american express' timeless safety and security are now available on apple pay. the next evolution of membership is here. 38 and done. all right, good morning. thanks for getting up with us. happy easter sunday out there to all of you who celebrate that. keep an eye out for holiday-themed additions to our pastry plate this morning. they look very delicious from here, at least. anyway, those who didn't get to watch last night waking up this morning to some stunning news that the wisconsin badgers upset the undefeated kentucky wildcats late last night on college basketball's biggest stage. we are going to have more on how kentucky's dream of going a historic 40-0 and being anointed

college basketball's best team ever ending ed-- ended in just a minute. more campaigns kicking off in the days ahead. rand paul poised to enter the race in kentucky on tuesday. we'll take a look at how things really stand heading out of the starting gate. will congress scuttle that final nuclear deal with iran? the effort to wrest control from the white house is picking up steam. plus life after harry reid for democrats in the senate. the fight to repopulate the leadership when he's gone is getting incredibly personal. we'll have details on that. also what will "the daily show" look like under its new host. that hour has shamed the debate on media and politics in this country more than a decade so what happens when steve colbert and jon stewart are both gone. finally, it's opening night tonight for major league baseball. as we're getting ready for the

boys of summer we thought we'd see how the teams stack up against the presidential field. i promise it will all make sense or at least a little bit of sense when we get to that ahead in the show. but we begin this morning with the quest for perfection denied. it is the news that everyone is waking up to this morning. it's the news that some of us stayed up very late last night to witness. it is the stunning upset of the university of kentucky basketball team by wisconsin in the final four. >> the shot is launched. there will be no undefeated champion. on wisconsin with an unbelievable stretch drive. >> kentucky entering the game last night with a record of 38 wins, no losses. the most consecutive wins any team had ever racked up to start a season just two wins away from what was their dream, a perfect 40-0 season and a national championship. the wildcats roared through the regular season with a roster loaded with size and talent and

depth. it was a team that barely trailed in any games all season. it was a team so dominant many believed it could have competed isn't the nba. last night the wildcats were outplayed by the scrappy badgers. this was a revenge game for wisconsin. a year ago they lost in the final four for kentucky and they were ready for this rematch, dominating the boards turning up the heat on defense and closing strong to overcome a late kentucky lead and to win the game 71-64. a seven foot senior named frank kaminsky led the way for wisconsin. they will now play duke for the national championship monday night. meanwhile for kentucky a season that seemed destined for the history books ends in bitter disappointment. stunned wildcats and their coach left to ponder afterwards just how it could have gone so wrong. >> we all wanted to win those last two. these kids wanted to win it in the worst way.

but you've got to give wisconsin credit. they did to us what we have done to teams. >> the shock of the loss extending also to kentucky's rabid fan base. a thousand or so kentucky students according to the "louisville courier journal" storming a residential area after the game lighting small fires, chanting insults about wisconsin. local officials calling the students, quote, rowdy and at times hostile. police in riot gear arresting 31. three others taken to a nearby hospital. the unrest ending in the early hours of the morning in lexington. kentucky had been seeking to become the first college team to complete an undefeated season since the indiana hoosiers in 1976 but that streak will live on at least for another year. and for wisconsin, meanwhile, a chance to savor an upset of the ages as they turn their attention to monday night's championship game. >> it was just the end. the last five minutes again. these guys just gutted it out. i told them i'll hang out on the

sideline 40 minutes monday night, so here we are. >> and joining me now to talk about all this we have mike pesca. mike, this game i'm a little tired this morning because i stayed up late. try to put this in perspective, if you could. we say this is a monumental upset. how big of a shock was this? what happened? >> well they were a five-point favorite. but this was the kind of game where we could talk about all the things tactically that wisconsin did. sorry to rest on cliches, the word i come up with is resilient. wisconsin was down. kentucky had gone on a big run late in the second half. and so many other teams had and we said oh we've seen this before. kentucky escapes with a two-point win against notre dame. they had been taken to overtime a couple of time. this is where the other team

wilts and where kentucky shows what it can do. man, did wisconsin punch back. not just stopping the wildcats but causing shot clock violations, such tremendous defense. i like statistics i like tactics. heart. i really do think heart won this game. >> it was sort of a revenge game. they lost in this round last year. like you were saying it was three straight possessions down the stretch where kentucky couldn't get the shot off. they had the shot clock violation. this is certainly true for me. this was a kentucky team that a lot of people liked to cheer against. >> yeah, sure because i think there are a lot of traditionalists, they don't like the one and done kids who play for a year and go on to the pro. i am fine with it. i think that's where the game is and to owe press these athletes is wrong. still, frank kaminsky a senior this dominant first round pick as a senior that's great to

seechlt the team playing together, that's great to see. kentucky, nine mcdonald's all americans, the best players in the country. after their first five leaves the five you still have a bunch of nba players coming ins asubs. wisconsin had some draft picks for the nba but they were not nearly as heralded. >> you mentioned these one-and-dones. you're there for a season and then in the nba. that was the subtext. this is a clash between the new kentucky and wisconsin, more traditional experience, and specious experience had some benefits last night. >> i really don't buy that. i think it's reductive and unfair to the best scholar athletes but it's true. if these guys hadn't played together so long they wouldn't have had this chance against kentucky. it's not to say all kentucky did was go out and try to be more athletic than other teams. they have great tactics and are wise at basketball. but some of those hoosier

instincts, some of those more kind of even let's say, we want the hometown boys to do good we want to beat this seemingly unbeatable team, kentucky's lineup is taller. they fielded a taller lineup than every nba team this year except one. there was one game the utah jazz put up a taller lineup. >> could they have competed with an nba team? >> the knicks are terrible, so yeah they would have lost by eight to the knicks. this is a team that will have two top five picks, a bunch of top ten picks. they're a fantastic team. wisconsin against duke does wisconsin say we already won our national championship or do they ride the momentum. i look at these other big semifinal upsets. in 1991 unlv loses to duke and duke goes on to win the championship. think about 1980 the miracle on ice. to u.s. that wasn't the gold medal game. i do think once you get over

that hurdle even though las vegas says the championship game is a pick 'em, they don't even have a favorite. i think what wisconsin did will be momentum building and give them confidence. >> i think there probably is some disappointment out there in the suites at cbs headquarters because they're going to telecast this game monday night. if kentucky would have won they would have had duke versus kentucky, two storied programs big rivalry there. do you think there will be interest? >> everyone hates duke. who's the guy who watches the semifinal game and says i don't want to watch the final. >> exactly. >> are you invested in wisconsin? and since duke is this also loathe team i think sometimes for unfair reasons. actually it's funny, they're the exact opposite of the charge that you make against kentucky. one is all one and dones, the other is too much pretty more prep school. what happens if these kids from the badgers can slay those

dragons. >> in that kentucky/duke one, i think i was going to cheer for duke for the first time in 25 years but now it's very easy i'm with wisconsin in this one. mike, thanks for that. we'll see you on the panel in just a bit. coming up he may represent kentucky in the senate but rand paul has a rooting interest in tomorrow night's championship game. he's a dukie. we will get into that on the other side of this break. and then i saw him slowly coming down the aisle. one of those guys who just can't stop talking. i was downloading a movie. i was trying to download a movie. i have verizon. i don't. i get that little spinning wheel. download didn't finish. i finished the download. headphones on. and i'm safe. i didn't finish in time. so. many. stories. vo: join us and save without settling. verizon. does all greek yogurt have to be thick? does it all have to be the same? not

