's open for everyone. there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. from the scandal to the showdown. good morning to everyone out there. thanks for getting up with us on this chilly first day in february. super sunday. winter's looking more like winter with every passing minute. the latest details on this week's big storm in a moment. another big storm, i know. as i just hinted if you could possibly have forgotten, today is super bowl sunday. a big day every year. after the fortnight we had, the entire season the nfl just had,

this super bowl is viewed with more importance than most. we have lots to get to this morning. a big show of sports. a big show of politics a big show of news. all of it ahead and reaction from japan at the death of another hostage at the hands of isis. we begin with another winter tomorrow already causing havoc as it makes its way from the midwest to the east coast. as we come on the air from new york, a travel ban on large vehicles is on effect on the ohio turnpike. large trucks and trailers are banned from that road. looking at a live shot in click go. that's where a blizzard warning is right now in effect. the storm has dumped several inches of snow in iowa. new england still digging out from last week's multiple feet of snow. new england could be in the path of another winter storm right now. msnbc meteorologist dominica davis is here with more. >> we are looking at 23 states

under winter warning advisories. warnings or advisories. that extends all the way from the great lakes through the northeast and into new england this will be a very active area as we go over the next 2,4, 48 hours. much of the action is sitting out in the midwest. chicago, we have that blizzard warning. blizzard conditions expected by this afternoon. that will last through this evening. des moines coming in on heavy snow. you can see that rain/snow line cutting over indianapolis. this is with that storm. the snow is more trending to the north. we have some sleet and freezing rain that will be an issue with this system too, as it continues to progress off to the east. here's a look at future cast as we roll this through, by sunday evening, we're looking at this snow starting to push into the new york area. you can see the rain/snow line is coming in that pittsburgh area and through the hudson

valley by tonight. still a tough call in new york whether we will see all snow or if it will be a more snow/rain event. up through new england we are looking at another all snow event that will last into monday. some pretty decent snowfall coming in. boston could see another foot. back through detroit and chicago will also see snowfall up to a foot. >> so last year was the year they had the super bowl in new york or new jersey imagine if that was the case tonight? >> i know. turning now to super sunday. it's finally here. the parties, the drinking the halftime show the clever ads, the cringe worthy ads, there is something for everyone on super sunday. of course there's the big game itself. the new england patriots the seahawks, one team already a dynasty. the other seeking to become the next dynasty. as super bowl match-ups go this is an unusually great one. you have tom brady, russell wilson richard sherman, gronk, belichick, pete carroll.

so much to talk about. so much to look forward to in the game tonight. but for the past two weeks most of the conversation has been about underinflated footballs. accusations that the patriots cheated. that any victory they might score on the field tonight may ultimately be tainted. here's what we'll do. right now we're going to start the show by trying to get the deflategate thing out of the way. if we do that now, all of us can enjoy the rest of super sunday enjoy the big game tonight, none of us will have to think about psi levels sophomoric puns involving the word balls. first, i am from massachusetts. i am a patriots fan. i'm not necessarily unbiased here. that said though let's take a step back here and let's look at what we have heard about deflategate the past two weeks verses what we know about it. number one, all of the initial reporting said that the trigger was an interception of a tom brady pass in the afc

championship game by jackson, who then ran to the sideline with the ball and told his team that it felt soft. that's what we heard when this all began. but then jackson stepped forward and said actually he didn't notice anything funny about the ball at all. he didn't say anything to anyone on the sideline about it. really? how different were the footballs the patriots were using? tom brady said they felt right to him. in the second half they felt no different. in the second half the patriots out-scored the colts 28-0. the referee whose job it is to pick up and reset the ball after every play did not notice anything unusual the entire first half nor did the linebacker from the colts. number two, the report that turned this into a major national story came from espn's chris mortensen who cited unnamed league sources who told him 11 of the 12 patriots balls tested at halftime were

underinflated by two pounds her square inch each. but then another report. this time from mike florio of pro football insider and nbc sports. his report said that actually 10 of the 12 patriots footballs were only inflated by one pound per inch. if they were only deflated by that much it starts to raise the question of whether the weather and game conditions might have played a role. >> our preparation process for the footballs is what we do. i can't speak for anybody else. it's what we do and that process we have found raises the psi approximately 1 pound. >> after bill belichick offered that explanation, you remember this bill nye the science guy made headlines by saying belichick was pedalling junk science. but then a graduate engineering

study conducted an elaborate experiment to test belichick's theory. and his conclusion was that it made sense. then a bunch of physics experts agreed with that student. or an article on slate caused a frenzy last week when it claims that the patriots fumbled the football at an impossibly low rate that could only be explained by cheating by deflating the ball to make it easier for the running back to grip so he doesn't fumble it. but then one statistics expert reviewed that slate article and utterly debunked it. then there's this. when the story first broke it was widely reported that prior to the patriots/colts game that the balls were properly checked by officials before the game. now comes this. the nfl finally in just the last few days confirming that "when officials inspect footballs to see if they're properly inflated they simply approve

them or disapprove them." in other words, there were no recordings taken before the colts game about what the ball levels were. the only recordings were taken at halftime and after the game. let me suggest this we will never know for sure what happened here. it seems possible this wasn't nearly as sinister as many of the many headlines we have read these past few weeks claim. it seems possible that maybe the patriots submitted footballs to the refs that were slightly under inflated. and that the refs gave them the feel test and approved it for play. if that happened, i would call it gamesmanship. that's what i think happened. given how much ambiguity is here, how much the actual facts have come out have contradicted or cast doubt on some of the reporting we've seen the last two weeks, can we put deflategate out of our minds? can we enjoy the game salute

the winner and not attach any asterisks? ed shultz is the host of "the ed show" as well as a former college quarterback with minnesota state university. also with us is msnbc contributor, ed rendell, the former governor of pennsylvania a well-known eagles fan and a panelists on "postgame live" which airs every eagles regular and postseason game. ed, let me start with you. i laid out my case. i'm a patriots fan, i'll admit. i think this is a big bag of nothing what do you think? >> well i think that the basic operation of the football team is probably set in stone. tom brady has been with the patriots for a long time. it's probably well known within the organization how he likes the football. tom brady has been there for 15 years.

he's made the organization a lot of money. if he wants the balls s des deflated that's what's going to happen. it seems rare that all of a sudden there would be some kind of atmospheric pressure type example or excuse given about footballs when we've never heard p before it before. there's been outdoor football games for years in the nfl. i find that comical. brady calls the shots. he's the linchpin of the organization. there's a lot of jealouslyy in the nfl. every coach in the league would love to have half the success of belichick, or have a player like tom brady. we have two premiere people, there's a lot of envy going around and they'll try to get the patriots any possible way they can. that's not to say that there wasn't deflated footballs.

