ours away from perhaps the most ambitious speech of the obama presidency. it's tuesday, january 20th and this is "now." >> just hours away from president obama's sixth state of the union. >> the president's state of the union address. >> the speech that sets the agenda for the new year. >> he'll be outlining his agenda for the first time before a republican-led congress. >> the president has vowed to go on offense. >> he's going to make a case tonight. >> how to prove to the country that his agenda isn't going to go away. >> a lot of what he's going to lay out tonight will run into a buzz saw that is the united states congress. >> was there a moment or a meeting when the president said, screw it let's go for broke in these last two years? >> no. at least not in the meeting i

attended. >> he's laying out a democratic playbook. >> isn't it some kind of trap to simply get republicans in a bad spot as the 2016 election approaches? >> the president has run his last campaign. the speech is in quote, very good shape. the stage is set, or in this case the rostrum is set, in t-minus five hours. this time he is pulling out all the stops. moments ago, the president met with four of the citizens for tonight's address. he laid out his pitch. >> after the sixth time i suspect i'm a little more relaxed and a little better at it than the first time out. america is now in a position to really turn the page. the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.6%.

we have seen manufacturing come back. we have cut our deficits. gas prices have dropped, and so we are well positioned for the future. >> this year's state of the union will be president obama's first to a congress entirely controlled by republicans. but judging by the content of it that has not taken any wind out of his sails. he will talk about new infrastructure funding, free community college tuition, and paid sick leave for families. the proposals have earned near universal praise from members of his own party and near universal condemnation from the other, don demonstrate nation that will emanate from all corners of the republican universe this evening. tonight the grand ole party will

give three state of the union response, including a rebuttal from senator rand paul. joining me now is the host of "all in" chris hayes and howard dean. two great people to be starting off this big game night with. >> we are pretty great. >> we described this raft of big policy proposals and in some ways that feels exhilarating. is this what success looks like? >> yes. i do think -- the big question for me particularly on this tax stuff is what the budget politics look like in the past two years and whether or not you have this high growth means that republicans are willing to make some deals on the budget. for instance on this tax thing,

you can imagine a world where republicans say we like the tax cut part and blow up the deficit a little bit. i can see it happening. i can see democrats going for that. there are deals to be had. the question is are republicans interested in making these deals? they have not been up until this point, but on budget stuff it is a little different from grand policy proposals. >> so governor dean is this -- i want to know what you think the implications are for the president's own party, because on some level this is about reconfiguring the playing field because we have been in a deficit conversation for so long. at the same time, david posits that the person president obama is thinking of here is hillary clinton and he does not trust her to reset the scales if she is the 2016 nominee. >> that kind of talk is just silly

silly. it's speculation and nonsense. the president doesn't have the congress. the facts are he is going up in popularity because he is acting in spite of the congress. this just gives him a bully pulpit to lay out an agenda. the really smart thing about this politically is he gets to then go to the public and say, this is my agenda. the republicans didn't act on it. can you trust the republicans in the white house in 2016? and the answer is going to be no. it's going to be an interesting speech. there's a lot going on here. it doesn't have very much to do with hillary clinton. >> it also has a great deal to do with the grand ole party. this tax party has been floated since this weekend. as of right now, republicans appear to be playing exactly the playbook that the democrats hoped they would. sort of fractious, indignant. the best way to not get baited

is don't take the bait. >> the achilles heel -- this is true in 2012 and it will be true in 2016 -- is they are the party of the rich and they have a donor class. we're seeing the invisible primaries starting to rally. they really want tax cuts for the reach. rupert murdoch said i pay enough in taxes already. they can't help but be for tax cuts for the reach. anyone who is jockeying for that nomination can't go around and say i want to raise taxes on the rich, even if it is politically popular.

>> i know chris has talked about this too. the very fact mitt romney is talking about poverty, regardless of how sincere that rhetoric is is evidence that republicans know they have to do something differently. >> that's the jengenius of what the president may say tonight. the republicans cannot win the presidency as long as they are anti-gay, anti-muslim, anti-everybody except for the 1%. they know that. they're smart. they're trying to make the turn. they're trying to soften their rhetoric, but this puts the policy ball in their court just exactly the way chris said it. they have to vote on who gets the tax cut and who is going to pay for it. if the president is smart, he'll say, wait a minute this is not the conservative thing to do. i'm going to be the conservative and we'll have a balanced budget and not let you spend more money