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the race for president is about to heat up considerably. on tuesday, rand paul will be in his home state of kentucky to make it official he is running. that will make him the second candidate to formally enter the race. ted cruz jumping in with a splash just a few weeks ago at liberty university. those two will be quickly joined

by another contender, florida senator marco rubio expected to formally declare his candidacy a week from tomorrow. paul and rubio both running in the middle of the gop pack. each eyeing a slightly different path to the party's nomination. rubio with more of an insider game plan trying to excite the party's conservative base while also pitch himself to leaders of the party establishment. paul as you might expect playing more of an outsider's game. rand paul will bring to this race a considerable built-in base thanks to the devoted following that his father ron paul gained among libertarian-leaning republicans and that is a base rand paul has grown during his four years in the senate. paul also inherits the same challenge his father faced, how to win acceptance from a party establishment that thinks his views or outside the mainstream. it's how the ground has shifted

within the republican party and how does complicated things for paul a year or so ago. paul was even leading in a poll taken last spring. that was before most americans had ever heard of isis and before the group began beheading westerners. before the conflict between russia and ukraine spiraled out of control and before the republican party began reembracing its old zeal for more intervention. paul also broke with most republicans and supported president obama's move to normalize u.s. relations with cuba. rand paul was well positioned to run when the iraq and afghanistan wars were the first thing when people thought about when they thought about foreign policy, but now that we're in the age of isis can he still compete? james carroll, reporter in louisville where senator paul will be making that speech on tuesday. james, let me start with you. what can we expect rand paul to

be saying this week? he's been very quiet in the last couple of weeks. on the indiana law they said no announcements on policy. >> he also said nothing about the recent iran agreement which other republicans have weighed in on. his main approach is to sort of reintroduce himself to people. he's the third familiar name in the presidential race. you've got clinton, you've got bush and you've got paul. i think he's going to reintroduce himself to a lot of people who will focus a little more on the race and he's going to really -- his main -- one of his key approaches his path to the nomination he hopes is to try to reach out to the constituencies that the rest of the republican party candidates are not talking to. he wants to reach out to minority communities, he wants to go places where the republican party hasn't gone. that is part of their strategy is to try to broaden that base. he's got the libertarian wing of the party kind of nailed down as you referenced. but you've got to broaden it if

you want to get past 8%. i think the real clear politics average of his polls, he's about 11% right now, which is about half of jeb bush. how are you going to catch up to jeb bush and surpass jeb bush. you have to broaden that base somehow. he's very, very savvy when it comes to social media. money bombs and using all the social media to reach out to constituencies that you don't traditionally think of as being rah-rah for the gop, especially young people. >> and we saw with ted cruz jumping in his poll numbers, we'll talk about this later in the show his poll numbers took off as a result of that announcement so we'll see if those numbers budge for rand paul. let me set this up this was a poll of republican party insiders that politico took this week and they were surveying attitudes towards the candidates. it gets to what we were talking about in the intro, tat idea about rand paul having a tough sell with the establishment, 63%

of these republican insiders who were surveyed by politico say that they consider rand paul an isolationist and only 16% think he could beat hillary. that term isolationist in so many corners that's a poisonous label to have affixed to yourself. here's two out of three of the elites in the republican party saying that's what they think of rand paul. it seems like he has a problem there. >> i think that's true, steve. hovering over rand paul is a question of political identity. something you'll hear republicans say a lot, is he the guy who said in 2009 that dick cheney took us into iraq to benefit halliburton or is he the guy who signed tom cotton's iran letter? and these two identities one, is he ron paul's son or is he more hawkish. he's tried to pivot to become a more hawkish candidate is hovering over him. he's going to have to resolve

this question very convincingly once he announces his candidacy. whether he can do that i think, will determine how successful he is on the campaign trail. >> and have you seen -- we've seen the rise of isis. one thing when you polled all americans on the question of boots on the ground in the middle east, after isis after the isis beheadings began, the number of americans, all parties who support some kind of u.s. president or boots on the ground has really gone up considerably. has that changed the receptiveness toward paul in the republican party? >> it certainly hasn't helped rand paul. and he'll say he's not an i lags isolationist. but i think there's a perception among republicans where you have to say i'm not something, it certainly raises suspicions that perhaps you are. and so for rand paul i think discussing what his foreign

policy views are is going to be something he has to do on the campaign trail. the question really isn't does he support a less interventionist foreign policy but does he have these sort of conspiratorial views. i think that's the tension and the question that he's going to have to resolve. does he think dick cheney took us to war to benefit halliburton halliburton, does he think american soldiers were electrocuted in the shower. these are things that certainly his competitors for the nomination will raise because he's on tape saying them and he's going to have to absolutely answer those questions. so i think it's more about the views that are considered conspiratorial within the republican party than his more isolationist or noninterventionist leanings. >> let me ask you that shall, james. ron paul is somebody obviously there's a lot of corners of the republican party that do not like ron paul. how has he and how will he

manage his connection to his father, which is unavoidable at a certain level? >> and it's a tough balance to strike because obviously he's proud of his father he loves his father he campaigned for his father. as a result he's not a stranger -- rand paul is not a stranger in new hampshire and iowa and places like this so he's known. and it's because of his father that he's entering this presidential race to a great extent because his last name is paul. he has this built-in base built-in organization built-in fund-raising. it's sort of a legacy from his father but it is a tough balance for him. his father is still writing op-ed pieces and columns references conspiratorial theories. once you're a candidate for president, you're going to be asked about all this. i also wanting to get back to a point about the foreign policy issue. there is a record out there that he has to somehow get straight with the republican base which is when he came in to congress he said he was against all foreign aid.

all foreign aid. he proposed a budget with no foreign aid in it cut it off. >> and this gets to israel. >> it got to israel very quickly because he later revised one of his budget proposals to include israel and nobody else. and since then he has sort of modified it a little more. obviously he's trying to find a place that he still feels comfortable with. i think a lot of republicans and a lot of americans still have sort of a feeling against foreign aid. so that's an understandable thing. but when it comes to israel and when we're talking about what's going on in the middle east and in africa it puts paul in a different spot than he was when he first came to washington just a few years ago. >> those are questions in the republican party particularly that you don't want to be on the defensive about. that's the thing i've been wondering about rand paul in all of this. given the change in the climate, i say because of isis but just in general, he's now taking this sort of defensive approach where he's trying to win over the establishment and move a little bit towards them on these national security questions. i wonder how -- it's a tough

sell, i think. >> and you're going to have a little tension the first time that jeb bush and rand paul meet because he has said that our intervention in iraq has led to a lot of the destabilization in the middle east and in africa. well that was george w. bush's policies in iraq. so that's on the record it's on tape. it's going to be very interesting conversations. >> my thanks to james carroll and eliana johnson. still ahead, more than one in every ten americans say they get their news from this man. we'll look at the staying power "the daily show" has in american politics. is it staying power? that's the other question raised here. next the surprising response chuck schumer gave when asked to support his roommate of 22 years. stay with us. audible safety beeping audible safety beeping

