what we've seen from hartford to harlem to chicago, all of these shootings and yet, we've not seen movements on background checks and mental health. i mean simple things that all americans should unite around. we can't get numb. we've got to stop and we've got to stop these indicating our communities with guns. thanks for watching. i'm al sharp ton. "hardball" starts now. comic book hero to run for president. let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews in washington. the republican party is packed deniers.

rubio walker and the rest of you, he's doing exactly that. joining me is ryan griffin, the washington burro chief at the "huffington post" and the chief political correspondent at fox. three days to go and trump is triumphing the polls. trump surges topping with 26%, leads bush by 11. the highest any republican candidate received fox began polling the field. the journal has trump leading the field with 19%, up above scott walker in second. a commanding jump that gained 13 points in the last three weeks. he leads the field with 26%. the poll has him 14 points ahead of jeb bush. remember the establishment candidate? trump's favorables with republican voters rocketing before he announced 20% held a

favorable view with trump shot up 20 points within a month and another 12 in the last few weeks. trump is viewed favorably by most republicans. the director of the polling sized up trump this way, there is no clear sense of who his constituency is and makes it difficult for opponents to figure out how to take him on. that is fascinating. i want to start with joy in new york. everybody said the poor un uneducated white guy seems like according to the polling we looked at not just hard right, not just center right, middle right, moderate men and women both. you know you see numbers that surprise you. your thoughts? this guy is hard to wrestle with come thursday night. >> it will be interesting to do a diagram of trump's poll numbers with the approval ratings of republicans of their own political party. i think you're seeing a perfect

conflew wednesday conflew ens with 100% name i.d. or close to it and add to it frustrations of republican voters across the board with their own party and they are looking at donald trump, somebody they feel they know, they know from tv who is saying all of the politically incorrect things that the base wants to hear. it's what they want to hear and republicans who think this is not real it's because they themselves are out of touch with their own base. >> ryan what is amazing is his lawyer the other day said you can't drop jose andrez you can't drop your deal with him on a hotel because of anti hispanic remarks. he's made it before. that's his defense. what do you make of the guy that takes slashes at ethnic groups and the president's illegal, from africa. how do you stop a guy who does it all the time? we dug up amazing stuff. this guy isn't a new kid on the

block slashing groups. >> makes it harder. look what he said in the 1 980s and 1990s. he said it last week that takes air out of it. look at the mccain comments. look what -- >> these are gaps. >> no these aren't gaffes and people are saying well you know, he's not politically correct, so let him have a little bit -- >> trump continued to scorch the campaign in an interview. here is trump going after president obama. >> you said of barack obama sadly because president obama has done such a poor job as president, you won't see another black president for generations. what did you mean by that? >> well i think he's been a very poor president. he has done a very poor job as president. he has set a very poor standard. i think that he has set a very low bar and i think it's a shame for the african american people and by the way, he has done nothing for african americans. you look at what has gone on

with income levels and what has gone on with youth. i thought that he would be a great cheer leader for this country and do a fabulous job for the african american citizens of this country. he has done nothing. >> well, that's as pure b.s. as i've heard. that's all right. it covers up i'm totally against this guy. i've been against him since the time he arrived and treated him like an illegal immigrant and enjoyed everything that's gone wrong. he's out there with crocodile tears saying i wish he had done more for inner city poor or some crap like that. he didn't want that to happen. >> i'm so disappointed my opponent didn't do a better job. the problem with what he said is it's about the most racist thing you can possibly say, which is because this black guy whose president didn't do well no black person will be elected president after, not only does it say something about racism but they think all black people -- >> chris, chris, chris -- >> i know.

i'm a roman catholic a lot of us were happy. he would have been blamed for the great depression and we never got in there again. that's something i grew up with. your view, joy? >> the fact inaccuracy, poor barack obama save the the auto industry, the economy from going over a cliff, got health care done which democrats and republicans have been trying to do for 100 years, got osama bin laden, 5.5% unemployment and stock market 14 15,000. such horrible job. the bottom line is donald trump doesn't attempt to check his facts. the president has no problems in the area of whether or not he was a successful president. he's got that box checked. but what you do hear with donald trump in the sentence that i pull out of that is i thought he would be a great cheerleader for the country. there is a part of the republican base we don't like to talk about that believed to be a successful quote unquote black president meant spending four years doing the wave and talk thing about how fabulous america

