this is "the reid report." now there is a new threat from isis. in a video released overnight online, to quote the government and people of japan, isis has threatened to kill two japanese hostages within 72 hours unless they get a 200$200 million ransom. they have not identified the hostages, but they are named in the video as haruna yukawa and kenji goto. they are kneeling on the ground in two orange jump suits. today john kerry reiterated support for japan and ordered the hostages released. kerry plans to speak with japan today. and from ana of our asian american website. what do we know about the hostages and how are they responding to the ransom. >> the two men are believed to be japanese internationals.

kenji goto is a journalist posting reports from syria to his twitter account. yukawa according to japanese reports, started a military company and believed to have travelled to syria recently. japanese officials are condemning the kidnapping and the threats in the video as despicable and unforgivable and they have not said whether they are willing to pay the ransom but the significance of the amount is the 200$200 million that they are demanding, that is the exact same amount that the japanese prime minister pledged this weekend for nonmilitary aid to countries battling isis aid going to displaced people and rebuild homes destroyed as a result of the fighting. and so they stand in solidarity and staying in close contact with the japanese. >> ana, there is reports of escalation of violence by rebels in yemen. can you give us the latest there

and the threat to the embassy? >> these are disturbing reports. there are a group of residents from houthi that have been launching an attack on the presidential compound. it was confirmed that the presidential home was on attack. and this houthi group trace their ancestry back and they became armed in the last decade and in the last months have been cutting a path to the capital city of sanaa. and from an american security perspective, this is a group hostile to the united states and maintains good relations with iran. and yemen is a country where the u.s. is battling a strong al qaeda contingency, more than 100 drone strikes have been launched there in the last few years.

u.s. officials said there is no imminent threat to the embassy and no active plan to evacuate staff but the situation is still very much developing. >> ana nawaz, thank you very much. so the president will deliver his sixth state of the union address tonight. the president believes it is in very good shape. but when he walks no the house chamber, the audience will be different. for the first time he'll speak in front of a republican-controlled congress. he will discuss things he's previewed over the last few weeks, things like tax reform and student loans, all he thinks will help the american middle class. >> this state of the union gives me an opportunity to present to the american people now that we have fought our way through the crisis, how do we make sure that everybody in this country, how do we make sure that they are sharing in this growing economy? how do we make sure they have

the tools to succeed. >> cecilia munoz is the policy director at the white house. thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> let's talk about the president's plans. first let's go back and talk about his immigration executive action which is sure to come up tonight and which has been the subject of much consternation among republicans. or nbc wall street journal poll shows that 52% of americans agree with the action but when americans were asked what priorities they want the president and congress to pursue passing legislation to create a passage way for immigration to citizenship, only 39%. and is this something the president will emphasize as one of his top priorities. >> he wants to make sure we have a comprehensive reform to fix what is broken about our immigration. we came close. we had a bipartisan bill in the senate which the house refused to move. so the president took action and fixed what he could under the law with the executive actions

in november but we need congress to step up to the plate and permanently fix what is broken about the immigration system. so congress is having a debate but they are focusing on the executive actions and not on a permanent reform. >> does it concern the white house -- concern you it may not be a top priority for americans who want to focus on the economy and jobs? >> well the president wants to focus on the economy and jobs as well and that is the focus of his speech tonight. he is going to be talking about middle class economics and the range of policy proposals, some of which he's announced already that are about making sure we're putting americans on a firm footing and our economy on a firm footing for the 21st century. >> and speaking of the economy and the middle class which is the focus for these speeches. senator mccain had thoughts on the tax hike on capital gains taxes and i will read what he had to say. no. i will not. let's listen to senator mccain. >> i understand the president's

message tonight. but why wouldn't he sit down with us and say, hey, let's work out tax reform. let's sit down together republicans and democrats, americans ss over all want tax reform. but we don't have to increase taxes and increase spending to do it. >> and cecilia, this isn't the first time republicans and democrats have had the same debate. but answer john mccain's question. >> i think we're very interested about talking about tax reform. the president has been putting forward ideas and he remains interested. he's put forward some proposals and some of the package actually have their roots in republican legislation offered by members of this very congress. so there is room for bipartisan conversation. but it is going to be important to the president that it focus especially on the middle class, making sure that people in the middle class, people fighting to get to the middle class, that we

