids and to the belgium police disrupting what could have been a paris-like attack and 17 people killed over the course of three days in france it ups the ante for how important the conversations are.
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one of the things cam ran has become looking for is for the president to push american companies, twitter, facebook google to have some more access to the communications between terrorists. david cameron has said bluntly there have been disruptions of attacks. he pointed to one in particular because of access to these kind of communications. it is setting off a big debate on both sides of the atlantic. obviously how do you balance those security needs versus privacy. take a listen to what the president had to say about the bigger picture and the war against terrorists. >> we reviewed our coalition's progress against isil. we are systematically taking out their fighter and destroying their infrastructure and helping local law enforcement push these terrorists attack. and it is not underscored how al qaeda and isil are trying to
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inspire support from people in our own countries to inspire traxt. and we understand that military force won't solve this problem so we'll keep working together to encounter violent extremism that radicalizes recruits and mobilizes people especially young people, to engage in terrorisms. >> reporter: we've heard it from members of this administration and leaders of european country and what keeps them up at night is the threat of lone wolves and what you heard the president mention is the foreign fighters. take a look at the numbers. it is very difficult to estimate but across europe they believe there may be as many as 3000 to 5,000 european citizens who have joined the jihadist militant ranks and about 30% have come home. and the idea obviously is to try to track them and keep them from coming back and making plats z-- plots happen.
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and it is difficult when you talk to american intelligence to get a good number. they settle around something around 100 but admit it could be many more. but the conversations are just not keeping them to train in places like syria but how do you get them to stop from coming back home and carrying out some terrorist attacks. >> chris jansing in the briefing room thank you so much as always. and one of the most foremost in fighting terrorism, and daniel is teaching at dartmouth. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> as we watch the raids across europe take us inside of counter-terror units across europe. what are they considering and what are they watching and how are they making the decision whether or not to go forward with raids on cells they are
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surveilling? >> well, at this particular moment given all of theage administration in the wake of charlie hebdo and in the wake of this raid in belgium, i think you'll find that authorities across europe are rying to -- trying to raddle extremists to find out if there are conspiracies in the work or finding out information about foreign fighters who might have come back and i think the belgium raid is a surprise because most of us had not thought there would be foreign fighters acting up just yet. and the authorities are alsoen tensefying their surveillance because -- intensifying their surveillance because after you've had attacks, one like in paris that have drawn blood, there is a fear of a follow-on attack or a copy cat attack that might be a sign of opportuneism
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a sign that some of the extremists believe they too should get into the act now. >> and daniel there is a tactical change with isis as krystal mentioned in the lead. a year ago we were talking about isis calling on people to go over to syria to fight and now they are saying stay where you are and carry out of the attack there and richard engle spoke to this on the "today" show take a listen. >> in the message for the last year or so isis has been putting out a call. come and join us and join the caliphate and now the message has changed. don't come and join the caliphate, stay home and arm yourself and go out on the attack. and they are staying that in the u.s. by the way. >> david, what do you make in the strategy and what he said in the end, they are urging people to attack here in the u.s. should we be on high alert like europe is? >> so isis' change in messaging
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is meant to heighten the sense of anxiety throughout the west that extremists will take action as they did in paris. my own guess is that this is not entirely a straightforward message and the recruiters are still trying to find people who can be funneled to syria and to iraq. but it is meant to maximize the terror, to maximize the panic. and they are also piggy backing on a theme that was pioneered by the al qaeda operatives the preacher al-awlaki who was in yemen who was the first to say thatern who cared -- that everyone who cared about the jihadist group should carry out acts wherever they are and they don't need to travel to a conflict zone to participate in
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this struggle. and there have been a number of people who have cited his influence, whether it was for the ft. hood shooter or the attackers we saw in paris. >> and so dan, if the key threat there is fleeing foreign fighters then that could persist event if you had a total victory in syria? >> well that is absolutely true. first of all i'm skeptical, i have to say, of the numbers who have come home or said to have come home. the actual number that will come home over the long term if past conflicts are any indication will be smaller than that. quite a number will die in syria and iraq. quite a number will move on to other fights. some will come home and of those who come home a relatively small number will take action. in the past it has been about one in nine who had you to worry about. even so those small numbers can add up to a significant threat