is and how grateful he was to be president and not trying to actually govern or do anything or be the president and there are americans who recent barack obama for attempting to actually exercise the powers of the presidency and trump represents them. >> so this is interesting they wanted him to be -- >> they wanted him to be a potted plant painted red white and blue that reaffirmed how great the country is without challenging the country. there is something about african american politicians that get a lot of heat for anything that appears to challenge the unquestioned greatness of the country and we do have real race problems, which came forward when president got elected. they are real out there and people who embody them and don't like the idea of a president asserting himself as an african american man using the powers of the presidency and trump is the perfect leader for them. >> our poll today makes the point, at least in gross terms what you said. 33% of this country across the

board is very negative towards obama, very negative. they just don't like him. now it could be all those reasons he turned out to be more of an aggressive president, more democratic advocate president, black advocate president, i think he's been moderate myself, your view? i know there is a 33% that say i don't want this guy in the world. i don't want him anymore here. >> to joy's point, there was this feeling in 2008 that okay now we have elected an african american as president. so now we can move past this whole thing. okay? consider this our apology for everything bad that happened in the past and we'll move forward. any hint there were still any problems that needed to be fixed was treated. >> he's in policies helping the lower and middle classes that also disproportionally help -- >> by the way, a lot of reasons he's more militant to use an old

term events have occurred with police handleing of african american men and most cases look bad. ferguson is troubling but the others look clear cut and bad. trump has built a brand and here is how he started the interview with larry king. this is back in '89. this isn't on your level of importance, joy, but leading the republican fight for president. here it is. >> do you mind if i sit back a bit because your breath is very bad. it really is. has this ever been told to you before? >> no. >> then i won't bother. >> that's how you get the edge. >> he roasted himself on national television. here he is on another case of being donald trump. >> what's the difference between a wet raccoon and donald j. trump's hair? a wet raccoon doesn't have $7

billion [ bleep ] in the bank. >> ego. just a few years before that in 2007, trump tackled vince mcman in wwe's wrestle mania. watch this. >> look at this. trump! trump! [ laughter ] >> oh my god! >> the takeover of donald trump on mcman has happened in wrestle mania. >> are we missing the serious conversation about race and black president and how he has to be more assesstive than thank you boss for giving me the job. what is going on is something bigger. he knows tv. he knows theater. whatever he does the this thursday night is going to be interesting and most of the other guys are dead in term thes of the flat footed people of no interest. >> politicians not showmen. it's a completely different skill, not entirely different.

>> no i think roosevelt had theater and jack kennedy did and kennedy, they brought a show with them. >> the scary -- >> a lot of these other guys are stiffs that's why he's walking through them like a knife through butter. >> he could prove if he was elected president that anyone could do it. >> do you think so? can anybody make $11 billion? >> i mean -- >> dollars. >> he's sucking up to who he hates now. >> your last word because you had the most serious point about the president we have now but i want to keep the focus on the president we might have. this guy is in fourth place as a probability. this isn't just a joke anymore. he may be a joke. if you look at the other guys he's up against, they aren't that great. just aren't. >> they are not showing you made a great point. this president did elect an actor before and look i think donald trump represents something we don't like to acknowledge which is the ugly american.

beware of being the ugly american. there is a stereo type rolling over other people and flaunting wealth and kind of politically incorrect. it's a terrible stereo type and mean but there are people that do have these edges to them. donald trump is one of them. he's speaking for the people that hate with a capital h barack obama and hate a lot of the changes that are taking place in the country and not comfortable with the direction the country is going in and they want somebody to say that straight no chaser and not use the pollitical language they hear. the challenge for other republicans is for a serious person to try to get credibility with that base but that base is angry at the republicans, too. it will be hard for the so-called serious members of that i guess clown car to over overcome him. >> you're something, joy, i can't disagree with a word you said. who can? really, that was really powerful put. i hope that put that in a time

capsule. >> thank you. >> joy is great. joy reed in new york couple guys supporting cast. [ laughter ] >> we're the side shows. >> like berkeley. i was in a restaurant in 1968 on the way to the peace corps, we went to a quiet place and i looked around and realized the only people making noise in this lunch place were americans. who are these jokers in you're right, it's us. the ugly americans. join us thursday night for a full debate coverage on "hardball." we'll be on live and back at 11:00 until 1:00 in the morning if you want to get on our show if you don't make it on the other one, join us at midnight thursday. we'll go pretty late in the night. coming up is there anything to talk to the talk to vice president joe biden may go against hilary? this is a fight. don't kid yourself. you're going against her, not getting in i'm not sure.

