estrogens may increase your chances of getting cancer of the uterus, strokes, blood clots or dementia so use it for the shortest time based on goals and risks. estrogen should not be used to prevent heart disease heart attack, stroke or dementia. ask your doctor about premarin vaginal cream. . jeb bush heads to liberty. good morning to you. thanks for getting up with us. it is a tense weekend in the part of the country known as tornado alley. storms are blowing through parts of texas, oklahoma with even more severe weather in the forecast out there. we'll have more on that ahead this morning. also can jeb bush overcome his problems with conservatives?

more on how he's trying to do that in just a minute. where can you find the rest of the gop field today? where can you find conservatives who are against mike huckabee? president obama marking a huge milestone in his presidency yesterday. details are coming up. is hillary setting a trap for republicans on immigration? did it work? we'll be taking a look at how her week is going. that is ahead in today's show. as well as as this tom brady's week with new reports that a punishment might be in the works from the nfl. what is ahead for the new england patriot quarterback, someone who disagrees with me on deflate gate will be here. we begin at a place that exerts an influence on on republican presidential politics. the placesis liberty university in lynchburg, virginia.

it was founded by reverend fall well. that group mobilizing millions of christians into republican politics for the first time. and pushing the republican party to the right in the years and decades that have followed. liberty university is a major institution within the republican world. 25 years ago it was jeb bush's father when he was president he delivered the commencement address at liberty university in 1990. more recently when ted cruz announced his president elrun he did it at liberty university. that was actually a major reversal for mccain, he had once called jerry fallwell an agent of intolerance. that was a comment that may have contributed to his defeat in the 2000 republican primaries. and today, it will be jeb bush

in lynchburg, virginia where he will give this year's commencement address. it it is a speech that comes at a precarious time for jeb bush. with fresh signs that conservatives may be revolting against him. and against him candidacy. more details on that in just a moment. we do want to go to msnbc's jane tim. she is on the ground in lynchburg. she'll be covering the address. i see the stadium is already filling up. what can we expect today from jeb bush? >> reporter: good morning, steve. today we're going to hear jeb really make his case to 35,000 evangelical christians. about 2,500 of them are the college seniors ready to start their professional career. there are 30,000 online students and families. those who will be looking carefully to jeb bush talking about the values he cares about

and shares with this crowd. he struggled with them as you said. he has some sort of prolife credentials i think he's hoping will impress these people. and the polling in iowa can show you what you know is haphung with the the conservative movement. how they're not looking at jeb too seriously. i think that we need to remember, this isn't a reaction to the poll numbers, this has been in the plans since december. the university told me that they reached out team jeb, to them in december 2014 and said you know i think the governor would like to do the commencement speech. how about that? that said yes. >> a lot going on there, thank you for that report. as jane eluded to as we mentioned at the top of the show. troubling new poll numbers for jeb bush when it comes to conservative voters. this week i want to take you through those for just a minute. let's start if we could put it up here in iowa. we got to slide over. i thought they were going to put

it up. this is the current horse race in iowa. seventh place. that's where jeb bush sits in iowa right now with 5% of the vote. you see scott walker out in front with 21. all those republican candidates between scott walker in first place and jeb bush all the way back at 5%. the brothers the son of a former republican president, all that money he's raising, just 5%. more troubling, this is in iowa you ask republicans do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of jeb bush look at that. more say unfavorable than favorable. that is a very bad place to be in the first of the nation's caucus states. it's why a lot people say he might want to skip or downplay iwiand focusing on the next state in line new hampshire. this is a new poll out just this week from the big tv station up there in new hampshire. it has jeb bush doing better in new hampshire.

he is leading, though with just 15% of the vote there. not exactly overpowering in terms of the number. he is faring better in new hampshire. the you can see a potential problem for jeb bush. you ask republican voters in new hampshire, you have a favorable, unfavorable view of these candidates. marco rubio, who is not in first place, but by a 44 point margin they have favorable view. rand paul 20 point margin. jeb bush's margin only 11 points. 45% in new hampshire saying favorable. 34% an unfavorable. even though new hampshire looks like more fertile ground there are a lot of problem signs in these numbers. there are a lot of suggestion,s in these numbers that he has a real problem with conservative voters. now in jeb bush's last trip to the granite state he loosened his belt so he could eat some

pie at an event. he promised new hampshire would be a frequent stop for him. >> hell with the diet. a lot of that depends on the decision process i have. my intention and hope is to be here. it's a great place to be. people are fun to be with. >> yes there's that decision process for jeb bush. he's not got his mind if he's running or not. should he give up on iowa? we have the national political reporter with "the washington post." and an nbc contributor and washington bureau chief and the communications director for republican senator tom colburn. and a managing editor at the site politics 365. robert costa in chicago, let me start with you, you look at the

numbers we put up in iowa i feel we have this debate with the supposed republican front runners every four years. should romney or mccain skip iowa? how does iowa factor in to jeb bush pfs plans for 2016? >> bush doesn't want to look like he's skipping iowa. he wants to come in the top three. this is his strategy when it comes to appearing like a place like liberty. he knows his real play is new hampshire. when it dmzcomes to iowa and south carolina, he still wants to be seen as a contender. his play is to be in the long run the nominee, someone who can play in a lot of places. >> when you talk to people -- in bush's world, but also in the republican world in general, is there any surprise that this is where he is five months into this? is there a thought we knew it would be a tough slug but we didn't think it would be this

tough. >> some of his closest allies are stunned he has not surged ahead. that was his move in december. let's put the rest of the field at bay. that hasn't happened. when you look at bush in the polls, he's in the top tier but static as a candidate. he's not generating energy on the campaign trail. that has bush people nervous. they think because of their money and their organizational advantage they can survive. >> that was getting a reaction from you. are surprised or not surprised? >> he reminds me of the mitt romney people being surprised and shocked that they lost. it seems going into this any smart political operative would have to realize that jeb bush had a tremendous amount of baggage. and that he was also out of step with the base of his party. and thus -- they should know after citizen's united even if they raised $100 million it