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senators chuck schumer and dick durbin are about as close as two senators could possibly be. after all, they lived together for over two decades, finally moving over their capitol hill apartment where they were roommates just last year. >> 22 years under the same roof? for goodness sakes, most marriages don't last that long. >> this is why it was surprising just a few days after locking up support to become the next democratic leader schumer did not commit to backing his long-time friend and roommate for the number two position. politico reporting that things erupt whed a durbin aide said schumer promised to support durbin. he already has the number two job saying schumer had declined to support him to keep that job and they had shook hands on it. an aide to schumer shot back that never happened and they know it. for years durbin was the second ranking democrat in the senate and thought to be the obvious successor to harry reid but

instead schumer is in line to succeed reid who is retiring and now there's the possibility dur win will be pushed out of leadership altogether. patty murray ran the party's campaign committee in 2012 the year democrats hung on to the senate against some tough odds. some saying that schumer -- with schumer stepping into the top spot the second leadership spot should go to a woman. so a lot of intrigue a lot of tension here. we have our panel here in new york eleanor clift, adolfo franka. sahil, if you could take us through the personal elementis because i think that's what makes this so fascinating. schumer and durbin lived together over 20 years. there was a long time where durbin was the undisputed number two on the democratic side. he's going to be the guy who

replaces harry reid. how did chuck schumer maneuver his way past dick durbin? >> it's true these two have feuded for years privately. they have lived together and been close in various ways but there's always a little tension because schumer's ambitions are clear. he's wanted to be the democratic leader for a while and he's pulled this off. the reason he's pulled this off as i understand it is that he has a knack for working with members directly he has a knack for sticking up for them. he has a way of building their trust and earning their loyalty and their respect in a way that durbin simply hasn't done. durbin is well liked, he is well respected, but he does not engage with members in the same way that senator schumer does. to answer your question i think it's the personal touch that made it work for schumer. >> so what is going to happen now? again, this is harry reid announces that he's retiring and now a week or two ago, chuck schumer quickly locks up the votes to replace him so he will

be the democratic leader in the senate. now there's a battle for number two spot. technically dick durbin has it right now, he's had it for years and schumer is saying i'm not going to commit to anything on that right now. >> it's unclear that there's going to be a battle at this point because senator murray hasn't specifically said she's going to challenge durbin. at this point durbin is still the favorite to remain whip. he's been that for a long time. there's no clear opposition to him and as whip he knows where the votes are. so it's an open question whether senator murray will attempt to challenge him there. it's important to remember that the number three slot opens up for senator murray now that senator reid is moving out and everyone is moving up. so the question is whether she's going to be as ambitious and as bold as to challenge durbin on this. it's possible that it does happen because there is some appetite for a change in the democratic caucus. she is very well liked. she is extremely beloved as one

source put it to me by the conference. she's taken on a number of roles where she's earned their trust, including being chair of the budget committee, including running the senate democrats campaign arm in 2012 when they should have had a bad election but they ended up winning two seats overall so she's done a lot to earn their trust. the fact of having a woman in the number two slot if not the number one slot has an obvious appeal as well. so she hasn't said anything about this. she's left the door open. she hasn't expressed interest in it. she's going to feel it out, see where the support is and make a decision later. >> the one thing we can say is there is some time here. this will not be until january, 2017. let me bring the panel in and this broader question of this leadership shuffle on the democratic side. the thing i think of big picture is harry reid as the democratic leader has been, outside of barack obama i can't think of a bigger target republicans have enjoyed hitting, raising money

off of firing up their base. harry reid has been that target for them for years now. what are they going to do? is chuck schumer going to become the new villain here? >> well nancy pelosi has always been the other target. they can shift to the other side of the capitol. i think going after senator schumer is a losing venture. he's a particular new york personality and i don't think you can get the country worked up over him. he's been in place for a long time. schumer actually elected the democratic majority. this is why they're so loyal to him. they want to get the majority back in 2016. they figure if anybody can do it, it's chuck schumer. with durbin and murray these are two very nice people. can two nice people finish in a tie or whatever. i don't see them locked in any kind of terrible feud. >> and adolfo in terms of schumer, the things i hear is

right now harry reid takes all the heat from republicans but chuck schumer has a pretty good working relationship with republicans. >> he does. >> when he becomes the leader there's sort of an expectation from the party's base that you're going to attack the leader of the other party. can those relations that he's built in the senate with republicans survive once he's in that position? >> i think it's going to be difficult. maybe in the good old days when people used to get along before we had such coverage in television and so forth, even the senate itself now that it's covered by television i think will be very difficult to maintain that relationship. that's absolutely true he has worked very well with republicans. look at the immigration bill for example. he was key to making that -- >> teaming with john mccain. >> to making that work. but you know eleanor, i think that new york personality can go both ways with the rest of the country. i think you'll see republicans -- i'm not just saying this on political terms, have to really take issue with senator schumer when he does take on the very liberal

ajengda, which he will have to in 2017. so i think he will succeed harry reid in that role i venture to say, just as they have tried to develop senator mcconnell. >> the dynamic will live on. >> i don't think so. >> thank you sahil kapur. we'll see you in the next hour. next, what pope francis is speaking out this easter sunday. and if it's your birthday senator tom cotton probably wants to celebrate with you. we'll explain why right after this. ♪ you're only young once. unless you have a subaru. (announcer) the subaru xv crosstrek. symmetrical all-wheel drive plus 34 mpg. love. it's what makes a subaru

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presidential field early. some are chafing it with a view of the bush camp's presumption of their loyalty. i've been saying this for a while now. i'm looking at jeb bush's poll numbers and saying for all the talk of hundreds of millions of dollars and bandwagon, this is a party whose base largely doesn't want to nominate this guy. >> i have sources urging me to predict on the mclaughlin group that the collapse of the bush juggernaut is going to be the next big story. i'm not willing to do that. >> not going that far. >> exactly. >> why not? >> because he's following his brother's playbook. it did work. i know we're in a new era. i still think he's the strongest candidate they can put up against hillary clinton, who's the likely democratic nominee. he's a grownup. if you woke up tomorrow and you heard jeb bush was president, you may not have voted for him, you may not like him but you wouldn't have to move to canada

or wherever liberals go. >> but you might think it's 2006. isn't the word "inevitable" a journalistic straw man? how can you say he's inevitable? he's number one in one poll in new hampshire and number four in iowa. i think the talk of inevitability with hillary clinton -- he has the most strengths, right? i would say he's not 55% likely to get the nominee. but if everyone in the field he's the likeliest. that doesn't mean he's likely but he's the likeliest. >> but it does seem adolfo we talk about these polls. george w. when he was running i can remember on the republican side, 40 50%, he was way away. i'm seeing jeb bush at 16%. >> well we didn't have six or eight or nine candidates. we didn't have that many candidates in 2000. that's the first instance. secondly, if you look at historically the republican party, and it could break with