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and of course the longer the conflict goes on in syria and iraq the greater the problem we may face will be. >> daniel the military and police response has been as effective as those groups could possibly make it but it has felt like whack amole. we attack them here and they bounce back there. we can never truly suppress them for a for a long period of time. it seems the military response and the police will not be fully effective. where do we get to an end game to end this constant war against radical islam? >> sure. well first of all, let's be clear. the total number of deaths from terrorisms in recent years has been extremely small in the west. and the threat itself i think has been considerably reduced. given the headlines, people don't have that perception. but if you look at the statistics, that is the case. as for the longer term this is a very very difficult thing to
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do. particularly when you have con fliblgtss continuing -- conflicts continuing in a place like iraq. now the conflict is iraq is mostly focused on iraq on conflict between shiite and sunni there but it does throw off sparks that will affect us. there has been an effort going on in the u.s. and other allies trying to deal with countering terrorism and diminishing radicalism in other countries. this is slow and we don't know how to do this and there is a lot of innovation and the resources are harder than for police work. so it is a long and hard struggle. >> thank you so much david benjamin. and up next while some are gathering to craft their speech. and the president's state of the union address is set for
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republicans are heading home today from the annual retreat, using last two days to heal a fractured caucus in a majority when national security has never been more important. kelly o'donnell is back in washington for us. and kelly, republicans are in an interesting political situation
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given recent events. they bill themselves as the party of national security but they have to tread lightly when battling the president here. >> reporter: it will really be challenging, abby. and perhaps they can work off a sugar high being in hershey, pennsylvania. >> good segway. >> it is rare to have house republicans in the same place because for the first time in a long time republicans have control of both chambers. this was a different kind of retreat but it reminds us of ways they are not in step. and as you point out, the identity of the republican party derives the strength from the notion it is the party stronger on foreign plsy and -- policy and national security. and the department of homeland security, not a lot of time left to get that funded and yet there are so few options for republicans to push back on the
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president for his immigration actions. the power over the purse is one of those ways. so those are really in conflict. if you want to fund the department at a difficult time in the world moving forward on the immigration piece becomes much more challenging. we have a stake at what is at -- we have a sense of what is at stake from john boehner. >> we live in a dangerous country and we get reminded every week of the dangers that are out there. we saw what happened in paris a week ago. i'm going to say this one more time because you're going to hear about it for months and months to come as we attempt to reauthorize a fisa program. our government does not spy on americans, unless they are americans who are doing things that frankly tip off our law enforcement officials to an imminent threat. >> so there he is talking about part of the legacy of the edward snowden disclosures and congress looking at a way to revive fisa
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laws and what data collection rules can be done. and there are issues that are different in even the republican party. and the libertarian are also concerned and the government intercepting plots. and as far as coming together kumbaya, there are some issues in which the party is not on the same page. >> it will be interesting to see that play out in 2016. kelly o'donnell. thank you as aum ways. and so what will the president say in his state of the union. welcome dana. so i'm sure the white house had a good idea of how they wanted to focus the state of the union on tuesday but with everything that happened in the past two weeks in europe how does this
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impact the content and the importance of the speech. it is now more relevant than ever. >> yes the best played plans of mice in white house appear not to be going the way this president wanted it to. i'm not shire president obama can pivot away from what he is planning to do on tuesday which is a domestic state of the union address. he dribbled out all of his themes in advance wlrks it is paying for college or cyber security. it is not necessarily all about terrorism and islamic state. and the paradox is this is a moment where the country is looking for a big speech for a big focus. the white house has indicated that it is going small with this. that it is sort of the clinton model of aspirational ideas, a lot of them domestic and economic. so it will be an interesting
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moment. >> and dana here the president did meet with lawmakers and senators and told him for the first time that he will send a war authorization on isis to congress. john corn wynn said it was news to him. he will send up an amf. and mcconnell said it is important to tell us what he wants and the initial document off of which we would work and senator mccain said i think it is great and appropriate just as they have with every other major authorization of use of military force. so dana, it seems like there was unit on completely ducking this issue before the election and now there is some unit on passing some kind of war resolution against isis? >> here-here. and that is what they do. they've gotten rid of the exchanges back and forth and saying you go first no you go first. after you and after you. and finally they'll do what was agreed was necessary to do after