wouldn't matter. because every candidate as their own billionaire. marco rubio has a billionaire, ted cruz has a hedge fund guy from long island. it seems to me to indicate they're dimwits. >> what do you think of it? the resistance to bush on the right, where it comes from? >> it comes from his brother. president bush was seen by an overspending by the right. the tea party was in response to president bush's overspending. it's so early in the race right now, it's too soon to say he should drop out of iowa. the fundamentals of the race are strong for republicans. we have a -- bush isn't it a panic. republicans aren't in a panic. >> mitt romney you think going back -- hebush's challenge is here

is not inskepticism from the right, but the fact there are so many more options. >> i don't know that skipping iowa is that big of a deal. iowa hasn't proven to be the place that has picked the president too many times. you had to tie between santorum in 2012 and romney. why should he were r worry -- in a big money race where money is going to be taking. in 500 days will be talking iowa? probably not. i think him skipping iowa is not that big of a deal. >> there's only one reason he shouldn't speckkip iowa. that will kick off-evangelicals and will have a ripple effect in other states. and going into the general, they might, you know, create a narrative that he doesn't really care -- >> when he names his brother as his top advisor, that is something from a foreign policy right wing standpoint that might

help him. >> specifically on the question of israel he considers his closest advisor. let me ask you this when you look at the rest of the field right now, you see scott walker still out in front in iowa. in that polling, in new hampshire you see marco rubio with the best gap there between the favorable and the unfavrable number among republicans. who is best pictioned if jeb bush is going to be beaten who is best positioned to do it? >> scott walker had a big bump in january. we've seen that fade. jeb bush has flat lined in the polls. this is then rubio's moment. can he make the summer before the election his time to rise? make a generational contrast not only with clinton but with the rest of the republican field. because it's so crowded on the right, don't count out cruz and the others. >> it's so interesting. i look at those poll numbers i'm struck by jeb bush at 15% in new hampshire. i say that's low.

you start adding up the numbers of all the opponents. you say if they could condense that field against him. >> 85% of new hampshire voters don't want to vote for jeb bush. his number is low because it is a wide field. think about what's going to happen if we have a debate. up to 20 candidates on one stage. i don't know how they are going to do this. it's going to be really hard for all these candidates to work their way not just through the debates and the media and try to connect with people. i think everybody is going to have their moment. like herman cain had moments. >> they were talking about christie all that time and he's down. >> john mccain was written out in 2008 in september. >> look at santorum. he was -- >> not a factor at all. >> he was not a factor at all at this point. he barely announced he was going

to run and he wins iowa. >> before iowa was -- >> it shows you how much can change. you know the breadth of a field is a strength. we have so many qualifies candidates. >> i won't argue the point, but go ahead. >> and that's jeb bush's great strength is that he has a record that he can point to and say i ran and -- one governor and i implemented conservative policy. >> the thing i keep hearing is common core. the big issue to us the right, you weren't there for us. >> yeah. >> and immigration. >> immigration and common core are the two issues he has to overcome in the sense that he's part of the bush dynasty. if he can continue to talk about his record he can be a contender and he'll continue to be. robert costa is right. his goal is not to win iowa but to be in the top three. >> to that point, i mean you

say he's at liberty in lynchburg today. that line that jeb bush has to walk when he got into this race or said he was thinking about getting in the race he said you want to be willing to lose the primary to win the general election. he dizd not want to fall for traps that failed mitt romney in 2012. >> there is certainly discussion in bush world about change in the strategy. they're worried bush is making a compelling argument about how to win a general election against clinton. you got to run a general election strategy in the primary. at the donor retreat, i think there was concern that bush has to find a way to change or else he'll won't get the general election. >> we've been talking a lot about it in the show. this is a fascinating show. when you think of george h.t.

bush. jeb is in a completely world. thank you for joining us. still ahead as we continue this saturday morning, which oscar winning actress signed on to play ruth bader ginsberg. we are going to go to the heart of tornado alley coming up. hey! have an awesome vacation everyone! thank you so much! you're so sweet. yummy! key lime pie at 90 calories. it is so good for not giving in.

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a tense weekend of severe weather expected for the central part of the country. it's a large twister touching down in northern texas. reports that cars were overturned and buildings damaged. luckily no word that anyone was hurt. for more on the tornado watches in texas, oklahoma and else

where. msnbc news meteorologist dylan drier is live in norman oklahoma. >> reporter: we've been spending our time at the national weather center. the local forecasting office, issues the warnings that we tend to broadcast. those severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. while we were here yesterday. we had a severe thunderstorm pass through norman oklahoma just to the north of the building i was in we had baseball sized hail reported. some of the streets around this neighborhood were completely flooded to the point they had to be shut down. this area keep in mind has seen several inches of rain over the past few day and more rain is likely with these thunderstorms that are going to redevelop later on this afternoon and evening. there satornado threat especially through southwestern kansas and the pan handle of oklahoma. remember the storms have the

large damaging hail wind gusts up to 60 or 70 miles per hour lightning and potential for flooding rain. tlf are a lot of concerns when these storms fire up. later on today if you're not under a tornado warning, you need to be mindful of the severe thunderstorm warnings. these need to be taken seriously, because they could cause damage. >> that image is chilling to watch. my thanks to you in norman, oklahoma. up next as we continue this hour. >> i hear it's pretty good. someone told me the wine in oregon is top notch, right? i got some winemakers right here. >> president obama stumping in the pacific northwest for a lot more than a wine industry. we will explain.

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see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. critics about trade deals generally and the transpacific partnership. what's interesting is typically they're my friends coming from my party. and they're my fellow travellers on minimum wage and on job training on clean energy and on every progressive issue, they're right there with me. on this one, they are like whooping on me. on trade, i actually think some of my dearest friends are wrong. they're just wrong. >> as president obama yesterday making new friends at nike headquarters in oregon and criticizing his old friends.

