"the rachel maddow show" starts now. >> thanks for that. thanks to you at home for joining us this hour. rachel has the night off. do you believe the polls? how real is what they're showing? those are big questions right now in politics. for example, take the new poll out today in iowa. that poll shows wisconsin governor scott walker leading the republican race in that critical first in the nation caucus state. walker built a real lead in the polls out there. first place now. you can see there with 22%. in second place, right behind walker, donald trump. he's moved up in iowa. here's the key to that number. that 13% you see there for donald trump in second place in iowa. the poll was taken over three days. this past weekend. it was taken friday, saturday, and sunday. it was on saturday in the middle of that poll being taken that donald trump really stepped in it.

everyone assumed he did when he was in iowa on saturday and scuffed at the idea that john mccain is a war hero. this is the key now. the pollster that took that poll, they say when they called voters in iowa on sunday, right after trump said all that he said about john mccain, there was no drop-off in his support that they could find there was no immediate backlash against trump. at least not in iowa. at least not in that poll. in that finding, the fact that there was no backlash that surprised a lot of people today. how about this poll? this is a second poll out today. "the washington post"/abc news poll came out this afternoon. a national poll. not just iowa. this is the best poll yet for donald trump. he's in first place. 24% of the vote. almost doubling up scott walker who is back in second place at just 13%. now that poll, that abc/"the washington post" poll comes with fine print. it was taken over the weekend but in this poll there was a drop-off in donald trump support on sunday, the day after he tore

into john mccain. this is what we're trying to figure out right now. is donald trump going to pay a price for what he said? is he already paying a price for what he said about john mccain? for what he keeps saying about john mccain? or is he going to defy the laws of political gravity. is he going to survive this? could he get somehow stronger from this? this is a situation that in many ways is unprecedented. obviously we know that trump has been surging over to last month but these sortt of surges have happened plenty of times before. we have seen it plenty of times over in the leadup to republican primaries and caucuses when herman cain stormed to the top of the pack and then he melted down and didn't make it to the starting line in iowa. we saw something very similar with newt gingrich. we saw it several times in fact with newt gingrich back in 2011 and 2012. we saw massive spikes in his

polling numbers. there were times when he was blowing out mitt romney. gingrich was so confident at one point he said it was all over. he was going to win the nomination. there was no way to stop him. but then it really got serious because gingrich won the south carolina primary. he won the primary big. suddenly when he did that, when he won south carolina primary in a runaway, suddenly it looked like he could win the nomination. it's that exact moment when newt gingrich did that, when that reality started to dawn on the republican establishment, it's that moment that the establishment decided they had to do something. they looked at gingrich. they saw a general election disaster in the making. there was no way -- this is what they decided -- there was no way newt gingrich could represent their party that fall against barack obama. they did not want to nominate him and so they swung into action. there's an art to what they did here. there's an art to how the republican establishment handled that surge by newt gingrich.

it was pretty simple. they foond every piece of ammunition they could find and they used it. this was not a takedown by the mainstream media by what conservatives see as liberal media. this was a takedown orchestrated by republicans, by conservatives, by voices that the voters of the republican party, by the republican base, voices that they know and that they trust. these are the voices who started trashing gingrich and started trashing him relentlessly. this is an example. the drudge report. a major player in conservative media. when gingrich won south carolina, when it suddenly seemed possible he could be the republican presidential candidate unless something happened when that happened the drudge report devoted itself to putting out banners. gingrich repeatedly insulted reagan. ann coulter going out and telling that republican base, re-elect obama, vote newt. bob dole giving romney campaign a statement about just how bad

gingrich would be for the party if he was nominated. this was a statement that the conservative national review said the romney campaign then passed along to them. bob dole wrote back then. i have not been critical of newt gingrich but it's now time to take a stand before it is too late. all of this, all of this activity against newt gingrich was effective. it was brutally effective. republican voters heard republican voices. voices they trust telling them that newt was bad news and they listened. that was the end of the gingrich surge. that's the formula. that's how the republican establishment takes down an insurgent candidate that rockets to the top of the polls but who the establishment absolutely doesn't want the party to nominate. and now this brings us to donald trump because donald trump is playing that role.