use the tax system to make sure people can afford childcare and retirement and afford to send their children to college. that is where the president is folk is -- focused and his tax policies. >> and this idea of making community college free and there is backlash to that as well. how will that be paid for and does the press expect opposition on the hill? >> again. this is another bipartisan proposal. 'announced his plan in tennessee with governor haslem who is doing that in his state. the tax package put forward allows room to pay for the community college proposal. but it is something we can afford not to do. we need to have a work force with post secondary education that they can access for free in the same way we access high school now. he wants to have a work force prepared for the jobs we're bringing into this economy and the united states is prepared to

lead the world economically in the 21st century the way that we did in the 20th. this community college proposal is exactly on point to make sure we get there. >> well we will be watching tonight. cecilia munoz, thank you very much. and ahead of the state of the union, we are asking what issue matters to you the most. the economy, national security or immigration? go online to post.msnbc.com. and debbie wasser man schultz will join me on how to advance legislation that matters to the american people even as republicans hold the reins in congress. and crafting the message. adam frankel talks about the effort that goes into preparing the speech that speaks to every american. but soon the state of the union trivia for you. which president delivered the longest state of the union address? the answer when we come back.

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so if the past few months have been any indication tonight's state of the union address is likely to show case president obamas newly acquired seventh year swagger. republicans control both houses of congress but so far the democrats mid term drubbing has yielded a newly emboldened president who no longer needs to mince word to protect red state demes. and higher approval ratings and a rising economy to assets he plans to leverage in his fight to help the middle class. what can we expect from tonight's republican response? well for that we go to nbc's luke russert on capitol hill. all right, luke joni ernst steps into the spotlight.

what are we expecting to hear from her? >> reporter: well, joy, as we've talked about, joni ernst is very emblematic for the gop. they were very conservative in the primary. her campaign was and moderated her views and it became a campaign toward the end about personalities. that is what you'll see her do tonight, sell her personality as a war veteran and a pig farmer around this time last year and now giving the rebuttal to the president and that is a rise in politics right there. and mitch mcconnell said let's turn the page and find out where we can work together and be cognizant that the government is not the solution. sort of tried and tested old gop ideas but the selection by joni ernst has a lot more to do with personality than to do with policy. one thing mitch mcconnell said around the christmas holiday, he doesn't want republicans to be made out to be the bad guys in

the room. he is working hard to change the face of how they are being interpreted by americans. joni ernst is his attempt to do that. i expect it to be about personality and republican themes and not specifics to the president's speech. >> it is interesting. because the republicans acquired bower and were able to take over -- power and take over the house and the senate based this strategy and being the bad guys essentially, and saying they would give the president nothing. is it making heads spin on capitol hill that suddenly now that they are in charge now they want bipartisanship and warm nl and coziness and such? >> well i think a lot of democrats will say it is facetious. and you do hear that. but what is fascinating, joy, is mitch mcconnell the clever political player the best chess player in politics, he has the vulnerable blue state republicans from 2016 and he

realizes that what he did to a great electoral success doesn't work this time around. so whether or not that accounts for any results, we'll see. >> and people talked about mitt romney. and everybody is talking about it now. thank you. and debbie wasserman schultz is from florida and dsw, and one of the greatest followers on twitter. now let's talk about the democratic strategy. now you have a republican senate, what is the democrats' plan? is it an aggressive posture, the way republicans have been to you guys? >> we'll likely have all the way through president obama's first term and now through his second term in office, we'll continue to focus like a laser on continuing to push this economy forward and make sure that it is as robust as it can be. we've done that under his

presidency and we've had that over the last five years and 11 year low in gas prices and come out of the worst recession that we've seen since the great depression and now we need to build on that success and president obama will talk tonight in the state of the union about how we can do that and create more opportunities liken suring that going to college is universal and free. like we can do if we allow people to ensure that if they are sick they don't have to choose between getting their paycheck or staying home from work and making sure they can get better or take care of a sick child and ensure they are still able to be productive for their faulkmilies. like the tax reform the president is talking about, so everyone benefits from the tax reform, not just the wealthiest americans like the republicans have proposed. >> and the president has higher ratings an and going -- and