democrats in the senate, quite a few republicans standing in the way of getting obama's transpacific partnership trade deal or tpp passed. it's not an accident the president chose to give his remarks at a company where nine out of ten products pr made in asia. it would open up places like vietnam and china to buying american products. joining the panel right now is jared burnstein an advisor to vice president joe biden. author of the new book the reconnection agenda reuniting growth and prosperity. let me ask you about do you see an evolution of president obama's thinking when it comes to trade? i'm thinking back to the democratic primaries in 2008 i'm thinking to the issue of nafta. candidate obama -- basically trashing nafta, that hasn't

happened in the last few years. now he's fighting his own party to get a free trade deals through. has something changed? >> i don't think so. i think it's not unusual for democratic presidents to fake left and go right on the trade issue. i think that he is coming from a very sort of traditional kind of centrist place here with the idea that more trade is better. by the way he does have some textbook support for that case. that problem is that these complex trade agreements, has 29 chapters. if you want free trade, it's simple. these are not the textbook deals he's thinking about. there are many complications some that boost free trade, some that are more -- >> where do you come down on the basic debate here? there was good news yesterday,

he's at nike and nike says if this transpacific partnership passes we'll add jobs here in the united states. that's good because they don't make shoes here anymore. to give you a sense of the scale, nike is employing a million people. 10,000 is a drop in the bucket. >> i think they employ about 26,000 people here domestically now. as you said a million overseas i would discount any of these job creation numbers. to be fair i'd discount some of the ideas on the other side that says if it passes it will destroy the economy. trade boosters always overpromise. i think the white house is doing that as well. look, at the end of the day, trade creates winners and losers. and people who oppose the deal typically in congress are those who represent lots of americans who have been hurt by not just

globalization, because globization is a powerful force for good here and abroad. the fact that the u.s. has consistently run very large trade deficits. one of the problems with the tpp, it does not have enforceable currency protections that could actually help us -- our manufacturers kind of compete on a more leveling playing field. nobody knows what is in the tpp. a currency chapter is not in there and that's a problem. >> let me bring the panel in on this. from your party's standpoint, for from the republican's standpoint, i noticed mcconnell who generally doesn't have anything kind to say about president obama, said he wants to give the president kudos. >> the problem the president has is the well worn path of bad

policies. the reason we've had recovery is what republican governors have done across the country. trade is one of the issues -- >> we'll let you get in in a second. >> trade brings both sides together. it creates winners and losers but more winners than losers. >> we've had stagnant wages since 1979. through reagan's years he had the recession there. >> it was pretty good after the reagan years. go back and look at the numbers. >> flat income for a long time. >> that is true. >> okay. it's not because of raising the minimum wage. and manufacturing jobs did not leave pittsburgh because of democratic policies. that aside, the interesting thing is you say trade brings republicans and democrats together. opposition to trade, or to trade deals like this not to trade,

to free trade, not fair trade, also bring republicans and democrats together. we saw that with nafta. we had pat buchanan nadir and unions. we have peoplelike mike huckabee -- >> that's a fascinating thing happieningyiening on the right. >> the hardest thing to sort out is promises. deals negotiated in secret. i can't believe anything that nike says. why would a free trade deal like this cause them to make more shoes here when they can make them in vietnam as well? why they haven't explain why. >> that is something the president has been i think, quietly -- maybe not so quietly been pushing for. there was a story a few years ago, he was talking to steve jobs trying to get some of the manufacturing back. jobs looked at him and said

those jobs are gone. >> exactly. the problem with this entire thing the president has never been able to articulate why this trade deal is good for the american workers. bernie sanders and elizabeth warren have been able to articulate why they're against it. at the time when the wealth gap is at its worse since 1928, people don't want to hear about how it makes us competitive with china. they want to know why the deal helps us here in the united states. until yesterday, he's never articulated that. he just said everybody is wrong. no specifics. that's a problem. >> that basic question and that line from steve jobs those jobs are gone. is that right, are they just gone and we should stop thinking about them? >> actually i don't know that that's necessarily right. it is true in every advanced economy the share of employment that's in manufacturing is going down. that's a natural evolution. but i think what's really hurt us in terms of our manufacturers

is that we've had really large trade deficits for 30 years. that means that we've bought a lot more from them than we've been able to sell to other countries. one of the reasons is because lots of the other countries with whom we trade they manage their currency so their exports are subsidized and our exports to them are taxed. many of us who don't have a big position on the tpp has said we're not wrong about this. i didn't like the president getting in everybody's grill saying you're wrong. we know we're right about this on the economics. this problem of currency management has hurt us. here's a big trade bill as the panel said these trade deficits have hurt us. why not put measures in here that would help american exporters compete on a level playing field. the fact that's not in the deal that is praboblematic. i don't like to hear the

president to be so dismissive of that point. >> jared burnstein i appreciate you taking the time this morning. and on the way back east from oregon yesterday, president obama stopping in south dakota where he delivered the commencement address for a community college. the event quietly representing a milestone, not just for a graduates but also for the president himself. >> i have been to all 50 states as president and i was saving the best for last. [ applause ] to the other 49 i hope you take no offense. >> and with that president obama is now the fourth american president to have visited all 50 states while in office. as we go to break right here with much more ahead this hour we thought we would mark that milestone by showing some of the amazing pictures that official

white house photographer has taken over the past six and a half years traveling with the president to some of those other 49 states. stay with us. right now, verizon is offering unlimited talk. and text. plus 10 gigs of shareable data. yeah, 10 gigantic gigs. for $80 a month. and $15 per line. more data than ever. for more of what you want. on the network that's #1 in speed. call. data. and reliability. so you never have to settle. $80 a month. for 10 gigs. and $15 per line. stop by or visit us online. and save without settling. only on verizon.

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>> five throws. trying to get open. fires away. it's over. the bulls win at the buzzer. >> derrick rose i said game two, that was game three. it gives them a 2-1 lead over the cavaliers. i did kind of predict this one here. i also said the spurs would win the western conference. maybe i'll go one for two. the cavs are in serious trouble in that series. 26 footer and he called glass. what else do we have? deadline hollywood. parker sawyers to play young barack obama in i am global's southside with you. this is a romantic dramedy.

it's about mitttheir first date in 1989. i didn't knothere was going to be an oliver stone film. i hope it's better than that one about bush a few years ago. he said had -- born on the fourth of july was a good one. we have another movie headline from msnbc, natalie portman cast to play ruth bader ginsberg. she will star the supreme court justice. it is about her early career fighting for equal rights for women. the film is slated to begin filming at the end of the year. >> i hope they get joe peci to play justice scalia. >> i want to see the obama bromance movie. >> you could probably -- this is a former tom colburn guy. >> other than obama biden road

trip comedy movie. >> now the clintons are back we got to get a clinton movie going here. phil heartartman had that great clinton impersonation. still ahead, hillary clinton's bold statements on immigration reform were they about policy or political strategy? a cold war tradition making a return in moscow this morning. take a look at the video. details are next. wow. sweet new subaru, huh mitch? yep.

