. all right, that is "all in" for this evening. two hours before all unessential vehicles have to be off of the road in the city. i hand it off to rachel maddow. >> thank you for joining us this hour. this is totally normal right? it is 9:00 right now on the east coast where seven states are in a state of emergency. as of right now 9:00 p.m. eastern, no private cars are allowed on the road in the entire state of connecticut. a full travel ban in effect for

all connecticut roads. it has been illegal to drive in boston for an hour already. that will extend to all of massachusetts as of midnight tonight. in rhode island another ban tonight at midnight and car travel will be banned as of 11:00 p.m. torrent. governor comeaukoe cuomo said anyone kaulgt can expect a $300 fine for driving during this emergency. in massachusetts, it's a bigger fine. the brand new governor charlie baker says the fine for anyone caught traveling after midnight tonight will be $500. just for driving. if you want to get around by some means other than driving,

you're out of luck. transit systems are down tonight. will be shut down tomorrow on the affected areas and it's a very large chunk of the country affected by this storm. it's something like 30 million americans in the path of this giant snowstorm to get a sense of just how big this storm is and how worried authorities are about it consider one, a remarkable decision made today. new york can take it take a lot, and has dealt with a lot over it's long history. in the 100 plus year history of the subway system it has never been shut down for a snowstorm. tonight, it will be shut down for a snowstorm, the first time that has happened in the

history. when thousands of flights were canceled today throughout the northeast, that created big disruptive ripples across the could be try. this is the misery map showing flight cancel police stations. flight aware posted this online. green on this map means that flights are on time, red means cancellations and delays. new york is shut down but places like denver or san francisco, they're not directed by the storm, but a huge portion of their flights are canceled as well. the air travel effects of this are nationwide. they will take a long time to unwind. even in politics tonight in the house of representatives they called off votes scheduled tonight in the house. it's not because dc list get

walloped they will probably only get a few inches but there are so many members from the northeast that scheduling votes tonight just didn't make sense for people being able to get in and out of washington. the cancellation of the votes in the house tonight is also probably going to give the republicans a very convenient out for thar antiimmigration bill they thought they would pass this week but it started falling apart on their own side. now they have a very great excuse for delaying the vote. basically what is going on tonight is there is a big portion of the country getting absolutely thumped with snow. the word tonight is that people should just stay down. hunker down. the word from all of the governors in all of the affected states tonight is this is not a storm you want to pick a fight with. >> do not take this lightly. i know we have gone through a number of storms and people tend

to be a little casual about it. this is not a time to be kushl. >> you never know how bad the conditions are going to be. here is one thing we know for sure. starting later this afternoon, you should stay home if you can. you should only go out in the case of an absolute emergency or necessity. >> i have a simple message for the people of rhode island. use today to prepare. the storm is coming it will be the most severe storm that we have seen in years, maybe decades, and i need you to keep yourself and your loved ones safe. we have today to prepare so hunker down. >> joining us now is bill karens. thank you for joining us. i know it has been a big day and big night already. what is the progress of the storm? >> sorry, i snuck up by you, i was supposed today be over there and i snuck up on you. i just got done looking at a lot

of information. new stuff is coming in. a few areas, it's not like storm is over, but the forecast does not look as bad as it did. that will get a lot of headlines. there is still a blizzard warning in effect. we'll wait and see if they make some changes. i did take new york down from 16 to 20 inches down to 12 or 14. maybe only another seven or ten inches coming. the storm, it is still off of the coast, we're starting to see the winds pick up the bans are coming back at us from the ocean. so, you know it is always risky as a forecaster to make chanceges before you get to the peak of the storm. but the big one with the thunder will state out towards long

island, providence, hartford. they went down to about 12 or 18. still a significant storm. as far as people losing power, being stuck in their homes, i think it will mostly be isolated to the eastern half of rhode island. cape cod looks colder and snowier now. just because one area gets a little improvement, philadelphia, new york city, it's like a ripple effect. it's almost a little worse now. boston getting nailed. all of those areas still getting hit hard by the storm with two to three feet and there will still be a spot i'm sure somewhere, that could pick up three feet or plus. so it's not like the storm is over or called off, but you know how it works. if they say possible historic, it ends up being a huge snow