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the election in the first place. so the reaction on capitol hill is basically they are against whatever this president is for. but when it comes down to it there is no real dispute here over what is needed in this car. and now even the rand paul wing of the party -- rand paul is saying he would like to authorize the use and in fact he was earlier on intending to force the issue. so we've got rid of all of the -- of the back and forth and now they can do what they agree on. >> you talk about rand paul the gop's current most famous isolationist who by all indications will be in the presidential race or at least in the gop primary. and i wonder how this terror debate will impact that gop primary when you have folks like rand paul maybe we should take an isolationist approach and how that will play out on relatively
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few stages. the gop had 22 debates in the past and this time they say that is too many. we'll have 5, 10 12 tops. we want to keep our message of what we think to ourselves. but what is the base of the gop, do they want to hear from their folks in terms of foreign policy. >> what does that say about the republican confidence the more people see of their candidates the less well they are going to do in this election. >> no comment on those debates. >> it is interesting, rand paul has been sort of tip toeing back to the center retreating out of his isolationist shell and saying, yes, we should be at war against islamic state. but these fissures are going to up now, as kelly said on capitol hill now that republicans have to come up with an alternative, if they are going to come up with an alternative to the president's policies and it is bound to come out on the campaign trail
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because depending on how brave rand paul will be about this there is a significant part of the republican base. is it a third or something like that that wants to pull back from american engagement in the world. it is unlikely that will prevail in a primary but you could presumable lip for the first time -- presumably for the first time in decades have a decent of the republican party. >> we're going to talk about the state of the union. but your choice for the state of the union response going with joanie erns. and that has ruined a few people's careers, marco rubio and the drink of water comes to mind but what should we expect there? >> this raises hog castration to a very central issue. >> oooh!
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>> they are going to make him squeal. >> i hope that works out for them. maybe she is expendable and if something goes wrong, she can take abuse. and look into the camera and -- the right camera and don't drink water and try to be normal nirks which it goes badly in, which case everyone is watching. a lot of lessons have been learned over the last few years. dana millbank thanks. and tonight, mitt romney speaks out. and looking ahead to the big state of the union speech on tuesday night. ari is on the white house lawn with a preview. hey,ary, is it cold out there? >> pretty cold.
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we're coming to you from the white house north lawn this afternoon. behind me right now the president and his team are preparing for the state of the
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union speech on tuesday night. this second term address is likely to focus on some achievement and improving job market and the diplomatic break-through with cuba and also innovation and combatting terrorism. from france to belgium, americans are sizing up facial security threats that seem to be constantly adapting. don bear knows these well and is chief writer for president clinton and now at verse and marstellar. good day, don. when you are writing a speech like this in advance, how do you coordinate the very manies like the world reeling from the recent terror in europe? >> you have to remain very flexible and be ready to move in and have a big enough theme that can incorporate these things. but the fact of the matter is probably 40% to 50% of the speech would be foreign policy any way. if you look back at the year we've just had and the key
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foreign policy challenges there have been, it makes sense the president would speak to this. and let's not forget the situation where no one from the administration went to paris, to march in that rally that took place last sunday the white house must royce that the president's speech next tuesday is his opportunity to rectify that and to make it clear where america stands on terrorism. >> and don, speak to us about how important the different styles are here. i imagine working with president clinton, he prepared probably very differently from president obama in terms of being able to adopt very last-minute, writing some of it themselves. talk about the styles. >> well president clinton was legendary for doing things at the last minute as it got closer. and he wanted to maintain flexibility to move the speech forward as news changes and opportunities presented themselves. but president obama and clinton are both masters as politicians