tradition, jeb bush is the likely nominee. we tending to be as republican and nominate the conventional choice. so i think when you look at those numbers, they're pretty good numbers. they're steady numbers and he hasn't even announced. so i take very much consolation in the fact that he's always at the top of the list. he knows this conventionally, the republican party's base and 50% of activist republicans identify themselves as evangelicals. this has always been the challenge for middle of the road centrists. >> we talk about jeb versus the field. if i had to make a bet right now i'd take the field over jeb. >> we can't nominate the field. >> that's right. that's why i'm hedging on everything here. we've got -- let's see here

this is in "the new york times" magazine. let's take another look. tom cotton tells the magazine that he runs a lot every morning so that he can eat birthday cake. they said every day? most days with ice cream. early on my wife and i were dating i told her sometimes i just buy birthday cakes and i eat them. she said really? i do too. that's the part of the story i have trouble with. this is such an unusual habit to be a birthday cake connoisseur and yet he randomly married one too. >> for all the match.com algorithms they don't have this. i don't think that's healthy too. >> does the running cancel out the birthday cake? >> he's got a very long lanky body to feet. i don't know what his wife looks like. i hope she's gifted with the same body. >> be careful, steve, if you

invite him here. >> he'll jog over and help himself. this is "the boston globe." fighting to save cursive from the common core. we talk about these in the presidential race but here's one thing about them. they do not include any requirements for handwriting instructions. education experts questioning whether students need to be taught two entirely different styles of handwriting. now a movement to install cursive writing is some kind of requirement. i remember learning cursive. i don't know how you would describe my actual handwriting now. it's an indecipherable scrawl. but do we need to teach kids this anymore? >> actually we don't, but i hate to see it go. i must say most adults are like you, have indecipherable handwriting. we don't write long letters to each other. >> we write with our thumbs now. >> penmanship class -- >> i always got bad grades there. >> i share eleanor's view since

i'm from that generation so i regret it. by the same token, when we look back, we look back at things we regret to change how many people are doing what monks used to do with beautiful calligraphy. >> i hope we get away with signatures. i buy $7 of stuff at cvs and give them my signature? >> as a form of i.d. i've been at the dmv where i signed it and they challenge me. that's not -- i said i never sign things the same way. >> you write your time on the stylus half of it doesn't even catch on. anyway still ahead, will the new host of "the daily show" mean a shift away from the formula that made the show so successful. first, pope francis speaks out at easter sunday mass. we'll tell you what you said right after this. ght... ye! empty seat next to me.

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just within the last hour pope francis weighing in about the agreement with iran over its nuclear program. in the pope's easter message, francis said this week's breakthrough in talks may be a, quote, definitive step toward a more secure and fraternal world. he also denounced the violence playing out in syria, iraq yemen, libya. he offered prayers for the young people killed at a university in kenya last week. tens of thousands of people packed st. peter's square for easter mass today. this despite heavy rains over there. still ahead, more on the state of those talks with iran whether congress is going to scuttle the deal here at home. and next getting ready for a "daily show" that doesn't have jon stewart. can there be a "daily show" without jon stewart? that's next. and now telcos using hp big data solutions are feeling the love, too.

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crazy democrats. the republicans holding up

lynch's nomination isn't them being racist. it's them being them. >> in the history of the country there have been 168 fill busters of presidential nominees. about half, 82 happened during the obama administration. >> they don't need a reason to hold up an obama appointee, it's part of their daily routine. >> 12% of adults told pew research last year that they rely on "the daily show" as a primary news source. will that be the case once jon stewart is no longer at the helm? comedy central announced that trevor noah a 31-year-old comedian from south africa will take over as "the daily show" host from stewart. he's practically unknown to american tv viewers, despite his huge international following. his first few days were a bit rocky, to say the least, with critics seizing on jokes that he made targeting jews and women. it looks like he'll survive the rollout and actually take the

anchor chair. so what is "the daily show" going to look like under his watch? stephen colbert has been already been replaced and that show is very different. it seems to focus on policy issues. the 2016 campaign is already under way but without stewart and colbert on comedy central, will campaign season comedy be less sharp. joining us is dave. let me start with that question what can we expect? it seems from 11 to midnight on comedy central was the block for just razor sharp political media satire. stewart, then colbert. now they're both gone. what's it going to look like in 2016? >> it's going to look like us crying into our milk and cookies before we go to sleep but i think we'll adjust and get to

like these new guys. i think if you see trevor noah's standup and see the showtime special, he's somebody who has a similar spirit to jon stewart. maybe not the same political sensibility but somebody who is not afraid to go after third rails. if somebody tells him you're not supposed to joke about that that's the kind of stuff he wants to joke about. he's very savvy and especially going into a presidential election, you don't want to abandon the political content of the show. >> i was thinking about it this week, and colbert is a whole other thing, such a character. but stewart on his show focuses so intensely on it's not just politics it's cable news politics. it's like he's got people watching cnn, this network, fox all the time. they're poking out hypocrisies, inconsistencies. i assume we're going to lose some of that because trevor noah is a different person and has different interests. >> of course it's driven by hi sensibilities. but he knows that he's

inheriting a terrific machine in terms of the writers and producers that are already there and a system that has worked. i think there's going to be a period of i would assume figuring things out, seeing what continues to suit his sensibilities, but comedy central has a great institution in this show and has really given them a place not only at the table of late-night comedy but in terms of really sort of helping to drive the day's media coverage. i don't see why they give that up. >> that's the other question bring the panel in here too. the role "the daily show" has played. this show didn't exist 15 years ago, the network was barely on anybody's radar and this is what drives it comedy central. >> i think it was the only necessary comedy show at times. i thought colbert was more genius doing this high wire out. but gold standard is a phrase he used. maybe colbert was the tech stock but this is the gold standard.

i want comedians to push the envelope. if this is where it's pushing it, i don't judge it so much on the tweets. i think he has a lot of charisma and potential. you compare his body of work before jon stewart's body of work before they took the show stewart was really sharp and incisive. that said we're looking at this like we're vetting a presidential nominee. how did he not do the advance work on these tweets. they need to fire a staffer. it's a little crazy. >> i agree. >> you don't have 12% that gets its news from comedy central and it goes down i'm okay with that. >> i was surprised it was only 12%. >> stewart wasn't stewart when he first started out. he grew into the role. i think noah is more of a comedian than a political strategist or satirist but i think he's going to grow into it too. i think that number is going to go up regardless because i think young people millennials, really distrust even cable news now. >> you made a good point too.

"the daily show" did exist before jon stewart. craig kilborn hosted it for a couple of years and the show was incredibly different than under jon stewart. >> it looked like a "saturday night live" weekend update segment stretched out to 30 minutes and done every night. it was kilborn's shoot from the hip -- >> i remember the first week stewart said we're going to phase this out. so it was four questions, then three questions and then "the daily show" as we know it was born. >> like a presidential candidate managing the transition. >> thanks to dave for stopping by. another full hour of news and politics is ahead, including the news of the week. the breakthrough in the nuclear talks wirnth iran. is congress to derail what president obama says may me his signature policy achievement. we'll find out, ahead.