fall, we'll take heat regardless. >> it means the national impact of the storm, the effect on the economy, the media, all of these things that are nationalized in new york. you're talking about problems in long island and cape cod, the storm surge and the tides, are they worried about erosion? >> yes, this storm is not any weaker. it's still the same strength still having the 60 to 80 miles per hour winds. that will drive the waves. high tide in the cape and eastern mass in the night tonight between 3:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m. we were never saying a historic storm surge. we were not expecting waves into houses or watching them away. but still we'll get a lot of over wash. there is a place called plum island out there that is slowly falling into the ocean. stuff like that we could get dramatic pictures out of. the storm surge and high tide

this morning we will get some highlights out of it. i still think that when we see the worst of this storm, it will be the power outages and how long it takes to get the power back on for the people in eastern new england when the windchill is in the single digits and people are stuck in their homes thursday and friday. they may not be able to leave their homes. they had to get dug out first, and then the power crew vs. to get in there. that will be the battle. if we have life threatening weather, that's thousand will happen. >> thank you for being here. it will be a long time. >> sorry for sneaking up on you. >> it was kind of exciting. a man in black sneaking out of the dark. we're gooing to connecticut now to talk to paul vance. can you give us a update on the security situation. roads, power outages, and things like that in connecticut? >> we're still looking at the

forecast as predicted. we're getting heavy snow fall, the d d.o.t. doing what they can. we're anticipating that we're going to continue receiving heavy snowfall in our state. >> i know there was a travel ban instituted and announced by the governor relatively early in the day telling people to be off the roads by nine. there was no end date announced for that. lounge do you anticipate the travel ban being in effect. >> i think it was perfect to institute that. we needed to make sure the roads were clear to be able to have our highway crews keep the roads open and keep up with the storm. most of our customers are heeding that warning, and are making it accessible for d.o.t. to do their work. we don't know how long it will take for this storm to get

through. certainly it has been forecasted and predicted. but we're in a wait and see mode to' exactly what occurs with this storm. >> thank you. ing -- mr. mccarten is joining us now. let me ask about the revised forecast totals that we vurs heard about. new york is never imposed a system-wide shut down of the subway system because of a snowstorm, was that a mistake if this is not the larger event predicted earlier in the day? >> no this is a serious storm. this is a business arguelizzard. new york city has only seen so many of these in the past century. public safety is the number one goal. the mayor and this office of

emergency management has to protect the citizens. stay off of the roads so we can get peek back to work and get the system back up and running. we saw it during sandy, protection of the system is number one. it's a very complex transit system, and the transit authority can make those decisions. >> when do you think they will be back up and running if it is a 10 to 12 inch snow event? >> no i do not. we're looking at a crystal ball here. we have not seen the worst of this storm. we're being told by our national weather service that the intensity of the storm will increase. but, you know we can clean up here pretty quick. our sanitation department with the mta officials can clean

those tracks and get people back and running. once the snow stops, that's why it is important for people to stay off of the roads right now. if they stay off of the roads we can prepare for the worst. if it's the best tomorrow when we wake up we're doing much better than we were last night. >> overprepare instead of underprepare. >> yes, thank you for being with us tonight, i know it will be a long night, sir, thank you. >> appreciate it. >> we have more ahead as we track this storm up and down the east coast. live reports from several locations. al roker will join us later.

mr. mayor, i just wanted clarity on the 11:00 rule. >> >> a food deliver ri bicycle is not an emergency vehicle, no.