on the top 1% while you're hurting the middle class. there will be a part of the republican party that takes this bait and that will give mitch mcconnell and john boehner fits. >> you talk about fits there is this kind of gut check that the republican party has been doing for years now about which wing is powerful. the fact that joanie earnest is delivering the response -- she wanted to ban abortions and many forms of birth control, privatizing social security impeaching president. people on medicaid have no responsibility for their personal health. dismisses the federal minimum wage as ridiculous. economically, she represents the tea party wing of the party. >> there's four or five or six

folks i would say in this freshman senate class that have those politics with that general vision. she's representative of where i think the center of gravity is going to be. we saw that with the whole shutdown drama and ted cruz. everyone is going to be making senatorial calculations based on what they think is going to help them with primary voters in 2016. that is going to assert its even more strongly. >> she's not even giving the official tea party response, right? that's being given by curt clausen in florida. here is someone that very much embodies the tea party in its most successful incarnation, and yet the tea party feels she is not the proper ambassador for their message. >> the republicans are in a

really deep hole. they have built their whole party around white christian men. and the country doesn't look like that anymore, so their problem is they throw these tokens. they have hispanic stars, african-american stars, women stars. that was the politics of 40 years ago. you put up the token person and they give a great speech. women voters african-american voters, hispanic voters are much more sophisticated today. they're not going to vote solely on the basis of gender and color. they actually listen to what people say. joanie earnest and what she says is unappealing to the country. >> i'm not sure one can dismiss -- i think there are a lot of ways to unpack what the various people of color in the

republican party stand for tokenism. they have a lot more diversity in terms of color but sheer number of candidates. >> the results were pretty clear. >> speaking of 2016 what is rand paul doing? >> i think rand paul has a fairly good talent for attention. you know this is an opportunity for more attention. i think he's -- look he is trying to sort of preserve this kind of special space that's carved out, which is a space that was carved out by his father. the question is, can he continue to build that base without aillien alienating people outside of it?

>> oh the million dollar question. >> i think rand paul really does see himself as an independent brand. that independent brand revolves around the paul name. he wants to continue to occupy space that feels distinct from the republican party. if you win a major party's nomination in this country, you have a floor of about 45%. why not run, right? if you win the primary -- if i said to you, you have a 45% chance of being next president. >> i think numbers would be slightly lower for me in particular. >> if you win that nomination you're within, you know a few percentage points of a coin

toss. that's sort of baked in structurally into the way it is. they're going to be right there. >> the hey, why not, candidacy. always good to see you guys. thank you for your time. you can see "all in" weekdays at 8:00 p.m. coming up one year after president obama declared that it was time to move off a permanent war footing, the white house is expected to ask congress for new authorization for the use of military force. plus, a new video and a new threat. isis is demanding $200 million in exchange for two japanese hostages. we'll discuss the latest on that coming up next. ocolate is my other favorite... but apple cinnamon is my favorite too... and fruity...

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a new isis hostage video released overnight as given the japanese government 72 hours to pay $200 million or have two of its citizens executed. specifically the man on the left a freelance journalist and on the right a private citizen. the isis militant in the video is believed to be the british man known has jihadi john saying it was a direct response to shinzo abe's pledge this weekend to contribute $200 million to nonlethal assistance to the international campaign against isis. >> he announced that japan would continue to provide the aide to fight isis although he did not say japan would pay a ransom.

a new u.n. report accuses isis of more this month. tonight president obama is expected to outline his strategy against isis in the state of the union address, even as it comes under attack from his foes on the hill. >> what is the strategy to degrade and defeat isis, which the president articulated? i would love to hear that tonight. you're not going to hear it because there is no strategy. >> joining me now is edmond coleman and brian catulis. what do you think japan goes on this question? >> flooesat least in the context of iraq back in 2004 there was a

japanese national who was captured by al qaeda in iraq. he was beheaded on camera. the presumption is japan had not paid ransom there. have they paid $200 million? no. the ransoms have been in the single of millions of dollars. there's no way they're paying $200 million in ransom even if they have paid ransoms previously. >> most of the time governments do not acknowledge they have paid ransoms to free citizens but do we have any sense of the negotiations that go on behind closed doors? is there back and forth negotiation? >> there is. the hostage will send a message to their family and they'll include a demand on how much money and where it is to be delivered and it all takes place behind the scenes. once you see someone appear on