going in better than ever and there is this criticism of republicans being too stubborn but some say it is the president being too stubborn. will your colleagues be using the filibuster as aggressively as the republicans did. >> if the past is prologue i think yes. very likely they will be. the obstruction the hallmark of this republican congress and the house i think will now be adopted by the senate. and just the opening bell since the new congress began saw more repeals or huge modifications by the republicans to the affordable care act to take health care away from people. that they've made sure that they try to roll back the president's immigration policy so that we can kick more immigrants out of the country. this is not a signal they are ready to sit down and bond and work together. and then to add insult to

injury, they choose joni ernst to be the response for the state of the union. this is a woman that decided the best thing to do for education is to repeal the federal student loan program and opposes pell grants. college can't be paid for with a winning smile. it's going to take more than personality to make sure we can make life better to the middle class. >> i want to get two things in. you have two special guests with you. tell us about them. >> todd and jeff dell may are joining us. the second couple in florida to legally wed, the second lbgt couple to get married and i'm so excited to celebrate their civil rights not just in florida but across the country but also to signal we need more to do. we shouldn't rest on our laurels but keep on making progress. >> and once the american consulate is open more likely to be in tampa or miami? >> i think we need to focus on

first things first and that is to make sure that cuba while we're working on normalizations with them that works on human right and ceasing oppressing their people while we continue the discussions with them on how to normalize relations. that's what i'm looking for. >> very diplomatic. >> first things first. human rights. >> thank you congress woman. >> thank you. and now to what we've been asking viewers, what matters most to you heading into the state of the union. and we have been monitoring that and here is craig with the results. >> what matters to you most. he gave you three choices, economy, national security and immigration. over the past few hours we have not seen the numbers move a great deal. the overwhelming majority of folks who are weighing in on this issue say it is the economy. nearly three-fourths of

americans are saying that and we can break it down by party. and when you look at the numbers by party, democrats, republicans, independents as well, everyone is saying it is the economy. coming up in a few minutes we are going to look at how much the state of the union matters. you'd be surprised to find out how many things in the president's speech end up becoming law. that is in about 30 minutes. we'll have more on that as well. more on "the reid report" right after the break. ♪ health can change in a minute.

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and the president will give a coveted post-speech interview in the oval office to three you tube stars, asking questions from his supporters behind the tactics is the idea that while the president may be speaking tonight in front of a gop-controlled congress, through the power of the web he'll take his message to the people or should i say the twee-people online. women over 65 are the most engaged on facebook and in discussions about the state of the union. social media engines are capturing data like this, showing your top state of the union topics of concern. vice president joe biden also promoted the president's actual talking points using the popular site sound cloud. >> the question is how do we make it better and that's what the president is going to talk about. he's going to talk about how we can significantly improve opportunities for middle class americans. >> that is a smooth way to use social media to outmaneuver a

gop congress. and hash tags are popping off with your interest. and streaming behind me are your statements on what the state of the union means to you. this person said the state of the union is to america's have and have notes. and this is part -- part of the ski stone pipeline. and gop congressman mike turner tweeted tonight, president obama has an opportunity to present solutions and bring together elected officials to solve problems for all americans. and you can weigh in on that possible outcome on our readers twitter hash tag and join the conversation on facebook twitter and msnbc.com. and now this -- the white house is following up the state

of the union with the second annual big block of cheese day. and they've enlisting familiar west wingers to get the message out. >> hello. you feta believe it. >> gouda, idea. >> is this making you blue? because blue is a type of cheese. >> back in the day andrew jackson trucked in a two-ton truck of cheese. >> i'm on board. we're already doing the second annual big block of cheese day and we'll have senior white house officials online to answer questions that anybody wants to ask. guess what: your insurance company will only give you 37-thousand to replace it. "depreciation" they claim. "how can my car depreciate before it's first oil change?" you ask. maybe the better question is why do you have that insurance company?