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there were also a few european leaders who were in attendance, perhaps a sign of russia's strained strained relationship with its neighborhoods neighbors. victory day is the country's most important secular holiday. still aheld, will mike huckabee's appeal to the populists cost him with conservatives. >> the action by the president yesterday will only encourage more people to come here illegally and putting their lives at risk. >> that is how republicans reacted to the president obama's executive action. how will they react to hillary clinton taking a bolder stance in? eathing air can be difficult. if you have copd, ask your doctor about once-daily anoro ellipta.

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i will fight to stop partisan attacks on the executive actions that would put

dreamers, including those with us today, at risk of deportation. and if congress continues to refuse to act, as president i would do everything possible under the law to go even further. >> hillary clinton calling for a path to full and equal citizenship for the so-called dreamers on tuesday. promising to not only going further than president obama has on undocumented immigrants. was she also trying to bait the republican presidential field into responding? after all this is an issue where democrats believe they have a clear advantage over republicans. they think that mitt romney really hurt himself by running hard to the right on immigration during the 2012 primaries. democrats would love for the next gop candidate to do the same. here is what some of those republican candidates had to say about what hillary had to say this week. scott walker calling clinton's plan unfair to hardworking americans. ted cruz righting on facebook that hillary clinton's declared

proamnesty platform confirms she indeed is running for obama's third term. marco rubio and jeb bush though notably stayed silent this week. i'll bring the panel in now and talk about the politics here that clinton is trying to set up. if we advance her into the general election she has to survive on the democratic side. assuming she does and she's looking ahead here you hear this from democrats and republicans all the time. they think of mitt romney in 2012. he's in the debates and trying to shore up his credentials on the right. he talks about self-deportation. it seems to me hillary thinks there's an opportunity to get that same kind of race going on this time. >> it's a high risk strategy for hillary clinton. i think she is setting a transport for herselftrap for herself. she is going beyond what president obama did. and i think you're right. democrats tend to have an advantage because republicans

have not found a clear voice on it. what's different about this year is we have several candidates who have a great message of immigration. i think rubio does bush -- >> rubio -- four great messages they keep changing their views. >> bush, it seems to me that bush has pretty consistently maintained his posture on immigration. he's taken heat. he said i disagree with you guys. rubio has backtracked on this. >> i think he has a message but he has a personal narrative and a story. i think in a campaign people will listen to his story more than they'll listen to his policy positions. >> i don't think -- >> that will give him the opportunity to clarify what he will do as president. >> the power -- ted cruz with the cuban background marco rubio -- >> it allows people who don't want to help the dreamers and the rest to feel good about

voting for somebody who won't do that. but the people that the republican party has said it needs to bring in will not move just because ted cruz's dad came here from cuba before the revolution. we've had this going on for a couple years now, and you've had the latino community here. i think we need to be mindful of what obama is doing, what republican candidates are saying, those of them who vote and i don't think rubio is going to be able to skate by this by just pointing to his own personal background. >> what do you think of that? that is a personal narrative is a big part of marco rubio's candidacy talking about his parents coming to this country really with nothing. only in america could i a child of parents of such modest background rise to this level. does that help the numbers to get into this 70% basically that's the% that democrats got with latinos in 2012.

republicans have to erode that. >> i think the narrative that he has personally is running counter to what he believes policy wise. he used to have a centrist position. marco rubio is floating out there because he can't decide what his policy is. which is hillary clinton would -- by doing this is going after the hispanic block of voters. she's deciding very emphatically the hispanic block is more important than centrist voters which is very interesting. at sh point she will have to describe like criminal justice with the 1994 clinton crime bill her husband's 1996 immigration bill that basically pushed more arrests of immigrants. at some point that come up if he has somebody to debate with that will bring it up. >> the difference between where the democrats were in the 90s and where they are now we'll

talk about that in a minute. you say hillary clinton has overreached. she wants her republican opponent in 2016 to be looking at the people who have been affected by the president's actions right now. people, a 23-year-old who was brought to this country years ago, was not that person's decision, has been a student in good standing all these things. hillary wants her republican opponent to have to say in a debate yeah, i want to undoop the protections that president obama put in place for that person. are the republicans going to be forced in that trap? >> i don't think they will be. i think what hillary clinton is unifying republicans. i think she's staked out a position that has gone beyond what president obama did. i think republicans will rally around a clear policy. >> how do the republicans -- whatever hillary does, how do they come to terms with coming up with a unified policy when you have people like jeb bush who would like some immigration

reform with a path to citizenship and we have people like ted cruz and others who are out there saying over our dead bodies. there is really a tremendous gap between the probusiness community and the republican party and the tea party crowd. which doesn't want any form of pathway to citizenship. >> that's not the case. the division between the republican party is vastly overstated on immigration. so an issue like border security we have a 3% apprehension rate over the border. so for a lot of conservatives, the notion that we would even consider border security is a -- >> i want to get this in, too. this was in the wall street journal, saying the whole debate over immigration is based on the premise that is caught in a time warp. the premise of the debate that waves of hispanic immigrants are

sweeping across our borders and swelling the nation's population and transforming the economy is caught in a time warp. and largely missing the immigration issues that matter today. what he's saying if you look at this, it is now the flow of immigrants in this country is not coming from mexico it's coming from china and india. the most recent data shows mexico number three. basically saying we've been having this debate for so long in this country and the basic premise is outdated. >> it's a cultural debate. a lot of people in the tea party and republicans don't like the idea of legal immigration or undocumented workers coming in here. a lot of them talk about what's happened to the country. i think that's code term for saying we don't want many latinos here. i think that is a true divide within the republican party. people like jeb bush don't don't see a problem with that. look at his family. other people in the base of the party do. that's why this is going to continue to drive the debate.