there were. and i think that it's just another day at the office for the patriots. they always deflated that's the way tom likes it. it's no big deal. now all of a sudden this has blown up. the irony in this is this pete carroll is one of the biggest cheaters at usc, he has got to be sitting there saying you know let them worry about deflategate, i have few things in my closet too. but we'll be ready for the game. >> pete carroll and the 2004 usc team had to vacate their win because of massive violations. governor rendell, what ed schultz is saying there i agree with it. aaron rodgers a few months back said he likes the balls overinflated. what he likes to do they like to have extra air in them and they hope the refs don't notice. he's happy if he gets out there

and he says they don't notice. my guess is that's what happened with the patriots. to me that's gamesmanship if that's what it is. >> i disagree steve. i think it's cheating. the nfl sets a level to what the ball should be inflated. i think coach belichick's explanation that the weather did it. the weather mysteriously didn't do it to the colts footballs. >> can i just -- let me respond to that. this is where -- if we now know contrary to the rlearly reporting that the referee did not measure the balls, and could not feel the difference between the colts balls and the patriots balls, isn't it reasonable that the colts submitted balls a pound heavier than the patriots thus the disparity? >> you can make up facts all you want. let me say first of all that i hope today's game is a great

game. they're both terrific football teams, neither of them needs to cheat. as a former prosecutor you look at priors. the patriots have a prior conviction for serious cheating. there's no question about that. secondly, your factual account, it was very good but it left out the guy going into the bathroom with the balls. >> so how -- so for -- >> let me finish. >> for 90 seconds. couldn't he have went to the bathroom? >> with the balls? >> so if your only job -- if you're a young guy -- >> not very likely. >> put yourself in that guy's shoes. >> steve, you're a fan, you're not looking at this objectively. >> no. no. governor, this is simple. if your job, your only job is to be the guardian of official game footballs from nfl game for two hours between when the game checks them and you have this bag of balls and you have to go

to the bathroom if it's me i'm taking the balls into the bathroom with me it will take me 90 seconds to go to the bathroom, forgive or take. >> you will take 12 footballs into the bathroom? ludicrous. >> in a bag. >> there's an answer to this. the answer is that the patriots should submit all of their employees to a polygraph test. it's important enough because the integrity of the game is at stake here. we've got a team that clearly was found to have cheated and penalized severely before. what's wrong with asking everyone, that employee who went into the bathroom everyone else to take a polygraph test. >> i just keep -- >> what's wrong with that? >> keep in mind on the spygate thing that other teams were doing that for years as well. >> but that's no excuse. >> i understand. >> that's no excuse. >> but also keep in mind the patriots have done better since spygate than before. ed, part of the discussion and

the debate i'm having with governor rendell is the issue of cheating and gamesmanship. there's holding on every play in football. that means on every play there are players willingly violating the rules to get a competitive advantage. the receiver will trap the ball he tries to fool the ref. we call that gamesmanship. i put this in that same category. >> well i think the patriots are probably have been doing so long, they think it's standard operating procedure and never thought nothing of it. the quarterback wants the football a certain way. quarterbacks have more idiosyncrasies than any other player on the team. they'll only warm up with certain players. they'll warm up a certain way. they'll -- dan marino had his own locker room with the dolphins and he only allowed a certain number of players in there. if he didn't like them, they weren't going to be in there. quarterbacks are the guys that

run the show once they're proven and a winning commodity. what they want goes. everybody in the organization knows that. they don't challenge that. i believe brady. i believe that brady at that press conference when he says i don't know i didn't talk to the ball boy, i didn't worry about the balls, because he knows they'll be right. he knows that the organization or whoever has handled the balls, this is how tom likes it this is what we'll do. >> but -- but the weakness there is -- >> i think there's a difference between if the patriots are submitting these balls ahead of time to the ref, then the onus is on the ref. if the ref feels something wrong, if the ref weighs them properly, the ref can change it. if the patriots mess with it after that i think it's entirely different than if the patriots submit them under inflated ahead of time. the report that comes out suggests that is possible. i want quick predictions on the

game tonight. ed schultz, who will win? >> well i think seattle probably has an advantage because of the mobility of wilson. i think the patriots are going to have a hard time containing him if they do. then they have a better chance of winning the game. third down conversions will be big against seattle because of the elusiveness of their quarterback. i think there will be a special official checking the inflated balls before the game. >> governor rendell, who will win? >> first i think the patriots will win. let me say this when ed says to get the balls right, that's wrong. it's wrong, maybe they're getting them right from their standpoint but it violates the rules. it's like a baseball pitcher putting an illegal substance on the ball it may help him grip the ball but it's a violation of the rules. >> but in their world they don't look at it that way. >> in the context of the game --

>> officer -- people break the rules by -- officer i was driving with only 2 1/2 drinks. >> it's the law. >> all the eagles linemen who hold on every play are cheaters. we established that. >> it's law. >> ed schultz, you'll see him every day at 5:00 p.m. governor ed rendell, there's always next year for the eagles. coming up, jeb bush opens up about his marijuana use in school as the topic is shaping up to be the new gay marriage of pot politics. we'll talk about that and more next. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts mean your peace of mind. now you can get the works, a multi-point inspection with a synthetic blend oil change tire rotation,

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all right. with so much going on time to get caught up on other headlines

making news. here is our panel. joy reid host of "the reid report." wesley lowery with the "washington post." liz mair and mike pesca, host of the podcast the gist on slate. welcome. we will move away from the super bowl for a second. i have a feeling we'll come back at some point. the biggest news in politics the des moines register released a new poll for the iowa caucuses. and it shows scott walker scott walker, the wisconsin governor getting a lot of attention he's surge ing surging. before mitt romney dropped out, he was leading with 21% of the vote. you take mitt romney out of it, scott walker has 16%, huckabee at 10 jeb bush at 9%. the significance of this is for scott walker who a lot of people

don't know. this gives him credibility. this allows donors to say this guy is for real. i know it's a year out, but this is a big moment in the invisible primary. >> you know there are too many people in the primary when 15 is the big lead. he's 5 points behind herman cane. for people who do this for a living you know this better than i do i think scott walker has a huge upside for a lot of reasons. >> full disclosure, my firm consulted for scott walker he's a former client but this is an important moment. if his team is able to capitalize on this it's something that could prove to be valuable to them even though we are so far out. i also would say with a note of caution, we are very far out. when you look back on the 2012 cycle, even given the fact that in many respects mitt romney looked like the only really serious candidate the way through, you saw tremendous ups and downs. we will with this as well.