donald trump is the surging candidate who the establishment wants the party to have nothing to do with. trump surge of course was sparked by comments about mexico and mexicans last month. >> when mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. they're not sending you. they're not sending you. they're sending people that have lots of problems. and they're bringing those problems with us. they're bringing drugs. they're bringing crime. they're rapists and some i assume are good people. >> those comments obviously sparked controversy. trump wouldn't back down in the face of that controversy. a big chunk of the republican base as a result rallied behind him. that's how he surged over the last month in this race. this was tricky for the republican establishment to handle this as it happened. they didn't like trump going out there and saying all of this, but they also couldn't really fight him when it came to the

issue of immigration. it's because when you stripped away the inflammatory rhetoric, trump's stance on immigration resonates with the conservative republican base. it was tough for republicans to condemn him while also agreeing with his basic policy views. a poll showed that around 70% of all republicans agree with trump when it comes to the issue of immigration. so the best in the face of all this, the best the national chairman could do is place a call to trump, a call in which he reportedly gently scolded him and asked him to tone it down. trump even disputes that that happened that the call went down that way. he said priebus called him to tell him he was doing great. to tell him he hit a nerve and should keep up the good work. when trump spoke out on immigration and got into trouble, the republican establishment couldn't do to him what they had done to gingrich four years ago. they didn't have the right ammunition on that subject. but now maybe, maybe, they do.

>> john mccain goes oh boy, trump makes my live difficult. he had 15,000 crazies show up. he called them all crazy. i said they weren't crazy. they were great americans. these people if you would have seen these people -- i know what a crazy is. i know all about crazies. these weren't crazies. he insulted me and everyone in that room. i said someone should run against john mccain who in my opinion has not been so hot. i supported him for president. i raised a million dollars for him. it's a lot of money. i supported him. he lost. i never liked him as much after that because i don't like losers. >> he's a war hero. >> he's a war hero because he was captured. i like people that weren't captured, okay, i hate to tell you. he's a war hero because he was captured. okay. you can have -- i believe

perhaps he's a war hero but right now he said some bad things about a lot of people. >> and with that, with those comments in iowa over the weekend, donald trump handed worried republicans a weapon that's much easier for them to use against him in a republican primary than anything that he said about immigration. here he is attacking john mccain. a guy who was one of the first ones in and one of the last ones out of vietnam. he was shot down over north vietnam on his 23rd bombing mission in 1967. he nearly drown when he parachuted into a leg fracturing both arms and a leg. he was pulled out by north vietnamese who tortured and interrogated him. he was offered release a number of times by the north vietnamese but each and every time john mccain refused. he refused because he was waiting until every man who was a prisoner before him was released. mccain spent 5 1/2 years in captivity as a prisoner of war. that is john mccain and that was his service to our country. service that donald trump seemed

to question, ridicule this weekend and so now the republican party can all read from the same script and condemn donald trump for what he said. rnc releasing this statement in direct response. senator mccain is an american hero because he served his country and sacrificed more than most can imagine. there's no place in our party where our country for comments that disparage those who have served honorably. in the past this would probably be the beginning of the end for donald trump. if we were looking at a regular candidate, we would be sure that is what would happen right now but this is why there's some suspense and we're not sure what will happen here because donald trump isn't playing by normal rules of political combat. he's not backing down here. he's not giving an inch. that's going to overcomplicate this. >> you said john mccain was -- you liked people who didn't get captured. >> i do like people that don't get captured.

>> are you blaming john mccain for his capture? >> i'm saying that john mccain has not done a good job. >> why would you say you like people who don't get captured? it's a simple question. >> i do. why? people that don't get captured i'm not supposed to like. i like people that don't get captured and i respect the people that do get captured. >> why would you say that in the context of john mccain? >> excuse me. i like the people that don't get -- you have many people that didn't get captured. i respect them greatly. you have people that got captured. i respect them greatly also. >> so in response to all of this, john mccain went on this network earlier today and said that donald trump doesn't owe him an apology but he does owe veterans an apology. trump for his part took to the opinion pages of "usa today" to ratchet up his criticism of mccain and not to concede anything here saying he doesn't need to be lectured by mccain. donald trump is not backing down here. the republican establishment has been loudly condemning him for what he said far more republican voices doing this, louder than

anything we heard after his immigration comments but donald trump is not conceding anything to them. he's only getting more defiant and more aggressive trying to throw it right back in their faces. the way these things usually work, key opinion shapers and the republican universe lack onto something like trump's comments and beat that drum and republican voters eventually follow them and that formula worked in the past and polls will shift and the bubble will burst. that's what usually happens. this is an unusual situation. we've seen this play out before in terms of what the establishment is doing right now. is trying to do right now. in the past it's worked. it worked with newt gingrich four years ago. but they've never really tried it on someone like donald trump. that's the key variable here. joining us now is former director of online communication for rnc. liz, thanks for being here tonight. >> thanks for having me. >> the republican establishment goes to war with donald trump.