ran paul the debate stage and will he stand out or get drowned out by rivals beating the drums of war? it's what happened to his dad, former vice presidential candidate ron paul coming with us tonight live. president obama is going big with an eye on legacy. this time the target is climate change. let me finish with gems new gems to the wall street journal poll. some real surprises about planned parenthood for example which will lightening you up if you're progressive. this is "hardball" the place for politics.

more not news, a vote 53 to 46, short of the threshold republicans needed. the gop effort came in the wake of recently released videos in

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welcome back to "hardball" is vice president joe biden serious about running for president. the answer is question according to reports. the "new york times" columnist wrote quote the 72-year-old vice president has been having meetings as had the washington red residence to explore the idea. there is a very personal reason she recount as conversation shortly before the younger biden died. quote, he tried to make his father promise to run saying they should not revert to the clintons and said the country

would be better with biden values. in one former senior biden aid told nbc, quote he is definitely thinking about it not just for show and many are urging him to do it but at the end of the day he'll decide to take a pass and instead spend tileme with family. an msnbc analyst and ann guerin is a political reporter for ""the washington post"". >> my gut is he will not do it. >> what about the reporting going on? people are saying there are meetings, i have heard he's been meeting with journalist of deep background, not me couple hour meetings, long soul searching. is it right? will i be heavy enough? >> this guy always wanted to be president and this is -- he's 72 years old. this is the last time this is a real possibility even though it appears to be a slim possibility. >> what is the cause of the rumble now? >> part of it is the tragic death of his son, biden is back

in the news and it's the maureen reporting. >> why this week all of a sudden are we getting marine and "the new york times" way ahead of you guys. i didn't think the piece made the strong point he is running but certainly raised a lot of questions about the meetings he's been having. >> yeah part of that is because what is happening with hillary clinton. >> numbers are down. >> numbers are down and his position has always been that he would be the backup right? if she i'mem inploids. >> to be there -- >> a lot of people guy whose have grown up with blake and those people they were there when the other guy blew it. they were on the ballot when the other guy was in the marchital situation. i got to decide who i am and my son told me before he died you are the man who should be president. >> i have good authority right after the funeral of his son.

>> beau. >> beau that joe biden had been telling people i've had enough. i don't have -- my heart is not in it and i had that on good authority. but between that time and this a few thing haves happened. first of all, calls he made after the funeral, peepople were expressing condolences but saying you know what joe? you got to run. you got to run. so he got reinforcement from friends and poll numbers of hilary go down and the driving force for joe biden was not his, the death bed statement because i didn't hear that right after words. that's a piece of -- i would say with all due respect, that's been sort of amped up a bit the last few weeks. >> you knew -- >> wait a minute -- >> both boys were pushing him to run, you know that. >> sons not boys. >> the key thing here is the clintons. the key thing is the clintons and i plural. joe biden and his family and

friends don't like however much good they have done and however much joe biden respects hilary as a woman, as a path breaker and good secretary of state, he doesn't like the way the clintons view politics. which is the money, which is $300,000 speeches which it seems to be about them not about the country and not about the kennedy style irish american politics that joe grew up with the ask not politics. it's the ask not politics he thinks is missing and he doesn't think anybody else can stop them. i think he wished there were. he doesn't think martin ochocan. >> the left is taken by bernie. you have to go for the senator. bad news for hillary clinton in the brand-new nbc wall street journal poll released this evening, 37% of americans view

her positively but half have a negative view of her and that's a stark change from last month with 4 4 % viewed her positively and 44% were negative. tomorrow the clinton campaign will air the first tv adds in new hampshire. the first called dorothy tells the story of clinton's mother. let's watch a bit of it. >> when i think about why i'm doing this i think about my mother dorothy. she was abandoned by her parents at the age of eight, sent to chicago to l.a. to live with grandparents that didn't want her but people showed her kindness, gave her a chance. >> that's called "family strong" and focuses on clinton's own biography as an advocate for children and as secretary of state. >> the senator who made sure the heros and families of 9/11 got the care they needed the secretary of state who joined the cabinet of the man that defeated her because when your president calls, you serve.