>> not only are we far out from the caucuses but does iowa matter so much? i would also say two things the people leading in the straw polls or these twitter polls, state fair polls, you can pave the roads from council bluffs to des moines with the bodies of those. what are his issues on international policies? what is his real nuance position on ukraine. because he's so unknown -- >> some of those may be waiting on hillary clinton's answers. >> yeah. >> let's see what else. we have a couple other headlines. this from the "new york times"." at this party you better keep it down. you heard of sheriff joe arpio, this is in his backyard he arranged a super bowl party, but because he makes inmates sleep on pink sheets and wear pink

underwear, the popcorn will be colored pink. this is the first time they will get to watch -- there's three channels that sheriff joe lets the inmates watch. the weather channel, c span and the food network. he's making an exception tonight to watch the super bowl. >> what is wrong with him? i think mental health counseling is something that is very much needed for him. >> don't you think pink popcorn is good? >> i don't quite get the gender politics of the pink popcorn if i was an inmate and tortured by the weather channel, this is the highlighted of the year. >> and c span -- >> i like c-span. >> i'm one of 11 people. >> are they turning off book tv? what if robert carow is doing an interesting talk? >> tonight, three hours on bess truman.

we have politico saying is pot the new gay marriage for the gop? most republicans don't want to talk about pot, they want to punt it to states. an inishin -- you talk about decriminalization, legalization maybe an opportunity here. rand pal is picking up on it. maybe other republicans will? >> when youuyou look at where rand paul talks about this he does not talk where a lot of younger voters are, but you have discussion about sentencing reform. that's a common strain. that's something interesting and intriguing to voters about rand paul. he is showing some ability to capitalize on that. he's a big name in the party. that's important. in terms of people coming out and calling for full-on legalization.

i don't see a lot of democrats doing that. >> the other issue is that democrats are so terrified of looking like the party not tough on crime that you don't have a lot of democrats willing to be forward leaning and full decriminalization. i think there is a constituency for it. i would like to see some democrats get out ahead of it. >> there's still some time left. >> we have to squeeze a break in here. there's an interesting story in the news about tipping and coffee. i'll tell you about that. ♪ ♪ you're only young once. unless you have a subaru. (announcer) the subaru xv crosstrek. symmetrical all-wheel drive plus 34 mpg. love. it's what makes a subaru a subaru. 73% of americans try... ...to cook healthy meals. yet up to 90% fall short in

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we're back with the panel. we're talking about some of the headlines catching our eye this week. this is from the new york towns. $3 tip on a $4 cup of coffee. that would be a 75% tip or something if my math is right. so the idea is that a lot of coffee shops, places like that are getting into automated tipping. if you get to a coffee shop you might see a jar. but now you can punch in.

20, 25%, 30%. it's there for you to add on to your credit card. the idea is that maybe some of these workers are not making that much hourly it's a chance for you to give them more. apparently the research done shows people tip more when it's put to them that way. when i go to a coffee shop and i get a cup of coffee do you need to tip for this? i try to tip for everything, but i always wondered. >> the point you made is the right one. the hourly workers in these places are making so little money. there is a tendency if you pay cash, at dunkin' donuts i'll leave the rest of the change. but now the coffee itself is so expensive it is prohibitive to some people to tip. if you have an option of punching in 10%, you will give more. >> the automatic tipping option in cabs has increased the tipping. here's your 15% and thanks for the free math. i always tip in restaurants.

i always, always tip maids in hotel. those people keep almost all those salaries for tips. for cab driver's and baristas it's less. >> i do it in hotels too. dunkin' donuts, i'm never sure. the calgary sun reporting on a weird story, the zamboni driver busted for dui during a hockey game. this was in fargo, north dakota. he was arrested for dui after cleaning the ice drunk. >> how could you tell? >> amazing. >> absolutely one of the best stories of the week. >> glad no one was on the ice. glad we got the picture. >> this is brief, because i went long yelling at ed schultz and ed rendell. we are tracking that massive winter storm that has dumped several inches of snow on the midwest. it's heading east. later this morning we will go live to chicago which is under a blizzard warning. next we will go to

glendale, arizona. that's the site of super bowl xlix, and why this game could go down in the history books. you show up. you stay up. you listen. you laugh. you worry. you do whatever it takes to take care of your family. and when it's time to plan for your family's future we're here for you. we're legalzoom, and for over 10 years we've helped families just like yours with wills and living trusts. so when you're ready start with us. doing the right thing has never been easier. legalzoom. legal help is here.

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brighter denture everyday. [ cheers ] >> some of those super bowl parties that have attracted thousands of people to the phoenix area the week before the game. that's the one part of the super bowl we have not talked much about. the super bowl itself. the game. this game super bowl xlix could be historic. tom brady and bill belichick have a chance to tie the record for any super bowl/coach combination. this is their sixth overall that they've been in together. pete carroll could become the first coach to win two super bowls and two college national championships. though his 2004 usc team was forced to vacate the victory because of ncaa violations on

his watch. and pete carroll was the head coach of the patriots until 1999 when he was replaced by bill belichick. the big question is who will win this game? craig melvin is there to sort it us for us. at the table is mike pesca. craig, we're trying to get the whole deflate thing out of the way. considering it done now. in terms of what you've seen out there from these two teams, getting ready for this game tonight, what are you expecting? >> on tape steve, we should be in for a fantastic football game. you have the team with the best record from the afc, the pats. the team from the nfc, the seahawks, squaring off. this is fairly unusual for a super bowl. at last check, the patriots are favored. they're favored by one point. we're trying to do some research

to figure out when the last time the number was that low. so we should be in for a fantastic game. you know it's been played here in the dome weather won't be an issue. though they are going to pull the dome back. they'll have the retractable roof open. it's 64,000 folks who will squeeze in here. several hundred thousand have descended on phoenix the past few days for the big game. the excitement level is high. we spent a lot of time over the past few days talking to fans. as you indicated, you have so many story lines that are part of this game. you didn't mention richard sherman whose girlfriend is expected to give birth any day. marshawn marshawn lynch, whose relationship with the media garners headlines. and the balls that we will not talk about. >> thank you. >> we won't talk about that. >> let's take that as a segway. you mentioned marshawn lynch, he obviously stole the show at the

media day this week with his, you know i'm only here because i don't want to get fined. those antics. people who are seeing marshawn lynch for the first time this week talk about his importance to the seattle team. does that personality we saw in public, does that cause problems in the locker room? do the teammates like that? >> richard sherman talks so much, you need other people to be quiet. it's fine. i think he's loved. he's loved because he's so important to the team. symbolically, he's the embodiment of what they are. a team that will wear you down on offense, wear you down in the fourth quarter. they call it beast mode. they call it he's fresh, he's a 215 pound strong running back and their offensive line and defense pummelled the other team. you see in the fourth quarter he goes for these romps where he runs through the defense. legarrette blount from the patriots does something similar. he fits in the overall thing

that seattle is trying to do old school old style beat with you defense and control the ball. enough passing, but control the ball. that's why seattle is a throw back and contrast to the patriots which are cutting edge in so he many many ways. >> marshawn lynch, pete carroll, tom brady, bill belichick, more on message. interesting contrast stylistically. much more on the super bowl and throughout the show. my thanks right now to craig melvin and mike pesca. still ahead, i plan to ambush my colleagues and some of the biggest names from msnbc and nbc and try to get them on the record with their super bowl picks. jeb bush pot, and a political attack from rand paul. that's next. i'm louis, and i quit smoking with chantix. quitting smoking is a challenge and it's a lot easier to go into a fight when you've got somebody that's got your back. having chantix as a partner made it more successful. along with support, chantix (varenicline)