their weapon right now is john mccain and these comments. what effect do you think it will have? >> i actually think in this case that may not be the thing that takes trump down. i actually think that trump has a real numbers problem as a result of these comments. this country has a lot of veterans. we have a lot of people who served their country and who didn't suffer nearly as bad as john mccain did. if john mccain's service isn't considered honorable, what it those people's service considered to be by donald trump? that's a real problem. the establishment can say whatever it wants to about this but the more these comments are publicized and the more you're going to have grassroots individuals and actual voters saying if he thinks that about john mccain, what does he think about me and my husband and what does he think about my father? the numbers will not work for him. >> the question i have about that though is those same grassroots republicans you're describing, what they already think of john mccain. so many of them as a politician -- >> those are a lot of same people that got john mccain the

nomination. there are a lot of grumpy old men out there who many of them have military records and did service and they were drawn to john mccain. they also liked in some cases people like ron paul. they like the grumpy old man. those people are not -- >> one of the themes of politics for the last decade or so, republican politics for last 15 years when john mccain ran against george w. bush and was blasted as relying on democratic voters to beat him when he did immigration reform with ted kennedy in 2006 and 2007, there's been a strain of conservative disgruntlement with john mccain. when i look at the response we see from some republicans like rush limbaugh sticking with donald trump on this and drudge report that teamed up on newt gingrich four years ago, i wonder the fact that this is john mccain has anything to do with it. >> for certain people that's true. there are certain people who have real issues with john mccain. but that's actually the sort of

establishment that you're talking about. what i'm saying is when you're actually looking at the voters and people who ultimately have to cast votes and people who you saw with that "washington post"/abc poll, you saw numbers drop off between saturday and sunday. those people will take him down. i don't know if it will be the establishment. you have important voices like eric erickson who hosts a talk show critical of trump and let's not forget another problem with trump. he also made comments over the weekend, i believe also in iowa, that seized on by a lot of christian conservatives where he basically said he doesn't feel he's never had to ask god to forgive him for anything and he equated communion to eating a cracker. that won't play well with the evangelical base of the party. veterans were a core constituency that helped john mccain get the nomination in 2008. trump has a real numeric problem with these two comments and he's probably going to keep putting

his foot in and create more of a numeric problem. i think when you look at further polling, you'll keep seeing this slide. this is going to be an issue. >> we haven't seen the slide yet. we'll see what the fallout is, but we haven't seen the slide just yet. just out tonight, "the des moines register" editorial calling on donald trump to get out. he can apologize to mccain and terminate this ill conceived campaign. do you think resonance of -- this is mainstream media now. this isn't conservative media saying this. do you think this has an effect? >> i generally think editorials don't influence public opinion as much as they do reflect it. same thing with endorsements. so you say you get an endorsement from the "l.a. times", it's more indicative of

public sentiment. trump shot himself in the foot and he has a problem with voters. he has a problem with evangelical voters at this point and a lot of people coming out of church this weekend were bothered by what they heard him say with regard to forgiveness and with regard to communion and veterans are very unhappy about the comments about john mccain. the fact that he's doubling down just means that's going to get more air time and more and more veterans are going to have an opportunity to hear him denigrating their service. >> it's an interesting variable. i heard rush limbaugh say the pattern in these in the past has been when the candidate comes under fire by the establishment, the candidate will back off and try to apologize. the variable with trump is he won't do it. he'll throw it back in their face. liz mair, thank you for your time. appreciate it.ews to get to

tonight including yet another presidential announcement on the republican side that is set to take place tomorrow. and bernie sanders with another eye popping display this weekend. more record crowds for the 73-year-old senator in texas and arizona. that's coming up next. stay with us.