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will the deal be scuttled? all right, thanks for staying with us this sunday morning. we're going to take a look this hour at how congress is trying to bypass president obama's breakthrough deal with iran. it started with tom cotton's letter and what now may be a vetoproof bill to take away the president's power. also ahead, why did this man spend 30 years on death row which his gun wasn't even used for the crimes for which he was convicted. it was an amazing story that raises serious questions about the justice system. we will talk to a lawyer who helped get him out of prison just two days ago. plus ted cruz is surging in the race for the republican presidential nomination. we'll try to figure out if it's just a fluke or do we have to

take the cruz candidacy seriously. there's a surprising name being bandied about to be the next mayor of london. we'll assess what that's about. plus it's a day of infinite hope and possibility for every baseball team. every fan with dreams of a pennant. does the presidential field have the same level playing field on its opening day? we'll explain that and have a little fun with it ahead this hour. but we begin with that historic deal under way with iran. a deal aimed at severely limiting iran's efforts to build a nuclear weapon. the announcement this week laying the framework for reaching a final agreement in less than three months in june. the clock on that now is ticking. iran's foreign minister saying yesterday that they could resume their numclear program if the west reneges. president obama is trying to head off attempts against the

deal at home. >> when you heard the inevitable critics of the deal sound off, ask them a simple question. do you really think that this verifiable deal if fully implemented, backed by the world's major powers is a worse option than the risk of another war in the middle east? if congress kills this deal not based on expert analysis and without offering any reasonable alternative, then it's the united states that will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy. international unity will collapse and the path to conflict will widen. >> now, the obama administration says that it does not need congressional approval for this deal because they say it's an agreement, not a formal treaty that would require senate ratification. however, a bill in which congress would give itself the power to derail the deal is now building momentum in the senate. this is legislation spearheaded by tennessee republican senator bob corker and it would give congress an up or down vote in

weather to lift sanctions in iran. if the obama administration can't lift sanctions on iran then the agreement will fall apart. the white house has promised to veto the bill if it reaches the president's desk but roll call reports that the bill is now just one vote shy of that vetoproof majority in the senate a two-thirds majority. it has 66 it needs 67. the white house hopes that they can use this week's breakthrough in negotiations to peel off democratic support that there are exists for that corker bill but that task is not going to be easy for the white house. virginia democrat tim kaine renewing his support for the bill even in the wake of the announcement of that iran deal on thursday. an independent senator, angus king from maine, is a co-sponsor of the bill and he appeared to waiver this weekend. asked if he would still vote for it king told politico yes, but is my answer depends on how it's handled the next two to three weeks. will the obama administration be able to rally democrats to their

side to keep the iran deal moving forward? can this congress which has had a hard time legislating actually come together and pass a bill the president so deeply opposes. what will be the shakeout here? we'll be joined by congressman joaquin castro. but we have isaac devore and sahil kapur back with us. isaac, let me start with you. that 67th vote that they need in the senate to get this corker bill to that vetoproof majority they have 66 right now. as we say, is there any indication of how many democrats may be wavering now that the framework has been announced? >> right, that's the real question here. we know that the members of the senate are unhappy with the way that the president has said he will go forward without looking for congressional approval.

but whether this becomes something that congress is looking to beat the president up on is going to determine whether the democrats are there with the republicans to support this bill. >> and so sahil, we say 66 right now. also how much is there for that potential to go higher? >> steve, the important thing to remember here is some of the democrats sponsoring this bill have qualified their support for it. angus king the independent senator. a number of democrats are on that page where if they view this as an effort by the republicans to undermine the president, they may say it's not the right time for it. the person steve, that i would keep my eye on very closely is chuck schumer, the democratic leader in waiting. he embodies the democratic dilemma very well because he's a consistent hawk on iran but a close ally of the president. so whichever way he goes i could see enough democrats following him. as democrats see this i think they're stuck in a dilemma because they don't want to be -- you know they want to have a

say. they want congress to have a say on this but they also don't want to be held responsible or be seen as responsible for socially starting another war in the middle east. so it's going to be a very difficult decision for all of them. a lot will depend on how the republicans handle it if they go it the tom cotton way or the corker way. he's very measured knows how to work with democrats and get them on his side. the white house will be lobbying as hard as they can to keep democrats so it's going to be tough. >> isaac, let me ask you about the other side. so much attention on the senate whether they can get the vetoproof legislation there. it would have to get the house as well. would this get the majority in the house as well? >> the thing that's going on here of course is that it's not clear when the sanctions would be lifted. it wouldn't happen -- it's not like on july 1st if this deal is

struck by june 30th then the sanctions all go away. the sanctions, according to what we know about the framework of the deal that was announced this week would start to be lifted when iran meets the conditions of the deal. that won't happen for potentially years from now when president obama won't be in office anymore and potentially a number of the senators and congressmen involved here won't be in office. >> thanks to isaac devo.re and sahil kapur. joining me now, joaquin castro a democrat thanks for joining me this morning. you released a statement saying that you were pleased and were optimistic about the deal or the framework for the deal this week. what in the days since the deal has come out. have you heard more from the white house, from the administration on this and where is your thinking on it right now? >> sure, no we've been in contact with them.

i think that the prudent thing to do would be for congress to wait until the final deal is struck and then make a decision about how they want to handle it. i think, steve, as tough a time as the president may have selling this deal to congress it would be even tougher for the congress to sell another war in the middle east to the american people. i think the president laid it out well. if our goal is to make sure that iran does not have a nuclear weapon, there are two routes here, either a diplomatic route or in the end, whether it's sooner or later, it's military action. so what was very disconcerting this week is that you saw people right away whether it was tom cotton or mark kirk or others seem to suggest or open the door right away before a final deal has been reached to military action. in my district and around the country, that is not a very popular thing and it should be a last resort. marco rubio, for example, said that we shouldn't take military action off the table.

i agree with that. that should be an option but it should be a last option. i would also point out that we also shouldn't take peace off the table and shouldn't take diplomacy off the table. >> i want to follow up on that. i understand the basic point you're making about if you're not going to pursue a diplomatic suit very that probably does put you on track towards conflict, but i guess the question is specifically this deal specifically this diplomatic route, is this if something that congress -- that your colleagues were to decide this is not a good deal or a deal in the interest of the united states, do you think by rejecting this specific deal we go on to a path to war? >> i think it certainly brings us closer. i think democrats are going to be -- you asked the question how will democrats react to this whether they will be part of the group in congress that ultimately brings this deal down. i think democrats are going to take a look at the specifics of the final deal whether it makes sense for the country. they're not going to be part of scuttling this deal just to help

people win political points with their base. and in a sense, it's a tough time to do this because we are just coming into the 2016 presidential cycle when folks -- when republican presidential candidates are trying to prove how different they are than president barack obama. are very reluctant to go along with anything that he's proposing. that's been the days for years now. but i hope for the sake of the nation and for the sake of the american people that congress will be able to take an objective look at this deal and i do think congress should have a role in vetting it. but if democrats sense that this deal has already been prejudged, that people -- that republicans are going to say no no matter what then i think you'll findingfind them much more reluctant to do something where the president is not able to veto what the congress does. >> that's play this out.