and now a new title, grandma. >> i believe that when families are strong america is strong. >> well those are professional ads that will help a bit and my question is why does she need them now in august of 2015? >> that's the right question to ask. this is earlier than we had anticipated she would go up with ads. these are expensive buys $1 million, $2 million over five weeks. her numbers are turning upside down why are they going down? the benghazi drum beat by republicans? >> all the things in that constolecon constillation, benghazi e-mail. that's part of it. part of it is she's been out there on the trail for several

months and she's, it was, her numbers were bound to go down a bit, certainly from the time she was secretary of state but from the time she first entered the race. what i sense from the campaign is they were not quite prepared for the numbers to slide this much. and bernie sanders is partly responsible for that the passage of time is responsible. they feel like they need to stir things up. they are going back to the soft focus focus material she used the at the beginning of the campaign that seems off to he. i think it's a good strategy also -- >> why is he engaging in a conversation with the american people right now? everybody wants to hear from her. just talk to us. >> i think that she may misjudged the temperament of the electret right now. they are disgusted with politics as they have known it. the that's why they are looking for bernie and playing around with donald trump on the right. they hate the congress. they hate politics. they hate the media. >> so well said.

>> so she's running a campaign that sounds like and looks like something out of i don't know, the '80s, the '90s. this is a bad time. >> 65% of the american people don't like the direction we're going in. >> it's smart for her to run as a woman this time and in the subtext of that second ad was how can you not trust grandma? >> i know. >> i mean she's -- >> a lot of grandmas around. thank you, my wife i'm a grandpa. thank you ann guerin. former congressman ran paul will be here to weigh in. this is "hardball" the place for politics. moderate to severe crohn's disease is tough but i've managed. except that managing my symptoms was all i was doing. and when i finally told my doctor, he said humira is for adults like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease.

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[ applause ] >> welcome back to "hardball." when he declared candidacy for president, he was building upon the legacy of his father ron paul that attracted strong libertarian support in the 200 8 and 2001. with the campaigns well underway, paul struggled dog by last luster fundraiser a. year ago ago, he led rivals according to a poll last summer now the same poll shows him tied with marco rubio and ben carson in fourth place. well behind trump walker and bush. according to a piece in the washington post today titled as debate looms, chance to be gop dove, the dove paul intends to contrast limb self-with the rivals on foreign policy at this thursday's debate. paul vowed he will ask presidential rivals face-to-face where they want to intervene and every civil war around the

world. i want to be known as the candidate not eager for war and thinks war is the last resort. the libertarian wing is waiting and waiting and waiting for paul to do that. i'm joined by former u.s. congress congressman ran paul. congressman, thank you for joining us because i do support what you're trying to do and your son trying to do. of all people, last week had the gull to say we have to bomb iran. no more deals, no more agreements, no more containment. we must go to war again. we toppled libya and iraq and trying to topple iran. when are they going to stop getting us into more trouble in the republican party? your thoughts? >> well i wish they listened to reason and look at what is happening. i think it's going to stop unfortunately when we go broke and there is nothing left and

then the people will find out it was a total failure just as the soviet system collapsed. it wasn't because they decided to be peace, they went broke. i think that's what is going to happen to us and right now in the midst of this we're doing the bombing that you demonstrated but, you know where is the health of the state and when you have wars going on and constant war and terrorism, the war turned against the american people and that's why we have the attack on civil lib r -- liberties. there will be a problem in the libber erertyies and economic policy. i think these wars are needless, they are inmoral and hurt us. we ought to stop them and that's what ran's message is going to be this thursday. he has to try to challenge these other individuals because he's the only one anywhere close to that position so i expect that he will follow through. >> the bugle blowers are like

the guys in the beginning of "gone with the wind" so thrilled. let's look at the exchange you had with former new york major your and an early debate in 2008. let's watch. >> have you ever read about the reasons they attacked us? they attack us because we've been over there. we've been bombing iraq for ten years. >> are you suggesting we invited the 9/11 attack sir? >> i'm suggesting that we listen to the people they attacked us and the reason. >> may i comment on that? that's an extraordinary statement. an extraordinary statement as someone that lived through the attack of september 11 that we invited the attack because we were i tacking iraq. i've never heard that before and i've heard absurd explanations. >> it's cute and very national.