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bowl back to politics? bill belichick and jeb bush they both went to high school together. it's true. they were both at phillips andover academy in massachusetts in the late 1960s. that is one of the nuggets in a new boston globe profile of jeb bush's high school years that's got a lot of people talking. the biggest revelation seems to be jeb's admission of drug use while at school. now coming rand paul one of bush's rivals calling that real hypocrisy. saying that the people on our side, the republicans, admit their mistakes, but now still want to put people in jail for that. that was from rand paul. the first time i really got stoned was in jeb's room. that's what a friend said of his high school years with jeb bush. he had a portable stereo with removable speakers he put on steppenwolf for me. and the friend said he once

bought hasheesh from jeb but didn't consider him a dealer. he smoked marijuana and drank alcohol while at andover and it was common. jeb bush is winning praise for some about taking this on but will this become an issue later on? in the 1980s, douglas ginsburg watched his nomination go up in smoke because of college-aged marijuana use. candidates for president since then have been asked about use. bill clinton first told reporters that he never broke laws in the u.s., but thenwhen asked if while a student at oxford if he broke laws there, clinton answered -- >> when i was in england, i experimented with marijuana a time or two. i didn't like it didn't inhale. never tried it again. >> that is a response that became an immediate and enduring punch line.

bush liked to clip when i was young and irresponsible, i was young and irresponsible. youth drug use in the context of a presidential campaign is far from unprecedented. knew jeb admitted is this something that rand and other potentials will hammer him on? back with us is joy reid wesley lowery, and republican consultant liz mair. my quick take on this when it comes to winning the november election we're over the idea of somebody smoking marijuana in college. the interesting thing to me is how rand paul jumped on this. he didn't do it from the shame on you, you used pot angle. he did it from the angle shame on you, you would use it now you would punish people in your same position. >> you look at rand paul's strategy at large on these issues a lot of it is states

rights, not having hypocrisy across a lot of these different issues. it's been part of rand paul's playbook for the last year. it's interesting to see rand jump on jeb in this way. >> and at the same time what's interesting about it too, i agree with you. i think rand paul is the most interesting of the potential candidates for that reason and others. it points to the fact there are two kinds of drug use in this country. there's the drug use by the elite, which is written off as part of their youth. and this is something that's recoverable from. and then there's the drug use by people who are poor or black or brown, where it is essentially a straight ticket to prison. so i think that rand paul is pointing to a fundamental hypocrisy not just in politics but in the country. we are excusing behavior among the elite that we prosecute to the fullest extent of the law for others. >> the republican world, when they hear him say something like this how do they react? >> a lot of people i think,

whether they agree with jeb bush or rand paul on policy are happy to see rand paul needling jeb bush a bit. i think there are a couple factions there. there are people who don't like jeb bush think he's too establishment, i think in addition to that there are a lot of people who are going to be concerned as this continues that jeb bush has not run for office for quite awhile. he has a lot of people on his team who have not been dabbling in politics in the current environment we have which is very 24/7 very continuous. >> do you think they handled this one well? >> i think we'll have to see. it will continue playing out. i'm not convinced they have. i think rand paul has been effective whether you look at the way he's been needling jeb bush on common core or this and picking on things where he picks an issue that resonates, whether it's with the base or people that rand paul is trying to engage. minority voters, that's key for rand paul. he picks an issue, what ever he

talks about resonates well. it's a good way to go after bush and could expose real flaw's in bush's operation. >> is there still stigma -- you talked about douglas ginsburg of the supreme court, could have been a supreme court justice, used marijuana in college, couldn't be a supreme court justice. is there that stigma left in politics? >> no like infidelity americans have caught up with europe in the sense of not trying to use someone's personal behavior as a litmus test as to whether they would be a good political leader. i think the public is way ahead of the politics and even the president. people are slow to admit that a lot of americans tried marijuana. >> we were young, we get a pass. what happens to the politician who comes out and says yeah, i still do it. >> that will be an awesome race when that happens. that is kind of a signal of

where we still have yet to go. while we have gotten over some of these things no we won't disqualify clinton, bush or another bush because they smoked marijuana in college or said they stopped in college, we're wanting them to come out and say, yeah every once in a while at a party at the hamptons -- >> that was kind of like i was going to run for president but then i got high. >> colorado washington state, may get some experiments out there. still ahead, it hasn't been the best year for the nfl's roger goodell. could tonight's game do anything to change that other than end this season of misery for the league? next making friends wherever i go the faces of msn bshgsbc and nbc news weigh in on the game whether they want to or not. our controversial video is next. (son) oh no... can you fix it, dad? yeah, i can fix that.

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. all right. we are. we are deep in the bowels of 30 rock right now. you are getting a behind-the-scenes look of where we work every day. what we would do today is give you a tour of the building visit some of the people in the building. some faces you may know. some faces you may see on tv and we'll ask them about the big thing happening tonight. ♪ ♪ . >> patriots/seahawks who you cheering for? >> i'm married to a seattleite. so that ends the argument there. >> much of america may be rooting for the patriots demise. >> seattle, i think your coffee is terrible. >> i live in massachusetts, for me to say i'm cheering for the patriots feels like dog bites man. >> i like the seahawks i like several players. they are much more political. >> i'm not loyal to a team but

i'm loyal to a person who happens to be in the nfl. >> who's that? >> it's not a lucky shirt, it's lucky sweat pants, lucky socks, lucky hat. i have a lucky beer. >> i'll be there for the halftime show. i'll be there for the gatorade at the end. >> this is my former boss so steve -- >> don't hold that against me. >> patriots or seahawks? what do you think? >> we figured we would sit in front of this picture of brian williams. i think that's as close as we'll get. >> you wouldn't take this from a politician. >> security guy? seahawks? any prediction? >> my prediction is 12 1/2 pounds per square inch going into the bathroom. 11 1/2 pounds coming out. >> this will all come down to how flat the balls are. and if the balls are flat enough i think the patriots have a shot at winning this game. >> i think new england will win the game with fully inflated

footballs. >> interesting distinction between the two teams this weekend, one has been winning on the field, according to the rules. the other has been rampantly cheating. >> when the seahawks are brought to justice for that, it will be wonderful. >> all right. thanks to everybody who participated in that. our panel is back here. these cupcakes if you can see, they're special. you have patriots colors on the left seahawks colors on the right. so far nobody has indulged. now, i will go around quickly here liz mair your prediction? >> i'm only here so i don't get fined. i hope it's the seahawks. i'm from seattle. i hope we can pull it out. i have no idea. tom brady is a hell of a quarterback. >> joy? >> my team didn't make it i do predict that the patriots will bring nerf balls to the game. go seahawks. >> there's a novel joke. >> wesley? >> i grew up a jets fan, i would love to see the seahawks win, but i think the patriots will

pull it off, no matter the inflation or deflation issue, no matter how large or small the balls are. >> you think they'll catch the nerf ball? >> yes. >> remember the super fan sketch, the bears fans. the bears could never lose. i'll give mine pats 243-6. i'll give you the real one later. thanks for getting up this morning. another full hour of news sports politics straight ahead. stay with us. ainful due to menopausal changes it's not likely to go away on its own. so let's do something about it. premarin vaginal cream can help it provides estrogens to help rebuild vaginal tissue and make intercourse more comfortable. premarin vaginal cream treats vaginal changes due to menopause and moderate-to-severe painful intercourse caused by these changes. don't use it if you've had unusual bleeding breast or uterine cancer blood clots, liver problems, stroke or heart attack, are allergic to any of its