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and they understand what it is to communicate to the whole country and to use this big opportunity to make the case make the points that they want to make. so we hear that president obama tends to get ready and sort of secure the speech earlier than president clinton used to but i'm sure that they are going to be watching over the course of this weekend and even into early next week as events change in terms of how they need to use the speech to speak to the events. but at the same time this isn't a news conference. this is about making a statement to the country setting an agenda for the whole year and in this case, 2015 in many respects this is the opening shot in the battle for who sets the agenda for the 2016 presidential campaign and this sitting president wants to have a hand in doing that. >> don, in presidential speeches the thing in history that people remember are the moments of soaring poetic
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language, ask not what your country can do for you, why do those moments appear in the speeches so frequently. >> well that was john kennedy's inaugural address. different setting and different sort of speech. inaugural addresses are shorter and don't tend to be major policy addresses. state of the union addresses are policy agendas and setting a theme for the country and a direction. but it is a different kind of tone that you are likely to find in a more ceremonial event like that. >> and don, one of the most memorable and moving of last year's state of the union was when the president talking about the army ranger who was injured in combat and he was there at the state of the union. how do they select those people to highlight the anecdotes and the people they bring to watch the speech. >> usually, you are trying to amplify and animate a particular theme and in that case the
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president was trying to drive home that we still have this commitment to the fight that we have to take abroad and also to those who have taken the fight on our behalf. and it depends on that theme. but whoever you choose they have to be a real person with a great dramatic story that can be moving to those people who are watching. >> and so many people watching can relate to those people as krystal was saying. very true. done bear thank you so much for joining us today. still ahead, what abby huntsman thinks of mitt romney's chances of yes, moving into the big house. and "charlie hebdo" editions arriving stateside today but even cartoonists are restricted about what is instead. one of them expressing his concerns. that is up next.
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agreed to take up whether states can ban same sex marriage. pete is at the court. what do you know? >> it is a historic day. because the supreme court has never agreed to decide this question and now it is taking two separate questions. can states refuse to grant same sex marriage on their own and can they refuse to recognize same sex marriages performed legally in other states. the court granted four cases from the midwest, from ohio tennessee and kentucky. in all of those states there were banned that were upheld by the court after peels. other court of appeals said no and because of the split has been the reason the supreme court has taken the case. judging by the schedule it can still be argued and decided this term. it would probably be argued very late in april with a compressed
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schedule and a decision for the supreme court in late june. so by the end of june we should know whether same sex marriage will be in every state the law of the land or whether states can still decide on their own whether or not or grant same sex marriage. but this speep court term has become a historic one. and we have this case and the challenge to obama care and now this term is going to be a blockbuster. >> pete williams will be busy this year. thank you for the breaking news from the court. the "charlie hebdo" issue is selling out in france despite printing millions including a mere 3 million and an english digital translate is available to everyone. and it has created questions around media, and to say we stand with hebdo, does that mean we have to stand with them
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finding them funny and they are at a cross roads and many wondering if they can stand at help do without putting their lives at risk. and it is reported by ed ward rally, and commentators debate the cause of the murder and ends with him showing less courage than the hebdo illustrators had. and he said forgive me i want to continue to be alive. and let's talk about this. ali, i understand the hebdo illustrators i would rather live on my feet than die on my knees. but are you really afraid to draw mohammed or are you taking that as an interesting artistic stance. >> i don't want to draw him. and i know there were der ranked people -- deranged people that
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would go after me and whether it was blasphemy or considered ratist. so in the original version of the economic i i was considering -- i was considering ending up mohammed as benedict cumber batch and he is the benefit of hunk-dom. >> i don't know what that means? >> hunk-dom is a good looking person. and so it is challenging that part of islam and is it any portrayal? so this is a bigger issue? so i ended up with something more melancholy. >> and the pope steps in and said one cannot make fun of faith. and what do you say to people that say this is fine but then
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you have the holocaust cartoon contest or people jumping out of buildings on 9/11 shouldn't the same rule as comply across the board? >> well, the hope that was rep rehebsible -- reprehensible what he said. we should go after that kind of reprehensible comments. >> why is that? >> to say we should not have free expression and to draw something that is criticism before the bodies are even cold or buried. he has a right of free speech as well. >> i think he was making the term that there is a line to be drawn when it comes to religions. >> the only line i draw is to the freedom expression. >> but you didn't draw the prophet. >> because i don't want to dry.