it's not every day you get to see a presidential candidate in their shorts but today is your lucky day because this right here is republican candidate without pants. this picture is from behind so it's a test. can you name this presidential candidate? give you a second there. time is up. the answer is? republican governor john kasich of ohio. this is governor kasich this past weekend testing out the old podium. that spot there is where kasich is going to officially launch his presidential campaign tomorrow at a venue called the ohio union on the campus of ohio

state university, the ohio state university. tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m. eastern time, john kasich will become the 16th republican candidate in the race for president of the united states. the republican race for president is the one that's gotten the most of the attention so far. there were some big developments this weekend on the democratic side as well. many of them concerning a gentleman named bernie sanders. that story next.

we sometimes forget what a slug fest they had back in 2008. now, technically back then there were eight candidates for the democratic presidential

nomination. at least at one point. but very quickly it became a two-way contest. it was obama versus clinton. obama the insurgent. he struck first with a big win in iowa and then clinton bounced back in new hampshire. then she beat him again in nevada. at that point it looked at that moment like she was home free. she started out as the big front runner. she was establishment favorite. she took a hit and righted her ship and now she was rolling. that's how things had gone before. that's how it was supposed to play out again. hillary would coast to the nomination. this time back in 2008, something funny happened. the next primary after nevada was in south carolina. and in south carolina hillary clinton lost again. she lost big. she was crushed by obama. the margin was nearly two to one. it was more than two to one in fact. that was when it became clear just how different, how

extraordinary, how unprecedented, the obama campaign actually was. obama was playing the role of insurgent candidate back in 2008. in a typical democratic primary, the insurgent candidate does well with one specific segment of the party. typically white liberals. and then loses because the rest of the party base doesn't play along. but obama in 2008 put together a coalition that no one had ever put together before. on his way to becoming the first african-american president, obama managed to unite the white liberals to backed him as insurgent candidate and african-american voters who favor the candidate of the establishment. no democratic insurgent made a coalition like that work before. obama did it in 2008 and in south carolina is when people realized it was happening so in 2008, insurgent obama beat establishment favorite hillary clinton and won the democratic nomination. he did what so many other insurgents before him tried and failed to do like gary hart, paul tsongas and bill bradley.

sanders is technically an independent. self-described socialist which makes him pretty much the perfect candidate for the chunk of the democratic party where insurgents tend to draw their deepest support from those white liberal voters. sanders has been drawing huge crowds as a candidate. he's presented way more of a challenge to the establishment candidacy of clinton than most people had expected. but so far bernie sanders is nowhere when it comes to african-american voters. he's polled as low as 9% overall and as low as 2% among black voters. so with that kind of showing, sanders can't win or even make this a contest for too long. he says he's trying though. his campaign officials say they're making inroads and this weekend at the annual netroots nation conference of progressive

activists, bernie sanders faced open opposition from the voters of color he is trying to win over and he needs to win over. watch this. >> "wall street journal" poll -- i will answer your question, but i would like to speak for a few minutes. >> a couple more minutes and then we'll get -- >> i was told we had 15 minutes, right? >> a little shorter than that, sir. >> the issue is -- >> hold on one second. >> the issue is that it is -- shall i continue? >> hold on. hold on. >> it's okay with me. listen, black lives of course matter. i spent 50 years of my life fighting for civil rights and for dignity.

if you don't want me to be here, that's okay. >> no, sir, we want you to be here and address that and all of the other questions. >> i don't want to outscream people. >> that was how bernie sanders spent his saturday at netroots nation. you can feel bad for sanders because he was sandbagged there and conference organizers willingly stood by and let him get shouted down by protesters but he adjusted his message in response to what happened. by sunday, sanders was directly addressing black lives matter movement. he did it again at his rallies yesterday in texas where he got more huge crowds and spoke out about police brutality as he gets ready to move his campaign into heavily black states like georgia and of course the all important south carolina, the first stop after iowa and new hampshire. does bernie sanders need to change his message if he's going to break out of his white liberal base? could he expand his appeal? does sanders have any chance of reassembling that magical obama coalition that made history back in 2008? joining us now is the national political correspondent for "the washington post."

karen, thanks for being here. so obama put this together. this coalition we're talking about in 2008. bernie sanders has a piece of it. it's the piece that sort of always there for the insurgent. do you see a scenario where he's able to expand it like obama did? >> he's got a couple problems. obama not only brought in the african-american vote and really they didn't believe -- i mean, hillary clinton was leading barack obama among african-americans until obama won iowa. so african-americans believing this guy had a shot but obama also appealed to independents, moderates who were as burned out on the iraq war as liberals were at that point. so there are a lot of questions right now about bernie sanders. i think that his reaction to that outburst at netroots nation sort of showed that he doesn't have, at least not yet, the band width to get beyond his basic core message of income inequality.