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political, many of the most memorable lines are metropolitan to rally the nation behind the president's agenda. for instance stung by mid term losses, bill clinton turned to big government into a re-election mantra in 1996. >> we know and we have worked together the american people a smaller less bureaucratic government in washington. and we have to give the american people one that lives within its means. [ applause ] >> the era of big government is over. >> sometimes, however, the best lines are repped more for the irony. kate in point, richard -- case in point, richard nixon's in his final state of the union address. >> i have provided to the special prosecutor voluntarily a greet deal of-- great deal of

material. i believe i provided all of the material he needs to conclude his investigations to proceed to prosecute the guilty and to clear the innocent. i believe the time has come to bring that investigation and the other investigations of this matter to an end. one year of water-gate is enough. >> and then there are those moments that are remembered for matters of war and foreign policy. in 1862 for example, when the address was shorter and merely hand delivered to congress in writing. abraham lincoln wrote of the fiery trial of war saying we shall nobly savor meanly lose the last best hope of earth. and fdr speaking in 1941 when war broke out in europe told the country, we look forward to a world found for essential human freedoms. but the most memorable state of the union are the ones that are memorable for all of the wrong

reasons. >> states like these and their terrorist allies constitute an axis of evil arming to threaten the peace of the world by seeking weapons of mass destruction. these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. >> adam frankel is a former speech writer for president obama who helped to write several of the state of the union speeches. adam thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> let's talk about the process of writing with this particular president who is himself a writer. how much does he allow his speech writers to actually put on paper? >> in general state of the union is similar to other speeches. a process starts a couple of months out and the president gives feedback. and every speech starts with the question, what is the story we are trying to tell. the president will get very involved and he'll outline whole sections, give the speech writer detail about how to scope out the speech. >> it feels like other speeches

state of the union feel like it has been added to and added to because they are long and tend to go in a million different directions. that is where you start with a 20-minute speech but by the time you cover everything it is longer. >> everyone starts off with the lofty aspirations and it ends up being long. in white houses they are written by committee. that is what you find going back in other white houses and in this white house it is not often the same. >> in every one of the speeches especially the state of the union, the pause for applause lines are key. are they written with that in mind that they are trying to solicit hollers and boots of approval from their own side and maybe even sometimes draw out the other side with things they know they will oppose. >> this president has been criticized for lack of applause lines, his view and our writers are for the best applause lines

and for the point you are trying to make. so when you write applause lines, it often not contributing to the speech. >> and the white house is trying to attract younger audiences or younger americans in things such as community college. looking at who watches, the demographics show the women over 65 are the most talking about the state of the union and then goes down to men 65 plus or men 55-64. and how do you craft a speech that long and try to make it interesting and appealing to a younger audience. >> first pig out what you are trying to say. what are the story you are trying to tell and the policies you are trying to advance. this administration is trying to figure out new ways to reach people. and people talk about the bully pulpit but the state of the heedia is where you can do it --

media is where you can do it. and the fact is more americans will be checking in than with a case of the vast majority of the students. >> you could just have a skit in there. >> yes. >> and knowing this president's team do you expect any surprises tonight? >> few things about this president. he likes things locked and he likes things well planned in advance so i'm not expecting a lot. >> we'll be watching. adam frankel, thank you. >> thank you very much. and coming up how do the president's priorities line up with what the american people want. results from our poll are up ahead. and another bit of trivia for you. between 1965 to 2002 success of

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we are back and continuing to monitor your feedback about what you expect to here from tonight's state of the union address. craig melvin has been keeping an eye on our polls. what is at the top of people's agendas. >> we are asking folks, what matters most economy, national security or immigration. and we have not seen the numbers shift a great deal throughout the course of the day. 76%, three quarters of the folks taking the poll say it is the economy. this is something else that we want to talk about here really quickly. some folks say the state of the union doesn't really matter. it is just the president giving a big speech in january. not true. in fact we looked at over the course of the last 40 years, 43% successive legislative action proposes in the state of the

union address, 43%. and you can see over the course of the years, you can see that -- where some of the speeches -- lbj in 1965. legislative proposal success rate. and this is bill clinton and this is just a snippet of his state of the union. >> there is nothing on earth that should stop congress to banishing assault weapons that cut down police and children. >> that is president clinton talking about at salt weapons -- the assault weapons ban and as a result of that that came to legislation. and during divided government, 41%, a success rate higher than most might realize and we want to give some folks per spect--