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enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national. i can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. and i don't have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. and i don't. and national lets me choose any car in the aisle. control. it's so, what's the word?... sexy. go national. go like a pro. the season of controversy. and thanks for staying with us this sunday morning. as i like to keep pointing out, it's super bowl sunday morning. the game starting at 6:30 tonight. if you're the nfl, you're probably glad the season is about to be over.

if you're a patriot fan, you've probably been on the receiving end of a lot of grief. and if you're a gambler by nature, you'll have a lot on the line. we'll delve into that ahead. and also look at what's next for former taliban hostage bo bergdahl. there's also reaction from the white house this morning to the apparent execution of a second japanese hostage by isis. lots to get to. first, as we have been talking about all day, the biggest day in american football one of the biggest days in american life a national cultural touchstone is finally here. for the league itself the super bowl marks the official end of what in many ways has been a year from hell. >> many people in america, if they went through the year you've had, probably would have resigned or been fired. you can envision any circumstances that would lead you to be resigning or being fired as commissioner?

>> no, i can't. i -- does that surprise you? listen, i -- it has been a tough year. it's been a tough year on me personally. it's been a year of what i would say is humility an learning. >> one year ago this month on february 15 2014 baltimore ravens running back ray rice had a violent altercation with his then fiancee, his now wife in an elevator. he was initially suspended for the first two games of the season, that's a comparatively lenient punishment. then in september a bombshell development. footage of rice striking his wife was posted on tmz. the video of him punching janay rice and carrying his unconscious body shocked the country. he was suspended indefinitely.

goodell denied he saw the tape when he signed off on the two-game suspension. rice's camp insisted otherwise. for a time t seemed like the controversy could cost god deal his his job. an investigation led by robert mueller found no evidence has goodell saw the tape and concluded they could have done more in the case. the nfl turned its focus to looking at domestic violence. >> no more boys will be boys. >> no more what's the big deal? >> no more it's just the way he is. >> no more he just has a temper. >> it has been the worst year in memory for the nfl, all of this without mentioning the adrian

peterson child abuse scandal. we look back on the past year and what the nfl can do to put this behind them. we have bob ryan former columnist with "the boston globe," author of ask the scribe." in phoenix, mike freeman for the bleacher report, and joy reid on set with me. mike freeman, let's start with you. we talked about this. we had you on the show in the fall when it seemed like an open question, whether goodell would survive as commissioner. we played that question he got earlier this week what is the status of roger goodell as a commissioner? has he weathered there or is there still doubt here? >> here is why roger goodell is safe, because of this. money. he's making a lot of a lot of cash for the owners. so the owners are sort of using

roger goodell. i think this is a point people don't get. roger goodell is a human flak jacket for the owners. he's a guy that takes all the grief about what the nfl has done, while the owners are over here being quiet. not the targets, making a lot of money. goodell is taking the flack for them. is he safe? he's safe because of that safe because he's a perfect foil for the owners. everybody goes after roger goodell and not the owners. yeah he's pretty safe right now. >> so, bob ryan in terms of damage -- there's damage to goodell and damage to the league itself. these headlines have been so terrible. what happened in the ray rice situation so terrible. yet despite weeks of this you look at the ratings sunday to sunday, the ratings for the playoffs what happens tonight, do you think for fans this has changed the way they think about football or the nfl or do they put it out of their heads, watch the game and play fantasy football? >> in this fantasy football

world we live in in this betting world we live in these are mere peripheral concerns. the hard-core football fan is not remotely interested in the morality play. he's interested in -- mostly he interested in the competition and the totality the love of the game itself and love all the peripheral aspects of it. the fantasy is a world unto itself. the other stuff is just irrelevant. safety? what? who cares. a few mothers -- i always said the mothers of america should shut football down tomorrow. maybe they should but until this happens, life will go on happily. i am amused by the idea that it takes a specific person to oversee this whole enterprise. it could be a thousand other

people because it's self-perpetuate self-perpetuating. >> that raises the question, we played the psa that the nfl has done, do you have a sense of anything meaningful changing in terms of how the league looks at this? how cases like this will be handled in the future? do you think this has produced within the league something valuable and positive? >> i will couch this as somebody who grew up bathed in the sport of football. i grew up in denver colorado where it was god, family and football, not necessarily in that order. what happened this year has exposed the nfl for what it is a group of owners who are fielding basically a squad of prized race horses. and they don't care what the race horses do at home. they're highly paid basically gladiators, who if they're beating up their wives, they don't care about that. the owners kay about the money these guys make.

there's a reason why there are bigger penalties for putting chemicals into your body which destroys the product that the owners are selling than doing something that would be criminal if they were just an ordinary citizen. i think the fact there is no morality within the confines of the nfl -- they don't care about that. they have to make the psa's as a marketing ploy but the idea that the nfl cares about the lives of these players outside of the field outside of the field when they're not making money for the owners that's been exposed as a big lie. i think it will be difficult to change that. as your other guests have said the actual end users of this product don't care. this is entertainment. >> the money that the league has made the money that the teams have made under goodell. in the year goodell took over, seven, eight years ago is staggering. his salary is $44 million. paul tagliabue was the bread setser of goodell.

tagliabue saying we have not talked much since i left. clearly there's a chill in their relationship. tag tagliabue said that the money was the end all, be all of what the job was all about. if what he says is accurate, how has that affectsterfected the players relationship with the league? >> the players have no relationship. it's the most antagonistic i've seen in my 20 25 years of covering sports and nfl. i have never seen hatred between the players union and the commissioner as deep as steep as this. even in some ways during the strike years which were really nasty and ugly. right now they don't have a relationship. you saw here this week richard sherman came out and basically punked goodell and said his relationship with robert kraft,

the owner of the patriots, champions are anything, that's why this investigation will lead to nothing, because he's so close with goodell is with kraft, the players dislike goodell. that's one of the keys. with as much money as the league is making bob ryan is right and joy reid are right about how some owners view the players, but that can't stay that way forever. they need the players. that relationship needs to be mended if thisey are going to continue make the money they are now. >> i said i didn't want to spend much time on deflategate. in terms of what mike was saying in terms of the relationship between kraft and goodell. a lot of patriots haters say this means he will be easy on the patriots. other suggestions say that in light of the bad pr the nfl received this year for the ray rice thing, for adrian peterson whatever else when it comes to