in a few months let's say a final deal is struck and iran will basically curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions that have been imposed by the united states being lifted at some point. so the case that congress would make, the case made for congress having an up/down vote on this would be hey, those sanctions that are at the heart of these negotiations, at the heart of this deal those sanctions were put in place by congress. if those sanctions are going to be lifted under the terms of the deal, shouldn't congress get a yes/no vote on that? not just an advisory role but a yes/no vote. >> that's an incredibly strong argument and i think congress should, but congress should only get that opportunity if the deal is not prejudged. in other words if you're saying no right now before you see the terms of it then you have essentially undermined your credibility. i think that's what's making it tough for democrats in congress right now, when they hear republicans speaking. >> what would be your inclination -- we say right now it's unclear, we talk about this bill in the senate that would give the senate oversight and

give the senate a vote on that deal. we're not sure what's working through the house. but if a similar bill were on the floor in the house, what would your position be? >> i've observed senator corker from tennessee i think has been very level headed and reasonable in this process even as others further to the right have reacted in a knee-jerk way. like i said i still support congress having a role but what i'm hoping is that this doesn't descend into another opportunity simply to bash the president and to say no just for the sake of saying no or to win political points in a presidential primary. and, steve, that process is still playing itself out. i suspect that you won't see anything significant from congress at least until a final deal is done. that's certainly my hope also. >> all right thank you for congressman joaquin castro democrat of texas. appreciate the time this morning. still ahead in this show the staggering amount of money that americans are spending on easter candy this year. it seems that we've done our fair share on the set today too.

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an alabama man is spending his first weekend as a free man after 30 years on death row. anthony ray hinton was released on friday after prosecutors determined that he did not fire the gun that killed two restaurant workers back in 1985. two 1985 robberies. the bullets found at the crime scene did not even match the revolver he had at his home. he spent three decades, more than half of his life three

decades in prison for crimes committed with someone else's gun. >> the miscarriage of justice not only to me but for the victims' families. for all of us that say we believe in the justice, this is the case to start showing because i shouldn't sit on death row 30 years. all they had to do was test the gun. but when you think you're high and mighty and above the law, you don't have to answer to nobody. but i've got news for you. everybody that played a part in sending me to death row, you will answer to god. >> research shows nearly 4% of capital punishment cases in this country are actually wrongful convictions. only about 2% of death row inmates are set free which suggests that two out of every 100 inmates on death row are not guilty. brian stevenson is the kpekt ufb director of the equal justice initiative and hinton's lead attorney. let me start with that scene. we heard from him in the video and saw him walking out to

freedom after 30 years. just describe for us if you would, what that scene was like on friday what you said to him, what he said to you when he stepped outside. >> well it was very exciting and very gratifying but also very tragic. you know his friends and family came to greet him, they hugged him. it was the first time they had seen him in a suit in 30 years, it was the first time he was free in 30 years. it was really really gratifying. we have been fighting so hard to get to this point. it was also bittersweet. this man has lost 30 years of his life. he was condemned to a 5 x 8 cell where the state of alabama tried to kill him every day. he experienced 53 executions. it was all unnecessary and could have been avoided had there just been some accountability, some integrity in our system. >> did this come with any kind of apology from the state, any attempt to rectify this somehow?

>> no. i think that's what's particularly maddening. the state has not acted responsibly from the very beginning. mr. hinton's case is a really powerful demonstration of the critique that our system treats you better if you're rich and guilty than if you're poor an innocent. he was convicted because he's poor. he didn't have the resources to get an attorney. his attorney was paid $1600 to defend him by statute. he couldn't find the money to get an expert to disprove this lie. but more importantly, when we presented evidence that the gun didn't match the bullets 16 years ago the state adamantly refused to test the evidence. i think that's grossly irresponsible. they chose to risk the execution of an innocent person rather than risk the perception that they're soft on crime or accommodating people accused of crime. that's the unconscionable part of this case. there has been no apology and not even been the kind of outreach that you'd suspect when you've done something as tragic as take 30 years from someone's

life. >> are you guys considering suing for damages, suing the state? >> we are going to pursue and explore all kinds of options, not only to help mr. hinton recover but there's got to be reform. i mean you know for every nine people we've executed in this country, we've now identified one innocent person who was on death row. mr. hinton was the 152nd person to be exonerated. and states aren't engaging in the kind of reform that you would expect when you have that rate of error so we're going to have to push them. i think that there are people who not only owe mr. hinton an apology, but owe the whole state an apology, including the victims, who were also denied justice by their persistence in pursuing charges against a man who was clearly innocent. >> can you talk a little bit about the families of the victims. the crime occurred back in 1985 they got the wrong guy for it. what has been their role all these years? >> well i think they were -- they wanted to believe that the right person had been convicted

and they were being told that over and over again, even when the evidence emerged that that wasn't true. mr. hinton actually was locked in a warehouse when one of the crimes took place and it was clear he didn't commit that crime. but they never were held accountable. they were never required to explain this. when we presented our evidence 16 years ago that completely exonerated him instead of going to the family and saying we may have the wrong person it's time to begin thinking about this case differently, everybody put their head in the sand. everybody said let's just hope we can get away with this and i think that's really really tragic. it took the united states supreme court overturning this case in a very rare posture, in a very rare grant that got this thing turned around. i fear for mr. hinton but also for the entire state what would have happened had that intervention not taken place. >> and finally, what -- he's 58 years old, i believe. as we say that's more than half

his life behind bars. what does he do now? >> well he's going to try to recover. he's going to try to get his life together. he's a remarkable human being. mr. hinton never lost his sense of humor, he never lost his dignity. in my 30 years of representing people on death row, i've never represented anybody who generated more support and good will and allegiance among correctional staff than ray hinton. i couldn't get in or out of that prison when i would go see him without someone saying we hope he gets out soon we're pushing for him. so he's going to recover and he's going to do the best he can, but there's no question it's traumatizing to go through what he's been through and it's going to be a long struggle. >> my thanks to brian stevenson, thanks for your time this morning. >> you're welcome. coming up the coveted voting block ted cruz has geared his entire campaign towards. it might be paying off for him right now. opening day and the rest of the morning's headlines are all still ahead. stay with us. audible safety beeping

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all right. the panel is back at the table. time to get caught up on some of the other headlines making news right now. let's start with the "chicago tribune," the first page out in the windy city. face to face with the voters. this is it judgment day. this coming tuesday. 48 hours now for rahm emanuel, the former chief of staff to president obama, congressman before that. he's the mayor of chicago. now he's been forced into a runoff by jesus garcia. there was talk at the start of the campaign emanuel was in danger of losing. but now the latest poll says emanuel is pulling away. it looks like he'll get re-elected. i know you were just in chicago. what's going on out there? >> i was told by "the new york times" this was a referendum on liberalism or everyone rising up against the emanuel style. there's only been one poll that showed a single digit lead. people are a bit dissatisfied. i don't know that chuy is the

guy to do it. interesting little note one of the contentious campaign issues is this george lucas museum that may be built on the lakefront. chuy is against it. >> the referendum on liberalism. vermont senator bernie sanders was out there on thursday to campaign with garcia so there have been national figures coming in trying to make an example of rahm emanuel. >> i think what's important about this is how things are changing. first of all, who was chuy garcia before this. no one has heard of him. the fact that he can poll what he's polling and doing as well obviously emanuel will win this race is reflective of the growing influence of hispanics, the changing demographics of chicago, beyond just the liberalism issue. i think that's the big story here. someone from an unknown and no one expected him to get this far