perspective as well. and joining me analyst, and casey hunt. and we have formed panel vol tron. let's talk about the state of the union. i'm coming at you michael steel. let's talk about the issue of tone because i've been reading the back and forth between writers online like those online and others that are going back and forth saying that the president needs to come out and set this positive tone. and mcconnell and the senate majority leader and his question of tone now and back then. >> tonight is a big moment for the president. and for our country. the tone he strikes and the issues he highlights will tell us a lot about what to expect in

his presidency's final act. >> our top priority over the next few years should be to deny president obama a second term. >> why is it that the gop wants this bipartisan tone only when they are in power and only from the president, but they haven't operated that way for the last six years. >> they haven't. but that is the way it works. when you are the out-party you try to find the advantage and set this expectation bar that you then go back and undermine one way or the other. that is what will happen. the fact is the president will set a tone and not one that the republicans in the house or the senate will appreciate. and you'll hear that immediately afterwards. but this is the president's moment. this is less speaking to the congress and more speaking to the country. and that is where, for the white house at least, the tone will really matter. how republicans ultimately respond to that i think, should be one of mr. president, thank you for setting your agenda and now this is how we think we

should move forward and that is what you'll see worked out on the back end but that likely won't happen. i think they will be respectful and not get the cat calls. >> no you lie. >> and i don't expect them to speak out but it will be muted. >> bill clinton said we're going to end the era of big government and he still wound up in impeachment over a sexual affair it. didn't change the attitude of congress toward him for him to adopt their policies? >> no. but can i say something. there is an extent to which this president is adopting a lot of republican policies. the framing of these proposals, leaving aside community college, do it through the tax code and that is a republican idea and the society and the expansion of government programs.

no let taxpayers keep money in their own pockets and let them spend it their own way. and it is ronald reagan's capital tax level. and he could be sincere and reach across the aisle and say join me. >> and do you feel that joan is right, that the policy bar has moved to the right in germ and their policies have gotten adopted? >> i think there was a broad backlash against this idea of big government and it came in large part from republicans in backlash to george bush and his levels of spending. but the proposals of the president on this tax plan orian has supported the earned income tax credit in the past

but i think what the president is doing is laying down a marker because i think democrats in congress have often felt when they start negotiating closer to the middle they even up with less than they thought they would. this sort of lays out a strategy for going forward. the other thing i would say too is that -- paul ryan i was talking to one of his aides and they believe and have said in public that the president is playing base politics with this tax plan and saying we want to fire up our liberal base. but if i've been listening a lot to republicans lately and democrats aren't the only ones talking about this issue of rising wages. you have mitt romney coming out in a speech on monday saying i want to raise the minimum wage. >> mitt romney being for the poor is the mindset. >> we have to get used to it. >> and it does feel like the republican party is trying to re-set it which is a complete 180 turn in this populous direction but does that have any

residence with the american people. >> i think it is. and it is on line with what case they have said. and it is a shift toward the right and that is a noise spice for -- a nice space for republicans to talk. and who will do it is the question. but if it is travelled in minutia and people are entangled in public policy then it won't go anywhere. >> we'll come back on the other side of the break. we have much more to discuss on the state of the union right after this break. with the incredible fuel efficiency of 38 miles-per-gallon highway you can feel like royalty in the nissan altima.

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bill clinton. and back with me salon.com, joan walsh and michael steel and casey hunt. bill clinton can talk. but i can relate. mine would be two hours too. and let's talk about one other policy sure to get applause on one side of the chamber, and that is immigration reform. 52% of americans in our poll say they approve of the executive action but it is not high on the priority list for americans. >> it is not high on the priority list because the president has done something to take it off the agenda. i think that is surprising because it has been below 50% and the basis of the republican crusade against it is that it is vastly unpopular with the american people. 52% is a strong enough. >> it is a strong number. and there will be visual push-back and marco rubio that will have a guest and push back

on that. but back to 2016 you do have rubio making a statement about the cuba policy and pushing back on. >> that and let as talk about joni ernst and i'll start with you, kacie, is this the rising star that is seen as a potential 2016 contender? is she on the scene as a potential vice president running mate how is she viewed on the hill? >> i think she's viewed as the woman that everybody most wants to take to the dance with them. this is more about setting up the 2016 caucuses and looking for support and trying to mike sure they -- make sure they can get that key endorsement from joni ernst and you saw that when she kaz campaigning in 2014. every one of the potential 2016 presidential contenders trapsed through to help her. marco rubio and rand paul u. name them and she was there.