in the meantime, you do see hillary clinton who has, you know, a great comfort with these issues kind of outmaneuvering him. he talks about jobs, not jails. she, today, on her facebook page said we need to acknowledge hard truths about race and justice and one of those is that racial inequality is not nearly a symptom of economic equality. we saw her husband a couple days ago acknowledge that his policies of the 1990s had created the incarceration problems that so animate so many african-american voters. >> do you think it's interesting watching what you're describing and watching it play out the last few days especially hillary's comments today in that facebook forum. is it an indication that clinton campaign is worried about bernie sanders and they see that he's struggling when it comes to african-american voters right now and they see how important

african-american voters are to the coalition she's trying to win and they're trying to head him off here. >> she's talking about income inequality and middle class issues. she's obviously nervous. there's still a real question whether bernie sanders will end up being howard dean of '04 or has potential to build that coalition. he also doesn't have the kind of infrastructure that barack obama already had at this point. his ground operation is nowhere near the kind of campaign that obama had put together. >> it's interesting, too, if you look at the poll numbers that bernie sanders has right now, it's been impressive in a way that he's gotten to the point that nobody saw coming and i don't think martin o'malley saw that coming and he thought it might be him. at the same time if you look at it, what he has right now is what elizabeth warren had. a year ago everyone tested elizabeth warren against hillary saying she should get in the race and elizabeth warren looked at the numbers a year ago that sanders has now and she said not enough to win, i'm not going to run.

>> as formidable as hillary clinton was in '08, she's even more so now. these crowds that bernie sanders are drawing are impressive but i'm not sure they're significant. what's significant is he raised $13.5 million and three-quarters of it is from small contributors. he has a lot of passion and energy out there. the question is whether he can take that and build upon it and broaden it. >> that's the key question going forward. a lot of polls will come out. let's see if he starts making headway where nobody thought he would make headway. karen, thanks for your time tonight. still ahead, the u.s. starts a new era with two long standing and supposed enemies. diplomacy is breaking out in all sorts of historic ways. that's coming up next. ever since darryl's wife started using gain flings, their laundry smells more amazing than ever. (sniff) honey, isn't that the dog's towel? (dog noise) hey, mi towel, su towel. more scent

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>> just like you and me, sometimes politicians hit the gym to clear their heads and to think. sometimes it's to zone out and work on guns and sometimes to flip through the opinion pages between reps, maybe it's just to work off on the job stress. politicians go to the gym just like you and me but unlike you and me, sometimes what they're trying to workout there is how to avoid nuclear armageddon. how that last part works is next.

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do you want to see two u.s. senators on a horseback ride together? who wouldn't. this is how arizona republican jeff flake and republican dean heller spent their weekend. they took a ride out at a ranch.

the ranch is called, heller high water. give that a minute to sink in. a good reminder that some senators are good friends and the stuff discussed on the weekend horseback ride is more important than what's discussed on the floor. the only two republican senators that supported obama's moves to reestablish ties with cuba. maybe that's a policy belief they hold independently of any conversation they had or maybe it started as a conversation on a nice, long horseback ride or something like that. or, for example, take the senate gym. it's not just the place senators go when they want to work out. it's the place where important relationships can be formed, sometimes across the aisle. that's what democratic senator chuck schumer of new york told

me when i sat down with him on friday. >> a guy i work with on issues even though we're miles apart is jeff sessions. a lot of relationships ironically start in the senate gym. most republicans exercise early. most democrats exercise late. i exercise early. >> is there a reason for that? >> you will have to ask some p.e. guy or psychologist or something. so i get there early. who is in the gym? lamar alexander, one of my best friends. john thune who i work closely with. jeff sessions. i recruited marco rubio to be part of our group of eight being in the gym. dick durbin was in the gym. he's earlier than me and he helped recruit him, too. >> because the senate gym is where chuck schumer talks with his colleagues because the gym is where he sometimes recruits colleagues to support his position on things. that gym may play a pivotal role in the iran nuclear deal. think about this. chuck schumer is a key vote. probably the key vote when it comes to this deal. close ally of the president and one of israel's fiercest