could do this well. >> we'll see what the final numbers are on tuesday. again, emanuel leading in the biggest polls pretty big. this from the "l.a. times." fund-raiser ends for pizzaria that won't cater gay weddings. raises $842,000. this is memories pizza, that pizza pizzaria out in indiana that said they would not be catering gay weddings. a go fund me page was started by a producer from glenn beck's news network, the blaze, that collected $842,000. so we say it's a culture war. this tapped into one side of the culture war. >> in this case you can take 29,000 voters to the bank but that's not going to make a big difference in any other area. 29,000 is still not a lot of people in a country of this size. it shows the power of the internet to be able to raise these small dollars. i think as we look at the campaign and look at jeb bush as

raising money the traditional ways i think the other candidates are going to be able to compete. billion dollar campaign is going to be multi billion dollar campaign. >> this is the grassroots here and we'll talk about this a little bit more about ted cruz trying to tap into that same grassroots so it shows you where their passions are. how about this from "the washington post of the" cadbury eggs versus peeps. americans are expected to spend $2.2 billion on easter candy this year. they will spend $16 on clothes, candy and all sorts of easter-related food. another $2.2 on candy, jelly beans and some on the table here. i don't like the peeps. anybody have a favorite? >> the big one is the cadbury controversy, isn't it because you can't get cadbury from britain. there's a hershey patent on the

name. and i guess the recipe is different and people look for the traditional british one. so i think this is a collector's piece. >> okay. cadbury eggs were always my favorite. >> i'm just glad they're not trafficking in live bunnies and chicks because that was really disaster for the bunnies and the chicks who would grow up and be abandoned, so at least this stuff goes away. >> on this network, they fed me peeps milk on one of your afternoon shows. >> what is peeps milk? >> it's supposed to taste like peeps. my rooeview, not as disgusting as you'd think. >> there's a ringing endorsement. somebody told me too they make an egg now that's filled with peanut butter. that would be my favorite easter candy. get my hands on that later maybe. let's see what else we have in the news. this is from "the times" of london. new york mayor eyes boris' job.

michael bloomberg is being urged to cross the electronicatlantic and become the mayor of london. he's considering doing this in 2016. however, bloomberg spokesman howard wolfson tweeted out a message that said run for mayor of london? flattered, but rule it out. mike bloomberg loves nyc too much to leave and too tough to succeed mayor of longd. well bloomberg is from boston he pulled off new york. it wouldn't be a big deal. >> i wouldn't be surprised at the end if he runs. but i would say to the torreys, be on the lookout. in 2017 he could be part of the labor party. >> he's back in the media now, i think he's probably happy with that. he came down here to new york

from boston and he was a yankees fan. i think he's secretly a red sox fan. >> maybe he can find a city closer to travel. >> can i say something about that pizza story. i will say i agree with eleanor, but this is -- this is a wedge issue. i think in many ways it will galvanize a lot of republican and conservative support on the religious freedom issue. and i think particularly for a number of presidential candidates like ted cruz they are going to hone in on this issue. >> hold that thought because we're going to be getting to that. remember this moment from 1999. >> well now the fact is i've always been a yankees fan. >> i thought you were a cubs fan. >> i am. i am a cubs fan, but i needed an american league team. >> see, it's not just bloomberg, it's hillary too. coming up why hillary clinton should love the yankees even more. and next how much really changes when you announce your presidential candidacy? if you're ted cruz it turns out a lot changes. keep it here. the pursuit of healthier. it begins

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in my experience grassroots plus money beats a whole lot more money just about any day of the week. >> texas senator ted cruz this week in iowa talking about the support he's seeing in that early contest state. right now it appears it's not just iowa that's taking notice of ted cruz, but the republican electorate at large. three polls this week showing a big swing toward the tea party fire brand. here's ted cruz's standing from a "washington post" poll back in december. it was 6%. put him in sixth place on the gop side. after his announcement on march 23rd support for cruz has doubled to 12%, putting him in third place in the republican field. democratic public policy polling firm also had cruz in sixth place in february but now more than triple 16%, bumping him up to third place, very close to the leader. that's the biggest number cruz has seen since the height of the

government 2013 shutdown. in a poll from fox news last week had him in ninth place. he's coming in fourth place and gaining momentum. so how serious of a swing is this? ted cruz certainly excites the base of his party, he has a big skpit con stituency there. ted cruz came up with an ad on the air calling it blessing. only $34,000, gets a lot of attention. this is the message in that ad. >> were it not for the transformative love of jesus christ, i would have been raised by a single mom without my father in the house. god's blessing has been on america from the very beginning of this nation.

>> so you get a little taste of what ted cruz is saying there. it surprised me. the announcement itself certainly got a lot of media attention, but i thought there might be more of a ceiling for cruz, even within the republican party, especially with all this other competition. it surprised me to see triple the support. >> is he running for minister? i think he does have a ceiling. the second part of your question to me is he benefitting from being the only declared candidate? he clearly is. everything that he offers i think somebody else offers a little better, right? the fire brand part of it. >> did anybody offer that better? the fire brand part seems to be what's resonating there. >> i think there are more plausible candidates that would appeal to the tea party. >> he's also out there with a lovely family and his wife has taken a leave from goldman sachs, forcing him to get obamacare for his health insurance, which he wants to pull out root and branch and yet he's saying he likes it. i think he got a lot of

publicity because it's a hungry press corps waiting for this event to begin. if he got the nomination, i would be amazed. he's going to be -- he's going -- he doesn't want anybody to get to the right of him and that gives you a small amount of a small amount and it's not a winning strategy. >> with he win the nomination? >> no he can't win the nomination, but he can get a little more than eleanor suggests within the republican primaries. look, what he had absolutely has had the benefit of having the spotlight because he's the only announced candidate. he's already made some controversial candidates. for example, he came out for the indiana law after pence was retreating on it himself so he was at odds with the people in indiana who were advancing the law that said it needed to be fixed. he came out an said that's the right law to do. what he's benefiting from is orthodoxy from within the republican party. you had a segment and began this program on an analysis of rand paul. where is he on rand paul

changing his views on foreign policy. he's not ron paul. what does he really believe. same thing as governor walker he's flip-flopped on a couple of things. so there's a base of voters in the republican party that are looking for true conservative unwavering, uncompromising ideology. >> and that's it. >> and that's what he is attracting. but there is a ceiling with with that. >> here's the interesting thing, though. look at the ted cruz strategy here. politico did a story looking inside what exactly ted cruz is trying to -- where he sees his path to victory. they identified evangelical christians. you look at that ad blessing that he's running. there's the article right there. look at what the numbers are that ted cruz is seeing that encourages this. take a look at this. this is from 2012. these are the exit poll numbers from the early republican primary and caucus days in 2012. the question is what percentage of the republican electorate is evangelical born-again christian. look at that in iowa nearly 60%.