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>> and you write a lot of mideast controversial car afternoons you have criticized governments and zionism and violence in terrorism and you are afraid. how should an artist deal with this environment where people want to take journalism or art and put it into the box of saying you're either pro or anti-islam or anti-israel, how do you deal with that? >> i would like to say that you can make a broad reply to this. sort of like a single brush for every particular ideology. but i will say that even though abe foxman who is the pope of the jews the head of the ado, he's launched campaigns against me to the editors of the forward and insisting they not run my stuff and much to his credit, he has not issued a fatwah for my death.
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and johnpot horst the editor of commentary has called me a kapo which is a jewish functionary for the nazi one fit for being murdered. but i don't think that was a dog whistle to the deranged. and you need to be deranged to read commentary today. >> so what is the response to this particular cartoon? >> i think it has been gratifying, because people are like, okay he's honest. but i thought this would be the one comic of mine that conservatives would appreciate because normally they can't stand my stuff. >> i can't imagine why. >> and i thought this one -- i would gain some friends on the other side. and they say he is no cowardly he won't draw mohammed but still attacks the jews. >> aren't you intimidated? >> i would like to be alive. i'm just being honest. >> you are eddy valley. and you are here. and are you ready for some
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football? we're talking about who goes to the super bowl and who goes home. we're talking sports. that's up next. for a crowd this big your everyday dishes will only go so far. literally. you had to go deep into the cupboard. embarrassingly deep.
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seahawks soar over the packers? can tom brady lead his new england patriots to a sixth super bowl or will andrew luck and the colts represent the afc in the valley of the sun? for the latest on the quest for the lombardi trophy we have a friend of the show jordan schultz, sports columnist and co-host of nbc show cup and shows. great intro, krystal. >> i like to get into it. >> good day. >> so let's start with the seahawks and the packers? what do you think? >> i like the seahawks. they were picked by me last season. >> ari is a seahawks fan. >> and new england did it in '50 and seattle, seeing richard sherman there, they are the first team in over 35 years krystal to lead the defense three years in a row. it is a hell of an
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accomplishment. green bay is banged up and aaron rodgers has a calf bothering him for a few weeks now. it got reinjured a couple of weeks ago and he battled against dallas in the divisional round but he is not 100% and that is a big deal for the packers. >> the colts and the patriots. tom brady is on fire. it is luck the old guard versus the new guard. that is what a lot of people will be watching. what will happen him? >> i picked new england to represent the afc before the year and i'm going to change my pick. >> a man who admits when he's wrong. >> the first time it happens, i'll admit it krystal. >> the random attacks on ari are typical. >> well luck has made 53 career starts and off to the best start and he's 24 years old, to me andrew luck is the next bill
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superstar in the nfl and i would like to see him go on the road and win this game. >> can you put something in jordan's tea because something is clearly wrong. he's picking the colts to beat the patriots straight up. this man is insane. and that is insane. picking this up is insane. >> and let's present you didn't pick the colts. and vegas puts out a line and it is difficult to pick games against the spread. the line on seattle versus green bay is seattle mine us 7. -- minus 7.5 points and the half is to make sure there is no ties. and new england is minus 6.5. i like seattle at new england. i'm taking the favorites, giving away the points. what say you, tough guy? >> i'm going to lay the -- >> how did this get so confrontation. >> we're men talking about
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football. it has to be confrontational. >> i will lay the points in the seattle game. 50% of the country is split on this, 50/50 in terms. game.0 in this game. >> people are going for the favorites. that's why the new england line is changing. >> i think indianapolis wins this game straight up. i will say this about bill belichick. if he wins this game his legacy once again is recemented. i think he has a lot to prove here to say, hey, i can still get to another super bowl and win it. >> you're asking bill belichick to prove something else? this is perhaps one of the best nfl coaches in history. >> got to give him a lot of credit but to beat indianapolis in foxborough is a big task