>> these members go home and they hear their constituents talk about this all the time. >> i think the bigger problem is we haven't had a real recovery. we haven't had wage growth. people talk about immigration in that context. and so we need to have a progrowth smart immigration policy that secures the border that creates jobs. and that lets people in to the country and goes back to a reagan model of talking about it. which was walls with doors. >> but still you got to come up with an issue of what do you do of people who are here. and the republicans can't -- >> that's what the hillary people are thinking. you go into 2016 you want that republican opponent saying yeah, those protections i'm going to undo them. they want to corner them on that. we have talked about hillary clinton's ambitious immigration plan. another first from hillary this week that separated her from every democrat that made a run for president. another full hour of news and

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what's at the top of hillary's to do list? and thanks for staying with us as we continue this saturday morning. we will have more on that severe weather threat facing the central part of the country this weekend. just a few minutes from now. if hillary clinton's plans for this week unfolded the way we think she meant them to she's had a successful week. we'll explain that in just a minute. what is chris christie up to at the end of the a busy week in new hampshire? why isn't he joining the rest of the field in what they all seem to be doing together. we'll look at the secret to mike huckabee's success with conservative primary voters. why that doesn't mean he's

popular among all of the right. taking a piece of history with you when you leave. an aspect of visiting the white house that doesn't always bring out the best in people. there are new reports this morning of a possible suspension for patriots' quarterback tom brady. stick around to hear about that. we begin this hour with what we imagine hillary clinton's to do list could have looked like. with big ticket items regarding her bid for the presidential nomination. first on the list shoring up democratic support. there's been cautious skepticism about her candidacy so far. with no strong democratic challengers to push her on the issues would she be advocating for the progressive wing of the party. two articles from "the new york times" indicating skepticism is

starting to wasn't. she will catch up with the steady migration of many democratic primary voters to the left wing. they're optimistic the issues she has spoken out before immigration and same sex marriage will help her with swing voters. for now, let's give clinton a check mark for shoring up democratic support this week. next on our check list, not alien alienating the elucterate. what do we mean? trying to contain potential damage from the flurry of stories about clinton foundation fund raising that's been making headlines. not to mention the state department e-mail scandal. new polls from nbc news and the wall street journal and "new york times," they show a mixed bag. there's a slight increase in negative opinion of clinton in the nbc wall street journal poll. overall her support slightly falling in that poll. "the new york times" cbs poll shows her favorability rating

jumps nine points from the last poll with her unfavorables holding study. both polls landing in roughly the same spot. at least for now she's not alien alienating. finally, keeping up with the republican field. hillary clinton taking a large leap this week as the first democratic presidential candidate of the superpac era to embrace unlimited and untraceable campaign funding. she's going to be appearing at superpac fund raisers personally. this is something that barack obama wouldn't even do in 2012. jeb bush is the one who set the tone early in the season with reports that even the running of his campaign may be out sourced to his superpac. a large part of the republican field relying on their superpacs. hillary clinton jumps on the superpac train helping her

position in the big money game. that is a check mark for her. it does come with a catch. this is the same hillary clinton, the one who is fully fully embracing money. >> we need to fix our dysfunctional political system and get unaccountable money out of it once and for all. even if that takes a constitutional amendment. >> is this a super pac flip-flop for hillary? or do you first have to get the system to change to win if you want to change the system. back with us to talk about it is our panel. john hart. and lauren victoria burke. let me start with you. is this a flip-flop for hillary clinton? is that the way i understand it. hey y want to get rid of it.

by the way, i'm going to a super pac fund raisers. >> i don't know what it is. this is going to be such a big money race. you'd be crazy to not have a super pac and not want more big money. to change this thing structurally will take probably obviously, legislation or the supreme court or something. i don't know what -- where that came from. >> i guess the case would be it takes the supreme court potentially if you want to get your people on the supreme court you got to win theelection. if you want to win the election you got to get the money. >> what's happened after citizens united in particular is the pendulum has swung so far to the advantage of big money players. particularly, billionaires who can just come in on their own and give unlimited amounts of super pacs or even worse, unlimited amounts of dark money, which is not traceable. or discloseable to 501 c 4. some of which is formed by the

super pacs. you have the koch brothers saying they'll put billion dollars in dark money groups. that environment, you know, the should you disarm unilaterally and not participate because if there's going to throw billion dollars at hillary clinton to drive down those positives and up those negatives that you just showed, can she sort of just say i'm going to stick around to raising $2,700 a pop for my own campaign and leave those hundreds of millions of dollars off the table, why jeb bush walker rubio, whoever else is pocketing this. it's a dilemma. >> we've been hearing for years, decades, generations, there's too much money in politics. the sums are astronomical. >> those were the good old days. >> this was a headlines a couple days ago. basically throwing up her hands

and saying there's nothing i can do. really about 2016 election abuses. also a democratic member of the fec commission was on rachel maddow's show. let's listen to what she had to say. >> my concern is we're seeing a race to the bottom. because the candidates are out there and the super pac and the outside spending groups that are less transparent than the super pacs are out there watching. they're seeing that the law is not being enforced. they're seeing we have the lowest penalty total last year of any year since 1985. despite the fact that the money is being raised is going up and up and up. they are tempted. >> what do you think of this? we saw this in the 2012 primaries, that was the revelation was rick santorum could stay up. newt gring rich got money. it was a brand new things in politics. >> i think it's the biggest non-issue in politics.

the issue is hillary clinton's hypocrisy and the problem is not unaccountable money, unaccountable government. the darkest spending is what the government is doing with the money. >> you get to vote on it. >> it's not transparent at all. >> shouldn't the connection be there for everyone to see, in terms of here's the vote here's the yeses, the noes and here's where everybody got their money from? >> yeah. let people decide. let the voters -- >> that's not how the system works. >> when you think about how much money we spend in politics, it's a tiny fraction what we spend on video games. we spend ten times as much on x box games than on politics. it's a big sort of frenzy over not anything in particular. >> i do wonder though if there is a point there about the responsibility ultimately of average citizens of every day citizens, this is their

democracy, this is our democracy. at a certain point the information is out there. if you want to find out what the koch brothers are up to you can find out. >> to a certain degree. >> if you want to find out somebody on the left has pocketed money. >> it's dark money if it's on the right and bright money if it's on the left. as long as government wants to be involved in our lives, there will be money on politics. it's a fool's errand if you want to reduce the influence of money in politics reduce the influence of government and our money. >> or reduce the power of money in politics. we know there's a connection between corporate activity and what politicians do and what they focus on. there's no doubt about that. whether or not people care about it in a campaign. everybody is getting money. the point is in our politics obviously, there is a huge

effect on corporate dollars. no doubt about that. >> the koch brothers have a strong agenda. they are opposed to climate change. a lot of their money is not transparent. then you have people get the money, making generationally important decisions. you don't know who is supporting them and whether they're doing it for the right or wrong reasons. >> we can make -- point out all of the problems with this but do those problems exist? are people able to get away with this because voters ultimately on some level are okay with it. when you take a poll and ask campaign finance reform it's not an issue that resonates with people. >> campaign finance reform. money pin politics in terms of the issues and the way they're affected would get a different result. >> if you ask people do you think billionaires should give money in secret to get their own people elected to office it might be different. 60 or 70 on that one.