i just ran in from outside. i can't feel my hands. if i do something unusual with them i can't be held

accountable. all right, so -- it is cold out there. new york city is the largest city in the country. los angeles is the second largest city in the country. chicago is the third. in the history of our country there has only been one woman who was mayor of one of those if is. in 1979 that's when she was elected, her name was jane will your honor -- jane burn of chicago. she was elected largely because of a snowstorm. the unfortunate mayor of chicago in 1978 and and there was a huge storm in 1979 and the mayor could not get it done for that storm. he tried to put a brave face on

and say everything was fine, but it wasn't. chicago threw him out. in the democratic primary for mayor which is all that mattered in chicago at the time. jane burn beat the incumbent mayor. that's the one time that one of the three largest cities in america elected a woman to be mayor. snowstorms can have a big political impact. the state of emergency continues in boston. people are not permitted to drive their cars and almost everything is closed. the governor says it is worse than the hurricane of '38. >> it was obviously a mess, but here with have a hurricane plus a blizzard. >> the year before jane burn was the mayor of chicago, it was the

blizzard of 1978 in massachusetts. that was a defining moment for governor michael ducaucus. they basically shut down the state for three days. but the governor was addiment. before the blizzard, it was new york, and the giant snowstorm of 1969. mayor john lindsey, 15 inches of snow fell on new york city that year but the city was not prepared at all even though that is not a overwhelming amount. they were not ready. part of it was a bad weather forecast. the weather forecast that year predicted that storm would start as snow and turn to rain. it didn't it stayed all snow and the city could not really handle it. they plowed some neighborhoods,

not all neighborhoods, and mayor john lindsey did not live it down. >> the neighbors are not plowed are angry. he walked the streets of queens and he was heckled. they were throwing snowballs, get out of our neighborhoods, and he is now in four feet of snow. >> he didn't cause the snowstorm, but he sent a message they didn't matter as much. >> we move as fast as we can. it's very heavy and wet and it needs bull doesdozersbulldozers. the ordinary commitment is only partially effected. >> after viewing queens there was a lot of talk about more crews, but it will take more than conversation to convince the residents here at 241st

street that something is being done. >> it tells you something about the management of storms like this. the blizzard of '78 gets called still the blizzard of '78. the one before that that crippled combines that is not called the blizzard of 1969 that is called the lindsey snowstorm, like it's his fault, he did it. in 1982 it was denver that was overwhelmed by a storm that hit on christmas eve. the mayor was in office 14 years and when he could not handle it they threw him out. in 1987 it was dc. the mayor was in l.a. staying at the beverly hills hilton and getting ready to go to the super

bowl while back home his city was thumped by a snowstorm. in 2010 a christmas day storm in new york city. roads were unplowed for days. hundreds of people were stuck in a dark cold subway. there was over 1,000 911 calls. and for that storm, the mayor was in bermuda. here is the thing though mike bloomberg is not remembered in terms of his mayorial tenure being in bermuda during the storm. but michael ducascus was turfed out after the blizzard of '78 and he did well with that one. marion barry played no price for the super bowl snowstorm. even john lindsey, he was pelted

by snowballs and they named the snowstorm after his incompetence in 1969. later that year he was reelected. tonight, new york city and boston may get some of the largest snowfalls they have experienced as cities. the range of cities runs from philly to maine, hitting every major northeast city on it's way. what does it take to be good at governing through like this. joining us now is steve kornacki. i mostly wanted you here because i wanted you to see the michael ducaucus -- >> i loved the sweater. >> he is a von trapp. >> is there a gold standard for municipal governance and leadership for storms like this? >> i think there is two

components of it generally. the ones seen as doing it successfully. one is that things have to run smoothly. to a certain expect that is not in your control. part of the story in 1969 is that lindsey had really poor relations with a lot of city workers. there was a lot of speculation that sanitation workers said we're going to screw him with this one, we're going to miss streets, and take our time. you can't have neighborhoods not getting plowed. the other thing is communication. being very visible. giving the appearance of being in control. being on television, michael ducaucus. there was no cable tv.