camera in public if there was a ransom offer, it was rejected and there is no ransom going to be paid. >> it is an end stage. >> this is drama for public consumption. it is not actually negotiation. they don't ask for $200 million because they know they're not going to get it. >> brian in terms of the hostage taking and how it has frayed, or i guess you could assert it strengthened in coalition against isis, what does this latest piece do bringing japan fully to the forefront of the stage in the theater of islamic state? >> last fall after the beheadings of american journalists, president obama built a pretty robust international coalition. to have japan linked into this in this unfortunate way demonstrates many in the international community are working together to try to defeat this threat and, in fact

this ransom demand comes in reaction as to your outline there to japan donating to this effort. it should further embolden folks. it is a sign of desperation on the part of the islamic state. to get attention and to try to scare people. i think the most important thing is that we actually have a clearer debate about not only what we're doing against isis in iraq, but as senator mccain highlighted, what's going on in syria as well. >> on that note let me follow up. how is the campaign going in syria? we wanted to show a map of how isis has advanced in the country, but it is very hard to sort of -- there are no full sort of vetted accounts of exactly where the situation is on the ground due in some part to the fact there are no u.s. military boots on the ground

there and then there is very little intel and no reporting. how do we even know what's going on over there at this point? >> you get spotty reporting. even that spotty reporting isn't very optimistic. our air campaign has obviously taken out some dangerous terrorist networks but it has also had the effect of squeezing the moderate option. those that were going to be our ground force. we're slowly starting to program to try to train them up. but the consequence of how we have conducted our air campaign has not given much room for those who would be our allies on the ground. president obama quite wisely said we don't want to go in. we're not going to go in with troops on the ground in syria. it wouldn't make much sense. it is an incomplete strategy. iraq is clearer. we have some potential partners there. not that it is going to be easy or simple but at least we have a theory of the case.

in syria, unfortunately, the tragedy goes on there. >> evan to our lack of information and lack of trance transparency, the two japanese hostages was new to most people. the >> we have an approximate idea. they haven't confirmed they are holding her. we don't know about them. we don't really know exactly how many foreign nationals are there. there are certain facts that are disturbing here. how much progress are we really making towards resolving this problem? in the past few weeks, there was a significant attack on saudis border guards. this problem is expanding. it is not shrinking.

they are building a huge border fence. they are trying to isolate themselves and it is not going to work. we need to take a serious look on whether or not we have done right now is making progress towards freeing hostages towards resolving the situation in syria and iraq and i'm not sure we can credibly make that case. >> the administration is rethinking its stance towards beshard -- the training of the rebels, which he mentioned, to fight isis and the u.s. bombing of isis and not the syrian military is proof that washington now believes that if mr. asaad is ousted do you think those reports are accurate? >> i think it is a little more complicated than that. i think the administration is

stuck between the statements it made a couple years ago saying asaad would fall. i think it is going to be difficult for the united states and the international community to overlook the stacks of tens and thousands of bodies and the killings that the outside regime has conducted. all we have right now is an air campaign in syria. president obama outlined yemen as a case study of this is where we have done this before. yemen, it is utter chaos. this challenge to this approach doesn't produce sustainable security environments. i think that's the fundamental challenge inside of syria. >> i think a lot of people would say the answer to that question is no. thank you guys both for your time. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. coming up we asked you what issues matter most ahead of this

year's state of the union. we'll break down your responses. plus how many state of the union priorities end up enacted. on average, it is more than you think. that's next. ♪ ♪

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. we want to know what matters to you in tonight's state of the union address. craig melvin has been monitoring responses to our survey on pulse. what are the people saying and do we know if the president is going to give them what they want? >> we don't know whether the president is going to give them what they want but we do know we've been asking this question. what matters to you most? economy, national security

immigration. 76% say the economy. 3/4 say the economy matters most to them. even when you break it down by party, which we have been doing throughout the day, the numbers stay the same. a lot of folks will say it's the state of the union. it doesn't really matter. the president is going to give this big speech. no one really cares. the reality is actually the opposite. 43%, that's the success of legislative action proposed in an address what that means is the president will say this is what i want to do. 43% of the time it's actually happened. the high mark 1965 with lbj 75% legislative proposal success rate. even when there's a divided government, that remains the case. president clinton in 1994 is an example.

take a listen. >> there is no sporting purpose on earth that should stop the united states congress from banishing assault weapons that outman police and cut down children. >> that's president clinton calling for a ban on assault weapons in 1994. 41% of the time the president's wishes are acted on by congress. we should note we're going to wrap this part up at 6:00. during the speech the course of the state of the union, you can go to the website. you can go to bing there, msnbc, and you can weigh in during the course of the speech. live reaction during the speech. you can emote and we'll share those emotions with you a little bit later. >> you can emote. i hope they give you a giant mouse for that giant screen. >> i don't think we need that.