>> the issue of crony capitalism is a big deal. conservatives have found their voice on crony capitalism. the quick aside on the ethanol tax credit. people talk about the koch brothers all the time. we helped get rid of the ethanol tax credit that helped the koch business. they helped us. they didn't do anything to stop us. oftentimes, quote billionaires want to see a free and fair market. >> some do. exxon want a tax code. why are items vanishing from the white house? we'll go live to the south carolina freedom summit. not all potential candidates who are there. will we tell you who is skipping that event on the other side of this break. but first, we have a very special guest.

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if you want to find a republican presidential contender this week all you have to do is look to south carolina. a majority of that crowded field, ten potential candidates and already declared candidates going to be speaking today in it greenville, south carolina. for something called a south carolina freedom summit. as we already mentioned this morning, jeb bush is not going to be there. he's heading to virginia today to give the commencement speech at jerry fallwell's liberty university. and chris christie has been struggling with evangelical conservative voters is taking a different approach by not crossing the mason dixon line at all. he is skipping it this weekend. still finding the time to

crisscross the state of new hampshire this week. after a full week of covering chris christie in the granite state, kasie hunt joins us live from the palmetto state at the site of today's event in greenville. thanks for taking a few minutes. let me start on christie. there was an interesting exchange we want to play at new hampshire. a woman asked him about bridge gate. he responded. let's play that question and response. >> people with whom you work very closely somehow got the idea that that was okay. and i'm worried about having a president who has people around him who think that that's okay. i feel like the people at ft. lee was the sacrificeal lambs. it reminds me of feudal times when the king would say who cares about the peasants. >> all i can tell you is this when you're a leader you're going to hire lots of different people. and you're going to make the

best judgments you possibly can. but you're never going to be able to guarantee people that no mistakes will be made. i have previously said i was sorry for what happened. because it happened on my watch and i have to be accountable for t. being accountable and being responsible are two different things. i am accountable because i'm the accountable officer of that government but i had nothing to do with it. >> new hampshire is sort of the ball game for chris christie. the iowa looks rough for him, south carolina looks rough. you're with him in new hampshire this week, what was the response from republicans up there? >> well, steve, i think that what you saw at that town hall is the risk of the new hampshire strategy. new hampshire voters are notoriously well-engaged with this process. christie has said the banners at the town halls say i'll tell it like it is. there you had the risky situation of a woman standing up and confronting him about this.

it's something he tried to avoid during his other stops. i asked him about it he was pretty dismissive of the question. i think shat the woman who is standing in that audience raised exactly the question and you know, i think his answer shows that it's very difficult to distinguish between account accountability and responsibility. this is not the first time he's been -- bridge gate has confronted him in new hampshire. if it in fact fades from the headlines, it might be one thing. if these indicted staff members of his are still in the courts as this is going on if his rivals starts to make an issue out of this it will be hard for christie to get away from it. >> i have to apologize, first my timing was exquisite. i went to you as they were in the middle of the national anthem. put your hand on your heart the

next time. that's my fault. we'll move on to the next question about south carolina. that's where you are today. one thing in the news in the last couple days is lindsey graham the senator from south carolina saying he's 98.6 likely. i don't know if the body temperature has something to do with it. he's 98.6% likely to run for president. we think of south carolina as a key early test. if lindsey graham runs will that render the south carolina primary a lot less important? >> well i think first of all there is frustration among establishment republicans here in south carolina about a potential lindsey graham run only for that reason that you just described. i mean essentially they're worried he could in fact make what is a profitable industry for them less profitable because he'll make it matter less. i actually think that you know

lindsey graham there is a significant number of republicans in this state who don't necessarily love lindsey graham. you saw that in the primary he faced. he did a very very good job of clearing the field of potential tea party challengers who were credible. that wasn't to say he didn't have a whole bunch of challengers and he didn't actually lose a significant portion of the vote in that election, because he did. i think that that shows you how much interest there could be in the south carolina electorate for somebody who's not like lindsey graham. the real test is how has the state moved away from cementing a presidential candidate. they did it every single year since reagan. there is a lot of opportunity here for anyone of these more conservative candidates to assuming they perform strongly in iowa come here and

potentially have a breakout moment. i think that's a possibility regardless of whether or not nsa graham is in the race. >> newt gingrich in 2012 we'll look back in history and somebody will see that. is that a typo he won by 15 points in south carolina? it's interesting what she's saying. the concerns of republicans in south carolina that lindsey graham could have on their status. >> i saw him the other day and he indicated to me he was running. i don't know if that's true. never the less that's what he's saying. she's right a lot of i think, south carolina republicans want the candidates coming in. they do make a lot of money in all sorts of ways. i think lindsey graham will not be that strong a favorite son. there will be three to five if not 17 republicans will make that calculation and decide to take him on.

>> that ends up being the risk. what ended up getting rick santorum out of the presidential race in 2012 was pennsylvania. he looked at his home state and he said i can't afford from a reputation standpoint what it would look like if i went to my home state and lose. i want to see some more polling out -- >> lindsey graham will scare too many people. >> i talked to him about immigration. he sounded pretty moderate on me. he said hillary clinton wasn't involved when he was on the senate. he could actually lose south carolina. in a race that has ted cruz in it. >> katie hunt in >> kasie hunt thank you for the rousing rendition of national an them. what about chris christie? we talked him a little bit, why does he appear to be laying low?