they have their radio tuned in and they're hearing him and he is a calming presence through the whole storm. >> is the political communication skills -- they end up being not just helpful to your legacy but literally helpful to people. i think one of the things that happened in the last five years or so when there is a public emergency or event, we get a long list of thank yous where they thank all of the agencies and i'm sure it matters but it doesn't much matter to individual people for wondering how to cope for their family. >> you take that lindsey example, and if you're thanking all of these heads, you're giving them public acknowledgment. we talk about legacy because marion barry passed away a few months ago. i remember reading in the o bit

chew ware, the snowstorm made it in there. these politicians think about their legacies a lot. >> when you look at these things overtime, and we're looking at the lens of the politicians, do we get better at these things overtime? do they learn from previous mistakes? >> they learn from the media standpoint if is almost a pageant, a well choreographed pageant. like chris christie a years ago, he started putting the fleece on. they want to look like they're about to brave the elements. in terms of handling how you run the city during the storm, a lot of times i wonder is this a machine that runs itself and the mayor and governor are out there, whoever, and they're a public face but how essential are they actually? >> is there a coordinating role

to be had or a figure head? >> certainly in terms of communicating with the public it is. >> steve, if you have any trouble getting home tonight, i have a couch and a liquor cabinet in my office. >> we have lots more ahead on this big nor'easter tonight. we have a update from the great al roker coming up, stay with us. chicago politicians have weathered many storms but not like this one. snowplows, many obsolete were too slow. the snow clogged freeways run ways and railways. >> push in push in don't be bashful. the record snows that covered chicago uncovered the city's inability to cope with it and more. the mayor revealed the city paid one of the former colleagues to

draw up a emergency snow plan. but it wasn't a plan just a outline of what the plan should include. >> take it up with the commissioner. >> we're asking you, sir. >> then the "wallstreet journal "saying he had friends in the crime syndicate and city hall.

it is 9:30 now on the east

coast. if you have been following maps like that all day, you can thank our national weather service. they take all of that data they run different models to project how the storm is going to behave over time. our national weather service is something to be proud of. we do world class weather forecasting in this country. sometimes europe does it better. >> hurricane sand but a week before the storm made land fall. the american model was predicting it would continue heading into the atlantic. it was the europeans that first foresaw the devastating left hook. >> we do have very good forecasting in this country, but hurricane sandy was one important example of the european forecast just being better than the american forecasts. part of that is just because of brute computing strength.

earlier this month with funding that was appropriated because of super storm sandy, our national weather service jupupgraded their computers. because that just happened tonight's storm on the east coast is going to be an important test case for how well our newly upgraded system performs in absolute terms and in comparison with the other models that are out there. the other models that have sometimes, do a better job. basically all of the major forecasting models in the past couple days said the same basic bottom line thing. where the models have differed is in how much snow certain parts of the east coast would get. for example, look at this. on saturday this was the european model projection on the left-hand side there of where this storm would be by tomorrow.

it is a saturday projection of where the storm would be by tuesday. the european model on the left and one of the american models the north american meso scale model on the right. and if you look at this important difference see where the bulls eye is? the center of the storm? it's in a geographically different spot. the american has the bullseye on the ocean. so those were the competing projections, european on the left european on right on saturday. since then the american model shifted the bullseye closer to where the european model put it. same with the global forecast system model, but it still shows the storm going further out to

sea and with less snowfall an land overall. earlier today, they called the global forecast system model a outliar. they said the european model looked closer to reality so they upped their expected snowfall totals for new york. again, bottom line bottom line forecast, no matter who you ask, is tons of snow on a big swath of the east coast. how much and for how long that depends on how good we are as a country crunching the huge amount of data coming up with these mapped forecasts, making sure they're correct. al will be forecasting throughout the night on nbc.com tonight. what is the latest you're seeing in the course of the storm and it's magnitude.