advocates in congress and he's poised to be the next democratic leader in the u.s. senate. now, the fear among the deal supporters obviously that includes the white house is that if schumer decides to go all out against this deal, he could also bring quite a few democrats with him. i asked schumer about the tough position he's in on this. >> i'm not going to comment until i read the document. that's what's going to guide me. look, when i think the president is wrong, i go against him. i just voted against the trade bill and tpa because i thought it hurt middle class incomes. president talked to me regularly on this issue. i told him unless it changes, even if it helps corporate profits, i'm not going to be for it if it decreases middle class incomes and i think it does. there are times when i broken with the president before when i really think that i have a different point of view and the right thing is not what he's doing. >> you mentioned that you are a very sort of staunch defender of israel. advocate for israel. and not only is benjamin

netanyahu outspoken but the leader of the opposition in israel also is against this. you have the democrat and republican in israel against this. could you be pro-israel and still -- >> there are all kinds of -- many people, many different places have many different opinions. i got to read it. listen to them but make up my own mind. >> now schumer is such an important vote when it comes to the iran deal that republicans and pro-israel groups have actually made him a centerpiece of their efforts to derail this deal. one pro-israel group funded a six-figure web campaign targeting schumer earlier this year. executive director said if schumer says i looked at the bill and studied details and think it's a good deal and will stop iran from getting weapons, there will be zero hope of overriding an obama veto. if schumer says this doesn't do it, it lifts the arm's embargo and doesn't have any time anywhere inspections, we have a fight on our hands. he's a linchpin or a bellwether.

could schumer detail it and become the top democrat in the senate? he pointed out he bucked the president on another big priorities, the transpacific partnership because he said he thought it was wrong. on the other hand, could chuck schumer who describes himself as a guardian of israel, go against apec on their biggest priority? he's done that before, too. he voted against the gulf war back in 1991. so everyone is looking to chuck schumer but so far he's staying mum. they voted to move toward lifting auctions on iran. this is a critical step in making the nuclear deal work but the idea of sanctions relief infuriates congressional republicans not to mention reflects of distrust of anything having to do with the united nations but most damaging was

the endorsement this week from iran's supreme leader. without his support, of course, the deal would go nowhere but now skeptical members of congress can point to his support as evidence that a deal must be bad for the united states. the ayatollah's comments about the u.s. insistence the deal is a victory for iran's nuclear program don't help when it comes to politics of the united states either. this week secretaries kerry, moniz and lew will brief members of the house and they'll testify before the senate foreign relations committee. so how exactly is the obama administration going to sell this deal in congress? is it just a matter of avoiding a veto override or do they think they'll convince skeptics over the next two months? joining us now is steve clemons. thanks for being here. let's start with the united nations and the ayatollah. the u.n. to make this deal work

has to do what it did today. the ayatollah has to be behind it. has to support it. these are necessary steps. how much do they complicate domestic politics here in the united states when it comes to this congressional vote? >> they screw things up a lot when it comes to how congress feels about itself and the role. 15-0 unanimous vote in the u.n. essentially puts a gun to it the head of congress and says if you want to defect and want to isolate the united states and walk away from the rest of the world, go ahead and do it. right now the fundamental issue of france, russia, germany, england, all on board to move in a different direction. so it's in a very different place. the ayatollah is different. he can come and sort of kick and spit at this thing and that actually isn't necessarily a bad thing. to the degree that he remains ambivalent isn't good. if he's overjoyed with what's going on, that would also be read as a canary in the coal mine as a bad thing.

the more that certain sectors of iranian society raise negative things about it, that's probably good for prospects in congress. even when there was a deal with israel, he remained unpopular in egypt. it's not clear that the momentum they have right now will be sustained over time. we'll have to see how it plays out in iranian politics. >> let's talk about in terms of domestic politics. let's talk about schumer and his role in this. right now this is pretty much -- i know there's exceptions -- pretty much right now this breaks down as republican/democrat typical partisan divide issue. the risk for the white house trying to get this deal through is schumer after he reads this decides he's against it and not only is schumer against it but that could offer a bunch of democrats cover as well to turn against this thing. that is the root to this thing being derailed. how likely do you think that is? >> it's going to be complicated for chuck schumer. he's going to have to meet a standard that the president is asking republican critics to meet, which is what is his alternative? a man of a predetermined sentiment for israel or can he