we settled 10,000 troops thanks to dick cheney and the holey land until 9/11. that we were the ones that defied the religion, humiliate it and it was the reason whether we like it or not, this is motive and they want to think about there might be -- you got to know what you're up against. anyway i don't understand this defiance of truth. >> and more people are recognizing this. i think giuliani last that little debate we had. somebody said i guess you have to quit. that was the beginning in '07 i think when that happened and giuliani never went anywhere and people were really negative on the war. they were negative on the war. >> you're the with the president on the nuclear deal with iran. that's containment as far as you're concerned rather than

war? >> right. i've always supported that and make the point that kennedy talked to him and the russians and yet we still, this deal this agreement, you know worked out with iran is far from perfect and nothing like i would do it but it's better than threatening them with bombs. never want to take anything off the table and i think that is just i'm moral to say if you don't go may way, we're going with a nuclear weapon. >> if the people watching like the way this man is thinking the name of his book swords in the plow shares what he's talking about tonight. ron paul sir, thank you for coming on the show with the difference with the trumpet blowers of the republican party. up next the restless heards, why members of both parties are unsettled about the front runners. what is so rested that is

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i'm page hopkins, here is what shaphappening. sean bolltonbolton's killer is in custody. thousands of people north of san francisco are forced to flee a massive fire that destroyed more than 20 homes, the fire nearly tripled in size over the weekend to about 84 square miles. in florida, torrential rain soaked tampa and the surrounding area flooding roads and washing away cars. as least 40 people had to be rescued from the rising waters. now we'll take you back to "hardball."

welcome back to "hardball" with 17 declared candidates in the republican field. jim gilmore joined. the race remains fluid on the republican side. the democratic contest may also be influx after "the new york times" reported that vice president joe biden is seriously considering jumping in. in other words, both of the herds are restless the cowboy moves, the herds restless a stampede. is anybody settled down on the 2016 election? 28% said we're headed in the right direction and 65% said we're head the in the wrong direction. so time for the "hardball" round table. senior political round reporter and columnist for the washington post and let's start with richard. you can all jump in here.

pick your party. i think it has a lot to do with the fact that only 28% less than one-third, less than three in ten think this country is going in the right direction. that's a profound statement. there is no joy to share. >> there is a swath across both parties, american people saying that there is issues going on in this country. we have to figure out how to deal and the candidate that can tap into those voters and say hey listen this is how we deal with it. here is my plan. that's the candidate that wins this election. >> can the establishment candidate be that person? the person running for class president running for office their whole lives, running the show since they were running the show come out and say we got to change things. who is going to listen to that? the bush family saying we got to change things? they are the way things are, the bushes. >> in the end watch that space. i suspect you're going to see at

least quzi winning both nominations. >> why? >> there is a degree that's the way the republican party behaves. >> is that their blanket they hang on to that smells like i'm used to. >> shaping up -- >> ridiculous. >> if joe biden gets into the race and gets the nomination. >> he's really in a establishment. >> exactly. >> let me -- >> he's been around since '72. >> let me make a point about the restlessness. there is restlessness and unhappiness with the direction of the country on both sides but also let's get a grip here and folks we're a year and a half before the election. >> you think it's going to be different a year and a half from now. >> settled on a candidate -- they don't like and they don't think anybody has their hand on the helm. >> but to the extend that's manifesting itself by reflections of not settling on

one candidate or another. first of all, what will we do for a living for the next 18 months? politics, we want to have that discussion discussion. >> explain donald trump and normal political times. >> donald trump and also bernie sanders are both tested on both sides. >> renowned. >> socialist. >> he says i'm a different political than your party historically and over here to the left and the party, i've never heard this before and win your presidential nomination and gets away with it because something out there says we don't like the main stream or what. >> i think this is biden's problem. you talk about biden a lot. he's in the main stream. he's not going to win the standard. they don't want a biden and hilary. they won't something different. that's the problem for biden to get in a little bit. >> the difference with joe biden, joe biden is this salt of the earth guy. put him in pennsylvania at a