and she is the first woman elected to a federal office in iowa. that is a big deal. there is only one state, mississippi, never sending a woman to a federal office and she's a veteran. i've interviewed her. she's very sharp. she learned a lot over the course of that campaign. she grew tremendously from beginning to end and i think republicans see her as a rising star. >> and she supplemented arch conservative positions and moved herself, the opposite task that cruz used when he was climbing to a star. >> she wants to play a major role and be a major player in the body politic and i think she's taking -- as casey said she's doing a lot and tonight she will speak to the nation on behalf of the republicans and i think it will go well for her. and i think beyond that you'll

see work hoarding of her leading into the iowa caucuses. >> i want to ask you what you think will be the big headline to come out of the state of the union address. what do you think of the top headline in the washington post will be tomorrow? >> i think it will be the new obama tax initiative. on fox it will be obama warfare against the rich or the comfortable. >> i think it will be so much for tax reform. at the end of the day, as everyone is concluding this is a nonstarter. this is the president talking into the congressional wind. >> and i think it be obama confronts the republican party. everything we've seen from him so far in this quote, unquote, lame duck has been anything but lame duck. it has been forward and in your face and that is what we are looking to see tonight. >> it is interesting that all of you positioned it as something that places the white house in this non-lake dumb posture. he has not been con sil yiciliatory

since the election and do you think he is obliterated from the blue dogs. >> absolutely. the ability to save some of the red state democrats really crimped the president's style and other democrats. those people lost even with the cautious strategy so now i think he's free and he wants to lay out a progressive agenda for the past two years. >> the challenge is getting the senate back in two years. so you tread that path very carefully because all of a sudden will you see a different conversation and hear a different conversation in 18 months. >> and in the senate casey, now they do have a more democratic caucus. is the anticipation they will be forward-leaning in terms of filibusters to slow down or stop the republican agenda that mitch mcconnell championed for six solid years? >> i think so. one of the things that is an interesting trend to watch is

the tension between the liberal and many of them new freshman or the middle of their first term senators as opposed to the group that lost this time around. and i think harry reid has been interested in seeing that more liberal group rise up and it will be a fascinating story to see how he manages going head to head with mitch mcconnell and where the president falls in that. i have a suspicion he and harry reid will not be on the same page. >> and the president is now dealing with a different dynamic in the house with john boehner who will not be able to say the senate can't pass this. michael steele give us what you think boner will do coming into 2015. he will say i can't listen to that and i won't even put it on the floor. >> he will put some variance of it -- i think he will deconstruct the positions of the president aez president's effort put forward. but i think they'll package what

they like and send it to the president. >> and we're going to see vetoes. >> and that is on tax policy. >> and i don't know if he would veto that -- veto his taxes on tax policy without the hike. >> and watch trade too. that is the other sticking point. >> we'll watch trade and tax and politics that we love so much. thank you guys for being here and forming this panel with me. i appreciate it. that does wrap things up for "the reid report" and i'll see you tomorrow and we'll have a wrap of the state of the union. and don't miss the special coverage with rachel maddow coming up tonight. and "the cycle" is up next. and did i have my panel? touray is looking good. >> and we have a special day and a lot of stuff coming up. and congress peter welch is back from cuba and ari with a behind the scenes look and i'm going to

explain why the conventional beltway wisdom get this is speech all wrong. >> the beltway wisdom. all right. "the cycle" is up next. und good? great. because you're not you you're a whole airline... and it's not a ticket you're upgrading it's your entire operations, from domestic to international... which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. from workforce strategies to tech solutions and a thousand other things. so you call pwc. the right people to get the extraordinary done. ♪ ♪

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symmetrical all-wheel drive plus 34 mpg. love. it's what makes a subaru a subaru. it is tuesday, january 20th good afternoon i'm krystal ball and i believe the state of the union is improving but unequal. >> i'm ari melbourne and i believe it is as the founders intended. >> i believe it is full of home. >> and i'm in for toure and i believe the state of the union is better than you think it is. but what do you believe? all right, everyone. it is six hours away from president obama's sixth official state of the union address.