>> maybe two foot mouse. >> that could be fun. that could be fun. >> at any rate, that is awesome. awesome graphics. everybody should tune in for more and log on for more. my friend craig melvin, thank you. just ahead we have heard a lot about the president's tax plan, but what about everything else? i'll speak with a white house communications director just after the break. music: melodic, calm music. don't miss the princess cruises 50th anniversary sale. our biggest sale ever. save up to $500 per person. everywhere we sail... ... all around the world. call your travel consultant, or 1-800-princess. princess cruises. come back new.

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america must move off a permanent war footing. hundreds of u.s. troops will be deployed to the middle east to train syrian rebels as part of the fight against isis. last week the president acknowledged the odds of -- since his first state of the union address in 2009 the president has vowed to close the detention facility at guantanamo bay. although the white house secured the transfer of five more detainees, gitmo remains open with 122 prisoners. then there's the looming court battle over the affordable care act. that is supposed to be heard by the supreme court this march. joining me now is the white house director of communications, jennifer pal palmieri. >> it is a great day. thanks for having me. good to be with you. >> let me start with the supreme

court because we know that there was that i will say awkward moment. is he thinking about the nine justices who will be sitting before him this evening given the fact that the aca, the fate of it hangs in the balance? >> i think he's going to be more focused on the audience of the american people that will be watching this speech. in terms of aca and the lawsuit, we think the best argument is that the law is working. we have 10 million people who now have health care under the law. it is helping in bringing the health care cost of inflation down. what we want to show people is that the law is working. we're very confident about the legal case behind it but moreover that the law is delivering on what it promised to do and we think that to have

more people enroll it for the second year -- we think showing the success of the law is probably the best defense of it. but when he's talking tonight, i think he's really going to be focused on talking to the american people and, you know not so much the supreme court justices or the others in the room. >> certainly making a case to the american public could also push congress to move or at least acknowledge, that the work is theirs to be done on fixing parts of the law that are maybe up for debate. let me go to citizens united. we had some early reports that the president might take on that case or say something about how the administration will use action. should we be looking out for that this evening? >> i think you'll hear the president broadly, particularly towards the end of the speech about the need -- about the fact he believes the country is not as divided as it may appear when

you look at it through a political lens and the need to do more work to improve our politics and to bring the country together. i don't want to give away too much but i think you're going to hear him address that. >> of the things that have been given away and released to the president, we know the president's tax plan is a signature piece of the state of the union address. i spoke to josh earnest yesterday in the west wing. i wonder how you guys think of the characterization of this administration as a robin hood. do you guys agree with that? >> we don't think of it in those terms. the way we're looking at it is the american people have come back from a very difficult economic recession. we are now at the point where -- the president says to us the last two years are all about

closing the gap for the middle class. this speech is the opportunity for the president to tell the american people these are the steps we need to take in order to do that and give them that opportunity. we're looking at it in terms of how we finish the job that he set out to do. this is the challenge of his generation to make sure that middle class has the opportunity to grow and expand so we're not looking at it in terms of a robin hood. >> do you take issue with the characterization at the heart of this is redistribution moving money around? >> yeah we do. the president will brand this tonight as his theory of middle class economics. we have had trickle down economics. the economy can't success if you don't have a strong middle class. that's intrinsic. you need to have a strong middle class with buying power. that's how the economy runs so it is quite -- it is to our

detriment that we continue to have this wealth gap. these are the steps that we can take to help broaden the middle class. >> i want to switch gears a little bit to foreign policy. i wonder if you think we are moving off permanent war footing. that certainly doesn't seem like a digression away from battle. i wonder what you guys think of that internally in the white house. >> the president came in here and promised to end the combat of two wars in iraq and afghanistan. he has done that. we continue to have a presence that is not a noncombat role in afghanistan. the world is a dangerous place. there's a lot of threats. it is ever evolving.