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i'd like to think the u.s. government would stand up for the u.s. workers rather than let them take it in the backside. that's not free trade. >> mike huckabee making it clear where he stands on the trade bill debate in his first official day tuesday as a candidate for the 2016 republican nomination. opinions like that making the former arkansas governor unpopular among some of his fellow conservatives, including the anti-tax group which greeted his running into the race with this ad. >> ready for huckabee? >> but it's not as if everyone on the far right is against mike huckabee. after all, the last time he ran for president, he ended up winning the iowa caucuses. maybe that's the secret to his

appeal among republican primary voters. how he brandished a message that is conservative and economically populist. al the former arkansas governor understands something important about gop voters. they aren't opposed to welfare responding as long as it's for them. >> if congress wants to take away someone's retirement let them end their own congressional pensions not your social security. >> and john i'll start with you on the right here, that line from that huckabee's announcement speech jumped out at me. i think about the debates we're used to having. democrats railing against that. i'm listening to mike huckabee saying don't mess with my social security. >> i think what's surprising is mike huckabee has gone mother jones on the rest of the candidates. >> what does he see --

>> it's fascinating. what he's trying to do is appeal to the populist angst about what's going to happen with retirement security. but his prescription is 100% wrong. because for example social security disability will be bankrupt in the year. the worst thing we can do is not fix the problem. when he goes out and does the mother jones routine, he -- all of the entire conservative policy community, it is -- >> there is a divide between the policy community that you're talking about and where sort of demographically the republican base has moved. >> what it shows the policy community needs to be a much better job of talking about solutions that are proactivement that's what -- >> they have. if you look at what they want to do on medicare. probably, the --

>> what does obama want to do with medicare? >> the greater degree of recipients of medicare are republican than democrat because of the age thing. so they're out there talking about priveatizing medicare and putting you at the whims of the mercies of insurance companies. anyone who deals with them probably doesn't want to be doing that when you're 80 years old and figure out what's the best plan. there is a big gap between the policymakers and the base. most americans -- the interesting thing with what huckabee is doing, you know he's competing for social conservative votes with who? rick santorum presuming he gets in and to some degree ted cruz. the here you see huckabee and santorum with similar straejz. >> santorum has wanted to increase -- ben carson said he supports raising the minimum wage. i want to play this.

i found this yesterday. i think this -- we see the changing nature of the republican base. it's graying a little bit. here's an example. this is a conservative radio host in boston big audience in new hampshire. he's 62 or 63. he had chris christie on his show. chris christie is promoting this means testing plan for social security. this is the exchange that ensued. >> i'm going to get a union pension. a union pension. governor and you want to take -- you say that i make -- i'm going to be making too much in retirement? >> no i didn't. >> i have to give up my social security. >> i didn't say that unless you will make on that union mention over $200,000 a year. then, yes, i say you do have to. >> it went on like that for 15 minutes. i wonder if there's something going on there, the base of the republican party that we're not quite seeing yet. >> the reason it went on for 15 minutes is christie could not explain in detail what his idea

was to save social security. so when people talk about voucher programs and priveatization, that's very nice. the fact of the matter is the club for growth does not have a plan for what they would do with social security. obviously, this is great issue to say, hey -- which is what huckabee is saying everybody paid into this you should get your money back and you should get that benefit back. it was a promise that the government made to you. obviously, older voters vote. this is a -- everybody has to roll tape on the thing in the 1990's when he made the mistake -- i think you can't play with this issue unless you have answers. repeating over again what would barack obama do doesn't work. you have to have your own specific ideas and answers at a town hall when an older person gets up and says what are you going to do with my social security. >> for the longest time the older demographic was the generation that -- the depression generation.

and they were much more loyal to the democratic party. and now the 65 pluses are increasingly loyal to the republican party. and they're on medicare and social security. >> the tea party support is saying keep the government out of my medicare. wait a second you may not be understanding how medicare works. medicare is a tremendously successful government program that private sector and free markets did not produce. and was created because old people were dying and living in illness because they couldn't afford what the private sector had to offer. so it's a tremendous success story. and it's -- the beneficiaries, as i said tend to be more republicans. if chris christie or republicans want to start attacking that they do so at their own political peril. >> does huckabee have a lot of room to run? like david is saying there

aren't a lot of republicans out there saying that. >> i don't think he's going to connect with it ultimately. what he's doing is sounding just like hillary clinton or barack obama or other people on the left. when they're criticize republicans. paul ryan has been an innovative leader on this. there are many ways to fix social security medicare medicaid. the reality is none of these programs will exist. we could all agree just as people that they should exist in some form. but they're unsustainable. we have to find a way to fix them. >> that's scare tactics. social security will exist for decades and decades. >> there's no money from the social security trust fund. >> let's get jared burnstein back in here. there is a simultaneously push on the left to expand social security. that's a whole other topic. ahead, i will go head to

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how much protein does your dog food have? 18%? 20? introducing nutrient-dense purina one true instinct with real salmon and tuna and 30% protein. support your active dog's whole body health with purina one. there is a lot going on this morning. let's get caught up on some of the headlines making news with our panel. let's start in the washington post. all the things people steal when they visit the white house. these are guests who go to official white house functions or just happy to be in the white house for whatever reason. what do they steal most often? towels with the presidential seal. place card holders, small silver spoons -- these are the most frequently stolen things. on air force one everything from glasses -- a search on ebay turns up steep prices for

presidential china taken from the white house. anybody steal from the white house? >> i have a confession to make. i mean i thought about it when i was in the white house. one time i did go to the kennedy center with a friend who worked at the white house many years ago. we sat in the presidential box. and i did take home a little miniature flute of cham pain with the presidential seal on it. >> do you have it? >> i haven't popped it yet. >> put it on ebay it sounds like. >> maybe that's a year of college for one of my kids. >> what would you do if you're in that position? would you be tempted to take something? >> definitely. absolutely. al. >> a towel or something? >> absolutely. >> it's the people's house. we paid for t right? >> exactly. i paid for that bar of soap. another headline here from the huffington post. starbucks will stop bottling water in california. the governor out there requiring

residents to cut their water usage by 35%. starbucks will transfer production of its bottled water to pennsylvania. recent study showing california is having the worse drought in 1200 years. here is a business that's leaving california because of it. it's a rough time there. a final headline. this is from quartz. whole foods will be opening a lower priced grocery chain targeting younger shoppers. do you think whole foods, expensive -- >> i'm going to go there. why younger people? i see my bills from whole foods i'm heading straight there. >> you don't have to be young. >> do they check your id at the door? card you? >> low priced grass fed beef. is that what they have inarugulaarugula.

i had funs hanging out with new england patriots fans thirds thursday. >> i think it's the ball guys trying to get back at him. >> we believe everything. he's awesome. >> he's given us 15 years of awesomeness. so i think we should support him. got to love their loyalty. coming up i'll face up with msnbc's very own toure on the football story that has gripped the nation. and there might be a possible suspension in the works for tom brady.