this matter goodell might see this as on a opan opportunity to come down hard. >> my opinion has been from the beginning that the patriots are under extra scrutiny for good reason, people are suspicious of them. it's incumbent upon him to launch a highly detailed investigation. and probably to err on the side of caution, punishing the patriots disproportionately harder than he would any other team f the patriots were at fault and it was not an act of nature that caused this. to go to richard sherman's statement, i think had any other team won -- afc team won the game, that it's possible that mr. goodell would have gone to and joined the celebration at the home of that owner as well. i think he read more into that

situation. >> sometimes saying things could be a motivating force for a team. joy reid the longer team future for football concussions. i noticed watching the game this year and the last few years, it's the sort of thing in years past there would be a big hit. everybody would get excited about it and say what a big play. now everybody, myself and everybody i watch with winces. there's been a change in our instincts and how we watch and think about it. i always think about the younger generation of kids. if i had a 12-year-old, i would want that kid playing football or would i think if something is going to happen we don't want that. the longer term view of football what do you think? >> my husband and i were reluctant to let our children play football. nfl players have the shortest careers, when you look at basketball versus baseball. these guys break their bodies

apart in terms of arthritis, head injuries, pain and suffering of a post nfl player. yes, they are highly compensated. at the end of the day, these guys are destroying themselves physically for our entertainment. and i think will you see a lot of parents, a lot of moms and dads wondering whether this is worth it. when you talk about the kids that are playing, the same lack of morality and the same lack of caring about them as human beings applies all the way down to pewee football. allowing kids to go head first into a line when they are playing as linemen, allowing kids to take the same physical risks, risk the same physical pain, the same head injuries that adults are, this is getting younger and younger. i think parents are rethinking it. fans, not rethinking it. that's the moral dilemma that i think we all have as people who love the game. >> all the concerns raised, but more money than ever ratings better than ever. any way, want to thank bob ryan.

he will stick around. we'll see you later in the show. mike freeman, thank you. enjoy the game. and joy reid thank you. still ahead, the very important question of what kind of hoodie bill belichick will be wearing today. first, military seems ready to decide what to do about bo bergdahl. that's next. an impact on something as big as your retirement? i don't think so. well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. ♪ ♪ 73% of americans try... ...to cook healthy meals. yet up to 90% fall short in getting key nutrients from food alone. let's do more... ...add one a day 50+. complete with key nutrients

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the japanese prime minister said this morning that he feels indignation over the apparent execution of a second japanese man by isis. he's vowing that japan will not give in to terrorism. an online video released yesterday appears to show the beheading of kenji goto. the white house is confirming

that goto is dead. president obama expressing his own condemnation in a statement this morning as well as solidarity with the people of japan adding that the u.s. will continue to take decisive action against the terror group. at times like this we like to turn to colonel jack jacobs. colonel, this was an unusual situation. there was a three-way thing involved here. isis had this japanese photographer and wanted from jordan the release of an extremist. it was a downed jordanian pilot that isis had. the deal supposedly was everybody gets their people out. it dissolved. do we know how that happened? >> jordan wanted proof of life for the pilot. and it was not forthcoming. and they weren't going to do further negotiations and figure out what else they were going to get if there was going to be money involved. all the details of any exchange

until there was a proof of life. i sis isis didn't provide it so it broke down. >> some european countries pay these ransoms and have gotten people out. in the united states we have the strict policy of don't pay the ransom. is there a realistic way to get these people out? we keep seeing these innocent people trapped over. there we say is there any way to get them out. is there? >> no there's no real way you can guarantee to get people out who get captured by isis, no matter what you do. indeed there's an argument that says if you pay ransoms, if you exchange prisoners, that you are almost going to guarantee that you will lose more people because they will getturecaptured. the people we exchanged for bo bergdahl, one of them has contacted al qaeda. there are others we released from guantanamo that we killed on the battlefield or killed.

there's no way you will get your people back. in any case the expectation of isis is not necessarily make any exchanges any way. they're a terror organization and their objective is to control areas they go into not necessarily make points or reach a consensus with countries who -- of whom from which they have prisoners. either paying ransom or anything else. you mentioned bo bergdahl that was in the news sort of early last year. now back in the news because we have reports that a decision is imminent now to charge him with desertion. that's not official, but that's what the reporting suggests that we are heading in that direction. do you think that's appropriate in his case? that he be charged with desertion? >> yes. i think -- look there's an investigation that's convened by the court-martial convening authority. a general officer investigates it. makes a recommendation to the

court-martial convening authority. based on the investigation, whether or not somebody ought to be charged. after that there's the military grand jury procedure and article 32 investigation. in this particular case there's plenty of evidence that he should be charged. >> if he's charged and found guilty what do you think the punishment should be? >> depends on what the facts are. you have -- to prove desertion, you have to prove intent to stay away. in theory the penalty for being found guilty of desertion is death. it's not likely in this case. >> extreme in this case. >> it would be especially since part of the time he was away because he was captured. if he told people in his unit he was leaving permanently, he has a problem.

the likelihood is he didn't say that. that he -- as a matter of fact before this all began, when he was first captured there was the exchange there was a lot of talk from his -- people in his unit saying the guy was a doper. he spent a lot of time wandering off, going to find hash buy hash in the local village and so on. so i think that an extreme penalty is unlikely. >> also you mentioned this a minute ago, there was a reporting this week that one of the taliban five these people who we traded to get bowe bergdahl back. one of them having communication with militants, against the restrictions put in place when the deal was cut. john kirby from the pentagon was asked about this on friday. i'll play what he said. >> what i can tell you is that we remain confident, as we were when we sent them there, that the assurances we received are

sufficient enough to mitigate any future threat these individuals may pose. >> this was the whole debate back when bergdahl came back. do we leave anybody behind? do we get our people out no matter what the cost? even if the cost is five taliban going back or do we make an exception in this case. when you look at that debate and this, what do you think? >> i said on the air at the time i thought it was a rotten deal. i wasn't the only one. i think the idea of getting your troops back no matter what it costs in the military operation, that makes a great deal of sense. we followed that dictum for a long time. the question about whether or not you make a deal like this for a guy like bergdahl that's a different story altogether. i and lots of other people said at the time that it was something you should not do. >> shouldn't have made the deal. >> no, you're going to exchange a guy like bergdahl for five dangerous people at least some of who will wind up killing americans or our allies. it's a rotten deal.

it was a media event, unfortunately the white house did not do its homework. you had the family showing up. it appeared they didn't know what kind of guy bergdahl was in the first place. i said at the time and i think everybody -- reasonable people with military experience would agree it was a rotten deal. >> was a celebratory feel i remember that day. >> for no good reason. >> then the debate kicked in. my thanks. >> you bet. >> i didn't try to get a super bowl prediction out of you. >> seahawks. >> how a smile from bill belichick could make you money. he doesn't do it often. next haters going to hate. keep it here.