we're very vigilant about combatting those threats, but what you do see is this president taking an approach that shows we have learned lessons from iraq and afghanistan. for example, when we're combatting isil in iraq and syria, we have done it with the support of arab nations. the first time we did this bombing run we did it with arab nations flying with us. the united states is always going to have to protect itself. it's always going to have to lead the world in protecting itself, and we will always do that, but we'll do that in a smarter way. >> in terms of those lessons, jen, i know you have seen the images of the two japanese hostages that may be beheaded unless the japanese government pays a ransom of $200 million there. i wonder given the fact this has been a priority for the president since he first took office do you think this is the

year you can close gitmo or get the prison population down to a target number of 60 prisoners? >> i can't guarantee numbers standing here today, but the president is very committed to this. he is very focused on this. it's a really difficult process. hard things are hard. you see that number starting to continue to go down. it takes a lot of work. it takes a lot of effort diplomatically. it's something that he spends a lot of time on himself and he's going to stay at it but it is a difficult process. >> jennifer palmieri thank you for your time. >> thanks. coming up america just had it best year of job growth since president clinton was in office. too bad its wages are stuck in the reagan era. more than on that just ahead.

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on the eve of tonight's state of the union address, if you believe the numbers, things are looking good for president obama. according to a new poll released today, more americans, 45%, are satisfied with the economy today than at any point in the past decade and 49% approve of the president's handling of the economy the most since his first

year in office. these numbers come on the heels of the strongest year for american job growth since the 1990s with unemployment at 5.6% and as gas prices continue to drop putting more money in the pockets of americans. but while this is all positive almost nothing has been done to lift wages. wages which have been stagnant for decades and that stagnation has settled in as american inequality has worsened to its highest levels since the great depression. thanks for joining me. you wrote a piece a couple of weeks ago about whether or not this was truly mourning in america. how much do you think oil prices have a buoying effect? >> a lot of their spending is going to gas. these are people who very often

might live in a suburb. they commute. when gas prices drop they find themselves with a lot more money than they thought they had. what is helping consumer confidence is the fact the unemployment rate has come down significantly. the dark cloud is waging and earnings. if you're holding your breath waiting for that to turn around you would be long since dead since economists talking about wage increases going to happen. >> if you kind of drill down a little bit deeper and you talk about wages and the health of the american worker you have a piece in new york about a family of six trying to survive on fast

food wages. i want you to take a little bit of time to tell us about the findings. all four are fast food workers. scraping by i think is being generous in terms of how much wiggle room they have when it comes to survival. >> this is this great family. everybody who is of working age has a job. it's really difficult to support a family on minimum wage. they were living in a studio apartment. the patriarch of the family, louis, he had medical issues. there is no safety net when you're earning so little. they had very meager savings, even though they made a point of saving. they spent them all down when they had that happen.

there are so many families that have had that. this is a really common phenomenon that even as things are getting better families still feel fragile. maybe that's starting to turn around. >> in the piece, you talk about luis fighting for a $15 minimum wage for his family. do you think the debate is moving? do you think the issue of workers living wage is, in fact gathering steam and the lines on the trend chart will change? >> the unemployment rate continues to come down. that puts some pressure on employers to start lifting wages. a lot of state and local

governments have lifted their wage interiorfloors. that's effecting millions of workers. and either lifting their wages or tying them into inflation is a good thing to do. health spending remains really low. health inflation remains really low and that helps over the long term to leave a little more breathing room for employers to raise wages, to give people raises as well. that's part of what happened and why the 90s felt so good to families. that showed up in people's paychecks eventually. >> it's a great piece. thanks for joining us. coming up, in mike huckabee huckabee's new book he describes beyonce as mental poison. that is next.

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one week after criticizing the president and first lady for letting their daughters listen to beyonce, who songs he referred to as mental poison, mike huckabee ventured over to "the daily show." >> the thing that disturbs me about when you see beyonce, who is a role model to young girls. >> sure. right. >> do you know any parent who says if you make really good grades someday we'll get you your own stripper pole? >> jon stewart pointed out the hypocrisy. >> you can't single out a corrosive culture and ignore the one you live in because you're

used to it and you don't feel that it's -- >> i want you to read the book and find -- >> oh i did. it ain't shakespeare. >> perhaps "the ed show" picks up our coverage. good evening americans. welcome to "the ed show" live from washington, d.c. let's get to work. >> isn't it a great day to be a republican? >> joanie will be delivering the response to the state of the union. >> i love castrating hogs on an iowa farm. >> she is a perfect choice. >> that woman is an onion of crazy. >> i do believe in the right to carry.