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with purina one. what is your reaction tom? to the ted well's report? >> it's only been 30 hours. i haven't had much time to digest it fully. when i do i'll be sure to let you know how i feel about it.

and everybody else. >> are you that slow a reader? >> well my athletic career was better than my academic career. i'm used to reading x's and o's this was longer. >> that was tom brady side stepping questions on thursday night about the nfl's investigation into deflate gate. a 243 page document that concluded, quote, it was more probable than not that new england patriots' personnel participated in violations of the playing rules. also that quarterback tom brady probably, quote, was at least jernally aware of the inappropriate activities of the patriots' personnel. who it is alleged deflated the footballs that were used by the patriots in their game against the colts. something that could make the footballs easier to grip. in response to that report tom brady's agent was defiant saying it may be more probable than nat that the league cooperated with

the colts in perp at any rateetrating a sting operation. there is reports that nfl commissioner is planning to suspect brady. this according to conversations the new york daily news has had with cue sources who they say know what's going on inside the world of nfl headquarters. sources fear a suspension for brady could be in the range of six to eight games. miami herald reporting nfl sources told them the suspension could be as long as the entire season. that might not be the punishment says the source if there is a punishment. quote, everything is being considered. another factor is what effect the scandal might have on brady's legacy. personally i don't think it's that big a deal. i'm a patriots' fan. you would expect me to say that. let's make it more interesting and bring in someone who isn't a patriots' fan. for that we turn to msnbc's own

and massachusetts native -- we will have to discuss how that could happen. toure joins us now. the reports are out there, you're going to get your way, it sounds like. they said -- >> it's not my way. >> it's justice, steve. they monkeyed with the balls. that is going to the core of the game. that's like, moving in the lines or something. like -- it seems different than what the celtics used to do. al they used to have the parquet and the garden. that was real. have you talked -- >> there were dead spots. >> yeah, but that was both teams. our balls that we play with our going to be softer per tom's liking. i mean this is ridiculous. >> okay. i take it from the rest of the panel -- let me ask the rest of the people before they jump on me. does anybody here think -- i'm not going to sit here and say he's framed.

i'm going to say, yes they were doing this. they were taking some of the air out of the balls. fine, i don't think it's that big a deal. >> why couldn't -- >> it's always a cover up. >> exactly. why couldn't he have just said look i've been to six super bowls, i like the ball with a little less air in it. i'll probably go to another super bowl. this is what i do. it didn't change the game. he's not going to say this -- i'm going to be one of the greatest quarterbacks of all times times. why can't he say -- >> tom brady can't admit he cheated. >> he can't admit he cheated. he doesn't want to -- >> he could have said something like i do prefer it to be on the lower end. >> right. >> he won't say it now. he could have said i asked them to keep it on the lower end of the legal limit. if that was misunderstood -- >> right. >> you're saying he should have lived? >> here's my -- here's my bigger

point. >> incolts saying before the game. the patriots like the balls to be underinflated. this is epidemic. >> i don't think that even the fact that they're doing this is that big of a deal competitively. if that's true if the colts knew, if everybody knew if it's years long. every single play in every single game the ball is handled by the referee. if they've been doing this life altering thing for the football for years, the ref is -- >> the fumble rate which is statistically improbable suggests that it's having an impact on the game. >> right. >> but you're desperate -- i made a list jand i want to get to it. whenni say when i say it's not a big deal. when we call it cheating we think of it as gamesmanship.

>> can't wait till you talk to your kids. >> is this cheating or gamesmanship? i went to see if pressure out of the ball. >> a little? it's not a little though. it's a lot. >> number one. steal issing signs in baseball. is that cheating or gamesmanship? >> no. but are we talk building a runner who is on second base seeing the catcher? or putting a guy in the outfield with binoculars right? fundamentally different. >> one is gamesmanship and one is cheating. >> yes. if you put a guy with binoculars, you can't do that. that's cheating. >> trapping the ball. let me explain this. you're a receiver, the ball is coming in the receiver puts his body over it. and he gets up and tells the ref i made the catch.

is that cheating or -- this is an apples to orange comparison perhaps apples to spaceships. >> is that cheating or gamesmanship? >> corking bats is acceptable. >> if you do something that an umpire or ref doesn't see on the field and you don't report that because it's to your disadvantage is, that's not cheating. >> here's the best one. in hockey there are specific rules about how much the stick can be bent. just like in football there's rules about how much air needs to be in the ball. every player has their own preference. most of them bend a little bit more. if they're caught that is a violation of -- >> that's cheating. >> and what's the penalty?

two minutes in the box. that's why i say it's not that bad. it's wrong. it's a violation of the rules. >> this is what matters. you chase the game by changing the ball and only you can have that access to that advantage. it's not like we share the ball back and forth. >> my producer says i'm supposed to say agree to disagree and go. thank you for putting up with that last segment. thank you for putting up with it too. an update on the severe weather in tornado alley. could more twisters be on the way? ct killer whales from the wild. and haven't for 35 years. with the hightest standard of animal care in the world, our whales are healthy. they're thriving. i wouldn't work here if they weren't. and government research shows they live just as long as whales in the wild. caring for these whales, we have a great responsibility to get that right. and we take it very seriously. because we love them.

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as we have been reporting this morning, a potentially dangerous forecast for this weekend in texas, oklahoma and kansas. tornado alley, they call it. severe storms on tap across that region, storms that have the

potential to form tornados. steven, what do you have for us in that part of the country? >> all right, steve. what we have are the ingredients for severe weather but probably not as bad as originally expected. we're missing the sunshine across the plains. we will see strong thunderstorms and a few tornados. but i don't think we will see those large destructive tornados here this afternoon in texas and oklahoma. but still be on the lookout. when you hear thunder, go inside. we'll see large hailstones and flash flooding and gusty winds. thunderstorms across north texas, oklahoma and western kansas. they will be there throughout the day. we will follow those storms across areas of the midwest so we will track it all weekend long. >> thanks for that update. appreciate that. join us tomorrow sunday morning, 8:00 a.m. had oregon senator will be on the show. as we leave, we thought we would show you more of the official

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