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england patriots should be america's team. the pats are about to appear in their sixth super bowl in the past 14 years. they won three of those gapes already. and won ten games a year for the last 12 years, they have the best coach and best quarterback in the nfl with bill belichick and tom brady. instead the patriots are practically the most hated team in the nfl. they finished second to the cowboys in a recent poll on which team americans hate the most. so how could one of pro sports most celebrated teams be one of its more reviled? maybe it's the cheating accusations? spygate, deflategate. or maybe those accusations are more of a convenient coddle for all of those fans who hate the patriots. it's something to taunt new england and fans with. or maybe the source is bill belichick, his dour demeanor and one-word press answers. or maybe it's just that in sports americans actually don't love winners. they love to hate winners and

cheer to see them lose. they like underdogs. long-time boostonian former sports columnist bob ryan is with us and drew magary with deadspin who wrote a column urging people not to root for the patriots. we thought he would be the perfect person to bring on. drew let me start with you. i'm guessing you're speaking for about 95 % of america what is the case of hating the patriots? >> that's exactly right. i'm here for 95% of americans, steve. the problem is in my eyes there is a disproportionate amount of media people and writers who happen, for some reason, to come from new england backgrounds. every frigging patriots and if ends up being a professional writer or broadcaster somehow. so what happens is you have all these people who are boston fans, they grow up being writers, sportscasters, you hear about the patriots, red sox, celtics from them. and not only do boston people

drone on and on about their teams but they expect you to care. instead of simply not caring which is what i usually do i have grown to loathe boston sports teams and i root for them to fail. >> it sounds like you're saying it's over exposure. >> it's over exposure but also the type. the patriots could win today and pats fans would still complain that the helmet catch was lucky. it's enough. there is always a bit of triumphant misery to go along with the winning. they could win ten years in a row and this they would still find something to complain about, because they're from boston boston people tend to be unpleasant. >> full disclosure, i'm one of those boston massachusetts guys in the media. >> see? >> i'm not miserable. i'm smiling. what you are hearing from drew,

they don't like the patriots, patriots hating is a big thing right now. how does boston handle that? do people say it's jealousy? >> the prevailing opinion here is people rooting against a proven winner, which is not the case. drew has drawn this to all boston teams. i don't have to remind him but prod him one of the reasons people take that opinion is because in the 21st century, there's no other city with eight parades, four cities to the finals, and we can boast a championship in each of the four major sports which may remain true well into the 21st century. in this situation, there's only one reason people hate the patriots, it's not because we're good, don't hate me because we're beautiful, it's the coach. in 2002 when they beat the rams they were beloved. why? when they took the field, they took the field unmasked.

they did not have the individual introductions. america fell in love with them. they were the toast of america. but they have squandered all of that via spygate and the continuing public presence of a dour coach, as you mentioned. that's it. they hate belichick. they don't hate brady or wilfork. they hate bill check. that's belichick. >> even though belichick can be ornery that's more of a media issue. owe doesn't have much to say except for this past week for some magical reason. when he gets accused of spygate, deflategate, it's a byproduct of the fact that the team wins a lot. when teams start winning a lot i naturally start to hate them because my team never wins anything. who is your crappy team? >> the vikings. the vikings are terrible. >> let me ask you a question drew -- >> i latch on to anything i can to disprove that team that's winning too much because i don't

want them to enjoy the winning. because that wouldn't be fun for me because my team always loses. >> why was there no such thing towards the steel curtain steelers or the 49ers? >> i don't like the steelers. i don't like the 49ers. i don't like any of them. i hate them all. >> that's you. >> yeah. >> i never heard a negative word about the 49ers ever? >> really? you have to get out. >> i get out a lot. i get out a lot. i'm telling you, this is a bunch of poppynothing. you're wrong about belichick, i'm telling you, this is not about the media, it's about the fans. the media understands them better than the fans. the fans only see them on sunday when they should never appear in public. by thursday or friday he's -- >> can we say there is something about sports where we like to

cheer for the underdog? i think about the ncaa basketball tournament. you get the arenas the 16th steed who nobody knows takes kansas down to the wire and 90% of the people in the stands are standing on their feet and they want the little guy, and they want to see the big guy fall. >> bob thinks it's strictly a boston fan thing, which is true. boston fans are annoying in their own specific way, but they take that and think that makes them special and different from other fans which is not true. somehow makes them more annoying than other fans does that make sense? >> bob? >> i preach this gospel to the people here all the time. you are not entitled. you are no better than any other set of fans. you're the luckiest set of fans in america because you have won eight times in this century and you have won in all four sports. i tell them this. >> but they don't listen to you.

>> they're not better than other fans. >> but they don't listen to you. ah give me another beer. i bet they don't listen to you at all. >> the thing about it that's important on this particular issue, drew is this. fans here have never come to grips with spygate. don't understand that has the ramifications were in the outside world. they don't get it. they don't know it's a stain that will never go away. they don't know if the patriots win today, people will not give these great players their full credit because they will still hate the patriots and assume something was amiss and they will always hate belichick. the spygate will never go away. no one here wants to accept that. >> let me just say i'm in new york now, but as a kid who grew up in the '80s and '90s with the boston sports teams, we will also never forget when the patriots were terrible. >> i don't want to hear that. >> when i was a kid, i could not watch a patriots game on television because sullivan

stadium was half full and it was blacked out. there's a lot of patriots fans who say we went through rod, rust, and everything if we need to be the enemy, we'll take it. >> you don't get -- >> has this has been a fun discussion. i'm sorry, we're out of time. i would love to keep going with this. how to make extra money at your super bowl party tonight, and the latest from chicago where a potential blizzard bears down on the community. okay buddy what's your favorite kind of cheerios? honey nut. but... chocolate is my other favorite... but apple cinnamon is my favorite too... and fruity... oh yeah, and frosted! okay, but...what's you're most favorite of all? hmm... the kind i have with you. me too.

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seeing now and what you're expecting. >> first off, i don't need you to be telling me we're under a blizzard warning right now. i'll tell you that much because we're standing in it. i can give you sort of kevin's unscientific weather report here. that is that the winds are blowing about 780 million miles an hour. the snow is blowing sideways. at this degree i understand that 750,000 flights have been canceled here at o'hare airport. and i can also tell you that it's pretty darn miserable out here. you can see lake michigan? it looks like a gigantic slushy. this thing is just getting underway. we understand between now and midnight or overnight, we will have about a foot to 15 inches of snow. perfect for nestling up in front of the fireplace and watching the big game this afternoon. that's the advice from me out here this morning. >> wow, kevin tibbles, from my vantage point, it looks like

you're on the iceberg in the arctic circle. that's a scary-looking place. >> i think that's exactly where i am. the only thing is that the people who actually live in the arctic are smart enough to stay indoors on a day like today. i got the place pretty much to myself. though i have to tell you, there are actually joggers out here this morning running around. and, you know, go figure. >> they are the most dedicated athletes. rain snow sleet, blizzard. thanks to kevin tibbles live for us in chicago. still ahead, the role of luck, getting lucky and making money. that's next. there's confidence. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts mean your peace of mind. now you can get the works, a multi-point inspection with a synthetic blend oil change tire rotation, brake inspection and more.