rally and there is that whole arena is shaking. his ability to connect with people that a lot of candidates -- >> doesn't -- >> his vote -- >> he has done so well so well that he's -- >> sitting vice president so he's a sitting vice president where this president has a descent legacy the affordable care act and this new environment that came out today, he can run on that legacy and he can be real with the american people. that's what we expect. >> one grandpa finnegan and that stuff. >> i'd have him over trump. >> biden during the '60s, everybody wearing army fatigue jackets and long hair and beards, he said i wore a sports coat. [ laughter ] >> reeling at the notion of a biden trump face-off and who would talk the most in that? [ laughter ] >> oh tough. >> who would say the other guy had bad breath? that was amazing. [ laughter ] >> round table is sticking with

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windows 10. a more human way to do. amy schumer teamed up with her cousin ton call for gun safety reforms down in louisiana during a screening of amy

schumer's movie "train wreck." i saw it, too. >> for me the pain i share with so many other americans on the issue of gun violence was made extremely personal to me on thursday july 23rd. when -- i'm not even going to say his name when this he sat down for my movie "train wreck" in lafayette louisiana, two lives were tragically lost and others injured and i thought about these victims each day since the tragedy. preventing dangerous people from getting guns is very possible. we have common sense solutions. we can toughen background checks and stop the sale of firearms to folk whose have a violent history or history of mental illness. we can invest more in treating mental illness instead of slashing funding. these are not extreme ideas. >> turns out the comedian and senator for new york second cousins once removed. figure that one out. we'll be right back.

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we're back. the trade, health care same-sex marriage. and wildfires, record drought, president obama tackling the rapidly-changing climate.

>> levels of carbon dioxide are higher than they've been in 800,000 years. 2014 was the planet's warmest on record. we've seen stronger storms deeper droughts longer wildfire seasons. there is such a thing as being too late when it comes to climate change. power plants can still dump unlimited amounts of carbon pollution into the air. that has to change. after working with states cities, and power companies, the epa is setting the first-ever nationwide standards. >> how do you tell the frog in the pot it is getting hotter? that's what i think of all the

time. you and i have been here a while. it's a weird change. every day, we have this thunderstorm that strikes. august, it starts in may. the weather is different. the snowfall is igloo-like this year. it's different. 800,000 years, the hottest year on record last year. >> well, it depends if the frog is an republican presidential candidate. it's variable and there's inadequate evidence, scientists disagree, no they don't, about whether it's human-caused. >> is this off the record in the first fox debate? is it a bizarre discussion evolution, we shouldn't bring up

anything? >> i think they have to bring it up. >> i think chris will bring it up. >> well for any of the republican candidates to win, they have to talk to millan millennials. you look at these republican candidates clearly, they missed science. >> i hope you're right, but i don't think there's any evidence that republican presidential candidates, other than their little bit cautious stance on same-sex same-sex marriage. but i think this is an important

thing the president did today, but i think it will depend on the courts and the next president. >> and the koch brothers -- >> jeb bush said this weekend -- >> they don't want to hear about it. he said he would get rid of it immediately. i think this is an issue where, the tracking numbers on this issue and others president obama has been leading from the left and hillary -- >> she can't claim to be under educated either. >> she's pretty well educated. thank you. when we return, we'll finish with a handful of gems from the wall street journal that will make you very happy, i think. you're watching "hardball" on

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of gems in the new "wall street journal"/nbc poll. asks whether the united states is headed in the right direction, or if it's on the wrong track. well a piddling 28% think things are going swimmingly. 65% think it's the wrong track.

so, you have to wonder who the 28% are, we know who the 65% are, they're our neighbors. second, 2% don't know who donald trump is. third gem, which party would do a better job with the economy? 37%. the real republican edge is foreign policy 36%. expect to see the republican candidates punch hard on who can do a better job. and feelings toward hillary clinton -- the hillary is winning. fifth gem, looking over the list of people and organizations, and

how people view them donald trump, 26% positive. the republican porte, 28arty 28%. democratic party, 38%. supreme court, 39%. and the national rifle association, 43%. and planned parenthood 49%. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in" -- >> i don't have pollsters. i have to be me. >> debate week in america, as trump reaches new highs in the polls, a backlash to the