>> again, we're watching it we have 29 million people under a blizzard warning right now. and we're watching this system make it's way along the coast. right now in manhattan, a little less snow but that could pick up again tonight. but we really are watching from nantucket nantucket, boston, we see thetivity getting itself together. a business argue, sustained winds, frequent gusts. blowing snow dropping visibilities to less than a quarter mile. we could be talking in boston upwards of 24 inches of snow especially as you get out toward nantucket it could be closer to three feet. power outages are going to be a problem. on long island they're getting hammered right now. vizsibilityies at near zero.

it is a big deal. >> have there been important differences over the past couple days and into today in terms of the different models and types of forecasting. we heard a lot about the contrast between the u.s. and european models in the past is that important for this storm? >> here is the interesting thing. as you mentioned, the national weather service has upgraded they changed some of their software and put some money into super computers, and what was interesting is the american model picked up on the intensity of this system before the european model did. so we're seeing more parody coming up and there are a number of there is a suite of numbers, a lot of times for the winter that doesn't handle it

quite so well and we discount that model. we're looking at a whole suite of models. and you wash you look and you try to finesse that suite of models. i do think that there wasn't has significant of a difference between the main grouping this time. >> one question that may just be my fault and not the fault of how this has been described, but it felt to me that for a storm of this magnitude, i heard about it later than i might have expected. past big winter storms affecting a portion of the u.s. did this one not get much media attention, or was it not forecast until later than you might expect. >> that is part of it. for example, friday night we were not thinking this would be that big of a deal.

it's coming out as a clipper. make it's way up be a fairly quick mover. but as we got into friday night and especially saturday night, overnight saturday night into sunday morning we realized this is going to be a problem. this is going to be bigger than we thought. >> al roker, thank you for being with us tonight, i really appreciate it. i should tell you you can follow him as he broadcasts throughout the night tonight on nbc.com. if you want him to answer your questions you can tweet them to him and he will also them. he will be there all night, i swear. lots still to come storm wise and otherwise. stay with us.

one thing to keep in mind for this big storm, the u.s. market ranked by gdp. of the top ten, four of the ten are in direct path of tonight's snowstorm. if you shut those four metro

areas down for a couple days or longer, the country will feel that as an economic hit. we're hitting our stride now in terms of recovery from the great recession as a country. 2014 overall was great for the resurgence in jobs consumer confidence, and economic growth. but it was not great uniformly. we had a contraction in the economy in the first three months of 2014. and that was because of the polar vortex. the group macro economic advisors estimates that the brutal cold of last year's polar vortex reduced the national gdp by a point and a half. in turms of what is happening tonight, this is one storm. measuring the economic impact of one storm is not an exact science or easy one. property damage work claims

lost work hours, cities hemorrhaging money. other stating helping. it is a complicated thing to figure out the economic ins and outs here. there is little doubt that it is shutting down the country for a day or two. especially things like wall street and it will have a broad impact. we don't know what that impact is yet and we won't know until we're through this storm. we're getting close to what we expect might be the height of this storm. joining us in rahema ellis. i know you're driving right now, what can you safely tell us while keeping your eyes on the road? >> i can tell you that traffic is a lot lighter. every hour that we're out here the traffic diminishes considerably. people are wise enough to get off of the streets. we're seeing more of the

snowplows and the sands and salt machines that are out trying to clean these, on massachusetts state highways we have 7300 miles of state road and something like 4,000 state plows that will be out on these roads trying to take care of them. it is a daunting task that lies ahead. we were stopped a few moments ago, and the snow was not coming vertical, but it was coming horizontal at all. the winds have picked up and they say it is something we should look otut for as the wind and snow gets heavier and heavier. we're going slower than some other drivesrs that are more courageous than i. >> thank you very much. be safe out there. again, we have state's of emergency in seven states.

we have driving bandss in connecticut. more in massachusetts and rhode island going to take effect tonight. we have had requests from people to stay off of the roads in new hampshire and new jersey. it is a big area of the country being affected by this. tonight and into the dawn hours we're told the weather will get heavier. if you're not out now, don't go out no. in the morning nation a sensible decision about how much you need to be on the road. in very good local good news i can now feel my hands.