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game, a huge part of football it's a huge part of the economy, gambling. a lot of money will be wagered in vegas at the off-shore casinos. people can get to them online with phones or computers. what are we talking about in terms of the amount of money gambled? >> you will see figures out there. i don't believe any of them. i think for all the off-shore and vegas, people are making more illegal bets. >> like the bookie down the street? >> yeah. that still goes on. you said the nfl doesn't like talking about it. i think they don't acknowledge that they don't like talking about it but they know it's one of the drivers of their sport. unlike the ncaa tournament which is now a gambling enterprise people love football. that's why they want to bet on football rather than the other way around. man, do they love to bet on football. >> so they're already fans. >> and you have opinions about these things. they really wanted to put money

on how much rushing guards because they already have an idea of how many rushing guards, as opposed to the ncaa tournament where it's gonzaga, i have no idea. >> it's the principle of the more you know, the worse you do. >> the guys setting the odds always know more than you. >> with that in mind let's take you through some of the ways this is our money-making segment or money losing segment. let's talk about some of the bets you are making today. actually, this is from the start of the season. at the beginning of the season, you could go out to one of these sports books and say i bet the denver broncos will win the super bowl. the start of the season denver and san francisco you could see. these were the two teams people thought would win it. 6/1, bet 1$1 win 600. >> that was preseason. they both started the season slow. by midseason, seattle was looking bad. you could have gotten longer odds on them at that point.

they were less likely to win the super bowl in week eight than in week one. this is like the stock market. >> except the stock market is not priced to lose. if you make bets on all the teams and whoever wins you will still lose a ton of money. 6/1 is not the true odds. the stock market will be closer to the true odds. >> jacksonville, this was the longest odds on the board. if you put a dollar on them they would have 200. this is the point spread for tonight's game. so quick primer what is the point spread, how that works. >> point spread this is invented for football. it's a way to make up the difference between the bad team and the good team. pick 'em means they don't think either team is better than the other. in the history of the super bowl all the advanced positions this is the closest it's been. i think some have new england as a one-point favorite. the one between one and

pick 'em, pick 'em mean there's is no point spread. just pick a team straight up. >> we were looking around. the place we decided to use, a few say the patriots by a point. one said patriots by two points. you can shop around a bit. >> but the one that says patriots by two points you may have to pay more to get that. you're paying 10% which is called the vig. to win $100 you have to bet 110, to get that two-point spread you may have to bet 115 or 120. this is called the over and under. 47 1/2. what is this? >> total number of points scored by both teams. i think betters like to bet the favorite. they also like to bet the over. so this might be high especially when you take into account the history of the patriots of the super bowl. they come in with great offenses and underperform. and seattle has the best defense. >> mike pesca, the tout says take the under? >> what i'm saying is to be fair and cautious bet the mortgage

bet the kids college money, msnbc endorsed. >> 50% chance you'll win. you can actually bet the coin toss. this is why the gamblers will always win. you have to bet $105 to win $100 on heads. heads was on this incredible winning streak. i think the super bowl coin it's not like a regular coin. the mint has nothing to do with it. i think it's weirdly weighted. i held super bowl coins. the heads is more con savecaveoncave. i would bet heads. again, msnbc endorsed. >> we'll have a 1-900 number at the end of this. these are called prop bets. in the super bowl it's a game where everybody in the country is watching. they come up with these random bets that you can only bet for this game. >> some of the bets, ones bet on chance las vegas will book

this. but there's crazy stuff. like how much will the knicks score in the first quarter versus how many total points will seattle score in the game. number of references to, you know, katstyle. >> i would take the seahawks in that knicks comparison. we have a bunch of these funny, crazy, random prop bets and we'll show them to you and get mike's take on them when we come back. your mom's got your back. your friends have your back. your dog's definitely got your back. but who's got your back when you need legal help? we do. we're legalzoom, and over the last 10 years, we've helped millions of people protect their families and run their businesses. we have the right people on-hand to answer your questions backed by a trusted network of attorneys. so visit us today for legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here. when the game's on the line. hit him with a hard count, see if they'll tip their hand.

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all right, we're back at the big board with mike pesca talking about these prop bets these crazy, only on super bowl sunday bets that you can go make, try to make some money on. we're going to go through some of the funnier ones. this is something you can bet on. how many times will the word "deflated balls" be said tonight. how many times will that be said? they have set the over/under at

3. what's a good bet? >> it has to be deflated it can't be a reference to psi or underinflated. al michaels has to set the scene. you have to say it once or twice. he's a funny guy. i think he'll make a joke. because the over/under is three if it only hits three, you win your money back so i'd take the over. >> will bill belichick smile during the game on camera? >> no i wish the word "smile" were in quotes. i could see him grimacing or a clenched teeth upturn of the lips. >> how do you define a smile? >> it's with the eyes. rarely do we see belichick smile. it's hard with all the dark side of the force working within him. >> let's see what else we've got here. bill belichick hoodie top. he's been known to cut them off. >> glendale arizona, i hear they want to keep the roof open. that's usually a good predictor for half sleeve. >> and now we've got will it be mentioned that pete carroll was the last head coach of the patriots. i say absolutely. >> how could you not, again.

this is during the game. there are 70,000 hours of pregame and will be mentioned 70,000 times but i think michaels will do it. >> now it gets a little funky. which song will katy perry perform first at halftime. you look at this list. what do you say? >> okay i've done a lot of research on this. i'm incorporating elements of technology history and musicology. i've looked over the last first songs at halftime for the last four years. so you have i've got a feeling, you have vogue, the beyonce song billion girls, bruno mars last year. all were in major key tonality. then what i did was i programmed my pandora with all of those songs, right, heaven is locked all four of those songs and katy perry as a whole on the play list to see what the pandora al gore rhythm would pop out. fire work. fire work is a major, major key

tonality. >> "firework". >> and look at these numbers. you bet $100 you win 225. >> we're talking mortgage kids college, firework. also, it's either going to start or end the show. i think she needs to gain credibility with the football fans. the outfit goes far but she has to show we're here to play some out a little smash mouth, play action, go for the bomb on first down. "firework" is your pick. book it. >> he wants the under and take heads on the coin toss. there it is folks. you buy a new house next week if you listen to mike. i want to thank you for taking us through all of that. thank you for getting up with us this morning. i think we all know where we'll all be tonight, watching the big game. it starts at 6:30. you can catch it on nbc. but first, stick around for melissa harris-perry she has got a big special super bowl

themed show herself and that starts next. have a great week. there's confidence. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts mean your peace of mind. now you can get the works, a multi-point inspection with a synthetic blend oil change tire rotation, brake inspection and more. $29.95 or less.

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this morning my question did you see how lynch responded to questions this week? plus the cash cow that is the nfl. and the ladies of the league. but first i have a confession to make. i love football. >> hi everyone. my name is melissa. >> hi melissa. >> i'm a fan. so, everyone i guess it all began when i watched my first football game. i mean i was just a kid. i loved to sit with my daddy in his big chair as he cheered his team and ranted against the opposition. listening to him while he watched football was