rise above that and think through nuts and boats of a serious national security deal and make a principle case for it or principle case against it. if he ends up going against it, the question is he flamboyantly against it or modestly against it? modest opposition is something the white house can deal with. flamboyant opposition is likely to bring on a lot of other people that want to be in chuck schumer's world. we're talking about schumer offending the president's priorities. there will be followers of schumer that want to be careful of their priorities. >> there's an important distinction. you can be against something or you can really be against something. there's a possibility for schumer to try to split the difference. how about the other side of this? we say so much reflects of opposition from republicans across the board on the republican agenda, will that apply or do you see a scenario where the white house could win over some republicans? >> there are some things that would move people and that is to understand, for instance, from the administration what went wrong with the north korea deal.

in the north korea deal, let's look and understand the nuts and bolts. we provided them energy aid, food aid, we had promised, we had inspectors, we had deals where our nuclear weapons labs were involved in monitoring their materials and it all went awry and they have nuclear weapons today. some people, and that includes people like bob corker, want to understand the dimensions of that and how this nuclear arrangement is going to be substantially different. corker continues to impress me as someone who is differentiating himself from knee-jerk republican opposition. he comes from a place of skepticism and he may shame some others who look at this not in a knee-jerk way or raw political way because it's an important arrangement he may inspire a chunk of people. i still think the senate largely is going to vote in opposition

but i think at the end of the day you may end up with a couple republicans that actually end up supporting the arrangement. >> we'll look for schumer on the democratic side and corker on the republican side. steve clemons, thank you for joining us today. we'll be right back. ... ...

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this was the scene in chattanooga, tennessee this weekend as people gathered along a make-shift memorial by one of the facilities that came under attack by the lone gunman. the navy operational support center and marine corps reserve center, those marines were gunnery sergeant thomas sullivan. staff sergeant david wyatt and carson holmquist. randall smith died from injuries sustained at that shoot out at the navy operation center. over the weekend we learned a little bit more about the gunman. for years he suffered from depression and had a history of substance abuse, and last year he left the united states to visit jordan for several months, apparently in a move to try to

escape bad influences at home. that is what we learned over the weekend. but there is still a lot we don't know about the circumstances of this attack, including the motive. the fbi is leading that investigation. they reportedly in the process of conducting an analysis of the gunman's cell phone and computer. in an effort to determine whether he was influenced by or involved with the terror group isis. although officials have told nbc news it does not appear at this point that he was involved in any terrorist groups. then there's the investigation of the crime scene. the fbi has not released many details about the course of events that led to the deaths of the five service members at that second military location. but today the washington post is reporting that authorities have recovered a pistol that may have been privately owned and used by one of the marines killed in the course of that attack. they are trying to determine,

based on forensics, whether the gun, which does not appear to be a standard issue pistol for military personnel was used to wound the gunman during the shootout on thursday. in the meantime, officials are take steps to make sure this kind of attack is not replicated. last night a directive was sent out to increase security at recruiting stations across the country. seven states' governors are authorized the arming of full-time national guard members in an effort to beef up security. be right back.

this weekend, with very little fanfare, the u.s. men's national team won their match against cuba. they didn't just beat cuba, they

throttled cuba 6-0. the game, though, did have historic significance. it marked the last international competition between the u.s. and cuba before the two countries restore normal diplomatic relations. it has been more than 54 years since dwight eisenhower severed ties with cuba, closed the embassy in havana amid deteriorating relations with fidel castro. but today since 1961, the u.s. embassy was officially opened for business with hundreds lined up to apply for visas. and the d.c. embassy had the flag raised for the first time in 54 years. also protesters, too, showed up to chant the name of long-time leader fidel castro. the u.s. embassy in castro will not officially raise the flag until next month. john kerry is due to visit. and many questions remain about the crippling trade embargo, human rights abuses and guantanamo bay.

but after more than 50 years, having both embassies open for business seems like a good place to start. aabuses anden guantanamo bay. it's tuesday, july 21st. right now on "first look," one of the newspapers calls on donald trump to pull the plug on his side show. our heat smashed temperature records for the first month of the year. did others know the t shoot per beforehand? the surfer that survives the shark attack speaks live. a country music breakup and much more. "first look" starts now. good morning everybod