in nonsnowstorm news today, former governor bob mcdonald is not going to prison at least not yet.

after his conviction on a dozen felony charges, he had been told to report to federal prison to start his two-year sentence as of february to start his two-year sentence as of february 9. he was due to start his first day in prison two weeks from today. but today a federal appeals court reversed that decision and told governor mcdonnell that he can remain free while his appeal goes forward. oral arguments on his appeal will start in mid may. he will be free at least until then.

busy night around here. we're keeping an eye on this historic storm tonight. but there is other news to get to tonight including unexpected and dramatic news out of iowa a story that is still developing that you should know about. all the political attention this weekend was focused on iowa. iowa conservatives held what was basically a big showcase for most of the republican candidates for 2016. whatever you think of the field this year you should know that republican insiders are very very excited about this crop of candidates who all gave speeches this weekend in iowa. in the wake of that big event, something has happened involving the iowa of iowa. terry bran stead was just

reelected to his sixth term. he firsted in the '80s and '90s. earlier today he was speaking at a ribbon cutting event in johnston iowa. the governor started to stumble over his words during his speech. he reportedly then got a little wobbly and began to lose his balance. the governor was then laid on the ground. they called for an ambulance. the governor was taken out on a stretcher and brought by ambulance to a local hospital in des moines which is where he remains tonight. the governor's office says that he is alert and conscious tonight, but that he will be kept in the hospital overnight for observation. early today, governor bran stead appeared at a press conference where he and his lieutenant governor both said they had not been feeling well recently. it was during an appearance after that when the governor started to stumble and had to get into an ambulance. we wish the best for the governor and his family as he

has this overnight hospital stay in des moines. we'll keep you posted ago we learn -- as we learn more.

watch this tape. we just got this in. this is from wnbc which is the local station in new york. this is a reporter named stacy bell here. and she's doing a live report. this is not at all staged. watch how cool and calm she is as this happens during her live report. she's doing a live stand up on the side of the road in long island tonight and watch what happens. >> as the snow continues to fall overnight only time will tell. reporting live from nassau county, as the snow continues to fall overnight --

>> stacy bell look at that. the nbc station in new york city tonight. completely calm cool and collected as that happens during her stand up from long island just incredible. we are now approaching 10:00. mayors and governors from d.c. to massachusetts have urged their citizens to basically shut it down get home and stay home and maybe think about staying home tomorrow too. seven governors have declared a state of emergency. in some cases authorities are urging people not to travel unless they absolutely must. there are travel bans in place already or due to go into effect shortly in new york city. 13 other counties in massachusetts and rhode island and connecticut. it's not just a request, it is a necessity. only emergency responders are being allowed out on the roads. major cities saw a huge rush as people jammed onto subways and commuter trains. new york city is going to finish

closing its entire subway system an hour from now. this is the first time they've ever closed an entire subway system because of a snowstorm. amtrak the most heavily traveled corridor service will be suspended throughout new england tomorrow. airlines canceled 2800 flights today. they've canceled 3900 and counting flights tomorrow. those are flights that are being canceled and airplane canceled canceled and airports shut. you are seeing areas affected well beyond the storm because they can't make the connections. with mass transit going dark with flights canceled all over the country, right now, if you are within the sound of my voice and you are not already where you intend to be and where you intend to be is somewhere on the east coast tonight, we are now approaching the moment when you might find it very difficult to get anywhere you are not

already. it's going to be a long night. the forecast has been changing over the course of the night. we are told to expect very heavy snowfall in all the affected areas between now and dawn. the overnight hours are going to be crucial in terms of the overnight magnitude of this storm. it's historic proportions, particularly in new england. but that does it for us at least for now. stay with msnbc for live coverage of the storm. good evening ari. >> reporter: it's really cold. >> take it easy. stay safe. it is being called the calm before the storm. seven states have declared an emergency. monster blizzard set to smash the east coast. >> 30 million people in i