in south carolina, basically two out of every three primary voters there. florida basically half. new hampshire the only one there that's not that big, but even there that's more than one in five. 50% overall. the caucuses and primaries that decided the nomination in 2012, 50% of the voters. >> so he's the mike huckabee or the rick santorum of this cycle but without the charm. he sdngt havedoes not have a friendly personality. maybe he hopes to come out with a fox talk show. >> the other senators hate him. maybe that's bad for the party. >> i'm not sure it's bad for the party. i think it's good to have diverse views of the party. those statistics show it you have a large number of people who share these views. they're welcome in the republican party. the question is getting them to understand that these are not individuals that can win the general election and that is the

trick. obviously this is the challenge that john mccain had, that mitt romney had and that jeb bush is going to have. the difference is jeb bush has already staked out in cpac positions that are consistent on immation common core and hasn't wavered and has still been steady and doing well. i don't think you're going to see jeb bush make the mistakes. two previous republican nominees. >> the question is can cruz fool or persuade enough voters in republican primaries to make them to believe that he could also win a general election that you can hold these views and that they will be popular. >> that's the thing, you think back to 2012. newt gingrich managed to win south carolina, not just win it he crushed mitt romney there. and look at newt gingrich and say with all of that baggage that guy brought to the table, it's hard to believe he was going to a general election and beat barack obama. in a key early primary state he was able to win it. >> sure but let me give a prediction on this program. jeb bush bill not win in iowa.

iowa will be won by governor walker or cruz whoever has the most charm. i wouldn't be surprised if cruz wouldn't win in iowa. >> but then south carolina becomes -- we just showed two out of every three voters in south carolina. that was the biggest evangelical number on the board. >> that's assuming that was just ted cruz. that vote is going to be shared by walker by rand paul who you described earlyier and then probably one centrist alternative. i don't think it will be governor christie and jeb bush. >> i don't think mitt romney won a single primary or caucus state. he limped through with sort of a plurality that made him look serious to get to the bigger states. >> there was a fault line with romney and i think the number was 50%. when that evangelical was above 20 50% in 2012 he didn't win and when it was below it he

wasn't losing. thanks to the panel for this morning. eleanor clift, mike pesca, appreciate you all being here. still ahead, who is the new york yankees of the 2016 lkts? you knew we would find a way to make opening day political. next my last night's historic final four upset was particularly special for wisconsin's frank kaminski. and then i saw him slowly coming down the aisle. one of those guys who just can't stop talking. i was downloading a movie. i was trying to download a movie. i have verizon. i don't. i get that little spinning wheel. download didn't finish. i finished the download. headphones on. and i'm safe. i didn't finish in time. so. many. stories. vo: join us and save without settling. verizon. sunday dinners at my house... it's a full day for me, and i love it. but when i started having back pain my sister had to come help.

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even the white house. >> the chances are high and putting kentucky in there. >> reporter: but nobody told wisconsin. the badgers shocked the wildcats with a 71-64 upset led by senior frank kaminski who celebrated his 22nd birthday with the biggest win of his life. >> we didn't change what we did. we didn't freak out. >> reporter: the win fired up fans back in madison and had folks setting fires in lexington. more than 30 arrests reported, and several people hospitalized. also in ashes, kentucky's hopes for basketball immortality, matching the 1976 indiana hoosiers, the last team to finish undefeated. >> i wasn't thinking 40-0 i was just trying to win the game and get on to another game. i would hope my team was that way, biut they're 18 and 19-year-olds. maybe they were. >> reporter: perfection is only a game away an undefeated

season still a rare feat. 25 years ago unlv made it to the semifinals with an unblemished record as well before being knocked off by duke who wisconsin will face monday night. everything was bouncing the blue devils way against michigan state. >> they have been so good in this tournament, the lights and the stage have not been too big for them. >> reporter: but it was wisconsin's night to shine and show us why it's called the big dance. >> my worthless pick for monday night, i'm picking wisconsin to beat duke. our thanks to nbc's craig melvin for that. up next, if hillary clinton were a baseball team which team would she be? we're combining our summer baseball preview with the presidential race. i'm heading over to the big board to get ready and explain it. stay with us.

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this field, this game it's

the part that i pass. >> it reminds us of all that was good. >> and what could be again. >> oh people will come, ray. people will most definitely come. >> so that was felix hernandez, dustin pe troya and adam jones reciting lines from the classic movie "field of dreams." major league baseball put out that because tonight is opening night. conveniently this is also right around now the start of the 2016 presidential cycle. ted cruz becoming the first to officially announce his candidacy two weeks ago, at least two more to follow in the coming days and weeks. rand paul this coming tuesday, for instance. for baseball this time of year is a fresh start, a new beginning full of hope. everyone is tied in the standings. can the same be said for the presidential field? we thought we would combine our love of the american pastime and love of american politics.

take a look at what the boys of summer and boys and girls of cam campaign stumping have in common. we were trying to say if this presidential candidate were a baseball team which baseball team would this presidential candidate me. let me take you through some of these. let's start with hillary clinton. who would she be? the new york yankees. the new york yankees are the biggest brand name out there. you think of baseball the first thing you think of is the yankees. you think of a presidential candidate, the first thing you think of is probably a clinton. also new york is her home state and a big war chest as well. the yankees with one of the top payrolls. certainly clinton will have one of the top war chests. we say she's the yankees. martin o'malley. we say he could run against hillary clinton in the democratic primary. he way he's the pittsburgh pirates. this is a lower tier market team. they don't have the kind of payroll the yankees have. they have to be scrappy, they have to be a lot sharper, smarter. they also play in a very tough

division. he'll certainly be in a tough division if he runs against hillary clinton. let's look at the republican side. ted cruz who would ted cruz be? he would be the kansas city royals. he's got the element of surprise on his side. they are a more -- moribund franchise and last year made it all the way to the world series. ted cruz has that wild card potential as well. who would jeb bush be? jeb bush would be the los angeles dodgers. why would jeb bush be the los angeles dodgers? because if hillary clinton is the new york yankees with the second biggest payroll in baseball right now, bush it looks like by all indications, he'll have the biggest war chest so the dodgers with the biggest payroll. we say that is jeb bush. the experts are picking the dodgers to win this year. chris christie who would he be? he'd be the new york mets. that is a team in a major market but they have been

underperforming of late and hurt by scandal. their payroll and ability to have a big payroll decimated by the bernie madoff story. rand paul would be the oakland athletics, the oakland a's. he always wins the straw polls they have at cpac for instance. the oakland a's had the best record in spring training. so it's impressive but does it mean anything? we're not sure so that's why he's the a's. ben carson he would be the aaa rochester red wings. he always does really well in these presidential polls but everybody still doesn't think he can win. it's sort of like a great minor league team. marco rubio, we say he would be the chicago cubs. the chicago cubs loaded with youth this year. marco rubio stressing youth, generational issues. and the cubs and the white sox sharing chicago and rubio has to share florida with jeb bush.

and sought walker would be the st. louis cardinals. anyway, thank you for playing along with us on that. enjoy the baseball season that kicks off tonight. enjoy the presidential season. thank you for getting up with us today. up next melissa harris-perry. stay tuned for that. we will see you next weekend. have a great weekend. happy easter to my family. why do we do it? why do we spend every waking moment, thinking about people? why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with a conscience? why innovate for a future without accidents? why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well equiped volvo xc60 today. visit your local volvo showroom for details. okay, listen up! i'm re-workin' the menu. mayo? corn dogs? you are so outta here! aah! [ female announcer ] the complete balanced nutrition of great-tasting ensure. 24 vitamins and minerals antioxidants and

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