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right now. >> you're so confident about it. >> there's a lot of confidence going around. >> i've got a really important question, though with the super bowl because last year it was a nightmare. they ran out of velveeta cheese. i went to every store to find it. even on amazon. should we start buying velveeta cheese now? >> stock up today. >> february 1st is super bowl in phoenix. now is the time to do it. >> nfl facing another pr nightmare. colts linebacker accused of rape. how have they done handling this situation versus -- >> the colts specifically or the nfl? >> the colts. >> he is not a big contributor for their team. they're able to move on. the nfl has the bigger responsibility here to lay the hammer down on this player and lay the hammer down on the colts and players in this league to
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say this is not okay. this is another opportunity for roger goodell to get it right. i would imagine the hammer comes down harder than it has in the past in this season. >> it will be a big weekend in football. thank you as always for being here. go get your velveeta cheese everybody. from the gridiron to the big top, i left this circus behind. >> i'm going to give you a bit of push here. come back. hands first, hands first, legs up, legs up. >> you can check that out on our website, of course. coming up i'm going to be ranting about mitt romney. should he or should he not be running for president? stick with us. what makes it an suv is what you can get into it.
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if mitt romney is the answer what is the question? you can probably think of a few worthy possible questions, but one that doesn't come to mind immediately is who would be the best republican presidential nominee in 2016? it's a question "the wall street" journal asked this week after mitt romney told a group of donor, i want to be president. this time will be different. this time i will run as the real mitt romney the guy who shows compassion and doesn't pander and make huge gaffes. this time i know what i'm doing. i believe he is a far more genuine and real person underneath all of it. and i say this as someone who
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watched my own dad run for president. part of us are saying what? you really want to go through all of that again? i guess you can also say, why shouldn't he run. he got close last time. he knows how to raise a ton of cash from big donors. just because you can run for president does not mean you should. even if you believe you are the chosen one, it doesn't mean it is the best thing for this country. ronald reagan did it three times. why can't romney? the gipper analogy is. romney's case is different from reagan's.
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in 2012 he defeated a historically weak field, aside from my dad. that was thanks to his ability to raise more money and pound his competitors with negative ads. this represents a romney problem. he never expressed a real emotion, not anger, not sadness, not unscripted laughter. this is why he lost the last two times. it was not because of his gaffes or even because he was too rich. he lost because he came across computer animated. moments like this. >> i love this state. it seems the trees are the right height. i like seeing the lakes. i love the lakes. >> i drive a mustang and a chevy pickup truck. anne drives a couple of cadillacs exactly. >> i'm not sure about these cookies. you don't look like you made
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them. >> if there's one thing i do know perception is everything in politics. if you can't connect with voters and convince them that even on a small way you can understand them and have compassion for them, you will never win. will the third time be the charm? i doubt it. the question he should be asking himself right now is not should i be running for president again. it should be how can i make the biggest difference. if he is being honest with himself, taking ego out of it he should come up with the conclusion he has had his chances. no matter how many cars the romneys have politics in 2016 should be a new model. breaking news from the supreme court. same sex marriage will have its day in court. it is friday january 16th and
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this is "now." the supreme court of the united states agreed to settle the long standing legal debate over marriage equality. this april, the justices will review an earlier appellate ruling that bans same-sex marriage in four satetates, michigan kentucky ohio, and tennessee. last week florida became the 36th state to issue marriage licenses to same sex couples. let's go to our nbc justice correspondent, pete williams. pete explain to us if you can to those of us at home the events and rulings that led up to this point and gave the supreme court/forced their hand to rule on marriage equality. >> let's not understate the significance of what the court may do here. it is going to be beyond the 14